2024 NFL: Previewing Week 1

The 2024 NFL season begins this week, with Kansas City and San Francisco favored to have a Super Bowl rematch, and the Chiefs opening as the betting favorite to win a third consecutive Super Bowl.

Earlier this Summer we overviewed each Division:

NFC South
NFC East
NFC North
NFC West
AFC East
AFC South
AFC West
AFC North

Here we preview Week 1, and give our predictions for the season.

Week 1 Games

Ravens at Chiefs (KC – 3) The participants in last year’s AFC Championship game kick off the ’24 season.  The Ravens get to watch as the Chiefs unveil another Super Bowl title banner. If the Ravens win, it doesn’t erase the AFC Title loss.  If the Ravens lose, it doesn’t end this season. Both of these teams again have Super Bowl aspirations. The head-to-head match-up could eventually be a determinant in homefield advantage. Not sure there is a lot to discuss or analyze here.  Who makes unforced errors? Who wins on 3rd down? Who makes plays in the Red Zone?  KC doesn’t need this game. They figure to be back in the playoffs, and be a difficult out. A win would feel better than a loss for the Ravens, but a W in September isn’t the same as winning in January.

Packers vs. Eagles (Philadelphia -2.5): Two likely playoff teams beginning their seasons in Brazil.

Texans at Colts (Houston -2.5): A division game right out of the gate.  CJ Stroud had a rookie season for the ages.  Anthony Richardson’s rookie year ended prematurely.  Houston is expected to win the South. Indianapolis has supporters who think they’ll surprise. Getting the head-to-head divisional home is important if the Colts are to factor in the division. Curious to see how the pass attempts are distributed for the Texans.

Jaguars at Dolphins (Miami -3): Everyone’s last memory of Miami last year is the Dolphins literally freezing in the playoff loss at KC. The Jets and Bills are getting most of the discussion in the AFC East, but Miami remains capable. Right now, start of a season, where everyone is fresh, and you’ve got warm weather; that’s a team which can be tough to deal with. I’m entering the year kind of down on the Jags as I’m not high on the roster. Is Trevor Lawrence good enough to elevate everyone around him?

Vikings at Giants (Minnesota -1): Not a game which is going to excite anyone, but I’m at-least interested to see how Sam Darnold does. With JJ McCarthy done for the year, the Vikings QB job is Darnold’s. He has weapons around him. Minnesota doesn’t figure to be good enough to contend, but if Darnold is anywhere near average, they’ve got enough weapons to be an irritant to teams all season. Do Daniel Jones and Malik Nabors immediately connect?  I like the Giants pass rush.

Steelers at Falcons (Atlanta -3): I guess Russell Wilson is beginning the year as the Steelers QB.  I don’t expect him to end it.  Think Fields gives Pittsburgh more ways to win games.  The QB bar for Pittsburgh is very low after last year. If either Wilson of Fields is average, the defense is good enough to reach the playoffs. I think reaching the playoffs is their ceiling though. How physical does the Pittsburgh running game look? Atlanta’s offense should be a lot of fun to watch. Would expect Cousins to be productive.  The camp addition of Matthew Judon gave the Falcons defense a boost.

Titans at Bears (Chicago -4.5): I can’t recall a rookie QB who inherited the weapons that Caleb Williams has, but it’s not fair to expect him to match 2023 Stroud. The Titans have better weapons than you’d first think. Will Levis got his feet wet last year, how has he progressed here in Year 2?

Patriots at Bengals (Cincinnati -8.5):  After their 20 year run, don’t think anyone feels sorry for New England currently looking like a doormat. The Bengals think they are a Super Bowl contender, but the locker-room isn’t happy. Beginning their year with NE, gives Cincinnati a chance to ease into the year.

Cardinals at Bills (Buffalo -6): Is Arizona’s offense good? Is Buffalo still a contender?

Panthers at Saints (New Orleans -4): Does Bryce Young look better?

Broncos at Seahawks (Seattle -5.5): I liked the Bo Nix selection, but I dislike the team around him. Denver finding 8 wins last year was surprising to me. If they do that again, Nix and Sean Payton will have got more out of the surrounding roster than I anticipate. Seattle doesn’t have a great O-Line, but they’ve got plenty of weapons. This is a game the Seahawks need to win.

Raiders at LA Chargers (LA -3): Davante Adams figures to be traded soon.   I said in our write-up, I think Vegas is one of the lowest-ceiling, least interesting teams in the league. Expect the Chargers to get better as the year progresses, and potentially make the playoffs. Will be looking to see if they look more physical right away under Harbaugh.

Cowboys at Browns (Cleveland -2.5): Two fairly even teams, with the Browns and their defense favored at home. The biggest thing to takeaway in this game is how does DeShaun Watson look? I like the Browns roster better than Cincinnati, but I’ll take the Bengals to finish ahead of the Browns because of Burrow.  If Watson struggles out of the gate, how long until Jameis Winston is getting snaps?

Commanders at Bucs (Tampa Bay -3.5): Jayden Daniels begins his pro career. Feels to me like 7 or 8 wins is possible for DC, and this is a game they could steal.  If you are the Bucs, and you expect to get back to the playoffs, dropping this game would be a bad sign.

LA Rams at Lions (Detroit -3.5): Both teams were fun stories last year, and this was a 1 point game when they faced off in the playoffs last January. For the Lions, what does their pass rush opposite of Aidan Hutchinson look like?  Do they have enough pass rush outside of Aidan Hutchinson? How many touches does Jameson Williams get? For the Rams, what does their defense look like after Aaron Donald? Do the Rookie 1st and 2nd rounders from Florida State contribute right away? Offensively, is Cooper Kupp back to where he was prior to the ankle surgery?

Jets at 49ers (San Francisco -3.5): I love the Niners for the season, but not so much here in Week 1.  Trent Williams is holding out. Brandon Aiyuk just signed the contract, but missed camp.  After being shot, thankfully Rookie 1st rounder Ricky Pearsall appears like he will be ok; but SF doesn’t appear to have everything together as the year begins.  The Jets have a talented roster on both sides of the ball. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to be his former MVP self, for the Jets to be a contender. The NY hype is already loud. If they get the road W at SF to start their year, the noise out of NY is going to be deafening.

Season Picks: 

AFC East: Jets, Bills, Dolphins, Patriots
Think NY, Buffalo, and Miami can each reach the playoffs.
Think the Jets have better overall talent than Buffalo, but was tempted to pick Buffalo over the Jets – mainly because Josh Allen is 28, and Rodgers is 40.
Going with the Jets now, with the Bills losing Matt Milano to injury during camp partly pushing me to NY.

AFC South: Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Titans
It’s an interesting division top to bottom.  Houston is the only team which I think has a chance to be excellent, but any order of finish here wouldn’t be shocking.
The Colts to me look to have a better roster than Jacksonville, but I’d understand someone just believing in Lawrence.
Titans probably finish last, but they’ve got enough talent on the roster to bite teams if Levis steps up in Year 2.

AFC West: KC, LA Chargers, Denver, Las Vegas
Would be pretty shocking if the Chiefs didn’t win the division.
Chargers could be a playoff team, but I’d currently have them out.  Late in the year, probably won’t be a fun opponent for anyone.
Don’t like the Broncos roster, but I’ll guess now that Nix and Payton find a way to win a few more games than Vegas.

AFC North: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh
Every team is capable of making the playoffs.
Do like the Browns roster better than Cincinnati, but can’t take Watson / Winston over Burrow.
If Wilson / Fields are near average, that’s a huge upgrade for the Steelers from last year.
It’s been popular this off-season for people to pick Cincinnati over Baltimore, but I think the Ravens remain the division favorite.

AFC Playoff Teams: Jets, Houston, KC, Baltimore, Bills, Bengals, Dolphins

NFC East: Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington, New York
I like the Eagles roster, and think Dallas has regressed some.
Washington over New York feels like a coin flip. Could see either team winning 4 or 5 games, can also see either winning 8 or 9 games.
How do they do head to head?
Daniels can make the Commanders competitive in every game.
The Giants pass rush is good enough to steal games.

NFC South: Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Carolina
The Falcons have the highest ceiling.
Both the Bucs and Saints can get to the playoffs.

NFC West: San Francisco, LA Rams, Seattle, Arizona
This is a good division.
The 49ers will get past the current issues, and remain elite.
The Rams and Seahawks are good enough to make the playoffs.
Arizona’s offense is good enough to win a few games.

NFC North: Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, Minnesota
Another fun division.
Most people have the Lions winning, I think I like the Packers roster a bit better.
I think it’s unfair to place Stroud expectations on Williams, but if he’s good out the gate, he’s got the weapons for the Bears to have a big year.
Hard to see Minnesota not finishing last in the North, but there is some talent there.
What happens if Darnold is this year’s Geno Smith? A talented guy, left for dead, that suddenly puts it together?

NFC Playoff Teams: Philadelphia, Atlanta, San Francisco, Green Bay, Dallas, Rams, Detroit

Super Bowl:  Baltimore vs. San Francisco

DVOA isn’t everything, but by that metric both the ’23 Ravens and ’23 Niners had some of the best regular seasons ever last year.
And then they both lost to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, so what does that tell us?
I don’t think KC was a better team than the Ravens or Niners, but they have the rings.
I think you give congrats to the Chiefs.
They’ve been a very good team for sometime, and they’ve shown they can win in January.
I think this past year, they got hot at the right time, and if you don’t put your foot on their throat when you have the opportunity; they’ve got a championship mentality which will keep fighting.

A similar scenario could happen again this year.
I think Baltimore and San Francisco are the two most talented teams in the league.
That doesn’t mean either will win it all.
Going through the different divisions was a good exercise for me.
It’s known that there is a lot of parity throughout the game, but the difference between most teams is really thin.
I picked 7 playoff teams from each conference above, but you can craft playoff scenarios for another 3-4 teams in both conferences.
We will see which players emerge as difference makers.
We will see which teams suffer attrition they can’t get past.

Enjoy the season!