2024 NFL: Previewing Week 4

I’ve never been a fan of Washington, but I think you have to feel good for Commanders fans after the performance of Jayden Daniels last night in Cincinnati.

This is proud franchise, who had a fantastic fanbase before Dan Snyder’s Ownership limited Washington to two playoff wins in 24 years.

With Snyder in the rearview, and the enthusiasm which comes with believing you have a franchise QB; optimism amongst Commanders fans has to be at a decades level high.

Week 3 Quick Hits

Jets 24 Patriots 3 – New England was competitive the first two weeks, not so much in a short Week 3. The Jacoby Brissett era is rapidly coming to an end. Aaron Rodgers moved around well, Braelon Allen and Breece Hall combined for 27 carries, and 109 yards.  Six different Jets caught at-least 3 passes.  The only question which matters with the Jets going forward is how many games does Rodgers play?

Giants 21 Browns 15 – Deshaun Watson was sacked 8 times. The latest talk is that Nick Chubb is going to make half the season. Not much of a running game without him. What happened to the talk about the Browns having an elite defense? When does Jameis Winston replace Watson?

Packers 30 Titans 14 – Green Bay won a second consecutive game without Jordan Love.  That’s huge. Love was a game time decision Sunday, and should be expected back for Week 4.

Colts 21 Bears 16 – Anthony Richardson is as physically talented, and as raw as any QB I can remember. The Bears have a lot of weapons. They don’t have a lot of strong O-Lineman. Caleb Williams had 52 pass  attempts. Can the protect him at all?  Would help if they got a ground game going. RB D’Andre Swift has 68 yards on 37 attempts so far this year. The Colts got their first W.  They had 4 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, and 2 picks.

Vikings 34 Texans 7 – You could have convinced me that Minnesota would win at home; but controlling Houston? Didn’t see that coming. CJ Stroud was sacked 4 times, and had 2 picks. Sam Darnold threw 4 more TD’s. Cam Akers had 9 carries for 21 yards for the Texans. Stefon Diggs had 10 catches, but only averaged 9.4 yards per reception. After spending the last four years with the Texans, Vikings LB Jonathan Greenard had 3 sacks against his former team.

Eagles 15 Saints 12 – New Orleans came back to Earth, and missed an opportunity to get to 3-0. Philadelphia was held scoreless until the 4th. They had huge games from Saquon Barkley, and Dallas Goedert; which was needed because Philadelphia HC Nick Sirianni tried to give the game away.  Saints DT Bryan Bresee (2023 1st rounder), had 2 more sacks and looks like he is in for a big year.

Steelers 20 Chargers 10 – Pittsburgh moved to 3-0, and Chargers QB Justin Herbert had to leave early.  Herbert was a game time decision. Maybe he should have been held back? Steelers RB Najee Harris is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry on 55 attempts so far this year. Pittsburgh needs another pass catching option behind WR George Pickens, and TE Pat Freiermuth. Is Calvin Austin ready to emerge? He had 4 catches for 95 yards, including a 55 yard grab. Pittsburgh’s defense is playing a very high level, 5 more sacks for the Steelers.

Broncos 26 Buccaneers 7 – Tampa Bay wins their first two games, and then falls behind 17-0 to Denver at home. That’s pretty disappointing. Bo Nix has yet to throw a TD, but he extends plays, and being ready to go on the road and get an unexpected win bodes well for Denver being a bit more competitive than maybe first expected. Former Raven Tyler Badie had 70 yards on 9 carries. Including Nix’s totals, the Broncos had 136 rushing yards. Baker Mayfield had 33 attempts, but Mike Evans was limited to 3 targets. That doesn’t seem ideal.

Panthers 36 Raiders 22 – Okay, I know the Raiders were without Maxx Crosby (who destroyed the Ravens), and that the Panthers had made the change to the Red Rifle (Andy Dalton). But, really Vegas? That’s total lack of preparation and focus. On the other-hand, Carolina was clearly excited to have some basic competency at QB.

Seahawks 24 Dolphins 3 – Seattle did what they should have done against Skylar Thompson.

Ravens 28 Cowboys 25 – I wrote about the Ravens win here.  From the Cowboys perspective, I think Dallas can still get to the playoffs. Maybe should even be expected to. But how can you expect them do anything in the post-season with a roster that can’t run, or stop the run?

Rams 27 49ers 24 – Another score I didn’t anticipate. Knew the Rams would be without their star WR’s.  Knew SF was obviously still going to be without Christian McCaffrey, but didn’t realize Deebo Samuel and George Kittle weren’t going to be available. Still, give credit to Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay for finding a way to get the W here. I’m not worried about San Francisco at all. They’ll get their guys back, and they’ll be a very difficult out.

Lions 20 Cardinals 13 – I thought Detroit was the better team, and would get the road W.  I was curious to see how Arizona played, and if they would show capable of being a good team at home. Hard to pull and upset when you are 1 of 9 on 3rd down.

Chiefs Falcons 17 – I hate how every team which plays KC outsmarts themselves. Take the points when you have the opportunity. Had to be disappointing for Falcons fans that Bijan Robinson was limited to 31 yards on 16 carries. Falcons Owner Arthur Blank placing himself in the Falcons Ring of Honor is both hilarious, and probably a good indication of why Atlanta struggles to find consistent success as an organization. If the guy at the top has that lack of awareness, there has to be other things which fall through the cracks.

Bills 47 Jaguars 10 – Josh Allen is elite, Trevor Lawrence is not.  What makes one elite? Consistency, and the ability to elevate others. Everything wrong with Jacksonville right now, is not fully on Lawrence, but he’s not bringing up the guys around him. The Bills are moving the ball around without Diggs, and the defense is better than I thought.  Good line play on both sides.

Commanders 38 Bengals 33 – Certainly respect Joe Burrow, but I didn’t love the Bengals entering the year, and grew tired of all of the National talk which was anointing Cincinnati as the Chiefs primary competition. Only one team has made the playoffs since 2000 after starting 0-3. Burrows good enough, that I think it’s possible. Also this is only Year 4 of the 17 game schedule, which I would think alters the odds some. Have to expect Cincinnati to get win number 1 this week at Carolina.  Baltimore will come to Cincinnati Oct. 6th with a chance to make the Bengals 1-4.

Week 4 Games

Thursday September 26th

Dallas at New York Giants – The Giants aren’t going to run the ball like the Ravens, but I am curious to see how Daniel Jones and Malik Nabers do against the Cowboys.  I’m also curious to see how Dallas’ Offensive Line holds up against the Giants legitimately good pass rush. This is a game Dallas expects to win, and it’s a disaster if they don’t.

Sunday September 29th

New Orleans at Atlanta – Two NFC South teams which missed opportunities this past weekend. Both have enough talent to be playoff teams, and potentially win a game. Atlanta needing the game more being at home, and already having two home losses.

LA Rams at Chicago – It’s a near pick’em game here. Chicago has lots of skill position talent, but as we said above their O-Line and rushing game has not been good.  Maybe their approach right now is that they believe they have to throw the ball around to open up the run game? I’d go with the opposite approach, go with larger sets, and commit to running the ball. Set-up play action, and put Williams in better position. With Daniels breaking out last night for DC, there will be increasing focus on Williams to do the same. It’s another game that Stafford and McVay might be able to steal with an experienced talented QB, and quality scheming.

Minnesota at Green Bay – The 3-0 Vikings facing the 2-1 Packers in an NFC North battle.  Jordan Love should be back.  The Vikings and Darnold have been a good story. It looks like Jordan Addison will be back for Minnesota. If I’m the Vikings, I’d be giving former Packer Aaron Jones plenty of touches. I like Green Bay here.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis – I don’t think this game bodes well for Richardson and the Colts.  Indianapolis can’t have Richardson regularly dropping back to pass here. 1, 2, and out. Run. Jonathan Taylor is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Steelers should get to 4-0.

Denver at New York Jets – Back to back road games for Denver.  The Jets coming off the mini-bye. I’d expect the Jets to control the game here.

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay – Back to back road games for Philly.  Another NFC South opponent.  Sunday was pretty ugly for both teams, but the Eagles found a way to win, while the Bucs got housed by a mediocre at best Broncos team.  One team gets to 3-1.  ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor gives the Eagles a 61.2% chance of winning.

Cincinnati at Carolina – Imagine the headlines if Bengals were to lose to their former QB (Dalton).

Jacksonville at Houston – The Jags are 0-3, on a short-week, and now have to face the best team in their Division. Stroud and the Texans should get right after a poor showing in Minnesota.

DC at Arizona – The Commanders are 2-1 after their win last night. This is another winnable game. The most important thing is that you want to see Daniels show he can be consistent week-to-week. Make the right decisions, and give DC a legitimate chance to win.  For Arizona, they are facing a Commanders team that’s pretty weak defensively. It’s one thing for them not to be ready to beat Detroit, but Arizona is going to take any positive strides this year, they need to beat DC at home.

New England at San Francisco – The Niners are 9.5 point favorites here. That’s a huge line in the NFL.  Does SF get some of their guys back this week? Do they hold them back, thinking they can beat the Patriots with the B team? I’m figuring Drake Maye will get the start vs. Miami next week. Does he come in at halftime here?

Cleveland at Las Vegas – The Browns came into the year believing they were a contender. Cleveland has two home losses already. Their win was at Jacksonville. Vegas is actually a 1 point favorite here. Again, Watson was sacked 8 times vs. the Giants. Can Crosby can go this week for Vegas?

Kansas City at LA Chargers – This will become a better game in-time as Harbaugh builds a more physical Chargers team. But right now you are looking at a game where Herbert’s status is up in the air. He’ll probably give it a go, but how many snaps does he have? He’s also not going to have 1st Round pick OT Joe Alt (MCL) available to block for him.

Buffalo at Baltimore – ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor has the Bills with a 56.7% chance of winning in Baltimore.  Vegas has the Ravens as 2.5 point favorites.  2 MVP caliber QB’s.  An opportunity for the Ravens to get to .500 at 2-2, and get a W against a quality conference opponent. These are teams which could face each other again in January. Buffalo has a good DL, but you have to keep running Derrick Henry at them.

Monday September 30th

Tennessee at Miami – That’s an ugly game. Will Levis has to calm down the turnovers.

Seattle at Detroit – The 3-0 Seahawks vs. the 2-1 Lions.  I’m buying Seattle as a potential playoff team, but I’d still be surprised to see them ultimately win the West. Win this game in Detroit, and you’d have to consider Seattle a threat overall in the NFC.  The Lions 2x 2nd Team All-Pro Center Frank Ragnow has a partially torn pectoral muscle. Vegas has Detroit as a 3.5 point favorite, and ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor is giving the Lions a 61.9% chance of getting the home win.