Two court decisions came down in the season’s first week. One sent Arizona’s starting power forward to the bench for good. The other gave Kansas a sixth-year Big Ten star who is shooting 85% from the field.
That is where the season stands. The judges have stopped previewing the season and started grading it. In October, eligibility was a question every ranking had to hedge. Now it is an answer, and teams are moving on it.
RJ Godfrey’s lawsuit for a fifth year was denied. Arizona, a Final Four team last season, opened with an 84-75 loss to UCLA and made one three-pointer in the first half. Trey Kaufman-Renn’s request for a sixth year, after four seasons at Purdue, was granted for now. He is 11-of-13 through two games, and Kansas has climbed to fifth in KenPom and second in Torvik.
The pattern runs down the list. Texas Tech got Donovan Atwell and Darrion Williams. Gonzaga got Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett. St. John’s got Quinn Ellis from the NCAA and Keyshawn Hall from a judge, and Hall scored 26 in his debut. More of these cases have gone the players’ way than against them, and every one of them can still be reversed on appeal.
Meanwhile, the teams with nothing in court have done what they were expected to do. Duke is first in both KenPom and Torvik and has passed Florida as the betting favorite. Florida is still No. 1 in both polls. Illinois scored 120 in its opener.
The next eight days test all of it. Tuesday brings Duke and Michigan State in the Champions Classic, Kansas and Kentucky in the nightcap, Illinois at Texas Tech and Florida at Florida State. A week later, Illinois visits Duke and Michigan State goes to Tennessee.
One week in, here is what we’ve seen and where we think it’s going.
Quick Hits
No. 9 Virginia 91, No. 12 Arkansas 72 (Washington, Nov. 8th). The most convincing win by anyone so far. Virginia started its four returning starters, made 12 threes, shot 46% and led by 27. Thijs De Ridder had 16 and 10. It was Virginia’s first win over an AP top-15 team since November 2023 and its biggest margin over a ranked opponent since 2021. Arkansas, picked third in the SEC by CBS’s panel, has lost four straight to AP top-10 teams.
Valparaiso over Purdue in double overtime (West Lafayette). It left Purdue 0-2 for the first time since 1976-77 and dropped out of both polls. Losing to Gonzaga was fine. Losing at home to Valparaiso was not.
Memphis 89, VCU 88 (Nov. 7th). Jayden Reid scored 32 with 7 assists, a week after his 26 beat Iowa State. Memphis received the most votes of any unranked team in the AP poll and plays at Vanderbilt on Nov. 10.
UCLA 84, No. 5 Arizona 75 (Las Vegas, Nov. 2nd). The first loss by a preseason top-five team, and it came days after RJ Godfrey’s eligibility lawsuit was denied. Arizona made 1 of 13 threes in the first half and trailed 43-29 at the break. Ivan Kharchenkov scored a career-high 38 with 10 rebounds and got Arizona within a point with 3:11 left. UCLA’s bench outscored Arizona’s 17-4 in the first half, which is the story of the matchup: the Bruins have depth and Arizona doesn’t anymore.
No. 4 UConn 85, No. 16 Michigan 77 (Boston, Nov. 6th). The title-game rematch went the other way. Braylon Mullins scored 23 and made 10 of 11 free throws; Silas Demary Jr. added 21 and freshman Colben Landrew 14 off the bench. Michigan gave away too much: 11 turnovers in the first half and a 7-of-28 night from three. Dan Hurley briefly walked onto the floor after a bench technical late in the first half; his team then closed the half on an 11-2 run.
No. 1 Florida 77, No. 14 Miami 67 (Tampa, Nov. 2nd). Thomas Haugh had 19 points, 10 rebounds and no turnovers, and made 4 of 8 threes, which is the one number Florida fans will care about. Rueben Chinyelu had 14 rebounds. Miami got within two early in the second half, then went five minutes without a field goal. The game had two technicals and three fouls upgraded to flagrant.
Memphis 80, No. 18 Iowa State 76 (Sioux Falls, Nov. 2nd). Northwestern transfer Jayden Reid scored 11 of his 26 in the final three minutes. Iowa State tied it at 69 and couldn’t finish. The Cyclones will be without Killyan Toure until January.
Gonzaga 78, Purdue 72 (Las Vegas, Nov. 2nd). Davis Fogle scored 22 for a Gonzaga team that now has Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett eligible. Purdue started 0-2 and is unranked for the first time in 80 weeks.
BYU 94, Ohio State 83 (Salt Lake City, Nov. 2nd). Robert Wright III scored 35. With AJ Dybantsa gone, this is now Wright’s team, and he has played like it.
East Texas A&M over Oklahoma (Nov. 2-4th). Oklahoma was a 28.5-point favorite. ESPN calls it the second-largest upset by point spread in 30 years.
No. 17 Kansas 89, Middle Tennessee 45 (Nov. 6th). Trey Kaufman-Renn scored 17 in 18 minutes and is 11 of 13 through two games. Kansas shot 63%, held Middle Tennessee to 25% and got 46 points from its bench.
Georgetown 86, Maryland 74 (Washington, Nov. 7th). Georgetown made 15 of 30 threes; Maryland made 3 of 20. More in the Maryland section below.
Elsewhere at the top, nobody was tested. Duke beat Army by 34, Illinois beat Fairleigh Dickinson by 75, Texas beat Chicago State by 50 and Michigan State beat Quinnipiac by 37.
Nebraska 67, Providence 58 (Uncasville, Nov. 7th). Pryce Sandfort scored 25, and Nebraska entered the AP poll at No. 25. It was the Huskers’ 24th straight regular-season non-conference win, a program record.
USC 93, Wichita State 86 (Nov. 8th). Rodney Rice scored 32 with 9 assists and Alijah Arenas added 30, the first time two Trojans have each scored 30 in a game since 2015. The rest of the roster scored 31 combined, which is the USC question in one box score.
Kansas loses Melvin Council Jr. (Nov. 9th). The starting guard broke his right foot in practice and is expected back around the start of Big 12 play. More in the rankings below.
Monday’s tune-ups (Nov. 9th). Nobody ranked was tested. UConn beat Wagner 83-41 behind Silas Demary Jr.’s 18 points and six steals. Texas beat Grambling 93-62 as Matas Vokietaitis had 26 and 9. Alabama beat Oakland 109-68, with London Jemison scoring 20. Tennessee beat Radford 70-47 behind Terrence Hill Jr.’s 18, and Miami beat North Florida 89-51 with 16 from Malik Reneau.
Corrections And Updates
What the Oct. 12 preview said that has changed, and what has held up.
- Iowa State’s Tamin Lipsey: the preview listed him as waiting on a fifth year. A court has since ruled him eligible, though the NCAA is expected to appeal.
- UConn’s Solo Ball: the preview said he would redshirt. CBS now reports he is expected back at some point this season; ESPN still lists him as redshirting. We’ll treat it as open.
- Texas Tech’s JT Toppin: the preview said only that he wasn’t expected to start the season. The target is now mid-December to around Christmas.
- Iowa State’s Killyan Toure: the shoulder injury will keep him out until January.
- Illinois’s David Mirkovic: out for the first couple of weeks with the foot injury, per CBS.
What has held up: the eligibility thesis, which ran the whole preview, has been the story of the first two weeks. Our chalk Final Four’s top three (Duke, Florida, Illinois) are the top three almost everywhere. And our bet on Houston over the polls is now the consensus of both models.
Top 20 Power Rankings
Records through Nov. 9. “Move” is the change from our Oct. 12 preseason Top 20.
| # | Team | Record | Move | What we’ve seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 2-0 | Up 1 | First in KenPom and Torvik. Beat Coastal Carolina 113-52 behind Patrick Ngongba II’s 28. Three projected top-17 picks plus Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, the 2028 No. 1 favorite |
| 2 | Florida | 2-0 | Down 1 | Beat Miami and Jacksonville. Still No. 1 in both polls, with 53 of 60 first-place AP votes. Perimeter shooting is still the question |
| 3 | Illinois | 2-0 | — | 232 points in two games, a Big Ten record. Playing without David Mirkovic and Jake Davis |
| 4 | Kansas | 2-0 | Up 9 | Kaufman-Renn is 11-of-13 and the bench outscored Middle Tennessee by itself. But starting guard Melvin Council Jr. broke his foot Nov. 9 and may be out until January |
| 5 | Houston | 2-0 | Up 3 | KenPom’s No. 1 defense. Dedan Thomas Jr. had 20 and 8 against Cal |
| 6 | UConn | 3-0 | Down 1 | Beat Michigan 85-77, then Wagner 83-41. UConn has 33 wins over AP Top 25 teams since 2022-23, the most in Division I |
| 7 | Virginia | 3-0 | — | Beat Arkansas 91-72 in Washington and led by 27. Up to sixth in the AP poll |
| 8 | Michigan State | 2-0 | Down 2 | Fears 13 and 11 in the opener; freshman Jasiah Jervis 16 vs. Toledo. The center spot is still the question |
| 9 | Texas | 3-0 | — | Eighth in KenPom, 18th in Torvik. Vokietaitis had 26 and 9 in a 93-62 win over Grambling |
| 10 | Arizona | 1-1 | Down 6 | Lost Godfrey to a court ruling and lost to UCLA. Krivas had 30 vs. Cal Poly |
| 11 | Gonzaga | 2-0 | Up 8 | 11th in KenPom and ninth in Torvik after beating Purdue and New Mexico State. Lee and Bennett are cleared for now |
| 12 | Louisville | 2-0 | Down 2 | Scored 33 straight points in a 107-57 win over Morehead State. Obinna Ekezie Jr. 20 and 13 |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | 2-0 | New | KenPom’s seventh-best team. Beat Wake Forest 74-51 |
| 14 | Iowa State | 1-1 | Up 4 | Lost 80-76 to Memphis and fell out of the AP poll, but KenPom has the Cyclones 14th and Torvik 12th |
| 15 | Nebraska | 2-0 | New | Beat Providence 67-58 behind Sandfort’s 25. Entered the AP poll at No. 25 |
| 16 | Texas Tech | 2-0 | — | Atwell, Williams and now Jamichael Stillwell are eligible. Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn 25 vs. Bethune-Cookman. Toppin’s target is mid-December |
| 17 | Tennessee | 2-0 | Down 6 | Two lopsided exhibition losses, then wins over Wofford (90-59) and Radford (70-47). Still 11th in the AP poll |
| 18 | Alabama | 3-0 | Up 2 | Fifth-best offense in KenPom at the fastest tempo. Amari Allen had a triple-double vs. Arkansas State; 109 points vs. Oakland |
| 19 | UCLA | 2-0 | New | Beat Arizona, then North Florida 114-63 with Nikola Kusturica scoring 29. Up 13 spots to No. 9 in the AP poll |
| 20 | Arkansas | 1-1 | Down 6 | Lost 91-72 to Virginia; Jordan Smith Jr. was 8-of-17. Fourth straight loss to an AP top-10 team |
1. Duke (2-0, up 1). The move to No. 1 isn’t about anything Florida did wrong. It’s that every measure we trust now points the same way. Duke is first in KenPom and Torvik, first in the Bilas Index, and the betting favorite. The rating KenPom gave Duke in the preseason was the highest in the system’s history, and two games in it has gone up. The roster is the reason: John Blackwell, Patrick Ngongba II, Dame Sarr and Caleb Foster back or arriving, Cameron Williams off the bench, and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, who at 17 already looks like a starter on a title team. Jon Scheyer’s two previous teams were great in November and lost late in March. This one is deeper than both. Ngongba scored 28 against Coastal Carolina. Michigan State on Tuesday and Illinois next week will show how much the depth matters against good teams.
2. Florida (2-0, down 1). Nothing went wrong in Tampa. Thomas Haugh was the best player on the floor against Miami, Rueben Chinyelu had 14 rebounds and the Gators held a feisty in-state opponent without a field goal for five minutes when it mattered. They are second because Duke is first, and they get the head-to-head answer at home on Dec. 1. The question we raised in October still stands: Florida shot 31.2% from three last season, and Haugh’s 4-of-8 night is one game.
3. Illinois (2-0, no change). A 120-point game against Fairleigh Dickinson proves only that the offense works when it’s supposed to. It does point to something, though: Illinois is first in KenPom’s offensive ratings without David Mirkovic, its best player, who is still working back from foot surgery, and without sharpshooting wing Jake Davis. The 232 points in two games are a Big Ten record. Stefan Vaaks and Quentin Coleman have to hold up in the backcourt until he returns. The road trips to Texas Tech (Nov. 10) and Duke (Nov. 17) are where we’ll learn how much. So far, freshman Quentin Coleman is shooting 85% on twos and Stojakovic has 45 points in 24 minutes.
4. Kansas (2-0, up 9). The biggest climber in our top 20, and the reason is three court orders. Tre White and Melvin Council Jr. are two starters back for a fifth year, and Trey Kaufman-Renn is a sixth-year Big Ten forward who has missed two shots in two games. Put them around Tyran Stokes and Kansas has the experience Bill Self has lacked the past three seasons, plus the No. 1 recruit. Torvik has the Jayhawks second in the country. Then came the first setback that had nothing to do with a courtroom: Council broke the fifth metatarsal in his right foot in practice on Nov. 9, needs surgery, and Self hopes to have him back around the start of Big 12 play. Council started both games and averaged 12.7 points and 5.1 assists last season. CBS expects Kansas to go bigger without him, with Keanu Dawes, Stokes and Kaufman-Renn together. Kansas holds at fourth because of what the rest of the roster has shown, but the margin is thinner. The other asterisk hasn’t gone away: if any of the remaining court orders is reversed, Kansas drops faster than anyone else on this list. Kentucky in Chicago on Tuesday is the first look at the bigger lineup.
5. Houston (2-0, up 3). We had Houston eighth in October, when CBS had the Cougars 14th and ESPN 18th, and the models have moved our way: KenPom third, Torvik sixth. The defense is the No. 1 unit in KenPom again, with Joseph Tugler and Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie inside. Dedan Thomas Jr. had 16 in his debut. The offense will decide whether this is a top-two seed, as it does every year under Kelvin Sampson.
6. UConn (3-0, down 1). The win over Michigan was the most impressive result by any of the title contenders: a neutral-floor win over the defending champion, with Braylon Mullins and Silas Demary Jr. combining for 44 points and a freshman, Colben Landrew, adding 14. We moved UConn down a spot only because Kansas and Houston moved past. KenPom has the Huskies ninth and Torvik eighth, lower than we do. Monday’s 83-41 win over Wagner, with Demary scoring 18 and adding six steals, was a tune-up for Ohio State on Friday. Dan Hurley’s March record is why we don’t follow them there.
7. Virginia (3-0, no change). The Cavaliers answered the question we asked of them. They beat Arkansas 91-72 in Washington, made 12 threes, led by 27 and won with the four returners who scored 69 of 97 against Northeastern. Thijs De Ridder had 16 and 10. CBS’s Gary Parrish notes that Ryan Odom built this roster without a top-30 payroll, by keeping his best players rather than buying new ones. The AP has Virginia sixth and Torvik has them fourth; KenPom, 16th before the Arkansas game, has since moved them up to 10th. Johann Grunloh is playing on an injured right ankle. Bucknell is Tuesday, then a trip to College Park on Friday.
8. Michigan State (2-0, down 2). Jeremy Fears Jr. had 13 points and 11 assists in the opener and is on pace to lead the country in assists again. Michigan State is sixth in KenPom and has the best point guard in the country. The question is still the center position, with Anton Bonke replacing Carson Cooper. Duke on Nov. 10 and at Tennessee on Nov. 17 will answer it quickly. Freshman Jasiah Jervis scored 16 against Toledo.
9. Texas (3-0, no change). Matas Vokietaitis scored 22 in the opener and 26 against Grambling on Monday, and looks like an All-SEC center. The models split hard on Texas: eighth in KenPom, 18th in Torvik. We’re closer to KenPom, because the talent is undeniable, but a roster this new still has to show it can defend together. Mikey Lewis is still out with a foot injury.
10. Arizona (1-1, down 6). In October we wrote that Arizona’s title case rested on one ruling for one power forward. The ruling went against RJ Godfrey, and the loss to UCLA showed why it mattered. Arizona was 1-of-13 from three in the first half and had almost no bench. Ivan Kharchenkov’s 38 points are a reason not to drop the Wildcats further, and Torvik still has them seventh. But the November schedule doesn’t wait: at Auburn, UConn at home, then Maui.
11. Gonzaga (2-0, up 8). The biggest riser outside Kansas. In October, three Gonzaga guards were waiting on courts; Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett are now eligible. The frontcourt of Braden Huff and Massamba Diop was always the strength, and Davis Fogle scored 22 against Purdue. KenPom has the Zags 11th and Torvik ninth.
12. Louisville (2-0, down 2). Flory Bidunga had 16 and 9 against Chattanooga and looks like the best interior defender in the ACC. Seth Trimble is still waiting on a ruling. The two models disagree by seven spots: Torvik 11th, KenPom 18th. We’ll learn plenty on Dec. 1 against Texas and Dec. 12 at Kentucky.
13. Vanderbilt (2-0, new). We left Vanderbilt out in October. KenPom has the Commodores seventh, the biggest gap between any model and the polls. Tyler Tanner had 20 and 6 in a 46-point opener, and the transfer group of Ace Glass, Bangot Dak and Berke Buyuktuncel has fit around him. The schedule ahead is a good test of whether the rating is real: Memphis, at Ohio State, at Notre Dame and at Cal.
14. Iowa State (1-1, up 4). The loss to Memphis was close, on a neutral floor, without Killyan Toure, and the models still have the Cyclones 14th (KenPom) and 12th (Torvik). Tamin Lipsey is playing under a ruling the NCAA is expected to appeal. Iowa State’s defense is eighth in KenPom.
15. Nebraska (2-0, new). We listed Nebraska as a team we liked better than the projections in October. KenPom has the Huskers 15th and Torvik 13th. Pryce Sandfort opened with 20. The defense was supposed to drop off after losing four of its best defenders; KenPom has it ninth so far.
16. Texas Tech (2-0, no change). Donovan Atwell and Darrion Williams are eligible, and Jamichael Stillwell has since been cleared to return under a temporary restraining order from a Lubbock judge. Atwell’s trial isn’t until June, so he likely plays the whole season. Cruz Davis and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn give the Red Raiders scoring until JT Toppin returns, targeted for mid-December. If Toppin is himself by January, this ranking is too low.
17. Tennessee (2-0, down 6). The biggest faller still in our 20. Tennessee lost exhibitions to Xavier by 16 and Duke by 39, and Bilas left the Vols out of his 64 entirely. They have since beaten Wofford 90-59 and Radford 70-47, with Terrence Hill Jr. scoring 18 on Monday, and the models have them 23rd (KenPom) and 19th (Torvik). Rick Barnes built this roster for offense. The question is whether he gave up too much defense to get it. Michigan State visits Nov. 17, and Maryland waits in Las Vegas a week later.
18. Alabama (3-0, up 2). KenPom’s fifth-best offense at the fastest pace in the country, which is exactly what an Alabama team under Nate Oats looks like. Aden Holloway was cleared to return Nov. 9 after sitting out the first two games. Drew Fielder had 15 in the opener, and Amari Allen had 16 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists against Arkansas State, the fourth triple-double in program history. On Monday, London Jemison scored 20 in a 109-68 win over Oakland.
19. UCLA (2-0, new). The best win in the country so far. UCLA beat Arizona on a neutral floor with its bench and with Trent Perry’s 21. Mick Cronin’s teams usually defend and rarely shoot; this one has shooters. Then Nikola Kusturica, 17 years old, scored 29 against North Florida. The AP jumped UCLA 13 spots to ninth. KenPom has them 16th, and we’re more cautious still: one great win is one great win.
20. Arkansas (1-1, down 6). The loss to Virginia was a 19-point beating on a neutral floor, and Arkansas has now lost four straight to AP top-10 teams. Jordan Smith Jr. was 8-of-17. Jeremiah Wilkinson scored 23 in the opener and the freshmen have the talent to grow into this. But Bilas had Arkansas eighth, Torvik has them 27th and KenPom 28th, and after Sunday we’re much closer to Torvik. Michigan State on Thanksgiving in Detroit is the next real test.
Next five: Miami (2-1, Torvik 16th), Michigan (1-1), BYU (Robert Wright III scored 35 vs. Ohio State), St. John’s and Kentucky.
Who fell out: Michigan (12th in October), St. John’s (15th) and Miami (17th). Michigan’s frontcourt rebuild looks exactly as hard as it sounded, and KenPom has the Wolverines 30th. St. John’s has the talent, and both models moved the Red Storm up after a 104-65 win over Iona: KenPom to 19th, Torvik from 31st to 14th. They’re the first team we’d add back. But they led Monmouth by only 12 with nine minutes left.
The Outside Check
AP and Coaches are the Nov. 9 polls; CBS is its daily Top 25 And 1 from Nov. 10; KenPom and Torvik are through Nov. 9; Bilas is his Nov. 5 Index.
| Team | BSL | AP | Coaches | CBS | KenPom | Torvik | Bilas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Florida | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Illinois | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Kansas | 4 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| Houston | 5 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| UConn | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| Virginia | 7 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| Michigan State | 8 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 10 |
| Texas | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 7 |
| Arizona | 10 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 4 |
| Gonzaga | 11 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
| Louisville | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 11 | 15 |
| Vanderbilt | 13 | 22 | 19 | 24 | 7 | 20 | 16 |
| Iowa State | 14 | NR | 23 | NR | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| Nebraska | 15 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 15 | 13 | 21 |
| Texas Tech | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 17 |
| Tennessee | 17 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 23 | 19 | NR |
| Alabama | 18 | 18 | 16 | 20 | 12 | 22 | 18 |
| UCLA | 19 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 20 |
| Arkansas | 20 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 28 | 27 | 8 |
The top three are settled: every system has Duke, Florida and Illinois in its top four. Below that, three gaps stand out.
Kansas and Houston are better than the polls think. The AP has Kansas 15th; both models have the Jayhawks top five. The AP has Houston eighth and CBS 12th; KenPom has the Cougars third. Melvin Council Jr.’s broken foot gives the polls a fair reason to hold back on Kansas. We still side with the models on both.
The polls like UCLA and Tennessee more than anyone else does. The AP put UCLA ninth after the Arizona win; we have the Bruins 19th and Torvik has them 17th. The coaches have Tennessee ninth, the AP 11th; KenPom has the Vols 23rd and Bilas left them out entirely. Vanderbilt is the reverse: KenPom seventh, AP 22nd.
Virginia settled its argument; Texas hasn’t. Before Sunday, Virginia was sixth in Torvik and 16th in KenPom. After beating Arkansas by 19, the AP and coaches both have the Cavaliers sixth, KenPom has moved them up to 10th and Torvik to fourth. Texas is still eighth in KenPom and 18th in Torvik, and its first possible game against a ranked team is UCLA in San Diego on Nov. 27.
Best Vs. Most Accomplished
The power rankings answer who would win on a neutral floor. This answers a different question: who has actually beaten somebody. Two weeks in, those are almost entirely different lists.
| Most accomplished | Best win (opponent’s KenPom rank) | KenPom rank |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia | Arkansas (28), by 19 | 10 |
| UCLA | Arizona (13) | 16 |
| Memphis | Iowa State (14); also VCU (56) | 73 |
| Florida | Miami (22) | 2 |
| BYU | Ohio State (31) | 21 |
| UConn | Michigan (30) | 9 |
| Gonzaga | Purdue (36) | 11 |
| Nebraska | Providence (52) | 15 |
Opponent and team ranks are KenPom through Nov. 9.
Only three of KenPom’s top 10 have beaten a top-50 team, and none has beaten a top-10 team. Duke, Houston, Illinois and Kansas are ranked on talent and margin against weak opponents. That changes fast: Duke plays Michigan State on Nov. 10 and Illinois on Nov. 17.
The Bracket
We’re projecting forward from two games of evidence and four weeks of eligibility news. That is thin, so these lean on the models and the rosters more than the results.
Projected No. 1 seeds: Duke, Florida, Illinois and Kansas. Three are holdovers from our preseason Final Four. Kansas replaces Arizona.
ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology agrees on three of the four. It has UConn on the top line instead of Kansas, which it puts on the 2-line with Virginia, Michigan State and Houston. Its bids by league: SEC 12, Big 12 11, Big Ten 11, ACC 7, Big East 5.
Final Four odds (ours):
| Team | Final Four % | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Duke | 32% | Best roster, best rating, and the depth to survive an off night in March |
| Florida | 28% | The best frontcourt in the country; the shooting decides whether it’s a title team or a regional final team |
| Illinois | 22% | The best offense in the sport, with Mirkovic still to come back |
| Kansas | 18% | The ceiling is a title. The floor is a court reversing one of three orders |
| Houston | 17% | Kelvin Sampson’s floor is a second weekend; the offense decides the rest |
| UConn | 16% | Dan Hurley’s March record is the case. Solo Ball’s possible return is the upside |
| Michigan State | 14% | Fears is the best point guard in the country. Can the center spot hold up? |
| Texas | 11% | The most talent outside the top six, still sorting out roles |
| Arizona | 10% | Defense travels; a half-court offense without Godfrey may not |
| Virginia | 10% | Shoots at all five spots. Needs a win over a ranked team to back the Torvik number |
Our top 20 combine for about 2.4 of the four spots; the rest belongs to the field.
Our Final Four, revised: Duke, Florida, Illinois, Kansas. In October we picked Arizona for the fourth spot. The Godfrey ruling is the reason for the change, not the UCLA loss.
Five Things We’ve Learned
1. Duke has the best team, and the numbers say so loudly. KenPom’s preseason rating for Duke was the highest in the system’s history, and two games in it has gone up, to +34.84. The Blue Devils beat Army by 34 with three projected top-17 picks on the roster and a 17-year-old who may go first in 2028. Florida is still No. 1 in both polls, but the betting market has flipped to Duke. The Dec. 1 game in Gainesville decides the argument, but Michigan State on Tuesday and Illinois next week come first.
2. Kansas is the team the eligibility rulings built. In August the Jayhawks weren’t a top-20 team. Then judges cleared Tre White and Melvin Council Jr., and then Kaufman-Renn arrived from Purdue with a sixth year. White scored 22 in the opener, Kaufman-Renn has missed twice in two games, and Tyran Stokes hasn’t needed to carry anything. The risk is the same thing that built the team: all three are playing under court orders that can be reversed. And the first loss came from somewhere else entirely, when Council broke his foot in practice on Nov. 9.
3. Arizona is the team the rulings broke. Our preseason case for Arizona said its title chances “rest on one ruling for one power forward.” The ruling went the wrong way. Without Godfrey, Arizona is thin up front and short on shooting. Kharchenkov’s 38 against UCLA was spectacular and still wasn’t enough. The defense is real, and Tommy Lloyd is 148-36. But Arizona’s draw from here (at Auburn, UConn at home, Maui, St. John’s at Madison Square Garden) leaves little room to sort it out.
4. The Michigan rebuild is exactly as hard as it looked. The defending champion lost the title-game rematch to UConn 85-77, shot 7-of-28 from three and turned it over 11 times in the first half. Elliot Cadeau fouled out with eight points. J.P. Estrella (19 and 9) and Roddy Gayle Jr. (18) were good, and Gayle is playing on an injunction. KenPom has Michigan 30th. Mike Boynton’s contract requires two of four benchmarks for a second year, including 24 regular-season wins or a top-four Big Ten finish. Neither looks likely from here.
5. The middle of the Big Ten is better than the polls think. Nebraska is 15th in KenPom and 13th in Torvik. UCLA beat Arizona. Indiana is 3-0 and 29th in Torvik after rebuilding with high-major transfers. Meanwhile Purdue is 1-2. The Big Ten looked like three contenders and a crowd. It now looks like three contenders, a strong second tier of Nebraska and UCLA, and a crowd that is deeper than expected. That matters for Maryland, which plays all of them.
The Eligibility Docket
The rulings that have changed rosters since the season began. Most of these players are eligible under temporary orders, and the NCAA is expected to appeal at least one of them.
| Team | Player | Ruling | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | RJ Godfrey | Denied | The projected starting power forward is out for the season |
| Kansas | Trey Kaufman-Renn | Sixth year granted “for now” | A top-30 player, per CBS, added to a top-five team |
| Kansas | Tre White, Melvin Council Jr. | Preliminary injunction | Two starters; White scored 22 in the opener. Council, playing a seventh year under a New York injunction, broke his foot Nov. 9 and may be out until January |
| St. John’s | Quinn Ellis | Cleared by the NCAA | The starting point guard: 7 assists, 5 steals in his debut |
| St. John’s | Keyshawn Hall | Playing | 26 points in his debut. Reed Bailey and Babacar Sane are still waiting |
| Texas Tech | Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams, Jamichael Stillwell | Eligible | Stillwell was cleared by a temporary restraining order the week of Nov. 9. Atwell’s trial isn’t until June, so he likely plays all season |
| Gonzaga | Xaivian Lee, Javon Bennett | Eligible for now | Fixes the backcourt hole; Chauncey Wiggins still waiting |
| Iowa State | Tamin Lipsey | Eligible; NCAA expected to appeal | The starting point guard |
| Michigan | Roddy Gayle Jr., Kenny Noland Jr. | Preliminary injunctions | Neither is assured of the full season |
| Miami | Malik Reneau | Indiana injunction | Last year’s leading scorer is playing |
Still waiting: Louisville’s Seth Trimble, Tennessee’s Jalen Washington, BYU’s Jaxon Kohler and Saint Louis’s Robbie Avila. In Congress, the Protect College Sports Act has passed the Senate and needs only the House.
The fair read is that the players are winning in the short run. The open question is what happens when the first temporary order is reversed in January, and a ranked team loses a starter mid-season.
Conference Races
Regular-season title odds, ours, with the October preview figure in parentheses. Each league sums to 100.
| League | Now (October) | The story |
|---|---|---|
| SEC | Florida 38 (38), Texas 11 (11), Vanderbilt 10 (5), Alabama 10 (8), Tennessee 7 (10), Arkansas 6 (8) | Florida hasn’t given anyone a reason to move. Vanderbilt replaces Tennessee as the team most likely to crash the top tier, and Arkansas’s 19-point loss to Virginia drops the Razorbacks to sixth |
| Big Ten | Illinois 35 (34), Michigan State 22 (20), Nebraska 11 (8), UCLA 10 (7), Michigan 5 (10), USC 3 (4) | The top two hold. Nebraska and UCLA move up, Michigan drops by half |
| Big 12 | Houston 25 (17), Kansas 24 (16), Arizona 19 (30), Iowa State 11 (11), Texas Tech 10 (11), BYU 5 (5) | The biggest shake-up of any league. Godfrey’s ruling took Arizona from favorite to third, and Melvin Council Jr.’s broken foot tips the top spot to Houston, barely |
| ACC | Duke 51 (47), Virginia 17 (15), Louisville 13 (15), Miami 9 (11), Clemson 2 (3), Virginia Tech 2 (3) | Duke’s gap over the field is wider than we priced it. Beating Arkansas by 19 makes Virginia a clear second |
| Big East | UConn 45 (38), St. John’s 25 (30), Marquette 11 (9), Villanova 9 (11), Creighton 5 (5), Providence 3 (4) | UConn’s win over Michigan and St. John’s soft opener widen the gap. Marquette is KenPom’s 26th team at 2-0 |
The remainder of each league goes to the rest of the field.
Conference Overviews
Team counts are from KenPom’s ratings through Nov. 9. Bid projections are from ESPN’s first bracket of the preseason and its Nov. 10 update, both assuming the new 76-team field.
| League | KenPom top 30 | KenPom top 60 | ESPN preseason bids | ESPN Nov. 10 bids |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC | 11 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| Big Ten | 5 | 14 | 11 | 11 |
| Big 12 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| ACC | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Big East | 3 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| Pac-12 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Atlantic 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Mountain West | 0 | 1 | 2 |
SEC. The deepest league by every measure we have. Eleven SEC teams are in KenPom’s top 30, as many as the Big Ten and Big 12 combined at that level. Florida is the clear favorite, but the shape behind it has changed since October. Vanderbilt (KenPom seventh) and Alabama (12th) have looked like the second tier, while Tennessee, picked in the top four by most preseason panels, has looked like a bubble-to-safe team after its exhibitions. Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, Texas A&M, Missouri and LSU are all in KenPom’s top 30. Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Georgia are in the top 60. The one sour note: Oklahoma lost to East Texas A&M as a 28.5-point favorite and has slipped to 65th. Twelve bids still looks right, and 13 is possible. ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology has 12.
Big Ten. Fourteen teams in KenPom’s top 60, tied with the SEC, but built differently. The top three (Illinois, Michigan State and a rising Nebraska) are stronger than the SEC’s second tier. Then comes a large middle: UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana and Wisconsin, all between 16th and 51st. Oregon is 58th and Maryland 59th, which puts both at the bottom of that middle group. For Maryland, that’s the problem in one line: in an 18-team league where 14 teams rate inside KenPom’s top 60, a 10-10 conference record might not stand out. Purdue’s 1-2 start is the early surprise; Matt Painter has missed the tournament four times in 22 seasons.
Big 12. The race changed more than any other in two weeks. In October, Arizona was a unanimous pick to win the league. Now Houston and Kansas are the top two Big 12 teams in both models, and Arizona is third, without RJ Godfrey. Iowa State (14th in KenPom) and Texas Tech (17th) are the next tier, and BYU (21st) has Robert Wright III playing like an All-American. Cincinnati, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU fill out a deep middle. The league office’s goal of ten bids looks realistic, and ESPN’s latest bracketology already has 11, with Oklahoma State among its last four in. Keeping 11 depends on how many of the league’s fifth-year players keep their injunctions.
ACC. Duke and then everyone else, as expected. KenPom has four ACC teams in its top 30: Duke, Virginia, Louisville and Miami. Behind them, North Carolina (45th), Virginia Tech (48th) and Florida State (54th) are bubble teams in November. The ACC’s bid count will depend on the SEC/ACC Challenge on Dec. 1-2, where Duke at Florida, Texas at Louisville, Kentucky at Virginia and Alabama at Miami are the headliners. Seven bids is the ceiling unless the second tier wins some of those. ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology has exactly seven, with NC State and Clemson among its last four in and Virginia Tech and Florida State just outside.
Big East. Two programs, as SB Nation’s Mike Rutherford said in the preseason. UConn beat the defending champion. St. John’s needed a late burst to put away Monmouth, then beat Iona 104-65 and has climbed to 19th in KenPom. Marquette (26th) is the early climber after a 12-20 season, and Villanova lost its opener in Rome. Villanova, Xavier, Creighton, Providence and DePaul are all in KenPom’s top 60, but five bids looks likelier than seven. ESPN’s latest bracketology has five, with Xavier and Providence among its first four out.
Elsewhere. Gonzaga is the only non-power team in KenPom’s top 40, 11th overall in its first Pac-12 season. Utah State (46th) and Boise State (53rd) give the new Pac-12 a chance at three bids. Saint Louis (44th) and VCU (56th) lead the Atlantic 10, and Grand Canyon (50th) is the new Mountain West’s best team. ESPN’s latest bracketology gives each of those three leagues two bids, with VCU among its last four in. High Point is 3-0 and 69th, the best team in a traditional one-bid league.
Player Of The Year Watch
The preseason consensus settled on Jeremy Fears Jr.: CBS’s preseason Player of the Year, and the pick of three of ESPN’s four writers. We had Thomas Haugh first. Neither has given anyone a reason to switch yet.
| # | Player | Early line | The case |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Haugh, Florida | 19 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 turnovers, 4-of-8 from three vs. Miami | The best player on the No. 1 team, and the three-point shooting was the one hole in his game |
| 2 | Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State | 13 points, 11 assists in the opener | He led the country in assists last season and is on pace to do it again |
| 3 | Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt | 20 points, 6 assists in the opener | If Vanderbilt really is KenPom’s seventh-best team, he is the reason |
| 4 | Tyran Stokes, Kansas | 27 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists in an exhibition against Duke | The No. 1 recruit on the team that has climbed the most |
| 5 | Braylon Mullins, UConn | 20 vs. Gardner-Webb, 23 vs. Michigan | The best two-game start among the title contenders’ stars |
Watch list: Robert Wright III (35 vs. Ohio State), Ivan Kharchenkov (38 vs. UCLA), Keyshawn Hall (26 in his debut) and Pharrel Payne (28 at Georgetown). JT Toppin is targeting mid-December. David Mirkovic is still out with a foot injury.
Newcomers: Who Has Hit
Transfers
| Player | Team (from) | Early line |
|---|---|---|
| Trey Kaufman-Renn | Kansas (Purdue) | 11-of-13 from the field in two games; 17 in 18 minutes vs. Middle Tennessee |
| Keyshawn Hall | St. John’s (Auburn) | 26 and 9 in his debut, with his first six shots made |
| Acaden Lewis | Miami (Villanova) | 24 in his debut, in a loss to Florida |
| Milan Momcilovic | Kentucky (Iowa State) | 24 in his debut |
| Jeremiah Wilkinson | Arkansas (Georgia) | 23 in his debut |
| J.P. Estrella | Michigan (Tennessee) | 19 and 9 vs. UConn |
| Derek Dixon | Arizona (North Carolina) | 18 vs. UCLA, but 5-of-17 shooting |
Freshmen
| Player | Team | Early line |
|---|---|---|
| Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje | Duke | 15 points, 7 rebounds, 3 blocks in his debut. The early favorite for No. 1 in the 2028 draft |
| Adonis Ratliff | USC | 25 in his debut |
| Jason Crowe Jr. | Missouri | 23 in his debut |
| Colben Landrew | UConn | 14 and 8 off the bench vs. Michigan |
| Chase Foster | Pitt | 23, a program record for a freshman debut |
Also: Kansas’s Tyran Stokes had 27 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists against Duke in an exhibition, the performance that made him the early favorite to go first in the 2027 draft. UCLA’s Nikola Kusturica, 17, scored 29 against North Florida. Louisville’s Obinna Ekezie Jr. had 20 and 13 against Morehead State. Arkansas’s Jordan Smith Jr., the No. 2 recruit in the class, went 8-of-17 in the loss to Virginia.
Maryland
Record: 1-1. Beat Bucknell 96-67; lost at Georgetown 86-74.
Ratings: KenPom 59th (46th offense, 82nd defense), down from 53rd in the preseason and 57th last week. Torvik 49th (31st offense, 78th defense), up from 51st last week but down from 38th in the preseason.
The first two games showed both halves of what this roster was built to be. The good half is the glass. Maryland outrebounded Bucknell 54-22, including 28-6 on the offensive end, and Torvik has the Terps second in the country in offensive rebounding. Pharrel Payne looks fully healthy: 28 points on 10-of-14 shooting and 8-of-8 at the line at Georgetown.
The bad half is the three-point line, on both ends. Maryland is 10-of-48 from three (20.8%). Opponents are 27-of-61 (44.3%). Georgetown made 15 of 30. DJ Wagner is 0-of-8 and Bishop Boswell 1-of-7, while Mike McNair Jr., who shot 44.4% from three last season, has taken four threes in 42 minutes. Some of that regresses on its own. The closeouts don’t fix themselves.
The projection: We started at 21-11 and 11-9 in the Big Ten, a 9 or 10 seed. We’re holding there for now, though ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology has Maryland among its Next Four Out, just outside the field. Two games is too few to move off a full-season projection, but the early defense supports the models’ lower view. Virginia on Friday and Tennessee in Las Vegas will tell us whether to move.
Friday vs. Virginia: The Cavaliers come to College Park off a 19-point win over Arkansas in which they made 12 threes. That is the matchup problem in one number, because Maryland’s opponents are shooting 44.3% from three. ESPN’s predictor gave Virginia a 52.8% chance before the Arkansas game. The keys are the ones from our two-games-in piece: guard the arc, get Payne touches, find shots for McNair, and start with the intensity that was missing at Georgetown. Johann Grunloh is playing on an injured right ankle, which should give Payne and Buljan room inside. A home win over a top-10 team is the résumé line Maryland needs most in November.
What’s next: After Virginia, the Players Era in Las Vegas: Tennessee on Nov. 24, Iowa State or San Diego State on Nov. 26, and a third game Nov. 27. December opens at Ohio State (Dec. 6) and home against Michigan State (Dec. 9), with South Carolina in Baltimore on Dec. 19. A split against Virginia and Tennessee would keep the projection on track. Going 0-2 would leave the Terps chasing their non-conference résumé.
Around The State
| Program | Record | KenPom | The story so far |
|---|---|---|---|
| Towson | 1-2 | 160 | Still the state’s highest-rated mid-major, and the gap grew. Lost at Santa Clara and Utah, with Jaquan Womack leading in scoring both times, then won the Nov. 9 home opener against LIU |
| Mount St. Mary’s | 1-1 | 291 | Lost at Xavier, then beat Loyola 68-57 |
| UMBC | 1-2 | 301 | Lost at George Mason, then 88-80 at Marist after a late rally in which Riley Jacobs scored a career-high 23. Beat non-Division I McDaniel on Nov. 9 |
| Navy | 2-1 | 318 | Lost 91-39 at George Washington; beat Delaware State 66-60 and non-Division I Central Penn |
| Morgan State | 3-0 | 342 | Two wins over non-Division I teams, then a 73-67 win at Niagara. Alfred Worrell Jr. has 20 or more in all three |
| Loyola | 1-2 | 351 | Lost 80-58 at Georgetown and 68-57 at Mount St. Mary’s, then picked up its first win |
| UMES | 1-2 | 356 | Lost at Wake Forest (83-62) and High Point (63-49), then beat non-Division I Cheyney 81-55 at homecoming. Road trips to Boston College, Rhode Island and DePaul are next |
| Coppin State | 1-2 | 359 | Lost at Virginia Tech and at George Mason, then beat non-Division I Cheyney at home on Nov. 9 |
Records and KenPom ranks through Nov. 9, in KenPom order.
The Board: Nov. 10th To Dec. 2nd
It starts Tuesday, the best night of the young season, and the stretch that follows is the busiest of the non-conference season: two Players Era events, Maui, Atlantis and the SEC/ACC Challenge.
| Date | Game | Site | Line | Our pick | Against the spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 10 | No. 1 Florida at Florida State | Tallahassee | Florida -10 | Florida | Florida State +10 |
| Nov. 10 | No. 2 Duke vs. No. 5 Michigan State | Chicago | Duke -6.5 | Duke | Duke -6.5 |
| Nov. 10 | Memphis at No. 22 Vanderbilt | Nashville | Vanderbilt -15 | Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt -15 |
| Nov. 10 | No. 3 Illinois at No. 16 Texas Tech | Lubbock | Illinois -1.5 | Texas Tech | Texas Tech +1.5 |
| Nov. 10 | No. 15 Kansas vs. No. 24 Kentucky | Chicago | Kansas -4.5 | Kansas | Kentucky +4.5 |
| Nov. 13 | Virginia at Maryland | College Park | Virginia | ||
| Nov. 13 | Arizona at Auburn | Auburn | Arizona | ||
| Nov. 17 | Illinois at Duke | Durham | Duke | ||
| Nov. 17 | Michigan State at Tennessee | Knoxville | Michigan State | ||
| Nov. 18 | UConn at Arizona | Tucson | Arizona | ||
| Nov. 24 | Maryland vs. Tennessee | Las Vegas | Tennessee | ||
| Nov. 25 | UConn vs. Duke | Las Vegas | Duke | ||
| Nov. 26 | Arkansas vs. Michigan State | Detroit | Michigan State | ||
| Nov. 27 | Villanova at Kansas | Lawrence | Kansas | ||
| Dec. 1 | Duke at Florida | Gainesville | Florida | ||
| Dec. 1 | Texas at Louisville | Louisville | Louisville | ||
| Dec. 2 | Kentucky at Virginia | Charlottesville | Virginia | ||
| Dec. 2 | Alabama at Miami | Coral Gables | Miami |
Tuesday’s lines are CBS Sports’ as of Nov. 10; rankings are the AP’s. Later games have no posted line yet, so we’ll grade those straight up. Maryland in bold.
Predictions
Florida over Florida State, but Florida State covers +10. Florida played what CBS called a C+ game against Miami and still won by 10. On the road against freshman center Marcis Ponder, in a building that will be loud, the Gators should win by less. What it means: a road win over an ACC team, and not much more.
Duke over Michigan State, and Duke covers -6.5. Duke can play ten deep, and its bigs are the best group in the country against a Michigan State team still sorting out its center spot. Fears will have to be spectacular. What it means: a comfortable Duke win settles the No. 1 argument for us, and probably for the polls.
Vanderbilt over Memphis, and Vanderbilt covers -15. Memphis has beaten Iowa State and VCU behind Jayden Reid, but it is without big man Nemanja Popovic, and Vanderbilt has three good perimeter defenders to throw at Reid. What it means: a Vanderbilt rout would back up KenPom’s seventh-place rating.
Texas Tech over Illinois. Illinois is without Mirkovic and Jake Davis and is leaning on four freshmen. Texas Tech gets Jamichael Stillwell back, has Donovan Atwell (46% from three last season) and is 25-0 in non-conference home games under Grant McCasland. What it means: the first real road test for Illinois’s young backcourt, and our first chance to be wrong about the No. 3 team.
Kansas over Kentucky, but Kentucky covers +4.5. Without Council, Kansas will go big and win the glass. Kentucky has the best shooter in the country in Milan Momcilovic and the length to keep it close. What it means: a Kansas win without its starting point guard would back up our No. 4 ranking.
Virginia over Maryland. More in the Maryland section. Virginia’s shooting against Maryland’s perimeter defense is the matchup, and so far it favors the Cavaliers. What it means: a Maryland win would be the best non-conference résumé line of the Buzz Williams era.
Arizona over Auburn. Motiejus Krivas against a rebuilt Auburn frontcourt that struggled to finish at the rim last season. What it means: Arizona needs road wins to stop the slide that started with UCLA.
Duke over Illinois. At Cameron, with Mirkovic likely still working back. What it means: if Duke wins this and the Champions Classic, it goes to Las Vegas as the clear No. 1.
Michigan State over Tennessee. Tennessee has won 45 straight home non-conference games, so this is a pick against a streak. But Fears against a backcourt that gave up 103 at Duke is the matchup we trust. What it means: a Tennessee loss would say the exhibitions weren’t noise.
Arizona over UConn. McKale Center, and an Arizona team that should have its rotation sorted by then. The closest call of the mid-November games. What it means: a home win over a top-five team would put Arizona back in the conversation.
Tennessee over Maryland. Both models have Tennessee about 35 spots higher, and Maryland has given up 44% from three. If the Terps’ shooting regresses toward normal, this is a coin flip. What it means: a Maryland win would be the first real résumé line for a bubble team.
Duke over UConn. Duke’s size against a UConn frontcourt that lost Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. The Huskies have the guards to keep it close. What it means: a Duke win, with Michigan State and Illinois already played, would make the Blue Devils the clear No. 1 entering Gainesville.
Michigan State over Arkansas. Fears against freshman Jordan Smith Jr. What it means: a win nine days after Tennessee would give Michigan State the best November résumé in the Big Ten.
Kansas over Villanova. Allen Fieldhouse, and a Villanova team that lost its opener. What it means: nothing new for Kansas. A Villanova win would put the Wildcats back in the Big East’s top tier.
Florida over Duke. The closest call on the board. Duke is the better team by a hair in both models; Florida is at home, with the frontcourt to make Duke’s bigs work. What it means: the winner leaves the first week of December as the No. 1 overall seed in most projections.
Louisville over Texas. Home floor, and Flory Bidunga against a Texas front line still finding its rotation. Mikey Lewis may be back for Texas by then. What it means: the first real test of the Cardinals’ $20 million roster.
Virginia over Kentucky. Torvik’s view of Virginia against a Kentucky team that shoots well and defends less. What it means: a Kentucky loss would add to Mark Pope’s pressure in year three.
Miami over Alabama. Home court in a game the models rate close to even. Alabama plays the fastest pace in the country; Miami will have to keep up. What it means: Miami needs a top-25 win after losing to Florida.
The tally: This is the first board: 18 picks straight up, and five against the spread where a line was posted. We’ll grade every one in the next update and keep a running record for the season.
Sources: KenPom and Torvik ratings through Nov. 9; AP and Coaches polls (Nov. 9); CBS Sports’ Top 25 And 1 (Nov. 10), Champions Classic NBA Draft guide and Nov. 10 picks and lines; CBS Sports Top 25 And 1 (Nov. 5) and Top 100 And 1 teams; the Bilas Index (ESPN, Nov. 5); ESPN’s bracketology (Nov. 10) and Champions Classic preview; ESPN game recaps and its Mike Boynton feature; athletics department recaps from Towson, UMBC and Morgan State; ESPN team schedules; Field Level Media. All rankings, percentages and projections are our own.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.