For the fourth straight week, a team ranked in the AP’s top two lost to an unranked team. This time it was No. 2 Ohio State, 30-18 at USC, in the first full game the Buckeyes played without Julian Sayin. Ohio State had company. Florida, SMU, Northwestern, Arizona, Oklahoma State and Wisconsin, all ranked in last week’s AP poll, lost too. No. 1 Miami trailed North Carolina in the fourth quarter before getting out with a 38-35 win. The first College Football Playoff committee ranking comes out Tuesday night, so this was the last weekend of results before the committee shows its hand.

Quick Hits

Our record. We went 5-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread and 5-1 on totals in Week 9 (last week’s picks are here). That puts us at 30-25 straight up, 22-28-2 against the spread and 28-19 on totals for the season. Ohio State was the straight-up miss. The against-the-spread misses were Notre Dame (won by 22, laying 30.5), Arizona and Auburn (Texas Tech and Ole Miss both covered) and Miami (won by three, laying 16.5). In the five games where FPI and SP+ both disagreed with the line, the models went 2-3; Texas Tech’s eight-point win, which covered against our pick, was one of their two.

USC 30, Ohio State 18. USC answered the question we asked last week, and the answer was worse for Ohio State than we expected. Trent Mosley took a screen pass 69 yards for a touchdown on the second snap, against a defense that hadn’t allowed a play longer than 36 yards all season. The Trojans led 20-9 at halftime and 27-9 after freshman tight end Mark Bowman’s 70-yard catch set up a King Miller touchdown. They scored more points than Ohio State’s defense had allowed in its previous 31 games. Luke Fahey, the freshman who got the start over Tavien St. Clair, went 21 of 38 for 260 yards with no interceptions, and his receivers dropped several catchable balls. The Buckeyes gained 464 yards but scored only three field goals on their first five drives, including one after reaching the USC 1 before halftime. They also committed 11 penalties for 75 yards. Jeremiah Smith’s 1-yard touchdown catch with 2:12 left was the 40th of his career, a Big Ten record, and it came too late. Per the AP, Ohio State had not lost two games this early in a season since 2011, and Ryan Day is now 58-2 against unranked teams. We picked Ohio State to win and USC to cover. Half of that held.

We said last week that if Ohio State lost at USC or to Oregon, we would move it, and we have. It drops seven spots, to ninth. The reason is in the Power Rankings below: the loss proved on the field that this is a different team without Sayin.

Miami 38, North Carolina 35. The No. 1 team in the country trailed 28-24 with 11:46 left after Demon June’s 1-yard run. Miami went ahead on Mark Fletcher Jr.’s 2-yard touchdown on fourth down with 7:49 to play. On the next possession, Marquise Lightfoot stripped Billy Edwards Jr. from behind and Justin Scott recovered. Darian Mensah’s 9-yard touchdown to Malachi Toney made it 38-28 with 2:33 left, and Miami still had to recover an onside kick to finish it. Toney caught two touchdowns, and Fletcher tied Miami’s career record for rushing touchdowns. The worry is the defense. Edwards threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns, and North Carolina kept the ball on a 16-play drive that lasted nearly eight and a half minutes. It was the most points Miami has allowed in regulation this season, and Mario Cristobal said afterward that the tackling and coverage weren’t good enough. North Carolina is now 0-12 against No. 1 teams. We said Miami’s place in the field did not depend on this game. It didn’t. The game at Notre Dame on Saturday matters more after this.

Georgia 27, Florida 8. Georgia forced four turnovers and led 24-0 at halftime in Atlanta, where the rivalry moved this year because of renovations in Jacksonville. The swing play came with 29 seconds left in the half: Quintavius Johnson sacked Tramell Jones Jr. and Chris Cole returned the fumble 66 yards for a touchdown. It was Cole’s second long fumble-return touchdown of the season. Aaron Philo started for Florida after missing the Texas game and was benched after two interceptions. Jones then threw an interception in the end zone from the Georgia 3. Georgia outrushed Florida 217-48 and held Jadan Baugh, who started the day leading the SEC in rushing touchdowns, to 38 yards on 17 carries. It was Georgia’s sixth straight win in the series. The caution is Gunner Stockton: 13 of 23 for 101 yards against a Florida pass defense that entered the game 121st nationally in passing yards allowed, per CBS. CBS’s Georgia column makes the case that the passing game is the problem to watch. Kirby Smart conceded afterward that Georgia missed throws and left points on the field. Last week we wrote that a loss would leave Florida at 5-3 with its best case already made. That is where Florida is.

Utah 49, Cincinnati 25. One week after Cincinnati beat Texas Tech, Utah led the Bearcats 42-6 at halftime. Utah kept the ball for more than 10 minutes of the first quarter, Rabbit Evans returned a fumble 51 yards for a touchdown, and Elijah Davis returned an interception 39 yards for another with 34 seconds left in the half. Devon Dampier threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns. His 45 rushing yards made him Utah’s career leader in rushing yards by a quarterback. The Utes are 8-0 for the first time since 2010, and their 14-game winning streak is the longest active streak in the FBS. This was the kind of result Utah needed before BYU comes to Salt Lake City.

Indiana 23, Minnesota 16, in overtime. For the second straight week, Indiana needed overtime against an unranked team. Josh Hoover, who started with an injured right shoulder, was pulled at halftime after his second interception of the season, with Minnesota up 10-7. Grant Wilson went 9 of 17 for 156 yards. Minnesota’s Luke Drzewiecki made a 60-yard field goal for a 16-13 lead with 19 seconds left. Charlie Becker then caught a 33-yard pass and Paddy McAteer made a 60-yarder of his own as time expired. Wilson hit Becker for a 25-yard touchdown on the first play of overtime, and the defense sacked Drake Lindsey on fourth down to end it. Becker finished with eight catches for 149 yards. The special teams were nearly as bad as the offense: two short punts set up both Minnesota scores in the first half, a field goal was blocked, another was missed and a third attempt never happened because of a bad snap. Last week we wrote that the problem is the offense. It still is, and now the quarterback is a question too.

Texas Tech 34, Arizona 26. Joey McGuire benched Will Hammond after the loss at Cincinnati and started Tommy Castellanos, and Texas Tech got its first opening-drive touchdown since the opener. Castellanos completed only 11 of 24 passes for 144 yards but threw two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards and a score. His 27-yard touchdown pass on fourth-and-2 late in the third quarter put the Red Raiders ahead for good. J’Koby Williams ran for 175 yards, including a 64-yard touchdown. Noah Fifita threw for 417 yards for Arizona, 182 of them to Isaiah Mizell, but the Wildcats ran for 12 yards and gave up five sacks. Texas Tech tied a school record with its 13th straight home win. The start came a day after a court ruling preserved the eligibility of Castellanos and 29 other athletes suing over the NCAA’s five-year eligibility model. We picked Arizona to cover and it didn’t. Last week we wrote that the loser would have two league losses and that, for Texas Tech, it would end the title-game path. Arizona is the team with two now.

Notre Dame 35, Navy 13. Navy led 13-7 with 1:52 left in the first half after Jackson Gutierrez’s 2-yard run. Notre Dame went ahead 50 seconds later on Nolan James Jr.’s 52-yard run and scored on each of its first three possessions of the second half. Navy, which had the ball for all but 6:27 of the first half, gained 56 yards after halftime. CJ Carr threw for 210 yards and two touchdowns, James ran for 107 and two scores, and Marcus Freeman won his 50th game at Notre Dame. It was the Irish’s ninth straight win over Navy. Notre Dame won by 22, laying 30.5, so we got the winner and the under but not the cover.

Ole Miss 45, Auburn 15. Ole Miss led only 17-15 late in the third quarter. Trinidad Chambliss ran 26 yards for a touchdown, threw two more touchdowns in the fourth, and the Rebels scored the last 28 points. Chambliss threw for 263 yards and ran for 65. Ole Miss converted 13 of 16 third downs and held Auburn to 63 rushing yards. With Kewan Lacy out (separated shoulder), sophomore Shekai Mills-Knight, who had 42 yards in the first seven games, ran 16 times for 71 yards and a touchdown. Coach Pete Golding credited the early running game for setting up everything else. We picked Auburn to cover 11.5. It lost by 30. CBS’s projection lists the score as 45-17; the AP recap and ESPN’s committee column both have a 30-point margin, so we use 45-15.

BYU 27, Arizona State 20. BYU led 17-3 at halftime, saw Arizona State tie it in the third quarter and pulled away late. Matthias Dunn’s 45-yard field goal put BYU ahead for good. Bear Bachmeier converted a fourth-and-1 run from his own 14, hit a 53-yard pass on the next play and set up Sione Moa’s 1-yard touchdown with 2:09 left. BYU had six sacks. There is an asterisk on the first score: the Big 12 said after the game that replay should not have awarded BYU a touchdown when Moa scooped up Bachmeier’s fumble near the goal line, and that BYU should have had third-and-goal from the 2. Arizona State’s Jake Fette was making his first career start.

Boise State 46, Texas State 45. Boise State led by 25 at halftime and then gave up the first 36 points of the second half. Jayden Bradley’s pick-six off Maddux Madsen, Madsen’s first interception of the season, put Texas State ahead 39-28 with 8:58 left. Madsen then took a hard hit near his left knee and left the game. Max Cutforth came in and threw three touchdown passes in the final seven minutes, the last an 18-yarder to Akeem Wright with 2:40 left. Mana Tuioti’s interception on a trick play set up one of them. Madsen watched the end on crutches, and Spencer Danielson said his status is unknown. Danielson also called the third quarter one of the worst he has been part of. Boise was No. 20 in last week’s AP poll, tied with Northwestern; that is the ranking the AP recap used. Boise is 7-1 and 4-0 in the Pac-12. The Madsen news matters more for the Group of Six race than the score does.

The week-after problem kept going. ESPN pointed out earlier this season how often teams lose the week after their biggest win. Three more did it this week. Wisconsin beat USC 17-7 a week ago and lost 30-0 at Iowa, where Hank Brown completed 20 of 24 passes. Cincinnati beat Texas Tech and lost at home to Utah by 24. Florida beat Texas in its last game and lost to Georgia by 19. USC has a bye before it goes to Indiana on November 14th.

Elsewhere. Syracuse beat SMU 30-27 on a 2-yard touchdown pass from Steve Angeli to Noah Meyers with 17 seconds left, which hurts SMU’s hopes of reaching the ACC title game. Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 51-49 on Kyle Konrardy’s 34-yard field goal as time expired, set up in part by an unsportsmanlike-conduct penalty on Oklahoma State’s go-ahead touchdown. Oregon came back from 10-0 down to beat Northwestern 34-26 behind Dylan Raiola, who threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns. Oregon has ruled Dante Moore out for the season and fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer on October 25th. South Carolina won 42-25 at Oklahoma, its third straight win. Washington beat Nebraska with two touchdowns in the last 90 seconds, the second a 48-yard interception return; Nebraska has lost three straight by a combined 13 points. Missouri won 34-10 at Arkansas, and Ahmad Hardy, who was shot in the leg at a concert in May, played for the first time this season. Wake Forest beat Virginia 51-7, though quarterback Gio Lopez limped off with a leg injury. UCLA intercepted four passes and beat Nevada 27-0, its first shutout at the Rose Bowl since 2007. Texas beat Mississippi State 31-3, with defensive tackle Maraad Watson returning a fumble 61 yards for a score. Mississippi State’s starter, AJ Swann, was hurt on that play, which leaves the offense to walk-on Parker Puckett. Thursday night, Troy beat James Madison 24-21 in overtime after the Dukes led 21-7 at halftime and then turned it over five times. Baylor, under interim coach Joe Klanderman, beat UCF 41-9. And Sacramento State beat Kent State 31-10 for its first FBS win.

Power Rankings

#	Team	Record	Change
1	Miami	8-0	—
2	Georgia	7-1	Up 1
3	BYU	7-1	Up 1
4	Notre Dame	7-1	Up 1
5	Utah	8-0	Up 2
6	Indiana	8-1	—
7	UCLA	8-0	Up 1
8	Texas	6-2	Up 1
9	Ohio State	6-2	Down 7
10	Texas Tech	7-1	—
11	Tennessee	6-2	—
12	Alabama	6-2	—
13	Kentucky	7-1	—
14	Ole Miss	6-2	—
15	LSU	6-2	—
16	Wake Forest	7-1	Up 1
17	USC	7-2	New
18	Houston	6-2	Down 2
19	Missouri	6-2	—
20	Boise State	7-1	Down 2

 

Records are through October 31st. Florida dropped out.

Georgia (2nd, up 1). Georgia moves up because Ohio State fell, and it earned the spot. Its two best wins are away from home, at Alabama and against Florida in Atlanta. Saturday was the defense’s game: four takeaways, a touchdown and 48 rushing yards allowed. The passing game is the open question going into Oxford.

BYU (3rd, up 1). BYU moves up one because Ohio State fell. Arizona State made it uncomfortable, and the Big 12 says one of BYU’s touchdowns shouldn’t have counted. BYU still won by seven with six sacks and a fourth-down conversion from its own 14. It stays ahead of Notre Dame on head-to-head and ahead of Utah on the promise we made, which runs out Saturday.

Notre Dame (4th, up 1). Notre Dame moves up one because Ohio State fell. The first half against Navy was sloppy and the second half was not. The Irish held Navy to 56 yards after halftime.

Utah (5th, up 2). Utah passes Indiana. Utah went to a Cincinnati team that had just beaten Texas Tech by 13 and led by 36 at halftime. In the same two weeks, Indiana needed overtime twice against unranked teams and pulled its quarterback at halftime on Saturday. Utah’s schedule is still the weakest of the contenders, and we said so last week, but it is 8-0 and has won its last two big games, Houston and Cincinnati, in very different ways. It stays behind BYU for one more week because we said it would.

UCLA (7th, up 1). UCLA moves up one because Ohio State fell. Four interceptions and a shutout of a 3-5 team don’t change much, but the Bruins are 8-0 and now the only unbeaten team in the Big Ten standings.

Texas (8th, up 1). Texas moves up one and passes Ohio State, which it beat 24-23 in Austin in Week 2. We wrote last week that if Ohio State lost at USC, Texas would move ahead. It has. The 31-3 win over Mississippi State was more about the defense than the offense, which was sacked six times and finished under 300 yards. Cam Coleman left early for the second straight game and was in street clothes in the second half.

Ohio State (9th, down 7). Ohio State drops because it lost, and because the loss showed on the field what losing Sayin means. The defense, first in SP+ a week ago, gave up a 69-yard touchdown on the second snap and 30 points. The offense moved the ball and could not finish. It falls behind Texas, which beat it. It stays ahead of USC, Texas Tech and the rest of this group because of the whole body of work: wins over Indiana and at Iowa, and two losses on the road, both to teams ranked in our top 20. Seven spots is inside our 11-spot ceiling. If the Buckeyes lose to Oregon on Saturday, they drop again.

Wake Forest (16th, up 1). Wake Forest beat Virginia 51-7 for its fifth straight win and has given up four touchdowns in four games. Houston was off. Wake also gained from SMU’s loss at Syracuse, which leaves the Demon Deacons as the clear second team in the ACC.

USC (17th, new). USC enters because it beat the No. 2 team in the country by 12 on Saturday night. The Trojans are 7-2. They lost at home to Oregon earlier in the season and 17-7 at Wisconsin a week ago, so this is not a team without flaws. But beating Ohio State is a win few teams in this part of the ranking can match, and a week after scoring seven points, the offense put up 30 on the Ohio State defense.

Houston (18th, down 2). Houston was off. It drops two because Wake Forest won big and passes it, and because USC’s win over Ohio State is better than any win Houston has. Houston hosts Cincinnati on Saturday.

Boise State (20th, down 2). Boise State won, but it gave up 36 straight points at home to a 4-4 team and needed its backup quarterback to come back. Madsen’s injury is the bigger issue: if he misses time, this is a different team. Missouri, which won 34-10 at Arkansas, passes it.

Why Ohio State is ahead of USC. USC won 30-18 in Los Angeles, and it was not close; the Trojans led 27-9 in the third quarter. Under the rule we have used all season, a result like that does not get overridden. We are making an exception here and saying why. Ohio State played its first full game without Sayin, with a freshman making his first career start on the road. The loss tells us that this version of Ohio State is a lesser team, and we have dropped the Buckeyes seven spots for it. It does not tell us that USC has been the better team across nine games. Ohio State’s two losses are by one at Texas and by 12 at USC. USC’s two losses are at home to Oregon and by 10 at Wisconsin, a team that just lost 30-0. The fairer reading of Saturday is that a short-handed Ohio State lost on the road to a solid, capable team, and that USC is good enough to beat this Ohio State. That is a good result for USC, and it is why USC is ranked. It is not enough to put USC ahead of a team with Ohio State’s full record. If USC wins at Indiana on November 14th, this paragraph changes.

Why Indiana is ahead of Ohio State. Ohio State beat Indiana 19-15 in Bloomington on October 17th. That is a four-point loss, close enough for our rule to allow an override, though it came at home. The reason for the override is Sayin. He played most of that game, and the Ohio State team that beat Indiana is not the one that played at USC. Fahey did not look ready on Saturday, though it was his first start, on the road, and we will see how much he improves. Indiana is 8-1 and Ohio State is 6-2. That is not a claim that Indiana is dominant. Its 23 points against Minnesota were the most it has scored in four weeks, and every one of those games was close. Indiana wins them with good coaching and an experienced team, and it looks like a playoff team, but not one that is beating people up. Ohio State still holds the Big Ten tiebreaker if they finish level, which is a separate question from who is better right now.

Why USC is ahead of Oregon and Wisconsin. Oregon beat USC 41-27 at the Coliseum on September 26th, and Wisconsin beat USC 17-7 in Madison on October 24th. Neither was close. We still have USC ahead of both. USC is 7-2 and 4-2 in the Big Ten, with a win over Ohio State. Oregon is 5-3 and 3-2, with losses to UCLA, Oklahoma State and Illinois since it beat USC. If Oregon wins out, starting at Ohio State on Saturday, the head-to-head result will carry more weight and we will look at it again. Wisconsin is 5-3, and its 30-0 loss at Iowa on Saturday settles that one for now.

Why Texas and Ole Miss are ahead of Florida. Florida beat Texas 27-24 in Austin and Ole Miss 52-28 in Gainesville. We already overrode the Texas result (close) and broke the Ole Miss result as part of the Florida–Missouri–Ole Miss cycle. Florida is now 5-3, has lost three of its last four and is out of our top 20.

Carried over. These standing calls are unchanged. BYU is ahead of UCF, which beat it in double overtime in Orlando. Georgia is ahead of Auburn, which beat it 27-24 in Athens in the final seconds. Texas Tech is ahead of Cincinnati, which beat it 37-24 in Cincinnati. Tennessee is ahead of South Carolina, which beat it 27-24 in Columbia on October 24th; a three-point road loss is the kind our rule allows us to override. That was the middle game of South Carolina’s three-game winning streak, and the Gamecocks are close to our top 20. Boise State is ahead of Oregon, which beat it by seven in Eugene.

Why the rest held. Miami stays first. A three-point win at North Carolina was not the performance of a week ago, but Miami is the only unbeaten team in the top four and has the best résumé. Indiana holds at sixth. It won again and drops only because Utah passed it, which offsets Ohio State’s fall. Texas Tech holds at tenth after a good win over Arizona, still behind Ohio State’s body of work and ahead of three SEC teams that were off. Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky all had byes, and the margin chain that holds them in that order (Tennessee beat Alabama 26-10 in Knoxville; Alabama won 45-17 in Lexington) gets tested Saturday when Kentucky goes to Tennessee. Ole Miss won by 30 and holds at 14th behind 7-1 Kentucky. LSU was off and stays behind Ole Miss and Kentucky, which beat it. Missouri won and holds at 19th. It moves ahead of Boise State without moving itself.

Who’s next. The first team out is Iowa (6-2). It beat Wisconsin 30-0, its third shutout of the season, and its losses are to Ohio State and by three at Minnesota. Then come Florida, South Carolina (three straight wins, over Florida, Tennessee and Oklahoma), Northwestern, Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon and SMU.

The outside check

Last week we said that this week we would set our ranking next to the committee’s. We can’t yet. The committee’s first ranking comes out Tuesday night at 7 p.m. Eastern, after this piece runs. We will make that comparison in the Week 11 piece on November 8th. For now, the best stand-in is ESPN’s projection of what the committee will do. ESPN’s top seven are Miami, Georgia, BYU, Notre Dame, Utah, Indiana and UCLA, the same seven teams as ours in the same order. Then the lists split. ESPN has Kentucky eighth, Texas ninth, Ohio State 10th, Ole Miss 11th and LSU 12th. We have Texas eighth and Ohio State ninth, then Texas Tech, Tennessee and Alabama, with Kentucky 13th, Ole Miss 14th and LSU 15th. ESPN leaves Texas Tech, Tennessee and Alabama out of its 12. The Kentucky gap is still our biggest disagreement with the outside view, and Saturday’s game in Knoxville is the best chance to settle it on the field.

CBS’s projection of Sunday’s AP poll has Miami and Georgia first and second, as we do, then Notre Dame, Utah, UCLA, Indiana and BYU. It has Ohio State 11th, behind Kentucky, Alabama and Texas, and USC 17th, as we do. We have used CBS’s projection on the board for three weeks, and it was worth checking how close it came. The real post-Week 8 AP poll had Georgia third and Notre Dame fifth, where the projection we printed had them fourth and third. Indiana was fourth, not sixth, and BYU was eighth, not fifth. Utah was sixth, Ole Miss 12th and Houston 18th, and Boise State and Northwestern tied for 20th. The order at the very top was right; the rest moved by a few spots. The labels on this week’s board are CBS’s projection again, because the real poll comes out Sunday afternoon.

SP+, updated Sunday, has Georgia first, then Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU, Miami, Indiana, Texas, Alabama, Utah, Texas Tech, Tennessee and Oregon. Our biggest gaps with it are the same as last week: LSU is fourth in SP+ and 15th here, and Kentucky is 34th in SP+ and 13th here. SP+ also has BYU 14th and UCLA 15th, well below where we and ESPN’s projection have them. SP+ is a predictive rating, not a résumé ranking, so it doesn’t credit wins the way the committee does. Its résumé SP+ is closer to us: Miami, Utah, Notre Dame, UCLA, Georgia and Indiana are first through sixth, six of our top seven. The exception is BYU, 14th.

Best vs. Most Deserving

Our Power Rankings reward what teams have done: head-to-head results, the margin chain among Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky, the promise to hold BYU ahead of Utah until they play, and limits on how far a team can move in a week. A different question is who the 10 best teams are right now, the ones we would expect to win on a neutral field next Saturday. That list leans on how teams are playing, and on FPI and SP+, which are built to predict. Our answer differs from our top 10 in four places.

#	Team	Our rank	FPI	SP+
1	Georgia	2	4	1
2	Notre Dame	4	1	3
3	Miami	1	3	5
4	LSU	15	5	4
5	Indiana	6	8	6
6	Texas	8	7	7
7	Alabama	12	6	8
8	Ohio State	9	2	2
9	Utah	5	10	9
10	Texas Tech	10	13	10

 

FPI and SP+ ranks are from the November 1st runs.

BYU and UCLA drop out. They are third and seventh in our Power Rankings, and both earned those spots: BYU beat Notre Dame, and UCLA hasn’t lost. Neither model sees either as elite. FPI has BYU 16th and UCLA 28th; SP+ has them 14th and 15th. BYU lost at UCF, and against Arizona State it got a touchdown the Big 12 says shouldn’t have counted. UCLA’s opponents have a combined winning percentage that ranks 114th, according to ESPN Analytics. Those are good teams with strong résumés, not two of the 10 best teams in the country.

LSU and Alabama come in. We rank them 15th and 12th because each lost to a team we rank above it: LSU to Ole Miss and Kentucky, Alabama to Georgia and Tennessee. Both models put them in the top eight. On a neutral field, we would expect either one to be favored against most of our top 10. One of them will have three losses by Saturday night, because they play each other.

Notre Dame moves ahead of Miami. Miami is first in our rankings because it is unbeaten with the best résumé in the country, first in résumé SP+. As a team right now, Notre Dame looks a little better: first in FPI, top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency by ESPN Analytics. Miami’s defense just gave up 35 points to North Carolina. Saturday in South Bend answers this directly.

Georgia is first. SP+ moved Georgia to No. 1 this week, with the second-best defense in the country. The passing game is a real question, and it is the reason we picked Ole Miss to cover. But Georgia is the only team in the top five of SP+ on both offense and defense.

Ohio State stays in, but lower than the models. FPI and SP+ both have Ohio State second. Both ratings were built mostly on games Sayin played. The defense is still among the best in the country, which is why the Buckeyes are in. We would not put them above Texas, which beat them, or above Indiana, for the reasons in our Power Rankings. That is our judgment, not the models’.

Utah drops to ninth. Utah is fifth in our rankings because it is 8-0 and has handled its two biggest games. Both models have it about ninth or 10th. Its schedule ranks 93rd in SP+, the softest of any team on this list.

The 10th spot is close. Texas Tech gets it over Tennessee and Ole Miss. SP+ has Texas Tech 10th, Tennessee 11th and Ole Miss 13th. FPI goes the other way, with Ole Miss ninth, ahead of Texas Tech (13th) and Tennessee (14th). It is close enough that we would not argue hard against either Tennessee or Ole Miss.

Kentucky is in neither list. Kentucky is 13th in our rankings because it is 7-1 and its only loss is to Alabama. It is 26th in FPI and 34th in SP+, and its own efficiency numbers back the models up. That is why Saturday at Tennessee matters so much for our rankings: it is the clearest test of whether the record or the play is the truer picture.

The Playoff Field

Team	Preseason	Now	Change
Miami	71	95	Up 24
Georgia	69	88	Up 19
Indiana	72	78	Up 6
Notre Dame	78	78	—
Utah	—	72	New
Texas	62	66	Up 4
Alabama	40	58	Up 18
BYU	40	58	Up 18
UCLA	—	58	New
Ohio State	76	56	Down 20
Texas Tech	64	50	Down 14
Kentucky	—	48	New
LSU	42	40	Down 2
Ole Miss	40	40	—
Wake Forest	—	32	New
Tennessee	22	28	Up 6
Houston	—	14	New
USC	33	14	Down 19
Missouri	—	8	New
Group of Six	1.00	1.06	Up 0.06
The field	1.34	1.13	Down 0.21

 

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team field, and Change is against our preseason numbers. The 19 teams add up to 9.81. With the Group of Six line (1.06) and the field (1.13), that is 12.00. Boise State’s chance is still inside the Group of Six line so the line can be compared with August.

Ohio State drops 20, from 76 to 56. That is the biggest cut this week and inside our 24-point ceiling. Ohio State is 6-2 with Oregon, two more Big Ten games and Michigan left, and it now has to win most of them with a freshman quarterback. FPI still gives it 74.2 percent, but FPI’s rating was built mostly on Sayin’s games. A third loss would probably end it.

Utah rises 8, to 72. It is 8-0, won its two biggest games of the season back to back, and FPI now puts its playoff chance at 78.1 percent.

Texas, UCLA, Texas Tech and Wake Forest rise 6 each. Texas, to 66, won and now owns the head-to-head that matters most for a two-loss at-large spot; ESPN’s committee projection ranks it highest of the two-loss teams. UCLA, to 58, is the only unbeaten team in the Big Ten and gained when Ohio State lost. Texas Tech, to 50, beat Arizona and is tied for second in the Big 12 at 4-1. Wake Forest, to 32, won by 44, and SMU’s loss makes Wake the clear favorite to face Miami in the ACC title game.

Georgia and Indiana rise 4 each; Ole Miss rises 4. Georgia, to 88, won its rivalry game by 19 and is tied for the SEC lead. Indiana, to 78, did not play well, but Ohio State’s loss opens up its Big Ten path; FPI’s playoff number for the Hoosiers is 84.6 percent. Ole Miss, to 40, won by 30 without its best running back.

Notre Dame and BYU rise 2 each; Miami rises 1; Missouri rises 2. Notre Dame (78) and BYU (58) won games they were expected to win. Miami (95) won but showed a defensive problem. Missouri (8) won on the road and now hosts Texas.

Off-week teams held. Alabama (58), Kentucky (48), LSU (40), Tennessee (28) and Houston (14) did not play and did not move.

In and out. USC enters at 14. That is down 19 from its preseason 33 but up from the field, where it sat last week. Florida drops out of the table, from 14 into the field: the loss to Georgia was its third, and we said a loss would leave it with its best case already made. The field line falls from 1.40 to 1.13. Arizona, Northwestern, SMU, Oklahoma State and Wisconsin, all in the field, lost, and that is where most of this week’s gains came from. The Group of Six line falls slightly, from 1.10 to 1.06; the reason is in the next section.

What the Committee Will Have to Argue About

The 13-member selection committee starts meeting Monday and releases its first ranking Tuesday at 7 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, the first of six. Its protocol tells it to pick the best teams and seed them, and it allows the committee to consider things like the unavailability of key players. That last part may matter more this year than usual. Here are the arguments we expect in the room this week, and the ones coming later. Most of the facts below come from ESPN’s committee projection.

This week

• How far Ohio State falls. The Buckeyes lost by one at Texas with Sayin and by 12 at USC without him. The committee has to decide whether it is ranking the team that went 6-1 or the one that played Saturday. ESPN projects Ohio State 10th, right behind Texas, on the head-to-head. We have it ninth, also behind Texas.
• Whether USC’s win counts for more than USC’s losses. USC beat Ohio State convincingly, but it also lost to Oregon and Wisconsin, and neither may be in the committee’s top 25. If the committee honors the head-to-head, USC becomes one of its top two-loss teams. If not, USC lands behind Ohio State, as it does in ours.
• BYU or Notre Dame. BYU beat Notre Dame 28-24 and both are 7-1. But BYU’s loss at UCF is worse than Notre Dame’s loss at BYU, and ESPN Analytics has Notre Dame in the top three in offensive and defensive efficiency, with BYU outside the top 12 in both. The committee doesn’t have to honor a head-to-head result if it decides the teams aren’t comparable. We think it will this week, as we do.
• What to do with unbeaten teams that haven’t played anyone. UCLA is 8-0 and second in ESPN’s strength of record, but its opponents’ combined winning percentage ranks 114th, and it is outside the top 30 in offensive efficiency. Utah is 8-0 with one ranked opponent, though it is one of the more explosive teams in the country. Being unbeaten has never guaranteed a high spot in this committee’s rankings.
• Kentucky’s résumé against Kentucky’s play. Kentucky entered its bye leading the country in strength of record with the eighth-hardest schedule. It also ranks outside the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency and has won by an average of 8.1 points. ESPN projects it eighth. We have it 13th. Where the committee puts Kentucky will tell us which of those two things it values more.
• Georgia’s home loss and soft early schedule. Georgia has wins at Alabama and over Florida, but it lost at home to Auburn, and its schedule was the weakest in the SEC going into Saturday. The question is whether it is the committee’s top one-loss team or just one of several.
• Miami’s schedule. Miami is the clearest No. 1 on the board, but its schedule ranked 60th going into Saturday, and the win at North Carolina won’t help much. Some members could see Georgia as the better team.
• Indiana’s quality loss. Indiana has no wins over teams currently ranked, and its offense has struggled for a month. Its best argument is that the four-point home loss to Ohio State came with Sayin playing. That argument depends on the committee also believing Ohio State is weaker now, which cuts both ways.
• Sorting the two-loss SEC teams. Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, Alabama and Tennessee are all 6-2, and the results among them form a web: Texas beat Ole Miss and Tennessee, Ole Miss beat LSU, Tennessee beat Alabama. Florida beat Texas and Ole Miss, and Florida is now 5-3. ESPN projects Texas, Ole Miss and LSU into its 12 and leaves Alabama and Tennessee out.
• The Group of Six spot. Boise State is the frontrunner, but Madsen’s knee injury came three days before the first ranking. The committee will rank the team it has watched, and how much it discounts Boise for the injury is something we won’t know until later rankings.

Coming later

• Miami at Notre Dame. If Notre Dame loses, it has two losses, no conference title to fall back on and SMU still to play. If Miami loses, ESPN notes it can still get in as the ACC champion. If Wake Forest then beats Miami in the ACC title game, the league could get two teams, with Miami holding a win over the eventual champion.
• Two Big 12 teams. BYU and Utah meet Saturday and could meet again in the Big 12 title game. If the results split, the runner-up would have a two-loss case that includes a win over the league champion.
• Ohio State going forward. Every week Fahey plays, the committee gets more evidence about the Buckeyes without Sayin. Oregon this week and Michigan to close are the tests. A third loss would probably make the injury argument moot.
• A possible SEC cycle. If Kentucky beats Tennessee, then Kentucky beat Tennessee, Tennessee beat Alabama and Alabama beat Kentucky. No order respects all three results, and the committee would have to pick one to break, as we did with Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri.
• Texas or LSU. They meet in Baton Rouge on November 14th. If both still have two losses, ESPN expects that game to decide which one gets an at-large bid. LSU has the toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
• Who wins the Big Ten. UCLA is alone in first and doesn’t play Ohio State or Indiana. If the Bruins reach the title game unbeaten and lose, the committee will have to decide what a 12-1 team with that schedule is worth against two-loss teams with better wins.
• Margin of victory. The committee caps margin at 24 points, so blowouts like Utah’s 49-25 and Wake Forest’s 51-7 count for less than they look. Close wins, like Indiana’s two in overtime, count as wins, but they don’t help a team’s case.

The Group of Six Race

Boise State is still the clear favorite for the Group of Six spot, but for the first time this season the question is about its quarterback rather than its schedule. Two of the teams chasing it, James Madison and Oregon State, lost this week, and New Mexico and UTSA are the only ones left with a real chance of passing Boise if it stumbles.

Team	Record	League	Vs. ranked	FPI	SP+	Résumé SP+	Playoff %
Boise State	7-1	4-0 Pac-12	0-1	32nd	31st	15th	61.9
New Mexico	7-1	4-0 MW	0-1	46th	32nd	20th	15.2
UTSA	7-1	4-0 American	0-1	70th	59th	29th	16.3
Liberty	7-1	4-0 CUSA	0-0	49th	28th	17th	4.3
North Texas	6-2	4-0 American	0-1	61st	66th	35th	2.0
James Madison	7-2	4-2 Sun Belt	0-0	55th	33rd	31st	0.0
Oregon State	5-3	3-1 Pac-12	0-2	53rd	49th	42nd	0.1

 

FPI ranks and playoff percentages (each team’s chance of making the 12-team field) are from ESPN’s FPI, updated November 1st. SP+ and résumé SP+ ranks are from ESPN’s SP+ as of Sunday, November 1st. Records against ranked teams use the AP poll. North Texas replaces North Dakota State (7-2, 0.0 percent).

Who is best. FPI still says Boise State, by a wide margin: its rating is about 5 points better than New Mexico’s, about 6 better than Liberty’s and about 7.5 better than James Madison’s. SP+ sees it much more tightly. Liberty, up 17 spots, is the top Group of Six team at 28th, then Boise State 31st, New Mexico 32nd and James Madison 33rd, four teams within about a point and a quarter of each other. Résumé SP+ still has Boise first in the group (15th), with Liberty 17th and New Mexico 20th. Liberty’s and New Mexico’s schedules rank 130th and 126th in SP+; Boise’s ranks 61st. Both ratings were set with Madsen at quarterback, and that matters this week.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. Boise State. FPI gives it a 61.9 percent chance of making the field, up from 47.6 a week ago, and a 72.1 percent chance of winning the Pac-12. ESPN’s committee projection puts Boise in its bracket as the 12th seed. What changed is Madsen. Boise was trailing by 11 when he went out, and Cutforth won the game, which is a point in Boise’s favor. But the line we have printed for weeks is that the one thing that could change the race is Oregon State on November 14th. Now it is the knee.

Who else. New Mexico is 7-1, 4-0 in the Mountain West and has won five straight; its only loss is 14-6 at Oklahoma. FPI gives it a 66.1 percent chance of winning the league. UTSA is 7-1 and 4-0 in the American, with its only loss to Texas, but North Texas is also 4-0 in the league, and FPI splits the title almost evenly among three teams (34.8 percent for North Texas, 33.6 for UTSA, 25.1 for Memphis). Liberty is 7-1 and 4-0 in Conference USA, and FPI gives it an 80.3 percent chance to win the league, but its schedule ranks 130th in SP+. James Madison lost at home to Troy on Thursday after turning it over five times; it has two losses and FPI’s playoff chance is now 0.0. It is no longer the East leader in the Sun Belt by percentage; Georgia Southern is 3-1 to the Dukes’ 4-2, although FPI still makes James Madison the favorite in the division (61.8 percent). Oregon State lost at Fresno State and has three losses.

Our split. We trim the Group of Six line from 1.10 to 1.06. The line is mostly the one guaranteed spot plus a small chance of a second team as an at-large. That small chance fell when James Madison and Oregon State lost. Of the 1.06, Boise State gets about 0.58 (up from 0.55, since two challengers lost, held down by Madsen’s injury), New Mexico 0.22 (up from 0.20), UTSA 0.12 (unchanged after a bye), Oregon State 0.03 (down from 0.08), James Madison 0.02 (down from 0.08) and the rest 0.09 (up from 0.07, with Liberty, North Texas and Louisiana Tech all winning).

This week. Boise State goes to Colorado State, and the first thing to watch is who plays quarterback. New Mexico plays at Nevada on Friday night. James Madison goes to Southern Miss on Thursday. Texas State, the team that nearly beat Boise, goes to Oregon State.

Conference Projections

These are our chances of each team winning its conference. Changes from last week are in bold.

ACC. Miami 75, Wake Forest 16 (up 5), SMU 3 (down 4), Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 1, Duke 1. SMU’s loss at Syracuse drops it to 4-2 in the league and two games behind Miami. Wake Forest is 5-1 and has the clearer path to the title game; it still goes to SMU, but SMU now needs help. The field point comes off with SMU’s chances. Miami won but holds, because North Carolina scored 35 on its defense. FPI: Miami 75.4, Wake Forest 20.7, Louisville 1.9, SMU 1.8.

SEC. Georgia 43 (up 3), Kentucky 15, Alabama 12, Ole Miss 9 (up 1), LSU 7, Texas 6, Tennessee 5, Missouri 2, field 1 (down 2). Florida drops from 2 to 0 (down 2) with its third conference loss. Georgia is tied with Kentucky at 5-1 and holds the tiebreaker over Alabama, which it beat in Tuscaloosa. Saturday at Ole Miss is the biggest step left. Alabama still holds the tiebreaker over Kentucky. Kentucky’s number is far above FPI’s because it is tied for first; Saturday at Tennessee decides whether that number holds. FPI: Georgia 41.8, Alabama 16.8, Ole Miss 12.2, LSU 11.7, Kentucky 6.8, Texas 6.5.

Big Ten. Ohio State 34 (down 10), Indiana 32 (up 6), UCLA 22 (up 6), USC 3 (up 2), Iowa 2, Oregon 1, Wisconsin 1 (down 2), Northwestern 1 (down 1), Nebraska 0 (down 1), field 4. UCLA is alone in first at 5-0 and does not play Ohio State or Indiana. Indiana is 5-1. Ohio State is 4-1 and still holds the tiebreaker over Indiana. That is why the Buckeyes stay barely ahead, even after Saturday. USC is 4-2 and still goes to Indiana. FPI: Ohio State 42.8, Indiana 38.0, UCLA 11.5, USC 2.6, Oregon 2.6.

Big 12. Utah 44 (up 4), Texas Tech 24 (up 4), BYU 23, Houston 4, Arizona 3 (down 3), Oklahoma State 1 (down 2), Baylor 1, field 0 (down 3). Utah is 5-0. Texas Tech and BYU are 4-1, and Texas Tech plays neither Utah nor BYU, which is why it edges BYU here. Arizona and Oklahoma State each have two league losses. BYU at Utah decides the most likely title-game matchup. FPI: Utah 48.4, Texas Tech 21.6, BYU 17.1, Houston 6.2, Arizona 4.3.

Pac-12. Boise State 70 (up 2), Oregon State 17 (down 3), Fresno State 7 (up 3), Texas State 3 (down 1), San Diego State 1, Utah State 1, Colorado State 1, Washington State 0 (down 1). Boise is 4-0. Oregon State lost at Fresno State and is 3-1. Fresno State is 2-2 but beat the team most likely to face Boise. Boise’s number would be higher without the Madsen injury. FPI: Boise State 72.1, Oregon State 17.1, Fresno State 5.7, Texas State 4.1.

Conference Overviews

We still rank the nine leagues SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, Pac-12, American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, MAC. FPI’s top 25 has 10 SEC teams, seven from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12, three from the ACC and Notre Dame. SP+’s top 25 has eight teams from the SEC, eight from the Big Ten, four each from the Big 12 and ACC, and Notre Dame. Kentucky is 34th in SP+.

SEC. The league’s top four (Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Ole Miss) are a combined 26-6. Georgia and Kentucky lead at 5-1, with Alabama and Ole Miss at 4-2. This week has three games between teams in our top 15: Georgia at Ole Miss, Alabama at LSU and Kentucky at Tennessee, plus Texas at Missouri. FPI puts five SEC teams in its top nine. The bottom is weak: Arkansas and Vanderbilt are a combined 1-9 in league play.

Big Ten. UCLA leads at 5-0, Indiana is 5-1 and Ohio State is 4-1. USC is 4-2 and back in the race on paper. The league’s two best teams by FPI, Ohio State and Indiana, have both looked vulnerable for a month, and its only unbeaten team ranks 28th in FPI. Iowa’s 30-0 win over Wisconsin and Oregon’s win over Northwestern shuffled the middle. Maryland and Michigan State are winless in the league.

Big 12. Utah is 5-0, BYU and Texas Tech are 4-1, and four teams are 3-2. Cincinnati, CBS’s “agent of chaos,” was handled by Utah and goes to Houston next. Baylor’s 41-9 win over UCF, under an interim coach, suggests the middle of this league is still unsettled.

ACC. Miami is 6-0 and Wake Forest 5-1. Louisville and SMU are 4-2. SMU’s loss to Syracuse makes this a two-team league at the top. North Carolina took Miami to the last minute and Syracuse beat SMU, but the league still has only three teams in FPI’s top 25.

Pac-12. Boise State is 4-0 and Oregon State 3-1. The league’s FPI average is still the best of the Group of Six leagues: −2.3, with a median of −2.15. Only two of its eight teams are below 100th in FPI. Only one Pac-12 team, Boise State at 32nd, is now in FPI’s top 50; Oregon State is 53rd.

American. UTSA and North Texas are both 4-0, with Memphis 4-1. The league’s FPI average is −6.1 and its median −4.6, and five of its 14 teams are below 100th. Memphis (54th) is its best team in FPI.

Mountain West. New Mexico is 4-0 and Wyoming 4-1. North Dakota State is 4-2. The FPI average is −9.0, the median −8.85, and five of 10 teams are below 100th. Northern Illinois is 0-8.

Sun Belt. Louisiana Tech leads the West at 4-0. Georgia Southern leads the East at 3-1, ahead of James Madison at 4-2 by percentage. The FPI average is −9.2, the median −9.2, and eight of 14 teams are below 100th.

MAC. Ohio is 4-0 and Western Michigan 4-1. The FPI average is −15.2 and the median −14.7, and 10 of 13 teams are below 100th. FPI rates Toledo (36.0 percent) and Western Michigan (34.7) as the favorites over Ohio (20.1).

SP+ agrees with the order. Its Group of Six averages and medians by league: Pac-12 −2.3 and −2.6, American −4.9 and −3.65, Mountain West −6.8 and −6.2, Sun Belt −7.9 and −8.95, Conference USA −9.8 and −12.1, MAC −13.1 and −14.4. SP+ has three Pac-12 teams below 100th, four from the American, four from the Mountain West, eight from the Sun Belt and nine from the MAC. The Pac-12 (Boise State 31st, Oregon State 49th) and the Mountain West (New Mexico 32nd, North Dakota State 35th) each have two teams in SP+’s top 50.

The Week 10 Board

Game	Kickoff / TV	Spread	ESPN %	Total
No. 7 BYU at No. 4 Utah	Sat 12:00 ABC	UTAH -4.5	65.7%	48.5
No. 10 Texas at No. 20 Missouri	Sat 12:00 ESPN	TEX -3.5	71.3%	48.5
No. 9 Alabama at No. 15 LSU	Sat 3:30 ABC	LSU -4.5	57.0%	52.5
No. 8 Kentucky at No. 16 Tennessee	Sat 6:15 ESPN	TENN -5.5	66.8%	50.5
No. 1 Miami at No. 3 Notre Dame	Sat 7:30 NBC	ND -3.5	61.3%	55.5
No. 2 Georgia at No. 12 Ole Miss	Sat 7:30 ABC	UGA -3	55.5%	56.5

 

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings. The percentages are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor; each is the favorite’s chance of winning. Rankings are CBS’s projection of Sunday’s AP poll, since the real poll was not out when this was written. All games are Saturday, November 7th.

The biggest split between the models and the market is Texas at Missouri. ESPN gives Texas a 71.3 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make Texas about a 7.5-point favorite, but the line is 3.5. Georgia at Ole Miss goes the other way: FPI’s ratings make Georgia only about a 1.5-point favorite, against a 3-point line. FPI also has Alabama–LSU closer than the market (about 2.5, against 4.5). Miami–Notre Dame is the game where the market and FPI agree most closely (about 3, against 3.5). SP+’s ratings make Utah about a 5.5-point favorite, Texas about 4, LSU about 6.5, Tennessee about 10, Notre Dame about 3.5 and Georgia about 8.5. The two models split against the line in three games: Alabama–LSU, Miami–Notre Dame and Georgia–Ole Miss. The biggest is Georgia, where SP+ has the Bulldogs by about 8.5 and FPI by about 1.5.

Predictions

Utah 27, BYU 20. FPI’s ratings make Utah about a 6-point favorite at home, a little more than the 4.5-point line, and ESPN gives the Utes a 65.7 percent chance of winning. SP+’s ratings make it about 5.5, also above the line. Utah just scored 42 in a half against a team that beat Texas Tech; BYU let Arizona State back into its game in the second half and got one touchdown from a replay ruling the Big 12 says was wrong. BYU’s defense, six sacks on Saturday, is what keeps this close. Utah wins and covers. Under 48.5.

What it means. This is the end of our promise. We have kept BYU ahead of Utah for weeks because we said we would wait for this game. The winner leads the Big 12 race and takes the higher spot in our ranking. ESPN’s committee column points out that both teams could still get in, with a rematch in the Big 12 title game: the loser of Saturday would have a case as a two-loss runner-up if it wins in Arlington.

Texas 24, Missouri 17. FPI’s ratings make Texas about a 7.5-point favorite on the road, and ESPN gives Texas a 71.3 percent chance, both well above the 3.5-point line. SP+’s ratings make it about 4, just above it. The Texas defense has carried it for two weeks; the offense was sacked six times by Mississippi State and is running poorly. Missouri got Ahmad Hardy back. But Texas has three wins over teams in our top 14, and Missouri’s two losses include a 31-3 loss to Ole Miss. Texas wins and covers. Under 48.5.

What it means. Three of Texas’s last four games are on the road, with LSU next. A loss here would be its third, and with LSU still ahead, its at-large case would be in serious trouble. A Missouri win would put it into our top 15 and the playoff conversation.

LSU 27, Alabama 24. FPI’s ratings make LSU only about a 2.5-point favorite at home, less than the 4.5-point line; ESPN gives LSU a 57 percent chance of winning. SP+’s ratings make it about 6.5, more than the line, so the models split. We are going with FPI and a closer game. LSU had a bye to prepare for three straight ranked opponents. Alabama also had a week off, but it was without its top corner, Zabien Brown, in its last game and had a player suspended. We think LSU wins a close game. LSU wins, Alabama covers. Under 52.5.

What it means. The loser has three losses. That would almost certainly end its playoff case, and for LSU it would come with Texas and Tennessee still to play.

Tennessee 27, Kentucky 20. FPI’s ratings make Tennessee about a 6-point favorite, about the same as the 5.5-point line; ESPN gives the Vols a 66.8 percent chance. SP+’s ratings make it about 10; SP+ has Tennessee 11th and Kentucky 34th. Kentucky entered its bye leading the country in ESPN’s strength-of-record metric and has won six straight, but its wins have come by an average of 8.1 points. Its pass defense allows almost 240 yards a game. Tennessee wins and covers. Under 50.5.

What it means. This settles our biggest disagreement with the outside view. A Tennessee win confirms the order we have held, with Tennessee ahead of Alabama and Kentucky. A Kentucky win puts Kentucky ahead of Tennessee, but Alabama beat Kentucky by 28 and Tennessee beat Alabama by 16. That would be a three-team cycle, like the one with Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri, and we would have to break one result and explain which.

Notre Dame 30, Miami 27. FPI’s ratings make Notre Dame about a 3-point favorite at home, almost exactly the 3.5-point line; ESPN gives the Irish a 61.3 percent chance. SP+’s ratings make it about 3.5, right on the line. Miami is still first in offensive SP+, and it has two Heisman candidates in Mensah and Toney. Its defense just gave up 35 to North Carolina, with soft coverage and missed tackles, according to its own coach. Notre Dame’s defense was slow to start against Navy and then held the Midshipmen to 56 yards in the second half. We think Notre Dame wins at home by a field goal, which means Miami covers. Over 55.5.

What it means. A Notre Dame loss would give it two, with SMU still to play and no conference title to fall back on. Last week we wrote that losing to Navy would end any argument for a bye; a loss to Miami would make the field itself the question. A Miami loss is less damaging. ESPN notes it would still be the ACC favorite and could reach the field as the league champion, though it would almost certainly lose the top seed.

What it means, part two. This is a rematch of last year’s game, which ended up deciding a playoff spot between these two teams. Whoever wins goes into the committee’s second ranking with a win the committee will find hard to look past.

Georgia 26, Ole Miss 24. FPI’s ratings make Georgia only about a 1.5-point favorite on the road, less than the 3-point line; ESPN gives Georgia a 55.5 percent chance. SP+’s ratings make it about 8.5, well above the line, and SP+ now has Georgia first in the country. This is the biggest split between the models on the board, and we are siding with FPI because of Georgia’s passing game. Georgia’s defense is the reason to pick it: four takeaways against Florida, and CBS notes it has already held Alabama’s Keelon Russell in check. Its passing game, 101 yards against one of the worst pass defenses in the SEC, is the reason not to lay three on the road against an Ole Miss offense that just converted 13 of 16 third downs. Georgia wins, Ole Miss covers. Under 56.5.

What it means. A Georgia loss would be its second in the SEC and would likely cost it a bye. A third loss for Ole Miss would end its playoff case, as we wrote last week.

This week’s tally. Six favorites straight up. Against the spread, three favorites (Utah, Texas, Tennessee) and three underdogs (Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss). Five unders and one over.