3 Up, 3 Down – May 23, 2022

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week will highlight the performances of the series’ against the Yankees and Rays.

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3 Up

Adley Rutschman – .250/.400/.500 (.900), 1 R, 1 triple, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 8 AB

This was pretty much guaranteed as soon as it was announced he would be making his major league debut on Saturday morning. Coming off of back to back walk off wins on homeruns the Orioles kept the party going by calling up the best prospect in baseball a day or four later than fans expected. The buzz was immediate and outside of some puzzling complaints about the timing (who cares, he’s here people!) it was the most positive and excited I’ve seen Orioles Twitter in quite a while. It was an event that signaled something more than just a great prospect making his debut during a losing season to give fans a boost. Combined with quotes from general manager Mike Elias about “blue skies ahead” and more top prospects expected to debut fairly soon as well it felt like a turning point in the direction the team. When the Orioles next make the playoffs it is very possible May 21th is looked at as the first day in the journey to get there. Rutschman struck out in his first at bat but that would be the only time he did over his first 10 plate appearances. His first hit came in the 7th inning when he smacked a triple down the right field line, weirdly joining Manny Machado and Matt Wieters (and Ryan McKenna) as highly anticipated prospects whose first major league hits happened to be a triple. He also worked a walk in his first game as a major leaguer and might already have the best at bats on the team. He has a great eye, works the count well only swinging at pitches he thinks he can drive until there are two strikes, and has enough bat control to feel comfortable hitting with two strikes. In his second game he hit a single and was hit by a pitch over six plate appearances as the designated hitter but most notably came into the game to catch when the Orioles lost the DH due to Austin Hays’ game tying pinch hit single. Adley was behind the plate for both of Cionel Perez’s scoreless extra innings and they built some instant chemistry celebrating the accomplishment. He also happened to score the game winning run in the bottom of the 11th. You can already see the leadership qualities Rutschman possesses and that should only grow as he gets comfortable at this level. Its going to be fun to watch.

Anthony Santander – .267/.333/.633 (.966), 6 R, 2 doubles, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 30 AB

I spoke about back to back walk off homeruns and Santander got the fun started Thursday afternoon to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Yankees. After Felix Bautista came in with the bases loaded in the top of the 9th trying to hold onto a one run lead and then walked in the game tying run, Santander snuck a game winning two run homer over the new left field wall near the foul pole in the bottom of the inning. He also played a big role in the next comeback win that ultimately ended in a walk off homerun as well. After the Rays took a two run lead in the top of the 10th he hit a two run single to tie it back up. The team would go on to win thanks to Rougned Odor’s second homerun of the season and Odor is a guy that could’ve easily been on the ‘3 Up’ list as well. He batted .333 with an OPS of 1.047 thanks to three doubles, a triple, and that game winning homerun. Back to Santander who has seen his ridiculous walk rate come back down to earth in May (6.9%) after being 18.4% in April, three times his career high, but he has also hit for more power as a trade-off. In the same number of plate appearances for April and May he has an extra double and homerun in the current month. Its not much but for a player who will never hit for a high average its an important part of his game. Overall I do think he has rebounded from his disappointing 2021 and recouped a lot of the value he had after the COVID shortened 2020 season. That should either lead to increased trade value and inevitably a trade before the deadline or maybe it gives the Orioles the idea to keep him around a little longer.

Keegan Akin – 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 6 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 0.67 WHIP

Akin has been amazing this year working out of the bullpen in a multi-inning role. It might honestly be the biggest surprise of the season for me. After posting a 6.63 ERA over 95 innings mostly as a starter in 2021 and not performing well in spring training leading up to the season I thought there was a good chance he wouldn’t be on the opening day roster. Luckily the Orioles must have picked up on something he was doing differently because all of a sudden his walk rate has nearly been cut in half (9.4% to 5%) and his strikeout rate (19.2% to 22%) and hard hit rate (42.9% to 31.5%) have improved. I always thought Akin could be a solid reliever when inevitably moved to that role but I never imagined he’d be this good. The fastball has played up in shorter stints as expected, averaging 93.2 mph in 2022 versus 92 mph in 2021, and he has improved his slider. Apparently Jordan Lyles taught him a new grip and it has resulted in more break and more command. He has pretty much dropped his curveball which batters hit .313 off of last season, instead increasing his usage of the new slider. Most importantly is the fact that he is just pounding the strike zone. A guy with command issues in the past now has a walk rate in the top 18% of the league and a chase rate in the top 22%. For the season he has a 1.33 ERA (and a still great 2.97 expected ERA) over 27 innings with 22 strikeouts and only five walks. Some might have the thought to shift him back into the rotation to see if he can continue his newfound success in that role but I’m glad the team seems to be keeping him where he is at. I think he has found a role that is becoming increasingly valuable and I could also see a guy like Michael Baumann working well in it.

3 Down

Jorge Mateo – .050/.095/.050 (.145), 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 SB, 20 AB

Mateo has shown flashes of brilliance in his time with the Orioles since they claimed him off of waivers from the San Diego Padres last season. He can hit the ball hard, he just doesn’t do it consistently, and he showed an improved eye at the plate in spring training this year and early in the season only to see that drop like a rock back to career norms. Luckily his speed never slumps so bare minimum he can be an important role player on a contending team with the ability to steal bases (11 for 12 this year) and take an extra base in late and close situations. His defense at shortstop has really been on display as the season has gone on, another reason he is getting regular at bats despite hitting .212 with a .578 OPS on the season. With no real competition close to major league ready in the organization it should be his position for the rest of the season. Ramon Urias can play shortstop but he is limited out there particularly with his arm but he is better suited for second or third base and has had his own struggles at the plate this season. Despite not providing much value at all when standing in the batters box he still has 0.5 fWAR on the season, one of the best numbers on the team.

Cedric Mullins –.185/.258/.185 (.443), 2 R, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 SB, 27 AB

Despite the recent slump Mullins still has an above average wRC+ (107) and is tied for third on the team in fWAR (0.8) behind only Austin Hays and Bruce Zimmermann. He isn’t walking nearly enough for a leadoff hitter (5.9%, down from 8.7% last season) and is in the bottom 16% of the league when it comes to chasing pitches outside of the strike zone. If 2021 didn’t happen Orioles fans would be very happy with his production but since it did and raised expectations for his career going forward (rightfully so) it looks like a big disappointment when you scan the teams stat lines. He is still hitting for some power (eight doubles, one triple, five homeruns) and has eight steals out of 10 chances which puts him on a 20 homerun, 30 steal pace. With the offensive environment the way it is this with whatever is going on with the baseballs plus humidors in every ballpark he is still performing well for a starting center fielder. His splits aren’t much different than they were last year, similar batting average and on-base percentage against righties and lefties but a little less power when facing left handed pitching. Seems like the same guy that broke out in 2021 just without the flaming hot stretches so far and a lower walk rate. Maybe he eventually gets shifted down the lineup over the next couple of years but for now he should be leading off 95+% of games for the rest of 2022.

Spenser Watkins – 0-1, 11.25 ERA, 4 IP, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 HBP, 3 BB, 1 K, 2.50 WHIP

I hate to pick on Watkins in back to back weeks but it just hasn’t been going very well for the 29 year old right handed pitcher. Especially on Sunday when he was knocked out of the game against the Rays in the first inning without recording an out. A fairly depleted bullpen was tasked with getting through what ended up being 11 innings and luckily they continued to be a strength for this team and did so successfully. It was 4-0 by the time the Orioles offense had a chance to bat and while obviously it isn’t Watkins’ fault he was hit in his pitching arm by a line drive that was 105.9 mph off of the bat, it was another slow start allowing three consecutive hits to open the game. He also only made it four innings earlier in the week against the Yankees in a game the Orioles ultimately lost 5-4. When you’re only striking out 4.2 batters per nine innings and you give up some of the hardest contact in the league, not to mention having more walks than strikeouts on the season, that is not going to last long as a starting pitcher in the major leagues. Watkins was key in getting the team some innings with a solid start to the year over his first four or five starts but now will likely be placed on the injured list and by the time he comes back his spot in the rotation should be filled by top pitching prospect in baseball Grayson Rodriguez. There are some things he has improved from last year so maybe he can settle in as a multi-inning reliever similar to Keegan Akin but it is becoming an increasingly competitive role on the team with more and more talented arms vying for the position.