44 Games Until The Trade Deadline

Currently the O’s are 31-37, 4th place in the AL East, 10GB of Tampa Bay and New York.

They’re 2 games behind Toronto and Texas who are tired for the 3rd WC, with the Athletics also a game and a half ahead of Baltimore.

The O’s have been outscored by 35 runs, and have lost their last 4 games.
They are 7th overall in runs scored, 11th in slugging, and 13th in on-base %.
Baltimore is 24th overall in era.

Including tonight, the Orioles have 44 games scheduled before the August 3rd Trade Deadline.

Last year, the 2nd AL Wild Card won 89 games (.549 winning percentage), and the 3rd AL Wild Card won 87 games (.537 winning percentage).

The O’s will have played 112 games by the deadline (68 games played already, 44 games remaining).
To be on a 88 win pace (a .542 winning percentage) by August 3rd, the O’s will have to be 61-51 on August 3rd.
That means the O’s would need to go 30-14 ( a .681 winning percentage) over these next 44 games.

Now you can rightfully argue the O’s wouldn’t need to be at a 88 win pace on August 3rd.
They could go 57-37 (a .606 winning percentage) the rest of the way and arrive at the same year end 88 win level.
A .606 winning percentage over the next 44 games would have the O’s going a more reasonable 27-17 for that stretch.

But they’re at a point where they would have to put together a scorching 40-50 games, or sustained high quality over the remaining 94 games to be in position to earn their way to the post-season.

Some quick hits on the roster, and Front Office.

Gunnar Henderson

We’re nearing the middle of June, and the 24 year old has an OPS under .700.
Over the weekend, WBAL Radio said he was 2nd in baseball in 3 pitch strikeouts.
Clearly the year hasn’t gone to plan for the young SS.
As Gunnar’s struggles have extended, I’ve started to think about Nick Markakis.
Markakis had an outstanding career with the O’s and Braves. 15 years, just under 2,400 career hits.
Outstanding RF, and clubhouse presence.
He belongs in the Hall of Very Good.
I’m not disparaging Markakis at all, to say that as good as his career was; I had higher aspirations for him after his first 2 or 3 seasons.
In those first few seasons he looked more like a star vs. a very strong complimentary piece.
And I’ve thought about Nick, because I’m wondering if my expectations for Gunnar will also prove off – or if this subpar stretch will be a blip on his career record?
In 2024, Gunnar put up a 7.9 fWAR season. He made the game look easy.
Now he’s facing some adversity for likely the first time in his whole baseball playing career.
All of me believes he’s too talented to not be productive.
He dealt with right-should impingement in 2025, never looked right, and still posted a 4.8 fWAR season.
He’s generally struggled so far this year, and his current 1.6 fWAR still is 51st amongst all MLB position players.
The floor to me is that he gets out of this funk, and is a regular All-Star caliber player for years.
Does he get back to ’24 levels, and look like a guy that will perennially be in the MVP consideration?
We will see.
In the immediate, the O’s need him to flip a switch, and give the team more now.
One of the things about Gunnar that stood out in ’23 and ’24, is that he just looked like a guy that loves to play.
Right now, he looks like he has the weight of the world on him.
That is the burden of expectations – both externally and internally.
He’s the O’s best overall talent.
If he puts up a strong 44 games, the O’s will be in better shape at the deadline then they are today.
And if this rough stretch continues for him, it will be difficult for the O’s to overcome that.
If he agreed to an extension offer now, would that help ease the burden he is carrying in his shoulders?
Would he consider negotiating now?
Is he fully committed to reaching Free Agency and testing the market after the ’28 season?

Pete Alonso

The O’s locked Alonso up through the 2030 season.

He’s 31 now, 32 in December.
With a natural / expected aging-curve; 2026 is probably the best version of Alonso we see in an O’s uniform.

The defense has been better than advertised.
The players have pointed to his leadership.

The numbers aren’t horrible by any means, but they’re also not enough.
He’s carrying a .756 OPS into the game tonight (.850 for his career).
April was rough, May was good, June so-far a slight step-back.
The O’s could really use him to get on an extended run.
Also could use him to start giving the O’s more vs. LHP.

Adley Rutschman

Over 48 games, and 180 ab’s, he’s got a .832 OPS.  That’s a big jump from the last 2 years, and slightly above what we saw from him over ’22 and ’23.
After 37 doubles combined over the ’24 and ’25 season, he’s got 14 currently.
He did hit into some bad luck last year, but I think his approach has been improved here in ’26.
He’s missed the last 2 games going into tonight, and you felt his absence from the lineup.
His play over the next 6 weeks will help tell the story of this O’s team.
We’ve also now reached a point where there has to be real consideration of trading him this Summer if the O’s don’t start playing better.
Rutschman is a FA after the ’27 season.  If you move him by August 3rd, the acquiring team would be getting him with 1.3 years of remaining control.
An in-season move this year figures to bring a bit more than potentially moving him after the season ends.
If the O’s get up and over .500, and are in a Wild Card position at the deadline, Rutschman won’t be going anywhere.
But if you get to August 3rd, and the O’s are under .500 and still not looking consistently better; then you’d have to think there is some chance he gets moved.
I’m unsure if the O’s can find a deal that works for them and Henderson.
I do feel like a contract extension with Rutschman is possible.
His resurgence so far this year, coupled with the arrival of Sam Basallo (allowing Rutschman to be positioned for less time behind the plate) makes me more open to a Rutschman extension than I have been previously.

The Rotation

Currently the rotation is Bradish, Rogers, Baz, Young, and Gibson with Bassitt, Kremer, and Povich on the IL.

Bradish was 4th in the Cy Young balloting in ’23, and then limited to 14 combined starts over ’24 and ’25.
He’s made 13 starts this year, and I mostly feel good about him.
The 36 walks has been an issue overall, but he seemed to turn a corner in May posting a 2.80 era over 6 starts.
His first start in June was this past Saturday vs. the Jays, and that was a disappointing outing.
Everyone has tough days, but when you’ve got your best starter on the mound at home with a chance to win a series against a Division rival – it’s a let down when he gets knocked around a bit.
There is a lot riding on his arm. The O’s need him to immediately lock back in like he was in May.
Is it an unfair ask for him to be that strong and consistent each time out, after all of the time missed the last two years?

Rogers last three starts have been an improvement.  5/24, he allowed 4 er over 6 innings, all 4 coming in the 7th, and 6 strong scoreless.
That was followed by 1 er over 5.2 innings in Boston 6/4.  Last night he allowed 3 er over 5.2 innings, all of the runs coming on a 3 run homer in the Seattle 4th.
It was annoying to see that hanging slider crushed, and a crooked inning for the Mariners; but he didn’t collapse and gave the O’s a chance to win.
He’s dropped his era from 6.96 to 6.15 over those 3 outings, but yeah…he still has a 6.15 era.
He’s made 12 starts, and has 60 innings on the year.
If he makes 8 starts over these next 44 games, and continues to average 5 ip a start; he’d still have a 4.65 overall era even if he allows just 10 er over his next 40 innings of work.
Probably the biggest mistake of the off-season was the O’s needing Rogers to be a front-end starter here in ’26. Hoping he’d nearly replicate what he did over 18 starts last year.
Right now, I’m sure the O’s would sign-up for one extended hot 8 game stretch.
If he does that, that will either have better positioned the O’s for a WC run, or have Rogers regaining value as a trade chip if the O’s haven’t put things together overall.

Baz has a 2.13 era over two June starts.  For the year, I think he’s right at what you’d expect. A solid enough mid-rotation starter.
His last 5 starts overall have been very good, and give you some hope he’ll get on a sustained heater.

Young has made 9 very effective starts.  The O’s would be totally lost without his performance year-to-date.
If he can continue to regularly give the O’s a chance to win, that’s significant.
If he were to fall apart, that would also be significant.

Gibson is one of the O’s Top 5 prospects, and has already made 4 starts. With Bassitt joining Kremer on the IL, he’s currently needed.
Only 5 k’s in his initial 17 innings, but only 2 homers allowed too. He’s getting a lot of grounders.
I don’t like having to rely on Gibson in early June, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that he pitches like a league-average 5th starter right now either.

Seems like Kremer is on-pace to return in late June. Kremer had 170+ innings 2 of the last 3 years. After starting this year in the Minors, and suffering the quad injury; he’s had 2 outings for 11 total innings.
Bassitt went on the 15 day IL, retroactive to June 5th. Prior to this year, he had four successive 30+ start seasons with Toronto.
He hasn’t been a disaster with the O’s, but he hasn’t been good.  He might beat Kremer back to the rotation.

Out of that Baz / Young / Gibson / Kremer / Bassitt grouping; the O’s need 3 of them to be regularly reliable.
Baz answers one of those spots.
Have to be encouraged by Young right now.
Kremer has a track-record of being that guy with the O’s.
Bassitt obviously has the track-record overall; with questions about how much he has in the tank at age 37.
If the O’s are in a sell mode at the deadline, Kremer and Bassitt could be on the move.

The O’s chances of getting hot, are basically the tied to whatever odds you give Bradish and Rogers of getting hot.

Basallo, Holliday, Mayo, Cowser

Basallo is out of the lineup tonight with a sore wrist.  We said above it was noticeable the last two nights how the lineup looked different without Rutschman.
The lineup difference is even more pronounced when Basallo is unavailable.  The 21 year old is already a force. He had a .974 OPS in May (77 ab’s).
He’ll be getting more attention, and there will probably be stretches where he again looks 21.  But the talent is obvious to anyone. Ball sounds different off the bat.
His willingness to use the whole field impresses. He has the ability to be a night-to-night difference maker even now in the infancy of his career.

Holliday and Cowser have OPS’s just over .700.  Mayo is at .650.  Cowser has obviously come to life, going 18 for his last 62 (.290, .357, .597).
There will be other stretches where he struggles to make contact, but hopefully this stretch has reminded everyone there is ability there.
The O’s needed his resurgence. The next question for him is will he more time and produce vs. LHP?  Just 13 ab’s vs. LHP so far this year.

Holliday is hitting just .218, but he’s got a .323 on-base %, because he walks. He also hits RHP.  He is just 4 for 22 to start June. Because he has 228 games in the Majors, people forget his age. He’s just 22, and he’s not a finished product. Still, if you are looking for reasons the O’s could get hot, one scenario would be the game slowing down for Holliday and him regularly giving the O’s a lift. He might not be ready to do that, but it’s reasonable to expect some production there.

Mayo had a .716 OPS in May, and has a .717 OPS in June.  Over his last 30 days, he’s got a .875 OPS (69 ab’s, 6 homers). He’s clearly feeling more comfortable, likely helped by not wondering about Westburg returning. Also by getting his name regularly in the lineup.

It would surprise me if anyone says they know exactly what the O’s will get from this quartet the rest of ’26.
They have the ability and youth to swing both ways on the pendulum.

When I see this grouping in the lineup, I see a lineup with extended depth and potential.
It’s not out of the question that this group could just hit, and hit a lot the rest of the way.
It is probably more likely that each will have further growing pains.

Ward, Taveras, Alexander, J. Jackson

As noted above, the O’s are up to 7th overall in runs scored.
There are a lot of guys capable of contributing on a given night.

Ward has a .766 OPS for his career, and a .764 OPS for the season.
He has just 3 homers, but he has 16 doubles, and 58 walks.
The doubles pace will likely slow, and the homer count will likely jump.

Alexander might be my favorite player to watch most nights.
Just like how he plays the game, and his versatility.
I don’t worry about Mayo’s glove at 3rd, knowing that Alexander is available to replace him in close and late situations.

Taveras had a .694 OPS in May, and is just 4 of 25 (.345 OPS) to begin June.
Overall he has a .706 OPS for the season. Much like Young in the rotation, I don’t know where the O’s would be without his contributions so far.
I do wonder if he maybe needs a bit more rest, but he has been a regular before, playing 294 games with Texas in ’23 and ’24.
He’s struggling vs. LHP (.530 OPS, 50 ab’s.)

Jackson was strong in April, and struggled in May.
I like that he continues to be around as insurance for Holliday.

Beavers and O’Neill

Beavers is getting closer to a return. His oblique injury was unfortunate as he seemed to be coming on when he got hurt.
When he returns, I’d assume he’ll get most of his time in RF, but he, Cowser, and Taveras will rotate RF, and Center. Maybe once one of the three will get a game in LF.

I’m not sure where O’Neill’s ab’s come from at that point.
Outside of owed salary, I’m not sure where he fits on the roster.
I will say, I think O’Neill is a better hitter than we’re seeing right now.
He’s got a pitiful .511 OPS in 109 ab’s, with just 4 xbh’s.
His primary issue for his career has been staying available.
When he has been able to stay on the field, he’s been able to hit – with his two healthiest seasons both being 30+ homer years.
Him giving the O’s nothing is hard to watch.
He’s got a .118 / .196 / .137 split vs. LHP over 51 ab’s.

The Bullpen

Helsley threw a live bullpen session Monday.  Him returning should be a lift.

If you were selecting an O’s All-Star representative today, it’s probably Rico Garcia.
Which illustrates the volatility of relievers, but give it up to the 32 year old for his performance.
Already 30 outings, and he’s allowed 9 hits.
If the O’s play doesn’t improve, I could see the O’s trying to cash in and trade him.

Kittredge only has 13.2 innings, and his era is over 7; but for first time since joining the O’s last year, and rejoining them this year – I feel like I’ve seen what the Front Office liked recently.
The game log doesn’t back me up, but I’ve found myself trusting him more.

Cano is destroying RHH, holding them to a .376 OPS over 49 ab’s.

Wells has been rocked at home, and strong on the road.  He’s getting lit up by RHH.

I liked seeing Suarez back, but that 5 er, 2 inning outing in Boston was a disaster.
To his credit, he’s allowed 1 er over his next 4 innings.  Also had just 1 er allowed in 7.2 innings in May.

MASN’s Roch Kubatko had some good quotes today from O’s Manager Craig Albernaz on Anthony Nunez.

It was reported Monday that Felix Bautista began his throwing progression, and there is some thought he could return at some point late in the 2nd half.

If the O’s play well from here to the deadline, it’s likely going to be because the rotation has been solid enough.
If the rotation is solid, then the ‘pen will likely be solid enough too, especially if Helsley is back soon, and gives the ‘pen a bit more order.

But if we get to the deadline and the O’s are in position to ‘go for it’, you’d have to think that adding pen help would be a priority.

Deadline Thoughts

They’ve got a lot of games between now and the deadline.

Chances are they won’t get super hot or collapse.

They’ll likely be in the WC mix.

Elias will take things up to the deadline.

Based on what we’ve seen previously; he will probably trade off some pieces he considers replaceable for lottery tickets and team control.

Would he buy anything of significance?
Maybe if the team is generally pointing up, and he believes the available piece would provide a necessary boost.
But it would have to be right price for him to pay.

I’m not in love with the O’s Top 10 prospects (George, Irish,De Leon, Gibson, Aloy, Mejia, Estrada, Bradfield, Bateman, German); so I’d be pretty comfortable moving most guys not named Aloy to augment this existing roster.

The more likely scenario is that in addition to selling off pieces he considers replaceable / redundant; Elias will look to buy on the fringes… and they’ll largely go with what they have.

I expect they’ll add a reliever.
Kremer can help the rotation.

I’d like to see them be aggressive about adding the best SP they can, but I don’t think Elias will give up substantial team control for a rental.  Especially if the Orioles continue to be up and down to the deadline.

Potential SP Targets?

Wacha is having a good year, but he’s 34 and owed $14M next year.

Skubal is available and the dream. You want to go for it, there’s the guy.
How much player capital would you give up for the FA to be, when the ML roster hasn’t looked good enough for 2 months?
Obviously a healthy Skubal the rest of the way would address a lot of issues.

Casey Mize is the more realistic Detroit target.

Would love McClean, but he’s less realistic than Skubal.
Peralta is a FA to be.  He could be obtainable.

Robbie Ray is a FA to be.  The Savant page is all blue. Cost would be very minimal. Was pretty good last year.

The flip side to my thoughts here is that a total collapse is possible.

The O’s are 6 games under .500.   There is a path to them being in the WC hunt, but things could go completely off the rails too.

At that point, everyone not nailed down with team control could be on the move.

And the larger question would be, do you let Elias orchestrate a sell-off, if this becomes another season of failed expectations which will ultimately cost Elias his job?

As I outlined here, I’d continue to roll with Elias myself.