O’s Roundtable: Orioles Talk in the Heart of Winter

Patrick Dougherty: First and foremost, I would not group Bronson Arroyo in with Santana, Jimenez, and Garza. Arroyo isn’t the potential game changer that the other three are. However, I agree with Jeff in that it’s important to round out the rotation with serviceable major league arms instead of having to rely on Gausman to learn on the job. Adding a good pitcher is never a bad idea. Would it be enough to contend? That’s a different story. The Orioles will have to add at least 5 wins to even make a run at a playoff spot. Assuming no improvement from other players, Garza or Santana would have to be 5 wins better than Gausman to even make it realistic. If Flaherty has the breakout season I’m hoping for and Markakais recovers some and Wieters is not a WYSIWYG, maybe the FA pitcher just needs to be 2-3 wins better than Gausman to get us to 90 total, and that’s very realistic.

As much as I’d like to have a staff like Detroit’s last year, they just don’t come around very often and they’re expensive when they do. I’ve always kind of liked (from the economics and statistics side of it) the Orioles plan to more or less have five #3s. It never works out perfectly, but the idea would be to match up a #3 against the typical 1-5 rotation: usually lose against the 1, mostly lose against the 2, .500 against the 3, mostly win against the 4, and usually win against the 5. That still puts you at 3-2 or 2-3 every five games, good for a .500 season on the very cheap. Adding a #1 or #2 like one of these FAs or Tillman through his development just helps tilt the scales in the Orioles’ favor to go over .500, and those #3s are so much cheaper and more abundant than the #1s and #2s.

Gary Armida: Signing one of those starters would make a big impact on the Orioles’ chances this season. Jimenez has the most upside and is capable of leading a rotation, which is something the Orioles lack. Garza has a history in the East, but health is a concern. Santana and Arroyo are better suited at the back of the rotation. If the Orioles do want to “go all in” they sign Jimenez and take a shot. This allows Gausman to start the year in AAA, unless he has a tremendous spring. I’ll also champion the cause of signing someone like Arroyo. He is a backend of the rotation guy, but he is durable, capable of being league average and will eat innings. Somebody has to pitch those innings. As currently constructed, who in the rotation is a lock for 200 innings?

What do you think of the Tanaka signing, both in terms of the deal for the Yankees and how it affects the rest of the AL East and specifically the Orioles?

Gary Armida: It was a move the Yankees had to make. The whole notion of staying under the cap was largely a media creation. It was obvious that the Yankees had a plan to revamp the team. They revamped the offense and made it more diverse. The rotation needed another big arm and Tanaka seems to fill that bill as most feel he’ll be a solid number 2. And, now that the Yankees are over the tax, you could make the case that they’ll sign a Grant Balfour or someone like him to help out in the bullpen.  For the East, it makes a big separation. The Yankees now are close with the Red Sox and Rays. The divide between those three and the Orioles and Blue Jays is now large. It puts quite a bit of pressure on the Orioles to make some moves, especially those pitching moves we talked about.

Jeff Long: The Tanaka signing makes sense for New York because he’ll be the youngest player on their roster by a full year on opening day. They’re an already old team with little to nothing on the farm. Tanaka gives them a high upside guy who can step in on day one and provide some stability and production. I don’t think he’s worthy of what he got paid, but it’s the Yankees, so I’m not sure it matters. As for the AL East… I think there’s a very good chance all 5 teams win 80+ games.

Patrick Dougherty: Tanaka might be the best pitcher on the Yankees’ roster by the end of the season, but that’s more an indictment of Kuroda and Sabathia than it is praise for Tanaka. Both of those guys have been trending downward and Sabathia specifically lost velocity, a significant issue for an older pitcher. I think adding Tanaka puts the Yankees around 87-89 wins, but doesn’t make them a World Series contender. Losing Cano was a big drop, and adding Ellsbury and McCann really only made up a portion of that loss. Tanaka puts them in the black as far as wins go, but it’s difficult for me to say that he comes in and dominates off the bat.

Of all the small additions this winter, which player has the greatest impact?

Jeff Long: I think that the best player the O’s added this offseason is Ryan Webb. However, I think Peguero has the bigger impact because even a bench bat impacts the season more than a reliever throwing 60 innings would. Peguero will get probably 250 at-bats, pending injuries, but has shown at every stop in the minors that his bat plays. He put up a below league average offensive line once in his minor league career, and that was back in 2008 at the age of 20. The O’s outfield looks crowded, but Peguero is a guy who is poised to contribute in a somewhat limited role, and I think that’s exactly what he’ll do.

Patrick Dougherty: I really want to say Ryan Flaherty, but I’ll stick to answering the question as it’s worded. I think David Lough turns out to be better than expected when his addition was met with either a “meh” or a “who?” from most fans, and Peguero has a decent enough offensive season to justify limited time in the majors. As long as Buck can tell who’s hot and who’s cold, the Frankenstein in left field could be the best offseason addition, especially if it’s built mostly from Lough.

Gary Armida: Can I call it a tie? David Lough will be a nice player who will give some very good defense and hopefully be better than replacement level at the plate. Although I want to say Ryan Webb here, I will go out there a bit and say Buck Showalter gets something good out of Alfredo Aceves. The guy can pitch multiple innings everyday, has pitched in every role, and has had success. Obviously, the big if is his attitude, but if Showalter can get to him and make him feel valuable, Aceves will be a big part of the bullpen.

Dan Duquette has hinted that the O’s have another $15-20MM to spend this offseason. How would you spend that money if you were DD?

Note: Matt Garza agreed to a contract with the Milwaukee Brewers during this roundtable discussion.

Patrick Dougherty: I’d get one starting pitcher. A SP can have a really big impact on a game and a season, and winning teams are built around their rotation. With the 40-man roster already full (IIRC), it’s going to be hard to sell me on adding a handful of players that can be moved around to get platoon production equal to One Good Player. There just isn’t enough room to continue making moves from the minors to the majors and from the 40-man to the 25-man to the waiver wire. I’m not in on Jimenez because of his control, or lack thereof, so I’d say either Garza or Santana and eat the draft pick that Santana costs. It’s not easy, but let’s face it: the chances of the Orioles turning that draft pick into the equivalent of Ervin Santana are slim, mostly because pitching prospects are famously difficult to predict.

Jeff Long: With Garza off the board I think the O’s have to look long and hard at Santana and Jimenez. The problem there is that I don’t know if you can fit their salary in. Wieters will take up at least $6.5MM of that budget, and as much as half if he wins in arbitration. So you’re left with $9-13MM or so to spend. At that amount, it’s either a few smaller pieces or maybe a guy like Kendrys Morales. It’s really not as much as it seems.

Gary Armida: I’m all in on a starting pitcher. Matt Garza signing for a reasonable price would make me go hard in the market for Ubaldo Jimenez. He’s the guy you can build around. With the rest, I try to get Paul Maholm on a cheap deal and then scrap heap bullpen.

The Orioles have 3-4 players who could realistically lead the team in WAR at year’s end. Who do you think will be the “Most Valuable Oriole” in 2014?

Gary Armida: I’m going with the obvious answer in Chris Davis. I’m not sure why many are certain that he will regress. He’s been trending up to that spectacular 2013 season. He may not hit 50+ homeruns, but he is a force at the plate and will be the Orioles best hitter, just nudging out the all around excellence of Manny Machado.

Jeff Long: I think that the obvious choice is Chris Davis, but I’m going with Manny. Manny was neck and neck with CD despite having a rough second half. If his defense remains at its elite level, he’ll only need marginal improvement with the bat to be a perennial 6-7 WAR player. I think there’s a good chance it improves just enough to make Manny the number one guy on the team.

Patrick Dougherty: That’s an easy one: Manny Machado. He was already a first in bWAR in 2013, and his multifaceted game plays well all season. Davis will come back to earth a bit, and when he’s not smashing the ball, he’s not worth all that much. If Manny goes cold at the plate, he’s still a defensive stud worth multiple wins at 3B or SS, if Hardy gets injured (remember when he was a chronically injured player?) or traded. I’d even take Manny if he misses the first two weeks of the season.