The long-standing question about if Chris Davis would be back in Baltimore, has been answered as the 1st baseman has signed a 7 year $161M deal with the Orioles.
We could spend extensive time dissecting the contract. We could discuss if the O’s would have been better off with allowing Davis to leave, getting the compensatory pick, and signing Yoenis Cespedes for less. We could reiterate our argument as to why we believe Davis is worth this deal. (To summarize, we believe Davis’s production during the duration of the contract will provide surplus value.)
We are going to bypass that talk though.
The reason being that because as the ink dries on this contract, the discussion that really matters is what comes next for the O’s?
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
This is a franchise that has not won a World Title since 1983, and chasing a 4th Championship has to be the primary goal of everyone associated with the organization.
Whatever side of the fence you are on with the Davis contract, it can be universally agreed that the O’s are better off in 2016 with the slugger back in the Orange & Black.
The question is, how good are the O’s?
In the absolute simplest terms, when 2015 ended the Orioles were a .500 team. A team with good power, mediocre to below average on-base skills. Below average starting pitching, a quality bullpen, and plus defense.
A few weeks away from the start of Spring Training, what’s different?
Mark Trumbo, and Hyun-Soo Kim have arrived. Wei-Yen Chen has departed.
It’s safe to say that the offense is that much more powerful, and a middling (or worse) rotation has been further depleted.
Offensively, the existing lineup as a whole looks deeper than 2015. We’re much more excited about Trumbo being an additional piece, vs. a guy you are counting on to carry things. Kim is a bit of a wild-card, but the O’s gained very little from their OF’s in ’15. By most accounts, Kim is going to have to play LF due to a weak arm. His defense is said to be average at-best. How his bat translates remains to be seen, but there is reason for optimism there.
Even if Chen was still in Baltimore, the O’s would be needing Kevin Gausman to make a leap, and Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez to rebound.
As we’ve discussed before, the rotation is lacking. Perhaps we will see the O’s now turn their attention to getting a deal done with Mat Latos?
If you are the O’s Front Office, and you’ve pulled the trigger on this Davis deal, you have to take the next steps to improve the rest of the roster.
Is Cespedes, or Justin Upton out of the question for RF? Peter Schmuck from The Baltimore Sun detailed his take of why the Davis deal doesn’t necessarily take the O’s out of the running for Cespedes. Cespedes, unlike Upton, would not cost the O’s draft pick compensation. There is some talk about either player taking 1 year deals and reentering the market next year. Might the O’s have interest at that point? Should the O’s only have interest on 1 year deals?
As is, RF figures to be manned by either Nolan Reimold, Dariel Alvarez, or their Rule 5 selection Joey Rickard. Each of them has some potential to help. Kudos to the O’s for having playable options. Still, you couldn’t count on any of them providing anything.
If the sole goal of the organization is to be best positioned to chase that 4th Championship, you have to still be thinking of adding Cespedes or Upton. These are major talents, that remain available at a position of need.
You (the organization) knows that the starting pitching won’t be carrying the O’s to meaningful games in October. You are going to have to hit your way there.
Signing Cespedes or Upton takes the O’s from above-average offensively, to overwhelming.
While we started this article stating we weren’t going dissect Davis’ contract, what should be discussed further is the impact this deal has on Manny Machado.
Is Machado more or less likely to stay in Baltimore? Perhaps more that he sees the organization is intent on retaining their own talent? Perhaps less, with the thought that there might eventually be less dollars to go around due to this extension?
Call me naive, but I don’t see this deal for Davis having much bearing on the Orioles 3rd baseman either way. While I’m sure Machado’s happy to see the O’s hold on to their own (and the team be better off at-least in the immediate for it), he has emerged to the point that he’s likely one of the 10 best players overall in the game. That ranking may only rise as he nears the ability to hit the open market. When he is due to become a Free Agent (before the 2019 season), he’s going to do heading into his Age 27 year. He’s going to absolutely break the bank.
If the O’s want to retain Machado, they will have to back up the Brinks truck in an even more significant way than the Davis contract today.
The O’s know that of course. Knowing that, I don’t think they would have inked Davis, if they felt it would prohibit their ability to resign Machado later.
An extension for Machado is not going to come easy or quick. As such, I’d be turning my attention towards possible extensions for Jonathan Schoop, and Kevin Gausman. Each are lower overall priorities, but both should be long-term fixtures. Pursue deals with each now while both have years of team control remaining, and the cost to extend can still wind-up being team friendly to some degree.
In-terms of what’s next for the O’s in their very-immediate future, it has to be about not being satisfied. I applaud the Orioles for getting this deal with Davis done. Even if you don’t like the contract, you can applaud the fact the Orioles made a major commitment to retaining a talent.
Still, there are no bottles of champagne being sprayed in the clubhouse because Davis is back. No parades with the Orioles on a float.
The O’s are currently a good team, which would have a chance of post-season play. They certainly would not be the prohibitive favorite in the AL East, let alone the rest of MLB.
Owners and Front Offices don’t get awarded titles for winning the Winter, but more is needed from O’s Owner Peter Angelos, and Executive Vice President Dan Duquette before Spring arrives.
Davis was a major-step. The next step is illustrating that the organization is not satisfied with being good, and that the only thing collectively driving them is ending their World Title drought.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.