Orioles Prospect ETAs: Pitchers, Pre-2021 Edition

Note: this story concludes a two-part series of articles looking at Orioles prospect ETAs, with a focus on pitchers. Position players were covered last week.

As part of their rebuilding process, the Baltimore Orioles continue to stockpile minor-league talent. The club’s chances of future success partially hinge on these players, as the Orioles look to move their top prospects up the organizational ladder in hopes of fielding a competitive MLB team in the coming years.

Amid the rebuilding process, one question from fans continues to pop up: When will the Orioles start contending? The answer to that question depends on several factors, including how the Orioles acquire talent, develop players in the farm system, promote young talent to the majors and work towards continual improvement, and—at some point further down the line—bolster their roster with free agents and trade acquisitions.

Although it is just one part of that equation, one way to get a sense of the Orioles’ timetable for contention is to look at estimated times of arrival (ETAs) for individual prospects. I am doing just that in a two-part series that wraps up with this article, which focuses on some of the intriguing young arms in the farm system. Last week, I estimated the timeline for when several minor-league position players—including outfielder Heston Kjerstad, infielder Gunnar Henderson, and more—could reach the majors.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

To be included in this series, players must check off several boxes. The most obvious is to have not already debuted in the major leagues, so the likes of Ryan Mountcastle, Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, and Bruce Zimmermann are not featured, even though they are still technically prospects. Players also must have appeared on a recent Top-30 prospect list for the Orioles, whether it’s in Baltimore Sports and Life’s rankings (last updated in July, with an early 2021 revision in the works) or from outlets such as FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline, or Baseball America.

Within this series, you will find ETAs for select prospects, along with reports breaking down their strengths and biggest question marks. At this time, there are still uncertainties about whether there will be some semblance of a traditional Minor League Baseball season in 2021, but I am writing this with the idea that players will see at least a few months of competitive game action.

My BSL colleague and On the Verge co-host Bob Phelean did an excellent job projecting minor-league Opening Day rosters in a recent story, giving us a good starting point for guessing where these players will start next season. Keep in mind this story makes no attempt to project the probability of injuries that delay these pitchers’ arrival to the majors, and that it is premature to speculate whether any of them will be traded while still in the minors. Also, Rule-5 eligibility information mentioned in this story comes from player pages at FanGraphs.

When it comes to pitchers, the next two seasons should see an influx of young talent debut in the majors. This is not only because some of the hurlers acquired by former Orioles general manager Dan Duquette during his final seasons in Baltimore are now in the high levels of the farm system, but also because a handful of pitchers brought into the organization by Mike Elias could move through the minors quickly.

DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez, LHP and RHP

First-round selections out of high school and in 2017 and 2018, respectively, Hall and Rodriguez are the top two pitching prospects in the system. I looked at potential ETAs for them in an article that was published in April, weeks after spring training was shutdown because of the COVID-19 pandemic but before the 2020 Minor League Baseball season was officially cancelled.

I think that piece holds up in assessing their strengths and weaknesses, but it is worth using this space to update their development statuses and how it affects their current ETAs. Both Hall and Rodriguez received time at the alternate training site in Bowie this summer and at fall instructs in Sarasota, softening the blow of missing a full season. Hall is penciled into the Double-A rotation for 2021, while Rodriguez figures to join him there at some point, even if he logs a brief stint at High-A to start the year.

The Orioles have no need to rush either of them coming off an unusual year, so I would be surprised to see them reach the majors in 2021. However, Hall should be in line for a 40-man roster spot after this season—he is Rule 5 eligible next December—and could work his way in to the MLB rotation by mid-2022. Rodriguez (pictured above) is a year younger and has less experience than Hall, so he might not reach the majors at the same time. However, he should not be too far behind, giving the Orioles hope that both hurlers could be part of their rotation by 2023.

Current ETA for Hall: Mid-2022
Current ETA for Rodriguez: 2023

Zac Lowther, LHP

Added to the 40-man roster last month, Lowther has been a model of consistency since being drafted out of Xavier in 2017. Across 326 career innings, the southpaw has a 2.26 ERA and 380 strikeouts compared to 109 walks. While his fastball clocks in in the high 80s or low 90s most of the time, a deceptive delivery and movement on his pitches allows him to generate swings and misses. Lowther has generally relied on his changeup and curveball to compliment his fastball and will look to further polish those pitches once he gets back into competitive game action.

Lowther has yet to pitch above Double-A, so expecting him to earn a spot on the Orioles Opening Day roster would be a stretch. However, a strong start at Triple-A could allow him to reach the majors by next summer. His ability to continue keeping hitters off balance will go a long way in determining whether he ends up as a back-end starter or a reliever in the majors, but Lowther should give the Orioles value regardless.

Current ETA: Mid-2021

Michael Baumann, RHP

Baumann has shot up in organizational prospect rankings in recent years, owing in no small part to an excellent 2019 season between High-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie (2.98 ERA, 142 strikeouts in 124 innings). He features a fastball that regularly runs in the mid-90s, along with an excellent slider and an improving curveball and changeup.

With that mix of pitches, Baumann offers the most upside of any pitching prospect in the organization outside of Hall and Rodriguez. His ability to continue developing his curveball and changeup will determine whether he can be a middle or back-of-the-rotation starter in the majors. If he cannot stick in the rotation, his fastball-slider combination will give him the ingredients to be a dominant late-inning reliever.

Baumann reportedly pitched well at the alternate training site over the summer before being shut down in late August after suffering a right flexor strain. Though the Orioles reportedly do not believe the injury is serious, we do not know exactly how they will handle the 25-year-old’s workload next season, when he is expected to pitch in Triple-A for the first time. While a conservative approach could result in Baumann pitching exclusively in the minors next year, he secured a 40-man roster spot ahead of a season in which the Orioles are poised to debut several pitching prospects. With that in mind, I think he reaches the majors by August or September.

Current ETA: Late 2021

Isaac Mattson, RHP

One of four prospects acquired from the Angels in last year’s Dylan Bundy trade, Mattson is arguably the most polished reliever in the Orioles farm system. With a repertoire that includes a fastball that has touched the mid-90s, a changeup, and a slider, he has proven to be a strikeout artist during his minor-league career (242 Ks in 199 innings). During Mattson’s time at Bowie over the summer, the Orioles reportedly spent a lot of time working on his slider, a pitch that could be vital to him being successful in the majors.

If he can continue to keep hitters off balance, Mattson could be an effective middle reliever capable of handling a high workload. After logging a stint at Triple-A during the 2019 season and earning a spot on the 40-man last month, the 25-year-old will head into spring training with a legitimate chance of making the Opening Day roster.

Current ETA: 2021

Alexander Wells, LHP

Since signing out of Australia in 2015, Wells has coasted through the Orioles farm system as a starter by showing plus command with his four-pitch mix. His 2019 season at Bowie arguably ranks as his best thus far, as he improved his strikeout and walk numbers from 2018, while slashing his home run rate in half (0.66/9 IP) and posting his best groundball rate (41.6%) at any full-season level. Wells has a 1.4 BB/9 rate in 475 minor-league innings, a strong indicator of just how good his command has been.

The biggest question for Wells going forward is whether he can prevent more advanced hitters from teeing off a fastball that generally runs in the upper 80s and low 90s, and how they will fare against a mix of secondary pitches that includes a changeup, 12-to-6 curveball, and a slider. He has worked out in his native Australia during the pandemic and was placed on the 40-man roster last month. Most evaluators believe that if he reaches his ceiling, Wells could be either a back-end starter or a swingman that offers some value out of the bullpen. Look for him to start 2021 in Triple-A, where his pinpoint command could make him an appealing option for a spot-start, rotation, or bullpen role as the MLB season progresses.

Current ETA: Mid-2021

Kevin Smith, LHP

Acquired from the Mets in August as part of the return for Miguel Castro, Smith is yet another intriguing name in the mix of close-to-MLB ready southpaws that includes Lowther, Wells, and Bruce Zimmermann (who made two appearances with the Orioles late last season). Like those pitchers, Smith has generated strong strikeout numbers in the minors while throwing a fastball that generally clocks in the low-90s but has good movement. He compliments that pitch with an effective slider and a changeup.

After pitching at alternate training sites last summer, Smith should be part of the Triple-A rotation to start 2021. A strong performance there would put him on the cusp of the majors, but the Orioles (at least in theory) have enough left-handed depth in their system to hold off on promoting Smith should they prefer that he ride out 2021 in the minors. Regardless, he could be a candidate for a bullpen or rotation role by spring training 2022. Smith’s ability to develop his changeup could prove to be the difference between him being a solid back-end starter, or a reliever who relies primarily on his fastball and slider for success.

Current ETA: Late 2021 or Early 2022

Drew Rom, LHP

In terms of profile, Rom currently resembles Lowther, Smith, Wells, and Zimmermann in that he has posted high strike out totals with a fastball that generally runs in the upper 80s/low 90s. A key difference, however, is that he is years younger than all four, having just turned 21 this week. By comparison, Wells and Smith will both be 24 in the 2021 season, with Lowther set to turn 25 in April and Zimmermann 26 in February.

There is hope that Rome can fill out his 6-foot-2, 170-pound frame and add a few more miles per hour to a fastball that typically clocked in in the low-90s during the 2019 season. That year, Rom put together solid numbers at Low-A Delmarva, posting a 2.93 ERA, 2.74 FIP, and 11.5 K/9 rate in 99.1 innings pitched. Even if he fails to add velocity over the coming years, his fastball and repertoire of secondary pitches could prove effective enough for him to become a back-end starter in the majors. Rom is still years away from reaching Baltimore, but he could steadily move up the prospect rankings over the coming seasons.

Current ETA: Mid-2023

Kyle Bradish, RHP

Since being acquired in the Bundy trade, Bradish has consistently appeared on Orioles’ Top-30 prospect lists, even in the aftermath of the cancelled 2020 MiLB season. Over 101 innings in the hitter-friendly California League in 2019, he went 6-7 with a 4.28 ERA (4.08 FIP/3.87 xFIP) while posting a 10.7 K/9 IP mark and a 4.7 BB/9 IP.

The 24-year-old throws a fastball that typically runs in the low 90s but has topped out in the mid-90s, with an impressive 12-to-6 curveball, a changeup, and a slider. To stick as a starter, he will need to improve his command and hope that his changeup and slider develop enough to give him a more well-rounded repertoire against advanced hitters. Bradish should get the chance to pitch out of the Double-A rotation next year, but his stuff could make him an intriguing relief option if he does not remain a starter. If he does indeed move to the bullpen, he could advance through the high minors quickly, giving the Orioles a solid relief option at some point in 2022.

Current ETA: Mid-2022

Garrett Stallings, RHP

Part of the package acquired from the Angels this month in exchange for José Iglesias, Stallings has yet to pitch in an official game since being drafted in the fifth round out of the University of Tennessee in 2019. Despite that, he has drawn praise for his ability to control his four-pitch mix, which includes a low-90s fastball that he throws with a lot of sink. He reportedly looked good during his time at the Angels alternate training site and instructional league, leaving hope that he will make a smooth return to regular game action in 2021.

Stallings is likely to begin next season in the High-A rotation, but he could move quickly if the pinpoint control he showed in college (career 1.3 BB/9 rate) carries over the professional ranks. His ceiling is likely that of a back-end starter, but Stallings nonetheless adds to the increasing slate of arms that could help the Orioles in the not-too-distant future.

ETA: Mid-to-Late 2022

Others Worth Noting

Former first-round pick Cody Sedlock has now gone through the last two Rule 5 Drafts without being protected by the Orioles or chosen by another team, despite the promise he showed as a reliever between Frederick and Bowie in 2019. Health has been a big issue in his career, but Sedlock (who turns 26 in June) could be in the mix for a major-league bullpen role by next summer if he has a healthy and effective start to the 2021 season.

Brenan Hanifee turned in mixed results during a 2019 season at Frederick where he struggled with command issues, but he is a sinkerball pitcher who, at his best, generates a ton of groundballs and avoids hard contact. He will likely get a crack at Bowie’s rotation next year and might force his way into the conversation as a potential number-five starter or bullpen option in 2022 if he can stay healthy and keep his walks down.

I am holding off for now on guessing an ETA for Carter Baumler, as the fifth-round choice in June’s draft underwent Tommy John surgery in late October. It is safe to guess that the right-hander will not appear in game action until 2022, when he will be just 20 years old. There is also not much to go on for left-hander Luis Ortiz, who received a $400,000 bonus from the Orioles during the 2019-20 international signing period and is currently ranked by MLB Pipeline as the organization’s 30^th-best prospect. At 18-years-old, he is likely years away from the majors.