2021 Rule 5 Draft Preview: Which Orioles Prospects Will be Protected?

This offseason, the Baltimore Orioles must make important decisions on which prospects they will add to the 40-man roster and protect from the Rule 5 Draft.

In protecting players from the Rule 5 Draft, the Orioles need to consider how many 40-man roster spots they would like to fill by the November 19 deadline. There are currently eight open spots on the 40-man, but it seems unlikely that the Orioles will protect that many players, given that there are several open spots (catcher is the most glaring) that are likely to be filled by waiver claims, or through acquisitions via free agency or trade. Additionally, the team will have to protect the prospects that they believe are part of their future, while also trying to figure out which players are most likely to be chosen by another team if left unprotected.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

Over this article, I will highlight the cases of more than a dozen players. Not all of them will be protected, nor do they encompass the entire class of Rule-5 eligible players. However, they are all regarded by either BSL or other outlets as a Top-30 prospect in the system, are coming off strong 2021 seasons, or are seeing time in the Arizona Fall League. I personally view the top three on the list as locks, with the remaining players mentioned carrying more complicated cases.

The draft is currently scheduled for December 9. However, like most everything this offseason, its status could change depending on how negotiations between players and the owners unfold leading up to the December 1 expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement.

DL Hall, LHP

Though limited to just seven starts because of a left elbow injury, Hall showed in 2021 why he is regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. The hard-throwing left-hander struck out 56 batters in 31.2 innings at Double-A Bowie, while posting a 3.13 ERA, 2.33 xFIP and a 60.4% ground ball rate. As a Top-100 prospect in the game, Hall should play a major role for the Orioles in the future as long he is able to stay healthy.

Kyle Bradish, RHP

Bradish broke out in a big way this year, posting a 3.68 ERA with 131 strikeouts against 44 walks in 100 1/3 innings between Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk. Though he experienced some ups and downs at Norfolk after being promoted there on the heels of his three-start run at Bowie, Bradish rallied to end the year on a high note—striking out 30 batters and posting a 1.80 ERA in 25 innings pitched over his final five starts. Bradish could profile as a starter at the major-league level, especially if he irons out his command, and should enter spring training with a chance to earn a rotation spot in Baltimore.

Terrin Vavra, 2B

A back sprain and later a hip issue would result in Vavra appearing in just 48 games in 2021, but he impressed in that stretch by posting an .818 OPS at Bowie (where he appeared in 40 games). The centerpiece of the package of prospects the Orioles received from the Colorado Rockies for Mychal Givens in August 2020, Vavra possesses a sound plate approach and the ability to hit to all fields. Vavra is primarily a second baseman, though he offers some versatility, as he has logged time at shortstop and centerfield. If healthy next season, he could play his way into consideration for a major-league roster spot by the second half.

Kevin Smith, LHP

This blurb would have had a different tone if it had been written in mid-July. At that time, Smith had just recently pitched his way to Norfolk after an excellent couple of months at Bowie, showing why the Orioles were excited to get him from the Mets in return for Miguel Castro as part of an August 2020 trade. However, the southpaw began to struggle over the summer and never got back on track, ultimately posting a 6.23 ERA and 5.94 xFIP while walking nearly 18% of the batters he faced in 56 1/3 innings at Norfolk.

Control is not a new concern for Smith, but the spike in walks from his time at Bowie—where he issued free passes to 9.5% of the batters he faced—was alarming. That said, he was one of the best pitchers in the system for the first few months of the season, carries an interesting mix of pitches and was the centerpiece of a trade for a major leaguer just a little over a year ago, all factors that should play into his favor. If the Orioles believe they can get Smith back on track next year, they should and likely will protect him.

Robert Neustrom, OF

There were few better stories in the farm system this year than Neustrom, who hit some tape-measure shots enroute to the best season of his career. Between Bowie and Norfolk, the left-handed slugger batted .258/.344/.446 with 16 home runs and 83 RBIs, with nine of his homers coming at Norfolk. Although Neustrom did struggle a bit down the stretch at Norfolk, his final totals placed among him the better power hitters in the farm system in 2021.

Neustrom’s situation is complicated by the shear depth of outfielders that are currently on the 40-man roster, as well as by players like Kyle Stowers and Zach Watson, who are not Rule 5-eligible this offseason but could factor into the Orioles’ plans soon if they build off of their respective breakout 2021 seasons. However, Neustrom could fill a need in the majors if the Orioles move on from one of or both DJ Stewart or Anthony Santander over the offseason or early next season, as his left-handed power and adequate defense in left field could allow him to play at least a reserve role. If left unprotected, Neustrom could appeal to teams looking for left-handed power, especially if the widely expected implementation of a DH in the National League prompts some teams in that circuit to look for young, cost-controlled options.

Felix Bautista, RHP

It’s not just Bautista’s size—he’s probably underlisted at 6’5”, 190 lbs.—that allows him to stand out, but rather a fastball that he can throw into the triple digits. Starting with High-A Aberdeen, Bautista ascended through three levels by posting a 1.54 ERA and striking out 77 batters against 30 walks in 46 2/3 innings of relief work. Walks continued to be an issue for Bautista, as he posted a 5.8 BB/9 across the three levels, but his command did seem to be sharper over 18 1/3 frames to end the season at Norfolk. If he remains in the organization, Bautista will come into spring training with a legitimate shot of earning a bullpen role with the Orioles.

Ofelky Peralta, RHP

Peralta’s three seasons’ worth of struggles at High-A Frederick now feel like a distant memory, thanks to a strong 2021 season that saw him strikeout 98 batters in 93 1/3 innings between Bowie and Norfolk. The Orioles have already rewarded Peralta with a minor-league contract to return next season, but they now need to decide whether to take it a step further and give him a 40-man roster spot. While he needs to be more consistent, Peralta at his best can throw his fastball in the upper-90s and show good command of his curveball. There are several Rule 5-eligible pitchers who fit this profile, however, so Peralta’s protection is far from assured.

Cody Sedlock, RHP

Can the Orioles sneak Sedlock through the Rule 5 draft for a third time? Perhaps, but it feels less certain than it did in the last two offseasons, as Sedlock put together his second-consecutive healthy season (not counting the pandemic-cancelled 2020) and was solid between Bowie and Norfolk. Between those two levels, he posted a 4.55 ERA in 93 innings while striking out 100 batters and walking 42. Sedlock’s fastball was clocked at mid-to-upper 90s this season and he seemed to improve in most areas over his time at Norfolk, which could make him an intriguing option for teams looking for bullpen help.

Patrick Dorrian, 3B

Dorrian was one of the best power hitters in a farm system full of them in 2021, belting 22 home runs while posting an .836 OPS and a 128 wRC+ in 112 games at Bowie. While on the surface a 25-year-old posting these numbers at Double-A isn’t that notable, Dorrian came into this season with just 164 games of professional experience under his belt. He also provided solid glove work at third base and more than held his own when given opportunities at first base.

Much like Neustrom, Dorrian will need to break through a crowded 40-man roster to be protected. That proposition could be less likely in his case, as he needs to standout against the existing options of first base/third base type players on the Orioles’ 40-man roster (Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini, Rylan Bannon, Kelvin Gutierrez, and Tyler Nevin among them). Still, it would be hard to blame the Orioles for protecting him, especially if one of their current corner infielders is moved at some point this offseason. It’s also easy to see where Dorrian could appeal to an NL team looking for DH options.

Blaine Knight, RHP

Knight bounced back from a sluggish 2019 by ascending through three levels of the minor-league system, starting with an excellent run at Aberdeen that propelled him to Bowie, where he pitched well enough to earn a shot at Norfolk. At his best, Knight flashes a mid-to-upper 90s fastball with an effective changeup and a slider. However, he struggled after a promotion to Triple-A, posting an 8.49 ERA and striking out just 11 batters in 23 1/3 innings. Whether that hurts his chances of making the 40-man or being selected in the Rule 5 draft remains to be seen, but his stuff looked sharp throughout most of 2021, leaving hope that he could at least develop into a reliever at the major-league level.

Adam Hall

Hall struggled this year at Aberdeen, regressing in just about every area offensively. Not only did he hit for a lower average than he did in his 2019 season at Low-A Delmarva (.248 vs. .298), but he also saw spikes in his groundball and strikeout rates, while his walk rate and wRC+ decreased. He did steal 26 bases in 27 attempts, though, showing his elite speed. Can that tool alone make him an appealing Rule 5 pick? While a team could get creative by using him in a pinch-runner role next season and then send him to the minors in 2023 to work on his offense, they could just as easily find a speedy free agent that offers more roster flexibility than Hall would as a Rule 5 pick. Hall will turn 23 next May, so he still has time to rebound from a sluggish 2021 season, but he doesn’t look like the kind of player a team could carry in the majors next season after choosing him in the Rule 5 Draft.

Cadyn Grenier  

Grenier’s defense is without a doubt major-league ready. A glove-first shortstop could appeal to teams in the Rule 5 Draft, but any club considering Grenier would have to weigh his defense against his lack of offensive production. While he had some hot streaks at the plate last season, Grenier still batted just .226/.336/.354 with a strikeout rate of just over 30% in 445 plate appearances at Bowie. With their existing middle-infield depth, it is hard to see the Orioles being able to make room for Grenier and any team taking him in the Rule 5 Draft would be banking on his defense to provide enough value to warrant a roster spot throughout the year.

Arizona Fall League players

There are currently five Rule-5 eligible players representing the Orioles in the Arizona Fall League: Right-handed pitchers Conner Loeprich and Logan Gillaspie, left-handers Nick Vespi and Cameron Bishop, catcher Ramon Rodriguez, and infielder Greg Cullen. Vespi has been perhaps the most impressive, earning a Fall Star Game selection (the lone Orioles prospect to do so) and striking out 17 batters in 13 1/3 innings. He did struggle after earning a promotion to Norfolk this summer (6.86 ERA in 192/3 innings), but his success at Bowie before that and his performance in the fall league make his case interesting.

Cullen has played well in the AFL, but injuries limited him to just 38 regular-season games in 2021 and he has yet to play a full season above Low-A. Bishop could appeal to teams looking for left-handed relief help, though he missed nearly two months of action this summer because of an injury. Loeprich and Gillaspie seem unlikely to be protected given the number of right-handed pitchers with similar profiles that the Orioles must consider adding to the 40-man. Rodriguez, meanwhile, is a good defensive catcher, but he only played part-time at three levels last season and seems like the kind of player the Orioles would be able to keep in the organization without the use of a 40-man roster spot.