Orioles Sign Charlie Morton; Thoughts On The Orioles Off-Season

Yesterday the Baltimore Orioles signed Charlie Morton, to a 1 year, $15M deal.

Morton becomes the O’s fourth significant addition this off-season to go along with Tomoyuki Sugano, Gary Sanchez, and Tyler O’Neill.

I can’t say that when the Birds off-season began October 3rd, that I had Morton, Sugano, Sanchez, and O’Neill on my bingo card.

It’s not the path I would have suggested.

My general take was that I thought the O’s needed to:

• Obtain one front end starter.
• Let Santander walk, and pencil in Kerjstad in RF.
• Move Mountcastle (who I like), and free up 1st for Mayo.
• Obtain one high leverage reliever.

That isn’t what happened.

At some level, I’m a bit underwhelmed by the additions.

Morton (41), and Sugano (35) have flame out potential, and their ceiling is only so high.

O’Neill should be productive when he’s on the field; but that’s the rub – he misses a lot of time.
That’s particularly noteworthy as he’s replacing Santander who averaged 153 games per season the last 3 years.

That said, while there is some trepidation about about Morton, and / or Sugano imploding; I mostly feel good about where the Orioles are right now.

The path Orioles General Manager Mike Elias selected this Winter isn’t the path I would have selected. but the arrived destination is the same.

My overreaching goal for the O’s entering the off-season, would have been for the O’s to enter Spring Training as a World Series favorite.

That’s going to happen.

I think the Birds are the favorite in the American League.
Others might have a preference for the Yankees, Houston, or Boston; but any reasonable discussion of who can represent the AL in the 2025 Fall Classic includes the Orioles.

 

So, Morton… was that the right call?

To be honest, until his signing was announced, I hadn’t realized he was an available Free Agent.

The $15M salary also surprised me.

Morton’s made 382 Major League starts.
Even as he’s aged, he’s remained very durable – starting at-least 30 games each of the past four seasons.

When Burnes signed with Arizona, I wrote about my interest in Jack Flaherty.
Talked about my preference for Flaherty (29 years) old on a 3 year deal vs. someone like Max Scherzer for a year.

That preference was largely tied the disparity in the respective ages of Flaherty and Scherzer, and believing Flaherty had greater corresponding upside for ’25.
But I also acknowledged that there are questions about Flaherty’s health, and maybe there was a better argument for Scherzer for 1 year, especially if a Flaherty deal was going to ultimately take more than 3 years.

If you had interest in Scherzer, Morton profiles very similarly.
Both 40+ years old.
Both known as good clubhouse guys.
Both were going to be 1 year type deals.
Both have reasonable chances to help the ’25 team.
Both have potential to fall apart at their age.

Scherzer obviously the historically better pitcher, but Morton has had more recent consistent availability.
That availability is why Morton was a better choice than Scherzer.

And the one year deal is a viable reason to prefer Morton to someone like Flaherty.
I might have preferred Flaherty’s age and perceived upside; but the O’s obtained someone who might match Flaherty’s ’25 production without tying themselves to a larger deal.

Morton & Sugano… The Worry?

I understand the logic in the Morton signing, and I’m personally pretty excited about Sugano; but these are two moves which could go sideways.

The hope is that they give you 60 starts, and 300 competitive innings.
That they regularly take the ball, and give you a chance.

The primary worry is the possibility that one or both end up not giving you much production.

Morton is 41.  At any time he could just fall off a cliff.

Sugano is 35, and has yet to throw a Major League pitch.
He’ll also be adjusting to a different ball, cultural changes, less games in domes, and lineups with significantly more power.

Some people are also worried about Sugano’s limited K rate.
That’s not a concern for me.
I suspect you’ll see that increase as he faces lineups with more free swingers.

A secondary worry with these signings is tied to what happens in-front of them.
Morton and Sugano were signed to be viable back-end starters.
To knock Suarez, Povich, Rogers, McDermott back to a point where you are not expecting to rely on any of them.
They weren’t signed to provide upside to the front of the rotation.
It’s not out of the question they pitch like mid-rotation guys, but the expectation is that they’ll be 4th / 5th starter types.
Limited ceiling.
Maybe in an ideal world you’d have 4th or 5th starters with the upside to be more than that if things broke right.
If there were injuries to Rodriguez, Eflin, and even Kremer; the O’s will probably be in a bad spot if they need Morton and Sugano to be more than they were signed to be.

What Else Could The O’s Have Done With The Money?

O’Neill is getting $16.5M in ’25.
We’ve talked about Morton getting $15M.

Just on those two deals alone, that is $31.5M you could have used towards trying to bring Burnes back.
Obviously Morton signed with the O’s after Burnes signed with Arizona; but Morton’s deal shows the O’s had that $15M available to spend.
They would have had that much more available to spend elsewhere had O’Neill not signed.
As we said in this article, I wouldn’t have felt good about how a 5 or 6 year for Burnes would end; but you would have loved him back for the ’25 and ’26 seasons.
Maybe Burnes just wanted to go home, but the $31.5M combined these two got is in-line with the $35M AAV deal Burnes ultimately signed for with the Diamondbacks.

What Does This Tell Us About Elias & Orioles Ownership?

The Morton signing, combined with the Sugano signing; combined with everything else we’ve seen from Elias (the Draft, IFA, Free Agency as a whole) provides plenty of evidence that the Orioles see risk with pitching.

Duh.

They’re clearly of the belief that positional players carry less risk.
At the top of the Draft, that means they’re going to be more inclined (all other things being equal) to take the position player.
In Free Agency, these 1 year deals might be par for the course going forward.
There is not a lot of risk with those types of signing.

If they perform, great.
If they don’t – or they get injured – they’re replaceable.

You might not like how the O’s have allocated their off-season spending, but they’ve spent some money.
That’s noteworthy.
Until the Rubenstein’s Orioles ink a player to an extended deal; there will be consternation from some, wondering if he ever will.

Potential Benefits Of Not Having Long-Term Payroll Obligations?

It creates opportunity by itself.

When you aren’t tied to contracts, there is limited risk, by design.
You can continue to find 1 year options.

In theory, with less obligations on the books, there is that much more to offer for extensions of existing players.
Doesn’t mean those players will decide to stay of course.
They should also have the capacity to add over the top on what they have, if they choose.

Isn’t There A Lot Of Money In The Game Right Now?

There absolutely is.
Every team is receiving significant National revenue.

I don’t know what the O’s are willing to spend, or are projecting to spend in the next X amount of years.
I expect that over the next 2-3 years they’ll settle into a middle-of-the-pack spending team.

Regardless of what I think they should be spending, or what I believe their capacity should be; if they want to spend less, it makes further sense to have limited obligations.

The Acquisitions Feel Unsatisfying 

I get it.

Last year, I was excited about the prospects of entering October with Burnes, Bradish, and Rodriguez.
Not quite the same vibes with this crew.

Not getting the 1 front end guy you could comfortably rely on to provide X going into the year, feels like it gives this ’25 team higher flame out ability than I like.
There are definitely crash and burn scenarios here.

Other Reasons This Roster Could Crash And Burn?

I’m not saying any of these are what I think will happen, just throwing out scenarios:

• Injuries to unreplaceable pieces.
• Cedric remains unplayable vs. LHP, and is more 1st half 24 Cedric vs. 2nd half.
• Bautista struggles.
• Adley’s 2nd half struggles continue.
• Holliday doesn’t come on.
• Westburg and Cowser regress.
• O’Neill misses significant time.
• Grayson misses time, and doesn’t take another step when healthy. Eflin is just meh.  Kremer pitches like a 5. One of Morton and Sugano implode, the other is a 5. Suarez goes back to a guy that was out of MLB for years and years. Povich doesn’t do enough in any opportunities he gets, McDermott is a reliever at best.
• Mountcastle and O’Hearn are moved for relief help, and Mayo and Kjerstad don’t take advantage.

The Roster Has Outstanding Depth

The rotation has Suarez, Povich, Rogers, McDermott available as depth.  That’s pretty good.
There is at-least a flicker of hope that Bradish and Wells could be available later in the year.  Doubtful, but maybe?

Some of those guys could help the bullpen, which already had a lot of usable arms.

Had the O’s traded for someone like Garrett Crochet, or Dylan Cease, some of the prospect / current positional depth would have been reduced.

Right now, there are multiple options for positions across the roster.
Amongst the position players, Gunnar Henderson – as a Top 10 player in the game – is really the only player who is completely irreplaceable.

Better Off With Crochet or Cease Vs. Retaining All Of The Young Positional Talent?

It’s an interesting discussion.

Let’s assume you had one of them, and didn’t sign Morton.

If you had Crochet or Cease in the fold currently, the upside of the rotation would be higher.
I don’t think their overall ceiling as a roster would be significantly different with them, but their chances of collectively underperforming would be reduced and that’s not nothing.

It does need to be said that obtaining them would have reduced some of the depth.
That might seem like nothing today Jan. 4th when everyone is healthy and available; but could mean something more significant later.

Spending the resources now on Crochet or Cease locks them into things more.
And correspondingly, they’d know they have higher upside in their rotation now, and get those higher upside starts.

I don’t see the O’s making another move right now.
The rotation they have, is what I think they’re going into the year with.

If during the season they decide what they have is not good enough, they’ll be looking to trade at the deadline.

I don’t think the cost to obtain will be extremely different then. There probably will some premium with more teams thinking they can contend, and willing to add a player for a couple of months, etc…. but the cost to obtain a Crochet or Cease now, and whoever possibly then is not going to be extremely different.

There are reasons to have made such a move now (getting that performance for the first few months, knowing you have that arm locked in), but there are risks too. Having traded the assets to obtain them, you would have limited your existing flexibility now.

What Needs To Be Achieved Before Opening Day?

The bullpen has a lot of usable arms as is, and the surplus rotation depth provides additional options.

So, maybe it’s a stretch to say another high-leverage reliever is a necessity.

It would be something I’d be looking to accomplish though.

It’s not realistic to expect Bautista in ’25 to be exactly what he was in ’23.

I kind of like the idea of reuniting with Tanner Scott, who was neck-and-neck with Bautista as the best reliever in the game in ’23.
If you had him on-board, there’s a bit less pressure on Bautista, and you have the potential to shorten games.

Simultaneously Underwhelmed, And Yet Good With Where The O’s Are?

Yep.

The O’s are as good of a team as exists in the AL, they haven’t tied themselves to any precarious contracts, and they’ve maintained their assets.

They’ve found reasonable answers to the existing leading questions.

Elias is the best thing to happen to the Orioles in my lifetime, my opinion of course.

He isn’t a magician or infallible; he’s just an intelligent guy who operates systematically.

As long as he leads the baseball operations, I expect I’ll believe the team is in a good place.

This offseason has been underwhelming, but I’m good with where the Orioles are.