2026 NFL: Previewing Week 3

By Monday night, five NFC teams had lost a starting quarterback, and a sixth was on its third.

Sam Darnold was inactive with a hip. Kyler Murray went into the concussion protocol eleven snaps into Week 1. Caleb Williams was carted off in Chicago with a right hamstring. Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow – the same one that ended his 2025 season – on the final play of the first half in Arlington. Jaxson Dart went down on the Giants’ seventh snap Monday night with a knee injury John Harbaugh described as “in the neighborhood of” a sprained ligament. And Atlanta started Cooper Rush for a second straight week, then benched him for an undrafted rookie who threw a pick-six on his first pass.

What separated the teams was how much of the operation depended on the man who left. Seattle won by 24 with Drew Lock, who has four touchdowns, no turnovers and the fourth-best QBR in football. Minnesota became the first team in NFL history to win four straight games with four different starting quarterbacks – Brosmer, McCarthy, Murray, Wentz – and did it with a defense and special teams unit that both rank sixth in EPA. Chicago scored three points. The Giants gained 182 yards. Washington, tied in everything but the scoreboard when Daniels went down, lost by 17.

Three other patterns ran underneath it. Home favorites kept losing — Baltimore, Tampa Bay and the Chargers all did, the Chargers for a second straight week and both times as a touchdown-plus favorite. Games kept turning on possession, with underdogs playing keep-away and mostly staying close. And penalties decided drives everywhere: Green Bay lost 133 yards on 14 flags and still won, the Chargers have 13 offensive penalties in two games, and Chicago committed nine against the one defense in football that punishes a third-and-long more than any other.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Our picks going forward are straight winners. We’ll show the line and the total, but we’re only formally picking the game.

Week 2 In Review

Thursday: Bills 41, Lions 31. Buffalo opened its new stadium by scoring on its first four possessions. Josh Allen threw three touchdowns and ran for two more, and has nine total through two weeks; James Cook ran for 134. Detroit blitzed Allen on 55.3% of his dropbacks, the highest rate under Kelvin Sheppard, and per Next Gen Stats he went 12 of 17 for 137 and two scores against it. Jared Goff was excellent in defeat – 26 of 38, 327 yards, four touchdowns — behind a line playing three backups that allowed four sacks. Detroit was without both starting safeties.

Panthers 34, Falcons 3. A week after allowing 59 points and franchise records in points and rushing touchdowns, Carolina held Atlanta to 286 yards. Bryce Young threw for 287 and three scores, two to Darren Waller. Devin Lloyd had nine tackles without a miss, a sack and two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown. Cooper Rush lost a fumble on the first play and threw an interception on the second possession; Jack Strand threw a pick-six on his first pass.

Bengals 20, Texans 6. Joe Burrow threw both touchdowns to Ja’Marr Chase, the first a 32-yard toe-drag over Derek Stingley – their 19th 20-plus-air-yard touchdown connection since 2021, most of any duo. But the game was the defense. Cincinnati kept Houston out of the end zone, only the third time under Zac Taylor they have held a team without a touchdown, with four sacks and a Dexter Lawrence fourth-and-1 stop on David Montgomery at the Cincinnati 18. Houston outgained Cincinnati 374 to 267 and lost by 14. Without Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud threw 55 times for 353 yards; the Texans botched a snap on a 34-yard field-goal try, and DeMeco Ryans chose a 58-yard attempt over fourth-and-1 in the third quarter, which came up short.

Vikings 9, Bears 3. Chicago scored 59 in Week 1 and three in the rain against Brian Flores. Isaiah Rodgers recovered a goal-line fumble and blocked a field goal; Dallas Turner had two sacks including the game-ender. Flores has blitzed on 73.6% of dropbacks, the highest early-season rate since 2009, and per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell the Bears faced third-and-7 or longer eight times and converted two. Caleb Williams was 15 of 26 for 138 before the hamstring. Aaron Jones carried Minnesota with 105 yards.

Saints 24, Ravens 17. Our full review of the Ravens’ loss ran separately. Tyler Shough rallied New Orleans from 17-9 down for a second straight week, finishing with a 16-play drive and a fourth-and-goal sneak. His splits are extraordinary: 14.3 Total QBR through three quarters, 29th of 30 qualifiers, and 97.7 in the fourth and overtime, second in the league. He leads the NFL with 662 passing yards, and 350 of them have come in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Eagles 24, Titans 20. Philadelphia opened with three straight drives of 11-plus plays, then spent a 98-degree afternoon letting Tennessee back in. Amani Hooker’s end-zone interception, returned 92 yards, set up the Titans’ first touchdown; a second Hurts pick set up the go-ahead field goal with 1:56 left. Hurts then accounted for all 65 yards on the winning drive, hitting Darius Cooper with nine seconds to go. He had nine third-down conversions, a career high, and converted three third-and-12-or-longers, also a career high, while averaging 7.9 yards to go. Saquon Barkley took a stinger on the first play and finished with 9 yards on four carries; Dallas Goedert’s knee has put him on injured reserve.

Patriots 20, Steelers 3. New England lost six players in the first half and won by 17. TreVeyon Henderson scored on a 39-yard run in his season debut and out-snapped Rhamondre Stevenson 32 to 15 after Stevenson’s early fumble. Christian Barmore’s strip-sack of Aaron Rodgers was returned 19 yards for a touchdown by Elijah Ponder. Rodgers was sacked four times, fumbled twice, and is 8 of 24 under pressure this season. Christian Gonzalez shadowed DK Metcalf at times and held him to four catches for 27.

Packers 20, Jets 17 (OT). Green Bay snapped a six-game skid on Trey Smack’s 26-yarder after trailing 17-7 in the fourth, with 199 total net yards and 133 yards lost to 14 penalties. Jayden Reed (neck) and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele (knee) were carted off on consecutive plays of the opening drive; by the end the Packers had lost both of their top two left guards and were playing a rookie making his NFL debut. Jordan Love has taken 18 quarterback hits in two weeks. Lukas Van Ness had nine pressures and 1.5 sacks and stuffed the Jets on third and fourth down late in regulation. Aaron Glenn’s clock management — no timeout before the Packers’ punt, ball first in overtime — will be the story in New York all week.

Browns 23, Buccaneers 19. Deshaun Watson went 24 of 30 for 238 and two touchdowns, his first win since September 2024, with the lowest average depth of target of his career at 3.7 yards. Cleveland ran for 44 yards and won on the road. A two-hour, twelve-minute lightning delay suspended the game at the two-minute warning with Tampa at the Cleveland 28; when it resumed, a Tristan Wirfs holding penalty set the Bucs back and Baker Mayfield’s fourth-down throw sailed wide. Tampa lost at home as an 8.5-point favorite and is 2-9 in its last 11.

Broncos 20, Jaguars 13. Denver trailed 13-3 with its offense 3 of 18 on third down across six quarters. Then Jaylen Waddle went for 138 yards on eight catches and rookie Jonah Coleman scored the go-ahead touchdown after J.K. Dobbins left with a hamstring. Bo Nix was not sacked and averaged 9.3 yards an attempt. Denver held Jacksonville to 95 rushing yards and Trevor Lawrence to 189, pressured him on 45.2% of his dropbacks, and got a third-quarter goal-line stand that turned the game.

Raiders 26, Chargers 14. Two home losses as touchdown-plus favorites, and Jim Harbaugh has never started a season 0-2 anywhere. Justin Herbert threw two interceptions — both to Hezekiah Masses — and the Chargers fumbled six times. Joe Alt had two false starts, the guard spot rotated, both tight ends got hurt, and they conceded a fourth-down conversion with twelve men on the field coming out of a timeout. Cody White caught two touchdowns; Tre Tucker had five for 119 with Brock Bowers out.

Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7. In his first start since 2024, Drew Lock threw for 235 and three touchdowns, all to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had 155 yards — more than Arizona’s entire offense. Seattle is the only team yet to allow a play of 25 yards, and Arizona did not score on its final seven possessions.

Cowboys 37, Commanders 20. Dak Prescott went 26 of 32 for 279 and four touchdowns, breaking Tony Romo’s franchise record of 248. CeeDee Lamb had 153 yards and two scores. Dallas scored on seven of eight possessions. Daniels was 11 of 17 for 96 with seven carries for 69 when Chris Paul stepped on his foot on the last play of the half.

49ers 35, Dolphins 13. San Francisco scored touchdowns on its first five possessions. Miami held the ball long enough that the 49ers ran two first-half drives — the first team to do that since November 2024 — and scored on both. Brock Purdy went 20 of 22 for 287 and leads the league in QBR at 94.9. Twenty-one of Miami’s first 26 snaps came in San Francisco territory and produced three points.

Chiefs 33, Colts 30 (OT). Patrick Mahomes threw 47 times for 382 yards and three touchdowns and Kansas City gained 523. Indianapolis reached the red zone in overtime on a 48-yard Daniel Jones strike to Laquon Treadwell, ran twice for minus-3, settled for a tying field goal, and watched Mahomes drive for Harrison Butker’s winner. The Colts have lost nine straight.

Monday: Rams 28, Giants 6. Matthew Stafford threw for 327 and four touchdowns, Davante Adams caught eight for 195 and two scores, and the Rams outgained New York 481 to 182 without Puka Nacua or Myles Garrett. Aaron Donald played 32 snaps in his first game in 32 months, with a 0.75-second get-off that Next Gen Stats ranked tied for third-fastest by any defensive tackle this season. Stafford’s 426th career touchdown pass moved him past Philip Rivers into sixth all-time. Dart left on the seventh snap; Jameis Winston went 11 of 27 for 111 with an end-zone interception.

Power Rankings

BSL	Team	Rec	Pre	DVOA	ESPN	NFL.com	Prisco
1	Buffalo Bills	2-0	3	2	1	2	2
2	Seattle Seahawks	2-0	2	5	2	1	1
3	San Francisco 49ers	2-0	14	1	3	7	3
4	Kansas City Chiefs	2-0	11	4	4	4	5
5	Baltimore Ravens	1-1	5	3	7	5	11
6	Cincinnati Bengals	2-0	12	6	9	3	4
7	Los Angeles Rams	1-1	1	14	5	8	8
8	Philadelphia Eagles	2-0	4	16	6	10	7
9	Denver Broncos	1-1	6	15	8	6	9
10	Minnesota Vikings	2-0	19	9	12	15	6
11	Detroit Lions	1-1	9	21	14	13	15
12	Dallas Cowboys	1-1	15	7	16	12	17
13	New England Patriots	1-1	10	13	10	18	14
14	Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1	17	11	13	9	10
15	Houston Texans	0-2	7	25	15	11	24
16	Green Bay Packers	1-1	13	22	17	20	13
17	Chicago Bears	1-1	16	18	11	16	12
18	Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1	20	19	25	26	22
19	Las Vegas Raiders	2-0	29	10	20	22	16
20	New York Jets	1-1	28	8	27	25	27
21	New Orleans Saints	1-1	21	24	19	14	18
22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2	18	20	23	24	21
23	Carolina Panthers	1-1	23	12	21	17	20
24	Indianapolis Colts	0-2	22	26	24	19	25
25	Cleveland Browns	1-1	31	27	29	23	28
26	Arizona Cardinals	1-1	30	17	26	30	26
27	Los Angeles Chargers	0-2	8	30	22	29	23
28	New York Giants	1-1	24	23	18	21	19
29	Washington Commanders	0-2	25	28	28	28	29
30	Tennessee Titans	0-2	27	29	30	27	31
31	Atlanta Falcons	0-2	26	31	31	31	30
32	Miami Dolphins	0-2	32	32	32	32	32

Pre = our preseason ranking. DVOA = FTN total DVOA through Week 2. ESPN = Week 3 power rankings. NFL.com = Week 3 power rankings. Prisco = Pete Prisco’s Week 3 rankings at CBS Sports.

San Francisco. DVOA has the 49ers first outright at 78.0%, second on offense and fifth on defense, and they are one of only three teams inside the top ten on both sides of the ball. We have them third anyway, on the opposition. Their two wins came against a Rams team that had flown 16 hours to Melbourne and back, and a Miami team that is last in DVOA and has not held a lead for a single second this season. Barnwell made the same point — the 49ers may not have played a difficult slate yet. We spent this piece discounting Chicago’s 59 points because Carolina allowed them and Buffalo’s four sacks because Detroit played three backup linemen. The same discipline applies here. Buffalo has beaten Houston and Detroit; Seattle has won twelve straight and has not allowed a play of 25 yards. Nobody outside has San Francisco first either.

Baltimore. Week 2 DVOA has the Ravens third overall at 38.3% and third on offense — after a loss. FTN’s Aaron Schatz calls it a reverse post-game win expectancy game: on the underlying stats he would expect Baltimore to win 70% of the time, citing a better running game, a better defensive performance and a 5.6-to-4.7 edge in yards per play. DAVE has them sixth. NFL.com has them fifth. ESPN dropped them 3 to 7. Prisco dropped them 6 to 11.

The Jets are the widest disagreement on the board. Eighth in DVOA with the third-best defense, and 25th to 27th everywhere else. Schatz gives them a 78% post-game win expectancy in a game they lost, which supports our read that 5-12 was too low. We have moved them eight spots and still have them below the model by a dozen.

Pittsburgh is the hardest entry to write, and NFL.com put it best: a defensive front among the most complete in football attached to an offense that cannot function. First in defensive DVOA, 31st on offense, dead last in pass-rush win rate. We have moved them down two and could defend anything from 14th to 24th.

The five biggest movers from August. San Francisco up eleven, Las Vegas up ten, Minnesota up nine, the Jets up eight, Kansas City up seven — and the Chargers down nineteen.

Projected Win Totals and Division Finishes

Thirty-two wins are banked league-wide, leaving 240 to project across fifteen remaining games per team. The set below sums to 272. Preseason numbers are from our August preview.

AFC East

Team	Rec	Preseason	Now	Change
Bills	2-0	12-5	12-5	—
Patriots	1-1	10-7	10-7	—
Jets	1-1	5-12	7-10	+2
Dolphins	0-2	4-13	2-15	-2

The Jets move most. Eighth in DVOA, third-best defense, no Geno Smith turnover in 74 dropbacks, and two games they could have won. Miami is last in DVOA at -69.5% and is the only team that has not held a lead for a single second this season.

AFC North

Team	Rec	Preseason	Now	Change
Ravens	1-1	11-6	11-6	—
Bengals	2-0	10-7	10-7	—
Steelers	1-1	8-9	9-8	+1
Browns	1-1	5-12	6-11	+1

Holding Baltimore at 11-6 after a home loss is the call we would most expect to be challenged, and DVOA is the reason we are comfortable. Cincinnati is 2-0 and leads the division today; the two head-to-head meetings decide it. Pittsburgh gets a win back on the strength of the best defense in football.

AFC South

Team	Rec	Preseason	Now	Change
Texans	0-2	11-6	10-7	-1
Jaguars	1-1	9-8	9-8	—
Colts	0-2	7-10	6-11	-1
Titans	0-2	6-11	5-12	-1

Houston at 10-7 from 0-2 requires 10-5 the rest of the way, which is the most aggressive projection on this page. The case: DAVE has them eighth, their two losses came to Buffalo and Cincinnati, and the defense has largely held up. The case against: 32nd in red-zone touchdown rate since the start of last season, and Nico Collins is hurt.

AFC West

Team	Rec	Preseason	Now	Change
Chiefs	2-0	10-7	12-5	+2
Broncos	1-1	10-7	10-7	—
Raiders	2-0	6-11	9-8	+3
Chargers	0-2	10-7	6-11	-4

The four-win swing on the Chargers is the largest revision in the set, and it is still charitable. ESPN’s Benjamin Solak reads their next seven – at Buffalo, at Seattle, Denver, at Kansas City, at the Rams, Houston, at Baltimore — as a stretch where three wins would be a miracle. Las Vegas gains three and we are still below DVOA, which has them tenth.

NFC East

Team	Rec	Preseason	Now	Change
Eagles	2-0	10-7	11-6	+1
Cowboys	1-1	9-8	10-7	+1
Commanders	0-2	7-10	5-12	-2
Giants	1-1	6-11	5-12	-1

Both quarterback injuries land here. Dallas rises on an offense that scored on seven of eight possessions and grades fourth in DVOA – the reverse of the preseason thesis, which was built on the defense becoming average.

NFC North

Team	Rec	Preseason	Now	Change
Vikings	2-0	8-9	11-6	+3
Lions	1-1	11-6	10-7	-1
Packers	1-1	10-7	9-8	-1
Bears	1-1	8-9	8-9	—

Minnesota is the biggest riser in the set. Ninth in DVOA with the fourth-best defense, 2-0 with two division wins, and Kyler Murray back this week. Chicago holds: Williams is week-to-week rather than out, and a rain game against Flores is not a season.

NFC South

Team	Rec	Preseason	Now	Change
Saints	1-1	8-9	9-8	+1
Panthers	1-1	8-9	8-9	—
Buccaneers	0-2	9-8	7-10	-2
Falcons	0-2	6-11	4-13	-2

We took the over on New Orleans in August and Schatz had them 31st. Two fourth quarters later, they are the division favorite. No NFC team in 30 years has started 0-3 and made the playoffs, which is what Tampa Bay is playing for Sunday.

NFC West

Team	Rec	Preseason	Now	Change
Seahawks	2-0	11-6	12-5	+1
Rams	1-1	13-4	12-5	-1
49ers	2-0	10-7	11-6	+1
Cardinals	1-1	4-13	6-11	+2

The division flips. We had the Rams at 13-4 and first; Seattle is 2-0, has not allowed a play of 25 yards, and won by 24 with a backup quarterback. The Rams are 12-5 and second on the tiebreaker we cannot yet project. San Francisco leads DVOA outright at 78.0% and is still third here, which tells you what we think of the division.

Projected Seeding

AFC: 1. Bills 12-5 · 2. Chiefs 12-5 · 3. Ravens 11-6 · 4. Texans 10-7 · 5. Bengals 10-7 · 6. Broncos 10-7 · 7. Patriots 10-7. First out: Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Jacksonville, all 9-8.

NFC: 1. Seahawks 12-5 · 2. Eagles 11-6 · 3. Vikings 11-6 · 4. Saints 9-8 · 5. Rams 12-5 · 6. 49ers 11-6 · 7. Lions 10-7. First out: Dallas 10-7.

Two changes from August worth naming. We had Kansas City as the first AFC team out at 10-7; they are now the projected second seed. And we had the Chargers winning the West at 10-7; they are now 6-11 and out of the picture entirely. Those two calls were the ones we flagged in the preview as most likely to be wrong. Both were, in opposite directions.

Week 3 Preview

Thursday, Sept. 24th

Atlanta at Green Bay, 8:15 — Packers -7, total 43.5. ESPN gives Green Bay a 74.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Michael Penix Jr. is expected to make his first start since tearing an ACL last November, for a team that has not run a red-zone play this season – the first in 18 years to manage that through two games. Green Bay, on three days’ rest, lost 133 yards to 14 penalties on Sunday, gained 199 net yards, and will field one of the league’s least experienced lines without Reed and with Josh Jacobs on the commissioner exempt list. Green Bay is last in the league in pass-block win rate at 18%; Za’Darius Smith leads all edge rushers in pass-rush win rate.

Our Pick: Packers. Green Bay is 22nd in DVOA and does not look right. Atlanta is 31st with the fifth-worst two-week pass offense since 1977.

Sunday, Sept. 27th — 1:00

Carolina at Cleveland — Panthers -3, total 42.5. ESPN gives Carolina a 63.5% chance to win.

Match-Up to Watch: Bryce Young is averaging 8.0 yards per dropback, fifth in the league, after 5.6 over the past two seasons. Cleveland won in Tampa with 44 rushing yards and Watson’s career-low depth of target.

Our Pick: Panthers.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh — Bengals -3.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Cincinnati a 61.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Pittsburgh has the best defense in football by DVOA and the 31st-ranked offense. Cincinnati’s rebuilt front is tied for the league lead with eight sacks and is allowing 16.5 points a game; Houston sacked Burrow five times. Whichever line holds up decides it – and Cincinnati’s defensive front is the weakest inclusion on our published top-8, with the Week 4 republish coming.

Our Pick: Bengals. It’s a division road game against the league’s best defense so far by DVOA. This could go the other way.

Houston at Indianapolis — Texans -3, total 43.5. ESPN gives Houston a 52.5% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Two 0-2 teams, market on the road team, model near a coin flip. Houston is 32nd in red-zone touchdown rate since the start of last season; Indianapolis has the worst defense in DVOA and just allowed 523 yards. Collins’s hamstring and Alec Pierce’s heel are both in doubt.

Our Pick: Texans.

Kansas City at Miami — Chiefs -11.5, total 45.5. ESPN gives Kansas City an 85.8% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Miami is last in DVOA and has not led for a single second this season. Kansas City held the ball for all but 2:22 of the third quarter Sunday night.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

L.A. Chargers at Buffalo — Bills -7, total 50.5. ESPN gives Buffalo a 78.9% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Buffalo has the best offense in DVOA at 56.8%, and Allen is averaging a career-best 9.7 yards per attempt on his deepest average target depth since his rookie year. The Chargers arrive with 13 offensive penalties, seven fumbles and a quarterback Solak calls the most visibly rattled he has been.

Our Pick: Bills.

New England at Jacksonville — Jaguars -3, total 45.5. ESPN gives Jacksonville a 57.5% chance to win.

Key to the Game: The interior. Denver pressured Lawrence on 45.2% of his dropbacks and he completed 33.3% under pressure against 76.5% clean; New England has Barmore, first among all defensive tackles in pass-rush win rate, and Milton Williams. Jacksonville’s own front is thin – 30th in team pass-rush win rate, with its tackles producing five pressures on 106 snaps and Josh Hines-Allen shut out on 24 rushes in Denver. Against that, New England is missing A.J. Brown (high ankle), Mike Onwenu (broken right ankle) and three more defenders from Sunday, in Florida heat with no depth.

Our Pick: Jaguars. Low confidence, and Solak argues the other way convincingly. New England’s defense is sixth in DVOA, but the attrition and the setting are hard to ignore.

N.Y. Jets at Detroit — Lions -6.5, total 48.5. ESPN gives Detroit a 75.5% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Does Sheppard blitz like that again? Detroit is 28th in defensive DVOA after ten days off. The Jets are eighth overall with the third-best defense.

Our Pick: Lions. The numbers say this is closer than the line.

Seattle at Washington — Seahawks -6.5, total 39.5. ESPN gives Seattle a 67.2% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Marcus Mariota’s first start against the only defense yet to allow a 25-yard play, in the lowest total on the board. Washington is 28th in DVOA and has lost Daniels, Laremy Tunsil for most of the year, and Sam Cosmi.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Tennessee at N.Y. Giants — Giants -3, total 40.5. ESPN gives Tennessee a 54.6% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Dart’s knee. Winston went 11 of 27 for 111 in relief and the Giants gained 182 yards. Cam Ward ran for two touchdowns against Philadelphia, the fifth Titans or Oilers quarterback in fifty seasons to do that in a game, and Tennessee nearly stole one in Nashville.

Our Pick: Titans. A true tossup, taken on the injury alone. If Dart plays, it flips back. The line and the model now disagree — the number moved from Giants -6 to -3 while ESPN flipped to Tennessee.

4:05

Arizona at San Francisco — 49ers -8.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives San Francisco a 90.3% chance to win.

Key to the Game: San Francisco leads DVOA at 78.0%, second on offense and fifth on defense, with a receiver room down Demarcus Robinson, Mike Evans, De’Zhaun Stribling and Ricky Pearsall. Purdy leads the league in QBR. Arizona gained 151 yards Sunday.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay — Vikings -1.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Minnesota a 52.2% chance to win.

Key to the Game: The league’s most aggressive blitz against a line that has allowed seven sacks and a quarterback with four turnovers, ranked 29th of 32 in EPA per dropback. Two complications: Kyler Murray returns from the protocol, upgrading a 26th-ranked offense, and a dome team blitzing three of every four dropbacks in Tampa heat in the late window needs fresh legs late. No NFC team in 30 years has started 0-3 and made the playoffs, so Tampa is playing its season.

Our Pick: Vikings. CBS Sports is taking Tampa. Do wonder how the Vikings will do in the Tampa heat.

4:25

Baltimore at Dallas — Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro — Ravens -3, total 52.5. ESPN gives Baltimore a 53.9% chance to win.

Our full preview is here. Third and seventh in DVOA. Dallas has given up the third-most rushing yards in the league and grades 32nd in team run-block win rate; Baltimore is first in run blocking and averaging 155 rushing yards a game. The counterweight is that Jackson’s two lowest pass-block win rates as a starter have come in the first two weeks. Field conditions seem like a question.

Our Pick: Ravens.

Las Vegas at New Orleans — Saints -3, total 43.5. ESPN gives New Orleans a 64.3% chance to win.

Match-Up to Watch: Shough leads the league in passing yards and has taken the second-most sacks; Las Vegas is tied for the league lead with eight. New Orleans lost Kelvin Banks Jr. to a sprained ankle and is 28th in pass-block win rate. Las Vegas is last in the league at 2.8 yards a carry, so the Jeanty plan may not be available.

Our Pick: Saints. Not an overly confident pick. The Raiders are 10th in DVOA to New Orleans’ 24th.

8:20 — Sunday Night

L.A. Rams at Denver — Rams -2.5, total 45.5. ESPN gives the Rams a 65.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: The Rams looked like themselves Monday — 481 yards to 182, four Stafford touchdowns, 195 for Adams, Donald back after 32 months. DVOA has them eighth on offense and ninth on defense, one of only three teams top-ten in both, and third in DAVE; they are 14th overall only because they are dead last in special teams again. Denver is giving up 157.5 rushing yards a game, fourth-most in the league, after finishing second-best last season, and may be down to a rookie back.

Our Pick: Rams. Denver is at home, and had another day to prepare; but still taking the Rams.

Monday, Sept. 28th

Philadelphia at Chicago, 8:15 — Eagles -3.5, total 44.5. ESPN gives Philadelphia a 57.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Ben Johnson has called Williams week-to-week and says Tyson Bagent can run the offense without changing the scheme. Philadelphia is the lowest-ranked 2-0 team at 16th in DVOA, ranks fifth-lowest in yards before contact per rush, and has now lost Goedert to injured reserve. Chicago’s run game took Vic Fangio’s defense apart last season.

Our Pick: Eagles. Solak picks Chicago. We will take Hurts, who was the best player on the field in Nashville.