Week 5 gave us Alabama’s loudest road win in several years, a 28-point correction in Columbia, a missed 36-yard field goal in Blacksburg and two Big Ten brands falling out of our Top 20 Power Rankings.

Quick Hits

We went 4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread and 2-4 on totals. That makes the season 19-15 straight up, 16-16-1 against the spread and 18-10 on totals. All four of last week’s unders lost, one of them by half a point when Ohio State and Iowa landed on 45. On the model-versus-market games, both models were right about Pitt, and where ESPN was more confident than the line we sided with it on Alabama and against it on Florida. Both of those calls came in.

Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23. In August we had Alabama seventh in the SEC and wrote that if Keelon Russell hit, we would look silly by October. It is October. Russell threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a fourth, and Alabama outrushed Mississippi State 179 to 18. Kamario Taylor, limited by an ankle injury from the week before, lost a fumble and threw a pick-six to Dijon Lee Jr. in the first seven minutes, threw a second interception later, was sacked five times and came out early in the fourth quarter. Alabama has scored at least 45 in all five games, the only FBS team to do that, and has won 17 straight in the series.

Mississippi State also lost Fluff Bothwell, who carried once and watched the second half in a boot. The Bulldogs are off this week, then go to LSU.

Missouri 45, Florida 17. We picked Missouri to cover. We did not pick this. Missouri held Jadan Baugh to 13 rushing yards, which ended his streak of five straight 100-yard games. Jamal Roberts ran for more than 200 and Austin Simmons threw for more than 300. It was the first win over a top-ten team in Eli Drinkwitz’s tenure. After the Ole Miss game, Jon Sumrall told his team it had not arrived. A week later Missouri did to Florida what Florida had done to Ole Miss.

Pitt 35, Virginia Tech 33, and it cost Pitt its quarterback. John Love had made all six of his kicks this season. He missed from 36 yards on the final play. Virginia Tech outgained Pitt 499 yards to 295, and Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 434, but he turned it over three times. Mason Heintschel left in the third quarter with what was later reported as a torn ACL, and he is out for the season. Holden Geriner finished the game. Pat Narduzzi used his postgame interview to tell AP voters to wake up. Pitt is 5-0 and will probably be ranked this afternoon. It is also a different team from the one that got there.

Ohio State 31, Iowa 14. Jeremiah Smith caught 11 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns against constant double coverage and became Ohio State’s career leader in receptions and touchdown catches. He already held the yardage record. Through five games he has 44 catches for 823 yards and nine scores. Iowa’s only touchdown came in the fourth quarter. We had the Hawkeyes covering 14. They lost by 17.

Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26. The Irish were a yard from a 28-7 lead when North Carolina made a goal-line stand, drove the field before halftime and then returned the second-half kickoff 98 yards to make it 21-20. Notre Dame answered with a 17-play, 75-yard drive that took more than nine minutes, and it finished with a season-high 241 rushing yards. CJ Carr threw four touchdown passes and ran for a fifth. That is 15 straight wins. It is also 26 points allowed by a defense that had given up 33 in four games.

Penn State and Michigan are out of our twenty. Northwestern opened its new stadium by beating Penn State 34-13 and outrushing the Nittany Lions 413 yards to 48. In August we listed Penn State among the five teams we liked less than the projections. Michigan lost 20-14 at Minnesota. Bryce Underwood was 10 of 21 for 101 yards with two interceptions, and the Wolverines are 0-2 in the Big Ten for the first time since 2014.

Miami 41, Clemson 13. Miami went to Death Valley without three defensive regulars and outrushed Clemson 192 yards to 55. Darian Mensah threw for 227 yards and ran 34 yards for a touchdown, and Cooper Barkate took a screen pass to the end zone on Miami’s second snap. We had Clemson’s 13 exactly right and Miami’s number ten points short.

The rest of the ranked teams mostly survived. Texas Tech beat Colorado 29-7 but did not lead until late in the third quarter. BYU gained 216 yards and beat TCU 17-10. Kentucky rallied to beat South Carolina in overtime on a two-point conversion. USC needed a red-zone stand to hold off Washington 25-21. Tennessee benched freshman Faizon Brandon, got 220 yards and three touchdowns from Desean Bishop and beat Auburn with George MacIntyre at quarterback. Houston trailed UCF 17-0 in the third quarter and won 27-17.

Corrections

Last week we wrote that North Dakota State carried a 28.5 percent playoff chance in ESPN’s FPI and was close behind Boise State for the Group of Six bid. That number belonged to James Madison. North Dakota State, 5-0 in its first FBS season, is at 7.8 percent in the current FPI run. We regret the error.

Power Rankings

#	Team	Record	Change
1	Texas	4-0	—
2	Ohio State	4-1	—
3	Georgia	5-0	—
4	Alabama	5-0	Up 4
5	Miami	5-0	Up 1
6	Notre Dame	5-0	Down 2
7	Indiana	5-0	Down 2
8	LSU	4-1	Up 1
9	Texas Tech	5-0	Up 1
10	BYU	4-0	Up 1
11	Utah	4-0	Up 1
12	Oregon	3-1	Up 1
13	Florida	4-1	Down 6
14	Ole Miss	3-1	—
15	Missouri	4-1	New
16	Tennessee	4-1	Up 1
17	Iowa	4-1	Down 2
18	USC	5-1	Down 2
19	Mississippi State	4-1	Down 1
20	Nebraska	5-0	New

 

Alabama moves up four. A 33-point win on the road over the team we had 18th is the best result anyone posted in Week 5, and CBS notes it is the largest road margin over a ranked opponent in program history. Alabama passes Miami, Notre Dame and Indiana. None of those three has a win like it. In August we ranked Alabama 14th and gave it a 40 percent chance of making the playoff, and the reason we gave was the running game. It just ran for 179 yards and held a ranked opponent to 18. Résumé SP+ now has Alabama first by nearly five points. We keep the Tide one spot behind Georgia because FPI still rates Georgia second and Alabama sixth, and because they settle it themselves on Saturday in Tuscaloosa.

Miami moves up one. The Hurricanes won by 28 on the road with a short-handed defense, and they now have three road wins. FPI gives Miami a 93.2 percent chance to make the playoff, the highest in the country. The jump over Notre Dame is about the week: Miami allowed 13 at Clemson and Notre Dame allowed 26 at North Carolina.

Notre Dame slips two. Nothing is broken at 5-0. But ESPN ranks Notre Dame’s schedule 98th, the Irish have beaten one power-conference team with a winning record, and the defense that carried the résumé just had its first bad day. ESPN’s committee projection moved Alabama past Notre Dame for the same reasons.

Florida falls six. The Gators were outplayed in every phase, and 13 rushing yards from Baugh says the line of scrimmage was lost. We do not drop them further because the Ole Miss win is eight days old and still the second-best result on anyone’s schedule in this part of the ranking. That is also why Florida stays one spot ahead of Ole Miss. Each has one lopsided road loss, and Florida won the game between them by 24. FPI is harsher. It has Florida 15th with a 14.6 percent playoff chance, down from 48.9.

Missouri enters at 15. Yes, that is two spots behind a team it just beat by 28. Missouri’s other power-conference win is over Kansas, and it lost at Mississippi State a week ago. Florida has Ole Miss and a win at Auburn. One more result like Saturday’s and the order flips. ESPN’s committee projection treats it the same way, keeping Florida ninth and leaving Missouri out of its twelve.

Iowa drops two. A 17-point home loss to the No. 2 team in our ranking is not disqualifying, and Iowa’s remaining schedule is the friendliest in the Big Ten. But the offense did not reach the end zone until the fourth quarter, and both of Iowa’s good wins were by a combined four points.

USC drops two. The Trojans beat Washington at home by four and needed a late red-zone stand to do it. They are 5-1 with one win we would call good. Penn State is next, on the road.

Mississippi State drops one. We would normally move a team further after a 33-point home loss. Two things hold it here: the wins at Minnesota and South Carolina and over Missouri are still real, and Taylor was plainly not healthy. The off week matters more to this team than to anyone else in the twenty.

Nebraska enters at 20. The Huskers are 5-0 after beating Maryland 48-23, and Anthony Colandrea threw for 238 yards and ran for 108. FPI ranks them 13th. We take Nebraska over Pitt, which is also 5-0, because Pitt no longer has its quarterback. Indiana comes to Lincoln on Saturday.

Penn State and Michigan leave the ranking. Each is 3-2 and has lost two straight Big Ten games. Michigan is off this week and is weighing changes on offense.

Indiana slips two as Alabama and Miami pass it; the Hoosiers beat Rutgers 47-15. LSU, Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Oregon each move up one into the space Florida left, and Tennessee moves up one as Iowa and USC fall. Texas, Ohio State, Georgia and Ole Miss hold. We said we would move Oregon once we knew its quarterback for UCLA. We still do not. Dante Moore has a concussion, Dan Lanning has given no timetable, and Dylan Raiola is expected to start.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 5 AP poll has Texas first, Georgia second and Alabama up to fifth, with Florida 13th, Mississippi State 14th and Missouri 15th. It brings Pitt in at 25 and drops Iowa out. The real poll was not out at press time. Last week’s projection, which we used on the board, turned out to be off in a few places: the AP had Ohio State fifth, Alabama seventh, Florida eighth and Mississippi State 16th.

FPI’s October 4th run has Ohio State first, then Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Miami and Alabama. It has Florida 15th and Missouri 18th, the same order we do. ESPN’s committee projection goes Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Miami, Alabama, Notre Dame, Indiana, BYU, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU and Oregon. We are lower than the committee projection on Florida, and we still have LSU ahead of Ole Miss against the head-to-head.

SP+’s October 4th run keeps Georgia first and Ohio State second, with Indiana third, Alabama sixth and Texas eighth. It moved LSU up three spots to seventh and has Ole Miss 35th, which is the case for our order there. It has Missouri 15th, exactly where we do, but it puts Florida 20th, behind the Tigers. Résumé SP+ goes the other way, with Florida 18th and Missouri 23rd. Where SP+ disagrees with us most is the bottom of our twenty. It has Nebraska 12th, and it dropped Iowa 15 spots to 34th.

Texas stays first without playing. ESPN ranks the Longhorns first in strength of record and second in strength of schedule. SP+ has their schedule third-hardest and Georgia’s 93rd. The case against them is the offense, which averages 5.3 yards a play, 110th in the country. Oklahoma’s defense is next.

The Playoff Field

Team	Preseason	Now	Change
Miami	71	84	Up 13
Texas	62	83	Up 21
Notre Dame	78	82	Up 4
Georgia	69	80	Up 11
Alabama	40	78	Up 38
Ohio State	76	76	—
Indiana	72	68	Down 4
Texas Tech	64	52	Down 12
BYU	40	44	Up 4
Utah	—	44	New
Oregon	74	44	Down 30
LSU	42	42	—
Ole Miss	40	30	Down 10
Florida	—	26	New
Tennessee	22	24	Up 2
Iowa	20	18	Down 2
Nebraska	—	18	New
Missouri	—	14	New
USC	33	14	Down 19
Mississippi State	—	12	New
Group of Six	1.00	1.12	Up 0.12
The field	1.34	1.55	Up 0.21

 

Alabama gains 16 points on the week and Florida loses 22. Those are the two big moves. Miami gains four and passes Texas for the highest number on the board. That is about the path and not the team: Miami’s nearest ACC challenger just lost its quarterback, and Texas still has five games against ranked SEC opponents. Ohio State gains four and is back to the 76 we gave it in August. Iowa and Mississippi State each lose ten, USC loses six and Ole Miss loses four as its best remaining argument, the LSU win, sits next to a 24-point loss to a team that just lost by 28. Oregon gives back two with Moore’s return undated.

Nebraska and Missouri join the table. Penn State and Michigan fall into the field, which grows to 1.55 and now also holds Pitt, UCLA, Duke, Wisconsin, Kentucky and Oklahoma State. The Group of Six ticks up to 1.12. FPI gives Boise State a 35.2 percent chance and James Madison 28.0.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 70 (up 10), Duke 7 (up 4), Pitt 6 (down 4), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4 (down 3), Wake Forest 3 (new), Louisville 1 (down 7), Virginia 1 (down 3), field 2 (up 1). Clemson falls into the field. Pitt won the game that was supposed to decide second place and lost Heintschel doing it, so its number goes down. Louisville lost at NC State and is 2-3. Virginia lost by 31 at Florida State. Duke is 4-0 and goes to Miami on November 14th. FPI has Miami at 81.2 percent.

SEC. Georgia 28 (up 1), Texas 25 (up 1), Alabama 24 (up 9), LSU 8 (down 1), Florida 4 (down 8), Ole Miss 4 (down 1), Missouri 2 (new), Tennessee 2 (new), Mississippi State 1 (down 3), field 2. Texas A&M and Oklahoma fall into the field. It is a three-team race at the top, and two of the three play each other on Saturday. Alabama misses both Texas and Florida. We gave the Tide 9 percent in August.

Big Ten. Ohio State 40 (up 5), Indiana 27 (up 2), Oregon 15 (down 1), Nebraska 5 (up 2), Iowa 4 (down 4), USC 3 (down 2), Wisconsin 2 (new), field 4 (up 1). Penn State and Michigan fall into the field. Wisconsin has won four straight since the Notre Dame loss and does not play Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon. Ohio State goes to Indiana on October 17th.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30, Utah 27 (up 1), BYU 24, Oklahoma State 5, Houston 4, Cincinnati 3 (down 1), Kansas State 3, Arizona 2, field 2 (up 1). West Virginia falls into the field at 0-2 in the league after losing 45-42 at Iowa State. Cincinnati took its first loss. Tech is unbeaten and still misses both Utah and BYU, which is why it stays on top, but its offense has now been a problem two weeks running.

Pac-12. Boise State 56 (up 6), Fresno State 15, Oregon State 11 (up 2), Texas State 7 (down 4), San Diego State 5 (down 1), Washington State 4 (down 1), Utah State 1 (down 2), Colorado State 1. Boise beat Utah State, and FPI now puts the Broncos at 66.8 percent and Texas State at 2.3. Boise goes to Fresno State on Saturday in the game we circled in August.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a fifth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. SP+ moved toward us at the top. A week ago it had nine Big Ten teams in its top 25 and eight from the SEC. Now it has eight from the SEC and six from the Big Ten. The Big 12 also has six and the ACC three. We keep the Big Ten second because it has the second- and third-ranked teams in SP+ and the Big 12’s best is ninth.

The SEC has three of our top four and the game of the year so far on Saturday. It also spent the week proving how thin the next tier is. Florida beat Ole Miss by 24 and lost to Missouri by 28. Mississippi State beat Missouri and lost to Alabama by 33. Kentucky, ranked for the first time since 2023, needed overtime at 2-3 South Carolina, where Shane Beamer’s seat is as hot as any in the country. Texas and Oklahoma were both off before Dallas. Georgia beat Vanderbilt 38-14 and still has not played a ranked team.

The Big Ten has the top-rated team in FPI and less behind it than it did a week ago. Ohio State handled the trip that usually bites. Indiana and Nebraska are both 5-0 and meet in Lincoln. But Iowa lost by 17, Penn State and Michigan are a combined 0-4 in league play, and USC was a red-zone stop from losing at home. Wisconsin beat Michigan State 31-3 and Northwestern is 3-1 with a six-point loss at Indiana. UCLA, 4-0, gets Oregon in Eugene.

The Big 12 kept its three unbeatens and did not look good doing it. Texas Tech trailed Colorado into the third quarter, BYU scored 17 at TCU and Utah was off. CBS’s bowl projection now has Utah as the league’s champion and calls it a one-bid league. Houston came from 17 down to beat UCF. Iowa State and West Virginia combined for 1,095 yards, and Aiden Flora ran for 212 and three touchdowns and threw for two more. Iowa State goes to BYU on Friday.

The ACC is Miami and a race for second that got worse. Pitt is 5-0 without its quarterback. Virginia Tech outgained Pitt by 204 yards and lost. Louisville is 2-3. Wake Forest, 4-1, beat Stanford by 54 and has now lost only to Miami. Duke, the defending champion, is 4-0 and still unranked. North Carolina, which scored 26 on Notre Dame, goes to Pitt on Saturday.

The Pac-12 is Boise State’s to lose, and Saturday at Fresno State is where it could. The better Group of Six story is elsewhere. James Madison is 5-0 under Billy Napier and second to Boise in FPI’s playoff odds. North Dakota State beat Wyoming 28-0 to get to 5-0. New Mexico is 4-1 after a 61-7 win over UTEP.

The Week 6 Board

Game	Kickoff / TV	Spread	ESPN %	Total
North Carolina at No. 25 Pittsburgh	Sat 12:00 ESPN	No line	74.5% PITT	—
No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)	Sat 3:30 ABC	TEX -9.5	85.1%	41.5
No. 23 UCLA at No. 12 Oregon	Sat 3:30 CBS	ORE -12.5	84.8%	60.5
No. 10 LSU at No. 24 Kentucky	Sat 7:00 CBS	LSU -9.5	75.4%	53.5
No. 2 Georgia at No. 5 Alabama	Sat 7:30 ABC	UGA -2.5	52.6% BAMA	56.5

 

All times Eastern. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 5 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. No line was posted for North Carolina at Pitt, which usually means the market is waiting on a quarterback. Georgia at Alabama gives us a model-versus-market split for the fourth straight week: DraftKings has Georgia by 2.5 and the Match-Up Predictor leans Alabama at 52.6 percent. ESPN is also more confident than the line on Texas and less confident than the line on LSU, where SP+ is on the other side.

Predictions

Pittsburgh 23, North Carolina 20. ESPN’s 74.5 percent almost certainly does not know about Heintschel. Geriner got Pitt home in Blacksburg, but the Panthers gained 295 yards and needed three turnovers and a missed kick. North Carolina is 2-2, and Billy Edwards Jr. just threw three touchdown passes against the best defense he will see. He also threw two interceptions, and the Tar Heels ran for 77 yards. Pitt’s defense and the home field are enough, barely. Pitt wins. With no line and no total posted, there is no call against the number.

Texas 20, Oklahoma 13. In August we gave Texas a 62 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff and Oklahoma a 40 percent chance. Texas is at 83 percent now, and Oklahoma is no longer in our playoff table. The Sooners are 2-2, lost 41-13 at Georgia and have talked about benching John Mateer, who turned it over four times in Athens. But SP+ still has Oklahoma’s defense sixth, next to an offense it ranks 78th, and Texas has not moved the ball on anyone good. It ran for 61 yards in Knoxville. A total of 41.5 says the market sees the same game we do, and 9.5 points is a lot in a game that low. Texas wins, Oklahoma covers. Under.

Oregon 34, UCLA 24. We had Oregon second in the country in August, with the defensive line we ranked first. The Ducks are 12th now, and the quarterback is the question. Raiola was 19 of 25 for 289 yards in relief at USC, and Oregon has had two weeks to build a plan around him. UCLA is 4-0 under Bob Chesney and has had the same two weeks. Lanning compared the Bruins to last year’s Indiana. This is their first real test, on the road, against a far better roster. SP+ has Oregon 10th and UCLA 21st, a gap that works out to about ten points in Eugene. Oregon wins, UCLA covers. Under.

LSU 30, Kentucky 17. Kentucky was not in our August plans, and first-year coach Will Stein has it 4-1 with a win at Texas A&M. Stein ran Oregon’s offense last year. The Wildcats also lost 45-17 at home to Alabama and needed a two-point conversion in overtime to beat South Carolina. LSU’s only loss is by eight at Ole Miss. The models split here. ESPN’s 75.4 percent implies a margin closer to a touchdown than to 9.5. SP+ has LSU seventh with the third-ranked defense in the country and Kentucky 46th, which makes it about 13 points in Lexington. We side with SP+ because Kentucky’s one game against a defense this good ended 45-17. Sam Leavitt’s hamstring is the thing to check during the week. LSU wins and covers. Under.

Alabama 31, Georgia 28. We have Georgia third and Alabama fourth, and we are picking Alabama. The game is in Tuscaloosa, and three spots of power ranking is worth less than home field. Georgia has been the most complete team in the models all year, and it has done it against a schedule ESPN ranked 89th coming into the week. Its one road win is at Arkansas. Alabama has scored 45 or more five times, and Russell has not flinched on the road. SP+ has Alabama’s offense first in the country and Georgia’s defense first, and its ratings make Georgia about a 2.5-point favorite in Tuscaloosa, the same as the market. The concern for Alabama is a defense that gave up 36 to Florida State and let it convert 8 of 15 third downs. Georgia will score. We think Alabama scores last. Alabama wins outright. Over.

That is three underdogs and one favorite against the number, and three unders.