2026-27 NBA Week One: Initial Impressions

One week in, the NBA’s two defending conference champions have a combined one win.

The Knicks are 0-3 after a ring night that went to Philadelphia. The Spurs are 1-2, and their only win came against a Dallas team playing without Cooper Flagg or Kyrie Irving. Meanwhile, the six undefeated teams after the first weekend included Memphis and Portland, two teams the betting market had nowhere near the top.

The usual warning applies. NBA.com’s John Schuhmann notes that over the last 22 seasons, 76 of 100 teams that started 3-0 made the playoffs and only 27 of 105 teams that started 0-3 did. A hot or cold week means something about three times in four. Last season the Celtics started 0-3 and finished as the East’s No. 2 seed.

Eight days ago, our 2026-27 NBA Preview argued that the East got the stars and the West kept the teams, and picked Oklahoma City over New York in the Finals. Here is what the first week told us about those calls, and what it didn’t.

Records are through Monday, Oct. 26.

Oklahoma City Lost More Than a Game

The biggest development of the week didn’t happen in a loss. With 1:14 left in a win over the Clippers on Sunday, Jalen Williams was stretchered off with a dislocated left ankle and fractured fibula. Cason Wallace, who had just signed a five-year, $139 million extension, left the same game with a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Both need surgery and are expected to miss several months. On Monday, Alex Caruso sprained his ankle in a win over Phoenix.

That matters most on defense. Last season the Thunder had four perimeter players who were recent All-Defensive picks. Lu Dort was traded this summer, and Williams and Wallace are now out. Caruso is the only one left, and Oklahoma City usually holds him under 20 minutes a night in the regular season.

The Thunder are still 4-0, still first in ESPN’s BPI, and still the deepest team in the league. They went 39-10 without Williams last season. They also have the tools to deal: a likely $15 million disabled player exception, three trade exceptions and seven tradable first-round picks. ESPN floated Herb Jones, the Clippers’ Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn, and Washington’s Justin Champagnie as realistic targets.

In the preview we gave the Thunder a 26% title chance, ranked their bench the best in the league and named Wallace as the player to watch as Dort’s replacement in the starting lineup. Two of those pieces are now out for months. We still have Oklahoma City as the title favorite, but if we redid that table today, we’d shade the number closer to 20%. ESPN’s Zach Kram now projects the Thunder as the West’s No. 3 seed, which would put them on the same side of the bracket as San Antonio.

The Champions Are 0-3

New York lost to Philadelphia on ring night, lost at Boston, and then blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead at home to an Orlando team playing without Paolo Banchero. The Knicks rank 29th or 30th in offense, depending on whose numbers you use, and are shooting 32% from three.

The most worrying number is Mikal Bridges: 5-for-23 from the field and 0-for-10 from three, with no free throw attempts. Mike Brown didn’t sugarcoat it, telling reporters his team’s crap stinks. The Knicks also got pushed around physically, which is what happens without Mitchell Robinson. They picked up Dalton Knecht on a two-way deal this week.

Our preview listed backup center as the Knicks’ weakness and health as the thing to watch, and the first week found the backup center problem. We also took the under on their 51.5 win total because we expected a slow regular season, and we still have them winning the East. Last year’s team was frustrating for long stretches too.

The Spurs Have a Closing Problem Again

San Antonio opened against the Thunder and Victor Wembanyama went 1-for-13, the worst shooting night of his career. Three nights later, Amen Thompson stuffed his potential tying layup at the rim in Houston. Counting preseason, Wembanyama is 5-for-28 from three.

Mitch Johnson made the call we discussed in the preview and started Dylan Harper alongside De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. We noted then that three-guard lineups were -26.9 per 100 possessions in a small sample last season. The results are mixed. The new starting group outscored the Thunder but scored only 30 points on 45 possessions against Houston and Dallas, and moving Harper into the lineup took the punch out of the bench.

The defensive case is still overwhelming. San Antonio has allowed less than a point per possession with Wembanyama on the floor and 133 per 100 with him off. The schedule also turns soft for the next dozen games, which NBA.com expects to put the Spurs back near the top of the West by mid-November. One week of clumsy late-game offense is a reason to watch closely, not a reason to panic. Wembanyama is still our MVP pick, but self-created offense in big moments was the one gap we named, and it’s the gap that showed.

The East’s New Order, for Now

Detroit (3-0) is the best story in the conference. The Pistons beat Boston, Miami and Philadelphia, the last of those without Jalen Duren (hamstring, out at least two weeks) and Ausar Thompson (ankle). They have answered the shooting question we raised in the preview by changing their shot profile: 43% of their shots are threes, up from 35%, and Duncan Robinson is 15-for-28. BPI now gives Detroit a 23.8% chance to reach the Finals, behind only Oklahoma City and San Antonio. We had Detroit sixth with a 4% title chance and took the over on 47.5 wins. Our concern was the lack of a second creator next to Cade Cunningham; for now, the shooting is covering it.

Philadelphia (3-1) spoiled the Knicks’ ring night, then came back from 29 points down to beat Cleveland, making the Cavaliers the first team ever to blow a 20-point second-half lead on opening night. Tyrese Maxey is averaging 28.8 points and looks more comfortable playing off LeBron James. The problem is size. With Dominick Barlow, Tacko Fall and Jabari Walker hurt and Ariel Hukporti out for the year, Joel Embiid and Adem Bona are the only healthy centers. The Sixers have been outrebounded in every game, by an average of 19.5 in their last two. Our preview called fit and size the weakness and predicted a slow start. We were wrong about the start and right about the size.

Boston (2-1) looks like the regular-season team we expected. Paul George scored 38 with five steals in the opener. Payton Pritchard had 28 off the bench against Chicago. Jayson Tatum has been uneven but closed out the Knicks with three straight jumpers. One habit carried over from last season: Boston again ranks near the bottom in free throw rate, the weakness we flagged. The regular-season view we took in the preview, with the over on 51.5, looks fine so far.

The West’s Hot Starts

Houston (4-0) has had the best first week in the league. Fred VanVleet has 16 assists and zero turnovers, and the Rockets’ half-court offense has jumped from 96.8 points per 100 plays last season to 106.1. Marcus Smart has been a disruptive presence off the bench. We had Houston seventh with the over on 48.5, and turnovers were the weakness we named. With VanVleet on the floor, the turnover rate has dropped.

Minnesota (3-1) won its first three games by more than 20 points each, something only the 2004-05 Jazz had done. Anthony Edwards has already scored 45 twice, and the Wolves led the league in defense entering the week, the opposite of what most of us projected after the LaMelo Ball trade. Ball and Jaden McDaniels were each +68 in three games. Minnesota was No. 1 on our list of teams we like less than the projections, and we took the under on 46.5 because we expected the defense to slip without Randle and Reid. So far, that looks wrong on both counts.

The Lakers (3-0) have the league’s best offense. Luka Doncic scored 52 in Utah and is averaging 34.3. Austin Reaves is at 26.7 points on absurd efficiency. Walker Kessler made his first 12 shots as a Laker, had 10 dunks in his debut and is 23-for-28 overall. The caveat: the three wins came against Golden State, the Clippers and Utah, a combined 3-8, and the defense ranks 16th. Our fade rested on how the Lakers get stops when Kessler sits. Nothing this week has answered that.

Memphis (4-0) is the week’s biggest surprise. Ty Jerome scored 45, 28 and 31 in the first three games. His 104 points trail only Ja Morant for the most by a Grizzly through three games. Cameron Boozer became the fifth player ever with at least 10 rebounds and four assists in each of his first three games, joining Ben Simmons, Oscar Robertson, Elgin Baylor and Maurice Stokes. Memphis was one of our five teams we like better than the projections, with the over on 30.5, and it leads the league in offensive rebounding.

Miami Has a Problem; Toronto Has a Knee

Miami (0-4) is off to its worst start since 2007-08. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been very good individually, but through three games the Heat were outscored by 54 points in his 88 minutes. His teammates were 6-for-23 on threes off his passes, opponents were burying threes over the Giannis-Bam Adebayo pairing, and Klay Thompson has been hunted on defense in crunch time. Some of that is shooting luck that will even out. Some of it is the roster problem we flagged in the preview: not enough players who can both shoot and defend. We had the Heat 14th and took the under on 44.5. We also wrote that defenses would dare Adebayo and Davion Mitchell to shoot. They have.

Toronto (2-1) won its first two games by a combined 53 points and has the third-best defense in the league. Then Kawhi Leonard was scratched with swelling in his left knee, the Raptors lost by 23 in Minnesota, and Scottie Barnes went 0-for-12. Leonard is now expected to miss weeks. The MRI showed no structural damage, and this is his “good” knee, not the right one that has needed surgeries. But it is the exact risk we described in the preview, arriving in Week One.

The Wizards Are Above .500 (Briefly)

Washington opened by beating Milwaukee, which put the Wizards above .500 for the first time since Nov. 28, 2022. They then won the second game of a back-to-back in Chicago. Over the previous three seasons, they were 2-42 in those games. A loss in Charlotte on Monday leaves them 2-2.

Trae Young has kept his preseason promise. He has 34 assists against seven turnovers and leads the league with 35 free throw attempts, though he is shooting 37%. Anthony Davis was the best player on the floor in the opener, then scored 28 points combined in the next two games. The early lineup data backs a concern from the preview: Washington has been outscored by 14.1 points per 100 possessions when Davis plays alongside Alex Sarr or Deandre Ayton, and has outscored opponents by 17.1 per 100 when only one of the three bigs is on the floor. AJ Dybantsa missed the first couple of games.

In the preview we projected 33-49, named Young’s passing as a strength and called Davis’ health and fit the open questions. Nothing so far changes that, though beating a bad Bulls team on tired legs is more than the last three Wizards teams managed. Washington hosts Charlotte on Friday to open its NBA Cup schedule; the franchise is 1-11 all-time in Cup play.

How Our Preview Is Holding Up

Four games is not a verdict. It’s a mood. Here are the ten team calls from the preview’s like-better and like-less lists.

Team	Our preseason call	Record	Early read
Memphis	Like more than the projections	4-0	Looking good. Jerome and Boozer have been even better than we hoped.
Atlanta	Like more	2-2	On track. Jalen Johnson is averaging a triple-double, and the Hawks won one game by 47.
Toronto	Like more	2-1	On hold until Leonard’s knee is right.
Denver	Like more	1-2	Too early. Cam Johnson’s ankle has exposed the wing depth, though rookie Trevon Brazile has been a find.
Utah	Like more	1-3	Shaky. The defense ranks 28th, as we feared without Kessler.
Miami	Like less	0-4	Looking right, for the wrong mix of reasons.
Phoenix	Like less	1-2	Holding. The starting five is -48.2 per 100 possessions in a small sample.
Indiana	Like less	2-2	Too early. Haliburton had 23 points and 13 assists in the opener.
Lakers	Like less	3-0	Looking wrong, with an asterisk for the schedule.
Minnesota	Like less	3-1	Looking wrong. Three 20-point wins is hard to argue with.

Quick Hits

• Flagg’s shoulder: Cooper Flagg hurt his left shoulder against Indiana. It isn’t serious, but he’ll miss a handful of games. He was 14-for-23 with 17 free throw attempts before leaving.
• Orlando’s injuries: Banchero is out four to six weeks with a high ankle sprain, Jalen Suggs has a knee bone bruise that will cost him at least two weeks, and Anthony Black, who didn’t sign an extension, has missed time with an ankle sprain. The Magic are 1-2.
• Charlotte’s start: The Hornets are 3-1 without Kon Knueppel or Coby White. Brandon Miller signed a five-year, $209 million extension, $1 million more than Amen Thompson’s.
• Portland’s backcourt: The Lillard-Morant starting group has outscored opponents by 30 in about 18 minutes. ESPN wanted Morant on the bench. For now, Portland is 2-0.
• Golden State’s floor: The Warriors are 1-3, and Zach Kram now predicts fewer than 30 wins. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg has been the bright spot.
• Sacramento’s rookie: Darius Acuff Jr. is averaging 22.3 points with a 33.2% usage rate, the highest for a rookie in a decade, and a 41.2% true shooting percentage. Zach LaVine is averaging 29 on an expiring deal. Watch the trade market.
• Supermax watch: Tyrese Maxey (28.8 points) and Anthony Edwards (28.7) are both in the top 10 in scoring. All-NBA would make either one eligible for a four-year, $304 million extension next summer.
• The market now: FanDuel’s division favorites are the Lakers (-330), Spurs (-290), Thunder (-240), Pistons (-130), Hawks (+125) and Celtics (+135). The Knicks are third in the Atlantic at +380.

Our Award Picks, One Week In

Victor Wembanyama, our MVP pick, opened 1-for-13 against the Thunder. The early movers are Luka Doncic, our No. 4, at 34.3 points a game, and Anthony Edwards, on our longshot list, who has already scored 45 twice. On our rookie list, Cameron Boozer (No. 3) and Caleb Wilson (No. 4, with a 30-point, 14-rebound night against Washington) have been the loudest, Darius Acuff Jr. (No. 5) is tied with Wilson for the rookie scoring lead, and Yaxel Lendeborg (No. 6) is the best thing about Golden State. Among our duos, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, No. 2 on the list, are now apart for months. Edwards and LaMelo Ball, our No. 7, may already be too low.

Back to the Thesis

Our preview ended on a bet: the East got the names, the West kept the teams, and in June, the teams win.

Week One pushed back in an interesting way. The West did go 5-1 against the East in interconference games. But the teams that renewed are the ones that stumbled. San Antonio, with no subtractions, is 1-2. Oklahoma City, which kept its core and traded depth for savings, lost two starters in one night. The Knicks, who lost only a backup center, are 0-3. Meanwhile, the teams that changed the most, Philadelphia, Minnesota and the Lakers, plus a Houston team that got VanVleet back and added Smart, are a combined 13-2.

We aren’t changing the bet yet. The Knicks were inconsistent for most of last season before going 16-3 in the playoffs. The Spurs blew leads all through the Finals, yet they led for more than 72% of the minutes. October is when good teams learn what they are. But depth was supposed to be the West favorites’ edge, and one week in, it is the thing that has been tested hardest. The standings start to mean something around Thanksgiving.