Ravens At Bills Review, Jacksonville Preview

The Ravens lost 36-10 in Buffalo on Sunday and are 4-4. It was their largest margin of defeat since a 44-10 loss to Houston last year. Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 27-6, so the Steelers lead the AFC North at 6-2 and the Browns are 5-3. Cincinnati beat Tennessee 43-36 in overtime and is 5-2. The Ravens are 0-2 in the division and last.

Lamar Jackson lasted one offensive play. He left with a right thumb injury. Tyler Huntley followed in the second quarter with a right toe injury, and Joe Fagnano played the rest of the way. He was the first emergency third quarterback used by any team this season, per Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet).

At this point there is no pressure on the Ravens the rest of this season.

If Jackson can get back in time, maybe they can still fight for the 7th spot.

But zero expectations.

EDIT: @jeffzrebiec Minter said thumb injury is potentially season ending for Lamar Jackson.

What Happened

	1	2	3	4	Final
Ravens	7	0	3	0	10
Bills	10	6	7	13	36

Buffalo scored on its first possession. Josh Allen hit Khalil Shakir for 26 on third-and-6 and 18 more to the 5, a replay review took a Shakir touchdown back to the 1, and Allen scored from there. It was 7-0 with 10:10 left in the first quarter.

Jackson’s first pass, short right for Zay Flowers, fell incomplete, and he was hurt on the play. Huntley finished the drive, a three-and-out. Tyler Bass kicked a 56-yard field goal for 10-0.

The Ravens got even on the defense’s first takeaway. Broderick Washington intercepted Allen at the Buffalo 17, Derrick Henry ran 12 yards to the 5, and after an encroachment penalty Henry scored from the 2. It was 10-7 with 3:18 left in the first quarter.

Buffalo turned it over on downs at the Ravens 37 to open the second quarter, but two plays into the Ravens’ next drive, Cole Bishop strip-sacked Huntley, and Buffalo recovered at the Ravens 20. Huntley did not take another snap. The Ravens held at the goal line, with Allen losing 3 on third-and-goal from the 1, and Bass kicked a 22-yarder for 13-7.

Fagnano came in with 9:39 left in the half. Rasheen Ali returned the kickoff 59 yards, and Fagnano completed passes of 15 to Josh Cuevas and 13 to Ja’Kobi Lane to the Buffalo 7. He was sacked for 9 on the next play, threw two incompletions, and Tyler Loop’s 34-yard try hit the left upright.

Roquan Smith forced a DJ Moore fumble at the Ravens 21 at the two-minute warning, and T.J. Tampa recovered. Three plays after an offside penalty gave the Ravens a first down, Igbinosun intercepted Fagnano’s pass for Flowers and returned it to the Ravens 33. Bass kicked a 51-yarder with 9 seconds left. It was 16-7 at the half.

The Ravens opened the third quarter with their best drive. Fagnano found Rashod Bateman for 22, Ed Oliver added 15 for roughing the passer, and a low block on Buffalo put the ball at the 28. Henry ran 10 yards for a touchdown, but Ronnie Stanley was called for holding, and Loop kicked a 26-yard field goal instead. It was 16-10.

Buffalo answered in six plays. Allen threw 49 yards to Moore to the Ravens 5, and James Cook scored. Allen hit Dalton Kincaid for 40 early in the fourth quarter and Moore for an 11-yard touchdown, his 259th career touchdown pass including the playoffs, which moved him past Jim Kelly for the franchise record, per the Bills (@BuffaloBillsPR); the two-point try failed. After the Ravens went for it and missed on fourth-and-3 at their own 44, Allen found Kincaid for 23 yards and a touchdown, 36-10 with 5:58 left. The Ravens’ last drive ended on an aborted snap by Fagnano at the Buffalo 48.

The Offense

Three quarterbacks threw 26 passes for 68 net yards, the Ravens’ fewest since the 2017 London loss to Jacksonville. Jackson was 0 for 1 on his only snap. Huntley was 2 of 4 for no yards, was sacked once and lost a fumble. Fagnano was 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception, was sacked three times and lost the fumble on an aborted snap. The Ravens turned it over three times.

Flowers was targeted five times and didn’t catch a pass. Justice Hill caught 4 of 8 targets for 20 yards; Bateman’s 22-yarder was the longest completion, and Mark Andrews caught 3 for 14.

The run game was the one part that held up. Henry ran 11 times for 53 yards, 4.8 a carry, and scored, and the Ravens averaged 4.0 a carry as a team. Henry’s 10-yard touchdown run early in the third quarter was wiped out by Stanley’s holding penalty, and the Ravens kicked a field goal instead.

They converted 3 of 13 third downs and missed on their only fourth down. In the red zone they scored one touchdown in three trips: Henry’s run, Loop’s miss off the upright, and the field goal after Stanley’s hold.

Andrew Vorhees started at right guard next to Cam Jurgens, with Emery Jones Jr. inactive. The Ravens allowed four sacks, one of Huntley and three of Fagnano. Carson Vinson reported as an extra eligible lineman once, on a 1-yard Henry run in the second quarter.

The line play wasn’t good, but I’m not sure how you directly evaluate anything with the QB injuries

Ioane getting healthy would obviously help.

Jurgens didn’t look particularly good, but he’s a 2x Pro Bowler that just turned 27.  Presumably he’ll be better.

Stanley is 32 with a lot of games behind him. Where does he rank amongst LT’s at this point?
Rosengarten is in his 3rd year.  You’d like to see him finish strong, and not believe RT is an issue going forward.

The Defense

For a half, the defense kept the Ravens in it. Buffalo had 16 points but one touchdown: the Ravens took the ball away twice, stopped a fourth down at their 37, and held from the 3-yard line to force a field goal. Washington’s interception and Smith’s forced fumble, recovered by Tampa, were the Ravens’ first takeaways in a loss this season.

The second half went the way of the last two. Buffalo scored touchdowns on three of its first four possessions, on drives of 77, 65 and 43 yards. Allen’s three longest completions all came after halftime: 49 yards to Moore, 40 to Kincaid and the 23-yard touchdown to Kincaid.

Allen finished 21 of 34 for 289 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and ran seven times for 30 yards and a touchdown. Kincaid caught 4 passes for 86 yards, Moore 4 for 82 and Shakir 5 for 64. Cook ran 21 times for 80 yards and a touchdown, which extends the streak Jamison Hensley cited coming in: 22 straight games without a 100-yard running back against the Ravens.

The Ravens sacked Allen once, a sack split by Mike Green and Nnamdi Madubuike. Smith led the team with 11 tackles and Malaki Starks had 10. Tampa, back from injured reserve, made three tackles along with the fumble recovery.

Generally the Ravens defense was fine today given who they were facing and their own QB injuries.
Buffalo’s a high quality offense. The Ravens defense was always going to need help from their offense to help contain the Bills offense.
Jackson’s injury immediately eliminated any real offensive help.

The Ravens gave up 426 yards, but that’s going to happen when you’re giving Allen that many chances.
The Ravens did hold Buffalo to 4 of 14 on 3rd down – unfortunately Buffalo was 4 of 5 on 4th down.

Penalties And Special Teams

The Ravens were penalized seven times for 38 yards, Buffalo ten times for 87.

• Ravens: Stanley’s false start and his holding call on Henry’s touchdown run; Flowers’ false start at the Buffalo 5; Humphrey’s and Madubuike’s defensive holds, the second adding 4 yards to Cook’s fourth-down conversion at the 11; and K’Von Wallace’s illegal block on the final kickoff of the half.
• Buffalo: Oliver’s roughing the passer and Terrel Bernard’s low block set up the Ravens’ field goal drive; James Cook’s chop block cost Buffalo 15 yards before the half.

Loop made 1 of 2 field goals, missing from 34 off the left upright and making from 26. His opening kickoff went out of bounds, giving Buffalo the ball at its 40 for the first touchdown drive. Bass made all three of his tries, from 56, 22 and 51.  Loop is now 13 of 17 on the year.  He’s 5 of 5 from 50+, and he’s 4 of 8 from 30-49 yards.

Ryan Eckley punted five times for a 49.8 average, two inside the 20. Rasheen Ali returned five kickoffs for 147 yards, including a 59-yarder that set up Fagnano’s first drive; he muffed one in the third quarter and recovered it.

The Questions Coming In

Leadership. The week after Cincinnati was about who leads this team. Minter said the Ravens were still working through who grabs everyone on the sideline when a game turns, asking, “Who is that person? Who are those players?” per Ravens.com. Derrick Henry said he hadn’t done a good enough job leading, and Ronnie Stanley said he needs to be more vocal, per FOX45. Leadership doesn’t show up in a box score. What does show up is whether the Ravens held together when Buffalo made its run. In Buffalo, it was 16-10 early in the third quarter, and the Bills scored three touchdowns in their next four possessions. Leadership matters, but generally I think it’s one the of things people point to when things don’t go right between the lines.  Jackson had missed the previous couple of games, and was out of this game after his first snap. The O-Line has been in-flux. The D-Line has regularly got pressure this year, but hasn’t gotten to opposing QBs enough. The Secondary has been burned several times. Are these examples of a lack of leadership and/or character, or are they examples of not enough talent on the roster? For what you can glean (not much) through watching a team through TV, I thought the Ravens continued to compete today even when it was clear what direction this game was headed. That points to some level of cohesiveness and ‘leadership’ in my opinion.

The second half. The Ravens came in plus-65 in first halves and minus-70 in second halves, and without a second-half point in two weeks. Buffalo’s defense came in allowing 1.5 touchdowns per fourth quarter, the worst rate for any defense since at least 1977, per ESPN. Today put one team’s late-game problem against the other’s. The Ravens scored 3 points after halftime, their first second-half points in three games. Buffalo scored 20, 13 of them in the fourth quarter. Again, given the QB injuries, how do you evaluate anything from today?  The next time the Ravens are ‘healthy’ and have a 2nd half lead, we can review how they perform.

The defense. The Ravens had three interceptions in seven games coming in, and no takeaways in their three losses. BSL Ravens Analyst Jamie Sieck asked this week whether Minter’s defense is too passive and too reliant on zone in big spots, and whether calling the defense as a first-year Head Coach is too much. Two pregame markers from ESPN: Baltimore was first in EPA allowed on play-action, against a Bills offense that uses play-action at the fourth-highest rate (Week 8 preview), and the Ravens hadn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 21 straight games, per Jamison Hensley. In Buffalo the Ravens got two takeaways, Allen threw for 289 yards with an interception, and Cook was held to 80 yards. As I said above, I think the defense was fine today given the circumstances around them. Regarding Jamie’s question about Minter calling games as the Head Coach? I brought this up as a question in our season previews, but found after review that a HC calling plays was more prevalent league wide than I had anticipated. This is supposed to be his strength, I wouldn’t run from it, unless you (the Ravens Front Office) thought it was so tasking, that it was causing Minter to have errors in judgement with situational calls, or his defensive play calling.

Jackson. Since 2019 the Ravens are 76-35 with Jackson and 7-14 without him, and this season they scored 14 touchdowns in his 14 quarters and five in the 14 without him, per ESPN. Entering today, he was averaging 10.1 yards a pass to Huntley’s 6.9. In Buffalo he lasted one snap, an incompletion, and left with the thumb injury. I’ve seen Ravens fans online again calling him soft.  I presume he either broke his thumb or tore a ligament. I’m not sure why anyone would expect him to stay in the game with those injuries to his throwing hand.  I saw one person on X with a decent size following suggest the injury was an example of what happens to a running QB with his cumulative amount of carries. That’s a ridiculous comment as there is no correlation between this freak occurrence of hitting his hand on a DL’s helmet with him also having a history of running.

Buffalo at home. The Bills had beaten the Ravens three straight times in Buffalo, and Josh Allen came in 8-0 in his career after a bye, per Ravens.com. Make it four straight, and Allen 9-0. This was the Ravens first visit to the Bills new Stadium. The Bills are a Super Bowl caliber team, even with their defensive questions. It felt like the Ravens had an opportunity today, even with their QB injuries. Presumably Buffalo lost some focus / intensity when Jackson went out. Maybe they would have won regardless. It feels like the Ravens would have had a reasonable chance to win today had Jackson stayed available.

Week 9: Jacksonville At Baltimore

The Ravens host Jacksonville on Thursday, Nov. 5, at 8:15 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium, on Prime Video, four days after Buffalo. As of Sunday morning, before the injuries, the Ravens were 3-point favorites at DraftKings, and ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor gave them a 47.8% chance to win. Both numbers will likely move.

The Jaguars came into today 4-2, leading the AFC South by 2.5 games over Indianapolis and Houston, both 2-5, after their Week 7 bye. Tennessee is 1-6. They beat Indianapolis 42-7 on Sunday and are 5-2. Lawrence completed 10 of 14 passes for 210 yards and three touchdowns, one to the recently benched Brian Thomas Jr., and Rayuan Lane returned an interception 92 yards for a touchdown, per AP. Liam Coen is in his second season; Jacksonville went 13-4 last year and won its final eight regular-season games, per NBC News. Grant Udinski is the offensive coordinator and Anthony Campanile the defensive coordinator, per Jaguars.com.

In our Week 8 rankings the Jaguars were seventh overall and third in DVOA, with an 11-6 projection that wins the AFC South. The Ravens were 14th and 15th in DVOA, projected 9-8 and the first team out of the AFC field, tied with Cleveland.

How Jacksonville got to 5-2

Week	Opponent	Result
1	Cleveland	W 34-10
2	at Denver	L 20-13
3	New England	W 35-6
4	at Cincinnati	W 22-17
5	Philadelphia (London)	W 19-17
6	Houston (London)	L 34-31
7	Bye
8	Indianapolis	W 42-7

Through six games, before today’s game against Indianapolis, Jacksonville had scored 154 points, eighth in the league, and allowed 104, third fewest, per Pro Football Reference. Both losses were one-score games. In the Houston loss, Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdown passes, and Travis Hunter caught a touchdown and intercepted C.J. Stroud; a too-many-men penalty was Jacksonville’s third straight week of costly flags, per our Week 6 review.

When Jacksonville has the ball

Entering today, Lawrence had completed 120 of 184 passes for 1,480 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, and had been sacked 10 times, per Pro Football Reference. Fourteen touchdown passes in six games is a career first for him, per Jaguars.com.

Entering today, Parker Washington led Jacksonville with 26 catches for 416 yards and four touchdowns. Brenton Strange had 26 catches for 279 yards, and Jakobi Meyers 20 for 285. Bhayshul Tuten had run 94 times for 388 yards, 4.1 a carry, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. 39 times for 168. Travis Hunter had six catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on offense, and two interceptions on defense.

Entering today, Lawrence had completed 78% of his passes against zone coverage, with a 6.5% off-target rate, both best among 33 qualified quarterbacks, per ESPN Research.

Left tackle Anton Harrison is out for the season with a torn ACL, per Jaguars.com. Jacksonville’s offensive line is 11th on our numbers and amongst the first teams out of our top 8 because of his injury: 47% pass block win rate (22nd), 74% run block (ninth), a 5.2% sack rate, 2.0 points better than its opponents usually allow, and 4.1 yards a carry, 0.2 under what those defenses allow.

Baltimore’s defensive line is seventh: 54% pass rush win rate (seventh), 31% run stop (eighth), a 6.6% sack rate, 0.5 better than its opponents’ lines usually allow, and 3.8 yards a carry allowed. The defense as a whole is 17th in FTN’s defensive DVOA.

When Baltimore has the ball

Jacksonville’s front is 16th on our numbers, and its two halves don’t match. It is fifth in pass rush win rate at 57% but 30th in run stop at 26%, and it still allows only 3.2 yards a carry, 0.6 under what its opponents usually gain.

That front came out of Sunday banged up. Nose tackle DaVon Hamilton was carted off with a right knee injury in the second quarter and ruled out, and defensive end Travon Walker (ribs) and safety Eric Murray (elbow) were also hurt, per AP. On offense, right guard Ezra Cleveland hurt his ankle.

The results favor the run defense over its win rate: Jacksonville came into today first in EPA allowed per designed rush, per ESPN. The pass defense is softer. Entering today, it allowed 8.0 yards per pass attempt, also per ESPN, and had 11 sacks and seven interceptions in six games. Travon Walker had two sacks and Josh Hines-Allen 1.5; Foyesade Oluokun, Jourdan Lewis and Hunter had two interceptions each.

Entering today, Cam Little had made 10 of 12 field goals, 4 of 6 from 50 yards or more, with a long of 60.

Baltimore’s offensive line entering this weekend was 18th in our O-Line Rankings: 48% pass block (20th), 72% run block (21st), an 8.2% sack rate, 1.4 points worse than its opponents usually allow, and 4.7 yards a carry. Vega Ioane (knee) was ruled out for Buffalo. In Buffalo, Vorhees started at right guard next to Cam Jurgens.

The short week

We’ve seen repeatedly that NFL games on Thursday Night’s look like a different product.  Players are still recovering from their games just a few days prior, and we see teams look less prepared.

The Ravens get the benefit of being at home, but this already had the makings of an ugly game prior to the likelyhood of Fagnano making his first NFL start.

What comes after

After Jacksonville, the Chargers come to Baltimore on Monday, Nov. 16, at 8:15 p.m. on ESPN. Here is the rest of the schedule, with each opponent’s place in our Oct. 27th power rankings:

Date	Opponent	Opponent’s BSL rank
Thu., Nov. 5th	Jacksonville	7
Mon., Nov. 16th	L.A. Chargers	32
Nov. 22nd	at Carolina	21
Nov. 29th	at Houston	22
Week 13	Bye
Dec. 13th	Tampa Bay	18
Dec. 20th	at Pittsburgh	12
Dec. 27th	Cleveland	15
Dec. 31st	at Cincinnati	6
Week 18, TBD	Pittsburgh	12

Four of the last five games are against the AFC North, where the Ravens are 0-2.

The Path To A 7 Seed

These numbers include Sunday’s early results; the late games (Chiefs at Broncos, Patriots at Dolphins, Chargers at Rams) use their pregame odds.

We’ll wait for the Ravens’ formal announcement on Jackson’s thumb. For our purposes, we’re assuming he misses four to six weeks. Because the bye falls in Week 13, that’s either three games, with Jackson back Nov. 29th at Houston, or four, with him back Dec. 13th against Tampa Bay.

Here’s how we built it. Each remaining Ravens game rates both teams by their place in our Oct. 27th power rankings, adds home field, and takes 6 points off the Ravens while Jackson is out, which is how far the line moved when he was ruled out against Cincinnati. Every other AFC team plays out its season at the pace of our Oct. 27th win projections. We ran the rest of the season 200,000 times and counted how often the Ravens got in.

Jackson back	Games missed	Make the playoffs	As the 7th seed
Nov. 29th at Houston (four weeks)	3	About 27%	About 11%
Dec. 13th vs. Tampa Bay (six weeks)	4	About 23%	About 10%

Those numbers break ties at random. The Ravens are 0-2 in the division and already behind New England on conference record, so most ties would likely go against them. If they lose every tie, the chances drop to about 18% and 15%.

The 7th seed finished with 9 or 10 wins in almost nine of every 10 simulations. From 4-4, that means going 5-4 or 6-3 the rest of the way. The model’s most common Ravens finish is 8-9.

Thursday is the hardest game without Jackson. Jacksonville is seventh in our Power Rankings, and the model gives the Ravens about a 29% chance; ESPN had them at 47.8% before the injuries and results today. The Chargers, last in our rankings, and Tampa Bay at home are the likeliest wins.

The model doesn’t know who plays quarterback. Huntley and Fagnano were both hurt today, and the 6-point adjustment assumes a healthy backup.

The trade deadline

The deadline is Tuesday, Nov. 10th, at 4 p.m. ET, per CBS Sports. That leaves the Ravens one more game, Thursday, and probably a diagnosis on Jackson’s thumb, before they decide.

Eric DeCosta has been a deadline buyer: Marcus Peters in 2019, Yannick Ngakoue in 2020 and Roquan Smith in 2022, per The Banner. This October he sent a 2028 second-round pick and a 2027 fifth to Philadelphia for Jurgens, per Yahoo Sports. The last Ravens team to sell was Ozzie Newsome’s 2015 team, which made two depth trades.

The case for selling is next year’s cap more than this year’s. The Ravens are tight this season after restructuring Jackson’s contract in the spring, which cleared about $40 million, per The Banner. Over The Cap counts about $1.9 million in room this season. If DeCosta did sell, four veterans are the realistic names:

Player	2026 cap hit	2027 cap hit	2027 cap saved if traded
Roquan Smith	$32.7M	$32.7M	$20.0M
Marlon Humphrey	$26.3M	$11.9M	None
Mark Andrews	$7.0M	$14.7M	$3.5M
Rashod Bateman	$6.2M	$10.9M	$3.0M

Figures from the Over The Cap calculator. A trade now leaves this season’s bonus charge on the Ravens’ books and moves the rest of a player’s bonus money onto the 2027 cap as dead money; the last column is what’s left over.

The league cap does rise. Projections for 2027 run from about $323 million to $352 million, up from $301.2 million this year, per Over The Cap and Spotrac. Even so, Jackson’ could be roughly a quarter of it. With 45 players under contract for 2027, Over The Cap has the Ravens at about $372.9 million against a $327 million cap, roughly $46 million over before filling out a roster. Spotrac’s estimate is about $52.8 million over.

The cap has climbed fast: $208.2 million in 2022, $224.8 million in 2023, $255.4 million in 2024, $279.2 million in 2025 and $301.2 million this year.

If the projections hold, the expected Lamar Jackson extension won’t be much of an issue. If the cap doesn’t grow that much, that would make thoughts on the likely extension more complicated.
He turns 30 in January, and obviously there have been times he has missed considerable time as we discussed last week.

Ravens On SI has argued for moving all four players above. A trade after Thursday saves only what’s left of this season’s salary; the real relief would come in 2027. Of the four, only Smith frees meaningful space next year; trading Humphrey frees none, because his contract voids after this season and its $11.9 million 2027 charge is dead money either way.