2026 NFL: Week 9 Review, Week 10 Preview

Week 9 in Brief

Jacksonville opened Week 9 by beating Baltimore 33-10 on Thursday, the Ravens’ fourth straight loss, and Buffalo closed it Monday by holding Minnesota to 178 yards in a 23-6 win. In between, Green Bay put 45 points on New England, the Giants won in Philadelphia for the first time in more than a decade, Houston sacked Justin Herbert eight times, and the Chargers fell to 0-8. The Eagles have lost seven straight, and Jalen Hurts is out for the season.

Tuesday’s trade deadline sent Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, Keenan Allen to San Francisco and Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston. Jacksonville added Jessie Bates III, Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux, and Baltimore has Jacoby Brissett for Monday night.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 9 Recap

Lines are the ones we published last week.

Jaguars 33, Ravens 10 (Thursday)

Box score · Our review · Line: Jaguars -8.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

What decided it: The quarterback situation, as expected. Fagnano threw for 60 yards on 11-of-19 passing with two second-half interceptions, so Baltimore’s 172 rushing yards on 34 carries went nowhere. Trevor Lawrence threw for 242 yards and a touchdown without being sacked, and Cam Little made all four field goal tries. Baltimore has now lost four straight and fell to 4-5. Kyle Hamilton left with a hip injury.

Bengals 34, Falcons 17 (Madrid)

Box score · Line: Bengals -3, 52.5 · Our pick: Bengals

Expected: Whether Michael Penix Jr.’s four interceptions in the rain were a one-off (Atlanta has been first in points per game since Week 3, per ESPN), and Cincinnati’s defense, 15th in DVOA, with DJ Turner II’s ankle.

What decided it: Cincinnati’s offense, which scored on every first-half possession. Joe Burrow completed 24 of 29 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a fourth. Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 155 yards, 142 of them in the first half, and Tee Higgins caught two touchdowns. Penix’s turnover problem mostly didn’t carry over: he threw one interception, late, and ran for a career-high 50 yards. But he averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt (Marc Raimondi, ESPN). Bijan Robinson ran for 100 yards, 42 of them on the opening drive. Cincinnati never sacked Penix, but its defense held after Atlanta’s 10 first-quarter points. The Bengals have won four straight, scoring 30 or more in each.

Saints 23, Browns 22 (OT)

Box score · Line: Saints -2.5, 43.5 · Our pick: Browns

Expected: We picked against the line and the model, with low confidence. The case was Cleveland’s defensive line, fourth on our list, against a Saints line 18th, set against a Browns offensive line that ranks last and New Orleans coming off its bye.

What decided it: Cleveland’s offensive line, not its defensive front. The Saints sacked Shedeur Sanders five times, two of them by Carl Granderson. Two sacks came on red-zone trips that ended in field goals (Ringer Staff). In his first start of the season, Sanders still threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns, including a 64-yard score to KC Concepcion Jr. that put Cleveland ahead with 5:33 left. Audric Estime’s 2-yard run with 58 seconds left put New Orleans back in front, and Andre Szmyt’s 51-yard field goal forced overtime. Tyler Shough hit Juwan Johnson for a 15-yard touchdown on the first overtime possession. Harold Fannin Jr. answered with a 39-yard catch-and-run with a minute left. Todd Monken went for two, and Sanders, flushed right by Granderson, threw incomplete. Maliek Collins was inactive.

Cowboys 27, Colts 23

Box score · Line: Cowboys -6, 51.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: The Colts after the Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner trades and Daniel Jones’ benching; a Dallas defense last in EPA per play (Bill Barnwell); and the Colts’ quarterback and Jonathan Taylor’s status. George Pickens and Joey Porter Jr. were inactive for Dallas.

What decided it: Dallas’ passing game, and just enough of it to survive 14 penalties for 153 yards. Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns, CeeDee Lamb caught 10 passes for 195 yards, and Javonte Williams ran for 101. Dallas outgained Indianapolis 508 yards to 271, the first time all season the Cowboys held an opponent under 300 (CBS). But two lost fumbles and the flags kept the Colts close. Spencer Shrader’s field goals from 59 and 50 yards put Indianapolis up 23-20 with 1:37 left. Prescott hit Ryan Flournoy for 46 yards, and Shane Steichen let Williams score from the 1 to get the ball back. Caleb Downs then intercepted Daniel Jones with 35 seconds left. Jones started and threw for 180 yards. Jonathan Taylor ran 13 times for 46 yards and lost a fumble.

Broncos 26, Panthers 21

Box score · Line: Broncos -3, 43.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: Denver’s defensive line, third on our list, against a Carolina offensive line 26th and without Taylor Moton and Damien Lewis.

What decided it: Denver’s front, at the end. Bryce Young threw for 276 yards and three touchdowns against a secondary missing both starting safeties. Then, with 1:24 left, Nik Bonitto beat left tackle Rasheed Walker to the outside and strip-sacked him; Bonitto recovered the fumble. Denver sacked Young three times in all. The other turn came at the Denver 1 late in the third quarter. Sean Payton’s challenge was ruled to have come before the next snap, and review turned an incompletion into Devon Key’s interception. Carolina, without its top four cornerbacks, had two practice-squad call-ups flagged for five pass interference penalties (AP). Bo Nix threw two touchdowns. Denver has won five straight and 16 straight one-score games, and it goes into its bye at 7-2.

Lions 19, Dolphins 9

Box score · Line: Lions -7, 50.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: Detroit’s defensive injuries (Jack Campbell, Brian Branch, DJ Wonnum, D.J. Reed) and Miami’s run game without Kadyn Proctor.

What decided it: Detroit’s defense, without Jack Campbell, D.J. Reed or DJ Wonnum. Malik Willis completed 13 of 25 passes for 128 yards with an interception and was sacked three times, twice by Derrick Moore (CBS); he was playing through a groin injury. Miami went 0 for 3 in the red zone, and its only play over 20 yards was a fake punt (Bill Barnwell, ESPN). Proctor played, and Miami still ran for fewer than 80 yards for the second straight game (Marcel Louis-Jacques, ESPN). Detroit’s offense was ordinary. Jared Goff was sacked three times in the first half and threw for 170 yards. Jake Bates kicked four field goals around Jahmyr Gibbs’ fourth-down touchdown run.

Rams 20, Commanders 13

Box score · Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: The Rams’ offensive line, third on our list, against a Washington front without Daron Payne, and Matthew Stafford under 225 yards in three straight games.

What decided it: Myles Garrett and Puka Nacua. In his first game since Week 1, Garrett had three of the Rams’ four sacks: a strip-sack that set up a field goal before halftime and two in the fourth quarter. Nacua caught 14 of the 19 passes thrown his way for 150 yards, including the tiebreaking 7-yard touchdown early in the fourth. The Rams’ other receivers caught four passes for 36 yards (Sarah Barshop, ESPN). Washington scored once in the final 44 minutes. Matthew Stafford threw for 219 yards with an interception, his fourth straight game under 225, and the Rams went 3 for 14 on third down. Nacua hurt his knee and is likely headed to injured reserve with MCL and PCL sprains and turf toe (CBS).

Giants 19, Eagles 11

Box score · Line: Giants -3.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: We picked the Giants with low confidence. J.J. McCarthy was making his second start, after a bye and on the road, against an Eagles team that had allowed 100-plus rushing yards in every game (Fox) and lost six straight.

What decided it: The Giants’ pass rush. New York sacked Joe Milton, who started in place of the benched Tanner McKee, seven times. Rookie Arvell Reese had three of the sacks, along with a forced fumble and 12 tackles (Jordan Raanan, ESPN). Milton completed 18 of 34 passes for 169 yards. McCarthy left with a hip injury in the third quarter with the Giants down 8-6. Jameis Winston threw the go-ahead 5-yard touchdown to Isaiah Likely, and McCarthy came back for the last play of the quarter. Dominic Zvada kicked four field goals. It was the Giants’ first win in Philadelphia in more than a decade and the Eagles’ seventh straight loss.

Chiefs 35, Jets 12

Box score · Line: Chiefs -9.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Chiefs

Expected: Kansas City’s run game (Kenneth Walker III at 3.0 yards a carry over two losses, per CBS) against a Jets run defense 31st since Week 3 (ESPN), and Braelon Allen.

What decided it: The run game came back. Kenneth Walker III ran for 102 yards and a touchdown and caught two touchdown passes, and Kansas City ran for 163 yards on 32 carries. The Chiefs came in with nine sacks all season and sacked Geno Smith five times: two each for Chris Jones and George Karlaftis and one for Ashton Gillotte. The Jets got four Jason Sanders field goals and nothing else, finishing with 229 yards and getting shut out in the second half. Patrick Mahomes threw for 242 yards after David Bailey’s strip-sack bent his right elbow before halftime; he’ll have more testing. Harrison Butker missed from 56 yards and then, after a penalty, from 51.

Texans 44, Chargers 22

Box score · Line: Texans -4.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Texans

Expected: The Chargers had gone 27 straight drives without a touchdown behind our 30th-ranked offensive line, and they faced Houston’s fifth-ranked defensive line, coming off a bye.

What decided it: Exactly that. Houston sacked Justin Herbert a career-high eight times, with two each from Will Anderson Jr. and Jadeveon Clowney (CBS). The Chargers’ drought reached 37 drives before Quentin Johnston’s 58-yard catch in the fourth quarter. C.J. Stroud had been sick all week and threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns, two of them 63-yarders to Tank Dell and Kayshon Boutte. Herbert left late with a finger injury. The Chargers are 0-8.

Seahawks 17, Cardinals 3

Box score · Line: Seahawks -11.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Seahawks

Expected: Arizona’s health (Gardner Minshew expected to start, per Pete Prisco; Jeremiyah Love’s ankle; Bam Knight’s concussion) and Seattle’s run game behind Quenton Nelson, who led the way for 81 yards Monday.

What decided it: Seattle’s defense. Arizona reached the red zone twice and got three points, failing on fourth-and-goal from the 2. Minshew completed 21 of 30 passes for 166 yards and was sacked three times. Love was on injured reserve and Knight was inactive. Sam Darnold was out with a quad injury and a cracked rib, and Drew Lock played through elbow and oblique injuries to complete 19 of 28 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown. Nelson was inactive, along with left tackle Charles Cross, and Seattle still ran for more than 100 yards, led by Zach Charbonnet (CBS). AJ Barner scored on a run and a catch.

Packers 45, Patriots 27

Box score · Line: Patriots -3, 46.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: Both New England lines, in our top 8, against a Green Bay offensive line 31st and the league’s worst run game; Micah Parsons practicing (Pete Prisco); and A.J. Brown’s knee.

What decided it: Green Bay’s passing game and four New England turnovers. Jordan Love threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another. Christian Watson (171 yards) and Matthew Golden (164) both topped 150, much of it against Christian Gonzalez. The league’s worst run game ran for 129 yards, 68 of them by Kaleb Johnson. Drake Maye threw three first-half interceptions, two of which set up touchdowns, and Green Bay scored 21 points off the four turnovers. Both New England lines were in our top 8, and neither showed it; Karl Brooks had two sacks beating the Patriots’ guards (Bill Barnwell, ESPN). A.J. Brown was inactive. Carlton Davis III, Ben Brown, Will Campbell, Brenden Schooler and Rhamondre Stevenson all left hurt.

49ers 38, Raiders 17

Box score · Line: 49ers -10, 51.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: DeForest Buckner’s first game back, against a Raiders defense that had allowed 30-plus points five straight weeks (ESPN) and ranks 31st on our defensive line list.

What decided it: Five San Francisco takeaways in the second half. The first was Jaden Dugger’s interception return for a touchdown on the first play of the third quarter. Kirk Cousins threw three second-half interceptions, and the Raiders lost two fumbles, one by Michael Mayer at the goal line. Las Vegas allowed 30 or more for a sixth straight game, tying an NFL record (AP), and gave up 190 rushing yards (Ryan McFadden, ESPN). Brock Purdy threw two touchdowns and ran for one, and Christian McCaffrey scored twice. Nick Bosa returned. Rookie defensive tackle Gracen Halton broke his ankle and is out for the season.

Bears 27, Buccaneers 24

Box score · Line: Bears -4.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: Tampa Bay’s run game (582 yards in two weeks) against a Chicago front 26th in run stop win rate and without Grady Jarrett.

What decided it: Turnovers, both ways. Chicago led 14-0 after a quarter, then gave the ball away five times. Caleb Williams threw four interceptions, two of them throwaways under interior pressure (Ringer Staff), and Luther Burden III’s fumble set up Tampa Bay’s tying touchdown and two-point conversion with 2:51 left. The Bucs got only a field goal and that touchdown out of the five takeaways. Jaylon Johnson’s 67-yard interception return was the difference. Williams then hit Colston Loveland for 38 yards to set up Cairo Santos’ 38-yard field goal as time expired. Tampa Bay’s run game had 582 yards over its previous two games but managed 126 against a Chicago front that added Jeffery Simmons (one sack). Bucky Irving had 97 yards and two touchdowns.

Bills 23, Vikings 6 (Monday)

Box score · Line: Bills -3.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Bills

Expected: Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense, second on our defensive line list, against Josh Allen, and an offense under Kyler Murray that ranked 28th in points per drive (Ringer Staff). Murray was ruled out with a hamstring injury, and Carson Wentz started.

What decided it: Minnesota’s offense, or what was left of it. Wentz completed 8 of 25 passes for 81 yards with two interceptions and lost a fumble on a backward pass, and Max Brosmer replaced him in the fourth quarter. The Vikings finished with 178 yards and ran the ball 12 times. Their defense did its part: it sacked Allen four times, and Byron Murphy returned an interception deep into Buffalo territory. But Buffalo held the ball for 42:32. James Cook carried 31 times for 107 yards and a late touchdown, Allen hit Keleki Latu for a 25-yard touchdown just before halftime, and Tyler Bass kicked three field goals. Buffalo did it without left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson.

Power Rankings

Draft order for Chris to set. The outside columns are final.

BSL	Team	Rec	Pre	DVOA	ESPN	NFL.com	Prisco
1	49ers	7-1	14	2	2	1	2
2	Bills	7-1	3	4	1	2	1
3	Jaguars	6-2	17	1	3	3	3
4	Bears	7-2	16	10	4	4	4
5	Broncos	7-2	6	12	5	6	5
6	Bengals	6-2	12	3	7	5	7
7	Chiefs	6-2	11	9	6	10	6
8	Steelers	6-2	20	6	13	12	9
9	Lions	6-2	9	17	10	7	8
10	Vikings	6-2	19	15	8	11	11
11	Seahawks	5-4	2	5	9	9	14
12	Packers	6-3	13	11	11	8	10
13	Rams	5-4	1	8	12	17	13
14	Patriots	5-4	10	14	14	15	12
15	Buccaneers	3-6	18	7	18	14	16
16	Giants	5-2-1	24	24	15	13	15
17	Texans	3-5	7	13	17	16	19
18	Browns	5-4	31	25	16	19	17
19	Panthers	3-5	23	18	19	20	20
20	Falcons	3-6	26	20	23	18	21
21	Cowboys	4-5	15	16	20	22	18
22	Raiders	4-5	29	22	21	21	24
23	Ravens	4-5	5	19	22	28	22
24	Saints	3-5	21	29	26	23	23
25	Cardinals	3-6	30	23	25	27	25
26	Commanders	2-5-1	25	21	24	26	27
27	Jets	2-7	28	26	27	30	26
28	Eagles	2-7	4	28	28	31	28
29	Colts	2-7	22	27	29	25	30
30	Dolphins	1-7	32	31	30	29	29
31	Titans	1-7	27	30	31	24	31
32	Chargers	0-8	8	32	32	32	32

DVOA is FTN’s total through Week 9. ESPN is its Week 10 power panel, NFL.com is Nick Shook’s Week 10 rankings, and Prisco is Pete Prisco’s (CBS Sports) Week 10 list.

1. 49ers (1): Five takeaways in the second half at Las Vegas, and still first on our offensive line list. Keenan Allen arrives for a thin receiver room.

2. Bills (2): Held the ball for 42:32 in Minnesota without their left tackle and left guard. ESPN and Prisco have them first.

3. Jaguars (3): Beat Baltimore by 23 and lead FTN’s DVOA. The deadline brought Jessie Bates III, Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux.

4. Bears (5): Survived five turnovers against Tampa Bay on Jaylon Johnson’s pick-six and Cairo Santos’ last-second field goal. They pass Denver on a close call; both are 7-2.

5. Broncos (4): Five straight wins and 16 straight in one-score games, with our third-ranked defensive line. Bye this week.

6. Bengals (8): Four straight wins, 30 or more points in each, and third in DVOA. Pittsburgh comes to town Sunday night.

7. Chiefs (6): The run game came back against the Jets, but Patrick Mahomes’ right elbow needs more testing. One elite line (offense, fourth) and one weak (defense, 25th), so they’re ranked on results.

8. Steelers (10): Up two on their bye, with our sixth-ranked defensive line and sixth in DVOA.

9. Lions (11): Beat Miami without three defensive starters and added Andre Cisco. Patriots in Munich next.

10. Vikings (7): Down three after 178 yards in Buffalo with Carson Wentz. Their defensive line is second on our list, and Kirk Cousins is on the way.

11. Seahawks (12): Held Arizona to three points without Sam Darnold, and their defensive line is first on our list.

12. Packers (15): Up three after 45 points in New England. Both their lines are in our bottom 12 (offense 31st, defense 23rd), which by our rule would move them down; results win this week, and the lines keep them behind the 6-2 teams.

13. Rams (13): Myles Garrett had three sacks in his return, but Puka Nacua is headed to injured reserve and Matthew Stafford has gone four straight games under 225 yards.

14. Patriots (9): Down five after four turnovers against Green Bay. Both lines are still in our top 8, which by our rule moves a team up, but Will Campbell and Ben Brown left hurt, and the results come first this week.

15. Buccaneers (14): Five takeaways in Chicago and a loss anyway. Seventh in DVOA, on bye this week.

16. Giants (17): Seven sacks and their first win in Philadelphia in more than a decade. J.J. McCarthy’s hip is the question for Thursday.

17. Texans (22): Up five after eight sacks and C.J. Stroud’s five touchdowns against the Chargers. Our fifth-ranked defensive line, now with Marvin Harrison Jr. on offense.

18. Browns (16): Lost in overtime in New Orleans after giving up five sacks. Last on our offensive line list and fourth on our defensive list, so they’re ranked on results.

19. Panthers (18): Bryce Young threw three touchdowns in Denver, but the secondary is down to its backups.

20. Falcons (19): Never caught up in Madrid, and they traded Jessie Bates III to Jacksonville.

21. Cowboys (24): Up three on Dak Prescott’s 335 yards and CeeDee Lamb’s 195, despite 14 penalties. Their defensive line is last on our list.

22. Raiders (21): Allowed 30 or more for a sixth straight game, tying an NFL record, then traded Kirk Cousins.

23. Ravens (20): Down three after their fourth straight loss. Jacoby Brissett starts Monday against the Chargers.

24. Saints (26): Beat Cleveland in overtime behind five sacks.

25. Cardinals (23): Three points in Seattle, and Gardner Minshew is likely out for the season. Rookie Carson Beck starts.

26. Commanders (25): Scored once in the last 44 minutes against the Rams. At the Giants on Thursday.

27. Jets (27): 229 yards and no second-half points in Kansas City.

28. Eagles (28): Seven straight losses, seven sacks allowed Sunday, and no Jalen Hurts for the rest of the season. Bye this week.

29. Colts (29): Took Dallas to the final minute after trading Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner and Keenan Allen.

30. Dolphins (30): Zero for 3 in the red zone in Detroit, and fewer than 80 rushing yards for a second straight game.

31. Titans (31): On bye, and they sent Amani Hooker to Buffalo at the deadline.

32. Chargers (32): 0-8, eight sacks allowed in Houston, and 37 straight drives without a touchdown before Quentin Johnston’s catch.

Offensive Lines

Every line is judged on the season against the defenses it has faced, with injuries applied on top. Win rates don’t capture penalties. ESPN’s team win rates hadn’t been updated for Week 9 when we published, so the win-rate columns in both line lists run through Week 8; the sack and rushing columns include Week 9.

BSL	Team	Pass block	Run block	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC (vs. opp.)	Status
1	49ers	64% (1)	75% (6)	3.3% (-2.8)	4.6 (+0.5)	Held
2	Rams	53% (10)	77% (1)	3.3% (-2.5)	4.7 (+0.5)	Up 1
3	Bills	60% (3)	77% (2)	6.7% (-0.6)	4.5 (+0.4)	Down 1
4	Chiefs	52% (12)	74% (10)	4.0% (-2.5)	5.1 (+0.8)	Held
5	Patriots	58% (5)	76% (3)	6.6% (-0.3)	4.2 (+0.2)	Held
6	Bears	59% (4)	73% (20)	6.0% (-0.8)	4.2 (+0.2)	Up 1
7	Lions	54% (7)	74% (8)	6.5% (-0.4)	4.4 (+0.3)	Down 1
8	Falcons	48% (19)	73% (18)	5.9% (-0.9)	4.8 (+0.7)	New

• Rams (2): They moved past Buffalo on the season sack rate: 3.3%, tied with the 49ers and Raiders for the best in the league and 2.5 points under what their opponents allow. They also ran for 124 yards at Washington.
• Bills (3): They slipped a spot after taking four sacks at Minnesota without left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson. They still ran 44 times for 134 yards and held the ball for 42:32.
• Falcons (8): They’re in for the Steelers, who drop to ninth on their bye. Atlanta’s 4.8 yards per carry is 0.7 better than its opponents allow.
• Packers (31) and Browns (32): Still the bottom two. Green Bay ran for 129 yards at New England, but it ranks last in pass block win rate and averages 3.0 yards a carry. Cleveland gave up five more sacks at New Orleans and is at 11.8% for the season.
• Seahawks (20): They played without left tackle Charles Cross and Quenton Nelson. Ben Solak (ESPN) reports Nelson had a “minor procedure” on his knee and will miss a few weeks.
• First out: Steelers, Bengals, Colts.

BSL	Team	Pass block	Run block	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC (vs. opp.)	Last week
1	49ers	64% (1)	75% (6)	3.3% (-2.8)	4.6 (+0.5)	1
2	Rams	53% (10)	77% (1)	3.3% (-2.5)	4.7 (+0.5)	3
3	Bills	60% (3)	77% (2)	6.7% (-0.6)	4.5 (+0.4)	2
4	Chiefs	52% (12)	74% (10)	4.0% (-2.5)	5.1 (+0.8)	4
5	Patriots	58% (5)	76% (3)	6.6% (-0.3)	4.2 (+0.2)	5
6	Bears	59% (4)	73% (20)	6.0% (-0.8)	4.2 (+0.2)	7
7	Lions	54% (7)	74% (8)	6.5% (-0.4)	4.4 (+0.3)	6
8	Falcons	48% (19)	73% (18)	5.9% (-0.9)	4.8 (+0.7)	12
9	Steelers	53% (9)	73% (17)	7.3% (+0.1)	4.9 (+0.4)	8
10	Bengals	46% (25)	75% (5)	4.8% (-1.7)	3.9 (0.0)	9
11	Colts	50% (15)	75% (7)	7.6% (+0.6)	4.2 (+0.2)	10
12	Raiders	63% (2)	73% (15)	3.3% (-2.8)	2.9 (-1.0)	13
13	Broncos	47% (21)	74% (11)	3.7% (-1.7)	3.7 (-0.1)	11
14	Vikings	53% (11)	76% (4)	9.3% (+2.4)	4.0 (-0.1)	16
15	Buccaneers	52% (13)	73% (21)	10.1% (+2.6)	5.0 (+0.6)	14
16	Jaguars	46% (24)	74% (12)	5.4% (-1.8)	4.1 (-0.3)	15
17	Cowboys	53% (8)	69% (31)	4.0% (-2.4)	4.0 (-0.1)	17
18	Saints	45% (27)	74% (13)	6.1% (-1.3)	3.8 (-0.5)	18
19	Ravens	47% (21)	73% (19)	8.5% (+1.9)	4.7 (+0.2)	22
20	Seahawks	50% (16)	71% (28)	6.2% (-0.2)	3.9 (-0.1)	20
21	Commanders	57% (6)	68% (32)	7.0% (+1.3)	4.5 (+0.3)	23
22	Jets	52% (14)	72% (22)	9.4% (+2.3)	4.1 (-0.1)	21
23	Titans	40% (29)	71% (27)	5.0% (-2.0)	4.2 (-0.2)	24
24	Giants	50% (17)	73% (14)	9.2% (+2.6)	3.9 (-0.4)	19
25	Panthers	47% (23)	70% (30)	7.7% (+0.7)	4.3 (+0.1)	26
26	Dolphins	47% (20)	71% (26)	10.3% (+3.0)	4.4 (+0.2)	25
27	Texans	46% (26)	72% (23)	5.3% (-0.8)	3.6 (-0.9)	27
28	Cardinals	35% (31)	71% (29)	6.0% (-0.2)	4.1 (0.0)	28
29	Chargers	39% (30)	74% (9)	11.3% (+4.8)	4.1 (0.0)	30
30	Eagles	48% (18)	71% (24)	9.0% (+3.1)	3.7 (-0.5)	29
31	Packers	32% (32)	73% (16)	4.7% (-2.4)	3.0 (-1.2)	31
32	Browns	43% (28)	71% (24)	11.8% (+5.1)	3.8 (-0.2)	32

Defensive Lines

BSL	Team	Pass rush	Run stop	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC allowed (vs. opp.)	Def. DVOA	Status
1	Seahawks	58% (4)	31% (9)	7.0% (+1.0)	3.4 (-0.8)	-21.4% (2)	Held
2	Vikings	63% (1)	29% (23)	11.0% (+3.8)	4.2 (+0.1)	-17.6% (4)	Held
3	Broncos	55% (6)	31% (10)	7.0% (+1.3)	4.5 (+0.1)	-6.3% (9)	Held
4	Browns	53% (9)	34% (1)	8.0% (+0.6)	4.7 (+0.3)	-2.2% (13)	Held
5	Texans	49% (21)	30% (11)	9.5% (+2.8)	3.9 (-0.2)	-2.4% (12)	Held
6	Steelers	47% (25)	32% (5)	8.5% (+0.4)	3.6 (-0.5)	-12.0% (7)	Held
7	Buccaneers	54% (8)	31% (7)	5.2% (-1.6)	3.5 (-0.6)	-22.9% (1)	New
8	Patriots	52% (11)	29% (16)	8.0% (+1.4)	3.9 (-0.1)	-1.5% (15)	Held

• Buccaneers (7): They’re in, with the league’s best defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay held Chicago to 72 rushing yards and allows 0.6 yards per carry less than its opponents gain.
• Chargers (13): Out from seventh. They had one sack of C.J. Stroud and allowed 104 rushing yards to Houston.
• Browns (4): Held, with Maliek Collins out again. New Orleans ran for 160 yards.
• Seahawks (1): Held Arizona to 50 rushing yards and sacked Gardner Minshew three times.
• Jaguars (12): Moved up by hand from 24th on the numbers. Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux, both added at the deadline, go at the line’s weak spot: it’s last in run stop win rate, but third in defensive DVOA and fifth in pass rush win rate.
• 49ers (9) and Bears (15): Moved up by hand from 14th and 21st on the numbers. DeForest Buckner and Nick Bosa are both back in San Francisco, which allows 0.8 yards per carry less than its opponents gain. Jeffery Simmons has two games in Chicago, which is still without Grady Jarrett.
• First out: 49ers, Falcons, Ravens.

BSL	Team	Pass rush	Run stop	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC allowed (vs. opp.)	Def. DVOA	Last week
1	Seahawks	58% (4)	31% (9)	7.0% (+1.0)	3.4 (-0.8)	-21.4% (2)	1
2	Vikings	63% (1)	29% (23)	11.0% (+3.8)	4.2 (+0.1)	-17.6% (4)	2
3	Broncos	55% (6)	31% (10)	7.0% (+1.3)	4.5 (+0.1)	-6.3% (9)	3
4	Browns	53% (9)	34% (1)	8.0% (+0.6)	4.7 (+0.3)	-2.2% (13)	4
5	Texans	49% (21)	30% (11)	9.5% (+2.8)	3.9 (-0.2)	-2.4% (12)	5
6	Steelers	47% (25)	32% (5)	8.5% (+0.4)	3.6 (-0.5)	-12.0% (7)	6
7	Buccaneers	54% (8)	31% (7)	5.2% (-1.6)	3.5 (-0.6)	-22.9% (1)	10
8	Patriots	52% (11)	29% (16)	8.0% (+1.4)	3.9 (-0.1)	-1.5% (15)	8
9	49ers*	49% (20)	29% (22)	5.1% (-0.6)	3.3 (-0.8)	-10.8% (8)	13
10	Falcons	53% (10)	33% (3)	5.9% (-0.6)	4.4 (+0.2)	-4.5% (10)	9
11	Ravens	52% (13)	30% (12)	5.6% (-0.8)	3.6 (-0.5)	-1.6% (14)	12
12	Jaguars*	55% (5)	25% (32)	5.8% (-1.4)	3.7 (-0.3)	-18.8% (3)	19
13	Lions	59% (3)	28% (24)	7.9% (+0.4)	4.1 (+0.1)	10.0% (25)	11
14	Rams	52% (12)	33% (2)	5.2% (-1.4)	4.0 (0.0)	-12.3% (6)	15
15	Bears*	50% (16)	27% (26)	9.1% (+1.4)	4.4 (+0.3)	-1.3% (16)	20
16	Chargers	48% (22)	32% (4)	5.3% (+0.5)	4.1 (0.0)	3.9% (20)	7
17	Giants	61% (2)	29% (20)	5.9% (+0.2)	4.7 (+0.6)	1.5% (17)	18
18	Cardinals	52% (14)	29% (18)	6.5% (+0.6)	4.2 (+0.1)	12.2% (28)	14
19	Bengals	50% (17)	31% (8)	7.8% (+0.5)	5.0 (+0.6)	2.4% (19)	16
20	Commanders	50% (18)	29% (15)	5.4% (-1.0)	3.9 (-0.2)	4.3% (21)	17
21	Eagles	43% (31)	32% (6)	5.1% (-1.0)	4.1 (-0.1)	4.5% (22)	24
22	Saints	50% (15)	29% (17)	8.1% (+0.4)	4.5 (+0.4)	16.1% (30)	23
23	Packers	45% (29)	27% (27)	7.4% (+0.1)	4.0 (-0.3)	-16.5% (5)	21
24	Dolphins	50% (19)	26% (30)	5.2% (-0.7)	3.8 (-0.4)	11.5% (26)	27
25	Chiefs	48% (23)	29% (14)	4.8% (-2.1)	3.6 (-0.2)	-3.1% (11)	28
26	Jets	47% (24)	26% (31)	7.5% (+1.1)	4.1 (+0.1)	9.3% (24)	25
27	Bills	45% (26)	29% (19)	5.4% (-1.4)	3.9 (-0.2)	2.1% (18)	22
28	Titans	45% (28)	30% (13)	6.8% (-1.4)	4.2 (+0.2)	22.2% (32)	26
29	Panthers	54% (7)	28% (25)	4.1% (-3.1)	4.6 (+0.5)	7.6% (23)	29
30	Colts	40% (32)	27% (28)	6.7% (+0.5)	4.9 (+0.6)	12.1% (27)	30
31	Raiders	45% (27)	26% (29)	6.4% (-0.4)	5.0 (+0.6)	16.2% (31)	31
32	Cowboys	43% (30)	29% (21)	5.4% (-2.1)	5.0 (+0.9)	15.2% (29)	32

Moved by hand for players added or returned; the figures are as measured.

Win Totals

Projected final records. They add up to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, counted in both records, with 135 wins and the tie banked through Week 9.

Division	Projections
AFC East	Bills 13-4, Patriots 9-8, Jets 5-12, Dolphins 4-13
AFC North	Bengals 11-6, Steelers 11-6, Browns 8-9, Ravens 7-10
AFC South	Jaguars 13-4, Texans 8-9, Colts 5-12, Titans 4-13
AFC West	Broncos 12-5, Chiefs 11-6, Raiders 6-11, Chargers 2-15
NFC East	Giants 10-6-1, Cowboys 8-9, Commanders 6-10-1, Eagles 4-13
NFC North	Bears 12-5, Vikings 11-6, Lions 11-6, Packers 11-6
NFC South	Panthers 8-9, Buccaneers 8-9, Saints 7-10, Falcons 7-10
NFC West	49ers 13-4, Seahawks 10-7, Rams 10-7, Cardinals 6-11

• AFC seeds: Buffalo and Jacksonville for the top seed, Denver third and the AFC North winner fourth. Wild cards: the AFC North runner-up, Kansas City and New England. First out: Houston and Cleveland.
• NFC seeds: San Francisco, Chicago, the Giants and the NFC South winner. Wild cards: Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay. First out: Seattle and the Rams.
• Kansas City reversal: The first team out in August, the Chiefs are now 11-6, a game behind Denver and a wild card.
• Ties not projected: Buffalo and Jacksonville for the AFC top seed; Cincinnati and Pittsburgh (AFC North); Carolina and Tampa Bay (NFC South); Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay for second in the NFC North; Seattle and the Rams.
• What moved: Up one each, Bills, Jaguars, Broncos, Dolphins, Giants, Packers, Saints and Rams. Down one each, Patriots, Browns, Ravens, Raiders, Chargers, Eagles, Vikings and Cardinals.
• Ravens: 7-10 assumes Jacoby Brissett starts until Lamar Jackson’s return, which is no earlier than Dec. 13.
• Calls most likely to move after Week 10: Patriots 9-8 vs. Lions 11-6 (Munich); Vikings 11-6 at Packers 11-6; Steelers 11-6 at Bengals 11-6; Chiefs 11-6 at Falcons 7-10; Texans 8-9 at Browns 8-9; Chargers 2-15 at Ravens 7-10; Panthers 8-9 at Saints 7-10.

Week 10 Preview

Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay are on bye.

Commanders at Giants (Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video)

Line: Giants -2.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Giants 50.8%

Key to the Game: J.J. McCarthy’s hip and the Giants’ pass rush. McCarthy left Sunday’s win in Philadelphia with a hip injury and came back only for the last play of the third quarter, and now he has a short week. New York sacked Joe Milton seven times, three by rookie Arvell Reese, and gets a Washington line that’s 21st on our list and may be without Lucas Patrick (concussion). These teams tied in their first meeting.

Our Pick: Giants. Low confidence: ESPN’s model has it at a coin flip, and McCarthy’s hip could swing it.

Patriots vs. Lions (Munich, 9:30 a.m., Fox)

Line: Lions -2.5, 51.5 · ESPN: Lions 52.9%

Key to the Game: Who’s left on New England’s offensive line. Will Campbell and Ben Brown both left Sunday’s loss to Green Bay hurt, along with Carlton Davis III and Rhamondre Stevenson, and the line that’s fifth on our list was built with them. Detroit’s defense held Miami to nine points without Jack Campbell, D.J. Reed or DJ Wonnum, and it added safety Andre Cisco at the deadline. Drake Maye threw three first-half interceptions Sunday.

Our Pick: Lions.

Chiefs at Falcons (1:00, CBS)

Line: Chiefs -3.5, 45.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 76.3%

Key to the Game: Patrick Mahomes’ right elbow. He played through David Bailey’s hit Sunday and threw for 242 yards, but he’s having more testing, and Harrison Butker’s job is uncertain after two misses. Atlanta’s offensive line is eighth on our list against a Kansas City front that’s 25th, though the Chiefs sacked Geno Smith five times. The Falcons traded safety Jessie Bates III to Jacksonville at the deadline.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Texans at Browns (1:00, Fox)

Line: Texans -4.5, 39.5 · ESPN: Texans 78.6%

Key to the Game: Two mismatches, one each way. Houston’s defensive line, fifth on our list, sacked Justin Herbert eight times Sunday, and Cleveland’s offensive line is last after giving up five sacks in New Orleans. Cleveland’s front is fourth, against a Houston line that’s 27th. Deshaun Watson is expected back from his concussion, and the Texans added Marvin Harrison Jr. at the deadline.

Our Pick: Texans.

Vikings at Packers (1:00, Fox)

Line: Packers -3.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Packers 69.7%

Key to the Game: Minnesota’s quarterback. Kyler Murray missed Monday’s loss in Buffalo with a hamstring injury, Carson Wentz completed 8 of 25 passes, and the Vikings traded for Kirk Cousins at the deadline. Minnesota’s defensive line, second on our list, sacked Josh Allen four times and now gets a Green Bay line that’s 31st. Jordan Love threw for 372 yards against New England anyway.

Our Pick: Packers. Low confidence: Minnesota’s front is the biggest edge on the field, and a healthy Murray would change our read.

Jaguars at Titans (1:00, Fox)

Line: Jaguars -10, 46.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 84.0%

Key to the Game: How fast Jacksonville’s deadline additions fit. The Jaguars added Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux to a defensive line we’ve moved up to 12th by hand for those trades, after it fell to 24th on the numbers without DaVon Hamilton, and Jessie Bates III to a secondary that lost Eric Murray for the season. Tennessee is 1-7 and 23rd on our offensive line list.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Dolphins at Colts (1:00, CBS)

Line: Colts -2.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Colts 71.9%

Key to the Game: Whether Miami can run on an Indianapolis front that’s 30th on our list. The Dolphins have run for fewer than 80 yards in two straight games, and Malik Willis is playing through a groin injury. The Colts traded Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner and Keenan Allen and are down to five healthy receivers.

Our Pick: Colts.

Panthers at Saints (1:00, Fox)

Line: Saints -1.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Saints 50.0%

Key to the Game: Carolina’s secondary. The Panthers played Denver without their top four cornerbacks or either starting safety and were flagged for five pass interference penalties. New Orleans sacked Shedeur Sanders five times and gets a Carolina line that’s 25th on our list, but Erik McCoy (biceps) is a question for the Saints’ line.

Our Pick: Saints. Low confidence: ESPN’s model has it at exactly 50%, and we’re leaning on Carolina’s injuries in the secondary.

Bills at Jets (1:00, CBS)

Line: Bills -7.5, 50.5 · ESPN: Bills 80.0%

Key to the Game: Buffalo’s pass defense. The Bills allow the fourth-most passing yards per game (CBS), which is why they traded for Amani Hooker. The Jets managed 229 yards in Kansas City, and Garrett Wilson (concussion) missed that game. Buffalo beat Minnesota without Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson by keeping the ball for more than 42 minutes.

Our Pick: Bills.

Seahawks at Raiders (4:05, CBS)

Line: Seahawks -6, 40.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 60.3%

Key to the Game: Las Vegas’ quarterback. The Raiders traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota at the deadline and hadn’t named a starter when we published. Seattle’s defensive line is first on our list, and the Raiders have allowed 30 or more in six straight games. Drew Lock starts again with Sam Darnold ruled out, and Quenton Nelson is out a few weeks after a minor knee procedure.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Rams at Cardinals (4:05, CBS)

Line: Rams -9.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Rams 78.7%

Key to the Game: The Rams’ passing game without Puka Nacua, who’s headed to injured reserve. He caught 14 passes Sunday; the Rams’ other receivers caught four. Arizona starts rookie Carson Beck with Gardner Minshew likely out for the season, and Michael Wilson is out for the year too. Myles Garrett had three sacks in his return.

Our Pick: Rams.

49ers at Cowboys (4:25, Fox)

Line: 49ers -3.5, 55.5 · ESPN: 49ers 63.5%

Key to the Game: San Francisco’s offensive line, first on our list, against a Dallas front that’s last. The 49ers ran for 190 yards in Las Vegas. Dallas outgained Indianapolis by more than 200 yards Sunday but committed 14 penalties. Keenan Allen joins a 49ers receiver room that’s missing Christian Kirk.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Steelers at Bengals (Sunday night, 8:20, NBC)

Line: Bengals -3.5, 48.5 · ESPN: Bengals 70.3%

Key to the Game: Pittsburgh’s defensive line, sixth on our list, against a Cincinnati offense that has scored 30 or more in four straight wins. Joe Burrow completed 24 of 29 passes in Madrid, and the Bengals’ line is 10th. The Steelers are coming off their bye.

Our Pick: Bengals.

Chargers at Ravens (Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN)

Line: Ravens -5.5, 38.5 · ESPN: Chargers 55.1%

Key to the Game: Jacoby Brissett’s first start for Baltimore after the trade from Arizona, behind a run game that piled up 172 yards on Jacksonville. The Chargers are 0-8, and their line, 29th on our list, gave up eight sacks in Houston. Justin Herbert left that game late with a finger injury he says shouldn’t be an issue. Kyle Hamilton’s hip is the Ravens’ defensive question.

Our Pick: Ravens. We’re against ESPN’s model here: Brissett is an upgrade on Joe Fagnano, and Baltimore’s defensive line, 11th on our list, gets a Chargers line that just gave up eight.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. Running the ball didn’t decide much. The team with more rushing yards won 9 of 15 games. Jacksonville was outrushed 172-77 in Baltimore and won by 23, and Chicago was outrushed 126-72 and beat Tampa Bay anyway.

2. Neither did the sack count. The team with more sacks won nine games, and two were even. Cincinnati never sacked Michael Penix Jr. and won by 17, and Buffalo was sacked four times, twice as often as it sacked Carson Wentz, and still won 23-6.

3. Takeaways only count if you use them. Tampa Bay took the ball away five times in Chicago and got a field goal and a touchdown out of them. Green Bay turned four New England turnovers into 21 points.