Akin and Kremer have struggled; Who’s Next?

The Orioles pitching woes have reached new highs over the past month. With John Means sidelined due to a left shoulder strain and veterans Matt Harvey and Jorge Lopez struggling to make it past the fifth inning, the O’s have been forced to rely on a number of young arms to get them through games. The names that have been called on to this point include Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, and Bruce Zimmermann, the Orioles #8, #11, and #23 prospects according to BSL’s preseason rankings.

Akin has struggled mightily, pitching to a 7.11 ERA in ten outings with Baltimore this season. While he continues to strike out batters at a high rate, his inability to limit damage as evidenced by his .390 opposing average with runners on base leaves much to be desired. Kremer faced similar problems early in the season before being sent down to Norfolk. He was recalled not long after but his horrific outing Thursday vs. Toronto in which he allowed six runs and recorded just one out likely spelled the last time we will see him at the major league level for a while.

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Zimmermann, the least highly touted prospect entering the season, has seemed the most comfortable at the MLB level. Despite lacking a high velocity fastball or crazy breaking stuff, the local talent has pitched to a respectable sub-five ERA so far this season. Still, he will likely need to up his K/9 and bring down his H/9 if he is going to become a mainstay in the Orioles rotation for years to come.

The overall lack of success from these three young arms has opened the door for the next batch of Orioles prospects. Unfortunately, almost none of the pitchers in the upper minor leagues look ready to seize the opportunity. Let’s take a look at a few of the names that stand out.

Mike Baumann

Mike Baumann started the season as the O’s number 9 prospect on BSL’s list. After an impressive 2019 campaign in which he pitched to a 2.98 ERA in 24 outings between Frederick and Bowie, Baumann seemed prime to push for a spot on the MLB roster at some point during the 2020 season. But, due to both the pandemic and a Right Flexor Strain that he suffered in August, his progress was slowed and he wasn’t able to make the jump fans were expecting.

Baumann entered this spring looking to bounce back but has done quite the opposite. He began the season on a rehab assignment, making two solid appearances with Delmarva in mid-May before being called up to Bowie. Since arriving with the Baysox, however, he has pitched to a dreadful 8.64 ERA over just 16.2 innings of work. Whether the lingering flexor strain is to blame or not, Baumann’s strikeouts are down from what they were in 2019 and his BB/9 has doubled, leaving him unable to put away opposing hitters.

Fortunately, it’s not all bad news for Baumann. He has continued to dominate left-handed batters, holding them to just 5 hits in 33 at bats. It’s rare for a right handed pitcher to be significantly more effective against lefties than righties, but Baumann’s formidable fastball and slider mix has allowed him to do just that. Still, until he is able to show improvement with both his command and ability to get batters to swing and miss, it is unlikely that we will see Baumann at Camden Yards. Also obviously he’s going to have to show he’s fully healthy and capable of handling the Eastern League prior to earning a possible promotion to Baltimore.

Zac Lowther

Lowther, the Orioles second round pick in 2017, has already made a few appearances in Baltimore this spring. In just over five innings of work he has allowed eleven hits and nine earned runs, so needless to say, he has not impressed. Down at AAA Norfolk he has been a little bit better, pitching to a 5.18 ERA in 24.1 innings of work. While not horrendous, these numbers still illustrate a major step back from his dominant 2019 form.

One of Lowther’s strengths in 2019 was his ability to get the leadoff man. With the bases empty he held opponents to a .169 batting average while striking out nearly a third of the batters he faced. This year, however, quite the opposite has been the case. In fact, Lowther is allowing opponents to get on base almost 40% of the time when the bases are empty. His inability to keep the bases clear has forced him into too many difficult situations too early into ball games. Another thing that stands out with his AAA numbers is that he’s allowed 13 bb’s in those 24 innings. That’s clearly not sustainable.

Lowther has always been regarded as having high Pitching IQ. In the lower Minors he has been able to regularly locate the fastball and his curveball has helped him K batters at one of the highest rates in the Orioles system. Due to need, he figures to have additional chances. Like Baumann in the Eastern League, you’d like to see Lowther find a degree of success at Norfolk in the International League before he’s back in an Oriole uniform. As he continues with the Tides, I’ll be looking to see if he can illicit soft contact, and reduce his walk rates in subsequent starts.

Alex Wells

Regression from 2019 has seemed to be a theme among Orioles pitching prospects and Wells is no exception. The O’s most recent call up to the majors, Wells has not impressed at Norfolk this spring. In his first four years in the Orioles season he made steady progress, spending full seasons at Aberdeen, Delmarva, Frederick, and Bowie and never recording an ERA above 3.50. Norfolk was the final step before Baltimore but unfortunately, it has proved to be a roadblock.

Though he has won more games than he has lost, Wells numbers are nowhere near where he would like them to be. Both his H/9 and HR/9 are the highest they have been in his career, and his strikeout numbers have been unspectacular at best. In addition to making the jump this year to the International League, it should also be remembered that he was in Australia and didn’t participate in instructional camp last year. So it’s understand there were multiple adjustments for him this season. That said, there have always been questions with his ceiling.

In addition to need at the Major League level, another reason he earned his promotion was that since the start of June, opposing batters were hitting just .186 off of the lefty. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that he did not walk a batter in that span. Wells has always received high praise for his command and his last four AAA starts have illustrated why. Wells likely does not project as a ML starter, but perhaps he could add to the Baltimore bullpen?

Takeaways

Considering how inept the Orioles have looked over the past month at the Major League, there is significant opportunity for MiL prospects to ascend to the Majors. That playing time has to be earned, however, and it’s been frustrating to watch as some of the more experienced names in the system have yet to take advantage. We will see what Baumann and Lowther accomplish over the next Month, and what Wells does with his initial ML stint.

Fortunately for O’s fans, there are a slew of other pitching prospects ready to step up should those three not pan out. Everyone knows about Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall, but even guys like Kevin Smith and Kyle Bradish, who were both recently called up to AAA, have shown promise this year. If their success is not stalled at Norfolk, we can expect to see them in Baltimore before September. With so many innings left to fill this season, there is an abundance of opportunity (also time exists for Kremer to find himself again, and earn another shot).

We’re not expecting to see Rodriguez, and Hall in an Oriole uniform at any point this year; but with both currently at Bowie their ML debuts are not far away. An expected path would have both starting the ’22 season at AAA Norfolk, and finding their way into the Oriole rotation by late May next year once the O’s have gained an additional year of team-control.