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1. The Lamar Jackson saga rolls on. It’s been discussed ad nauseam. Don’t need your opinions on the whole situation. But what is the end game scenario you predict will happen?

Mike Fast: 3 year, $160 million, fully guaranteed (Kirk Cousins route). Not the total Lamar wanted, not the guarantee % the Ravens wanted.

Jamie Sieck: Ultimately, I think Lamar signs a long-term deal with Baltimore. Something in the neighborhood of 5 yrs/250 million with around 180 million guaranteed. The Jalen Hurts deal should act as catalyst to the Jackson-Ravens negotiations.

Mike Randall: I’ve been all over the place, as each day brings something new. One rumor is that the signing of OBJ was in part because Lamar Jackson recruited him. He’s also demanded both OBJ and Deandre Hopkins. The trade for Hopkins may be in the works. If so, that’s a strong indicator that maybe Lamar would be swayed into signing the tender. But I don’t think until camp starts. If a long-term deal isn’t reached. I don’t see a long-term deal coming in 2023.

2. How do you see the first two nights of the draft (First three rounds) playing out?

MF: Now with OBJ in the fold, WR first/picking at 22 takes a hit in probability. Most likely, the Ravens trade out of the first, take the best corner available, and pick up two extra picks. After corner, I see them solidifying the EDGE position in lieu of Campbell going to Atlanta, then taking the best OL available.

JS: I think DeCosta is not thrilled with having only 5 picks, so he will look to trade out of the 1st round to add more picks. However, I think a player will be there at 22 that they cannot refuse. If either Joey Porter Jr or Deonte Banks are on the board when the Ravens are on the clock, I think they will make the pick. The 3rd round is much more difficult to forecast but there are needs at EDGE, wide receiver and interior offensive line, so DeCosta will focus in those areas.

MR: The Ravens have the #22 pick in round one, and the #86 overall pick in round three. I’ve been saying as long as Jackson hasn’t signed the tender, treat the draft like he isn’t on your team. I tend to believe that the Ravens really think they can get a deal done with Jackson, to a fault. I could see a situation where one of the top four QBs is sitting there at #22, Ravens are on the clock. Earlier in the draft, one of Houston or Indy doesn’t get the QB they want. Instead of the Ravens taking one they entertain Houston to trade up from round two to snag one. The Ravens land maybe pick #33, and both their third rounders at picks #65 and #73. Of course Houston could simply take the QB Carolina doesn’t pick, then the ball is in the Colts court.

To go from #22 and #86, to #33, #65, #73, #86, seems like a very Ravens type move. Maybe they move from #33 back into the end of the first round for a minimal charge and take Hendon Hooker or Tanner McKee or something, giving them 5th year option rights by getting them in the first round rather than the second. On night two they have ammo then to draft guys at valuable non-skill positions where you can’t have enough depth. O-line. Cornerback. Edge.

3. Odell Beckham Jr is in the fold. He joins Nelson Agholor as the second free agent WR acquired this offseason. Thoughts on the WR group?

MF: People will always find something to complain about. These two guys make you ask one question: does adding them make the Ravens better. Absolutely, the answer is yes. Did they stretch themselves financially to bring OBJ in? Sure. Did they break the bank? Not quite.

JS: Regarding the wide receiver group, I think Nelson Agholor raises the floor of the group and Beckham, potentially, raises the ceiling. Both acquisitions come with questions. Beckham has health concerns but if he can stay on the field, he brings credibility to the group. Agholor, will stay on the field but he has issues with drops. He has averaged 12.5 yards per reception for hs career though. Overall, it was difficult not to improve this group, so in that regard, the Ravens wide receiver corps is better but I’m not over the moon.

MR: On name recognition it looks good. But I think people underestimate what Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay are capable of. It’s just a shame that Bateman hasn’t been healthy for a full season yet, and that the WRs as a whole were handcuffed by Greg Roman’s propensity to only have one out there at a time often, and give more playing time to the fullback and second and third tight ends. The moves don’t move the needle much for me. They look like upgrades over Proche and Wallace which counts for something. But I certainly don’t think either is going to be better than what Demarcus Robinson provided, or Sammy Watkins in 2021.

4. Assuming the Ravens do not enter the 2023 season with Tyler Huntley as the starting quarterback, what other areas on the team do you see a need for improvement?

MF: Edge, inside linebacker, interior OL are my Top 3 (apart from WR, obviously).

JS: My top priority is secondary help, specifically cornerback. Beyond Marlon Humphrey, the cornerback group is just guys. There’s no clear cut #2 corner or even a definitive slot corner amongst those on the roster at this time.

MR: Can’t have enough DBs. Marcus Peters is gone, and Chuck Clark was traded. Look around the AFC. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Rodgers is now a Jet, Lawrence turning the corner. Tua, when healthy, has put up great numbers with great weapons. Will Watson find his stroke again. Does Russ Wilson bounce back? How good will the rookies that Houston and Indy potentially draft be?

Point is you better be able to defend the pass in this conference. They have some stellar guys in Humphrey and Marcus Williams. But if Hamilton is playing in the box often, you’re going to need another safety. Brandon Stephens is serviceable on the outside. But one injury brings fringe practice squad guy Daryl Worley into the games. Have to have more depth here.

5. How about the coordinators? What might you expect from Todd Monken? Mike MacDonald has a year under his belt running the defense. What changes, if any, do you want to see in year two?

MF: Pace of play is the biggest thing I’m looking for out of Monken’s play calling. If the Ravens can eliminate delay of game penalties and the premature use of timeouts, I will be very pleased. As for Macdonald, no big changes are needed IMO. Of course, the 4th quarter needs to shore up, but I see that as player focus, not necessarily scheme. 

JS: On the offensive side of the ball, I would like to see Monken bring more balance overall. That balance would come from a more efficient passing game, with better route combinations and effectively spacing pass catchers. Also, I would like to see Monken get the other tight ends involved, even when Andrews is on the field.

On the defensive side, Macdonald just needs to build on last year. He showed that he could adapt his game plan to the competition, as opposed to Wink who clung to Cover 0, even when his personnel wasn’t congruent with that strategy. If Macdonald can take on a project, I would like to see him get more put of Odafe Oweh. The 3rd year edge rusher has flashed at times but has been mostly underwhelming thus far. I’d love to see Macdonald unlock Oweh’s potential.

MR: When it comes to Monken, coming from the college ranks the last few seasons, I expect a lot of the same things Lamar Jackson is used to. Shotgun or pistol formations. Running read options. It’s hard to tell what kind of things we’ll see as we have one NFL season of him as an OC to go by before he went to Georgia. Coming from Georgia he had some talented players. They scored big points against really good defenses in big games, meaning they were effective in the red zone which has to be improved here. I don’t think you should look at college stats as any measure. But the success they have had means he knows how to exploit a defense. He knows how to prepare for a big game. Those things aren’t that debatable. Mainly I’d like to see Monken NOT do some of the things Greg Roman would do. Run goal line sets 75 yards away from it. Have the second tight end your fullback out snapping guys like Rashod Bateman. Abandon J.K. Dobbins inside the ten-yard line. Take 25 seconds of the play clock to get a play in, giving the quarterback little to no time to read the defense.

MacDonald’s defense seemed to get right with the addition of Roquan Smith. Kyle Hamilton seemed to find his footing as the season went along as well. They checked a lot of boxes at season’s end, even if some individual games were stinkers at times. Good at keeping points off the board, good sack totals, good turnover totals. But I think around mid-season the Ravens schedule got soft as well. Without leading sacker Justin Houston, veteran big man Calais Campbell, biggest turnover creator Marcus Peters, I need to see MacDonald developing guys now. Odafe Oweh for one. His Michigan guy, David Ojabo in essentially his rookie year.

6. How hot is Coach Harbaugh’s seat? How hot would it be if you were in charge?

MF: Not hot. They’re always winning and overcoming adversity more time than not. Coaches like that aren’t easily found. To those who want him gone, be careful what you wish for.

JS: I have grown a little sour on John Harbaugh. Perhaps he’s catching some shrapnel from the Lamar saga but the way Harbaugh handled Jackson’s injury and subsequent media inquiries about the contract situation has been outright bad. With that said, Steve Bisciotti is all about continuity and regardless of how warm Harbaugh’s seat should be, barring an epic collapse, Harbaugh will be the Ravens head coach until he walks away.

MR: His seat is very comfortable. I’m convinced Steve Bisciotti will let Harbaugh be the coach for as long as he wants to, provided the Ravens continue to just barely do enough to sneak into the playoffs as a wild card team most years as the Bengals have become the class of the division.

If it was me, he would have been gone this past offseason. The circus around the end of the year would have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. Every time he’s in front of the microphone he’s talking out of both sides of his mouth. It’s not even what you would call coach speak, which I can live with.  I’m just over, all of it. Empowering players to be part of the decision-making process in the middle of a game. “4th down, wanna go for this?” “Should we go for two here?” These decisions need to be made well ahead of time. I think he does a great job Monday through Saturday, but Sunday I don’t think he brings anything to the table. The things he publicly says he wants to see them improve on, they don’t. So that message isn’t getting to his coordinators or position coaches. With an offensive coordinator search, and the possibility that Lamar Jackson might not be here, this was the perfect time to make a change. Let the next guy pick his OC, see what they can get out of Lamar, or draft their next QB.

7. Care to give a Lamar Jackson is our quarterback record/finish prediction for 2023, and a Lamar Jackson isn’t our quarterback prediction?

MF: Would like to see the schedule first, but as for now: With Lamar: 13-4. Without Lamar: 9-8.

JS: Record predictions are so tough at this point because there are so many unknowns between now and week 1. For the sake of fun, with Lamar, I think this team has a 13 win ceiling but will realistically be 11-6/12-5. Without Jackson, they would compete for sure but end up around 7-10/8-9.

MR: With Lamar Jackson, healthy all season I’ll say 11-6. I think they can win seven of the nine home games, but the road games and the west coast trips will all be tiny favorites, or underdogs. 11-6 is not enough to unseat the Bengals from the top of the division. 6 seed, maybe a repeat visit with the Bengals or a trip to Buffalo to open the playoffs. One and done.

Without Lamar Jackson, it depends on the quarterback. With a rookie, or a veteran still hanging around out there, I think the supporting pieces are there to win at most 10 games, but more like 8 or 9. With Tyler Huntley, more like 6 wins. He’ll make too many mistakes costing them games.

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While Jackson is agent-less, the NFLPA has been lending him advice. That advice after the Deshaun Watson deal from Cleveland of 6/$230M fully guaranteed, is to seek more than that. Now, just about everyone you talk to, except members of the players union apparently, would tell you that the Watson deal is ridiculous and sets an unreal bar for teams to match. On the other hand, I see where the union is coming from as most contracts are structured in a way where the final years never see the light of day, and players can be cut without pay before the contract runs out. They want owners to honor the contracts in full. Baseball does it. Basketball does it. Why not the NFL, right?

Watson wasn’t the first person to get a fully guaranteed deal. Others have, but on smaller scales. Since the Watson deal, other QBs like Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson have signed the same old traditional kind of contract, likely to the NFLPA’s dismay.

Agents have their clients’ best interests in mind, sit with them at the negotiating table, and understand things like a counteroffer, and compromise. The NFLPA has what they think is everyone’s best interests in mind and are using Lamar Jackson as a pawn to hopefully get one step closer to guaranteed contracts becoming the norm for everyone else. Jackson, while being advised by the NFLPA, turned down a six-year, $250M offer with $133M guaranteed at signing. Numbers which when broken down, eclipses all the check boxes the deals Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray had signed. But it didn’t eclipse the guaranteed money in the Watson deal. So negotiations were halted as the regular season was about to start.

It begs the question, did the NFLPA cost Lamar Jackson his payday? He bet on himself, the NFLPA is betting on him. Right now, I think they are losing.

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I wrote back in January of 2019, before we had any idea the Lamar Jackson was going to turn in an MVP performance that season, that looking at the league, the best route to playoff success was locking in elite level QBs or going with a young quarterback and spending to build around them. Many teams wanted to make their pretty good quarterback a franchise quarterback with a long-tern extension, and it hasn’t gone well. At least what I consider well. Andy Dalton’s Bengals, Derek Carr’s Raiders, no thanks to being either of those teams. From that time on, I’ve been a believer that you spend big on elite, or to look to the draft and spend big around them in that four-five year window of rookie and 5th year option wages.

I also laid out here prior to the season what a $250M fully guaranteed contract could look like, and if structured a certain way, it doesn’t have to be a major salary cap burden, if you bet on the salary cap growing at a higher rate with new TV deals on the horizon and putting the Pandemic in the rear view.

The problem now is figuring out where Lamar Jackson stands. You see, this offseason he was only two years removed from a unanimous MVP season. Well, they couldn’t reach a deal, and now he will be three years removed when talks resume. He looked like he had something to prove through the first three games of season where he accounted for 12 touchdowns. Of course, there was room for regression. But he’s been mediocre or worse since. Despite winning games, which is a team effort. In his last seven games he has accounted for only seven touchdowns. Only once in that span has he accounted for more than one score in a game. He also hasn’t come close to a 100-yard rushing day since week 3.

With each passing day, the MVP season carries less and less weight while current games will carry more.

Let’s look at where Lamar Jackson has measured up over the years in some rankings.

Accuracy %

2019 – 12th  2020 – 19th  2021 – 18th   2022 – 20th (Weeks 4-11, 21st)

I’m not too worried about the drop off here. The difference in Jackson in 20th and Josh Allen in 13th in 1 percentage point.

Turnover worthy play %

2019 – 2nd 2020 – 21st 2021 – 19th 2022 – 9th (11th)

Again, I’m not too worried here. The difference between him and Patrick Mahomes is 0.4%. It’s miniscule.

Big time throw %

2019 – 6th 2020 – 11th 2021 – 12th 2022 – 10th (24th)

Pro Football Focus’ definition of a big-time throw: A pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.

This is where my concern grows. Just with the eye test, you can tell Lamar has been lacking in this department since he exploded with 10 passing touchdowns in the first three weeks, a few of the big play variety. If for the majority of season so far Jackson ranks 24^th in this category, then the only other qualifying QBs worse at making big time throws are Kenny Pickett, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, and Matt Ryan.

Passer rating on throws over 20+ air yards

2019 – 6th  2020 – 22nd 2021 – 26th 2022 – 27th (26th)

Looks obvious that this is something that contributes to great seasons. Better throws in these situations lead to big yardage. Big yards can lead to touchdowns, and all those counting stats that add up to dollars in salary. But also, more turning point plays in games, or soul crushing plays that suck the air out of an opposing defense. In 2021 the leaders were Kirk Cousins (guaranteed contract), Josh Allen (already extended), Patrick Mahomes (massive contract in total dollars), Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson whom both earned major extensions this offseason. Then Davis Mills. Yeah, I don’t know either.

QBR

2019 – 1st 2020 – 7th 2021 – 17th  2022 – 8th

QBR tries to assign a rating to the entire body of work. Weighted on importance. Converting a 2nd and 8 in your own territory is worth less than converting a 3rd and 6 to move into scoring range for example. Want to say Lamar Jackson has been a top-ten quarterback for three of his four seasons, I could buy that. But is top-ten worth giving top-two money to? Or the most fully guaranteed money in history to? The funny thing is, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow are mentioned quite a bit as the QBs next to come after Jackson who will get paid huge deals. Yet both have a worse QBR than Jackson on the year. 12th and 14th respectively.

Pressures turned into sacks %

2019 – 10th 2020 – 19th 2021 – 22nd  2022 – 19th (28th)

As I start to investigate the running stats, this is a good place to start. When the play breaks down, what is his ability to make something happen. In 2019, as an MVP, he was pretty damn elusive. How has this gotten worse, especially over the last eight weeks? Not only is he not getting back to the line of scrimmage for positive yards enough, but he’s also not finding a receiver either. For someone who routinely gets called a “cheat code”, “video game ability”, why does this stat suggest he’s been a statue in the pocket. Just from watching, we know he hasn’t been. His ability to gain something from nothing just hasn’t been there like it was as an MVP. Maybe he takes off but is brought down rather quickly these days.

For these running categories, listed is Jacksons rank among all players, with ranking among QBs in parenthesis. * Injury shortened season, missed nearly five games.

Missed tackles forced

2019 – 12th (1st)  2020 – 19th (1st)  2021 – 14th (1st) *  2022 – 13th (2nd)

Yards after contact per attempt

2019 – 10th (2nd)  2020 – 52nd (3rd)  2021 – 41st (3rd)  2022 – 16th (4th)

Designed runs over 15 yards

2019 – 5th (1st)  2020 – 5th (1st)  2021 – 40th (3rd) *  2022 – 7th (1st)

Elusive rating

2019 – 16th (1st)  2020 – 69th (1st)  2021 – 58th (3rd)  2022 – 18th (1st)

That is a lot of “1st” among QBs in the running stats. Not the least bit surprising. I think when you are ranking in the top-20 in these things, including running backs, that is special. When you aren’t, well its nice, but not game changing.

Was Jackson really this bad of a runner in 2021 compared to all other runners?  You go from 5th, 5th, to 40th in designed runs over 15 yards. Who is that on? 2021’s offense line was a complete disaster. I’d say a lot can be contributed to that. But I expect Jackson to be the “video game” kind of runner, independent of the offensive line provided for him. The O-line is better in 2022 for sure. Look at that, the running numbers back on the come up. But can we expect his legs to be less of a factor if the O-line suffers some injuries? If in coming years, the O-line is not as good compared to other years?

I ask these questions as we continue to assess, how much is Lamer Jackson worth? Worth fully guaranteeing $250M to? Worth a $500M contract like Patrick Mahomes?  

The Ravens of course are not making this decision in the next seven games plus playoffs. They are going to the playoffs, right?

Last week I talked about the weak schedule ahead for the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. To be honest, he’s had a “game manager” esque last seven games. He’s got seven more (at least) to try to earn what he’s asked for. To me, he hasn’t earned it to this point, and 2019 is only farther away now than it was in August.

While a decision still doesn’t have to be made this coming off-season with the franchise tag in play for 2023, Jackson could hold out at any time. To earn what he wants, I want to see some increases in the big time throw department. I want to see him connect on some of those deep passes. The plays have been called. The receivers often open. He’s just off the mark with the throws more often. I’d like to see him evade pressure. Trust his legs more when the first couple reads aren’t there. Sacks are negative plays, and with his legs, shouldn’t happen as often as they are.

I have to stick to my guns here. When it comes to QBs, I would extend your elite, and try again in the draft otherwise. Lamar Jackson was elite…once. Top-ten is not elite. Top-five, maybe. A quarterback accounting for on average just one TD a game for almost half a season is not someone I’m interested in extending long term. Don’t be that guy.

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Baltimore is coming out of their bye and will have played one game in the last 23-days when they take the field at home against Carolina. Not just getting healthy from major injuries. But just getting to rest those aches, bumps, bruises for a decent amount of time should give them a little extra giddy up with a few sub-par opponents on the horizon.

This Sunday they host the Panthers at 3-7 and all three of those wins, oddly enough, came in the division. They aren’t exactly great in any unit on the field. Ravens were favored by -12.5, and that line has since moved to -13, so even more money is coming in on the Ravens by nearly two touchdowns. We should not be sweating this game in the 4^th quarter. Even with our old foe Baker Mayfield getting the nod again. Carolina is 31^st in weighted DVOA which is kind of a “what have you done for me lately” stat. The Ravens are 4^th behind Buffalo, Philly, Dallas, and one spot ahead of Kansas City.

In week 12 they will head to Jacksonville, another team currently at 3-7 who may not as bad as the Panthers despite having the same record. Even with Travis Etienne hitting his stride of late, they still have lost six of their last seven games, including games against the Colts and Texans. The line might not be -13, but maybe -10.5 with the hook and the Ravens should still win this one.

The Ravens come back home for week 13 and find themselves in an interesting matchup against the currently 3-6 Broncos who sports the league’s worst offense, and the league’s best defense, with regards to points scored and allowed. I think the defensive numbers aren’t telling the whole story as their schedule has been quite easy so far. Against the Raiders, Colts, Chargers, Jaguars, Jets, and Titans, the Broncos are 1-5. They have the Raiders up again, and the Panthers before coming here. Denver’s defense ranks 4^th in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile the Ravens have played five teams in the top-ten in defensive DVOA, and are 4-1 against them. The “1”, Buffalo, ranked number one, a game the Ravens led 20-3 at one point.  The Ravens should present quite a challenge to their defense that they have yet to see, and given the Denver offense, maybe only 17 points wins the game anyway.

Week 14 is our first look at the rival Steelers. I don’t really have much to say other than, forget what you think you know in these rivalry games. We don’t have the whole book on rookie Kenny Pickett yet, but some lopsided quarterback matchups have led to head scratching victories in this rivalry game, on both sides. Ryan Mallet in the mustard pants anyone? He beat the Steelers in a week 16 game that ended their playoff bid. The Steelers needed a win in week 17 of 2019 to go the playoffs as well. The Ravens with a first-round bye locked up played the second stringers and Robert Griffin III won that game. Charlie Batch came to Baltimore and recorded a win against a Ravens team that went on to win the Super Bowl, and cost Cam Cameron his job as offense coordinator. It’s always going to be who wants it more, and who makes less mistakes.

The Ravens will host the Steelers in week 17. Both games the Ravens will be very much favored. There was a time when the Ravens defense would absolutely embarrass rookie quarterbacks. Let’s do that.

The Ravens head to Cleveland for week 15, and all signs point to DeShaun Watson going from under investigation to under center for his third game of the year at that point. He hasn’t played football in two seasons. We’ll see how he looks. This is where an addition like Roquan Smith is so important to slow down a guy like Nick Chubb, the only other real weapon they have. Weather could obviously play a factor in mid-December out there. But again. The Ravens are clearly the better team.

On Christmas Eve the Ravens host the Falcons. Take that team out of the dome and into the potential cold, wet elements? Ravens all day. The Falcons are one of the league’s worst defenses, and as an NFC team, that doesn’t see Lamar Jackson enough to even kind of prepare properly, it’s another game the Ravens ought to roll.

We talked Steelers, and then the season wraps up with a trip to Cincinnati. The Ravens won round one of this divisional feud back in week 5, 19-17. The Bengals are caliber of divisional team that you hope to split with. A ton can change between today and January 8, 2023. But today this game is a toss-up. If the Ravens are 13-3 entering the game, it’s possible that this game doesn’t matter for playoff seeding and they rest players. Or it’s possible that the AFC’s number one seed is up for grabs as the only team with less than three losses in the AFC is the two-loss Chiefs and maybe they have dropped another game or two by then.

Bottom line is, the Ravens are fortunate right now, all things considered. The offensive line is in its best shape in two years. Rashod Bateman will be missed, but the Ravens don’t rely on their wide receivers as much as other teams. They are a running team and Kenyan Drake doesn’t look like the retreads of 2021. Gus Edwards is on his way back, and a J.K. Dobbins free of scar tissue may return during that stretch run of divisional games in December and be back to his 2020 self. Or at a minimum be fresh legs against tired teams. Roquan Smith was a missing piece that makes others on the defense around him better. Kyle Hamilton is getting better each week. Just like Bateman, we miss Michael Pierce, but Broderick Washington has stepped up big time on the defensive front. Marcus Williams will make a return a few weeks and we’ve seen him force turnovers at a nice rate before the wrist injury. They just got Tyus Bowser back, and rookie edge rusher David Ojabo may debut soon. Given how good Justin Houston has been and the attention he’ll command, Ojabo may be in the best position to shine.

If the Ravens can avoid major injury to major players, they will be heading into the home stretch with the roster in peak form, minus Bateman and Pierce, who are nowhere near the impact absences that Ronnie Stanley had been, or Lamar Jackson missing the last five games of 2021 had been, frankly all the injuries in 2021.

With the roster as constructed, if you can’t go 7-1 in these next eight…I’ll even give you 6-2 incase the rival Steelers surprise you in what will be their Super Bowl this season, then we have a problem. This team is that good and has reinforcements coming back. Mark Andrews, Gus Edwards, Dobbins and Williams I mentioned. Cross your fingers for good health, and we should be in for a fun ride.

You got to love that fourth-place schedule. The Ravens get the Jaguars and Broncos instead of the Titans and Chiefs. It also got them the Giants instead of Cowboys, but we saw how that one turned out.

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On an individual level…

IPOs: Guys who are getting their first chance on this team, guys who haven’t debuted this season yet, or are rookies we don’t expect to see much from. Their newest initial public offering is DeSean Jackson. Soon to come, Gus Edwards, Tyus Bowser, and David Ojabo.

Holding steady: All these guys are pretty much performing as expected, good or bad, even if it isn’t as much as expected.

Tylan Wallace and James Proche. It’s just hard getting these guys looks when you run as much as the Ravens tend to do at times, and with the number of targets the tight ends earn.

Daniel Faalele played some in Patrick Mekari’s absence before Ronnie Stanley could return. He’s back to redshirting until needed again. Pepe Williams is another rookie who looks, a lot like a rookie.

Tyler Huntley, Trystan Colon, Del’Shawn Phillps, Kristian Welch, and Keyvon Seymour just rarely if ever see the field. Geno Stone was on this list until Marcus Williams went down with a wrist injury.

Marcus Peters is what he is, you take the good with the bad, but he’s good often.

Patrick Ricard, Nick Moore, and Justin Tucker have one job, and are doing great at it, as per usual. Their stock is high and remains so. Another one who has been great, continues to be great, Mark Andrews. He’s a blue chipper, and leading tight ends in efficiency with 2.32 yards per route run. Among tight ends he is second behind Travis Kelce in catches, tied for first with him in yards, and second behind him in touchdowns. Those two are in a class by themselves.

Trending down: First and foremost, Lamar Jackson. 12 total touchdowns in the first three weeks. Three in the last three weeks. Averaging four a game isn’t sustainable, but you must do better than one per. He’s also been missing his deep targets, and not just by a little bit. It’s a team game, but he may have single handedly cost the Ravens the win in the Giants game with an interception on a pass he had no business throwing, and then a botched snap fumble. Both setting up the Giants on short fields for them to score easy touchdowns, erasing yet another double-digit lead.

J.K. Dobbins missed most of the Giants game after his knee “tightened up”. That’s not what you want to hear, especially after the guy was on a pitch count to begin with. Now his knee is going to be scoped costing him another 4-6 weeks. I’ll err on the side of six, meaning maybe Week 12 he is back to practice, but good enough to suit up for a game? If he’s being eased into things for a few games again, well, we will almost be waiting until next season to see what he can do.

Demarcus Robinson has seen his small contribution drop. Could be a reason DeSean Jackson was brought in.

Kyle Hamilton. I expected more from a guy who was supposed to be a top-10 pick, but it is a crowded secondary so I’m not going to sell just yet. Despite the fact he’s allowed eight catches on the nine times he’s been targeted.

Jayln Armour-Davis is another rookie but was absolutely toasted in the Patriots game, has seen his opportunity drop as a result, been a healthy scratch at times.

About the entire front seven. None of them rank inside the top-30 in pressures generated. Odafe Oweh leads the team with 18, good enough for 38th in the league, and one sack to show for it. Kind of like his college output. If I remember that one sack correctly, Josh Allen tripped over him rather than Oweh bringing him down. Patrick Queen leads the team in run stops but is 25th best in the league. Three different Saints players have more run stops than Queen. Too many manageable down and distances allowed by this group. Teams also pick on Queen in the passing game. His 36 targets are second most among linebackers, and he’s allowed 29 catches.

Jordan Stout. He’s 18th in hang time and 30th in Net punting yards. Not enough downed inside the 20, and too many touchbacks. Much more should be expected when you draft a punter in round four. I feel like any undrafted guy have performed as well, or better to this point.

Injuries have gotten to Ben Cleveland, Justin Houston, Justice Hill, Rashod Bateman. Cleveland was hardly playing anyway, but the other three will have a chance to see their stock bounce back.

You can put the entire coaching staff in this category as well. John Harbaugh’s sideline demeanor is one of someone that is tired. Indecisive. Certainly not inspiring. That was his best trait, that and as a special teams coach he could get the most out of the 53rd man on the roster. Mike MacDonald’s defense is allowing late game collapses at a historic rate. Those defensive failures can be mitigated if Greg Roman’s offense could hum for four quarters, but it too seems to stall at the worst times.  

Going broke: Nick Boyle, where have you gone? Fourth tight end, meaning on any other team he isn’t even rostered. Mike Davis is deep in the doghouse after a Week 1 fumble and Kenyan Drake’s hot hand. A.J. Klein got to see his first action on special teams after being signed two weeks ago, and immediately committed a stupid late hit personal foul. Nice knowing you.

Trending up: The O-line. Ben Powers, Tyler Linderbaum, Kevin Zeitler and Morgan Moses all rank in the top-50 in pressures allowed. With Ronnie Stanley getting back in the mix, and Patrick Mekari proving to be that swiss army knife when needed, its got a chance to be a deep, elite unit. Last week against the Giants they opened some major holes for the running game. Kenyan Drake went 30-yards untouched for a score.

The other tight ends. Josh Oliver is seeing slightly more snaps than rookie Isaiah Likely, and last week showed off some amazing hands. A couple tough grabs. He’s Pro Football Focus’ number eight graded run blocker among tight ends, and only one tight end with more run blocking snaps than Oliver has a higher grade (Mercedes Lewis). Isaiah Likely came out cold in week 1 with a couple drops, but as second or third option, he’s coming along.

Devin Duvernay. Good things happen with the ball in his hands. He’s getting more touches since Rashod Bateman went down, and they are using him out of the backfield as well. Jackson has a 128.5 passer rating when he targets Duvernay. Duvernay’s All-Pro status as a kick returner hasn’t diminished either.

Kenyan Drake rushed for 119 yards against the Giants, and averaged 6.5 Y/A, and 11.9 Y/A in the last two games respectively.

Marlon Humphrey is back to his old self. Receivers are not gaining many yards after catch when he’s targeted. The last three weeks he’s allowed seven catches his way, and a grand total of eight YAC. Only for a passer rating of 55.3 against him.

Chuck Clark has been good in coverage as well only allowing four catches in the last three games. He’s playing a lot more in the box as the average depth of target on five targets was just 2.8 yards.

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Let’s jump right in. The following win probabilities come from Pro-Football Reference’s Win Probability Calculator, or from Number Fire’s live, real time win probability. So for the “what if” scenarios, only the PFR calculation will be used, which takes into account the point spread of the game, probably as a way to measure who the stronger team may be.

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It’s 3rd and Goal. The Ravens, three-point dogs in this game, have the ball on the Buffalo 4-yard line. It’s the 4th quarter. 4:59 to play. Game tied at 20.

The Ravens win probability by PFR is 70.2%. Number fire, 76.1%. Lamar Jackson scrambles up the middle for about a yard and a half. You can’t put half yards in the calculator, so we’ll say he got one yard.

It now becomes 4th and goal, with three yards needed to cross the goal line. Decision time. Their new win probability is PFR, 65%. Number Fire, 75.6%. Number fire didn’t penalize them hardly at all. But Pro Football Reference took over five percent away for not scoring on 3^rd down. Interesting.

Here is where John Harbaugh is faced with the decision. We know the options and we’ll get to those probabilities shortly. What played out was going for the touchdown, not getting it, and salt in the wound, an interception which brought the ball out for the Bills to start on their own 20-yard line instead of pinned back on their own 3.

It’s 1st and 10, Buffalo on their own 20, 4th quarter, 4:09 to play, tie game. Ravens WP = 46.2% Number fire 47.3%. The Ravens would not be the favorites to win the game anymore, nor did they even get the ball back in this one. Their win probability fell by 18.8%, or 28.3% depending on which publication you go with.

What else could have happened?

Ravens kick the field goal and take a three-point lead, the Ravens WP = 62.4%. Let’s go back. Before the snap on 4th down it was a WP of 65%. Ravens WP would have gone down 2.6% if they make the field goal. Further, PFR considers the point spread. If you flip the script and make the Ravens a three-point favorite, like they are this Sunday night against the Bengals (for some reason) their WP goes up from kicking the FG to 69.8%. I could buy this being a factor when you’re looking a college football where some games feature a very wide gap in talent, talking 30 and 40+ point spreads. But not at the NFL level. If you set the calculator to a pick em’ Vegas line, the Ravens still increase their WP ever so slightly with a FG, up to 66.2%. That’s probably what you should be using in a game like this. Jets versus Chiefs, okay, maybe you take some of the likely 17.5 point spread into account.

Is there a flaw in this system? In what world is taking the lead, any lead, with four minutes to play a bad thing? Is simply giving the ball to the other team with anything less than a touchdown a losing proposition?

I’m going to keep the -3 Vegas line in the Bills favor in the calculations moving forward, even though I think it makes for wild swings among pretty much equal teams.

If the Ravens don’t convert but don’t give Buffalo, the touchback with the interception. Buffalo starts on their own 3-yard line. Ravens WP = 52.3%. In this case the WP dropped 12.7%, but the Ravens still have the higher probability of winning.

The difference in taking the easy points with the Tucker chip shot, and not converting without turnover is 10.1%. But the probability of winning is still in your favor by 2.3%. Is that all John Harbaugh cares about? 2.3%? As in, if you do this 100 times (which you won’t, would still be a small sample size. you basically get to do this exact thing once) you would be still expected to win 2.3 more times even if you screw it up every single time?

If the Ravens score a touchdown, assuming they kick the PAT (with this group of decision makers, who the hell knows), Ravens WP is 83%. It would have gone up 18%.

While the Ravens may use a different win probability calculator than PFR (I should hope they are with Ivy League computer programmers on staff) John Harbaugh basically wanted his win probability to change in his favor by 18%, rather than decline by 2.6% with the field goal, even if it meant the risk was a drop in win probability by 12.7% by not converting at all. But he forgot, or was not informed in his headset, the variable of the interception which made it a decline in win probability of 18.8%.

The risk did not outweigh the reward. I don’t fault Lamar Jackson for throwing the interception. He shouldn’t have been out there in the first place. It should have been Justin Tucker and the field goal unit.

Win probability calculators shouldn’t carry so much weight. It takes nothing else into account except how many teams in that situation are expected to win their game. A computer has no feel for the game. No sense of how the teams perform, other than the Vegas line. WP goes down slightly with the field goal because you are then giving the other team the ball. But wouldn’t you like to give the other team the ball with a lead rather than not? Let the opposition be the ones pressured into playing mistake free football to earn the chance to retake the lead.

Harbaugh, constantly finds himself in these head scratching moments of trying to win a game in one spot when a game isn’t even over. That’s what chaps my hind about him. I really think he tends to believe that those acts of aggression win you the game, in that instant. Or I feel like he is so blinded by the reward that he refuses to see the risk. Like the two point try in the Packers game last year. Ravens could have taken a one-point lead. But Aaron Rodgers had more than enough time to move the Packers into field goal range for a game winning field goal anyway. Ravens failed the attempt, and the Packers kneel out a one-point victory, rather than kicking the extra point, maybe entertaining the possibility of overtime, more football, where you can still win.

What if the interception here is a pick 6 and Buffalo takes a 7-point lead? Ravens WP then, 11.6%. A 53.4% decline from the start of the play. When they talk about game changing moments, that certainly could have been one. These things should be accounted for if you are going to be a slave to the numbers. 

The Bills had time to operate. A lot of it. If the Ravens did get the seven points, when the Bills march all the way down the field to the Ravens 11-yard line with a 1st and 10 coming and 1:50 left, you’re win probability in that spot is only 67.9%. Only 2.9% better, than where you started, way back when you had to make the 4th down decision in the first place! When Devin Singletary takes it down to the 3-yard line on that play. Ravens WP dropped to 59.1%. Worse than where you started.

What played out.

Ravens 65% WP before the snap on the 4th and goal.

Jackson INT – WP = 46.2%

Bills drive the field, Oweh tackles Singletary at the Ravens 3 – WP = 8.3% (If he lets him score, WP = 8.5%. Hardly a difference).

Bass FG – WP = 0.0%

And here was Harbaugh’s response post-game.

“”Right. Well, I felt like it gave us the best chance to win the game because seven [points], the worst that happens is if they go down the field and score – and I think we’ll get them stopped – but if they go down the field and score a touchdown, the worst thing that can happen is you’re in overtime. But you kick a field goal there, now it’s not a three-down game anymore, it’s a four-down game. You’re putting them out there, you’re putting your defense at a disadvantage because they’ve got four downs to convert all the way down the field and a chance to again score seven, and then you lose the game on a touchdown. So, then the worst thing … The other thing you think you’re going to get the ball at the two-yard line, so I’m very confident in the defense’s ability to stop them down there with the ball on the two-yard line, so we have them backed up if we didn’t get it. It didn’t turn out that way, unfortunately, and we lost the game. So, hindsight, you could take the points, but if you look at it analytically, understand why we did it.””

It sounds like someone who was thrown a curveball question (which this wasn’t) and the response is spew out enough words that hopefully the right answer comes out somewhere, and it doesn’t. “…look at it analytically, understand why we did it.” Sounds like, “we’re smarter than you, you wouldn’t understand.” Yeah. I understand that I rather have a lead, any lead, than not, when the other team has the ball toward the end of the game.

In my opinion, win probability machines are fun little tools to play with, but not to be used for in game decision making. It’s fun to look back on in hindsight. To look and say a team that is a 3.5-point favorite that just took a 21-point lead with 26 seconds left in the third quarter has a win probability of 99.9%. This was the Ravens in Week 2 against the Dolphins by the way. Right before everything that could go wrong did and the Dolphins, by the calculator, did something a team would be able to do once in 1,000 tries.

I don’t think it is a tool to be used to drive in game decision making. Harbaugh didn’t want his win probability to drop 2.6% by kicking the field goal. Even though your win probability is going to drop when the other team gains a few yards on their ensuing drive anyway.

I’m done with Harbaugh’s manner of managing a game. It doesn’t work. Especially when he spends half the game looking like a casual observer rather than a coach. Like letting the play clock run out on a Tucker field goal try from 46 yards, that makes it a 51 yard try, in the slop. Tucker, of course nails it anyway cause that’s what he does. But sorry. You can’t be casual observer, rely on your coordinators type of head coach, but also play the I’m smarter than you card when someone drops probabilities in your earpiece that you blindly follow.

Play the scoreboard. Not the calculator. Football is a game of small sample sizes. Unlike the analytics used in baseball with 162 games a year, hundreds of plate appearances per player, thousands of pitches thrown by pitchers where you can draw some conclusions and have the long-term schedule to see things play out. You don’t have that in football.  You have that moment, right there, and that’s it.

A friend texted me after the game and said, “This team might be good if they weren’t so smart.” Truer words have never been spoken.

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Last Sunday’s game could have gone a little different if the offense could convert on short yardage. Extend drives, keep the ball away from big time playmakers, in one case literally put seven points on the board if they could move the ball six inches.

Ravens runners not named Lamar Jackson rushed for 36 yards on 16 carries last week. Take away Mark Andrews sneaky little 4th and 1 conversion motioning to under center for three yards, and it’s 15 for 33 yards. A measly 2.2 yards per carry.  In Week 1, 15 for 46 yards. Just a tick above 3.0 YPC. I understand they are missing J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, the former we hope returns to game action this week in New England. But Greg Roman is a run game specialist. Is he not? The Ravens had a history making season of running the ball before J.K. Dobbins was even drafted, did they not?

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I’ll come back to that. But let’s talk about Rashod Bateman, and how these things may connect. His skillset was something absolutely lacking in Roman’s offense when the Ravens drafted him in 2021. The ability to run routes so crisp that he gets open with ease and makes catch and runs more possible. Yards after catch seemed non-existent before. Bateman also possesses a great set of hands. He has all the characteristics of the person you put in the “X” role in the receiving group. The ability to win one-on-one matchups often. In his limited reps in 2021 he showed this off, and two games into the 2022 season he looks like a big play waiting to happen. Touchdown catches of 55 and 75 yards thus far.

Someone like Bateman plays a lot of snaps, right? The top receivers do. Cooper Kupp, Ja’Maar Chase, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and a host of others all have played over 95% of their teams snaps this season. I’m not saying Bateman is Cooper Kupp. But he’s our X, our #1. If you don’t count Mark Andrews.

Please explain to me why Rashod Bateman has only played 63% of the Ravens offensive snaps this season? A number that leads the receiver group by the way. Devin Duvernay, 52%. Demarcus Robinson, 43%. Tylan Wallace, 13%. James Proche, 9%. Wallace and Proche practically non-existent. Sure, tight end Mark Andrews is a major player and is on the field for 83% of the snaps.

Does Greg Roman not realize he has someone that can give you Davante Adams level production on his side of the ball? Does he not realize that Bateman’s presence on the field would certainly draw attention?

Let’s go back to the Ravens lack of production by the running backs. If I’m counting Patrick Ricard as a fullback, Greg Roman loves to run the ball out of “22” personnel. “2” backs, “2” tight ends. With Lamar Jackson under center and five O-lineman, 22 personnel means there is one wide receiver. But sometimes Roman will take it a step further and add a sixth O-lineman at the receiver’s expense.

This was one particular 3rd and short on the Ravens first drive. The play before Andrews converted the 4th and 1 with a clever design, I’ll give Roman credit for. Mike Davis in the backfield, Lamar Jackson under center. Not a wide receiver in sight. Roman invites all 11 Dolphins defenders within six yards of the line of scrimmage. Nine of them within two yards.

The numbers game that football is means that nine guys are hat on a hat in the trenches, and the two Dolphin linebackers can just find the ball. It’ll either be Davis or Jackson. Once Jackson hands it off, it’s now two on one. All those linebackers have to do is fill the gaps Davis could run through and one of them can make an easy play. That’s exactly what happens.

This wasn’t a case of the Ravens O-lineman not being good run blockers. Not a case of Davis being half the running back J.K. Dobbins is and not getting it done. This is just making the game way too hard on yourself. Don’t invite 11 guys in the box. Allowing the defense to win the numbers game too easily. Maybe Rashod Bateman should be on the field more than 63% of the time. Keep defenses honest. Make them think you could throw it on 3rd and 1. You get a corner covering Bateman, and probably a single high safety who might the cheat the run, but has to at least have his eyes in two places at once.

Along with Bateman, you know who else plays 63% of the snaps on this team. Patrick Ricard! I love the guy, but come on.

Here is the pivotal 4th and 1 the Ravens couldn’t convert while up by 14, with just under ten minutes to play in the game. First, the ball is on the 40-yard line. It’s a 57-yard field goal to take a three-score lead. Well within Justin Tucker range. Same setup as the 3^rd and 1 back in the 1st quarter. Just reversed. The side the motions man goes to is the side they run the ball to, just like they did on that 3rd and 1, and many other runs throughout the day.

Count the helmets to the left. The Ravens look good in the numbers game. But once they set Andrews in motion,  the defense knows where you are going. Even with Andrews added to the play side, more Dolphin defenders come to that side, and you’ve lost the numbers game. Even with Kevin Zeitler pulling, I count seven Dolphins to the left of Tyler Linderbaum, and six Ravens blockers.

End result. Jackson thinks there is a hole. Oops. Noot enough blockers, and the Dolphins are almost waiting for them to get there.

But when you win the numbers game, good things happen. When it looks like you could throw a pass, it could take defenders out of the equation if you decide to run. You might recognize this play. 21 Personnel. Two WRs on the field in Bateman and Duvernay. Mekari has already motioned from left to right, and in this angle you can see where the single high safety is. But the middle linebacker will signal to him to move up toward the line once Mekari goes in motion. He thinks it’s a run to that side, and he’s not wrong.

But count the helmets. Here is the mesh point as this is a read option executed by Lamar Jackson. Devin Duvernay is coming on a jet sweep and Lamar can give it, or pull it back and take it himself. Not including the corner who runs with Duvernay and in man coverage won’t leave him, I count five defenders, and the key being the pulling Ben Powers making for five Ravens blockers. The safety, #8, who moved up to the line has his eyes in the backfield and has a pretty clear shot at Duvernay if Jackson gives it off.

As the play develops, count the helmets again. 4-on-4. The safety who moved up to cheat the run, had this been a straight handoff to Davis, is now trying to change direction and make a play on Jackson. Ben Powers is having none of it. For Lamar Jackson it’s off to the races at this point.

Was this play more successful because you had two WRs on the field? You don’t have to matchup seven blockers on seven defenders on one side. The cornerback off screen isn’t even a factor on the play because he’s playing Bateman. If this wasn’t a read option on a jet sweep, and that safety cheats like he did, Jackson has the option to audible to a pass since someone is out there to run a route.

Bottom line, you have to win the numbers game. The more defenders you invite in the box, combined with not giving yourself any outs, the harder that becomes. It’s been suggested that the Ravens are going to try to shorten some of the verbiage in the play calling because too often are they coming to line with just a few second left on the play clock. I hope that is true, because the more time you have to look at the defense in front of you, the more time Jackson has to figure out the numbers. What is it now? What is it if I send a man in motion? What is it with a pulling guard?

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I’d say week 1 also comes with a much larger portion of unknowns.  We should know by now that what we see during the preseason shouldn’t be expected to carry over to the regular season. Prime example, Isaiah Likely. The rookie preseason stud dropped the first two passes thrown his way. Not the easiest balls to catch, but balls that need to be caught.

Those things combined are a formula for overreaction. And there has been a lot of that by the “Ravens didn’t win by enough” camp. Baltimore has gotten their season off on the right foot, since the W is the only thing that matters. All things being equal, 16 teams out there are wondering what had happened after they prepared so well this offseason.

With that, I’ll try to temper the overreactions and let’s just talk about some guys, their roles, and not talk about Lamar Jackson’s contract.

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Ronnie Stanley, J.K. Dobbins, Marcus Peters

I’ve seen a lot of overreactions pertaining to these guys, and their non-returns in week 1. I don’t think it’s anything serious. I believe rainy weather, and the field turf played a role in the coaches/doctors’ decisions to give these guys the week off. Stanley and Dobbins have been practicing, although Stanley has recently taken a step back in that regard. Marcus Peters was running the stairs at MetLife Stadium on Sunday morning. Maybe still building up to football strength, endurance. Rather give them extra time off early on so they are healthy for the meat and most important games on the schedule.

The Ravens replaced their field turf at M&T Bank Stadium with natural grass some time ago citing studies that there was a correlation between field turn and lower body, non-contact injuries. Other variables at play, but the Ravens lost two players for the season in last Sunday’s game, and they couldn’t have more opposite injury histories. Tackle, Ja’Wuan James, tore his Achilles for the second time. Cornerback, Kyle Fuller, tore his ACL after having not missed a single game in the last five seasons.

This was a situation they likely erred on the side of caution early in the season with this trio, besides the fact that they were all limited participants in practices during the week. J.K. Dobbins has been elevated to a full participant in practice this week, and Marcus Peters was a full participant on Thursday for the first time. Stanley, however, didn’t practice. All signs say we won’t see him on Sunday when the Dolphins come to town.

Patrick Mekari

The Raven Swiss army knife is put to the test right off the bat. He played 32 snaps at left tackle once James was carted off the field in week 1. With no timetable for Stanley, his versatility will be put to the test. Upon first looks last week, he seemed to play just fine in James’ place. Or maybe everything looks good compared to watching Alejandro Villanueva play turnstile for 17 weeks last year.

Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay

This pair, for at least the week, silenced the critics about the Ravens “horrid” (according to one outlet) receivers’ room. I’ve been beating the drum for Bateman since draft night that he’s a bona-fide “X” with his separation skills, and hands of course. That was on display. Guys like Duvernay, James Proche, Tylan Wallace, all have exceptional hands. It’s just a matter of getting them the ball, which is a tough task in Greg Roman’s offense. Duvernay seems to have carved out the most significant role outside of Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews. Double-D won’t double up on TDs every week. But the Ravens receivers’ room is full of guys who will pleasantly surprise when given the opportunity.

Brandon Stephens, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters (yes, again)

Stephens looked great in week 1 slotting into Peters’ role. He was targeted eight times, using quick closing speed a couple times to break up some passes, allowing just three catches. Unfortunately, a groin injury may have sidelined Stephens for week 2 with the Dolphins and an upgraded receiver’s room there with the offseason addition of Tyreek Hill. Marlon Humphrey also popped up on the injury report with a groin on Thursday. So the question becomes, is Marcus Peters ready to go? If not, our deep secondary already becomes real thin, if this trio is inactive this week.

Kyle Hamilton

In the event the Ravens are thin in the secondary this week, expect an uptick in the rookie’s snap count. He played 50% of the defensive snaps in week 1. As expected, he lines up all over the place. Once on the defensive line, 10 times in the box, 10 times as a nickel corner, and 21 times in the free safety spot. Also featured on special teams. Something to keep an eye on. Hamilton was targeted four times and allowed four catches. No real damage done as receivers averaged just 7.8 yards per reception on those. But well certainly want to see the star rookie break up some passes.

The secondary might be the position with the most eyes on them this week, as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle present a bigger threat than anyone the Jets are trotting out there.

Patrick Queen

The Ravens third year linebacker didn’t take a single play off in 84 snaps. A couple times he showed his athleticism that got him drafted by cutting off runners trying to get around the corner. Five of his seven tackles were run stops, helping get the defense off the field. He did his role in generating pressure on Joe Flacco with a hurry, two hits, and a sack. But there was no improvement on his coverage skills. Nine catches allowed in 11 attempts. It looks like they put Queen back in the “Mike” linebacker role, and that isn’t where he fits…still. Queen played at a Pro Bowl level last year on the weakside when Josh Bynes took over. Bynes played only 38% of the snaps last week.

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Joe Flacco! How ya doin?

Believe it or not, only 10 players on the Ravens roster were here when Joe Flacco last quarterbacked for Baltimore, and two, maybe three of them, won’t even suit up. Gus Edwards and Tyus Bowser on PUP, and Ronnie Stanley who is practicing, but it is unclear if he’s going to be ready in three days for game action.

The others, Lamar Jackson of course, Mark Andrews, Chuck Clark, Marlon Humphrey, Patrick Ricard, Nick Boyle, and Justin Tucker.

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I’m sure that pre-game there will be some hugs and handshakes between Flacco and his Ravens brethren. But most of the team, couldn’t care less if it was Joe Flacco or Joe Namath over there. These guys are professionals and once that ball kicks off, they will have one thing on their mind. Winning. But one way or another, Flacco’s familiarity with the Ravens, and vice versa, won’t be a factor in this Sunday’s game.

Other than going up against Marlon Humphrey and Chuck Clark in practice for one and a half seasons, four years ago, Flacco must prepare for a secondary of Marcus Peters, Marcus Williams, a rookie Kyle Hamilton with little to no pro film out there. Furthermore, a new defensive coordinator in Mike MacDonald making his NFL debut as a DC, so you hope he shows Flacco and the Jets things that Don Martindale didn’t leave on tape.

The Ravens must prepare accordingly as well. There is less tape on Flacco, after all he only made one start in 2021. Could he surprise the Ravens this Sunday? While I have a soft spot for our old friend and Super Bowl champion, no. He will not be sneaking up on anyone, even the Ravens. Joe Flacco is 2-11 since leaving Baltimore. That includes a 2-6 stint in Denver and going 0-5 in two years with the Jets. If you consider that he lost his last three starts as Raven, he is 2-14 in his last 16 games. Wins are a team stat, but he’s still average Joe posting a QBR of 50.8 in 2019, 50.3 in 2020, and 43.5 last year.

There is one interesting stat of note on the line for Joe Flacco. If he ruins our Sunday and beats the Ravens, he’ll be only the 8^th QB in history to beat 31 of the 32 NFL franchises. Tom Brady is the only one who has beat all 32. The other franchise Flacco has yet to beat, is the Seahawks, whom the Jets play in week 17. Well, isn’t that convenient.

As long as the calendar doesn’t turn over to January between now and Sunday, I think the Ravens will take care of business. After this Sunday, go get em’ Joe!

Oh. Hi, C.J. Mosley. Didn’t see you there. Good, to see, you.

[Awkward pause]

If he hasn’t improved in coverage since his Baltimore departure, Ravens tight ends should be salivating for this matchup.

I’m feeling nostalgic, so I’ll close with my top 10 favorite Joe Flacco…things.

10. January 2009 – 2016…ish? Is Joe Flacco elite? Never has a quarterback been so polarizing within their own fan base, right? And you’re damn right he is elite! Ravens do the unheard of. Beat Tom Brady in a playoff game in New England, in a 33-14 rout. Flacco was 4-10 for 34 yards and an INT on the day. Elite! Playoff road wins galore! Elite! Maybe a small part of me misses all the overreactions to all the nothing things that irked Flacco haters. “He’s not emotional enough, he doesn’t care!” Jonny Unitas wasn’t emotional either. “All he does is sit on the bench after a bad drive instead of talk to the coaches and teammates!” You mean like every other quarterback caught on camera for five seconds?

9. September 2008. His first game. Joe Flacco had a 38-yard touchdown run. Lamar Jackson, eat your heart out.

8. August 2009. Reebok commercial (viral video?) of Flacco knocking clay pigeons out of the sky with footballs. Fake or not, just fun.

7. April 2012. Having the guts to tell the world he thinks he’s the best quarterback in the league, amid contract extension talks. While the numbers say otherwise, Flacco got the last laugh as he hoisted the Lombardi Trophy and won Super Bowl MVP 10 months later. Soon after he inked the largest contract in NFL history.

6. December 2013. Snow game vs. the Vikings. The wildest final two minutes of any NFL game in history starts and ends with Joe Flacco touchdown passes. The game winner coming with four-seconds left.

5. November 2011. Joe Flacco finds Torrey Smith for the game winning touchdown in Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football. What I love about it is Torrey dropped a would-be touchdown pass right before this, and Joe went to him again. Flacco engineered a 92-yard touchdown drive in two minutes after the defense let a 10-point, 4th quarter lead evaporate.

4. October 2014. Joe Flacco, known for winning games but not fantasy points, throws five touchdown passes in the first 16:03 of game time against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. An NFL record for the fastest to do so. But…then he stopped. On pace for 16 TD passes after the first quarter, which would have broken the all-time record in a game by nine, he would finish the day with those five in a rout.

3. Never feeling like you didn’t have a chance in every single game he played. Sure, Flacco had one or two real stinkers each year. But you always felt like the Ravens had a shot to beat anyone when Flacco played. Such a relief after the Ravens had a decade of, bleh, at the quarterback position.

2. His overall toughness. During the 2009 season he played though a sprained ankle for a majority of the season. He always seemed to have something nagging. Ankle, back, a near decapitation by Kiko Alonso in 2017.  Flacco tore his ACL and MCL on the final drive of a 2015 game against the Rams. He hobbled through a couple more hand offs and ran up to spike the ball leading to a Justin Tucker game winning field goal. A football player, a warrior through and through.  

1. “January Joe”. All of it. Bottle that stuff up and sell it and you’ll be a billionaire. 5-0 in the wildcard round of the playoffs. 10-5 in the playoffs all time. Three of those five losses he played more than good enough to win, and other units failed the Ravens. I firmly believe Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff are the only reason Flacco isn’t a two-time champion. That 2011 Ravens team could have beat that garbage Giants team that won the worst Super Bowl I’ve ever seen. 2012, Mile High Miracle. Super Bowl champ, Super Bowl MVP. A postseason of efficiency and performance only matched by Joe Montana.

The NFL had a 16 year stretch where only Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger represented the AFC in the Super Bowl. The only Super Bowl in the middle of that time frame without a member of that trio…You know. Joe Flacco always ended up in good company.

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Let me begin by saying that I am in no way implying that this is what Lamar Jackson is seeking from the Ravens. There have been a ton of rumors and fake news about these very discussions, and I’m not trying to be in that camp. This is simply an exercise, nothing more. A few more days, but no more than a week remains for the two sides to reach an agreement on a contract extension before Jackson’s self-imposed week 1 deadline. At that point contract talks probably go on hold, and the discussion becomes about options in 2023. Franchise tag and would he accept it? Or a brand-new contract.

Discuss your thoughts on this topic on our message board.

In recent months since Deshaun Watson signed a fully guaranteed contract with the Browns worth $230M over five years, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson have signed deals that were not, fully guaranteed. Watson is only the third Quarterback to receive such a deal. Before Watson was traded to Cleveland, Aaron Rodgers coming off his second straight MVP season with a franchise that doesn’t seem interested in building around him, basically held all the leverage and got a fully guaranteed extension. Kirk Cousins is now on his 3^rd fully guaranteed contract or extension.

Is Watson’s deal game changing? Probably not. He’s not the first guy to get one. He won’t be the last. Two good quarterbacks did not get fully guaranteed deals considering three quarterbacks did. So, I don’t feel like some precedent has been set if in fact this is the hang up in the negotiations between the Ravens and Jackson.

But let’s not get so dismissive of the Watson deal as a model for a minute, frankly because Jackson didn’t sexually assault 24 (or more) women. Consensus is the Browns are doing Browns things, and I don’t disagree given the circumstances. Between the lines Watson is a fine player. He’s not Lamar Jackson though. Given the time that he hasn’t played, he’s certainly been leapfrogged in the conference by Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and certainly behind AFC newcomer Russell Wilson. Watson is probably middle of the pack in the AFC as far as talent goes, and yes, that makes the Browns look foolish. But as a model, is it for a better player?

Let’s entertain the idea of what it could look like for Jackson. Is there a right way to do it?

First things first, assume a deal doesn’t come out of the blue this week, Jackson has another great season, and this is for 2023, avoiding the franchise tag.

Next, how much? Jackson would earn more than Watson. He’s a better player, and not a scumbag. How much more? How about a nice round number of $250M. $20M more than Watson. How long? Watson’s deal for five years goes through his age 31 season. Lamar Jackson will be 26 in his 2023 season. Six seasons would take him through age 31 and would be able to be a free agent entering 2029 if he played it out.

How much of a signing bonus? Well, the more of bonus you give up front, the lower the base salaries can be early on. Dak Prescott has the highest signing bonus in the game at $66M. Let’s top that at $75M.

So, let’s look at what 6/$250M, $75M up front, 100% guaranteed could look like.

The $23M cap hit in 23’ is about equal to his 22’ cap hit. Jackson will have also earned $75M for signing on the dotted line, $3,000,000 for being on the roster when the new league year begins. Before he takes a snap, Jackson’s bank account is $78M richer. Make it $83M at seasons end when his base salary/game checks come in.

After 2024 he will have pocketed another $18M, taking his two-year earnings up to $101M. Roughly $10M more than Watson will take home in that time frame. And $50.5M per year for those first two years. Contracts overall, Aaron Rodgers’ average annual value is $50.1M, Russell Wilson’s extension takes him to $49M AAV, and Jackson’s best comparison as a peer, Kyler Murray earns $46.1M AAV.  

But if we are talking the entire length of a deal, one potential hang up could be the average annual value of the deal which is roughly $41.6M. That would be good for 7^th among his peers. But some of his peers are not making $101M in two seasons, nor would have $250M coming to them, no matter what. Kyler Murray won’t have taken home $100M+ until 2025 ($105.2M). He is only guaranteed to take home $103.3M of his deal. If things go sideways in a hurry, the Cardinals can easily cut bait entering 2026 with a modest $20.2M dead money cap hit.

As we get farther into the deal, we must estimate what the salary cap could be, and make sure that Jackson wouldn’t be taking up so much of the cap that it is detrimental to the team. I believe this is also where people also get hung up on the idea that a fully guaranteed contract is a losing bet because it’s so much money, you can’t afford to put a decent team around them.

The 2022 salary cap is $208.2M. Post pandemic, the cap will continue to rise. Based on rises over the years, the lowest rate it would probably rise is about 6%. Meaning the 2023 cap would increase $12.5M to $220.7M. It would then go up another $13.2M to $233.9M in 2024.

Let’s stop there for a second.

In 2022, Lamar Jackson will account for 11.2% of the team’s salary cap. Saying you can’t build a team around him for at least two more years is just not true. They have built a really great team around him at this percentage. We’ll get to the other years shortly.

Using estimated numbers, Aaron Rodgers is accounting for 13.2%, 14.1%, then 15.9% of the Packers cap. Kyler Murray lower in the beginning, but 20.3% in 2024. Deshaun Watson is cheap in 2022, but could account for 24.4% in 2023, and 21.5% in 2024. Kirk Cousins third fully guaranteed extension has him accounting for 14.9% in 2022, and 16.1% in 2023. By these measures, pretty team friendly for the Ravens. Will it stay that way?

Let’s continue down the path at 6% cap growth through 2028.

How about that? If the salary cap increases at just a modest rate, Lamar Jackson never accounts for more than 20% of it under this structure. He also accounts for less of it as he gets older which allows for room to add supplemental pieces. But could the salary cap increases be even larger, and make the cap hits here even more reasonable?

Jason Fitzgerald who founded “Over the Cap” thinks so. In this article from 2021, he points out by looking at the publicly owned Green Bay Packers financial records, there was a spike in the salary cap when there was a spike in the revenue in 2015. The year the then new TV contracts kicked in. Revenue growth was 4.3% in 2014, up to 11.4% in 2015. That equated to a 7.7% cap increase in 2015, and an 8.4% hike in 2016, as some of that 11.4% growth goes to the players’ salaries.

2023 is big year as Sunday Ticket will be purchased by likely Amazon or Apple for billions of dollars. Further, Fitzgerald suggests that as we climb out of the pandemic, 2023 might still see part of that impact. But 2024 he expects a spike. Fully recovered from the pandemic, TV revenue growth, he believed that instead of around $10M per year growth, it might be more like $17M a year. He estimates around a $260M salary cap in 2024, and a $300M cap in 2027.

So let us play this out at $17M increases.

Slightly better for sure. Even this is a little modest. If Fitzgerald is right and the cap takes a big hike over the next couple years to hit $260M in 2024, that would mean Jackson would account for only 12.7% of the cap that year. If it’s indeed up to $300M in 2027, that’s still only 16.3% he’d account for.

So, you be the judge. Go back to the title question. If…If, a fully guaranteed deal is what Jackson is seeking, higher than that of scumbag Deshaun Watson, is this structure and amount actually as bad as it sounds? Follow up question. Is it possible that in 2026, 2027, 2028, that a $49M cap hit would be maybe somewhere near the bottom half of the top ten in the league? Cap hits of $58M+ could be commonplace while the Ravens and Jackson are on the books for almost $10M less.

All that is left to wrap your head around is the risk. If it came down to it, you aren’t getting out of the deal until the final year and spreading out $49M in dead money over two years, if you really, really, had to get out. Can you live with Lamar Jackson for at least 5 more years? If you can’t, then you wouldn’t be seriously looking to extend him no matter what structure you use. Jackson would be wise to turn down any deal that the Ravens could cut bait from in three to four years with a manageable dead money hit. He’s earned more than that.

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Baltimore’s draft has been lauded as one of the best in the league by many outlets. Let’s look at the updated depth chart (not including UDFAs) and break down the improvements, the holes that still exist, who makes immediate impact, and more.

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Offense

Quarterback: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley

No additions here. I wouldn’t have minded seeing one of those fourth-round picks go to a QB to challenge Huntley for the backup spot. Instead, it will probably be another UDFA. I don’t think Huntley is the answer should Jackson miss significant time. That much was evident last season as he’s limited with his arm, and at times, football IQ. Maybe a veteran game manager could be added before camp. The Bears just released Nick Foles for example, but he might cost too much Could the Ravens be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 27^th team he’s played for? (Slight exaggeration)

Running backs: J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Tyler Badie, Nate McCrary, Ty’Son Williams

Tyler Badie (BAY-dee) was taken with the Ravens final pick in the draft in round six. The three guys ahead of him are all returning from season ending injuries before the 2021 season even started. They like Hill on special teams. As a sixth-round pick and a rookie, Badie will have to prove to coach Harbaugh that he too can play on special teams, which is something McCrary and Williams did not make an impact on last year. Harbaugh was vocal last year about that being the way to dress for a game as the third or fourth RB on the depth chart on his team. Don’t expect him to cut in the workload Dobbins and Edwards should get.

Fullback: Patrick Ricard, Ben Mason

Moving on…

Offensive line

Starters: Ronnie Stanley (LT), Ben Powers (LG), Tyler Linderbaum (C), Kevin Zeitler (RG), Morgan Moses (RT)

Backups: Patrick Mekari (T/G/C), Ben Cleveland (LG), Daniel Faalele (RT), Ja’Wuan James (RT), Trystan Colon (C), Tyre Phillips, (RG/RT), James Murray (C), Jaryd Jones-Smtih (T)

I couldn’t be happier with the Linderbaum pick. Before the draft I wanted him at #14. To get a top-five player at #14 in Kyle Hamilton, then Linderbaum who steps right into the starting center role vacated by Bradley Bozeman at #25. I slept easy that night. Over 2300 career snaps at Iowa with just two sacks allowed. Projected as an All-Pro talent, he isn’t competing with anyone.

In the fourth round the Ravens addressed a position with plenty of question marks because of health, tackle. Ronnie Stanley and Ja’Wuan James haven’t played in quite some time. Morgan Moses was signed, but I worry about his pressure allowed rate being close to the abysmal Alejandro Villanueva experiment last year. Daniel Faalele (FAH-ah-LAY-lay) comes in with question marks of his own at a whopping 6’8”, 384 lbs. Pushing 400 lbs, is not ideal, but if he can move at that weight, what kind of force could he be? I have to see Faalele get a goal line carry at some time this year at least.

How I have the backups listed is how I have them in pecking order on the depth chart. James is probably on the bubble, with no room for the others. Mekari being able to play everywhere on the line is such a valuable asset.

Tight ends: Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle, Charlie Kolar, Isaiah Likely, Josh Oliver, Tony Poljian

I don’t think another team puts the stock into their tight ends the Ravens do. I don’t think they’ll carry more than four tight ends, which numbers the days for Oliver and Poljian. But if the Ravens use Isaiah Likely more in a wide receiver’s role, which that room is two bodies short with the Marquise Brown trade, but more fittingly, Miles Boykins release. If Likely joins that group in Boykins role as a run blocking WR who can catch, maybe Oliver and Poljian battle for a potential final spot in the TE room. Special teams might where we see Kolar and Likely in year one.

Wide receivers: Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay, James Proche, Tylan Wallace, Binjimen Victor, Jaylon Moore.

No additions here. Big question is, will Hollywood Brown be missed? I don’t think the Ravens are really missing anything, considering how they used Brown. He had big play ability. He’s got a dozen or more highlight reel long balls, but when they turned him into a quick pass in the flat receiver, he floundered. That’s just not his skill set. I think if thats what they want to do more of, that is something Duvernay can excel in. Bateman is well rounded at everything and I’m excited for him to be the focal point outside of Mark Andrews. Duvernay has the speed to get behind a defense. Proche and Wallace in limited looks have shown the ability to make tough grabs, be it over the middle bracing for a hit, or on the sideline where you must tap the toes to complete the catch. Maybe Isaiah Likely joins this group.

I might be in the minority; I don’t think the Ravens need to go outside the organization and add anyone. Why waste the cap space on another halfhearted veteran? Besides, running the ball and 2 and 3 TE sets are the bread and butter here.

Defense

Defensive line

Ends: Calais Campbell, Derek Wolfe, Justin Madubuike, Broderick Washington

Nose: Michael Pierce, Travis Jones, Isaiah Mack, Xavier Kelly, Khalil McKenzie, Aaron Crawford

Two months ago, I thought the Ravens would go very heavy on DTs in the draft. Instead, they were able to bring back Calais Campbell for another year. A very important person on and off the field. Great mentor for the youth on this team. Then a reunion with Michael Pierce. After drafting Travis Jones in round three, they look pretty set for whichever defensive fronts they want to put out this season. Isaiah Mack flashed a little in limited time in 2021. He has a chance to be on this squad as well.

Inside linebackers: Josh Bynes, Patrick Queen, Malik Harrison, Kristian Welch.

No additions through the draft and that surprises me a little bit. Bynes was a must have to bring back on a budget to play on the strong side as no one else here can do so. How important was it to draft two TEs, two corners when the versatile Kyle Hamilton can maybe take one of those places? Was it more important to draft a punter in the fourth round than to throw another dart here? Queen had a Pro Bowl caliber second half of 2021 when he moved to the weak side. But is Bynes going to keep being available for all these cheap one year deals?

Outside linebackers: Odafe Oweh, Tyus Bowser, Daelin Hayes, Jaylon Ferguson, David Ojabo

David Ojabo tore his Achilles at Michigan’s pro day. A top-20 prospect, the Ravens grabbed him at #45 in the second round to reunite with his Michigan, now Ravens Defensive Coordinator, Mike MacDonald. Ojabo likely doesn’t factor in this year which is good news for Jaylon Ferguson who might have one last shot to stick around. I think a veteran is added at some point to round out this group. Expect Oweh to take big strides in year two. Bowesr is great off the ball, and it’s very thin here otherwise. Another position where I wonder if it was necessary to double up at tight end, cornerback, without really addressing this one.

Cornerbacks: Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Iman Marshall, Jalyn Armour-Davis, Robert Jackson, Damarion Williams, Kevin Tolliver, Kevon Seymour.

I haven’t heard official word, but so far, no Jimmy Smith news about a return. He said at the end of last year it was the Ravens or retirement. He has no interest playing anywhere else. Do the Ravens want him back? It’s a position thin on depth once you are past Marlo and Peters. That’s why they drafted Armour-Davis and Williams. We’ll wonder if Iman Marshall can stay healthy for once. He was a fourth-round pick in 2019. At least with defensive backs, it’s more special teams depth.

Safeties

Strong: Chuck Clark, Tony Jefferson, Geno Stone

Free: Marcus Williams, Brandon Stephens, Ar’Darius Washington

Anywhere: Kyle Hamilton

I’m not sure a draft pick has come with such high expectations since maybe Ronnie Stanley when the Ravens selected him sixth overall. Kyle Hamilton was a consensus top-five player in the draft and kept slipping down the board, right into the Ravens laps. No mock drafts had him coming here because he wasn’t on anyone’s board at 14. Hamilton is versatile, but I don’t expect him to unseat Chuck Clark who wears the green dot on the defense. But maybe we see a lot more cover-3. Maybe Hamilton plays plenty of nickel since at 6’4” he can match up with receiving tight ends and such.

Special Teams: Justin Tucker (K), Sam Koch (P), Jordan Stout (P), Nick Moore (LS)

Might have been a bit of a surprise to see the Ravens take a punter while Sam Koch is still on the team. While he’s now 40, the end is near, but I thought that might be on his terms. Doubt it’s much of a competition when you read about Stout’s ability, and the youth, and the cap savings of over $2M if Koch is cut or retires. We’ll just have to see how this plays out. It’s not impossible for the Ravens to redshirt Stout and give Koch one last season. To make them both go through camp though, then cut Koch loose wouldn’t be prudent, in my opinion.

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