Baltimore Orioles Roundtable Discussion

The Baltimore Orioles are 38-73 entering play tonight, and counting down the remaining games in their 2021 schedule to mercifully end this season.

When this season officially ends October 3rd in Toronto, all attention will turn to what comes next and preparation for Year 4 of the Mike Elias regime here in Baltimore.

To discuss where the Orioles are now, and where they are going; we posed some questions to some of our fellow Baltimore Sports and Life (BSL) contributors.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

BSL Question 1) The Orioles Minor League system has improved during Elias’ tenure as GM.  There has been an emphasis on International Scouting and investment (particularly within the Dominican Republic) the Orioles have avoided for decades. We’ve seen additional investments in Baseball Operations as a whole, particularly Analytics and Player Development.  The ML team has minimal long-term obligations, and presumably plenty of payroll flexibility.  There is a growing core of players internally, who could comprise some role on the next quality Baltimore team. Would you recommend that this is the off-season, the Orioles Front Office start to make tangible investments in external additions (FA or trade) to augment what exists? 

Matt Kory: I’d say a qualified yes. If they do indeed have the payroll flexibility and if there is a player or players who both A) fit the long term vision of the roster, and B) are young enough to stay in their prime through the time when the Orioles see themselves competing.

Bob Phelan: I wouldn’t be opposed to that happening and think it would certainly speed up the rebuild a bit I just don’t see this offseason as the time that the front office pulls the trigger on that. They may kick the tires on a guy like Carlos Correa but I think the cost will be higher than they are willing to pay.  

Dr. Stephen Loftus: I don’t view the Orioles as reaching that +.500/sneak into the WC stage until 2023 at the earliest. Because of that, I don’t think they should make a big move. The exception may be at SS, where the free agent pool is deep. Depending on your taste for risk/spending there are many routes to go. Ultimately, I don’t they’ll be players at the top-end of the pool (Correa, Seager, Story), but I could see them maybe playing for the next group (Semien, Baez, Crawford).

Chris Stoner: I absolutely believe the Orioles need to be adding to their roster with players of significance this off-season, and it doesn’t matter if they aren’t able to sniff contention until ’23. Player Development is often not linear, and the same can be said for Teams; but I think it would be beneficial to have a waive of growth in ’22, and add the remaining needed pieces going into ’23.

One of the advantages of building as the Orioles have been building, is that they have minimal payroll obligations going forward. That creates opportunity to add external pieces, in-conjunction with the many home-grown pieces who are cost-controlled for years going forward.

I know the MASN dispute is on-going and figures to end with the Orioles having to pay out some significant money to the Nationals. I know the Orioles took significant hits to their Season Ticket holders, Corporate Sponsors, Suite Sales, and Individual Game Tickets with the arrival of the Nationals.

But I also know that:

– In April 2020 FanGraphs Estimated the Orioles local TV Revenue at $54M.

– In centralized money the Orioles receive from National TV deals, etc, it’s estimated the Orioles receive $91M.  

– With the sale of BAM Tech, each team received a one time pay day of $50-$68M…. and MLB will continue to receive 15% annually, divided among the teams, and this counted as outside of baseball related revenues. I don’t know how much the Orioles can expect from BAM Tech this year.

– 48% of local revenue is subject to revenue sharing, and distributed equally among all 30 teams. Each team receives 3.3% of the sum as a result, with each team generating an estimated $118M from that pot. I believe (but don’t definitively know) that means 48% of their estimated local TV revenue + other revenue streams is subject to revenue sharing, and $118M comes back to the Orioles.

My point is payroll obligations are minimal, and the Orioles are still generating money. It’s time for some of those revenues to be invested into the Major League product. By the way, they’ve spent money before. They spent about $165M in payroll in 2017, which equates to about $183M after inflation today.

BSL: If you said yes to #1…  

1a) It is my opinion that for the Orioles to be a .500 +/- team in ’22, they need to add 2 starting pitchers, 2 relief pitchers, and 1 AS caliber player at SS or 3rd.  Something like this. Do I think the Orioles are signing 6 FA’s?  No…  but I do think it’s time to go out and spend beyond signings on the fringe of the roster. Who would you suggest the Orioles target this Winter?  

Kory: If you’re going to spend, Carlos Correa is a great way to spend. He’ll be 27 next season so you’re getting his late 20s, prime seasons, in his next contract, and he’s an above average defender at a premium position so even if his bat declines he’s still valuable. Same thing, as well, if his fielding declines and his bat holds on, you can move him to third or potentially even second base. 

Stoner: My colleagues here mention a number of viable options ranging from short-term deals to significant signings. Go get one of the SS’s or Bryant, and you have an AS on that side of the field, and you don’t need to count on both Westburg and Henderson. I’m not going to ask for Scherzer, but can I dream about Stroman? If Stroman is too much of an investment, can I get Alex Wood? You have to land at-least 1 legitimate ML starter this off-season. Another option would be trying to poach David Price from the Dodgers. Price is under control through ’22, and will make $32M next year. It’s a big number, but it’s also just 1 year. Something like Wood, Davies, A. Bradley, and Bryant would make for a fun Winter, and likely a much improved product next Summer.

BSL: If you said no to #1…  

1b) If you feel the time is not right to make larger external additions; what do you think the Orioles should be looking to accomplish in ’22?  Additional evaluation of existing internal options? Additions on short-term 1-2 year contracts, with minimal obligations? 

Zach Spedden: I think the Orioles are still another year from being a realistic contender for a major free agent, because I don’t see a top-tier player signing when most of their core is still in the minors. However, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t make some additions this offseason. The rotation will need help, and it’s possible that reinforcements will be needed at second and third. Additionally, I would like to see them sign a defensive-minded veteran that could start at catcher before moving into a backup role when Adley Rutschman arrives. The position has been a challenge for the Orioles this year and, while Rutschman is the long-term solution, it doesn’t hurt to have a veteran that can show him the ropes next season and at least provide solid defense on days where Rutschman is not behind the plate.

Outside of that, the biggest priority must be deciding on Trey Mancini’s future in Baltimore. Regardless of whether you believe he should be extended or traded, the worst decision the Orioles can make is to go into the regular season with him still on the roster without an extension being imminent. If they do that, they’re setting themselves up for a lesser return at the trade deadline.  

Phelan: I could see the Orioles trying to sign guys like 3B Kyle Seager, RHP Zach Davies, and/or RHP Michael Pineda to 1 or 2 year deals. It would be a step up from the Freddy Galvis and Maikel Franco’s of the world but still small commitments that could be moved prior to the trade deadline if the opportunity is there.

Loftus: What I’d like to really see this offseason is the team signing free agents who have an actual chance at being worth value later in the season, particularly in the pitching staff. Rather than going for MILB contracts, minimum salaries, and $1M guys, I’d like to see $4-5M lottery tickets. Other goals for 2022 include evaluating their young players and cutting bait where appropriate. If Santander hasn’t made appreciable steps forward or can’t stay healthy, maybe next year is the time to trade him.

Nick Stevens: While I completely understand the frustrations that have been boiling over this year and have become so frustrated myself that I haven’t watched a full major league game since late April, I don’t think this winter is when the Orioles “flip the switch” and start bringing in big free agents. However, the front office must bring in competent talent this offseason to help raise the floor a bit because we will see Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Michael Baumann, and a few more notable prospects in the majors next season and these young players are bringing a brand new culture with them. They will struggle, even Rutschman, but they need to be surrounded by veterans who give the team a chance to win most nights. We will have a much better idea of what to expect from younger players like Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and others after the 2022 season. At that point, the Orioles can start filling the gaps with a prized free agent or two and start dealing from their pool of prospect talent to help fill those gaps.

BSL Question 2) One reason I think the Orioles should be looking to add players of significance this Winter, is that they did not trade Mancini at the deadline. Presumably they will be working on an extension. But if you didn’t trade Mancini now (when he had 1.5 years left on his contract, and would fetch the most he was going to fetch); isn’t that an indication the Orioles believe he can part of the next quality Orioles team? 

Kory: Either that or they didn’t get an offer commensurate with what the team feels his value is. Now, his value in trade has to be more than the draft pick the team would receive after he turns down a qualifying offer, but that’s not a huge amount. The team could still deal him this off-season if they can’t work something out long term as well, but presumably they have a plan and an idea of what he’s looking for in a long term contract, so you’d think their failure to even really shop him during the deadline would mean he’s likely going to be in Baltimore long(er) term. 

Spedden: While I think an extension is possible, I don’t believe that their decision to not move him at the deadline makes it a guarantee. Maybe they genuinely wanted Mancini to finish the season in their uniform or wanted to avoid the backlash they would inevitably receive for trading him just months into his first season back from colon cancer. It’s also possible that there wasn’t much of a market at the deadline, and that Mancini can get the Orioles more in return with a strong finish to the season.

That said, there’s still the chance that Mancini is extended—especially if the Orioles believe they can turn things around over the next two seasons. If that were the case, their window of competitiveness would open while Mancini is still in his prime and has a few years of team control remaining. I think four years (effectively covering 2022 and extending him for the next three seasons) would be a reasonable contract length.

Phelan: I still don’t see the Orioles committing to Mancini long term unless it is on a very team friendly deal. I think they wanted to keep him for all of 2021 because they feel like the trade offers won’t be much different when they decide to move him and this gives him a chance to establish a full season’s worth of value as a bench mark coming off of 2020. If they do extend him I don’t think it will be for more than three years.

Loftus:  Not necessarily. The market may not have been there for him this year. While Mancini has been a great Oriole and his comeback is one of the stories of the year, he is R/R 1B with average fielding and average to slightly-above-average offensively (For 1B). That’s going to be a tough market to extract value, particularly since the Red Sox (Who probably had the biggest 1B hole) were somewhat tight to the CB Tax. I think they are going to work toward an extension, but I also believe Mancini is worth more to the Orioles than he is to other teams.

Stevens: I’m still not sold on the idea that Trey Mancini sticks around, as much as I hope he does. But if the Orioles do plan on extending him he can certainly be an asset on a winning Orioles team. He also has a lot more than another year or two of good baseball left so the Orioles can extend Mancini and look to him as a veteran leader of a young clubhouse while still being patient with top prospects and waiting another year to push the chips in and really go for it.

Stoner: I’ll be shocked if the Orioles and Mancini don’t reach a deal this Winter. Mancini is a good-not-great player who is loved locally, and has made clear he wants to be here. He isn’t going to command more in a trade this Winter, then he would have at the deadline. They didn’t trade him, I’ll assume it’s because they want him around. I will say that if the Orioles have zero desire in investing in the ML roster now, they absolutely should have traded Mancini at the deadline. There are multiple ways to build and operate (Tampa) but if you are going to emulate what the Rays do, then operate like the Rays.

BSL Question 3) Is rebuilding necessary? What do you think teams gain by rebuilding in the fashion the Orioles are?  Some prior discussion here.  My biggest arguments for a rebuild in this fashion are that you gain payroll flexibility, and an extended time to evaluate internal talent. The ability to give opportunities and see if someone takes advantage (Mullins). What do you think? 

Kory: It depends on the situation and the market. The Orioles probably aren’t going to be able to run a massive payroll for more than a few seasons in a row given their market. That means they will need some good young players (read: cheap) to off-set any big money players. It’ll be very difficult for the O’s to build a team around free agents, so that means they need to be able to draft, develop, and trade players for value. They don’t have to be the Rays, but they have to be some smaller version of the Rays.  

Spedden: In the case of the Orioles, the rebuild was absolutely necessary. Not only did they need to revamp what had become one of the worst farm systems in the game by 2018, but they also had to completely shift the organization’s philosophy in areas like analytics and international free agency. Add to the struggles that the Orioles had in 2017 and 2018, and it’s apparent that a long-term rebuild was needed.

Phelan: Yes, especially in a position the Orioles were in when Mike Elias came on. The Orioles had a bottom tier farm system, poor track record for player development, and literally zero presence in the international market. They had to basically start from scratch. The argument could be made that more effort could be put into the major league product to give fans a better viewing experience while it is going on but that doesn’t change the fact that rebuilding is necessary. It just depends on the project how much time it will take to do so.

Loftus:  I’ll try to keep this short, as I can go off on this for a while. At some point, rebuilding is necessary unless you have excellent talent identification (Rays), excellent finances (Yankees), or both (Dodgers). The “tanking” method of rebuilding allows teams to focus on young talent. Losses will pile up resulting in higher draft picks, which allows teams to extend the “non-competitive” time in the rebuild. All this allows for teams to suppress player salaries significantly, with little incentive to compete during this time. Honestly, the “tanking” method of rebuilding is a problem for Major League Baseball, something they need to address in the next CBA. Whether they overhaul the draft/talent acquisition process (Definitely should be done), figure out some combination of salary cap/floor (Would be nice, but good luck), etc., I don’t know. But it needs to be addressed. However, I’ll not begrudge the Orioles’ Front Office for pursuing this path because it has generally been shown to be the most effective method of going from stagnating team to contender, though not infallible.

Stevens: The Orioles were in a unique position when this rebuild started. There was no analytics department, there was no international presence, to the point where it was a running joke among international scouts about “full attendance” being at 29 teams because they knew the Orioles weren’t sending anybody, and the farm system featured virtually nothing of note. We’ve now seen the building blocks of sustained success in Baltimore thanks to massive investments in international scouting, trading away veteran pieces at peak value for quality prospects, and developing and sticking to a consistent draft strategy. There’s now a flow of prospects set to reach the majors year after year, with each group consisting of a star prospect, a handful of potential impact guys, and a group of flyers who may or may not stick around, but the constant flow of talent is now there and will continue to be replenished. The major league product didn’t have to suffer this much but drastic measures were necessary to create long-term success.

Stoner: I like Matt’s initial line above, it depends on the situation and the market. I fully believe it was in the Orioles best interest to build in this fashion. Build your internal infrastructure. Evaluate what you have internally. Reduce all obligations going forward. Invest in player development, scouting, International efforts where you’ve never done anything, analytics. Build a group of guys who are cost-controlled, and then augment around them.

BSL Question 4) Obviously every prospect the Orioles have, isn’t going to reach their ceilings.  Plenty will flame out, and provide nothing. But some players don’t have to hit their respective ceilings to contribute. Overall, I think the Oriole fanbase should be excited by the notion of having a growing pool of players who have the ability to contribute in some capacity.  Agree? Disagree? 

Kory: Absolutely. But, and this is difficult or can be to sell to fans, for a team to be successful they’re going to have to trade prospects sometimes. Obviously nobody is talking about trading Grayson Rodriguez or Adley Rutschman but there may be times in the future when prospects of that caliber have to be dealt. That’s the only danger, that fans get attached to prospects. But if that’s the issue, then it probably means the O’s just made a big addition to a contending club, so not necessarily the worst problem to have. 

Spedden: Agree. Not every player will reach their ceilings, but that doesn’t mean they won’t contribute in some form. Some might emerge as solid bench or bullpen options, others might give you just enough in the minors to have trade value when the time comes to start adding to the major-league roster. Just as an example, take a position like second base, which was one of the weakest in the farm system up until about mid-2020. Now, the organization has players like Terrin Vavra, Jahmai Jones, Connor Norby and possibly Jordan Westburg (if they decide to try him there at some point) that have reasonably high floors with a lot of potential. We shouldn’t expect all of them to become everyday second basemen, but the fact that one could do that while one or two others become quality major-league role players is an advantage that the Orioles haven’t had in a long time. 

Phelan: Absolutely agree. Mike Elias and company have raised the floor of the system to such an extent that there will soon be next to no organizational filler to be found. The difference in the depth from 2018 to now is staggering. Once you got past the top 15 or so on the 2018 lists you had to squint to try and find anyone that had real upside. You can go well past our top 50 prospect list and still find players with the tools to help a major league team in one way or another. The higher the floor, the deeper the farm system, the more likely quality players are likely to emerge and offset the inevitable busts and disappointments.

Loftus: Honestly, this should be the most exciting thing in the organization. Whether you agree or disagree about how the talent was acquired, you can’t disagree that it’s improved talent. And it’s always fun to dream on the potential of future talent.

Stevens: Orioles fans should be extremely excited about the depth of talent in the minor leagues. The organization isn’t hitching their wagon to just one top pitching prospect or one big hitting prospect. There’s at least one high-profile, potential All-Star prospect at pretty much every position right now with a handful of guys slotting in behind them who profile as potential starters, or at least valuable utility options who can play multiple positions. Behind them is a long list of wildcards and flyers who have a loud tool or two and could become something with the right development plan and a bit of luck. For example, If Gunnar Henderson doesn’t work out, there’s Jordan Westburg to look to. Perhaps it’s Joey Ortiz who takes over as the future shortstop? None of these guys panning out? How about Maikol Hernandez? The vast majority of these prospects in the system now will fail, as is the case in every organization, but the depth continues to grow and the Orioles now have more options than they’ve had in many, many years.

Stoner: The talent and depth of the organization continues to improve. With increased depth, you’ll be able to go outside the organization, and utilize that depth to target external additions where you are relatively weak. You’d love to have every prospect reach their ultimate ceiling, but that doesn’t happen. But you’ve got a growing list of guys where you should get some level of positive contribution.

BSL Question 5) Akin and Kremer’s ML seasons were big disappointments, but I haven’t written them off as possible contributors. Same with Lowther who was up and down, and never got in a groove, and now has missed some time. Between those 3, and Baumann, Wells, Zimmermann, Bradish, Smith, Rom, Knight; I think they’ve got a group of guys who could potentially help the roster in the near-term. Don’t think most of those guys have even 3rd starter type ceiling (maybe Baumann? maybe Bradish? maybe Rom?); but that’s okay. You can still help a roster if you get league average 4ths and 5ths and pen options. What do you think the O’s have with that group? Who interests you the most?  

Kory: I think that group is mostly a few bottom of the rotation starters, some middle relievers, and some trade chips and/or Quad-A players. The more to the left of that sentence, the better, obviously, but the main point there is, while that’s a fine group of players to have, they’re not likely going to be able to do more than fill out the fringes of a contender’s pitching staff. 
As for my favorite, Baumann is a pretty easy answer. I think he’s the guy who, through his fastball and the sheer number of pitches he possesses, might be able to fill out a rotation spot with a good level of competence. He’s not young (he’ll be 26 next season, old for a prospect) but he’s got some potential.  

Spedden: The Orioles at least have depth with that group, which is never a bad thing. Baumann and Bradish are the most interesting for me, because I think either or both could be a quality mid-rotation starter or a dominant late-inning reliever, depending on their health and development. However, the fact that you’ve got several lefties in the mix is never a bad thing, and I’m more hopeful about Blaine Knight becoming at least a reliever because of the strides he’s making with his command.

Kremer and Akin clearly need to rebound, but I won’t write them off entirely. Lowther has struggled this year. However, I really hope that he’s given another chance in 2022, hopefully when he’s healthy and is actually allowed sufficient time to settle into a role at Triple-A before getting an extended test in the majors.

Phelan: I believe Bradish and Baumann could develop into mid-rotation starters but worst case they should back end of the rotation guys or high leverage relievers. Akin, Wells, Lowther, and Zimmermann profile as relievers to me. I think Kremer can still be something but he needs to go back to the drawing board over the offseason or think about moving to the bullpen as well. Blaine Knight can be a solid reliever with his mid-90’s fastball and tight slider, same goes for Cody Sedlock as long as he keeps the command he has found of late. Rom, Smith, Brnovich, Peek, Stallings, etc have a chance to stick as starters but should be able to be good relievers if not. This goes to the depth talked about on the previous question. Some will break through and some will disappoint. Hopefully with the depth established you are able to fill out a major league pitching staff in a couple years.

Loftus: Most of these guys are at absolute best back-end starters/swingmen on a playoff team. Maybe openers/bulk guys if the Orioles were willing to try that strategy. If they’re occupying the 3rd spot in a rotation (Or even 4th spot if it’s not Kremer/Baumann, barring no major improvements from the others), the team’s in trouble. I still think Kremer has the most potential, maybe Baumann if his latest run represents a change in talent level.

Stevens: The most interesting arm of this group is Michael Baumann. He’s big, powerful, and has a loaded repertoire of pitches that can make him a successful starter who can easily work deep into outings. He took a while to regain his confidence after his 2020 injury at the Alt Site, but that confidence is back. Rom and Knight are also very intriguing. Knight has rebounded well from a brutal 2019 in Frederick and I can easily see him being a bullpen piece who throws 96-97 mph with a swing-and-miss slider. Rom has very quietly dominated in the minor leagues and has been 2-3 years younger than his competition at each level. He’s striking out more guys, walking less, and not giving up many home runs as he moves up through the system. He could be one of the hot names in 2022.

Stoner: All of them have had success at-least at the AA level. It doesn’t matter if only a couple of them have ML mid-rotation upside; you’ve got depth in numbers. If you get 1-2 backend starters, and 1-2 contributing relievers; that’s a win. I feel like the Rays would look at that group, and get more out of them. And maybe that would be piggybacked starts, or whatever. There aren’t many starters you want facing a lineup 3 times. But could you get more out of them collectively, if you utilized them like a Spring Training staff?

BSL Question 6) By next June, we should expect (imo) that Rutschman is the Orioles everyday Catcher, and Rodriguez is in the rotation, with Hall quickly following pending health. It would be unfair to ask any of those 3 to ascend and be immediate saviors. Is it realistic to think Rutschman can be a league average C in ’22, and that Rodriguez can be a league average 3rd starter? 

Kory: Sure, but while catching and hitting at the major league level is pretty different than doing those things in Triple-A, I’m not sure pitching is that different. Obviously the competition is much different and much much better at the major league level, but if you have the stuff and command, it’s reasonable to expect something approaching immediate success from a pitcher that I don’t think it’s fair to ask of an everyday member of the lineup. But on the whole, sure.  

Spedden: I think that’s possible. Rutschman is so advanced now, and should improve even more after time with more experienced players at Triple-A. While it’s not a guarantee that he’ll be great on both sides of the ball immediately, I think he’ll do one of those things (hit or catch) well enough to be about league average next season. Rodriguez might be a bit behind Rutschman in reaching the majors, but I fully him to debut next summer if he’s healthy. Once he does, I think the chances of him putting up numbers similar to those of a league-average mid-rotation starter are within the realm of possibility.  

Phelan: I think Rutschman would be a league average catcher today with his skills behind the dish, immense power at the plate, and advanced plate discipline. With another year of development to work on his swing and hone his hit tool I think he can have an impact right away even if it takes a few years for him to reach his peak. Rodriguez’s stuff is electric with all four of his pitches being above major league average. There is a chance he could be a league average third starter about a year from now. Depending on the refinement of his command he could be even better. Hall is a guy who could have some growing pains as he settles into a major league role but I wouldn’t expect as much with Rodriguez.

Loftus: Rutschman can absolutely be a league average offensive catcher in 2022. Average overall is harder to say as catcher fielding numbers can be highly variable. But if the fielding stats line up with what the scouting says, there’s a chance he’s a top-10 catcher in 2022. Grayson Rodriguez has a wider range of possible outcomes, particularly as pitching development can be highly non-linear. To me, an average #3 is around a top-50 to 60ish guy, and Rodriguez absolutely could be that.

Stevens: Both Rutschman and Rodriguez could be major league contributors right now. We all know why Rustchman is still in the minor leagues. It’s not because he needs to work on anything major. He’s going to hit some bumps in the road in 2022 as he also learns the major league game from behind the plate, but he will be a well-above league average catcher immediately.

Stoner: It sure would be great if the service-time games could be eliminated in the next CBA. Would benefit the game as a whole. And yes, as long as the rules exist as they do; it makes all the sense in the world to not have them up next year until the Orioles have gained that additional year of team-control. I won’t be asking them to be going on MVP and CY runs next year, but both should help the roster immediately.

BSL Question 7) Mullins has had a breakout year in CF. There are legitimate questions and positives with Hays and Santander on the corners.  Mancini and Mountcastle will continue to handle 1st and DH. Jones and Vavra seem to be in-line for opportunities at 2nd. Westburg and Henderson can start ’22 at AA, and are possible options at both SS and 3rd by the middle of ’22.  What do you think of this positional core?  

Kory: You have to like Mullins in center, even if his bat tails off a bit going forward, but if he can repeat this season he’s a perennial all-star. Mancini and Mountcastle can be above average bats and below average gloves, so that’s fine. Hays and Santander look very similar players at this point, somewhat injury-prone 26 year old outfielders with some pop and very little in the way of plate discipline. They’re good backups and below average starters on a good team. I don’t think it’s outlandish to suggest Jones or Vavra could develop into a starting second baseman, but I don’t think either is close to a sure thing in that regard (I prever Jones, for the record). Both Westburg and Henderson are good shortstop prospects, but neither is such a sure thing as to avoid signing a big free agent shortstop this winter (which I think the O’s should do but probably won’t). 
Overall, the core looks promising, but as you said, there’s time for all of those guys between now and when they potentially reach the majors. There’s time for them to get better, and there’s time for them to stagnate and/or get hurt. You never know with prospects. 

Spedden: It’s an appealing base, but I would like to see Hays and Santander healthier for a longer period. It also might be asking a lot of Henderson, who won’t turn 21 until next June and hasn’t played above A-ball yet, to be in a major-league infield by the middle of next year. That said, these players reflect that the depth of this system is getting much better and I think all could be at least useful role players on a contending team or (more specifically in the case of Santander) have the potential to bring back value in a trade. I also like what I’ve seen overall from Mountcastle this season and expect him to only get better. Mullins is having a great season and at least looks like he can be a dependable starting centerfielder over the next few years.

Phelan: Its a start. I don’t think we see Westburg or Henderson until 2023 but whoever emerges between Jones/Vavra could be solid. Mullins and Mountcastle are locked in. Mancini may or may not be here next season, same with Santander. Hays is still a question mark for me. I don’t think we’ve seen enough to think he can be an everyday outfielder on a contending team. The core will be much better in ’23 than ’22 when guys like Westburg, Henderson, and Cowser really start to make an impact at the big league level.

Loftus: Without steps forward by players, that’s not a playoff core. The only guy who I’d really be willing to bet on as a top-10 guy at his position is Mullins, at least in 2022. Guys like Mountcastle (If he doesn’t strike out too much) and Hays (If he can stay on the field) could be further in the future, but I wouldn’t put too much on it.

Stevens: It’s a core with promise and doesn’t even include the likes of Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad who won’t be too far behind (Kjerstad health pending). It seems as if the Orioles are trying to grow the bats and buy the arms and after the conversations we have had at On The Verge with Orioles Director of Player Development Matt Blood and Bowie hitting coordinator Ryan Fuller, it’s very clear that the Orioles new approach to teaching and developing hitting is working among their prospects right now. It’s still early in the process but there’s real optimism brewing. If guys like Vavra, Jones, Henderson, and Westburg can reach the majors soon and don’t bring with them on-base concerns (see Mountcastle), this lineup will be able to generate much more offense in 2022.

Stoner: I like Hays more than most, I think he’s extremely talented. But he’s been on the DL twice this year, and he has a .728 OPS entering tonight. That’s not going to cut it. These last 50 games are big for him. Stay in the lineup each night, and produce. If he doesn’t, or worse – if he gets hurt again, I’ll be less optimistic. Santander has gotten hot, which is good to see. He has real power, he’s at-least usable in the field, and he’s got real OBP issues. (So does Hays.) Just like Hays, Santander needs to take advantage of the time he gets the rest of this year. Depending on how that duo does the rest of the way, and how Westburg and Henderson finish their years in the Minors – will sway my opinions in answering this question. I think overall though, there is some promise with this group, but it needs some help from outside the organization. It would be better if the Orioles didn’t have to rely on both Westburg and Henderson. Jones and Vavra both have some promise, and I’m excited to see them get time at 2nd soon – but neither is some lock. What Mullins has done is extraordinary, and he’s been incredibly consistent this year. If he’s a .750 OPS hitter next year, playing a strong CF; he’s still a very valuable piece. If he’s this .900+ OPS guy going forward with his defense, he’s one of the better players in the game. What a great story! I’ve said above, I expect Manicni to get his extension. And while neither him or Mountcastle are stars; I’m perfectly fine with them as a combo at 1st and DH (especially while Mountcastle costs very little).

BSL Question 8) Means has shown to be a quality starter, even if he is not a legitimate ace.  Rodriguez and Hall (depending on the severity of his injury) are on-track to both be able to join the Orioles rotation by next June.  We talked about the Akin / Kremer / Lowther / Baumann / Wells / Zimmermann / Bradish / Smith / Rom / Knight group.  If you add two competent mid-rotation ML starters; can you see the makings of league average or better ’22 rotation? 

Kory: You can see the makings, yes. The trick is going to be 1) adding above average starters (two is a lot to ask), 2) staying healthy, and 3) having the depth to compensate when you can’t do 2). 
Ultimately it’s going to depend on the time table for the team to compete for the division, and I think the last thing the team should do is spend big money on free agent starters. I don’t mean they shouldn’t do it, I mean it should actually be last on the list. Those are the guys with the most danger, so to me it doesn’t make sense to add them two or three seasons before you expect to contend. 

Spedden: Maybe, if they get enough productive innings from Rodriguez and Hall and a free agent or two works out. Add in a typical season from John Means, and you’ve got a rotation you can work with. The problem is that we don’t know what the Orioles can expect from a one-year free agent, and injuries are always a looming concern with pitchers. There’s also the chance that Rodriguez or Hall debut later in the 2022 season than we currently expect. While I think it’s possible to expect that the rotation is league average next year, it might be more realistic to hope for a slightly below average rotation that greatly improves over the second half, thanks to reinforcements from the farm system to go with Means and whoever else the Orioles put in their rotation next year.

Phelan: I think you could come close if you add the two guys I mentioned above. Start the ’22 season with Means, Davies, Pineda, Baumann, Zimmermann and replace two of them with Rodriguez and Hall as the season wears on. If that does happen, things could start to turn around faster than most Oriole fans think. It all comes down to pitching development and I think between Chris Holt, Darren Holmes, and AA pitching coach Justin Ramsey the Orioles are going to prove to be different than past regimes in that regard.

Loftus:  No, short of a FA overhaul of the rotation. I think Hall is more likely to start in AA with a chance for a September callup, just due to injury questions remaining this year. Rodriguez probably starts in AAA and is in Baltimore in June (Again, caveat about the non-linearity of pitching development). Means is a low-end #2, probably ideally a high-end #3 on a playoff rotation. 2023’s potential rotation (Means, Rodriguez, Hall, plus FA) has a chance for league average or better, but not 2022 without major luck.

Stevens: I do agree that John Means is a legitimate major league piece. Grayson Rodriguez appears to be on that track. Let’s say Hall doesn’t work out or converts to a late-inning reliever. That’s ok. Among Kyle Bradish, Michael Baumann, Dean Kremer, you hope just one can pan out. That gives you three good starters with a massive group of arms to filter through and find a number five. Bring in that prized free agent pitcher after the 2022 season and you have a major league rotation that can compete in the AL East. That’s banking on a lot of development going right, but the pieces are there to form a majority of a quality rotation.

Stoner: If you add two external starters who project to be league-average 3rd starters, and you team them with Means; you’ve got the makings of a competent rotation. You add Rodriguez as a 3rd or 4th type starter in ’22, and get one league-average 5th starter out of Akin / Kremer / Lowther / Baumann / Wells / Zimmermann / Bradish / Smith / Rom / Knight group (Baumann being the guy I’m most excited of out of that group); then you have something. Asking for two league average mid-rotation starters should not be some wild unobtainable goal for the Orioles Front Office.