College Football Playoff Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs #3 Georgia (Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN)
Monday January 10, 8:00pm ET, ESPN
Spread: Georgia -2.5
Well, it all comes down to this. Alabama and Georgia will play for the national championship for the second time in five years. Way back in early October, after just five weeks of games, I stated it was an overreaction to claim the title chase was already narrowed down to Alabama and Georgia. Turns out that was no overreaction. Both teams easily dispatched of their semifinal opponents in dominating fashion. Swap any other team outside the Top 4 for Cincinnati and Michigan and the results would have been the same. There can be no denial that we ended up with the two best teams.
While it’s an intriguing matchup that could produce a very good game, it’s probably one that few outside the Southeast US hoped to see. Factor in that it’s a rematch of a game played only a month ago and that probably dampens enthusiasm even more (as secondary market ticket prices appear to indicate). I’ll go into the subject of competitive imbalance and its impact on the postseason much deeper during the offseason. For now, on to the matchup.
Alabama Offense vs Georgia Defense
As this is a rematch, we pretty much know how each of these teams should attack one another. When Alabama has the ball, they are likely to be most successful attacking Georgia’s defense downfield through the air. While the Bulldogs gave up the third fewest YPA passing this season at 5.8 (which was only .3 more than #1 Washington), Alabama burned them for 9.6 YPA in the SEC Championship, including 67 and 55 yard touchdown passes to Jameson Williams. John Metchie was also an important part of Alabama’s aerial attack that day, and as has been well-noted he is out with an ACL. Since the Tide only attempted 28 passes against Cincinnati, versus 47 rushing attempts, the loss of Metchie was muted in the semi.
That will not be the case against Georgia, whom Alabama barely even tried to run against last month. They need someone who can stretch the field and make Georgia pay if they give too much attention to Williams. Slade Bolden is a reliable receiver who can keep the chains moving, but at 10.4 yards per catch on the season he is not much of a vertical threat. If Alabama plays a methodical, move-the-chains style, Georgia can probably take Bolden out of the equation in the red zone when the field shrinks (the Bulldogs gave up red zone TDs at a near historical low 28.5% this season). The Tide’s answer will likely have to be true freshman WR Ja’Cory Brooks. Brooks has made an impact late in the season, and had a 44-yard TD reception in the Cotton Bowl. He is likely going to be Alabama’s X-factor on offense.
Georgia’s defense knows what it must do to slow down Alabama and avoid a repeat, and that is get pressure on Bryce Young. A lot. For all 60 minutes. That that they didn’t do so the first time was perhaps the most surprising factor in the SEC Championship game. They had zero sacks, seldom got pressure, and when they did Young was deftly able to buy time with his mobility and make the Bulldogs pay. Kirby Smart and Dan Lanning are two of the best defensive minds in the game, and they must have an answer this time. As stated, Bryce Young can beat you with his mobility, so the pass rush must also be disciplined in addition to relentless.
Georgia Offense vs Alabama Defense
Georgia’s defense will probably go a long way in dictating whether their offense will be successful or not. The Bulldogs need to play from ahead (even though they did have a 10-0 lead in the SEC Championship), or at the very least no more than a score behind. Despite a lot of intrigue, and some consternation over the state of Georgia’s QB room, Stetson Bennett is the guy, for better or worse. To his credit, Bennett had a very efficient game against a great Michigan defense. He even dropped a 57-yard dime to Jermaine Burton for a TD right before halftime (though a big assist should go to DB Vincent Gray, who had he not inexplicably given up too early could have been in position for a pick….but I digress). Bennett did much of the heavy lifting on the two 1st Qtr TD drives that provided all the points they would need against the Wolverines. He was also aided by a Georgia running game that added 190 yards on 5.5 YPC. Does that mean my longstanding opinion on him not being able to win a national championship has changed? Not really. Well, maybe. It depends. While he still can’t make the plays with his arm you typically need against the likes of Alabama, I can see a path where Georgia actually might not need him to do that. Alabama’s secondary, their corners specifically, are banged up. If George Pickens and Jermaine Burton can beat their man often enough, and he doesn’t have to rely as heavily on TE Brock Bowers (who left the Orange Bowl with a shoulder injury but is expected to play) Bennett just might be enough to finally get Georgia to the promised land.
For Alabama’s defense, it’s all about helping out their ailing/inexperienced corners. Josh Jobe, who had battled turf toe for much of the latter part of the season, is out after having surgery. Jalyn Armour-Davis, who did not play in the SEC Championship with a hip injury and had to leave during the Cotton Bowl when it became aggravated, is questionable. The best remedy for this is pass rush, something Will Anderson & Co did very well in the first meeting. For as mobile a QB as Stetson Bennett is, he’s not going to beat you throwing on the run. If Alabama can’t get to Bennett as effectively this time, then they will have no choice but to rely on their likely-inexperienced corners to maintain enough coverage that it forces Bennett to get the ball into a tight window, something he obviously does not excel at. If Ja’Cory Brooks is Alabama’s X-factor on offense, then freshman CB Kool-Aid McKinstry is his counterpart on defense. If he can lock down one of Pickens or Burton, Bennett could be in for a difficult night. While Alabama’s run defense is outstanding, albeit a notch below Georgia’s, the Bulldogs will probably still try to get some yards on the ground. The Tide cannot, and probably will not, allow that to happen.
Final Thoughts and Pick
If you told me I could have Nick Saban +2.5 points in a game that’s for all the marbles, against a team he’s already beaten this season, and a coach he’s 4-0 against overall, I’d be cashing out my retirement account to post. Apparently, I’m not alone. A lot of money has come in on Alabama, and yet, the line has mostly held (Georgia opened as a 3pt favorite).
So what does Vegas know that we don’t? Is it that winning teams don’t fare well in title game rematches? I think the sample size is too small on that one to really say. The last time we had a same-season rematch for the championship in college football was 2011, when (guess who) Alabama had their way with LSU after losing to the Tigers in OT in early November. Before that you have to go all the way back to the 1996 season to find a title game rematch (or de facto title game, as it was in that era) when Florida defeated Florida State in the Sugar Bowl after losing to the Seminoles in the regular season finale.
Maybe the combination of injuries and inexperience for Alabama at WR/CB is the reason relatively-healthy Georgia is the favorite. That makes a little more sense, but I still don’t see even the worst case scenario making the Tide a dog (pardon the pun).
Do they think Georgia wasn’t really as motivated in the SEC Championship, their Playoff spot certainly secure by then, as Alabama was? Then how do you explain the Bulldogs jumping out to a 10-0 lead? Did Alabama decide to just wait until the 2nd Qtr to start playing with their pants on fire? C’mon.
I certainly might end up regretting feeling this bold about a pick, but jeez, take the Tide. You wanna give me 2.5 points too, go right ahead. Honestly though, I’d probably take them in this game even if they were giving Georgia 2.5. But Nick Saban loves him some yummy rat poison, so who am I to begrudge?
My Pick – Alabama +2.5 (and straight up)
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.