College Football 2021 – Week 12 Preview

A Top 10 team lost for the 8th straight week. With only two weeks left in the regular season, just one team appears ticketed for the Playoff right now.

Overreaction: It’s business as usual in the college football coaching carousel, but we should just accept that it’s the way of the sport now.

The college coaching carousel began to accelerate after Week 2 with Clay Helton’s firing at USC, and is now stuck on hyper-drive. This week’s victims include Jimmy Lake at Washington, Butch Davis at Florida International, and Justin Fuente at Virginia Tech. Lake essentially sealed his fate when he appeared to hit one of his players on the sideline during a game. Davis actually resigned rather than wait to be fired, likely in disgust over gross disinvestment in the program by the FIU administration.

I’d like to focus on Fuente for a moment; or more accurately, Virginia Tech. Fuente’s departure came at a price for Tech, as it almost always does when a school fires a coach. VT would have contractually owed Fuente a $10 million buyout for letting him go during the season, but that amount was negotiated down to $8.75 million. Thing is, had they waited until after the final game of the regular season, the buyout would have dropped to $7.5 million. So basically Virginia Tech is paying $1.25 million to fire Fuente two weeks early.

I have repeatedly stated that there isn’t much point in keeping a coach around that you know you are inevitably going to fire in a matter of weeks. No one really benefits from it; not the coach, his staff, the players or prospective recruits. But here’s my question….is Virginia Tech’s athletic department so flush with cash that they can so easily pay an extra $1.25 million to not have to wait just two weeks? I honestly don’t know, but what I’m fairly certain of is that money could have gone to a lot of purposes that are likely more beneficial to VA Tech athletics than two weeks of being rid of Justin Fuente.

For the sake of brevity, I’ll save most of my points on where the coaching profession in college football appears headed for a column of its own after the season. But I think it might be time for a reckoning with regard to how much these schools are paying head coaches, and especially how willing they are to eat millions, even tens of millions of dollars, to toss them aside for the next flavor of the day.

Recalibration: Oklahoma isn’t going to find that next gear late in the season like they have in recent seasons…because they don’t have one.

Sometimes the Playoff selection committee gives us a head-scratcher in their rankings. One such instance is dropping Michigan State below Michigan only one week after the Spartans defeated the Wolverines. I thought another was the first release of the season when they had unbeaten Oklahoma ranked just #8, below 4 teams that had a loss. Turns out that was my own bias at work, as Oklahoma was my preseason champion pick. I mean, they still managed to win all their games, so of course they were much better than #8…and they would soon prove the committee wrong. Right?

I dismissed the way-too-narrow wins over opponents that weren’t good. Only beat Tulane by 5? Just season-opener rust. Just 7 over Nebraska? The Huskers were super-hyped to renew an old rivalry. A 3-point win against West Virginia? Conference games are never easy. Screw the eyeball test. As the shaky wins piled up, I shrugged off the red flags.

The committee did not. Their job is to consider only what has happened this season to date. They don’t look at seasons past. They don’t project what you might do in the future. Turns out, they might have been too generous putting the Sooners at #8.

Last Saturday in Waco, the curtain was pulled back. Baylor’s defense might not be as stout as their #27 ranking in points-allowed suggests, as my game preview last week shows. Still, they were the best defense Oklahoma faced all season. Oklahoma’s #1 ranked offensive EPA belied some major issues that were exposed by the Bears. First, their running game isn’t all that. They put up big numbers against some very bad defenses to look decent overall, but they were too inconsistent and struggled to run in games against West Virginia, Texas Tech and Kansas. (Kansas!!!) Baylor limited them to just 78 yards on the ground.

While Caleb Williams still looks like he could be the next great Sooner QB, he’s also been inconsistent since making his big splash against Texas. Saturday he never got in a rhythm, throwing just 9/18, 142 yards and 2 INTs. It got so bad the Sooner fans who made the trip, and it appeared there were a lot who did, actually chanted for the return of Spencer Rattler. Irony aside, their wish was granted in the 2nd Half when Williams was briefly pulled with what appeared to be a hand injury. But unlike Williams in the Red River Shootout, Rattler did not have a rabbit to pull out of his hat, and Williams would actually return to the game.

So that ought to do it for my preseason pick. Even if the Sooners somehow manage to beat Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and probably the Cowboys again in the Big 12 Championship, there does not appear to be a path all the way from #13 to #4 or better.

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Odds and Ends

There was no movement of note in the CFP rankings this week. The teams that got a bump as a result of Oklahoma and Texas A&M’s losses stayed in the same order. Looking at the games coming up this week, I think we could see some leap-frogging in next week’s rankings.

Here’s some more coaching carousel talk… [cue Andy Williams}

It is being reported that Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley has been offered an 8-year $96 million contract by LSU. One way or another, I suppose he’ll be coaching in the SEC down the road.

Sounds like we can cross Mel Tucker off the list of coaches who might be poached for a “better job.” It’s being reported Michigan State is finalizing a 10-year / $95 million extension with him. If that’s accurate, he would become the highest paid African American coach in any US sport.

Wake Forest got back in the win column in a shootout with NC State. They have not scored less than 35 points in any game so far this season. That defense tho. Still, they can clinch the Atlantic with a win at Clemson Saturday. Dave Clawson’s name has already been linked to the just-opened position at Virginia Tech.

Oregon State became bowl-eligible for the first time since 2013 with a win over Stanford. Expect Jonathan Smith to be a name that comes up when discussing Power 5 coaching vacancies. I bet Washington fans would welcome him back in a heartbeat (he was the Huskies OC under Chris Petersen from 2014-17). Oregon State would be wise to extend him, fast.

One school that did move fast in locking up their head coach at the first sniff of success is UTSA, who signed Jeff Traylor to a 10-year $28 million extension a couple weeks ago. The first year contains a buyout of $7.5 million. Will a middling Power 5 program be willing to pay that as part of a deal to lure him away? I’d never bet against it.

Mike Leach, when asked about why coaching turnover is so high in college football: “Because people are nuts…general societal mental illness.”

Love him or loathe him, the guy is a national treasure.

Oklahoma State is a team few people seemed to take very seriously when they were 6-0. The few who did probably forgot about them when they lost by 3 at Iowa State. Now here they sit at 9-1, ranked #9 in the CFP, and probably the favorite to win the Big 12 Championship. The path to a Playoff berth would be a very narrow one for the Cowboys. That a path still exists at all at this point is noteworthy unto itself, I’d say.

The Big 12 fined Baylor $25,000 for their fans rushing the field after defeating Oklahoma. My only question….what wasn’t it $50,000?

The above comment is in reference to the unusual ending of that game. It appeared time would expire with Baylor possessing the ball up by 10 and Oklahoma unable to stop the clock. With the seconds ticking down, out came the fans. But Baylor head coach Dave Aranda had called a timeout with 3 seconds left. Why? To attempt a FG. Why? He said it was in case a point-differential tie-breaker would be in play if Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State finished in a three-way tie in the conference. So they had to herd all the fans to the sidelines and bring enough Oklahoma players out from the locker room to run one final play. The FG was good, and for the second time, the fans rushed the field.

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Game of the Week

#7 Michigan State at #4 Ohio State

Noon ET, ABC

Spread: Ohio State -19

Kudos to the Big Ten for scheduling its two most important games of the season in the penultimate and final weeks of the season. Someone at HQ must be the second coming of Nostradamus, because before the season started Ohio State wrapping up its schedule with Michigan State and Michigan didn’t look all that special to me. Thank goodness we actually play the games.

19 points is a pretty huge spread for a game between the #4 and #7 teams. The Buckeyes have been a double-digit favorite in all of their previous conference games this season, and they are 4-3 ATS. The Spartans are 3-0 as an underdog, both straight up and ATS.

The matchups don’t really look good for Sparty. They give up the most passing yards per game in the Big ten, 329. Ohio State has two, maybe even three legitimate future 1st Round wide receivers in Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jaxson Smith-Njigba. If QB CJ Stroud is even halfway decent, he could have eye-popping numbers. The Spartans best weapon against the pass is their pass-rush. They average 3.2 sacks per game (#11 in the country) and will have to get pressure on Stroud. They can’t ignore OSU RB TreVeyon Henderson though, who is averaging 7.5 yards per carry.

On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes appear to have worked out the major issues they had early in the season stopping the run (the 269 yards on the ground they gave up to Oregon seems a distant memory now). But Kenneth Walker III could easily bring those nightmares back. The defense must be true to their assignments, but also swarm to help each other out in tackling, as Walker averages the most yards-after-contact of any back in the country.

I feel like MSU’s chances will come down to one of the least mentioned key players, and that’s MSU QB Payton Thorne. There could be opportunities for him downfield with so much focus likely going to Walker. For the Spartans to have a chance, he will need to make the defense pay for loading the box. The Spartans also must keep this game close. They cannot expect to pull off the sort of comeback they did against Michigan (down 16 late in the 3rd Qtr).

I think Sparty is too good to get blown out like Purdue did last week, but a win here seems too tall an order for me. That means the OSU/Michigan game next week is for all the marbles.

My Pick: Michigan State +19

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The Other Game of the Week

#3 Oregon at #23 Utah

7:30pm ET, ABC

Spread: Utah -3

This is the toughest opponent Oregon has faced since their Week 2 trip to Columbus, and only their second game since then as an underdog (at UCLA being the other). The journey since then hasn’t been a pretty one, and yet here they sit with two weeks left in the regular season likely in control of their Playoff destiny.

It feels like the Ducks are carrying more than just their own Playoff hopes on their backs. The legitimacy of the Pac-12 as a Power 5 conference would seem to rest on whether they can win their next 3 games (including the conference championship game, probably a rematch with the Utes). That can be a heavy burden, though I doubt that’s really on the top of players’ minds at the moment. Still, I’m sure they have heard and been asked about it at some point.

Utah has been largely overlooked since dropping two early non-conference road games to teams currently in the Top 20, BYU and San Diego State. Save a one possession loss at Oregon State, they have pretty much had their way with the rest of the Pac-12. They are certainly a team capable of knocking off Oregon, especially at home.

While they are often associated with good defense, the Utes have hit the over in 8 of their 10 games this season and are surrendering nearly 24ppg, #53 in the country (5th in Pac-12). They’re 48th in rushing yards per game allowed (136 yards). In each of their three losses they gave up over 200 yards rushing, including being bludgeoned on the ground for 260 yards by Oregon State. I mention all these numbers because the Ducks want to run the ball, and they do it well (#10 in the country at 227 YPG and 5.55 YPC).

I singled this game out in my preseason article where I talked about the game that could eliminate the Ducks from the Playoff. My gut told me then that would be a game they lose, and my gut still tells me the same, despite the numbers telling me that Oregon should be able to control this game by chewing up yards on the ground. It goes without saying the Utes will be fired up for this game. So will the crowd in the stands. I’m going to stick with my gut.

My Pick: Utah -3

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The Other, Other Game of the Week

SMU at #5 Cincinnati

3:30pm ET, ESPN

Spread: Cincinnati -11.5

With SMU dropping two games this one lost some luster. Still, this is the biggest test Cincinnati has faced wince their win over Notre Dame on Oct 2. In recent weeks, several teams that the Bearcats have no business losing to have given them fits. They’re starting to sound like Oklahoma. If that’s the case, I don’t think this will be the week where their dream season comes undone. More likely, I think playing a team of the Mustangs’ caliber wakes them up.

My Pick:  Cincinnati -11.5

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My Top 12

1	Georgia
2	Alabama
3	Ohio State
4	Cincinnati
5	Oregon
6	Michigan State
7	Michigan
8	Notre Dame
9	Oklahoma State
10	Ole Miss
11	Baylor
12	Oklahoma

It’s the second-to-last week of the regular season. There are three games featuring ranked teams head-to-head; the two I featured above, and #21 Arkansas at #2 Alabama. The final week should be just as packed.