As you’re likely well-aware, the Orioles jumped into the trade market yesterday by shipping fan-favorite Trey Mancini to the Astros for a pair of pitching prospects. My colleague Matt Kory covered the deal and the feelings evoked by the three-team swap. It’s a well-crafted piece. If you haven’t already, check it out.
My spin…
We discussed the possibility of a Mancini trade on the most recent episode of The Warehouse. I was on record as believing a deal to be unlikely. Few teams are looking to buy first base/designate hitter types. The market includes as many recognizable names as prospective buyers. By striking first, the Orioles ensured they wouldn’t lose this MLB-edition of musical chairs.
The acquisition of Seth Johnson exceeded my expectations. As Matt noted, his combination of Rule 5 eligibility and recent Tommy John surgery makes him an unusual asset from a team control perspective. Injured players typically aren’t selected in the Rule 5 draft, but it would be a serious risk to leave him off the roster. He’ll only clog the 40-man roster over the winter after which he can be placed on the 60-day injured list. However, in addition to the missed time, Johnson appears to require about a full season of further development before he’s ready for primetime. Possibly two years. That will chew through options and/or service time.
While most prospect reports still reckon Johnson a starting pitcher prospect, I view him as a high probability reliever – high probability in this case referring to both a likelihood to wind up in the ‘pen and a future as an above average big league contributor. This enters into the above Rule 5 considerations. A team could pick him, stash him on the injured list, then carry him over to 2024 as a reliever. It’s a sort of long-con that most clubs won’t be interested in pursuing which is why the Orioles could roll the dice and leave him off the roster.
As for the other guy they acquired, they’re taking a chance on Chayce McDermott. I honestly don’t have any insights to add – he’s a typical dev-project with some likeable traits and a long way to go.
With the first domino toppled, what’s next for the Orioles on Deadline Day?
The club features several marketable players who could be wearing a new uniform tomorrow. Anthony Santander and Jorge Lopez are the two we’ve talked about all season as potential trade bait. They’re both controlled through the end of 2024. In other words, there’s no pressure to force a trade.
Jordan Lyles has a pricey $11MM club option for 2023. He’s likely headed back to the open market after the season. Lyles is by no means an exciting pitcher, but there are multiple contenders who would appreciate somebody who can take the ball every five days without always falling on his face. His 4.56 ERA is only slightly worse than the league average 3.99 ERA.
Less likely to be dealt are Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. They’re solidly above average players with three more seasons of club control remaining. Said control could yield a robust and surprising trade offer. Mullins, a center fielder, would be difficult to replace. An offer would have to press a LOT of buttons.
Hays could be replicated by any number of affordable upcoming free agents. The likes of David Peralta, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley, Andrew Benintendi, A.J. Pollock, Joey Gallo, and Mitch Haniger are all set to hit the market this winter. For now, so is Aaron Judge.
In the short term, they can bring back DJ Stewart for a final trial if Santander or Hays are dealt. Stewart was designated for assignment in April and is currently working his way back from an undisclosed injury. That’s assuming Mancini’s spot in the lineup goes to Kyle Stowers.
A last area to mention is the bullpen. Yesterday, the Cubs dealt Scott Effross to the Yankees for a good-not-great pitching prospect (Hayden Wesneski). It was a win-win swap for the Cubs and Yankees even though it involved a good relief pitcher with five more seasons of club control. Baltimore could be open to similar swaps involving their surprisingly effective relief corps. While I doubt they’re actively shopping the likes of Felix Bautista, Dillon Tate, Cionel Perez, and others, I also assume they’ve received inquiries. Some of them might even be good enough to engage upon.
What about contending?
A Mancini trade doesn’t mean the Orioles can’t continue to pursue contention – though it certainly isn’t a great message to send the clubhouse. In the short term, Mancini can be directly replaced with Stowers, a volatile power-hitting outfielder who could conceivably outplay Mancini over the remainder of the season. The Steamer projection system on FanGraphs already projects Stowers as (very slightly) better than Mancini. The other two systems – ZiPS and THE BAT – strongly prefer Mancini. I figure Stowers has somewhere around a one-in-four chance to outperform Mancini.
Mike Elias has clearly signaled his intent to continue stockpiling assets. However, every system has players they’ve given up on who other franchises view as salvageable. Such players could be used to acquire less attractive reinforcements. For instance, Madison Bumgarner is signed to an overpriced contract through 2024. He’s owed the balance of $23MM this season, another $23MM next year, and only $14MM in 2024. Despite performing well-below his Giants prime, Bumgarner has managed to compile a lucky-looking 3.83 ERA in a tough division while averaging over five innings a start.
Bumgarner is an illustrative example. He could modestly bolster their current playoff aspirations without costing any actual prospect capital. While such players do cost real American USD, the Orioles balance sheets are ridiculously open. With the wave of talent cresting in the minors, they have another four or five years of incredibly affordable players on the way.
What I want?
Well, what I’d hoped to see was for the Orioles to keep Mancini and largely stand pat. Basically, a vote of confidence on the current roster – addition by not making the long-expected subtractions. Alas, it was not meant to be.
If we accept that Baltimore won’t be making any trades that don’t brighten the future, that still leaves a narrow path to bolster the club using only cash considerations and non-prospects. Despite a better than .500 record, they’re a longshot to reach the postseason. However, it would be a shame to squander this opportunity to play meaningful baseball into late-September. Give the likes of Mullins, Mountcastle, Hays, and others a taste of contending.
These are important veterans to the club who have likely grown accustomed to losing. They toil for a contract and personal gain. Contending now gives them a small taste of the pressure, nerves, and comradery associated with postseason baseball. They’ll be less likely to choke in future seasons when the Orioles take aim at multiple pennants.
Brad Johnson is a fantasy baseball analyst for NBC SportsEDGE. He also contributes to “Front Office” content at MLB Trade Rumors. You can additionally find his work and support him directly at Patreon.com/BaseballATeam or follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam.