The EPL is essentially at the half way point for the season. Although numerous games have been cancelled (and yet to be rescheduled) due to the ongoing virus issue. But all teams have at played at least 17 matches with most having played 19 or 20. Two teams, Manchester City and Chelsea, have each played 21.
Back in August a preseason outlook was posted. If you want to go back and refresh your memory here’s the link:
So given that we are half way through lets take a look at how teams are doing compared to their preseason projection. Bear in mind that a teams current place in the standings compared to the projections can be a bit skewed due to the differences in matches played. But you can still get a pretty good sense of how they are doing. The summaries here are going to look at two things. A teams current place in the standings and then the +/- of the points differential between where they were projected compared to where they sit right now. Lastly, the review is going to group them according to their overall grades.
Overall A Rated Teams
Brentford – Projected to finish in 19th they currently sit in 12th place and are 12 points ahead of their projected spot in the standings. What a story the Bees have been so far. Newly promoted after finishing 3rd in the Championship last season they have played their way into the hearts of most EPL fans. A top 10 finish is certainly within reach, On the Pro Soccer Talk podcast on NBC they have dubbed the Bees as every fans second favorite EPL team. Hard to disagree!!
Crystal Palace – Projected to finish 17th they currently sit in 11th and are 10 points ahead of their projected spot. Manager Patrick Viera has assembled a young and talented side and in fact dealt Manchester City one of its two losses. Viera may be one of the more underrated managers in the league.
West Ham United – The Hammers sit in 5th place with 7 points ahead of their projected 9th spot They have a legit shot at a top 4 finish and a spot in next years UCL. They are only one point behind Arsenal. They have already beaten both Chelsea and Liverpool and have advanced to the Round of 16 in the Europa League. So fun to see these lesser teams making noise. Sometimes heart and uncovered talent can beat out the big money clubs.
Liverpool – The Reds sit 7 points above their projected 4th place finish and look solid to finish in the top 4. They have had some injuries to the back 7 and a couple of less than adequate results over the last several weeks. But they have Mo Salah (who may well be the best player anywhere right now) and when they are healthy they can beat anybody. They have a chance to take home a UCL trophy this spring.
Brighton Hove Albion – Projected to finish in 13th they sit in the 9 spot 5 points ahead of their projected spot. They had a bit of a scoring slump in the middle of the first half which led to a bunch of draws. Close matches that they were winning earlier in the season. It appears they have started to get those finished back and if they start scoring well again they should finish in the top 10 could end up high enough to earn a Europa League spot this fall. But Seagulls? Seriously who names a sports team after a squawking bird who just drops a load wherever they land? LOL
Wolverhampton – The Wanderers are in 8th and 5 points ahead of their projected 12th. The good news for them is that striker Raul Jimenez seems to be getting over his injury bug. If he starts scoring again they could make a second half push for at least a Europa League spot and a spot in the UCL isn’t out of the question.
Manchester City – City could and probably should almost have their own category. They are sitting in 1st right where they were projected. So their +/- points are a big fact zero. So how do they rate an A? Simple. They have won 11 straight matches since losing to Crystal Palace on October 30th. In that span they have outscored their opponents 33-7. That’s A level soccer in any bodies book. They are a full 10 points ahead of 2nd place Chelsea and should win their 4th title in the last 5 seasons. The real question the rest of the way for City is can they win a treble (EPL, FA Cup, and UCL). Don’t bet against them. When you have players well tuned with each other such as Gabriel Jesus (pictured above scoring in their FA Cup 3rd round match) and Kevin De Bruyne they just aren’t going to lose many,
Overall B Rated Teams
Arsenal – The Gunners are sitting in 4th, 2 points ahead of their projected 6th place finish. They started a bit shaky but manager Mikel Arteta has figured out the right lineup balance between youth and experience. They sit 7 points out of 4th place so it will take a really strong second half to get them to a coveted top 4 spot but they should finish with a Europa League spot.
Tottenham – Sit right where projected, in 6th place. However they are only 2 points out of 4th place and have two games in hand over Arsenal. Replacing Nuno Espirito Santo with Antonio Conte seems to have been a great move. The Spurs have become a very tough team to beat. If Harry Kane finds his stride the second half they will be very tough to handle.
Chelsea – Also sit right here projected in 2nd place. But all is not rosy for the Blues. They were the early season leaders then the injury bug hit. Romelu Lukaku has openly expressed his displeasure since returning from his injury with his useage. And they still have numerous injuries especially in the back. They are still in good shape but a back line addition this transfer window would help immensely. Sergino Dest anybody?
Overall C Rated Teams
Watford – Currently sitting in 17th 3 points ahead of their projected last place finish. The Hornets have had an odd, and typical for them, first half. They started well then ownership fired their manager, Xisco and replaced him with Claudio Ranieri. An odd move to say the least and they have struggled defensively since then. They have lost 6 straight and have not played very well. But the match before this run they trounced Manchester United so go figure. Hard to know how they will do the rest of the way but opponents best not look past them or they might get stung.
Southampton – Sitting 2 points ahead of their projected 16h place finish, 14th doesn’t look to bad for them. And they are likely in good shape to avoid the relegation zone. The biggest issue for the Saints has been the loss of Danny Ings to Aston Villa last summer. James Ward-Prowse needs to continue to provide leadership on the field while some of the young newcomers get the experience and training they need to improve.
Aston Villa – The Lions are sitting just 2 spots below their projected 11th place finish with a game in hand over Crystal Palace. They started the season poorly and given the finish at the end last year it didn’t take long for them to dismiss Dean Smith and replace him with Steven Gerrard. Gerrard has they playing smarter soccer but they are still a bit inconsistent. Suspect that will straighten out the rest of the way and a top 10 finish is possible. To move up the table though they need to sign some more offensive firepower.
Leeds United – A bit disappointing so far as they sit 6 points below their projected 10th place finish. But considering their injuries, especially to Patrick Bamford up top and Kalvin Phillips in the midfield, they are still relatively comfortable ahead of the relegation zone.
Leicester City – A fairly disappointing start thus far with the Foxes sitting 9 points below their projected 5th place finish and a spot in the Europa League. But they have been hit hard with defensive injuries and Jamie Vardy has been a bit off. If they can get healthy they still have the quality for a run to a top 8 or so finish.
Overall D Rated Teams
Norwich City – While just a single point below their projected 18th spot they currently sit last in the league and headed for relegation. The ongoing problem for the Canaries is that they suck in the attack. There is no sugar coating how bad they are having scored a whopping 8 goals in 19 matches. To put that in perspective, the next worst team in the league has scored 16 goals. Twice as many. The good news I guess is that they are only 3 points from climbing out of the relegation zone so there’s that.
Everton – Sitting down in 15th 6 points below the projected 10th place finish. The problem is two fold. First, their style under Rafael Benitez isn’t very fun to watch. Secondly, they don’t have enough talent and trending down not up. They need to get healthy but mostly they need a total revamp of their defense. No team ahead of them in the table has a worse goal differential.
Burnley – Projected to finish in 15th they sit 8 points below that down in 18th. They have only one once in their first 17 matches. Yikes. But the slight good news is that does give them 2 games in hand over the rest of the cellar dwellars. But Claret fans are holding their breath as this may well be the season they get sent down.
Manchester United – What the hell has happened with the Red Devils? They are a woeful 7th place a full 11 points below their projected 3rd place finish. Ole Gunner Solskjaer was fired but they haven’t looked much better under interim manager Ralf Rangnick. Now they do have sit just 4 points out of 4th with a game in hand. And they still have all that talent. The best news may be that goalkeeper David de Gea has been in top form. Bruno Fernandes and Harry McGuire, though, have been basically awful. If they can turn things around the second half they could finish strong. Lot of ifs surrounding this team right now. My bias is showing here so I kept them at a D. You certainly wouldn’t be wrong to say they have been an F.
Overall F Rated Teams
Newcastle United – Projected to finish in 14th well ahead of the relegation zone but things have not gone well. The Magpies sit 10 points behind their projection clear down in 19th. The potential good news is that their take over by a Saudi Arabian consortium. Time will tell how that works out but they seem poised to pour a bunch of money into the club.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.