The O’s have played just one game – though it took forever with nearly 3 hours of rain delays – and we’re still five+ hours away from their next game, but I have some thoughts on what we saw when the rain held off to get some gameplay in. Yes, Brandon Warne gave his Opening Day thoughts as well, so I’m trying to avoid his same topics, except for Tillman.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
On Chris Tillman…
We can’t get too deep here because he threw just two innings, but they were perfect and he fanned five of the six batters he faced so it’s hard not to feel at least a little good from it, even though the excitement has to be tempered. The rain ate up him and Ervin Santana, both limited to just two innings. So I think I’ve stressed enough how we can’t overreact here, but let’s dive in just the same.
- Perhaps most impressive was Tillman’s velocity which Brooks had at 94.6 MPH on average. Even accounting for that the fact that it almost certainly would’ve come down some as he moved deeper into the outing, this is still very encouraging.
- He also worked the fastball up. In my breakdown of Tillman, I mentioned an elevated heater being key and he did that on Monday. He got four strikeouts; three on whiffs, one called. That’s huge.
- He only threw seven off-speed pitches because it was a 22-pitch outing. But he did freeze Byung-ho Park with a filthy slider:
- Positive outing for what it was, but we need at least one full start to start freaking about any sort of potential Tillman breakout.
On Manny Machado…
- He was 1-for-5 atop the order which is fine, any game you can get a knock is worthwhile, but I didn’t love the 10 pitches in five plate appearances. *Insert one more caveat that acknowledges that we’re overreacting to one game* so I’m not saying get him out of the leadoff spot or anything. It was just something I noticed during the parts of the game I watched (full disclosure: the rain delays kept me from watching start-to-finish).
- Another reason we really needn’t panic over this is the fact that he knows what he’s doing up there. He has a career .864 OPS out of the leadoff spot (including a .300/.364/.512 line last year in 496 PA) and takes 3.9 pitches per plate appearance while batting first.
- In short, I’m picking nits!
On Jonathan Schoop…
- He only saw seven pitches in his four plate appearances, but popped a double and drew a walk so it’s tough to smash for the low count.
- Fernando Abad walked him on four straight pitches in the sixth. None of ‘em were close, but Schoop has a free-swinging reputation (which is earned) so I like seeing him come out of the gate with a free pass.
- The three first pitches he swung at on the other plate appearances were all good pitches worth going after, too.
- This is a good example of why you can’t just look at the pitches per PA and decide what’s good or what’s bad. The makeup and breakdown of those pitches over the 3 or 4 PA in a given game are more important. For only seeing 7 pitches, Schoop did a helluva job.
On Mark Trumbo…
- He’s already delivering the two things this team brought him in for, base hits and stolen bases! Wait, what? Trumbo didn’t steal a single base in 2015 and went 2-for-5 in 2016, so of course he swipes a bag in his Baltimore debut!
- He’s not really much for singles, either, so dropping four in a game was an unexpected and pleasant surprise. Don’t be surprised if he stays hot, though. Trumbo’s MO is to get off to a blazing start before a fade.
- His career OPS totals by month: .826, .902, .676, .749, .728, and .692. His 27 May homers are the most in any month for him, too.
LOOKING AHEAD
The team gets Kyle Gibson tonight. He works down, down, down often below the zone and has a 53% groundball rate in 425 major league innings. This plays away from the power strengths of the O’s so they will need to be patient with him. When he’s just below the zone, he’s devastating, but get him to come in the zone and that’s when you can do damage.
Looking at Gibson’s pitches in the lower half last year, we see that he allowed just a .438 OPS out of the strike zone and an .808 OPS in the zone. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, instead relying on weak groundball contact for a ton of his outs. When’s he off, he’s really off, though. He was mostly good last year, including two solid outings v. Baltimore (one home, one away), but they had their chances as his 3.08 ERA was paired with a 1.45 WHIP.
Yovani Gallardo is on the mound for his much-anticipated Baltimore debut. I wrote about him here after the signing and I’ll definitely be watching tonight to see how it goes.
All in all, not a bad Opening Day. A Wieters walkoff made the delays worth it!
Paul Sporer is currently a contributor to FanGraphs / RotoGraphs. He has worked for/still works for Rotowire, Baseball Prospectus, Rotogrinders, The Fantasy Fix, Draft Day, and PaintTheBlack.com – his own website centered around pitching. Additionally, he’s written for several Baseball Prospectus Annuals, contributed to Rotowire’s 2015 magazine, and spoken at a couple of BaseballHQ First Pitch Arizona events. His popular starting pitching guide is available at paulsporer.com.