Ten Questions For The 2022 Orioles Minor League Season

It’s that time of year again, when the itch for baseball starts to become a bit maddening. Luckily, over at On The Verge we’re preparing to drop our Top 50 prospects list update in a couple of weeks, so even though minor league baseball is still a few months away, we have some big content coming up.

In the meantime, I decided to sit down and think about some of the bigger storylines I’m anxious to follow in the 2022 season. Here are 10 questions to sit around and ponder while we wait for baseball to begin.

1) How high will Coby Mayo climb?

Mayo won’t turn 21 until December and while there is a slight chance he starts 2022 in Delmarva for a bit (a very slight chance), it’s more likely that he begins in High-A, along with a big chunk of the 2021 draft class who he stuck with last season while playing in the FCL and Low-A Delmarva. He posted a 156 wRC+ in the FCL and a 159 wRC+ in Delmarva, while posting a sub-20% strikeout rate, a walk rate of about 13%, and making more line-drive contact and using more of the field as he moved up to full-season ball.

The 6’5” third baseman posted elite exit velos at the plate and played a very good third base, where there’s no immediate concerns of him having to move off the position. How high will he climb up the organization this year? Double-A? How high up prospect lists will he climb? Top 100 overall? How high up O’s list? Top 5? One thing that’s certain is that Mayo’s ceiling is extremely high and we haven’t even begun to see his potential as professional.

2) How much has DL Hall’s timeline been impacted?

If not for an injury that shut Hall down after just seven Double-A starts, Orioles fans would be looking at a 2022 major league roster featuring Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, and Hall at some point during the summer. Unfortunately, Hall last pitched on June 12th and didn’t start throwing a baseball again until a few weeks ago. He’s also now on the 40-man roster (along with near-MLB ready prospect Kyle Bradish), meaning he’s locked out until who knows when.

I recently wrote about the impact Hall’s return will have, but there’s a big question about exactly when Hall could make his 2022 debut. Once he does debut, how many rehab starts will he need? How long will the organization keep him in Double-A and what will his innings cap look like? I wouldn’t be surprised if Hall is eased slowly back into the fold and gets just a few Triple-A outings to close out the year, meaning a likely 2023 MLB debut instead of 2022.

3) Is there any hope of getting anything from the Manny Machado trade?

The 2021 season was yet another injury-filled campaign for Yusniel Diaz and his wRC+ of 27 in Triple-A. He has all the tools and weapons to be an effective major league outfielder, but his inability to stay on the field since joining the organization has been an issue. Even an attempt at a fresh start in the 2021 Arizona Fall League was a failed campaign that ended after a handful of at-bats due to injuries. At 25 years of age, his window is quickly closing.

Dean Kremer appeared poised to be a fixture in Baltimore’s major league rotation last season, but went 0-7 with a 7.55 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. His results in Triple-A were mixed. After throwing 2-3 effective outings, Kremer would respond with a string of clunkers that saw his demeanor, command, and whole process revert back to a version of Kremer that looked far from a major league caliber arm. He ended the year on a higher note but never showed a stretch that evoked a lot of confidence heading into 2022. Maybe a hard reset this offseason helps, but I have serious doubts.

And then there’s Rylan Bannon. An oblique injury derailed much of his season, but then there was that stretch of games where Bannon hit 10 home runs in a 10-game span in mid-August which resulted in a nod from Orioles GM Mike Elias, but nothing more. Bannon went on to hit just one home run over his final 31 games and hit a pedestrian .181 in September and .111 in three October games. It’s difficult to have much hope of seeing anything positive out of this deal at this point.

4) What do we see out of Heston Kjerstad in 2022?

It’s very simple when it comes to Kjerstand’s 2022 season. He’s a young man who is finally healthy after suffering a recurring heart issue. The fact that we get to watch him in 2022 is the biggest win here. But there will be a lot of attention placed on the 2020 first-round pick after his long layoff and high expectations coming out of the draft. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a little rust and a number of scheduled off-days early on in the year, but Kjerstad is a high-floor prospect with a long track-record of success against high-level competition during his amateur career. Once he gets the ball rolling (or rocketed into outer space), it’s possible he ends the year in High-A. Just be patient with him.

5) Is John Rhodes the sleeper of the Orioles 2021 draft class?

We know Colton Cowser and Connor Norby are impressive hitters who should rise quickly through the system, but third-round pick John Rhodes out Kentucky has received little hype since his selection and was one of the picks we at On The Verge had the most questions about in terms of what his ceiling is and how he fits into the organization.

Rhodes is a versatile defender who can play both corner infield and outfield spots and reports going into the draft loved his bat speed and hit tool potential, despite the lack of projected power. But after watching Rhodes in Delmarva, it seems like he’s the exact type of player the Orioles like to bet on. He’s young (just 21 when selected as a draft-eligible sophomore), arguably the most athletic player of the entire Orioles 2021 draft class, and has a solid base to build from. The right tweaks to his game could elevate Rhodes’ prospect status.

Outfielders Donta’ Williams and Trendon Craig and pitchers Peter Van Loon and Dylan Heid are also sleeper options to emerge as breakouts from this draft class.

6) What 2021 breakouts were for real?

Kyle Stowers started 2021 as a relative unknown with big raw power and a lot of questions about his overall game. Zach Watson was seen as a speedy, defensive outfield depth piece, sitting on the outside of every Top 30 list. Entering 2022, Stowers is viewed by most outlets as a Top 10 prospect in the league’s top farm system and Zach Watson was just two home runs shy of Rutschman’s total at the end of 2021. The Orioles are confident that his breakthrough is sustainable as he adds his name to the long list of legitimate outfield prospects.

There was also Robert Neustrom who went from someone I loved to hype up a few years ago, only to see few others match my optimism, to someone whose power tool has arrived and he garnered so much interest last season that a big chunk of Orioles fans just spent a few weeks asking why he wasn’t added to the 40-man roster in December.

On the pitching side, Jean Pinto exploded onto the scene, Zach Peek hit his K-strut way up the prospect ranks, Kyle Bradish lived up to hype Director of Player Development Matt Blood was selling, and did you happen to catch what Drew Rom did across High-A/Double-A as a 21-year-old? I could go on talking about breakout pitchers from 2021, but the Orioles are breeding a different type of pitcher now and 2022 will bring more concrete evidence as to how successful they can become and show us which breakouts were for real.

7) Who is the 2022 version of Kyle Stowers?

Stowers started 2021 in High-A and ranked anywhere from 12-20 on most major rankings. Now, it’s not hard to make an argument for him to have a roster spot over DJ Stewart and be on the Opening Day major league roster. Who becomes that breakthrough prospect in 2022?

Will it be the year of Adam Hall? Hall was drafted out of the Canadian high school ranks as a very raw player who wasn’t challenged as much as many of his peers early on in his career, and injuries haven’t helped his development. If he can stay healthy and trade in some ground balls for line drives, maybe things click for Hall in 2022.

Hudson Haskin is an interesting choice here as well. Great defense, good speed, and an unorthodox swing that works well were all on display last season. He was drafted 39th overall for a reason. But could the correct answer be Drew Rom? I recently touched on why Rom could be the major breakout prospect in 2022 and the more I think about it, the more firm I become on that stance.

8) Is this the year of the international prospect?

Easiest question of them all…yes. Pinto, Raul Rangel, Stiven Acevedo, Maikol Hernandez, Samuel Basallo, Isaac De Leon, Elio Prado, Mishael Deson, Moises Chace, Josue Cruz, Luis Ortiz, Luis Gonzalez, Moises Ramirez, Anderson De Los Santos, Junior Lara, Frederick Bencosme…do I need to keep going?

9) Should you plan a trip to see Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg?

I wouldn’t buy tickets to a Bowie or Norfolk game too far in advance if you are hoping to see one or both of these players. Both started their first full-seasons of pro ball in Low-A Delmarva and ended on Double-A Bowie’s playoff roster. Henderson overcame offensive struggles in High-A after just a few weeks, ending on a high note and finding that opposite-field home run swing that drew so much attention in Delmarva. Westburg just might be the smartest hitter in this system, and that’s saying a lot when you consider hitters like Rutschman, Terrin Vavra, and others are part of Birdland. He also earned two promotions in his first year of pro ball and finished with a beautiful stat line over his final 11 games in Bowie:

.362/.412/.638 with 8 XBH, a 182 wRC+, 8/3 K/BB, and had at least one hit in 10 of those 11 games.

So, yes you should plan to watch as many games featuring Henderson and Westburg as possible, but you better do it early. Westburg could very well make his MLB debut in 2022 and even if he doesn’t, I’d bet big money on him being an Opening Day starter in 2023 (position is TBD, but it’s because he’s good at multiple spots, not another Ryan Mountcastle situation where finding a defensive home was difficult). Henderson is still just 20 but he’s established a clear pattern- organization challenges him, he struggles for a few weeks, everything clicks and he’s begging for a new challenge.

10) Who becomes number one?

Adley Rutschman will be in the big leagues this season, as will Grayson Rodriguez. Let’s assume both prospects graduate this year. Who takes over the top spot? Does DL Hall come back healthy and make it clear that he’s the top dog? Does Colton Cowser breeze through High-A and find early success in Double-A, leading to his high-floor and proximity to the big leagues moving him up the ladder? Can Coby Mayo power his way all the way to the top? Gunnar Henderson also has an impressive resume for the position.

I’d bet the new top prospect eventually comes out of the 2022 draft. With the Orioles having the first pick in this year’s draft, Mike Elias has the opportunity to add another elite prospect to the pipeline and someone who should debut near the top of the overall Top 100. The trio of high school phenoms, Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones, and Elijah Green will all be available to Baltimore, as will high-powered college bats like Brooks Lee, Chase DeLauter, Brock Jones, and Jace Jung. It’s going to be a lot of fun to see how the top of the draft shakes out as high school and college seasons get underway in just a couple of weeks.

What questions do you hope are answered in 2022 down on the farm?