When thinking about the forthcoming season for University of Maryland’s Men’s Basketball; the obvious question to start with is, “Will there actually be a 2020-21 season?”
I don’t think anyone has a definitive answer there.
It’s certainly reasonable to have doubts.
If the year is cancelled, there will be plenty of time to address that reality and discuss further ramifications.
For our purposes here, we will take an optimistic position that there will be a season.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Appropriate Expectations?
When the 2019-20 College Basketball season abruptly ended, Maryland was 24-7 overall, including tied for a league best 14-6 in Big Ten Play. They were ranked #11 in the Coaches poll.
Since that point, plenty has changed.
Anthony Cowan’s eligibility ended.
Jalen Smith departed for the NBA.
Ricky Lindo, Serrel Smith, and Joshua Tomaic all transferred.
If the season tips off on-time, I most think people will project Maryland as a team that’s likely to look ‘bubblicious’ next March.
And those projections will be fair.
We’re going to have to see some things on the court, before any expectations can be raised.
That said, I think there is enough returning talent, and enough talent coming in; that there’s a punchers chance for Maryland to surprise.
As of today, I’m thinking there is a:
50% chance on Maryland making the NCAA Tournament.
25% chance on Maryland on ending the season in the Top 25.
10% chance on Maryland factoring in the Big Ten Regular Season Title race.
What Do We Like?
– In Eric Ayala, Aaron Wiggins, Darryl Morsell, and Donta Scott; Maryland has four starters with a lot of experience.
– Ayala, and Wiggins regressed as Sophomores, but they had big-time shooting numbers as Freshman (albeit with a shorter 3 point line). Both have real ability, with Wiggins in-particular having the talent to contend for All Big-Ten Honors.
– Baltimore’s Morsell has improved every year of his career and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He brings energy, he aggressively plays defense, and shows leadership traits. Maryland feeds off of his personality, and I expect he’ll have a strong Senior year leaving everything he has out on the floor.
– Scott is not going to overwhelm you, but he does a lot of things that helps a team win. He scored in double-figures in 5 of Maryland’s last 8 games. We like him in-general. It’s also reasonable to think his game will have been refined going into his Sophomore season.
– If eligible, incoming Boston College transfer Jairus Hamilton should help MD in multiple ways. Added length, some scoring punch. Him being eligible (or not) will swing Maryland’s ceiling.
– Alabama transfer Galin Smith has major college experience, and by all accounts is willing to rebound, and defend. Do those things effectively, and it will help.
– I get the sense Maryland fans are fairly lukewarm on incoming Freshman guards Marcus Dockery and Aquan Smart. I think each of the 3 star Combo Guards have a chance to help. Dockery looks to me to have a good shot, and Smart seems like a late-bloomer with plus athleticism, and a attacking mentality. Competition is a good thing. They should get the chance to go at each other often. Who emerges?
– Have zero idea if Freshman big Arnaud Revaz will be ready to bang with experienced bodies in the Big Ten. With the limitations Maryland has in the front-court, I was just happy to add another option. The video shows nice athleticism. The bio says he hasn’t been playing the game long. The plus to that, is that it should mean there is additional ceiling there as he receives further coaching and is developed. If you can put him on the floor, and he’s willing to compete… that will do just fine for Year 1.
Questions We Have
– Hakim Hart was a 3 star prospect out of Philadelphia. He seemed very raw as a Freshman. With a year under his belt, and more playing time available; is he ready to be a regular rotation piece?
– As we said above, we like Ayala and Wiggins. We think both have real ability. But as we also said above, both regressed last year. Are they ready to lead the team, and bring it consistently?
– Dockery and Smart could potentially help the rotation. They could also be out of their depth, especially as Freshman, and borderline unplayable. Maryland needs one of them, to be usable behind Ayala. Both are Combo Guards, and not pure PG’s. So not only will they be adjusting to college, they will be adjusting to playing the 1. Are they up to it?
– The scoring punch on this team seems suspect, more so if Hamilton is not eligible.
– If Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey and Head Coach Mike D’Antoni were running the Terrapins… Maryland would run. They’d look at the roster, and say forget about the ‘bigs’ and say we’re putting our best shooters on the floor, going to space things out, and attack teams that way. How will Coach Turgeon utilize his roster? History says Turgeon will stick with his approach more than adapting to what he has.
The Wildcard
– As Raphielle Johsnon wrote two months ago, Chol Marial is Maryland’s biggest storyline.
Given who he was playing against, I’m not going to make too much out of this:
It was encouraging regardless of who he was playing against though.
He needs to play, play, play. Hopefully he’s been running 5v5 all summer. Finding games everywhere.
There’s a non-zero percent chance that he’s a dominant force for Maryland in ’20-’21, and finds himself moving on NBA 2021 Draft lists.
There’s also the reality that he’s missed a lot of time the last few seasons, going back to his High School years, and including being limited to just 12 games as Freshman for Maryland.
The 10% chance I give Maryland of factoring into the Big Ten Regular Season race? That comes with a best case scenario year for Marial.
What Comes After 2020-21?
Increased expectations.
Why?
Because Coach Turgeon is putting together a very strong Class of ’21.
He’s received verbals from:
Julian Reese, 4 star, PF
Ike Cornish, 4 star, SG
& most recently
James Graham, 4 star, SF
Maryland’s Class of ’21 is currently ranked 4th in the Big Ten, and 9th Nationally.
It’s a good enough class, that I think we can confidently say that even if ’20-’21 Maryland is on the wrong side of the bubble, Turgeon will definitely be on the sidelines for ’21-’22.
So, what could the ’21-‘22 roster as a whole look like?
Maryland loses Morsell, Smith, and Reese Mona (recently awarded a scholarship) after ’20-’21.
Everyone else could be back.
Something like:
1) Ayala, Dockery, Smith
2) Wiggins, Cornish, Hart
3) Hamilton, Graham
4) Scott, Reese
5) Marial, Revaz
That’s a team that would have a chance to be really good.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.