I’m of the opinion that it should be realistic for the Baltimore Orioles to be spending $145M +/- on their 2022 payroll. You can see my rationale at the highlighted link, but the long and short is that they have the revenue to do so, and $145M in ’22 is only approximately 75% (after factoring in inflation) of the Orioles previously established max payroll.

If the Orioles were willing to spend $145M, they’d be in great position to take advantage of a Free Agent class which matches up well with their needs. They’d be significantly improved for ’22, and well positioned for ’23.

But alas, while I am confident the Orioles will ramp up their spending in the coming years – I think that climb is going to be slower, and take longer than I believe it should.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

So, what’s the absolute minimum that should be expected from the Orioles this coming year?

Jon Meoli from The Baltimore Sun recently estimated the Orioles ’22 Opening Day salary without external additions at $54M (inclusive of deferred payments to Chris Davis).

Let’s use that salary estimate as the starting point.

What will it take the Orioles this coming year to reach basic competency?

Whatever the answer is to that question, is also the answer to the question, “What is the absolute minimum that should be expected from the ’22 O’s?”

The Orioles have a Major League worst 5.82 era entering tonight.
The Orioles are 27th overall in runs scored.

Quite the combo!

Cedric Mullins is obviously your CF.

Adley Rutschman is going to be your C by June.

Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle are going to hold down 1st, and DH.

Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander are highly likely to get further run on the corners.

Jahmai Jones, Terrin Vavra, and Rylan Bannon are all likely to get time at 2nd; and we will see if one emerges.

Jordan Westburg (and also maybe Gunnar Henderson) could be getting time at SS or 3rd in the Majors at some point next year.

Basically your positional core is set for another year; depending on what you do at SS and 3rd. So your ability to score, is going to largely come from what exists internally.

Let’s go back to the pitching staff.

Jorge Lopez has a 6.35 era over 25 starts.
Matt Harvey has a 6.25 era over 24 starts.
Spencer Watkins has made 8 starts.
Tom Eschelman has made 5 starts.

That can’t happen again.

Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer were disasters over their combined 23 starts; but there is talent and youth there. Handing them the ball, and giving them opportunities made all the sense in the world.

And next year, you are going to hope that out of Akin / Kremer / Baumann / Lowther / Zimmermann / Wells / Bradish / Smith / Rom / Knight (Group of 10) that you can find 1-2 usable rotation arms, and 1-2 usable relievers.

You are going to expect that Grayson Rodriguez joins the rotation by June.

DL Hall has the ability to be in the Majors next year, but his lack of innings at the MiL level (just 31.2 this year) are likely to prevent a quick ascent.

Certainly the Orioles will continue to lean on John Means.

So, Means, 1-2 from the Group of 10, and Rodriguez by June; and what else?

Or more to the point, who else?

If the Orioles want to become competent in ’22, the quickest way possible is improving the rotation. In my opinion, the Orioles need at-least two viable starting pitchers.

2022 versions of Wei-Yin Chen, and Miguel Gonzalez would go a long way towards finding respectability.

Nothing is a lock in life, but if you want to improve the rotation; you need arms you can confidently rely on. The best indicator of future results is what they’ve done previously. Can the Orioles find two mid-rotation arms they can feel confident about?

Again, let’s say the Orioles starting payroll to begin ’22 without external additions is around $54M.

Let’s say that hypothetically the Orioles are willing to go to $90M on their ’22 payroll.

Who should the Orioles target?

Here’s a listing of Free Agent Starting Pitchers that will be available.

I’d set my sights on Zach Davies, and Alex Wood.

Davies – the right-handed former Oriole prospect – is now 28 years old, and has an era over 5 this year for the Cubs. The peripherals aren’t exciting, but he’s now made 149 starts in the Majors, and has a career 3.99 era over 810.1 Major League innings.

Davies made $8.6M this year.

Wood is a 30 year old lefty, who has had a solid year for the Giants. He’s allowing less than a hit per IP, and averaging more than a K per IP.

Wood is on a bargain contract of $3M this year.

Davies and Wood aren’t going to set the market on fire, but plenty will have interest in them because of that as well. They’re legitimate Major League caliber starters.

If the Orioles are willing to take their salary to $90M, the O’s could try and be aggressive with both.

Offer Davies 2 years $25M ($12.5M AAV) with a team option, and offer Wood 3 years $45M ($15M AAV).

Let’s say you landed both, and added $27.5M to your salary.

$54M + $27.5M = $81.5M.

In our hypothetical here, the Orioles have $8.5M to play with to reach their would-be $90M threshold.

In that case, I’d like to add another reliever or two I could depend on.
I’d have interest in Archie Bradley, but he’s likely a bit too expensive at that point.

A reunion with Mychal Givens could work. Givens made $4M this year. Let’s call it 2 years, $9M ($4.5M AAV).

And how about Joakim Soria for 1 year, $4M?

If you don’t sign Soria, you have that $4M for SS and 3rd.
Freddy Galvis has yet to play with Philadelphia since being traded. The Orioles signed him to a 1 year $1.5M deal before this year. Maikel Franco is on a 1 year $800k deal.

You could go with Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias at SS, and Bannon at 3rd to begin ’22. Or you could bring in similar options to Galvis and Franco. Or actually Galvis and Franco.

Where would that leave the O’s going into ’22?

OD

Catcher: Severino
1st: Mancini
2nd: Jones
SS: Mateo
3rd: Bannon
LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF: Santander
DH: Mountcastle

Bench: Wynns, Urias, Stewart, UTI
Rotation: Means, Wood, Davies

4/5: Zimmermann, Akin, Kremer, Bradish, Smith, Lowther, Baumann, Wells
Bullpen: Givens, Soria, Harvey, Scott, Tate, Fry
Other: Sulser, T. Wells, Lopez, 4/5 starter options above

By June 1st: 

Rutschman takes over at C
Rodriguez joins the rotation
What are Westburg, and Henderson doing at Bowie?
What is Hall doing? Where is his health?

That’s a 60-70 win team, so let’s call it 65 wins.

65 wins after this ’21 season would feel like an improved product.
Wood and Davies would significantly improve the rotation.
Givens and Soria would help the bullpen (‘pen also helped by an improved rotation).

Not perfect, but better, and closer to basic competency.
This is the absolute minimum that should be expected from the ’22 Orioles.


Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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