What replaces it is a 43-year-old first-time head coach who calls his own defense, a 30-year-old coordinator who will call his first NFL offense from the booth, and a two-time MVP entering Year 9 off the least productive full season of his prime.

Clay’s model grades this the second-best roster in football. The market set the win total at 11.5, tied with the Rams for the highest on the board. The staff has never coached a game together. That combination is why this is a hard team to project in some ways, and why this preview contains a lot of open questions for a team with real expectations.

Minter & Co.

Jesse Minter inherits more pressure than any first-year coach in the league, because the mandate isn’t “make the playoffs.” Baltimore does that. The mandate is to win once they get there.

Minter finished third among all defensive play callers in CBS’s poll of twelve writers behind only Mike Macdonald and Steve Spagnuolo, ahead of Vic Fangio and Brian Flores. He’ll call it himself, which matters for a reason beyond scheme: the buck stops with him now. One of the more tiring recurring features of the Harbaugh era was how often he absolved himself of his coordinators’ decisions. That option no longer exists. Anthony Weaver handles the front seven, Mike Mickens the secondary.

Declan Doyle drew zero votes in that same poll. He is 30, was Ben Johnson’s coordinator in Chicago last season, coached tight ends in Denver, and came up in New Orleans from 2019 to 2022. His influences are Sean Payton and Johnson, which on paper means pairing Payton’s downhill duo runs with Johnson’s outside zone a fit for Derrick Henry as clean as anything you could draw. He’ll call plays from the booth, with Weaver and Minter splitting sideline duties.

We left this staff off our top-ten coaching staffs, and we want to restate why, because that’s the sort of omission a Baltimore site gets accused of underthinking. Half a staff isn’t a staff. Minter has never been a head coach. Doyle has never called an NFL offense. They’ve never worked a game together. And being great at X’s and O’s – which Minter unambiguously is – is not the same skill as keeping a room rowing in the same direction after a bad October. A coordinator’s job is scheme. A head coach’s job is everyone pulling the same way when things go sideways. This group could be top-five by December. It hasn’t earned the ranking in August.

What Minter’s Defense Actually Looks Like

This is the part of the preview that got written everywhere, including by us. “Fast, violent, aggressive” is what every new staff says. Here we look at what the tape and the tracking data actually say.

The year before Minter arrived in Los Angeles, the Chargers ranked 30th in passing yards allowed at 249.8 per game, 24th in points allowed at 23.4, and 27th in yards per play at 5.5. Derwin James had the worst season of his career. Over Minter’s two years running it, that unit finished fifth in passing yards allowed at 193.4, third in points at 19.9, and seventh in yards per play at 5.2 — back-to-back top-ten defenses by EPA, with James returning to consecutive Pro Bowls.

He runs a 3-4 built on versatility, and the governing idea is to muddy the picture for the offense while keeping it simple for his own players. The tracking data describes something close to the opposite of what “aggressive” usually implies. Per Next Gen Stats, the 2025 Chargers played zone on 80.7 percent of snaps (fifth-highest), used split-safety looks on 49.6 percent (fourth-most, a hair ahead of Macdonald’s Seahawks), rushed four on 72.6 percent, and blitzed on just 21.4 percent — third-fewest in football. The personnel is the tell: nickel only 55.2 percent of the time, eighth-lowest in the league, because they were in dime at the third-highest rate. While most of the NFL pivoted toward heavier personnel, Minter went the other way and dared offenses to run into it.

So the identity is this: Minter isn’t trying to trick you with exotic pressure. He gives you a clean look, rushes four, plays zone with two safeties deep, and bets his defensive backs win. As Russell Street Report put it, that only works if the defensive backs are elite.

The hinge is the hybrid safety. Minter used James near the box on roughly 85 percent of snaps, and when the Chargers blitzed, James was often the one coming — 12.9 percent of his own snaps, and fifth on the team in pressures. Minter’s explanation, from when he arrived in Los Angeles, is the sentence to memorize: the closer he is to the action, the better he is. The flexibility was the point — maybe it’s three corners and he’s the safety, maybe two safeties and he’s the nickel, maybe he’s the dime.

Now consider that Minter, a former Ravens defensive backs coach for four seasons, studied Kyle Hamilton extensively before taking the Chargers job and is now inheriting him. Hamilton graded 86.3 at PFF in 2025, third among all safeties, and has a credible claim to being a more versatile version of what James was asked to do. Baltimore has spent three years arguing about how to use him; the answer just walked in with two years of film on exactly that question.

Two more notes. Minter does keep a change-up: over the Chargers’ final six weeks he called 13 Cover 0 blitzes, and quarterbacks went 3-for-10 for 23 yards with an interception, two sacks and seven pressures – low usage, high leverage, a tendency breaker rather than an identity. And the front he ran was a four-down look with two large interior bodies and stout edges, a near-exact description of what Baltimore is handing him.

A scheme that rushes four, plays two-high zone, and dares you to complete underneath throws requires corners who can cover without help. Clay grades Baltimore’s corner room a 5. The safeties are the best-graded unit at any position on any roster in football; the corners are the position where this defense is most likely to break. Minter’s system will amplify whichever of those two facts turns out to matter more.

There is one happy accident in the fit, though: a defense that plays dime at the third-highest rate in the league doesn’t need four good linebackers. Baltimore’s linebacker room also grades a 5. Minter’s preferred personnel quietly hides that.

Why Did The Defense Fall Off? Is It Fixed?

Baltimore’s defense went from sixth in DVOA in 2024 to 16th in 2025. Zach Orr absorbed most of the criticism and the Ravens moved on, which we supported — not only because we think the new staff is better, but because it lets the fanbase turn the page.

But the diagnosis matters, because it determines whether Minter is fixing a scheme or inheriting an already-solved personnel problem. The 2025 defense played without Madubuike for fifteen games, had no legitimate edge rusher, and got a compromised Wiggins and Humphrey in the secondary. Madubuike is back, Hendrickson is here, Wiggins is healthy. If that was the disease, most of the cure arrived in March, before Minter called a play. That’s the optimistic read and the one we lean toward — with the caveat that bad personnel and bad scheme aren’t mutually exclusive, and we won’t know the split until October.

Mandatory Lamar Talk

Obviously nothing matters more.

The 2025 line: 21 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 2,549 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt, a 103.8 rating, 15th in EPA per dropback, 19th in success rate, 14th in completion percentage over expectation. Perfectly good. Nowhere near what he’d been.

Jackson opened completing better than 70 percent at 9.1 yards per attempt with a 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Then he hurt his hamstring. After he returned he was visibly slower, scrambled less, held the ball longer and stopped pushing it downfield. Steven Ruiz’s read at The Ringer was that the decision-making itself looked like a function of the health. He went 6-7 in his 13 starts, averaged 196.1 passing yards a game, and averaged 26.8 rushing yards a game – roughly half his 2024 figure.

That’s an argument for a rebound – which is why the same outlet ranked Jackson the third-best quarterback in football. PFF lands in the same place from the other direction, and suggests the recovery was underway before the season ended: Jackson graded 91.4 over his final four games, a year removed from a 94.0 grade and a 41-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

So the film read and the grades agree. The disagreement is with the third group. What Sando’s voters and the players’ Top 100. The opposing coach in Sando’s poll who said he wasn’t sure how much Jackson still wants to run and take hits is making a claim about a 29-year-old’s willingness to absorb punishment, which no amount of healing fixes and which wouldn’t show up as a bad grade. Sando’s stated reason for the demotion was the halved rushing production, not the missed games. The players’ Top 100 dropped him 67 spots, to 69th, which is peer evaluation rather than a model and stings a bit. On the other-hand, I don’t think the players vote has much accuracy year to year. The anonymous coach in Sando’s poll sounds like like of the doubters that have persisted over Jackson’s career to-date. A lot of consistent chirping from some.

If the dip was just the hamstring, Jackson is a top-three quarterback again the moment he’s healthy and this is a genuine Super Bowl roster. If it was the start of a deliberate recalibration – fewer designed runs, fewer scrambles, more time in a pocket fronted by an interior line that’s still a projection – then he’s good but no longer the player who breaks games open, and Doyle’s work becomes a necessity rather than an enhancement. Both view points look defendable in August. We will see which plays out.

The plainest question is the one we asked three weeks ago and still can’t answer: does he play 16 or 17 games, or 12 or 13? He’s been limited to 13 or fewer in three of five seasons. Clay projects 671 rushing yards on 122 carries. Doyle’s first job is making him a run threat without making him a target.

Jackson has won MVP in the first season under each of his last two new coordinators – unanimously under Greg Roman in 2019, only the second unanimous winner in league history, and again under Todd Monken in 2023. Twenty-two teams open 2026 with a new offensive coordinator. No quarterback in football has a better track record with one.

Doyle’s Offense?

Jackson has taken five percent of his career snaps there. His 226 under-center snaps since 2018 are the second-fewest of any quarterback with 50 starts, behind only Kyler Murray. Over those same eight seasons he has posted the highest QBR in the NFL from under center 81.2, with 20 touchdowns and one interception. It is simultaneously the least-used and most productive part of his game, and Doyle has him there more than any previous camp.

PFF expects Doyle to lean on three-receiver sets with plenty of motion, which is what you’d predict from a Payton and Ben Johnson product. Clay’s model, meanwhile, has Baltimore first in rushing attempts and dead last in pass attempts. Those can coexist. You can run heavily out of 11 personnel, and Johnson did exactly that in Detroit but they point in different directions, and which one Doyle actually is determines whether the receiver room is a problem or a non-issue. If Baltimore is in 11 personnel on 65 percent of snaps, the receiver depth questions matter a lot.

Neither transition has been clean. The offense false-started eight times in one August practice varying cadences, and Jackson spiked his helmet after a two-minute drill ran out of clock. But he attended voluntary spring work to get ahead of the installation, has called Doyle a wizard, and says he’s absolutely ready.

The Roster: What’s Real? What’s Still A Projection?

Clay grades this the second-best roster in football with the No. 5 offense, No. 4 defense, 430 points scored and 340 allowed, first in rushing attempts and rushing yards, dead last in pass attempts.

RB

Derrick Henry is projected for 317 carries, 1,482 yards and 13 touchdowns at 32, and the people expecting a cliff should note his 5.2 yards per carry last year was still above his 4.9 career average and tied James Cook for the best mark among backs with 250-plus carries behind worse blocking and a diminished quarterback. The seven fumbles across two seasons, a third of his career total, reads fluky to us rather than alarming.

The real question is workload philosophy. Justice Hill was limited to ten games and his catches fell from 42 to 21; Adam Randall went to IR during cuts, leaving Henry, Hill and Rasheen Ali. Should holding Henry under 300 carries even be a goal? There’s a version where you protect him for January and a version where the physicality is the plan. Doyle’s answer says a lot about how he sees the offense.

And a loss getting too little attention: Patrick Ricard, a three-time All-Pro, followed Harbaugh to the Giants. Fullbacks are devalued league-wide and Baltimore has long profited from the contrarian position — it’s helped the run game, the quarterback, and the physicality this team is built on.

Receiver and Tight End

Both grade a 5. Flowers got $35 million a year. Everyone likes Flowers. Everyone would like him considerably more as a No. 2.

Flowers was the only Baltimore wide receiver last season to record more than 22 receptions or 330 receiving yards.

Rashod Bateman gave the Ravens nothing in 2025 after ankle injuries, and that can’t repeat in ’26. In 2024 he played all 17 games and averaged 16.8 yards on 45 catches with nine scores. He needs to be available and move the chains. And there’s a complication beyond football: Bateman was arrested in Georgia in June and faces charges of family violence battery, reckless conduct and first-degree criminal damage to property stemming from an alleged incident involving the mother of his child. His attorney has said the situation was taken out of context and that the facts will come out through the court process, and the case is pending. The Ravens have notified the league and say they’re cooperating. Separately from the courts, the NFL’s baseline discipline for a first offense in this category is six games, though circumstances vary. Nobody should be forecasting an outcome. Everybody should understand that Baltimore’s WR2 has a real chance of missing time for reasons that have nothing to do with his hamstrings.

Mark Andrews is 31 and coming off a year where his yards per catch fell from a 12.3 career average to 8.8. We’re glad to have him, though we’d have kept Isaiah Likely if forced to choose, and losing Charlie Kolar stung. Fifty catches and 600 yards wouldn’t surprise us. Neither would a bounce toward his career ypc norms, since a good chunk of last year’s decline tracks with the quarterback throwing him the ball.

Which brings us to the group that has to fill the gap.

Ja’Kobi Lane has been the story of camp. The third-rounder at No. 80 out of USC is 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, wins 50-50 balls, and provides the size-skill combination this offense has spent Jackson’s entire career looking for on the outside. Crucially, he isn’t doing it against backups – a team source told CBS’s Matt Zenitz that within the first week of camp Lane was already a starter in 11 personnel and the club’s No. 3 receiver. The caveat came from the same source, and it’s the right one: it’s camp, and we’ll see what he does when the season starts. August produces a breakout star every year. The pre-draft knock was his ability to play through contact, let’s see if that’s an issue when the lights turn on.

Elijah Sarratt, the fourth-rounder at No. 115 out of Indiana, is the one we liked most on tape and the one furthest from contributing. He averaged at least 2.00 yards per route run in all four of his college seasons, which is a genuinely difficult thing to do, and he graded 86.1 at PFF last year – the best mark in Baltimore’s draft class. He also spent camp, by the team’s own description, starting from ground zero. That’s normal for a Day 3 receiver, and why you can only expect so much from him this year.

Devontez Walker is the wild card, in that he’s now in Year 3 and has been targeted ten times in his NFL career. He caught four touchdowns on those ten targets, which is a fun rate and a meaningless sample. The big-play ability has flashed in each of his first two seasons. How many snaps does he get this year? Can he become a reliable target?

The tight ends are deeper than the grade suggests, and this is where Doyle’s Ben Johnson lineage may show up. Durham Smythe was signed to be the traditional in-line blocker opposite Andrews, which matters more than his 44.7 PFF grade or his 13 total receptions across the last two seasons – though he did average 27.5 catches a year from 2020 through 2023, so a modest bump wouldn’t shock. Matthew Hibner is the interesting one: Baltimore traded up in the fourth round for him and believes he’s ready for an immediate role as a pass catcher. Josh Cuevas, the fifth-rounder, graded 69.6 and is the developmental piece. Johnson built his Detroit offenses around tight end usage; Doyle spent last season with him and coached the position in Denver.

Exactly three players on this roster have ever caught more than ten passes from Lamar Jackson. Flowers, Bateman, Andrews. And one of those three is 31 and coming off his worst year, while another has a pending court case.

Getting Out Ahead Of The Argument

Jackson is going to wear the Superman cape. That’s what he does – he elevates the people around him, and he’ll make three or four throws a month that no other quarterback in football makes to receivers no other team would start. Some of these guys are going to look better than they are because of him. That’s not a criticism; it’s the single best argument for optimism on this roster.

The pessimistic argument looks like this. Bateman doesn’t rebound, or isn’t available. Andrews stays a 600-yard tight end. Lane is a rookie who has rookie weeks. And Jackson, protecting a 29-year-old body, doesn’t get back to running the way he did in 2024. None of that requires anything to go catastrophically wrong. Every one of those is a reasonable outcome on its own, and together they describe an offense that grinds. A team that wins 20-17 behind Henry and a good defense, converts third-and-4 instead of hitting the 40-yard shot, and looks nothing like the unit that put up 28 to 30 a game in 2023 and 2024.

That offense can still be plenty good enough to win eleven games, but may often feel not good enough. And here’s the thing worth noticing now: even the bull case agrees. Clay’s model – which again grades this the second-best roster in football – projects Baltimore for 430 points. That’s 25.3 a game. Four to five points a game below the 2023 and 2024 versions, from the projection system that likes this team most.

So if the offense looks pedestrian in October, the finger is going to point at Jackson. It always does. The MVP is the most expensive and most visible player on the field, and “he’s not the same” is the easiest column in sports to write. Our question, when it happens, will be a simple one: given the weapons around him, should we have expected more?

Flowers is a very good No. 2 being paid as a No. 1. Behind him is a receiver with a pending court case, a 31-year-old tight end coming off his worst season, a rookie who has been great in shorts, and a third-year player with ten career targets. Set against that, an offense that scores 25 a game and wins the division is not a quarterback failing.  Also, if we’re going to say that Jackson has to again be Superman, than it’s fair to say that this offense fully needs Henry to again be Batman.

Offensive Line

This is where the projection is thinnest, and it got shakier in the last two weeks.

The center job is still open. Danny Pinter suffered a season-ending knee injury in joint practices with Minnesota, and Minter said this week he hasn’t decided between Ethan Pocic and Jovaughn Gwyn. Gwyn started the final two preseason games; Pocic played 31 snaps to Gwyn’s 15. Pocic turned 31, is coming off a Week 14 Achilles tear, has never played a full 17-game season, and didn’t practice Monday. He’s also graded above 60.0 at PFF in each of the last five seasons, so the floor is real. The ceiling isn’t Tyler Linderbaum, who ranked fifth among all centers last year and is now a Raider.

John Simpson is back at left guard, where league-average would be a win if he can cut the penalties — he graded 56.9 last season but ranked 11th among all guards at 77.3 in 2024. Year 11 of Ronnie Stanley is still something to feel fine about, though his drop-off from 2024 to 2025 came specifically in pass protection, which loops back to whether Doyle can get the ball out faster. Baltimore also hired Dwayne Ledford as offensive line coach and run game coordinator, which given how much of this group is new may matter as much as any individual signing.

Ronnie Stanley is the piece everything else leans on. In 2024 he was excellent: an 80.9 PFF pass-blocking grade, the sixth time he’d cleared 80 in his career, and just two sacks allowed across 535 pass-blocking snaps, which ranked 11th among full-time starting tackles. That season is also why the Ravens’ left-side run game was the best in football – Baltimore led the NFL in yards on outside and off-tackle runs to the left and averaged nearly seven a carry there. Stanley isn’t just protecting Jackson’s blind side; he’s the reason a chunk of Henry’s production exists.

In 2025 that slipped. He graded 70.9 overall, 35th among 89 qualified tackles, with a 72.8 pass-blocking grade and 68.0 in the run game, allowing 28 pressures including four sacks and four hits, with seven penalties. Not bad. Just ordinary, from a player who has been considerably better than ordinary. The encouraging part is buried in the same numbers: he played 857 snaps. For a tackle whose career was nearly derailed by ankle injuries and who missed enormous stretches from 2020 through 2022, availability is the harder problem, and he solved it. He is 32, entering Year 11, on a three-year, $60 million deal with $44 million guaranteed and a manageable $9.9 million cap hit this season.

So: does the pass protection come back? Part of the answer isn’t his. Stanley’s game is built on giving ground while maintaining his mirror, which works beautifully with a quarterback who gets the ball out and less well with one holding it and hunting a play. Jackson held the ball longer after the hamstring injury, and Stanley’s numbers moved in exactly the direction you’d expect. If Doyle’s offense speeds up the release – under center, on schedule, off play-action – Stanley’s grade probably recovers without him doing anything differently. It’s difficult, because Jackson extending plays is also part of what makes him great.

The right side is the interesting part. Olaivavega “Vega” Ioane at No. 14 was the most popular mock-draft pairing of the spring for good reason, and the bar he has to clear is embarrassingly low as both of Baltimore’s 2025 starting guards graded below 60.0 at PFF. He’s 6-foot-4 and 326 pounds, calls himself a mauler, and DeCosta described him as straight from central casting. The scouting consensus had him as the best interior lineman in the class and, for some evaluators, the best offensive lineman in it full stop. He allowed zero sacks in 2025 playing mostly left guard at Penn State, was penalized three times in 2024, and the traits that travel are the ones this offense specifically needs: a stout anchor that stalls bull rushes on the spot, powerful jump sets, and enough short-area quickness to climb to the second level. That last part is the fit with Doyle’s duo-and-outside-zone marriage. Lamar Jackson was sacked 36 times last season; the pick was a statement about that.

Which brings us to Roger Rosengarten, who might be the quietest important player on the roster. A 2024 second-round pick out of Washington who started every game of the Huskies’ national title run, he has spent his first two NFL seasons lining up next to a failed guard experiment in Daniel Faalele, a converted tackle who never took to the position. Rosengarten has never had a real right guard. Now he has a first-rounder there, and the early returns on the pairing have been effusive. He’s called Ioane a stud and said it feels like they’ve played together three or four years, crediting the rookie’s movement skills and balance with making combination blocks and pass protection easier. With Linderbaum gone and so much of the room turned over, Rosengarten and Stanley have also become the leadership of this unit, which is a lot to ask of a third-year player. If he takes a Year 3 step in the run game and the right side becomes a strength rather than a patch, a group we’ve called “not upper-echelon” gets a good deal more interesting.

The Front Seven

Trey Hendrickson grades an 8, had back-to-back 17.5-sack seasons in 2023 and 2024, and the PFF numbers on him are striking: a pass-rush win rate of 20 percent or better in each of the last three seasons, which no Ravens edge defender has managed since PFF began collecting the data in 2006, and a pass-rush grade above 90.0 in each of those years, which no Raven has done since Dumervil in 2013. He is the pass rusher this franchise has lacked for a decade.

He is also 31, missed ten games last season, had core muscle surgery in December, and Clay projects only 9.9 sacks. The March criticism was that he doesn’t set an edge the way Maxx Crosby does. That’s fair, but second-rounder Zion Young posted an 86.6 PFF run-defense grade in college and could take real early-down snaps precisely to cover that weakness.

Edge still grades a 5, which should worry people more than it does. Behind Hendrickson it’s Mike Green, our breakout pick, coming off 3.5 rookie sacks with a 4.7 projection; double digits from him is the swing outcome for this defense. Inside, Madubuike and Travis Jones grade 8 and Calais Campbell a 7, entering Year 19 and turning 40 this week after an awful personal summer. Keeping him available for January is the whole point of the signing.

Tavius Robinson is the third rusher. The 2023 fourth-rounder out of Ole Miss broke his foot in the Week 6 loss to the Rams, went on injured reserve, missed seven games, and returned in Week 15 against Cincinnati – where he immediately produced a sack that pushed the Bengals out of field-goal range and the pressure that forced Burrow into a game-sealing pick-six. He finished with 4.5 sacks in ten games across 447 snaps, the second-most sacks on the roster.

Travis Jones is the one certainty here, and that’s new. For three years he was a run-stuffing nose who flashed. In 2025, with Madubuike gone, he became the best defensive lineman on the roster and one of the best in football at the position. He graded 79.2 at PFF, second on the entire defense behind only Hamilton, and led every Ravens defender in pressures (47), sacks (five) and run-defense grade (81.1). He set career highs in tackles (47), tackles for loss (nine) and quarterback hits (nine) while playing 16 games. PFF called him a secret superstar. Baltimore signed him to a three-year, $40.5 million extension in December, and he’s 26. He is also coming back from a pectoral injury that put him on PUP in July, which is worth monitoring but isn’t the concern of this group.

Madubuike is. And nobody is sure what the Ravens are getting here. That leads to a wide range of possible outcomes.

From the start of 2023 until he went on injured reserve in September 2025, Madubuike’s 21.5 sacks were the most of any defensive tackle in the NFL. He had 13 in 2023, which led all interior linemen and earned him a four-year, $98 million extension. He followed it with 6.5 sacks and 56 pressures in 2024 – third among all defensive tackles and a second straight Pro Bowl. He has a team-high 69 quarterback hits since entering the league in 2020. He had played 55 consecutive games. Paired with Hendrickson, that’s an interior-plus-edge combination Baltimore hasn’t had in a decade, and it’s most of the reason Clay grades this the top interior line in football.

The uncertainty is genuine and it is not the usual injury boilerplate. Madubuike hurt his neck in Week 2 of 2025, against Cleveland on September 14th. The injury was described as potentially career-threatening, and there were real retirement rumors attached to it. He played 102 snaps last season. He did not have surgery until mid-April more than seven months after the injury which is an unusual timeline and one nobody has fully explained. He was cleared to return to football activity by independent spine and cervical specialists, which is a meaningful hurdle cleared rather than a formality. He opened camp on PUP for conditioning. And per Minter, he did not take a single 11-on-11 rep during training camp.

So the range runs from “an All-Pro interior rusher walks back into a front that already has Hendrickson, Jones and Campbell, and this defense is top-five” to “a 28-year-old works his way back on a snap count, is a rotational contributor into October, and is never quite the same explosive player.” Both are plausible right now. The Ravens’ one real signal is that they kept him off injured reserve at cuts, which would have cost him four games — Minter said he doesn’t see Madubuike missing anything like that. That’s a vote of confidence with money behind it.

What makes this the season’s quietest swing factor is the scheme fit. Minter doesn’t blitz; he rushes four on nearly three-quarters of snaps and asks his front to win one-on-one so the coverage can stay intact behind it. Unlike a traditional 3-4 where the ends funnel the quarterback outward, Minter wants active hands and feet inside, getting free and into the backfield — which is precisely what a healthy Madubuike does better than almost anyone. A four-man rush that generates pressure without help is the load-bearing assumption of the entire defense. Madubuike at his 2023 level makes that assumption safe. Madubuike at 60 percent makes it a question, and pushes more of the burden onto a corner room that grades a 5.

The rest of the interior is deeper than people realize, which is the hedge. Campbell grades a 7 entering Year 19, turning 40 this week after an awful personal summer; keeping him available for January is the whole point of the signing. And John Jenkins, 37, quietly had a fine 2025 as he didn’t miss a game and logged 523 defensive snaps, more than any Baltimore lineman except Jones. Broderick Washington adds beef. Baltimore can survive a slow Madubuike ramp. It just can’t reach its ceiling without him.

Roquan Smith was voted the second-best off-ball linebacker in football by NFL executives, coaches and scouts. The position group grades a 5. Both can be true if the depth behind him is thin, and it is. It’s Year 4 for Trenton Simpson, who has an opening and hasn’t yet taken it. Teddye Buchanan was kept off injured reserve as he works back from a December ACL tear — worth watching, because after taking over as a starter in Week 2 as a rookie he graded above 60.0 in five of his final six games and ranked 31st among linebackers in run-defense grade. As noted above, Minter’s dime-heavy tendencies reduce how much this matters. It doesn’t eliminate it.

Secondary

Hamilton, Malaki Starks, Jaylinn Hawkins. The best-graded unit at any position on any roster in the league, and the exact profile – long, versatile, zone-friendly, football-smart – that Minter has built defenses around his entire career. Hawkins arrived in free agency off a 74.9 PFF grade.

Nate Wiggins is in Year 3 after playing most of last season’s second half through a groin injury, and has reportedly had a strong camp with added strength. He doesn’t have to lock down half the field; he does have to take the opponent’s best receiver each week. Marlon Humphrey, in Year 10, got targeted relentlessly in 2025. He’s a two-time All-Pro who no longer has to lead the group, but a rebound would raise the ceiling of this group. Chidobe Awuzie starts outside, T.J. Tampa is depth a lot of people are excited about, and Keyon Martin and rookie Chandler Rivers are competing for the slot.

The Specialists

Jordan Stout made a Pro Bowl and followed Harbaugh to New York. Sixth-round rookie Ryan Eckley replaces him.

And then Loop. Context first: before 2025, kicking balls were kept under lock and key by officials and were stiff. A rule change now lets teams break in 60 balls before the season, and league-wide distance and accuracy jumped accordingly. Loop arrived as a rookie in that new environment, replacing the greatest kicker who ever lived.

He went 30-for-34, 8-for-9 from 40 to 49, and 1-for-3 from 50-plus with two missed extra points, and often looked uncomfortable. The one that got away was the 44-yarder in Pittsburgh on the last play of the season. He then went 5-for-8 across the preseason with two misses in the finale, and the Ravens signed Jake Moody to the practice squad Monday – the first time all offseason they’ve carried a second kicker. Minter reiterated Loop is his kicker in Indianapolis and that he just wants every scenario covered.

Part of us extends the benefit of the doubt; replacing Justin Tucker was impossible and Year 2 should be better. The other part notes that a league converting from distances nobody used to attempt will ask more of him, not less. The fanbase being incredibly skeptical, doesn’t make his job any easier.

The Division

We have Baltimore winning the AFC North at 11-6. That deserves more scrutiny than it usually gets, because the defending champion is still there and the division was decided on the final play last year.

Pittsburgh won it at 10-7 and returns Clay’s No. 3 defense, headlined by the best edge group in football. Their problem is an offense Clay ranks 26th, run by a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers who posted the league’s  lowest average depth of target while finishing 23rd in EPA per dropback. If Rodgers is merely league-average, that’s a division threat, and our 8-9 projection for them is the AFC North call we’d most expect to be wrong.

Cincinnati we have at 10-7 with the second-easiest schedule, Clay’s No. 3 offense and a defense rebuilt around Dexter Lawrence. They don’t need a good defense, just an average one – which they haven’t had since 2022.

Cleveland has drafted well the last two years and might be beginning to put something together, but they’re starting the season with Deshaun Watson at QB. Every indication 2026 will be another long-year for the Browns.

Eleven wins should take this division.

The Schedule

Fifth-easiest in the league by Sharp’s model, behind only Detroit, Cincinnati, New Orleans and the Jets. The front half is genuinely soft: at Indianapolis, New Orleans, Dallas in Rio de Janeiro, Tennessee, at Atlanta, at Cleveland, then Cincinnati in Week 7 and at Buffalo in Week 8.

Two notes. An international game in Week 3 is a strange wrinkle for a staff installing two new systems before it has established any routine. And a soft opening means a slow start would be genuinely alarming. If Baltimore is 3-3 through six against this slate, the pressure mounts.

Our Number

We published 11-6, AFC North champions, the No. 2 seed in the AFC — and an under on 11.5.

The over is priced at +115 and the under at -140, an implied 46.5 percent chance of twelve wins or more. Baltimore has the highest total in the AFC and the second-highest in football. SI’s projection lands on the under as well.

We’re also not alone at eleven. Nate Tice and Robert Mays both landed there, with Tice making the point we’d endorse: twelve wins is a lot of wins in any season, new offenses take four or five weeks to settle, and eleven is technically the under and still a very good year for a team built to peak in January.

Buffalo is our AFC favorite, with Baltimore close behind.

Week 1: Ravens at Colts

Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM, CBS. Baltimore is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5, and given a 61.4% chance of winning by ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Clay’s model lands almost identically at 61%, projecting 24.5–21.4.

Two debuts at once: Minter’s first game as a head coach, Doyle’s first calling an NFL offense — from the booth, on the road, against Lou Anarumo.

Doyle vs. Anarumo

Anarumo earned the nickname “mad scientist” in Cincinnati for schemes that changed week to week, and the reputation is built on two specific things: disguise in the secondary, and manipulating an offense’s protection plan to create favorable matchups for his rushers. There’s an irony there — one of the rushers he did that for was Trey Hendrickson, who is now Baltimore’s.

The numbers are less extreme than the reputation. Anarumo blitzed on 28.6 percent of opponent dropbacks from 2019 through 2024, 18th in the NFL. He is not Flores or Bowles or Wink Martindale. What he does instead is vary what the pressure looks like — simulated pressures where four rush but you can’t tell which four, linemen dropping into coverage, and a signature “Tango” concept he began leaning on in 2023.

The wrinkle that should concern Baltimore most is what sits behind the pressure. Anarumo’s Bengals finished fourth in the league in Quarters usage behind a blitz and third in two-high coverage rate when blitzing at 36.1 percent — meaning he sends five and still keeps a two-deep structure behind it. That is the exact call designed to punish a quarterback who assumes pressure means single coverage and takes the shot. It’s also the call that punishes a young play caller whose hot routes are built on a pre-snap read that turns out to be a lie.

Anarumo’s Colts finished 2025 with 41 sacks, five more than the year before. And this is his second year in the building, which matters: the shape-shifting works better once the personnel knows the system.

How Doyle should attack it. Play-action from under center with Henry as the threat forces a two-high defense to commit a safety. Doyle’s best counter to simulated pressure is the thing Baltimore is built to do anyway: run it.

Indianapolis

The Colts are trying to answer whether they’re the team that looked like a contender for two months or the one that lost its final seven games. Daniel Jones was excellent early top ten in passing yards, yards per attempt, completion percentage and touchdowns before tearing his Achilles in December. He was a full participant in camp. Whether the injury takes anything off his movement is the question they can’t answer until Sunday, and it’s a live one, because Jones has always been an underrated runner who throws well outside the pocket. Anthony Richardson is behind him.

The infrastructure is good. Jonathan Taylor grades a 9 and got paid at two years, $44 million; Quenton Nelson and Bernhard Raimann anchor a line some outlets have inside their top five. That’s the matchup Baltimore’s interior has to win, and it’s the reason Shane Steichen’s play-action game works.

The receiver room got rebuilt in a hurry after Michael Pittman Jr. was traded to Pittsburgh. Keenan Allen signed a one-year deal last month, was arrested early Sunday morning on misdemeanor OVWI charges, and Chris Ballard said flatly on Tuesday that he will play — internal discipline won’t cost him snaps, and the NFL will likely wait for the legal process, though its alcohol policy allows for a suspension of up to three games. Allen at 34 is still a precise route runner who wins underneath and over the middle. That’s exactly the throw Indianapolis wants for a quarterback in his first game back, and exactly the area a two-high zone defense concedes by design.

The Colts are banged up around him. Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and tight end Tyler Warren are all questionable, and Indianapolis already lost Coleman Owen, D.J. Montgomery and Will Mallory to injured reserve.

On defense, Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward are both questionable and that room is thin. Up front, Laiatu Latu doubled his sack total to 8.5 last year and is teamed with DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart who hold the interior.

Ravens Defense Will Focus On Taylor

Steichen’s offense is built outward from the run. Taylor is the engine, the play-action game is the payoff, and the reason Indianapolis was productive for two months last year is that Jones was excellent throwing off it Play-action from under center depends on a quarterback who can carry out a fake, reset his feet and throw on the move. If Jones is even slightly compromised there, the whole structure loses its teeth and Indianapolis becomes a dropback offense with a rebuilt receiver room and a quarterback in his first game back.

Baltimore’s plan will be to stop Taylor with the front. Clay’s top-graded interior line in the NFL against Nelson and Raimann is the matchup that decides whether Indianapolis gets to play the game it wants. If Madubuike, Travis Jones and Campbell hold up on early downs, the Colts are throwing on second-and-8 into a two-high zone, and Hendrickson gets to rush against a line that has to slide toward help.

Minter’s defense will concede the underneath throw by design. Maybe Keenan Allen and Jones have some success with that?  If the Ravens aren’t afraid of being beat over the top, there will be a lot Hamilton near the line.

Ravens Availability

Madubuike stayed off injured reserve. We will see if he’s ready to go. Either way, snap count figures to be limited.
Buchanan was also kept off IR. Same thing there.  Ready to go? Limited snap count if so.

Randall went to IR, leaving Henry, Hill and Ali as the backs.

What happens at Center? Will Pocic be available?

Matchups To Watch

Whoever wins the Center job against DeForest Buckner.  Need the Center to help with the scheming, and also to avoid consistently getting pushed back into Jackson. Don’t want a game where the Ravens are consistently facing 3rd and long.

Kyle Hamilton, wherever Minter puts him. First real look at the James blueprint applied to a better player. What percentage of snaps is he up on the line? How often is he blitizing?

Keenan Allen over the middle.  Who is covering him in the slot?

Our call: Ravens get the road W to start the year, but maybe less comfortably than some think.  Would like to avoid this game coming down to kicking.

The post Previewing The 2026 Ravens Season And Week 1 At Indianapolis appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Entering tonight in Colorado, the Orioles are 68-69, 4th in the AL East, and one game behind Cleveland for the 3rd Wild Card.

One game under .500 for the first time since April 30th.

Seven wins in their last nine. 5-1 on the road trip with three to play in Denver.

Baseball Reference now puts their post-season odds at 23%. FanGraphs has their odds at 21%.

On August 4th, the day after the Deadline, the FanGraphs projection was 12%.

SI’s betting roundup had the O’s as the biggest mover in the league last week, from +500 to +310 to reach October.

They’re 16th in the Power Rankings at CBS Sports, 14th at MLB.com, and 14th at FanGraphs.

The Schedule

The remaining schedule is:

• 8/31 – 9/2 at Colorado
• 9/3 – 9/6 vs. Boston
• 9/7 – 9/9 vs. Cleveland
• 9/11 – 9/13 at Toronto
• 9/14 – 9/16 at the Mets
• 9/18 – 9/20 vs. Milwaukee
• 9/21 – 9/23 vs. Toronto
• 9/25 – 9/27 at the Yankees

Sixteen of the 25 come against the AL East or Cleveland. Thirteen at home, twelve on the road.

Six games come against Colorado (52-85) and the Mets (61-76), who are the two worst teams they’ll see.

Three come against Milwaukee, who at 85-52 has the best record in baseball.

And six against Toronto, who at 68-70 is a half-game behind the O’s and chasing the same spot.

The Cleveland series, September 7th-9th at Camden Yards, is also circled. Three games, head-to-head, against the team directly in front of you.

There is no version of this where the O’s back into the playoffs.

If they reach the post-season, they’ll have earned it – even with the AL being down as a whole.

Walking Some Thoughts Back

On August 3rd I wrote a piece with the headline “Yeah, Time For Elias To Go.”

I’ll take some of that back.

I try not to be hyperbolic, the headline was.

What I wrote at the time was that I could make a logical argument for each move individually and still didn’t like the decision-making collectively.
That I could see the O’s still make the post-season, and if that happened – I’d be irritated to not have Rutschman, Wells, Kremer, Ward available.

My thought was that I would have preferred Elias to add along the fringes, and let that group play out the year.

I did acknowledge that Elias had extracted value in the trades, particularly for Rutschman.

But I said the fanbase wouldn’t get over it, and I said the man should lose his job over it. Four weeks later, the team is 14-11 since, they’ve climbed from four games under to one, and their odds have roughly doubled.

A month later, I have to plainly acknowledge Elias largely made the right call.

And the returns look better with a month of distance. Per MLB Pipeline and ESPN’s updated Top 10, Anthony Eyanson is now the #2 prospect in the system, Enddy Azocar #4, Michael Forret #9. Kyson Witherspoon, also from the Rutschman deal, just missed, as did 2025 college picks Caden Hunter and JT Quinn. Eric Booth Jr. sits atop the list.

Add Joseph Dzierwa, Nate George, Ike Irish, Boston Bateman, Wehiwa Aloy, and Trey Gibson, and this is a genuinely deep system again. Not overwhelming at the very top. But deep, with real pitching, which the O’s have never had this much of at once under Elias.

Ward finished his Orioles season with 2.7 bWAR, 1.8 fWAR. By bWAR, he’s still has the 2nd highest total  on the team.
Rutschman had 1.9 bWAR, and 2.4 fWAR in 67 games.
Wells had a 2.67 ERA out of the pen.

Those were real players and the O’s gave them away in a season they’re now one game out.
So no, I’m not declaring the Deadline a masterstroke.

But calling for the man’s job was too far, and I said it too fast.

If they get in, the correct read is they fortified the systems, and got to October. That would be a hell of a month’s work.

Most Valuable Oriole: Alonso, And Then?

Pete Alonso is the MVO and it isn’t close.

.270/.360/.503, 32 homers, 91 RBI, a 143 OPS+, 4.0 bWAR, 4.0 fWAR, and he’s played all 137 games. On a club that ranks 17th in slugging, he is the slugging.
He has been every bit of what they paid for.

Second is the interesting question.

The bWAR board, among players still in the building:

• Gunnar Henderson  – 2.5
• Brandon Young – 2.1
• Colton Cowser  – 1.9
• Samuel Basallo – 1.6
• Shane Baz – 1.5
• Blaze Alexander -1.3

The fWAR board:

• Shane Baz – 3.4
• Gunnar Henderson – 3.1
• Trevor Rogers – 2.7
• Kyle Bradish – 1.9
• Colton Cowser – 1.7
• Brandon Young – 1.5
• Blaze Alexander – 1.4

Henderson leads it, and I understand why. He’s played 136 games, taken 610 plate appearances, held down shortstop, and hit 22 homers.

But a .223 average and a .307 on-base from a player we expected to be a top-five position player in the sport is a disappointing season to-date, and if voting today – I’d have a hard time placing him 2nd.

Truth be told, Henderson is probably the correct choice.

Still, I’d like to highlight Young and Alexander.

I don’t think either are better or ‘more valuable’ than Henderson obviously; but this year goes completely sideways without their production.

Young is 9-3, 3.38, a 122 ERA+ over 130.1 innings, on a staff that ranks 19th in ERA and lost Zach Eflin and Keegan Akin to Tommy John, traded Kremer, and has watched Chris Bassitt post a 4.97. Young came into 2026 with no guaranteed rotation spot. He’s been regularly dependable, and that consistency means so much.

The fair counter is his 4.30 FIP, which says some regression is owed. Noted.

It’s been great seeing Alexander get back after the fracture in his left hand. He’s hit .309/.363/.430 with a 126 OPS+ in 84 games while starting at six different positions.

Robert Jr., Platoons, And Alignments

Monday the O’s claimed Luis Robert Jr. off outright waivers from the Mets. They owe roughly $3M the rest of the way, with a $20M team option for 2027 that carries a $2M buyout. Because he joined before September 1st, he’s post-season eligible.

He hit .223 with 10 homers and a .702 OPS in 58 games for New York, and missed April 27th through July 20th with a herniated lumbar disc.
He’s got an .841 OPS over his last 30 games, and 75 ab’s.
He’s got elite speed, and a strong arm.
He’s good in CF, previously grading strong.
Him being available for CF, allows you to play Cowser in left and upgrade two spots.

At the Trade Deadline I talked about wanting the O’s to improve on the fringes.
One of the things I mentioned was a better defensive OF.
Here they got a viable option for just money. That’s a win.

With Tyler O’Neill on the IL (retroactive to August 23rd) with a shoulder, the O’s outfield was Cowser (L), Beavers (L), and Taveras (S). Against left-handed pitching that’s a real hole, and Robert is a right-handed bat who won a Gold Glove in center in 2020.

I’m interested to see how playing time shakes out in September.

Clearly Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand have to play every game vs. lefties given how their crushing southpaws.

Taveras probably doesn’t get anymore ab’s vs. LHP (.518 OPS as a RHH).

As we just said above, Robert in CF pushes Coswer to LF.   Cowser has been excellent in CF this year, but was even better in LF in ’24.

Jackson Holliday has been ice cold  (.494 OPS) over his last 104 ab’s. He actually has a higher OPS vs. LHP right now.

Alexander has a .873 OPS vs. RHP.  Got to get him ab’s, and see if he can pick-up where he was before the injury. His positional availability gives Albernaz some flexibility.

How many games can Basallo catch?   Carlos Narvaez is excellent defensively, but he’s really struggling offensively.

Beavers had a nice August offensively. Going into tonight, he’s had a .816 OPS over 69 ab’s.

The Bullpen

I like what has been pieced together here.

Yennier Cano has been the quietly excellent one. 3.07 ERA, a 2.38 FIP, and exactly one home run allowed in 44 innings across 59 appearances. He picked up his third save Sunday.

Rico Garcia has been the workhorse. 64 games, 3.26, a 0.966 WHIP, 59 strikeouts in 58 innings. After allowing 8 homers over June and July, he hasn’t allowed a big fly in August.

Grant Wolfram has a 5.05 ERA and a 3.16 FIP with 9.9 K/9. The results should have been better than they’ve been.

Josh Walker (2.33), Cam Sanders (3.46), and Alex Hoppe (no earned runs in 8.2 innings, acquired in the Rutschman deal) round it out. Cade Povich was recalled Monday to start, and he’s another long-man option.

Andrew Kittredge has eight saves and a 3.19 ERA, but a 3.74 FIP and -0.2 bWAR.  Despite that negative WAR, he’s been strong since the calendar turned to June. I’d still rather have him in the 8th vs. the 9th.

Ryan Helsley hasn’t pitched since June 27th with elbow inflammation and has only recently progressed to bullpen sessions. Plan on nothing, but he’s still hopeful he can return before the year ends. That would be a bonus.

And then there’s the one that matters.

Félix Bautista is three rehab outings into his return from the August 2025 surgery to repair his labrum and rotator cuff. The first, at Double-A Chesapeake, was ugly: one out, three runs, three walks, though the fastball hit 97. The second at Norfolk was a clean inning. The third was a scoreless sixth against Durham with one single, no walks, a strikeout, and a sinker that topped at 97.6.

You are looking to see if he can throw strikes consistently.
At some-point maybe you give him outings on back-to-back days and see how he responds.
Like Helsley, you don’t count on his return, but it’s fun to think about as a possibility.

Things To Watch

Who closes? See above. Albernaz has used five different guys for saves.

Does Bassitt keep his rotation spot? A 4.97 ERA and a 1.582 WHIP, five runs allowed Sunday, and Povich just got recalled after a 5.2-inning, 11-strikeout start at Norfolk. That’s a live question in a race. I’d defer to the experience – probably.

Does Holliday finish? As we said above, Holliday has been freezing the last month. That was after a strong July.  Does he turn things around in September?

Does Basallo get hot?  He’s got the talent to be a difference maker.

Adley comes home. Boston is at Camden Yards Thursday through Sunday. That’s going to be a strange four days, and the crowd reaction will tell you something about where the fanbase actually landed on all this. The fact that he’s got a .500 OPS in 53 ab’s with Boston vs hitting the ground running there makes it easier.

And on September 19th, Trey Mancini signs a one-day contract and retires as an Oriole before the Milwaukee game. Whatever happens in the standings, go to that one.

They Reach October If…

Henderson finishes with a flurry.

This is the whole thing. He hit two off Jeffrey Springs on Sunday, added a run-scoring triple, and tied his career high with five RBI. He’s at 22 homers with a 102 OPS+ in a season that has been a genuine disappointment.

He doesn’t need to be the 2024 version for six months. He needs to be that guy for 25 games. A .900-OPS September from Henderson is worth two or three wins by itself in a race decided by one, and it changes the entire complexion of a lineup that ranks 9th in runs but only 17th in slugging.

If Gunnar goes off, the O’s are in. I believe that more than anything else on this list.

They take care of Colorado and the Mets.

Six games against 52-85 and 61-76. Go 5-1 and you’ve bought yourself the margin to split with Boston and Toronto. Go 3-3 and you’re going to need help you won’t get.

They win the Cleveland series.

September 7th-9th, at home, against another team in the mix.

Bautista gets back and gets the ninth.

Maybe I’m dreaming here. But if the O’s get him back, and he’s able to factor in leverage situations, that’s significant.

Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand keep hammering left-handers, and Albernaz uses them accordingly.

The platoon edges are the cheapest wins available to this team, and they’re sitting right there. Mayo has an .878 OPS since July. Play the matchups every night.

Bradish and Rogers finish strong.

If Gunnar finishing strong is #1 on my list, how Bradish and Rogers finish is 2 and 3.
Bradish had a 5.40 era over 5 starts in August.  We wondered if the lack of innings the last 2 years would catch-up with him.
Rogers had a 4.82 era over his 5 starts in August.
The O’s don’t reach October if these two aren’t better in September.

Twenty-five games. One game back.  Can they go 17-8?

Four weeks ago I wrote that post-season baseball is largely a roll of the dice, and the goal is just to get there and take your chances.

September is arriving, and October is within reach.

The post September Arrives appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

There is a real case that this team is better than 4-8. There is also a real case that the players most responsible for last season’s few strengths are the ones who left. Both cases are built from the same roster, which is what makes this an interesting season rather than an obvious one.

This is a long look at the whole roster: what we like, what we are still asking, and what the first month should answer.

The short version

What we like:

• Linebacker is the surest group on the roster, and Daniel Wingate may be the best player on the team.
• Sidney Stewart and Zion Elee give Maryland a real edge tandem even without Zahir Mathis.
• Michael Hershey is settled and genuinely good at center, and he is a developmental success story.
• The tight end room is deep, talented and about to be used more.
• Sean O’Haire and Bryce McFerson are plausibly the best kicker-punter tandem in the Big Ten.
• Jamare Glasker and Messiah Delhomme are two secondary pieces worth building around.

What we are asking:

• Can this offense score inside the twenty after finishing last in FBS in red zone touchdown rate?
• Does the run game move at all, and how much of Clint Trickett’s rushing résumé was scheme?
• Who catches the ball in a room that returns 37.8 percent of its production?
• Can the interior defensive line hold up after losing two starters from a unit that was already 99th against the run?
• Does the secondary survive losing an NFL third-round pick and an all-conference corner in the same year?
• Can Maryland finally win a close game, and hold up in the fourth quarter?

Setting the table

The 2025 season had two halves and no middle. Maryland started 4-0, beating Florida Atlantic, Towson, Northern Illinois and then Wisconsin on the road, 27-10. It then lost eight straight to finish 4-8 and 1-8 in the Big Ten. The first three of those losses came by a combined ten points: four to Washington, three to Nebraska, three to UCLA. The Terps went 0-3 in one-score games on the year.

Two numbers explain most of it. Maryland finished last in FBS in red zone touchdown rate at 37.8 percent, and it was outscored 102-34 in fourth quarters. That is an offense that could move the ball and not finish, attached to a defense and a roster that could not hold up late. The Terps also forced 21 interceptions and were still outscored on the season, which puts them in a group of three FBS teams that managed that particular trick.

Locksley responded with two significant hires. Clint Trickett arrives as offensive coordinator from Jacksonville State, replacing Pep Hamilton after one difficult year. Trickett comes out of the Dana Holgorsen tree, having played for him at West Virginia, and his Jacksonville State offense led Conference USA in total yards. Matt Barnes takes over special teams, hired in March on short notice after Chili Davis was promoted and then poached by the Minnesota Vikings. Barnes is a Frederick native and Urbana High graduate returning for a second Maryland stint, having previously run the Terps’ special teams from 2016 to 2018 before three seasons at Ohio State and coordinator jobs at Memphis and Mississippi State. Ted Monachino returns for year two as defensive coordinator, with Aazaar Abdul-Rahim as co-coordinator.

The roster churn cut both ways. Maryland kept Malik Washington, Stewart and most of its young core, which in the current era is its own kind of win. It lost Aliou Bah to LSU and Alan Herron to the NFL on the offensive line, Kevyn Humes to Rutgers and Dontay Joyner off the roster in the secondary, and Dillon Fontus to Syracuse up front. Safety Jalen Huskey went to Jacksonville in the third round of the draft. Zahir Mathis, a Freshman All-American, was lost for the season to an August injury.

The Offense

Quarterback

Malik Washington is the reason for most of the optimism around this team, and the reason is legitimate. He became Maryland’s first freshman to start a season opener since 2012, started all twelve games, and completed 273 of 473 passes for 2,963 yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also announced early that he was staying, which mattered.

The efficiency numbers are the other side. Washington completed 57.7 percent of his throws and posted a 118.4 passer rating that ranked 108th out of 117 qualifying FBS quarterbacks. ESPN put him in its eighth tier of quarterback situations. On The Solid Verbal, Ty Rubenstein’s critique was about touch: that Washington throws nearly everything at maximum velocity and needs to modulate on the five-yard out and the fifty-yard ball alike.

That critique deserves a large asterisk. Maryland’s receivers dropped 39 passes last season, more than any unit in the country. Some meaningful share of the completion percentage belonged to the room rather than the arm. The complication is that Maryland removed the drops and the production in the same transaction, so we will not know how much of the accuracy problem was his until he is throwing to people who catch it.

One underrated asset: Washington was Maryland’s second-leading rusher with 303 yards at 5.4 a carry. In a spread system that is a cheap way to add numbers to the run game, and Trickett’s offenses have historically used the quarterback.

Behind him the depth is unproven but interesting. Cardell Williams arrives from Sacramento State having thrown for 1,651 yards and ten touchdowns while also, per our earlier reporting, running for 382 yards and twelve scores. If that rushing line holds, he is an obvious short-yardage package waiting to be built, and Maryland was last in the country inside the twenty. Jack Capaldi, Max Lawrence and freshman Nathan Bernhard round out the room.

Running Back

This is the group most people have ranked last on the roster, and the production supports that. Maryland attempted 305 runs last season, fewer than any offense in Division I, and averaged 104.3 rushing yards a game, its lowest figure since joining the Big Ten in 2014. The per-carry average did climb from 3.6 to 4.1.

DeJuan Williams is better than his rushing line suggests. He led the team with 927 all-purpose yards, set a Maryland single-season record for receiving yards by a running back with 426 (breaking Bruce Perry’s 359 from 2001), and led all Big Ten backs with 45 receptions. He was named the team’s Freshman Offensive Player of the Year. He also ran for 501 yards on 128 carries at 3.9 a pop with two runs longer than 20 yards all season, which is the part that has to change.

Worth remembering who he is. Williams was a four-star out of Saint Frances who chose Maryland over Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. A back with that profile averaging 3.9 is at least partly a blocking and play-calling story rather than a talent story.

The depth is where the questions live. Harry Dalton arrived from USC with real high school recognition in Virginia and has eight career carries for 44 yards. Terrez Worthy is the most explosive name on paper, having led all juco rushers with 1,492 yards and ten touchdowns at Lackawanna in 2023 and averaged 5.4 a carry at Temple in 2024 with a 75-yard touchdown against Tulane, but he left Temple four games into 2025 for personal reasons and finished with 71 yards on 23 carries. He also returns kicks. Iverson Howard, a three-star per 247 and an ESPN 300 four-star per ESPN, averaged 3.2 on 39 carries and handled kickoff returns.

Locksley said in camp that Williams, Howard and Dalton have all come along and given him hope the run game shows up. Inside MD Sports reports that nobody behind Williams has separated. When the coach and the people at practice every day see it differently, September settles it.

Wide Receiver

The honest answer here is that nobody knows, and anyone claiming otherwise is guessing.

Only 37.8 percent of Maryland’s receiving production returns. Shaleak Knotts, Jalil Farooq and Octavian Smith Jr. are all gone, and the nation-leading 39 drops went with them. The addition-by-subtraction argument has genuine merit. It is also true that the top returning receiver is Kaleb Webb with 22 catches for 318 yards, and that Maryland threw for 98 yards against Rutgers, its lowest total since 2022.

The reasons for optimism are real even if unproven. Chris Durr, in from Wyoming with 45 catches for 469 yards, won the Torrey Smith Wide Receiver Award in the spring and has reportedly built strong chemistry with Washington. One source described him as potentially the best after-catch runner Maryland has had in a while, which is the most useful trait a receiver can have in a spacing offense trying to manufacture easy yards. Jeff Ermann independently reported the same buzz in August. Na’eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding caught 51 passes for 667 yards and six touchdowns at Old Dominion with 100-yard games against Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State, earned All-Sun Belt honorable mention. Webb has reportedly moved to the top of the depth chart, and he was a top-200 four-star who was targeted oddly infrequently last season despite being more reliable than the players around him.

There is more talent in this room than the production suggests. Ryan Manning, who has three career catches, was a top-100 national receiver coming out of Saint Frances. Zymear Smith was a four-star ESPN 300 signee who picked Maryland over Alabama, Penn State and South Carolina, redshirted, spent a stretch at defensive back and is now back at receiver. Sean Williams was a top-five player in D.C. Ejani Shakir caught 43 passes for 724 yards at Independence C.C. Jordan Scott was the No. 2 juco receiver in his cycle and spent a season at Florida State, though he did not crack the rotation here last year.

One structural note that matters for the red zone. This is among the tallest receiver rooms in the Big Ten. Scott is 6-foot-7. Webb and freshman Josiah Teasley are 6-5. Jayden Kitchens is 6-3. Spacing does not solve the goal line, where the field shrinks, but catch radius might. If Maryland finds red zone touchdowns this fall, jump balls are a plausible mechanism that has nothing to do with the run game. The counter-question is the right one: whether these receivers separate at the top of a route against Big Ten corners, which is a different job than winning contested balls in the Sun Belt or Conference USA.

Tight End

This may be the most improved situation on the roster, and it is the clearest place to check whether the new scheme is real.

Dorian Fleming tied for second among Big Ten tight ends with 40 receptions for 351 yards and three touchdowns, earned honorable mention All-Big Ten, and is on the John Mackey Award watch list for a second straight year. His nine catches against Washington were the second-most by any FBS tight end in a game last season and the second-most by a Maryland tight end in thirty years. He shared the team’s spring leadership award with Mathis.

Preston Howard is back after three seasons at Maryland and a year at Auburn, where he started seven games. He has been candid that Auburn was not his best year or his best headspace, and he is reportedly in the best shape of his career. AJ Szymanski is a legitimate in-line blocker at 6-6 who played all twelve games with three starts. JT Taggart, Willie Taggart’s son, gives the room another body, and the freshman class adds three more.

Trickett developed Harrison Bryant into a Mackey Award winner at Florida Atlantic, and Maryland is expected to play a significant amount of two-tight-end personnel as a way to manufacture throws around a thin receiver room. Maryland’s tight ends caught 49 passes last season, under 18 percent of Washington’s completions. If that share does not climb, the scheme change is smaller than advertised.

The caveat comes from Fleming himself. Drops were a problem for him and his blocking was inconsistent, and he has said his own next step is being seen as a physical blocker rather than only a pass catcher. Two-tight-end sets only work if the second tight end can block. Otherwise it is an announcement to the defense.

Offensive Line

Start with the good number, because it is a very good number. Maryland allowed nine sacks last season, the fewest by any Big Ten team since 2020 and tied for third-fewest in the nation.

Now the complications. The same unit graded in the high 40s and low 50s as run blockers across most of its starters, and Inside MD Sports reports the sack total was aided by an inordinate number of screens under Hamilton. So the line’s best trait was partly a play-calling artifact, and Trickett is being asked to improve its weakest trait while running a scheme that may put its strongest at risk. Two starters are gone in Bah and Herron.

Michael Hershey anchors it and deserves more attention than he gets nationally. He came out of high school a three-star ranked the 213th defensive lineman in the country, choosing Maryland over Charlotte, Yale and Delaware. He started all twelve games at center, allowed zero sacks and ten pressures, posted an 83.5 PFF pass-blocking grade, and now sits on the Rimington Trophy watch list with Phil Steele rating him the eighth-best draft-eligible center in the country. The Athletic included him among the top interior linemen in a re-rank of the 2024 recruiting class.

Rahtrel Perry returns at left tackle after starting all twelve games, a Central Connecticut State transfer who was a first-team All-NEC pick and a top-ten portal tackle when he arrived, with two years of eligibility left. Isaiah Wright started all twelve at left guard and has 24 career Power Four starts across Rutgers, Buffalo and Maryland, and he is moving to tackle this fall. Tellek Lockette is the headline addition, a Texas State transfer with 28 career starts and 2,011 snaps whom Pro Football Network rated the top offensive lineman among small-school transfers to the Power Four. He allowed no sacks and no pressures in 131 snaps last season before a lower leg injury ended his year, which is excellent and a small sample at the same time.

The upside piece is Jaylen Gilchrist, an ESPN 300 signee who was the 80th overall recruit in his class and lost 2025 to an injury in the opener. He is the highest-rated lineman on the roster and is competing for a starting guard job as a redshirt freshman. Ryan Howerton, a 6-6, 332-pounder who moved in from tackle, and Amory Hills are in that competition too. The belief inside the building is that this group is nastier and more physical than a year ago. The running game will be the evidence either way.

The Defense

The returning production, read closely

Maryland brings back 74 percent of its defensive production and eight starters. It does not bring back the players who earned recognition.

Jalen Huskey was the team’s Defensive Player of the Year, a captain and a second-team All-Big Ten safety with 72 tackles and four interceptions, and he ranked sixth among Big Ten safeties in PFF total defense grade before Jacksonville took him 100th overall. Cam Rice was honorable mention All-Big Ten on the defensive line and graduated. Dontay Joyner was honorable mention All-Big Ten at corner with eight pass breakups and left the program in August. Dillon Fontus started inside and transferred to Syracuse. Zahir Mathis was a Freshman All-American with 8.5 tackles for loss and six sacks and is out for the year.

Stewart and Wingate are the returning honorees. That is not a prediction of collapse. It is a reason to hold the 74 percent lightly, because volume and quality are not the same thing.

One note on how the units get counted. Maryland lists Stewart and Elee at linebacker, our depth chart puts SAM with the defensive line, and Inside MD Sports grouped edges with the line for its rankings. Count the edges as line and the front looks good, because they are the two best young players on this defense. Count them as linebackers and the line looks thin while the linebacker room looks excellent. We are treating the edges as part of the front here.

Edge

Sidney Stewart’s freshman season was outstanding: 32 tackles, 10.5 for loss, seven sacks, seven quarterback hits, two pass breakups, a forced fumble and a forced safety. He arrived a three-star and a top-40 player in Maryland who chose the Terps over West Virginia, Boston College and Indiana. Keeping him was a real offseason win.

Zion Elee is the highest-rated prospect the program has ever signed, a five-star already named to the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year watch list. He is listed at SAM in an OR with Stewart, which means Monachino has a decision about how to get both on the field.

Mathis’s injury is the complication. He and Stewart combined for 13 sacks and 19 tackles for loss last season, and half of that is gone. The listed replacement at JACK, Nahsir Taylor, had 19 tackles, three tackles for loss and two sacks in eleven games. The underlying question is whether Stewart can be a primary rusher rather than a complementary one. At 6-2 and 255 he is built more like a base end than a prototypical edge, and being the player every Big Ten tackle game-plans for is a different job. Maryland On SI’s Jaden Golding is betting yes and projects double-digit sacks. That is the optimistic case and it is a fair one.

Interior DL

This is the group we are watching hardest.

Maryland allowed 175.6 rushing yards a game last season, 99th in FBS, with Rice and Fontus playing. Both are gone. Add up the 2025 tackles for every projected interior contributor, across four different programs, and the total is 82. Wingate had 102 by himself. Their combined tackles for loss come to nine. Stewart had 10.5 alone.

The counterweight is pedigree, and it is not nothing. Bryce Jenkins was a four-star ESPN 300 signee and the No. 2 recruit in D.C. in his class. DD Holmes was also a four-star ESPN 300 and the No. 2 player in D.C. in his. Derrick LeBlanc, in from UCF, was the 51st overall recruit in the country out of high school. JaMarcus Whyce is a four-star freshman who ranked 17th in Ohio. EJ Moore was a Phil Steele FCS Freshman All-American before he arrived. Eyan Thomas, a second-team All-NEC pick at Saint Francis, is the returning piece at 6-3 and 328. Lavon Johnson comes back from Texas, and Armon and Jayvon Parker arrive from Washington with size and 32 combined games.

Counting stats are a poor way to judge young rotational linemen, so we would not write this room off. Jenkins and Holmes are entering the years when interior linemen typically arrive. But this is the group Big Ten offenses will test first, and we will have to wait and see if there is improvement here or not. I like some of the depth that was added, but we have to see them perform.

Linebacker

It’s been argued by some that Wingate, not Washington, is currently the best player on the team. It is defensible.

Wingate had 102 tackles, sixth in the Big Ten and 35th nationally, with 6.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and a pick six against Florida Atlantic. He is the first Terp to reach 100 tackles since Tre Watson in 2018, and he did it playing through a high ankle sprain for most of the season without missing a snap. His teammates voted him the Louis L. Goldstein Gold Helmet Award as the program’s most outstanding player. He is on the Butkus, Bronko Nagurski and Chuck Bednarik watch lists. Monachino called him the player who holds the whole thing together and said there can never be enough of him. Lavain Scruggs said a fully healthy Wingate is a complete monster.

Trey Reddick started ten of eleven games with 53 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and two sacks, and he is a 6-4 athlete who was a three-time state champion at Phoebus and chose Maryland over Wake Forest, North Carolina and Penn State. The knock is that his length and his habit of launching at ball carriers produce some missed tackles. Carlton Smith finished fourth on the team with 64 tackles despite one start as a true freshman, tied for second in quarterback hurries, and picked Maryland over Alabama, Miami, Penn State and Notre Dame. He looks like the next one.

Stephen Dean III arrives from VMI, where he led the Southern Conference with 117 tackles as a captain and added 9.5 for loss. Locksley has pointed to his physicality and special teams value. Jordan Williams is the roster’s most unusual story, a grad transfer who spent four seasons playing college basketball at Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Rice before returning to a sport he last played as a high school sophomore, when he was a Texas state MVP. His father played five NFL seasons at running back and his brother is on Tampa Bay’s roster.

The returners here combined for 23 starts, against one start for the group that came back a year ago. The depth thins after the top four, though Kaden Carter is a four-star freshman rated the seventh-best inside linebacker in his class and Travares Daniels II was a top-100 player in Florida. Unproven is not the same as untalented. How many snaps Wingate and Reddick hold up for will decide whether this is a strength or a thin strength.

Secondary

Maryland finished third-to-last in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed and last in the conference in passing touchdowns allowed. It gave up 43 percent on third down, and only Illinois and Northern Illinois were held under 215 yards through the air. Then it lost Huskey and Joyner. That is the case for worry, and it is a strong one.

The case for optimism starts with Jamare Glasker. The redshirt senior tied for the team lead and ranked fourth in the Big Ten with four interceptions, including three straight games with a pick, the longest such streak by a Terp since William Likely III in 2014, and he returned one for a touchdown against UCLA. He added six breakups and 32 tackles. The staff believes he is a quality No. 1 corner and that belief looks earned.

Amari Jackson gives Maryland experience opposite him, with 28 starts across four years at Boston College, two career interceptions including a pick six, and an ESPN ranking of 82nd overall and fourth among corners changing schools. Abdul-Rahim coached him at BC, so the install is not starting from zero. The caveat is durability: injuries have cost him significant time each of the last two seasons, including a torn ACL that ended 2024.

Jordan Scruggs was added in mid-August after a court granted him a sixth year of eligibility, and he raises the floor. He has 35 career games and 20 starts across Washburn, Central Missouri, Hutchinson C.C., South Alabama and West Virginia, and his best season came at South Alabama in 2024 with 69 tackles and a 96-yard interception return. He was rotational at West Virginia rather than a full-time starter, he is 5-11 and 166 pounds, and he arrived roughly two weeks before the opener. Floor-raiser, not a Joyner replacement.

The young corners are interesting. Sean Johnson comes from the Archbishop Spalding pipeline. Lloyd Irvin III and true freshman Hakim Satterwhite add depth. Judah Jenkins started as a true freshman in 2024, missed all of 2025, and moved back from safety for camp. Ricardo Cooper Jr., a converted receiver and former walk-on who was voted Maryland’s special teams player of the year, could see real defensive snaps.

At safety, Messiah Delhomme is the player we would bet on to take a leap. A four-star ESPN 300 signee who chose Maryland over Ohio State, Alabama and Florida State, he played all twelve games as a true freshman with 39 tackles, four pass breakups, an interception, a fumble recovery and a tackle for loss. He led the team with 12 tackles against Indiana, picked off his first pass against Nebraska, and was one of only eleven players nationally to block two kicks. He said in camp that the game has slowed down for him and credited extra film work with the assistants. That is standard camp fare, except the room just lost a third-round pick, so his development is load-bearing.

The spot next to him is a three-way question. Lavain Scruggs, a 6-3, 215-pound redshirt senior from Baltimore, started all twelve games and ranked third on the team with 64 tackles, adding two interceptions and three breakups, with a career-high eleven at Illinois. Across sixteen career starts the production has been steady and the coverage moments have not always been. Jayden Shipps, a sophomore from Spalding, played all twelve games as a freshman with eleven tackles and a sack, and coaches like what they have seen. Darrell Carey is the wild card, a DeMatha product and the class’s top-rated signee who flipped from Penn State after James Franklin’s firing and turned down Indiana and Oregon. He will play. Gavin Edwards adds depth, though the jump from Division II North Greenville and a spring at Austin Peay to the Big Ten is enormous.

One quieter thing to keep in mind across the whole defense. Maryland forced 21 interceptions and recovered two fumbles, a national low. The fumble number should improve. The interception rate is the least stable component of turnover margin and probably will not hold. The Terps were outscored even with that margin.

Special Teams

The specialists are excellent and the operation around them was not, and both halves need saying.

Sean O’Haire went 21-of-24 on field goals and 29-of-29 on extra points, earned first-team All-Big Ten as a redshirt freshman and led the conference with 1.75 made field goals per game, ninth nationally. His 87.5 percent conversion rate is the second-best single season in program history, and his 21 makes and 92 points set Maryland freshman records. He has never missed an extra point in college. He came from Richmond after going 12-for-12 in his first season ever playing football.

Bryce McFerson averaged 44.2 yards a punt, second in the Big Ten and the sixth-best single season in Maryland history, with 14 punts of 50-plus and 19 inside the 20. He was second-team All-Big Ten and earned a third career Ray Guy Award list selection. His 366 yards on eight punts at UCLA set a school record. He was the top-ranked punter in the country out of high school and averaged 45.1 at Notre Dame before transferring.

Everything else was bottom-third. Maryland ranked 92nd nationally in punt return average at seven yards, 14th of 18 in the Big Ten. It allowed 8.5 yards per punt return, fifth-worst in the conference. It averaged 18.4 yards per kickoff return, 15th. Net punting was 38.5, 13th, despite an elite leg. And a recurring short-kickoff problem handed opponents field position repeatedly.

That is why the Barnes hire matters as much as the returning talent. His Ohio State résumé includes three Big Ten titles and two College Football Playoff trips. The return jobs were still unsettled through camp, with Cooper, Howard, Durr, Gladding, Zymear Smith and Justin DeVaughn among the names. DeVaughn is worth watching for a specific reason: the redshirt freshman from Mervo recently ran the second-fastest 110-meter hurdles time in Maryland history and finished fourth at the Big Ten championships. Whether track speed becomes football speed is an open question, but Maryland needs somebody to be dangerous with the ball.

The bigger question underneath all of it

Read this roster by recruiting profile rather than last season’s box scores and a different team appears.

Locksley has recruited the DMV well. That is not in dispute, and it is why outsiders keep calling this roster underrated. Biff Poggi’s version was that Maryland has always had good skill players and now has a quarterback too. The talent has been arriving for several years, and the record over the last two seasons is 8-16.

So the question this fall is less about whether the talent is here and more about whether this staff converts it. That is a development and scheme question rather than a roster question, which makes Trickett, Barnes and Monachino’s second year the things to judge in September. Not the star ratings.

Worth saying in the other direction too, because recruiting rankings are a starting point rather than evidence. Hershey chose Maryland over Charlotte, Yale and Delaware and is now a Rimington candidate. Gladding was a zero-star recruit who led his team in catches and touchdowns. Development runs both ways, and this staff has a track record of finding players other people missed.

There is also a resource dimension worth naming. Poggi has described rosters at the top of the Big Ten running $40 to $50 million, and said a team spending $25 million is still shorthanded. Maryland is not in that business. Retention is the lever this program can actually pull, and it pulled it with Washington and Stewart; but when you are starting from an overall talent deficit to begin with – and you lose Mathis and Joyner before the first snap of the season – that obviously hurts.

The Schedule

Twelve games, with ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor win probability for each.

Three non-conference games, and each carries a different kind of test. Hampton is about installation and health. UConn is the one Maryland fans are most nervous about and, we would argue, the one where the fear is most out of date. This is not the 9-4 team people remember. Jim Mora left for Colorado State, Jason Candle arrived from Toledo with an almost entirely new staff, the offensive coordinator behind a 36.9-point offense left for TCU, and a wave of players hit the portal. That said, Candle went 81-44 at Toledo with two MAC titles and no losing season in ten years, and a brand-new staff in Week 2 is a variance game. The failure mode is treating a road opener like a walkover.

Virginia Tech at home in primetime is the game most likely to define how this season gets remembered. ESPN has Maryland at 36.9 percent, which says the model believes James Franklin’s first-year reload took. Maryland On SI’s staff mostly disagreed and picked this as the signature win. That is a wide gap between local sentiment and the numbers. Watch Penn State transfer Ethan Grunkemeyer at quarterback and Brent Pry running the Hokie defense. This is also the last meeting for a while, with Virginia Tech having bought out the 2027 and 2028 games and Maryland replacing them with Baylor. Franklin now recruits the same DMV players Locksley does, and Darrell Carey is on Maryland’s roster because Franklin got fired at Penn State.

What the math actually says about a bowl

The popular route to six wins goes like this: bank Hampton and UConn, take care of Rutgers at home and Purdue on the road, then find two among Virginia Tech, UCLA, Illinois and Wisconsin.

Maryland’s overall bowl probability is 44 percent.

ESPN has Maryland at 56.7 percent against Rutgers and 48.7 percent at Purdue, so those are coin flips rather than banked wins, and sweeping all four so-called must-wins is a one-in-five proposition. Maryland is projected at 20.9 percent at Nebraska and 20.9 percent against Penn State at home, and those add up. Most realistic six-win seasons include a game nobody has penciled in, which is a more forgiving picture than a checklist implies.

The schedule’s shape still matters. ESPN’s numbers give Maryland 2.78 expected wins across the first four games and 2.52 across the last eight. The Terps have gone 1-14 after September across two seasons, so the front-loading is not a small detail. A 3-1 start keeps everything open. A 4-0 start, which is an 18 percent proposition, would change the season entirely. A 2-0 start is a 77 percent proposition, which is to say it should happen and would not tell us much on its own.

What we will be watching in September

• Rushing attempts against Hampton. Maryland ran the ball more than 30 times in exactly two games all of last season. A number comfortably north of 35 against an FCS opponent would signal a real philosophical change. The box score will not tell us much. The play-calling will.
• Tight end target share. The cleanest early read on whether the two-tight-end plan is real, and whether Fleming’s blocking has come along enough to run it.
• Whether a goal-line package exists, and who is in it. Maryland was last in FBS inside the twenty. If Cardell Williams is part of the answer, we should see it in Week 1.
• Snap counts up front. Specifically Elee, Nahsir Taylor, and how the interior rotation sorts out among Jenkins, Holmes, LeBlanc and Thomas.
• Where Jordan Scruggs lines up. He has had roughly two weeks in the system, and Hampton is his only live audition before Virginia Tech.
• The safety next to Delhomme. Lavain Scruggs, Shipps or Carey. This is the most open competition on the roster.
• The return game and the short kickoffs. The least glamorous item here and the one that quietly cost field position all last year.
• Fourth quarters. Opponents outscored Maryland 102-34 in the fourth last season. Nothing in the offseason obviously addressed depth or conditioning. If that flips, a lot of coin-flip games flip with it.

Projection

Our projection is 5-7, with 6-6 well within reach and 4-8 in play if September goes badly. We would take the over on a 4.5-win total and we would not be surprised by a bowl. ESPN’s per-game numbers produce 5.30 expected wins and make five the single most likely outcome, which is close to where the roster review landed independently.

That is a notch below most published previews. College Football News says 6-6. Both Solid Verbal hosts said 6-6, with Rubenstein saying he sees a step forward here. Maryland On SI’s staff went 6-6, 6-6 and 7-5. Poggi predicted eight or more. CBS called the Terps the most underrated team in the Big Ten, though that label came from the one panelist who ranked them sixth while three others had them 16th, and the unofficial Big Ten media poll had Maryland 15th.

We may well be too low. The gap between our number and theirs is mostly about how much credit to give returning production that does not include last year’s best defenders. Reasonable people are weighing that differently.

What would move us is specific and it arrives quickly. If Maryland converts in short yardage, if the tight ends get used the way the scheme suggests they will, and if two of those young interior linemen show up, this is a bowl team. All three are answerable by the end of September. Beat Virginia Tech and the conversation changes on the spot.

I feel teams are built from the lines out, and it seems like MD has more size and strength on both sides of the ball this year.
That’s encouraging, but like everything with MD; you want to see talent and projection translate to production.

MD Football can be a frustrating watch year-to-year, because the roster often has a number of talented pieces, but their depth will get pressed and limitations get exploited over the course of a season.

This roster again has some legitimate talent and but also questions everywhere.

It’s hard not to bring everything back to Locksley and Washington though.

The fanbase in-general feels burned.  Lots of seasons of irrelevance do that.
Locksley is appreciated as a recruiter, but people want results.
He’s especially under-the-gun due to the magical turn-around experienced at Indiana.
The Hoosiers story aside, I think we can universally agree that this is a difficult job.
You aren’t spending at the levels of the Conference Powers, nor do you have their history.
If you bring in quality talent, you aren’t always in a position to then keep those players from being poached by programs with more spending power.
You can have recruiting and portal success overall, but still not have the same roster depth that an additional $25M buys.

Those are all valid thoughts, but no MD fan wants to hear that in Year 8 of Locksley’s tenure.
Especially with Washington back under center for Year2.
There is a genuine feeling amongst MD fans, “If we can’t make a leap now, when can we?” 
There is also the wonder of, “If Washington is really strong this year, will MD be able to keep him?” 

The possibility of retaining Washington for 2027 is a question for another day.
Right now, you are hoping that Washington takes all of the Freshman year experience, and is ready to pull everyone up a notch.
If he’s excellent week-to-week, the questions at RB and WR decrease.
If he’s regularly putting points on the board, then the Defensive Front 7 can be in position to pin their ears back and get after QB’s – which would of course make life easier for the Secondary.

Maryland finishing 4-8, 5-7, or 6-6 with a bowl shouldn’t be good enough for Locksley to keep his job.
At 7-5, there is at-least an argument to be made.
Really, the schedule is about as kind as MD is going to get.
A real breakthrough season would be beating Hampton, UConn, Rutgers, and Purdue – and then winning 4 of 6 vs. Virginia Tech, UCLA, Nebraska, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Penn State.
That’s really the year MD needs to get more fans to buy in, and for the program to be better positioned going forward.
It’s also a very tall order when it feels like MD could lose any of the non Hampton games.
What will hold my interest this Fall is that with Washington on-board, MD should have a viable chance to win every game that isn’t in Columbus, Ohio.
We will see how it shakes out.
Lot of pressure on the 20 year old Washington to lead this group But it’s fun entering the year knowing he has the potential to be great.

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This week really kicks things off across the country.

Here we look at fourteen games over five days, running from a Thursday kickoff in Atlanta to a Labor Day nightcap in Tallahassee. Three of them are inside a touchdown. Both of the tightest are after Saturday.

Win probabilities below come from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Point spreads are DraftKings. Totals were from CBS Sports.

Our full season preview and initial Power Rankings can be found here.

Thursday, September 3

Colorado at Georgia Tech (8:00 PM, ESPN) — Georgia Tech is a 6.5-point home favorite, and ESPN gives them a 58.5% chance to win. Those two numbers do not agree. A 6.5-point favorite normally wins closer to seven times in ten. The model is shaving nearly ten points of probability off the market’s number, and it is doing so in the only Thursday game that isn’t a tune-up.

BSL has Georgia Tech outside the ACC’s top six. This is the first live test of that call, and it comes against a Big 12 opponent in the Yellow Jackets’ building. A comfortable Tech win doesn’t refute the position by itself — one September home game against a middling Big 12 team is not much evidence either way. But losing it would be the sort of result that makes the preseason ranking look correct for the wrong reason, and we’d rather be right for the right one.

The total is 50.5, which suggests the market expects this to be decided by whichever offense functions rather than by field position.

Friday, September 4

Miami at Stanford (9:00 PM, ESPN) — The Hurricanes are 24.5-point favorites with a 94.1% win probability. The interesting part is not whether Miami wins.

Miami finished 2025 with a +30 sack differential, best in FBS. That number is also the reason for caution. The Hurricanes lost 14,601 career snaps off both lines of scrimmage, and a pass rush that dominant is usually a function of the four guys doing the rushing rather than the scheme calling for it. Darian Mensah arrives from Duke to replace a quarterback who was drafted. Miami is BSL’s No. 7 team, a 46% favorite in the ACC, and 71% to reach the playoff. That’s a lot of confidence pointed at a roster that has to rebuild in the trenches.

Stanford is worth a moment. Tavita Pritchard won his head coaching debut 37-27 over Hawaii on August 29, closing on a 14-6 run over the final nine minutes after the Rainbow Warriors had cut it to 23-21. Michigan transfer Davis Warren threw for 252 yards in his first game action in roughly 20 months. It was one game against a Mountain West opponent, and the Cardinal have now had five straight losing seasons. But a program that has spent half a decade getting run off the field won its opener and then got a Friday night home date against a playoff contender. That is not nothing.

Fresno State at USC (9:00 PM, FOX) — USC is laying 23.5 with a 92% win probability, and this is the Trojans’ second game in six days.

The first one was instructive in both directions. Jayden Maiava went 25-of-29 for 286 yards and two touchdowns, added a rushing score, and USC led San Jose State 35-3 through three quarters. Trent Mosley had seven catches for 118 in his debut, 52 of it after the catch, plus a 41-yard punt return. Six of the ten Trojans who caught a pass were playing their first game at USC. That is the version of the roster reload Lincoln Riley was selling.

Then San Jose State scored 23 points in the fourth quarter against USC’s backups and the final read 42-26. Riley said afterward the way his starters played deserved to be a single-digit game. He is right, and the caveat is that the fourth quarter counts too. Gary Patterson’s first game as defensive coordinator was mostly sharp and then wasn’t.

USC also played without defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart and receivers Tanook Hines and Terrell Anderson, all apparent injuries. Worth watching whether any of them are back Friday. BSL has the Trojans 15th nationally with a 33% playoff chance and 7% in the Big Ten, which is a hedge on exactly this question.

Saturday, September 5

Liberty at James Madison (12:00 PM, ESPNU) — James Madison is a 6.5-point favorite at 71.9%. The Dukes reached the 2025 playoff through the old access loophole and then lost Bob Chesney to UCLA. This is the first Saturday of finding out what’s left.

The broader Group of Six problem applies here. Only 23 of 76 returning all-conference players from the five non-power leagues stayed at the same school this offseason. Sustaining anything at that level now requires re-recruiting your own roster every winter, and JMU had to do it while also replacing the coach who built the thing.

Oregon State at Houston (12:00 PM, ESPN) — Houston is favored by 18.5, down from 20.5 earlier in the week, with a 91.3% win probability.

This is BSL’s sharpest published disagreement of the preseason. Phil Steele has Houston fourth in the Big 12. BSL has them seventh. The case for the lower ranking is not that the Cougars were bad. It’s that they were 6-1 in one-possession games, 4-1 in games decided by a field goal or less, won five times after trailing or being tied in the fourth quarter, and enjoyed the largest positive penalty margin in the country at 38 fewer than their opponents. Over four seasons Houston has ten wins by a field goal or less, most in the nation.

Nearly every indicator there points toward regression. None of them guarantee it. Willie Fritz has now built a four-year pattern of winning close games, and at some point a pattern that long stops being described as luck and starts being described as a team. We are not there yet, but the argument gets harder to make each year it repeats.

Oregon State is in the relaunched Pac-12 and opens on the road against a ranked opponent. BSL has the Beavers last in the new league’s title odds at 3%.

Towson at Navy (3:30 PM, CBSSN) — Navy is a 30.5-point favorite at 96.6%. Local interest for our purposes. Towson is FCS, Navy is a legitimate AAC contender, and the number reflects both facts.

Boise State at Oregon (3:30 PM, CBS) — The Ducks lay 24.5 with a 94.8% win probability, and that number deserves attention.

BSL put Boise State in the unpublished bracket as the Group of Six representative and made them a 34% favorite in the new Pac-12, the shortest price in the league. The market has them as a three-and-a-half touchdown underdog in Eugene. Both things can be true — Boise can be the best of the non-power teams and still get run out of Autzen — but there is recent history here worth remembering. In 2025 Boise came into the year as the presumptive G6 favorite, went to Tampa in Week 1, and lost to South Florida 34-7. The non-competitiveness of that loss shaped how the Broncos were viewed for months.

Four G5 teams have made the playoff. Their average losing margin is three touchdowns. Boise’s task Saturday is not to win. It’s to avoid handing the committee a data point.

Oregon is BSL’s second-ranked team with the top defensive line in the country and the fifth-best staff, and Dante Moore is second in the quarterback rankings. Drew Mehringer’s first game as offensive coordinator.

Baylor vs. Auburn (3:30 PM, ABC, Mercedes-Benz Stadium) — Note the venue. This is a neutral-site kickoff game in Atlanta, not a trip to Jordan-Hare. Auburn is a 7-point favorite at 72.9%, with the highest total on the board at 59.5.

Auburn is a BSL higher-than-consensus call. Alex Golesh arrives from South Florida, DJ Durkin runs the defense, and Byrum Brown follows Golesh over from USF to play quarterback. That’s a coordinator, a head coach, and a starting quarterback all learning a new building at once. The bet is that Golesh’s offense travels.

Baylor has a regression argument running the other direction. The Bears fumbled 14 times and lost 12 of them. Their opponents fumbled 8 times and recovered 6. An 18.2% recovery rate on their own fumbles was the worst in FBS. Fumble recovery is close to random over a full season, and Baylor was on the wrong end of it about as thoroughly as a team can be. That should even out. It doesn’t mean the Bears are good.

These two met in Waco last September and Auburn won 38-24 behind 308 rushing yards.

Clemson at LSU (7:30 PM, ABC) — LSU is favored by 10.5 at 75.3%. The model is a bit lower than the number implies, though not dramatically.

Same matchup as last year’s opener, reversed. LSU won 17-10 in Death Valley in 2025, holding Clemson to 32 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Now it’s Baton Rouge, and almost everything else is different. Lane Kiffin is in his first year at LSU with Blake Baker running the defense and Sam Leavitt in from Arizona State at quarterback. Clemson has a new defensive coordinator in Tom Allen and a new offensive coordinator in Chad Morris.

Clemson entered 2025 with real hype and finished with two losses in three weeks. They enter 2026 unranked. That is a fast fall for a program that was a preseason top-five team a year ago, and this is the game that either starts the correction or confirms it.

One thing to keep in view: LSU’s schedule. SP+ ranks it 19th-toughest in the country, FPI has it 11th. Both are national ranks, and both say the Tigers will not get many soft weeks. BSL published LSU at 42% to make the playoff with an unpublished revision down to 40% after the FPI data arrived. The revision looks defensible.

UCLA at California (10:30 PM, ESPN) — California is a 1.5-point home favorite at 57.9%. This line moved. Earlier in the week the number had UCLA favored by 1.5 on the road, so it has crossed the three-point key number in the wrong direction for the Bruins.

Two first-year head coaches. Bob Chesney comes to UCLA from James Madison. Tosh Lupoi takes over at Cal after running Oregon’s defense. BSL flagged Cal as the ACC dark horse in the preview, and a Week 1 win over a Big Ten opponent, however modest that Big Ten opponent may be, would be a real start on that argument.

Kickoff is 10:30 Eastern, which means most of the audience for the closest game on Saturday’s board will be asleep for it.

Sunday, September 6

Washington State at Washington (4:00 PM, NBC) — The Huskies lay 21.5 with an 87.9% win probability. That gap is smaller than it looks but real: a three-touchdown favorite usually grades out in the low 90s, and ESPN is shaving a few points off. Rivalry games get shaved. Sometimes correctly.

Washington State is a member of the relaunched Pac-12, which now runs a seven-game round robin plus a flex week in Week 13. The Apple Cup survived the realignment. BSL has Washington 19th nationally at 22% to make the playoff, and has Washington State sixth in the new Pac-12 at 10%.

Louisville at Ole Miss (7:30 PM, ABC) — Ole Miss is a 6.5-point favorite at 73.6%, and this is the most interesting game of the weekend for anyone tracking BSL’s published positions, because two of them collide in it.

Louisville is a higher-than-consensus call. The case is specific. Isaac Brown averaged 8.75 yards per carry, first nationally by more than a full yard over second place. His backup Keyjuan Brown was third at 7.33. Edge rusher Clev Lubin carries the highest returning edge grade in FBS since 2024, with 110 pressures and a 24% win rate that led all P4 edges. That is a defensible foundation for a team most people have outside the top 20.

Ole Miss is the counterweight. The Rebels are ninth in the polls, BSL had them tenth at 40% to reach the playoff, and Pete Golding takes over from Lane Kiffin after running LSU’s defense. Trinidad Chambliss won his eligibility case in court and starts, and he is third in BSL’s quarterback rankings.

A Louisville win in Oxford would be the single most useful early result for the preview’s credibility. A comfortable Ole Miss win would put the Louisville call under real pressure by Week 2.

Wisconsin at Notre Dame (7:30 PM, NBC) — Notre Dame lays 20.5 at 94.3%.

The Irish carry BSL’s highest playoff probability in the entire preview at 78%, ahead of Ohio State. The supporting numbers are strong. Notre Dame returns 72% of its snaps, the most in the country. Its explosive play differential last season was +7.5%, best in FBS. The offensive line allowed 12 sacks and the team averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and that line is ranked first in BSL’s unit rankings with Joe Rudolph coaching it. Cornerback Leonard Moore has allowed 19 completions for a first down in his career, none of them while trailing, and four in his last eleven games.

The number to watch is health rather than performance. Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa was on modified activity in early August coming off a November ACL tear, and Marcus Freeman was hopeful he’d be available for the opener. That status is unconfirmed as of publication and worth checking before kickoff.

Notre Dame has no conference championship to fall back on. Every September result is a playoff résumé item whether it looks like one or not.

Monday, September 7

SMU at Florida State (7:30 PM, ESPN) — SMU is a 3-point road favorite. ESPN gives them a 51.5% chance to win. That is the widest model-versus-market gap on the entire board, and it closes the weekend.

A three-point road favorite normally projects somewhere in the high 50s. ESPN has this as a coin flip. Either the model sees something in Florida State that the market doesn’t, or it is discounting SMU’s road number. Worth flagging honestly: we do not know which, and it is a hunch rather than a finding to say the model is picking up on the Seminoles’ home environment.

Florida State beat New Mexico State 34-17 on August 29. That tells us the Seminoles took care of an FCS-adjacent opponent and not much else.

The relevant BSL context is that Florida State does not appear anywhere in the published ACC title odds. Miami 46, SMU 13, Louisville 13, Clemson 11, Virginia Tech 6, Pitt 4, field 7. The Seminoles are inside that 7% field. SMU sits third at 13% and is ranked 19th nationally. If FSU wins this game at home on Labor Day night, that field number gets revisited in Week 2, and we’ll say so.

What Week 0 Already Told Us

Three results from August 29 carry forward.

Virginia 34, NC State 8. Beau Pribula went 9-of-11 for 155 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 110 more on 15 carries, the first Virginia quarterback to hit 100 rushing yards in a game since Brennan Armstrong in 2022. The Cavaliers ran it 57 times for 258 yards, converted all four of their fourth downs, and put together a 23-play, 75-yard drive that consumed 12:15. NC State managed 168 total yards at 3.3 per play.

BSL has Virginia on the record as a lower-than-consensus team. That call looks worse than it did a week ago. The reasoning behind it was partly that Virginia returns 48,313 career snaps, the most in FBS, which is a roster built on accumulated age rather than accumulated talent. Saturday suggested the accumulated age is playing well. We’ll keep the position and keep testing it.

North Carolina 15, TCU 10 in Dublin. Billy Edwards Jr. threw for 232 yards with no touchdown passes, North Carolina lost two fumbles, and the Tar Heels won anyway because TCU took 11 penalties for 100 yards and went 1-for-5 on fourth down. TCU scored 10 in the first quarter and nothing after.

USC 42, San Jose State 26. Covered above.

The post 2026 College Football: Week 1 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The season will culminate with Super Bowl 61, February 14th, 2027 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood — meaning the preseason favorite is chasing a Lombardi in its own building.

We preview each of the 16 games on the opening slate, as all 32 teams will be in-action.

Our full season preview and initial Power Rankings can be found here.

Week 1 Games

All lines from FanDuel. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Wednesday September 9th

New England at Seattle – A Super Bowl LX rematch to open the year, which the league does not get to script very often. Seattle won 14 games, lost three others by a combined nine points, and DVOA rated them the third-best champion it has ever measured. So why do we have them second and not first? Klint Kubiak left for Las Vegas, Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City, and Brian Fleury has never called plays at any level of pro football. Zach Charbonnet was moved to the reserve/PUP list Sunday and will miss at least the first four games, Nick Emmanwori opened camp on PUP and is questionable, and the entire backfield has been banged up all summer. Seattle also signed Terrion Arnold after Detroit released him, though he isn’t expected to be available Wednesday. That’s a lot to put on Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Game 1. The defense should still travel — Macdonald was the unanimous No. 1 defensive play-caller in CBS’s poll, the only coach in either poll to be listed first on every ballot — though losing Boye Mafe to Cincinnati costs them something off the edge. New England is the more interesting evaluation to me. Drake Maye led the entire NFL in both EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expectation last year, and it wasn’t close on the second one. Then the postseason came and the offense got overwhelmed by a run of elite defenses. Was that the quarterback or the supporting cast? A.J. Brown was brought in to answer that, and the secondary — Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Craig Woodson, Kevin Byard — is still the best unit on the roster. New England also lost a long list of defensive contributors, and I’m not sure they’re deep enough up-front to hold up over 17 games. Seattle is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 44.5, and given a 62.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: A.J. Brown against Devon Witherspoon. New England traded for Brown to give Maye a receiver who wins without scheme help. Witherspoon grades a 9 and just signed for $132 million. Somebody’s offseason thesis takes a hit on Wednesday night.

Thursday September 10th

San Francisco vs LA Rams (East Melbourne, Australia) – The preseason favorite opens 10,000 miles from home. The Rams are the closest thing to a superteam the league has had in a while: Clay grades them with both the No. 1 offense and the No. 1 defense, the only team in his guide to lead both, and Les Snead got there by trading Jared Verse and three picks for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Matthew Stafford is the reigning MVP at 38. And on Sunday they added Aaron Donald, who unretired on a one-year, $20 million deal with incentives that can push it to $30 million. He hasn’t played since 2023, he’s 35, and he spent his first day back in a team meeting and individual drills while the staff ramps him up — so whether he’s on the field in Melbourne is a separate question from whether he’s on the roster. But pairing him with Garrett is the kind of thing that gets a team declared a champion in August, which is exactly when it means the least. The problem this week is who actually plays. Puka Nacua practiced Sunday and is questionable with a groin injury, which is better news than it looked a week ago, though the off-field questions are still attached. Alaric Jackson is questionable while managing his blood clot issue. Myles Garrett sat out Sunday’s practice with the knee and is also questionable. You can subtract enough pieces from a superteam that it stops looking like one, and an international opener is a strange place to find out. San Francisco won 12 games last year and a road playoff game in Philadelphia. In most divisions they’d be expected to host in January; in this one they’re penciled in third. The offense has real talent and real mileage — Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk, with Trent Williams at 38 — and Christian Kirk went on injured reserve Sunday with a calf injury. Kittle is expected to practice this week as he pushes to play in Australia, which tells you how much this offense needs him, coming off an Achilles tear. Christian McCaffrey was excellent as a receiver out of the backfield but averaged 3.9 yards per carry as a runner, well below his norms. If Brock Purdy plays 17 games this is a contender. If he plays nine again, it isn’t. Watch 2026 second-rounder De’Zhaun Stribling, who has pushed for a role with a lot of targets vacated, though a shoulder injury kept him out of the preseason finale. The Rams are 3.5 point favorites with a total of 48.5, and given a 57.6% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Myles Garrett against Trent Williams. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year, coming off a record 23 sacks and managing knee swelling all camp, against a 38-year-old left tackle with six straight 85-plus grades. Both of them are being asked to be what they were, and neither has anything left to prove except availability.

Sunday September 13th

Buffalo at Houston – Probably the best game on the early slate, and two teams we have in the AFC field. Joe Brady’s first game as a head coach comes against a defense that finished first in total defense and second in scoring last season after DeMeco Ryans handed play-calling to Matt Burke. Buffalo’s offense should be fine — Clay grades it second in the league, DJ Moore arrives from Chicago to join Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman — both of whom are questionable, Coleman with a foot and toe issue — and James Cook is the reigning rushing champion. The question is the other side of the ball, and it’s the whole reason Sean McDermott isn’t there anymore. Buffalo finished first in the NFL in rushing offense by EPA and 31st in rushing defense, the widest split of any contender, and then turned it over four times in a divisional-round loss in Denver. Now Jim Leonhard installs a new scheme. Nineteen different defensive play-callers drew a vote in CBS’s poll — the widest spread of any category they surveyed — and Leonhard finished with exactly one point, from a single tenth-place ballot. Clay also grades the Buffalo linebacker corps a 3, the lowest mark of any contender at any position. Houston’s side is C.J. Stroud, who ranked seventh in EPA per dropback from October on behind a bad line and no run game, and then had a rough January. The entire offseason went into helping him: Braden Smith, Wyatt Teller, David Montgomery from Detroit. Smith was carted off the practice field in late August and is questionable, which is not what you want from the tackle you signed to fix the problem, and the receiver room already lost Jayden Higgins and Tank Dell. Montgomery giving this offense a real play-action game is the likeliest bridge between average Stroud and top-third Stroud. Buffalo is our AFC favorite. This is a genuine test of that. Buffalo is a 1.5 point road favorite with a total of 44.5, and given a 54.2% chance of winning — tied with Minnesota for the tightest number on the board, which feels about right.

Key to the Game: Early downs against David Montgomery. Buffalo finished 31st in rushing defense by EPA and is installing a new scheme under a coordinator who drew one point in CBS’s poll. Houston imported Montgomery specifically to make its play-action game work. If the Bills can’t get Houston into obvious passing downs, Rousseau and Chubb never get to rush.

Baltimore at Indianapolis – We will have a larger write-up on this game later. Baltimore is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 48.5, and given a 61.4% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Lamar Jackson under center against Lou Anarumo’s pressure packages.

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati – Cincinnati finally spent on defense, and the first assignment is a good one. The Bengals sent the No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence and added Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger, and now Lawrence lines up against Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, who allowed almost nothing between them last season. Here’s the thing about Cincinnati that keeps getting overstated: this defense doesn’t have to be good. It has to be average, which it hasn’t been since 2022. With Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Clay’s No. 3 offense and the second-easiest schedule in the league, average defense probably gets them into the playoffs. Chase missed practice in late August with a knee issue and is questionable, which is the one thing that would change all of that. Burrow is also one of only four quarterbacks voted into Sando’s Tier 1, and everybody spent August discussing Lamar Jackson’s missed games while ignoring that Burrow has missed a comparable number over the same stretch. Tampa Bay arrives with terrible vibes and real talent. Baker Mayfield called the club’s reported two-year, $100-million-plus offer disrespectful and will play out his deal, Vita Vea has requested a trade and is holding in, Mike Evans left for San Francisco and Lavonte David retired. A healthy Mayfield with a chip on his shoulder is not the worst thing that can happen to an offense. Emeka Egbuka drew 127 targets as a rookie and is questionable with a toe injury that Todd Bowles expects him to play through. Zac Robinson is the new coordinator. Watch Bucky Irving, who averaged 5.4 yards a carry over 207 attempts as a rookie and 3.4 over 173 last year in an injury-shortened season. One of those is real. Cincinnati is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 51.5, and given a 60.1% chance of winning. That total is the highest of the week, which tells you what the market thinks of both defenses.

Match-Up to Watch: Dexter Lawrence against Tampa Bay’s interior. Cincinnati gave up the No. 10 overall pick for exactly this — a player who can wreck a game from the inside — and Tampa’s line was the reason we put them fourth in our offensive line rankings. The Bengals’ entire season rests on the defense being average. This is the first data point.

Cleveland at Jacksonville – Todd Monken finally landed a top job, a hire that drove respected DC Jim Schwartz out of the building, and he has settled a four-way quarterback competition by naming Deshaun Watson the Week 1 starter, over Shedeur Sanders and rookie Taylen Green — Dillon Gabriel went on injured reserve with a back injury Monken says isn’t serious. None of the four had a good August, and Watson ranked 31st of 35 in Sando’s tiers with some of the harshest commentary in the entire survey. Which makes the real question whether this is a competition or an audition for the 2027 draft — and if Sanders is starting by the second half of the season and looking like he can hold the job in 2027, that’s a productive year for Cleveland regardless of the record. Here’s the odd part: the Browns defense is legitimately good. Cleveland finished first in the NFL in passing defense by EPA per dropback last season, the 2025 draft delivered Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger plus Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr., and Jared Verse arrived in the Garrett trade as a cost-controlled young edge who actually fits the timeline. The offense finished 32nd in that same metric — dead last, and not close. Jacksonville is the popular sleeper of the summer on the strength of not losing from Week 11 through Week 18. I’m out on it. There’s a turnover-luck component to that closing kick nobody should ignore, they lost Travis Etienne and All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd, and there was no cap space and no draft capital to replace either after the Travis Hunter trade. Their only premium pick went to a rotational blocking tight end. It comes down to how you evaluate Trevor Lawrence, who ranked fourth in the NFL in total EPA and success rate from November on and drew MVP votes, but still finished 27th in completion percentage over expectation on the full year. Hunter as a full-time corner on a defense that ranked first in EPA per play down the stretch is the fun part. Quinn Ewers came over from Miami to back up. Jacksonville is a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 67% chance of winning. That’s a lot of respect for a team we have going 9-8, and not much for a Cleveland defense that finished first in the league against the pass — though a 40.5 total says the market does believe in that defense, just not in anything the Browns do with the ball.

Match-Up to Watch: Joshua Hines-Allen against Cleveland’s tackles. Hines-Allen grades a 9 on a defense that ranked first in EPA per play from Week 11 on. Watson has not held up under pressure in years, and Monken’s protection plan is the most interesting thing about a game that could otherwise be unwatchable.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – Aaron Rodgers turns 43 in December and has announced this is the last one. Mike McCarthy inherits a franchise that never had a losing season in 20 years under Mike Tomlin, and he inherits a quarterback whose arm is fine and whose legs are gone. In 2025 Rodgers posted both the lowest average time to throw and the lowest average depth of target in the NFL, finished 23rd in EPA per dropback and 33rd in success rate, and has basically stopped working the middle of the field. Expect defenses to crowd the line and dare him to get it out immediately, over and over, and expect Pittsburgh to lose more of these than the front office wants to admit if he can’t. The supporting cast is better than people realize — Michael Pittman Jr. and Rico Dowdle join DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth, with first-round tackle Max Iheanachor added. Pittman (hamstring) and Metcalf are both expected to play, and Jalen Ramsey has been activated off PUP. And Clay grades this the No. 3 defense in football, with the best edge group in the league in T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig and a 37-year-old Cameron Heyward who still grades a 9. Which is a rough draw for Atlanta, who as of this writing still haven’t named a starter. Michael Penix Jr. sat out the preseason finale but has said he believes he’ll be available here, so the assumption that this was Tua Tagovailoa’s job by default no longer holds — and given both of their injury histories, Kevin Stefanski may end up using both before October. Atlanta also traded for Gervon Dexter Sr. on Sunday to shore up the interior, though he arrives with a hamstring issue. Right tackle is a limiting issue on a roster where both quarterbacks are left-handed and Jawaan Taylor is protecting the blind side. Kevin Stefanski’s job here is to keep whoever plays upright and turnover-free. Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts can handle a fair amount of the rest. People forget Pittsburgh won this division at 10-7. They are not an afterthought. Pittsburgh is a 3 point favorite with a total of 42.5, and given a 58.1% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: T.J. Watt against Jawaan Taylor. Both Atlanta quarterbacks are left-handed, which makes right tackle the blind side, and right tackle was already the weak point on this roster. Watt has spent a decade making that a problem for people. If Tagovailoa gets hit early, this is over quickly.

New Orleans at Detroit – Detroit has the easiest schedule in football by both models, which is why Clay projects 12 wins and the NFL’s second-best record, and this is a soft start to it. The catch is that the Lions are the banged-up team. Cade Mays, signed specifically to fix the interior line, is out 8-10 weeks with a wrist injury. Terrion Arnold was released after criminal charges and has signed in Seattle. Both starting safeties are now on the reserve/PUP list — Kerby Joseph with a knee, Brian Branch with an Achilles — meaning neither is eligible until Week 5, and Sharp had already dropped Detroit three spots on the secondary before that. Backup center Seth McLaughlin is in concussion protocol, so the interior is thin behind the thin. Taylor Decker requested his release, which moves Penei Sewell to left tackle. There’s plenty here still — Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson and Jack Campbell all grade 9, Sam LaPorta an 8, and Jared Goff keeps posting numbers. He’s another quarterback who isn’t elite and is unquestionably good enough to win with. Jahmyr Gibbs no longer has David Montgomery to share the load, and whether Isiah Pacheco has anything left is a real question — he’s questionable with a back injury on top of the knee. New Orleans was the under-the-radar team that nearly became our NFC South pick. The Saints went 5-4 in games Tyler Shough started and 1-7 otherwise, added Travis Etienne and guard David Edwards, drafted Jordyn Tyson eighth overall and paid Chris Olave up to $132 million. Tyson is on injured reserve with a hamstring and out roughly two months. The backfield is worse off than that: Alvin Kamara sprained an MCL and is out at least a month, and Devin Neal and Ty Chandler are both on IR, so Etienne is carrying it alone. Kellen Moore is in Year 2 with a defined starter and Brandon Staley runs the defense. The problem: Shough had the league’s worst pressure-to-sack ratio and a bottom-ten off-target rate, and the Saints have no depth in the trenches with Bryan Bresee lost for the year. Hutchinson against that line is the matchup. Detroit is a 7 point favorite with a total of 49.5, and given a 73.5% chance of winning — the largest number of the early window.

Match-Up to Watch: Aidan Hutchinson against a Saints line with no depth. Tyler Shough had the worst pressure-to-sack ratio in the NFL last season, and Bryan Bresee is already lost for the year. Hutchinson grades a 9 and was playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level before his 2024 injury. This is the mismatch of the early window.

Chicago at Carolina – Two 2025 division winners, and two teams we’re projecting to come back to the pack. Chicago forced a league-leading 33 turnovers, which papered over a defense that was ordinary down to down, and then the offseason went sideways: Drew Dalman surprise-retired, DJ Moore was traded to Buffalo, Luther Burden III missed the preseason with a groin injury but was running routes last week, and the secondary took two real hits: Kyler Gordon went to the reserve/PUP list Sunday and can’t play until Week 5, while Coby Bryant isn’t expected back until January. Jaylon Johnson is questionable with an arm injury on top of that. Sharp ranks the schedule third-hardest. I still believe in Ben Johnson — he fixed the sack problem in one offseason and Chicago graded fifth in both PFF pass blocking and run blocking — but Caleb Williams completed 58.1 percent of his throws last season, nowhere near Johnson’s stated 70 percent goal, and ranked 34th in completion percentage over expectation while setting the franchise passing record and winning Chicago’s first playoff game since 2011. The gap between the highlight throws and the routine ones is the entire Year 3 question. Watch Colston Loveland; Johnson built his Detroit offenses around tight end usage and this is the first year he has the personnel. Carolina won the division on a three-way 8-9 tiebreaker, then had the best offseason in the South — Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd, Rasheed Walker, first-round tackle Monroe Freeling — and has been bitten harder by injuries than any team in football. Nic Scourton and rookie receiver Chris Brazzell are out for the year. Both starting tackles are out too — Taylor Moton with a blood clot and Ikem Ekwonu with a knee — and neither is expected back before late October. We took the over on Clay’s 5.9-win projection anyway, mostly on Derrick Brown, Lloyd and Tetairoa McMillan — though Brown, Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips are all carrying questionable tags into the opener, which is a lot of the reason we liked them. Chicago is a 2.5 point road favorite with a total of 47.5, and given a 61.7% chance of winning. Two division champions, and the market has the road team laying points.

Match-Up to Watch: Derrick Brown against Chicago’s replacement for Drew Dalman. Dalman’s retirement in August dropped the Bears from a top-three line to eighth in our rankings, and Brown grades a 9 as the one Carolina defender who can win a game by himself. Ben Johnson’s line schemes are the tell on this offense. First test is a hard one.

New York Jets at Tennessee – Two teams nobody will watch, and both are more interesting than the records will be. New York did not record a single interception in 2025. Not one. They also finished 32nd in passing defense by EPA per dropback, and responded by rebuilding most of the defensive starting lineup and having Aaron Glenn take over play-calling himself. Clay now grades the Jets’ linebackers eighth-best in the league and the defense 10th, with Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety and T’Vondre Sweat, Harrison Phillips and David Onyemata inside, plus a draft class of David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr. and D’Angelo Ponds. The offense is the problem: Geno Smith is back where his career started, coming off a league-high 17 interceptions and a 34th-place finish in EPA per dropback, and Clay projects 14 more picks. Tennessee gives Cam Ward the most credible staff the franchise has put together in a decade — Robert Saleh, Gus Bradley on defense, Brian Daboll on offense — plus Carnell Tate at No. 4 overall to go with Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley. Ward finished 33rd of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, success rate and yards per dropback as a rookie, and improved in all three over the back half of the year while nearly halving his sack rate after Brian Callahan was fired. Jeffery Simmons grades a 9 and projects for a league-leading 9.3 sacks among interior linemen. Cedric Gray, fifth in the NFL with 160 tackles as a first-time starter, is the centerpiece of the new zone scheme. Six wins isn’t a playoff team. It’s a real step. Tennessee is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 39.5, and given a 61.8% chance of winning. That’s the lowest total on the board, and nobody should be surprised.

Match-Up to Watch: Jeffery Simmons against the Jets’ interior. Simmons projects for a league-leading 9.3 sacks among interior linemen, and Geno Smith threw 17 picks last season while being asked to hold the ball. Interior pressure is how you turn that into turnovers, which is the one thing this Jets defense could not generate at all in 2025.

Washington at Philadelphia – A division game in Week 1 with real stakes for both. Philadelphia won 11 games and a division title and spent the entire offseason unhappy about it. A.J. Brown is gone, Kevin Patullo was fired, and Sean Mannion — who nobody can evaluate yet — installs the Shanahan-McVay system. Fangio is still there, and the defense is the reason to believe: Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the secondary, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis up front, Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun both grading 9. The safety group grades a 3 and Jonathan Greenard’s pectoral injury has him listed out for this one, so it isn’t airtight. Cooper DeJean is questionable as well. On Jalen Hurts, the criticism has gotten excessive. He’s been to two Super Bowls, won one, was its MVP, and has three Pro Bowls. Ruiz’s film read is that the 2025 efficiency decline traced to a bad scheme rather than to any decline in Hurts, and Patullo lost his job over it. Washington went from the NFC Championship Game to 5-12 and dead last in the NFL in yards allowed, and now Laremy Tunsil is out with a torn triceps. Jer’Zhan Newton tore a pectoral and isn’t expected back until November, which thins an already bad front. Dan Quinn replaced both coordinators — David Blough on offense, Daronte Jones on defense — and there’s a heavy Maryland flavor to the additions, with former Terps Stefon Diggs and Chigoziem Okonkwo both likely to help immediately and Nick Cross joining the secondary. Former Raven Odafe Oweh gets a chance to build on what he did in Los Angeles. Jayden Daniels grades a 7 and is an MVP-caliber player when upright. Behind a line missing Tunsil, against Fangio, on the road, is not the opener you’d draw up for him. Philadelphia is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 45.5, and given a 65.5% chance of winning.

Key to the Game: Whether Washington can protect Jayden Daniels without Laremy Tunsil. Daniels is an MVP-caliber player when upright, and he is walking into Fangio’s defense with Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis inside and his left tackle on injured reserve. Everything else about Washington’s season is downstream of him staying on the field.

Green Bay at Minnesota – Green Bay was 9-3-1 on December 7 and top-five in several defensive categories. Then Micah Parsons tore his ACL, they lost four straight, and they blew a 21-3 lead to Chicago in the wild card. Parsons was moved to the reserve/PUP list Sunday and will miss the first four games, so this is the version without him. Josh Jacobs was placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List the same day and is also out, which leaves MarShawn Lloyd — the former DeMatha standout who had six carries in 2024 and missed 2025 entirely — carrying the backfield. Sharp has the Packers fourth on the strength of Jordan Love ranking sixth in EPA per dropback over three seasons. We can’t get there with this much rehab on the roster. Love has enormous ability and it falls to him to elevate a receiver group in Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden that all has talent and all has questions; a healthy Tucker Kraft is a top-tier tight end and probably the swing piece, and he’s expected to be full go here. Minnesota is the strangest situation in football. Kyler Murray won the job outright and J.J. McCarthy’s camp was described by one veteran beat writer as the football yips, which is why Clay grades the quarterback room a 4. Murray has started multiple seasons hot enough to draw MVP chatter by Week 6 and has never sustained it, with the usual explanation being that he wears down over a full year. The skill talent around him here is better than anything he’s had, starting with Justin Jefferson. And Brian Flores is the best coordinator alive at extracting production from a unit without stars — his defense finished third in the NFL in passing EPA allowed while the offense finished 29th. Jonathan Greenard’s departure for Philadelphia will be felt. Minnesota is a 1.5 point home favorite with a total of 45.5, but Green Bay is given a 57.4% chance of winning. The market and the model disagree here, which is usually a sign the number is being set on Kyler Murray rather than on the rosters.

Match-Up to Watch: Kyler Murray against a Green Bay secondary that has to cover without Micah Parsons. Jonathan Gannon’s corners were the acknowledged weak spot last season and were being propped up by pressure. Parsons isn’t back until Week 6. Murray is at his best early in seasons and against defenses that let him extend plays.

Arizona at LA Chargers – Mike McDaniel’s first game calling plays since leaving Miami, and the reason we have the Chargers eighth while NFL.com has them 17th. Los Angeles won 11 games without Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater for most of the season. Both are back, though Slater has been limited and carries a questionable tag. Justin Herbert took 54 sacks behind the league’s highest pressure rate last year, playing through a broken hand that needed midseason surgery, in front of a line that shuffled through nearly three dozen starting combinations — and still set a career high in scramble rate and averaged nine yards per dropback outside of structure. He checked in sixth in Sando’s tiers. The skill group is the deepest of his career: Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, Oronde Gadsden II, David Njoku, Charlie Kolar, with Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell behind Hampton. The interior line was already the worry and it got worse when Tyler Biadasz tore his ACL and was lost for the year, then worse again when guard Branson Taylor went to injured reserve on Sunday. Losing Jesse Minter to Baltimore should matter, and as Ravens fans we’d like to think it will, but Harbaugh always finds a path and always builds physical teams. Arizona draws the hardest schedule in the league by both models with a quarterback room Clay grades a 3 — Jacoby Brissett starting, Gardner Minshew behind him, third-rounder Carson Beck lurking. There are weapons: Trey McBride grades a 9, No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love an 8 though he’s questionable with an ankle and is now the entire backfield after James Conner and Trey Benson both landed on injured reserve, plus Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Paris Johnson Jr. and Isaac Seumalo. Mike LaFleur’s first job is getting Harrison back on track after two years of offensive dysfunction. No excuse for the Chargers to lose this one at home. The Chargers are 10.5 point favorites with a total of 46.5, and given an 81.1% chance of winning — the biggest number of the week by a wide margin.

Match-Up to Watch: The Chargers’ interior line against Walter Nolen and Josh Sweat. Los Angeles is elite at tackle with Alt and Slater back and completely unproven inside, and it got worse when Tyler Biadasz tore his ACL. Arizona’s front is the one part of that roster with real juice. A 10.5-point favorite has one plausible way to lose this.

Miami at Las Vegas – The two lowest-graded rosters in Clay’s guide, and it isn’t especially close. Miami projects for 2.4 wins with the 32nd-ranked offense, the 32nd-ranked defense and roughly $180 million in dead cap after cutting Tyreek Hill and moving Tua Tagovailoa, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jaylen Waddle and Bradley Chubb. Malik Willis gets his first Week 1 start with no receiver on the roster grading above a 3. Worth remembering: this was a 7-10 team a year ago. The collapse is one offseason old, not chronic, and De’Von Achane, Zach Sieler and Jordyn Brooks are real players. Las Vegas is the more interesting situation. Klint Kubiak asked for a veteran quarterback so he wouldn’t have to throw the No. 1 overall pick into the fire, and got Kirk Cousins. Mendoza looked sharp in August, which means the question isn’t whether he plays this year but when. Tyler Linderbaum arrives from Baltimore to fix the center spot, Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker rebuild the linebacker room, and Maxx Crosby (projected for 10.9 sacks) and Brock Bowers both grade a 9, with Ashton Jeanty in Year 2 and an ankle the staff says it’s counting on him to play through. Same core problem as Miami, though: no receiver above a 5. Las Vegas is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 59% chance of winning. That is a surprisingly small number against a team projected for 2.4 wins, and it says as much about the Raiders as it does about Miami.

Match-Up to Watch: Maxx Crosby against Miami’s tackles. Crosby grades a 9 and projects for 10.9 sacks, and Malik Willis is making his first Week 1 start with no receiver on the roster grading above a 3. If Miami can’t run with Achane, this becomes a very long afternoon in the desert.

Dallas at New York Giants – John Harbaugh’s first game in something other than purple, and the schedule handed him a division game in prime time. New York’s front seven is the reason to watch: Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux is Clay’s second-best edge room, with rookie Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds behind them under new coordinator Dennard Wilson. Carter had 72 pressures as a rookie, including a league-best 48 in under 2.5 seconds, and only four sacks. The finishing is coming. The problem is that Paulson Adebo, Dru Phillips and Greg Newsome II are all questionable and Malik Nabers is questionable with a knee, which is a bad combination against this offense. Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard followed Harbaugh from Baltimore and should both be productive, and Odell Beckham Jr. is back in a Giants uniform. Jaxson Dart debuted atop Sando’s Tier 3, has obvious talent, and has a playing style that doesn’t inspire much confidence about his availability. Dallas had the league’s second-best offense last season — two 1,000-yard receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the NFL’s third-rated passer in Dak Prescott, a quietly productive year from Javonte Williams — and finished 7-9-1 because they couldn’t stop anybody, ranking 31st in passing defense and 30th in rushing defense by EPA. So they threw everything at that side of the ball: Rashan Gary, Von Miller, Dee Winters, Otito Ogbonnia, Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant, first-round picks on Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence, Christian Parker hired from Philadelphia, and Broderick Jones from Pittsburgh up front. If that defense can be merely average, Dallas is a playoff team. They’re our first team out of the NFC field at 9-8. Dallas is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 48.5, and given a 55.1% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens against a Giants corner room carrying three questionable starters. Dallas had the league’s second-best offense last season and Prescott was the NFL’s third-rated passer. John Harbaugh’s debut is going to be decided by whether that front seven can get home before the coverage breaks.

Monday September 14th

Denver at Kansas City – Best possible way to end the weekend. Kansas City enters ninth in FPI, its worst preseason ranking since 2018, coming off a six-win season in which it went 1-9 in one-score games and lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in December. He was cleared to practice fully when camp opened. The real question isn’t whether he plays, it’s what he looks like scrambling on a repaired knee and whether he starts getting the ball out quicker. Kenneth Walker III gives Andy Reid and a returning Eric Bieniemy the downhill run game and play-action threat they haven’t had in three years, though he’s questionable with ankle swelling the club expects him to play through. Mahomes, for his part, is reported to be on track to start. Two first-round picks and a second went into the defense, and Spagnuolo’s units almost always look better in December than September; the rebuilt secondary leaning on rookie Mansoor Delane is the actual worry. Denver returns 20 of 22 starters from an AFC Championship Game roster, sent first-, third- and fourth-round picks to Miami for Jaylen Waddle, has the best offensive line in football, and led the NFL with 68 sacks, eleven clear of the field and four short of the 1984 Bears’ record. That last number needs an asterisk this week: Jonathon Cooper was placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List on Sunday, so one of the pieces that produced it isn’t available. We have them regressing from 14 wins to 10, but let’s be precise about why: that’s an 11-2 record in one-score games and a record 12 comeback wins evening out, not a verdict on the roster. Bo Nix finished fourth in the NFL in red-zone QBR and led the league outright in winning drives with seven. He also finished 26th in completion percentage over expectation and attempted only 40 passes between the hashmarks all season against 234 outside the numbers. Davis Webb spent the offseason working on getting him off his first read faster; opposing coordinators spent it making him look at the middle of the field. Five of Denver’s first six opponents made the 2025 playoffs, and it starts here. We have all three AFC West contenders at 10-7. This is the head-to-head that will look enormous in January. Kansas City is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 43, and given a 59.4% chance of winning. A 43 total for a Broncos-Chiefs opener is its own commentary on where these two offenses are.

Match-Up to Watch: Denver’s pass rush against Patrick Mahomes’ knee. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks, eleven clear of the field, with Nik Bonitto coming off a 14-sack season — and they’ll do it without Jonathon Cooper, who landed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List on Sunday. Mahomes was cleared to practice fully at the start of camp but has not taken a live hit since tearing his ACL in December. How he responds the first time Bonitto gets there is the most important thing that happens in Week 1.

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Below: full power rankings against the market and the models, over/under calls on all 32, a ranking of the eight divisions, the trench units that decide January, the ten best coaching staffs, division-by-division projections with a defining question for each team, and the five storylines that will shape the year.

Three outside inputs get referenced throughout. Clay is Mike Clay’s ESPN projection guide (updated August 12th), which produces a projected win total and 1-to-10 unit grades at ten positions for all 32 teams. Sharp is Warren Sharp’s work — both his strength-of-schedule model, where 1 is the easiest slate and 32 the hardest, and Raymond Summerlin’s Sharp Football power rankings. Line is the DraftKings win total. Where 2025 EPA rankings appear, they’re from The Ringer’s team pages; note that both Diante Lee’s power rankings and Steven Ruiz’s quarterback rankings there are February snapshots taken before free agency and the draft, so we’ve used the underlying data and film analysis rather than the orderings or the team labels.

Power Rankings Entering 2026

On the Chargers. NFL.com has them 17th and Clay projects 9.5 wins against what he rates the fourth-hardest schedule. But Sharp Football has them fifth, and we have them eighth — so this isn’t as lonely a position as it looked a week ago. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater both missed most of a season in which Los Angeles still won 11 games, and both are back. Mike McDaniel replaced Greg Roman as play-caller. Camp reports describe motion, constant personnel churn, and Justin Herbert diagnosing coverage pre-snap — from a team that ranked 24th in red-zone passer rating a year ago.

On the Packers. Sharp has Green Bay fourth, calling it an out-on-a-limb pick built on Jordan Love ranking sixth in EPA per dropback over three seasons. We can’t get there with Micah Parsons, Devonte Wyatt, Tucker Kraft and Zach Bako-Bewele all rehabbing and Josh Jacobs’ legal status unresolved.

Ranking the Eight Divisions

We have the NFC West first on top-end quality — the Rams, the champs, and a perennial January team — while NFL.com takes the NFC North for depth, and that’s a fair argument in a division where the 2025 champion (Chicago) finished ahead of a Lions team that tied for last at 9-8.

Our one real departure is at the bottom. NFL.com has the NFC South eighth, and the case is obvious: the 2025 division was decided by a three-way tiebreaker among 8-9 teams. But we’d rather have four teams that could all finish 8-9 than a division housing two of the league’s five worst rosters. Buffalo and New England are both very good. The Jets and Dolphins are projected for 9.7 combined wins by Clay’s model, and we have them at nine.

The Quarterback Tiers

Two industry surveys landed this summer, and they disagree in useful ways. Mike Sando’s annual tiers at The Athletic polled 50 coaches and executives on 35 veteran quarterbacks; ESPN separately surveyed more than 70 execs, coaches and scouts for a straight top 10.

Sando’s Tier 1 is four deep: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow. ESPN’s poll has Allen first and Mahomes second, with Stafford third — the two surveys agree almost entirely on who the elite are, and both moved Stafford up on the strength of his MVP season.

Tier 2 ballooned to 13, the largest in the survey’s history, and the ordering is where the interesting arguments live: Lamar Jackson (5), Justin Herbert (6), Dak Prescott (7), Drake Maye (8A), Jared Goff (8B), Jordan Love (10), Brock Purdy (11A), Caleb Williams (11B), Jayden Daniels (13), Baker Mayfield (14A), Sam Darnold (14B), Trevor Lawrence (16), Jalen Hurts (17). The lettered pairs are ties in Sando’s voting — Maye and Goff are jointly eighth and ninth, which is why the next name is 10th.

One caveat before anyone uses these as rankings: this is a perception survey, not a measurement. It tells you what evaluators believe, which is genuinely useful — those are the people who set trade markets and build game plans — but a coach’s ballot is not a metric.

With that said, three placements are worth flagging. Herbert at 6 is the highest any survey has put him. Hurts at 17, last in Tier 2 behind Darnold and Mayfield, tells you league evaluators remain dramatically less convinced by him than his team’s accomplishments would suggest — a gap that has persisted through a Super Bowl. And Nix at 18 says the league credits Denver’s 14 wins mostly to the roster around him — a reading the numbers both support and complicate, which we get into in the Broncos section. Our counter on Hurts is in the Eagles section below; the survey is worth reporting, not worth adopting.

Below the veterans: Jaxson Dart debuts at the top of Tier 3, Tua Tagovailoa fell to 26, Deshaun Watson sits 31st with brutal commentary attached, Michael Penix Jr. is 32nd, and J.J. McCarthy is 34th, with one voter offering that football looks hard for him.

Win Totals: Our Over/Under Call on All 32

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

Fifteen overs, seventeen unders, summing to 272 wins — so the standings that follow are internally consistent.

Five Teams Projected to Regress

1. Denver Broncos (14 wins → 10). Denver went 11-2 in one-score games last season and posted an NFL-record 12 comeback wins. That is not a repeatable baseline — but it’s also not luck alone, and the article’s earlier framing overstated it. Nix finished fourth in the NFL in red-zone QBR (82.6) and led the league outright in winning drives with seven. Payton’s teams are built to not take sacks, and Nix was sacked the ninth-fewest times among starters despite leading the league in both attempts (612) and dropbacks (667). Give them credit for the skill and still expect the record to come down. The Broncos remain excellent — a Bo Nix ankle fracture in the divisional round probably cost them a Super Bowl trip — but the close-game ledger evens out, and five of their first six opponents made the 2025 playoffs.

2. New England Patriots (14 → 10). New England rode one of the league’s softest schedules to Super Bowl LX and lost a long list of contributors: Stefon Diggs, Garrett Bradbury, K’Lavon Chaisson, Jahlani Tavai, Anfernee Jennings. Drake Maye is a legitimate top-five quarterback and A.J. Brown is a real addition — Clay still grades this the No. 4 roster in football. Ten wins and a wild-card berth is a good season here, and we’re less certain than most that Maye is ready to be the reason a team wins rather than a quarterback you can win with.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (13 → 9). The Jaguars didn’t lose from Week 11 through Week 18, and there’s a turnover-luck component to that nobody should ignore. They lost Travis Etienne and All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd, had no cap space and no draft capital after the Travis Hunter trade, and spent their only premium pick on a rotational blocking tight end. Trevor Lawrence’s surge was real; the roster around him is worse.

4. Chicago Bears (11 → 8). The reigning NFC North champions forced a league-leading 33 turnovers, which masked a defense that was ordinary down to down. Then came the third-hardest schedule by Sharp’s model, Drew Dalman’s surprise retirement, the DJ Moore trade to Buffalo, a groin injury costing Luther Burden III the preseason, and injuries to offseason signing Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon in the secondary. We still believe in Ben Johnson. We don’t believe in this number.

5. Seattle Seahawks (14 → 11). Regression, not decline. Klint Kubiak left for Las Vegas, Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City, Zach Charbonnet is working back from a torn ACL, and Nick Emmanwori opened camp on PUP. ESPN’s FPI cut Seattle’s defensive rating from 4.6 points per game to 2.1 on the general principle that elite defenses don’t stay elite. Note that John Schneider spent a first-round pick on Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price to address the backfield. Eleven wins and a deep January is still the likeliest outcome.

Five Teams That Look Improved

1. Baltimore Ravens (8 → 11). No returning player changes his team’s baseline more than a healthy Lamar Jackson. Trey Hendrickson is the most impactful edge addition any contender made, and Nnamdi Madubuike is back after neck surgery cost him nearly all of 2025. The schedule is fifth-easiest. Clay grades this the second-best roster in football.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (6 → 10). Kansas City went 1-9 in one-score games and lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in December. He was cleared to practice fully at the start of camp. Kenneth Walker III gives Andy Reid and returning coordinator Eric Bieniemy the early-down run game they haven’t had in three years. The rebuilt secondary leaning on rookie Mansoor Delane is the real worry.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (6 → 10). Joe Burrow has compared this roster to his 2019 LSU team, which is a lot, but Cincinnati finally invested on defense: the No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence, plus Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger. Clay projects 10.7 wins and the No. 3 offense with the second-easiest schedule, and we’ve landed essentially on the number. The defense doesn’t have to be good — it has to be average, which it has not been since 2022.

4. Los Angeles Chargers (11 → 11, but far better). Alt and Slater are healthy, McDaniel is calling plays, and the skill group — Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, Oronde Gadsden II, David Njoku, Charlie Kolar, with Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell behind Hampton — is the deepest of the Herbert era.

5. Tennessee Titans (3 → 6). Six wins isn’t a playoff team, but Robert Saleh with Gus Bradley on defense and Brian Daboll on offense is the most credible staff Tennessee has assembled in a decade. The front office added as many as six new defensive starters, and Carnell Tate at No. 4 overall finally gives Cam Ward a downfield weapon alongside Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley.

Top 8 Projected Offensive Lines

Our eight and Clay’s eight are the same eight teams, which is unusual and probably meaningful. Denver stands alone at the top with an 8 grade; the other seven all grade out at 7.

1. Denver Broncos — PFF’s No. 1 unit for a second straight year, with All-Pro guard Quinn Meinerz inside and Garett Bolles still holding up at left tackle. The foundation of everything Sean Payton does.
2. Philadelphia Eagles — All five starters return, including Lane Johnson, who has graded above 80.0 as a pass blocker for six consecutive seasons, and Jordan Mailata. Losing longtime line coach Jeff Stoutland to retirement is the wild card.
3. Los Angeles Rams — Arguably the best-performing line in football last year: second in pressure rate allowed, first in adjusted line yards, second-lowest stuff rate. Alaric Jackson’s availability is the question.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Tristan Wirfs earned a career-high 92.7 grade in 2025, and Luke Goedeke allowed neither a sack nor a hit across 416 pass-blocking snaps.
5. Buffalo Bills — Fourth in pressure rate, second in time to pressure, second in adjusted line yards, three years of continuity. Losing David Edwards costs them a spot.
6. San Francisco 49ers — Trent Williams turns 38 and posted his sixth straight 85-plus grade. San Francisco allowed the third-lowest pressure rate in football and added real depth behind the starters.
7. Los Angeles Chargers — Elite at tackle with Alt and Slater healthy, unproven on the interior with Cole Strange and rookie Jake Slaughter. The distance between those two facts is the Chargers’ season.
8. Chicago Bears — Joe Thuney grades a 9, Darnell Wright an 8. Dalman’s retirement drops them from top-three to here.

Just missed: Detroit, which added Cade Mays specifically to fix its interior and will now be without him for 8-10 weeks with a wrist injury, and Indianapolis, where Quenton Nelson and Bernhard Raimann anchor a group some outlets have inside their top five.

Top 8 Projected Defensive Lines

Clay grades interior and edge separately. Baltimore, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia lead the interior at 7; Pittsburgh and the Giants lead the edge at 8, with Houston and the Rams at 7. Combining both:

1. Los Angeles Rams — Myles Garrett won his second Defensive Player of the Year award and set the single-season sack record with 23 last year in Cleveland. He joins Kobie Turner, Poona Ford and Braden Fiske, with Byron Young opposite. Clay projects Garrett for 12.6 sacks. Aaron Donald has already worked out for the team.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers — The best pure pass-rush collection in football: T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, plus Cameron Heyward (a 9 grade at 37) and Derrick Harmon. Older than the rest of this tier and it hasn’t stopped mattering yet.
3. Philadelphia Eagles — A healthy Jalen Carter with Jordan Davis and Moro Ojomo may be the best interior trio in football, with Jalyx Hunt behind Jonathan Greenard. Greenard’s pec strain is the near-term concern.
4. Baltimore Ravens — Clay’s top-graded interior in the NFL: Madubuike and Travis Jones both grade 8, Calais Campbell a 7 in his 19th season. Hendrickson grades 8 on the edge. The questions are Madubuike’s health after neck surgery and whether Mike Green, coming off 3.5 rookie sacks, becomes the second rusher.
5. Seattle Seahawks — Leonard Williams grades a 9, Byron Murphy II a 7, Jarran Reed a 7. DeMarcus Lawrence still sets an edge. Losing Boye Mafe stings.
6. Houston Texans — Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. both grade 8, with Jadeveon Clowney at 6 as the third rusher. The backbone of Clay’s No. 2 defense.
7. New York Giants — Brian Burns (8), Abdul Carter (7) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (6) is the second-best edge room in football. The interior, after the Dexter Lawrence trade, is not.
8. Cincinnati Bengals — Lawrence grades a 9, B.J. Hill a 7, Jonathan Allen a 5, with Mafe added outside. The most aggressive front-line rebuild any team attempted.

Top 10 Coaching Staffs (Not Just Head Coaches)

CBS Sports polled twelve of its writers on the league’s best offensive and defensive play-callers, and the results reshaped this list. Only four teams placed a coordinator in the top ten on both sides: the Rams, Chiefs, Jaguars and Vikings. We’ve weighted that heavily, because a staff is a pair of units, not just a Head Coach.

1. Los Angeles Rams — McVay was the near-unanimous top offensive play-caller (105 points, never ranked lower than third) and Chris Shula finished seventh on defense, appearing on all but one ballot. The Rams ran 13 personnel on 30.5% of snaps last season, more than double the second-place Steelers.
2. Kansas City Chiefs — The best combined pair in football on the voting: Reid fourth on offense, Spagnuolo second on defense. Even in a six-win season Spagnuolo’s unit finished 10th in total defense and sixth in scoring. Bieniemy’s return replaces Matt Nagy, whose second Kansas City stint coincided with the offensive decline.
3. Seattle Seahawks — Macdonald was the unanimous No. 1 defensive play-caller, the only coach in either poll to appear first on every ballot. The lone reason Seattle isn’t higher is that Brian Fleury drew no votes and has never called plays.
4. Los Angeles Chargers — McDaniel was the only non-head-coach to make the offensive top ten, at fifth. Harbaugh’s .679 career win percentage does the rest; Chris O’Leary inherits the defense Minter built.
5. Philadelphia Eagles — Fangio placed fourth on defense, and his units have finished first and fifth in the relevant categories in his two Philadelphia seasons. Sean Mannion is the unknown.
6. San Francisco 49ers — Shanahan finished second on offense, and nobody has scheme-created more open receivers over the last decade. Raheem Morris drew votes on defense.
7. Denver Broncos — Vance Joseph placed eighth on defense after a unit that led the NFL with 68 sacks, eleven more than any other team and four short of the 1984 Bears’ record. Payton handing play-calling to Davis Webb is either smart delegation or the year’s biggest unforced error.
8. Houston Texans — Matt Burke took over play-calling early last season and Houston finished first in total defense and second in scoring. He placed tenth. Nick Caley’s offense is the open question.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars — One of the four staffs with both coordinators ranked: Coen seventh on offense, Campanile ninth on defense after a debut year with the Jaguars eighth in scoring defense and second in takeaways.
10. Chicago Bears — Ben Johnson finished third on offense and got a first-place vote. Chicago graded fifth in both PFF pass blocking and run blocking last year, which is the tell on his line schemes. Dennis Allen’s defense is the swing.

Just missed: Minnesota, the fourth team with both coordinators ranked (O’Connell eighth, Flores fifth after a defense that led the league in pressure rate); Green Bay, where LaFleur placed ninth on offense; and Detroit, where neither Drew Petzing nor Kelvin Sheppard drew a vote.

And a note on Baltimore, since this is a Ravens site and the temptation is obvious: we left them off. Jesse Minter has never been a head coach, Declan Doyle is 30 and has never called an NFL offense, and the two of them have never coached a game together. The pieces are genuinely intriguing, and one of them is better than intriguing: Minter finished third among all defensive play-callers in the CBS poll, behind only Macdonald and Spagnuolo and ahead of Fangio and Flores, on the strength of disciplined units and excellent secondary play under Jim Harbaugh. That is a real endorsement. But Doyle received no votes and has never called an NFL offense, and half a staff isn’t a staff. This group could be top-five by December. It hasn’t earned the ranking yet. 

Projected Finishes by Division

AFC East

1. Bills 12-5 | 2. Patriots 10-7 | 3. Jets 5-12 | 4. Dolphins 4-13

Buffalo. Joe Brady inherits a perennial contender, Clay’s No. 2 offense, a top-five offensive line, and a new stadium. The pass-catching group is genuinely good now — DJ Moore arriving from Chicago alongside Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox at tight end — and James Cook, the reigning rushing champion, plus Ray Davis is a strong backfield. Buffalo finished first in the NFL in rushing offense by EPA last season and 31st in rushing defense — the widest split of any contender, and the reason the McDermott firing followed a four-turnover divisional-round loss in Denver. Strength: Allen, both lines, and a division that is functionally a head start. Weakness: edge depth behind Gregory Rousseau and Bradley Chubb is thin, and Clay grades the linebacker corps a 3, the lowest mark of any contender at any position. The question: how does this defense adjust to Jim Leonhard’s scheme? Nineteen different defensive play-callers drew a vote in CBS’s poll — the widest spread of any category they surveyed — and Leonhard finished with exactly one point, from a single tenth-place ballot. Buffalo is our AFC favorite, and the case against them rests almost entirely on that answer.

New England. The A.J. Brown trade genuinely upgraded a skill group that was underwhelming a year ago, and Rhamondre Stevenson with TreVeyon Henderson is a complementary backfield worth watching. Alijah Vera-Tucker, first-round tackle Caleb Lomu and Jared Wilson moving back to his natural spot at center should make life easier up front. Strength: a secondary where Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Craig Woodson and Kevin Byard all grade 8. Weakness: heavy defensive attrition and an offseason dominated by Mike Vrabel’s off-field problems. The question: Maye finished second in MVP voting — is that who he is, or did everything around him go right at once? He’s clearly good enough to win with; we’re not yet convinced he’s the reason a team wins, which is why we’re below the market here. In fairness to the other side: Maye led the entire NFL in both EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expectation last season, and his +10.8 CPOE wasn’t close to anyone else’s. The case against him is the postseason, where New England’s offense was overmatched by a run of elite defenses.

New York Jets. The most interesting bad team in football. New York did not record a single interception in 2025 — an almost impossible statistic — and finished 32nd in passing defense by EPA per dropback, and responded by rebuilding most of the defensive starting lineup, with Aaron Glenn taking over play-calling himself. Clay now grades the Jets’ linebackers eighth-best in the league and their defense 10th, with Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety and T’Vondre Sweat, Harrison Phillips and David Onyemata inside. Strength: the front seven, plus a draft class of David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr. and D’Angelo Ponds. Weakness: Smith threw a league-high 17 interceptions last season and finished 34th in EPA per dropback; Clay projects 14 more picks. The question: can this defense drag a 7-win roster into relevance?

Miami. This was a 7-10 team a year ago. Then Tyreek Hill was cut, Tua Tagovailoa and Minkah Fitzpatrick were moved out, and Jaylen Waddle and Bradley Chubb were traded. Clay now projects 2.4 wins — the lowest number in the guide — with the 32nd-ranked offense, 32nd-ranked defense, and roughly $180 million in dead cap. Strength: De’Von Achane, Zach Sieler and Jordyn Brooks are legitimate players. Weakness: a receiving corps with no threat above a 3 grade, and the second-hardest schedule. The question: how does Miami even evaluate Malik Willis with these weapons?

AFC North

1. Ravens 11-6 | 2. Bengals 10-7 | 3. Steelers 8-9 | 4. Browns 5-12

For the first time since 2021, the AFC North champion won with just 10 wins, and it took a Week 18 classic in Pittsburgh to settle it. Three of the four teams have new Head Coaches. The division needs to be better than it was.

Baltimore. Eighteen years of John Harbaugh ended in January, and Jesse Minter walks into as much pressure as any first-year coach in the league. He inherits a two-time MVP, Clay’s second-best roster, the fifth-easiest schedule, and a mandate that isn’t “make the playoffs” but “win in them.”

The strengths are enormous and specific, and last year’s EPA splits describe the team precisely: Baltimore finished first in rushing offense and third in rushing defense, and 21st in passing offense and 18th in passing defense. Clay’s model projects them to lead the NFL in both rushing attempts and rushing yards while ranking dead last in pass attempts — a run-first bully team by design, with Derrick Henry projected for 1,482 yards and 13 touchdowns at 32. Kyle Hamilton grades a 9, and the safety group is the best-graded unit at any position on any roster in the league. Madubuike, Travis Jones and Campbell give Minter the interior he needs, and Hendrickson gives him the edge rusher the last two Ravens teams lacked. Clay has the defense fourth overall and second in sacks.

The soft spots are equally specific: receiver and tight end both grade 5. Zay Flowers just got $35 million a year and needs to prove he’s a true No. 1 rather than an excellent No. 2, and behind him it’s a rehabilitating Rashod Bateman, a 31-year-old Mark Andrews coming off a quiet year, and a draft class asked to contribute immediately — Ja’Kobi Lane in the third round, Elijah Sarratt in the fourth, Matthew Hibner in the fourth, Josh Cuevas in the fifth. Here is the cleanest way to state the problem: exactly three players on this roster have ever caught more than ten passes from Lamar Jackson. Flowers, Bateman and Andrews. That’s it. The interior offensive line is a projection: Ethan Pocic replacing Tyler Linderbaum while returning from a torn Achilles, John Simpson at left guard, rookie Vega Ioane at right guard. Marlon Humphrey has to bounce back at 30. And Madubuike’s neck surgery means nobody really knows what this defense is until October. The question: how much of the last two seasons was actually coaching?

The Lamar question nobody in Baltimore wants to ask. Start with the disagreement: The Ringer’s Diante Lee ranked Jackson the third-best quarterback in football this offseason, ahead of Herbert, Maye, Prescott and Burrow. That is the high end of his range, and it’s a real evaluation. But three other measures docked him this summer, and they all point at the same thing. Before doing that, note what actually happened: Jackson opened 2025 completing better than 70 percent of his throws at 9.1 yards per attempt with a 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, then hurt his hamstring. After he returned he was visibly slower, scrambled less, held the ball longer and stopped pushing it downfield. Steven Ruiz’s read at The Ringer was that Jackson’s decision-making itself appeared to be a function of his health. He slid 67 spots to No. 69 on the players’ Top 100. He dropped out of Sando’s Tier 1 back to the top of Tier 2 after making his Tier 1 debut a year ago. And the stated reason wasn’t the missed games — it was that his rushing yards per game fell by roughly half year over year. One opposing coach told Sando “I’m not sure how much he wants to run and take hits anymore,” adding that Jackson can’t be special without the threat of the run.

Jackson has spent three years becoming a better pocket passer specifically so he doesn’t have to absorb that punishment, and at 29, protecting his body is rational — he’s now been limited to 13 games or fewer in three of five seasons. But Clay’s model projects him for 671 rushing yards on 122 carries, which would be a meaningful bounce-back, and it projects Baltimore to lead the NFL in rushing attempts and rushing yards. Declan Doyle’s first real job is finding ways to make Jackson a run threat without making him a target.

And here’s the case nobody is making loudly enough. The knock on Baltimore is a rookie head coach and a 30-year-old first-time play-caller. But Jackson has won MVP in the first season of each of his last two new offensive coordinators — unanimously under Greg Roman in 2019, the second unanimous winner in league history, and again under Todd Monken in 2023. Twenty-two teams have a new offensive coordinator this year. There is no quarterback in football with a better track record of absorbing one.

The schematic details are more interesting than the personnel questions. Doyle has Jackson taking more snaps under center than in any previous camp, and Jackson expects that to carry into the season. He has been under center for five percent of his career snaps; since 2018 his 226 under-center snaps are the second fewest of any quarterback with 50 starts, behind Kyler Murray. And over those same eight seasons, Jackson has posted the highest QBR in the NFL from under center — 81.2, with 20 touchdowns and one interception. It’s the least-used and most productive part of his game. Doyle is also drilling cadence, which is a strange thing to have to fix and an obvious place to find yards: since 2019 Baltimore has drawn defenses offside 33 times, fewer than every team but New Orleans and New England, and Jackson has exactly one career completion on a free play. The transition isn’t seamless — the offense false-started eight times in a single August practice varying its cadences, and Jackson spiked his helmet after a two-minute drill ran out of clock — but the direction is clear, and Jackson attended the voluntary spring work to get a head start on it.

Cincinnati. Burrow missed nine games and the defense still couldn’t get out of its own way. The Dexter Lawrence trade is the swing this franchise needed, with second-rounder Cashius Howell arriving to push Myles Murphy for snaps opposite Boye Mafe. Strength: Clay’s No. 3 offense — Burrow, one of only four quarterbacks voted into Sando’s Tier 1, plus Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — and the second-easiest schedule. Weakness: a linebacker room grading 4, a defense Clay still ranks 25th, and an offensive line with real questions inside. The question: how good is Amarius Mims in Year 3? If he’s a legitimate starting tackle, the bookends are set and the interior becomes solvable. Worth noting on that front: Cincinnati’s line actually allowed the third-lowest pressure rate in football last season, and Burrow’s own reluctance to give up on plays is part of why the sack and hit totals stay high. He also posted the league’s lowest off-target throw rate. And while everyone spends August discussing Lamar Jackson’s missed time, Burrow has missed a comparable amount over the same stretch — that’s the quieter version of the same problem.

Pittsburgh. The defending division champions. Mike Tomlin never had a losing season in 20 years; Mike McCarthy inherits the streak. Rodgers returns for a 22nd season and turns 43 in December, and the arm is still there — but the ability to escape and extend is not. Expect defenses to crowd the line and dare him to get the ball out immediately, over and over. The tape already says they will: in 2025 Rodgers posted both the lowest average time to throw and the lowest average depth of target in the NFL, and he has essentially stopped working the middle of the field. He finished 23rd in EPA per dropback and 33rd in success rate. Around him is a real supporting cast: Michael Pittman Jr. and Rico Dowdle join DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth, with first-round tackle Max Iheanachor added up front. Strength: Clay’s No. 3 defense, headlined by the league’s best edge group and a secondary with Jalen Ramsey, Joey Porter Jr., Jamel Dean, Jaquan Brisker and Darnell Savage. Weakness: Clay ranks the offense 26th. The question: can Rodgers be a middle-of-the-pack starter? If so, this is a division threat, not a third-place team — and that’s the single biggest swing in the AFC North.

Cleveland. Todd Monken finally landed a top job — a hire that drove respected DC Jim Schwartz out of the building — and inherits a four-way quarterback competition between Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel and rookie Taylen Green. Strength: Cleveland finished first in the NFL in passing defense by EPA per dropback last season, and the 2025 draft class delivered Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger plus Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr., with Jared Verse arriving in the Garrett trade as a cost-controlled young edge who fits the timeline. Weakness: the offense finished 32nd in that same metric — dead last, and not close — which is what Clay’s 31st-ranked projection is built on, alongside a presumptive starter in Watson who ranked 31st of 35 in the tiers with some of the harshest commentary in the survey. The question: is this a competition or an audition for the 2027 draft?

AFC South

1. Texans 11-6 | 2. Jaguars 9-8 | 3. Colts 7-10 | 4. Titans 6-11

Houston. After an 0-3 start, Houston won 12 of 14 including a nine-game closing streak before losing to New England in the divisional round. The offseason went entirely into the offense: Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller signed, David Montgomery acquired from Detroit, Keylan Rutledge drafted. Woody Marks is usable but he isn’t Jahmyr Gibbs, which means Montgomery should see more touches here than he did in his last couple of years in Detroit. Strength: a defense that finished first in total defense and second in scoring after Ryans handed play-calling to Matt Burke early last season, with a corner group grading 8 — Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre. Weakness: Clay ranks the offense 22nd, and Stroud’s 2023 turnover avoidance looks more like an outlier every year. The question: from October on, Stroud ranked seventh in EPA per dropback behind a bad line and no run game, then had a disastrous playoff run. Analysts loved his rookie season; entering 2026 he has a long list of detractors. If he’s average, Houston probably wins the South. If he’s a top-third quarterback, Houston can win the AFC. Montgomery giving this offense a consistent play-action game is the likeliest bridge between those outcomes.

Jacksonville. The popular sleeper of the summer, on the strength of how they closed 2025 — unbeaten from Week 11 through Week 18 — and of a roster people keep describing in terms of collective team speed. GM James Gladstone was content to run it back. Strength: Coen’s scheme, a defense that ranked first in EPA per play from Week 11 on, and Joshua Hines-Allen grading a 9. Weakness: everyone says running backs are replaceable, and we still didn’t like losing Travis Etienne; Devin Lloyd is gone too, and there was no cap space or draft capital to replace either. The question: it comes down to how you evaluate Trevor Lawrence. From November on he ranked fourth in the NFL in total EPA and success rate and drew MVP votes, with the midseason Jakobi Meyers trade a real catalyst — though he still finished 27th in completion percentage over expectation on the full season. If you believe better coaching has turned the corner, be optimistic. Secondary questions: does Brian Thomas Jr. rebound, and what does Travon Walker actually give this defense?

Indianapolis. The Colts were the most explosive offense in football through two months, then Daniel Jones got hurt, the season collapsed, and they were reduced to unretiring Philip Rivers. Jones was legitimately good in the first half of last season, and the play-action game built off Jonathan Taylor — newly paid at two years, $44 million, and grading a 9 — is the foundation. Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs won’t frighten anyone, but it’s a usable group. Strength: an offensive line with Quenton Nelson and Bernhard Raimann, plus DeForest Buckner. Weakness: Clay grades the linebackers 3, and the receiving room thinned when Pittman went to Pittsburgh. The question: there’s a clear path to this defense being better than last year, and it starts with availability — several projected starters missed significant time, none more important than 2025 trade acquisition Sauce Gardner.

Tennessee. New coach, new coordinators, new uniforms harking back to the Oilers. Saleh builds dominant defenses; Daboll got one great year out of Josh Allen and one good year out of Daniel Jones. Strength: a front anchored by Jeffery Simmons, who grades a 9 and projects for a league-leading 9.3 sacks among interior linemen. Weakness: Clay’s 29th offense and 28th defense — the roster is still two drafts away. The question: Ward finished 33rd of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, success rate and yards per dropback — and improved in all three over the back half of the season while nearly halving his sack rate after Brian Callahan was fired. How much of that carries into Year 2 with a real No. 1 receiver and simplified reads?

AFC West

1. Chargers 10-7 | 2. Broncos 10-7 | 3. Chiefs 10-7 | 4. Raiders 6-11

Three teams projected at 10-7, and only two of them get in. It’s the tightest division in football and the one most likely to embarrass us.

Los Angeles. Eleven wins without both All-Pro tackles for most of the year. Now they’re back, and McDaniel is calling plays. Losing Minter to Baltimore should matter, and as Ravens fans we’d like to think it will — but Harbaugh has always found a path, and he always builds physical teams. First-round pick Akheem Mesidor was a good add to a front where Tuli Tuipulotu’s 13 sacks last season have gone strangely unnoticed; the open question is what Khalil Mack has left after 17 sacks in 2023 and 11.5 combined since. The Chargers ranked 23rd in passing offense by EPA per dropback last season, which is the whole explanation for the McDaniel hire — though the context matters. Herbert took 54 sacks behind the league’s highest pressure rate, playing through a broken hand that required midseason surgery, in front of a line that shuffled through nearly three dozen starting combinations. He responded by setting a career high in scramble rate and averaging nine yards per dropback outside of structure. Strength: Herbert, who checked in sixth in Sando’s tiers and fourth on The Ringer’s board, ran for 498 yards last year — also underdiscussed — and behind two returning All-Pro tackles has the deepest skill group of his era, with Derwin James anchoring the back end. Weakness: the interior offensive line, and two models that read the schedule very differently — Sharp has it middle-of-the-pack (20th-easiest), Clay the fourth-hardest in football. The question: does Tre Harris take a step? If he does, this receiver room is a problem for people. And for what it’s worth: contracts and age aside, if we were building a team to win one season, we’d take Herbert over Maye.

Denver. Denver has gone 25-11 with Nix starting, made the playoffs in both his seasons after missing eight straight, and returns 20 of 22 starters from an AFC Championship Game roster. Since drafting him 12th overall they’ve committed more than $300 million in guarantees to the players around him — Zach Allen, Quinn Meinerz, Nik Bonitto, Courtland Sutton, Pat Surtain II, Garett Bolles — and sent first-, third- and fourth-round picks to Miami for Jaylen Waddle. J.K. Dobbins had injury trouble again but was productive when available, and whether RJ Harvey’s 3.7 yards per carry climbs in Year 2 matters. Strength: the best offensive line in football, Bonitto coming off a 14-sack season, and a unit that led the NFL with 68 sacks — eleven clear of the field and four short of the 1984 Bears’ record.

The honest case on Nix runs both ways, and it’s more interesting than his tier placement. He’s the third quarterback in league history with 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, after Peyton Manning and Justin Herbert, and he leads all six first-round quarterbacks from the 2024 class in wins, passing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns and total touchdowns — ahead of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. He was also, in Ruiz’s reading, one of the NFL’s best fourth-quarter quarterbacks and mediocre outside of it, finishing 30th in success rate. He finished 26th in completion percentage over expectation at minus-2.1%, completed 44.1% of throws travelling 10-plus air yards and 36.1% of throws travelling 20-plus, and attempted only 40 passes between the hashmarks all season against 234 outside the numbers. Opposing coordinators have noticed, and they’ll keep making him look at the middle of the field. First-year coordinator Davis Webb spent the offseason working on getting him off his first read faster.

Weakness: the ankle. Nix has fractured one in high school, college and the NFL, and has had three surgeries in two Denver seasons including an April cleanup for bone spurs. The question: is Waddle the missing piece? There’s a contract underneath all of this — Nix carries a $5.076 million cap charge, the 19th-highest on his own team, and the top twelve quarterbacks now average north of $51 million a year. A big season makes that a nine-figure guarantee. A flat one probably means Denver picks up the fifth-year option and waits.

Kansas City. Six wins, 1-9 in one-score games, a torn ACL. Mahomes was cleared to practice fully when camp opened. This offense may never be explosive again, but it will remain productive as long as he’s available — and adding Kenneth Walker III gives them a downhill thumper and, with it, a real play-action game. Two first-round picks and a second went into the defense, which is the kind of investment that tends to show up gradually; Spagnuolo’s units almost always look better in December than September. Strength: Mahomes, Reid, Creed Humphrey (a 9), Chris Jones, and genuine speed at receiver. Weakness: a rebuilt secondary leaning on rookie Mansoor Delane, and Xavier Worthy nursing another shoulder issue. The question: even if he stays available, what does Mahomes look like scrambling on a repaired knee — and does he start getting the ball out quicker?

Las Vegas. Klint Kubiak asked for a veteran quarterback so he wouldn’t have to throw the No. 1 overall pick into the fire, and got Kirk Cousins. Tyler Linderbaum fixes the center spot; Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker rebuild the linebacker room. Strength: Maxx Crosby (a 9, projected for 10.9 sacks), Brock Bowers (a 9), Ashton Jeanty. Weakness: no receiver above a 5 grade. The question: how long can they justify keeping Mendoza on the bench?

NFC East

1. Eagles 10-7 | 2. Cowboys 9-8 | 3. Commanders 7-10 | 4. Giants 6-11

Philadelphia. Eleven wins, a division title, a wild-card exit against San Francisco, and negative vibes throughout. A.J. Brown is gone, Dontayvion Wicks and Riq Woolen arrive, Sean Mannion installs the Shanahan-McVay system after Kevin Patullo was fired, and Fangio still runs the defense. Dallas Goedert is coming off an 11-touchdown season, and we liked the Eli Stowers pick in the second round behind him. Strength: All-Pros in the secondary with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis up front — that’s the start of any good defense — plus Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun both grading 9. Weakness: an unsettled receiver room, and a safety group grading 3. The question: does Makai Lemon produce right away, and does Barkley bounce back from 4.1 yards per carry after 5.8 the year before? On Hurts: the scrutiny has gotten excessive. Finishing second in MVP voting in 2022 was hyperbole, and so is the criticism now. He’s been to two Super Bowls, won one, was its MVP, and has three Pro Bowls. You can fixate on the flaws or appreciate what he is. Ruiz’s film read lands in the same place: the efficiency decline in 2025 traced to a bad scheme rather than any regression in Hurts’s skill set, and Patullo lost his job over it. Our guess is he remains good enough.

Dallas. The Cowboys had the league’s second-best offense — two 1,000-yard receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the NFL’s third-rated passer in Dak Prescott, and a quietly very productive year from Javonte Williams — and finished 7-9-1 because they couldn’t stop anybody — 31st in passing defense and 30th in rushing defense by EPA. So they threw the kitchen sink at the defense: Rashan Gary, Dee Winters, Otito Ogbonnia, Jalen Thompson and Cobie Durant via free agency and trade, first-round picks on Caleb Downs and edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, and Christian Parker hired from Philadelphia to coordinate. The run defense in particular looks improved. Strength: Clay’s No. 6 offense — if Dallas can block, this unit puts up points. Weakness: they’ll still likely have to scheme pressure rather than generate it, and the schedule is fifth-hardest. The question: can this defense be merely average? If it is, Dallas is a playoff team.

Washington. In 2024 they reached the NFC Championship Game and everyone was in love with Jayden Daniels. In 2025 they slipped to 5-12 and nobody believes in them. Dan Quinn overhauled both coordinator spots — David Blough on offense, Daronte Jones on defense — and there’s a heavy Maryland flavor to the additions: former Terps Stefon Diggs and Chigoziem Okonkwo should both help immediately, and Nick Cross joins the secondary. Former Raven Odafe Oweh gets a chance to build on what he did in Los Angeles. We loved the Sonny Styles selection. Strength: Daniels grades a 7 and is an MVP-caliber player when upright. Weakness: Laremy Tunsil tore a triceps and is likely to miss a significant portion of the season, and Washington finished dead last in the NFL in yards allowed. The question: can Daniels stay on the field? If he does, he can probably drag this roster to .500.

New York. John Harbaugh’s second act should at minimum be more organized, and paired with a manageable schedule there’s a version of this that surprises people. Under new coordinator Dennard Wilson, the front seven pairs Brian Burns and Abdul Carter with Kayvon Thibodeaux, rookie Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds — Clay’s second-best edge group. Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard followed Harbaugh from Baltimore and should both be productive, and Odell Beckham Jr. is back in a Giants uniform. Strength: real defensive talent, plus Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart, who debuted atop Tier 3. Weakness: Dart has obvious talent and a playing style that doesn’t inspire confidence about his availability; Malik Nabers isn’t practicing fully; the interior line thinned after the Lawrence trade. The question: probably too many unknowns to project a leap — but if Dart, Nabers and Skattebo are mostly available, this becomes a team nobody enjoys facing in the second half of the season.

NFC North

1. Lions 11-6 | 2. Packers 10-7 | 3. Bears 8-9 | 4. Vikings 8-9

The best division in football by most accounts, and the one where all four teams have a credible argument.

Detroit. Nine-and-eight and tied for last in the division a year ago, and now the easiest schedule in football by both models — which is why Clay projects 12 wins and the NFL’s second-best record. The Lions added to both lines in the draft, and this offense remains formidable, especially at home on the turf. Goff keeps posting gaudy numbers; he’s another quarterback who isn’t elite and is unquestionably good enough to win with. Strength: Amon-Ra St. Brown (9), Aidan Hutchinson (9), Jack Campbell (9), Penei Sewell (8) moving to left tackle, Sam LaPorta (8). Weakness: Cade Mays out 8-10 weeks, Terrion Arnold gone, both starting safeties opening camp on PUP — Sharp dropped Detroit three spots on the secondary alone. The questions: Gibbs no longer has David Montgomery to share the load, so does Isiah Pacheco — who hasn’t looked right in two years — revert to anything like his 2023 form? And what do D.J. Wonnum and Derrick Moore actually give Detroit opposite Hutchinson?

Green Bay. The Packers were 9-3-1 on December 7 and top-five in several defensive categories. Then Micah Parsons tore his ACL, they lost four straight, and they blew a 21-3 lead to Chicago in the wild card. We like this team, starting with Jordan Love, who has enormous ability; a healthy Tucker Kraft is a top-tier tight end, and Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden all have talent and all have questions. It falls to Love to elevate that group. Strength: Parsons and Xavier McKinney both grade 9; Zach Tom grades 8. Weakness: Josh Jacobs’ unresolved legal situation sours the outlook, and the contingency is MarShawn Lloyd — the former DeMatha standout who had six carries in 2024 and missed 2025 entirely. The question: Parsons is eyeing a Week 6 return. How good is this defense without him, how long does the rust last, and does he get back to his prior peak in 2026?

Chicago. The defending division champion, and Year 3 for Caleb Williams is bringing a lot of hype. To his credit he made marked improvement from Year 1 to Year 2, and Ben Johnson fixed the sack problem in a single offseason. Feeding D’Andre Swift, who averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season, would only help him further. Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III are a solid duo, and Colston Loveland’s emergence as a rookie first-rounder is a big reason Cole Kmet fell from 73 catches in 2023 to 30 last year. It’s still a good group — just not as deep without DJ Moore, and third-rounder Zavion Thomas has to be integrated. Strength: an offensive line grading 7, with Joe Thuney at 9. Weakness: Chicago brought in multiple options at left tackle without an obvious answer, Burden misses the preseason with a groin injury, Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon are hurt, and Sharp ranks the schedule third-hardest. The questions: Williams completed 58.1 percent of his throws last season — nowhere near Ben Johnson’s stated preseason goal of 70 percent — and ranked 34th in completion percentage over expectation even while setting the franchise single-season passing record and winning Chicago’s first playoff game since 2011. That gap between the highlight throws and the routine ones is the step. Also: that secondary generated a mountain of turnovers in 2025 — is any of that sustainable? They had losses at safety and added first-rounder Dillon Thieneman to replace them. And can Williams take another step?

Minnesota. Kyler Murray won the job outright; J.J. McCarthy’s camp was described by one veteran beat writer as the football yips. Murray has started multiple seasons hot enough to draw MVP chatter by Week 6 and has never sustained it, with the usual explanation being that he wears down over a full year given his size. But the skill talent here is better than anything he’s had. Minnesota spent its first three picks on defense, and Jonathan Greenard’s departure for Philadelphia will be felt. Strength: Justin Jefferson grades a 9, and Brian Flores — whose defense finished third in the NFL in passing EPA allowed while the offense finished 29th — is the best coordinator alive at extracting production from a unit without stars. Weakness: Clay grades the quarterback room a 4. The question: is it crazy to think Murray could approximate what Sam Darnold did here in 2024? And if he doesn’t reach those highs but lands somewhere near average, is that enough in this division?

NFC South

1. Buccaneers 9-8 | 2. Saints 8-9 | 3. Panthers 8-9 | 4. Falcons 6-11

Last year this division produced a three-way tie at 8-9, with Carolina taking the crown on a tiebreaker. It’s the closest race on the board and the division where we’ve changed our mind the most.

Tampa Bay. We’re taking the talent. Baker Mayfield called the club’s reported two-year, $100-million-plus offer disrespectful and will play out his deal — and a healthy Mayfield playing with a chip on his shoulder is not the worst thing that could happen to this offense. Vita Vea has requested a trade and is holding in, Mike Evans left for San Francisco and Lavonte David retired. But Emeka Egbuka is back after drawing 127 targets as a rookie, Wirfs and Goedeke anchor a top-four line, and Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith are one of the best safety duos in football. Zac Robinson arrives from Atlanta as Mayfield’s newest coordinator. Strength: the trenches on both sides. Weakness: the vibes, which are objectively terrible. The questions: Bucky Irving played all 17 games as a rookie in 2024 and averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 207 attempts; last year he was limited to 10 games and 3.4 yards on 173. Which is the real number? And Chris Godwin has played 16 total games across two seasons — this offense looks meaningfully better if he’s available.

New Orleans. The under-the-radar pick that nearly became our division pick. The Saints went 5-4 in games Tyler Shough started and 1-7 otherwise, added Travis Etienne and guard David Edwards, drafted Jordyn Tyson eighth overall, and paid Chris Olave up to $132 million. Kellen Moore is in Year 2 with a defined starter, Brandon Staley runs the defense, and Chase Young is coming off 10 sacks in 12 games. Strength: schedule and trajectory. Weakness: over $112 million in dead cap, no depth in the trenches, and Bryan Bresee lost for the year. The question: Shough had the league’s worst pressure-to-sack ratio and a bottom-ten off-target rate, which is a real ceiling on a quarterback who otherwise showed enough. Is he good enough to make the leap this roster is quietly built for?

Carolina. The defending champs overcame a 1-3 start with a 7-6 finish, then had the best offseason in the division — Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd, Rasheed Walker, first-round tackle Monroe Freeling — and have been bitten harder by the injury bug than any team in football. Nic Scourton and rookie receiver Chris Brazzell are out for the year; Taylor Moton and Ikem Ekwonu are on uncertain timetables. Add the third-hardest schedule and Clay’s 5.9-win projection, and we’re taking the over mostly on Derrick Brown (a 9), Devin Lloyd and Tetairoa McMillan. The question: is last year’s version of Bryce Young the real one — and does it matter given the circumstances?

Atlanta. Raheem Morris and GM Terry Fontenot are gone; Kevin Stefanski, Ian Cunningham and team president Matt Ryan inherit a quarterback position that was largely dreadful in 2025. Nobody believes Tua Tagovailoa gets through a season unscathed, and this is Year 3 for Michael Penix Jr., who still hasn’t been cleared for 11-on-11 work — which is why Atlanta signed Cooper Rush in late July. But neither has to be excellent. Tua’s Miami offenses had real stretches, particularly early in seasons; Penix was the eighth pick two years ago. The film reads are unkind to both. Penix completed 60.1 percent of his throws and ranked 35th in completion percentage over expectation, with Drake London and Kyle Pitts bailing out a lot of high misses, and his knee injury was the third ACL tear of his career. Tagovailoa was among the league’s least productive passers between the numbers from 10 to 25 air yards, with a 1-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio on those throws. Strength: the surrounding talent is legitimately good — Bijan Robinson grades a 9 on a new deal worth nearly $67 million, with Drake London (8), Kyle Pitts (7) and Jahan Dotson, plus Jessie Bates and Xavier Watts on the back end. Weakness: right tackle could be a limiting issue, which matters more than usual given both quarterbacks are left-handed and Jawaan Taylor is protecting the blind side.

We’ve projected 6-11, and it’s worth being explicit about why, because it isn’t a verdict on the roster. Tagovailoa’s medical history is what it is — he has been one significant hit away from the end of his career for two years running — and Penix has his own long injury record on top of a knee that still hasn’t cleared him for 11-on-11 work. There’s a genuine scenario where one of them settles in as something like the 20th-best quarterback in the league, the surrounding talent does the rest, and Atlanta finishes near .500. We just can’t project it. The median outcome for a team whose two options both carry this much availability risk is a season spent cycling through quarterbacks, and that’s what 6-11 represents. The questions: can either one simply be available and avoid turnovers? Does edge rusher James Pearce Jr. miss time behind Jalon Walker, already lost for the year? And can this run defense stop anybody?

NFC West

1. Rams 13-4 | 2. Seahawks 11-6 | 3. 49ers 10-7 | 4. Cardinals 4-13

Los Angeles. The closest thing to a preseason superteam the league has had in years: +550 to win it all, 14.9 percent in ESPN’s FPI, and the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense in Clay’s grades — the only team in the guide to lead both. Stafford is the reigning MVP and projects for 4,282 yards and 35 touchdowns. Puka Nacua led the league in receptions and receiving yards per game and grades a 9, with Davante Adams opposite. Strength: no obvious below-average starting unit anywhere on the roster. Weakness: off-field uncertainty around Nacua, and a schedule both models rank among the six hardest. The question: is Aaron Donald coming back — and is there any acceptable excuse if this team doesn’t finish the job in its own building?

Seattle. Fourteen wins, the NFC’s top seed, three losses by a combined nine points, and a Super Bowl blowout. DVOA rated them the third-best champion ever. Strength: Macdonald’s defense, with Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon and reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba all grading 9, and Julian Love, Emmanwori, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas at 8. Weakness: a first-time play-caller, and the departure of a Super Bowl MVP who ran for 135 yards in the title game, with Charbonnet still rehabbing and Emmanwori on PUP. Second is aggressive for a team that lost a Super Bowl MVP — but Sharp has them third, NFL.com third and Clay fourth in projected wins, and nobody has actually beaten them yet. The question: what does this offense look like when nobody is propping Sam Darnold up?

San Francisco. A twelve-win season, a road playoff win in Philadelphia, and a divisional-round exit against the eventual champions. In most divisions the 49ers would be expected to contend. In this one they feel destined for third behind the Rams and Seahawks. The offense has recognizable names and real talent, and also a lot of age: Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk are all older and none of them are finished. Christian McCaffrey was excellent as a receiver out of the backfield last year but averaged 3.9 yards per carry as a pure runner, well below his career norms. Strength: Shanahan, plus McCaffrey, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa all grading 9. Weakness: Ricky Pearsall’s surgery was damaging, Trent Williams is 38, and Kittle is still working back from an Achilles tear. The questions: Brock Purdy was limited to nine games last season and this team can’t surprise anyone if that repeats — though Mac Jones played well in his opportunities. Where are Bosa and Warner physically after their 2025 injuries? And can 2026 second-rounder De’Zhaun Stribling get involved early enough to matter?

Arizona. Mike LaFleur inherits the hardest schedule in the league by both models. Jacoby Brissett is QB1 with Gardner Minshew behind him and third-round pick Carson Beck lurking; Clay grades the room a 3. Strength: more weapons than the record will suggest — Trey McBride grades a 9, No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love an 8, with Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Paris Johnson Jr. and Isaac Seumalo. Josh Sweat and Walter Nolen give the front real juice when healthy. Weakness: everything else. The question: can Arizona get Harrison back on track after two years of offensive dysfunction?

Projected Playoff Seeding

BSL AFC: 1. Bills · 2. Ravens · 3. Texans · 4. Chargers · 5. Broncos · 6. Patriots · 7. Bengals BSL NFC: 1. Rams · 2. Lions · 3. Eagles · 4. Buccaneers · 5. Seahawks · 6. Packers · 7. 49ers

Buffalo is our AFC favorite outright; Baltimore is the North favorite and close behind, with Denver, the Chargers and Houston in the next group. The Chargers win the West at 10-7 in a three-way scrum with Denver and Kansas City, which is about as thin a division title as we could project. The sixth and seventh seeds are a genuine coin flip between New England and Cincinnati, and the argument runs in both directions: Cincinnati has the better schedule and the higher ceiling, New England the better bet that its quarterback plays all seventeen games. If Burrow is available for a full season, the Bengals are almost certainly a playoff team. The Chiefs are our first team out at 10-7, which remains the call in this piece we’d most expect to be wrong. Dallas is the NFC’s first team out at 9-8.

For comparison, Clay’s model produces: AFC: Ravens, Broncos, Bills, Texans, Bengals, Patriots, Chiefs. NFC: Rams, Lions, Eagles, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers.

Breakout Watch: Five Names to Know

• Abdul Carter, EDGE, Giants. Seventy-two pressures as a rookie — including a league-best 48 in under 2.5 seconds — and only four sacks. Clay projects 7.9 this year. The finishing will come.
• Mike Green, EDGE, Ravens. Three and a half sacks as a rookie, and now gets to attack opposite of Hendrickson in an attacking scheme.
• Travis Hunter, CB, Jaguars. Full-time corner, part-time offensive weapon, on a defense that was first in EPA per play down the stretch. Clay projects him as the top fantasy corner in football.
• Cedric Gray, LB, Titans. Fifth in the NFL with 160 tackles as a first-time starter, now the centerpiece of a Saleh-Bradley zone scheme.
• Colston Loveland, TE, Bears. The 2025 first-rounder was good enough as a rookie to cut Cole Kmet from 73 catches in 2023 to 30 last season. Now DJ Moore’s targets are in Buffalo, Luther Burden III missed the preseason, and Clay projects Loveland for 118 targets and 898 yards — fourth among all tight ends. Ben Johnson built his Detroit offenses around tight end usage, and this is the first year he has the personnel to do it in Chicago.

Five Biggest Storylines Entering Week 1

1. The Rams are a superteam, and the NFL hasn’t had one of these in a while. Los Angeles carries an implied 12.5 percent championship probability after adjusting for the vig, more than five points clear of the Bills and Ravens. Les Snead traded Jared Verse and three picks for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, traded for Trent McDuffie, signed Jaylen Watson, extended Stafford, and has Aaron Donald working out in the building. Clay’s model has them first in scoring offense and first in scoring defense. Historically, teams that separate this dramatically before September have a mixed record of finishing the job — and the Super Bowl is at SoFi. The Ty Simpson pick at No. 13 will read as foresight or hubris depending entirely on February.

2. A coaching carousel that reshaped the league’s power structure. John Harbaugh is with the Giants after 18 seasons in Baltimore. Mike Tomlin is out in Pittsburgh after 20. Sean McDermott was fired in Buffalo, Raheem Morris in Atlanta. Jesse Minter, Joe Brady, Mike McCarthy, Todd Monken, Kevin Stefanski, Robert Saleh, Klint Kubiak, Mike LaFleur and Jeff Hafley are all running teams for the first time in their current chairs. Mike McDaniel is calling plays for the Chargers instead of running the Dolphins. Sean Payton handed play-calling to Davis Webb. Twenty-two teams — more than two-thirds of the league — will open the season with a new offensive coordinator. The AFC North alone has three new head coaches, two of them first-timers.

3. The skill-position market has fully broken. Jaxon Smith-Njigba reset the receiver market at $42.15 million per year. Zay Flowers got $35 million on two 1,000-yard seasons. Chris Olave signed for up to $132 million without a Pro Bowl. There are now a dozen receivers making at least $30 million annually and exactly one offensive tackle. And after years of being told they don’t matter, Bijan Robinson (nearly $67 million), Jonathan Taylor (two years, $44 million) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($22.5 million per year) all cashed in inside a two-week window. Puka Nacua’s next deal may reset everything again.

4. Quarterback second chances, everywhere you look. Kyler Murray beat out J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota. Rodgers is back in Pittsburgh at 42 for a final season. Cousins is holding the seat for Mendoza in Las Vegas. Tagovailoa, Penix and Cooper Rush are sorting it out in Atlanta. Watson, Sanders, Gabriel and Green are sorting it out in Cleveland. Malik Willis gets his first Week 1 start in Miami. Jacoby Brissett is bridging to Carson Beck in Arizona. Geno Smith is back where he started, in New York. A third of the league has organized its season around a player somebody else gave up on.

5. The AFC hierarchy is genuinely open — and Kansas City isn’t at the top of it. The Chiefs enter ninth in FPI, their worst preseason ranking since 2018, and Clay has them as the No. 7 seed. Baltimore, Buffalo, Denver, Houston, New England and now the Chargers all have credible paths to the top seed. Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL behind a roster that is objectively less talented than a year ago. For the first time since he took over, the road to the Super Bowl does not obviously run through Arrowhead. Our answer is that it runs through Orchard Park, with Baltimore close enough behind that a single January afternoon decides it.

The post 2026 NFL Preview: Power Rankings, Win Totals, and Every Team’s Defining Question appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

On the verge of another season, some things are new.  John Harbaugh had served as the Ravens Head Coach since 2008.  He is now gone, and replaced by first-time Head Coach Jesse Minter.

That transition of leadership – accompanied by Minter’s incoming staff – has some things feeling fresh as a new year begins.

Some things haven’t changed.  The Ravens are entering the season as one of the prohibitive favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy next February.

There are expectations for this team to perform, and pressure for the organization to get over the proverbial hump and do significant post-season damage with Lamar Jackson under Center.

Here we look at the roster, and give some thoughts on what we like and currently question.

Like – Starting with the most obvious, we like #8.  Somehow we’ve reached Year 9 of Jackson’s career, and liking or believing in Jackson is still a discussion point for some.  You can wish that Jackson and the Ravens had accomplished more in the post-season during his career to-date. You can rightfully point out that 2025 was the third time in five seasons that Jackson was limited to 13 games or less. But it has to be acknowledged that the 2x MVP is inner-circle elite when talking about the games best QB’s. When available, Jackson elevates those around him, and gives the Ravens an opportunity to win any game he plays.

Question – Is this a year where Jackson plays 16 or 17 games, or is he limited to 12 or 13?  Jackson has had high praise for new Ravens OC Declan Doyle so far in camp.  Under this new system, and with hopefully better health than he experienced in ’25; do we see Jackson’s numbers rebound closer to his astounding 2024 production?  If the lower-body aliments are behind him, will Jackson run more in 2026?

Like –  Let’s get another obvious one out of the way – Derrick Henry is still a monster.  I know RB’s have a short shelf-life, and at 32 years old; I know some are expecting this is the year he falls off.  I’ve seen people point to his Yard Per Carry average dropping from 5.9 in ’24, to 5.2 as an indication of a precipitous drop coming for Henry in ’26, but that seems silly to me. That 5.2 ypc was still above his 4.9 ypc career average, and it tied James Cook for the most ypc of any RB in the league with 250+ carries for the year. Jackson wasn’t as good in ’25 as he was in ’24, and the blocking in-front of Henry wasn’t as good either. I’d be highly surprised if Henry wasn’t again excellent. I know some are concerned that Henry has 7 fumbles ( 1/3 of his career total ) over the past two seasons, but I can’t get there.  Feels more fluky to me vs. something to worry about.

Question – Justice Hill was limited to 10 games last year. That reduction in availability led to his catches dropping from 42 in ’24, to 21 last year.  Are Hill and Rasheen Ali only on the field on 3rd down? Are they productive enough in their time where the Ravens could potentially give Henry less than 300 carries? Should holding Henry to under 300 carries even be a goal for the Ravens? Or is the team best served vs. using Henry’s physicality over extended carries? Better to continue to feed Henry and have him eat at the will of opposing defenses?  Does 5th rounder Adam Randall push Ali?

Question – Are the Ravens going to miss Patrick Ricard more than some think? The 3x All-Pro, 6x Pro Bowler followed Harbaugh to the Giants. I understand a salary cap exists in the NFL and you can’t keep everyone. I understand FB’s are generally not in-vogue around the NFL and have been devalued. I think the Ravens have long-benefited by taking a contrarian view compared to most of the NFL, and continuing to feature a traditional blocking FB. Think it’s helped not only the running game, but the QB’s as well. And of course further accentuated the physicality the Ravens like to play with. Lucas Scott is in camp trying to earn a spot. FB is his 5th position in 5 years. I’m rooting for Scott to make the roster, and hopefully be good enough to contribute.

Like – I liked the selection of Vega Ioane. The 14th overall selection of the 2026 Draft checks all the boxes in-terms of bringing immediate strength, power, and young legs to the Ravens O-Line. I’m hopeful that Roger Rosengarten is ready to take a bit of leap in his 3rd year. Ethan Pocic was a pretty good late addition at Center, at-least in-terms of upside. He was a College All-American, and a 2nd round pick of Seattle in 2017. He had earned a contract extension with Cleveland in 2023. If he stays available, he should help.  I also like that in Danny Pinter they have a decent option behind Pocic. John Simpson was brought back to the Ravens, and will take over at LG.  Simpson stays on the field, is strong, and plays with an edge. Those are all positives. If he can be league average at Guard, that’s probably a win for the Ravens.  Year 11 is arriving for Ronnie Stanley, and you can generally still feel good about him at LT.  Emery Jones and Andrew Vorhees with Pinter is some solid line depth.  This group might not be an upper-echelon O-Line, but I generally like what Ravens GM Eric DeCosta has been able to accomplish here. I expect Ioane to be good immediately. If Rosengarten is stronger, and better in the run-game this year; that would go a long way to this being a productive unit.

Question – I liked the addition of Pocic. But he did turn 31 earlier this week, and is coming off of a Achilles suffered in Week 14 last year. He’s also never played in all 17 games of a season, though he has been pretty durable the last few years in Cleveland before the injury last year. While I generally feel pretty good about him, there has to be some question of if he will stay available. It also needs to be said that even in a best case scenario from Pocic, he doesn’t figure to be as good as the departed Tyler Linderbaum. Simpson brings some positives to the table at LG, but there also issues. He typically has graded as slightly below average at Guard, and has previously accumulated a lot of penalties. Can he curb the amount of flags he typically sees?   Stanley’s 2024 Pro Bowl season was really good. The biggest difference between Stanley’s ’24 and his ’25 season, is that Stanley’s production in pass-protection dropped. Can Doyle get the ball out of Jackson’s hands a bit quicker more often? That would figure to help Stanley and his fellow lineman in-general. Of course Jackson being able to extend plays, and create opportunities for the offense is part of his greatness so it’s a push-and-pull situation.

Like –  In the Draft the Ravens added WR Ja’Kobi Lane in the 3rd round, and WR Elijah Sarratt in the 4th round. They also added TE Matthew Hibner also in the 4th round, and fellow TE Josh Cuevas in the 5th. Lane is having a big Training Camp, and that reduces some of the anxiety which would otherwise exist. I liked Sarratt at Indiana. We’ve seen the big play potential of Decontez Walker in his first two years in the league. Durham Smythe should get a lot of time as a more traditional blocking TE opposite of Mark Andrews.  Obviously Zay Flowers is a quality weapon, and I thought he was deserving of the contract extension he just signed. Glad he will continue to be in the fold. Andrews is coming off a rough year (for him), but I’m still glad to have him. Don’t expect him to get the 113 targets he had in ’22, but won’t surprise me if his 8.8 yard per catch average in ’25 goes back up near his 12.3 yard per catch career average in ’26. The ankle injuries Rashod Bateman had last year resulted in a completely lost season for him. There is still ability there.

Question – There is still ability there with Bateman, but there are major questions too. The ankle injuries Bateman had last year were real, but there can’t be another season where he gives the Ravens nothing. That lost year also came after he signed a contract extension last Summer. In ’24, Bateman played in all 17 games, and had 72 targets. He averaged 16.8 years per catch on his 45 grabs, and had 9 TD’s. Can he match that production? I’d don’t need him to match the ’24 ypc average. I’d be happy if he stays available weekly, and can consistently help move the chains. Become a threat on 3rd down. Make some contested grabs. I like the Walker, Lane, Sarratt trio. I think there is potential there for them to help. I’d like to slow the breaks on the camp hype from Lane a bit.  It’s good that he’s opening eyes, and that it looks like he can give you something immediately. Going into the Draft, the ’25 Honorable Mention Big Ten WR saw a lot of scouting reports which questioned his ability to play through contact. My question overall with the WR’s is that outside of Flowers, who can you rely on? Who is going to show-up consistently? Given what exists around them, I’m glad to have Andrews back. Had it been a choice of one or the other, I would have liked to have been able to retain Isaiah Likely over him though. Won’t surprise me if Andrews has 50 catches and 600 yards; but I wish I wasn’t going into the year with lingering questions about why his production dropped so much last year. There were lots of weeks he was basically invisible last year. Does that happen again in ’26, or can he again be a presence? I was disappointed that the Ravens weren’t able to keep Charlie Kolar.  Smythe is coming off back-to-back seasons where he had a total of 13 receptions. He did have a four year stretch (’20-’23) where he averaged 27.5 receptions per year. Maybe he gets a bit more involved with the Ravens than he has the last two seasons with Miami and the Bears. As long as he can block as advertised, I’ll be happy there. Everyone likes Flowers.  I think everyone would like him that much better if he was your 2nd WR.

Like – One of my favorite likes so far – Welcome back Nnamdi Madubuike!  It was feared his career was over, and instead the All-Pro is back available. That’s huge. Travis Jones earned the contract extension he signed last December. Calais Campbell is back with the Ravens, and entering Year 19 in the NFL. The future Hall of Famer endured horrible personal tragedy this Summer with his family, and we feel horrible for him with that. But keeping this with the Ravens, I was excited about his addition. Maybe that excitement sounds a bit much considering Campbell turns 40 September 6th, but the 6’8 300 lb has long been known not just as a great talent, but also a fantastic individual that adds to any roster. Another adult in the room. Another coach as a player. That’s a quality add, that can help situationally. Keep him healthy and available for games in January. After the Maxx Crosby saga, the Ravens pivoted to Trey Hendrickson. All of the talk in March was that Hendrickson doesn’t set the Edge like Crosby. Okay, that counts, that’s fair.  He can rush the QB. He had back-to-back 17.5 sack seasons in ’23 and ’24.  Tavius Robinson has flashed the last two years as a pass rusher. Zion Young was the Ravens 2nd round pick out of Missouri. John Jenkins and Broderick Washington give the DL additional beef and depth. Mike Green had 3.5 sacks as a rookie. In Year 2, it feels like he could really emerge with the attention Hendrickson figures to command. I’ve seen a lot of complaints about Roquan Smith from Ravens fans the last two years. NFL Executives and Coaches recently ranked him as the 2nd best Off-Ball LB entering ’26.

Question – Hendrickson missed 10 games during ’25, and had a core muscle surgery in December. Obviously the Ravens need him consistently available. Madubuike being back at all is a win. The question right now is what level is he at? He was awesome in ’23. ’24 was a bit of a step back. In ’25 he was limited to 2 games. Can he stay available? How good is he right now? How many snaps a game is realistic?  It’s Year 4 for Trenton Simpson. There is an opportunity for him to step-up, will he take it? Teddye Buchanan had a very nice Rookie season last year, and then suffered an ACL tear in December. The Ravens seem to be very enthusiastic about Buchanan getting back sooner than later, but we will still need to see it.

Like – The Ravens starting Secondary is Kyle Hamilton, Malaki Starks, Nate Wiggins, Chidobe Awuzie, and Marlon Humphrey.  Hamilton is the best there is. Starks and Wiggins both have pedigree and upside.That’s a strong group, which will only be better if there is a more consistent pass rush in-front of them as expected. Jaylinn Hawkins, and TJ Tampa are good depth. Keyon Martin, and Chandler Rivers will fight for time at the Slot Corner.

Question – Humphrey struggled often during ’25, targeted often by opposing QB’s and he was picked on. Part of that was nagging injuries, and part of that was him just being that much older. This is year 10 for Humphrey. Generally, I feel like he’s been under appreciated. He’s a 2x All-Pro (the last being ’24), and a 4x Pro Bowler. He doesn’t have to lead this group at this point of his career, but he can really elevate this group overall if he rebounds from last year. Year 2 for Starks, I want to see him fully emerge this year.  Similarly it’s Year 3 for Wiggins. In ’25, his snap count went way up, and he had moments where he looked good. He also had times that like Humphrey he was picked on. Came out after the season that he spent most of the 2nd half of ’25 dealing with a nagging groin-injury. By all accounts, he’s having a quality Training Camp. He’s supposedly added some needed strength. He doesn’t have to be Deion Sanders or Darrelle Revis locking down half the field; but you need him taking the challenge of matching-up against the best opposing WR each week.

Question – Prior to ’25, game-day kicking footballs were kept under lock and key by game officials and handed to special teams units right before kickoff. Those balls were stiff. Before the ’25 season, a rule change allowed for teams to get 60 balls before the season to break in. This created a ’25 season where kickers had the average distance of field goal makes rise considerably. This will continue in ’26.  Basically there is a before and after in evaluating kicking from ’25 on.  Tyler Loop joined the Ravens last year as a Rookie, having to replace the greatest ever Kicker in the pre 2025 environment. That was hard enough. During his rookie campaign, he generally looked uncomfortable. He was 30 of 34 on FG attempts, and made 8 of 9 attempts from 40-49 yards, but was just 1 of 3 from 50+.  The miss from 40-49 was the 44 yard attempt vs. Pittsburgh in Week 18. Beyond the misses, after years of watching Tucker hit attempts down the middle, it was a bit eye-brow raising to see Loop look less accurate. He also missed 2 extra-points. Part of me wants to give Loop the benefit of the doubt. Believe he was in a tough position replacing someone that was historically great. Figure he will be better going into Year 2.  The other part of me thinks he’s one bad miss early in the year from completely losing the fanbase.  That’s not a great situation. Also, when the entire league is now attempting and hitting from greater distances; more needs to be asked of him this season.  We will see how he responds. At Punter, Jordan Stout had a Pro Bowl season and left to join Harbaugh in New York. The Ravens replaced him with their 6th round selection Ryan Eckley.  How good Loop and Eckley are will directly influence multiple games.

Like – In 2024 the Defense finished 6th in Defensive DVOA, and in ’25 they finished 16th. Even coming off of that ’24 ranking, there weren’t a lot of local backers for former Ravens DC Zach Orr. As the team production dropped in ’25, Orr absorbed most of the criticism. Fair or not, I like that the Ravens moved on. Not just because I think the new staff will be better, but because it allows the fanbase to turn the page as well. Minter is going to be the primary defensive play-caller. So, not only are you getting his strengths as a Coach – the buck falls on him.  Harbaugh had / has his strengths, but it was tiring over the years to hear how many times he absolved himself from the decision making process of his Coordinators. Minter has a great reputation as a defensive coach. The Ravens saw that first hand when he was here during his first stint as an Assistant. What he did at Michigan, and with the Chargers as their DC speaks for itself.  Bringing on Anthony Weaver (former Raven player and Coach) as the DC, with a focus on the Front 7 seems like a win. As does bringing on Mike Mickens for the Secondary.  Everything you read says the Ravens Defense is going to be ‘fast, violent, aggressive.’  Their going to be hunting turnovers. Their going to be more advanced schematically. And they have the players to be versatile.  On Offense, Doyle was the Coordinator last year for Chicago and had success. Love seeing the reports about how players are raving about his attention to detail.

Question – I’m excited about the Coaching changes.  But the flip-side does have to be mentioned. You went from long-term stability to a first time NFL Head Coach. Being great at X’s and O’s (which Minter is regarded as) doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll be great at leading men.  A Coordinator’s job is more about scheme.  A Head Coach’s job is more about keeping everyone rowing in the same direction. When it’s Training Camp, and everyone is excited about a new season, it’s relatively easy to stand in-front of the Press.  When you’ve had a tough loss, that job will become harder.  When/if the team faces real adversity, how do you respond? My sense is that 43 year old Minter will handle things well. I expect he will be able to connect with the locker-room. But there will be questions that are unanswerable until you see them unfold. I’m not going to be rooting for the Ravens to lose 4 of 5 games, or for Minter to make a poor decision with the clock. But if something like that happens, and the public becomes a bit antsy; is Minter able to keep the team focused?

The post Ravens: Likes And Questions As The Season Nears appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fact: The Orioles have traded away Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward, Dean Kremer, and Tyler Wells in-exchange for Anthony Eyanson, Kyson Witherspoon, Enddy Azocar, Carlos Narváez, Alex Hoppe, Brock Moore, Harrison Kreiling, Jhomnardo Reyes, and Michael Forret.  They also made smaller deals for Christian Franklin, Codi Heuer, and Rece Hinds.

Opinion: I can make a logical argument for each move individually. I acknowledge that Orioles General Manager Mike Elias added ceiling, depth, and control to the Orioles system. I still don’t like the decision making process when you look at the moves collectively.  Obviously the primary discussion point here is Rutschman.  Elias extracted value from Boston.  And the Red Sox likely paid more now, with Rutschman having 1.2 years left of team control; then they or another team would have paid this Winter for him. My feeling is the O’s would have still been able to trade Rutschman this Winter if need be, and I don’t think that hypothetical return would have been 50 cents on the dollar compared to the deal they did make.

What I said yesterday was, “Don’t think losing Rutshman, Ward, or Kremer in a vacuum, means a lot; but taken together, it’s a tough look even if you can reasonably understand each individual move.
Kremer is a 5th that was struggling his last 4 starts, and Bassitt is a reasonable answer to replace him, and Elias obtained a kid with helium and control. Ward hasn’t hit for the power expected, and is a below average LF.  The O’s can replace him in the lineup with Beavers, Kjerstad, Taveras, etc… and get similar production. Maybe the relievers obtained help. Rutschman – like Wieters – didn’t match the hype, but also like Wieters was a good player. A 3x All-Star. Your rep this year. He had the 3 stints on the IL this year, but they were largely fluky. I thought he had a better offensive approach this year vs. the last 2 years.  When he hasn’t been around, it’s been noticeable with the lineup. I haven’t seen the return, but I expect Elias extracted some value from Boston. And with Rutschman, you could argue now was the time to trade him if you weren’t going to reach an extension.”

After sleeping on it, looking at the returns, and adding the Wells trade; I feel the same.
The most valuable commodity in baseball is team control; but the most valuable thing in baseball is holding a Championship trophy and unfurling a banner.
I was okay with Elias trading off Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez at the 2022 Deadline, because that team was ahead of schedule.
I can’t get on-board the same way here in 2026, because the ’26 O’s are behind schedule.
The AL is not overwhelming this year, and despite being 4 games under .500 entering tonight, the O’s were 15-8 in July.
I believe post-season baseball is largely a roll-of-the-dice. The goal is to get there and take your chances.
FanGraphs is giving the O’s a 12% chance of reaching the post-season, so not great odds, but not nothing either.
Entering play tonight, the O’s are 2.5 games back of the 3rd Wild Card (Cleveland), and 5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card (Boston). Minnesota, Texas, Seattle, all ahead of the O’s, all 1-2 games back of Cleveland.

I generally think the play was improving, and that the O’s had a reasonable chance to get to October.
They still might.
If they do, you could say, “They still reached the post-season, and they fortified the system.” 
If that happens, that would be a very fair comment.
I think if they reach the post-season, my take will be that I would have liked having Rutschman available.

My overarching thought is, I would have rather seen the O’s either keep the roster as is, or add along the fringes to help the existing ML roster, vs. again deciding not to try.
Elias decided the odds weren’t good enough to try now, and the more prudent decision was adding more to the overall arsenal to try again tomorrow.

Part of me respects that.
You should want multiple bites at the apple vs. going all in once.
And while I might have enjoyed it in the moment, I don’t think I would have really supported going all in with major acquisitions of players with expiring team control utilizing the existing prospect pool.
I would have supported continuing with the current group for the remainder of ’26 and giving them a bit of help.
Another reliever capable of contributing in leverage situations. A defensive 4th OF.

Fact: Via MLB Pipeline, Eyanson becomes the Orioles top overall prospect, with Forret, Witherspoon, and Azocar also now in the Orioles Top 10.

Opinion: The system was pretty tapped before the trades and draft last year. Now with the 2026 Draft completed and these trades; the system strength is again pretty strong. Maybe not overwhelming quality at the top, but a good amount of guys that could possibly directly contribute to the ML roster, or give you the organizational depth necessary to make other trades.  If you were going to make the trades, I like the returns.  Elias added some legitimate talent.  Once you moved Rutschman, I certainly get moving Wells at that point. Getting Forret back in the organization was a nice move.

Fact: Carlos Narváez has a .535 OPS in a 171 ab’s this year for Boston.  He also had a .726 OPS in 403 ab’s last year, with 15 homers, and 27 doubles. He’s regarded as a strong defensive Catcher, and he is under team control through the 2031 season.

Opinion: If he can rebound offensively, you’ve got a nice pairing with him and Basallo long-term at Catcher.

Fact: Christian Franklin is starting in LF tonight for the O’s.

Opinion: The 26 year old Franklin had a .735 OPS in 426 plate appearances this year for AAA Rochester. Obtained from the Nationals for Joe Glassey. This year with Rochester he had 35 games in RF, 31 games in LF, and 17 in CF.  Presumably when he does play, he will be a better LF than Ward.  Obviously not a high bar there. Still, I think we would all enjoy seeing improved defense down the stretch. Curious to see how much playing time he gets.

Fact: Holliday, Mayo, Cowser, and Beavers are all in the lineup tonight.

Opinion: When we get to the off-season, and we start thinking about 2027; our optimism for believing the O’s can be more of a factor next year is going to largely be tied to how these guys finish out 2026.  Holliday had a .921 OPS in July. What can he do for encore here in August?  Plenty of playing time available for the other three as well. How do they perform these last two months?

Fact: Elias reported July 31st that Blaze Alexander’s bone is still healing (non-displaced fracture in left-hand). No timetable currently for his return.

Opinion: As I start thinking more about ’27, I envision Alexander penciled into Super Utility duty, with Jordan Westburg getting every opportunity to reclaim 3rd once he shows he’s healthy.

Fact: The O’s have given recent extensions to Basallo, Baz, Bradish, and Cano.  They obviously signed Alonso before this season.

Opinion: I think you can safely assume that if Orioles Owner David Rubenstein had taken ownership earlier, that Elias might have pushed for deals into the free agent seasons with Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Holliday.  There is some talk to be found the the O’s did offer Rutschman extension offers in the last year plus which were rejected. Presumably Henderson will want to reach Free Agency, but after a down for him ’25 with the shoulder injury, and this disappointing ’26 season; the deal he ultimately signs somewhere is not going to be as lucrative as it figured to be after the ’24 season.  I’d still be pushing for a deal with him now, offering him very significant money. Hoping he’d consider it with the way his ’26 has gone. My guess is Henderson would decline such a deal, and bet on himself to rebound in ’27.  If he rebounds in a big way, he probably prices himself out of a possible deal with the O’s.  If he rebounds and the team doesn’t, I think the O’s will have to look to trade him next Summer like they did with Rutschman yesterday. If the team rebounds, you probably ride out ’27.  Then maybe you deal him after the ’27 season (he’s a Free Agent after ’28).  I know some people are not super excited about Holliday at this point, but he’s not 23 until December, and the potential is still there. He’s not a Free Agent until after 2030. If you could get a deal done now that takes you through 2032 or 2033, that would be great.

Westburg is also a Free Agent after 2030. He will miss all of ’26, and was limited to 85 games in ’25. He’s 28 next February.  Given all the time he’s missed, could you tack on a year or two now? Is that a good risk given his age, and the injury history? Does the existing injury history make a deal viable?

Fact: Trevor Rogers was not traded yesterday.

Opinion: I didn’t want to see Rogers moved, but was surprised after Rutschman was dealt, that Rogers didn’t find a new home. Rogers was quoted leading up to the deadline saying he wants to stay in Baltimore. He’s a Free Agent to be.  I’d like to see a deal happen there. If you get a deal done before the off-season, you could go into Winter believing you had four spots (Bradish, Rogers, Baz, Young) in the rotation filled. I don’t see a scenario where the O’s obtain two starters with better upside than Rogers. Getting to the Winter and feeling like you have to fill two spots doesn’t seem ideal.

The post Facts & Opinions On The Orioles – August 4th appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Believe he’s capable of building a Championship team.

Can acknowledge that he was threading a needle here between a team that is 2.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card, and also 4 games under .500.

Don’t think losing Rutshman, Ward, or Kremer in a vacuum, means a lot; but taken together, it’s a tough look even if you can reasonably understand each individual move.

Kremer is a 5th that was struggling his last 4 starts, and Bassitt is a reasonable answer to replace him, and Elias obtained a kid with helium and control.

Ward hasn’t hit for the power expected, and is a below average LF.  The O’s can replace him in the lineup with Beavers, Kjerstad, Taveras, etc… and get similar production. Maybe the relievers obtained help.

Rutschman – like Wieters – didn’t match the hype, but also like Wieters was a good player. A 3x All-Star. Your rep this year. He had the 3 stints on the IL this year, but they were largely fluky. I thought he had a better offensive approach this year vs. the last 2 years.  When he hasn’t been around, it’s been noticeable with the lineup. I haven’t seen the return, but I expect Elias extracted some value from Boston. And with Rutschman, you could argue now was the time to trade him if you weren’t going to reach an extension.

But…

Kremer could potentially help you now. The 18 year old you obtained can’t. Twins 1.5 games up on the O’s in the WC race.

Rutschman made the O’s better now, and you’ve traded him to a division rival.  A team above you in the playoff race.

Ward traded to Seattle, a team a .5 game up on the O’s in the WC race. You’ve removed a guy that has a high on-base %, and has been in the lineup everyday. Is that a great message to the clubhouse?

Collectively, just a very tough look.

And as someone that genuinely likes Elias, I can’t justify it overall, even when I can make the individual arguments.

The fanbase isn’t going to get over this.

Hell, even if Bassitt is good, Kremer is bad, the in-house options seamlessly replace Ward…  and the O’s get past losing Rutschman and still make the post-season….    even if that all happens, once there the feeling will be…  “The O’s lineup would look better with Adley there.” 

Time to go.

Potential Replacements For Elias:

Jon Daniels – Former Rangers General Manager.  Currently a Senior Advisor with Tampa Bay.

Kim Ng – Former Marlins General Manager.  Currently outside the game entirely.

James Click – Former Astros General Manager.  Now VP of Baseball Strategy with Toronto.

Michael Fishman – Yankees VP / Assistant GM under Brian Cashman.

Amiel Sawdaye – Diamondbacks SVP / Assistant GM under Mike Hazen.  Baltimore native, Graduate of Pikesville High, and University of Maryland.

Cal Ripken Jr. –  The HOF, has an Ownership share, and is doing some Player Development work.  Obviously the name would sell, and the Ripken Way still carries weight. Especially with the current fundamental issues with the ML team.  Feels like Ripken would need to surround himself with a lot of Front Office experience.

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