The 49ers are 5-0 after winning in Seattle, and no NFC East team won a game. Washington and the Giants tied 27-27 when the Commanders ran out the clock in field-goal range. The Eagles lost in London on a 57-yard kick after a kickoff Nick Sirianni said he should not have allowed. Dallas lost at home to a one-win team quarterbacked by an undrafted rookie.

The Vikings are also 5-0, and still seventh in DVOA. The Chargers, Titans and Dolphins are 0-5.

Two changes start this week. The line lists are now weekly and judged against what each opponent usually allows. The win totals now republish every week.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 5 Recap

Lines are the ones we published before each game.

Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16 (Thursday)

Box score · Line: Cowboys -8.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: Jalon Daniels’ second start, on a short week, against DVOA’s last-ranked defense, with Tyler Smith eligible to return.

What decided it: The matchup we named, but on the ground. Tampa Bay ran 39 times for 241 yards, 165 of them from Bucky Irving, whose 72-yard run on the first play of the second half set up the go-ahead touchdown. Daniels went 19 of 25 for 189 yards with no turnovers. Dallas gave the ball away three times: two Dak Prescott interceptions and a KaVontae Turpin fumble on a kickoff. Joey Porter Jr. was a late scratch.

Jaguars 19, Eagles 17 (London)

Box score · Line: Jaguars -6.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: An Eagles offense with no second-half points in two weeks against a defense third in DVOA with a nine-game interception streak, with Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson’s statuses to settle.

What decided it: A kickoff. Jake Elliott put Philadelphia ahead 17-16 from 48 yards with eight seconds left. The Eagles kicked a returnable ball, Ameer Abdullah brought it back 53 yards with a second left, and Cam Little made a 57-yarder as time expired. Sirianni said afterward that the decision cost his team the game.

Barkley and Smith were out, Johnson had retired, center Cam Jurgens had been traded and Drew Kendall was hurt. The Eagles ran 18 times for 22 yards. Jacksonville kept them close by going 0 for 3 in the red zone, missing an extra point with a backup long snapper and taking 13 penalties for 100 yards. The interception streak ended at nine games.

Bengals 31, Dolphins 24

Box score · Line: Bengals -7, 42.5 · Our pick: Bengals

Expected: Whether Ja’Marr Chase cleared the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins was available, and Miami’s pass rush after its first four sacks.

What decided it: Chase cleared and caught six passes for 77 yards, including a one-handed 45-yard touchdown. Joe Burrow threw four touchdown passes, and Jordan Battle intercepted Malik Willis on back-to-back second-quarter drives. Miami ran 34 times for 217 yards, but it did not sack Burrow.

Packers 31, Bears 7

Box score · Line: Bears -3, 45.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: The league’s best rushing offense against a defense without Edgerrin Cooper, and whether Green Bay’s protection in Tampa was real.

What decided it: The protection was real, and the run game wasn’t there. Without Kyle Monangai, Chicago ran 24 times for 81 yards. Jordan Love went 25 of 31 for 367 yards, with Christian Watson catching 143 yards and two touchdowns and Matthew Golden adding 123. The Bears turned the ball over five times, including on four straight second-half possessions.

Jets 17, Browns 12

Box score · Line: Jets -2.5, 39.5 · Our pick: Browns

Expected: Cleveland’s five-man pressure and man coverage against an offense that ran 32 plays a week earlier, and Mason Graham’s knee.

What decided it: The pressure, from the other side. The Jets sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, three by rookie David Bailey, and Graham was inactive. With Cleveland up 12-10, a high snap went through punter Corey Bojorquez’s hands in the rain. Braelon Allen scored from 22 yards three plays later, and Will McDonald’s strip-sack on fourth down ended it.

Texans 26, Titans 3

Box score · Line: Texans -6.5, 38.5 · Our pick: Texans

Expected: Houston’s secondary after two blown two-score leads, and Tennessee’s three straight close losses.

What decided it: Neither; it was never close. In DeMeco Ryans’ first game back calling the defense, Houston held Tennessee to 187 yards. Will Anderson Jr. had three of the four sacks, and two early turnovers became field goals. C.J. Stroud threw for 261 yards and a touchdown and ran for another.

Steelers 34, Colts 22

Box score · Line: Steelers -2.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: Daniel Jones’ turnovers against a defense missing Derrick Harmon and possibly Jamel Dean, and Pittsburgh’s rest against the Colts’ trip back from London.

What decided it: Jaylen Warren. Jones did not turn the ball over, but Warren had 188 total yards, including an 80-yard catch-and-run and a 50-yard touchdown run. Harmon and Dean were both out, and the Colts still ran 24 times for 66 yards. Spencer Shrader kicked five field goals as Indianapolis stalled in Pittsburgh territory.

Patriots 45, Raiders 17

Box score · Line: Patriots -3.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: The top pass-blocking line against the seventh-ranked pass rush, the Raiders’ run game with Ashton Jeanty’s ankle, and an early kickoff in the east.

What decided it: New England’s protection, not Las Vegas’. Drake Maye was sacked once and went 26 of 34 for 374 yards and four touchdowns, and ran for a fifth. The Patriots gained 536 yards. The Raiders ran 18 times for 38 yards, and Fernando Mendoza made his debut in the fourth quarter.

Vikings 23, Saints 13

Box score · Line: Vikings -1.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Vikings

Expected: DVOA’s 31st offense against its 31st defense, Justin Jefferson’s ankle, and the Saints’ run defense.

What decided it: Minnesota’s defense, which held New Orleans to 142 yards. Jefferson returned and caught a 15-yard touchdown after the Saints fumbled the second-half kickoff. The Vikings ran 36 times for 153 yards, and Will Reichard made all three of his field goals from 40 yards or more.

Giants 27, Commanders 27 (OT)

Box score · Line: Commanders -3.5, 43.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: Washington’s quarterback, with Jayden Daniels’ return unconfirmed, Marcus Mariota hurt and Athan Kaliakmanis next.

What decided it: Nothing did, though both teams had it won. Daniels returned in an elbow brace, ran for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns, and put Washington up 27-13 in the fourth quarter. Jameis Winston answered with two 17-yard touchdown passes, the second to Malik Nabers with 1:43 left. In overtime Cam Skattebo fumbled in field-goal range. Daniels then went down at the Giants’ 24 with 12 seconds left and no timeouts, and the clock ran out before Washington could spike it. Dominic Zvada made two of five field goals for New York.

Broncos 23, Chargers 17

Box score · Line: Broncos -3.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: A Chargers line 30th in pass block, possibly without Joe Alt, against Denver’s front, and Denver’s injured cornerbacks.

What decided it: The matchup we named. Alt and Rashawn Slater were out, four rookies started on the line, and Justin Herbert was sacked five times. Jim Harbaugh’s failed fourth-and-1 early in the fourth quarter led to the tying touchdown. Zach Allen’s strip-sack then set up Wil Lutz’s go-ahead field goal. Denver won without Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, in Sean Payton’s first game back calling plays.

Lions 45, Cardinals 21

Box score · Line: Lions -4.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: The league’s worst scoring defense against Jacoby Brissett after three interceptions.

What decided it: Detroit’s defense, which held an opponent under 30 points for the first time this season. After Arizona’s opening touchdown the Lions had five sacks and held the Cardinals to 18 carries for 56 yards. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Marvin Harrison Jr. was inactive ahead of his trade to Houston.

49ers 32, Seahawks 29

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 47.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: The line that had not allowed a sack against the pass rush that is first in win rate.

What decided it: San Francisco’s defense, more than its line. The streak ended, with Brock Purdy sacked three times. But the 49ers sacked Sam Darnold five times without Nick Bosa. Renardo Green intercepted him twice, and Gracen Halton returned a fumble for a touchdown at the end of the first half. Purdy led two fourth-quarter scoring drives, Mike Evans caught 113 yards, and Eddy Pineiro won it from 43 yards with 1:56 left.

Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT)

Box score · Line: Falcons -3, 43.5 · Our pick: Falcons

Expected: Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and Baltimore’s fourth center against the third-ranked pass rush.

What decided it: Jackson didn’t play, and Baltimore won by running the ball. Behind Tyler Huntley, the Ravens ran 35 times for 208 yards against the league’s best run defense, with Derrick Henry gaining 102 and Justice Hill 73 on four carries. Down 23-15 with 2:31 left, Huntley drove them to a touchdown with 40 seconds left, and Henry ran in the two-point try. Huntley scored from the 1 in overtime, and Kyle Hamilton intercepted Tua Tagovailoa, in for the injured Michael Penix Jr.

Bills 37, Rams 34 (OT, Monday)

Box score · Line: Rams -2.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: Two top-five quarterbacks who had been loose with the ball, Buffalo’s 26th-ranked defense without Ed Oliver, and Aaron Donald’s possible return.

What decided it: Special teams. Donald played and recovered James Cook’s fumble early in overtime, but Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis’ field goal. Josh Allen then scrambled for 19 and 13 yards, and Tyler Bass won it from 45 with 1:55 left. Allen ran for 121 of his 331 total yards, and Buffalo rushed for 234. Sean McVay said the kicking units cost the Rams the game.

Power Rankings

The Jaguars move ahead of the Seahawks, as we said they might after San Francisco at Seattle and the London game. From this week our offensive and defensive line rankings are a factor here: they move the Lions, Falcons and Texans up and the Packers, Panthers and Cowboys down. The biggest moves are the Packers (up 8), Patriots and Steelers (up 7) and Raiders (down 8).

DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 5. Outside rankings: ESPN, Nate Davis, USA Today and Pete Prisco, CBS Sports. USA Today stands in for NFL.com, whose rankings were not up at build time.

1. 49ers (1). Five sacks, a defensive touchdown and two interceptions won in Seattle without Nick Bosa. DVOA has them first by 22 points.
2. Chiefs (2). Bye. The winless Chargers come to Kansas City; the offensive line is third in our rankings, the defensive line 28th.
3. Jaguars (4). Up one, past Seattle, as flagged last week. DVOA has had them second for two weeks, though London was sloppy: 0 for 3 in the red zone and 13 penalties.
4. Bills (5). Won a shootout with the Rams in overtime without DJ Moore or Ed Oliver. Josh Allen ran for 121 yards, behind our top-ranked offensive line.
5. Seahawks (3). Down two after losing at home to the 49ers, with two Sam Darnold interceptions and more running-back fumbles. Still our top defensive line.
6. Ravens (6). Held. Won in Atlanta with Tyler Huntley and a 208-yard run game, and lead the AFC North alone.
7. Vikings (9). Up two at 5-0. The defense allows the fewest points in the league; DVOA still has them only seventh.
8. Rams (7). Down one. A 2-3 team that DVOA has 10th, beaten in overtime by its kicking game: Harrison Mevis has missed three field goals.
9. Patriots (16). Up seven. Drake Maye has eight touchdowns and two turnovers in two weeks, after one touchdown and seven turnovers in his first three games (CBS Sports).
10. Lions (14). Up four. Both lines rank in our top 10, the defense held an opponent under 30 for the first time, and Jared Goff has 13 touchdowns and no turnovers (USA Today).
11. Broncos (10). Down one, only because Detroit passes them. Five sacks and three takeaways won in Los Angeles.
12. Bengals (13). Up one. Fifth in DVOA, but they let Miami run for 217 yards before the bye.
13. Bears (8). Down five after five turnovers in Green Bay. Caleb Williams is back at practice.
14. Steelers (21). Up seven. Jaylen Warren has carried the offense since Rico Dowdle’s injury, behind a line that entered our top 8.
15. Falcons (18). Up three. Lost in overtime, but both lines rank in our top 10. Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs decide the next few weeks.
16. Panthers (15). Down one. Ninth in DVOA and atop the NFC South, but their defensive line ranks 30th.
17. Packers (25). Up eight. Jordan Love threw for 367 yards, but both lines rank in the bottom six, and Javon Hargrave’s Achilles is the second season-ending injury in the front seven in two weeks.
18. Cowboys (12). Down six after losing at home to Tampa Bay. Their defensive line ranks last, and the defense has five sacks and no interceptions this season.
19. Raiders (11). Down eight. Two straight losses since a 3-0 start, and 25th in DVOA.
20. Texans (23). Up three. Eleventh in DVOA at 1-4, with our third-ranked defensive line, and they added Marvin Harrison Jr.
21. Giants (20). Down one. They lead the NFC East at 3-1-1, but DVOA has them 27th.
22. Eagles (17). Down five after three straight losses. Lane Johnson retired and Cam Jurgens was traded in the same week.
23. Browns (19). Down four. Eight sacks allowed to the Jets, and they have been outscored over a 3-2 start.
24. Colts (22). Down two. They lead the league in field-goal attempts because drives stall.
25. Buccaneers (29). Up four. Jalon Daniels’ first win, and 12th in DVOA.
26. Jets (26). Held. Eight sacks, three by rookie David Bailey.
27. Saints (24). Down three after a third straight home loss and 142 total yards.
28. Commanders (27). Down one. A tie that felt like a loss.
29. Cardinals (28). Down one. They have allowed 30 or more in four straight games and traded Harrison.
30. Chargers (30). Held. Thirteen turnovers, most in the league, and four rookies on the line.
31. Titans (31). Held. Three points and 187 yards against Houston.
32. Dolphins (32). Held. Willis threw two interceptions to a safety who said he had read his tell.

Offensive Lines

The Bills move to No. 1, the Chiefs and Bears climb, the Steelers enter, and the Raiders drop out. Each line is judged on the season: ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, sacks allowed and rushing, both measured against what its opponents’ defenses usually allow, and injuries that change who is available. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 5, rank in parentheses. Sack rate is sacks per dropback; the figure in parentheses is the difference from what the same opponents’ defenses averaged (negative is better). YPC in parentheses is the difference from what those defenses allowed (positive is better). Opponent averages are from CBS Sports team stats and include each opponent’s game against that team.

• Bills: the best run game against expectation in the league, and second in both win rates, against a schedule of pass rushes tougher than average. Spencer Brown, 91% in pass block win rate, hurt his back Monday.
• 49ers: three sacks allowed all season, all of them in Seattle. The run game is above average rather than dominant, which is the gap to Buffalo.
• Chiefs: third in run block win rate and 5.5 yards a carry, with four games played.
• Bears: fourth in pass block win rate against one of the tougher pass-rush schedules. The four sacks at Green Bay came with backup quarterbacks.
• Steelers: in on balance, eighth and ninth in the win rates, after allowing five sacks in Cleveland in Week 4.
• Lions: third in pass block, but 22nd in run block and slightly below expectation on the ground.
• Out: Raiders. First in pass block win rate, but 3.0 yards a carry is a full yard below what their opponents allow, against the easiest pass rushes anyone has faced.
• First out: Patriots (seventh on the numbers; left tackle Will Campbell’s knee injury keeps them out), Falcons, Raiders.
• Charting against results: Ravens (13th; 208 rushing yards in Atlanta, but 7.4% sack rate) and Packers (last in pass block win rate, yet a sack rate better than their opponents allow).
• Watch in Week 6: Brown’s back at Las Vegas; Campbell’s status against the Jets’ eight-sack front; Cam Jurgens’ debut at center for Baltimore.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Defensive Lines

The Texans, Lions and Chargers enter, and the Rams, Ravens and Patriots drop out. The same four measures apply: pass rush and run stop win rates, sacks against what opponents’ lines usually allow, and run defense against what those offenses usually gain, with injuries on top. FTN’s public listing has total DVOA only this week, so defensive DVOA is held for next week.

Sack rate is sacks per opponent dropback; in parentheses, the difference from what the same opponents’ lines allowed (positive is better). YPC allowed in parentheses is the difference from what those offenses gained (negative is better).

• Texans: the biggest sack rate above expectation in the league, and the second-best run defense against expectation. Will Anderson Jr. had three sacks in Tennessee. Their win rates lag the results.
• Lions: third in pass rush win rate, and sacking quarterbacks well above what their lines allow. Detroit’s poor scoring defense has been the secondary, not the front.
• Falcons: fourth and seventh in the win rates, though the sacks lag. Jalon Walker (ACL) and James Pearce Jr. (suspension) are out, and Za’Darius Smith was in the concussion protocol.
• Chargers: first in run stop win rate and above expectation on sacks, on an 0-5 team. Bud Dupree left Week 5 with a neck injury.
• 49ers: down two. Even after five sacks in Seattle, their season sack rate is only about what their opponents’ lines usually allow. Nick Bosa’s calf is the injury to watch.
• Broncos: a sack rate two points above expectation, but run defense slightly below; held at eighth.
• Out: Rams. Twelfth on the numbers. Myles Garrett is on injured reserve and not expected to start practicing this week.
• Out: Ravens. Tenth, and exactly at expectation on sacks without Trey Hendrickson.
• Out: Patriots. Thirteenth, 25th in run stop win rate.
• First out: Browns (seventh on the numbers, but Mason Graham is week to week and Mike Hall Jr. was inactive), Jaguars (the best run defense in yards per carry, 31st in run stop win rate), Jets.
• Giants: 22nd on the numbers. Not restored on win rate alone.
• Scheme caveat: Minnesota blitzes on 68% of dropbacks, so some of its pressure is the coordinator’s.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Win Totals

The Patriots move into the AFC field and the Raiders drop out of it; Dallas keeps the NFC East at 9-8. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 78 wins and that tie banked through Week 5. Kansas City, first team out in August, is still the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

• AFC seeds: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, Ravens; wild cards Broncos, Bengals, Patriots; first out, Steelers.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys; wild cards Seahawks, then two of the Lions, Bears and Rams; first out, the third of those.
• Ties we could not project: Buffalo and Jacksonville; the three AFC wild cards; the Lions, Bears and Rams.

What moved:

• Up: Buccaneers +2 (first win, 12th in DVOA, Baker Mayfield due back); Vikings, Patriots, Lions, Packers, Steelers and Texans +1.
• Down: Raiders -2 (two straight losses, 25th in DVOA); Cowboys, Eagles, Bears, Browns, Rams, Falcons and Saints -1.
• Eagles 8-9: the line lost Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens in one week, and the offense has the most three-and-outs in the league (ESPN).
• Falcons 8-9: depends on Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs; FTN projects 8.1 wins.
• For comparison, FTN’s simulation gives Dallas a 37.2% chance at the NFC East and Carolina 46.1% in the South (FTN playoff odds).

Calls most likely to need moving after Week 6:

• Cowboys 9-8 at Green Bay (8-9), with the Giants hosting the Saints and the Eagles hosting Carolina.
• Bears 10-7 at Atlanta (8-9), with Caleb Williams and Penix both uncertain.
• Seahawks 11-6 at Denver (10-7) on a short week.
• Patriots 10-7 against the Jets, and Raiders 8-9 against Buffalo.
• Texans 7-10 against the Jaguars (12-5) in London.

Week 6 Preview

The line and the model split on three games, all with a road team favored by ESPN and the home team by 1.5 points; we took the line twice (Giants, Packers) and the model once (Panthers). The Bengals, Dolphins, Vikings and Lions are on bye.

Seahawks at Broncos (Thursday)

Line: Seahawks -3, 40.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 52.1%

Key to the Game: Both teams played Sunday. Seattle’s backfield has lost two more fumbles and won’t have Zach Charbonnet. Denver’s offense has needed its defense to set up short fields, and the Broncos are still without Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss.

Our Pick: Seahawks. The better defense on a short week, though Sam Darnold’s interceptions make this close.

Texans vs. Jaguars (London)

Line: Jaguars -3, 42.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 58.8%

Key to the Game: Jacksonville’s red zone after going 0 for 3 against the Eagles, against a Houston defense with DeMeco Ryans calling it again. Left tackle Anton Harrison was carted off in London. Marvin Harrison Jr. could debut for Houston, and David Montgomery hurt his groin.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Bears at Falcons

Line: Bears -3, 49.5 · ESPN: Bears 60.1%

Key to the Game: Two quarterbacks: Caleb Williams is back at practice from his hamstring, and Michael Penix Jr. is hurt in his ribs. Atlanta’s run defense was the league’s best until Baltimore ran for 208 yards.

Our Pick: Bears. The pick assumes Williams plays and Penix doesn’t; reverse either and this flips.

Ravens at Browns

Line: Ravens -4.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Ravens 65.8%

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and Cam Jurgens’ debut at center against a Cleveland front with Jared Verse and possibly Mason Graham. The Browns allowed eight sacks in New York and may be without right tackle Tytus Howard and receiver KC Concepcion.

Our Pick: Ravens.

Titans at Colts

Line: Colts -7, 44.5 · ESPN: Colts 72%

Key to the Game: A Tennessee offense averaging 10.4 points against an Indianapolis offense that settles for field goals. The Colts lead the league in field-goal attempts.

Our Pick: Colts.

Jets at Patriots

Line: Patriots -7, 43.5 · ESPN: Patriots 78.9%

Key to the Game: David Bailey and an eight-sack Jets front against a New England line that may be without left tackle Will Campbell. A.J. Brown could return for the Patriots, whose cornerback room is down to a few healthy players.

Our Pick: Patriots.

Saints at Giants

Line: Giants -1.5, 45.5 · ESPN: Saints 54.1%

Key to the Game: A Giants run defense allowing 5.19 yards a carry, 30th in the league, against a Saints offense held to 142 yards. New York’s kicking cost it a win in Washington, and Tyler Shough is playing with a hurt non-throwing hand.

Our Pick: Giants. The line over the model: the Saints have lost three straight and rank 30th in DVOA.

Panthers at Eagles

Line: Eagles -1.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Panthers 50.5%

Key to the Game: Carolina’s top-ranked passing offense against an Eagles defense that has worn down in fourth quarters, behind an offense with the most three-and-outs in the league. The Panthers start two backup cornerbacks, but Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton are due back from the bye.

Our Pick: Panthers. The model over the line: Philadelphia has lost three straight and two starting linemen in a week.

Steelers at Buccaneers

Line: Steelers -3, 40.5 · ESPN: Steelers 59.4%

Key to the Game: Bucky Irving and a Tampa Bay run game that just gained 241 yards, against Pittsburgh’s run defense. Baker Mayfield is not expected back until Week 7 at the earliest.

Our Pick: Steelers.

Cardinals at Rams

Line: Rams -12.5, 52.5 · ESPN: Rams 87.1%

Key to the Game: Arizona allows a league-worst 8.5 net yards per pass attempt. The Rams’ kicking game is the one thing that has cost them close games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Chargers at Chiefs

Line: Chiefs -8.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 74.3%

Key to the Game: A Kansas City pass rush that pressures without finishing, against a Chargers line of four rookies. Justin Herbert has turned the ball over in five straight games.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Bills at Raiders

Line: Bills -6, 52.5 · ESPN: Bills 69.7%

Key to the Game: A Raiders run game that gained 38 yards in New England, against a Buffalo defense thin at cornerback. Right tackle Spencer Brown hurt his back Monday.

Our Pick: Bills.

Cowboys at Packers (Sunday night)

Line: Packers -1.5, 52.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 52.1%

Key to the Game: Jordan Love’s deep ball against a Dallas defense allowing 72.3% completions and last against the run. Micah Parsons won’t play, and CeeDee Lamb left Thursday with a quadriceps injury.

Our Pick: Packers. The line over the model: Dallas’ defense has given us no reason to trust it on the road.

Commanders at 49ers (Monday)

Line: 49ers -7.5, 50.5 · ESPN: 49ers 82.6%

Key to the Game: Jayden Daniels’ scrambling against a 49ers defense that just sacked Sam Darnold five times, and a Washington defense that has allowed 20 or more second-half points in four straight games. Deebo Samuel hurt his hamstring in Seattle.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

Four head coaches blamed themselves. Nick Sirianni (the London kickoff), Jim Harbaugh (the fourth-and-1), Sean McVay (a conservative third-down call before the blocked field goal) and Dan Quinn (the overtime clock) all took the loss, or the tie, on themselves. Three of the four games were decided by three points or fewer.

Special teams decided four games. A 53-yard kickoff return and a 57-yard field goal in London, a fumbled punt snap in New Jersey, a blocked field goal in Los Angeles, and a 2-of-5 kicking day in Washington. Green Bay’s Trey Smack also missed two field goals and an extra point in a 24-point win.

Two head coaches took back the play calls, and both won. Sean Payton took Denver’s offense back from Davis Webb, and DeMeco Ryans took Houston’s defense back from Matt Burke. The Texans held Tennessee to 187 yards. Denver’s offense looked much as it had under Webb (Ringer Staff), and Seattle arrives Thursday.

The post 2026 NFL: Previewing Week 6 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Texas Tech is No. 9 in the first version and unranked in the second. Gonzaga is 14th or 22nd. St. John’s is 10th or 20th. In August, LSU had four confirmed players on its roster.

That is the best shorthand for the season ahead. The sport’s rankings now depend on its court dockets. The NCAA’s new five-for-five eligibility rule passed in June and did not cover last year’s seniors, so they sued. A judge in Indiana granted nearly 90 of them a preliminary injunction. Kansas got two starters back that way, at least for now. Florida got a guard from its 2025 title team. Arizona’s case as a title favorite rests on one ruling for one power forward.

Two other facts frame everything below.

The field is 76. The men’s and women’s committees voted to expand the NCAA Tournament from 68 teams, starting this season. ESPN’s first bracket projects 12 SEC teams, 11 from the Big 12 and 11 from the Big Ten. The bubble is now a place where a 9-9 league record lives comfortably.

The champion lost its coach. Michigan went 37-3 and won the title. Then Dusty May left for the Dallas Mavericks. The last coach to win a championship and leave immediately was Larry Brown at Kansas in 1988, and the Jayhawks missed the next tournament. Michigan also lost three lottery picks, then lost five-star freshman Brandon McCoy to a torn ACL in August.

So the top is unsettled in a way it rarely is. Both major models have Duke first. Torvik puts Arizona second and Florida third; KenPom has Florida second and Houston third. CBS and ESPN both have Florida first. Nobody has the defending champion in the top nine.

The season tips Nov. 1, when Villanova plays Notre Dame in Rome. Here’s ours.

Top 20 Power Rankings Entering 2026-27

Power ranking is a neutral-floor question. Final Four percentage is a different one: it folds in eligibility risk, injury timelines and how fragile a roster is. That is why Texas Tech can sit 16th here with a ceiling well above it.

Every model number in this piece comes from Bart Torvik’s preseason T-Rank projections unless another source is named.

These sum to roughly 2.8 of the four spots. The rest belongs to the field: Nebraska, Ohio State, Vanderbilt, UCLA, USC, Purdue, Kentucky, BYU, Missouri and Indiana.

Who’s Waiting On A Judge

Thirteen of our top 20 have at least one player waiting on an eligibility ruling, per ESPN’s Oct. 11 roster tracker. Seven do not: Duke, Illinois, UConn, Michigan State, Virginia, Texas and Arkansas. Our rankings assume the players below are available. Where a ruling goes the other way, so does the team.

Also waiting: Missouri (Mark Mitchell), BYU (Jaxon Kohler), Clemson (Dillon Hunter), Oklahoma State (Parsa Fallah, Kashie Natt), Oklahoma (B.J. Edwards, Duke Brennan), Providence (Dink Pate and two others), Creighton (Brody Robinson, Fred King), Xavier (Filip Borovicanin), Georgetown (Vince Iwuchukwu), Minnesota (Cade Tyson), Penn State (Josh Reed), Indiana (Sam Alexis) and LSU, which has six players in limbo and nobody returning from last season.

Consensus check (top ten)

Our biggest gaps from the human polls: Houston ten spots higher than ESPN, Virginia six spots higher than ESPN, and Texas four spots lower than CBS.

The market mostly agrees at the top. FanDuel’s six shortest prices belong to our top six, with UConn third instead of fifth. The splits come after that. FanDuel has Texas Tech at +2200, tied for seventh, where we have the Red Raiders 16th. It has Houston at +3000, tied for 11th, where we have the Cougars eighth. And it prices Kentucky (+3500) ahead of the defending champion, with LSU level with Michigan at +4000.

The second model. KenPom’s first ratings, released Oct. 12th, agree with Torvik at the top: Duke, Florida, Illinois and Arizona are top five in both. KenPom backs us hardest on Houston, third with the No. 1 defense in the country. It does not back us on Virginia (15th) or Louisville (17th). Both models have UConn 11th, which makes us, CBS and ESPN the high voices there. And KenPom has Iowa State sixth with the No. 2 defense, 12 spots above where we have the Cyclones.

Five Teams We Like Better Than The Projections

1. Virginia. ESPN has the Cavaliers 13th. Torvik has them fourth, with the No. 2 offense in the country. Ryan Odom won 30 games in year one and brought back Thijs De Ridder, CBS’s preseason ACC Player of the Year, plus Sam Lewis, Chance Mallory and Johann Grunloh. FanDuel prices them 10th at +2500. The portal class drew no headlines because all four transfers came from mid-majors. That’s a team being ranked on brand, when the roster says top ten. KenPom is less convinced, at 15th, so this case rests on Torvik. One more thing in its favor: no Virginia player is waiting on an eligibility ruling.

2. Nebraska. Unranked by CBS, in ESPN’s “next five,” and 13th in Torvik with a projected 23-9 record. The Huskers were picked fifth in the Big Ten and return Pryce Sandfort, a preseason all-conference pick who averaged 18.1 points and shot 41.6% from three. The models see a top-15 team. The polls haven’t caught up, and KenPom agrees with the model at 16th. The risk is the defense: Nebraska lost four of its best defenders, and CBS expects a real step back from a unit Torvik still ranks 11th.

3. Indiana. The Hoosiers went 18-14 and missed the tournament, so the Big Ten media picked them ninth. Darian DeVries then rebuilt the frontcourt with 6-10 Aiden Sherrell (Alabama) and 7-2 Samet Yigitoglu (SMU), and added Notre Dame’s Markus Burton to run the offense. Torvik has only 6.7% of last year’s minutes returning and still ranks Indiana 28th. That is a statement about the incoming talent. KenPom is cooler, at 47th, so this one is more our call than the models’.

4. Auburn. A 1-7 stretch cost the Tigers a bid last year, and they won the NIT instead. Steven Pearl’s answer was age. All five transfers are entering their fourth college season, and the two international additions will be 24 and 22. Tahaad Pettiford and Kevin Overton both return. ESPN’s bracket has Auburn as a 9 seed, and we think that’s the floor. KenPom has the Tigers 25th.

5. Oklahoma State. ESPN’s last team in the field. Steve Lutz kept point guard Kanye Clary, signed two top-35 freshmen including McDonald’s All-American Latrell Allmond, and added shooting and size in the portal. The Big 12 wants ten tournament teams for the first time. The Cowboys are the tenth. Two rotation pieces, Parsa Fallah and Kashie Natt, are waiting on eligibility rulings.

Also considered: Iowa (Ben McCollum returns more than half his scoring and adds a 7-3 center), Villanova (ranked 347th in block rate last year and now has 7-4 Luigi Suigo), West Virginia, and USC.

Five Teams We Like Less Than The Projections

1. Texas. CBS has the Longhorns fifth and ESPN has them seventh. Torvik has them 16th. Texas went 21-15 and 9-9 in the SEC, lost five of its last six before Selection Sunday, squeaked into the First Four as an 11 seed and got hot for two weeks. One of the top two scorers returns. The talent is real, but a top-five ranking asks five transfers and two freshmen to fit together by January in the deepest league in the country. DraftKings prices Texas fourth in the SEC, behind Alabama and Tennessee, and KenPom has the Longhorns 10th.

2. Texas Tech. ESPN’s No. 9 team is also ESPN’s unranked team, depending on three court rulings. On top of that, JT Toppin is coming off a February ACL tear and is not expected to start the season. That is two separate things that both have to break right. We have the Red Raiders 16th and think that’s generous if either one doesn’t. FanDuel has them at +2200, tied for the seventh-shortest price on the board. KenPom is also higher than we are, at 12th, so this fade is about availability more than talent.

3. Missouri. ESPN has the Tigers 16th and Torvik has them 41st with a projected 8-10 league record. The gap is Mark Mitchell, the All-SEC forward who needs a fifth year. Without him ESPN drops them to 19th, and the offense leans on a freshman point guard in a league with 12 projected tournament teams. DraftKings has Missouri 13th of 16 in the SEC title market at +5600, and KenPom has the Tigers 48th.

4. North Carolina. Michael Malone has an NBA title and no college head coaching experience. His first roster is thin up front, and 7-footer Sayon Keita was still not on campus over the summer. CBS’s panel picked the Heels fifth in the ACC. Torvik has them 48th nationally, behind Virginia Tech, Clemson and NC State. DraftKings has them eighth in the ACC at +4700, and KenPom has them 37th.

5. Purdue. Picked sixth in the Big Ten after three straight years as the preseason favorite, and that may still be high. CBS’s panel has the Boilermakers eighth. KenPom is kinder, at 24th nationally and fifth in the league. Purdue returns 38.6% of its scoring. Its most notable newcomer, Caden Pierce, did not play basketball last season. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn are all gone.

Fades the market has already made, so we won’t take credit: Michigan (22nd at ESPN), Kentucky (25th at ESPN, 29-26 against high-major teams under Mark Pope), UCF.

Conference Deep Dives

The SEC

Overview. Sixteen teams, and ESPN’s first bracket puts 12 of them in the field. CBS argues 11 of the 16 rosters are Top 25 caliber. The reason is money. Even the league’s poorest programs have close to $8 million for a roster, and the richest are past $20 million.

CBS’s panel was unanimous: Florida first, Texas second. The league sent a record 14 teams to the 2025 tournament and 10 last year, when it had a quarter of the Sweet 16 and none of the Final Four. Seven of last season’s 15 All-SEC players return, and LSU’s Will Wade is the only new head coach.

It shows in the portal ledger. The SEC kept 10 of its top 30 scorers from last season and took 11 top-30 scorers from the other four major conferences. No league has more proven production.

It also has a clear No. 1. Florida won the league by three games and brought nearly everyone back.

The market. DraftKings makes Florida +108 to win the regular-season title, about a 40% chance once the bookmaker’s margin is removed. After that it splits from us: Alabama is second at +620 and Tennessee third at +920, with Texas fourth at +1100. We have Texas second, and we are already lower on the Longhorns than CBS or ESPN.

1. Florida — SEC title odds: 38%

• Strength: The frontcourt. Thomas Haugh (17.1 points), Alex Condon (14.9) and Rueben Chinyelu (11.2) all started for the 2025 champions. Todd Golden has produced back-to-back top-10 defenses.
• Weakness: Perimeter shooting. Florida shot 31.2% from three last season, 321st nationally, and Haugh shot 32.6%.
• The question: This same core lost to Iowa in the second round as a No. 1 seed. Was that a bad night or a tell?
• Watch: Denzel Aberdeen’s injunction. If it holds, the 2025 title team’s first guard off the bench starts next to Boogie Fland.
• Circle: vs. Duke, Dec. 1, in Gainesville. The opener is Miami in Tampa on Nov. 2.

2. Texas — 11%

• Strength: Size, free throws and the No. 1 incoming class in the country by 247Sports’ combined ranking. Matas Vokietaitis drew 8.3 fouls per 40 minutes, and new point guard Isaiah Johnson was in the 94th percentile in free throw rate at Colorado.
• Weakness: Shooting and continuity. David Punch made 11 threes all of last season, and Mikey Lewis will miss non-conference time with a foot injury.
• The question: Sean Miller signed Marcus Spears Jr., who was the No. 1 recruit in the 2027 class before reclassifying. Is he ready to matter in March a year early?
• Circle: at Louisville, Dec. 1. Then Florida comes to Austin on Jan. 2.

3. Tennessee — 10%

• Strength: Scoring, for once. Juke Harris (21.4 points at Wake Forest), Jalen Haralson (16.2 at Notre Dame) and Terrence Hill Jr. (15.0 at VCU) can all create.
• Weakness: Everything is new. The top six scorers left, and Torvik has 14% of last year’s minutes returning. Vanderbilt transfer Jalen Washington is still awaiting eligibility.
• The question: Rick Barnes has had a top-five defense five times in six seasons and never an offense better than 17th. Can he flip the formula without losing the defense?
• Circle: vs. Michigan State, Nov. 17, in Knoxville. Maryland in Las Vegas is a week later.

4. Arkansas — 8%

• Strength: Talent. John Calipari has the No. 1 recruiting class, led by Jordan Smith Jr., a projected top-five pick.
• Weakness: Age. Billy Richmond III is the only one of last year’s top four scorers back, on a team replacing unanimous SEC Player of the Year Darius Acuff Jr.
• The question: The rest of the sport got older. Can Calipari’s freshman model still reach a Final Four, something he hasn’t done in more than a decade?
• Circle: vs. Virginia, Nov. 8, in Washington. Michigan State on Thanksgiving in Detroit and Arizona on Dec. 19 in Phoenix follow.

5. Alabama — 8%

• Strength: Nate Oats. Alabama has been a top-three halfcourt offense in the SEC for six straight seasons. Aden Holloway (16.8 points, 44% from three) and Amari Allen are a first-round-caliber backcourt.
• Weakness: Labaron Philon is gone, and with him the low turnover rate.
• The question: Holloway is due back Nov. 9 after missing two games, but ESPN’s Oct. 11 roster tracker still lists him in limbo. Is the off-court drama finished?
• Circle: vs. Houston, Dec. 8, at Madison Square Garden in the Jimmy V Classic.

6. Vanderbilt — 5%

• Strength: Tyler Tanner, who averaged 19.5 points, made first-team All-SEC and pulled out of the draft. Vanderbilt started 16-0 last season.
• Weakness: Five new rotation players around him.
• The question: Vanderbilt has not reached the second weekend since 2007. Is this the roster?
• Circle: at Ohio State, Nov. 24.

On Kentucky outside the top six. Mark Pope is 29-26 against high-major opponents and enters year three with his job in question. He landed the best shooter in the country in Milan Momcilovic, who made 136 threes at a 48.7% clip at Iowa State, and kept center Malachi Moreno. CBS’s panel has Kentucky sixth. Torvik projects 9-9 in the league. That would not be enough.

The other 20% belongs to Kentucky, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas A&M.

The Big Ten

Overview. The defending national champion plays here and was picked third. Illinois took 18 of 28 first-place votes in the media poll, Michigan State took nine and Michigan took one. Last year only two teams received a first-place vote, and they met in the conference title game.

All five CBS panelists picked Illinois first and Michigan State second. Four of the five had Michigan third.

The league is deep in the same way the SEC is. ESPN projects 11 Big Ten teams in the field, and Torvik has nine in his top 31. Purdue, the preseason favorite for three straight years, was picked sixth.

One late change: Oregon’s Dana Altman retired less than a month before the season, and assistant Tony Stubblefield, the former DePaul head coach, is the interim for 2026-27. The Ducks were already ESPN’s first team out.

The market. DraftKings has Illinois at +120, about a 38% chance with the margin removed, then Michigan State (+475) and Michigan (+730). Nebraska is fourth at +940, which is where we have the Huskers and two spots above CBS’s panel.

1. Illinois — Big Ten title odds: 34%

• Strength: The best offense in the country by Torvik’s numbers. No team gets more threes from its frontcourt, and David Mirkovic, Andrej Stojakovic and Tomislav Ivisic all return from a Final Four team.
• Weakness: The backcourt is new. Stefan Vaaks (15.8 points at Providence) and freshman Quentin Coleman replace Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell, and Vaaks is not a defender. Mirkovic is also coming back from offseason foot surgery.
• The question: Torvik has the defense 18th. Is that good enough to win six games in March?
• Circle: at Duke, Nov. 17. Then UConn in Chicago on Dec. 4, and Michigan State’s only visit to Champaign on Feb. 5.

2. Michigan State — 20%

• Strength: Jeremy Fears Jr., the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year. He has Coen Carr, a healthy Kaleb Glenn and a top-10 recruiting class around him.
• Weakness: Center and turnovers. Carson Cooper is gone, and 7-2 Charlotte transfer Anton Bonke is not his equal defensively. Michigan State turned it over on 17.7% of its Big Ten possessions, 16th in the league.
• The question: CBS calls this the best Michigan State offense in years. Tom Izzo’s teams always defend and rebound. Do they finally score with the top of the league?
• Circle: vs. Duke, Nov. 10, in Chicago at the Champions Classic. At Tennessee a week later.

3. Michigan — 10%

• Strength: Elliot Cadeau was the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player, and Trey McKenney is on most breakout lists. Mike Boynton kept the roster together after Dusty May left.
• Weakness: Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara were the best frontcourt in the sport. Their replacements, Moustapha Thiam and J.P. Estrella, are talented and unproven at this level. Projected starting wing Roddy Gayle Jr. is waiting on a fifth-year ruling.
• The question: Boynton got a two-year deal. Is this an audition or a succession?
• Circle: vs. UConn, Nov. 6, in Boston. A title-game rematch in the first week.

4. Nebraska — 8%

• Strength: Offense. Pryce Sandfort made 129 threes and shot 70% at the rim, and Nebraska was in the 99th percentile in efficiency off cuts. All five projected starters can pass, dribble and shoot.
• Weakness: Defense. Sam Hoiberg, Berke Buyuktuncel, Rienk Mast and Jamarques Lawrence are all gone.
• The question: Torvik ranks this defense 11th. CBS puts the odds of another top-10 unit near zero and picked the Huskers sixth. We side with the model, narrowly.
• Circle: at Creighton, Dec. 5.

5. UCLA — 7%

• Strength: Three starters back from a 24-win team, plus Texas Tech transfer Jaylen Petty.
• Weakness: Rim protection. The Bruins also missed on several high-profile portal targets.
• The question: Nikola Kusturica turned 17 in April and may be the No. 1 pick in 2028. How fast does he adjust?
• Circle: vs. Arizona, Nov. 2, in Las Vegas on opening night. Gonzaga in Anaheim on Dec. 5.

6. USC — 4%

• Strength: Five McDonald’s All-Americans. Rodney Rice was averaging more than 20 points before he got hurt, and Alijah Arenas is a 2027 draft name.
• Weakness: Health and shot distribution. Eric Reibe and KJ Lewis spent much of the offseason recovering from injuries.
• The question: USC went 18-14 and missed the tournament. Is this Eric Musselman’s most talented team or just his most expensive?
• Circle: vs. Texas Tech, Dec. 13, in Fort Worth, as reported. USC has not published a full schedule.

The other 17% belongs to Purdue, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa and Maryland. Maryland, picked 12th, gets its own section below.

The Big 12

Overview. Sixteen teams, eight in last year’s tournament, and the top two picks in the 2026 NBA Draft in BYU’s AJ Dybantsa and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson. The league office has said its goal is ten tournament teams. ESPN’s first bracket gives it 11.

Three of Torvik’s top eight are here: Arizona, Houston and Kansas. All five CBS panelists picked Arizona to win the league. They split three ways on second.

The market. DraftKings has Arizona at +205, about a 28% chance with the margin removed. Kansas (+415) and Houston (+425) are effectively level behind it, then Iowa State (+560) and Texas Tech (+680). The same Texas Tech team that is tied for seventh on FanDuel’s national title board is fifth in its own league.

1. Arizona — Big 12 title odds: 30%

• Strength: Defense. Motiejus Krivas is a 7-2 rim protector, Ivan Kharchenkov is one of the best wing defenders in the league, and Torvik ranks the unit second nationally.
• Weakness: Turnover. Koa Peat left, two of the top five scorers return, and both point guards are transfers.
• The question: Tommy Lloyd turned down North Carolina after taking Arizona to its first Final Four since 2001. Can five-star freshman Caleb Holt make it two straight?
• Circle: vs. UConn, Nov. 18, in Tucson. The rest of the slate is UCLA, at Auburn, the Maui Invitational, St. John’s at Madison Square Garden and Arkansas.

2. Houston — 17%

• Strength: The floor. Houston has finished in KenPom’s top four every year Joseph Tugler has been on the roster, and he was the league’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2025.
• Weakness: Scoring. Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and Chris Cenac are gone. Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty combined for 9.2 points per game.
• The question: Is LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr. the next Houston point guard who looks better in this system than he did anywhere else?
• Circle: vs. Alabama, Dec. 8, in the Jimmy V Classic. Florida is a possible opponent in Las Vegas on Nov. 18.

3. Kansas — 16%

• Strength: Tyran Stokes, a 6-8 wing who is CBS’s pick for both Big 12 Player and Freshman of the Year. No freshman has won the league’s top award since Cade Cunningham in 2021.
• Weakness: Recent history. Kansas has finished tied for fifth, sixth and tied for third in the last three seasons and has not reached a Sweet 16 since the 2022 title.
• The question: Bill Self is 63, was hospitalized with AFib last season and considered retiring in the spring. Is this the last one?
• Circle: vs. Kentucky, Nov. 10, in Chicago. At UConn on Dec. 12.

4. Texas Tech — 11%

• Strength: JT Toppin, when he plays. He was the 2025 Big 12 Player of the Year and was better last season.
• Weakness: Availability, in every sense. Toppin’s knee, and the eligibility of Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams and Jamichael Stillwell.
• The question: Texas Tech has never won an outright Big 12 regular-season title. With everyone available, this is the roster that could.
• Circle: vs. Illinois, Nov. 10, in Lubbock. Duke at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 21.

5. Iowa State — 11%

• Strength: Defense at all three levels, ranked fifth by Torvik. Tamin Lipsey has started 137 games and won an NCAA Tournament game every year, if a court clears him for a fifth.
• Weakness: Offense, ranked 54th. Milan Momcilovic left for a reported $6 million at Kentucky, and Killyan Toure has an offseason shoulder injury.
• The question: T.J. Otzelberger has never missed the tournament in Ames. Who scores?
• Circle: vs. Purdue, Dec. 6, in Ames.

6. BYU — 5%

• Strength: Rob Wright (18.1 points, 4.6 assists) nearly left for Kentucky and stayed. Kevin Young has produced top-12 offenses in both of his seasons.
• Weakness: Size, unless Michigan State transfer Jaxon Kohler gets a fifth year.
• The question: Is Bruce Branch III, the No. 6 recruit, BYU’s third straight lottery pick?
• Circle: vs. Ohio State, Nov. 2, in Salt Lake City. Kansas visits Provo on Jan. 9.

The other 10% belongs to Baylor, Cincinnati, TCU and West Virginia.

The ACC

Overview. Eighteen teams. The league sent four to the tournament in 2025 and eight in 2026, and ESPN’s first bracket has seven in the 76-team field. All five CBS panelists picked Duke first.

Behind Duke is the most interesting second tier in the country. Virginia, Louisville and Miami are all in Torvik’s top 20, and each was picked second by at least one CBS voter. Five programs have new head coaches: North Carolina (Michael Malone), NC State (Justin Gainey), Syracuse (Gerry McNamara), Boston College (Luke Murray) and Georgia Tech (Scott Cross).

The market. DraftKings has Duke at -128, about a 47% chance with the margin removed. It then disagrees with us: Louisville is second at +400, with Miami (+660) just ahead of Virginia (+680). We have Virginia second on Torvik’s numbers and the returning core.

1. Duke — ACC title odds: 47%

• Strength: Depth. Patrick Ngongba II, Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer and Dame Sarr return, Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell (19.1 points) arrives, and the No. 2 recruiting class includes Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje and Cameron Williams. Duke can go ten deep.
• Weakness: There is no Cooper Flagg or Cameron Boozer to build the offense around.
• The question: Jon Scheyer has won 70 games in two years and lost both seasons on late collapses, to Houston in the 2025 Final Four and UConn in the 2026 Elite Eight. Does that follow him until he wins a title?
• Circle: vs. Illinois, Nov. 17, at Cameron. It comes a week after Michigan State, eight days before UConn in Las Vegas and two weeks before a trip to Florida.

2. Virginia — 15%

• Strength: Shooting at all five spots, and Thijs De Ridder, a 23-year-old former pro who averaged 15.6 points as a freshman.
• Weakness: The ceiling of a roster built on mid-major transfers.
• The question: Virginia finished second last year after being picked fifth. Was 30 wins the new level under Ryan Odom?
• Circle: at Maryland, Nov. 13, five days after Arkansas in Washington. Kentucky visits Dec. 2, and UConn is at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 20.

3. Louisville — 15%

• Strength: Flory Bidunga, the top-ranked player in the portal, with 145 blocks in 69 career games. Opposing guards talk about him differently.
• Weakness: Pat Kelsey has never coached a top-20 defense, and almost nobody on this roster played for him last year. Projected starter Seth Trimble is waiting on a fifth-year ruling.
• The question: Louisville has not reached the second weekend since 2015. A roster near $20 million has to.
• Circle: vs. Texas, Dec. 1. At Kentucky on Dec. 12.

4. Miami — 11%

• Strength: A physical frontcourt with Georgia transfer Somto Cyril, and wing Shelton Henderson, who averaged 13.8 points as a freshman.
• Weakness: Depth at guard. Michigan transfer L.J. Cason is not expected to play after an ACL tear.
• The question: Malik Reneau. With him, ESPN has Miami 11th. Without him, 14th.
• Circle: vs. Florida, Nov. 2, in Tampa. Alabama visits Dec. 2.

5. Clemson — 3%

• Strength: Brad Brownell’s baseline. Clemson has made four of the last six tournaments.
• Weakness: Four transfers are projected to start, and two rotation players are coming off knee injuries.
• The question: Does Dillon Hunter, who started 35 games last season, get a fifth year?
• Circle: vs. Auburn, Dec. 1.

6. Virginia Tech — 3%

• Strength: The top two scorers, Ben Hammond and Amani Hansberry, return from a 19-win team. Torvik ranks the Hokies 33rd. DraftKings has them sixth in the ACC at +2700.
• Weakness: Seven transfers to work in.
• The question: Is this the year Mike Young ends a tournament drought that dates to 2022?
• Circle: at West Virginia, Dec. 5.

On North Carolina outside the top six. CBS’s panel has the Tar Heels fifth. We don’t, for the reasons in the fade section: a first-time college head coach, a roster reported at $20 million with no settled center, and a Torvik ranking of 48th. If Sayon Keita is cleared and is what the scouts say, we’ll be wrong by Christmas.

The other 6% belongs to North Carolina, NC State and Florida State.

The Big East

Overview. Eleven teams and, for two years running, two programs. SB Nation’s Mike Rutherford put it best: the league went from the most competitive conference in the sport to the Dan Hurley vs. Rick Pitino show. ESPN’s bracket still finds seven Big East bids in a 76-team field, which says more about the field than the league.

All five CBS panelists picked UConn first and St. John’s second. St. John’s is the two-time defending regular-season and tournament champion, something no Big East school had done before. UConn is 126-28 over the last four seasons and 18-2 in the NCAA Tournament. Three programs have new coaches: Providence (Bryan Hodgson), Creighton (Alan Huss) and Butler (Ronald Nored).

The market. DraftKings sees close to a coin flip: UConn +152 and St. John’s +164, roughly 34% and 33% with the margin removed. Marquette is third at +700, just ahead of Villanova at +760.

1. UConn — Big East title odds: 38%

• Strength: The backcourt. Silas Demary Jr. averaged 5.9 assists and is the preseason Player of the Year. Braylon Mullins beat Duke at the buzzer in the Elite Eight.
• Weakness: Offense, relatively. Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. are gone, Solo Ball is redshirting, and Torvik ranks the offense 39th.
• The question: Can Dan Hurley win a third title in five years with seven transfers and three freshmen?
• Circle: vs. Duke, Nov. 25, in Las Vegas, an Elite Eight rematch. Also Michigan on Nov. 6, at Arizona on Nov. 18 and Illinois on Dec. 4.

2. St. John’s — 30%

• Strength: Wing talent. Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou (17.8 points) pulled out of the draft late, and Ian Jackson returns.
• Weakness: Four of the top five scorers left, Donnie Freeman is out for the season with an Achilles injury, and four players, more than 20% of the roster, are waiting on judges.
• The question: Which roster shows up? ESPN has the full version 10th and the stripped version 20th.
• Circle: vs. Arizona, Dec. 5, at Madison Square Garden.

3. Villanova — 11%

• Strength: Size. Kevin Willard added 7-4 Luigi Suigo, Oregon’s Kwame Evans Jr. and Ohio State’s Devin Royal to a team that returns leading scorer Tyler Perkins.
• Weakness: A defense that ranked 347th in block rate has to prove the fix on the floor.
• The question: Is Villanova the team that closes the gap to the top two?
• Circle: at Kansas, Nov. 27. Michigan visits Philadelphia on Nov. 21.

4. Marquette — 9%

• Strength: Nigel James Jr., the reigning Big East Freshman of the Year (16.4 points, 4.9 assists, 2.0 steals), and more than 60% of last year’s scoring.
• Weakness: That scoring came from a 12-20 team.
• The question: Shaka Smart finally used the portal. Torvik ranks Marquette 27th. CBS’s panel picked it fourth. Rutherford has it seventh and wants to see it first. Who’s right?
• Circle: at Michigan, Nov. 11. Virginia in the Bahamas on Nov. 25.

5. Creighton — 5%

• Strength: Retention. Jackson McAndrew, Jasen Green, Austin Swartz, Isaac Traudt and Hudson Greer return after combining for about 39 points per game. McAndrew barely played last season because of injury.
• Weakness: The Bluejays went 16-18, their first losing season in more than a decade. Providence transfer Oswin Erhunmwunse was brought in to fix the defense. Two more transfers, Brody Robinson and Fred King, are waiting on rulings.
• The question: Alan Huss left High Point with the promise of this job and waited one season for it. Is his first year better than Greg McDermott’s last?
• Circle: vs. Michigan, Nov. 24, in Las Vegas.

6. Providence — 4%

• Strength: Bryan Hodgson, who took South Florida to the tournament in his only season there, and Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Miles Byrd.
• Weakness: A mostly new roster around holdover Ryan Mela, with three more players, including former G Leaguer Dink Pate, waiting on eligibility.
• The question: Byrd shot 40% from the field and Malik Mack shot 38% last season. Does Hodgson’s system fix that?
• Circle: vs. Nebraska, Nov. 7, at Mohegan Sun.

The other 3% belongs to Xavier and Georgetown.

The Best Of The Rest

Overview. Realignment broke up the Mountain West and rebuilt the Pac-12 around Gonzaga. The result is one clear best league outside the top five and a lot of one-bid anxiety everywhere else, even with eight more spots in the field.

The mid-major to know outside those leagues is High Point, which Torvik projects at 28-4 and 15-1 in the Big South.

The structural note is the one CBS made: the best programs from the Mountain and Pacific time zones are now split across two leagues because football money required it. A merged basketball conference would have been a real sixth power. Instead there are two good ones.

Maryland: Year Two Of Buzz Williams

The projection. We have Maryland at 21-11 and 11-9 in the Big Ten, a 9 or 10 seed. That is more optimistic than the field. Torvik projects 18-12 and 10-10 and ranks the Terps 38th. KenPom is lower still: 53rd overall, 49th on offense and 56th on defense, which puts Maryland 13th in the Big Ten. The Big Ten media picked them 12th and CBS’s panel picked them 11th. ESPN’s bracket has them as the second team out of a 76-team field. FanDuel lists the Terps at 100-to-1 to win the title, the same price as Ohio State, Iowa and Villanova. DraftKings has them 10th in the Big Ten title market at +3800.

Our full breakdown is here: Maryland Basketball 2026-27: Year Two of Buzz Williams. The short version follows.

• Strength: The frontcourt and the glass. Pharrel Payne, a preseason All-Big Ten pick, is in his third season with Williams. New Mexico transfer Tomislav Buljan was the only Mountain West player to average a double-double and set a school record with 141 offensive rebounds.
• Also a strength: Ball security. DJ Wagner had 85 assists to 23 turnovers last season and Tennessee transfer Bishop Boswell had 106 to 53. Last year Maryland played shooting guards at the point.
• Weakness: Shooting, and health. Mike McNair Jr. (44.4% from three, fifth nationally) and Maban Jabriel (44.0%) are the proven shooters. Payne played 10 games last season and Robert Jennings II played three.
• The question: Does the defense match the reputation? Williams was hired for it and finished 125th. Against top-50 opponents Maryland allowed 1.27 points per possession, last in Division I. Five of the additions were brought in specifically to defend.
• The freshman: Baba Oladotun of Silver Spring, 6-10 and No. 10 nationally, is the second-highest-rated signee in program history behind Diamond Stone. This may be his only season in College Park.
• Circle: Virginia at home on Nov. 13 and Tennessee in Las Vegas on Nov. 24. Both are in our top 11. Then South Carolina at CFG Bank Arena in Baltimore on Dec. 19.

The bar. Unlike much of the league, Maryland has nobody waiting on an eligibility ruling. After a 12-21 first season, and with a roster reported north of $14 million, missing a 76-team field would be close to disqualifying. The season likely turns on five road games against teams projected below Maryland: at Iowa (Jan. 9), Penn State (Jan. 30), Oregon (Feb. 17), Washington (Feb. 20) and Rutgers (Feb. 28). KenPom has Iowa (43rd) ahead of Maryland, so by that model the list is four games, not five.

Around the state. Torvik’s preseason ranks for the rest of the local Division I programs, out of 365: Towson 179, UMBC 261, Mount St. Mary’s 292, Navy 306, Loyola 337, Coppin State 356, Morgan State 361, Maryland Eastern Shore 365. Towson is projected 17-14 and UMBC 17-14. Several local players moved up this offseason: Towson’s Tyler Tejada (17.7 points) to Cincinnati, Loyola’s Jacob Theodosiou (13.1) to Duke, Mount St. Mary’s Luke McEldon (11.7) to Northwestern and UMES’s Justin Monden to Indiana.

National Unit Rankings

Top 8 Backcourts

1. UConn — Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins could both be preseason All-Americans. Demary is also one of the best perimeter defenders in the country.
2. Duke — The deepest point guard room in the sport: John Blackwell, Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer and five-star freshman Deron Rippey Jr.
3. Michigan State — Jeremy Fears Jr. is a Player of the Year favorite, and freshmen Jasiah Jervis and Carlos Medlock Jr. give Tom Izzo scoring he hasn’t had.
4. Alabama — Aden Holloway shot 44% from three, and Amari Allen is a projected first-round pick.
5. Vanderbilt — Tyler Tanner is on CBS’s preseason All-America first team, and Ace Glass averaged 16.4 points at Washington State.
6. Michigan — Elliot Cadeau ran a title team, and Trey McKenney is a second-team All-America pick at CBS as a sophomore.
7. BYU — Rob Wright, Collin Chandler (41% from three) and Bruce Branch III. The whole offense is built around Wright’s pick-and-roll game.
8. USC — Rodney Rice, KJ Lewis and Alijah Arenas, if they share.

Just missed: Florida (Boogie Fland and, pending the courts, Denzel Aberdeen), Arkansas, Louisville, Texas A&M (PJ Haggerty averaged 23.4 points at Kansas State), New Mexico.

Top 8 Frontcourts

1. Florida — Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu. ESPN calls it the best frontcourt in the country, and all three have a title ring.
2. Illinois — David Mirkovic and the Ivisic brothers. No frontcourt shoots more threes.
3. Arizona — Motiejus Krivas may be the best center in the country. Add RJ Godfrey if he is cleared.
4. Gonzaga — Braden Huff averaged 17.8 points, and 7-1 Massamba Diop was one of the best young bigs in the Big 12 at Arizona State.
5. Duke — Patrick Ngongba II plus two of the best freshman bigs in the sport, Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje and Cameron Williams.
6. Texas — David Punch and Matas Vokietaitis will live at the free throw line.
7. Louisville — Flory Bidunga had 82 dunks last season and can guard all five positions.
8. Houston — Joseph Tugler and Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie, who averaged 17.7 points.

Just missed: Texas Tech (JT Toppin alone, once healthy), Virginia, Indiana, Maryland (Pharrel Payne and Tomislav Buljan), LSU.

Top 10 Coaching Staffs

Head coach plus roster construction, which in 2026 is half the job.

1. UConn. Dan Hurley has played in three national title games in four years. He lost his top assistant, Luke Murray, to Boston College and rebuilt the roster with seven transfers anyway.

2. Houston. Kelvin Sampson has seven straight Sweet 16s and five straight 30-win seasons. He lost four NBA players and Torvik still has the Cougars fifth. That is a system.

3. Florida. Todd Golden won the 2025 title and then did the harder thing: he kept the team together. Six of the top seven scorers returning is a retention result no other contender matched.

4. Michigan State. Tom Izzo has the Big Ten’s best player, a top-10 recruiting class and five of his top eight scorers back. He needed a center and found one in the portal.

5. Duke. Jon Scheyer has won 70 games in two seasons, a program record, and signed the No. 2 class. The late-game losses are the only thing keeping him out of the top three.

6. Arizona. Tommy Lloyd reached the Final Four, turned down North Carolina, lost three of his top five scorers and is still everyone’s Big 12 pick.

7. Alabama. CBS calls Nate Oats the best offensive coach in the country. The numbers back it: top four in adjusted offense every year since 2023.

8. Kansas. Bill Self lost most of a roster to the draft and portal and still landed the No. 1 recruit. The last three seasons are why he is eighth and not second.

9. St. John’s. Rick Pitino had three players drafted in June and replaced four of his top five scorers with a group that could be top ten if the courts cooperate.

10. Iowa State. T.J. Otzelberger has made the tournament every year, and he keeps doing it with defense after losing his best scorer to a bigger budget.

Just missed: Tennessee (Rick Barnes), Arkansas (John Calipari), Gonzaga (Mark Few, in year 28), Iowa (Ben McCollum), Virginia (Ryan Odom), BYU (Kevin Young), Illinois (Brad Underwood) and Arizona State, where roughly 100 coaches surveyed by CBS named Randy Bennett the best high-major hire of the cycle.

The Individual Awards

Top 5 Player Of The Year Candidates

1. Thomas Haugh, F, Florida. The best player on the best team. He averaged 17.1 points, surprised the sport by passing on the draft, and plays next to two other frontcourt starters who draw attention. ESPN frames the preseason race as Haugh against Fears. We lean Haugh because Florida should win more.

2. Jeremy Fears Jr., G, Michigan State. The Big Ten’s preseason Player of the Year and the top senior on Andy Katz’s list. He led the country with 9.4 assists per game and runs everything for a top-six team. No Big Ten player has ever averaged 10 in a season. If Michigan State wins the Big Ten, he probably wins this.

3. Tyler Tanner, G, Vanderbilt. He averaged 19.5 points, 5.1 assists and 2.4 steals and led Vanderbilt to a 16-0 start. The numbers will be there. The question is whether a team projected 10-8 in the SEC wins enough.

4. Tyran Stokes, F, Kansas. The No. 1 recruit, the projected No. 1 pick and CBS’s choice for Big 12 Player of the Year as a freshman. Kansas needs a star season from him to contend.

5. David Mirkovic, F, Illinois. A sophomore forward who can pass, dribble and shoot, at the center of the best projected offense in the country. ESPN expects an All-America season once he is back from offseason foot surgery.

Best case nobody is making: JT Toppin, who averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds before his injury and would be on every list if his knee had a date attached. Longshots: Rob Wright (BYU), Braylon Mullins (UConn), Flory Bidunga (Louisville), Thijs De Ridder (Virginia). Dick Vitale’s first team and CBS’s first team are the same five: Fears, Haugh, Tanner, Bidunga and Wright.

Top 8 Freshmen

1. Tyran Stokes, Kansas — No. 1 in the class. Kansas has had two No. 1 overall picks; he could be the third.
2. Jordan Smith Jr., Arkansas — No. 2 in the class and Katz’s most impactful freshman. A two-way point guard replacing Darius Acuff Jr.
3. Caleb Holt, Arizona — No. 3 in the class, with an 81-inch wingspan, starting for a title contender.
4. Jason Crowe Jr., Missouri — ESPN’s pick to be the most productive freshman in the country.
5. Bruce Branch III, BYU — No. 6 in the class, a 6-7 shooter in an offense built for shooters.
6. Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, Duke — From FC Barcelona. Not eligible for the 2027 draft, so Duke has him for two seasons.
7. Nikola Kusturica, UCLA — Also from FC Barcelona, also two years away from the draft. He averaged 24.6 points at the FIBA U17 World Cup, and CBS picked him Big Ten Freshman of the Year.
8. Marcus Spears Jr., Texas — Was the No. 1 recruit in the 2027 class before reclassifying. He is 6-10 with a 7-2 wingspan.

Next: Cameron Williams (Duke), Anthony Thompson (Ohio State), Christian Collins (USC), Baba Oladotun (Maryland), Dylan Mingo (Baylor), Miles Sadler (West Virginia).

Top 8 Transfers

More than 2,700 players entered the portal in the richest cycle the sport has seen.

1. Flory Bidunga, Louisville (from Kansas) — The top-ranked player in the portal. He averaged 13.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks on 64% shooting.
2. Milan Momcilovic, Kentucky (from Iowa State) — Led the country with 136 made threes.
3. John Blackwell, Duke (from Wisconsin) — Averaged 19.1 points and tops Katz’s transfer list.
4. Juke Harris, Tennessee (from Wake Forest) — Averaged 21.4 points, with seven games of 28 or more.
5. Tounde Yessoufou, St. John’s (from Baylor) — Averaged 17.8 points as a freshman and withdrew from the draft at the last minute.
6. PJ Haggerty, Texas A&M (from Kansas State) — Has scored in double figures in 94 of his last 96 games.
7. David Punch, Texas (from TCU) — A 6-7, 245-pound forward who can guard every position.
8. Massamba Diop, Gonzaga (from Arizona State) — A 7-1 center with a face-up game, now playing for Mark Few.

Next: Stefan Vaaks (Illinois), Paulius Murauskas (Arizona State), Acaden Lewis (Miami), Miles Byrd (Providence), Matt Able (North Carolina).

Quick Hits

• Most continuity among contenders: Florida, with 78.8% of last year’s minutes back per Torvik. Least: Cincinnati at 0.0% under first-year coach Jerrod Calhoun, and Torvik still ranks the Bearcats 36th.
• First game: Notre Dame vs. Villanova in Rome on Nov. 1, with a 9:30 a.m. ET tip. Opening night proper is Nov. 2: Florida-Miami in Tampa, Arizona-UCLA and Gonzaga-Purdue in Las Vegas, and BYU-Ohio State in Salt Lake City.
• New coaches: More than 50 across Division I. Roughly 100 coaches polled by CBS named Randy Bennett at Arizona State the best high-major hire.
• Boomerangs: Darrion Williams is back at Texas Tech after a year at NC State. Dior Johnson is back at UCF after averaging 24.0 points at Tarleton State, second nationally to AJ Dybantsa.
• Oldest roster bet: Auburn, where every transfer is in at least his fourth college season.
• Hottest seats: Mark Pope (Kentucky), Jeff Capel (Pitt), Micah Shrewsberry (Notre Dame), Porter Moser (Oklahoma), Ed Cooley (Georgetown).
• Droughts on the line: Texas has not made a Final Four in 24 years. Vanderbilt has not reached the second weekend since 2007. Louisville has not since 2015. Tennessee has never made a Final Four. Boston College has not made the tournament since 2009.
• Our Final Four: Florida, Duke, Illinois, Arizona. It is chalk, and in a year this unsettled we think chalk is the contrarian pick.

Five Biggest Storylines Entering The Season

1. Who is allowed to play? The five-for-five rule passed in June without covering last year’s seniors. Hundreds sued. Some have injunctions and some are still waiting, a few weeks before the first game. Coaches who built rosters assuming those players were finished are furious, and coaches who left spots open for them look smart. The first time a temporary injunction is reversed in January, a ranked team loses a starter mid-season. Expect it.

2. The field is 76. Eight more teams, almost all of them from the middle of the major conferences. ESPN’s first projection gives the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten 34 bids combined. The Atlantic 10 is the only other league with more than one. Expansion was sold as access. The early math says it is a subsidy for 9-9.

3. Michigan without Dusty May. No champion has lost its coach this way since 1988. Mike Boynton kept the roster, and Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney are a real backcourt. But the best frontcourt in the country is in the NBA and the top freshman tore his ACL. If Michigan finishes top three in the Big Ten, Boynton keeps the job. If not, this is a one-year bridge.

4. The SEC’s money. The league sent a record 14 teams to the 2025 tournament, slipped to 10 last year, and has spent its way forward again: 10 top-30 scorers retained, 11 more imported, and roster budgets from $8 million to more than $20 million. Twelve bids in the first bracket is the result.

5. Four coaches and one question each. Does Jon Scheyer close? Does Pat Kelsey’s spending produce a second weekend? Does Mark Pope survive year three? Is this Bill Self’s last team? All four have rosters good enough to answer yes. Not all four will.

Two Rankings

Everything above is downstream of one fact, so we’ll end where we started.

ESPN ranked every team twice because it had to. A preseason poll is supposed to be a guess about how good teams are. This year it is first a guess about who is on them. Texas Tech’s range is ninth to unranked. Gonzaga’s is eight spots. Arizona’s title case is one forward’s paperwork.

It is why our Final Four percentages add up to less than three of the four spots. It is why the models and the polls disagree by ten places or more on Houston and Texas. It is why the defending champion is 10th in Torvik, 22nd at ESPN and 28th at KenPom.

And it is why the teams at the very top look the way they do. Florida is No. 1 because it is the one contender that mostly knows who it is. Six of the top seven scorers back. One open question, and a capable answer either way. Duke, Illinois and Michigan State are right behind for the same reason. In a sport where a roster is a one-year lease, the teams that renewed are the favorites.

The bracket got bigger this year. The list of teams that can actually win it got smaller.

The post 2026-27 College Basketball Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Cleveland lost 17-12 to the Jets in the rain, so Baltimore is alone in first place in the AFC North. Cincinnati won 31-24 in Miami and Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis 34-22, which leaves the other three teams at 3-2.

You win a game in the NFL, you feel good.

You win a game in the NFL with your backup QB, on the road; that feels like a bonus.

It was a rough night for Mark Andrews, and the Ravens Defense continues to be too passive.

Still, the ultimate story is being able to leave Atlanta with a win.

What Happened

Baltimore opened with 62 yards in 10 plays and had first-and-goal at the 8. Henry ran 7 yards to the 1, lost 2 on a direct snap, and Huntley threw incomplete to Mark Andrews on third down. Tyler Loop kicked a 21-yard field goal.

Two possessions later Andrews caught a 9-yard pass, Sydney Brown knocked the ball loose, and Jessie Bates III returned it 36 yards for a touchdown. Michael Penix Jr. was 0 for 4 on Atlanta’s first three possessions, per AP, and the Falcons punted on all three.

Loop hit from 51 to make it 7-6. Atlanta then went 78 yards in nine plays, with Penix 5 for 5: Drake London for 25 on third-and-3, Jahan Dotson for 36 on third-and-6, and Kyle Pitts for the 5-yard touchdown on third-and-goal. Loop’s second 51-yarder ended the half at 14-9, after a Bateman false start had pushed the kick back 5 yards.

Atlanta received the second-half kickoff. Bijan Robinson ran 38 yards to the 3, and the defense held from there: Robinson lost 2, Penix threw incomplete to left tackle Jake Matthews, who had reported eligible in his 200th straight start, and then to Dotson. Folk kicked from 23.

Baltimore answered in five plays. Justice Hill ran 47 yards on third-and-1, and Huntley found Henry for an 18-yard touchdown. The two-point pass to Andrews was incomplete, and it was 17-15. Atlanta went for it on fourth-and-2 at the Baltimore 39 and Penix’s throw to Woerner fell incomplete.

The fourth quarter belonged to Atlanta until the last two minutes. The Falcons held the ball for 8:23 on a 16-play drive that spanned the quarter break, kicked a field goal, forced a three-and-out, and kicked another from 48 with 2:31 left to lead 23-15.

The tying drive started badly. Emery Jones Jr.’s hold made it first-and-20 from the 19, then Xavier Watts was called for interference on a deep ball to Zay Flowers, a 29-yard penalty. Huntley went short from there: Bateman for 11, Flowers for 4, Bateman for 7, Andrews for 3, and Bateman for 20 to the 7. Walker caught the touchdown on the next play. Henry ran around left end for the two points.

Atlanta got one more chance. Penix hit Dotson for 18, then Tavius Robinson sacked him and forced a fumble that Atlanta recovered. Penix was hurt on the play, Tagovailoa came in for one snap, and the Falcons punted with 8 seconds left.

Baltimore received in overtime and drove 68 yards in 14 plays, using 7:03. Andrews converted a third-and-3, Flowers a third-and-6, and Henry ran for 11 and 7. Huntley scored on second-and-goal from the 1. Atlanta still got a possession. Tagovailoa hit London for 20, and Hamilton intercepted the next throw at the Baltimore 40.

Without Jackson

Last week I wrote that if Jackson couldn’t go, the plan should start with feeding Henry and look for quick throws to the weapons. That’s the game Declan Doyle called.

Baltimore ran 35 times for 208 yards. Henry had 24 carries for 102, and Hill had 73 on four carries, including 21 on third-and-3 and 47 on third-and-1. Huntley completed 24 of 32 for 201 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. His longest completion went 20 yards, and he averaged 8.4 yards per completion.

The third-down number is the change from last week. The offense converted 8 of 15, after going 2 of 10 against Tennessee and 1 of 6 with Huntley in the second half.

The extra lineman showed up five times: Vinson reported as eligible four times and Edoga once. Henry had four carries for 23 yards with Vinson in. In last week’s Takeaways I asked for additional blockers and larger sets.

Henry’s carries came in two bunches. He ran 9 times for 49 yards in the first quarter, 8 times for 21 over the next three, and 7 times for 32 in overtime. Between his touchdown catch late in the third quarter and the tying drive, the offense had two possessions, six plays and 5 yards, while Atlanta held the ball for more than 15 of those 19 minutes.

Huntley was sacked three times, by Ivey, Kendal Daniels and Ebukam, and Flowers went down once on a throw of his own. Daniels, the rookie linebacker we flagged last week, was also in on four Henry tackles.

Flowers caught 8 of 9 targets for 53 yards and ran once for 13. His longest play didn’t count in his line: Baltimore took the 29-yard interference penalty on the tying drive over his 26-yard catch, as Bill Barnwell pointed out.

“There’s not a locker room in the NFL that has more confidence in their backup quarterback than we have in Snoop,” Jesse Minter said after the game.

On our board, everytime Huntley starts a game there is lots of consternation about his limitations.  It’s understood there is no arm strength, and that certainly is an issue.
But I think you have to appreciate him for what he provides.  If Jackson was down for any length of time, the Ravens wouldn’t be able to get past that. Huntley certainly wouldn’t hold-up as a starter week-in, week-out.
But to come in for a Week or two at a time, and give the team a chance, he’s proven he’s capable of that, and that has real value.  Atlanta did a lot blitzing late, and he handled that well.

OC Declan Doyle continues to impress. He’s had a strong five weeks to begin his Ravens career.  Loved him going right at backup corner Mike Ford as soon as he came in.

TE Josh Cuevas had 2 grabs for 26 yards. As we get into the middle part of this season, it feels like he and fellow Rookie Matthew Hibner are going to have to be increasingly involved.

Going back to Flowers, he’s been terrific this season. Despite missing the Week 2 game vs. the Saints, he’s on pace for 88 catches and nearly 1,400 yards. He’s averaging 15.6 yards per catch.
Most importantly he’s electric with every touch. I said before the season I didn’t view him as a true #1.  I guess my thinking was I appreciated him as a playmaker, was glad he had extended; but felt he was more ideally suited as an elite 2nd WR on a championship team. I did say you could win with him as your best WR, and that was all that matters – but overall my take was bad. How many WR’s would you take over him at this point? There are probably 5-7 guys you would prefer if you could have one vs. the other, but beyond that group he compares favorably vs. anyone else. He’d be further helped if Jakobi Lane can get healthy, and give defenses something else to pay some attention to opposite of him.

Short Yardage & The Rushing Offense In General

Last week we said short yardage had improved, with Henry converting five of seven carries with 1 or 2 yards to go. This week he converted one of four, and the quarterback did the work.

Both direct snaps to Henry came on the first two drives, and both failed. The first came at the 1, and that drive ended in a field goal.

The tying two-point run worked. The play-by-play lists it only as Henry around left end. AP says he took a direct snap, and @devpanchwagh describes an offset Wildcat with Flowers next to Henry and rookie tight end Matt Hibner in front, with the fake to Flowers slowing the defense on Henry’s side.

Huntley went 3 for 3 on his own carries with 1 to go, including the overtime touchdown.

Going beyond the short-yardage rushing, the ground attack had a strong night.

208 rushing yard for the Ravens against a Falcons defense which had been stingy against opposing rushers so far this year. Atlanta was 6th overall in run stop win rate entering the weekend, and led the NFL in run defense.

Henry finished with 102 yards on 24 carries, and Justice Hill had 73 on his 4 attempts – including the long of 47.

Penalties

Baltimore was flagged five times for 40 yards, a week after 13 for 131. The defense had none accepted, after six for 90 against Tennessee.

• Offense: Ronnie Stanley’s hold on an incompletion late in the first half, Bateman’s false start before the halftime kick, Jones’ hold on the first snap of the tying drive, and a delay of game before a punt.
• Special teams: Trenton Simpson’s hold on a kickoff return.

Atlanta was flagged seven times for 67 yards. Watts’ 29-yard interference call was the biggest, on the tying drive, and it gave Baltimore its only first down by penalty.

The Defense

Atlanta scored one offensive touchdown and none after halftime. Its other 16 points came on Bates’ fumble return and three field goals. The Falcons were 1 of 3 in the red zone, the defense had three sacks, and Hamilton’s interception ended the game.

Third down is where it went wrong. Atlanta converted 9 of 17, and all four of its third downs needing 10 yards or more.

London caught seven passes for 118 yards on 11 targets. Five of those catches converted third downs, for 86 yards, and four came on the 16-play drive that took 8:23 at the end of the third quarter and start of the fourth. The play-by-play shows who made the tackle on those catches, not who was in coverage.

“I don’t think we played good, for real. The third down stuff was crazy,” Hamilton said, per Jeff Zrebiec. Minter blamed himself for some of the third-down problems.

Robinson ran 17 times for 86 yards. Two runs, of 20 and 38 yards, account for 58 of them; his other 15 carries gained 28. The 38-yarder put Atlanta at the 3, and the Falcons kicked a field goal.

The three sacks came after one in each of the previous two games, again without Trey Hendrickson. Mike Green had one in the second quarter, Trenton Simpson one in the third, and Tavius Robinson the strip-sack that hurt Penix with 27 seconds left. On Penix’s last throw of regulation, Green beat Matthews and forced the throwaway, per @ColeJacksonFB.

Marlon Humphrey played after returning to practice Friday, and the play-by-play credits him on the fourth-and-2 incompletion that gave Baltimore the ball in the third quarter.

Minter was questioned repeatedly for not bringing more pressure and for playing big, soft zones.

Anytime the Ravens had pressure, Penix looked uncomfortable.
Anytime he had time to throw, there were easy completions to be made.

Was good to see Green active. T. Robinson continues to make plays.
Nnamdi Madubuike had a QB hit, as did Travis Jones; but I thought it was a quiet night for Jones.

Malaki Starks was credited with 6 solo tackles, and 2 tackles for loss.

Roquan Smith had 5 tackles, but you didn’t feel him making an impact.

Hamilton bails the Ravens out repeatedly.
He needs a couple of his teammates to show up a bit more consistently around him.

I feel Minter could help with that, but installing a more aggressive mindset for the Ravens Defense.
This is my own bias showing, but I feel defensive players are generally more effective when their movements are instinctual vs. reactionary.
Go to the ball. Hit someone.

There is too much talent (and percentage of the Ravens salary cap) on the defensive side to not ask for more.
It’s only been a few weeks overall. Maybe that improves naturally with increasing continuity.

Last Week’s Things To Watch

We listed six. Here’s how each came out.

1. Jackson’s ankle. He didn’t practice and was ruled out Friday. Huntley started.
2. Humphrey’s calf, and who covers London. Humphrey played. London had 118 yards.
3. Right guard. Andrew Vorhees was inactive, and Jones made his first career start. His hold came on the tying drive.
4. Robinson on early downs. Fourteen first-down carries for 84 yards, but 26 yards on the 12 that weren’t his two long runs.
5. Penalties. Five for 40.
6. Finishing. This time Baltimore scored with 40 seconds left. The defense then stopped Atlanta’s last drive of regulation and its overtime possession, after allowing two fourth-quarter field-goal drives.

Takeaways

Huntley. 24 of 32, two touchdown passes, no interceptions, and the winning score himself. He moved the chains on third down and threw short all night, which is what the game plan asked of him.

Bateman. Six targets, five catches, 62 yards. Three of the catches came on the tying drive, for 38 yards.

Loop. Three of three on field goals, two from 51, a week after the miss from 40.

Hamilton. The interception to end it, in the city where he grew up.

Andrews. Not a good night. Dropped a TD, had the fumble that led to Atlanta’s first score, dropped the 2 point conversion. For his career he’s averaged 12.1 yards per catch. That dropped to 8.8 last year. It’s 8.0 this year through 5 games. He’s had 30 targets through these 5 games. He’s going to be out there plenty, but feel like the rookie TE’s are going to start eating into the targets. Likely followed Harbaugh to the Giants because he wanted to be the guy. The Ravens extended Andrews last year because they couldn’t get Likely to lock in. It feels like the Ravens should have told Likely he’s was going to be the lead option at TE.

Minter.  It ended well enough, but I was surprised the Ravens elected to receive in OT.  I’d like to hear more about that decision. Presumably the intent was to keep a tired Falcons defense on the field. Atlanta certainly looked tired of tackling Henry at that point. One reason it surprised me was that even if the Ravens scored as they did, the Falcons would have their opportunity to score, knowing they had 4 downs to play with every series. Hamilton’s quick interception ended things. Was great to see the Ravens dominate the ball, and impose their will there on that OT drive.

Week 6: At Cleveland

The Ravens play the Browns next Sunday, Oct. 18th, at 1 p.m. ET on FOX at Huntington Bank Field. DraftKings has Baltimore as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 40.5. ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor gives the Ravens a 65.8% chance to win.

The Ravens vs. their former Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken.

Cleveland hired Monken after his three seasons running Baltimore’s offense. It’s his first NFL Head Coaching job, and his second stint in Cleveland after a year as offensive coordinator in 2019. He replaced Kevin Stefanski, whom we saw last night in Atlanta.

Monken brought a Raven with him. His Offensive Coordinator is Travis Switzer, who spent nine seasons in Baltimore and was its run game coordinator. The defensive coordinator is Mike Rutenberg; Baltimore native Jim Schwartz resigned after being passed over for the head job.

How Cleveland got to 3-2

The three wins came by four, three and three points, and Cleveland has been outscored 112-93. At 3-1 the Browns were still 19th in our rankings and 24th in DVOA. Watson won the job over Shedeur Sanders in camp and is starting for the first time since tearing his Achilles twice.

The Browns are 3-2 after losing 17-12 to the Jets in a steady rain. Watson was sacked eight times, three by rookie David Bailey.

Cleveland led late. Watson’s 29-yard touchdown to rookie Denzel Boston made it 12-10 with 6:15 left, though Andre Szmyt hit the upright on the extra point. Carson Schwesinger then forced a fumble that Adin Huntington recovered. The Browns went three-and-out, a high snap got past punter Corey Bojorquez, and Braelon Allen scored from 22 yards three plays after the Jets recovered.

When Cleveland has the ball

The Browns came out of the game hurt. Rookie first-round receiver KC Concepcion was knocked out by a Minkah Fitzpatrick hit on his second drive, and Monken assumed he was in the concussion protocol. Running back Raheim Sanders (hip) and right tackle Tytus Howard (knee) left in the fourth quarter.

The line was young before the injuries. Cleveland started two rookies in Week 1, first-round pick Spencer Fano at left tackle and third-round pick Austin Barber at right guard, with Teven Jenkins out with a back injury, per Newsweek. Jenkins and center Parker Brailsford were both inactive in New York.

The run game hasn’t carried them. Quinshon Judkins had 33 yards on 12 carries in Jacksonville and 21 on 12 in Tampa. Watson led the team in rushing in Week 1 and ran 11 times for 45 yards against Carolina. In New York he had a 20-yard scramble and an 11-yard run, per Dawgs By Nature.

Watson’s biggest throws have gone to rookies and tight ends. Boston has touchdowns of 55 yards in Tampa and 29 against the Jets. Fannin caught both touchdowns against Carolina, including the winner. Concepcion was the 24th pick out of Texas A&M, and in camp the Akron Beacon Journal’s Chris Easterling compared Monken’s plans for him to how he used Flowers in Baltimore, per TheOBR. If Concepcion can’t go, Watson’s targets are Boston, Isaiah Bond, Jerry Jeudy and Fannin.

In Atlanta, Baltimore allowed four third-down conversions needing 10 yards or more.

When Baltimore has the ball

Cleveland’s pass rush is the concern. In Week 4 the Browns sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and hit him 10 times, using five-man pressure with man coverage, as Mike McCarthy described it. In New York, Quincy Williams forced three fumbles, and Maliek Collins, Huntington, Sam Kamara and Schwesinger all got to Geno Smith, per Dawgs By Nature.

It’s a different front from the one Baltimore saw last year. Cleveland traded Myles Garrett to the Rams for edge rusher Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 second and a 2029 third. Garrett had a record 23 sacks last season. Verse made the Pro Bowl in each of his first two seasons with the Rams.

Mason Graham led the Browns with four sacks, six tackles for loss and five quarterback hits through three games, then sprained his MCL and ankle against Pittsburgh. The team calls him week to week, per Browns.com. He missed the Jets game, as did Mike Hall Jr., who sacked Rodgers in Week 4. Graham’s status for Sunday is open.

In the secondary, safety Ronnie Hickman ended the Carolina game with an interception and recovered a fumble in New York. Grant Delpit broke up a third-and-12 throw to Garrett Wilson.

Baltimore’s line allowed three sacks of Huntley in Atlanta. Cam Jurgens is expected to make his debut this week, per Ravens.com, after the trade from Philadelphia, if he clears the concussion protocol.

Things To Watch

1. Jackson’s ankle. The practice reports on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, and whether Huntley makes a second start.
2. Jurgens. Whether he clears the protocol, and who moves when he plays center. Ioane had a tough night snapping.
3. The protection. Cleveland’s pressure got to Rodgers 10 times in Week 4, and Huntley was sacked three times in Atlanta.
4. Third downs on defense. Atlanta converted 9 of 17. The Jets got to Watson repeatedly yesterday, you’d like to see the Ravens do the same.
5. Cleveland’s injury list. Graham, Howard and Concepcion.

The post Ravens Rally Past Atlanta In Overtime; Cleveland Is Next appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Quick Hits

We went 0-5 straight up. Every team we picked to win last week lost, and three of them were favored by at least 9.5 points.

Oklahoma 27, Texas 24. We had Texas first for four weeks and wrote each week that the case against the Longhorns was the offense. The offense finally cost them. Tate Sandell kicked a 47-yard field goal on the final play, and Oklahoma won a game in which it gained 238 yards and scored one offensive touchdown. The other two came on a blocked punt recovered in the end zone and Peyton Bowen’s 42-yard interception return. Arch Manning threw three touchdown passes and two interceptions, and the second one, with 19 seconds left, set up the winning kick. Texas converted three of 14 third downs. John Mateer, whom Oklahoma had talked about benching, completed 18 of 26 passes and hit Isaiah Sategna for 13 and 20 yards to get Sandell in range. It was Oklahoma’s first win over a No. 1 team since 2007. We said the Sooners would cover 9.5 points. We did not say they would win.

Georgia 20, Alabama 17. We ranked Georgia third and Alabama fourth and picked Alabama anyway, on the grounds that home field was worth more than the gap between them. The ranking was right and the pick was wrong. Dwight Phillips Jr. ran for 120 yards, Georgia ran for 206 as a team without Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens, and Gunner Stockton completed 18 of 22 passes for 249 yards, including 9 of 10 on third down. It was Kirby Smart’s first win in Tuscaloosa.

It came with an argument. Late in the fourth quarter, officials did not flag Georgia safety KJ Bolden on what looked like pass interference in the end zone. Bolden sacked Keelon Russell on the next play and Alabama punted. Georgia also recovered all five of its own fumbles. Russell was 16 of 30 for 185 yards, and Ryan Coleman-Williams left the game twice, the second time to be evaluated for a concussion. We called for 59 points and got 37.

UCLA 17, Oregon 15. The game had ten turnovers, and seven of them were Oregon’s. Dylan Raiola completed six passes for 43 yards with two interceptions before Dan Lanning went to Brock Thomas, whose 44-yard touchdown pass to Evan Stewart made it 17-15 with 2:16 left. Oregon got two tries at the two-point conversion because of a facemask penalty, and UCLA stopped Jordon Davison from half a yard out on the second. Wayne Knight ran for 103 yards and scored both UCLA touchdowns. The Bruins lost Nico Iamaleava to a lower leg injury before halftime and finished the game with Ty Dieffenbach. Bob Chesney is 5-0. We said for two weeks that we would move Oregon once we knew its quarterback. Now we know, and the Ducks are out of our twenty. Oregon has to run the table (including winning at Columbus) to make the CFP.

Kentucky 35, LSU 34, in overtime. For the second straight week Will Stein went for two and the win in overtime, and for the second straight week it worked, by the same score. Kenneth Minchey ran it in untouched. Adam Zouagui missed field goals of 42 and 26 yards in the last five minutes of regulation, then made a 33-yarder with 12 seconds left to force overtime. Kentucky played without six defensive regulars and still gained 401 yards on a defense that had been allowing 220.6 a game. We had Kentucky covering in our first draft last week and switched to LSU when SP+ came out. That was a mistake.

North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17. We left Pitt out of our twenty at 5-0 because Mason Heintschel was out for the season, and then we picked the Panthers to win by three. Holden Geriner was 27 of 44 for 219 yards with two interceptions in his first college start. Pitt took a 17-14 lead in the second half, and Billy Edwards Jr. answered with a 75-yard touchdown pass to Shamar Easter. It was Bill Belichick’s first win over a ranked opponent at North Carolina.

South Carolina 38, Florida 19. Last week we kept Florida two spots ahead of a Missouri team that had just beaten it by 28, and wrote that one more result like it would flip the order. LaNorris Sellers accounted for five touchdowns, four of them passing, and Dylan Stewart forced two fumbles in his return from a suspension. South Carolina had lost eight straight SEC games. Florida has lost its last two by a combined 47 points, played its second straight game without Vernell Brown III, and heard Jon Sumrall booed at home. The Gators are out of the ranking, and they go to Texas next.

Indiana 20, Nebraska 17. Nebraska led 17-6 early in the fourth quarter after Anthony Colandrea’s 39-yard touchdown run. Josh Hoover hit Nick Marsh for 75 yards on the next snap, then found him again for 44 on fourth-and-1. Marsh had six catches for 187 yards. Indiana ran for 65 yards, its season low, and trailed at halftime for the first time since last year’s Big Ten championship game. It has won 22 straight. Nebraska has lost 31 straight to ranked opponents.

Most of the rest of the ranked teams took care of business. Notre Dame beat Stanford 58-7, with freshman Jonaz Walton scoring on runs of 97 and 40 yards. Ohio State beat Maryland 45-16. Ole Miss won 52-17 at Vanderbilt. Missouri beat Texas A&M 27-6 behind 222 rushing yards from Jamal Roberts. Iowa won 41-24 at Washington on Friday, and USC won 31-23 at Penn State, which is 3-3 overall and 0-3 in the Big Ten. Utah beat Kansas 41-24. BYU beat Iowa State by 14 with 329 passing yards and 109 rushing yards from Bear Bachmeier. Tennessee turned it over three times and won by seven at Arkansas. Houston won 35-16 at Kansas State, and tight end Patrick Overmyer caught four touchdown passes, tying the FBS record for the position. Miami, Texas Tech and Mississippi State were off.

Power Rankings

Georgia moves up two, to No. 1. For five weeks the knock on Georgia was that it had not played anyone. It has now won on the road against the team we had fourth. FPI gives Georgia a 95.7 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, the highest in the country, and a 54.3 percent chance of winning the SEC. The 41-13 win over Oklahoma two weeks ago looks better today than it did on Friday. We would not go as far as some of the coverage, which has Georgia settling every question. It won by three, it recovered all five of its own fumbles, it got the benefit of the no-call, and ESPN notes it allowed six plays of 20 yards or more, its most in a game since 2024. SP+ moved Ohio State past Georgia into first after the game. We think Georgia is the best team in the country. The gap to Alabama is small.

Miami moves up two. The Hurricanes were off. They move because Texas and Alabama lost, and because nothing happened to change what we thought of them. ESPN notes that Miami is first in the country in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Pitt and Duke both lost on Saturday, which leaves Miami as the only unbeaten team in the ACC.

Notre Dame moves up two. The Irish won 58-7, and their win at North Carolina improved when the Tar Heels won at Pitt. FPI now rates Notre Dame first. We keep the Irish behind Miami because we moved Miami past them a week ago and neither has given us a reason to switch back. They play each other on November 7th. Saturday’s trip to BYU is Notre Dame’s hardest game so far.

Alabama drops one. A three-point loss to our new No. 1, with that no-call in it, does not cost much. Alabama falls behind Miami and Notre Dame, who are unbeaten, and stays ahead of Texas. The Tide lost to the best team in the country. Texas lost to a team that came in 2-2. Alabama’s 45-17 win at Kentucky also got better on Saturday night.

Texas drops five. Texas lost to an opponent that gained 238 yards. ESPN has the Longhorns at 5.4 yards a play and 3.7 yards a carry, both worse than 100th in the country. We do not drop them further because the wins over Ohio State and at Tennessee are still two of the best on anyone’s résumé.

Why Ohio State stays ahead of Texas. Texas beat Ohio State, and we have Texas four spots behind the Buckeyes. That needs explaining. The game was in Week 2, in Austin, and Texas won it by one point on a fourth-quarter comeback. That result says the two teams were about even five weeks ago. Since then Ohio State has won four straight, including 31-14 at an Iowa team that is now 5-1 and just recently won by 17 at Washington. Texas nearly lost at Tennessee and then lost in Dallas. The two losses are also not the same. Ohio State lost by one on the road to a team that is still in everyone’s top six. Texas lost on a neutral field to a team that came in 2-2, gained 238 yards and scored one offensive touchdown. FPI rates Ohio State third and Texas sixth, and SP+ has Ohio State first and Texas sixth. The polls and the committee break a tie between teams with the same record by looking at who won when they played. That is a fair way to compare résumés, and Texas has the two best wins between them, over Ohio State and at Tennessee. Even so, résumé SP+ has Ohio State eighth and Texas ninth. We are ranking who we think is the better team today, and we think that is Ohio State. If the Buckeyes lose in Bloomington on Saturday, this order changes.

UCLA enters at 11. The Bruins are 5-0 with three road wins over power-conference teams, and ESPN notes this was their first win at Autzen Stadium since 2004. We slot them behind the three Big 12 unbeatens because Oregon handed them seven turnovers and because Iamaleava’s status is unknown. The models split on the Bruins. FPI ranks them 36th. SP+ has them 18th, and seventh in its résumé ranking.

Kentucky enters at 16. The Wildcats are 5-1 with wins at Texas A&M, at South Carolina and over LSU, and the only loss is to Alabama. Two of those wins came by one point in overtime, which is why they are not higher. FPI has Kentucky 30th and SP+ has it 47th.

LSU drops ten. That is the biggest move of the week and one short of the largest drop we have made all year. LSU is 4-2, and CBS points out that its best wins are now Texas A&M, which is 3-3, and Clemson, which is 3-2. The Tigers have lost to Ole Miss and Kentucky, and both are ahead of them here. They stay in the twenty because both losses came on the road, by a combined nine points, and because FPI still rates them eighth and SP+ ninth. Mississippi State comes to Baton Rouge on Saturday.

Oregon and Florida leave the ranking. Oregon is 3-2 with losses to Oklahoma State and UCLA and has used three quarterbacks in five games. Florida is 4-2 and has been beaten by 28 and 19 in back-to-back weeks. Oregon is not finished affecting the race. FPI still rates the Ducks ninth and SP+ 12th, Dante Moore is still in concussion protocol and could return, and they go to Ohio State on November 7th. As we said above, Oregon would need to run the table to make the CFP.

Texas Tech, BYU and Utah each move up one as LSU falls past them. Utah stays one spot behind BYU until they play on November 7th. Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee and Iowa each move up two into the space Oregon and Florida left, and all four won. USC moves up one after winning at Penn State. Ohio State, Indiana, Mississippi State and Nebraska hold. Nebraska lost, but it lost by three to our No. 7 team after leading by 11 in the fourth quarter. Houston, Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, Arizona and Boise State, all with one loss, are the next group.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 6 AP poll has Georgia first, then Notre Dame, Miami, Texas, Ohio State, Indiana and Alabama. It moves UCLA from 21st to 11th, brings Kentucky in at 19 and has LSU hanging on at 25. It drops Oregon, Florida and Pitt. The real poll was not out at press time. Last week’s projection, which we used on the board, missed in a few places. The AP had Ohio State fifth and Alabama sixth, Texas Tech 11th, Florida 16th, Iowa 20th and UCLA 21st, and it left Kentucky out. It did rank Pitt, at 25.

ESPN’s committee projection goes Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Indiana, BYU, Ole Miss, UCLA, Utah and Kentucky, with Boise State taking Kentucky’s bracket spot as the top Group of Six team. CBS’s bowl projection seeds Miami, Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama in the top four and has Notre Dame, Indiana, Utah, Texas, UCLA, Ole Miss, Kentucky and Boise State behind them.

We differ in three places. Both the poll projection and the committee projection keep Texas ahead of Ohio State on the head-to-head, and we have it the other way, for the reasons given above. Neither bracket has Texas Tech in its twelve, and we have the Red Raiders eighth. They have not lost, and they do not play Utah or BYU. And both projections have Kentucky in their top twelve, while we have the Wildcats 16th.

FPI’s post-Week 6 run has Notre Dame first, then Georgia, Ohio State, Miami, Alabama, Texas and Indiana. That is our top seven in a slightly different order. It disagrees with us further down. It has LSU eighth and Oregon ninth, where we have LSU 18th and Oregon unranked. It has Nebraska 12th and Houston 18th. It has Iowa 23rd, Mississippi State 27th, Kentucky 30th and UCLA 36th. FPI is a rating of how good a team is likely to be from here. We give more weight than it does to the results a team already has, which is why UCLA and Kentucky are in our twenty and Oregon is not.

SP+’s October 11th run moved Ohio State past Georgia into first, with Notre Dame third, Miami fourth, Indiana fifth and Texas sixth. It has Utah seventh, ahead of Alabama, which fell two spots to eighth. It sides with FPI on LSU, which it has ninth, and on Oregon, which it has 12th. It moved Ole Miss up 19 spots to 16th and Oklahoma State up 20 to 22nd. It is closer to us than FPI is on UCLA, at 18th. It is further from us on Kentucky, at 47th. As it did a week ago, it has Nebraska, at 14th, well ahead of Iowa at 24th and Mississippi State at 28th, and we have Nebraska behind both. It also has Northwestern, which is 4-1, at 17th. Its résumé ranking goes Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Alabama, Indiana and Utah, then UCLA, Ohio State and Texas.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, and the Change column is against August. The week-over-week moves are bigger. LSU loses 24 points, which matches the largest cut we have made this season, and Texas loses 19. LSU has two losses with Mississippi State, Alabama and Texas still to come, and CBS and ESPN both describe the rest of its season as a series of elimination games. Texas is still more likely in than out at 64 percent, but it has Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU left and no longer has a loss to give.

Georgia gains 12 points and takes the highest playoff number on the board from Miami, which gains four of its own as the ACC thins out behind it. Indiana gains six, because it is 6-0 and because three SEC teams and Oregon just fell out of its way. Iowa and Missouri each gain six, USC gains four, and Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas Tech and Utah gain two apiece. Alabama gives back four, which is light for a loss, because it is the kind of loss the committee forgives. BYU gives back two with LJ Martin hurt and Notre Dame coming to Provo. Nebraska gives back two.

UCLA joins the table with a 30 percent chance and Kentucky with 20. ESPN’s Playoff Predictor had UCLA at 1 percent in August and has it at 33 now. Oregon, which we gave a 74 percent chance in August, and Florida fall into the field. The field grows to 1.80 and now also holds Houston, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Pitt. The Group of Six holds at 1.12. FPI gives Boise State a 46.6 percent chance of making the playoff and James Madison 27.1.

Conference Projections

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of winning its conference.

ACC. Miami 73 (up 3), Wake Forest 9 (up 6), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 3 (down 3), Duke 3 (down 4), field 2. Louisville and Virginia fall into the field. Miami is the only unbeaten team left in the league. Wake Forest is 5-1 and 3-1 in the ACC after scoring the last 31 points at NC State, and its only loss is to Miami. Duke lost 28-25 at Georgia Tech when Gavin Strange missed a 33-yard field goal with five seconds left. FPI has Miami at 82.6 percent.

SEC. Georgia 46 (up 18), Alabama 20 (down 4), Texas 14 (down 11), Ole Miss 5 (up 1), Missouri 4 (up 2), Kentucky 3 (new), Tennessee 2, LSU 2 (down 6), Oklahoma 1 (new), Mississippi State 1, field 2. Florida falls into the field. Georgia now holds the tiebreaker over Alabama, and ESPN says FPI gives the Bulldogs at least an 80 percent chance of winning each game they have left. Kentucky is 3-1 in the league. FPI has Georgia at 54.3 percent, Alabama at 23.9 and Texas at 13.5.

Big Ten. Ohio State 42 (up 2), Indiana 34 (up 7), UCLA 6 (new), Iowa 5 (up 1), Oregon 3 (down 12), USC 3, Wisconsin 3 (up 1), Nebraska 2 (down 3), field 2 (down 2). This is a two-team race, and the two teams play in Bloomington on Saturday. The field shrinks because Penn State and Michigan, the biggest names in it, are both winless in the league. FPI has Ohio State at 44.5 percent and Indiana at 41.1.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30, Utah 27, BYU 24, Houston 7 (up 3), Oklahoma State 5, Arizona 2, Baylor 2 (new), field 3 (up 1). Cincinnati and Kansas State fall into the field. Kansas State is 0-2 in the league. Last week we wrote that Cincinnati had taken its first loss without saying to whom. It was to Arizona, which has now won four straight and scored 52 at West Virginia. Houston hosts Oklahoma State on Saturday, and CBS notes that Oklahoma State also gets Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th. FPI has Texas Tech at 33.6 percent, Utah at 28.0 and BYU at 21.7.

Pac-12. Boise State 64 (up 8), Oregon State 20 (up 9), Fresno State 7 (down 8), Washington State 4, Texas State 2 (down 5), San Diego State 1 (down 4), Utah State 1, Colorado State 1. Boise won 38-31 at Fresno State in the game we circled in August, with 150 rushing yards from Dylan Riley and 120 from Sire Gaines. Oregon State beat San Diego State 66-14 and has won four straight. FPI has Boise at 68.0 percent, Oregon State at 24.1 and Texas State at 1.4.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a sixth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. Starting this week we also rank four more leagues behind them: the American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and the MAC. The SEC had three top-ten teams lose on the same day, which ESPN says has happened only three times in the history of the AP poll. All three lost to other SEC teams. FPI still has ten SEC teams in its top 25, with seven from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and three from the ACC. SP+ counts it differently, with nine from the Big Ten, seven from the SEC, six from the Big 12 and two from the ACC. We keep the SEC first because it has four of SP+’s top nine teams and the Big Ten has two.

The SEC has a clear No. 1 for the first time this season. Georgia has Auburn and Florida next and should be unbeaten when the first committee ranking comes out on November 3rd. Behind it, the league spent Saturday reshuffling. Texas lost to an Oklahoma team that had lost by 28 to Georgia. LSU lost to a Kentucky team that had lost by 28 to Alabama. Florida, which beat Ole Miss by 24 two weeks ago, lost at home to a South Carolina team that had dropped eight straight league games. Shane Beamer’s seat cooled and Jon Sumrall’s first bad month began. At Texas A&M, which is 3-3 after starting 11-0 a year ago, Mike Elko used his postgame press conference to go after a fan site. LSU still matters to everyone else, whatever happens to its own chances. Alabama goes to Baton Rouge on November 7th and Texas goes there a week later, and FPI still rates LSU eighth. Missouri goes to Ole Miss, Alabama goes to Tennessee and Kentucky goes to Oklahoma.

The Big Ten gets its game of the year on Saturday, when Ohio State goes to Indiana in a rematch of last year’s conference championship game. Indiana won that one. The surprise is behind them. UCLA is one of two unbeaten teams left in the league, and the other is Indiana. The Bruins host Wisconsin, which has won four straight since losing to Notre Dame. Oregon is 1-1 in the league and hosts Nebraska, where Dylan Raiola played before he transferred. Iowa and USC both won on the road. Penn State is 3-3, the same record that got James Franklin fired a year ago, and Michigan is winless in the league under Kyle Whittingham.

The Big 12 still has three unbeatens and still has not sorted them. Texas Tech was off and hosts Arizona State. Utah never trailed against Kansas. BYU won by 14 without LJ Martin and now gets Notre Dame without him. The league’s best game on Saturday is one tier down, where Houston hosts Oklahoma State with both teams at one loss. Houston is a failed two-point conversion at Texas Tech from being unbeaten. Arizona is 5-1 with its only loss at BYU. West Virginia has lost three straight after a 3-0 start and has allowed 40 or more in all three.

The ACC is down to one unbeaten. Pitt lost at home in Holden Geriner’s first start, and Duke lost at a Georgia Tech team that had not beaten an FBS opponent in six tries. Wake Forest is the best of the rest. Jake Dickert’s team is 5-1 with three road wins over power-conference opponents, and Gio Lopez threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns in Raleigh. North Carolina, 3-2 after winning at Pitt, goes to Duke. Miami comes off its week off to face Florida State. SMU does not play Miami and hosts Wake Forest in November.

The Pac-12 race looks more like Boise State and Oregon State than Boise State and Fresno State now. Oregon State receiver Jesse Legree, a true freshman, has 38 catches for 932 yards and 12 touchdowns in six games. We rank the Pac-12 ahead of the four leagues below because its average team rates higher than theirs in both FPI and SP+, and because FPI has Boise State 29th and Oregon State 49th, which no other league in the group can match. SP+ is cooler on the top of the league. It has Boise 42nd, behind New Mexico and James Madison. Boise’s only loss is by seven at Oregon, Oregon State’s two losses are to Houston and Texas Tech, and Boise beat the MAC favorite, Western Michigan, by 25. The league is not deep. Three of its eight teams are below 100th in FPI. But FPI gives Boise a 46.6 percent chance of making the playoff, the best of any team outside the power conferences.

The American is the deepest of these leagues and has the weakest top. It has no team in FPI’s top 50, but only three of its 14 are below 100th, and its median team rates better than the Pac-12’s in both FPI and SP+. Memphis is 5-1 and 54th, and FPI gives the Tigers a 38.0 percent chance of winning the league, with North Texas at 25.6 and UTSA at 18.3. Both Memphis and North Texas have beaten UNLV. What the American does not have is a playoff candidate. FPI gives Memphis a 6.3 percent chance, the best in the league.

The Mountain West has the second-best team in the group. New Mexico is 4-1 under Jason Eck, 38th in FPI and 29th in SP+, which makes the Lobos the highest-rated team outside the power conferences in that system. Their only loss was 14-6 at Oklahoma, and they have scored 103 points in two games since. FPI gives them a 63.9 percent chance of winning the league. North Dakota State took its first FBS loss, 13-7 at UNLV, and goes to New Mexico on October 24th. Behind those two the league falls off, with five of its ten teams below 100th.

The Sun Belt is James Madison and not much else. The Dukes are the last unbeaten team in the Group of Six after a 27-24 win at Georgia Southern, their first close game of the season. They are 6-0 under Billy Napier, and FPI gives them a 62.0 percent chance of winning the league and a 27.1 percent chance of making the playoff, second to Boise State. The next Sun Belt team in FPI is 83rd, and half the league is below 100th. That thin schedule is the problem for James Madison, though résumé SP+ currently has the Dukes 16th and Boise State 23rd.

The MAC is last by a wide margin. It has no team in FPI’s top 75, and 11 of its 13 are below 100th. Western Michigan, at 4-2 and 76th, is the favorite with a 50.1 percent chance of winning the league, and its losses are to Michigan and Boise State. No MAC team has as much as a 1 percent chance of making the playoff.

The Week 7 Board

All times Eastern. All games are Saturday, October 17th. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor, and each percentage is the favorite’s chance of winning. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 6 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. For the first time in five weeks, the market and the Match-Up Predictor have the same favorite in every game on our board. They still disagree on how much. ESPN makes Ohio State close to a coin flip at 52.2 percent, where a four-point line implies about 60. It is also less confident than the line on Notre Dame. It is far more confident than the line on Houston, and somewhat more on Texas.

Predictions

Texas 30, Florida 17. ESPN gives Texas an 87.5 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings put the gap at about 15 points in Austin. SP+ makes it about 16. Florida has given up 83 points in two weeks. South Carolina threw four touchdown passes against what the AP called the league’s worst pass defense. Texas has its own problem. Its offense has been the question all season, and it just lost a game in which its defense allowed one offensive touchdown. But Manning threw for 260 yards and three scores against a far better defense than this one, and Florida has played two straight games without its leading receiver. We do not think Texas scores enough to push this over. Texas wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Texas has no loss left to give. Starting with this one, its next five opponents were all ranked in last week’s AP poll, and ESPN points out that a bad loss to Florida was one reason the committee left Texas out a year ago. A second loss to an unranked team would put the Longhorns on the bubble with Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play. For Florida, a third straight loss ends any playoff talk, and Georgia is still on the schedule. Two other teams have a stake in this. Missouri’s best win is over Florida, and Ole Miss’s worst loss is to Florida, so both need the Gators to stop sliding.

Ohio State 24, Indiana 21. ESPN gives Ohio State a 52.2 percent chance of winning, and FPI rates the Buckeyes 2.7 points better on a neutral field, which is about even in Bloomington. SP+ has the gap at 2.8 points and says the same thing. The market has Ohio State by four. We have Ohio State second and Indiana seventh, and we are still taking the points. Indiana has won 22 in a row, beat Ohio State in December and is at home. What worries us about the Hoosiers is the 65 rushing yards at Nebraska. Turbo Richard had ten yards on eight carries, and Ohio State’s defense is better than Nebraska’s. Hoover and Marsh will have to do it again. We think they keep it close and that Jeremiah Smith is the difference late. Ohio State wins, Indiana covers. Under.

What it means. This is the game that decides how the Big Ten race is shaped. FPI gives Ohio State a 44.5 percent chance of winning the league and Indiana 41.1, and the winner holds the tiebreaker. If Ohio State wins, both teams are still in good position. The Buckeyes would have their best win, and Indiana would be 6-1 with its only loss to a top-five team. The risk for Indiana is its schedule. ESPN says the Hoosiers have played the weakest slate of anyone in its top 12, and Ohio State is the highest-ranked team they will see, so a loss leaves them without a marquee win and without another chance at one before a possible rematch in the Big Ten championship game. If Indiana wins, the Hoosiers are close to a lock and Ohio State is the team in trouble. The Buckeyes would have two losses with a trip to USC and a home game against Oregon still to come. ESPN’s view is that a second loss would not knock them out, but it would open the debate and cost them in seeding.

That is why the result matters to the whole league. We give Ohio State a 78 percent chance of making the playoff and Indiana 74, and after them the Big Ten’s candidates are UCLA at 30, Iowa at 24, USC at 18 and Nebraska at 16. Both CBS and ESPN project three Big Ten teams in the field today, with UCLA as the third. An Ohio State win is the safer result for the conference, because it leaves both of its best teams with one loss or none. An Indiana win makes the Hoosiers safe and puts Ohio State one more loss from the bubble, and then a third bid depends on UCLA staying unbeaten without knowing if it has its quarterback, or on Iowa getting to 11-1 with a schedule that may not include a ranked win.

LSU 34, Mississippi State 27. ESPN gives LSU a 76.8 percent chance of winning, and the line is 11.5. FPI and SP+ both make it about 11.5 as well, so the models agree with the market, and the case for Mississippi State is ours and not theirs. Last week we sided with the bigger LSU number and were wrong, and the reasons to be careful have grown. LSU’s defense came in allowing 220.6 yards a game and gave up 401 to a Kentucky team missing six defenders. Mississippi State has had two weeks to get Kamario Taylor’s ankle right, and we held the Bulldogs in our ranking on the belief that the Alabama game was not a fair look at them. This is where we find out. LSU is the better team, it is at home, and Sam Leavitt threw for 275 yards on Saturday. We think LSU wins a game that stays within one score. LSU wins, Mississippi State covers. Over.

What it means. For LSU this is the first of the elimination games. CBS wrote that the Tigers need to win out, and they still have Alabama and Texas at home. A third loss in mid-October would end it. Mississippi State is 4-1, and a win in Baton Rouge would put it back in the playoff conversation, with Texas and Ole Miss still ahead. A Bulldogs win would also help Missouri, whose only loss is to Mississippi State.

Alabama 31, Tennessee 21. ESPN gives Alabama a 71.2 percent chance of winning, and both the line and FPI make it about a touchdown in Knoxville. SP+ is closer, at about four points, after dropping Alabama to eighth. Tennessee is 5-1 and does not know who its quarterback is. George MacIntyre threw for 247 yards with two interceptions at Arkansas, the Vols turned it over three times, and they needed all of DeSean Bishop’s 138 yards to beat a 2-4 team by seven. Alabama has already won by 28 at Kentucky and by 33 at Mississippi State. The thing to check is Coleman-Williams, who left the Georgia game twice. Georgia held Alabama to 17, and we do not think Tennessee’s defense is Georgia’s, but we also do not see the Vols scoring enough to get this to 57. Alabama wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Alabama can absorb the Georgia loss. It cannot easily absorb two in a row, because the trip to LSU is still ahead and Georgia now holds the tiebreaker for the SEC championship game. ESPN’s point is that it is hard to win a debate as a multi-loss team that did not play for its league title. For Tennessee, this is the win its résumé does not have. The Vols are 5-1 with their only loss to Texas, and beating Alabama would put them in the playoff discussion. A loss leaves them at two with South Carolina, Kentucky and LSU still to play.

Notre Dame 27, BYU 17. ESPN gives Notre Dame a 78.2 percent chance of winning. The line is 12.5, and FPI’s ratings make it about 11 in Provo. SP+ makes it only four, and it has BYU’s defense ninth in the country. Notre Dame has won every game by double digits, but it has not played on the road against a team like this. BYU has held its last two Big 12 opponents to ten points each, and Bachmeier just accounted for 438 yards by himself. He will have to, because ESPN reports that LJ Martin will not play. Notre Dame’s Leonard Moore missed the Stanford game with a concussion and is worth watching during the week. We think the Irish win a slower game than they are used to, and that 12.5 is a few points too many at night in Provo. Notre Dame wins, BYU covers. Under.

What it means. Notre Dame has no conference title to fall back on, so its margin is two games: this one and Miami on November 7th. ESPN notes that if the Irish lose both, their place in the field becomes a real question, and the committee would look hard at the rest of a schedule that has not been strong. A win in Provo would be their best of the season and would all but lock them in. BYU does not need this game to make the playoff, because the Big 12 champion gets in automatically. What it changes is the Cougars’ fallback. Beating Notre Dame would give BYU a win that could carry an at-large case if it loses the league, and it would be the Big 12’s best argument for a second bid. Losing means BYU most likely has to win the conference, and that road goes through Utah.

Houston 34, Oklahoma State 27. ESPN gives Houston a 74.9 percent chance of winning, which is a long way from a line of 3.5. FPI is closer to ESPN, with a gap that works out to about nine points in Houston. SP+ is nearer the line, at about four and a half. All three have Houston by more than 3.5, and we side with them. Houston outgained Kansas State 475 yards to 299 on the road, and Conner Weigman and Overmyer connected for four touchdowns. Oklahoma State is 4-1 under Eric Morris, and Drew Mestemaker threw for 304 yards against UCF, but the Cowboys were tied at halftime at home and gave up four touchdown passes. Both quarterbacks are good enough to get this past 58.5. Houston wins and covers. Over.

What it means. This is close to an elimination game in the Big 12 race. Houston already has a league loss, to Texas Tech, and a second one would leave it needing help from three unbeaten teams. Oklahoma State is 2-0 in the league, and a win here would mean its game against Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th could decide a spot in the conference title game. CBS already lists the Cowboys with Utah, BYU and Texas Tech as the four teams likely to settle the league. Neither team is in our playoff table yet. The winner will have a case to be.

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Three teams are unbeaten after four weeks, and they got there three different ways. San Francisco has not allowed a sack all season, Kansas City has the league’s leading rusher in Kenneth Walker III, and Minnesota has scored one offensive touchdown since Week 1.

Eleven of the 16 games finished within one score, per NFL.com. Three were fourth-quarter comebacks by teams facing 1-3: the Rams in Philadelphia, the Cowboys in Houston and the Patriots in Buffalo. Houston, Tampa Bay, the Chargers, Tennessee and Miami are 0-4.

There were injuries to some of the biggest names. Lamar Jackson (ankle), Ja’Marr Chase (concussion), Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Patrick Surtain II (ankle) all left games, and Washington lost a second quarterback in three weeks.

Week 4 Review

Each game lists the line, our pick, what we expected to decide it and what did. Lines are DraftKings from late in the week, via ESPN’s Week 4 preview, with our published line in parentheses where it moved. [LINE TK] marks a kickoff line we don’t have.

Thursday

Browns 27, Steelers 24

Deshaun Watson led a go-ahead fourth-quarter drive for the third straight week, and Andre Szmyt’s career-long 56-yard field goal won it with 10 seconds left. Cleveland led 21-7 late in the first half before Pittsburgh tied it at 24 with 1:44 to play.

The Browns sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and hit him 10 times. Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions, the second on a Hail Mary. Cleveland is 3-1 for the first time since 2001.

Steelers -2.5 when we published), total 37.5. ESPN had Pittsburgh at 55.4%. Our Pick: Steelers.

Expected: Pittsburgh’s rebuilt right side against Cleveland’s disguised pressure and Mason Graham. What decided it: The pressure, without Graham, who left in the first quarter with a knee injury. Mike McCarthy described five-man pressure with man coverage from the start, and Pittsburgh’s protection never solved it.

London

Colts 30, Commanders 13

Washington led 6-0 when Marcus Mariota was sacked on third down and left with a right knee injury. Dan Quinn said it looks like an MCL. Seventh-round rookie Athan Kaliakmanis played the rest and went 15 of 33 with a 47-yard touchdown and an interception.

Jonathan Taylor ran for 95 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts won despite two Daniel Jones turnovers and 143 passing yards. Jayden Daniels (elbow) and Terry McLaurin (hamstring) were inactive.

Colts -3.5 late in the week (-3 when we published), total 47.5. ESPN had Indianapolis at 53.9%. Our Pick: Colts.

Expected: Whether Daniels would play, and whether Washington could score without takeaways. What decided it: Daniels didn’t play, and Washington was on its third quarterback after two drives. The Commanders settled for field goals on two red-zone trips before the injury and scored once after it.

Sunday Early

Patriots 29, Bills 26

Drake Maye had two first-half turnovers, then threw three touchdown passes. The last was a one-handed catch by Efton Chism III with 1:50 left, at the end of a 73-yard drive that began with New England down five.

Josh Allen’s deep throw for Joshua Palmer was intercepted by Craig Woodson on the next drive. Buffalo blitzed Maye 15 times, and he went 9 of 14 for 118 yards and all three touchdowns against it, per Bill Barnwell of ESPN. Mike Vrabel went for it twice on fourth down in field-goal range, and both drives ended in touchdowns.

Bills -6.5 late in the week (-7 when we published), total 48.5. ESPN had Buffalo at 71%. Our Pick: Bills.

Expected: Maye’s turnovers without A.J. Brown. What decided it: Maye had two turnovers and won anyway, because Allen had the one that mattered. New England played without Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore, and Buffalo lost DJ Moore and Ed Oliver during the game.

Bears 23, Jets 12

Chicago ran 89 plays to New York’s 32, held the ball for nearly 43 minutes and did not punt. Its 34 first downs outnumbered the Jets’ plays, which had not happened in the NFL since 1999.

Kyle Monangai carried 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns. Tyson Bagent threw for a career-high 268 yards after Case Keenum took a ceremonial first snap. The Jets went 0 for 7 on third down, though Minkah Fitzpatrick ended their record 20-game interception drought.

Bears -3.5 late in the week (-3 when we published), total 43.5 (42.5 when we published). ESPN had Chicago at 66.2%. Our Pick: Bears.

Expected: Keenum or Bagent without left tackle Braxton Jones, and Geno Smith’s form. What decided it: Neither quarterback question. Chicago ran for 232 yards, per CBS Sports’ Week 4 grades, and Smith had the ball for 17 minutes.

Jaguars 22, Bengals 17

Jacksonville stopped Chase Brown a yard short on fourth-and-10 with 50 seconds left. Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards but had two interceptions, one returned 45 yards to set up a touchdown and one in the red zone.

Trevor Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 227 yards and beat Cincinnati for the first time in four tries. The Bengals lost Ja’Marr Chase to a concussion in the second quarter and ran for 23 yards. The officials called 24 penalties for 244 yards.

Bengals -2.5, total 51.5. ESPN had Jacksonville at 55%. Our Pick: Jaguars.

Expected: DVOA’s No. 2 team against a defense that had just allowed 411 yards. What decided it: Jacksonville’s defense, not Cincinnati’s. The Jaguars gave up 428 passing yards and still made two red-zone stops, and their interception streak reached nine games, a franchise record.

Giants 36, Cardinals 24

Arizona led 14-3 after 12 minutes and gained 138 yards the rest of the way. Jameis Winston threw three touchdown passes and two interceptions, and Malik Nabers caught six passes for 112 yards.

Jacoby Brissett threw three interceptions. Deonte Banks returned the last one 98 yards for a touchdown on the final play. The Giants are alone in first place in the NFC East.

Cardinals -2.5 late in the week (-1.5 when we published), total 44.5. ESPN had Arizona at 55.1%. Our Pick: Cardinals.

Expected: The Giants’ defense without Brian Burns. What decided it: That defense. It intercepted Brissett three times, got a first career interception from rookie Arvell Reese, and ended a game with a red-zone interception for the second straight week.

Rams 24, Eagles 20

Philadelphia led 20-10 with fourth-and-goal at the 2 midway through the fourth quarter, went for it and threw incomplete. The Rams then drove 98 and 79 yards for Kyren Williams touchdowns, the second with 1:10 left.

The Eagles went 0 for 12 on third down and gained 172 yards. They played without DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Lane Johnson, then lost Saquon Barkley to a hamstring injury in the first quarter. Matthew Stafford threw two more interceptions and has six.

Rams -3 late in the week (-1.5 when we published), total 43.5 (46.5 when we published). ESPN had the Rams at 56.6%. Our Pick: Rams.

Expected: Puka Nacua’s return, and an Eagles team that was 22nd in DVOA with no takeaways. What decided it: Nacua caught nine passes for 125 yards, most of it after halftime. The Eagles got their first two takeaways and still lost, because the Rams blitzed Jalen Hurts on half his dropbacks and he went 5 of 16 against it, per Barnwell.

Packers 17, Buccaneers 14

Jordan Love threw two short touchdown passes, and Green Bay survived two fourth-quarter turnovers deep in Tampa Bay territory. Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie making his first start, threw two interceptions that became 10 Packers points.

Love was hit twice after taking 31 hits in three games, with Laken Tomlinson the fourth player to start at left guard. Todd Bowles passed up a 65-yard field goal try on the Buccaneers’ last possession. Green Bay lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper to an Achilles injury.

Packers -3.5, total 38.5 (39.5 when we published). ESPN had Tampa Bay at 53.9%. Our Pick: Packers.

Expected: Daniels behind a line that had allowed six sacks. What decided it: Daniels’ two interceptions. The surprise was the other line: Green Bay’s, last in pass block win rate, kept Love clean.

Ravens 24, Titans 18

Baltimore led 24-7 at halftime on Lamar Jackson’s 222 yards and two touchdown passes, plus Tyler Loop’s 64-yard field goal on the last play of the half. Jackson hurt his left ankle on the snap before the kick and did not return.

Tyler Huntley went 8 of 9 for 63 yards, and the Ravens did not score again. Tennessee was stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 2, lost a Carnell Tate fumble and scored late to get within six. Baltimore had 13 penalties for 131 yards.

Ravens -11.5, total 42.5 (43.5 when we published). ESPN had Baltimore at 83.3%. Our Pick: Ravens.

Expected: Baltimore’s center position, and whether it let Tennessee hang around. What decided it: The first half. The line question got worse: the Ravens are down to their fourth option at center and their third at right guard, per ESPN’s Jamison Hensley.

Cowboys 34, Texans 30

CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards, the last a 12-yard touchdown in the final minute. Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and went 8 of 11 on the 74-yard winning drive, per Barnwell.

Houston led 16-6 at halftime and 23-13 in the third quarter. Javonte Williams ran for three second-half touchdowns, and Kamari Lassiter gave up a 53-yard catch and two penalties on one drive. C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards, and Nico Collins returned with 118 yards and two touchdowns.

Texans -3 late in the week (-2.5 when we published), total 48.5 (47.5 when we published). ESPN had Dallas at 55.5%. Our Pick: Texans.

Expected: Dallas’ travel from Rio, and DVOA saying Houston was better than 0-3. What decided it: Houston’s coverage. Every one of Lamb’s catches came against zone, per Barnwell. The Texans press on 25% of snaps after 56% last season, per ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime.

Sunday Late

Vikings 15, Dolphins 10

Will Reichard kicked five field goals, and Minnesota is 4-0 without an offensive touchdown in its last two games. T.J. Hockenson caught 13 passes for 119 yards and slid short of the goal line on the last one to run out the clock.

Miami had 76 yards at halftime, then got a 53-yard Ollie Gordon run and a Gordon touchdown to make it 12-10. A 68-yard Malik Willis touchdown pass was wiped out by an illegal-touching penalty. The Vikings held the ball for 14 of the final 15 minutes.

Vikings -10.5 late in the week (-10 when we published), total 38.5. ESPN had Minnesota at 82.4%. Our Pick: Vikings.

Expected: Minnesota’s pass rush against Willis, without De’Von Achane. What decided it: That, barely. Willis went 9 of 17 for 85 yards and lost a fumble on one of Dallas Turner’s two sacks. Kyler Murray was sacked four times by a defense that had no sacks all season.

Chiefs 30, Raiders 27

Kenneth Walker III ran for 177 yards and two touchdowns, including a 76-yard run that set up Kansas City’s first lead. Las Vegas led 19-17 with 4:53 left. Tyquan Thornton’s 55-yard catch set up Walker’s go-ahead score, and a fumbled kickoff handed Walker another.

Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns and was intercepted near midfield at the end. Thornton dislocated his left ankle on the long catch, and Rashee Rice left with a hamstring injury.

Chiefs -4.5 late in the week (-5.5 when we published), total 47.5. ESPN had Kansas City at 70.2%. Our Pick: Chiefs.

Expected: Las Vegas’ takeaways and sacks against Walker and Patrick Mahomes. What decided it: Walker, and a takeaway going the other way. The Raiders ran for 72 yards at 2.8 a carry. Klint Kubiak also took a field goal off the board for a fourth-and-2 that failed, per the Ringer Staff.

49ers 24, Broncos 14

San Francisco had three points on its first seven possessions, then scored touchdowns on three straight after Marvin Mims Jr. fumbled a punt return. George Kittle’s 56-yard touchdown on a screen with 2:15 left answered Denver’s only touchdown.

Brock Purdy went 19 of 30 for 218 yards with no sacks and no turnovers. Denver finished without both starting cornerbacks, Patrick Surtain II (ankle) and Riley Moss (ribs).

49ers -3, total 47.5 (46.5 when we published). ESPN had San Francisco at 77.6%. Our Pick: 49ers.

Expected: San Francisco’s injuries against Denver’s slow starts, with the 49ers facing the real opponent our rankings discount was waiting for. What decided it: Denver’s slow start held: three first-half points, and 13 in four first halves. The 49ers passed the test without Nick Bosa, and the discount is gone.

Seahawks 30, Chargers 23

Both teams threw an interception on their first play from scrimmage. Seattle led 27-6 in the third quarter and sealed it when Justin Herbert was sacked and fumbled in the final two minutes.

Herbert threw two interceptions and was sacked four times, and Joe Alt left in the second quarter with a neck injury. The teams combined for 30 penalties and 280 yards. Seattle’s 150 penalty yards set a franchise record.

Seahawks -7 late in the week (-6.5 when we published), total 42.5 (43.5 when we published). ESPN had Seattle at 73.8%. Our Pick: Seahawks.

Expected: Seattle’s turnovers against a defense that had forced five. What decided it: The other team’s turnovers. Los Angeles gave the ball away four times, including a muffed punt that Seattle turned into a touchdown on the next play.

Sunday Night

Panthers 32, Lions 26

Bryce Young completed his first 11 passes and finished 29 of 41 for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards, both career highs, and Chuba Hubbard ran for 122 yards and two scores.

Jared Goff threw for 412 yards, but Detroit could not get a first down on its last drive, which started at its 13 with 2:12 left. Carolina played without Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, both starting cornerbacks and both starting tackles.

Lions -3.5, total 51.5 (50.5 when we published). ESPN had Detroit at 61.9%. Our Pick: Lions.

Expected: Carolina without Coker, and how much Detroit got from Jahmyr Gibbs. What decided it: Young had the best EPA per dropback of any quarterback in Week 4, per the Ringer Staff, and Gibbs was held to 77 yards from scrimmage.

Monday Night

Falcons 45, Saints 24

Bijan Robinson scored from 59 yards on Atlanta’s third play and finished with 145 yards and two touchdowns. Brian Robinson Jr. added three short touchdowns, and the Falcons outrushed New Orleans 205 to 50.

Michael Penix Jr. went 15 of 20 for 223 yards and a touchdown. Atlanta has scored 80 points in two games since he returned. The Saints missed a field goal and lost a fumble at their own 22 while falling behind 14-0.

Saints -2.5, total 47.5 (48.5 when we published). ESPN had New Orleans at 62.6%. Our Pick: Saints.

Expected: Penix’s second game against the Saints’ turnovers. What decided it: The run game. Penix was clean, the turnover that mattered was New Orleans’, and the Saints have allowed almost 600 rushing yards in four games, per Fox Sports.

Power Rankings

San Francisco is first on all five lists, ours included. Pre is our preseason rank, and last week’s rank is in parentheses in each note. The outside columns are FTN’s DVOA, ESPN, NFL.com and Pete Prisco of CBS Sports. DVOA now uses 2026 opponent adjustments, at 40% strength.

1. 49ers (2). They beat a real opponent without Nick Bosa, which was the test we were waiting on. FTN has them 11th among all teams through four games since 1977.

2. Chiefs (3). Kenneth Walker III leads the league with 537 rushing yards, per ESPN. The defense has no sacks in three straight games, and Tyquan Thornton and Rashee Rice were hurt going into the bye.

3. Seahawks (4). First in pass rush win rate and in defensive DVOA. FTN also says they have played one of the three easiest schedules and have the hardest one left, starting with San Francisco.

4. Jaguars (6). Second in DVOA and 11-1 in their last 12 regular-season games. We keep them a spot behind Seattle for one more week.

5. Bills (1). Seven turnovers in two weeks and a defense that is 26th in DVOA. The offense is still second.

6. Ravens (5). Lamar Jackson is day-to-day with a left ankle injury, and the line is on its fourth center. Thirteen penalties nearly let Tennessee back in.

7. Rams (9). FTN gave them a 96% post-game win expectancy in a game they trailed by 10 midway through the fourth quarter. Their special teams are last in DVOA, and Matthew Stafford has six interceptions.

8. Bears (11). Three wins with three quarterbacks, the league’s best rushing total, and a defense that is sixth in DVOA after FTN projected it last.

9. Vikings (8). They are 4-0 and 10th in DVOA: 31st on offense, second on defense, first on special teams. FTN’s list of the weakest 4-0 teams does include two champions.

10. Broncos (7). The hardest schedule so far, per FTN, and 13 first-half points in four games. Both starting cornerbacks left Sunday’s game.

11. Raiders (12). They lost by three to Kansas City and moved up a spot. The caution is FTN’s: no team has played an easier schedule.

12. Cowboys (15). Sixth on offense and last on defense in DVOA. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb won a game in which the defense allowed 30.

13. Bengals (10). Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards and the run game added 23. Ja’Marr Chase has to clear the concussion protocol.

14. Lions (13). They have allowed at least 30 points in every game, per ESPN, and are 30th in defensive DVOA. The pass rush is fourth in win rate, so the front is not the problem.

15. Panthers (21). The biggest rise on the board. They are ninth in DVOA, Bryce Young is playing the best football of his career without either starting tackle, and the bye should bring both back.

16. Patriots (24). Drake Maye’s first good game of the season came on the road, without Christian Gonzalez or Christian Barmore. He still leads the league with nine turnovers, per ESPN.

17. Eagles (14). No second-half points in two weeks and 0 for 12 on third down. Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are all hurt, and Jacksonville is next, in London.

18. Falcons (25). Eighty points in two games with Michael Penix Jr., and third in pass rush win rate. Baltimore, Chicago and San Francisco all visit Atlanta next, per NFL.com.

19. Browns (18). They are 3-1 and still 24th in DVOA, so three teams pass them. Deshaun Watson has three straight fourth-quarter go-ahead drives; Mason Graham’s knee is the concern.

20. Giants (22). First place in the NFC East and 31st in ESPN’s FPI. The defense has ended two straight games with red-zone interceptions.

21. Steelers (16). They lost in Cleveland, lost Derrick Harmon for a few weeks and traded Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas. The pass rush is 25th in win rate.

22. Colts (23). They are 2-2 with the league’s second-lowest yards per play, per ESPN. Daniel Jones has turned the ball over in every game.

23. Texans (20). They are 0-4 and 17th in DVOA, the third-best 0-4 team since 1977 by FTN’s count. The pass defense has fallen from fifth to 28th in yards allowed, per ESPN.

24. Saints (17). We had them winning the NFC South. They are 1-3 and 30th in DVOA, and they just allowed 205 rushing yards at home.

25. Packers (27). Last in rushing, with no rushing touchdown, per ESPN. Jordan Love was hit only twice in Tampa, but Edgerrin Cooper is out for the season and the Bears are next.

26. Jets (19). Thirty-two plays in Chicago, and three straight losses since the opener.

27. Commanders (26). They are down to their third quarterback, and ESPN reports optimism about Jayden Daniels for Week 6, not Week 5.

28. Cardinals (28). Three straight losses with at least 30 points allowed in each, per CBS Sports. DVOA still has them 19th.

29. Buccaneers (30). All four losses are by one score, and FTN has them 18th. Baker Mayfield is out three to six weeks, per ESPN.

30. Chargers (29). Last in offensive DVOA and 30th in pass block win rate, and Joe Alt is hurt. Justin Herbert has six interceptions.

31. Titans (31). Three straight losses by six points or fewer, per CBS Sports. Cam Ward topped 200 yards for the first time, and rookie Carnell Tate had 145.

32. Dolphins (32). Their four opponents are a combined 15-1. The defense got its first four sacks of the season in Minnesota.

Projected Win Totals

Sixty-four wins are banked through four weeks, and the other 208 are projected here; the totals sum to 272. The Week 4 column is what we published last week.

Projected seeds. AFC: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, Ravens; wild cards Broncos, Raiders, Bengals; first out, Patriots. NFC: 49ers, Vikings, Cowboys, Panthers; wild cards Seahawks, Rams, Bears; first out, Eagles, Lions and Falcons. We can’t project the tiebreakers between Buffalo and Jacksonville, Dallas and Carolina, the three AFC wild cards, or the three NFC wild cards.

The NFC South. This is the division we had most wrong. The Saints drop three wins and out of the field after losing by 21 at home. Carolina takes the division at 10-7, with a Top 10 DVOA and two tackles due back, and Atlanta rises two more after gaining three last week.

The NFC East. Dallas passes Philadelphia. The Eagles have not scored in the second half for two weeks and are hurt at running back, receiver, tight end and on the line. The Giants rise two wins to 8-9; first place is real, but ESPN’s FPI still ranks them 31st.

Kansas City. The Chiefs were our first team out in August and are now the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Kenneth Walker III is the reason, and the bye comes with two receivers hurt.

The Bears. Up two and into the field. They have won with three quarterbacks, and the defense is sixth in DVOA.

Houston. Down one more, to 6-11. DVOA still ranks the Texans 17th, and FTN gives them one of the easiest remaining schedules.

Holding on the schedule. Cincinnati stays at 10-7 despite losing at home, because FTN has its remaining schedule among the easiest. Denver stays at 10-7 because its 2-2 came against the hardest one.

Top 8 Quarterbacks

This is the first edition of this list.  Their historical body of work carries more weight than 4 weeks. When we review this again after Week 8, the 2026 results will be doing more lifting. The season can move a quarterback at each four-week checkpoint, if the form lasts the whole stretch and can’t be explained by his line or his receivers. The first five are quarterbacks who are the reason their teams win.

Two outside lists show where we differ. Mike Sando of The Athletic surveys coaches and executives before the season, and his order is relayed here by Austin Gayle of The Ringer. NFL.com’s QB Index is weekly; this edition was written entering Week 4. QBR is ESPN’s Total QBR through Week 4.

1. Josh Allen, Bills. Buffalo has seven turnovers in two weeks, and his interception ended Sunday’s game. He also became Buffalo’s career leader in scrimmage touchdowns with his 88th. Two loose weeks don’t outweigh the body of work.

2. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. He is 4-0 ten months after ACL surgery, as Dan Graziano of ESPN notes. The offense now runs through Kenneth Walker III, and Mahomes has been efficient more than spectacular: 20 of 24 in Miami, two touchdown passes in Las Vegas.

3. Lamar Jackson, Ravens. Fourth in QBR, the best of our first five. He threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns in one half against Tennessee before the ankle injury, behind a line on its fourth center. He is day-to-day, per CBS Sports.

4. Joe Burrow, Bengals. He threw for 428 yards on Sunday with 23 rushing yards of support and without Ja’Marr Chase for a half. His two interceptions, one in the red zone, were also the difference in a five-point loss.

5. Matthew Stafford, Rams. The reigning MVP has six interceptions, two more than all of last season, and is last in the league in QBR on play-action, per Barnwell. He also went 12 of 15 for 140 yards on the two drives that won in Philadelphia. He stays fifth on the MVP season, and the next four weeks decide whether he stays at the Week 8 checkpoint.

6. Brock Purdy, 49ers. First in QBR, with 11 touchdown passes, no sacks taken and no turnovers since Week 1. The standing question is how much of it is Kyle Shanahan’s system. The best answer so far is Gayle’s: through three weeks, no Shanahan offense had started a season better. This is our widest gap from the survey, which had him 11th.

7. Dak Prescott, Cowboys. Third in QBR with the league’s last-ranked defense by DVOA behind him. He threw for 335 yards in Houston and went 8 of 11 on the winning drive.

8. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars. Sixth in QBR, on a team that is second in DVOA and 11-1 in its last 12 regular-season games. He went 18 of 23 in Cincinnati for his first win over the Bengals.

First out: Jared Goff, Lions. He is 10th in QBR, threw for 412 yards on Sunday and was ninth in Sando’s survey. Prescott and Lawrence have been better this season.

Top 8 Offensive Lines

Four of our August eight stay and four go. The 49ers, Bills, Rams and Bears hold; the Raiders, Lions, Chiefs and Bengals replace the Broncos, Eagles, Chargers and Buccaneers. Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 4, with league rank in parentheses.

One caveat covers the whole list: win rate does not capture penalties. Baltimore was flagged 13 times on Sunday, and the Chargers and Seahawks combined for 30.

1. 49ers. They have not allowed a sack in four games, the first team to do that since the 2005 Colts. Sunday’s shutout came against a Denver defense that had the fifth-most sacks in NFL history last season, per CBS Sports. Colton McKivitz is fourth among tackles in pass block, and Trent Williams is tied for seventh.

2. Bills. The only line in the top four of both team measures. Dion Dawkins is fourth among tackles in run block, and Connor McGovern is sixth among interior linemen.

3. Raiders. First in pass block, with Kolton Miller first among tackles and Tyler Linderbaum 10th among interior linemen. Two cautions: they ran for 72 yards against Kansas City, and Jackson Powers-Johnson missed that game with a groin injury.

4. Rams. Their pass block rank rose from 18th to sixth in a week, and they gained 415 yards in Philadelphia. Warren McClendon Jr. is sixth and Alaric Jackson 10th among tackles in run block.

5. Lions. Fifth in pass block, with Blake Miller 11th and Penei Sewell 13th among tackles. A run block rank of 22nd keeps them from going higher.

6. Chiefs. Creed Humphrey is first among interior linemen in pass block, and Kenneth Walker III leads the league in rushing. They have done it without left tackle Josh Simmons, who has not played this season.

7. Bears. We had them marked for a downgrade after they lost left tackle Braxton Jones. They then ran for 232 yards against the Jets and lead the league with 785 rushing yards, per ESPN. Darnell Wright is sixth among tackles in pass block, and Garrett Bradbury is tied for second among interior linemen.

8. Bengals. First in run block, with Dalton Risner first among interior linemen and Orlando Brown Jr. second among tackles. This is the thinnest entry: they are 19th in pass block and ran for 23 yards against Jacksonville.

Dropped. Denver is 23rd in pass block and 20th in run block, with 13 first-half points all season. The Eagles are still ninth in pass block, with Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata second and third among tackles, but they are 29th in run block and played Sunday without Johnson and Landon Dickerson. The Chargers are 30th in pass block and lost Joe Alt to a neck injury. Tampa Bay is 22nd and 23rd.

First out. Minnesota is third in run block but lost Christian Darrisaw and Donovan Jackson during Sunday’s game. Baltimore is seventh in run block, 20th in pass block and on its fourth center. Atlanta ran for 205 yards on Monday, and Chris Lindstrom is in the top three of interior linemen in both measures.

Charting against results. Houston is seventh in pass block, yet its run game managed 50 yards on 17 designed carries in Week 4, per Barnwell. Pittsburgh is eighth after allowing five sacks in Cleveland. Green Bay is last at 22%, eight points behind the next-worst team, and just kept Jordan Love to two hits.

Top 8 Defensive Lines

This list changes more than the offensive one: three hold and five are new. The Seahawks, Rams and Ravens stay; the Vikings, Falcons, 49ers, Patriots and Broncos replace the Steelers, Bengals, Eagles, Texans and Giants. Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 4 with league rank in parentheses, and defensive DVOA rank is FTN’s.

1. Seahawks. First in pass rush win rate by five points and first in defensive DVOA. They sacked Justin Herbert four times on Sunday, and DeMarcus Lawrence ranks in the top eight among edges against both the pass and the run.

2. Vikings. Top two in all three measures, and the strongest omission from our August list. The caveat stands: they blitz on 68% of dropbacks, per ESPN, so some of this is Brian Flores. Andrew Van Ginkel is fourth and Dallas Turner ninth among edges in pass rush.

3. Rams. They held the Eagles to 172 yards without Myles Garrett, who is on injured reserve after knee surgery, or Aaron Donald, who sat with a back injury. Kobie Turner is third among tackles in run stop. They blitzed on half of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks, per Barnwell, so the Flores caveat applies here too.

4. Falcons. Third in pass rush, with Maason Smith first and Brandon Dorlus third among tackles. Za’Darius Smith entered the concussion protocol on Monday night.

5. 49ers. Sixth in pass rush and fifth in defensive DVOA without Nick Bosa. Romello Height is tied for sixth among edges and Osa Odighizuwa is seventh among tackles. A run stop rank of 24th is the weakness.

6. Ravens. Trey Hendrickson is eighth among edges and missed Sunday after a procedure on a broken finger.

7. Patriots. Seventh in pass rush and seventh in defensive DVOA, with Milton Williams eighth among tackles. They won in Buffalo without Christian Barmore. They are 26th in run stop.

8. Broncos. The numbers are middling, but they come against the hardest schedule in the league, per FTN. Denver held the 49ers to three points on their first seven possessions. Zach Allen is fifth among tackles in pass rush, and Malcolm Roach is sixth in run stop. This is the thinnest entry.

Dropped. The Giants come off because Brian Burns tore his ACL and is out for the season. Pittsburgh is 25th in pass rush, its defensive DVOA has gone from first to 13th in two weeks, and Derrick Harmon is out for a few weeks. Cincinnati is 17th in pass rush and 21st in defensive DVOA, and B.J. Hill missed another game. The Eagles are 30th in pass rush, though fourth in run stop. Houston is 29th in pass rush even with Will Anderson Jr. second among edges in run stop.

First out. Detroit is fourth in pass rush and 30th in defensive DVOA, which points at the secondary. The Chargers are first in run stop, with Tuli Tuipulotu first among edges, on an 0-4 team.

Where the line isn’t the story. Jacksonville is third in defensive DVOA while ranking 23rd in pass rush and 29th in run stop. Chicago is sixth in defensive DVOA and last in run stop. Arizona is ninth in pass rush and 29th in defensive DVOA.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

Field goal range now starts near midfield. Andre Szmyt won Thursday’s game from 56 yards. Tyler Loop hit from 64 to end a half, a week after winning in Rio from 56. Trey Smack’s 58-yarder was the margin in Tampa, and Brandon Aubrey tried from 62 and 65 in one half in Houston.

The tell is what now counts as a decision. Todd Bowles had to explain passing up a 65-yard attempt, and Szmyt said he asked Deshaun Watson only to reach the 42. A trailing team needs far less field in the last minute than it did a few years ago, and coaches have not all adjusted their clock management to it.

The schedule corrections have arrived. FTN switched DVOA to 2026 opponent adjustments this week, at 40% strength and rising. Denver has played the hardest schedule, against four opponents who are 13-3, per Fox Sports. The Raiders, Seahawks and Ravens have played the easiest.

That reframes three teams. Denver’s 2-2 is better than it looks. Las Vegas’ 3-1 gets tested at New England, then against Buffalo and the Rams. Seattle’s four opponents are 4-12, and FTN gives the Seahawks the hardest remaining schedule, starting with the 49ers on Sunday.

The best teams are winning through their own flags. Four of DVOA’s top 10 were penalized at least 11 times in Week 4: Seattle (14), Jacksonville (13), Baltimore (13) and Minnesota (11). All four won, and all four won by one score.

Those games were closer than the play in them. It also bears on our line lists, because win rate does not see a holding call. If the flags continue, the first place it will show is in close losses by teams the efficiency numbers like.

Week 5 Preview

Fifteen games, with Kansas City and Carolina on bye. We take ESPN’s model over the line once (San Francisco), the line over the model twice (Atlanta, Pittsburgh), and go against both twice (Cleveland, the Giants).

Thursday, October 8th

Tampa Bay at Dallas, 8:15 p.m. ET — Cowboys -8.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives Dallas 86.1%.

Key to the Game: Jalon Daniels makes his second start on a short week. He faces the defense DVOA ranks last, so this is the Cowboys’ chance to show the unit is better than that. Guard Tyler Smith is eligible to return from injured reserve, per Barnwell.

Our Pick: Cowboys.

Sunday, October 11th

Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville (London), 9:30 a.m. ET — Jaguars -6.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Jacksonville 73.4%.

Key to the Game: An Eagles offense with no second-half points in two weeks meets a defense that is third in DVOA and has an interception in nine straight games. Watch the statuses of Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Chicago at Green Bay, 1 p.m. ET — Bears -3, total 45.5. ESPN gives Chicago 57.6%.

Key to the Game: The league’s best rushing offense against a defense that just lost Edgerrin Cooper for the season. The other question is whether Green Bay’s protection in Tampa was real or a product of the opponent.

Our Pick: Bears. Chicago has won with three quarterbacks, so the pick doesn’t wait on Caleb Williams’ hamstring.

Houston at Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET — Texans -6.5, total 38.5. ESPN gives Houston 66.4%.

Key to the Game: Two winless teams. Houston’s secondary has blown two-score leads in consecutive weeks, and Tennessee has lost three straight by six or fewer.

Our Pick: Texans.

Cincinnati at Miami, 1 p.m. ET — Bengals -7, total 42.5. ESPN gives Cincinnati 80.3%.

Key to the Game: Whether Ja’Marr Chase clears the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins is available. Miami’s pass rush got its first four sacks of the season in Minnesota.

Our Pick: Bengals.

Las Vegas at New England, 1 p.m. ET — Patriots -3.5, total 45.5. ESPN gives New England 63.8%.

Key to the Game: The league’s top pass-blocking line by win rate against a pass rush that is seventh. Las Vegas also has to run it better than 2.8 yards a carry, with Ashton Jeanty playing through an ankle injury.

Our Pick: Patriots. The Raiders have played the easiest schedule in the league and now travel east for an early kickoff, their third road game in four weeks.

Minnesota at New Orleans, 1 p.m. ET — Vikings -1.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Minnesota 55.1%.

Key to the Game: DVOA’s 31st-ranked offense against its 31st-ranked defense. Justin Jefferson’s health always matters, especially for a team with one offensive touchdown since Week 1.

Our Pick: Vikings. The Saints just allowed 205 rushing yards, and Minnesota’s defense is second in DVOA.

Cleveland at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET — Jets -2.5, total 39.5. ESPN gives New York 55.4%.

Key to the Game: Cleveland’s five-man pressure and man coverage against an offense that ran 32 plays in Chicago. Mason Graham’s knee is the Browns’ concern.

Our Pick: Browns. Against both the line and the model. Cleveland has had 10 days off, and the Jets were missing Breece Hall and two pass catchers last week.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ET — Steelers -2.5, total 44.5. ESPN has it even: Colts 49.9%, Steelers 49.7%.

Key to the Game: Daniel Jones’ turnovers against a Pittsburgh defense missing Derrick Harmon and possibly Jamel Dean, with Joey Porter Jr. traded.

Our Pick: Steelers. Pittsburgh has had 10 days off, and Indianapolis is coming home from London without a bye.

New York Giants at Washington, 1 p.m. ET — Commanders -3.5, total 43.5. ESPN gives Washington 62.9%.

Key to the Game: Washington’s quarterback. Marcus Mariota has a knee injury, and ESPN reports optimism about Jayden Daniels for Week 6, which would leave Athan Kaliakmanis.

Our Pick: Giants. Against both the line and the model. New York is seventh in pass rush win rate, and Washington may also be without Terry McLaurin.

Denver at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET — Broncos -3.5, total 42.5. ESPN has it even: Broncos 50%, Chargers 49.6%.

Key to the Game: A Chargers line that is 30th in pass block and may not have Joe Alt, against Denver’s front. Denver’s own concern is at cornerback, where Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss both left Sunday’s game.

Our Pick: Broncos.

Detroit at Arizona, 4:25 p.m. ET — Lions -4.5, total 54.5. ESPN gives Detroit 69.3%.

Key to the Game: The league’s worst scoring defense against Jacoby Brissett, who threw three interceptions on Sunday. The total is tied for the highest on the slate.

Our Pick: Lions.

San Francisco at Seattle, 4:25 p.m. ET — Seahawks -3, total 47.5. ESPN gives San Francisco 55.7%.

Key to the Game: The game of the week comes down to one matchup. The line that has not allowed a sack faces the pass rush that is first in win rate at 69%.

Our Pick: 49ers. Model over line. San Francisco’s DVOA is more than double Seattle’s, and the Seahawks’ four opponents are 4-12.

Baltimore at Atlanta, 8:20 p.m. ET — Falcons -3, total 43.5. ESPN gives Baltimore 51.8%.

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s left ankle, and a Ravens line on its fourth center against the third-ranked pass rush by win rate.

Our Pick: Falcons. Line over model. The line is pricing the ankle, and Atlanta has scored 80 points in two games.

Monday, October 12th

Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. ET — Rams -2.5, total 54.5. ESPN gives the Rams 59%.

Key to the Game: Two quarterbacks from our top five who have been loose with the ball. Buffalo has seven turnovers in two weeks, and Matthew Stafford has six interceptions.

Our Pick: Rams. Buffalo’s defense is 26th in DVOA and lost Ed Oliver on Sunday, and Aaron Donald could return.

The post 2026 NFL: Previewing Week 5 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

It wasn’t pretty after halftime, and it doesn’t have to be. As we remind ourselves weekly, this is a week-to-week league and the Ravens are 3-1.

The win ends a four-game losing streak at M&T Bank Stadium that dated to last season. It also keeps Baltimore level with Cleveland, which beat Pittsburgh 27-24 on Thursday to get to 3-1. Cincinnati lost to Jacksonville 22-17, so the Bengals and Steelers are both 2-2.

Jackson’s ankle is the biggest question coming out of the game. Given that he was on the sideline in pads for most of the 2nd half, I wouldn’t think there is extended concern.
Still, we have to see if he plays next Sunday night, and if he’s compromised at all if he does.

What Happened

Tennessee’s second play was an interception. Trenton Simpson caught Cam Ward’s throw over the middle, with Mike Green pressuring Ward, and returned it 24 yards to the Titans’ 37. Five plays later Derrick Henry scored from the 5 on fourth-and-1. A week ago the Ravens went for a fourth-and-1 from their own 30 and didn’t get it. This one was at the other team’s 5.

The Titans answered with a 10-play, 70-yard drive and a 3-yard Pollard touchdown. Carnell Tate’s 22-yard catch was the big play, the first of nine.

Baltimore then scored on two long drives in the second quarter.

• 81 yards in six plays. Henry ran for 4, 14 and 11. Jackson hit Matthew Hibner for 25 and Zay Flowers for the 19-yard touchdown.
• 98 yards in eight plays. It started at the 2 and went backward a yard on a false start. Jackson found Andrews twice to get out, Bateman for 28 and Flowers for 52, then Andrews for the 3-yard score.

Between those drives, Tennessee had first-and-goal at the 8 and came away with nothing. More on that below.

The last minute of the half changed the game. Kyle Hamilton stripped Tate at the end of a 33-yard catch and Starks recovered at the Baltimore 35. Jackson moved the offense to the Tennessee 41. Jermaine Johnson II sacked him with 12 seconds left, and Jackson was hurt on the play. Loop came on at third down and hit from 64 yards. It drizzled all day in Baltimore, with temperatures in the low 60s.

That kick is the longest in the history of the stadium, per Jeff Zrebiec. Justin Tucker’s 58-yarder in 2022 was the old mark. It’s the second-longest in team history behind Tucker’s 66 in Detroit.

The second half belonged to Tennessee. The Titans kicked a field goal on their first drive, the teams traded six punts, and Loop missed wide left from 40. Ward then went 70 yards in two minutes, hit Wan’Dale Robinson for a 3-yard touchdown and found Helm for the two-point conversion with 1:12 left. Starks recovered the onside kick and Tyler Huntley knelt twice.

Without Jackson

Jackson’s half: 15 of 20 for 222 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions and two sacks. That’s 11.1 yards per attempt. The offense had 268 yards and 24 points at the break.

After the break it had 116 yards and no points.

Huntley completed 8 of 9 for 63 yards. Nothing was thrown downfield, and Tennessee sat back in zone and let him throw short. His longest completion was an 18-yarder to Bateman on third-and-5, and it was the only third down the offense converted in six tries with him at quarterback. Henry carried 14 times after halftime for 34 yards.

The five real possessions with Huntley:

1. Punt. An Andrews false start made it first-and-15 before the first snap.
2. Punt. Flowers lost 6 on a third-and-4 catch. Durham Smythe was hurt on this drive.
3. Punt. Henry converted a third-and-1 with a 7-yard run to the Tennessee 36. A hold on Walker brought it back, and the third-and-11 throw was incomplete.
4. Punt. An illegal shift wiped out a 4-yard run, Henry lost a yard on third-and-2, and Keondre Jackson’s false start on fourth-and-3 moved it back before the punt.
5. Missed field goal. Eleven plays, 53 yards, and Loop wide left from 40.

Three of the five crossed midfield. Three of the five had a Baltimore penalty. With a two-score lead and a backup quarterback, running Henry and throwing short is the reasonable plan. It still has to produce a first down on third-and-2, and the penalties turned manageable downs into long ones.

Zrebiec reported Jackson walked to the locker room late with a limp. That’s all we know currently.

Short Yardage

In Rio, Henry’s five fourth-quarter short-yardage carries lost 5 yards and converted nothing. We asked at what point you adjust.

Against Tennessee, Henry had seven carries with 1 or 2 yards to go. He converted five.

A sixth conversion, the 7-yard run on third-and-1, came back on the Walker hold. Both failures came after halftime, with Huntley at quarterback and the threat of Jackson keeping the ball gone.

Henry finished with 23 carries for 73 yards, 3.2 per carry, with a long of 14. He had 9 for 39 in the first half.

The context is who was blocking. Vega Ioane made his first start at center with Jovaughn Gwyn, Ethan Pocic and Danny Pinter all on injured reserve. Andrew Vorhees started at right guard, a spot he said he hadn’t played since his sophomore year at USC, per Ravens.com. Vorhees left with a foot injury and Emery Jones Jr. replaced him. Ronnie Stanley was active after the toe injury.

Across from them was Jeffery Simmons. “He has the ability to wreck the game,” Jesse Minter said during the week. Simmons was in on four stops of Henry for a combined 4 yards and batted a pass. He did not have a sack. Tennessee’s two sacks went to Jacob Martin and Harris, who split one, and Johnson.

Ioane had one bad snap, with Huntley in the fourth quarter. Huntley recovered it, and a Tennessee offside wiped out the play.

The fourth-and-1 touchdown came from a different look than the one Dallas kept stopping, with Henry taking the handoff already moving downhill. That’s the adjustment we asked about last week. On the ones that failed, Tennessee had defenders in the backfield before Henry got started, and that’s a blocking problem more than a play-calling one. Declan Doyle has shown he’ll change the picture. At some point this line also has to beat the man across from it. Obviously that’s a harder proposition with guys in and out of the lineup. Maybe if they can build some consistency, that will have a chance to improve.

Penalties

Baltimore was flagged 13 times for 131 yards. Tennessee was flagged five times for 32. The Titans had 21 first downs, and six came by penalty. The Ravens had none by penalty.

Last week the problem was the offensive line, with six flags in Rio. This week the line had one, a Rosengarten false start at the 2 that cost a yard. The other 12 came from everywhere else.

Four of them changed drives.

• Hamilton’s unnecessary roughness came after an incompletion on third-and-10. It would have been fourth-and-10 at the Baltimore 35. Instead Tennessee had a first down at the 20.
• Awuzie’s interference was 39 of the 76 yards on Tennessee’s field-goal drive.
• Sarratt’s hold cut a 29-yard Jackson scramble to a net of 7. Baltimore punted two plays later.
• Walker’s hold took back Henry’s third-and-1 conversion at the Tennessee 36. Baltimore punted after one more snap.

Three Baltimore penalties gave Tennessee 35 yards on one second-quarter drive. That drive ended at the 2 without points.

The Defense

The numbers are good. Tennessee gained 297 yards at 5.1 per play, ran for 85 on 26 carries, and went 2 of 10 on third down. Pollard had 16 carries for 48 yards. The defense forced two turnovers and the offense turned both into points, 10 in all.

The best sequence was at the goal line in the second quarter. Tennessee had first-and-goal at the 8 and gave it to Pollard four straight times: 3 yards, 2, 1, and nothing. Madubuike made the stop on the fourth-down direct snap at the 2. Baltimore went 98 yards the other way for a 21-7 lead.

Then there’s Tate. The rookie caught nine passes for 145 yards on 12 targets, a week after his previous career highs of six for 58. Marlon Humphrey left with a calf injury and Awuzie replaced him. Hamilton spent a lot of the day around Tate, with a pass breakup, the forced fumble and an interference call all coming on throws his way.

And there’s the last drive. A week after allowing go-ahead and tying drives in the fourth quarter in Rio, the defense gave up 70 yards in two minutes with a 14-point lead. It had the drive stopped. Ethan Burke’s sack and a 5-yard catch left Tennessee at fourth-and-11 with 1:51 left. Ward threw to Tate for 33 to the 3.

The pass rush had one sack for the second straight week, this time without Trey Hendrickson, who was ruled out with the finger. Burke got it in his first game with defensive snaps, per Ryan Mink. Green, starting in Hendrickson’s place, was credited with pressure on three throws, including the interception. Ward came in having been sacked five times in three games, per Ravens.com, and he ran four times for 27 yards, 22 of them on the last drive.

How Tennessee moved the ball is what will bother people. Ward got the ball out fast and threw underneath most of the day, which keeps a rush from getting home no matter who is rushing. If you’re going to give up the short throws, you have to tackle and you have to take the ball away. Baltimore did take it away twice. It also let a winless team with one of the league’s lowest-scoring offenses move the ball more easily than it should have, and this was supposed to be the game where the defense got right. It won the game at the goal line and with two turnovers. It still hasn’t played four good quarters.

In 2026, we’re told NFL teams don’t spend much time in pads and tackling in Training Camp.
So you get games in the first Week or 2, where teams look unready for actual game conditions.

Okay, that’s just how it is.

But this was the fourth game of the year, and we’ve entered October.
I’m not saying the Ravens Defense was unprepared to play today. That would be hyperbolic.
I am saying, we’re still waiting to see better tackling, and just overall physicality from this group.
There is talent at all 3 levels of the defense, but they feel like their still searching to find their identity.

There are multiple ways to play the game.
I think the best defenses are built when they think less, and attack more.
Go hit someone.

To be fair, lots of successful defenses are of the bend but don’t break variety.
It can work, especially with a complimentary offense.
But it does leave me wanting more, and missing all of the great defenses of years past that simply imposed their will vs. seemingly being comfortable with being dictated to.

Last Week’s Things To Watch

We listed six. Here’s how each came out.

1. Who snaps the ball. Ioane, with one bad exchange that didn’t count.
2. Short yardage. Better. Five of seven for Henry, including a fourth-down touchdown, against none of five in the fourth quarter in Rio.
3. Whether Baltimore has the ball. It did: 33:08 to 26:52, and 61 plays to 58.
4. The interior rush and Madubuike. Madubuike made the fourth-and-goal stop and was credited with pressure on two throws. The team had one sack.
5. Offensive line penalties. One, for a yard. Everyone else had 12.
6. Whether they put Tennessee away. They controlled the game with Jackson on the field. With him off the field, it became a one score game with 1:12 left.

Takeaways

Jackson. Fifteen of 20 for the second straight week, this time for 222 yards in a half. The offense scored 24 with him and none without him. Now we wait and see what his availability for next week looks like.

Flowers. Eight catches for 118 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. Six of the catches and 119 of the yards came from Jackson. Music City Miracles expected Alontae Taylor to draw him. He left briefly in the fourth quarter and returned. At-least three of his eight grabs were really high-caliber. He’s been excellent so far when available here in 2026.

Loop. He won the game in Rio from 56 and set the stadium record today from 64. Then he missed from 40 with a chance to make it a three-score game, which gave back some of the trust the 64-yarder earned.

The injury list. Jackson (ankle), Humphrey (calf), Vorhees (foot) and Smythe (Achilles) all left this game, per Mink. That’s on top of Hendrickson’s finger and three centers on injured reserve. The line that finished the game had a rookie guard at center and Jones at right guard.

The young rushers. Green started for Hendrickson and Burke played on defense for the first time. Burke had the sack. Green pressured Ward on the interception. The team total was one sack for the second straight week.

Trenton Simpson & Teddye Buchanan. Simpson had the early pick. Was good to see Buchanan back in-action and have a tackle.

Hibner and Andrews.  Combined for 61 yards and a score. Andrews isn’t done, and Hibner having 2 catches for the second straight week is encouraging. Smythe was the best blocking TE, losing him is a blow.

Bateman. With Flowers out against the Saints, Bateman had 7 catches for 88 yards. In the 2 games since, he has 4 catches for 83 yards.  Glad to see him have have a couple of catches again today, but I’d like to see him get more targets.  Flowers and Henry are the primary weapons. Andrews remains the safety valve. To me, Bateman reaching his ceiling is what would make the offense that much harder to defend. Jakobi Lane could return in a few weeks. Bateman needs to take advantage of the opportunity available now.

The O-Line.  Of course all of the weapons can only be at their best if the line in-front of them is giving them a chance. As we said above, when evaluating we have to factor in all of the injuries so far. I think for the next Month, I just want to see the group gain some continuity. Hopefully avoid any further injuries. Let guys get some snaps under their belt together. Hopefully then their play can improve. Would say that all Lineman typically love run-blocking. You want this group to get more comfortable, and look more physical? Lean on the running game.  Also give them some help with additional blockers and larger sets.

Week 5: At Atlanta

The Ravens play the Falcons next Sunday night, Oct. 11th, at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. DraftKings has Baltimore as a 6-point favorite with a total of 49.5. ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor gives the Ravens a 70.9% chance.  EDIT Oct. 6th: Falcons -3, total 43.5. ESPN gives Baltimore a 51.8% chance of winning.

We are writing this before Atlanta plays tomorrow. The Falcons are 1-2 and at New Orleans on Monday night. In our Week 4 preview we picked the Saints. Whatever happens, Atlanta will be playing next Sunday on a short week.

Two different Falcons teams

Cooper Rush started the first two games and the offense did not run a red-zone play in either. Michael Penix Jr. came back in Week 3 from last November’s ACL tear, and the Falcons won 35-14 in Green Bay. They fell behind 7-0, scored 27 straight and outrushed the Packers 242 to 17.

Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns. Drake London caught nine passes for a career-high 194. After a slow first quarter, Penix completed 16 of 18 for 234 yards and a touchdown, per The Falcoholic, with career highs in snaps under center and throws between the numbers. Kevin Stefanski is in his first season as Head Coach.

When Atlanta has the ball

Robinson is the first problem. Baltimore held Tennessee to 3.3 yards per carry on Sunday, but it gave Javonte Williams 98 yards on 19 carries in Rio.

London is the second. A rookie receiver just had 145 yards against this secondary after Humphrey left. If Humphrey’s calf keeps him out, the job falls to Awuzie and Wiggins.

The Falcoholic wrote that Atlanta got the ball out of Penix’s hands quickly against Green Bay, partly because the line has been suspect in protection. A quick passing game makes that harder, with or without Hendrickson.

Look to see what Kyle Pitts does tomorrow vs. the Saints. He’s going into that game with just 2 catches in 3 games, after 88 receptions last year.

When Baltimore has the ball

Who’s under Center for the Ravens?

Atlanta’s secondary is thin. A.J. Terrell is on injured reserve. CJ Henderson allowed 40 yards on 11 targets against Green Bay, while Mike Hughes gave up five catches on six targets for 89 yards and a touchdown, per The Falcoholic. If Hughes is still starting, Flowers against him is the matchup to find.

Up front, Baltimore goes on the road with Ioane at center for a second week and a right guard still to be settled. The Ravens signed veteran center Andre James during the week, though he is coming back from a high ankle sprain.

Former Raven Za’Darius Smith has 2.5 sacks.  The Falcons are high on their 2026 4th Round pick Kendal Daniels who is starting at LB out of Oklahoma.

2nd year Safety Xavier Watts was a 2x All-American at Notre Dame.

Fellow Safety Jessie Bates is the star of the Atlanta Defense. He’s a 3x 2nd team All-Pro.

EDIT: October 6th:  We have the Falcons 4th overall amongst DL’s. They are Third in pass rush, with Maason Smith first and Brandon Dorlus third among tackles. Za’Darius Smith entered the concussion protocol on Monday night.

Things To Watch

1. Jackson’s ankle. The practice reports on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are the story of the week. Does he practice? Does he play if he doesn’t practice?
2. Humphrey’s calf, and who covers London if he can’t go.
3. Right guard. Vorhees’ foot, Jones, or someone else next to Ioane.
4. Robinson on early downs. Atlanta ran for 242 in Green Bay. Baltimore can’t let the Falcons live in second-and-short.
5. Penalties. Twenty-two flags for 209 yards over the last two games.
6. Finishing. Dallas tied it with seven seconds left in Rio. Tennessee scored with 1:12 left on Sunday.

If Jackson ends up not playing next week, I hope we find that out earlier in the week. Forget the subterfuge about giving the Falcons multiple things to prepare for.
If Jackson isn’t able to play, my focus is on what game plan can Doyle operate with Huntley to best give the Ravens an opportunity to win.
Clearly it would start with feeding Henry, and since Huntley can’t push the ball down the field; you are looking for quick hitters to your weapons.

The post Ravens Hold Off Tennessee; Head To Atlanta appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Quick Hits

We went 4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread and 2-4 on totals. That makes the season 19-15 straight up, 16-16-1 against the spread and 18-10 on totals. All four of last week’s unders lost, one of them by half a point when Ohio State and Iowa landed on 45. On the model-versus-market games, both models were right about Pitt, and where ESPN was more confident than the line we sided with it on Alabama and against it on Florida. Both of those calls came in.

Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23. In August we had Alabama seventh in the SEC and wrote that if Keelon Russell hit, we would look silly by October. It is October. Russell threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a fourth, and Alabama outrushed Mississippi State 179 to 18. Kamario Taylor, limited by an ankle injury from the week before, lost a fumble and threw a pick-six to Dijon Lee Jr. in the first seven minutes, threw a second interception later, was sacked five times and came out early in the fourth quarter. Alabama has scored at least 45 in all five games, the only FBS team to do that, and has won 17 straight in the series.

Mississippi State also lost Fluff Bothwell, who carried once and watched the second half in a boot. The Bulldogs are off this week, then go to LSU.

Missouri 45, Florida 17. We picked Missouri to cover. We did not pick this. Missouri held Jadan Baugh to 13 rushing yards, which ended his streak of five straight 100-yard games. Jamal Roberts ran for more than 200 and Austin Simmons threw for more than 300. It was the first win over a top-ten team in Eli Drinkwitz’s tenure. After the Ole Miss game, Jon Sumrall told his team it had not arrived. A week later Missouri did to Florida what Florida had done to Ole Miss.

Pitt 35, Virginia Tech 33, and it cost Pitt its quarterback. John Love had made all six of his kicks this season. He missed from 36 yards on the final play. Virginia Tech outgained Pitt 499 yards to 295, and Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 434, but he turned it over three times. Mason Heintschel left in the third quarter with what was later reported as a torn ACL, and he is out for the season. Holden Geriner finished the game. Pat Narduzzi used his postgame interview to tell AP voters to wake up. Pitt is 5-0 and will probably be ranked this afternoon. It is also a different team from the one that got there.

Ohio State 31, Iowa 14. Jeremiah Smith caught 11 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns against constant double coverage and became Ohio State’s career leader in receptions and touchdown catches. He already held the yardage record. Through five games he has 44 catches for 823 yards and nine scores. Iowa’s only touchdown came in the fourth quarter. We had the Hawkeyes covering 14. They lost by 17.

Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26. The Irish were a yard from a 28-7 lead when North Carolina made a goal-line stand, drove the field before halftime and then returned the second-half kickoff 98 yards to make it 21-20. Notre Dame answered with a 17-play, 75-yard drive that took more than nine minutes, and it finished with a season-high 241 rushing yards. CJ Carr threw four touchdown passes and ran for a fifth. That is 15 straight wins. It is also 26 points allowed by a defense that had given up 33 in four games.

Penn State and Michigan are out of our twenty. Northwestern opened its new stadium by beating Penn State 34-13 and outrushing the Nittany Lions 413 yards to 48. In August we listed Penn State among the five teams we liked less than the projections. Michigan lost 20-14 at Minnesota. Bryce Underwood was 10 of 21 for 101 yards with two interceptions, and the Wolverines are 0-2 in the Big Ten for the first time since 2014.

Miami 41, Clemson 13. Miami went to Death Valley without three defensive regulars and outrushed Clemson 192 yards to 55. Darian Mensah threw for 227 yards and ran 34 yards for a touchdown, and Cooper Barkate took a screen pass to the end zone on Miami’s second snap. We had Clemson’s 13 exactly right and Miami’s number ten points short.

The rest of the ranked teams mostly survived. Texas Tech beat Colorado 29-7 but did not lead until late in the third quarter. BYU gained 216 yards and beat TCU 17-10. Kentucky rallied to beat South Carolina in overtime on a two-point conversion. USC needed a red-zone stand to hold off Washington 25-21. Tennessee benched freshman Faizon Brandon, got 220 yards and three touchdowns from Desean Bishop and beat Auburn with George MacIntyre at quarterback. Houston trailed UCF 17-0 in the third quarter and won 27-17.

Corrections

Last week we wrote that North Dakota State carried a 28.5 percent playoff chance in ESPN’s FPI and was close behind Boise State for the Group of Six bid. That number belonged to James Madison. North Dakota State, 5-0 in its first FBS season, is at 7.8 percent in the current FPI run. We regret the error.

Power Rankings

Alabama moves up four. A 33-point win on the road over the team we had 18th is the best result anyone posted in Week 5, and CBS notes it is the largest road margin over a ranked opponent in program history. Alabama passes Miami, Notre Dame and Indiana. None of those three has a win like it. In August we ranked Alabama 14th and gave it a 40 percent chance of making the playoff, and the reason we gave was the running game. It just ran for 179 yards and held a ranked opponent to 18. Résumé SP+ now has Alabama first by nearly five points. We keep the Tide one spot behind Georgia because FPI still rates Georgia second and Alabama sixth, and because they settle it themselves on Saturday in Tuscaloosa.

Miami moves up one. The Hurricanes won by 28 on the road with a short-handed defense, and they now have three road wins. FPI gives Miami a 93.2 percent chance to make the playoff, the highest in the country. The jump over Notre Dame is about the week: Miami allowed 13 at Clemson and Notre Dame allowed 26 at North Carolina.

Notre Dame slips two. Nothing is broken at 5-0. But ESPN ranks Notre Dame’s schedule 98th, the Irish have beaten one power-conference team with a winning record, and the defense that carried the résumé just had its first bad day. ESPN’s committee projection moved Alabama past Notre Dame for the same reasons.

Florida falls six. The Gators were outplayed in every phase, and 13 rushing yards from Baugh says the line of scrimmage was lost. We do not drop them further because the Ole Miss win is eight days old and still the second-best result on anyone’s schedule in this part of the ranking. That is also why Florida stays one spot ahead of Ole Miss. Each has one lopsided road loss, and Florida won the game between them by 24. FPI is harsher. It has Florida 15th with a 14.6 percent playoff chance, down from 48.9.

Missouri enters at 15. Yes, that is two spots behind a team it just beat by 28. Missouri’s other power-conference win is over Kansas, and it lost at Mississippi State a week ago. Florida has Ole Miss and a win at Auburn. One more result like Saturday’s and the order flips. ESPN’s committee projection treats it the same way, keeping Florida ninth and leaving Missouri out of its twelve.

Iowa drops two. A 17-point home loss to the No. 2 team in our ranking is not disqualifying, and Iowa’s remaining schedule is the friendliest in the Big Ten. But the offense did not reach the end zone until the fourth quarter, and both of Iowa’s good wins were by a combined four points.

USC drops two. The Trojans beat Washington at home by four and needed a late red-zone stand to do it. They are 5-1 with one win we would call good. Penn State is next, on the road.

Mississippi State drops one. We would normally move a team further after a 33-point home loss. Two things hold it here: the wins at Minnesota and South Carolina and over Missouri are still real, and Taylor was plainly not healthy. The off week matters more to this team than to anyone else in the twenty.

Nebraska enters at 20. The Huskers are 5-0 after beating Maryland 48-23, and Anthony Colandrea threw for 238 yards and ran for 108. FPI ranks them 13th. We take Nebraska over Pitt, which is also 5-0, because Pitt no longer has its quarterback. Indiana comes to Lincoln on Saturday.

Penn State and Michigan leave the ranking. Each is 3-2 and has lost two straight Big Ten games. Michigan is off this week and is weighing changes on offense.

Indiana slips two as Alabama and Miami pass it; the Hoosiers beat Rutgers 47-15. LSU, Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Oregon each move up one into the space Florida left, and Tennessee moves up one as Iowa and USC fall. Texas, Ohio State, Georgia and Ole Miss hold. We said we would move Oregon once we knew its quarterback for UCLA. We still do not. Dante Moore has a concussion, Dan Lanning has given no timetable, and Dylan Raiola is expected to start.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 5 AP poll has Texas first, Georgia second and Alabama up to fifth, with Florida 13th, Mississippi State 14th and Missouri 15th. It brings Pitt in at 25 and drops Iowa out. The real poll was not out at press time. Last week’s projection, which we used on the board, turned out to be off in a few places: the AP had Ohio State fifth, Alabama seventh, Florida eighth and Mississippi State 16th.

FPI’s October 4th run has Ohio State first, then Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Miami and Alabama. It has Florida 15th and Missouri 18th, the same order we do. ESPN’s committee projection goes Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Miami, Alabama, Notre Dame, Indiana, BYU, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU and Oregon. We are lower than the committee projection on Florida, and we still have LSU ahead of Ole Miss against the head-to-head.

SP+’s October 4th run keeps Georgia first and Ohio State second, with Indiana third, Alabama sixth and Texas eighth. It moved LSU up three spots to seventh and has Ole Miss 35th, which is the case for our order there. It has Missouri 15th, exactly where we do, but it puts Florida 20th, behind the Tigers. Résumé SP+ goes the other way, with Florida 18th and Missouri 23rd. Where SP+ disagrees with us most is the bottom of our twenty. It has Nebraska 12th, and it dropped Iowa 15 spots to 34th.

Texas stays first without playing. ESPN ranks the Longhorns first in strength of record and second in strength of schedule. SP+ has their schedule third-hardest and Georgia’s 93rd. The case against them is the offense, which averages 5.3 yards a play, 110th in the country. Oklahoma’s defense is next.

The Playoff Field

Alabama gains 16 points on the week and Florida loses 22. Those are the two big moves. Miami gains four and passes Texas for the highest number on the board. That is about the path and not the team: Miami’s nearest ACC challenger just lost its quarterback, and Texas still has five games against ranked SEC opponents. Ohio State gains four and is back to the 76 we gave it in August. Iowa and Mississippi State each lose ten, USC loses six and Ole Miss loses four as its best remaining argument, the LSU win, sits next to a 24-point loss to a team that just lost by 28. Oregon gives back two with Moore’s return undated.

Nebraska and Missouri join the table. Penn State and Michigan fall into the field, which grows to 1.55 and now also holds Pitt, UCLA, Duke, Wisconsin, Kentucky and Oklahoma State. The Group of Six ticks up to 1.12. FPI gives Boise State a 35.2 percent chance and James Madison 28.0.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 70 (up 10), Duke 7 (up 4), Pitt 6 (down 4), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4 (down 3), Wake Forest 3 (new), Louisville 1 (down 7), Virginia 1 (down 3), field 2 (up 1). Clemson falls into the field. Pitt won the game that was supposed to decide second place and lost Heintschel doing it, so its number goes down. Louisville lost at NC State and is 2-3. Virginia lost by 31 at Florida State. Duke is 4-0 and goes to Miami on November 14th. FPI has Miami at 81.2 percent.

SEC. Georgia 28 (up 1), Texas 25 (up 1), Alabama 24 (up 9), LSU 8 (down 1), Florida 4 (down 8), Ole Miss 4 (down 1), Missouri 2 (new), Tennessee 2 (new), Mississippi State 1 (down 3), field 2. Texas A&M and Oklahoma fall into the field. It is a three-team race at the top, and two of the three play each other on Saturday. Alabama misses both Texas and Florida. We gave the Tide 9 percent in August.

Big Ten. Ohio State 40 (up 5), Indiana 27 (up 2), Oregon 15 (down 1), Nebraska 5 (up 2), Iowa 4 (down 4), USC 3 (down 2), Wisconsin 2 (new), field 4 (up 1). Penn State and Michigan fall into the field. Wisconsin has won four straight since the Notre Dame loss and does not play Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon. Ohio State goes to Indiana on October 17th.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30, Utah 27 (up 1), BYU 24, Oklahoma State 5, Houston 4, Cincinnati 3 (down 1), Kansas State 3, Arizona 2, field 2 (up 1). West Virginia falls into the field at 0-2 in the league after losing 45-42 at Iowa State. Cincinnati took its first loss. Tech is unbeaten and still misses both Utah and BYU, which is why it stays on top, but its offense has now been a problem two weeks running.

Pac-12. Boise State 56 (up 6), Fresno State 15, Oregon State 11 (up 2), Texas State 7 (down 4), San Diego State 5 (down 1), Washington State 4 (down 1), Utah State 1 (down 2), Colorado State 1. Boise beat Utah State, and FPI now puts the Broncos at 66.8 percent and Texas State at 2.3. Boise goes to Fresno State on Saturday in the game we circled in August.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a fifth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. SP+ moved toward us at the top. A week ago it had nine Big Ten teams in its top 25 and eight from the SEC. Now it has eight from the SEC and six from the Big Ten. The Big 12 also has six and the ACC three. We keep the Big Ten second because it has the second- and third-ranked teams in SP+ and the Big 12’s best is ninth.

The SEC has three of our top four and the game of the year so far on Saturday. It also spent the week proving how thin the next tier is. Florida beat Ole Miss by 24 and lost to Missouri by 28. Mississippi State beat Missouri and lost to Alabama by 33. Kentucky, ranked for the first time since 2023, needed overtime at 2-3 South Carolina, where Shane Beamer’s seat is as hot as any in the country. Texas and Oklahoma were both off before Dallas. Georgia beat Vanderbilt 38-14 and still has not played a ranked team.

The Big Ten has the top-rated team in FPI and less behind it than it did a week ago. Ohio State handled the trip that usually bites. Indiana and Nebraska are both 5-0 and meet in Lincoln. But Iowa lost by 17, Penn State and Michigan are a combined 0-4 in league play, and USC was a red-zone stop from losing at home. Wisconsin beat Michigan State 31-3 and Northwestern is 3-1 with a six-point loss at Indiana. UCLA, 4-0, gets Oregon in Eugene.

The Big 12 kept its three unbeatens and did not look good doing it. Texas Tech trailed Colorado into the third quarter, BYU scored 17 at TCU and Utah was off. CBS’s bowl projection now has Utah as the league’s champion and calls it a one-bid league. Houston came from 17 down to beat UCF. Iowa State and West Virginia combined for 1,095 yards, and Aiden Flora ran for 212 and three touchdowns and threw for two more. Iowa State goes to BYU on Friday.

The ACC is Miami and a race for second that got worse. Pitt is 5-0 without its quarterback. Virginia Tech outgained Pitt by 204 yards and lost. Louisville is 2-3. Wake Forest, 4-1, beat Stanford by 54 and has now lost only to Miami. Duke, the defending champion, is 4-0 and still unranked. North Carolina, which scored 26 on Notre Dame, goes to Pitt on Saturday.

The Pac-12 is Boise State’s to lose, and Saturday at Fresno State is where it could. The better Group of Six story is elsewhere. James Madison is 5-0 under Billy Napier and second to Boise in FPI’s playoff odds. North Dakota State beat Wyoming 28-0 to get to 5-0. New Mexico is 4-1 after a 61-7 win over UTEP.

The Week 6 Board

All times Eastern. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 5 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. No line was posted for North Carolina at Pitt, which usually means the market is waiting on a quarterback. Georgia at Alabama gives us a model-versus-market split for the fourth straight week: DraftKings has Georgia by 2.5 and the Match-Up Predictor leans Alabama at 52.6 percent. ESPN is also more confident than the line on Texas and less confident than the line on LSU, where SP+ is on the other side.

Predictions

Pittsburgh 23, North Carolina 20. ESPN’s 74.5 percent almost certainly does not know about Heintschel. Geriner got Pitt home in Blacksburg, but the Panthers gained 295 yards and needed three turnovers and a missed kick. North Carolina is 2-2, and Billy Edwards Jr. just threw three touchdown passes against the best defense he will see. He also threw two interceptions, and the Tar Heels ran for 77 yards. Pitt’s defense and the home field are enough, barely. Pitt wins. With no line and no total posted, there is no call against the number.

Texas 20, Oklahoma 13. In August we gave Texas a 62 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff and Oklahoma a 40 percent chance. Texas is at 83 percent now, and Oklahoma is no longer in our playoff table. The Sooners are 2-2, lost 41-13 at Georgia and have talked about benching John Mateer, who turned it over four times in Athens. But SP+ still has Oklahoma’s defense sixth, next to an offense it ranks 78th, and Texas has not moved the ball on anyone good. It ran for 61 yards in Knoxville. A total of 41.5 says the market sees the same game we do, and 9.5 points is a lot in a game that low. Texas wins, Oklahoma covers. Under.

Oregon 34, UCLA 24. We had Oregon second in the country in August, with the defensive line we ranked first. The Ducks are 12th now, and the quarterback is the question. Raiola was 19 of 25 for 289 yards in relief at USC, and Oregon has had two weeks to build a plan around him. UCLA is 4-0 under Bob Chesney and has had the same two weeks. Lanning compared the Bruins to last year’s Indiana. This is their first real test, on the road, against a far better roster. SP+ has Oregon 10th and UCLA 21st, a gap that works out to about ten points in Eugene. Oregon wins, UCLA covers. Under.

LSU 30, Kentucky 17. Kentucky was not in our August plans, and first-year coach Will Stein has it 4-1 with a win at Texas A&M. Stein ran Oregon’s offense last year. The Wildcats also lost 45-17 at home to Alabama and needed a two-point conversion in overtime to beat South Carolina. LSU’s only loss is by eight at Ole Miss. The models split here. ESPN’s 75.4 percent implies a margin closer to a touchdown than to 9.5. SP+ has LSU seventh with the third-ranked defense in the country and Kentucky 46th, which makes it about 13 points in Lexington. We side with SP+ because Kentucky’s one game against a defense this good ended 45-17. Sam Leavitt’s hamstring is the thing to check during the week. LSU wins and covers. Under.

Alabama 31, Georgia 28. We have Georgia third and Alabama fourth, and we are picking Alabama. The game is in Tuscaloosa, and three spots of power ranking is worth less than home field. Georgia has been the most complete team in the models all year, and it has done it against a schedule ESPN ranked 89th coming into the week. Its one road win is at Arkansas. Alabama has scored 45 or more five times, and Russell has not flinched on the road. SP+ has Alabama’s offense first in the country and Georgia’s defense first, and its ratings make Georgia about a 2.5-point favorite in Tuscaloosa, the same as the market. The concern for Alabama is a defense that gave up 36 to Florida State and let it convert 8 of 15 third downs. Georgia will score. We think Alabama scores last. Alabama wins outright. Over.

That is three underdogs and one favorite against the number, and three unders.

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The New York Times ranked the 100 best TV shows of the 21st century in a single list. Survivor sits at 31, three spots below Band of Brothers. The Great British Baking Show lands at 85, a few places from Shogun. That isn’t a ranking of quality. It’s a ranking of apples, oranges, and a reality competition.

Television isn’t one art form. A 22-episode network sitcom season, an 8-episode prestige drama, a 10-hour miniseries and a docuseries all face different constraints. Judging them on one scale rewards whatever the ranker happens to like most, and it hides the real comparisons that matter.

The single list also breaks down on its own terms. Breaking Bad is No. 1, and Better Call Saul is No. 27. You can prefer either one; I prefer Saul. But a 26-spot gap between two feels hard to justify. And The Americans at No. 17? There aren’t three better dramas this century, let alone sixteen.

So here’s my version: same era, separated by kind, scored on a 10-point scale.

The ground rules

• Like competes with like. Dramas, comedies, animated shows, anthologies, limited series and docuseries each get their own ranking.
• Classic sitcoms stand apart. Network-style sitcoms ran 20-plus episodes a year for years. That’s a different job than an 8-episode cable season, so they get their own list.
• A miniseries isn’t a series. A limited series can be exceptional, but it never has to sustain a story, survive cast changes or stick a landing years later. It’s ranked against other limited series.
• Anthologies are one show. Fargo, True Detective and the rest are judged on their whole run, not their best season. You can’t count True Detective’s first season and ignore the rest.
• The whole run counts. A great first season doesn’t carry a weak finish (House of Cards). A short run gets a small ding (Rome), and one-season shows are flagged as early grades.
• No reality or travel shows. Survivor, Drag Race, Bake Off and Bourdain are a different form entirely. They’d need their own list.
• Consistency over taste. Rank Breaking Bad or Better Call Saul first, but they belong next to each other.

Ties are listed together. A few shows straddle categories: The Bear and Shameless compete here as comedies, which is where the Emmys put them, and Orange Is the New Black as a drama.

Drama series

The Americans is the best drama of the century, and Better Call Saul is right behind it. Breaking Bad still makes the top ten, just not the top spot.

Comedy series

Veep and Silicon Valley share the top spot, with Curb a hair behind. Fleabag, No. 5 on the Times list, lands mid-pack here.

Sitcoms and sketch

These shows did a different job: long seasons, year after year, mostly on network TV. Scrubs and The Good Place tie for the top.

Animated series

BoJack Horseman leads a short list.

Anthologies

Fargo is the best anthology because it’s the most consistent. Judged on its whole run, True Detective falls to a tie for second; the Times only ranked its first season.

Limited series

John Adams and Band of Brothers tie at 9.9, as high as anything outside The Americans. That’s the point of a separate list: a miniseries can reach the top without ever having to sustain itself.

Docuseries

True crime dominates, and Making a Murderer edges out the others.

If you insist on one list: the combined 100

Every ranking starts with taste. I scored each show on how much I love it, and that part is personal: put Breaking Bad over Better Call Saul and I won’t argue. Then the same rules moved every show up or down, so run length and form count the same way for all of them.

The final list drops the scores. Taste sets the starting order, and the rules decide the rank. The Americans still finishes first, and Better Call Saul second. The rules:

• Limited series and docuseries rank as if they scored a quarter point lower. They can be as good as anything, but seven seasons of Mad Men beat one season of John Adams.
• When scores are equal, a show with three or more seasons beats a one- or two-season show.
• After that, drama beats comedy, and then the longer run wins.
• No ties. The three lowest are cut: Big Mouth and The Chair Company at 7.0, and Eastbound & Down at 7.2, which loses its tiebreak to Girls.

Here’s how far the rules moved some shows from where taste alone put them.

The full list:

What the categories reveal

Split by kind, the rankings make more sense. Veep at 9.5 doesn’t have to beat The Wire, and Band of Brothers doesn’t have to outlast Mad Men. Each one only has to beat its peers.

A few acclaimed shows are missing here because I haven’t seen enough to judge: The Leftovers, Mr. Robot, Friday Night Lights, I May Destroy You, The Comeback, Peaky Blinders, Justified, Reservation Dogs, It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Battlestar Galactica and The Shield.

The post Apples to Apples: Ranking 21st-Century TV the Fair Way appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

That’s one path. Maybe you win in the high 80’s.

Here we give another option.

This scenario assumes the front office reaches a harder set of conclusions this winter:

• Rogers isn’t coming back. He tests the market and someone pays him more than Baltimore will.
• They aren’t relying on Bautista and Helsley. One high-leverage arm gets acquired, whatever it costs.
• They don’t believe Beavers rebounds defensively.
• They want a plus glove in the outfield every day. Either an everyday left fielder who can really defend, or an everyday center fielder with Colton Cowser sliding back to left.
• They trade for a controllable starter. Another Shane Baz – quality arm, years of team control, acquired rather than signed.
• They’re done with Jackson Holliday at second base. He’s made available. Blaze Alexander is penciled in at second, with Jeremiah Jackson taking a bench spot.
• Westburg’s health gets settled in Sarasota. 
• Samuel Basallo catches 110 games and DHs 20. He’s the catcher, full stop.
• Mayo gets the bulk of the DH at-bats, which means he isn’t playing right field.
• They eat Tyler O’Neill’s contract. Sixteen and a half million dollars, released, gone.

That’s a substantially different team. Let’s build it.

What Changes First

Two of those premises cascade through everything else, and it’s worth seeing why before we start spending.

Basallo catching 110 games eliminates the Ryan Jeffers plan. In Scenario 1, Basallo catches 80 to 90 and the other 70-plus starts go to a $19 million co-starter. At 110, the backup catches roughly 50 and can be a $4 million veteran. That frees $15 million immediately.

It also opens the designated hitter spot, which is exactly what Mayo needs. Basallo takes 20 DH days instead of 50, Mayo takes the bulk of the rest, and the entire right-field problem from Scenario 1 disappears.

But Mayo at DH means right field is empty. Beavers is traded. O’Neill is released. Cowser is moving to left to accommodate the new center fielder. There is nobody in right.

So Scenario 2 doesn’t need one outfielder. It needs two.

The Moves Out

Jackson Holliday. The most consequential decision in this scenario, and the one I’d argue about. He’s 23 in December, controlled through 2030, and coming off a season where his exit velocity sat at 87.0 mph against a league mark of 88.8. The case for moving him is that the contact quality hasn’t improved in three years and Alexander is right there. The case against is that you’re selling the first overall pick at the absolute floor of his value.

If you’re trading him, trade him for something — he’s the headline piece in the package for the controllable starter, not a salary dump.

Dylan Beavers. A 25-year-old corner outfielder with a 24.1% chase rate, a 24.5% whiff rate, six home runs and -9 Outs Above Average. Somebody will buy the approach. In this scenario, the Orioles have decided the glove isn’t coming back and they’d rather be a year early than a year late.

Tyler O’Neill. Released, with $16.5 million eaten. This one costs money and saves nothing – it’s a roster spot, not a payroll move. You do it because a 94 wRC+ and a shoulder that won’t stay healthy shouldn’t block anyone.

Leody Taveras, Ryan Mountcastle, the Eflin option. Same housekeeping as Scenario 1.

And Trevor Rogers, but extend him the qualifying offer anyway. MLBTR projects it at $23.1 million. He’s said he’s excited to test the market and he’ll almost certainly decline – at which point Baltimore collects a pick just after the first round when he signs elsewhere.

The Moves In

Trade for the controllable arm

This is the centerpiece and it’s the hardest thing on the list, because controllable starting pitching is the most expensive commodity in the sport.

The Baz template is the right one: a quality arm with multiple years of control, acquired from a club that’s either rebuilding or has a surplus. Seattle has been the name floated on our board. Tampa Bay reloads this way constantly. Miami, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all have arms and needs.

The package starts with Holliday and Beavers – two young major league position players with control, which is exactly the currency that buys young pitching with control – plus prospects from the tier below the top. Not Anthony Eyanson, Joseph Dzierwa or Caden Hunter, but possibly guys like Trey Gibson, Boston Bateman, Luis De Leon.

Budget roughly $7 million for an arbitration-eligible starter’s salary.

Sign the plus glove in center

Daulton Varsho is the archetype, and he’s available.

He posted +7 Outs Above Average in center field in 2026, with a 91% catch rate against an 89% expectation. He’s played center essentially every day. And because Toronto traded him to Houston at the deadline, he isn’t qualifying-offer eligible — no draft pick, same as Skubal and Mize.

Be honest about what you’re buying. He hit .221/.281/.355 with 12 home runs, a 86.8 mph average exit velocity and a 6.8% barrel rate. His splits were bad in both directions, a .615 OPS against lefties and .644 against righties. FanGraphs wrote a piece this summer noting his sprint speed had fallen from the 28-29 range to 27.2 and his jumps had regressed to average. He turns 31 next season and finished the year on the injured list with wrist inflammation.

This is a glove-first signing at a lineup spot, and that’s the point. He made $10.75 million in 2026 and is coming off a .636 OPS. Two years and $24 million should get it done.

Cowser moves to left, where he’s better anyway, and Baltimore’s outfield defense improves in one move more than every idea in Scenario 1 combined.

Bring back Luis Robert Jr. for right field

Decline the $20 million option, pay the $2 million buyout, and re-sign him at $6 million with playing-time incentives.

Career line against left-handed pitching: .285/.360/.498. Gold Glove center fielder in 2020. Still running 28.9 ft/s. In a lineup that now has Basallo, Cowser, Henderson and Varsho all hitting left-handed, Robert is the right-handed bat that keeps the thing from falling apart against a good lefty – and he’s a plus defender in a corner.

The risk is the same as it was: roughly 113 games a year over four seasons, with a herniated disc and a hamstring in 2026.

Buy a high-leverage arm

We argued against going out and getting a high leverage reliever in Option 1.

Here we say go ahead and target one of Adrian Morejon or David Bednar, at roughly $14 million. Morejon is qualifying-offer eligible, so there’s a pick attached; Bednar isn’t the pitcher Morejon is but comes clean.

The argument for spending here, which I rejected last time, is simple in this scenario: if you’ve decided you can’t plan around Bautista’s shoulder and Helsley’s elbow, then you can’t plan around them. Helsley was shut down September 19th when his throwing program stalled. Bautista’s 2026 was a September cameo after two surgeries. Treating $18 million in committed salary as a bullpen is how you end up patching in June.

Bautista and Helsley become upside rather than relied on.

Sign a backup catcher and a starter

A veteran backup catcher at $4 million who can handle 50 starts and not be an automatic out. Carlos Narvarez finished with under a .500 OPS in 237 at-bats. If you don’t believe his bat rebounds (42 xbh’s in 2025), then go get someone you believe in a bit more. My guess is Narvarez is back.

And a free agent starter. Same conversation as Scenario 1: bid on Tarik Skubal, sign Casey Mize when that doesn’t work. Mize at 3 years and $54 million with an opt-out.

The Money

At $190 million against roughly $126 million committed, there’s about $64 million available.

$61 million, which lands payroll around $187 million.

That’s three million under Scenario 1, which is the part worth sitting with. Not signing Jeffers and not signing Rogers frees $40 million, and that $40 million buys a controllable starter, a closer, a Gold Glove center fielder and a backup catcher.

Swap Skubal in for Mize and it’s $78 million, or roughly $204 million in payroll.

And O’Neill’s $16.5 million is already inside the committed figure. Releasing him doesn’t cost anything new.

The 2027 Roster

Rotation: Mize (or Skubal), Bradish, Baz, Young, the traded-for arm

Bullpen: Morejon/Bednar, Cano, Rico Garcia, Wolfram, Sanders, Hoppe, Walker, with Bautista and Helsley as upside rather than plan

Against right-handed pitching: Basallo C, Alonso 1B, Alexander 2B, Westburg 3B, Henderson SS, Cowser LF, Varsho CF, Robert RF, Mayo DH

Against left-handed pitching: Basallo C, Alonso 1B, Alexander 2B, Westburg 3B, Henderson SS, 4th OF LF, Encarnacion-Strand DH, Robert CF, Mayo RF

Bench: backup catcher, Encarnacion-Strand, Jeremiah Jackson, a fourth outfielder

Thirteen position players: Basallo, the backup catcher, Alonso, Alexander, Westburg, Henderson, Mayo, Encarnacion-Strand, Cowser, Varsho, Robert, Jackson, and a fourth outfielder.

What Has To Go Right

Option 2 could be the more coherent plan. It’s also feels riskier.

Basallo catching 110 games. This deserves more scrutiny. The O’s have to decide how many games they want him catching. If the workload wears down his bat – which is the normal outcome for young catchers pushed to 110 games – you’ve degraded your best young hitter. If he gets hurt and misses real time you don’t have a great option behind him.

Alexander at second base every day. He hit .302 with a 120 wRC+ in 2026, which is why this feels safe. It isn’t. He ran a .385 BABIP, which is not a repeatable number. In this scenario is he a really good bench guy being asked to be a starter?

The offense gets worse. I think the first option we presented gives the O’s a better offense.  Here you are punting some offense to buy run prevention.

Westburg’s arm. If spring training reveals he can’t make the throw from third, he moves to second, and the chain resolves without much trouble: Alexander slides to third, where he started games in 2026 anyway, and Encarnacion-Strand and Mayo are both behind him. That’s three answers for one hole. Alexander started at six different positions last season, and being the piece that moves is arguably his best use.

With Holliday traded, the infield becomes almost entirely right-handed: Alonso, Alexander, Westburg, Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand, with only Henderson hitting from the left side. Cowser, Varsho and Basallo keep the overall lineup balanced, but there’s no left-handed answer left on the dirt.

Other thoughts.

Trading Holliday and Beavers for a controllable starter is swapping control for control, albeit less unless prospects also come back alongside the arm.

Do Holliday and Beavers by themselves land a good controllable starter? Two uncertain young position players with upside but questions. If they’re not enough, that’s when the O’s would have to add sweeteners.
Should also be noted that the positional depth thins out a bit if you trade both.

Also, have to think about the attrition rate of pitchers. Converting position-player control years into pitcher control years is a genuine transfer of risk, because pitchers break more often and more permanently. This organization needs no reminder of that.

None of that makes the trade wrong. It makes it a bet on a specific arm rather than a bet on a category. Get the evaluation right and Baltimore is deeper in 2029 than it is today.

Which One

Option 1 feels like the more likely plan to me. It keeps the young position players, it fixes the catching, and it gets Mayo his at-bats without giving anything up.

Option 2 might build a better baseball team. The bullpen adds a real weapon, and the outfield defense goes from a liability to a strength. If Basallo holds up and Alexander is real, that could be a 90 win team.

I said the priority should be building a team that looks like it should win 90 to 95 in March.

Do either of these options get you there?

The post The Orioles Off-Season; Early Thoughts – Option 2 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Some early thoughts on the off-season for the O’s.

The Diagnosis

The Orioles were average, literally average: 4.46 runs scored per game against a league mark of 4.48, a 101 OPS+, a 100 ERA+.

They finished five wins behind the 84-win White Sox for the last American League playoff spot.

Here’s where those five wins went.

They gave away outs. Baltimore converted .688 of balls in play into outs against a .699 league average. The Rays were at .724, the Dodgers .720, the Brewers .712. Spread an .011 gap across a full season’s worth of balls in play and you’re looking at something like 45 to 50 extra hits allowed. At roughly three-quarters of a run per hit-instead-of-out, that’s on the order of 30-plus runs, or about three wins.

Some of that is gloves. A lot of it is a staff that allowed too much hard contact, because defensive efficiency credits a defense for a lazy fly ball exactly the same as it does a diving stop. That distinction matters for where the money goes, and I’ll come back to it in Phase Four.

They had no one who could win a game by himself. Every team with a first-round bye has a Game 1 starter you’d pick against anybody: Misiorowski at 1.80, Messick at 2.56, Rasmussen at 2.67, Yamamoto at 2.53 with Skubal behind him. Even the Wild Card teams have Schlittler and Sale.

Baltimore had Brandon Young at 3.56, Rogers at 4.03, Baz at 4.11, Bradish at 4.12. That’s a functional rotation. It is not an edge. In a five-game series the better team wins about two-thirds of the time, and a true No. 1 is the closest thing to cheating those odds, because he pitches twice.

Bradish is undergoing surgery to repair a sports hernia, but should be fine for Spring Training. After pitching just 71.1 combined innings over 2024 and 2025, it shouldn’t be surprising to anyone that he looked tired down the stretch here in 2026. The important thing is that he logged 29 starts and 155 innings, and it’s completely reasonable to believe he takes a step towards being the ace he was pre-injuries in 2027.

And the money wasn’t the problem. Baltimore opened at $170 million, 16th in baseball, ahead of Milwaukee ($125M), Tampa Bay ($90M), the White Sox ($84M) and Cleveland ($70M). Three of those four earned byes.

Meanwhile the bar didn’t move. The AL East went .558 against everyone outside the division, the best mark of any division, and sent three teams to October. Its two Wild Cards won 93 and 87. The AL West went .424 against the other divisions and its champion finished 81-81.

Average is not the goal.

The priority for O’s General Manager Mike Elias should be building a team that looks like it should win 90-95 games come Spring Training.

What The Core Actually Projects To

Our estimate on what’s likely for this group in 2027:

Call it 13 to 15 wins from those six. Add Alonso at something near four, Henderson at three or three and a half in a bounce-back, Blaze Alexander at a win and a half, and the position-player group projects somewhere in the low twenties.

That is a playoff-caliber offense. Not a great one. A sufficient one.

Basallo’s best case is a 5-WAR All-Star catcher and Cowser’s is a 4.5-WAR center fielder, but more likely is a group of two-to-three win regulars.

Every Available Dollar Goes To Run Prevention, Not The Offense

The bats are already here, they’re cheap, and they’re controlled. What isn’t here is the pitching and the defense that turned Cleveland’s $70 million and Tampa Bay’s $90 million into byes.

There’s a warning in Baltimore’s own history on this. Through the 2023 preseason the Orioles had the No. 1 farm system four years running, with eight Top 100 prospects. Six were position players: Henderson, Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Kjerstad, Ortiz. Two were pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Both pitchers have since been traded, and Hall just posted a 1.91 ERA in Milwaukee’s bullpen in October.

The system is back to No. 7 with four Top 100 prospects, and this time three of them are arms: Anthony Eyanson, Joseph Dzierwa and Caden Hunter.

Do not trade those three.

The playoff field makes the case better than I can. The four teams with byes had the four best average farm rankings in the entire field, and three of them did it on bottom-four payrolls: Cleveland at $70 million, Tampa Bay at $90 million, Milwaukee at $125 million. The Dodgers are the only club doing both at once, and they’re back at No. 1 in the system rankings even after trading two Top 100 prospects for Skubal.

The teams that spent big and let the system thin out are the ones who had to survive a best-of-three. Houston has ranked 29th on five straight lists and spent $246 million to go 81-81. San Diego is 30th. The Cubs have traded away 15 players who now appear on other clubs’ Top 30 lists and fell from eighth to 28th in eighteen months. The Yankees went 13th to 27th.

Two things are true about that at once, and the second one matters for Baltimore. Those trades are also what built the bullpens and lineups those teams brought to October. They got in. What they don’t have is cushion. So “trade prospects” isn’t wrong – it’s a bill that comes due later, and a team that has finished fourth two years running while sitting on a top-ten system is exactly the team that should be willing to pay it.

Pay it from the surplus. Position players, depth arms, blocked bats. Not the three pitchers.

One more line from the ledger, since it settles an argument I was having with myself in August: Boston fell ten spots, from 14th to 24th, after sending three of its six best prospects to Baltimore for Adley Rutschman. That same deal moved the Orioles from 13th to seventh. Whatever else is true about that trade, Elias got paid.

The Blueprint

Phase One: Housekeeping, before December 1st

The CBA expires at 11:59 p.m. on December 1st and a lockout is widely expected. Everything in this section is free and has to happen regardless, so do it early.

• Decline Luis Robert Jr.’s $20 million option and take the $2 million buyout — then try to bring him back cheaper. See Phase Four.
• Decline Ryan Mountcastle’s $7.5 million option.
• Decline the Eflin mutual option, $2 million buyout, and leave the door open on an incentive deal.
• Non-tender Leody Taveras in his third arbitration year.
• Tender Henderson, Bautista, Westburg and Cowser.
• Assume Helsley opts in at $14 million. He will.

That leaves roughly $126 million committed once the roster is filled out.

Phase Two: Buy the top of the rotation

This is the whole offseason. Everything else is a supporting move.

The swing: Tarik Skubal is not qualifying-offer eligible, because he was traded in-season. No draft pick, just money. If there is one winter to find out whether this front office will actually convert payroll flexibility into a player, it’s the one where the best pitcher alive comes without a compensation tax.

Be clear-eyed about the odds. The Dodgers sent two Top 100 prospects to Detroit for him, he put up a 2.36 FIP in ten starts for them, and they are back to the No. 1 farm system in baseball anyway. A two-time defending champion that just paid that price and still has the game’s deepest rotation is not letting him walk quietly. Baltimore would be bidding against the sport’s biggest checkbook* for a player that checkbook already traded prospects to acquire.

*(Maybe that is no longer the case?)

Bid anyway. Make him turn you down.

More realistically: Casey Mize, whom CBS has already identified Baltimore as a landing spot for. The projected contract is in Phase Six.

And either way, re-sign Trevor Rogers. He’s 28, he’s had success here, he’s said he wants to stay, and the Orioles are not obtaining two pitchers better than him. A rotation of Mize, Rogers, Bradish, Baz and Young is a real one. Add Skubal instead of Mize and it’s outstanding.

Phase Three: Don’t spend another dollar on the bullpen

This is the phase where I’ve already changed my mind.

If Orioles owner David Rubenstein gives Elias an unlimited checkbook, sure, go get an Adrian Morejon or a David Bednar.

Assuming there are limits to what Rubenstein will spend, I think you’ve got to look to allocate these would-be dollars elsewhere.

The money is already spent. Ryan Helsley will opt in at $14 million. Félix Bautista is in his final arbitration year at something like $4 million. That is roughly $18 million allocated to two high-leverage arms before anyone signs anything.

Neither is a comfortable bet. Helsley’s season was wrecked twice – the injured list in May, a brief return in June, a reaggravation, and then a shutdown on September 19th when the throwing program stalled. Bautista got back to the majors in September, which is genuinely encouraging after two shoulder surgeries, but it’s a September cameo, not a body of work.

The one real piece of good news is that Helsley’s MRI showed an intact UCL. No Tommy John. He spends the winter rehabbing with a target of being cleared by February.

Nobody should love relying on that. Here’s the argument for doing it anyway, and it’s stronger than “the money’s committed.”

Relief pitching is the one need with a reliable in-season solution.

High-leverage bullpen arms are the single most available commodity at every trade deadline, every year, in quantity. Half the sport sells them.

So the December problems and the July problems are different problems. Solve the ones that only December can solve.

Add to that what’s already in the building: Yennier Cano is signed for two more years at $7.5 million total and posted a 3.22 ERA with a 2.71 FIP. Grant Wolfram ran a 2.85 FIP behind an ugly ERA. Cam Sanders had a 2.28 FIP. Alex Hoppe hasn’t given up an earned run. Rico Garcia made 68 appearances.

That’s not a finished bullpen. It’s enough to open the season with, and it’s enough to see whether Bautista and Helsley are real before committing another $12 million to the most volatile asset class in the sport.

Milwaukee had ten different pitchers record a save this year. Depth, not names.

Everyone is going to want Morejon and Bednar, and both will have spent October pitching in high leverage for contenders – Morejon in what may be the deepest bullpen in the field in San Diego, Bednar closing for the Yankees. Both clubs will bid to keep them. Baltimore would be paying a premium, plus a draft pick in Morejon’s case, for the privilege of stacking a third expensive arm behind two it’s already committed to.

The money you potentially save here might be the difference between settling at the top of the rotation and not. Those are the same dollars. More on that in Phase Six.

Phase Four: The outfield, and the Mayo question

The current expectation inside the organization is that they’ll try to find regular at-bats for Coby Mayo in right field. He has the arm, he moves adequately, and 21 homers have to go somewhere.

Installing a converted third baseman in a corner runs against everything else in this plan. But do the at-bat accounting and the objection mostly collapses.

Where else does Mayo play?

• First base. Alonso is there for 150 games. That’s maybe a dozen starts.
• Third base. Westburg, if healthy. His likely case is 110-120 games, which leaves 45 or so — and Encarnacion-Strand and Blaze Alexander both want those, and both are better defenders there than Mayo is.
• Designated hitter. This is where it really breaks down. Basallo needs 60 to 70 DH days if he’s catching 80-90. O’Neill needs DH days. Encarnacion-Strand needs DH days.

Add it up and Mayo gets somewhere around 65 to 80 starts without an outfield glove. Call it 300 plate appearances for a 24 year old with a 91.5 mph exit velocity, a 48.5% hard-hit rate, four years of control, and real second-half progression.

That’s not a roster decision. That’s waste.

His position is “bat.” Right field is the only door wide enough to get him 450-500 plate appearances, and getting him those plate appearances is worth something real.

So I’ll concede the move and hold onto the consequence: he is likely below average out there, which means the outfield defense probably does not improve in 2027 and may get worse. That has to be paid for somewhere, and I’ll come back to where.

The mitigation you’d want is exactly the obvious one – pull him for a defender in close-and-late situations. It isn’t a full fix. You’re recovering maybe a quarter of his defensive innings. But those innings are the highest-leverage ones on the schedule, so the value is worth more than the raw count suggests, and it costs nothing but a roster spot.

Beavers gets left field, and the Orioles hope the glove comes back. That’s the likely plan. Is it defensible? Here’s what the Statcast record actually says:

Two things jump out, and they point in opposite directions.

The discouraging one: 2025 was the smaller sample. Sixty-nine attempts is about a third of a season’s workload, and OAA is noisy at that size. The -9 this year came in 182 attempts. And the gap is identical in both corners, -5% in left and -5% in right, which undercuts the “he was out of position” explanation.

The encouraging one: He ran 28.9 ft/s this year, 88th percentile, with a plus arm. OAA for a corner outfielder is mostly jumps and routes, not raw speed. A player whose athleticism is intact while his outs aren’t is failing at the coachable part. That’s a very different problem from a slow outfielder who simply can’t get there.

So: Beavers in left, with a real contingency rather than as an article of faith.

The bigger issue is what this outfield looks like against left-handed pitching. Cowser bats left-handed and has struggled against lefties. Beavers bats left-handed. Basallo bats left-handed. Mayo demolished lefties beautifully. Encarnacion-Strand crushed LHP, and I expect him back in part for that. O’Neill was hitting LHP this year before his most recent injury.

So you want a platoon right-handed outfielder who hits left-handed pitching and can cover center or left. Someone who can give both Cowser and Beavers a day against tough lefties without the defense collapsing, or replace Mayo in right field in close-and-late situations.

A right-handed hitter who can genuinely play center field, handles lefties, and doesn’t need to face righties.

Which describes Luis Robert Jr., who was on this roster for four days in September.

You can’t have him back at $20 million. At $5-8 million there’s real value. His career line against left-handed pitching is .285/.360/.498, he won a Gold Glove in center field in 2020, and he ran 28.9 ft/s this season. That’s the right-handed bat against lefties and the late-inning glove for Mayo in one roster spot.

The risk is availability – he’s averaged roughly 113 games a year over four seasons, and a herniated disc and a hamstring are exactly the injuries that eat a center fielder’s range. Sign him at the bottom of that band with playing-time incentives, and keep a glove-first depth outfielder at Norfolk who can actually cover center.

Going back to Mayo and team defense overall. If the 2027 outfield is Beavers coming off -9 OAA in left, Mayo converting from third base in right, and one proven glove in center, the defensive gains are not coming from out there.

Which means they have to come from somewhere else, and there are only two places left: the infield and the rotation.

The infield can get better on its own. Westburg at third for a full season is an upgrade over the Mayo/Encarnacion-Strand/Alexander rotation.

The rotation is the one you pay for. It can be reasonably argued that a team that concedes outfield defense by design needs its pitching to be better than “Mize and Rogers.” Every ball that isn’t put in play is a ball Mayo doesn’t have to catch. Which is the strongest case for going after Skubal.

Phase Five: A catcher who actually plays

A conventional backup doesn’t solve this.

The Orioles are not likely to give Basallo 110-plus starts behind the plate, and shouldn’t — he’s 23, he’s 6-foot-4, and his bat is too valuable to grind down. But if he’s catching 80 to 90 games, the other 70-plus can’t go to an automatic out. Carlos Narváez hit .083 over 69 plate appearances and finished under a .500 OPS in 237 at-bats. To be fair, he did have 42 extra-base hits in 2025.

What’s needed is closer to a 1A/1B than a platoon: a catcher who can start 70 games, catch well, and hit enough to bat seventh without the lineup collapsing.

Ryan Jeffers is that player. Tenth-best free agent in this class per CBS Sports, 29 years old, an .814 OPS this year, and productive against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. Quality catchers essentially never reach the open market. What he’ll cost is in Phase Six.

Phase Six: Make the money fit

At $190 million against roughly $126 million committed, there’s about $64 million to spend. Five line items, because Phase Three removed the sixth.

The realistic version, with actual contract projections rather than round numbers:

$66 million — the Robert buyout is a separate $2 million already inside the committed figure — which lands the payroll at roughly $192 million.

That’s a rotation of Mize, Rogers, Bradish, Baz and Young, a catching tandem that doesn’t donate a lineup spot, and a fourth outfielder who gives you a right-handed answer against lefties. It’s a good winter. It probably wins 87.

The version that’s actually worth having

• Tarik Skubal — roughly $35M
• Trevor Rogers — $21M
• Ryan Jeffers — $19M
• Robert Jr. and a depth outfielder — $8M

$83 million, which puts payroll near $209 million.

And the trade lever is still there, unspent. You’d have the internal depth to address in-season needs that arise. Not looking to trade Eyanson, Dzierwa or Hunter. But others could certainly be available.

Where those numbers come from:

Mize, 3 years / $54 million with an opt-out. He’s a former No. 1 overall pick who turns 30 in May and opened 2026 looking like an ace. Then San Diego traded for him and he posted a 7.46 ERA over 44.2 innings, gave up 21 earned runs in 21.2 innings in September, and finished on the injured list with a sprained ankle. Full season: a 3.96 ERA over 131.1 innings. He also has Tommy John in his past, missed all of 2023, and had a groin stint this year. The going comps are Luis Severino at 3 years and $67 million and Sean Manaea at 3 and $75 million, and Mize’s second half says he doesn’t reach either. The opt-out is the bridge: it’s how a pitcher who believes in his first half signs with a team that watched his second. His Baseball Savant page doesn’t look that attractive.  His overall numbers with the Padres were poor obviously, including 13 homers allowed in those 44.2 innings.  He’s a flyball-heavy pitcher, with below-average swing-and-miss capabilities. Despite that, 3 years $54M looks pretty realistic to me. His 16 starts with Detroit were excellent. He showed consistent release points across his 5 pitch mix, and ability to paint the edges. If the O’s go after him, they’ll be of the belief that his first half can be replicated if they adjust his pitch sequencing. In the current landscape, $18M is the baseline rate for a mid-rotation starter.

Rogers, 4 years / $84 million. He finished with a 4.03 ERA over 169.2 innings and 30 starts with a 3.64 FIP and about 3.3 fWAR. Over 43 starts as an Oriole he’s at a 3.35 ERA and a 3.31 FIP. There were more hits allowed and a much higher home run rate in ’26, but he’s a left-hander entering his age 29 season with 170 innings in the thinnest starting pitching market in years. Yusei Kikuchi got 3 and $63 million at 34. Rogers is five years younger. If two clubs engage, this goes to five years and past $100 million.

Jeffers, 4 years / $76 million. He posted a 128 wRC+ in 2026, which is remarkable for a catcher, and he’s the best one available in a class Minnesota’s own beat writers describe as underwhelming. Bidding is expected to be aggressive, with the Yankees an obvious suitor after Austin Wells’s season. J.T. Realmuto’s 3 years and $45 million last winter is the floor comp, and Realmuto was five years older. The caution: a mid-May hamate fracture cost Jeffers two months and held him to 92 games.

And the draft pick math, which I’d left out entirely.

Rogers is qualifying-offer eligible – MLBTR projects the QO at $23.1 million. Jeffers is expected to get one from Minnesota too, and Morejon is eligible as well.

Extend Rogers the qualifying offer no matter what. He’s said he’s excited to test the market and is unlikely to accept, but if he does, the Orioles get a 3 WAR starter for one year at $23 million with no long-term risk. If (when) he declines and signs elsewhere, Baltimore collects a pick just after the first round. That’s the same mechanism that produced Wehiwa Aloy when Anthony Santander left.

So: signing Jeffers costs a pick, Rogers departing returns one. Roughly a wash. The version where Baltimore keeps Rogers and signs Jeffers is the one that costs a pick outright, and it’s still the right move.

One scheduling note that matters more than usual. The Orioles get five days of exclusive negotiating rights after the World Series, and the lockout arrives December 1st. If they want Rogers, you would like to make it happen in that window. Maybe not realistic, with Rogers surely wanting to test the market at this point.

What You Don’t Do

Don’t trade Gunnar Henderson. Two years of control, coming off the worst season of his career, is selling at the bottom. Run it back. If he rebounds and the team doesn’t, you move him next summer exactly the way you moved Rutschman.

Don’t trade Holliday or Mayo for prospects. Holliday’s value has never been lower and he’s 23 in December with control through 2030. Mayo hit 21 homers with a 91.5 mph exit velocity and has four arbitration years left. Neither of those is a sell-high. Some people are willing to just give Holliday away at this point and install Alexander – or Westburg, if his arm can’t handle third – at second. I don’t like Holliday’s baseball instincts, but I just can’t see giving him away when his value is at a low. I’d rather run it back and hope the light bulb goes fully on. Would expect more power next spring, a full year removed from his surgery.

Don’t buy offense. Not a bat, not a DH, not a corner outfielder signed for his OPS. The lineup projects to be sufficient. Runs allowed is the problem.

Don’t sign a closer. You’re already paying two of them. Use the money you’d hypothetically spend there on a starter.

The 2027 Roster This Produces

Rotation: Mize (or Skubal), Rogers, Bradish, Baz, Young

Bullpen: Cano, Rico Garcia, Wolfram, Sanders, Hoppe, Walker, plus Bautista and Helsley

Against right-handed pitching: Basallo C, Alonso 1B, Holliday 2B, Westburg 3B, Henderson SS, Beavers LF, Cowser CF, Mayo RF, Jeffers DH

Against left-handed pitching: Jeffers C, Alonso 1B, Alexander 2B, Westburg 3B, Henderson SS, O’Neill LF, Robert Jr. CF, Mayo RF, Encarnacion-Strand DH

Bench: whichever of Basallo/Jeffers isn’t starting, Alexander, Cowser or Beavers against lefties, Encarnacion-Strand, O’Neill, Robert Jr.

That’s 13 position players and it’s tight: Basallo, Jeffers, Alonso, Holliday, Alexander, Westburg, Henderson, Mayo, Cowser, Beavers, Robert, O’Neill, Encarnacion-Strand. The glove-first depth outfielder is Norfolk insurance rather than an Opening Day lock, which is fine – you’d want him the week O’Neill’s shoulder or Robert’s back acts up, and one of them probably will.

I said above the priority for Elias should be building a team that looks like it should win 90-95 games come Spring Training.

Is that this team? Maybe not.

It does look like a team you can argue into the high 80s with normal health, primarily with Henderson rebounding, and into the low 90s if two of Basallo, Cowser and Westburg reach their best case rather than their likely one.

There are multiple ways to build a team. This path is one option.

Next time we’ll look at scenarios where there is more wholesale change, and what that could look like.

The post The Orioles Off-Season; Early Thoughts appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.