Jackson Holliday — 2B, bats L, turns 23 in December

Where he is: 92 games, 328 plate appearances, .232/.309/.349, seven homers, eight steals. An 87 wRC+ and an 89 OPS+. 0.6 fWAR, 0.4 bWAR.

The case file: First overall pick in 2022. Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year. Struck out 33.2% of the time as a 20-year-old in 2024, then cut it to 21.6% in 2025, the second-largest year-over-year improvement in baseball. Played 149 games in ’25 and hit .242/.314/.375 with 17 homers and 17 steals.

He fixed the strikeouts. He didn’t fix the impact, and this year the impact got worse. His average exit velocity is 87.0 mph against a league mark of 88.8. His hard-hit rate is 34.3% against a league mark of 38.6%. His barrel rate is 6.9%. He is hitting the ball on the ground 44% of the time with a .118 ISO. The hamate injury is part of that and hamates historically cost a hitter power for the better part of a year, but there was no power surplus to lose.

The encouraging piece: a 26.2% chase rate, a 10.4% walk rate, and 28.8 ft/s sprint speed, 87th percentile. The approach and the athleticism are both real. And his .301 xwOBA against a .292 wOBA says he’s earned roughly what he’s gotten. There’s no hidden season here.

Career: .232, 29 homers, three seasons. Under control through 2030.

2027 Best Case — Fully past the hamate, age-23 season, and the exit velocity climbs into league-average territory, which is all he needs given the approach and the speed. .265/.345/.430, 18-20 homers, 15-20 steals, plus defense at second. 3.5-4.0 WAR and a first All-Star nod.

2027 Worst Case — A third straight season around .230/.310/.350. The contact quality stays 30th percentile, meaning there’s no production waiting to be unlocked. He loses time to Blaze Alexander and finishes under 1.0 WAR, and the Orioles spend the following winter taking calls.

2027 Likely — .250/.330/.390, 12-15 homers, 15 steals, roughly a 100 wRC+, 2.0-2.5 WAR as the everyday second baseman. Real improvement, no leap.

Career Best Case — Four or five All-Star-adjacent seasons in his late twenties, peaking around .285/.370/.450 with 20 homers and 25 steals. Something like Ozzie Albies with better strike-zone judgment. 30-35 career WAR.

Career Worst Case — He never slugs .400. A defensively adequate second baseman with a .330 OBP and no thump becomes a utility man at 29. 8-12 career WAR, three or four organizations, and a permanent spot on lists of draft busts he doesn’t entirely deserve.

Career Likely — A good, long career that isn’t a star’s career. Ten-plus years as a regular, 2-3 WAR annually, around .255/.335/.395, maybe one All-Star selection, 20-25 career WAR.

Coby Mayo — 3B/1B/DH, bats R, 24

Where he is: 116 games, 385 plate appearances, .224/.288/.460, 21 homers, a 109 wRC+ and a 105 OPS+. 1.5 fWAR, 0.6 bWAR. He homered twice against Cleveland on September 7th.

The case file: A fourth-round pick in 2020 who became an elite power prospect, and the power is now unambiguously playing. 91.5 mph average exit velocity, a 48.5% hard-hit rate, a 13.0% barrel rate, a .236 ISO. He pulls the ball 49.8% of the time and puts 35.5% of it in the air. That is a home-run hitter’s profile, in the majors, right now.

Two things to be honest about. First, there’s no luck story left: his .322 xwOBA sits essentially on top of his .323 wOBA. What you see is what he’s earned. Second, the strikeouts remain the whole question — 31.7% on the season with a 31.0% whiff rate. And the platoon split is severe, with the large majority of his damage coming against left-handers.

Through his first 646 big league plate appearances he hit .207/.282/.390 with an 89 wRC+. Since the All-Star break he’s been one of the two or three best hitters on the team.

One option year left. Cheap through roughly 2031.

2027 Best Case — The second half was the real player. 550 plate appearances, .255/.325/.510, 32-35 homers, a 130 wRC+, strikeouts down near 28%. 3.5 WAR and Silver Slugger votes at DH or first base.

2027 Worst Case — The splits calcify, he’s unplayable against right-handers, the whiff rate climbs back over 33%, and he’s a strong-side platoon bat with 350 plate appearances and under 1.0 WAR. Or he’s the centerpiece going out for pitching and hits 30 somewhere else.

2027 Likely — 450-500 plate appearances leaning on matchups. .240/.305/.475, 26-30 homers, a 110-115 wRC+, 1.5-2.0 WAR. Genuinely productive and genuinely flawed at once.

Career Best Case — Six to eight years as a 35-homer middle-of-the-order bat, two or three All-Star appearances, a 4-WAR peak. 20-25 career WAR, 250-plus homers.

Career Worst Case — The strikeouts against right-handed pitching never come down, and he’s a platoon slugger who bounces between four organizations. 500-600 games, 5-8 WAR, 90 homers.

Career Likely — A ten-year big leaguer with a defined role. 180-220 career homers, a career line near .240/.310/.460, 15-20 WAR. A real power bat, not a franchise cornerstone.

Samuel Basallo — C/1B/DH, bats L, 22

Where he is: 102 games, 367 plate appearances, .230/.300/.420, 17 homers, a 102 wRC+ and a 101 OPS+. 1.8 bWAR but only 1.0 fWAR, one of the widest splits on the roster,

The case file: Still the most valuable long-term asset of these five, and it isn’t close.

Signed out of Santo Domingo in January 2021. Reached Triple-A at 20 and hit .270/.377/.590 with 23 homers in 76 games. Debuted August 17, 2025, and five days later signed an eight-year, $67 million extension running through 2033, with a 2034 club option at $18 million and a $7 million buyout. It maxes at $88.5 million and was the largest pre-arbitration deal ever given to a catcher. He makes $1 million a year through 2028, then $4M, $7M, $11M, $15M, $15M. With the option, he isn’t a free agent until he’s 30.

The contact quality supports him: 90.5 mph exit velocity, a 43.0% hard-hit rate, a 12.7% barrel rate, and a .323 xwOBA against a .313 wOBA. He has been slightly unlucky, not lucky.

Two flags. His 39.4% chase rate is the highest among Orioles regulars by a wide margin and is the thing standing between a .300 OBP and a .350 one. And his sprint speed is 24.8 ft/s, fifth percentile in baseball, which matters for the question of where a 6-foot-4 catcher ends up if he has to move off the position.

All of that, at 22, with a 102 wRC+ and 17 homers. Catchers who do this at 21 and 22 become stars at a high rate.

2027 Best Case — The chase rate drops five points and everything follows. .270/.340/.500, 28-30 homers, a 135 wRC+, receiving grades to average, 110 games caught. 4.5-5.0 WAR and an All-Star selection.

2027 Worst Case — The chase rate holds, the OBP stays under .300, and the defense pushes him to first base and DH. .235/.295/.440 with 22 homers and 1.0 WAR. A fine age-23 season, but if the O’s are committed to him playing only 80 or so games behind the plate, that causes other roster construction discussions.

2027 Likely — .250/.315/.460, 24-27 homers, a 115 wRC+, 3.0-3.5 WAR splitting catcher and DH.

Career Best Case — A perennial All-Star catcher with multiple 5-6 WAR seasons, a 35-homer peak, and down-ballot MVP finishes. 40-50 career WAR and one of the five best contracts in the sport by 2030.

Career Worst Case — The bat plays and the position doesn’t, and the fifth-percentile speed means there’s nowhere to hide him but DH. A designated hitter with a .310 OBP by 25. Still a big leaguer for a long time; the surplus value evaporates. 15-20 career WAR.

Career Likely — A very good catcher for a decade. 3-4 WAR most years, two or three All-Star teams, 250-plus homers, 30-35 WAR, and by 2029 the extension is one of the reasons the Orioles are competitive again.

Dylan Beavers — LF/RF, bats L, 25

Where he is: 89 games, 295 plate appearances, .244/.323/.382, six homers, 18 doubles, a 101 wRC+ and a 100 OPS+. 0.1 fWAR, 0.0 bWAR.

The case file: The 33rd pick in 2022 out of Cal, signed for $2.2 million. Baseball America’s grades: hit 40, power 60, run 60, field 55, arm 60. He hit .304/.420/.515 with 15 homers and 31 steals at Norfolk in 2025.

The approach might be the best of this group. A 24.1% chase rate and a 24.5% whiff rate, both comfortably better than league average, with a 9.8% walk rate. That skill is major-league quality today.

Everything else is a problem. The 60-grade power has produced six homers and a .137 ISO, on an 88.2 mph exit velocity and a 7.0% barrel rate. The 60-grade speed has produced five steals in ten attempts despite 28.9 ft/s sprint speed, 88th percentile. And the defense, which I gave him credit for last time based on the scouting reports, has graded out at -4 in LF, -3 in RF, and -1 in CF per OAA. He does run and throw at high levels. He also graded perfectly adequate defensively in 2025, which would make you think ’26 has largely been a defensive slump for some reason, and not definitively who he is with the glove.

He’s also 25, with a .301 xwOBA against a .313 wOBA, meaning he’s been slightly fortunate, not unlucky. Under team control through 2031.

2027 Best Case — The power arrives at 26, which happens for tall left-handed hitters more often than people think, and the outfield defense regresses toward the scouting grade rather than the 2026 measurement. .265/.355/.450, 20 homers, 15 steals, a 120 wRC+. 3.0 WAR.

2027 Worst Case — .235/.320/.370 with eight homers and negative defensive value. A corner outfielder whose only carrying skill is not swinging at bad pitches doesn’t hold a job when Azocar, Booth, and Irish arrive. Under 0.5 WAR.

2027 Likely — .250/.335/.410, 12-15 homers, a 105 wRC+, roughly neutral defense. 1.0-1.5 WAR as a strong-side platoon corner outfielder.

Career Best Case — Five or six years as a .265/.360/.450 everyday corner outfielder with one 25-homer season. 18-22 career WAR.

Career Worst Case — The classic good-approach, no-impact corner bat, and the glove doesn’t save him. .240/.320/.380 across six to eight years as a fourth outfielder. 3-6 career WAR.

Career Likely — Useful for a long time without ever being important. 9-13 career WAR, 80 ish career homers. Ideally more of a platoon player vs. a regular starter.

Colton Cowser — CF/LF, bats L, 26

Where he is: 128 games, 347 plate appearances, .215/.306/.368, 13 homers, a 93 wRC+ and a 92 OPS+. 1.5 fWAR, 2.1 bWAR, with +4.9 Def.

The case file: The fifth overall pick in 2021 and the hardest of these five to read.

In 2024 he hit .242/.321/.447 with 24 homers, a 119 wRC+, and 3.9 fWAR, and lost the AL Rookie of the Year award to Luis Gil by two first-place votes. Then 2025: thumb, rib, and concussion injuries limited him to 92 games and he hit .196/.269/.385 with a 35.6% strikeout rate, bottom one percent of baseball. This year the strikeout rate is 30.3% with a 32.4% whiff rate. Better. Still bad.

His .319 xwOBA sits 18 points above his .301 actual wOBA, the biggest such gap among Orioles regulars. His hard-hit rate is 40.8% and his barrel rate is 10.4%, both above league average. He has been the unluckiest hitter on this team, and there is a better season sitting underneath these numbers than the batting average suggests.

Add the defense and you have a player whose floor is higher than a .215 hitter’s floor normally is.

Arbitration-eligible this winter. Free agent after 2029.

2027 Best Case — The batted-ball luck normalizes and the contact gains from this August hold. .245/.335/.450, 24 homers, 15 steals, a 118 wRC+, plus center field defense. 4.5-5.0 WAR and he’s in the running for being one of the best all-around players on the roster.

2027 Worst Case — The strikeout rate goes back over 33% and even good defense can’t rescue an 85 wRC+. 1.0 WAR, then a non-tender or a salary-dump trade in his second arbitration year.

2027 Likely — .230/.320/.415, 18-20 homers, a 105 wRC+, carried by the glove to 2.5-3.0 WAR. A good everyday center fielder whose value comes more from defense than offense, and who will frustrate everyone watching him hit.

Career Best Case — 2024 was real and his age 27-30 seasons deliver. Three or four 4-WAR seasons, a Gold Glove, 150-plus career homers, 25-30 career WAR.

Career Worst Case — The swing-and-miss wins. A defensive-replacement fourth outfielder by 29, finishing around 10-12 career WAR with 2024 as the one good season people bring up as a what if?

Career Likely — Five more years as an above-average defensive OF with a streaky, low-average, real-power bat. 2-3 WAR annually, 18-22 career WAR. Consistently more valuable to his employer than he looks to the people in the stands.

Jordan Westburg — 3B/2B, bats R, 27 (28 in February)

Where he is: Nowhere. He has not played a game in 2026 and won’t.

The case file: The 30th pick in 2020 out of Mississippi State, debuted in June 2023, and the only player on this list who has already been an All-Star.

The production, when he’s on the field, has been very encouraging. The inability to stay available has been disheartening.

• 2024: 107 games, .264/.312/.480, 18 homers, 63 RBI, All-Star. A season ended by a fractured hand.
• 2025: 85 games, .265 with 17 homers and 41 RBI. Hamstring, left index finger, right ankle.
• 2026: Zero games.

Career: .264 with 38 homers in 260 games across three seasons. Eighteen homers in 107 games is a 27-homer pace. Seventeen in 85 games is a 32-homer pace. The power has been trending up the whole time, and he’s a legitimately good defender at third base who can also handle second.

Here’s the whole projection in one sentence: he has never played 110 games in a season, and now he’s had Tommy John.

He was diagnosed with a partial UCL tear in his right elbow in February, took a PRP injection to try to avoid the knife, was shut down from throwing in early May when the discomfort came back, and had the surgery on May 13th with Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Elias said afterward that the delay cost nothing on the 2027 timeline and that Westburg being “back as a full player in the early part of 2027 is very much in play.” Westburg said in June that if he gets a normal spring, he thinks he’ll be ready.

Position players come back from UCL surgery much faster than pitchers, and the bat generally comes back intact. This is not the same risk profile as a pitcher’s Tommy John. But the surgery date puts him roughly nine months out at the start of spring training, which is cutting it close, and the arm strength question is real for a third baseman specifically.

Under club control through 2029.

2027 Best Case — Normal spring, opens on time, and finally gets the season he’s been chasing. 140 games, .270/.330/.470, 25 homers, plus defense at third. 4.0-4.5 WAR and a second All-Star nod.

2027 Worst Case — The elbow isn’t right in February, he opens on the IL, the arm strength doesn’t come all the way back, and he’s a 100-game DH-and-second-base guy. Or another unrelated injury, because that’s now four straight years. Under 1.0 WAR and the Orioles have to decide what he is with two years of control left.

2027 Likely — He’s back by April or May and plays 110-120 games at .265/.325/.450 with 20 homers and good defense. 2.5-3.0 WAR. The production when available is good; the availability is the question.

Career Best Case — He finally strings together health at 28-31 and puts up three or four seasons of 4-plus WAR with 25-30 homers and good third base defense. Two more All-Star teams, a big free agent contract after 2029. 25-30 career WAR.

Career Worst Case — The elbow lingers, the arm forces him off third, and he becomes a second baseman and DH who plays 90 games a year. He’s a useful player nobody can count on, changes teams twice, and finishes around 12-15 career WAR with everyone remembering the 2024 first half.

Career Likely — A very good hitter who plays 115 games a year. 2.5-3.5 WAR annually in the seasons he’s mostly available, 20-25 homers, a strong free agent case after 2029 that some team pays for. 20-25 career WAR.

The post Best Case, Worst Case, Likely appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Entering tonight in Colorado, the Orioles are 68-69, 4th in the AL East, and one game behind Cleveland for the 3rd Wild Card.

One game under .500 for the first time since April 30th.

Seven wins in their last nine. 5-1 on the road trip with three to play in Denver.

Baseball Reference now puts their post-season odds at 23%. FanGraphs has their odds at 21%.

On August 4th, the day after the Deadline, the FanGraphs projection was 12%.

SI’s betting roundup had the O’s as the biggest mover in the league last week, from +500 to +310 to reach October.

They’re 16th in the Power Rankings at CBS Sports, 14th at MLB.com, and 14th at FanGraphs.

The Schedule

The remaining schedule is:

• 8/31 – 9/2 at Colorado
• 9/3 – 9/6 vs. Boston
• 9/7 – 9/9 vs. Cleveland
• 9/11 – 9/13 at Toronto
• 9/14 – 9/16 at the Mets
• 9/18 – 9/20 vs. Milwaukee
• 9/21 – 9/23 vs. Toronto
• 9/25 – 9/27 at the Yankees

Sixteen of the 25 come against the AL East or Cleveland. Thirteen at home, twelve on the road.

Six games come against Colorado (52-85) and the Mets (61-76), who are the two worst teams they’ll see.

Three come against Milwaukee, who at 85-52 has the best record in baseball.

And six against Toronto, who at 68-70 is a half-game behind the O’s and chasing the same spot.

The Cleveland series, September 7th-9th at Camden Yards, is also circled. Three games, head-to-head, against the team directly in front of you.

There is no version of this where the O’s back into the playoffs.

If they reach the post-season, they’ll have earned it – even with the AL being down as a whole.

Walking Some Thoughts Back

On August 3rd I wrote a piece with the headline “Yeah, Time For Elias To Go.”

I’ll take some of that back.

I try not to be hyperbolic, the headline was.

What I wrote at the time was that I could make a logical argument for each move individually and still didn’t like the decision-making collectively.
That I could see the O’s still make the post-season, and if that happened – I’d be irritated to not have Rutschman, Wells, Kremer, Ward available.

My thought was that I would have preferred Elias to add along the fringes, and let that group play out the year.

I did acknowledge that Elias had extracted value in the trades, particularly for Rutschman.

But I said the fanbase wouldn’t get over it, and I said the man should lose his job over it. Four weeks later, the team is 14-11 since, they’ve climbed from four games under to one, and their odds have roughly doubled.

A month later, I have to plainly acknowledge Elias largely made the right call.

And the returns look better with a month of distance. Per MLB Pipeline and ESPN’s updated Top 10, Anthony Eyanson is now the #2 prospect in the system, Enddy Azocar #4, Michael Forret #9. Kyson Witherspoon, also from the Rutschman deal, just missed, as did 2025 college picks Caden Hunter and JT Quinn. Eric Booth Jr. sits atop the list.

Add Joseph Dzierwa, Nate George, Ike Irish, Boston Bateman, Wehiwa Aloy, and Trey Gibson, and this is a genuinely deep system again. Not overwhelming at the very top. But deep, with real pitching, which the O’s have never had this much of at once under Elias.

Ward finished his Orioles season with 2.7 bWAR, 1.8 fWAR. By bWAR, he’s still has the 2nd highest total  on the team.
Rutschman had 1.9 bWAR, and 2.4 fWAR in 67 games.
Wells had a 2.67 ERA out of the pen.

Those were real players and the O’s gave them away in a season they’re now one game out.
So no, I’m not declaring the Deadline a masterstroke.

But calling for the man’s job was too far, and I said it too fast.

If they get in, the correct read is they fortified the systems, and got to October. That would be a hell of a month’s work.

Most Valuable Oriole: Alonso, And Then?

Pete Alonso is the MVO and it isn’t close.

.270/.360/.503, 32 homers, 91 RBI, a 143 OPS+, 4.0 bWAR, 4.0 fWAR, and he’s played all 137 games. On a club that ranks 17th in slugging, he is the slugging.
He has been every bit of what they paid for.

Second is the interesting question.

The bWAR board, among players still in the building:

• Gunnar Henderson  – 2.5
• Brandon Young – 2.1
• Colton Cowser  – 1.9
• Samuel Basallo – 1.6
• Shane Baz – 1.5
• Blaze Alexander -1.3

The fWAR board:

• Shane Baz – 3.4
• Gunnar Henderson – 3.1
• Trevor Rogers – 2.7
• Kyle Bradish – 1.9
• Colton Cowser – 1.7
• Brandon Young – 1.5
• Blaze Alexander – 1.4

Henderson leads it, and I understand why. He’s played 136 games, taken 610 plate appearances, held down shortstop, and hit 22 homers.

But a .223 average and a .307 on-base from a player we expected to be a top-five position player in the sport is a disappointing season to-date, and if voting today – I’d have a hard time placing him 2nd.

Truth be told, Henderson is probably the correct choice.

Still, I’d like to highlight Young and Alexander.

I don’t think either are better or ‘more valuable’ than Henderson obviously; but this year goes completely sideways without their production.

Young is 9-3, 3.38, a 122 ERA+ over 130.1 innings, on a staff that ranks 19th in ERA and lost Zach Eflin and Keegan Akin to Tommy John, traded Kremer, and has watched Chris Bassitt post a 4.97. Young came into 2026 with no guaranteed rotation spot. He’s been regularly dependable, and that consistency means so much.

The fair counter is his 4.30 FIP, which says some regression is owed. Noted.

It’s been great seeing Alexander get back after the fracture in his left hand. He’s hit .309/.363/.430 with a 126 OPS+ in 84 games while starting at six different positions.

Robert Jr., Platoons, And Alignments

Monday the O’s claimed Luis Robert Jr. off outright waivers from the Mets. They owe roughly $3M the rest of the way, with a $20M team option for 2027 that carries a $2M buyout. Because he joined before September 1st, he’s post-season eligible.

He hit .223 with 10 homers and a .702 OPS in 58 games for New York, and missed April 27th through July 20th with a herniated lumbar disc.
He’s got an .841 OPS over his last 30 games, and 75 ab’s.
He’s got elite speed, and a strong arm.
He’s good in CF, previously grading strong.
Him being available for CF, allows you to play Cowser in left and upgrade two spots.

At the Trade Deadline I talked about wanting the O’s to improve on the fringes.
One of the things I mentioned was a better defensive OF.
Here they got a viable option for just money. That’s a win.

With Tyler O’Neill on the IL (retroactive to August 23rd) with a shoulder, the O’s outfield was Cowser (L), Beavers (L), and Taveras (S). Against left-handed pitching that’s a real hole, and Robert is a right-handed bat who won a Gold Glove in center in 2020.

I’m interested to see how playing time shakes out in September.

Clearly Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand have to play every game vs. lefties given how their crushing southpaws.

Taveras probably doesn’t get anymore ab’s vs. LHP (.518 OPS as a RHH).

As we just said above, Robert in CF pushes Coswer to LF.   Cowser has been excellent in CF this year, but was even better in LF in ’24.

Jackson Holliday has been ice cold  (.494 OPS) over his last 104 ab’s. He actually has a higher OPS vs. LHP right now.

Alexander has a .873 OPS vs. RHP.  Got to get him ab’s, and see if he can pick-up where he was before the injury. His positional availability gives Albernaz some flexibility.

How many games can Basallo catch?   Carlos Narvaez is excellent defensively, but he’s really struggling offensively.

Beavers had a nice August offensively. Going into tonight, he’s had a .816 OPS over 69 ab’s.

The Bullpen

I like what has been pieced together here.

Yennier Cano has been the quietly excellent one. 3.07 ERA, a 2.38 FIP, and exactly one home run allowed in 44 innings across 59 appearances. He picked up his third save Sunday.

Rico Garcia has been the workhorse. 64 games, 3.26, a 0.966 WHIP, 59 strikeouts in 58 innings. After allowing 8 homers over June and July, he hasn’t allowed a big fly in August.

Grant Wolfram has a 5.05 ERA and a 3.16 FIP with 9.9 K/9. The results should have been better than they’ve been.

Josh Walker (2.33), Cam Sanders (3.46), and Alex Hoppe (no earned runs in 8.2 innings, acquired in the Rutschman deal) round it out. Cade Povich was recalled Monday to start, and he’s another long-man option.

Andrew Kittredge has eight saves and a 3.19 ERA, but a 3.74 FIP and -0.2 bWAR.  Despite that negative WAR, he’s been strong since the calendar turned to June. I’d still rather have him in the 8th vs. the 9th.

Ryan Helsley hasn’t pitched since June 27th with elbow inflammation and has only recently progressed to bullpen sessions. Plan on nothing, but he’s still hopeful he can return before the year ends. That would be a bonus.

And then there’s the one that matters.

Félix Bautista is three rehab outings into his return from the August 2025 surgery to repair his labrum and rotator cuff. The first, at Double-A Chesapeake, was ugly: one out, three runs, three walks, though the fastball hit 97. The second at Norfolk was a clean inning. The third was a scoreless sixth against Durham with one single, no walks, a strikeout, and a sinker that topped at 97.6.

You are looking to see if he can throw strikes consistently.
At some-point maybe you give him outings on back-to-back days and see how he responds.
Like Helsley, you don’t count on his return, but it’s fun to think about as a possibility.

Things To Watch

Who closes? See above. Albernaz has used five different guys for saves.

Does Bassitt keep his rotation spot? A 4.97 ERA and a 1.582 WHIP, five runs allowed Sunday, and Povich just got recalled after a 5.2-inning, 11-strikeout start at Norfolk. That’s a live question in a race. I’d defer to the experience – probably.

Does Holliday finish? As we said above, Holliday has been freezing the last month. That was after a strong July.  Does he turn things around in September?

Does Basallo get hot?  He’s got the talent to be a difference maker.

Adley comes home. Boston is at Camden Yards Thursday through Sunday. That’s going to be a strange four days, and the crowd reaction will tell you something about where the fanbase actually landed on all this. The fact that he’s got a .500 OPS in 53 ab’s with Boston vs hitting the ground running there makes it easier.

And on September 19th, Trey Mancini signs a one-day contract and retires as an Oriole before the Milwaukee game. Whatever happens in the standings, go to that one.

They Reach October If…

Henderson finishes with a flurry.

This is the whole thing. He hit two off Jeffrey Springs on Sunday, added a run-scoring triple, and tied his career high with five RBI. He’s at 22 homers with a 102 OPS+ in a season that has been a genuine disappointment.

He doesn’t need to be the 2024 version for six months. He needs to be that guy for 25 games. A .900-OPS September from Henderson is worth two or three wins by itself in a race decided by one, and it changes the entire complexion of a lineup that ranks 9th in runs but only 17th in slugging.

If Gunnar goes off, the O’s are in. I believe that more than anything else on this list.

They take care of Colorado and the Mets.

Six games against 52-85 and 61-76. Go 5-1 and you’ve bought yourself the margin to split with Boston and Toronto. Go 3-3 and you’re going to need help you won’t get.

They win the Cleveland series.

September 7th-9th, at home, against another team in the mix.

Bautista gets back and gets the ninth.

Maybe I’m dreaming here. But if the O’s get him back, and he’s able to factor in leverage situations, that’s significant.

Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand keep hammering left-handers, and Albernaz uses them accordingly.

The platoon edges are the cheapest wins available to this team, and they’re sitting right there. Mayo has an .878 OPS since July. Play the matchups every night.

Bradish and Rogers finish strong.

If Gunnar finishing strong is #1 on my list, how Bradish and Rogers finish is 2 and 3.
Bradish had a 5.40 era over 5 starts in August.  We wondered if the lack of innings the last 2 years would catch-up with him.
Rogers had a 4.82 era over his 5 starts in August.
The O’s don’t reach October if these two aren’t better in September.

Twenty-five games. One game back.  Can they go 17-8?

Four weeks ago I wrote that post-season baseball is largely a roll of the dice, and the goal is just to get there and take your chances.

September is arriving, and October is within reach.

The post September Arrives appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fact: The Orioles have traded away Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward, Dean Kremer, and Tyler Wells in-exchange for Anthony Eyanson, Kyson Witherspoon, Enddy Azocar, Carlos Narváez, Alex Hoppe, Brock Moore, Harrison Kreiling, Jhomnardo Reyes, and Michael Forret.  They also made smaller deals for Christian Franklin, Codi Heuer, and Rece Hinds.

Opinion: I can make a logical argument for each move individually. I acknowledge that Orioles General Manager Mike Elias added ceiling, depth, and control to the Orioles system. I still don’t like the decision making process when you look at the moves collectively.  Obviously the primary discussion point here is Rutschman.  Elias extracted value from Boston.  And the Red Sox likely paid more now, with Rutschman having 1.2 years left of team control; then they or another team would have paid this Winter for him. My feeling is the O’s would have still been able to trade Rutschman this Winter if need be, and I don’t think that hypothetical return would have been 50 cents on the dollar compared to the deal they did make.

What I said yesterday was, “Don’t think losing Rutshman, Ward, or Kremer in a vacuum, means a lot; but taken together, it’s a tough look even if you can reasonably understand each individual move.
Kremer is a 5th that was struggling his last 4 starts, and Bassitt is a reasonable answer to replace him, and Elias obtained a kid with helium and control. Ward hasn’t hit for the power expected, and is a below average LF.  The O’s can replace him in the lineup with Beavers, Kjerstad, Taveras, etc… and get similar production. Maybe the relievers obtained help. Rutschman – like Wieters – didn’t match the hype, but also like Wieters was a good player. A 3x All-Star. Your rep this year. He had the 3 stints on the IL this year, but they were largely fluky. I thought he had a better offensive approach this year vs. the last 2 years.  When he hasn’t been around, it’s been noticeable with the lineup. I haven’t seen the return, but I expect Elias extracted some value from Boston. And with Rutschman, you could argue now was the time to trade him if you weren’t going to reach an extension.”

After sleeping on it, looking at the returns, and adding the Wells trade; I feel the same.
The most valuable commodity in baseball is team control; but the most valuable thing in baseball is holding a Championship trophy and unfurling a banner.
I was okay with Elias trading off Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez at the 2022 Deadline, because that team was ahead of schedule.
I can’t get on-board the same way here in 2026, because the ’26 O’s are behind schedule.
The AL is not overwhelming this year, and despite being 4 games under .500 entering tonight, the O’s were 15-8 in July.
I believe post-season baseball is largely a roll-of-the-dice. The goal is to get there and take your chances.
FanGraphs is giving the O’s a 12% chance of reaching the post-season, so not great odds, but not nothing either.
Entering play tonight, the O’s are 2.5 games back of the 3rd Wild Card (Cleveland), and 5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card (Boston). Minnesota, Texas, Seattle, all ahead of the O’s, all 1-2 games back of Cleveland.

I generally think the play was improving, and that the O’s had a reasonable chance to get to October.
They still might.
If they do, you could say, “They still reached the post-season, and they fortified the system.” 
If that happens, that would be a very fair comment.
I think if they reach the post-season, my take will be that I would have liked having Rutschman available.

My overarching thought is, I would have rather seen the O’s either keep the roster as is, or add along the fringes to help the existing ML roster, vs. again deciding not to try.
Elias decided the odds weren’t good enough to try now, and the more prudent decision was adding more to the overall arsenal to try again tomorrow.

Part of me respects that.
You should want multiple bites at the apple vs. going all in once.
And while I might have enjoyed it in the moment, I don’t think I would have really supported going all in with major acquisitions of players with expiring team control utilizing the existing prospect pool.
I would have supported continuing with the current group for the remainder of ’26 and giving them a bit of help.
Another reliever capable of contributing in leverage situations. A defensive 4th OF.

Fact: Via MLB Pipeline, Eyanson becomes the Orioles top overall prospect, with Forret, Witherspoon, and Azocar also now in the Orioles Top 10.

Opinion: The system was pretty tapped before the trades and draft last year. Now with the 2026 Draft completed and these trades; the system strength is again pretty strong. Maybe not overwhelming quality at the top, but a good amount of guys that could possibly directly contribute to the ML roster, or give you the organizational depth necessary to make other trades.  If you were going to make the trades, I like the returns.  Elias added some legitimate talent.  Once you moved Rutschman, I certainly get moving Wells at that point. Getting Forret back in the organization was a nice move.

Fact: Carlos Narváez has a .535 OPS in a 171 ab’s this year for Boston.  He also had a .726 OPS in 403 ab’s last year, with 15 homers, and 27 doubles. He’s regarded as a strong defensive Catcher, and he is under team control through the 2031 season.

Opinion: If he can rebound offensively, you’ve got a nice pairing with him and Basallo long-term at Catcher.

Fact: Christian Franklin is starting in LF tonight for the O’s.

Opinion: The 26 year old Franklin had a .735 OPS in 426 plate appearances this year for AAA Rochester. Obtained from the Nationals for Joe Glassey. This year with Rochester he had 35 games in RF, 31 games in LF, and 17 in CF.  Presumably when he does play, he will be a better LF than Ward.  Obviously not a high bar there. Still, I think we would all enjoy seeing improved defense down the stretch. Curious to see how much playing time he gets.

Fact: Holliday, Mayo, Cowser, and Beavers are all in the lineup tonight.

Opinion: When we get to the off-season, and we start thinking about 2027; our optimism for believing the O’s can be more of a factor next year is going to largely be tied to how these guys finish out 2026.  Holliday had a .921 OPS in July. What can he do for encore here in August?  Plenty of playing time available for the other three as well. How do they perform these last two months?

Fact: Elias reported July 31st that Blaze Alexander’s bone is still healing (non-displaced fracture in left-hand). No timetable currently for his return.

Opinion: As I start thinking more about ’27, I envision Alexander penciled into Super Utility duty, with Jordan Westburg getting every opportunity to reclaim 3rd once he shows he’s healthy.

Fact: The O’s have given recent extensions to Basallo, Baz, Bradish, and Cano.  They obviously signed Alonso before this season.

Opinion: I think you can safely assume that if Orioles Owner David Rubenstein had taken ownership earlier, that Elias might have pushed for deals into the free agent seasons with Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Holliday.  There is some talk to be found the the O’s did offer Rutschman extension offers in the last year plus which were rejected. Presumably Henderson will want to reach Free Agency, but after a down for him ’25 with the shoulder injury, and this disappointing ’26 season; the deal he ultimately signs somewhere is not going to be as lucrative as it figured to be after the ’24 season.  I’d still be pushing for a deal with him now, offering him very significant money. Hoping he’d consider it with the way his ’26 has gone. My guess is Henderson would decline such a deal, and bet on himself to rebound in ’27.  If he rebounds in a big way, he probably prices himself out of a possible deal with the O’s.  If he rebounds and the team doesn’t, I think the O’s will have to look to trade him next Summer like they did with Rutschman yesterday. If the team rebounds, you probably ride out ’27.  Then maybe you deal him after the ’27 season (he’s a Free Agent after ’28).  I know some people are not super excited about Holliday at this point, but he’s not 23 until December, and the potential is still there. He’s not a Free Agent until after 2030. If you could get a deal done now that takes you through 2032 or 2033, that would be great.

Westburg is also a Free Agent after 2030. He will miss all of ’26, and was limited to 85 games in ’25. He’s 28 next February.  Given all the time he’s missed, could you tack on a year or two now? Is that a good risk given his age, and the injury history? Does the existing injury history make a deal viable?

Fact: Trevor Rogers was not traded yesterday.

Opinion: I didn’t want to see Rogers moved, but was surprised after Rutschman was dealt, that Rogers didn’t find a new home. Rogers was quoted leading up to the deadline saying he wants to stay in Baltimore. He’s a Free Agent to be.  I’d like to see a deal happen there. If you get a deal done before the off-season, you could go into Winter believing you had four spots (Bradish, Rogers, Baz, Young) in the rotation filled. I don’t see a scenario where the O’s obtain two starters with better upside than Rogers. Getting to the Winter and feeling like you have to fill two spots doesn’t seem ideal.

The post Facts & Opinions On The Orioles – August 4th appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Believe he’s capable of building a Championship team.

Can acknowledge that he was threading a needle here between a team that is 2.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card, and also 4 games under .500.

Don’t think losing Rutshman, Ward, or Kremer in a vacuum, means a lot; but taken together, it’s a tough look even if you can reasonably understand each individual move.

Kremer is a 5th that was struggling his last 4 starts, and Bassitt is a reasonable answer to replace him, and Elias obtained a kid with helium and control.

Ward hasn’t hit for the power expected, and is a below average LF.  The O’s can replace him in the lineup with Beavers, Kjerstad, Taveras, etc… and get similar production. Maybe the relievers obtained help.

Rutschman – like Wieters – didn’t match the hype, but also like Wieters was a good player. A 3x All-Star. Your rep this year. He had the 3 stints on the IL this year, but they were largely fluky. I thought he had a better offensive approach this year vs. the last 2 years.  When he hasn’t been around, it’s been noticeable with the lineup. I haven’t seen the return, but I expect Elias extracted some value from Boston. And with Rutschman, you could argue now was the time to trade him if you weren’t going to reach an extension.

But…

Kremer could potentially help you now. The 18 year old you obtained can’t. Twins 1.5 games up on the O’s in the WC race.

Rutschman made the O’s better now, and you’ve traded him to a division rival.  A team above you in the playoff race.

Ward traded to Seattle, a team a .5 game up on the O’s in the WC race. You’ve removed a guy that has a high on-base %, and has been in the lineup everyday. Is that a great message to the clubhouse?

Collectively, just a very tough look.

And as someone that genuinely likes Elias, I can’t justify it overall, even when I can make the individual arguments.

The fanbase isn’t going to get over this.

Hell, even if Bassitt is good, Kremer is bad, the in-house options seamlessly replace Ward…  and the O’s get past losing Rutschman and still make the post-season….    even if that all happens, once there the feeling will be…  “The O’s lineup would look better with Adley there.” 

Time to go.

Potential Replacements For Elias:

Jon Daniels – Former Rangers General Manager.  Currently a Senior Advisor with Tampa Bay.

Kim Ng – Former Marlins General Manager.  Currently outside the game entirely.

James Click – Former Astros General Manager.  Now VP of Baseball Strategy with Toronto.

Michael Fishman – Yankees VP / Assistant GM under Brian Cashman.

Amiel Sawdaye – Diamondbacks SVP / Assistant GM under Mike Hazen.  Baltimore native, Graduate of Pikesville High, and University of Maryland.

Cal Ripken Jr. –  The HOF, has an Ownership share, and is doing some Player Development work.  Obviously the name would sell, and the Ripken Way still carries weight. Especially with the current fundamental issues with the ML team.  Feels like Ripken would need to surround himself with a lot of Front Office experience.

The post Yeah, Time For Elias To Go appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

2.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card, you can argue that the O’s have a viable path to reaching the post-season.  FanGraphs gives the O’s a 21.2% chance of making the playoffs currently.

Conversely, with the O’s still 4 games under .500, and a number of on-going injuries; you could argue that there isn’t much reason to believe the remaining 53 games will be demonstrably different than the first 109.

There are 6 games between now and the Deadline next week. Every game matters at this point.

The Atlanta Series

Against the NL East leading Braves, the O’s played in three 1 run games this last weekend. With the bases loaded and none out in the 10th yesterday, the O’s were on the precipice of a series win. Alas, things went awry. So close, so far away.

It was a competitive series against a quality team, but it was frustrating to not get the series W.

Going by current records, the O’s have one of / if not the strongest remaining schedule.
So if the Birds reach the post-season, they’ll have earned their way there by playing well against quality teams the rest of the way.
There is a reminder there that the O’s didn’t do enough earlier on, when the schedule was a bit lighter.
With the remaining schedule dwindling daily, losses that were possibly wins feel especially compounded at this point of the season.

Unlike football, there isn’t a lot of time in baseball to celebrate wins or tough losses.
There isn’t a week in-between games, there is another game the next day.
In that sense, yesterday is over, and the O’s are on to Detroit, and I agree with that mentality.

Realistically though, the Orioles have to play at a consistently elevated level these last 53 games.
If a win is there for the taking, they can not squander those opportunities.

My only other note from watching the Braves for a couple of days, was that even with Atlanta making a couple of unusual unforced errors; that’s a quality defensive team that is typically not going to force their pitching staff into recording extra outs.

Certainly a juxtaposition with the O’s when looking at how the Orioles defense regularly gives opposing offences additional opportunities.

The O’s are 12th overall in Runs Scored, and 12th overall in ERA.

Does this feel surprising to you?

Both numbers continue to trend upwards for the O’s.

Overall run differential continues to trend towards even.

Taken together, I think the O’s are generally a bit better than how most O’s fan would grade them – but the defensive liabilities are limiting.

The Bradish Extension

Loved that deal, and was frankly surprised it wasn’t significantly higher.  Kyle has had a solid year, and he’s been strong the last month (2.96 era, 24.1 ip), but he hasn’t been overly sharp overall after missing all but 14 total starts over 2024 and 2025. There have been control issues, which can often be the last thing to come back after surgery.  Still, I would have expected the soon to be 30 year old to get a larger deal in an extension. These total dollars are very workable.  Already I think it looks like a steal.  If he finishes strong, and continues to look more-and-more like his 2023 self, than the contract just looks that much better.

This deal, the Basallo extension, the Alonso signing, the Baz extension; it’s been fun to see the O’s locking up multiple pieces.

Trevor Rogers

Rogers is set to hit Free Agency after this 2026 season.

Unless the O’s collapse over the next 6 days, it would be surprising to see the O’s trade him by the deadline.

As I’ve said before a few times now, I’d pay for him to be a 3rd starter, and maybe not expect him to be that – but would have some reasonable hope he could be more than that.

If you can get a deal done with him – and the Bradish contract provides a viable framework – then you’ve got the makings of a pretty solid rotation locked in.

He had a 2.05 era over 5 starts in June, and he’s followed that up with a 1.48 era over 4 starts in July.

You can probably expect some up-and-down fluctuations from him going forward, but he’s not yet 29 and he’s very impressive extended stretches last year and this year.

If he were to leave in Free Agency, I have zero expectations of the O’s adding someone with equal or better ceiling.

Brandon Young

Where would the O’s be without Brandon Young?

He started the year as the O’s 8th starter, and he’s 8-2 with a 3.13 era.

Over 97.2 ip, he’s allowed 92 hits, 9 homers, 34 walks, and has 80 k’s.

He’s been remarkably consistent, and he’s one of the primary reasons the O’s can still dream of playing games that matter in October.

Updating The Injuries

Adley Rutschman – The O’s 2026 All-Star rep is on the IL for the 3rd time this season. Per The Baltimore Sun, he was seen throwing the ball Saturday at Camden Yards, but has yet to resume catching the ball. Rutschman played 2 games (catching one) in Houston after the break, and then went on the IL with a wrist injury. Those wrist injuries are usually extended inflammation. My guess is that it didn’t just flair up after the one start catching vs. the Astros. Which makes me wonder if he should have spent the entirety of the All-Star break with no baseball activity?  He is eligible to return to action Wednesday July 29th, but that currently doesn’t seem likely.

Sam Basallo – The O’s shutdown Basallo from baseball activities for a few days to let his shoulder calm down. He is eligible to return to the O’s this Friday July 31st, but as with Rutschman – that doesn’t seem likely.

Blaze Alexander – It was reported 10 days ago that there was no time table for Alexander’s return. He was placed on the IL retroactive to July 13th, and his non-displaced fracture typically takes 6-8 weeks to heal.

Ryan Helsley – Was transferred form the 15 day IL to the 60 day IL 8 days ago. After being placed on the IL, the soonest he could return is August 29th.

Definitely a different looking O’s lineup without Rutschman and Basallo.
The O’s really needed Helsley to be an All-Star caliber closer this year, and he’s largely been unavailable.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

CES has given the lineup a boost in his first 7 games with the Orioles.

Encarnacion-Strand started the 2024 season as Cincinnati’s 1st baseman.  2024 and 2025 was marked by injuries and non-performance.

This year he has a productive 274 ab’s at the AAA level before his promotion to Baltimore.  We wondered who would step-up when Alexander went down, and at-least temporarily Encarnacion-Strand has answered the call.

Dylan Beavers 

Beavers is 13 for 44 so far in July, slashing .295 / .380 / .364.  The game winner Saturday was nice.  When he’s going like this, he puts up a bunch of good ab’s which is fun to watch. Doesn’t overswing, finds contact. There are definitely things to like about his game.

Tyler O’Neill 

TON has a .983 OPS in 38 July ab’s, with 4 of his 6 homers on the year coming this month.  People might not like seeing his name in the lineup, but have to ride that hot hand.

Tyler Wells

For the season, Wells has appeared in 41 games.

Have to feel good for him, after he was limited to just 7 combined starts over 2024 and 2025.

In those 41 games, he has a 2.82 era, with 51 innings, 53 hits, 12 bb’s, and 53 k’s.

Over the last 30 days, he’s 1-1, with a 1.88 era, and 3 saves.

His Baseball Savant page shows a lot of red.

Up Next?

The O’s are beginning a 3 game series in Detroit.

The O’s are 2.5 games back of the 3rd Wild Card (Cleveland), and the Tigers are 3.5 games back of the Guardians.

Detroit is 6-4 over their last 10, but has lost their last 2.

The Tigers are 21st in Runs Scored, 22nd in On-Base %, and 18th in Slugging.
Detroit is 5th overall in ERA.

The scheduled pitching match-ups are:

Bradish vs. Montero
Kremer vs. Melton
&
Rogers vs. Skubal

The trade rumors around Skubal are getting a lot of attention. 

The post Closing In On The Deadline appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The O’s are now 46-51 as the All-Star Break arrives.

10 Quick Thoughts

1) The O’s entered today in last-place in the AL East, and the season still isn’t ‘over.’  The 97 games played so far weren’t an enjoyable watch, but opportunity still awaits in the 34% of the season that remains. I still like the O’s talent, and believe the AL is too jumbled to justify trading off a ton before the August 3rd Trade Deadline. Maybe the O’s will come out of the All-Star Break, and have another poor stretch that seemingly officially closes the lights on the 2026 season. If that happens, and the O’s decide to part with Adley Rutschman, Trevor Rogers, Taylor Ward, etc; that would be understandable. But as of today, they’re 2 games out of a Playoff spot, and their talent compares well with the 7 different teams (Cleveland, Seattle, Minnesota, Houston, Boston, Toronto, Detroit) that will be competing for the last 2 Wild Card’s in the American League. Of that group only Cleveland is currently above .500.  If you think the O’s are toast, and should be trading any assets not tied down for prospects and team control – you’ll have to explain to me why the O’s are done, but those other teams are not.

If the argument is solely that you’ve watched these initial 97 games, and don’t believe in the O’s – that’s fine, and fairly understandable.
But that argument falls apart to me if you believe the O’s chances are dramatically different than any of the other aforementioned teams above.

2) Tampa Bay is 56-37, and leading the American League East.  The Yankees are 53-42, and the lead Wild Card in the American League. Per FanGraphs, both of those teams have over a 96.5% chance of making the post-season. Given the gap between those teams, and the O’s currently – we can put those teams out of our mind at this point.

Scoreboard watching can be fun, but I’m not going fixate on the Guardians, Mariners, Twins, Astros, Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Tigers either.
Cleveland is 3 games ahead of Seattle and Minnesota, who are tied for the 3rd Wild Card.  Houston, Boston, Toronto, Detroit, and the O’s are all within 2.5 games of the Mariners and Twins.
Basically it comes down to which 2 teams are going to play the best over the last 10 weeks of the season? How do these teams perform head-to-head?
The Red Sox are a good example of this.
They’ve largely been down for most of the season so far, but are riding an 8 game winning streak. With this stretch, they’ve pulled within 3 games of .500, and now have a 37% chance of making the post-season.
So, who gets hot?

3) Are the O’s capable of getting hot over an extended stretch?  They entered today 12th in runs scored (12th in on-base %, and 17th in slugging %), and 20th in ERA. Their a below average defensive team. Closers might be overrated by analytics, but I think fans and players alike feel better knowing you have a reliable closer to finish games off.  If the O’s are going to go on a run, they’ve got to slug better. They’ve actually got the on-base % up to a decent level, but now their not putting enough balls in the seats.  I feel pretty good currently about Bradish, Rogers, Baz, Young, and Kremer; but if the O’s aren’t trading away at the deadline; than GM Mike Elias needs to prioritize adding a high leverage reliever to add to the mix. You could also argue for adding a reserve OF and/or UTI IF that could be a positive defensive replacement at multiple positions.  If you wanted to aggressively pursue one of the better SP’s available with some of the O’s Top 10 prospects (outside of Wehiwa Aloy) before the 2026 MLB Draft; I could get on-board with that. If that were to occur, I’d expect Kremer would be part of the package leaving.

To get to the playoffs, the O’s likely have to win 85-90 games.  With 46 wins currently in 97 games, that means the O’s would need to win 39 to 44 of their last 65.

4) Coming into action Sunday, the O’s leaders by fWAR were Alonso (2.3), Rutschman (2.1), and Henderson and Baz were tied at 1.9.   I can’t imagine a scenario where the O’s get hot, and Henderson doesn’t play at a dramatically improved level than we’ve seen from him over these initial 97 games.  I feel good for Rutschman, making his 3rd All-Star team.  His slash line this year .253 / .327 / .436 looks a lot like his career averages .254 / .342 / .415; but better than the past two years.  The biggest difference to me is the doubles.  He had just 37 doubles in 893 ab’s during ’24 and ’25.  This year he has 18 in 241 ab’s. To me, that show’s he has had much better approach this season.

5) If you were doing the 2026 Most Valuable Oriole voting today, Blaze Alexander*, Brandon Young, and Sam Basallo have to be getting votes somewhere on your ballot. The tough watch we’ve seen would’ve been an absolute nightmare without their contributions to date. Basallo hit homerun #16 today.  The most impressive thing to me about Sam isn’t his ridiculous power, it’s the adjustments he’s shown he’s able to make including in-game depending on situation. He’ll be 22 in a month, and he seems like he could finish the year with a floury.

*EDIT: Per MASN’s Roch Kubatko, Alexander has a non-displaced fracture on his left hand after being hit with a pitch in the 7th. That takes the wind out of the sails quite a bit.

6) If you believe or don’t believe in the O’s chances of putting a run together, it probably largely comes down to how you feel about Bradish and Rogers going forward. Over the last 30 days, Bradish has a 2.12 era over 34 innings of work. Rogers is at a 1.19 era (30.1 innings) over that same 30 day stretch. If you think Bradish is going to hit a wall and tire out, or you believe Rogers is just too inconsistent – than you’ll be down on the O’s chances of finishing strong.  If you believe these two are capable of sustained excellence, you are probably a bit more enthusiastic.

7) Alonso has a .854 OPS for his career, and he entered today at .825 for the season. He’s on-pace for 35 bombs, and 29 doubles. He’s largely held-up his end. Ward is playing everyday (96 games played), and despite being a below-average LF, he’s been a league average-ish LF overall with his .385 on-base %.  Last year with the Angels he had a .317 on-base %, and a .475 slugging % (69 xbh’s, including 36 homers). This year he’s slugging .361, and is on-pace for just 10 homers (32 doubles). At some point I’d think the obp would come down, and there would be more big flies.

8) Cowser had a .891 OPS in May, and a .725 OPS in June.  He’s now 1 for 17 in July, and 11 for his last 58 (entering today). The O’s need his glove in CF, so they can’t afford him to again become a black-hole in the lineup. Mayo has 12 homers, and is on-pace for 20. The other day he reached the 2nd deck in LF, which has rarely happened in the history of OPACY. He’d really benefit himself and the team if used the whole field more. He’s got just 9 doubles in 223 ab’s, which is pretty inexcusable for a guy with his power. He just has to commit to making more contact (80 k’s) and taking more pitches the opposite field. We know Mayo isn’t going to spend a lot of his career at 3rd going forward, but that’s where the O’s had availability for him in ’26 after Westburg’s injury.  Alexander isn’t a fantastic fielder himself, but he’s better than Mayo, and with the way he’s betting hitting since May 1st – he’s going to get most of the playing time at 3rd. But Mayo is still going to find opportunities the rest of the year.  He’s talented enough to contribute, and too talented to not be embarrassed by that that current sub .200 batting average.

9) At 22 years old, Jackson Holliday doesn’t have to-be a finished product. Also shouldn’t expected to-be one. After starting the year on the IL with his hamate bone surgery; Holliday has played in 45 games this year and has 119 at-bats. He had 60 games and 190 ab’s as a rookie in ’24, and 586 at-bats over 149 games last year in his first full season.  In ’24, he had a .565 OPS. Last year that improved to ,690.  He’s at .703 right now. His current batting average (.210) is lower than last year (.242), but that’s just the difference of a productive week with so few ab’s for the year yet.  His on-base, and slugging match his production from last year, but his BB% is significantly higher (14.3% vs. 8.6%). His K’s are also up.  Like to see his average climb the remainder of the year.  He hit for high averages (at-very young ages) at the A, and AA level.  That slowed some at AAA in ’23 and ’24 before his MLB promotion, but he still had quality averages (again, particularly for his age) at the AAA level.  When you start thinking about how the light could come on for the O’s, he’s one of the ways.

10) The O’s schedule out of the break, up until the Trade Deadline is:

@ Houston July 17th – 19th
@ Boston July 20th – 22nd
Atlanta July 24th – 26th
@ Detroit July 27th – 29th
Philadelphia July 31st – August 2nd

Atlanta and Philadelphia are 1st and 2nd in the NL East.
Houston, Boston, Detroit also in the AL WC mix.

The O’s are 18-26 on the road so far, and 3 of those series are on the road.
Come out of the break, and get pummeled in these series’, and maybe there is clearance sale leading up to August 3rd.

If you want to feel like a contender at the Deadline, you’ve got to start stacking series wins.
if the Birds could manage to win all 5 series, going 2-1 in each, they’d be 56-56 with 50 games left; and then things could get fun.

A more realistic 8-7 showing in that stretch, would likely leave me feeling like I do today.
In for a penny, in for a pound.

Going into the break on their first four game winning streak is a positive.
The fact that opportunity still exists for this season is a positive.

We will see if they’re able to build from here, and put together an extended quality stretch.

The post The All-Star Break Arrives appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

I’m disappointed in the 2026 Baltimore Orioles to-date, because I did have expectations for this season.

When Opening Day arrived, I thought they looked like a 90 win team.

I expected a playoff ticket to be punched, and once there; you see what happens.

I hoped Jordan Westburg would return to start June, and thought he’d be missed in the time he was unavailable.
I thought too much was riding on Trevor Rogers again being a front-end starter as he had been over 18 starts in ’25; but I believed things would work with the roster overall.

I didn’t like the defense, but felt the lineup would be productive power wise, and the rotation had solid usable depth.

I wasn’t sure what to expect from 1st year Manager Craig Albernaz, but my default position was (and remains) that MLB Manager’s in 2026 have fairly minimal impact.
If anything, I thought if the team rebounded like I expected they would – he’d get a large portion of the credit.
I did think maybe he’d help the team with day-to-day focus, and details.
Mainly I thought after having only two players reach 90+ games played in ’25, that the roster would look more locked in with improved health and availability.

The Orioles have not been an enjoyable product to watch this year, but I’ve generally maintained my optimism for the roster.
I last wrote about the O’s a week ago, when they had reached the true half-way point of their ’26 season.
Going into play that night, they were 38-43, 2 games out of the 3rd Wild Card, and 3.5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card.

Part of the optimism I still had last week was tied to the rest of the American League.
A post-season run was still well within reach, if the O’s could just put some consistently positive play together over the remainder of their season.
After winning today, they’ve gone 2-5 overall since then.
Now 40-48 overall, they’ve fallen back to 8 games under .500, and are 5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card.

The O’s have been a hard watch, but I genuinely still like / believe in large swaths of the roster.
Which is again part of the reason the year has been disappointing.
I think the results should be better than they are given what exists.
Stubbornly, I still believe the roster compares pretty favorably talent wise to the rest of the American League sans New York.
At 38-43 last week, I still thought the O’s were capable of a 2nd half run (getting to the 85-90 overall wins they’d need to be in the playoff hunt).
I did say they had dug a hole.
I did say they were a bad week away from being in an even more precarious position.
I did say they’d have to play .580+ ball the rest of the year (at that point, with 81 games remaining) to finish in a possible playoff position, and that only 4 MLB teams were currently at that level.

Now?
At 40-48, they’ve had that bad week, and their backs are up against the proverbial wall even more.
At this point, they’re wearing the mask, and the firing squad is aiming at them.
They’ve got very minimal margin for error.
To get to 85 wins, they’d have to go 45-29.  (A .608 winning percentage over the last 74 games.)
To get to 90 wins, they’d have to go 50-24.  (A .676 winning percentage over the last 74 games.)

There are currently two teams in MLB with a winning percentage over .600.

Do I think the O’s are going to win 45-50 of their last 74 games?
No, I can’t say I do.
I think there is enough talent on the roster, that they’re capable of a scorching stretch; but capable of and believing they will are two different things.
The Orioles simply haven’t done anything collectively to believe the year will turn on a dime.
It would certainly be a pleasant surprise.

Acknowledging that, allows me to watch the remaining O’s games this season in a different light.
With no remaining expectations for this year, my attention turns more towards what comes next?

Before looking ahead, some thoughts on why this year hasn’t gone to plan.

I believe talent typically wins out.
Each year there are reasonable ranges of expectations for players and teams.
The greater history you have, the more detail you have; those ranges shrink.
When you have results outside of standard deviation points, you have the outlier seasons which make watching sports worthwhile.
If every result came down to a cold calculation, and there was never a surprise, there wouldn’t be a whole lot to watch.

Each year does bring surprises.
Some welcomed, some not.

The ’26 Orioles are on-pace to win 74 games.
My expectation was 90 wins.
Somewhere between 78 wins and 93 wins would have felt to me like reasonable expectations for the O’s on Opening Day.
I was on the high-side, but I saw a path where things could go wrong, and they could finish slightly under .500.
Also saw a path where they could be better than I expected.

74 wins is outside of that expected range to me, which forces other questions.
Is it a complete over-estimation of the talent by me?  That’s possible.
Is the baseline talent good enough, but there are other things going on, and if so, what would those other things be?

Not enough leadership?
Fractions within the clubhouse?
Players unhappy with their contracts?
A team of complacent, mental weaklings?
A lack of self-discipline?

There are lots of things outside of talent, which matter in life and sports.
Other aspects which determine why people and players succeed or fail.
Drive, intensity, work ethic.  An ability to work with others.  Hustle, desire, competitiveness, enthusiasm, grit.

If you told me you could choose between two players of near comparable skill, and Player A apparently had all of the intrinsic gifs you would seek in an individual, while Player B had known character questions; sure sign-me for Player A, even if Player B grades as the slightly better talent.

But while there are tests, and certainly human interactions, which can help you determine how someone grades with soft-skills, aptitude, and motivation; those results aren’t readily available on FanGraphs, and Baseball Savant.

As such, I’m uncomfortable attributing character grades to individuals I don’t know.
There can be glimpses of things that show through the TV, and make me like a player more.
BJ Surhoff had an intense focus, readily apparent to all, and you didn’t have to be holding a microphone in-front of him to know that.
Nolan Reimold busted has ass down the line everytime.
Adam Jones went cleats up into 2nd base, looking to wipe out a potential double play.

Those things stood out.

What did we know about Nick Markakis?
He showed up ready to play most days, so we appreciated the work-ethic and consistency.
He had a reputation of being a clubhouse leader, but not because he was boiling over with intensity, or known for fiery speeches.
Teammates loved him apparently because he posted up.

It helped that the O’s were good around him.
Otherwise, more might have been asked of him.
Go back to 1988 and how Eddie Murray was covered locally at that point.
Murray’s on-track then for a Hall-of-Fame career, but the O’s had gone from ’83 World Champions, to the worst team in baseball in ’88.
The steady, consistent, quiet approach that was respected and revered in ’83, is now viewed as stand-offish and a character flaw 5 years later.
Did Eddie change?
Or was he a convenient scape-goat and target for the Media and an angry fanbase?

Again, my point here being there are things outside of talent which matter to the success of teams and players, but grading those things are difficult.
There are things we as fans can observe from our seats and couches, but most of our arm-chair analysis of such is circumstantial at-best.

Could there be existing issues outside of talent, which are impacting the O’s team performance?
Maybe?
I’m certainly not in a position to judge that.

Let’s say you are world’s preeminent Sports Psychologist, and the O’s have brought you into the clubhouse to evaluate.
And you’ve determined there are issues outside the field, which are impacting play on-the-field.

Okay.

Now what?

Can you quantify that?
How much of the O’s performance would you attribute to those issues?

Again, I can’t answer that.
I don’t know that those issues exist, and if they do – I certainly don’t know how much weight to give it.

Call me crazy, but I think the O’s primary issues are:

• Their 22nd in ERA.
• Their not as brutal defensively as some say, but it’s being kind to say defense isn’t a strength.
• Nor is their baserunning.
• The bullpen is missing at-least one needed high-leverage arm.
• Their best player is having a down year.
• The rotation needed Rogers and Kyle Bradish to be consistent front-end starters; and they’ve got 13 Quality Starts in 32 outings.

If you want to point to character questions, I don’t know what do with that.

If you want to discuss the talent just not being good enough, that’s a discussion we can have.

Sometimes, players and teams over or underachieve expected results, and I’m not sure there is always a great reason for it.

Gunnar Henderson is one of the most talented players in baseball, and he’s having a pretty pedestrian season.
Are there deep underlying reasons for that, or is that just baseball?
Why does Cal Ripken Jr. have his 2nd MVP season in ’91, and follow that with a very mediocre ’92?
I’d suggest the answer is that baseball is a game predicated around failure and adjustments.
More often than not, you are going to fail.
Sometimes even the best aren’t able to make the necessary in-season changes.

Sometimes things just don’t work out.

If you determine there are talent, or character issues with the roster, and believe those issues need to be reconciled with needed wholesale change; have at-it.

My determination is that the talent is largely good enough to win with.
I’m not in position to judge if there are character questions.
And if there are character questions, I don’t know how to quantify.
As such, I’d be largely inclined to run things back with tweaks vs. larger changes.
More cosmetic changes (paint job) vs. demo work.

Early Thoughts On 2027

• If I’m Orioles Owner David Rubenstein, the first determination to make is about Orioles GM Mike Elias. Is he the right fit for the job or is he not?  The majority of Birdland would probably vote no right now. I’d vote yes. The only vote that really matters is Rubenstein’s.  If Elias is going to be back for ’27, the O’s should announce that and take that ambiguity off the table.
• What is the organization doing with Adley Rutschman? The O’s are 8 games under .500 with 24 games until the Trade Deadline. Rutschman is under team-control through ’27. If the O’s are seemingly out of Wild Card contention at the deadline, there has to be consideration to trading Rutschman. He’s more valuable to another team (and thus should extract more return) with 1.2 years of team control remaining vs. being traded this off-season, or sometime next year. Adley is 28 years old.  He’s been on the IL twice this year. When he has been available, he’s having his best offensive year since ’23.  If the O’s didn’t trade him, and just kept him under control through next year, he hits the Free Agent market in October 2027 at age 29, preparing to turn 30 in February ’28.  I like having him and Samuel Basallo together. I’d think Rutschman would also enjoy having someone he can split time with behind the plate vs. a normal backup.  I’m sure Rutschman would like a 7-8 year deal which would take him to his late 30s.  I’m sure the O’s would prefer a 5 year deal. Rutschman is a good, not-transformative player. With Basallo, I’m more open to a Rutschman extension than I have been previously.  An in-season deal might not be realistic. Rutschman might also want to get to Free Agency and the open market vs. doing any deal.  If I’m the O’s, I’m pushing extremely hard right now for an answer. “We’d like to find a deal that works for both sides, is that possible?”  If he’s not open to doing a deal now, or if what he would want is outside of what you are prepared to do; then trading him by August 3rd needs to be in-play.  That doesn’t mean I would definitely trade him though. He’d bring back more if traded now vs. the off-season, or next year sometime; but I don’t think he’d bring back a huge return regardless.  If you make him available, and you love the offer, you can pull the trigger.  If you don’t like the offer, you live with that, and have him available for next year.
• Rogers is a Free Agent after the year. Free Agent pitching is expensive obviously. He showed an ability to pitch like an ace over 18 starts last year. That upside means something. So does the lack of consistency in his career. Can both sides work an extension at 3rd to 5th starter prices? I’d sign up for that. Id pay for him to be a 3rd starter – maybe not expect him to be that – but would have some reasonable hope he could be more than that. If he isn’t traded in season and pitches we’ll during the remainder of the year, a deal probably becomes unlikely unless he wants to remain because of a comfort factor. If the O’s believe in him, they should pursue a deal now.  Make him a reasonable offer now. Make him take it or turn it down.  If he turns it down, then you probably have to trade him at the Deadline and get something back for him.  An extension is ideal for the O’s. If he’s gone, you are going to want to replace him in the rotation. Would be costly in dollars (Free Agency) or trade (player capital).  Is an extension ideal for Rogers?  Would someone give him a deal for more than 3rd starter Free Agent money?  Maybe?  After his year last year, and turning things around over the last month here in ’26; is he comfortable in an O’s uniform?
• So, when I’m starting to think about ’27, I’m starting with Elias, Rutschman, and Rogers.  It seems to me you’d need answers with those items before turning attention to anything else.
• Once you’ve answered those questions, you can decide what do with Taylor Ward. Like Rogers, he’s a Free Agent after this year. If you’ve moved Rutschman, and Rogers, then you probably move Ward as well. If you’ve found deals (again, realize in-season deals with either Rutschman or Rogers is unlikely, and probably highly unlikely to do deals with both) with Rutschman and/or Rogers, I might be inclined to also try and find an extension for Ward now too. A Ward extension would be a 1 or 2 year deal. I’d look at him as an average everyday regular.  You could try and upgrade the position. We will look at possible Free Agents later. Maybe someone catches the eye. You could let him go, and there are multiple ways you could make up for his current production. Hell, you could just bring back Leody Taveras for another year, and have a Taveras, Cowser, Beavers OF penciled in for ’27.  But he played 156, and 157 games the last two years with the Angels, and has played nearly everyday with the O’s. The homers are drastically lower than anticipated, but the on-base % is way higher than expected. He’s a legitimate everyday player, despite his defense being a bit below average in LF. He’s also turning 33 in December which is part of why an extension would be a 1 or 2 year deal.  I’m not in love with Ward, but he feels like another adult in the room.
• Blaze Alexander has been my favorite Oriole to watch the last few months. I also remain a big fan of Westburg, and will be anxious for him to get back next year; and hopeful he can put his injuries behind him. If Westburg stays available, and claims 3rd, then Alexander is either a Super Utility guy, or potentially could end up competing for time with Jackson Holliday at 2nd.
• If Rutschman is back for ’27, you’ve got him and Basallo holding down C and DH.   Obviously Pete Alonso has 1st for sometime.  Westburg staying healthy enough to hold down 3rd will remain a question. But if he does, and Rutschman is back; it becomes harder to find potential ab’s for Coby Mayo.  I would think the O’s would want Westburg to prove his health before moving Mayo.  Mayo is never going to be a good 3rd baseman imo, but I do think he made strides towards serviceable this year.  And despite the sub .200 batting average, we’ve seen some glimpses of the bat.  The power plays obviously. He needs to commit to going to RF more.  I thought he looked extremely stiff in his ’25 audition. He looks like he has better flexibility and plate coverage this year; but the results have been inconsistent. He’s 25 in December. I think there is too much offensive potential (and team control) to give him away until you feel comfortable about Westburg’s health, but also think he’s looking at needing injuries in-front of him to stay an Oriole and find regular playing time in ’27.
• Cowser’s April was below what you’d expect from him. His May better than you’d expect. And is June was more in the ballpark. He’s slashing .227 / .319 / .373 right now.  My July 1st guess is that he’ll be one of the starting OF’s on Opening Day 2027, but he’d really benefit from finishing strong these next 3 months. How we feel about Cowser as an everyday player at the end of ’26, will certainly impact some of our perceptions on what’s possible for the ’27 O’s.   Similar take for Beavers.  The O’s (Albernaz) has said he believes Beavers can be a plus fielder.  Would like to see more of that the next few months.
• Basallo looks like will be an offensive force.  The arm is strong defensively.  Even as a part-time catcher (if Rutschman is back), he needs to refine his work behind the plate.  If Rutschman is traded, one of my concerns would be how will Basallo’s offense be impacted if he’s forced to catch more?
• After 14 combined starts during ’24 and ’25, Bradish has not consistently reached his ’23 levels (4th in the AL Cy Young balloting). His command has been an issue.  But we’ve also seen numerous games where he looked like his old-self. The optimistic take on the year so far is that he’s stayed available to make 17 starts.  Can he sprint to the finish?
• Holliday is 23 in December.  Last year was his first full season in the bigs. He had improvement in ’25 vs. his ’24 big league audition. This year started with the hamate bone surgery. Right now, he’s batting .196 through his first 102 ab’s of ’26.  He was the 1st overall selection of the ’22 Draft, and became the top overall consensus player in the Minors. I don’t need or expect the 22 year old to be a finished product. I do expect a player of his pedigree to start being more consistently additive than we’ve seen so far. Do think he’s getting closer to average defensively at 2nd. Better around the bag, movements more natural. I really disliked that the O’s were giving him time at 3rd in the Minors on his rehab. As if he needed something else to worry about.  Again, you start thinking about next year, part of that thinking will be determined by how Holliday finishes ’26.
• Shane Baz, Dean Kremer, and Brandon Young figure to make up 3/5s of the O’s ’27 Opening Day rotation.
• Ryan Helsley joined the O’s on a 2 year contract.  Albernaz said after the game today, he’s dealing with elbow discomfort and will get further testing. Not to jump to conclusions, but that feels a bit ominous. Hopefully he’s okay. He already missed roughly 6 weeks of this season.  Felix Bautista is hoping to rejoin the O’s in September.  A dream scenario would be having both healthy, available, and performing next year. The odds of that don’t feel great.
• Here is MLBTR’s Top 10 Free Agent’s To Be Power Rankings. Michael King, Casey Mize, Adrian Morejon, and Ian Happ all look like guys the O’s could possibly pursue.  A larger look at the Free Agent class is here. 
• Going back to Ward, would you prefer a larger investment in someone like Happ?  Cowser and Beavers in CF, and RF; with Enrique Bradfield and Nate George possible internal candidates to push for time at some point in ’27? Bradfield played 108 MiL games in ’24, followed by 76 last year. So far this year, he’s played just 40. There are no questions about his glove and speed. There are plenty of questions about his bat. Now you have to question his ability to stay on the field. Even if you wanted to hand CF to him for his glove, you’d be hard pressed do so, given his inability to stay available.

Alternative Scenario

Let’s say Rubenstein wants to move on from Elias, who are possible alternatives?

Jon Daniels – Former Rangers General Manager.  Currently a Senior Advisor with Tampa Bay.

Kim Ng – Former Marlins General Manager.  Currently outside the game entirely.

James Click – Former Astros General Manager.  Now VP of Baseball Strategy with Toronto.

Michael Fishman – Yankees VP / Assistant GM under Brian Cashman.

Amiel Sawdaye – Diamondbacks SVP / Assistant GM under Mike Hazen.  Baltimore native, Graduate of Pikesville High, and University of Maryland.

Cal Ripken Jr. –  The HOF, has an Ownership share, and is doing some Player Development work.  Obviously the name would sell, and the Ripken Way still carries weight. Especially with the current fundamental issues with the ML team.  Feels like Ripken would need to surround himself with a lot of Front Office experience.

The post Early Thoughts On 2027 And An Alternative appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

With the loss, the O’s are 38-43, putting them on-pace to win 76 games this year.

Some thoughts on what we’ve seen through the initial 81 games, and what awaits over the next 81.

Hasn’t Been Fun, But Not Dead Yet

The first half has been a difficult watch for Orioles fans.

Not just because they are 5 games under .500, but because the mediocrity seen so far this year is seen as a continuation of failed expectations which have plagued the O’s since the second half of the ’24 season.

They are in 4th place in the American League East, 10.5 games back of division leading New York.

That’s a big enough deficit to believe a division title is likely out of reach; and thus can be forgotten about at this point.

But at 2 games out of the 3rd Wild Card, and only 3.5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card; obtaining a playoff spot remains a reasonable goal.

Certainly one of the most significant reasons that we can still envision a run to the post-season as possible is because only the Division leaders and first two Wild Cards are at or above .500 currently in the American League.

Still, while the O’s have yet to play well for any extended stretch, they’ve done an admirable job of not being knocked out either.
There have been a couple of times the team was teetering, but they’ve been able to avoid complete disaster.

What’s It Going To Take?

The two teams which ultimately claim the 2nd and 3rd Wild Card spots in the American League will probably win between 85 and 90 games.

To finish with 85 wins, the O’s would have to go 47-34 the rest of the way.  That would be a .580 winning percentage over the next 81.
To finish with 90 wins, the O’s would have to go 52-29 the rest of the way. That would be a .642 winning percentage over the next 81.

There are only 4 teams in baseball right now that have a winning percentage at or above .580.

After the All-Star break in ’24, the O’s were .500 down the stretch.
Last year they they finished with 75 wins.
As we said above, their on-pace for 76 wins here in ’26.

Clearly they’ve dug a hole.
And they are in a position where a poor week of play could prove to be too much to overcome.

Mathematically they’re not facing some insurmountable hole.
Are they capable of 47 to 52 wins in these next 81 games?
I think answering that comes down to perspective.

If your perspective is that the O’s are 146-163 in their last 306 games and this is just who they are – that’s understandable.
The end of ’24 was disappointing.  ’25 was a mess.
There are similarities and differences with those rosters and this team.
My take is that I like the talent on the roster currently, and I think they’re pretty well positioned to take off here in the 2nd half.

What Is There To Be Optimistic About?

I’ll answer by asking the inverse, what has gone so right in the 1st half, that we can’t reasonably expect that to continue in the 2nd half?

Rico Garcia has pitched like an All-Star this year.
He might be able to bottle this up and continue this run for a few more months; but what he’s done is so far beyond expectations, it shouldn’t be a surprise if there is regression.

Yennier Cano is having his best year since 2023.
I feel pretty good about his ability to sustain this, but maybe he comes back to Earth some.

I liked Brandon Young as extended rotation depth to begin the year, I wouldn’t have expected him to have made 12 starts so far, and certainly wouldn’t have anticipated him being this good.
If you tell me he’s more likely to be a 5th starter going forward, or fall out of the rotation vs. maintain this current production – I get the argument.

If the answer is these three have been so good, it’s not reasonable to expect them to continue to produce at these levels – that’s off-set by the players we can expect more from.

In ’24, Gunnar Henderson slashed .281 / .364 / .529.   So far this year, he’s slashing .230 / .301 / .429.
Players have off years.  Maybe this will be a fully lost year for Henderson, similar to Ripken Jr’s ’92 after his 2nd MVP season in ’91.
Or maybe Gunnar will shake this first half funk and put up a second half closer to expected levels.

Adley Rutschman is having his best offensive year since ’23. He’s also now on his second IL stint.
Maybe he stays more available in the 2nd half?

The O’s offense has been fairly inconsistent, and not hot for any extended stretch.
Their still 8th overall in Runs Scored, including 3rd overall in the American League.

They’ve got four starters (Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Young) currently pitching well.
They’ve got reasonable other options in Trey Gibson, Dean Kremer, Cade Povich, and Chris Bassitt (with Kremer, Povich, Bassitt all getting closer to working their way back).

Ryan Helsley has returned to the bullpen.

Blaze Alexander has shored up the defense at 3rd, and been on fire offensively since the calendar turned to May.

Biggest Wild Cards To Obtaining A Wild Card?

A month ago today, Rogers had a 6.96 era.
He’s been able to drop that to 5.30 after his 7 shutout innings in LA vs. the Dodgers Saturday.
He’s been strong in June. If he’s able to sustain this and look the part of a front-end starter for the remainder of the year, obviously that’s transformative to the roster as a whole.

Sam Basallo has had a good start to ’26.
He’s talented enough he could just ‘Hulk’ out the rest of this year.

How about Jackson Holliday?
The 22 year old 2nd baseman has a .674 OPS in his first 85 ab’s this year (.690 last year).
Maybe he’s not ready to be more than this.
Maybe he really emerges in the 2nd half and breaks out?

Biggest Questions? 

• Kyle Bradish has been strong the last couple of turns. Will he hit a wall at some point after not pitching much the last two years?
• There are 32 games between now and the August 3rd MLB Trade Deadline. If the O’s are at-least 16-16 in this stretch, will O’s GM Mike Elias look to move some of the current Top 10 Minor League prospects for help to the Major League roster?  At the minimum, it seems likely the O’s bullpen will need to obtain a high leverage reliever.
• Again, I think Rogers is the biggest Wild Card for the current roster. If he can match this last month going forward, that’s the front-end starter production the O’s need. He probably has to continue to ascend if the O’s are going to like their post-season chances as the Deadline. If for some reason he falls off, but the O’s still like their overall position – would Elias be able to obtain a starting pitcher of note?
• Dylan Beavers is getting closer to return.  When he does, how does playing time sort out between himself, Colton Cowser, and Leody Taveras?
• What does the next 5 weeks look like for Andrew Kittredge, Keegan Akin, and Tyler Wells?  Helsley’s return should help the pen. As should the rotation improving in-front of them. We talked above that maybe we see Garcia, and Cano fall back a bit. O’s need this Kittridge, Akin, Wells trio to help.  Wells has struggled vs. RHH, but has yet to allow a run (7.1 innings) here in June.

The Alternative

I’ve struck a fairly positive tone here given that the O’s are 5 under .500, and 17 under for the last 306 games.

I think the O’s are in a good position to take off, but as I also said above; they are also in a position were another poor week could bury them.

So, if they continue to be middling or things go completely off the rails between now and the Trade Deadline, what happens then?

The biggest question would be what do you do with Rutschman?  This is the best he’s looked offensively in sometime.
Assuming this latest IL stint (concussion) is more precautionary vs. serious; he’ll be back soon.
This version of Adley is felt when he’s not in the lineup.
He’s under team control through the ’27 season.
You’d get more for him now with a 1.3 years of team control vs. trading him this off-season, or next year.
You could a build a winning 2027 team without Rutschman, but most people would probably think the O’s were waiving the white flag on ’27 if he’s moved this August.
You could of course bring him back for ’27, but again, you’d get less if you attempted to trade him later.

In a scenario where the O’s wind-up trading Rutschman this year, you’d have to think that Taylor Ward, and Rogers (both Free Agents to be) would be moved.

Helsley is under contract through ’27. If there is a sell-off, maybe he goes? Probably not.

Garcia would be moved.  Honestly I think there is a chance Garcia is traded even if the O’s believe their a contender come August.

If Kremer or Bassitt get back and are competitive, either of them could be attractive to someone. Bassitt a Free Agent to be.  Kremer under contract through ’27.

If the O’s are not feeling good about where they are at the Deadline, then Henderson likely hasn’t turned things around.
If he hasn’t, then there wouldn’t be any thought of trading him then with perceived value ‘down.’
You still have him under control through ’28.  At the minimum, the O’s would look to retool for ’27, hoping for a Gunnar rebounding leading to either ’27 contention, or his value swinging back-up for a trade.
On the other-hand, his ability is recognized by everyone. If he was made available now, with 2.3 years of team control remaining, there would be plenty of suitors making big offers.

If the O’s get to August, and trading off Rutschman was a legitimate option, Orioles Owner David Rubenstein would likely be forced into some type of public pronouncement regarding Elias.
Presumably Ownership wouldn’t sign-off on Elias moving Rutschman if Elias wasn’t going to be at the helm for the ’27 season.
And if the O’s are in a selling position at the Deadline, Elias’ status going forward will need to be clarified to the public.

The MLB Draft

The 2026 MLB Draft is July 11th – July 13th.

In many Mock Drafts, the O’s continue to be connected with Georgia Tech CF Drew Burress with the 7th overall pick.

So What Happens Here In The 2nd Half?

The Yankees are 10 games ahead of the O’s.  NY is 4th overall in runs scored, and 2nd in ERA.
If you want to say NY has proven to be a better team, that’s fair.

I don’t see anyone else that’s definitively more talented than the O’s in the AL.

I respect the other divisional foes – Tampa and Toronto –  but the Rays have little power, and the Jays have a below offense overall.

Seattle can pitch, the Athletics can hit.

Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota, Texas, Houston all have their own strengths and weaknesses.

A couple of these teams will kick things into a higher gear, and to be fair to the Rays; they’re already 10 games over .500.

But put the O’s roster up against any of them, and I don’t think it’s orange colored glasses to say the O’s are as talented as any of them.

As I’ve said, I think they’re pretty well positioned to make a run.

Now we will see if they can find their stride.

The post 81 Down, 81 To Go appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

They’re 2 games behind Toronto and Texas who are tired for the 3rd WC, with the Athletics also a game and a half ahead of Baltimore.

The O’s have been outscored by 35 runs, and have lost their last 4 games.
They are 7th overall in runs scored, 11th in slugging, and 13th in on-base %.
Baltimore is 24th overall in era.

Including tonight, the Orioles have 44 games scheduled before the August 3rd Trade Deadline.

Last year, the 2nd AL Wild Card won 89 games (.549 winning percentage), and the 3rd AL Wild Card won 87 games (.537 winning percentage).

The O’s will have played 112 games by the deadline (68 games played already, 44 games remaining).
To be on a 88 win pace (a .542 winning percentage) by August 3rd, the O’s will have to be 61-51 on August 3rd.
That means the O’s would need to go 30-14 ( a .681 winning percentage) over these next 44 games.

Now you can rightfully argue the O’s wouldn’t need to be at a 88 win pace on August 3rd.
They could go 57-37 (a .606 winning percentage) the rest of the way and arrive at the same year end 88 win level.
A .606 winning percentage over the next 44 games would have the O’s going a more reasonable 27-17 for that stretch.

But they’re at a point where they would have to put together a scorching 40-50 games, or sustained high quality over the remaining 94 games to be in position to earn their way to the post-season.

Some quick hits on the roster, and Front Office.

Gunnar Henderson

We’re nearing the middle of June, and the 24 year old has an OPS under .700.
Over the weekend, WBAL Radio said he was 2nd in baseball in 3 pitch strikeouts.
Clearly the year hasn’t gone to plan for the young SS.
As Gunnar’s struggles have extended, I’ve started to think about Nick Markakis.
Markakis had an outstanding career with the O’s and Braves. 15 years, just under 2,400 career hits.
Outstanding RF, and clubhouse presence.
He belongs in the Hall of Very Good.
I’m not disparaging Markakis at all, to say that as good as his career was; I had higher aspirations for him after his first 2 or 3 seasons.
In those first few seasons he looked more like a star vs. a very strong complimentary piece.
And I’ve thought about Nick, because I’m wondering if my expectations for Gunnar will also prove off – or if this subpar stretch will be a blip on his career record?
In 2024, Gunnar put up a 7.9 fWAR season. He made the game look easy.
Now he’s facing some adversity for likely the first time in his whole baseball playing career.
All of me believes he’s too talented to not be productive.
He dealt with right-should impingement in 2025, never looked right, and still posted a 4.8 fWAR season.
He’s generally struggled so far this year, and his current 1.6 fWAR still is 51st amongst all MLB position players.
The floor to me is that he gets out of this funk, and is a regular All-Star caliber player for years.
Does he get back to ’24 levels, and look like a guy that will perennially be in the MVP consideration?
We will see.
In the immediate, the O’s need him to flip a switch, and give the team more now.
One of the things about Gunnar that stood out in ’23 and ’24, is that he just looked like a guy that loves to play.
Right now, he looks like he has the weight of the world on him.
That is the burden of expectations – both externally and internally.
He’s the O’s best overall talent.
If he puts up a strong 44 games, the O’s will be in better shape at the deadline then they are today.
And if this rough stretch continues for him, it will be difficult for the O’s to overcome that.
If he agreed to an extension offer now, would that help ease the burden he is carrying in his shoulders?
Would he consider negotiating now?
Is he fully committed to reaching Free Agency and testing the market after the ’28 season?

Pete Alonso

The O’s locked Alonso up through the 2030 season.

He’s 31 now, 32 in December.
With a natural / expected aging-curve; 2026 is probably the best version of Alonso we see in an O’s uniform.

The defense has been better than advertised.
The players have pointed to his leadership.

The numbers aren’t horrible by any means, but they’re also not enough.
He’s carrying a .756 OPS into the game tonight (.850 for his career).
April was rough, May was good, June so-far a slight step-back.
The O’s could really use him to get on an extended run.
Also could use him to start giving the O’s more vs. LHP.

Adley Rutschman

Over 48 games, and 180 ab’s, he’s got a .832 OPS.  That’s a big jump from the last 2 years, and slightly above what we saw from him over ’22 and ’23.
After 37 doubles combined over the ’24 and ’25 season, he’s got 14 currently.
He did hit into some bad luck last year, but I think his approach has been improved here in ’26.
He’s missed the last 2 games going into tonight, and you felt his absence from the lineup.
His play over the next 6 weeks will help tell the story of this O’s team.
We’ve also now reached a point where there has to be real consideration of trading him this Summer if the O’s don’t start playing better.
Rutschman is a FA after the ’27 season.  If you move him by August 3rd, the acquiring team would be getting him with 1.3 years of remaining control.
An in-season move this year figures to bring a bit more than potentially moving him after the season ends.
If the O’s get up and over .500, and are in a Wild Card position at the deadline, Rutschman won’t be going anywhere.
But if you get to August 3rd, and the O’s are under .500 and still not looking consistently better; then you’d have to think there is some chance he gets moved.
I’m unsure if the O’s can find a deal that works for them and Henderson.
I do feel like a contract extension with Rutschman is possible.
His resurgence so far this year, coupled with the arrival of Sam Basallo (allowing Rutschman to be positioned for less time behind the plate) makes me more open to a Rutschman extension than I have been previously.

The Rotation

Currently the rotation is Bradish, Rogers, Baz, Young, and Gibson with Bassitt, Kremer, and Povich on the IL.

Bradish was 4th in the Cy Young balloting in ’23, and then limited to 14 combined starts over ’24 and ’25.
He’s made 13 starts this year, and I mostly feel good about him.
The 36 walks has been an issue overall, but he seemed to turn a corner in May posting a 2.80 era over 6 starts.
His first start in June was this past Saturday vs. the Jays, and that was a disappointing outing.
Everyone has tough days, but when you’ve got your best starter on the mound at home with a chance to win a series against a Division rival – it’s a let down when he gets knocked around a bit.
There is a lot riding on his arm. The O’s need him to immediately lock back in like he was in May.
Is it an unfair ask for him to be that strong and consistent each time out, after all of the time missed the last two years?

Rogers last three starts have been an improvement.  5/24, he allowed 4 er over 6 innings, all 4 coming in the 7th, and 6 strong scoreless.
That was followed by 1 er over 5.2 innings in Boston 6/4.  Last night he allowed 3 er over 5.2 innings, all of the runs coming on a 3 run homer in the Seattle 4th.
It was annoying to see that hanging slider crushed, and a crooked inning for the Mariners; but he didn’t collapse and gave the O’s a chance to win.
He’s dropped his era from 6.96 to 6.15 over those 3 outings, but yeah…he still has a 6.15 era.
He’s made 12 starts, and has 60 innings on the year.
If he makes 8 starts over these next 44 games, and continues to average 5 ip a start; he’d still have a 4.65 overall era even if he allows just 10 er over his next 40 innings of work.
Probably the biggest mistake of the off-season was the O’s needing Rogers to be a front-end starter here in ’26. Hoping he’d nearly replicate what he did over 18 starts last year.
Right now, I’m sure the O’s would sign-up for one extended hot 8 game stretch.
If he does that, that will either have better positioned the O’s for a WC run, or have Rogers regaining value as a trade chip if the O’s haven’t put things together overall.

Baz has a 2.13 era over two June starts.  For the year, I think he’s right at what you’d expect. A solid enough mid-rotation starter.
His last 5 starts overall have been very good, and give you some hope he’ll get on a sustained heater.

Young has made 9 very effective starts.  The O’s would be totally lost without his performance year-to-date.
If he can continue to regularly give the O’s a chance to win, that’s significant.
If he were to fall apart, that would also be significant.

Gibson is one of the O’s Top 5 prospects, and has already made 4 starts. With Bassitt joining Kremer on the IL, he’s currently needed.
Only 5 k’s in his initial 17 innings, but only 2 homers allowed too. He’s getting a lot of grounders.
I don’t like having to rely on Gibson in early June, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that he pitches like a league-average 5th starter right now either.

Seems like Kremer is on-pace to return in late June. Kremer had 170+ innings 2 of the last 3 years. After starting this year in the Minors, and suffering the quad injury; he’s had 2 outings for 11 total innings.
Bassitt went on the 15 day IL, retroactive to June 5th. Prior to this year, he had four successive 30+ start seasons with Toronto.
He hasn’t been a disaster with the O’s, but he hasn’t been good.  He might beat Kremer back to the rotation.

Out of that Baz / Young / Gibson / Kremer / Bassitt grouping; the O’s need 3 of them to be regularly reliable.
Baz answers one of those spots.
Have to be encouraged by Young right now.
Kremer has a track-record of being that guy with the O’s.
Bassitt obviously has the track-record overall; with questions about how much he has in the tank at age 37.
If the O’s are in a sell mode at the deadline, Kremer and Bassitt could be on the move.

The O’s chances of getting hot, are basically the tied to whatever odds you give Bradish and Rogers of getting hot.

Basallo, Holliday, Mayo, Cowser

Basallo is out of the lineup tonight with a sore wrist.  We said above it was noticeable the last two nights how the lineup looked different without Rutschman.
The lineup difference is even more pronounced when Basallo is unavailable.  The 21 year old is already a force. He had a .974 OPS in May (77 ab’s).
He’ll be getting more attention, and there will probably be stretches where he again looks 21.  But the talent is obvious to anyone. Ball sounds different off the bat.
His willingness to use the whole field impresses. He has the ability to be a night-to-night difference maker even now in the infancy of his career.

Holliday and Cowser have OPS’s just over .700.  Mayo is at .650.  Cowser has obviously come to life, going 18 for his last 62 (.290, .357, .597).
There will be other stretches where he struggles to make contact, but hopefully this stretch has reminded everyone there is ability there.
The O’s needed his resurgence. The next question for him is will he more time and produce vs. LHP?  Just 13 ab’s vs. LHP so far this year.

Holliday is hitting just .218, but he’s got a .323 on-base %, because he walks. He also hits RHP.  He is just 4 for 22 to start June. Because he has 228 games in the Majors, people forget his age. He’s just 22, and he’s not a finished product. Still, if you are looking for reasons the O’s could get hot, one scenario would be the game slowing down for Holliday and him regularly giving the O’s a lift. He might not be ready to do that, but it’s reasonable to expect some production there.

Mayo had a .716 OPS in May, and has a .717 OPS in June.  Over his last 30 days, he’s got a .875 OPS (69 ab’s, 6 homers). He’s clearly feeling more comfortable, likely helped by not wondering about Westburg returning. Also by getting his name regularly in the lineup.

It would surprise me if anyone says they know exactly what the O’s will get from this quartet the rest of ’26.
They have the ability and youth to swing both ways on the pendulum.

When I see this grouping in the lineup, I see a lineup with extended depth and potential.
It’s not out of the question that this group could just hit, and hit a lot the rest of the way.
It is probably more likely that each will have further growing pains.

Ward, Taveras, Alexander, J. Jackson

As noted above, the O’s are up to 7th overall in runs scored.
There are a lot of guys capable of contributing on a given night.

Ward has a .766 OPS for his career, and a .764 OPS for the season.
He has just 3 homers, but he has 16 doubles, and 58 walks.
The doubles pace will likely slow, and the homer count will likely jump.

Alexander might be my favorite player to watch most nights.
Just like how he plays the game, and his versatility.
I don’t worry about Mayo’s glove at 3rd, knowing that Alexander is available to replace him in close and late situations.

Taveras had a .694 OPS in May, and is just 4 of 25 (.345 OPS) to begin June.
Overall he has a .706 OPS for the season. Much like Young in the rotation, I don’t know where the O’s would be without his contributions so far.
I do wonder if he maybe needs a bit more rest, but he has been a regular before, playing 294 games with Texas in ’23 and ’24.
He’s struggling vs. LHP (.530 OPS, 50 ab’s.)

Jackson was strong in April, and struggled in May.
I like that he continues to be around as insurance for Holliday.

Beavers and O’Neill

Beavers is getting closer to a return. His oblique injury was unfortunate as he seemed to be coming on when he got hurt.
When he returns, I’d assume he’ll get most of his time in RF, but he, Cowser, and Taveras will rotate RF, and Center. Maybe once one of the three will get a game in LF.

I’m not sure where O’Neill’s ab’s come from at that point.
Outside of owed salary, I’m not sure where he fits on the roster.
I will say, I think O’Neill is a better hitter than we’re seeing right now.
He’s got a pitiful .511 OPS in 109 ab’s, with just 4 xbh’s.
His primary issue for his career has been staying available.
When he has been able to stay on the field, he’s been able to hit – with his two healthiest seasons both being 30+ homer years.
Him giving the O’s nothing is hard to watch.
He’s got a .118 / .196 / .137 split vs. LHP over 51 ab’s.

The Bullpen

Helsley threw a live bullpen session Monday.  Him returning should be a lift.

If you were selecting an O’s All-Star representative today, it’s probably Rico Garcia.
Which illustrates the volatility of relievers, but give it up to the 32 year old for his performance.
Already 30 outings, and he’s allowed 9 hits.
If the O’s play doesn’t improve, I could see the O’s trying to cash in and trade him.

Kittredge only has 13.2 innings, and his era is over 7; but for first time since joining the O’s last year, and rejoining them this year – I feel like I’ve seen what the Front Office liked recently.
The game log doesn’t back me up, but I’ve found myself trusting him more.

Cano is destroying RHH, holding them to a .376 OPS over 49 ab’s.

Wells has been rocked at home, and strong on the road.  He’s getting lit up by RHH.

I liked seeing Suarez back, but that 5 er, 2 inning outing in Boston was a disaster.
To his credit, he’s allowed 1 er over his next 4 innings.  Also had just 1 er allowed in 7.2 innings in May.

MASN’s Roch Kubatko had some good quotes today from O’s Manager Craig Albernaz on Anthony Nunez.

It was reported Monday that Felix Bautista began his throwing progression, and there is some thought he could return at some point late in the 2nd half.

If the O’s play well from here to the deadline, it’s likely going to be because the rotation has been solid enough.
If the rotation is solid, then the ‘pen will likely be solid enough too, especially if Helsley is back soon, and gives the ‘pen a bit more order.

But if we get to the deadline and the O’s are in position to ‘go for it’, you’d have to think that adding pen help would be a priority.

Deadline Thoughts

They’ve got a lot of games between now and the deadline.

Chances are they won’t get super hot or collapse.

They’ll likely be in the WC mix.

Elias will take things up to the deadline.

Based on what we’ve seen previously; he will probably trade off some pieces he considers replaceable for lottery tickets and team control.

Would he buy anything of significance?
Maybe if the team is generally pointing up, and he believes the available piece would provide a necessary boost.
But it would have to be right price for him to pay.

I’m not in love with the O’s Top 10 prospects (George, Irish,De Leon, Gibson, Aloy, Mejia, Estrada, Bradfield, Bateman, German); so I’d be pretty comfortable moving most guys not named Aloy to augment this existing roster.

The more likely scenario is that in addition to selling off pieces he considers replaceable / redundant; Elias will look to buy on the fringes… and they’ll largely go with what they have.

I expect they’ll add a reliever.
Kremer can help the rotation.

I’d like to see them be aggressive about adding the best SP they can, but I don’t think Elias will give up substantial team control for a rental.  Especially if the Orioles continue to be up and down to the deadline.

Potential SP Targets?

Wacha is having a good year, but he’s 34 and owed $14M next year.

Skubal is available and the dream. You want to go for it, there’s the guy.
How much player capital would you give up for the FA to be, when the ML roster hasn’t looked good enough for 2 months?
Obviously a healthy Skubal the rest of the way would address a lot of issues.

Casey Mize is the more realistic Detroit target.

Would love McClean, but he’s less realistic than Skubal.
Peralta is a FA to be.  He could be obtainable.

Robbie Ray is a FA to be.  The Savant page is all blue. Cost would be very minimal. Was pretty good last year.

The flip side to my thoughts here is that a total collapse is possible.

The O’s are 6 games under .500.   There is a path to them being in the WC hunt, but things could go completely off the rails too.

At that point, everyone not nailed down with team control could be on the move.

And the larger question would be, do you let Elias orchestrate a sell-off, if this becomes another season of failed expectations which will ultimately cost Elias his job?

As I outlined here, I’d continue to roll with Elias myself.

The post 44 Games Until The Trade Deadline appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

In homage – and with the usual apologies –  to former Baltimore Sun / Comcast Sportsnet / Baltimore Ravens Columnist John Eisenberg; here is my version of John’s Fact & Opinion column based on what we’ve seen from the Orioles over the initial two months of this 2026 season.

Fact: The O’s are entering June with a 28-32 record.

Opinion: If the O’s don’t comeback yesterday, and win today; the pitchforks and torches would have been out in Birdland tomorrow.  There are some O’s fans looking to lynch General Manager Mike Elias in the town square. Are these wins a stay of execution? A delay of the inevitable? Or can they be a catalyst towards a turn around?

Fact: Elias took the O’s GM job in November 2018.  Before he took the job, the O’s won 47 games in that ’18 season.  After taking the job, the O’s won 54 games in ’19.  ’20 was obviously a shortened-season with the pandemic. The ’21 team won 52 games. Things turned positive in ’22, as that team attempted to win some games, and had a winning season with 83 wins. The ’23 team won 101 games.  They fell back to 91 wins in ’24, going 33-33 after the All-Star Break.  In ’25, the Birds fell back under .500, finishing with just 75 wins.  O’s Manager Brandon Hyde was let go last May, and the O’s were 21-36 entering June 2025.

Opinion: Every GM is going to have moves which don’t workout.  Every GM is going to make decisions which can be questioned and second guessed.  There might also be organizational philosophies where some fans can never get get aligned with.  But ultimately GM’s are graded by a simple PASS / FAIL metric.  Did you win enough? Expectations certainly play a part in answering that question.

When you take over a team that looked like the 1961 New York Mets, there is a universal understanding you aren’t contending in the near-term.

It’s understood at that point that the new Administration would bring in their people, and their thinking.
It’s understood that anything of remaining value at that point is going to be moved.
You aren’t going to spend money to try and win 60 games.
You’ll make trades where possible for more lottery tickets, and team control.
You’ll try and build a group of players coming at the same time, and look to have a window of contention.
Ideally you will build in a way to have multiple bites at the apple, vs going in on any one particular year.
That when you have a cheap existing core capable of contending, that you’ll look to augment that group with help in Free Agency, or via trade of expendable assets.

I feel that’s what Elias generally did.
I’ve never considered him a Magician, or thought what he has been attempting to build was overly unique.
What I liked was that I thought he operated systematically and with a consistent plan that to me the O’s had lacked in the previous 35 years before he took the job.

There are decisions Elias has made which can be questioned.
There are philosophies which can be debated.
Maybe I’m the lone one locally, but I’m still in on Mike.
I’ll acknowledge his failings, but generally would still like his judgements at the helm; vs. seeing the O’s make wholesale changes in leadership.

That can be my opinion, but I can’t argue with anyone that retorts that he’s had enough time, and the O’s haven’t won enough.
That’s fair, and I can’t claim to be happy with the current results.

The O’s made things look easy in ’23, and expectations at that point were rightfully raised.
The O’s stepped back in ’24, but they still finished with 91 wins.  It felt worse, because they were just .500 after the All-Star Break.
Obviously the wheels came off last year, with the O’s using over 70 players, and the season being disappointing from start to finish.

So, when you have a mediocre 2nd half of ’24, followed by a poor ’25, and then ’26 doesn’t look much better after 60 games – it’s perfectly understandable that a lot of people are ready for a change in leadership at the top of the Orioles Baseball Operations.  That’s not a limited sample of games.  We’re looking at a 288 game stretch, where the O’s have gone 136-152.

That’s extended below-average mediocrity which feels like futility when the expectations of annual contention were set.

Fact(s): Jordan Westburg is out for the year, without a game played in ’26.  Felix Bautista will likely miss all of ’26.  Zach Eflin was limited to 3.2 innings before his season ended. Dean Kremer started ’26 at Norfolk, and was limited to 2 ML starts before hitting the IL.  He’s been out of action since.  Kyle Bradish started slow.  Trevor Rogers has an ERA approaching 7.  Ryan Helsley has been on the IL since the end of April. Gunnar Henderson has an OPS under .700.  Pete Alonso’s OPS (.752) is about 100 points below his career average.  Jackson Holliday has played just 12 games this year, after starting the year on the IL.  Colton Cowser had a really rough first 6 weeks.  Taylor Ward has 2 homers in 214 ab’s, after having 36 last year for the Angels. Chris Bassitt’s ERA is a run higher than last year.

Opinion: Given all of that, it’s somewhat remarkable the O’s are only 4 games under .500.  You can say Elias has culpability with some of these above items. Eflin having injury issues (even if it was right away), isn’t shocking. Nor is Bassitt maybe falling apart at age 37.  I’d argue that Elias recognized those possibilities, but was trying to have strength in numbers.  If X doesn’t perform, I still have Y. Just gets harder when options X,Y, and Z aren’t working or available.  Maybe the primary issue with the building of this ’26 roster in-particular was the reliance on Rogers.  Every prognostication on the ’26 Orioles (including my own) said that with the way the O’s were built, they were counting on Rogers to be a 3rd starter or better.  Really hoping he’d be more of a front-end starter vs. a reliable mid-rotation type.  After his 18 outings of dominance last year, I think it was realistic to expect Rogers to consistently be a positive contributor.  Instead, he’s got 6.84 ERA through 10 starts.  Rogers has had previous years where he was a back-end starter. Elias had to know that was a possible outcome for Rogers in ’26, and should have been factored into the decision making process with the rotation as a whole. But I can’t fault Elias if he didn’t have Rogers = complete implosion on his Bingo card.

Fact: Rogers had 1.2 innings vs. Boston on April 25th. He didn’t pitch again until 5/12.

Opinion: I didn’t love that decision. They could have given him a rehab outing. The decision with Rogers I really didn’t like, came this past Friday night vs. Toronto. Rogers came into the game really struggling, and then he comes out looking great for 6 innings.  It was a perfect opportunity to get him off the mound after 6 shutout innings, feeling good about his performance. Letting him have something to build off of. Instead, O’s Manager Craig Albernaz tried to get another inning out of him, and Rogers wound-up being tagged for 4 runs in the 7th.  I know the pitch-count was low, and Albernaz is dealing with limited options in the bullpen – but that wasn’t a good decision.  Rogers is the biggest variable on the roster right now to me.

Fact: Albernaz has completed his first 60 games as a Major League Manager.

Opinion: My opinion that Managers have limited impact in 2026 Major League baseball hasn’t changed, but I have no problem with the job Albernaz is doing with the parts of the job we can see.  Of course 98% of the job is the job we don’t see. The relationships behind the curtain.  Dealing with players, Management, even Ownership, the Media. Keeping everyone aligned even when things look bad. Focused on the next one. Getting a bunch of adults to walk in one direction.  The baserunning was atrocious last year, and that hasn’t improved.  Some other aspects of fundamentals seem to be lacking with parts of this roster, but I’m not placing that on Albernaz either.  By all accounts he’s stressed fundamentals from Spring Training on.  You’d have to say that despite their setbacks, they’ve shown some fight. Manager’s typically get deserved credit there.

Fact: At 28-32, the O’s are 4th in the AL East, 1 GB of Toronto who is in 3rd.  Toronto is currently the 3rd AL WC, tied with the Athletics. The O’s are 19-15 at home, and 9-17 on the road. They’ve been outscored by 38 runs. The Rays lead the division, and are 9.5 games up on the O’s. New York is the lead AL Wild Card, and 8 games up on the O’s.

Opinion: The O’s don’t need to be thinking about the Rays and Yankees anytime soon.  The focus needs to be getting up and over. 500, and on the White Sox, Jays, and A’s who are-front of them with the 2nd and 3rd AL Wild Cards.  And frankly can add Texas to that watch list (who is tied with Baltimore, at 1GB of the 3rd WC), along with Minnesota, Houston, and Boston who are all within 3.5 games of the 3rd WC.  It’s a bunched together American League amongst these potential WC teams.  Who is going to pull away and start to show consistent improvement?  You don’t want to get deep into the year, and the only chance of reaching the post-season is that 3rd WC.  Would like to get into that 2nd WC position, and feel more secure.  Last year the 2nd WC (Boston) won 89 games.  While Detroit and Houston were tied for the 3rd WC with 87 wins.  At 28-32, the O’s probably need to go something like 60-42 the rest of the way.  60-42 is a .588 winning percentage.  There are only 5 teams in baseball who currently have a winning percentage at .588 and above.

Fact: Samuel Basallo has a .860 OPS.

Opinion: Wow. The ceiling looks incredible.

Fact: Coby Mayo had a .716 OPS in May.  Blaze Alexander had a .881 OPS in May.

Opinion: I feel good about 3rd right now. It would have been great if Westburg had been healthy, and held down 3rd all year. I think he’s missed. Mayo is never going to be great (or even good) at 3rd, but he’s a little better than I expected. You can see some progress, and he continues to work.  All along we’ve said he’s going to make his bones with his bat. He’s getting more comfortable. The power is ridiculous. He plays with some swag, which I like. I think the bat might regularly produce here on out. I would still like to see him go to RF more often.  Alexander is a fun watch. Versatile. Strong defensively. Bat is showing something. He can replace Mayo in close and late situations.

Fact: Jackson Holliday has a .758 OPS through his first 12 games of ’26.  After an .805 OPS in April, Jeremiah Jackson had a .497 OPS in May.

Opinion: I began to worry about Holliday a bit when he had multiple rehab stints halted with continuing pain after has hamate bone surgery. It’s been good to see him get back, and show that the power has not been impacted. Him regularly producing would provide a lift, and further length to the lineup.  Despite his May struggles, I like J. Jackson.  I like him that much more, when you aren’t relying on him to carry you.

Fact: Shane Baz had a 4.45 ERA in 5 May outings after a 4.08 ERA in 5 April outings. Bassitt had a 4.62 ERA during May, after a 4.94 era in 5 April outings. Bradish had a 3.49 era in 5 May outings, vs. a 4.26 era over 5 April outings.

Opinion: Bradish has clearly turned a corner, and looks like the Bradish we expected.  Baz has allowed 5 er over his last 3 starts (20 innings), and is coming off of his best start to-date. Can’t say I’m super confident in Bassitt, but his start Thursday vs. Toronto was encouraging.

Fact: Brandon Young has made 8 starts. He’s 3-1, with 3.35 ERA. His chase % is excellent.

Opinion: His xERA of 4.28 is almost a run higher than his actual era, but encouraging all the same.  He entered the year at Norfolk as basically the 8th starter. Right now he’s regularly giving the O’s a chance. The Orioles would be in a world of hurt, without his performance year-to-date. Stuff appears to have ticked up from last year.

Fact: When the just ended homestand began May 20th, Cowser had a .520 OPS.  He’s headed to Boston with a .676 OPS.

Opinion: We said before the homestand we wanted to see him get regular ab’s and sink or swim. Great to see him get going.  A sub .700 OPS isn’t good enough over the long-haul, but he’s lifted his numbers to reasonable. He was at .768 for the ’24 season. That’s where you want to see him keep pushing to.

Fact: Dylan Beavers began doing swing work in the cage 3 days ago.

Opinion: He was on the upswing before the oblique injury.  Will be interested to see how Albernaz divides time between Cowser, Beavers, and Taveras when all are healthy and again available. Taveras had a .720 OPS in May after a .864 OPS in April.

Fact: Helsley is ramping up his rehab work, and is still aiming to return to the O’s bullpen sometime in June.

Opinion: Good, they need him. If the rotation is generally better in-front of the relievers, and they have a legitimate Closer in the back-end – then maybe the pen comes together. I generally like the current group of arms, but it’s a different feel when you don’t have that guy you count to lock things down available.

Fact: Entering play today, the O’s were 10th overall in runs scored, 10th in slugging, and 14th in on-base %.  They were 26th in ERA.

Opinion: If Henderson, Alonso, and Ward hit towards their expected levels in June – we could enter July feeling the O’s have a pretty strong offense.

The O’s are entering June 4 games under .500.
They haven’t played particularly well, but they aren’t buried.

I say that, fully acknowledging that had they lost these last two games – it would have certainly felt as they were underneath an avalanche.
That points to the idea they remain in a precarious position. Any set-backs, and they could fall off a cliff.

But they’re also in a position to climb.

We pointed out above they haven’t played well on the road.
June begins with 6 games on the road in Boston, and in Toronto.
If they can go win two road series vs. their division rivals, that would be a good start to the month.

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