Welcome to my final article trying to get you caught up on the Orioles. After looking at Adley Rutschman himself and the rest of the roster, I figured it was time to answer some big-picture questions about the organization as a whole.
Who’s next after Adley?
When Rutschman debuted on May 21, the obvious answer to this question would’ve been right-handed pitcher Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez is currently the #3 prospect in baseball and was dominating AAA this year.
However, he suffered a lat muscle strain on June 1 that will keep him out until at least September. Even if he’s healthy by September, it seems very unlikely he’d end up making his MLB debut in 2022.
Instead, the next major prospect to follow Rutschman is outfielder Kyle Stowers. On Monday, Stowers made his MLB debut in Toronto against the Blue Jays, going 1-for-3 with a double for his first MLB hit.
Stowers is currently in a unique position, earning a promotion that will likely be a temporary spot on the roster for the Toronto series. Anthony Santander is currently on the restricted list, which almost certainly means he isn’t allowed to enter Canada because he is unvaccinated. When the Orioles return to the United States after Thursday’s game, Stowers is expected to return to AAA..
While Stowers did earn his first promotion in an odd situation, it’s still very deserved. He was the breakout star of Baltimore’s farm system in 2021, hitting 27 homers across 124 games between high-A, AA and AAA. He then continued his production to start this year, providing a .901 OPS with 12 homers in 49 games at Norfolk.
Stowers is currently blocked from regular playing time in the majors by Santander, but just about everyone is expecting the 27-year-old Santander to be traded at the deadline to make room for the 24-year-old Stowers.
As for pitchers in AAA, there’s a top 100 prospect waiting in the wings: the left-handed DL Hall.
Hall is a pretty interesting pitching prospect because he’s excellent at getting strikeouts but also needs to reduce his walks. He currently has a very strong 14.7 K/9 through seven starts and 26.1 innings with Norfolk, but his 5.5 BB/9 demonstrates that his control could use some work. There are 63 pitchers in the AAA International League with at least seven starts and 25 innings and Hall’s BB/9 ranks 60th.
It’s harder to guess when Hall will be ready and if he’ll start his major league career as a starter or reliever, but a 14.7 K/9 is going to earn you a promotion at some point one way or another.
Who are the top picks they acquired from tanking and how are they doing?
In 2020, the Orioles selected Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad with the second pick of the draft after a 54-108 season and in 2021, they selected Sam Houston State outfielder Colton Cowser with the fifth pick in the draft after a 25-35 season. As for this year, they’ll have the first pick on July 17 after a 52-110 record in 2021.
After being drafted in June 2020, Kjerstad made his long-awaited minor league debut last weekend with the low-A Delmarva Shorebirds. Kjerstad’s delayed debut came from a combination of a heart condition known as myocarditis and a hamstring injury.
The best way to put Kjerstad’s timeline in perspective is by looking at another SEC player the Orioles selected in 2020: Mississippi State shortstop Jordan Westburg. Westburg was also taken in the first round with the #30 overall pick and recently earned a promotion to AAA Norfolk. No two players are the same, but it’s hardly unreasonable to think Kjerstad could also be in AAA right now if he had a clean bill of health.
Meanwhile, Cowser has had no health issues but is dealing with an underwhelming start at high-A Aberdeen. He’s striking out in 28.1 percent of his PAs after having a 12.6 percent strikeout rate in his final college season. Cowser’s batting average being below .250 is also discouraging for someone who was regarded as a contact hitter when he was drafted. Cowser hasn’t even played in 100 career minor league games yet, so I am by no means declaring him a bust, but we should still be honest when a top pick hasn’t hit the ground running.
It’s also worth noting that in the 2020 and 2021 drafts, the Orioles drafted Kjerstad and Cowser underslot.
The concept was explained in-depth in an BSL article last year, but if you want a quick summary: it’s a strategy where you take a weaker player with your top pick in exchange for getting better talents later in your draft.
According to the MLB.com pre-draft rankings, Kjerstad and Cowser were both ranked as the #10 prospect in their drafts and yet the Orioles took both of them in the top five. By drafting Kjerstad underslot, the Orioles were able to sign high school third baseman Coby Mayo in the fourth round, who is already regarded as a top 100 prospect by FanGraphs.
As for this year’s draft, there is a good chance the Orioles will draft a high school prospect with a successful father. Outfielder Druw Jones, the son of Andruw Jones and infielder Jackson Holliday, the son of Matt Holliday, are both considered among the top prospects for this year’s draft. If the Orioles prefer a college bat, then Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee seems to be the leading candidate.
The Orioles have largely been averse to taking high school players during the Elias regime, so don’t be surprised if they pass on Jones and Holliday for Lee.
Isn’t this team doomed because of the strength of the AL East?
To a certain extent, probably.
However, I do have good news in that department: there will be fewer games against the AL East starting in 2023.
Once the lockout ended, the new collective bargaining agreement included a very intriguing wrinkle for future schedules: there will be more interleague games and fewer games against division rivals. The Orioles will now play all 29 other teams for the first time next season.
They will go from playing 76 games against the AL East to 56 games in 2023, giving them 20 more chances to pick up wins without having to see someone like Vlad Guerrero Jr. or Aaron Judge in the opposing lineup.
This should presumably give them easier schedules going forward, but it won’t stop the rest of the division from also having a chance to win more against easier schedules.
If the Orioles win 60% of their games against the NL but the New York Yankees win 70% of those games, then their new schedule won’t make winning the division any easier, even if it leads to more wins. A weaker schedule for the Orioles is also a weaker schedule for the other four teams in the AL East.
When the Orioles won the division in 2014, they were 47-29 against the AL East, while the 2012 Wild Card team was a similarly strong 43-29. The 2016 Wild Card team was a less impressive 40-36 within the division, but it was still four games above .500 in a division where only the Tampa Bay Rays ended the year with a losing record. So in summary, fewer games against the AL East could certainly increase Baltimore’s winning percentage, but they still need to be able to have a winning record against the rest of the division to have a serious chance at returning to the postseason.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).