As we all now know, the Ravens have fired Offensive Coordinator Marc Trestman following Sunday’s 16-10 loss to the Washington Redskins. We’ll take a look at the analytics behind the Ravens offensive performance from this entire season and compare it to the entire league in a ranking presentation for multiple situational analytics. Keep in mind that the Ravens have a “franchise QB” and that means something in this league.
The statements from Head Coach John Harbaugh were professional:
“After very careful consideration, I have decided to make a change to our offensive coaching staff and have replaced Marc Trestman with Marty Mornhinweg as offensive coordinator for the rest of the season. I appreciate and respect the efforts and contributions Marc has made to the team since his arrival. Marc is a good person and an excellent football coach.”
Discuss this thread and more on the message board.
Joe Flacco’s statement after the loss to Washington had a slightly edgy tone to it: “Right now, we’re playing to win on the last drive or have our defense hold on the last drive, and it’s not a good formula.”
That formula changes as Mornhinweg will be Flacco’s fifth offensive coordinator in nine seasons. Cam Cameron, Jim Caldwell, Kubiak and Trestman have also held the position. Cameron and Tressman are both on the streets while Caldwell (Detroit) and Kubiak (Denver) hold head coaching positions in the league. Perhaps this move will springboard Mornhinweg back in to the head coaching ranks of the NFL. He was the head coach in Detroit from 2001-2002. Mornhinweg inherits the play calling duties for a team fortunate to have a franchise QB. Many teams wish they had one but the performance of the offense should be evaluated through that reality. Franchise QBs are hard to come by so if you are squandering that asset – we’ll give someone else a chance.
The ranking of NFL offenses generally focuses on yards per game and points per game. Baltimore was 14th in the league in offense last year, averaging 359.3 yards per game. The Ravens are currently the NFL’s No. 22-ranked offense in both 338.2 yards per game and 18.8 points per game. This is where Q-scores come in to evaluate performance based on a combination of starting field position, yardage and drive result. Doing this allows all drives to land on a singular success continuum. Statistics on these Q-scores results in situational analysis of performance. Let’s see where this takes us with the Ravens in 2016.
In tabular form (less exciting)
| week | win | TEAM Game | Season TEAM | Trend TEAM | OFF Game | Season OFF | Trend OFF | DEF Game | Season DEF | Trend DEF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W | 24 | 24 | 24 | -24 | -24 | -24 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| 2 | W | -25 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -14 | -14 | -62 | -6 | -6 |
| 3 | W | 2 | 0 | -2 | -19 | -16 | -15 | 44 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | L | 24 | 6 | 8 | 51 | 1 | 12 | -2 | 8 | 5 |
| 5 | L | -28 | -1 | -6 | -55 | -10 | -11 | 69 | 20 | 30 |
This table gives the Q-scores for the Team, OFF and DEF in each GAME individually. It also give the season-to-date average (Season) for each week where each previous week is equally weighted. It also gives the trend value for the Team, OFF and DEF which uses only the current and previous 3 games with a decreasing weight value giving an indication of how well they are currently playing or currently trending. Compared to the Season value are they trending up or down? The Season and Trend value gives you some insight. The metric is created so that “zero” is “neutral” performance. The game has a winner and loser but a zero metric value has even performance for both teams – a “tie” in terms of overall drive performance. How is that possible – this link will give you some insight into the formulation of Q-scores and GameMaps.
| Team | PPG | Team | Yds/GM | TEAM | All Drives OFF Q-scores AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 35.0 | ATL | 457 | ATL | 124.9 |
| SD | 30.4 | DAL | 397 | DAL | 119.1 |
| PHI | 28.8 | CAR | 392 | PHI | 97.7 |
| NO | 28.5 | OAK | 392 | OAK | 86.3 |
| OAK | 28.4 | PIT | 386 | NO | 79.3 |
| PIT | 27.8 | NO | 386 | PIT | 49.0 |
| IND | 27.4 | NE | 377 | IND | 42.0 |
| DAL | 25.8 | SD | 373 | WSH | 38.9 |
| DEN | 25.4 | CHI | 372 | SD | 38.5 |
| ARI | 25.0 | CIN | 366 | DET | 38.3 |
| CAR | 24.6 | WSH | 366 | MIN | 38.2 |
| GB | 24.5 | PHI | 364 | CIN | 37.1 |
| DET | 23.8 | ARI | 363 | BUF | 33.7 |
| MIN | 23.8 | IND | 359 | DEN | 33.1 |
| BUF | 23.4 | TEN | 358 | NE | 17.8 |
| WSH | 23.0 | SEA | 358 | GB | 7.3 |
| NE | 22.8 | NYJ | 352 | NYJ | 5.6 |
| SF | 22.2 | DET | 350 | SEA | 4.7 |
| JAX | 21.0 | NYG | 350 | JAX | -3.7 |
| KC | 20.8 | CLE | 349 | KC | -5.9 |
| SEA | 19.8 | KC | 339 | CAR | -10.0 |
| BAL | 18.8 | BAL | 338 | BAL | -13.1 |
| TB | 18.8 | TB | 336 | ARI | -14.3 |
| CIN | 18.4 | DEN | 327 | NYG | -18.0 |
| NYJ | 18.4 | GB | 322 | CHI | -23.2 |
| TEN | 18.4 | JAX | 321 | TEN | -28.6 |
| NYG | 17.8 | HOU | 310 | TB | -32.3 |
| MIA | 17.6 | BUF | 307 | SF | -40.3 |
| CLE | 17.4 | MIA | 304 | CLE | -44.1 |
| CHI | 17.0 | MIN | 303 | HOU | -44.6 |
| HOU | 16.4 | SF | 291 | LAR | -50.8 |
| LAR | 16.4 | LAR | 284 | MIA | -65.9 |
How do the points compare to years past?
Q-scores compared to yardage and points in tabular form below. The Ravens rank exactly 22 in all three categories shown below.The “All Drive OFF” column is slightly different from the table above for each game. The five games season table above weights each game equally. The table below weights each drive equally. The numbers come out quite similar especially as the season progresses.
| Caleb Henderson | Redshirt Junior |
| Tyrrell Pigrome | Sophomore |
| Gage Shaffer | Redshirt Sophomore |
The acceptance of this performance metric now allows the conversation about situational performance to focus on Q-scores and not points or yards. The Q-score smartly combines the starting field position, yardage covered and drive result. The Ravens and their ranking within the entire league based on Q-score for the following situations:
All Drives – DEF: 6th
All Drives – Team: 16th
Starting field position (OFF avg – DEF avg): 28th with a value of -5.1 yards.
The Ravens offensive drives have started 5.1 yards further from the end zone than their opponents have started. Take away: The Ravens offense consistently has a longer field than their opponents. Opponents have had much more favorable starting field position – advantage opponents.
1st Half OFF: 21st, DEF 3rd
3rd Qtr OFF: 26th
Coming out of halftime poorly is very memorable. I recently posted about what happens at halftime in football games on the coaching side. Link here.
Short field (starting field position less than 55 yards to end zone) OFF: 22nd, DEF 21st
Responding to a TD scored by opponent’s offense: 26th (how OFF responds)
Responding to a TD scored by our offense: 7th (how DEF responds)
Responding to a Turnover committed by opponent’s offense: 26th (how OFF responds)
Responding to a Turnover committed by our offense: 16th (how DEF responds)
Responding to a “3 and punt” drive by opponent’s offense: 10th (how OFF responds)
Responding to a “3 and punt” drive by our offense: 11th (how DEF responds)
Offensive drives not ending in TD or FG (non-scoring drives): 18th
Total team ranking for non-scoring drives: 16th
I will do this again in 5 weeks and compare these exact same analytics and we’ll see what has changed. Is Mornhinweg the answer? Let’s allow the data to speak for itself and then we’ll add the necessary commentary.
Will the change prove appropriate? Gabe does nice job previewing the Ravens vs Giants. The upcoming week should be interesting – 4-2 is quite different from 3-3 and 3 game losing streak. I agree with Gabe – Ravens find a way to win on the road. They just need to stop losing in front of the home fans – that never ends well.
Dr. Guyader is the Owner / Founder of The Q5.com, which specializes in Football Visualizations and Drive Analytics. Additionally, Guyader has 10 years of Division I football experience coaching top-tier and historic programs. From guiding third round NFL draft pick Ramses Barden for four seasons at Cal Poly to converting 6-foot 10-inch lineman Ali Villanueva to wide receiver at the United States Military Academy at West Point, Andy knows how to coach on the field and how to game-plan in a meeting.