First, Some Business…

We’ve had two off-field developments within the past several days that could impact the future of college football.

First, the Protect College Sports Act passed a Senate vote by a wide majority. The bill would enshrine several things intended to bring stability that college sports leadership have been unable or unwilling to implement on their own within existing laws. I’ll go into more details and likely impact if/when it becomes law, but in short it will cap compensation for players via both school revenue sharing and NIL, limit individual player transfers to one throughout their eligibility, limit eligibility to five years within the age range the NCAA recently attempted to institute, limit conference expansion, and require schools to maintain a minimum number of non-revenue sports (both women’s and men’s). It will also give the NCAA an antitrust exemption that will allow the organization to enforce the rules in the bill. It faces an uncertain future in the House, and a ticking clock, as the current Congress concludes at the end of this year with midterm elections looming next month.

The other development is based on reporting from Yahoo! Sports’ Ross Dellenger on impending College Football Playoff expansion. Dellenger reports that multiple sources tell him that expansion to 24 teams is coming, and it’s only a matter of when and what exactly it will look like. It appears to be a compromise between competing desires between the two conference powers; the Big Ten and SEC. The Big Ten was pushing for a 24 team playoff comprised mostly of automatic bids for the Power Four conferences, while the SEC preferred a 16-team format that took the top-ranked teams, regardless of conference affiliation except for guaranteeing one spot to the top G6 team. Now it looks like it will be the Top 24 teams, with the G6 guaranteed one spot.

The new playoff is expected to replace conference championship games, which have lost a lot of significance in the expanded CFP era. There is still a matter of needing to make the conferences whole for the money they will lose without those games — the SEC in particular makes about $100M annually for its title game — but it doesn’t sound like that will be an issue. ESPN is currently in an exclusive negotiation window for the broadcast rights that ends October 9, and then the CFP can take it to the open market. FOX now seems very interested in getting a piece, despite being conspicuously absent from bidding when the 12-team model was up for grabs.

Dellenger’s sources indicate the first round is likely to begin the first weekend in December, the traditional weekend for conference title games. The second round, likely to be played at the home stadium of higher seeded teams, won’t be until the third weekend in December. The Saturday in between will continue to be the exclusive domain of the Army-Navy game and Heisman Trophy presentation. What would happen should either Army or Navy make the CFP is not yet determined.

Who Has Separated?

At this point in the season teams that are separating themselves are those headed in the wrong direction. Starting with teams that made the CFP last year, Oklahoma is not in good shape after following-up their loss at Michigan with an uninspiring 14-6 win against New Mexico and then a 41-13 pasting at Georgia. With Texas up next week, followed by five more teams currently in AP Top 25, the Sooners are probably playing for bowl eligibility and perhaps to save Brent Venables’ job.

Texas A&M is another ’25 playoff team facing a very difficult, if not nearly impossible, pathway back. After a shocking 31-21 loss to Kentucky at home, they had the misfortune of facing a salty LSU squad in Death Valley coming off a bitter loss the week before. Coach Mike Elko has been noncommittal on the starting status of QB Marcel Reed, but there doesn’t appear to be much in the way of options behind him. Could be a tough year in College Station.

Michigan got their just desserts by losing on the final play to Iowa (see Week 1 for that reference). The Wolverines offense just isn’t good enough, and with games against Indiana plus road trips to Oregon and Ohio State left, it probably won’t even matter how the playoff selection committee views that WMU game.

Staying in the Big Ten, what a mess at USC. Losing to Oregon (again) is one thing. Losing to Oregon’s backup quarterback, in the wake of a dirty and classless incident that sent starter Dante Moore to the hospital might be the nadir for the Lincoln Riley era. That game had a similar vibe to Oregon’s trip to Penn State last year. The Lions returned many key players from a team that had made the CFP semifinal the season prior and believed it was finally their year. They had that particular game circled the moment the schedule was released — it was their prime time “white out” game. Then they fell apart in the decisive moments and lost in overtime, and never recovered. James Franklin was fired just two weeks later. USC can still save their season, but it feels so similar to ’25 PSU. I would not be shocked if AD Jen Cohen is putting out feelers to see if the $70M-plus buyout they’d owe Riley could be scraped together. She can at least make the plea that she wasn’t the one who made the mistake of hiring him.

Every Week Is Different

We shouldn’t be too surprised that the week after Ole Miss hung on for an exhilarating win — against the ex who left them at the CFP altar for their longtime nemesis, then showed up at their home with said nemesis in tow — that the Rebels fell completely flat on the road in a 52-28 loss at Florida. Being without RB Kewan Lacy, and QB Trinidad Chambliss playing through a thigh bruise, didn’t help, but didn’t affect the outcome either. They have this weekend to heal before a trip to Vanderbilt, but tough matchups against Texas and Georgia loom, so this one didn’t leave them much margin for error.

Some Good Surprises

Was Oklahoma State’s ugly Week 1 loss at Tulsa an aberration, and the team that the very next week snuck up and pants’d Oregon is the real Cowboys? An impressive 41-24 win at West Virginia got the AP voters’ attention, as OSU debuted at #19. Coach Eric Morris followed a familiar pattern for G6-to-P4 coaches by bringing a lot of his players from North Texas last year to Stillwater with him, and after a tough start it appears to be paying off.

If you are a power conference school in search of a new head coach, it would appear you should look no further than Harrisonburg, Virginia. That of course is the home of James Madison University, who gifted Curt Cignetti to defending national champ Indiana, and now has shared the love with the west coast in the form of Bob Chesney, who has UCLA off to a 4-0 start and ranked #23. The current Dukes coach is a familiar name — Billy Napier. Unlike his predecessors, Napier does have power conference head coaching experience, and it did not go well (he was 22-23 in 3-plus seasons at Florida). Perhaps it’s only Big Ten schools that benefit from the JMU pipeline?

Doubling back to the status in the Magnolia State, how about the Mississippi State? Jeff Lebby’s crew sport an impressive win at Minnesota, drove another nail in Shane Beamer’s coffin at South Carolina, then knocked off #19 Missouri Saturday. We’ll see just how real the Bulldogs are this weekend, as they host Alabama.

Top 10

1. Georgia — Ole Miss was primed for a let down, but that level of domination keeps them at the top for me

2. Texas — It wasn’t pretty, but they got the job done in Knoxville, never an easy place to play. I’ll certainly hear any arguments I should have them at #1 like the others

3. Notre Dame — Style points are important with a relatively soft schedule, and they’ve done it so far.

4. Ohio State — Will they take care of business at Kinnick Saturday, or meet the same fate as many other ranked teams have?

5. Miami — Wake Forest pushed the Hurricanes a bit in Week 3 at Winston-Salem. Another potentially sneaky road trip to Clemson awaits, and they’d be wise to take care of business  

6. Indiana — Northwestern gave them enough of a scare that it’s time to ponder whether they adequately replaced the experience-heavy title team

7. Alabama — That 45-17 Week 2 win at Kentucky is really holding up nicely

8. LSU — The Tigers really took their frustrations out on Texas A&M

9.  BYU — Mark your calendar now for Oct 17 when they host Notre Dame. Provo is gonna be rabid.

10. Florida — Great start for GA Tech transfer QB Aaron Philo

No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State — Noon ET, ABC

Line: Alabama -6, O/U 60.5

Can you name the last Mississippi State quarterback to defeat Alabama? If you guessed Dak Prescott, you’d be….incorrect. It was Wesley Carroll back in 2007. Carroll did not have a great day then — he was just 9/21, 100 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT. Lucky for him his Tide counterpart, John Parker Wilson, had a slightly worse day — including an endzone-to-endzone Pick Six. Alright, that’s enough history. Simply pointing out this series has not exactly gone well for MSU.

Focusing on the present, the Tide have mostly toyed with their opponents thus far, the closest win being 50-36 against Florida State, a game they actually trailed 21-6 early in the 2nd Qtr before emphatically storming back. While Alabama’s defense has been stingy overall, that Florida State showing (471 yards allowed, 8/15 3rd downs converted, 2/3 4th downs) raises a red flag. Mississippi State counters with quarterback Kamario Taylor, who torched Missouri for 360 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 win that kept the Bulldogs unbeaten and pushed them into the rankings. This one has the makings of a high-scoring affair and could be defined by whichever defense can get the crucial stop. I don’t think that favors the Bulldogs even with home field and over 40,000 cowbells behind them.

Alabama win/cover

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa — 3:30pm ET, CBS

Line: Ohio State -14.5, O/U 45.5

Should we be a little concerned with Ohio State’s defense? First it was their 4th Quarter collapse at Texas, then last week they gave up 199 yards rushing to Illinois on 6.0 per carry. They did get stops on 6 of 14 3rd downs, but that’s an eyebrow-raising number. Of course, this is Iowa they’re playing, who have averaged just 18 ppg against power conference teams so far. The Hawkeyes win, especially at home, with their defense and field position game that tends to stress offenses used to scoring at will. But they haven’t seen anyone like WR Jeremiah Smith, who had an insane 12 receptions for 217 yards and 4 TDs against the Illini last week. The Hawkeyes must pressure QB Julian Sayin and not give him ample time to find Smith, or this one won’t be close.

Kinnick Stadium is known as the place where Top 5 teams go to die. Since 2008 the Hawkeyes have gone 5-2 against the Top 5 at home. I don’t think they will make it 6-2, but I’m not a fan of the 14.5-point spread either.

Ohio St win/Iowa cover

No. 8 Florida vs. No. 25 Missouri — 3:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Florida -5.5, O/U 57.5

Am I the only one who doesn’t understand the Missouri love? After an 8-5 ’25 season, returning just 49% of their production per SP+ (76th), they climbed to 19th after wins over Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kansas and Troy. They played Mississippi State tight, but gave up two 4th Qtr TDs to lose yet still sit at the edge of the Top 25. They’ll be facing an offense that has averaged nearly 533 yards per game against defenses better than theirs. By the way, the Tiger D is just 104th in defensive EPA per rush and misses and average of 3.6 tackles per game. Yuk. Offensively the Tigers do move the ball well (418.8 ypg) but they struggle to finish drives (they’ve scored on only 76% of possessions in the red zone).

Could Florida experience a letdown on the road after their big thumping of Ole Miss last week? Of course. But my radar says they take care of business in Columbia.

Florida win/cover

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Contender or Pretender?

It’s hard to argue the most disappointing team so far has been Oregon. After needing another 4th Quarter comeback to sneak past pesky, underrated Boise State again in Week 1, the Ducks hit the road to take on Oklahoma State. Oregon defeated the Cowboys 69-3 last season, and OSU began this season with an ugly 24-10 loss at Tulsa. This should have been a tuneup for Oregon, even on the road. Instead they face-planted in a 39-31 loss. The Ducks’ offensive line, which I had questions about headed into the season, struggled all day to open holes for the running game (just 90 yards on 3.0 ypc) and protect QB Dante Moore. Shocking, though, was how bad the defense played. They allowed 554 total yards, 237 on the ground at nearly 6 yards per rush.

In the 12-team playoff era, no Power 4 team is out with one loss, especially an early-season, non-conference loss. But Oregon has really put themselves in a hole. Unless Oklahoma State’s Week 1 loss was an aberration and they go on to wreak havoc in the Big 12, this loss will look very bad on Oregon’s resume. Such that 9-3 seems very unlikely to get them in the playoff. With remaining games at USC, at Ohio State, and against Michigan (more on them in a bit), Dan Lanning had better get his defense right or this season will fall far short of expectations.

Will the Real Wolverines Please Stand Up?

Maybe Michigan was looking ahead to their big Week 2 tilt with Oklahoma visiting the Big House when they sleep-walked through 60 minutes (or, I guess, 59 minutes and 59 seconds) in a controversial Week 1 win over Western Michigan (a.k.a. The Bail Mary). Despite his last-second heroics, QB Bryce Underwood struggled against WMU to the point head coach Kyle Whittingham was noncommittal on his status as the starter.

But Underwood did start what was billed as a matchup of marquee QBs with his Sooner counterpart, John Mateer. And while Underwood shined at times, particularly on a 38-yard touchdown run, his passing numbers were pedestrian in what was largely a defensive slugfest. Unlike Mateer, who threw a costly interception deep in his own territory that set up Michigan’s other touchdown, Underwood was turnover-free, and that made the difference.

As big a win as this was for the Wolverines, it’s hard to see a playoff contender with their current offense. While this loss shouldn’t reflect too poorly on Oklahoma’s resume, they continue to have offensive issues of their own. In what looks like a brutally tough SEC, they have to be viewed as a fringe playoff contender right now.

A G6 Leader Emerges

While Boise State’s marquee matchup of the season may have been Week 1 in Eugene, Saturday’s 38-20 home victory against Memphis will likely be far more consequential. After Memphis dispatched of UNLV in Week 1, the Tigers went back West to face the Broncos, and jumped out to a 17-3 lead early in the 2nd Qtr thanks to several big plays. But it was downhill after that, as the Broncos outscored the visitors 35-3 the rest of the way. Not only does this establish Boise State as the G6 team to beat, but it gives an opening to other Pac-12 hopefuls that they could have a leg-up on the American conference champion if they can win their own conference.

Showdown in the Lone Star State

Easily the game of the season thus far was then-#1 Ohio State visiting Austin against then-#4 Texas. The Buckeyes dominated for nearly three quarters and led 23-3, and frankly it should have been (and ultimately needed to be) a bigger lead than that. The Longhorns made a lot of early mistakes, but cleaned it up and stormed back with touchdowns on each of their last three possessions to pull ahead 24-23 with 25 seconds remaining, completing one of the biggest wins for Texas in many years.

The Buckeye’s offense went stagnant in the 4th — their possessions were a 3-and-out, a 7-play drive that resulted in a missed field goal attempt, and a game-ending interception. Their defense couldn’t get off the field when it mattered most — Texas ran a total of 40 plays on their three TD drives.

Last year ‘Horns coach Steve Sarkisian was quick to claim Texas was punished by the CFP selection committee for losing a close game (14-7) in Columbus last season and missing the playoff as a 9-3 team. Consistent to his word, he stated Monday that Ohio State should not suffer the same fate if they end up going 9-3, or else more and more big name teams will stop scheduling these marquee non-conference games. We’ll see how it plays out for OSU, but Sarkisian makes a fair point. Either way this is a great resume-building win for the Longhorns who face a rough schedule in SEC play.

Top 10

1. Georgia — The Bulldogs have yet to be tested by a strong opponent, and won’t be until Oklahoma visits Athens in Week 4. But they haven’t lacked for style points

2. Texas — Some sloppy play in the first three quarters of the OSU game keeps them just behind the Bulldogs for now.

3. Notre Dame — Another team whose style points will have to do the talking. Their schedule is pretty soft until an October 17 trip to BYU.

4. Ohio State — The Buckeyes had an enormous road win in their grasp, and couldn’t close.

5. Indiana — Feels like the Hoosiers are just on cruise control until their Oct 17 trip to Columbus. 

6. Texas A&M — A very convincing win over Arizona State has the Aggies in strong position as the SEC schedule begins.

7. Miami — The Hurricanes are averaging 61 points per game so far. They need to avoid a letdown before their Nov trip to South Bend, something they’ve struggled with in the past.

8. LSU — Death Valley may still have crime scene tape marking off the field after what they did to Clemson in Week 1. Their trip to Ole Miss this week should be appointment viewing.

9.  Ole Miss — See above.

10. Oklahoma — The offense remains a big concern for the Sooners, even with a healthy John Mateer.

No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech — Friday 8:00pm ET, FOX

Line: Texas Tech -7.5, O/U

We have a benefit in evaluating this one because these two teams already share a common opponent: Oregon State. Both games were more competitive than expected, with OSU covering by double-digits in each, which might simply say more about the Beavers than either the Cougars or Red Raiders.

After a tumultuous offseason for Tech regarding the QB position, the Red Raiders ended up staying in-house with third-year player Will Hammond. Hammond’s results were somewhat underwhelming against both Oregon State and Abilene Christian considering the competition. The Cougars roll with the much more experienced Connor Weigman, who also had mixed results against OSU and a brief Week 2 in a blowout win over Southern. Still, I give a slight edge to Weigman, even headed into a hostile road environment.

I think this game will come down to the defenses. While Tech is more talented on paper, especially up front, Oregon State gouged them in the passing game pretty good — to the tune of 417 yards and 8.0 yards per attempt. Also Houston’s offensive line seemed to get a lot more push against the Beavers than Tech did.

I think I smell an upset here.

Houston win/cover

No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville — 3:30pm ET, ESPN

Line: Louisville -1.5, O/U 59.5

It’s the second of three ranked matchups in Week 3, and it feels like a pivotal early matchup in the ACC. My concerns over the inexperience of Cardinals QB Lincoln Kienholz have largely been assuaged after a strong showing in a heartbreaking 41-38 loss to #8 Ole Miss in Memphis. But as the final score would indicate, I do have concerns over the state of Louisville’s defense — particularly the pass defense, which would seem ripe for Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashlee and QB Kevin Jennings to exploit. The Cards have also been pretty sloppy so far, averaging 86 penalty yards per game.

I think another road team pulls an upset.

SMU win/cover

No. 7 LSU vs. No. 8 Ole Miss — 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: LSU -3, O/U 59.5

Is it too much to ask for just one week free of any Lane Kiffin-connected drama? I was all set to publish this article 24 hours ago when suddenly the news dropped — LSU QB Sam Leavitt was listed on the Wednesday injury report as doubtful. Per SEC rules, that would indicate a less than 25% chance of being available to play. At no time during LSU’s Week 2 game against Louisiana did Leavitt appear to suffer any injury, nor did Kiffin say anything about his health prior to the release of the injury report. Is this just gamesmanship in attempt to tweak Kiffin’s former employer, towards whom he no doubt still feels aggrieved for not allowing him to coach Ole Miss in the CFP after he announced he’d be leaving for LSU? If so, he better hope no one at SEC HQ finds out, as that would no doubt be a violation that could lead to significant punishment from a conference that is already pretty fed up with his schtick.

Anyway, I am going to take this information at face value and assume Leavitt likely will not play. He’s been shaky at times so far this season, and has 4 INTs to just 2 passing TDs (he’s rushed for 5 TDs though). With him out, the Tigers will be relying on either Elon transfer Layden Clark or USC transfer Husan Longstreet, who has attempted 16 passes in his college career thus far. Considering how hostile and emotionally charged the environment in Oxford will be Saturday night, that does not sound like a winning formula.

Ole Miss win/cover

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Coaching Carousel

Yep, it never stops. So here are some of the new faces in new places:

No need to rehash all the Lane Kiffin drama, but he’s now in Baton Rouge and will lead his LSU Tigers into Oxford for a Week 3 matchup against his former Ole Miss team, who are now led by Lane’s former defensive coordinator, Pete Golding.

Penn State pulled the plug on the James Franklin era by hiring Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. Franklin, meanwhile, will try to reboot a Virginia Tech program that has fallen hard over the past decade.

Former Utah coach Kyle Whittingham stepped down from the post he held for 22 seasons, then went to Ann Arbor to take over a scandal-ridden Michigan program. His replacement in SLC was longtime defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley.

And of course there’s no lack of hot seats headed into 2026; including the likes of Mike Norvell at Florida State, Lincoln Riley at USC, and The Hoodie himself at UNC, though Belichick may have temporarily silenced some critics Saturday with a surprising win over TCU in Dublin.

Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Wel-come Baaaaack

No idea if any of you are old enough to get that reference (ask John Travolta if not).

Anyway, the Pac-12 has emerged from its two-year stasis and is back in business, albeit with a much different, slimmed-down look. They are now firmly among the “Group of” conferences, but considering how things looked after ten of its former members announced they were leaving town, it’s still a remarkable comeback story. Holdovers Oregon State and Washington State brought on the biggest names in the Mountain West (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State), tacked on Texas State from the Sun Belt and….well, maybe call it the Pac-12 State conference.

The Playoff, Explained (Again)

The College Football Playoff stays at 12 teams for a third straight year after the Big Ten and SEC couldn’t agree on expanding it — the Big Ten wants 24 teams, the SEC wants 16, and neither side is budging yet. There is one meaningful tweak, though: the conference champions from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC are now guaranteed spots no matter how they’re ranked, and Notre Dame gets an automatic bid if it finishes in the top 12. The top three seeds will also get to pick which New Year’s Six bowl hosts their quarterfinal game, rather than following the old conference tie-ins. Small print, but it could tilt the scale in a close matchup come December.

My Preseason Top 10

1. Ohio State — The Buckeyes are the overwhelming preseason No. 1, and after coming up short in the semifinal last year, the pieces are in place to close the deal for the second time in three years.

2. Georgia — Kirby Smart’s program is a fixture at the top, and once again the Bulldogs look built to make a deep run. 

3. Oregon — Quarterback Dante Moore returns with plenty of weapons and arguably the best defensive line in the country. The OL is a bit of a question, but the bigger one is if they’ll finally get over the playoff hump.

4. Notre Dame — CJ Carr is back at quarterback, the defense is stacked at linebacker and in the secondary, and the schedule sets up kindly, with only two preseason-ranked opponents all year.

5. Indiana —  Curt Cignetti’s group went a stunning 16-0 last season, but they begin the defense of their title without a lot of players from last year — including star quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who has moved on to the NFL, leaving TCU transfer Josh Hoover under center. 

6. Texas — The Longhorns remain in the championship conversation as one of the SEC’s flagship programs. Arch Manning is back and ready to prove he is among the elite QBs in the sport.

7. Miami — Mario Cristobal keeps reloading at quarterback, this time with Duke transfer Darian Mensah, who set single-season passing records before a legal tug-of-war over his commitment finally landed him in Coral Gables.

8. Texas A&M — With a roster built around last year’s playoff run, Texas A&M should be squarely in the SEC and CFP conversation — but with the conference as loaded as ever, they’ll need to prove that breakthrough was real progress and not a one-year peak.

9.  Ole Miss — After taking over the program for their CFP run to the semifinal, now Pete Golding must show he truly belongs. Having QB Trinidad Chambliss back certainly helps.

10. Oklahoma — The Sooners come off a CFP appearance a year ago, and look like a legitimate playoff contender again — though as always in the Brent Venables era, the real question is whether the offense can find enough juice to match a great defense.

Boise State at No. 2 Oregon — 3:30pm ET, CBS

Line: Oregon -24.5, O/U 51.5

Two years ago these teams met in Eugene and the Ducks needed a last-second field goal to pull out a win. Oregon would go on to an undefeated regular season and Big Ten championship, while the Broncos made the playoff as the #3 seed.

It’s evident the pundits and Vegas don’t think quite as highly of Boise State this time. That narrow loss in ’24 was a big reason they made the playoff and notched the higher seed. A competitive showing this time around will help them get back. With QB Maddux Madsen back they should be better than last year’s 9-5 team, but their offensive line has a very tough task ahead of them against an elite Ducks defensive front. And while the Broncos have a pretty good D-line themselves, I’m not sure they can hold up for four quarters against Oregon’s offense. The Ducks should win more comfortably this time, but I think the spread is too large.

Oregon win/Boise State cover

Clemson at No. 11 LSU — 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: LSU -10, O/U 50.5

It’s Lane Kiffin’s LSU debut, and he’s doing it against the guy who’s the closest thing college football has to an opposing ideology — Dabo Swinney. Kiffin built his reputation on aggressive, high-tempo offense and aggressive roster construction through the portal, including new starting QB Sam Leavitt (Arizona State). Swinney has ignored the massive changes the sport has seen and still does things his way — developmental recruiting, program continuity, and most notably eschewing the transfer portal.

For the first time since 2023, the Tigers have a new man under center, Christopher Vizzina, who has one career start and 64 pass attempts in four years at Clemson — and once again Swinney went internal rather than dip into the portal for more experience. Vizzina will be walking into one of the loudest true road environments in the country for his first season-opening start. That’s a tough ask even for an experienced QB. 

LSU win/cover

No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss — (Sunday @ Nashville, TN) 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Ole Miss -6.5, O/U 55.5

This is year one of the full Pete Golding era after he took over after the regular season and promptly led the Rebels to the playoff semifinal. Golding inherits a loaded, veteran roster — quarterback Trinidad Chambliss returns after that CFP run, and running back Kewan Lacy and linebacker Suntarine Perkins headline a staff stacked with Mississippi natives and former Rebels. The pressure here isn’t about talent; it’s about whether Golding can be his own man after inheriting Lane Kiffin’s machine

Jeff Brohm is in year four, has never won fewer than nine games at Louisville, and has quietly built one of the best programs in the ACC. The running game should again be one of the best in the country: Isaac Brown averaged an absurd 8.8 yards per carry a year ago, and paired with power back Keyjuan Brown, this backfield could approach 2,000 combined rushing yards. The question mark is quarterback, where Brohm is breaking his own pattern. His last three transfer starters (Jack Plummer, Tyler Shough, Miller Moss) all arrived with significant starting experience. The guy this year, Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz, has thrown only 36 college passes. He brings more athleticism and dual-threat ability than any Brohm quarterback yet, but he’s stepping into his first career start in prime time against a CFP-tested SEC defense.

Ole Miss win/cover

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No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami — Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31) 7:30pm ET, ESPN

Line: Ohio State -9.5, O/U 40.5

These two historic programs don’t meet very often — this will be just the 6th time ever — but one of those was a game for the ages that ended with maybe the most controversial official’s call ever. The stakes are nearly as high for this one, and as the over-under suggests, it will likely be decided by the defenses.

The Buckeyes come in as the defending champs, experience that could come in handy. Their defense is ridiculously good, leading the nation in both points and yards surrendered per game. Even in their only loss in the Big Ten Championship Game they held the Indiana Hoosiers to just 13 points. There really aren’t many more superlatives you can add to that, and the Hurricanes will have their work cut out for them. Offensively they once again have the best receiving weapons in the country, Jeremiah Smith and the underrated Carnell Tate, and a solid dual-threat QB in Julian Sayin. Their running game isn’t special, but good enough to add balance. Their offensive line has been prone to inconsistency, and that could be a problem against a defensive front like Miami.

The Hurricanes’ formula is likely to be pretty pugilistic — play in a phone booth and shorten the game to limit the Buckeyes’ possessions. This worked in a 10-3 victory at Texas A&M a couple weeks ago, though the Aggies aren’t quite at OSU’s level. Miami will need Carson Beck to manage the game efficiently and avoid all costly mistakes, something he hasn’t done with great consistency. Getting the ball in the hands of electric true freshman Malachi Toney where he can create big plays is a must. RB Mark Fletcher will need to pound out yards the way he did on Miami’s decisive scoring drive against A&M to keep the Canes out of third-and-long situations. Defensively the plan is simple — exploit what’s been an occasionally suspect offensive line and get after the quarterback with one of the elite defensive fronts in the game, led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. If Sayin is uncomfortable all night, the Canes have a shot.

My Pick: I think Miami can keep this close early and maybe even jump out to a lead. Remember, last season the teams with the first round byes all came out flat and lost their games, so Ohio State will have to battle the effects of a long layoff. But I think by the second half the Buckeyes’ talent will take over. 

Ohio State win/cover

No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon — Orange Bowl (Jan. 1) Noon ET, ESPN

Line: Oregon -2.5, O/U 51.5

As the rankings and point spread suggest, this looks like the most evenly-matched game of the playoff so far.

The Red Raiders are led by their defense that ranked third in the nation in both major statistical categories — points and yards allowed per game. Importantly, at least for this matchup, they were the best in the country in rushing yards allowed — just 68.5 per game. They aren’t just good on that side of the ball, they’re plucky too — their 23 fumbles-forced also led the country. All-in-all, this is a fierce defense playing in a conference known for offense. Offensively Tech has a balanced attack and can move the ball well – their 480 yards of offense per game was fifth in the nation. They also get out to big leads, outscoring their opponents by 262 points in the first two quarters this season, which leads the country. They did struggle in their loss at Arizona State, but QB Behren Morton was out with an injury. Still, I imagine the Ducks will watch that film and maybe even call up their old OC Kenny Dillingham for tips.

Oregon has an explosive offense, led by the 13th best rushing offense in the country. They’ve got to find a way to get yards against Tech’s elite run defense. More importantly, QB Dante Moore needs to be able to keep the ball moving in the passing game — if there is a soft spot in the Tech defense, that is it. Stretching the field could open up things for the Ducks’ running attack. Defensively Oregon really let up in the second half of their first round game against James Madison. That’s not terribly concerning, as it happens sometimes when you have a 34-6 halftime lead against a lesser opponent. But there have been other times this season where they’ve had lapses in closer games (4th quarter at Penn State, most notably). They can’t afford to let their guard dow against the Red Raiders.

My Pick: I think Oregon is the more talented team on paper. Texas Tech feels like the more complete team to me. This is another game where I wonder if the team with the longer layoff, Texas Tech, struggles to get going after not playing since December 6. Watch out for special teams in this one too, where I give Texas Tech the edge.

Texas Tech win/cover

No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama — Rose Bowl (Jan. 1) 4pm ET, ESPN

Line: Indiana -7, O/U 47.5

These teams have never played before. Indiana is playing in the Rose Bowl game for the first time since 1968. There’s going to be a lot of talk about nostalgia and history, but this comes down to one thing — whether can Alabama score against Indiana’s elite defense.

The Tide offense has been very pass-heavy this season. Ty Simpson threw for 3,500 yards and 28 Tis the season, and WRs Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams are the best pair this side of Columbus, OH. But their running game offers little balance and their offensive line has ben leaky at times. Defensively the Tide have been very good, particularly up front, while the secondary has been prone to the occasional breakdown.

Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza leads a balanced Hoosier offense. moving the ball through the air will be necessary, so the O-line will need to give him time. Defensively the Hoosiers are outstanding, right behind Ohio State in the major categories. With Alabama not being a serious threat to run the ball, their focus will be on rushing the passer and defending against the big plays in the passing game. An underrated part of Simpson’s game is both his ability to extend plays and take off for sizable runs, so that’s something Indiana must guard against.

My Pick: Last season when Indiana made the playoff as an 11-1 at large team, it felt like they should have just been happy to be there. That’s no longer the case — Indiana is legit. Alabama reached its ceiling with their thrilling come-from-behind victory over Oklahoma. The road ends here, against an Indiana defense that will give the Crimson Tide all kinds of problems.

Indiana win/cover

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss — Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1) 8pm ET, ESPN

Line: Georgia -6.5, O/U 55.5

This is a rematch of what was a great back-and-forth game in October that Ole Miss led in the 4th Quarter before Georgia rattled off 17 unanswered points to get a 43-35 win in Athens. There will probably be a lot of talk about a guy who won’t even be in the stadium — former Rebels, and current LSU head coach Lane Kiffin. Don’t waste oxygen on him. Win or lose, the Rebels will be well-prepared for this rematch and his absence will have no bearing on the outcome.

Georgia’s offense is well-balanced and efficient. They’re good at sustaining long drives. In QB Gunner Stockton they have what feels like the second-coming of Stetson Bennett — unheralded recruit, bided his time as a backup, then took over when the bigger-name guy got injured and never looked back. Georgia’s defense has been prone to slow starts and strong finishes in some games this season. They came back to win at Tennessee and at home against Ole Miss, but fell at home against Alabama — all after giving up sizable early leads. While they locked down the opponent in the 4th Quarter in all three of those games, they really shouldn’t keep tempting fate like that.

The Rebels have been a great story this season, coaching drama notwithstanding. They are led by the dynamic Division II transfer QB Trinidad Chambliss. Leading rusher Kewan Lacy had to leave the first round game against Tulane with a shoulder injury. He is expected to play, but that will definitely be something to watch. The Rebels defense has been….well, serviceable enough to post 12 wins. They can, and have, been run on to a good extent (148 ypg). They are going to have to do better in that regard and force Georgia into 3rd-and-long, where their much more effective pass defense can get them off the field.

My Pick: This should be a great game. Like last time, expect Ole Miss to start fast. Georgia has not played since the SEC championship game (Dec. 6). Again, a question of rust and layoff. I expect a closer game than their first meeting.

Georgia win/Ole Miss cover

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Who’s In?

Ohio State and Indiana finished ranked 1 and 2, respectively. When they meet in the Big Ten Championship Game it will strictly be for a conference banner and the #1 overall seed. The loser is very unlikely to drop out of the Top 4, so there really isn’t a great deal hinging on the outcome of this one. If you were to ask both teams what they really want most out of the game, it would almost certainly be no serious injuries.

Georgia is in a similar spot sitting at #3. They will play Alabama for the SEC Championship (again), but probably remain in the Top 4 even if they lose. The Tide have definitely had their number over the years, even without Nick Saban stalking the sideline, so winning this one would feel nice for the Bulldogs. But if you were to force them to choose between winning or emerging from the game healthy, I think they’d choose the latter.

#4 Texas Tech was the main beneficiary of Texas A&M’s loss. They now hold a spot for a first round bye and should keep it if they defeat BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game. Lose and they probably drop, but not all the way out of the playoff bracket. The Red Raiders defeated the Cougars 29-7 in Lubbock in November.

Oregon and Ole Miss also moved up after the Texas A&M loss to #5 and #6, respectively. At that spot the Ducks will be hosting one of Tulane/North Texas/James Madison on Dec 19th or 20th. The Rebels, who rightfully were not dropped after Lane Kiffin’s departure, will host one of Virginia/Tulane/North Texas on the 19th or 20th. More on how that might shake out later.

I need to give Texas A&M their own little section here. They dropped from #3 to #7 after their 27-17 loss to Texas, which also eliminated their chances to play for the SEC title. I’ve long assumed the Aggies deserved their high ranking after beating Notre Dame in South Bend in Week 3. Now I’m wondering if they are a low-key fraud. What else is on their resume besides that? Of the SEC teams they played, only one had a winning record in conference….Texas, a loss. Their best SEC win came against Missouri, a team that had exactly zero wins against opponents that finished with a winning record. Of the bottom five teams in the SEC standings, the Aggies played them all. Half of the SEC teams they played fired their coach. I think you get my point. Nonetheless, they should still end up hosting a game at home in the first round, even if they drop a spot. (see: Alabama)

Oklahoma held on to their #8 spot from last week. Right now they would host the #9 team at home. But that could change. While they are unlikely to move up, they could get bumped down and have to hit the road in the first round.

Alabama jumped Notre Dame from #10 to #9 after beating 5-win Auburn. Why? Apparently the committee was impressed that they went on the road and won a rivalry game where they were impressive in the 1st Half (much less so in the 2nd Half) and specifically praised the coaching staff for going for it on a 4th-and-goal in the 4th Qtr, with the game tied, instead of taking the field goal for a 3 point lead. Whatever. The Irish won convincingly at Stanford, but I guess it wasn’t enough, and if things break wrong for them Saturday they could get left out (again, more on that in a bit). As for Alabama, I have to believe if they lose to Georgia they won’t drop out of the playoff bracket. The big question is what happens if they win? How far should they move up? Ahead of Oklahoma, who defeated them couple weeks ago? Should they ascend all the way to the Top 4? They would have some great wins (Georgia twice, Vanderbilt and Tennessee). But the stench of that opening loss at Florida State….how much does that hurt?

Who Has Work To Do, Or Needs Help?

So #10 Notre Dame is now surprisingly in a precarious spot, and they need to root for the chalk to hold Saturday, especially in the Big 12. Obviously they can only get in as an at-large, and with two teams ranked well below them certain to get in as conference champions, they cannot fall below #10. But the bigger risk is if #11 BYU upsets Texas Tech. The Cougars automatically be  in the playoff as a conference champion, whether they jump Notre Dame in the final rankings or not. That’s why getting leap-frogged by Alabama was such a big deal. Now it’s possible that if Alabama loses to Georgia they would drop back down to the 10 spot, making the Tide a potential victim if BYU pulls the upset. But that would seem an odd move by the committee. The more I see how this whole rankings thing works, the more confused I get.

Since we touched on BYU already (they must win, or they have no chance) that leaves #12 Miami and #13 Texas as teams who will probably generate a lot of discussion, but have no realistic chance of moving into the field. The Hurricanes are simply the victim of an ACC tie-breaker process that left them out of the conference title game in favor of 7-5 Duke. So if Miami wants to do some lobbying, do it at the next conference meeting. Still, it’s pretty dumb that the best team by far in the conference can’t even play for the title. As for Texas….yeah, you have some great wins on your resume (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M). And no shame at all in that 7-point loss at Ohio State. The 25-point loss at Georgia is a bit unsightly, but it was losing to 4-win Florida is what truly sank your chances. Sorry, but you gotta take care of business against teams like that.

The ACC-mageddon scenario I’ve alluded to in the past has almost come to fruition. #17 Virginia will play Duke (again, 7-5) for the conference title. If the Cavs win, they are in. We have no idea where the committee would put Duke if they actually ranked every team in FBS, but safe to say it would not be ahead of the AAC champion, or #25 James Madison if they win the Sun Belt, and maybe not even ahead of UNLV if they win the Mountain West. So yeah, the ACC will most likely be left out if Virginia loses. Bad look.

The AAC Championship is a play-in game between #20 Tulane and #24 North Texas, with the winner getting the #12 seed if Virginia wins, or the #11 seed if Duke wins. #25 James Madison must defeat Troy, then hope for chaos in the ACC.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

Coaching Carousel

Too much activity to list it all here, but I have random thoughts on a couple things.

I’m not sure how much more there is to say about the Lane Kiffin situation that hasn’t already been said. I’ll just add my 2-cents:

• I understand why he thought LSU was a better job than Ole Miss, and respect his right to make that choice
• The timing stunk, and that’s not all his fault, but that he did leave Ole Miss just as they were officially set to be in the CFP will never stop being a bad look for him
• The belief that he should have been allowed to stay at Ole Miss to coach them in the CFP while also working for LSU is absurd, and Ole Miss made the right decision in telling him to pound sand when he tried to leverage them into letting him do it
• Yes, I know the coaches at Tulane (Jon Sumrall to Florida), North Texas (Eric Morris to Oklahoma State) and James Madison (Bob Chesney to UCLA) will be doing exactly that if their teams make it to the playoff. But I don’t believe that’s an apples to apples comparison. Their current teams do not compete against or recruit in the same waters as the teams those coaches will take over.
• People talk about feeling sorry for the Ole Miss players. Yeah, I’m sure this was a distraction and change they did not want. But I don’t think we need to take pity on them. Those players will rally around each other and maybe even have a chip on their shoulder to prove to everyone that they, and not Lane Kiffin, are the reason Ole Miss is in the playoff for the first time. The Rebels aren’t one of the favorites to win it all, with or without Kiffin, but they’ll be fine.
• Ok, that was more like 5-cents. Sue me.

No idea what is going on at Penn State. They fired James Franklin in October, presumably to get a jump on finding his replacement, and here we are in December and all we know for sure is BYU’s Kalani Sitake turned them down a couple days ago. Um….what have you been doing the past month-and-a-half??? James Franklin found himself another job weeks before you’ll get around to hiring his replacement, for crying out loud. The early signing period for high school players came and went, and only two players signed up for a team with no permanent head coach. Many who were committed have gone elsewhere, including several with Franklin at Virginia Tech. Latest word is they are interested in Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. I think that’d be an excellent choice. Why weren’t you on him weeks ago???

Games of the Week (With the Most CFP Impact)

#24 North Texas at #20 Tulane – 8pm ET (Friday), ABC, Line: North Texas -2.5, O/U 66.5

It’s green on green violence as the Mean Green take on the Green Wave. Both teams will part ways with their head coach after their seasons end. As the over/under indicates, this could be a high-scoring affair in a CFP play-in game. However, the weather in New Orleans currently calls for steady rain, which could be a factor in slowing down the more offense-reliant North Texas. That plus home field makes me lean underdog.

Pick: Tulane win/cover

#11 BYU vs #4 Texas Tech (Arlington, TX) – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Texas Tech -12.5, O/U 49.5

This is a rematch, first won by Texas Tech 29-7, and the game was even more lopsided than the score indicates. In the Cougars defense, leading rusher LJ Martin was hampered by a shoulder injury that day, and they uncharacteristically turned the ball over three times. So I expect a closer game, and unlike the Red Raiders this is do-or-die for BYU. Still, I don’t think it will be enough….Tech is simply the better team.

Pick: Texas Tech win/BYU cover

#9 Alabama vs #3 Georgia – 4:00pm ET, ABC, Line: Georgia -2.5, O/U 48.5

Georgia is just 1-7 against Alabama under Kirby Smart. You know the Bulldogs would love to start evening the ledger. But with no real CFP implications on the line for them I wonder just how focused and committed they’ll be. Alabama should know the result of the Big 12 game by kickoff, and if Texas Tech wins they can probably feel secure in knowing they’re still in if they lose this one. But I have a hunch they’d love to insert a bit of chaos into the rankings and force the committee to move them higher, to at least hosting a first round game in Tuscaloosa. And if BYU wins, they’re likely playing for their playoff lives.

Pick: Alabama win/cover

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The Rankings

Ohio State and Indiana appear to be on a collision course to meet in the Big Ten Championship Game. If the chalk holds over the final two games, and given OSU’s recent history against Michigan that’s no sure thing, both teams should end up with a Top 4 seed no matter who wins the title game. If Michigan does win its 5th straight in the series, then it might be time to get out the tie-breaker list, as the Wolverines, Oregon and USC could still have a shot of playing for the Big Ten Championship.

Speaking of Oregon and USC, Saturday’s game at Eugene may essentially be a play-in game for the CFP. The winner will be well-positioned to at least garner an at-large bid. USC would most definitely be out if they pick up their third loss, and Oregon may also be cooked at just two losses but no wins over currently ranked teams to hang their hat on.

Texas A&M is in the driver’s seat in the SEC. They have a tune-up game this week against Samford before playing their first game in Austin in over a decade. As in the case of Michigan-Ohio State, upsets in these rivalry games are always on the table.

While Georgia holds the higher ranking, Alabama still has an edge over them in the SEC standings via the Tide’s head-to-head win. Georgia has the edge over Ole Miss for the same reason. Alabama and Ole Miss do not play this season. So it looks like it will be 4 teams in the mix for the two SEC Championship Game spots. One thing that appears certain is that preseason #1 Texas is toast (if they get in as a 3-loss team, let the ESPN/SEC playoff-rigging theories fly).

Texas Tech and BYU are currently on track to play for the Big 12 title, but a couple upsets could throw things into chaos. Utah, Houston, Cincinnati, and even banged-up defending champ Arizona State remain in the mix. If Cincinnati knocks off BYU Saturday night at home, get ready for a wild finish.

The ACC is a mess, and I’ll mostly leave it at that. Miami is still the highest-ranked and probably best team in the conference, but they are a long shot to get to the conference title game. The ACC-magedon narrative, in which the conference might get completely left out of the CFP because their champion would be ranked below two of the G5 conference champs, looks increasingly less-likely, but still isn’t completely out of the question.

As for the G5, the American race probably settles it all, but the teams at the top are beating each other up, so that doesn’t help in the CFP rankings and leaves an opening for another conference champion. This week it’s Tulane’s turn to be in the Top 25. James Madison from the Sun Belt remains in the mix, with San Diego State out of the Mountain West being a very long shot.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

1st Rd – Played at home field of highest ranked team

• #24 Tulane at #5 Texas Tech
• #13 Miami at #6 Ole Miss
• #10 Alabama at #7 Oregon
• #9 Notre Dame at #8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinals – Played at TBD bowl site

• Oregon/Texas Tech vs #1 Ohio State
• Notre Dame/BYU vs #2 Indiana
• Virginia/Ole Miss vs #3 Texas A&M
• Tulane/Texas Tech vs #4 Georgia

Coaching Watch List

Not only were there no coaches dismissed since our last writing, but one recently-fired coach already found new employment (James Franklin – Virginia Tech) and the top two on the previous list (Luke Fickell – Wisconsin and Mike Locksley – Maryland) were informed they will return in 2026.

1. Mike Norvell, Florida State – The 5-5 Seminoles have two winnable road games left, at NC State and Florida. Maybe a strong finish where they end up 8-5 saves Norvell’s job. Anything less and I suspect this will be another high-profile opening.
2. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State – The idea of moving on from a coach after just two seasons seems rough, but the Spartans have regressed after going 5-7 last year, and only a season-ending home date with lowly Maryland may save them from going 0-9 in conference. Since MSU isn’t paying former coach Mel Tucker, who was fired for cause, money may not be as big a factor here.
3. Shane Beamer, South Carolina – It’s not getting any better in Columbia after the Gamecocks completely collapsed last Saturday, blowing a 30-3 halftime lead at Texas A&M. Pulling off an upset of that magnitude could have ended any hot seat discussion for Beamer. Oh well. And with the Franklin hiring he’s no longer the sentimental choice to go back to his Virginia Tech roots.
4. Bill Belichick, North Carolina – Do the Giants turn to their past and bring Belichick back to the NFL? Does it matter? The college experiment has clearly failed and a mutual parting of the ways between BB and UNC feels inevitable.

Honorable Mention. Dave Aranda, Baylor – Since going 12-2 and winning the Big 12 title in 2021, the Bears are 22-26 under Aranda. If he’s let go, the SoCal native might be a candidate for the UCLA job.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Texas A&M
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Oklahoma
8. Oregon
9. Alabama
10. Notre Dame
11. Utah
12. Georgia Tech

Games of the Week

#22 Missouri at #8 Oklahoma – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Oklahoma -7.5, O/U 42.5

I’ll say it again….can someone look at Missouri’s schedule and tell me what they’ve done that is so special as to have them in the rankings? Is simply existing in the SEC worth that much? Now the Sooners best not look past this game or suffer a hangover from last week’s huge win at Alabama, but I don’t think they will.

Pick: Oklahoma win/cover

#15 USC at #7 Oregon – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -10.5, O/U 59.5

Believe it or not USC is actually well-positioned to claim an at-large playoff bid. A road win against the Ducks and a victory over cross-town rival UCLA the following week would give them a 10-2 record with wins against two currently-ranked teams (#18 Michigan being the other). Meanwhile their only two losses were both on the road, against #9 Notre Dame and #21 Illinois, by a combined total of 12 points. So yeah, that’s probably CFP-worthy. But when was the last time USC went on the road and won a season-defining game like this one? Yeah, I don’t think so either. I actually think the Ducks win this one by exactly 10, so the Trojans would at least cover.

Pick: Oregon win/USC cover

#11 BYU at Cincinnati – 8:00pm ET, FOX, Line: BYU -2.5, O/U 54.5

This was the biggest game I could find that did not include two ranked teams. This won’t be easy for BYU, and a loss likely throws the Big 12 standings deep into the tie-breaker weeds. But I think the Cougars will prevail.

Pick: BYU win/cover

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The CFP Rankings

Here are my random thoughts about the first rankings.

This is more predictive than resume-based, but I still like Texas A&M a little better than Indiana. But I get putting the Hoosiers ahead based on wins at Oregon and Iowa, versus the Aggies win at Notre Dame and an SEC schedule that so far is mostly lower tier teams.

While I won’t quibble too much over one spot, I like Texas Tech just a bit over BYU based on their record against one common opponent: Utah. The Red Raiders beat the Utes 34-10 in Salt Lake City, while the Cougars won 24-21 in Provo. Of course that score will ultimately be settled Saturday.

All in all, the Big 12 sure feels a lot stronger at the top this season than last year, with two teams in the Top 10 and three in the Top 13. Remember last year the eventual champion, Arizona State, didn’t even crack the Top 25 until the third set of rankings were released.

I agree with Oregon at #9 based on a relatively weak slate of wins, but I don’t think they should be punished too harshly based on what has happened to Penn State. The Lions team that took the field that night in Happy Valley is much different than what we’ve seen since then. I really do think the Ducks broke them.

Do we really believe Notre Dame deserves to be ranked as far ahead of Virginia and Louisville as they are? Or even ranked ahead of them at all? Louisville, who have 1-loss vs Notre Dame’s 2, did what the Irish couldn’t – defeat Miami in Miami. And of course the one team that has beaten the Cardinals is the Cavaliers. Are we really giving that much credit to Notre Dame over a 10-point win against USC? Please. At the very least, put the Cavs and Cards ahead of Texas and Oklahoma, a couple of mid SEC squads.

Interesting to see Iowa get some love while the AP poll has shunned them. They don’t have any good wins to hang their hat on, but narrow losses at Iowa State and to Indiana aren’t nothing.

While no Group of Five team cracked the initial rankings, I doubt that will be the case when the final rankings are released. At this point, it’s hard to see anyone other than the American champion getting the CFP bid. Maybe San Diego State has a long shot, but the Mountain West does not have any good wins out of conference this season and the Aztecs’ lone loss so far, to Washington State, is aging very poorly.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

1st Rd – Played at home field of highest ranked team

• G5 at #5 Georgia
• #14 Virginia at #6 Ole Miss
• #10 Notre Dame at #7 BYU
• #9 Oregon at #8 Texas Tech

Quarterfinals – Played at TBD bowl site

• Oregon/Texas Tech vs #1 Ohio State
• Notre Dame/BYU vs #2 Indiana
• Virginia/Ole Miss vs #3 Texas A&M
• G5/Georgia vs #4 Alabama

Coaching Watch List

Two more SEC schools will be searching for new coaches this cycle, as LSU and Auburn parted ways with Brian Kelly and Hugh Freeze, respectively. In LSU’s case, they also parted with AD Scott Woodward whose track record of coaching hires is….not great (he also gave Jimbo Fisher the deal that led to Texas A&M paying what is still the largest buyout in history). Woodward inspired so little confidence that the governor of Louisiana went on The Pat McAfee Show to state that he would have no role in hiring the next head coach, essentially firing the guy live on the air. Having the governor directly intervening into athletic affairs sure makes the vacant AD and head coaching positions at LSU look more appealing, doesn’t it?

1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – After being shut out for 11 consecutive quarters the Badgers put a touchdown on the board during garbage time in a loss at Oregon. That’s the good news. Seriously.

2. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – Can Maryland come up with the money to buy out Locksley’s remaining contract? Of equal concern is whether they can afford not to.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State – Norvell spared his job for at least another week with a blowout victory against Wake Forest that ended a 4-game losing streak and gave the Seminoles their first conference win of the season. Not exactly a reason to breath easy.

4. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State – The good news for the Spartans, winless in the Big Ten, is two of their final three games are against also-winless Penn State and quit-after-September Maryland. But is that really good enough?

Honorable Mention. Shane Beamer, South Carolina – The Gamecocks entered the season with high hopes, a #13 preseason ranking, and a Heisman hopeful in QB LaNorris Sellers. Now, barring a stunning upset at #3 Texas A&M in their next game, they won’t even be bowling.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Texas A&M
3. Indiana
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas Tech
8. BYU
9. Oregon
10. Utah
11. Virginia
12. Louisville

Games of the Week

#7 BYU at #8 Texas Tech – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Texas Tech -10.5, O/U 52.5

Here is your most likely preview of the Big 12 Championship Game – though Cincinnati might still have something to say about that. Having already been dealt a conference loss, this is a much more important game for Texas Tech than BYU, and it’s in Lubbock, so I like the Red Raiders….though laying 10.5 feels too generous.

Pick: Texas Tech win/BYU cover

#3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri – 3:30pm ET, ESPN, Line: Texas A&M -6.5, O/U 47.5

In my last article I didn’t think Missouri was the 15th best team in the country, and two weeks later I’m not sure they are deserving of 22nd either. But you know what? This feels like a trap game for A&M, coming off a huge blowout win at LSU and the hype of the #3 CFP ranking. Better watch out, Aggies, this game has the makings of a rock fight.

Pick: Texas A&M win/Missouri cover

#9 Oregon at #20 Iowa – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -6.5, O/U 40.5

Kinnick Stadium has long been a house of horrors for visiting Top 10 teams, and I’m not getting great vibes from Oregon after that Indiana loss. Yeah, they crossed the country and boat-raced Rutgers immediately after that, but then struggled against a game, but offensively anemic Wisconsin team the following week. Iowa remains who they have always been – a team that can really fluster opposing offenses with good defense, ball control, and field position. The Ducks persevered and eventually prevailed in that style of game at Penn State, but Iowa is a better team. I smell upset.

Pick: Iowa win/cover

The post College Football 2025 – Where We Stand Headed Into Week 11 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Let’s Catch Up

Week 8 saw four teams among the AP Top 10 fall.

Beginning with last Friday, then #2 Miami lost its first game of the season, 24-21 to a Louisville team that came into South Florida unranked. It was a mostly sloppy showing for the ‘Canes, low-lighted by four Carson Beck interceptions thrown and an anemic 2.6 yards per carry by a typically potent Miami running game. While the Cardinals are a good team and there is no shame in losing to them, it was a result that has often typified Mario Cristobal teams, where the execution doesn’t consistently match the talent. Fortunately for Miami, the 12-team playoff is a much more forgiving format for hiccups like this, but it does nothing to dispel the narrative that Cristobal’s teams fizzle as the season wears on.

What world are we living in? Vanderbilt went into a game as the betting favorite over #10 LSU. Yes, you read that correctly. Not only that, but ESPN’s win predictor had them as the likely winner through all 60 minutes. Following the 31-24 victory the Commodores got a nice little bump in the AP rankings from #17 to #10.

Top 10 Vanderbilt???? I know what you’re thinking – and yes, I do have the answer. The last time the Commodores were ranked in the AP Top 10 was October 13, 1947. What else was going on that day, you ask? Well, the US engaged in an experiment to seed a hurricane with dry ice in what was dubbed Project Cirrus, and….it didn’t go well, as the storm took an unexpected change in direction and made landfall in Georgia, causing significant damage. In lighter news from that day, the first ever NHL All Star Game was played, and rock legend Sammy Hagar was born.

As for the Tigers, their playoff hopes are on life support, with back-to-bak games against #3 Texas A&M and #4 Alabama up next. Looks like another disappointing season is in the cards for Brian Kelly in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss was dealt their first loss of the season at Georgia, a game in which their offense scored five touchdowns on their first five possessions, but then went dormant for the remainder of the game. The Rebels defense, on the other hand, failed to hold the Bulldogs scoreless on a single possession until the game-ending kneel-down. Luckily for the Rebels, they don’t face any potent offenses for the remainder of the season, so they still have solid playoff hopes.

As for the Bulldogs, they are now 2-1 in games against ranked opponents, and in each case their defense started out pretty poorly as they were forced to storm back against Tennessee and Ole Miss, while coming up just short against Alabama. The playoff and SEC title are still within their grasp, but they need to get off to better starts going forward.

Finally, Arizona State kept alive their hopes of returning to the playoff with a huge win over then #7 Texas Tech, 26-22. The return of QB Sam Leavitt for the Sun Devils after sitting out a loss at Utah due to injury made the difference. ASU is a much different team with him, and they will have to hope he stays healthy to get back in the Big 12 title game.

Meanwhile the Red Raiders will have a good chance to bounce back this week against lowly Oklahoma State, who are still searching for their first win against an FBS team. And while their fans are no doubt looking ahead to a huge showdown against #11 BYU in Lubbock on November 8, the team best not overlook what could be a tricky game at Kansas State the week before that.

Coaching Watch List

If you count the (dis)Honorable Mention, three more coaches from my last list joined the count of the unemployed. But don’t feel too bad for Billy Napier or James Franklin, as they are guaranteed to collect $21M and $45M, respectively. Trent Bray will only get $3.6M from Oregon State, so he may need to tighten his belt a bit. As always though, the coaching carousel proceeds on.

1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – The Badgers have been shut out in their last two games, both at home, and now head to #6 Oregon as a 33.5 point underdog. AD Chris McIntosh gave Fickell the dreaded vote of confidence, but when you look at the brutal schedule the Badgers still have ahead it’s really hard to envision this going on much longer.

2. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – That’s now three straight, and counting, blown 4th Quarter leads for the Terps following their 20-17 loss at UCLA. They also continue their trend of post-September futility. Since college football isn’t moving its season calendar to July thru September anytime soon, it seems Maryland will have to be the one to make a change to improve the situation at College Park.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State – It no longer feels like we’re talking about the same season when we refer to the Seminoles’ Week 1 domination of Alabama. Both teams have been on vastly different trajectories since then, but this is about FSU. I’m sure it’s never easy for an Eastern time zone team to travel to the West Coast and play a game that kicks off at 10:30pm ET, but the ‘Noles ugly loss at Stanford (their fourth straight) cannot be excused. FSU says it will wait until after the season before making any decision on Norvell’s status, but with his team now completely out of the playoff picture and simply battling for bowl eligibility, it doesn’t look good.

4. Hugh Freeze, Auburn – The SEC is an unforgivable gauntlet, and the Tigers’ four straight losses have all come against ranked opponents. Nonetheless, looking at the rest of the schedule a six win season would appear to be the likely best case. Auburn is no stranger to having multiple head coaches on its payroll – as of last season they were still paying Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin along with Freeze. Some things never change.

Honorable Mention: Bill Belichick, North Carolina – This has been a predictable train wreck almost since the day he was hired. There really isn’t much more to say.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Georgia Tech
7. Oregon
8. Miami
9. Vanderbilt
10. Ole Miss
11. BYU
12. Texas Tech

Games of the Week

#8 Ole Miss at #13 Oklahoma – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Oklahoma -4.5, O/U 54.5

After suffering a surprising first defeat against Texas, Oklahoma got right with a dominating 26-7 win at South Carolina. In his second game back following hand surgery, QB John Mateer had a better, though not spectacular, day than in his first game back against the Longhorns in which he threw 3 picks. But thanks to a stifling Sooner defense, it was plenty good enough.

Of course, I already talked about the recent struggles of Ole Miss’s defense. So I guess what I’m saying is, this looks like a perfect opportunity for the Sooner offense to really get on track.

Pick: Oklahoma win/cover

#15 Missouri at #10 Vanderbilt – 3:30pm ET, ESPN, Line: Vanderbilt -2.5, O/U 52.5

Based on their schedule, in which their most impressive result might be a 3-point loss at home to Alabama, I’m really not getting Top 15 vibes from Mizzou. With ESPN College Gameday in Nashville for this one, I like the home team.

Pick: Vanderbilt win/cover

#3 Texas A&M at #20 LSU – 7:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Texas A&M -2.5, O/U 48.5

The Aggies had to fend off a feisty Arkansas team in Fayetteville last week, pulling out a 45-42 win. The result doesn’t necessarily instill confidence in their chances going to Death Valley. Points will likely be hard to come by for A&M, and despite an anemic LSU offense it feels like this could be a very tight affair against a team fighting for their season and maybe their coach’s job.

Pick: LSU win/cover

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Let’s Catch Up

Week 6 was lighter on marquee matchups, but not on consequential results.

We’ll start with the lede, that being the teams with championship hopes entering the season that have crashed and burned. Clemson faded out of the picture from the get-go, so no need to go too deep into them other than mention that last week they further exposed what a farce the Bill Belichick Experiment at UNC has been so far. So the Tigers have that going for them at least.

Texas went to Gainesville to take on a reeling Florida team that is likely in a fight just to be bowl eligible, and took a 29-21 loss. Arch Manning had another mediocre showing, though he got no help from his line in the from of protection or a running game. The Gators were coming off three straight losses in which their defense played well enough to win, but couldn’t get enough out of QB DJ Lagway. But with their backs against the wall the sophomore turned in a solid performance. They’ll need it again this week, and in a much more hostile environment, as Florida heads to College Station to face #5 Texas A&M. As for the Longhorns, it feels like every game from here on is a must-win if they are to make the playoff, and that journey starts Saturday at Dallas against #6 Oklahoma. Arch Manning and a struggling OL against one of the top defenses in the country? We saw that in Week 1, and it didn’t end well for the ‘Horns.

Following a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to Oregon in their annual White Out game in Week 5, Penn State failed to respond in an embarrassing 42-37 loss to previously winless UCLA. The Lions fell behind 27-7 at halftime, and just couldn’t claw back before time expired. They still had a margin of error after the Oregon loss to get into the playoff, but that may have gone up in smoke. The Lions still have games at home against Indiana and at Ohio State remaining on the schedule. If they lose just one of those it becomes hard to imagine a 3-loss team, with one of those coming against the likes of UCLA, getting in.

Finally, in the biggest game of Week 6 Miami held on to defeat their rival, Florida State, 28-22. This game was another case study in why some, myself included, still have trouble declaring the Hurricanes a true title favorite despite clearly possessing the talent. For three quarters they looked unbeatable, holding a commanding 28-3 lead in a hostile environment. But then, as so often has been the case for Mario Cristobal-coached teams, they lost their edge and the Seminoles reeled off 19 4th Qtr points. How great was the threat of FSU actually pulling off an improbable comeback? Maybe not as much as the score might indicate, but if the Seminoles had simply got a lucky bounce on one of their three onside kick attempts, we could very easily be having a different conversation. Cristobal is who he is at this point, but it’s still a shock to see him continue to take his foot off the gas too soon, and apparently he has not learned how hard it is to regain momentum in those situations.

Coaching Watch List

Maybe it’s time for me to rename this the Coaching Reverse Jinx Watch List. After making the list for two weeks in a row, Virginia’s Tony Elliott went and got consecutive overtime wins at home against then-#8 Florida State and on the road at then-unbeaten Louisville. Now the Cavaliers find themselves ranked 19th in the AP. From the hot seat to Coach of the Year candidate. As much as we talk about the coaching carousel, you gotta love redemption stories like this. Well done, Coach Elliott.

1. Trent Bray, Oregon State – Two more frustrating, heart-breaking losses for the Beavers, in what they hoped would be a nice season with at least a bowl appearance. Now they are 0-6 and staring into an abyss. Within the last week their general manager resigned and the special teams coordinator was fired, but that feels like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic at this point. A complete tear-down feels both inevitable and necessary.

2. Billy Napier, Florida – Napier once again appears to have staved off termination. But there is still a feeling that it’s only postponing the inevitable when you look at the Gators’ still-brutal remaining schedule. The SEC is an absolute bloodbath this year, so if he can somehow get the four more wins needed for bowl eligibility maybe that will, and should, be enough for one more year. But the standards and expectations at Florida are much higher than 6-6.

3. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – After the brutal loss at home to Maryland and a bye, the Badgers hit the road and played valiantly against Michigan. But the result was the same….an anemic offense gave them little chance. Unfortunately for Fickell the schedule does not get any friendlier, and a winless conference record might not be out of the question if Wisconsin can’t generate some offense.

4. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – I know the Terps are currently 4-1, and expectations at Maryland aren’t especially high, but the Terrapins now have a very well-established pattern of post-September futility. Not counting the COVID season, under Locksley they are 21-5 in Aug-Sep, and 10-29 in Oct-Dec. That didn’t change course last Saturday, as they blew a 20-point, late 3rd Qtr lead to Washington and fell 24-20. Inexplicably, it also dropped Locksley to 0-8 at Maryland following a bye. With a recently-hired AD on board, Maryland might deem it time to make a change if the team doesn’t reverse the trend.

Honorable Mention. James Franklin, Penn State – Credit Franklin for not hiding from the truth following the loss to Oregon, which dropped his record against Top 6 teams to 4-21. He acknowledged the narrative he doesn’t win big games is real and factual, and until he starts flipping that stat it won’t go away. But then came the inexcusable UCLA debacle. Penn State would owe him $50M if it fired him after the season. That’s a lot to swallow for a coach who has won over 70% of his games and got the team to the CFP semifinals last year. But it’s fair to wonder how much longer simply being on the doorstep will be enough for PSU.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Miami
3. Oregon
4. Texas A&M
5. Oklahoma
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas Tech
8. Alabama
9. Indiana
10. Georgia
11. Georgia Tech
12. LSU

Games of the Week

#1 Ohio State at #17 Illinois – Noon ET, FOX, Line: Ohio State -14.5, O/U 49.5

I’m having a hard time seeing how the Illini will score enough points on the Buckeye defense, which is #1 in FBS in points allowed (5.0 pg) and #3 in yards allowed (215.8 pg). And while 14.5 points sounds like a lot for even the top-ranked team to lay on the road against a ranked opponent, OSU won by 18 two weeks ago against a tougher opponent (Washington) in a tougher venue.

Pick: Ohio State win/cover

#8 Alabama at #14 Missouri – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Alabama -3.5, O/U 51.5

The Tide have righted the ship after that opening loss at FSU, having beaten two straight ranked SEC opponents (Georgia and Vanderbilt). I’m still concerned with their running numbers, both offensively and defensively. But they should be fine against a Missouri team that has yet to face a ranked opponent.

Pick: Alabama win/cover

Indiana at Oregon – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -7.5, O/U 55.5

This is the Hoosiers’ big chance to prove they are different than last year’s team that took advantage of a friendly schedule to make it to the playoff. They don’t necessarily have to win, but if they can go to Eugene and cover then I’ll believe they are a legitimate Top 10 team. The matchup features two potential 1st Round NFL QBs in Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore, but I’ll be watching the defenses in this one. Both are Top 10 in FBS in points and yards allowed. Very evenly matched, well-coached teams. Turnovers and Indiana’s ability to execute its offense in a very loud environment feel like the keys to this game.

Pick: Oregon win/Indiana cover

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Let’s Catch Up

We had three matchups featuring two ranked teams, and we definitely need to talk about them.

Let’s start with the Big Ten. #9 Illinois and #19 Indiana met as ranked teams for the first time since 1950, but only one of them looked the part, as the Hoosiers blasted the Illini 63-10. This game was a shocker in large part because Indiana played a marshmallow soft non-conference schedule and did not look impressive against the toughest of those foes, Old Dominion. Illinois’ schedule wasn’t much better, but they did at least log a blowout win at Duke. Still, many were right to be skeptical.

So where does this leave each team’s CFP hopes? I had this circled as a key game for Illinois to pick up a good win for their resume. They get another chance when #21 USC comes to town on Saturday. They also get #1 Ohio State in Champaign on October 11th. They have to find a way to win at least one of those. The Hoosiers have tough road games at Oregon and Penn State, but no other teams currently ranked on their schedule, so this one might have been critical. And they delivered in a big way.

Another eye-opener was in the Big 12, when #17 Texas Tech visited Salt Lake City to take on #16 Utah. This one started out as a defensive slugfest, but then the Red Raiders went to backup QB Will Hammond in the second half and he finished the game with four straight scoring drives to seal an impressive 34-10 road win. Tech notably spent a lot of money putting together this year’s roster, and it’s showing. Meanwhile the Utes will need to shake this loss off quickly. After a trip to West Virginia they have critical conference matchups against Arizona State and at BYU. (and why are we playing the Holy War in the middle of the season and not the end?)

Finally #11 Oklahoma got its second win in three games against a ranked opponent with a hard fought win against #22 Auburn. The Sooners are now 4-0 (1-0) and look like they could make some noise in the SEC. That’s the good news. Now the bad news. QB John Mateer suffered a broken bone in his hand during the game that required surgery and will keep him out for about a month. That means he’s likely to miss games against Texas, South Carolina and Ole Miss, but can hopefully return to face Tennessee on Nov 1. Still, OU’s offense has struggled greatly without him, and their defense (which looks very good once again) must pick up the slack.

Coaching Watch List

Two names from my previous list, Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, are already gone. So is UCLA’s Deshaun Foster. But there are still plenty of hot seats to go around.

1. Billy Napier, Florida – It’s not getting any better, or easier, for Napier. After losses at LSU and Miami, in which the offense looked mostly inept, the Gators now sit at 1-3. Oh, and they now get to do the Texas two-step against the #10 Longhorns and at the #9 Aggies. Is the mercy rule in effect here? At least Florida won’t lose this weekend….they have a bye.

2. Trent Bray, Oregon State – How did I manage to leave Bray off my first list after Week 1 and 2 debacles in which the Beavers couldn’t execute even the simplest of football actions, like snapping the football cleanly? Since then the Beavs have been outscored 86-21 in two games. Forgive the pun, but the dam has burst in Corvallis

3. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – I truly thought Fickell was an excellent hire for Wisconsin, but sometimes what looks like a home run ends up being just a long fly ball. After leading the Badgers to their first losing season since 2001 last year, they stand at 2-2 and were just dominated at home by Maryland.

4. Tony Elliott, Virginia – After getting a win against lowly Stanford, Elliott gets a bit of a reprieve and drops from #3 to 4 on my list. And the ACC schedule is looking a little friendlier now than it once did. Maybe even a bowl game is possible?

Honorable Mention. Dabo Swinney, Clemson – He has a huge buyout (about $60M) and I’m not sure Clemson can marshall the resources to manage that. And yeah, there’s the matter of those two titles he won the prior decade. But as we know all too well, a ‘chip only buys you so much time.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Miami
3. Penn State
4. Oregon
5. Georgia
6. LSU
7. Oklahoma
8. Texas A&M
9. Florida State
10. Texas Tech
11. Indiana
12. Ole Miss

Games of the Week

USC at Illinois – Noon ET, FOX, Line: USC -6.5, O/U 60.5

Life comes at you fast. Think back to one week ago….Illinois was ranked #9 and riding high. Could you imagine then they’d be nearly a touchdown underdog at home to a team coming in from the West Coast (that is not named Oregon) for a 9am PT kickoff? Yet here we are. I’m not sure to what degree we should write off that debacle at Indiana as a fluke, but I’m sure the Illini will be well-motivated to wash the taste of that mess out of their mouths. I’m also not sure what to make of USC at this point. They kinda pass the eye test. Their best win so far came last week at the Coliseum against Michigan State, but that was still a one-score game halfway into the 4th Qtr. I’ve seen this movie before, and I’m not buying stock in the Trojans just yet.

Pick: Illinois win/cover

LSU at Ole Miss – 3:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Ole Miss -1.5, O/U 55.5

Big early SEC tilt with likely playoff implications. It’s a classic “Something’s Gotta Give” matchup, as LSU’s anemic #112 ranked rushing offense faces the Rebels’ #122 turnstile rushing defense. To add to the Tigers’ woes, QB Garrett Nussmeier has been less than impressive so far this season, despite LSU’s usual bevy of receiving weapons. On the flip side, it will be interesting to see how Lane Kiffin’s high-octane offense attacks a very stout LSU defense. The oddsmakers pretty much have it right, as this really feels like a coin flip. I lean with the home team on this one

Pick: Ole Miss win/cover

Oregon at Penn State – 7:30pm ET, NBC, Line: Penn State -3.5, O/U 51.5

It’s the first real test for these two title hopefuls. The Lions are coming off a bye following an extremely soft non-conference schedule. QB Drew Allar has been okay so far, albeit very untested. Of course the Lions’ bread is buttered in the running game with the best tandem in the sport, Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton. Ducks QB Dante Moore has begun to live up to his 5-star billing, and true freshman WR Dakorien Moore has stepped up to fill in for the injured Evan Stewart. How Oregon’s defense plays will likely determine the outcome in this game. Despite losing, the Lions rushed for 297 yards (8.7 ypc) when the two squared off in the Big Ten championship game last year. Oregon will not be so fortunate if PSU comes anywhere near that number again.

Pick: Penn State win/cover

Alabama at Georgia – 7:30pm ET, ABC,  Line: Georgia -3.5, O/U 52-5

At long last, for the first time since 2015 Georgia gets Alabama in Athens instead of Atlanta, where the Tide have gone 4-0 against head coach Kirby Smart. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, as Georgia’s last game was a come-from-behind overtime thriller at Tennessee, while Alabama cruised at home against Wisconsin. We’ll find out now if the Tide have exorcised the demons of an ugly season-opening loss at Florida State. The good news is the Bulldogs allowed 371 passing yards in Knoxville, and Alabama’s passing game has been much more effective than its ground game so far. On the other hand, I’d be concerned about Alabama’s defense (how many times has anyone had to write that over the years?). The Tide have struggled on third downs (119th in FBS) and in the red zone (112th). The sample size is still relatively small just three games in, but does not sound promising for pulling off a road upset against a Top 5 opponent.

Pick: Georgia win/cover

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