No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami — Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31) 7:30pm ET, ESPN

Line: Ohio State -9.5, O/U 40.5

These two historic programs don’t meet very often — this will be just the 6th time ever — but one of those was a game for the ages that ended with maybe the most controversial official’s call ever. The stakes are nearly as high for this one, and as the over-under suggests, it will likely be decided by the defenses.

The Buckeyes come in as the defending champs, experience that could come in handy. Their defense is ridiculously good, leading the nation in both points and yards surrendered per game. Even in their only loss in the Big Ten Championship Game they held the Indiana Hoosiers to just 13 points. There really aren’t many more superlatives you can add to that, and the Hurricanes will have their work cut out for them. Offensively they once again have the best receiving weapons in the country, Jeremiah Smith and the underrated Carnell Tate, and a solid dual-threat QB in Julian Sayin. Their running game isn’t special, but good enough to add balance. Their offensive line has been prone to inconsistency, and that could be a problem against a defensive front like Miami.

The Hurricanes’ formula is likely to be pretty pugilistic — play in a phone booth and shorten the game to limit the Buckeyes’ possessions. This worked in a 10-3 victory at Texas A&M a couple weeks ago, though the Aggies aren’t quite at OSU’s level. Miami will need Carson Beck to manage the game efficiently and avoid all costly mistakes, something he hasn’t done with great consistency. Getting the ball in the hands of electric true freshman Malachi Toney where he can create big plays is a must. RB Mark Fletcher will need to pound out yards the way he did on Miami’s decisive scoring drive against A&M to keep the Canes out of third-and-long situations. Defensively the plan is simple — exploit what’s been an occasionally suspect offensive line and get after the quarterback with one of the elite defensive fronts in the game, led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. If Sayin is uncomfortable all night, the Canes have a shot.

My Pick: I think Miami can keep this close early and maybe even jump out to a lead. Remember, last season the teams with the first round byes all came out flat and lost their games, so Ohio State will have to battle the effects of a long layoff. But I think by the second half the Buckeyes’ talent will take over. 

Ohio State win/cover

No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon — Orange Bowl (Jan. 1) Noon ET, ESPN

Line: Oregon -2.5, O/U 51.5

As the rankings and point spread suggest, this looks like the most evenly-matched game of the playoff so far.

The Red Raiders are led by their defense that ranked third in the nation in both major statistical categories — points and yards allowed per game. Importantly, at least for this matchup, they were the best in the country in rushing yards allowed — just 68.5 per game. They aren’t just good on that side of the ball, they’re plucky too — their 23 fumbles-forced also led the country. All-in-all, this is a fierce defense playing in a conference known for offense. Offensively Tech has a balanced attack and can move the ball well – their 480 yards of offense per game was fifth in the nation. They also get out to big leads, outscoring their opponents by 262 points in the first two quarters this season, which leads the country. They did struggle in their loss at Arizona State, but QB Behren Morton was out with an injury. Still, I imagine the Ducks will watch that film and maybe even call up their old OC Kenny Dillingham for tips.

Oregon has an explosive offense, led by the 13th best rushing offense in the country. They’ve got to find a way to get yards against Tech’s elite run defense. More importantly, QB Dante Moore needs to be able to keep the ball moving in the passing game — if there is a soft spot in the Tech defense, that is it. Stretching the field could open up things for the Ducks’ running attack. Defensively Oregon really let up in the second half of their first round game against James Madison. That’s not terribly concerning, as it happens sometimes when you have a 34-6 halftime lead against a lesser opponent. But there have been other times this season where they’ve had lapses in closer games (4th quarter at Penn State, most notably). They can’t afford to let their guard dow against the Red Raiders.

My Pick: I think Oregon is the more talented team on paper. Texas Tech feels like the more complete team to me. This is another game where I wonder if the team with the longer layoff, Texas Tech, struggles to get going after not playing since December 6. Watch out for special teams in this one too, where I give Texas Tech the edge.

Texas Tech win/cover

No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama — Rose Bowl (Jan. 1) 4pm ET, ESPN

Line: Indiana -7, O/U 47.5

These teams have never played before. Indiana is playing in the Rose Bowl game for the first time since 1968. There’s going to be a lot of talk about nostalgia and history, but this comes down to one thing — whether can Alabama score against Indiana’s elite defense.

The Tide offense has been very pass-heavy this season. Ty Simpson threw for 3,500 yards and 28 Tis the season, and WRs Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams are the best pair this side of Columbus, OH. But their running game offers little balance and their offensive line has ben leaky at times. Defensively the Tide have been very good, particularly up front, while the secondary has been prone to the occasional breakdown.

Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza leads a balanced Hoosier offense. moving the ball through the air will be necessary, so the O-line will need to give him time. Defensively the Hoosiers are outstanding, right behind Ohio State in the major categories. With Alabama not being a serious threat to run the ball, their focus will be on rushing the passer and defending against the big plays in the passing game. An underrated part of Simpson’s game is both his ability to extend plays and take off for sizable runs, so that’s something Indiana must guard against.

My Pick: Last season when Indiana made the playoff as an 11-1 at large team, it felt like they should have just been happy to be there. That’s no longer the case — Indiana is legit. Alabama reached its ceiling with their thrilling come-from-behind victory over Oklahoma. The road ends here, against an Indiana defense that will give the Crimson Tide all kinds of problems.

Indiana win/cover

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss — Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1) 8pm ET, ESPN

Line: Georgia -6.5, O/U 55.5

This is a rematch of what was a great back-and-forth game in October that Ole Miss led in the 4th Quarter before Georgia rattled off 17 unanswered points to get a 43-35 win in Athens. There will probably be a lot of talk about a guy who won’t even be in the stadium — former Rebels, and current LSU head coach Lane Kiffin. Don’t waste oxygen on him. Win or lose, the Rebels will be well-prepared for this rematch and his absence will have no bearing on the outcome.

Georgia’s offense is well-balanced and efficient. They’re good at sustaining long drives. In QB Gunner Stockton they have what feels like the second-coming of Stetson Bennett — unheralded recruit, bided his time as a backup, then took over when the bigger-name guy got injured and never looked back. Georgia’s defense has been prone to slow starts and strong finishes in some games this season. They came back to win at Tennessee and at home against Ole Miss, but fell at home against Alabama — all after giving up sizable early leads. While they locked down the opponent in the 4th Quarter in all three of those games, they really shouldn’t keep tempting fate like that.

The Rebels have been a great story this season, coaching drama notwithstanding. They are led by the dynamic Division II transfer QB Trinidad Chambliss. Leading rusher Kewan Lacy had to leave the first round game against Tulane with a shoulder injury. He is expected to play, but that will definitely be something to watch. The Rebels defense has been….well, serviceable enough to post 12 wins. They can, and have, been run on to a good extent (148 ypg). They are going to have to do better in that regard and force Georgia into 3rd-and-long, where their much more effective pass defense can get them off the field.

My Pick: This should be a great game. Like last time, expect Ole Miss to start fast. Georgia has not played since the SEC championship game (Dec. 6). Again, a question of rust and layoff. I expect a closer game than their first meeting.

Georgia win/Ole Miss cover

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Who’s In?

Ohio State and Indiana finished ranked 1 and 2, respectively. When they meet in the Big Ten Championship Game it will strictly be for a conference banner and the #1 overall seed. The loser is very unlikely to drop out of the Top 4, so there really isn’t a great deal hinging on the outcome of this one. If you were to ask both teams what they really want most out of the game, it would almost certainly be no serious injuries.

Georgia is in a similar spot sitting at #3. They will play Alabama for the SEC Championship (again), but probably remain in the Top 4 even if they lose. The Tide have definitely had their number over the years, even without Nick Saban stalking the sideline, so winning this one would feel nice for the Bulldogs. But if you were to force them to choose between winning or emerging from the game healthy, I think they’d choose the latter.

#4 Texas Tech was the main beneficiary of Texas A&M’s loss. They now hold a spot for a first round bye and should keep it if they defeat BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game. Lose and they probably drop, but not all the way out of the playoff bracket. The Red Raiders defeated the Cougars 29-7 in Lubbock in November.

Oregon and Ole Miss also moved up after the Texas A&M loss to #5 and #6, respectively. At that spot the Ducks will be hosting one of Tulane/North Texas/James Madison on Dec 19th or 20th. The Rebels, who rightfully were not dropped after Lane Kiffin’s departure, will host one of Virginia/Tulane/North Texas on the 19th or 20th. More on how that might shake out later.

I need to give Texas A&M their own little section here. They dropped from #3 to #7 after their 27-17 loss to Texas, which also eliminated their chances to play for the SEC title. I’ve long assumed the Aggies deserved their high ranking after beating Notre Dame in South Bend in Week 3. Now I’m wondering if they are a low-key fraud. What else is on their resume besides that? Of the SEC teams they played, only one had a winning record in conference….Texas, a loss. Their best SEC win came against Missouri, a team that had exactly zero wins against opponents that finished with a winning record. Of the bottom five teams in the SEC standings, the Aggies played them all. Half of the SEC teams they played fired their coach. I think you get my point. Nonetheless, they should still end up hosting a game at home in the first round, even if they drop a spot. (see: Alabama)

Oklahoma held on to their #8 spot from last week. Right now they would host the #9 team at home. But that could change. While they are unlikely to move up, they could get bumped down and have to hit the road in the first round.

Alabama jumped Notre Dame from #10 to #9 after beating 5-win Auburn. Why? Apparently the committee was impressed that they went on the road and won a rivalry game where they were impressive in the 1st Half (much less so in the 2nd Half) and specifically praised the coaching staff for going for it on a 4th-and-goal in the 4th Qtr, with the game tied, instead of taking the field goal for a 3 point lead. Whatever. The Irish won convincingly at Stanford, but I guess it wasn’t enough, and if things break wrong for them Saturday they could get left out (again, more on that in a bit). As for Alabama, I have to believe if they lose to Georgia they won’t drop out of the playoff bracket. The big question is what happens if they win? How far should they move up? Ahead of Oklahoma, who defeated them couple weeks ago? Should they ascend all the way to the Top 4? They would have some great wins (Georgia twice, Vanderbilt and Tennessee). But the stench of that opening loss at Florida State….how much does that hurt?

Who Has Work To Do, Or Needs Help?

So #10 Notre Dame is now surprisingly in a precarious spot, and they need to root for the chalk to hold Saturday, especially in the Big 12. Obviously they can only get in as an at-large, and with two teams ranked well below them certain to get in as conference champions, they cannot fall below #10. But the bigger risk is if #11 BYU upsets Texas Tech. The Cougars automatically be  in the playoff as a conference champion, whether they jump Notre Dame in the final rankings or not. That’s why getting leap-frogged by Alabama was such a big deal. Now it’s possible that if Alabama loses to Georgia they would drop back down to the 10 spot, making the Tide a potential victim if BYU pulls the upset. But that would seem an odd move by the committee. The more I see how this whole rankings thing works, the more confused I get.

Since we touched on BYU already (they must win, or they have no chance) that leaves #12 Miami and #13 Texas as teams who will probably generate a lot of discussion, but have no realistic chance of moving into the field. The Hurricanes are simply the victim of an ACC tie-breaker process that left them out of the conference title game in favor of 7-5 Duke. So if Miami wants to do some lobbying, do it at the next conference meeting. Still, it’s pretty dumb that the best team by far in the conference can’t even play for the title. As for Texas….yeah, you have some great wins on your resume (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M). And no shame at all in that 7-point loss at Ohio State. The 25-point loss at Georgia is a bit unsightly, but it was losing to 4-win Florida is what truly sank your chances. Sorry, but you gotta take care of business against teams like that.

The ACC-mageddon scenario I’ve alluded to in the past has almost come to fruition. #17 Virginia will play Duke (again, 7-5) for the conference title. If the Cavs win, they are in. We have no idea where the committee would put Duke if they actually ranked every team in FBS, but safe to say it would not be ahead of the AAC champion, or #25 James Madison if they win the Sun Belt, and maybe not even ahead of UNLV if they win the Mountain West. So yeah, the ACC will most likely be left out if Virginia loses. Bad look.

The AAC Championship is a play-in game between #20 Tulane and #24 North Texas, with the winner getting the #12 seed if Virginia wins, or the #11 seed if Duke wins. #25 James Madison must defeat Troy, then hope for chaos in the ACC.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

Coaching Carousel

Too much activity to list it all here, but I have random thoughts on a couple things.

I’m not sure how much more there is to say about the Lane Kiffin situation that hasn’t already been said. I’ll just add my 2-cents:

• I understand why he thought LSU was a better job than Ole Miss, and respect his right to make that choice
• The timing stunk, and that’s not all his fault, but that he did leave Ole Miss just as they were officially set to be in the CFP will never stop being a bad look for him
• The belief that he should have been allowed to stay at Ole Miss to coach them in the CFP while also working for LSU is absurd, and Ole Miss made the right decision in telling him to pound sand when he tried to leverage them into letting him do it
• Yes, I know the coaches at Tulane (Jon Sumrall to Florida), North Texas (Eric Morris to Oklahoma State) and James Madison (Bob Chesney to UCLA) will be doing exactly that if their teams make it to the playoff. But I don’t believe that’s an apples to apples comparison. Their current teams do not compete against or recruit in the same waters as the teams those coaches will take over.
• People talk about feeling sorry for the Ole Miss players. Yeah, I’m sure this was a distraction and change they did not want. But I don’t think we need to take pity on them. Those players will rally around each other and maybe even have a chip on their shoulder to prove to everyone that they, and not Lane Kiffin, are the reason Ole Miss is in the playoff for the first time. The Rebels aren’t one of the favorites to win it all, with or without Kiffin, but they’ll be fine.
• Ok, that was more like 5-cents. Sue me.

No idea what is going on at Penn State. They fired James Franklin in October, presumably to get a jump on finding his replacement, and here we are in December and all we know for sure is BYU’s Kalani Sitake turned them down a couple days ago. Um….what have you been doing the past month-and-a-half??? James Franklin found himself another job weeks before you’ll get around to hiring his replacement, for crying out loud. The early signing period for high school players came and went, and only two players signed up for a team with no permanent head coach. Many who were committed have gone elsewhere, including several with Franklin at Virginia Tech. Latest word is they are interested in Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. I think that’d be an excellent choice. Why weren’t you on him weeks ago???

Games of the Week (With the Most CFP Impact)

#24 North Texas at #20 Tulane – 8pm ET (Friday), ABC, Line: North Texas -2.5, O/U 66.5

It’s green on green violence as the Mean Green take on the Green Wave. Both teams will part ways with their head coach after their seasons end. As the over/under indicates, this could be a high-scoring affair in a CFP play-in game. However, the weather in New Orleans currently calls for steady rain, which could be a factor in slowing down the more offense-reliant North Texas. That plus home field makes me lean underdog.

Pick: Tulane win/cover

#11 BYU vs #4 Texas Tech (Arlington, TX) – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Texas Tech -12.5, O/U 49.5

This is a rematch, first won by Texas Tech 29-7, and the game was even more lopsided than the score indicates. In the Cougars defense, leading rusher LJ Martin was hampered by a shoulder injury that day, and they uncharacteristically turned the ball over three times. So I expect a closer game, and unlike the Red Raiders this is do-or-die for BYU. Still, I don’t think it will be enough….Tech is simply the better team.

Pick: Texas Tech win/BYU cover

#9 Alabama vs #3 Georgia – 4:00pm ET, ABC, Line: Georgia -2.5, O/U 48.5

Georgia is just 1-7 against Alabama under Kirby Smart. You know the Bulldogs would love to start evening the ledger. But with no real CFP implications on the line for them I wonder just how focused and committed they’ll be. Alabama should know the result of the Big 12 game by kickoff, and if Texas Tech wins they can probably feel secure in knowing they’re still in if they lose this one. But I have a hunch they’d love to insert a bit of chaos into the rankings and force the committee to move them higher, to at least hosting a first round game in Tuscaloosa. And if BYU wins, they’re likely playing for their playoff lives.

Pick: Alabama win/cover

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The Rankings

Ohio State and Indiana appear to be on a collision course to meet in the Big Ten Championship Game. If the chalk holds over the final two games, and given OSU’s recent history against Michigan that’s no sure thing, both teams should end up with a Top 4 seed no matter who wins the title game. If Michigan does win its 5th straight in the series, then it might be time to get out the tie-breaker list, as the Wolverines, Oregon and USC could still have a shot of playing for the Big Ten Championship.

Speaking of Oregon and USC, Saturday’s game at Eugene may essentially be a play-in game for the CFP. The winner will be well-positioned to at least garner an at-large bid. USC would most definitely be out if they pick up their third loss, and Oregon may also be cooked at just two losses but no wins over currently ranked teams to hang their hat on.

Texas A&M is in the driver’s seat in the SEC. They have a tune-up game this week against Samford before playing their first game in Austin in over a decade. As in the case of Michigan-Ohio State, upsets in these rivalry games are always on the table.

While Georgia holds the higher ranking, Alabama still has an edge over them in the SEC standings via the Tide’s head-to-head win. Georgia has the edge over Ole Miss for the same reason. Alabama and Ole Miss do not play this season. So it looks like it will be 4 teams in the mix for the two SEC Championship Game spots. One thing that appears certain is that preseason #1 Texas is toast (if they get in as a 3-loss team, let the ESPN/SEC playoff-rigging theories fly).

Texas Tech and BYU are currently on track to play for the Big 12 title, but a couple upsets could throw things into chaos. Utah, Houston, Cincinnati, and even banged-up defending champ Arizona State remain in the mix. If Cincinnati knocks off BYU Saturday night at home, get ready for a wild finish.

The ACC is a mess, and I’ll mostly leave it at that. Miami is still the highest-ranked and probably best team in the conference, but they are a long shot to get to the conference title game. The ACC-magedon narrative, in which the conference might get completely left out of the CFP because their champion would be ranked below two of the G5 conference champs, looks increasingly less-likely, but still isn’t completely out of the question.

As for the G5, the American race probably settles it all, but the teams at the top are beating each other up, so that doesn’t help in the CFP rankings and leaves an opening for another conference champion. This week it’s Tulane’s turn to be in the Top 25. James Madison from the Sun Belt remains in the mix, with San Diego State out of the Mountain West being a very long shot.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

1st Rd – Played at home field of highest ranked team

• #24 Tulane at #5 Texas Tech
• #13 Miami at #6 Ole Miss
• #10 Alabama at #7 Oregon
• #9 Notre Dame at #8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinals – Played at TBD bowl site

• Oregon/Texas Tech vs #1 Ohio State
• Notre Dame/BYU vs #2 Indiana
• Virginia/Ole Miss vs #3 Texas A&M
• Tulane/Texas Tech vs #4 Georgia

Coaching Watch List

Not only were there no coaches dismissed since our last writing, but one recently-fired coach already found new employment (James Franklin – Virginia Tech) and the top two on the previous list (Luke Fickell – Wisconsin and Mike Locksley – Maryland) were informed they will return in 2026.

1. Mike Norvell, Florida State – The 5-5 Seminoles have two winnable road games left, at NC State and Florida. Maybe a strong finish where they end up 8-5 saves Norvell’s job. Anything less and I suspect this will be another high-profile opening.
2. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State – The idea of moving on from a coach after just two seasons seems rough, but the Spartans have regressed after going 5-7 last year, and only a season-ending home date with lowly Maryland may save them from going 0-9 in conference. Since MSU isn’t paying former coach Mel Tucker, who was fired for cause, money may not be as big a factor here.
3. Shane Beamer, South Carolina – It’s not getting any better in Columbia after the Gamecocks completely collapsed last Saturday, blowing a 30-3 halftime lead at Texas A&M. Pulling off an upset of that magnitude could have ended any hot seat discussion for Beamer. Oh well. And with the Franklin hiring he’s no longer the sentimental choice to go back to his Virginia Tech roots.
4. Bill Belichick, North Carolina – Do the Giants turn to their past and bring Belichick back to the NFL? Does it matter? The college experiment has clearly failed and a mutual parting of the ways between BB and UNC feels inevitable.

Honorable Mention. Dave Aranda, Baylor – Since going 12-2 and winning the Big 12 title in 2021, the Bears are 22-26 under Aranda. If he’s let go, the SoCal native might be a candidate for the UCLA job.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Texas A&M
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Oklahoma
8. Oregon
9. Alabama
10. Notre Dame
11. Utah
12. Georgia Tech

Games of the Week

#22 Missouri at #8 Oklahoma – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Oklahoma -7.5, O/U 42.5

I’ll say it again….can someone look at Missouri’s schedule and tell me what they’ve done that is so special as to have them in the rankings? Is simply existing in the SEC worth that much? Now the Sooners best not look past this game or suffer a hangover from last week’s huge win at Alabama, but I don’t think they will.

Pick: Oklahoma win/cover

#15 USC at #7 Oregon – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -10.5, O/U 59.5

Believe it or not USC is actually well-positioned to claim an at-large playoff bid. A road win against the Ducks and a victory over cross-town rival UCLA the following week would give them a 10-2 record with wins against two currently-ranked teams (#18 Michigan being the other). Meanwhile their only two losses were both on the road, against #9 Notre Dame and #21 Illinois, by a combined total of 12 points. So yeah, that’s probably CFP-worthy. But when was the last time USC went on the road and won a season-defining game like this one? Yeah, I don’t think so either. I actually think the Ducks win this one by exactly 10, so the Trojans would at least cover.

Pick: Oregon win/USC cover

#11 BYU at Cincinnati – 8:00pm ET, FOX, Line: BYU -2.5, O/U 54.5

This was the biggest game I could find that did not include two ranked teams. This won’t be easy for BYU, and a loss likely throws the Big 12 standings deep into the tie-breaker weeds. But I think the Cougars will prevail.

Pick: BYU win/cover

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The CFP Rankings

Here are my random thoughts about the first rankings.

This is more predictive than resume-based, but I still like Texas A&M a little better than Indiana. But I get putting the Hoosiers ahead based on wins at Oregon and Iowa, versus the Aggies win at Notre Dame and an SEC schedule that so far is mostly lower tier teams.

While I won’t quibble too much over one spot, I like Texas Tech just a bit over BYU based on their record against one common opponent: Utah. The Red Raiders beat the Utes 34-10 in Salt Lake City, while the Cougars won 24-21 in Provo. Of course that score will ultimately be settled Saturday.

All in all, the Big 12 sure feels a lot stronger at the top this season than last year, with two teams in the Top 10 and three in the Top 13. Remember last year the eventual champion, Arizona State, didn’t even crack the Top 25 until the third set of rankings were released.

I agree with Oregon at #9 based on a relatively weak slate of wins, but I don’t think they should be punished too harshly based on what has happened to Penn State. The Lions team that took the field that night in Happy Valley is much different than what we’ve seen since then. I really do think the Ducks broke them.

Do we really believe Notre Dame deserves to be ranked as far ahead of Virginia and Louisville as they are? Or even ranked ahead of them at all? Louisville, who have 1-loss vs Notre Dame’s 2, did what the Irish couldn’t – defeat Miami in Miami. And of course the one team that has beaten the Cardinals is the Cavaliers. Are we really giving that much credit to Notre Dame over a 10-point win against USC? Please. At the very least, put the Cavs and Cards ahead of Texas and Oklahoma, a couple of mid SEC squads.

Interesting to see Iowa get some love while the AP poll has shunned them. They don’t have any good wins to hang their hat on, but narrow losses at Iowa State and to Indiana aren’t nothing.

While no Group of Five team cracked the initial rankings, I doubt that will be the case when the final rankings are released. At this point, it’s hard to see anyone other than the American champion getting the CFP bid. Maybe San Diego State has a long shot, but the Mountain West does not have any good wins out of conference this season and the Aztecs’ lone loss so far, to Washington State, is aging very poorly.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

1st Rd – Played at home field of highest ranked team

• G5 at #5 Georgia
• #14 Virginia at #6 Ole Miss
• #10 Notre Dame at #7 BYU
• #9 Oregon at #8 Texas Tech

Quarterfinals – Played at TBD bowl site

• Oregon/Texas Tech vs #1 Ohio State
• Notre Dame/BYU vs #2 Indiana
• Virginia/Ole Miss vs #3 Texas A&M
• G5/Georgia vs #4 Alabama

Coaching Watch List

Two more SEC schools will be searching for new coaches this cycle, as LSU and Auburn parted ways with Brian Kelly and Hugh Freeze, respectively. In LSU’s case, they also parted with AD Scott Woodward whose track record of coaching hires is….not great (he also gave Jimbo Fisher the deal that led to Texas A&M paying what is still the largest buyout in history). Woodward inspired so little confidence that the governor of Louisiana went on The Pat McAfee Show to state that he would have no role in hiring the next head coach, essentially firing the guy live on the air. Having the governor directly intervening into athletic affairs sure makes the vacant AD and head coaching positions at LSU look more appealing, doesn’t it?

1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – After being shut out for 11 consecutive quarters the Badgers put a touchdown on the board during garbage time in a loss at Oregon. That’s the good news. Seriously.

2. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – Can Maryland come up with the money to buy out Locksley’s remaining contract? Of equal concern is whether they can afford not to.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State – Norvell spared his job for at least another week with a blowout victory against Wake Forest that ended a 4-game losing streak and gave the Seminoles their first conference win of the season. Not exactly a reason to breath easy.

4. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State – The good news for the Spartans, winless in the Big Ten, is two of their final three games are against also-winless Penn State and quit-after-September Maryland. But is that really good enough?

Honorable Mention. Shane Beamer, South Carolina – The Gamecocks entered the season with high hopes, a #13 preseason ranking, and a Heisman hopeful in QB LaNorris Sellers. Now, barring a stunning upset at #3 Texas A&M in their next game, they won’t even be bowling.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Texas A&M
3. Indiana
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas Tech
8. BYU
9. Oregon
10. Utah
11. Virginia
12. Louisville

Games of the Week

#7 BYU at #8 Texas Tech – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Texas Tech -10.5, O/U 52.5

Here is your most likely preview of the Big 12 Championship Game – though Cincinnati might still have something to say about that. Having already been dealt a conference loss, this is a much more important game for Texas Tech than BYU, and it’s in Lubbock, so I like the Red Raiders….though laying 10.5 feels too generous.

Pick: Texas Tech win/BYU cover

#3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri – 3:30pm ET, ESPN, Line: Texas A&M -6.5, O/U 47.5

In my last article I didn’t think Missouri was the 15th best team in the country, and two weeks later I’m not sure they are deserving of 22nd either. But you know what? This feels like a trap game for A&M, coming off a huge blowout win at LSU and the hype of the #3 CFP ranking. Better watch out, Aggies, this game has the makings of a rock fight.

Pick: Texas A&M win/Missouri cover

#9 Oregon at #20 Iowa – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -6.5, O/U 40.5

Kinnick Stadium has long been a house of horrors for visiting Top 10 teams, and I’m not getting great vibes from Oregon after that Indiana loss. Yeah, they crossed the country and boat-raced Rutgers immediately after that, but then struggled against a game, but offensively anemic Wisconsin team the following week. Iowa remains who they have always been – a team that can really fluster opposing offenses with good defense, ball control, and field position. The Ducks persevered and eventually prevailed in that style of game at Penn State, but Iowa is a better team. I smell upset.

Pick: Iowa win/cover

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Let’s Catch Up

Week 8 saw four teams among the AP Top 10 fall.

Beginning with last Friday, then #2 Miami lost its first game of the season, 24-21 to a Louisville team that came into South Florida unranked. It was a mostly sloppy showing for the ‘Canes, low-lighted by four Carson Beck interceptions thrown and an anemic 2.6 yards per carry by a typically potent Miami running game. While the Cardinals are a good team and there is no shame in losing to them, it was a result that has often typified Mario Cristobal teams, where the execution doesn’t consistently match the talent. Fortunately for Miami, the 12-team playoff is a much more forgiving format for hiccups like this, but it does nothing to dispel the narrative that Cristobal’s teams fizzle as the season wears on.

What world are we living in? Vanderbilt went into a game as the betting favorite over #10 LSU. Yes, you read that correctly. Not only that, but ESPN’s win predictor had them as the likely winner through all 60 minutes. Following the 31-24 victory the Commodores got a nice little bump in the AP rankings from #17 to #10.

Top 10 Vanderbilt???? I know what you’re thinking – and yes, I do have the answer. The last time the Commodores were ranked in the AP Top 10 was October 13, 1947. What else was going on that day, you ask? Well, the US engaged in an experiment to seed a hurricane with dry ice in what was dubbed Project Cirrus, and….it didn’t go well, as the storm took an unexpected change in direction and made landfall in Georgia, causing significant damage. In lighter news from that day, the first ever NHL All Star Game was played, and rock legend Sammy Hagar was born.

As for the Tigers, their playoff hopes are on life support, with back-to-bak games against #3 Texas A&M and #4 Alabama up next. Looks like another disappointing season is in the cards for Brian Kelly in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss was dealt their first loss of the season at Georgia, a game in which their offense scored five touchdowns on their first five possessions, but then went dormant for the remainder of the game. The Rebels defense, on the other hand, failed to hold the Bulldogs scoreless on a single possession until the game-ending kneel-down. Luckily for the Rebels, they don’t face any potent offenses for the remainder of the season, so they still have solid playoff hopes.

As for the Bulldogs, they are now 2-1 in games against ranked opponents, and in each case their defense started out pretty poorly as they were forced to storm back against Tennessee and Ole Miss, while coming up just short against Alabama. The playoff and SEC title are still within their grasp, but they need to get off to better starts going forward.

Finally, Arizona State kept alive their hopes of returning to the playoff with a huge win over then #7 Texas Tech, 26-22. The return of QB Sam Leavitt for the Sun Devils after sitting out a loss at Utah due to injury made the difference. ASU is a much different team with him, and they will have to hope he stays healthy to get back in the Big 12 title game.

Meanwhile the Red Raiders will have a good chance to bounce back this week against lowly Oklahoma State, who are still searching for their first win against an FBS team. And while their fans are no doubt looking ahead to a huge showdown against #11 BYU in Lubbock on November 8, the team best not overlook what could be a tricky game at Kansas State the week before that.

Coaching Watch List

If you count the (dis)Honorable Mention, three more coaches from my last list joined the count of the unemployed. But don’t feel too bad for Billy Napier or James Franklin, as they are guaranteed to collect $21M and $45M, respectively. Trent Bray will only get $3.6M from Oregon State, so he may need to tighten his belt a bit. As always though, the coaching carousel proceeds on.

1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – The Badgers have been shut out in their last two games, both at home, and now head to #6 Oregon as a 33.5 point underdog. AD Chris McIntosh gave Fickell the dreaded vote of confidence, but when you look at the brutal schedule the Badgers still have ahead it’s really hard to envision this going on much longer.

2. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – That’s now three straight, and counting, blown 4th Quarter leads for the Terps following their 20-17 loss at UCLA. They also continue their trend of post-September futility. Since college football isn’t moving its season calendar to July thru September anytime soon, it seems Maryland will have to be the one to make a change to improve the situation at College Park.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State – It no longer feels like we’re talking about the same season when we refer to the Seminoles’ Week 1 domination of Alabama. Both teams have been on vastly different trajectories since then, but this is about FSU. I’m sure it’s never easy for an Eastern time zone team to travel to the West Coast and play a game that kicks off at 10:30pm ET, but the ‘Noles ugly loss at Stanford (their fourth straight) cannot be excused. FSU says it will wait until after the season before making any decision on Norvell’s status, but with his team now completely out of the playoff picture and simply battling for bowl eligibility, it doesn’t look good.

4. Hugh Freeze, Auburn – The SEC is an unforgivable gauntlet, and the Tigers’ four straight losses have all come against ranked opponents. Nonetheless, looking at the rest of the schedule a six win season would appear to be the likely best case. Auburn is no stranger to having multiple head coaches on its payroll – as of last season they were still paying Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin along with Freeze. Some things never change.

Honorable Mention: Bill Belichick, North Carolina – This has been a predictable train wreck almost since the day he was hired. There really isn’t much more to say.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Georgia Tech
7. Oregon
8. Miami
9. Vanderbilt
10. Ole Miss
11. BYU
12. Texas Tech

Games of the Week

#8 Ole Miss at #13 Oklahoma – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Oklahoma -4.5, O/U 54.5

After suffering a surprising first defeat against Texas, Oklahoma got right with a dominating 26-7 win at South Carolina. In his second game back following hand surgery, QB John Mateer had a better, though not spectacular, day than in his first game back against the Longhorns in which he threw 3 picks. But thanks to a stifling Sooner defense, it was plenty good enough.

Of course, I already talked about the recent struggles of Ole Miss’s defense. So I guess what I’m saying is, this looks like a perfect opportunity for the Sooner offense to really get on track.

Pick: Oklahoma win/cover

#15 Missouri at #10 Vanderbilt – 3:30pm ET, ESPN, Line: Vanderbilt -2.5, O/U 52.5

Based on their schedule, in which their most impressive result might be a 3-point loss at home to Alabama, I’m really not getting Top 15 vibes from Mizzou. With ESPN College Gameday in Nashville for this one, I like the home team.

Pick: Vanderbilt win/cover

#3 Texas A&M at #20 LSU – 7:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Texas A&M -2.5, O/U 48.5

The Aggies had to fend off a feisty Arkansas team in Fayetteville last week, pulling out a 45-42 win. The result doesn’t necessarily instill confidence in their chances going to Death Valley. Points will likely be hard to come by for A&M, and despite an anemic LSU offense it feels like this could be a very tight affair against a team fighting for their season and maybe their coach’s job.

Pick: LSU win/cover

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Let’s Catch Up

Week 6 was lighter on marquee matchups, but not on consequential results.

We’ll start with the lede, that being the teams with championship hopes entering the season that have crashed and burned. Clemson faded out of the picture from the get-go, so no need to go too deep into them other than mention that last week they further exposed what a farce the Bill Belichick Experiment at UNC has been so far. So the Tigers have that going for them at least.

Texas went to Gainesville to take on a reeling Florida team that is likely in a fight just to be bowl eligible, and took a 29-21 loss. Arch Manning had another mediocre showing, though he got no help from his line in the from of protection or a running game. The Gators were coming off three straight losses in which their defense played well enough to win, but couldn’t get enough out of QB DJ Lagway. But with their backs against the wall the sophomore turned in a solid performance. They’ll need it again this week, and in a much more hostile environment, as Florida heads to College Station to face #5 Texas A&M. As for the Longhorns, it feels like every game from here on is a must-win if they are to make the playoff, and that journey starts Saturday at Dallas against #6 Oklahoma. Arch Manning and a struggling OL against one of the top defenses in the country? We saw that in Week 1, and it didn’t end well for the ‘Horns.

Following a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to Oregon in their annual White Out game in Week 5, Penn State failed to respond in an embarrassing 42-37 loss to previously winless UCLA. The Lions fell behind 27-7 at halftime, and just couldn’t claw back before time expired. They still had a margin of error after the Oregon loss to get into the playoff, but that may have gone up in smoke. The Lions still have games at home against Indiana and at Ohio State remaining on the schedule. If they lose just one of those it becomes hard to imagine a 3-loss team, with one of those coming against the likes of UCLA, getting in.

Finally, in the biggest game of Week 6 Miami held on to defeat their rival, Florida State, 28-22. This game was another case study in why some, myself included, still have trouble declaring the Hurricanes a true title favorite despite clearly possessing the talent. For three quarters they looked unbeatable, holding a commanding 28-3 lead in a hostile environment. But then, as so often has been the case for Mario Cristobal-coached teams, they lost their edge and the Seminoles reeled off 19 4th Qtr points. How great was the threat of FSU actually pulling off an improbable comeback? Maybe not as much as the score might indicate, but if the Seminoles had simply got a lucky bounce on one of their three onside kick attempts, we could very easily be having a different conversation. Cristobal is who he is at this point, but it’s still a shock to see him continue to take his foot off the gas too soon, and apparently he has not learned how hard it is to regain momentum in those situations.

Coaching Watch List

Maybe it’s time for me to rename this the Coaching Reverse Jinx Watch List. After making the list for two weeks in a row, Virginia’s Tony Elliott went and got consecutive overtime wins at home against then-#8 Florida State and on the road at then-unbeaten Louisville. Now the Cavaliers find themselves ranked 19th in the AP. From the hot seat to Coach of the Year candidate. As much as we talk about the coaching carousel, you gotta love redemption stories like this. Well done, Coach Elliott.

1. Trent Bray, Oregon State – Two more frustrating, heart-breaking losses for the Beavers, in what they hoped would be a nice season with at least a bowl appearance. Now they are 0-6 and staring into an abyss. Within the last week their general manager resigned and the special teams coordinator was fired, but that feels like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic at this point. A complete tear-down feels both inevitable and necessary.

2. Billy Napier, Florida – Napier once again appears to have staved off termination. But there is still a feeling that it’s only postponing the inevitable when you look at the Gators’ still-brutal remaining schedule. The SEC is an absolute bloodbath this year, so if he can somehow get the four more wins needed for bowl eligibility maybe that will, and should, be enough for one more year. But the standards and expectations at Florida are much higher than 6-6.

3. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – After the brutal loss at home to Maryland and a bye, the Badgers hit the road and played valiantly against Michigan. But the result was the same….an anemic offense gave them little chance. Unfortunately for Fickell the schedule does not get any friendlier, and a winless conference record might not be out of the question if Wisconsin can’t generate some offense.

4. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – I know the Terps are currently 4-1, and expectations at Maryland aren’t especially high, but the Terrapins now have a very well-established pattern of post-September futility. Not counting the COVID season, under Locksley they are 21-5 in Aug-Sep, and 10-29 in Oct-Dec. That didn’t change course last Saturday, as they blew a 20-point, late 3rd Qtr lead to Washington and fell 24-20. Inexplicably, it also dropped Locksley to 0-8 at Maryland following a bye. With a recently-hired AD on board, Maryland might deem it time to make a change if the team doesn’t reverse the trend.

Honorable Mention. James Franklin, Penn State – Credit Franklin for not hiding from the truth following the loss to Oregon, which dropped his record against Top 6 teams to 4-21. He acknowledged the narrative he doesn’t win big games is real and factual, and until he starts flipping that stat it won’t go away. But then came the inexcusable UCLA debacle. Penn State would owe him $50M if it fired him after the season. That’s a lot to swallow for a coach who has won over 70% of his games and got the team to the CFP semifinals last year. But it’s fair to wonder how much longer simply being on the doorstep will be enough for PSU.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Miami
3. Oregon
4. Texas A&M
5. Oklahoma
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas Tech
8. Alabama
9. Indiana
10. Georgia
11. Georgia Tech
12. LSU

Games of the Week

#1 Ohio State at #17 Illinois – Noon ET, FOX, Line: Ohio State -14.5, O/U 49.5

I’m having a hard time seeing how the Illini will score enough points on the Buckeye defense, which is #1 in FBS in points allowed (5.0 pg) and #3 in yards allowed (215.8 pg). And while 14.5 points sounds like a lot for even the top-ranked team to lay on the road against a ranked opponent, OSU won by 18 two weeks ago against a tougher opponent (Washington) in a tougher venue.

Pick: Ohio State win/cover

#8 Alabama at #14 Missouri – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Alabama -3.5, O/U 51.5

The Tide have righted the ship after that opening loss at FSU, having beaten two straight ranked SEC opponents (Georgia and Vanderbilt). I’m still concerned with their running numbers, both offensively and defensively. But they should be fine against a Missouri team that has yet to face a ranked opponent.

Pick: Alabama win/cover

Indiana at Oregon – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -7.5, O/U 55.5

This is the Hoosiers’ big chance to prove they are different than last year’s team that took advantage of a friendly schedule to make it to the playoff. They don’t necessarily have to win, but if they can go to Eugene and cover then I’ll believe they are a legitimate Top 10 team. The matchup features two potential 1st Round NFL QBs in Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore, but I’ll be watching the defenses in this one. Both are Top 10 in FBS in points and yards allowed. Very evenly matched, well-coached teams. Turnovers and Indiana’s ability to execute its offense in a very loud environment feel like the keys to this game.

Pick: Oregon win/Indiana cover

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Let’s Catch Up

We had three matchups featuring two ranked teams, and we definitely need to talk about them.

Let’s start with the Big Ten. #9 Illinois and #19 Indiana met as ranked teams for the first time since 1950, but only one of them looked the part, as the Hoosiers blasted the Illini 63-10. This game was a shocker in large part because Indiana played a marshmallow soft non-conference schedule and did not look impressive against the toughest of those foes, Old Dominion. Illinois’ schedule wasn’t much better, but they did at least log a blowout win at Duke. Still, many were right to be skeptical.

So where does this leave each team’s CFP hopes? I had this circled as a key game for Illinois to pick up a good win for their resume. They get another chance when #21 USC comes to town on Saturday. They also get #1 Ohio State in Champaign on October 11th. They have to find a way to win at least one of those. The Hoosiers have tough road games at Oregon and Penn State, but no other teams currently ranked on their schedule, so this one might have been critical. And they delivered in a big way.

Another eye-opener was in the Big 12, when #17 Texas Tech visited Salt Lake City to take on #16 Utah. This one started out as a defensive slugfest, but then the Red Raiders went to backup QB Will Hammond in the second half and he finished the game with four straight scoring drives to seal an impressive 34-10 road win. Tech notably spent a lot of money putting together this year’s roster, and it’s showing. Meanwhile the Utes will need to shake this loss off quickly. After a trip to West Virginia they have critical conference matchups against Arizona State and at BYU. (and why are we playing the Holy War in the middle of the season and not the end?)

Finally #11 Oklahoma got its second win in three games against a ranked opponent with a hard fought win against #22 Auburn. The Sooners are now 4-0 (1-0) and look like they could make some noise in the SEC. That’s the good news. Now the bad news. QB John Mateer suffered a broken bone in his hand during the game that required surgery and will keep him out for about a month. That means he’s likely to miss games against Texas, South Carolina and Ole Miss, but can hopefully return to face Tennessee on Nov 1. Still, OU’s offense has struggled greatly without him, and their defense (which looks very good once again) must pick up the slack.

Coaching Watch List

Two names from my previous list, Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, are already gone. So is UCLA’s Deshaun Foster. But there are still plenty of hot seats to go around.

1. Billy Napier, Florida – It’s not getting any better, or easier, for Napier. After losses at LSU and Miami, in which the offense looked mostly inept, the Gators now sit at 1-3. Oh, and they now get to do the Texas two-step against the #10 Longhorns and at the #9 Aggies. Is the mercy rule in effect here? At least Florida won’t lose this weekend….they have a bye.

2. Trent Bray, Oregon State – How did I manage to leave Bray off my first list after Week 1 and 2 debacles in which the Beavers couldn’t execute even the simplest of football actions, like snapping the football cleanly? Since then the Beavs have been outscored 86-21 in two games. Forgive the pun, but the dam has burst in Corvallis

3. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – I truly thought Fickell was an excellent hire for Wisconsin, but sometimes what looks like a home run ends up being just a long fly ball. After leading the Badgers to their first losing season since 2001 last year, they stand at 2-2 and were just dominated at home by Maryland.

4. Tony Elliott, Virginia – After getting a win against lowly Stanford, Elliott gets a bit of a reprieve and drops from #3 to 4 on my list. And the ACC schedule is looking a little friendlier now than it once did. Maybe even a bowl game is possible?

Honorable Mention. Dabo Swinney, Clemson – He has a huge buyout (about $60M) and I’m not sure Clemson can marshall the resources to manage that. And yeah, there’s the matter of those two titles he won the prior decade. But as we know all too well, a ‘chip only buys you so much time.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Miami
3. Penn State
4. Oregon
5. Georgia
6. LSU
7. Oklahoma
8. Texas A&M
9. Florida State
10. Texas Tech
11. Indiana
12. Ole Miss

Games of the Week

USC at Illinois – Noon ET, FOX, Line: USC -6.5, O/U 60.5

Life comes at you fast. Think back to one week ago….Illinois was ranked #9 and riding high. Could you imagine then they’d be nearly a touchdown underdog at home to a team coming in from the West Coast (that is not named Oregon) for a 9am PT kickoff? Yet here we are. I’m not sure to what degree we should write off that debacle at Indiana as a fluke, but I’m sure the Illini will be well-motivated to wash the taste of that mess out of their mouths. I’m also not sure what to make of USC at this point. They kinda pass the eye test. Their best win so far came last week at the Coliseum against Michigan State, but that was still a one-score game halfway into the 4th Qtr. I’ve seen this movie before, and I’m not buying stock in the Trojans just yet.

Pick: Illinois win/cover

LSU at Ole Miss – 3:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Ole Miss -1.5, O/U 55.5

Big early SEC tilt with likely playoff implications. It’s a classic “Something’s Gotta Give” matchup, as LSU’s anemic #112 ranked rushing offense faces the Rebels’ #122 turnstile rushing defense. To add to the Tigers’ woes, QB Garrett Nussmeier has been less than impressive so far this season, despite LSU’s usual bevy of receiving weapons. On the flip side, it will be interesting to see how Lane Kiffin’s high-octane offense attacks a very stout LSU defense. The oddsmakers pretty much have it right, as this really feels like a coin flip. I lean with the home team on this one

Pick: Ole Miss win/cover

Oregon at Penn State – 7:30pm ET, NBC, Line: Penn State -3.5, O/U 51.5

It’s the first real test for these two title hopefuls. The Lions are coming off a bye following an extremely soft non-conference schedule. QB Drew Allar has been okay so far, albeit very untested. Of course the Lions’ bread is buttered in the running game with the best tandem in the sport, Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton. Ducks QB Dante Moore has begun to live up to his 5-star billing, and true freshman WR Dakorien Moore has stepped up to fill in for the injured Evan Stewart. How Oregon’s defense plays will likely determine the outcome in this game. Despite losing, the Lions rushed for 297 yards (8.7 ypc) when the two squared off in the Big Ten championship game last year. Oregon will not be so fortunate if PSU comes anywhere near that number again.

Pick: Penn State win/cover

Alabama at Georgia – 7:30pm ET, ABC,  Line: Georgia -3.5, O/U 52-5

At long last, for the first time since 2015 Georgia gets Alabama in Athens instead of Atlanta, where the Tide have gone 4-0 against head coach Kirby Smart. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, as Georgia’s last game was a come-from-behind overtime thriller at Tennessee, while Alabama cruised at home against Wisconsin. We’ll find out now if the Tide have exorcised the demons of an ugly season-opening loss at Florida State. The good news is the Bulldogs allowed 371 passing yards in Knoxville, and Alabama’s passing game has been much more effective than its ground game so far. On the other hand, I’d be concerned about Alabama’s defense (how many times has anyone had to write that over the years?). The Tide have struggled on third downs (119th in FBS) and in the red zone (112th). The sample size is still relatively small just three games in, but does not sound promising for pulling off a road upset against a Top 5 opponent.

Pick: Georgia win/cover

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Who did I overrate and underrate?

I suspected my preseason #12 Michigan might struggle on offense, but that a stout defense would be able to cover for them. That notion was put to bed when the Wolverines went to Norman and failed to get much of anything going against Oklahoma. Michigan true freshman QB Bryce Underwood will have better days than the 9-for-24, 142 yards, no TDs he posted against the Sooners, but putting them that high in preseason was obviously expecting too much too soon. Oklahoma meanwhile looks like they may have got their offensive issues from last season turned around behind QB John Mateer. It wasn’t an eye-popping game from the Washington State transfer, but against a very good defense it was plenty enough in a 24-13 win that didn’t feel as close as the score indicates.

Looking further back to Week 1 games, I had Alabama at #6 preseason [facepalm]. The Tide made a short trip south to Tallahassee to open the season against Florida State, they of the 2-10 record last season. Well, I’d say the ‘Noles are Exhibit A as to why we should pretty much ignore prior season results in the NIL/transfer portal era. They went from 13-0 in 2023 (I won’t ding them for that Orange Bowl disaster after having their hearts ripped out and seeing half their roster depart before the game) to the 2-win season last year, to a dominant statement win over Alabama in Week 1. The Tide were pushed around for most of the day, surrendering 230 yards on the ground while rushing for just 87 of their own. Dare we say it….Alabama has become rather ordinary. Certainly not the team we’ve learned to fear and revere for so long.

Speaking of surprise teams out of the Sunshine State, what a start to the season for South Florida! After a Week 1 Thursday Night beatdown of then-#23 Boise State, the Bulls rode up I-75 to Gainesville and knocked off then-#15 Florida 18-16, as an 18.5 point underdog no less. Alex Golesh looks like he may be building something special in Tampa. They have another tough non-conference test this week (see below), but right now the Bulls look like they are in the pole position to claim the G5 College Football Playoff spot, while the Broncos probably have to hope for some help at this point. As for the Gators, their next games are at #3 LSU, at #5 Miami, home against #7 Texas, then at #16 Texas A&M. Which brings me to…

Coaching Watch List

1. Billy Napier, Florida – Napier was getting the proverbial standing 8-count as late as last November when the Gators stood at 4-5. But then they logged back-to-back upset wins against ranked LSU and Ole Miss teams to finish a respectable 8-5 and buy Napier another season. Was that strong finish just fool’s gold? Will he even make it to Halloween? The schedule sure does him no favors.

2. Brent Pry, Virgina Tech – Following a 44-20 loss to Vanderbilt, Pry is just 16-23 since returning to his alma mater in ’22. Doesn’t look like he’s the guy to restore the glory of the Beamer era.

3. Tony Elliott, Virginia – Not a great time to be a power conference head coach in the Commonwealth right now. While expectations in Charlottesville might not be what they are in Blacksburg, Elliott’s 12-24 record at the start of his fourth season isn’t very good anywhere.

4. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State – Mike Gundy IS Oklahoma State football, so this is hard to imagine. But after going 3-9 last year, then suffering the worst defeat in program history at Oregon last week, there has to be a conversation in Stillwater right now.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Oregon
4. LSU
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Notre Dame
8. Texas
9. Florida State
10. Illinois
11. Oklahoma
12. South Carolina

Games of the Week

Georgia at Tennessee – 3:30pn ET, ABC, Line: Georgia -3.5, O/U 49.5

Two SEC powers clash early this year in a game that feels like it could be very decisive down the road. Both teams are still breaking in new QBs, much more unexpectedly so for the Vols after Nico Iamaleava sat out pring practice over his NIL deal and then transferred to UCLA. Joey Aguilar (who ironically transferred from UCLA) has been solid so far, but will face by far his biggest test yet. Ditto for Gunner Stockton on the UGA side. Both teams are led by their defense, so the scoring does not figure to be too high in this one (I’m definitely hitting the under). The Bulldogs have won eight straight in this series, and have covered six straight. I think that trend continues.

Pick: Georgia win/cover

South Florida at Miami – 4:30pm ET, The CW Network, Line: Miami -17.5, O/U 56.5

How on Earth does the CW end up with a matchup of Top 25 teams? They must be doing cartwheels down the hallways at network HQ over this. Good for them. This line feels more than a little disrespectful towards the Bulls given their accomplishments in Weeks 1 & 2. I’m sure they’re feeling disrespected right now, so I think this is a little closer than folks think.

Pick: Miami win, USF +17.5

Texas A&M at Notre Dame – 7:30pm ET, NBC, Line: Notre Dame -6.5, O/U 49.5

Notre Dame had a bye to lick their wounds and prepare following a tough Week 1 loss at Miami. You never want to write a team off after only two games in the expanded CFP era, but as an independent with what looks like a light schedule the rest of the way there has to be a sense of urgency in South Bend to get a win here. Meanwhile Mike Elko’s Aggie squad has had two easy home wins against UTSA and Utah State, so this will be their first real test. I think this one means too much to Notre Dame, so as long as they don’t play too tight and limit mistakes, I think they’ll prevail.

Pick: Notre Dame win/cover

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Welcome to another glorious season of college football! The 2025 season is shaping up to be bonkers in all the best ways—historic matchups, star power galore, and enough drama to make an SEC message board combust. So grab your gameday beverage of choice, because we’re diving into the storylines, projecting the top teams, and the players that could make—or break—this season.

The Most Loaded Week 1 Ever?

The word “historic” gets tossed around a lot in sports lexicon, but this year’s Week 1 might actually deserve it. That’s because we have 3 (three!) matchups of Top 10 teams in the AP/Coaches Polls. And as you probably guessed, that has never happened before. The headliner of course is #1 Texas paying a visit to the Horseshoe for a matchup against #2 Ohio State (Coaches poll, #3 in the AP).

Trivia Break: When’s the last time we saw #1 vs #2 right out of the gate? Hint: Never. This has not happened in Week 1 in the AP Poll era (1943). Although back in 2006 we did get #1 vs #2 in Week 2. The matchup? Yep….Texas and Ohio State. That one was played in Austin.

The other two heavyweight bouts feature #5/6 Notre Dame at #10 Miami—a renewal of what was one of the great rivalries of the ‘80s—and the Battle of the Tigers when #4/6 Clemson and #9 LSU square off from Death Valley (the one in South Carolina). So Merry Christmas, college football fans, it doesn’t get any better than this!

Arch Manning Finally Gets the Keys

We’ve been talking about Arch Manning since, what, the Carter administration? Oh, never mind, that was his grandfather. Nonetheless, the former No. 1 recruit and nephew of Peyton and Eli is now QB1 at Texas. And as mentioned above, his first start is at The Horseshoe. No pressure, kid.

Arch isn’t just a storyline—he’s the storyline. If he’s as good as advertised, Texas isn’t just “back.” They’re title favorites. And if he struggles? Well, the internet is undefeated when it comes to Manning memes.

Another Trivia Break: The last UT quarterback to go to Columbus and emerge victorious was Vince Young in 2005. That season ended with some hardware and confetti for the ‘Horns.

Bill Belichick stars in “Back to School”

Apologies to the late, great Rodney Dangerfield, but you read that right. After decades in the NFL, the Hoodie is now roaming the sidelines and chasing coeds in Chapel Hill. How will Belichick’s Machiavellian leadership and magnetic personality translate to the college game, you ask? The memes write themselves: Will the Tar Heels come out wearing sleeveless hoodies for alternate uniform week? Does he secretly hate recruiting? And what happens when a five-star QB tries to negotiate an NIL deal with him? (My guess: he responds with “We’re on to Duke.”)

Fun or failure, this will be one of the more fascinating experiments in recent memory.

One More Trivia Break: The liftoff of Belichick Era at UNC will come against a coach who is no stranger to NFL legends making their FBS coaching debut: TCU’s Sonny Dykes. Dykes and the Horned Frogs, if you’ll recall, were the opponent in Week 1 of 2023 for Colorado and Deion Sanders, a game the Buffs won 45-42.

Playoff Format Shake-Up

We’re in the second, and maybe the final year of the 12-team College Football Playoff era. This season seeds 1-4, and the accompanying first-round byes, will be awarded to the top four ranked teams—regardless of whether they’re conference champs. That raises the stakes a bit for each week’s results. Of course those byes didn’t much help last season, but if you can get a free pass to the next round, you take it without hesitation.

As for what comes in 2026….who knows? December 1 is the deadline for a decision, and it might go right up to the stroke of midnight.

My Preseason Top 12

1. Texas Longhorns

Why they’re dangerous: Arch Manning + a loaded roster. This team looks like a throwback to the Mack Brown glory days—only with better NIL deals and fewer flip phones.

Player to watch: Arch Manning, QB. No surprise here. If Arch plays like a top-five draft pick, Texas is your title favorite. If not? Head Coach Steve Sarkisian will have some explaining to do.

Game to Watch: Ok, enough about the Week 1 game at Ohio State. How about Nov. 15 at Georgia? Texas will be seeking revenge against the team that twice dealt them a loss last year.

Fun Fact: Texas hasn’t started a season ranked #1 in the AP Poll since 1946.

2. Penn State Nittany Lions

What’s up: Drew Allar is back for one more year, and he’s got the best RB duo in the country—Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Oh, and that defense? Still filthy despite a couple high profile departures.

Why it matters: James Franklin has been knocking on the door for years. This is probably his best shot yet.

Game to Watch: Oct. 25 at Ohio State. If Franklin is to walk through that door, it starts with finally beating the Buckeyes.

Fun Fact: Penn State’s last national title was 1986. That was also the year “Top Gun” hit the theaters. So Maverick got his sequel before the Nittany Lions did. Yikes.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes

The deal: Lost some NFL talent, sure—but still stacked. WR Jeremiah Smith might be the next Marvin Harrison Jr., and safety Caleb Downs is the anchor on defense.

The question mark: No question about it…it’s QB Julian Sayin, the redshirt freshman with just 4 game appearances, no starts, and 12 pass attempts on his resume.

Game to Watch: Nov. 29 at Michigan. How big is The Game? Despite winning a national championship Ryan Day may never truly silence his critics until he beats Michigan.

4. Clemson Tigers

What’s at stake: Dabo Swinney is on a mission to prove Clemson isn’t slipping. QB Cade Klubnik has all the tools, but can he put it together for 13 games? That’s the million-dollar question.

Prove it: Clemson made the 4-team playoff six straight times from 2015-20. Then they missed four straight times before sneaking in last year as the ACC champion (but with only the #16 CFP ranking) Tyler from Spartanburg won’t stay quiet if the Tigers don’t make it back with maybe Dabo’s best squad since the Trevor Lawrence era.

Game to Watch: Sept. 6 vs. LSU. Early CFP elimination vibes.

5. Georgia Bulldogs

Why they’re scary: Kirby Smart + friendly home schedule = nightmare for everyone else. They get Texas, Ole Miss, and Alabama all in Athens. Good luck, y’all.

X-Factor: Continuing a common theme among many of this year’s top teams, it’s new starting QB Gunner Stockton. Stockton took over QB1 when since-departed Carson Beck was injured in the SEC Championship game, with mixed results. They’ve got five-star talent everywhere else, so if Stockton can simply make good decisions, that might be enough.

Game to Watch: Sep. 17 vs. Alabama. It’s the Tide’s first visit to Athens since 2015, and the place will be rocking. Bring earplugs.

6. Alabama Crimson Tide

Plot twist: Alabama as an underdog? While I have them a little higher than many, that’s the talk. But they’ve got QB Ty Simpson, WR Ryan Williams, and two future NFL linemen in Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford. Don’t bury the Tide just yet.

Game to Watch: Nov. 8 vs. LSU. Always a war, always playoff implications.

Remarkable Fact: Alabama’s 9-4 season last year was the first time they did not post double-digit wins since 2007, Nick Saban’s first season.

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

What to know: The Irish have swagger again after last year’s playoff run. Like many on this list, they have to break in a new QB (redshirt freshman CJ Carr), but similar to last season the Irish will win games at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Player to watch: RB Jeremiyah Love emerged as Notre Dame’s most dynamic offensive weapon in 2024, rushing for 1,125 yards at 6.9 yards per carry with 17 touchdowns while adding 28 receptions for 237 yards. His 62 avoided tackles and 52.5% breakaway run rate highlight his explosive playmaking ability.

Game to Watch: Aug. 31 vs. Miami. Could be one of the most physical games of the year. Winner vaults into the top-5 playoff discussion instantly.

7. Oregon Ducks

Why they’re interesting: New starting QB, new challenges. They’ve got the defense to win the league, but can the offense led by 5-star UCLA transfer QB Dante Moore go toe-to-toe with the Big Ten powers?

Player to watch: True freshman WR Dakorian Moore (no relation to Dante). The Ducks will need the 5-star talent to immediately step up in place of Evan Stewart, who will miss at least part if not all of the season due to a spring injury.

Game to Watch: Nov. 15 vs. Michigan. Late-season clash with playoff seeding on the line.

9. LSU Tigers

Schedule of doom: Seriously, go look at it. Clemson, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Bama—all on the road. If they survive that gauntlet with one loss, give Brian Kelly the Coach of the Year trophy immediately.

Explosive offense:  QB Garrett Nussmeier returns and LSU reloads at skill positions better than almost anyone. Expect fireworks every Saturday.

Game to Watch: Sep. 27 at Ole Miss. It bears repeating, their schedule overall is brutal…but it feels like this is the game that could swing their season one way or the other.

10. Miami Hurricanes

Are we there yet?: Miami finally matters again…well, maybe. QB Carson Beck transferred in from Georgia, and he’ll need to get us to speed quickly with his new weapons. So will the defense….game-wrecking DEs Akheem Messidor and Reuben Bain Jr. return, but there are a lot of new faces elsewhere.

Game to Watch: Nov. 1 at SMU. With their toughest games at home, this could be a sneaky one on the road.

Fun throwback: Last time Miami made the national title game? 2002. They lost to Ohio State in double OT on that pass interference call. (Sorry, Canes fans.)

11. Illinois Fighting Illini

Who?: Yep, Illinois. You read that right. Bret Bielema’s crew won 10 games last year and brought most of that team back. This might be the best Illinois team since the Reagan era.

Big Ten bully ball: Massive O-line, physical defense, and a throwback style that fits the league perfectly. Bielema knows how to win in the Big Ten.

Playoff dark horse: They don’t have the brand name, but the talent is real.

Game to Watch: Sep. 20 at Indiana. Yeah, they host Ohio State in October, but win this one and they can lose that OSU game and still get in the playoff with an otherwise easy schedule.

12. Michigan Wolverines

Why so low?: New QB Bryce Underwood might be the real deal—but he’s a true freshman. Still, don’t sleep on that defense.

Game to Watch: Nov. 29 vs. Ohio State. This may decide Michigan’s playoff fate (again). But even if they don’t make it, continuing to torment TTDS is a fine consolation.

So there it is. Enjoy an epic Week 1!

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Safe to say that the consensus among college football fans and pundits is that the start of the 12-team CFP era has mostly been a disappointment. We’ve played 10 games thus far and only two have ended within a 1-score margin — though Texas was on the precipice of tying the semifinal game against Ohio State with just over two minutes remaining, but instead surrendered an 83-yard scoop-and-score. Point being this playoff has not delivered many compelling games.

Does that mean that expanding to 12 teams was a mistake, and contracting the field should be on the table? Or could the format simply stand some tweaks? Or is this year just an anomaly and we should just leave it alone and get a larger sample size before making conclusions? I’ll give my thoughts on what we’ve seen and where I think we should be headed before diving into the title game between Notre Dame and Ohio State.

What Could Improve

First things first; I have never heard of any sports league contracting its playoff field, and college football won’t be the first. There’s too much money that would be lost. If anything, we’re more likely to see expansion of the field to 14 or even 16 teams at some point, maybe even in the near future. We’ve long known that what separates the best team from the 12th best team in college football is a wider gulf than in the NFL or other leagues. The unique nature of the sport compels it.

That means you simply aren’t going to avoid having blowout games. They are a part of all competitive sports though. Witness this year’s NFL playoffs. As of the end of Saturday Jan 18, eight playoff games have been played and only one of them was decided by one score. This for a league that is built to foster parity. And for those with shorter memories, the 4-team CFP featured more than its fair share of blowout games. Of the 30 semifinal and final games played between the 2014 and 2023 seasons, just 10 were decided by one score.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t ways to improve the product and potentially give us more competitive games. For starters, I think the seeding needs to be reworked. I’m okay with assuring the five highest ranked conference champions a spot in the field – though I think many years those five teams will be among the Top 12 teams in the final rankings anyway. That was the case for four of the five this year. Only Clemson (#16) got the gift of a bump up, at the expense of Alabama (#11). But once you have your 12 team field, the teams should be seeded in the order of their final ranking. No guarantees of a Top 4 seed for the four highest ranked conference champions.

Secondly, we really need to find a way to shorten the layoff for the Top 4 seeds that get a bye in the first round. For those four teams this year, nearly one full month passed between their conference championship game and their first playoff game. While time to rest and prepare is nice, there is a school of thought that these teams were at a disadvantage going against opponents that had a week-and-a-half off after their 1st Round games. Yes, the sample size is small, but that all four conference champions lost seems telling. Just as telling is that three of those lost by double digits, and three (though not the exact same three) fell behind by two touchdowns early in the game. Seems some teams might have had trouble knocking off the rust, and didn’t get it going until it was too late.

How we shorten the layoff gets tricky, and it definitely won’t happen in 2025. The CFP organizers had to thread a needle in terms of scheduling these games. I won’t get deep into the weeds on why, but three three factors influenced how this year’s games were scheduled; the college football schedule, the NFL schedule (they want to avoid going head-to-head with NFL games whenever possible), and the academic calendar (specifically final exams) at the schools. The reason we are likely going to see a very similar, if not identical, setup next year is due to previously existing contracts from the 4-team era with the bowl games that are part of the CFP. But after the 2025 season those contracts expire. Additionally, no format has been decided for 2026 and beyond. So the CFP will be working with a clean slate. Options like moving up the official start of the season by one week (to what we now call Week Zero, when a very limited amount of games are played) should be on the table. Starting and ending the season a week earlier gives more flexibility for postseason scheduling.

Finally, let the Top 4 seeds that had a 1st Round bye host the quarterfinal games on their campus, just like the higher seeded 1st Round teams did. While the 1st Round wasn’t very competitive, where those games did deliver was the in-stadium atmosphere. If having that longer layoff is actually a detriment to the teams with a bye, why not level the field by letting them play in their home stadium instead of some neutral field bowl game?

Ok, that’s enough for now. On to the title game.

#5 Notre Dame vs #6 Ohio State

Monday January 20, 2025 – Atlanta, GA

Line: Ohio State -8.5, O/U: 45.5

What a season it has been for Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame’s head coach did a remarkable job bouncing back from an ugly Week 2 loss at home to Northern Illinois and got his team in position to play for the national title. Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State and Marshall for the most covers in the country. That’s a remarkable feat.

The Irish have established a strong identity on the field. They know who they are, and Freeman plays to those strengths. Notre Dame’s victory over Penn State in the semifinal round was a terrific example of good coaching. The Irish didn’t panic. They stuck to their game plan, didn’t flinch when they trailed, and eventually found a way. Freeman will try to make this game look ugly, turn it into a rockfight at the line of scrimmage, limit possessions, and borrow a page from the Michigan playbook.

I don’t think the Irish will pull it off.

Ohio State is dialed-in on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes have big edge in talent, a competent coaching staff, and are playing outstanding defense. Since giving up 32 in a 1-point October loss at Oregon, Ohio State’s defense has surrendered 17, 13, 0, 7, 15, 13, 17, 21, and 14 points. That “21” is a little misleading, too, as it came in a blowout win over Oregon in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal. Offensively in the playoff, QB Will Howard has been efficient, WR Jeremiah Smith has been unstoppable, and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has made all the right calls. Ohio State has already played, and defeated, better competition than Notre Dame in this playoff.

The victory for the Irish was making it this far. It gives Freeman something to build on for next season. I like the Buckeyes to win and cover the spread.

Final score prediction: Ohio State 31 – Notre Dame 16

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