After last season’s failed Charlie Morton experiment, the signing of 36, almost 37-year-old Chris Bassitt may not be the most inspiring of signings for O’s fans, but Bassitt should slot in as a stabilizing piece in a rotation that still very much needed depth.

Bassitt has never had an ‘eye-popping’ season, but he’s the model of consistency. The worst season of Bassitt’s career (min. 30 IP) was his 2024 season with the Blue Jays, where he pitched to a 4.16 ERA over 171 IP; numbers the Orioles would generally be happy with getting out of a mid to back of their rotation pitcher. Obviously, the Orioles are hoping he can pitch roughly in line with his career season average of a 3.64 ERA, 193 IP and 8.4 K/9. There’s no denying those exact numbers would have been massively beneficial last year.

Bassitt’s contract itself is on the higher side from an AAV perspective, coming in at $18.5M for the 2026 season, but his value comes from stability. Four straight seasons of 30+ starts and nearly 200 innings per year. In a rotation that was decimated by injuries last season, availability and consistency may very well be worth the slightly higher price tag for one season.

Let’s take a closer look at Bassitt:

One of the more impressive parts of Bassitt’s game is his extensive pitch arsenal. He throws 8 different pitches, with ~75% of his usage coming from the top 3 (Sinker (~42%), Cutter (~17%), Curveball (~16%)) and the remaining 5 making up the last 25% of pitches thrown (based on 2025 season).

Source: Baseball Savant

Interestingly, Bassitt’s closest pitcher comparison may be none other than the Orioles’ recently re-signed Zach Eflin. Both pitchers sit in the low 90s and rely on the cutter, sinker and curveball. While Eflin relies more heavily on the cutter, Bassitt relies more heavily on the sinker. If we take a deeper look into some of their Statcast metrics, both pitchers also allow similar average exit velocities (87-89 MPH), hard hit rates (35-38%), and barrel % (7-9%).

Realistically, Bassitt slots in as a solid third or fourth starter in the rotation, which we now are expecting to look something like this:

1. Trevor Rogers
2. Kyle Bradish
3. Chris Bassitt
4. Shane Baz
5. Zach Eflin / Dean Kremer

It remains to be seen how the Orioles choose to approach this rotation in 2026, especially with Tyler Wells and Cade Povich also being potential starting options. Wells has struggled with injury and Povich has struggled with consistency, but it certainly seems likely that one or both of them will start at some point in the season despite beginning in the bullpen or even in AAA.

Rogers and Bradish are certainly locked in at 1 and 2 in some order, and it feels like Bassitt is somewhat locked in at the third spot, but it becomes tricky to discern between Baz, Eflin and Kremer after that. Could the Orioles go for a 6 man rotation? With a handful of off days in the first few weeks of the season, I wouldn’t expect it right away, but it definitely shouldn’t be ruled out later on in the season, particularly given the injury histories of Bradish and Eflin.

While this projected rotation would certainly have looked more imposing with Ranger Suarez or Framber Valdez at the top, it’s undeniably much stronger than what the Orioles had going into the 2025 season:

2025 Starting Rotation:

1. Zach Eflin
2. Charlie Morton
3. Dean Kremer
4. Tomoyuki Sugano
5. Cade Povich

In what has been a busy offseason for the Orioles, with the signings of Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, and Ryan Helsley to name a few, Bassitt is just the kind of under the radar move that could pay large dividends. The Orioles don’t need Bassitt to be an ace – they need him to prevent overuse in April, protect young arms in the second half of the season, and give them a chance to win every fifth day as they look to get back on track toward a playoff run in 2026.

The post A Closer Look at the Chris Bassitt Signing appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Both of these games were a tough start for the betting public, with 59% of bets placed on the Eagles to cover the spread (-8.5) and 63% of the bets placed on the Chiefs to cover their spread of 3 points over the Chargers. The Eagles’ studs, namely Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown, also disappointed in the game, with Saquon Barkley finishing 30 yards below his projected rushing line and AJ Brown finishing with a whopping 61 yards below his projected receiving line.

But Sunday is when the 2025 NFL season really gets underway, with a full slate of games to look forward to. We’ve been waiting for this for months, so let’s get right into my favorite bets of Week 1.

(Note: Lines and odds are subject to change)

1. Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos

Pick: Denver Broncos -8 (-110 Fanatics)

Yes, I know 8 points is a large spread. In fact, it’s the largest of the Week. But to me this matchup doesn’t need to be overcomplicated – this is a rookie quarterback in Cam Ward going on the road against a Top 5 defense in the NFL.

The Broncos ranked as the 4th best defense overall, the 5th best pass rush, and 7th best coverage defense in 2024 according to Pro Football Focus, and comes into the 2025 season ranked as the #1 secondary in the NFL (Sharp Football Analysis).

Meanwhile, the Titans finished last season with the 7th worst ranked pass blocking offensive line and 9th worst receiving core (PFF). While not much was done over the off-season to revamp the receiving core, the Titans did at least make some improvements to the offensive line, adding veteran LT Dan Moore Jr and RG Kevin Zeitler to help protect Cam Ward.

Since 2015, rookie quarterbacks are 4-12-1 straight up in Week 1, and 7-9-1 against the spread, and in very few of those instances were those quarterbacks going up against a defense as stout as that of the Denver Broncos.

Both the public and the sharps lean heavily on this side too, with 75% of the bets and 97% of the money coming in on the Broncos to cover the spread.

Give me the Broncos -8 at home.

2. Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Over 46.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)

Two of the worst teams from last season, both with high hopes for 2025 after adding some big pieces to their offenses, face off in what I think could be a sneaky-fun Week 1 matchup. With the key additions of WR/CB Travis Hunter (2nd pick to the Jaguars) and WR Tet McMillan (8th pick to the Panthers), these teams have more potential star power at WR than they’ve had in recent memory.

While it remains to be seen exactly how Travis Hunter’s role will be defined given his ability to play on both sides of the ball, if the depth chart is any indication, the Jaguars are viewing Hunter as a WR first and a CB second.

The Jaguars are also getting their starting QB Trevor Lawrence back, after his 2024 was cut short due to injury. The Panthers and Bryce Young are hoping to build off of a strong ending to 2024 where they finished 7-2 ATS while averaging over 24 points-per-game over their final 9 games.

So, why Over 46.5? These defenses both leave a lot to be desired.

Coming into the 2025 season, the Panthers and Jaguars secondaries are tied for 30th-ranked according to Sharp Football Analytics. And let’s not forget, the Carolina Panthers did just set the NFL record for most points given up in a season last year, allowing a whopping 534 points.

Put simply, I don’t believe either of these teams did enough over the off-season to stop what should be improved offenses for both teams.

I’ll take the Over 46.5 points.

3. Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Pick 1 : David Njoku O47.5 Rec Yards: (-110 FanDuel)

Pick 2: Ja’Marr Chase O80.5 Rec Yards: (-117 BetRivers) and/or Ja’Marr Chase O6.5 Receptions (-118 FanDuel)

Bonus: David Njoku Anytime TD Scorer (+260 on Fanatics)

Pick 1: David Njoku O47.5 Rec Yards (-110 FanDuel) If this clip isn’t evidence enough that Joe Flacco winning the starting QB job for the Browns isn’t exactly what David Njoku was hoping for, I don’t know what is.

In all seriousness, in the limited sample size we have of Flacco and Njoku playing together, their connection has been elite. In the 5 games with these two together, Njoku has averaged 78 yards receiving per game and has scored 4 TDs (across 3 games).

If that’s not enough, let’s also look at the Bengals defense on the other side of the ball. The Bengals gave up the most fantasy points per game to TE in the NFL (10.1) and trailed only the

Panthers with the number of TDs allowed to the position (10 to the Panthers’ 11). The Bengals gave up an average of 65.5 receiving yards per game to the position in 2024, again good for worst in the league.

This game feels like one where the Browns will need to throw the ball a lot to keep up with Cincinnati’s potent offense, and Njoku should be Flacco’s safest target to do just that.

The 47.5 Receiving Yards line feels way too low and Njoku’s +260 odds for ‘Anytime TD’ also feels mispriced here.

Pick 2: Ja’Marr Chase O80.5 Rec Yards: (-117 BetRivers) and/or Ja’Marr Chase O6.5 Receptions (-118 FanDuel)

This might be a chalk pick, but there’s a reason for it. Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving line simply should not be this low. Chase has hit the Over 80.5 receiving yards numbers in 7 of his last 10 games and has hit the Over 6.5 Receptions in 8 of his last 10 games, with his 2 misses being 6 catches each.

As I mentioned for Njoku, I’m expecting some back and forth scoring in this game, and with the Browns’ somewhat murky running back situation I wouldn’t be surprised if Browns’ head coach Kevin Stefanski lets Flacco air it out a bit. With the Bengals doing very little over the offseason besides re-signing Trey Hendrickson to bolster what was a poor defense in 2024, I’m expecting Flacco to have some success. Given this, Burrow will need to respond, and what better way to do so than to feed the best WR in the NFL.

I’ll take either of Chase’s Overs on yards or receptions here.

4. Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Pick: Stefon Diggs O4.5 Receptions (-103 DraftKings)

Stefon Diggs is a tricky player in 2025. Once a top-tier receiver, Diggs’ usage has dropped as he has aged, and he is coming off of a season-ending ACL injury.

With that being said, I think Diggs can easily have a 5+ catch game here. The Patriots and Drake Maye are in desperate need of a wide receiver stepping up as their WR1 and Diggs is the most likely candidate to do that.

Diggs has hit his receptions over in 7 of his last 8 games (with Houston) and that was while competing with significantly better WRs for targets. The Raiders also had the worst coverage grade in the NFL in 2024 according to PFF, and after doing very little to improve their secondary in the off-season, come in as the worst-ranked secondary in the NFL yet again (Sharp Football Analysis).

The Drake Maye hype is real, and for him to really take the next step as a quarterback in this league, Diggs will need to play a big part.

Honorable Mentions:

1. Derrick Henry Over 82.5 Rush Yards vs Buffalo Bills (-114 FanDuel)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: Under 38 Total Points (-110 BetMGM)

3. Michael Penix Under 21.5 Completions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-120 Fanatics)

4. Mark Andrews Anytime TD Scorer (+170 FanDuel)

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In a best-case scenario, the Orioles go 4-2 in the combined six games against Cleveland and Toronto (and even that feels optimistic) and sweep the historically bad Colorado Rockies. This would put them at 51-56 at the deadline. From there, to reach the 86-win total of last year’s 3rd AL Wild Card team, they would need to finish the season 35-20 — not to mention they currently have the third-hardest remaining strength of schedule in MLB. FanGraphs projects their playoff odds at just 1.6%.

In other words, we can hope and pray for a magical run, but there just isn’t a reasonable path for the 2025 Orioles to make a legitimate playoff push.

Despite some promising moments, this season has mostly reinforced an uncomfortable truth: when a team with questionable starting pitching depth suffers one of the more injury-plagued seasons in recent memory, the results are rarely good. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Orioles rank second in MLB in percentage of projected WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) lost to injury this season. It’s no surprise — Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and Tyler Wells have yet to pitch, Zach Eflin and Cade Povich are currently injured, and essentially every player in the Orioles’ starting lineup outside of Jackson Holliday has missed time this season (Cowser, Westburg, Henderson, Rutschman, to name a few).

So the question becomes: Where do they go from here?

I believe two things to be true: 1. It does not benefit the Orioles to hold on to players with expiring contracts for the remainder of this season — they should be sellers at the deadline. 2. The Orioles have the talent to compete in 2026 and should make necessary moves this offseason to do so.

It’s worth noting that the Orioles’ recent trade of Bryan Baker to the Rays for the No. 37 pick in the draft was a clear sign they intend to sell veterans for younger assets.

Focusing on the Deadline: Players Most Likely to Be Dealt

Ryan O’Hearn (~80%)

Currently on 1-Year, $8M deal.

Unfortunately for O’s fans, O’Hearn has likely played his way out of Baltimore with his strong first half. He’s slashing .282/.379/.450 with a 135 OPS+ and would be a valuable addition for any contender looking to add offense, particularly a left-handed bat.

Best Fits: Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres

Zach Eflin (~80%)

Final year of 3-Year, $40M contract. Despite recent struggles and injury issues, Eflin is probably still the most valuable of the Orioles’ starters available at the deadline. Other teams surely remember the impact Eflin had on the Orioles’ 2024 season after being acquired from the Rays.Teams vying for playoff runs that don’t necessarily need an immediate impact player right now, but are looking for someone that could be impactful down the stretch, could be particularly interested in Eflin. The San Francisco Giants, as an example, are a team that could be interested in having Eflin join the likes of Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.

Best Fits: Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros

Charlie Morton (~70%)

Currently on a 1-Year, $15M deal. Morton has turned his season around, pitching to a 3.09 ERA over his last 59 innings. He’s the classic back-end starter that contenders covet for stability down the stretch.

Best Fits: Chicago Cubs, New York Mets

Tomoyuki Sugano (~60%)

Currently on a 1-Year, $13M deal Similar to Morton, Sugano offers veteran depth as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Best Fits: Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox

Gregory Soto / Seranthony Dominguez (~60%)

Both on 1-year contracts Soto and Dominguez offer similar value to contenders: experienced relievers with solid 2025 campaigns (3.67 ERA for Soto, 3.72 ERA for Dominguez). Both have closing and high-leverage experience that becomes especially valuable in October.

Best Fits: New York Mets, Detroit Tigers

Cedric Mullins (~50%)

Currently on a 1-Year, $8.725M deal Certainly the hardest name to include here. It’s impossible not to reflect on the great moments Mullins has provided Orioles fans — often the lone bright spot during the many years of losing. I’m slightly lower than consensus on the odds he’s traded, putting it around 50/50. Maybe that’s my Orioles fandom talking, but it’s hard to envision the Orioles dealing him in the next 10 days. That said, it makes sense to move him despite a mediocre offensive season. His defensive ability and speed could help a contender in the season’s final months.

Best Fits: Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, San Diego Padres

Félix Bautista (~10%)

Currently on a 2-Year, $2M deal (arb-eligible 2026, 2027) Bautista is the Orioles’ most valuable asset on this list, with two more years of club control. In short, I don’t see the O’s moving him. If Baltimore is serious about contending in 2026 (which they should be), Bautista needs to be part of it. Unless a team dramatically overpays, I expect him to stay.

Best Fits: Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies

While this isn’t the article I hoped to write at this time of year, seasons like this happen. There’s nothing fans can do but wait for the next one. Orioles fans will now be watching to see if the front office maximizes returns for these veterans — and whether management takes the necessary steps to build a 2026 contender around this undeniably talented young core.

The post Reflecting on the First Half of the Orioles’ Season & The Path to the Trade Deadline appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The Morton Problem 

While it’s obvious how rough Morton has looked just by watching him, let’s look at some numbers from his season so far (min. 20 IP, via FanGraphs): 

• Morton’s 10.89 ERA is the worst in baseball—more than three full runs worse than the second-worst mark (Tanner Houck, 7.66).
   

• His -0.3 fWAR is the second-worst in MLB.
   

• His -2.90 -WPA (Loss Advancement) is the worst in baseball. This essentially tells us the number of losses a player’s negative plays solely are responsible for.
   

• His 53.5% HardHit% is the second-worst in baseball. 

Some additional context helps explain why Morton has been so poor this season. Morton’s Location+, a FanGraphs metric that measures a pitcher’s command by comparing where a pitch should be thrown versus where it’s actually thrown, sits at 88, second-worst in baseball. His Stuff+, which measures pitch quality—velocity, spin, movement, etc.—is also below league average at 95.  

In short, Morton’s command has been terrible, and his raw stuff isn’t good enough to make up for it. The eye test agrees. 

The question of how much longer the Orioles can continue putting him out there needs to be asked, as once again (similar to last year’s Craig Kimbrel experiment) the Orioles are at odds with what to do when a “washed up” player is given an offseason contract far richer than anything they should have received. 

 Enough on Morton.  

Rotation Rundown 

Let’s take a look at how the rest of the Orioles starting rotation has performed so far.  

Tomoyuki Sugano 

Sugano has been the most consistent of the currently healthy Orioles starters, pitching to a 3.43 ERA and leading the staff with 21 IP. Despite this, I have my concerns with Sugano going forward.  

Sugano’s 9.2% Strike-Out rate is second-worst in the MLB and his xERA (Expected ERA) of 6.40 is actually worse than Morton’s (5.71). What does this mean? Sugano hasn’t been fooling batters and has maybe gotten a little lucky to begin the season.  

While I don’t want to fully discredit his solid start to the season and I do expect him to continue to adjust to MLB hitters, I would ultimately expect some slight regression from his current ERA. I think as O’s fans we would all be very happy if Sugano can maintain an ERA in the mid to high 3s as the season goes on.  

Dean Kremer 

To start 2025, Dean Kremer has essentially done what Dean Kremer has always done, have flashes of greatness (his most recent start against Cleveland) and have clunkers (his prior start where he surrendered 6 runs in 4.2 IP). I do expect Kremer to settle in as he gets more starts under his belt. Unlike Sugano, Kremer’s xERA of 4.61 suggests he’s actually pitchered better than his 6.41 ERA indicates.  

By the end of the season, assuming he stays healthy (a big assumption for this current Orioles roster), I expect Kremer to finish with somewhere around 10 wins and an ERA in the low 4s – essentially filling the role of a mid-to-back-end starting pitcher. Kremer is a pitcher that the Orioles desperately need some consistency out of as we wait for the big names to come back. 

Cade Povich 

I really want Cade Povich to figure it out. I’ve got a soft spot for him, but the reality is he has really struggled so far in the majors. While his first three starts showed promise (8 K vs. BOS, 2 or fewer walks each start), things unraveled in his last outing: 5 walks, 3 HRs, and out before finishing the 4th in front of a sold-out Friday night crowd at OPACY. 

While I do have some optimism for Povich given his age and moments of brilliance, he is also a huge unknown at a time where the Orioles so desperately need some consistency in their pitching staff.  

Injury Woes 

While I hate to blame the way this season has started on injuries, it needs to be said: 

• Grayson Rodriguez (IL15) – Elbow & Shoulder: Rodriguez’s timetable is currently totally up in the air as the Orioles seek second opinions on recent MRI results. While the Orioles ‘remain optimistic’ that Rodriguez will pitch sometime in 2025, we don’t have much to go off of right now.
   

• Zach Eflin (IL15) – Lat Strain: Reports are that Eflin is making good progress in his recovery from a lat strain suffered earlier in April. The next step for Eflin will be to throw a bullpen session hopefully in the next few days, and from there determine his timetable for return. It still remains to be seen whether Eflin will need a rehab assignment or not once cleared to resume pitching.  

• Kyle Bradish (IL60) – UCL: Following Tommy John surgery in June 2024, Bradish is expected to return sometime in the second half of the 2025 season at the earliest.  

• Tyler Wells (IL60) – UCL:  Following reconstructive elbow surgery in June 2024, the Orioles are hoping Wells can return around the All-Star Break.  

• Albert Suarez (IL60) – Shoulder: Suarez’ shoulder injury is expected to keep him out for months, with no clear timetable for a return. 

It isn’t lost on me, or on any Oriole fan for that matter, that the 5 pitchers above could quite literally comprise the Orioles full starting rotation when healthy (with the exception of maybe Suarez, although he pitched well in the role last year).  

Front Office Frustrations 

A rotation starting with Rodriguez, Eflin and Bradish followed by some starter/long-reliever combination of Wells, Sugano, Kremer, and Suarez is almost certainly a Top 10 pitching staff in the MLB, even with the glaring absence of Corbin Burnes. However, given the injury histories of many of these pitchers along with their question marks going into the season, us Orioles fans can do nothing but scratch our heads at the moves Elias made (and didn’t make) in the offseason.  

With a great young core of players currently on extremely team-favorable contracts, (2025 Salaries: Jackson Holliday: $765K, Gunnar Henderson: $782K, Jordan Westburg: $772K, Colton Cowser: $775K, Yennier Cano: $773K etc.) this offseason was the time to spend up on some difference-making pitchers, because if not now, when? 

Final Thoughts 

It’s rough to think that all those years of losing and stockpiling talent (and drafting well) to create an incredibly strong farm system which then turned into 100+ and 90+ win seasons the past 2 years would all culminate to what we’re seeing now.  

Admittedly, the season is young and we are prone to overreacting and recency bias, but if the Orioles continue posting a league-worst ERA it is difficult to envision any real lasting improvement. While continuing to wait for our key pitchers to get healthy, I’m sure I will not be the only one wondering if Orioles ownership and Mike Elias have officially squandered their chance to create something truly special in Baltimore. 

The post The State Of The Orioles Rotation appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Catcher: Jonah Heim (Rangers) vs. Adley Rutschman (Orioles) 

Starting off strong we have Jonah Heim and Adley Rutschman. Both of these guys are top 10 catchers, but Adley is already making a strong case for being the best catcher in the league. Heim has been a slightly above average hitter this season, hitting .258/.317./.438 and posting an OPS+ of 103. Rutschman, on the other hand, comes in batting .277/.374/.435 with an OPS+ of 128. Rutschman also leads all catchers in hits (163) and walks (92). Rutschman is arguably the best player on what has been the best team in the American League this season. Advantage Adley. 

Advantage: Adley Rutschman (Orioles) 

First Base: Ryan O’Hearn/Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles) vs. Nathaniel Lowe (Rangers) 

The Orioles have taken on a platoon strategy at first base this season, with the right-handed Mountcastle typically facing lefty pitchers and the left-handed O’Hearn matching up against righty pitchers (with some DH work for both as well). The Rangers’ first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, however, has played in all but one game this season and has held down the position well. Lowe comes in batting .262/.360/.414 with an OPS+ of 111 while Mountcastle and O’Hearn come into the series batting .270/.328/.452 (117 OPS+) and .289/.322/.480 (122 OPS+) respectively. Lowe, Mountcastle, and O’Hearn enter the series with WARs of 2.6, 2.1, and 1.2 respectively, with Lowe having significantly more at-bats than the other two. The platoon has worked to perfection this season; O ‘Hearn batted .297 with an .802 OPS against righties while Mountcastle has absolutely torched left-handed pitching, batting .338 with an OPS of 1.053. Typically, an everyday starter would have the advantage over a platoon situation, but with how well both O’Hearn and Mountcastle have played all season, I give the combination of those two the edge over Lowe.  

Advantage: Ryan O’Hearn/Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles) 

Second Base: Marcus Semien (Rangers) vs. Jordan Westburg/Adam Frazier (Orioles) 

Whether we look predominantly at Adam Frazier or Jordan Westburg, it doesn’t really matter when the comparison point is Marcus Semien. Semien is a perennial All-Star and has finished Top 3 in AL-MVP voting twice in his career. While Semien’s numbers in 2023 are a tick below the numbers he put up in either of those two Top-3 MVP seasons, they are still prolific. Semien enters the series slashing .276/.348/.478 with an OPS+ of 122 and a bWAR of 7.4, good for 4th-best in the MLB. Semien played in all 162 games this season and has a very strong case for most valuable player on this Rangers team. Meanwhile, Frazier and Westburg have both been solid players; Westburg in particular has been very impressive as a rookie, posting league-average offensive output (OPS 100+) and playing a very strong second base. Regardless, Semien clearly has the advantage over either player right now. 

Advantage: Marcus Semien (Rangers) 

Shortstop: Corey Seager (Rangers) vs. Jorge Mateo (Orioles) 

A case could be made for Gunnar Henderson to be listed as the Orioles’ shortstop, but with Mateo surpassing him in games played at shortstop this season (110 to 83) we’ll save Henderson for third base. It would have been a much closer comparison between Seager and Henderson than this one is –  Seager is clearly the better player than Mateo and it isn’t remotely close. Seager ranks right behind his teammate, the aforementioned Marcus Semien, in bWAR this season, coming in 5th in the MLB at 6.9 despite only playing in 119 games. Even with Seager’s missed time, he will almost certainly rank second in AL MVP voting right behind Shohei Ohtani. Seager’s season has truly been incredible; he has slashed .327/.390/.623 with an OPS+ of 170 which only trails Ohtani’s 184. On the other side we have Jorge Mateo, who, after starting the season on a torrid pace offensively, has totally collapsed and proven that his value really only comes from fielding and baserunning (both of which he is fantastic at). This one is clearly no comparison, strong advantage goes to Corey Seager. 

Advantage: Corey Seager (Rangers) 

Third Base: Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) vs. Josh Jung (Rangers) 

Again, this is assuming Henderson plays third (which he often does, particularly against lefty pitchers) at some point in the ALDS. Before we get into Henderson’s numbers, let’s take a closer look at Josh Jung. Jung has put up a very impressive rookie season, batting .266/.315/.467 with an OPS+ of 109 and a WAR of 2.4 In fact, if not for Gunnar Henderson, Jung would be the betting favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year this season (in close contest with the Red Sox’ Triston Casas). Unfortunately for Jung, Henderson exists and he has been, in most people’s eyes, the best position player on the Orioles. Henderson is slashing .255/.325/.489 with an OPS+ of 125 and a bWAR of 6.3, good for 7th-best in the MLB. Henderson’s statcast metrics are also eye-popping: 100th percentile baserunning run value, 91st percentile avg. exit velocity and 95th percentile hard hit % to name a few. From the looks of it, for as long as the O’s can keep Henderson, they’ll have a perennial AL MVP candidate on their hands. Advantage Gunnar.  

Advantage: Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) 

Left Field: Austin Hays (Orioles) vs. Evan Carter (Rangers) 

In the 23 games Evan Carter has played in the MLB so far, he has lived up to the hype and more. Carter was the #8 MLB prospect and #1 prospect for the Rangers prior to his recent call-up, and it’s clear why. Carter has hit an incredible .306/.413/.645 with an OPS+ of 182 and a 1.6 WAR so far and showed no signs of slowing down in a very impressive Wild Card Series performance. Austin Hays, on the other hand, has put together an impressive season of his own, slashing .275/.325/.444 with an OPS+ of 111. Hays made his first All-Star appearance this season and has been a key piece to the Orioles lineup all year. These two players are diametrically opposed; one is an unproven, incredibly exciting rookie while the other is the consistent veteran where you know what you’re going to get – it’s great but maybe not as flashy as the rookie. This is a close one but I still need to give the edge to Hays based on experience and sample size. I do expect Evan Carter to have an impressive series and is undoubtedly one of the Rangers’ biggest offensive threats in this series, but 23 games, no matter how impressive, aren’t enough to usurp a very good player like Austin Hays. In a year’s time this could very likely go the other way, but for now give me Hays.  

Advantage: Austin Hays (Orioles) 

Center Field: Cedric Mullins (Orioles) vs. Leody Taveras (Rangers) 

A strong case can be made that Cedric Mullins has been the most valuable Oriole of the 2020s (despite only playing 48 games in 2020 and 116 this past season). He has been a consistent producer both offensively and defensively for this team for years, as evidenced by the roar from the fans that dwarfs that of most other players on the team whenever he comes up to bat. Mullins is having a bit of a down year offensively for his standards, batting .233/.305/.416 with an OPS+ of 101 on the season. Despite this somewhat disappointing offensive production for Mullins, he has played an incredible center field, ranking in the 92nd percentile in Outs Above Average in the league. Mullins has also delivered time and time again in pivotal moments all season long for the O’s. Taveras on the other hand has been a league-average hitter offensively, slashing .266/.312/.421 with an OPS+ of 97 while also playing a strong center field, tying Mullins in Outs Above Average ranking. Taveras, similar to Carter, is coming off a strong Wild Card Series performance and will try to carry that momentum into the ALDS. While these two players have had fairly similar 2023 seasons, Mullins is the more proven player, giving him the edge. 

Advantage: Cedric Mullins (Orioles) 

Right Field: Anthony Santander (Orioles) vs Adolis Garcia (Rangers) 

Another pretty close matchup here, both of these players are prolific power hitters that have put up very strong 2023 seasons. Santander slashed a .257/.325/.472 line with an OPS+ of 121, while Garcia hit his way to a .245/.328/.508 line with an OPS+ of 123. Both of these players are potentially the best home run hitters on their respective teams, as Santander put up 28 HR and Garcia put up 39 HR (7th best in MLB). Santander also falls short in WAR at 3.0 compared to Garcia’s 4.2. While I wouldn’t want to face either of these hitters as a pitcher, Garcia’s impressive home run totals give him a slight edge over Anthony Santander.  

Advantage: Adolis Garcia 

The total tally comes to a 5-3 position player advantage for the Orioles, but it’s certainly close overall. Both offenses are strong, with the Rangers being the stronger of the two over the course of the season. This is going to be a hard-fought series – while I like the Orioles to narrowly pull off the series win, only time will tell which team’s stars will shine brighter.  

The post Orioles vs Rangers: Position Player Comparison appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Before I get into my Top 5, some honorable mentions: 

Honorable Mentions 

Just missing out on my top 5 but still deserving some recognition for impressive seasons are Yennier Cano, Austin Hays, and Grayson Rodriguez. Cano has been absolutely pivotal to the O’s bullpen and would come in 6th in my rankings had I extended it one more spot. Hays carried the Orioles’ offense for much of the season, especially early on, and despite cooling off a little bit over the course of the year, is still one of the most important players on this team. While Grayson Rodriguez’ slow start keeps him out of the Most Valuable Oriole discussion in my mind, he absolutely deserves some recognition for being dominant since being recalled from Triple-A in July. The scary thing for other teams in the MLB is neither of these lists included Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins, both of whom have missed significant time this season with injuries.  

Let’s get into my top 5 rankings: 

 5. Anthony Santander

Had you told me after the first month of the season that Anthony Santander would even be a consideration for MVO, I wouldn’t have believed you. Going into May, Santander was slashing .213/.280/.362 with a strikeout rate just shy of 30% and a wRC+ of only 75. Santander was having a really tough time making any contact and looked fairly lost at the plate. Yes, we have seen Santander be great in the past, so I don’t think anyone expected him to continue to struggle so mightily, but to turn the season around and hit .264/.336/.502 with a 130 wRC+ from May 1 on certainly exceeded my expectations for him at the time. There have been moments of the season where it felt like Santander was carrying much of the O’s offense singlehandedly. Santander’s 3.0 WAR  is the highest of his career, and on a team filled with youth and lacking experience, Santander remains a steady force in the middle of the O’s lineup. 

4. Felix Bautista

This is where it got really hard for me to determine the order of these rankings. I went back and forth for a while on the 4,3, and 2 spots, but ultimately landed on Felix Bautista slotting into the #4 spot. It doesn’t feel fair to put a legitimate AL Cy Young contender for most of the season as the 4th most valuable player on his own team, but ultimately his late season injury gives the 3 other guys ahead of him a slight edge. Now, where to begin with Felix Bautista. In what has been the most dominant season from an Orioles reliever since Zack Britton’s otherworldly 2016 campaign, Bautista has solidified himself in the eyes of most MLB fans as the best reliever in the game. There is no doubt that Bautista has been instrumental to the Orioles’ success this season; they undoubtedly would not come into today at an AL best 93-56 without him. As we saw in past Orioles seasons, being able to shorten the game from 9 innings to effectively 7 is immensely valuable and starts with having a dominant closer. This season’s Cano and Bautista duo is very reminiscent of the Brad Brach & Zack Britton duo from 2016 – in both years the set-up man and closer were All-Stars, with the closer having one of the better statistical seasons ever put up by a closer. Bautista’s current absence can really be felt right now; while Cano has been great all season, he has had some struggles particularly in the 9th inning. The hope is that some combination of Cano, Fujinami, Lopez and company can lock down the final three outs, but Bautista’s absence makes it that much clearer how valuable he has been to this Orioles team. It remains to be seen if Bautista will be able to return from his injury and be a contributor for the Orioles in the playoffs, but regardless, his 33 saves, 1.48 ERA and 46.4% strikeout rate over 61 IP will go down as one of the best reliever seasons in MLB history. Bautista was undeniably one of the most valuable Orioles of the season, and I would have no problem with him winning this award.  

3. Kyle Bradish

Bradish has been the biggest surprise of the season for the Orioles. After starting slowly, pitching to a 6.14 ERA in April, he then went on to pitch to a 2.76 ERA in May, a 3.54 ERA in June, a 2.25 ERA in July and a 2.12 ERA in August. In other words, he has been a clear front-of-the-rotation starter for almost the entire season. In recent weeks, he has even begun to pop up in the AL Cy Young discussion – no, he won’t win it, but it’s great to see. Given the lack of success Orioles starting pitchers have had over the last decade, it’s exciting that Bradish is getting mentioned in the same breath as the top pitchers in the American League, and deservingly so. This season, the Orioles’ starting pitchers have largely been ‘good enough’ but not necessarily exceptional for long stints. Outside of Bradish, nearly every Orioles starter has had fairly long stretches of both great and poor performances. Kyle Gibson pitched to a sub-4 ERA the first 2 months of the season only to then pitch to an ERA north of 6 across June, July and August. Dean Kremer has largely fluctuated month to month in his performance (but has been significantly better as of late). Tyler Wells was the Orioles’ best pitcher through June before hitting the proverbial wall in July, and Grayson Rodriguez, while being absolutely dominant since his second call-up in July, really struggled to start the season. Without Bradish, these inconsistencies from other starters would have been magnified, the bullpen would have needed to eat up more innings, and the Orioles would have without a doubt found themselves trailing Tampa Bay at this point in the season. In fact, a strong case can be made (I think fairly easily) that Bradish’s 2023 season was the best single season performance from an Orioles starter in the last decade.  

 2. Adley Rutschman 

Coming in at #2 is Adley Rutschman. While Adley has struggled a little bit at the plate in September from a batting average perspective (.192), he continues to do what he always does, get on base at a torrid pace and handle the pitching staff spectacularly. As of today, Rutschman is tied with the Dodgers’ Will Smith for first in the MLB among catchers with a .365 OBP, leads all catchers in walk %, and comes in 4th among catchers in fWAR. Rutschman ranks in the 90th percentile in xBA, 95th percentile in Whiff%, and 85th percentile in Blocks Above Avg (Baseball Savant); once again, Adley swings at good pitches, he gets on base, he plays great defense, and he has been the centerpiece of the new look Orioles and their winning culture. By now I’m sure most of us have seen the incredible 87-series sweepless streak the O’s have put together since early 2022, and it’s no coincidence that this streak began with the call up of Adley Rutschman.  

 1. Gunnar Henderson

Coming in at #1 is Gunnar Henderson. Henderson’s slow start to the season (.197 batting average in April) feels like a distant memory, as he has been nothing short of spectacular ever since. Henderson is slashing a strong .260/.330/.503 with 27 HR and 79 RBIs with 2 weeks to go in the regular season. Henderson is truly all you can ask for as a cornerstone piece to a franchise; elite in every facet of the game from hitting for power to getting on base to elite defense and baserunning. Henderson enters today ranked 9th in the MLB in rWAR at 5.9, and ranks in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive rWAR individually…as a rookie. Henderson ranks in the 100th percentile in baserunning run value and 96th percentile in Hard-Hit % across the MLB according to Baseball Savant. Based purely on the eye test this checks out; Gunnar hits the ball hard with more consistency than just about any other MLB player, creates extra runs for the O’s on the basepaths, and saves runs while in the field. Henderson has also moved back and forth between Shortstop and Third Base all season long and has been an elite defender at both. Maybe it’s the energy Gunnar brings to the field, maybe it’s the Sweet Escape walk out song, but Henderson has had O’s fans singing “woo hoo, yee hoo” all season long.  

The post Ranking The 5 Most Valuable Orioles Of The 2023 Season appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

This re-rank marks the first time any organization has claimed the number 1 spot for 5 straight rankings, beginning with the Orioles’ #1 ranking midway through the 2021 season. Keep in mind, this #1 ranking comes AFTER the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and company have all made it to the majors. And just to add a cherry on top, this marks the third year in a row that an Orioles prospect has been ranked in the Top 2 overall in these midseason rankings (Adley Rutschman in 2021, Gunnar Henderson in 2022, and Jackson Holliday in 2023).  

Now that I’ve sufficiently gushed about the Orioles’ farm system, let’s take a closer look at how these 6 top prospects have performed, along with their chances of joining the big league club as part of September’s roster expansion. 

Joey Ortiz (INF, Overall: 54th, O’s: 6th) 

We got to see Ortiz with the big league club very briefly earlier this season, where he hit .212/.206/.242 over just 33 at-bats. Of course, we can’t come to any conclusions offensively based on this very small sample, but personally I was excited to see Ortiz with the club, and was really impressed by some of the plays he made on defense. There’s no doubt Ortiz has been absolutely mashing Triple-A pitching this season, to the tune of a .338/.392/.534 line and at some point that production should be rewarded. At 25 years old, Ortiz isn’t a young prospect, and I think he certainly would be an asset to the team, but the main challenge here is figuring out where he’d play and how often. A theme that will emerge as this post goes on is the fact that the Orioles have a very crowded infield (and whole team really), which is a great problem to have, but one that makes it challenging for prospects like Ortiz to get consistent major league at-bats. Calling up Ortiz and letting him battle it out with Mateo for a spot on the postseason roster is an interesting thought, but one that I think is relatively unlikely, all things considered.  

September Call-Up Chances: 2.5/5 

Samuel Basallo (C/1B, Overall: 50th, O’s: 5th) 

This is an easy one. Basallo is nowhere near being ready for a September call-up, but man is he an exciting prospect. While splitting time between Delmarva and Aberdeen, Basallo is slashing .295/.383/.424, oh, and he’s still only 19 years old. It’s easy to get lost in the hype of the also-19-years-old Jackson Holliday, but let’s remember that being this good this young is not common. It will be exciting to see how Basallo continues to develop; his tools are undeniable.  

September Call-Up Chances: 0/5 

Coby Mayo (3B/1B, Overall: 28th, O’s: 4th) 

While the odds of Mayo joining the big league club at any point this season are rather low, he’s not far away from being big-league-ready based on his production throughout his entire minor league career and especially in 2023. Mayo, while splitting time between Bowie and Norfolk, is hitting .284/.398/.558 to go along with his 21 HRs. Mayo has serious power, and is about as exciting a prospect as any for the O’s. Mayo has slowed down a little bit since his promotion to Triple-A, which should be expected, but it’s only a matter of time until he adjusts to the higher-level pitching just as he did in Double-A. Rumors of Mayo being dealt at the recent trade deadline came and went and it seems clear that the O’s want to do all they can to keep Mayo. With that being said, look to see him some time in 2024.  

September Call-Up Chances: 1/5 

Heston Kjerstad (OF, Overall: 24th, O’s: 3rd) 

It will be very interesting to see what happens with Kjerstad and Cowser in the coming months. Both have absolutely torn up minor league pitching this season and deserve time at the big league level. With Cowser’s struggles in his brief stint with the Orioles, the team could choose to give Cowser some more time in Triple-A and give Kjerstad a shot to prove himself in the majors. In the 2023 season, Kjerstad is slashing  .305/.377/.546 while splitting time fairly evenly between Bowie and Norfolk. Unlike Mayo, Kjerstad has kept up his torrid Double-A pace since being promoted to Triple-A. For what it’s worth, Kjerstad is not currently on the Orioles’ 40-man roster, but that wouldn’t stop the Orioles from calling him up if they think he could add even more of a spark to this offense. I view Kjerstad and Cowser pretty similarly right now and I do think one of the two will be with the O’s in September, with the slight edge going to Cowser right now, but seeing Kjerstad this season would be a welcome sight for O’s fans who have long awaited his arrival since being drafted second overall in the 2020 draft. 

September Call-Up Chances: 3/5   

Colton Cowser (OF, Overall: 14th, O’s: 2nd) 

Another incredibly exciting prospect for the O’s is Colton Cowser. Cowser has flown through the minor leagues, progressing from Rookie and A-ball in 2021 to High-A, Double-A and Triple-A in 2022, to an eventual MLB call-up in 2023. Cowser is slashing .332/.461/.561 in Triple-A this season, yes, that’s an OPS above 1.000. Cowser struggled in his limited time at the MLB level, batting only .115 and showing limited power. Cowser did, however, show a good eye at the plate, walking 13 times in only 61 at-bats. I am not at all concerned about Cowser’s slow start – we saw the same thing from both Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson as they too took some time to adjust to MLB pitching after their initial promotions. If this was the Orioles of prior seasons, Cowser would have stayed with the big league club and would have been given the opportunity to work through his struggles with consistent major league at bats. Fortunately for the O’s, but less fortunate for Cowser right now, the Orioles are fighting for the best record in the entire MLB, so their tolerance for “MLB-adjustment” is relatively low right now. Despite the early struggles, I do expect Cowser to get another shot with the Orioles before the end of the season. 

September Call-Up Chances: 4/5   

Jackson Holliday (SS/2B, Overall: 1st, O’s: 1st) 

Similar to Adley and Gunnar from prior seasons, Jackson Holliday is just so fun to talk about and there’s really not much more to say. After being promoted twice already this season, Holliday is slashing an incredible .336/.457/.531. As a reminder, Holliday does not turn 20 until December of this year. The Orioles have been aggressive at times with promoting their top prospects at a young age. Back in 2012, Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy, both 19 at the time, were promoted to the MLB. However, similar to the situation with Joey Ortiz, the Orioles are certainly not in desperate need of infield help right now. In a normal situation, I would say the chances of a team that is already performing extremely well choosing to call up a 19-year-old infielder in an already crowded infield are extremely low, but this is not a normal situation – Holliday is not a normal prospect. Pretty clearly the best prospect in baseball already, Holliday has done nothing but make a joke out of each level of the minor leagues he has been in, but as we know, the MLB is a whole different ball game (no pun intended). I still think it’s a bit of a longshot for the O’s to actually call up Holliday this season, but I’ll give it higher odds than I would have expected to at the start of the season, and man would it be exciting to see.  

September Call-Up Chances: 3/5   

The post Breaking Down The Orioles Six Top 100 Prospects | September Call-Up Chances appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Let’s start with the rock, Yennier Cano.

Cano was signed by the Minnesota Twins as an international free agent back in 2019 and worked his way up through their farm system before being called up to the big leagues in May of 2022. In August 2022 the Orioles traded their then-all-star closer Jorge Lopez for a package of minor league players including Cano. In his three appearances with the O’s, Cano allowed 9 runs on 9 hits with 7 strikeouts in 4.1 innings pitched before getting sent back down to Triple-A. And look at him now. In the 41 innings Cano has pitched this season, he has only allowed 6 runs on 29 hits while striking out 37 and walking just 6 batters. Cano’s 1.32 ERA is good for 5th best in the majors (min 30 IP).

Cano is in the top 10 percent in the MLB in xEra/xwOBA, Barrel %, expected slugging % (xSLG), and BB%. More simply, Cano has really excelled at getting weak contact and limiting
walks. Besides forcing weak contact, Cano has been stellar at producing ground ball outs – his 65.1% ground ball rate is third in the MLB (min 30 IP) behind only Andre Pallante of the
Cardinals and Jhoan Duran of the Twins.

So the question is, how is Cano doing all this?

It mainly comes down to his sinker being such a dominant pitch. The vertical movement on Cano’s sinker averages 9 inches more than that of the average MLB sinker, good for best in the
league.

When this pitch, which drops an average of 32.5 inches, is thrown at its average of 95.9 MPH, it simply has too much movement at too high a speed for hitters to be able to hit consistently. While Cano mainly throws sinkers, he also has a slider and change-up which can both serve as good out-pitches despite being a little less consistent. These pitches are also significantly above league average in vertical movement, with the change-up and slider dropping 4 and 2.5 inches more than league average respectively.  

Now, this can work because Cano’s command has been great virtually all season. We often see that pitchers with the best stuff have the toughest time with command simply because of the pitches breaking so far.  Cano has been an incredible revelation so far, and he’ll be absolutely crucial for the O’s to continue their successful season.  

Now we move to the mountain, Felix Bautista.  

Bautista, by most accounts, has been the best relief pitcher in the American League if not the entire MLB. Bautista ranks first in the MLB with a 1.16 ERA (min. 30 IP), first in the MLB with an 18.39 K/9 rate, 2nd in the MLB in FIP at 1.61, first in xFIP by almost a full run (1.47 to Jacob Degrom’s 2.30) and to save some time here, is basically leading all relievers in just about every category. To put Bautista’s dominance into perspective, Bautista has struck out 51.3% of the batters he has faced, a full 8% more than the second-best rate in the MLB of 43.4% held by Aroldis Chapman.  

Bautista ranks in the 100th percentile in expected batting average (xBA), strikeout %, and Whiff % and ranks in the 99th percentile in xERA/xwOBA, expected slugging % (xSLG), and fastball velocity. 

So how is Bautista doing it? Well, it’s pretty simple. He gets ahead in the count by throwing 100+ MPH fastballs up and in the corners, and then throws a nasty splitter 10 MPH slower than his fastball that hitters simply can’t make contact with. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt to be 6’7 to add some intimidation and a closer release point to give the hitter even less time to gear up for what’s coming. 

Bautista is pretty much the definition of a 2-pitch pitcher, as he throws his fastball ~70% of the time and his splitter ~27% of the time. Every now and then he’ll mix in a slider, but they are few and far between. The heatmaps of these two pitches are probably the best way of showing what Bautista has been doing all season. He gets that fastball up and in or up and away on hitters and then throws his splitter low and out of the zone causing chases. Bautista’ MLB-best 45.3% whiff rate shows that he has been executing this game plan to near-perfection. 

For the Orioles to continue their playoff push and potentially even go deeper in the playoffs, Cano and Bautista will need to continue their dominance. These two can’t do it on their own, so getting better performances from the lower-end of the O’s bullpen will be even more important as the season goes on. Regardless, it’s worth stopping and appreciating what these two have done as we head into the All-Star break. These two bring back fond memories of Darren O’Day, Brad Brach and of course Zack Britton when thinking back to dominant Orioles bullpens of recent years past.  

Oh, and Felix Bautista’s walk-out at Camden Yards is one of the cooler things I’ve seen at OPACY in a long time. If that doesn’t get you fired up as an O’s fan, I don’t know what does. 

The post A Deep Dive Into the Rock and the Mountain appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The combined Win% of the teams the Orioles are going up against for the remainder of the season is .519 (10th toughest in the MLB), but only 9 of the Orioles’ 25 remaining games are against teams with a sub-500 record. What does this mean? The Orioles simply have no choice but to take care of business against below-average teams, namely the Nationals and the Tigers, and they’ll need to find a way to win the majority of their series even against teams like the Yankees and Astros.

The good news is, the Orioles still have 6 more games against the Blue Jays, so they have the opportunity to gain back some ground. The bad news, however, is the Blue Jays are a very good baseball team. Take it from someone who went to both games of the labor day double-header and got to watch the O’s lose both games badly.

Let’s look at the remaining schedules of the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Orioles, and make some projections through some slightly rose-colored, or should I say Orioles-colored, glasses.

The remaining series for the O’s, along with my optimistic win projections, are as follows:

• Boston Red Sox (3 games, Home): O’s win series 2-1
• Washington Nationals (2 games, Away): O’s win series 2-0
• Toronto Blue Jays (3 games, Away): O’s win series 2-1
• Detroit Tigers (3 games, Home): O’s win series 3-0
• Houston Astros (4 games, Home): O’s split series 2-2
• Boston Red Sox (4 games, Away): O’s split series 2-2
• New York Yankees (3 games, Away): O’s lose series 1-2
• Toronto Blue Jays (3 games, Home): O’s win series 2-1

Key Series:

Sep. 16 – Sep.18 vs Toronto Blue Jays

This 3 game series in Toronto may be the most important series of the season for the O’s. After just losing 3 of 4 to the Blue Jays at home, the O’s will likely need to find a way to win 2 of 3 games in Toronto. Although it doesn’t feel like it (at least to me), the O’s are 7-6 against the Blue Jays this season with a 4-3 record in away games.

I have a tough time projecting any more wins than this for the Orioles, there are just too many good teams they still need to play. Should these series go as I laid out above, the Orioles would go 16-9 over the final 25 games of the season and finish with a final record of 88-74. 

Now let’s take a look at the Toronto Blue Jays’ remaining schedule along with my best-case-for-the-Orioles win projections:

• Texas Rangers (3 games, Away): Jays win series 2-1
• Tampa Bay Rays (5 games, Home): Jays lose series 2-3
• Baltimore Orioles (3 games, Home): Jays lose series 1-2
• Philadelphia Phillies (2 games, Away): Jays split series 1-1
• Tampa Bay Rays (4 games, Away): Jays split series 2-2
• New York Yankees (3 games, Home): Jays lose series 1-2
• Boston Red Sox (3 game, Home): Jays win series 2-1
• Baltimore Orioles (3 games, Away): Jays lose series 1-2

These projections would give the Blue Jays a record of 12-14 over their remaining 26 games, putting their end-of-season record at 88-74. The Win% of teams facing the Blue Jays for the remainder of the season is .537, good for 5th toughest remaining schedule in the MLB. The difficulty of the Blue Jays’ remaining schedule is the one thing keeping the Orioles’ playoff chances alive. Besides the Rangers, every team the Blue Jays will face is vying for a playoff spot.

Finally, the Seattle Mariners schedule along with my projections:

• Atlanta Braves (3 games, Home): Lose series 1-2
• San Diego Padres (2 games, Home): Lose series 0-2
• Los Angeles Angels (4 games, Away): Win series 3-1
• Oakland Athletics (3 games, Away): Win series 2-1
• Kansas City Royals (2 games, Away): Lose series 1-2
• Texas Rangers (3 games, Home): Win series 2-1
• Oakland Athletics (3 games, Home): Lose series 1-2
• Detroit Tigers (4 games, Home): Win series 3-1

This would give the Mariners a remaining record of 13-12, putting them at 90-72 for the season. This 13-12 projection for the Mariners is likely still too harsh, as the Mariners end the season with the second easiest strength of schedule in the MLB, facing a pretty pathetic .439 combined Win%. In short, I don’t see any way that the O’s (or the Blue Jays for that matter) can realistically catch the Mariners.

The remaining strength of schedules for all American League teams are as follows:

Credit: www.tankathon.com

With all this being said, my best-case scenario for the remainder of the season has the AL wild-card race ending as:

1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Seattle Mariners

      T3. Baltimore Orioles

      T3. Toronto Blue Jays

Based on these projections, both the Blue Jays and Orioles finish at 88 wins and the Orioles win the head to head record tie-breaker. Now, is this the most likely outcome? Probably not, but I do think the Orioles still have a legitimate shot in this race.

For some context, this is how some popular playoff-odd-projecting sites are currently projecting the Orioles’ chances of making it into the playoffs:

Clearly, most sites don’t think the O’s playoff odds are all that great, but at this point in the season these projected playoff percentages fluctuate wildly – the O’s playoff odds were as high as 41% on some of these sites just a few weeks ago. I would personally project the Orioles’ playoff odds at about 25-30%. As we know, anything can happen, and regardless, it’s going to be a much more exciting final month of the season than O’s fans could have anticipated.

The post Projecting the O’s Playoff Odds: Is There a Chance? appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Rutschman’s current slashline is .259/.366/.455 to go along with a 3.4 fWAR and a 133 OPS+. Let’s get some perspective here. Mariners’ superstar rookie and current AL ROY front-runner Julio Rodriguez has a 3.0 fWAR while playing 32 more games than Rutschman. Rutschman leads all rookies (w/200+ plate appearances) in wOBA, wRC+, BB% to name a few categories, even after really struggling in his first 20 games (.176 BA). Since his debut, Rutschman is tied for 4th in the MLB in doubles with 24 and is tied for 9th in the MLB in walks. Just for fun, let’s take the first few weeks after Rutschman’s call-up out of the equation. After all, it’s to be expected that even the top prospect in the game will have a bit of an adjustment period at the big league level.

Rutschman and the American League

Here is where Rutschman ranks in some of the key statistical categories amongst all American League players (with 150+ PA) in the last 2 months:

• 5th in OPS
• 4th in OBP
• 3rd in BB%
• 2nd in doubles
• 2nd in WAR
  
  

Once again, that’s not in comparison to all AL rookies or to all AL catchers, that’s to every single player in the AL. And for those curious, the only player ahead of Rutschman in WAR is Aaron Judge who just so happens to be having a historically great season.

Rutschman vs. MLB Catchers
Given the numbers above, it feels a little unfair to compare Rutschman to catchers alone, but if we look across both leagues maybe we’ll get some competition from the likes of J.T. Realmuto and Will Smith, right? No, not really. Sticking with the most recent 2 months, Rutschman is first amongst all MLB catchers in OBP, OPS, wRC+, wOBA, BB%, doubles (by 6) and pretty much every other major offensive category. Ok, we get it, Rutschman is outperforming his catching contemporaries, but how does he compare to some of the best catchers of the last decade in their first full seasons? Since Rutschman has only played ~70 games and games played varies amongst this list of players, I’m going to keep the comparison to rate-stats rather than total counting stats like home runs and RBIs. Let’s see how he stacks up.

The numbers speak for themselves here. Rutschman leads the group in OPS+ and ranks behind only Buster Posey in rWAR despite playing in fewer games than any other player listed. For the sake of comparison, if we were to scale Rutschman’s games played to match Posey’s and scale up his rWAR by the same ratio, Rutschman would be sitting at a 5.1 rWAR. Rutschman ranks behind only Mauer in BB/K ratio and OBP.  By no means am I saying Rutschman is a lock to be the next Joe Mauer or Buster Posey, but based on his performance up to this point in his career, it’s pretty tough to not make the comparisons.

Adley Rutschman’s Progression

As I mentioned earlier, Rutschman started off ice cold, but the scary thing for the rest of the league is just how fast he seems to have adjusted to big-league pitching. His batting average and on-base percentage have both increased each month of the season.

Data from Fangraphs

Maybe even more impressive than his .AVG and .OBP increase is how rapidly Rutschman has been able to improve his plate discipline. The graph below shows The 25-game rolling average of the percent of pitches outside of the strike zone at which Rutschman swings.

Credit: Reddit user pickledhoney, date comes from FanGraphs

To give this some context, the average MLB O-Swing % is ~31%. Rutschman now ranks 10th in the MLB at 21.7%. Put simply, Rutschman’s plate discipline is already elite.

Adley Rutschman Defensively

I’ve talked a lot about Rutschman’s offensive prowess, but much of his value comes from his defensive ability at a premium position. While a great frame job on a borderline pitch might not be as noticeable as a long home run, it’s an extremely important skill for a catcher to have. Just take a look at this textbook framing by Rutschman here.

In fact, Rutschman is well above league-average in called ‘Shadow Strikes’ (borderline pitches just outside of the strike zone) in every single zone with the exception of the bottom right.

According to Baseball Savant, these pitch framing rates put Rutschman in the 89th percentile across the MLB, to go along with an 80th percentile Pop Time to 2B and a 4th strongest arm amongst all catchers.

All this to say, Adley Rutschman is really, really, really good. After only 72 games, a legitimate argument can be made that Rutschman is the best catcher in the MLB and it’s pretty tough to find any serious holes in his game. It’s no wonder the O’s have seen such a quick turnaround in these past few months, and as a fan, it’s incredibly exciting to imagine what Rutschman will accomplish over the next 10 years.

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