First, Some Business…

We’ve had two off-field developments within the past several days that could impact the future of college football.

First, the Protect College Sports Act passed a Senate vote by a wide majority. The bill would enshrine several things intended to bring stability that college sports leadership have been unable or unwilling to implement on their own within existing laws. I’ll go into more details and likely impact if/when it becomes law, but in short it will cap compensation for players via both school revenue sharing and NIL, limit individual player transfers to one throughout their eligibility, limit eligibility to five years within the age range the NCAA recently attempted to institute, limit conference expansion, and require schools to maintain a minimum number of non-revenue sports (both women’s and men’s). It will also give the NCAA an antitrust exemption that will allow the organization to enforce the rules in the bill. It faces an uncertain future in the House, and a ticking clock, as the current Congress concludes at the end of this year with midterm elections looming next month.

The other development is based on reporting from Yahoo! Sports’ Ross Dellenger on impending College Football Playoff expansion. Dellenger reports that multiple sources tell him that expansion to 24 teams is coming, and it’s only a matter of when and what exactly it will look like. It appears to be a compromise between competing desires between the two conference powers; the Big Ten and SEC. The Big Ten was pushing for a 24 team playoff comprised mostly of automatic bids for the Power Four conferences, while the SEC preferred a 16-team format that took the top-ranked teams, regardless of conference affiliation except for guaranteeing one spot to the top G6 team. Now it looks like it will be the Top 24 teams, with the G6 guaranteed one spot.

The new playoff is expected to replace conference championship games, which have lost a lot of significance in the expanded CFP era. There is still a matter of needing to make the conferences whole for the money they will lose without those games — the SEC in particular makes about $100M annually for its title game — but it doesn’t sound like that will be an issue. ESPN is currently in an exclusive negotiation window for the broadcast rights that ends October 9, and then the CFP can take it to the open market. FOX now seems very interested in getting a piece, despite being conspicuously absent from bidding when the 12-team model was up for grabs.

Dellenger’s sources indicate the first round is likely to begin the first weekend in December, the traditional weekend for conference title games. The second round, likely to be played at the home stadium of higher seeded teams, won’t be until the third weekend in December. The Saturday in between will continue to be the exclusive domain of the Army-Navy game and Heisman Trophy presentation. What would happen should either Army or Navy make the CFP is not yet determined.

Who Has Separated?

At this point in the season teams that are separating themselves are those headed in the wrong direction. Starting with teams that made the CFP last year, Oklahoma is not in good shape after following-up their loss at Michigan with an uninspiring 14-6 win against New Mexico and then a 41-13 pasting at Georgia. With Texas up next week, followed by five more teams currently in AP Top 25, the Sooners are probably playing for bowl eligibility and perhaps to save Brent Venables’ job.

Texas A&M is another ’25 playoff team facing a very difficult, if not nearly impossible, pathway back. After a shocking 31-21 loss to Kentucky at home, they had the misfortune of facing a salty LSU squad in Death Valley coming off a bitter loss the week before. Coach Mike Elko has been noncommittal on the starting status of QB Marcel Reed, but there doesn’t appear to be much in the way of options behind him. Could be a tough year in College Station.

Michigan got their just desserts by losing on the final play to Iowa (see Week 1 for that reference). The Wolverines offense just isn’t good enough, and with games against Indiana plus road trips to Oregon and Ohio State left, it probably won’t even matter how the playoff selection committee views that WMU game.

Staying in the Big Ten, what a mess at USC. Losing to Oregon (again) is one thing. Losing to Oregon’s backup quarterback, in the wake of a dirty and classless incident that sent starter Dante Moore to the hospital might be the nadir for the Lincoln Riley era. That game had a similar vibe to Oregon’s trip to Penn State last year. The Lions returned many key players from a team that had made the CFP semifinal the season prior and believed it was finally their year. They had that particular game circled the moment the schedule was released — it was their prime time “white out” game. Then they fell apart in the decisive moments and lost in overtime, and never recovered. James Franklin was fired just two weeks later. USC can still save their season, but it feels so similar to ’25 PSU. I would not be shocked if AD Jen Cohen is putting out feelers to see if the $70M-plus buyout they’d owe Riley could be scraped together. She can at least make the plea that she wasn’t the one who made the mistake of hiring him.

Every Week Is Different

We shouldn’t be too surprised that the week after Ole Miss hung on for an exhilarating win — against the ex who left them at the CFP altar for their longtime nemesis, then showed up at their home with said nemesis in tow — that the Rebels fell completely flat on the road in a 52-28 loss at Florida. Being without RB Kewan Lacy, and QB Trinidad Chambliss playing through a thigh bruise, didn’t help, but didn’t affect the outcome either. They have this weekend to heal before a trip to Vanderbilt, but tough matchups against Texas and Georgia loom, so this one didn’t leave them much margin for error.

Some Good Surprises

Was Oklahoma State’s ugly Week 1 loss at Tulsa an aberration, and the team that the very next week snuck up and pants’d Oregon is the real Cowboys? An impressive 41-24 win at West Virginia got the AP voters’ attention, as OSU debuted at #19. Coach Eric Morris followed a familiar pattern for G6-to-P4 coaches by bringing a lot of his players from North Texas last year to Stillwater with him, and after a tough start it appears to be paying off.

If you are a power conference school in search of a new head coach, it would appear you should look no further than Harrisonburg, Virginia. That of course is the home of James Madison University, who gifted Curt Cignetti to defending national champ Indiana, and now has shared the love with the west coast in the form of Bob Chesney, who has UCLA off to a 4-0 start and ranked #23. The current Dukes coach is a familiar name — Billy Napier. Unlike his predecessors, Napier does have power conference head coaching experience, and it did not go well (he was 22-23 in 3-plus seasons at Florida). Perhaps it’s only Big Ten schools that benefit from the JMU pipeline?

Doubling back to the status in the Magnolia State, how about the Mississippi State? Jeff Lebby’s crew sport an impressive win at Minnesota, drove another nail in Shane Beamer’s coffin at South Carolina, then knocked off #19 Missouri Saturday. We’ll see just how real the Bulldogs are this weekend, as they host Alabama.

Top 10

1. Georgia — Ole Miss was primed for a let down, but that level of domination keeps them at the top for me

2. Texas — It wasn’t pretty, but they got the job done in Knoxville, never an easy place to play. I’ll certainly hear any arguments I should have them at #1 like the others

3. Notre Dame — Style points are important with a relatively soft schedule, and they’ve done it so far.

4. Ohio State — Will they take care of business at Kinnick Saturday, or meet the same fate as many other ranked teams have?

5. Miami — Wake Forest pushed the Hurricanes a bit in Week 3 at Winston-Salem. Another potentially sneaky road trip to Clemson awaits, and they’d be wise to take care of business  

6. Indiana — Northwestern gave them enough of a scare that it’s time to ponder whether they adequately replaced the experience-heavy title team

7. Alabama — That 45-17 Week 2 win at Kentucky is really holding up nicely

8. LSU — The Tigers really took their frustrations out on Texas A&M

9.  BYU — Mark your calendar now for Oct 17 when they host Notre Dame. Provo is gonna be rabid.

10. Florida — Great start for GA Tech transfer QB Aaron Philo

No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State — Noon ET, ABC

Line: Alabama -6, O/U 60.5

Can you name the last Mississippi State quarterback to defeat Alabama? If you guessed Dak Prescott, you’d be….incorrect. It was Wesley Carroll back in 2007. Carroll did not have a great day then — he was just 9/21, 100 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT. Lucky for him his Tide counterpart, John Parker Wilson, had a slightly worse day — including an endzone-to-endzone Pick Six. Alright, that’s enough history. Simply pointing out this series has not exactly gone well for MSU.

Focusing on the present, the Tide have mostly toyed with their opponents thus far, the closest win being 50-36 against Florida State, a game they actually trailed 21-6 early in the 2nd Qtr before emphatically storming back. While Alabama’s defense has been stingy overall, that Florida State showing (471 yards allowed, 8/15 3rd downs converted, 2/3 4th downs) raises a red flag. Mississippi State counters with quarterback Kamario Taylor, who torched Missouri for 360 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 win that kept the Bulldogs unbeaten and pushed them into the rankings. This one has the makings of a high-scoring affair and could be defined by whichever defense can get the crucial stop. I don’t think that favors the Bulldogs even with home field and over 40,000 cowbells behind them.

Alabama win/cover

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa — 3:30pm ET, CBS

Line: Ohio State -14.5, O/U 45.5

Should we be a little concerned with Ohio State’s defense? First it was their 4th Quarter collapse at Texas, then last week they gave up 199 yards rushing to Illinois on 6.0 per carry. They did get stops on 6 of 14 3rd downs, but that’s an eyebrow-raising number. Of course, this is Iowa they’re playing, who have averaged just 18 ppg against power conference teams so far. The Hawkeyes win, especially at home, with their defense and field position game that tends to stress offenses used to scoring at will. But they haven’t seen anyone like WR Jeremiah Smith, who had an insane 12 receptions for 217 yards and 4 TDs against the Illini last week. The Hawkeyes must pressure QB Julian Sayin and not give him ample time to find Smith, or this one won’t be close.

Kinnick Stadium is known as the place where Top 5 teams go to die. Since 2008 the Hawkeyes have gone 5-2 against the Top 5 at home. I don’t think they will make it 6-2, but I’m not a fan of the 14.5-point spread either.

Ohio St win/Iowa cover

No. 8 Florida vs. No. 25 Missouri — 3:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Florida -5.5, O/U 57.5

Am I the only one who doesn’t understand the Missouri love? After an 8-5 ’25 season, returning just 49% of their production per SP+ (76th), they climbed to 19th after wins over Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kansas and Troy. They played Mississippi State tight, but gave up two 4th Qtr TDs to lose yet still sit at the edge of the Top 25. They’ll be facing an offense that has averaged nearly 533 yards per game against defenses better than theirs. By the way, the Tiger D is just 104th in defensive EPA per rush and misses and average of 3.6 tackles per game. Yuk. Offensively the Tigers do move the ball well (418.8 ypg) but they struggle to finish drives (they’ve scored on only 76% of possessions in the red zone).

Could Florida experience a letdown on the road after their big thumping of Ole Miss last week? Of course. But my radar says they take care of business in Columbia.

Florida win/cover

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Quick Hits

We were wrong about Ole Miss at sixth. Florida won 52-28, and it was not close after halftime. Jadan Baugh ran for 142 yards and three touchdowns, Duke Clark added 126, and the Gators ran for 302 yards and six scores. Florida scored touchdowns on five straight second-half drives. Baugh has topped 100 yards in five straight games, which puts him with Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor in school history. Florida had lost 12 in a row to top-five teams.

Ole Miss played without Kewan Lacy, and his replacement ran 11 times for 31 yards. Trinidad Chambliss hurt his left thigh on the second series, rode the exercise bike between drives and still threw for 298. Pete Golding said his team got whipped. We would not argue.

Texas survived Knoxville. Texas won 20-17, and the defense did it again. Colin Simmons, whose boot was precautionary after all, had five sacks, tying Shane Dronett’s program record from 1990. Texas had ten as a team. Simmons also drew an unsportsmanlike flag for a celebration Steve Sarkisian had to answer for afterward. Arch Manning threw for 201 yards with an interception and was sacked six times. Texas committed 11 penalties for 115 yards, gave up a punt-return touchdown and let Tennessee recover an onside kick with 1:22 left. Jelani McDonald knocked down the Hail Mary on the final play. Tennessee still has not beaten the AP’s No. 1 team since 1985.

Oregon won at the Coliseum, and lost Dante Moore doing it. In the second quarter, USC linebacker Desman Stephens hit Moore late on a slide. Stephens was ejected for targeting. Moore left in an ambulance. Dan Lanning said afterward that Moore was moving and would not say more. Dylan Raiola, the Nebraska transfer, went 19 of 25 for 289 yards and two touchdowns, and Oregon won 41-27. The Ducks scored on seven of nine drives and averaged 7.4 yards a snap. Raiola isn’t Moore, but he didn’t play like a backup. USC has lost five straight to Oregon.

Iowa 20, Michigan 19. Hank Brown took Iowa 91 yards and threw a 16-yard touchdown to Reece Vander Zee as time expired. The Hawkeyes got set for that last snap because a Michigan defensive lineman was hurt on the play before and the clock stopped. ESPN’s win probability had Michigan at 98.6 percent with 11 seconds left. It was Iowa’s first road win over a ranked Big Ten team since 2015, and it ended Michigan’s 47-game winning streak when leading at halftime, the longest active run in FBS. Three weeks ago, Michigan beat Western Michigan in the same stadium with an extra second on the clock.

LSU 35, Texas A&M 6. We had A&M covering. A&M was outgained 506 yards to 197. Sam Leavitt went 17 of 23 for 312 and hit Jackson Harris for two touchdowns, one a 57-yarder on fourth down that Lane Kiffin nearly punted away. Marcel Reed completed 10 of 26 for 106 and was pulled in the fourth quarter. The Aggies were eighth in the preseason poll. They are 2-2. LSU paid a price: Leavitt pulled a hamstring, and linebacker Whit Weeks left in a walking boot.

Two home favorites lost to unranked teams. Wake Forest won at Louisville 30-27 as a two-score underdog. Carlos Hernandez caught nine passes for 194 yards, and Gabe Kirschke blocked a 57-yard try in the final seconds. Louisville was flagged nine times for 90 yards and played without two starting defensive backs. It was the third time under Jeff Brohm that Louisville has lost the week after beating a ranked team.

At Beaver Stadium, Wisconsin trailed 17-0 and won 24-20. Colton Joseph threw two early interceptions, then led two long scoring drives, the last ending in a 72-yard touchdown to Jacob Harris on third-and-13 with 1:13 left. It was Wisconsin’s first win in State College since 2003 and Matt Campbell’s first loss at Penn State. Rocco Becht was 12 of 29 for 129 without receiver Koby Howard, who is week to week.

Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24. This was our most model-dependent pick, and the market and SP+ were right. Drew Mestemaker threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns, and Oklahoma State outscored West Virginia 28-10 after halftime. West Virginia ran for 334 yards but threw for 132, and Michael Hawkins Jr. was sacked four times. The Cowboys’ Week 2 win over Oregon looks better every week.

The Heisman board moved. Kamario Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns, including the go-ahead 24-yarder with 3:57 left, as Mississippi State beat Missouri 31-24 to go 4-0. A month ago he was around 150-to-1. DraftKings now has him third at +480, behind Jeremiah Smith (+245) and Darian Mensah (+400). Smith caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns against Illinois, and his 34 career touchdown catches tie David Boston for second in Ohio State history. Chambliss is no longer in the top three.

Power Rankings

Georgia moves up two. Oklahoma came in allowing 7.7 points a game. Georgia led 28-0 at halftime and won by 28 without its top running back, Nate Frazier, who sat with injured ribs. Chris Cole returned a fumble 85 yards for a touchdown. Georgia’s 219 points are the most by the program through four games since 1910. SP+ and FPI both now rate the Bulldogs first in the country. You could make the argument for Georgia at No. 2. We keep Ohio State there because its only loss is by a point at Texas, and Georgia has not played anyone close to that. SP+ ranks the Bulldogs’ schedule 89th.

Florida jumps ten. Four wins, two in the SEC, one on the road at Auburn and one by 24 over the team we had sixth. The Gators have scored at least 40 in every game, the first Florida team to do that since 2001, and Jon Sumrall is the first coach in SEC history with 200 points in his first four games. The models are catching up: SP+ has Florida 12th, FPI tenth and résumé SP+ fifth. Seventh is where the résumé puts them. The next month decides whether it holds: at Missouri on Saturday, at Texas on October 17th and Georgia in Atlanta on October 31st.

Utah rises seven. The Utes have led by 20 or more at halftime of all four games, and they opened Big 12 play with a 31-17 win at Iowa State. SP+ moved them up ten spots to ninth, with the 11th-ranked defense. FPI’s playoff odds now have Utah slightly ahead of Texas Tech, 49.2 percent to 48.3. Utah does not play Tech and does not see BYU until November 7th. We keep them one spot behind the Cougars until then.

Oregon moves up one, and Dante Moore is why it is only one. On merit, a 14-point road win over the team we had 12th is worth more. SP+ has Oregon eighth and FPI ninth. But we do not know when Moore plays again, and the Ducks are off this week. Raiola started two seasons at Nebraska and looked ready on Saturday. We will move Oregon when we know who starts at quarterback against UCLA on October 10th.

Ole Miss falls eight. Two wins over ranked teams got the Rebels to sixth. A 24-point loss to a team favored by 3.5 at kickoff takes them out of the top ten. The defense is the problem. SP+ now ranks it 75th and the team 32nd, and FPI has Ole Miss 19th. Lacy’s shoulder matters. But Florida ran for 302 yards against a defense that allowed 38 to Louisville in Nashville, and that is not an injury. We now have LSU ahead of Ole Miss despite the head-to-head. LSU lost by eight on the road; Ole Miss lost by 24. ESPN’s committee projection keeps the Rebels ahead, and the real committee probably would too. Ole Miss is off, then at Vanderbilt on October 10th.

Iowa climbs three. The 91-yard drive is what people will remember. The more useful fact is that Iowa scored on both red-zone trips and Michigan went 2 of 4. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 with a defense SP+ ranks tenth, and they have won their two real tests by a combined four points. We gave Iowa 20 percent in August. Ohio State comes to Kinnick on Saturday.

USC drops four. The Trojans rallied to tie Oregon with 12:41 left, then never stopped Raiola again. SP+ has USC’s offense third in the country and its defense 49th, down from 35th a week ago. That gap is the team. Lincoln Riley is still looking for the big win, nearly halfway through his fifth season.

Mississippi State enters at 18. Two road wins over power-conference teams, at Minnesota and at South Carolina, and now a home win over ranked Missouri. It was the first win by a ranked Mississippi State team over a ranked opponent since Dak Prescott’s Bulldogs beat Auburn in 2014. Fluff Bothwell ran for 122 yards and caught six passes for 55 more. The defense, 48th in SP+, is the concern. Alabama is next.

Penn State drops four. Up 17-0 at home, the Nittany Lions failed to get a first down on four of their last five possessions. Becht’s 129 passing yards were the story, and Howard’s absence explains some of it. SP+ still likes this team at 15th, on the strength of the 12th-ranked defense. Northwestern on Friday is no gift after what the Wildcats did in Bloomington.

Michigan drops seven. A stuffed fourth-and-1 at the Iowa 18. An interception at the Iowa 2. An unnecessary-roughness flag on third down on Iowa’s final drive. Michigan lost by a point. Running back Jordan Marshall appeared to aggravate an injury, and the line is still without Andrew Sprague. SP+ has the defense ninth and the offense 52nd. The first road game of the season is Saturday at Minnesota.

Texas A&M leaves the ranking. Eleven spots down last week, out this week. The Aggies have lost two straight SEC games, by ten at home and by 29 on the road, and SP+ dropped them 25 spots to 39th.

Texas stays first. Notre Dame and Indiana each slip one as Georgia passes them; Indiana needed Lee Beebe Jr.’s 203 rushing yards to beat Northwestern 29-23 after Turbo Richard was hurt. Miami moves up one as Ole Miss falls. Tennessee slips one as Utah and Iowa pass it, though a three-point loss to the No. 1 team is no demerit. Alabama, LSU, Texas Tech and BYU hold.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 4 AP poll moves Florida to fifth, drops Ole Miss to tenth and brings Mississippi State in at 18th. The real poll was not out at press time. FPI’s post-Week 4 run has Georgia first, Florida tenth and Ole Miss 19th. SP+ as of September 27th has Ole Miss 32nd. We sit between the projected poll and the models on both, with Florida seventh and Ole Miss 14th.

Texas stays first on the best win in the sport. CBS’s overreactions column called the Longhorns a paper tiger and argued they could easily be 2-2. The film supports some of that. Texas ran for 61 yards and converted 3 of 12 third downs in Knoxville, and SP+ has Texas seventh. But SP+ also ranks the Texas résumé third and its schedule fourth-hardest in the country. ESPN’s committee projection keeps Texas first, followed by Ohio State, Georgia, Miami and Notre Dame, and it still has Boise State bumping Oregon out of the bracket.

The Playoff Field

Florida gains 24 points on the week, the biggest rise we have made, and Ole Miss loses 22. Texas moves to 82 and passes Notre Dame; FPI gives the Longhorns 89.6 percent, the highest in the country. Georgia gains seven on a 28-point win over the best defense it has seen. Alabama gains six ahead of a stretch that runs through Starkville and then Georgia at home. Utah gains 16 and Iowa eight. Michigan loses 20, USC 16 and Penn State 14. Indiana gives back four after the Northwestern scare, with Richard and linebacker Rolijah Hardy both hurt. BYU gives back four in its off week as Utah closes in. Texas A&M falls into the field.

The Group of Six rises to 1.10. Boise State won by 25 at Western Michigan, and North Dakota State, 4-0 in its first FBS season, now carries a 28.5 percent playoff chance in FPI. The field grows to 1.39, with Nebraska, UCLA and Pitt all 4-0 and just outside the twenty.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 60 (up 5), Pitt 10 (up 4), Louisville 8 (down 8), Virginia Tech 7 (up 1), SMU 6 (down 2), Virginia 4, Duke 3 (new), Clemson 1 (down 2), field 1 (down 1). Louisville’s home loss to Wake Forest costs it half its number, and the Cardinals go to NC State on Saturday. Friday night in Blacksburg decides who is second. Miami’s only remaining ranked opponent is Notre Dame, which is not a league game.

SEC. Georgia 27 (up 3), Texas 24, Alabama 15 (up 1), Florida 12 (up 8), LSU 9, Ole Miss 5 (down 9), Mississippi State 4 (new), Texas A&M 1 (down 3), Oklahoma 1 (down 2), field 2 (down 2). Georgia moves ahead of Texas for the first time. ESPN’s analytics give the Bulldogs the easiest remaining schedule in the league; they miss Texas, LSU, Tennessee and A&M. Florida has Texas and Georgia in back-to-back games later in October.

Big Ten. Ohio State 35 (up 2), Indiana 25 (down 2), Oregon 16 (up 3), Iowa 8 (new), USC 5 (down 5), Nebraska 3 (new), Penn State 3 (down 4), Michigan 2 (down 4), field 3 (down 1). Oregon’s number assumes Moore comes back. Iowa has a league road win banked and gets Ohio State at home. Ohio State goes to Indiana on October 17th.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30 (down 2), Utah 26 (up 9), BYU 24 (down 3), Oklahoma State 5 (up 2), Houston 4 (down 1), Cincinnati 4 (new), Kansas State 3 (down 3), Arizona 2 (down 1), West Virginia 1 (down 3), field 1. TCU falls into the field after losing to UCF. Tech keeps the top spot on schedule; it plays neither Utah nor BYU. It won 49-14 on Saturday, though Will Hammond threw three interceptions. Cincinnati is 4-0 after beating Kansas State and still has BYU, Tech, Utah and Houston ahead.

Pac-12. Boise State 50 (up 4), Fresno State 15 (up 1), Texas State 11 (up 1), Oregon State 9 (up 2), San Diego State 6 (down 5), Washington State 5 (down 1), Utah State 3, Colorado State 1 (down 2). San Diego State lost 41-16 to Toledo and is 1-3 before its first league game. Boise hosts Utah State on Saturday night.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a fourth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. For the first time, the models split on the top spot.

1. The SEC stays first on results. FPI has eleven SEC teams in its top 25. SP+ has eight, one fewer than the Big Ten, after Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma all fell out. Texas beat Ohio State in Week 2, still the best nonconference win in the sport. Five SEC teams are 4-0: Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Florida and Mississippi State. Four of the top five teams in résumé SP+ are from the SEC. Saturday brings Alabama at Mississippi State, Florida at Missouri and Auburn at Tennessee.
2. The Big Ten has the depth argument this week. SP+ counts nine Big Ten teams in its top 25, FPI eight. Oregon won at USC. Iowa won at Michigan. Wisconsin won at Penn State. UCLA is 4-0 under first-year coach Bob Chesney and routed Maryland in College Park, and Nebraska is 4-0 after winning at Michigan State. Indiana has won 20 straight, the longest active streak in FBS, but needed a two-point stop to get past Northwestern. Against the SEC, the league has Michigan’s 17-10 win over Oklahoma. Against Notre Dame, it is 0-3.
3. The Big 12 holds third. SP+ has four Big 12 teams in its top 25 to the ACC’s three; FPI has it three to two. Utah, Texas Tech and BYU are the top tier, and ESPN’s takeaways column argues the league could put two teams in the field. West Virginia’s win over Virginia in Charlotte is still the head-to-head result between the two leagues. Below the top three it thins. West Virginia lost at home by 17, TCU lost to UCF and is 2-2, and Kansas State lost to Cincinnati.
4. The ACC has Miami and then questions. The Hurricanes beat Central Michigan 52-3 and lead the country in the share of plays that gain ten yards or more. Louisville, which we called clearly second a week ago, lost at home to Wake Forest. The new second tier is unbeaten: Pitt, Virginia Tech and Duke are all 4-0, and Pitt has climbed 17 spots to 20th in SP+. Wake Forest is 12-5 under Jake Dickert. Clemson is 3-1 but lost 51-10 at LSU in the opener and ranks 91st in SP+ offense.
5. The Pac-12 has Boise State and a lot of losses. The Broncos won 32-7 at Western Michigan, the reigning MAC champion. San Diego State lost to Toledo, Colorado State gave up 59 to UTSA, and Washington State lost to Arizona. SP+ ranks Boise 47th, and no other league team is inside the top 60. ESPN’s committee projection still gives Boise the Group of Six bid, but North Dakota State of the Mountain West is now close behind in FPI.

The Week 5 Board

All times Eastern. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 4 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. Pitt at Virginia Tech has the model and the market naming different favorites for the third straight week, and the line has moved further toward Virginia Tech since we took it. ESPN is also more confident than the market in Alabama and Florida. Percentages of 74.2 and 70.2 imply more than 4.5 points.

Predictions

Virginia Tech 24, Pittsburgh 21. In June, SP+ had Virginia Tech 33rd and Pitt 41st. Four games later it has Pitt 20th and Virginia Tech 28th, and ESPN makes Pitt a 57.8 percent favorite. The market has gone the other way. Pitt’s defense ranks 15th in SP+ and has allowed 14 points or fewer in all four games. Mason Heintschel has 13 touchdown passes, and last season Pitt won five straight after he took over as a freshman. Virginia Tech needed everything to beat Boston College 21-14 on Saturday. Friday night in Lane Stadium is worth something, and this should be close. Virginia Tech wins, Pitt covers. Under.

Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 10. Notre Dame had the highest number in our August playoff table, 78 percent, and nothing since has argued with it. The Irish have won 14 straight by double digits, tied for the longest FBS streak in ten seasons. CJ Carr has one interception all year, and SP+ ranks the defense second in the country. North Carolina ranks 88th in SP+ offense and scored 15 against TCU and 20 against Clemson. Notre Dame covers. Under.

Alabama 34, Mississippi State 27. We had Alabama at 40 percent in August. Keelon Russell is the reason it is 62 now. Alabama has scored 40 or more in all four games, and Russell accounted for five touchdowns against South Carolina. Kamario Taylor has 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions, and Mississippi State has gained 400 yards in four straight games. The Bulldogs’ defense is 48th in SP+. Alabama’s is 13th, but it let Florida State convert 8 of 15 third downs. ESPN’s 74.2 percent is more confident than the line, and we lean that way. Alabama covers. Over.

Ohio State 27, Iowa 16. Ohio State was No. 1 in the preseason poll, and we gave it 76 percent in August, second only to Notre Dame. Jeremiah Smith just had 217 yards and four touchdowns. But Illinois ran for 199 yards at six a carry on this defense. Iowa’s defense is tenth in SP+ and its offense 51st, and it has already won two games by a combined four points. Kinnick at 3:30 will not be comfortable. Both models put this around 11 or 12 points, under the 14. Ohio State wins, Iowa covers. Under.

Florida 31, Missouri 27. Florida was not in our August playoff table. Now it sits at 48 percent with the most productive offense in the SEC. Missouri’s defense ranks 14th in SP+, and the Tigers led Mississippi State 24-17 in the fourth quarter before losing. Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns in Starkville, and Cayden Lee caught 11 passes for 156. Florida’s defense is 31st. This is also the game after the biggest win of the Sumrall era, with Texas two weeks out. SP+ makes it close; FPI makes it a touchdown. Florida wins, Missouri covers. Over.

Miami 31, Clemson 13. We gave Miami 71 percent in August; it is 80 now. Clemson opened with a 51-10 loss at LSU and has not scored more than 28 since. Its offense ranks 91st in SP+, and Miami’s defense ranks eighth. Darian Mensah is second in the Heisman odds, and Miami leads the country in explosive plays. Malachi Toney limped off at Wake Forest on September 18th, and his status is worth watching. Death Valley at night will keep it close for a half. Miami covers. Under.

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Quick Hits

Our Week 3 picks went 4-4 straight up, 1-6 against the number and 4-2 on totals. Louisville was the only clean sweep. Alabama won by 14 on a 17.5-point line, and Texas Tech won by two laying ten.Three weeks in, we are 10-10 straight up and 6-12-1 against the number.

Chambliss wins the rematch. Kiffin plucked Trinidad Chambliss out of Division II Ferris State and made him a star. On Saturday Chambliss beat him. Ole Miss led 24-7 at the half, LSU scored 17 straight to tie it with 11:21 left, and Chambliss answered with a 75-yard drive capped by a 14-yard keeper against the grain. LSU then went 69 yards in 13 plays and had fourth-and-goal at the 6. Leavitt’s throw was tipped at the line and intercepted in the end zone. Ole Miss is now 24-1 at home since 2023, the best mark in FBS. Chambliss is playing this season because he won his eligibility case in court.

We were wrong about LSU, and it was not the injury. Leavitt was listed doubtful on Wednesday, came off the report Friday night and played. He threw for 153, ran for 63 and accounted for two touchdowns. We took LSU on the strength of a defense that had held Clemson to ten. Ole Miss had 24 by halftime.

Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21, at Kyle Field. The Aggies were 17-point favorites. Kentucky scored 28 unanswered and outgained A&M 196 yards to 20 in the third quarter. Mark Stoops won one road game against a top-10 team in twelve seasons. Will Stein, who was calling Oregon’s offense a year ago, did it in his first try. His defensive coordinator, Jay Bateman, ran A&M’s defense the two previous seasons, and Marcel Reed finished 26 of 49 with two interceptions. Mike Elko told Stein in the handshake line that Kentucky had beaten his team up. A&M has lost three of its last five games dating to last season.

NC State found a way. Up 31-28 with six seconds left and fourth down at its own 5, NC State sent CJ Bailey out to run around in the end zone and take a safety. He got hit, the ball came out, and Vanderbilt fell on it for a 35-31 win. NC State had not trailed all day. Bailey is a three-year starter. Dave Doeren, in his 14th season, said afterward the ball simply had to be protected. After a lopsided opening loss to Virginia, the Wolfpack are 1-2, and Doeren’s name is starting to show up in hot-seat conversations. Vanderbilt is 3-0 behind freshman Jared Curtis.

Keelon Russell is making the throws now, not just the runs. Tuscaloosa booed the playcalling in the first half as Florida State went up 21-6. Then Alabama scored touchdowns on five straight possessions. Russell threw for 320 yards and three scores without an interception and broke a 57-yard touchdown run. He lifts this offense more than any quarterback DeBoer has had here. The defense is the worry. Florida State converted 8 of 15 third downs against a unit that had allowed 1 of 23, and Duce Robinson caught six for 135. Alabama has now won 88 straight home games against unranked teams.

Florida can score. Jon Sumrall’s Gators have averaged 54 points through three games, the most by any Florida team in program history over that stretch. Last season Florida never scored more than 29 in an SEC game. Jadan Baugh has run for at least 136 yards every week, and Aaron Philo has thrown for 200-plus every week. The 44 points at Auburn were the most by a Jordan-Hare visitor in seven years. Now it gets real: five of Florida’s next six opponents are ranked, starting with Ole Miss on Saturday.

West Virginia is 3-0. Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in from Oklahoma in January. On Saturday he went 10 of 17 for 190 and two scores and ran 18 times for 123 and three more as a double-digit underdog beat Virginia 38-27 in Charlotte. About two-thirds of the 39,377 in the building were West Virginia fans, and Rich Rodriguez said it felt like a home game. Hawkins isn’t a polished passer yet, but he’s fast and he’s fearless. Oklahoma State visits Morgantown on Saturday.

Mensah is the Heisman leader. He completed his first 24 passes at Wake Forest, an ACC single-game record, and his 35 straight across two games were two shy of the FBS record. Through three games he has 873 yards, 11 touchdowns, no interceptions and an 89.9 percent completion rate. He may not even be the best player on his offense. Malachi Toney has 28 catches for 444 yards and five scores. Toney limped off Friday, Mark Fletcher Jr. was banged up, and running back CharMar Brown was carted off with a knee injury.

Hot seats. Rutgers is 0-3 for the first time since 2008. Two weeks after managing 346 yards against UMass, the Scarlet Knights put up 460 on USC, and still lost. Florida State looked like a bowl team in Tuscaloosa, but Ashton Daniels threw three interceptions, the Seminoles are 1-2, and the school fired its athletic director this month. Arkansas trustees called for a review of the program’s competitiveness the day before a 45-17 home loss to Georgia, the Razorbacks’ twelfth straight SEC defeat.

Power Rankings

Ole Miss moves up four. The Rebels own two wins over ranked teams, Louisville in Nashville and LSU at home, and nobody else can say that. Chambliss is calm when the pocket isn’t. He led the winning drive after Kewan Lacy left with a shoulder injury, and Lacy’s X-rays were negative. The preview noted Ole Miss led in the second half of every game it played last season, and it held a second-half lead again on Saturday. The schedule does not ease: at Florida Saturday, at Vanderbilt after the bye, at Texas on October 24th, Georgia on November 7th.

Miami slips one. Ole Miss passes the Hurricanes, and Friday was the first time Miami looked mortal. After Mensah’s 24-for-24 start, the offense went three-and-out four straight times and the defense had to win the game. Toney and Fletcher are both being evaluated. Central Michigan visits before the trip to Clemson on October 3rd.

LSU drops two. A 17-point comeback in the most hostile building on the schedule, lost at the goal line, is not a collapse. The injuries are the concern. Trey’Dez Green hurt his right knee on a catch in Ole Miss territory, and Dashawn Spears left with a lower leg injury. Leavitt has four turnovers in two games after missing spring practice, and no receiver has emerged as the clear top target. The math is now unforgiving. No three-loss team has made the 12-team field as an at-large in three seasons, and the loser of Saturday’s game in Baton Rouge will be 2-2.

Florida enters at 17. A road SEC win in a loud building, with a balanced offense and a running back who looks like a problem for anyone. Baugh carried 26 times Saturday and got stronger as the game went on. The preview flagged Florida as the biggest climber in the CBS 138. The next six weeks will tell us how far.

Texas A&M drops eleven. The preview asked whether eleven wins was the new baseline or the outlier. A home loss as a 17-point favorite to a Kentucky team that lost by 28 the week before is a real answer. The Aggies replaced ten draftees and a rebuilt line, and it shows. After the trip to LSU, five of their last eight opponents are currently ranked.

Oklahoma leaves the ranking. The Sooners needed a fourth-down stop in the red zone to beat New Mexico 14-6, a week after losing 17-10 at Michigan. That is 24 points in two games for a team with the fourth-hardest schedule in the country, and the hardest part starts in Athens.

Alabama holds at eighth. Texas Tech, BYU, USC, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Iowa and Utah each move up one as a consequence of the moves above.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 3 AP poll keeps Texas first, moves Ole Miss to fourth, drops Texas A&M out and brings Florida in at 19th. ESPN’s FPI, updated September 20th, has Ohio State and Texas tied at the top with identical ratings, Texas A&M 12th and Ole Miss 13th. We sit between the projected poll and the model on both, with Ole Miss sixth and A&M 20th. Oregon lands in the same place: 21st in the projected poll, ninth in FPI, 14th here.

Texas stays first on its defense, which held UTSA to 143 yards. Arch Manning was 16 of 32, and Colin Simmons left in a walking boot that Steve Sarkisian called precautionary. You could make the argument for Ole Miss at No. 1 on résumé, and CBS’s overreactions column did exactly that. ESPN’s committee projection has the Rebels second. It also leaves Texas Tech out of the bracket for a second straight week, with BYU as the projected Big 12 champion, and ESPN’s buy-sell column is selling the Red Raiders outright.

The Playoff Field

Ole Miss gains fourteen points on the week and Texas A&M loses twenty-four. Oregon comes down six more before its trip to the Coliseum, and a November trip to Columbus is still ahead. USC drops eight after allowing 460 yards to a winless Rutgers team, with Penn State and Indiana still to come on the road. Texas moves to 78 on the best win in the sport, and FPI gives the Longhorns the highest playoff probability in the country. Penn State, Tennessee and Utah rise on three comfortable wins apiece. Texas Tech gives back six. It has no ranked opponent left on its schedule, which means no chance to impress anyone before the Big 12 title game. Alabama gains four. The field grows to 1.34, with Louisville, Mississippi State, Pitt and Oklahoma all sitting just outside the twenty.

Notre Dame and Miami are three points apart in our table, and FPI orders them the same way, 80.8 percent to 77.6. ESPN’s committee projection has Miami ahead, fifth to sixth. The Irish have Purdue, North Carolina and Stanford next. They meet Miami in South Bend on November 7th.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 55 (up 4), Louisville 16 (up 4), SMU 8 (down 5), Pitt 6 (up 3), Virginia Tech 6 (up 1), Virginia 4 (down 3), Clemson 3 (down 3), field 2 (down 1). Louisville now owns the head-to-head with SMU, has no ranked team left on its schedule, and does not play Miami in the regular season. SMU drops five after running for 257 yards and still losing the turnover battle 3-0. Virginia does not play a league game until October 3rd at Florida State.

SEC. Texas 24 (up 3), Georgia 24, Alabama 14 (up 1), Ole Miss 14 (up 6), LSU 9 (down 5), Texas A&M 4 (down 8), Florida 4 (new), Oklahoma 3 (down 1), field 4. Texas draws level with Georgia, and FPI has the Longhorns slightly ahead. Ole Miss holds the tiebreaker over LSU and still has to go to Austin. LSU loses five on the tiebreaker and on Green’s knee. A&M loses eight, with Baton Rouge and Tuscaloosa still ahead and Texas at the end.

Big Ten. Ohio State 33 (up 1), Indiana 27, Oregon 13 (down 2), USC 10 (down 2), Penn State 7 (up 3), Michigan 6 (down 1), field 4 (up 1). Twenty-three points of this table meet at the Coliseum on Saturday night.

Big 12. Texas Tech 32 (down 4), BYU 27 (up 1), Utah 17 (up 4), Kansas State 6 (up 1), Houston 5 (down 3), West Virginia 4 (new), Arizona 3 (down 1), Oklahoma State 3, TCU 2 (down 1), field 1 (down 1). Tech won, but for the second straight week it allowed more yards than in any game last season. Tech misses both BYU and Utah in the regular season, which was always the argument for this number and still is. BYU is 11-2 on the road since 2024. Utah is 14-2 since Devon Dampier arrived and has outscored three opponents 142-24. Houston falls to five; the Cougars’ close-game luck finally ran the other way.

Pac-12. Boise State 46 (up 2), Fresno State 14 (up 3), San Diego State 11 (down 3), Texas State 10 (down 2), Oregon State 7 (up 3), Washington State 6 (down 2), Colorado State 3 (up 1), Utah State 3 (down 2). Boise needed the fourth quarter to beat an FCS team, and the Broncos still gain, because San Diego State lost at home to James Madison.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a third week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12.

1. The SEC. FPI has eleven SEC teams among its top 24, and the middle of the league got stronger on Saturday. Kentucky won at Kyle Field. Florida won at Auburn. Mississippi State trailed South Carolina 13-0 after one quarter, then went on a 41-10 run to win 41-34. Kamario Taylor threw four touchdowns, and the Bulldogs are 3-0 with Missouri and Alabama coming to Starkville next. Vanderbilt and Missouri are unbeaten too. Saturday is the fullest SEC day of the season so far: Texas at Tennessee, Ole Miss at Florida, Oklahoma at Georgia, Texas A&M at LSU and Missouri at Mississippi State.

2. The Big Ten stays second on its top two. FPI still rates Ohio State first in the country at 2-1, and Jeremiah Smith, three games into his junior year, is already the program’s career receiving leader. Indiana has two straight shutouts and has not played anyone. USC is 4-0 and fumbled a snap in the victory formation at Rutgers. Michigan trailed a UTEP team that had lost 51-0 to Oklahoma before waking up. Northwestern beat Colorado 41-7. League play starts in earnest this weekend.

3. The Big 12 keeps third on the head-to-head, and that is now the whole argument. West Virginia beat a ranked Virginia team in Charlotte. Houston came within a two-point try in Lubbock. BYU and Utah look like the class of the league. Below that it was a rough weekend. Colorado, which beat Georgia Tech in the opener, lost 41-7 at Northwestern. Kansas lost to Arizona State in London. Cincinnati needed a 28-point second half to beat Miami of Ohio. FPI has three Big 12 teams and three ACC teams in its top 25, and the best ACC team sits nine spots above the best Big 12 team.

4. The ACC has the best team of the two. Miami showed on Friday that its defense can win a game when the offense stalls. Louisville is clearly second. Keyjuan Brown is explosive, the offense has not turned it over, and the defense, which ranks in the triple digits nationally after allowing 41 to Ole Miss and 31 to SMU, is the one thing between the Cardinals and a date with Miami in the ACC title game. Behind them it thins fast. Virginia lost, NC State lost in the worst possible way, Clemson needed a comeback against North Carolina, and Florida State is 1-2.

5. The Pac-12 had the weekend the Group of Six has been having all year. San Diego State lost at home to James Madison. Colorado State lost to BYU, its 28th straight loss to a ranked team. Utah State was shut out by Utah. Boise State was tied 24-24 with an FCS team with ten minutes left before Dylan Riley broke an 83-yard touchdown run to finish a 198-yard night. The Broncos are still the league’s best team by a distance, and ESPN’s committee projection still gives them the Group of Six bid. They go to Western Michigan on Saturday.

The Week 4 Board

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 3 AP poll. Networks for Wake Forest at Louisville and the two 3:30 SEC games had not been announced at press time. Two games have the model and the market naming different favorites: Oregon at USC and Oklahoma State at West Virginia.

Predictions

Texas 24, Tennessee 20. The Texas defense held UTSA to 143 yards and has not let anyone find a rhythm since halftime against Ohio State. The offense is the question it was in August. Texas backs scored six rushing touchdowns all of last season, and on Saturday Manning ran nine times, none of them designed runs. Tennessee hired Jim Knowles to fix its defense, and this is the first ranked opponent it has seen. Simmons’s boot is worth watching all week. Texas wins, Tennessee covers. Under.

Louisville 31, Wake Forest 21. Louisville’s backs are the most explosive in the ACC. Isaac Brown led the nation at 8.75 yards per carry last season, and Keyjuan Brown just went for 163 on ten carries. Louisville has not turned it over all year. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed 72 points in two real games, though, and Wake Forest has won 11 of its last 16 under Jake Dickert. Gio Lopez threw for 312 against Miami. Seven of Louisville’s eight losses over the previous two seasons came by one score, and this program does not do comfortable. Louisville wins, Wake Forest covers. Under.

Florida 31, Ole Miss 28. Ole Miss comes off the most emotional game on its schedule and goes on the road to the Swamp. Lacy’s X-rays were negative, but he did not finish the LSU game. Florida has scored 54 a game and Baugh is the best back Ole Miss will see before Texas. Chambliss was second in FBS in passing grade under pressure last season and will get his points. The Rebels’ defense gave up 17 straight to LSU before finding its footing, and that is the part that worries us. Florida covers. Over.

Georgia 27, Oklahoma 10. This was Oklahoma’s circle game in August. It no longer looks like a coin flip. Oklahoma has 24 points in its last two games. Georgia ran on 36 of its first 42 plays at Arkansas, and Gunner Stockton is throwing about 15 times a game. That is the old Georgia problem, 126th nationally last season in share of passing yards thrown ten or more yards downfield. It will be enough here. Oklahoma led the nation with 63 tackles for loss last year and will keep it from getting silly. Georgia covers. Under.

Michigan 20, Iowa 16. The lowest total we have printed all season, and it has earned it. Iowa lost four games last season by fifteen points combined and still has the best offensive line on the field. Michigan has the better front seven and held Oklahoma to ten in this building two weeks ago. It also trailed UTEP in the second quarter. Bryce Underwood isn’t a finished product, but he’s the most dangerous player on the field. Iowa does not lose by a lot. Michigan wins, Iowa covers. Under.

West Virginia 31, Oklahoma State 27. ESPN makes West Virginia a 59.7 percent favorite, and the market makes them a home underdog. We side with the model. This was our most contrarian preseason call: Drew Mestemaker led FBS with 4,379 passing yards at North Texas, and Caleb Hawkins had the best rushing grade in the country. Oklahoma State has since lost to Tulsa and beaten Oregon, and nobody knows which one is real. Michael Hawkins is the best player in this game, and Morgantown at night is a hard place to find out. The upset. Over.

LSU 27, Texas A&M 20. The loser is 2-2 and out of margin. A&M has averaged 7.5 regular-season wins since joining the SEC, and last season’s eleven look more like the exception every week. LSU may be without Green, and Leavitt has to stop giving the ball away. Tiger Stadium at night is enough for LSU to win it. Not by nine. ESPN has LSU at 63.2 percent, well short of what an 8.5-point line implies, and we agree with the discount. LSU wins, A&M covers. Under.

Oregon 34, USC 31. Last year USC allowed the fewest air yards per attempt in FBS. This year it has allowed 30 or more in three of four games and gave up 168 rushing yards to Rutgers. Oregon brings the defensive line we ranked first in the country in August. Lanning is 5-7 against top-15 teams, and four of those five wins came by a touchdown or less. This is the game the preview said would put Oregon’s path to a top seed in its own hands. Dante Moore turned down the NFL to play games like this one. Oregon wins outright. Over.

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Contender or Pretender?

It’s hard to argue the most disappointing team so far has been Oregon. After needing another 4th Quarter comeback to sneak past pesky, underrated Boise State again in Week 1, the Ducks hit the road to take on Oklahoma State. Oregon defeated the Cowboys 69-3 last season, and OSU began this season with an ugly 24-10 loss at Tulsa. This should have been a tuneup for Oregon, even on the road. Instead they face-planted in a 39-31 loss. The Ducks’ offensive line, which I had questions about headed into the season, struggled all day to open holes for the running game (just 90 yards on 3.0 ypc) and protect QB Dante Moore. Shocking, though, was how bad the defense played. They allowed 554 total yards, 237 on the ground at nearly 6 yards per rush.

In the 12-team playoff era, no Power 4 team is out with one loss, especially an early-season, non-conference loss. But Oregon has really put themselves in a hole. Unless Oklahoma State’s Week 1 loss was an aberration and they go on to wreak havoc in the Big 12, this loss will look very bad on Oregon’s resume. Such that 9-3 seems very unlikely to get them in the playoff. With remaining games at USC, at Ohio State, and against Michigan (more on them in a bit), Dan Lanning had better get his defense right or this season will fall far short of expectations.

Will the Real Wolverines Please Stand Up?

Maybe Michigan was looking ahead to their big Week 2 tilt with Oklahoma visiting the Big House when they sleep-walked through 60 minutes (or, I guess, 59 minutes and 59 seconds) in a controversial Week 1 win over Western Michigan (a.k.a. The Bail Mary). Despite his last-second heroics, QB Bryce Underwood struggled against WMU to the point head coach Kyle Whittingham was noncommittal on his status as the starter.

But Underwood did start what was billed as a matchup of marquee QBs with his Sooner counterpart, John Mateer. And while Underwood shined at times, particularly on a 38-yard touchdown run, his passing numbers were pedestrian in what was largely a defensive slugfest. Unlike Mateer, who threw a costly interception deep in his own territory that set up Michigan’s other touchdown, Underwood was turnover-free, and that made the difference.

As big a win as this was for the Wolverines, it’s hard to see a playoff contender with their current offense. While this loss shouldn’t reflect too poorly on Oklahoma’s resume, they continue to have offensive issues of their own. In what looks like a brutally tough SEC, they have to be viewed as a fringe playoff contender right now.

A G6 Leader Emerges

While Boise State’s marquee matchup of the season may have been Week 1 in Eugene, Saturday’s 38-20 home victory against Memphis will likely be far more consequential. After Memphis dispatched of UNLV in Week 1, the Tigers went back West to face the Broncos, and jumped out to a 17-3 lead early in the 2nd Qtr thanks to several big plays. But it was downhill after that, as the Broncos outscored the visitors 35-3 the rest of the way. Not only does this establish Boise State as the G6 team to beat, but it gives an opening to other Pac-12 hopefuls that they could have a leg-up on the American conference champion if they can win their own conference.

Showdown in the Lone Star State

Easily the game of the season thus far was then-#1 Ohio State visiting Austin against then-#4 Texas. The Buckeyes dominated for nearly three quarters and led 23-3, and frankly it should have been (and ultimately needed to be) a bigger lead than that. The Longhorns made a lot of early mistakes, but cleaned it up and stormed back with touchdowns on each of their last three possessions to pull ahead 24-23 with 25 seconds remaining, completing one of the biggest wins for Texas in many years.

The Buckeye’s offense went stagnant in the 4th — their possessions were a 3-and-out, a 7-play drive that resulted in a missed field goal attempt, and a game-ending interception. Their defense couldn’t get off the field when it mattered most — Texas ran a total of 40 plays on their three TD drives.

Last year ‘Horns coach Steve Sarkisian was quick to claim Texas was punished by the CFP selection committee for losing a close game (14-7) in Columbus last season and missing the playoff as a 9-3 team. Consistent to his word, he stated Monday that Ohio State should not suffer the same fate if they end up going 9-3, or else more and more big name teams will stop scheduling these marquee non-conference games. We’ll see how it plays out for OSU, but Sarkisian makes a fair point. Either way this is a great resume-building win for the Longhorns who face a rough schedule in SEC play.

Top 10

1. Georgia — The Bulldogs have yet to be tested by a strong opponent, and won’t be until Oklahoma visits Athens in Week 4. But they haven’t lacked for style points

2. Texas — Some sloppy play in the first three quarters of the OSU game keeps them just behind the Bulldogs for now.

3. Notre Dame — Another team whose style points will have to do the talking. Their schedule is pretty soft until an October 17 trip to BYU.

4. Ohio State — The Buckeyes had an enormous road win in their grasp, and couldn’t close.

5. Indiana — Feels like the Hoosiers are just on cruise control until their Oct 17 trip to Columbus. 

6. Texas A&M — A very convincing win over Arizona State has the Aggies in strong position as the SEC schedule begins.

7. Miami — The Hurricanes are averaging 61 points per game so far. They need to avoid a letdown before their Nov trip to South Bend, something they’ve struggled with in the past.

8. LSU — Death Valley may still have crime scene tape marking off the field after what they did to Clemson in Week 1. Their trip to Ole Miss this week should be appointment viewing.

9.  Ole Miss — See above.

10. Oklahoma — The offense remains a big concern for the Sooners, even with a healthy John Mateer.

No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech — Friday 8:00pm ET, FOX

Line: Texas Tech -7.5, O/U

We have a benefit in evaluating this one because these two teams already share a common opponent: Oregon State. Both games were more competitive than expected, with OSU covering by double-digits in each, which might simply say more about the Beavers than either the Cougars or Red Raiders.

After a tumultuous offseason for Tech regarding the QB position, the Red Raiders ended up staying in-house with third-year player Will Hammond. Hammond’s results were somewhat underwhelming against both Oregon State and Abilene Christian considering the competition. The Cougars roll with the much more experienced Connor Weigman, who also had mixed results against OSU and a brief Week 2 in a blowout win over Southern. Still, I give a slight edge to Weigman, even headed into a hostile road environment.

I think this game will come down to the defenses. While Tech is more talented on paper, especially up front, Oregon State gouged them in the passing game pretty good — to the tune of 417 yards and 8.0 yards per attempt. Also Houston’s offensive line seemed to get a lot more push against the Beavers than Tech did.

I think I smell an upset here.

Houston win/cover

No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville — 3:30pm ET, ESPN

Line: Louisville -1.5, O/U 59.5

It’s the second of three ranked matchups in Week 3, and it feels like a pivotal early matchup in the ACC. My concerns over the inexperience of Cardinals QB Lincoln Kienholz have largely been assuaged after a strong showing in a heartbreaking 41-38 loss to #8 Ole Miss in Memphis. But as the final score would indicate, I do have concerns over the state of Louisville’s defense — particularly the pass defense, which would seem ripe for Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashlee and QB Kevin Jennings to exploit. The Cards have also been pretty sloppy so far, averaging 86 penalty yards per game.

I think another road team pulls an upset.

SMU win/cover

No. 7 LSU vs. No. 8 Ole Miss — 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: LSU -3, O/U 59.5

Is it too much to ask for just one week free of any Lane Kiffin-connected drama? I was all set to publish this article 24 hours ago when suddenly the news dropped — LSU QB Sam Leavitt was listed on the Wednesday injury report as doubtful. Per SEC rules, that would indicate a less than 25% chance of being available to play. At no time during LSU’s Week 2 game against Louisiana did Leavitt appear to suffer any injury, nor did Kiffin say anything about his health prior to the release of the injury report. Is this just gamesmanship in attempt to tweak Kiffin’s former employer, towards whom he no doubt still feels aggrieved for not allowing him to coach Ole Miss in the CFP after he announced he’d be leaving for LSU? If so, he better hope no one at SEC HQ finds out, as that would no doubt be a violation that could lead to significant punishment from a conference that is already pretty fed up with his schtick.

Anyway, I am going to take this information at face value and assume Leavitt likely will not play. He’s been shaky at times so far this season, and has 4 INTs to just 2 passing TDs (he’s rushed for 5 TDs though). With him out, the Tigers will be relying on either Elon transfer Layden Clark or USC transfer Husan Longstreet, who has attempted 16 passes in his college career thus far. Considering how hostile and emotionally charged the environment in Oxford will be Saturday night, that does not sound like a winning formula.

Ole Miss win/cover

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Quick Hits

Our Week 2 picks went 5-3 straight up, 3-5 against the number and 6-2 on totals. Alabama was the only clean sweep of the week, and it was the one we flagged as the pick that hurts. Texas hit the under by half a point on a game that needed a 21-point fourth quarter to get there.

The three straight-up misses shared a shape. Each was a game where our number sat above the market on a favorite, and two of those favorites lost outright. Two weeks in we are 6-6 straight up and 5-6-1 against the number.

Oregon was a L for us, and everyone else. We had the Ducks fourth in the power rankings and gave them a 71 percent chance of reaching the playoff, the fifth-highest figure overall. The stated reason for both was coordinator continuity – two elite units handed to two first-year play-callers, which the preview called the most interesting continuity test of 2026. Oregon then lost outright in Stillwater as a 22.5-point favorite, a week after needing a comeback to beat Boise State at home by seven. Oklahoma State had lost 21 straight to FBS opponents. Dan Lanning had not lost to an unranked team since 2021.

Oklahoma State; Who Are You? The Cowboys were the fifth of our five teams-we-like-better than most to start the year, and then they lost to Tulsa in their opener. And now they follow that-up with a win vs. Oregon.  Somewhere between those extremes lies what Oklahoma State actually is.

Michigan Moves Back Up.  This shouldn’t have been the surprise it was. After the Western Michigan game, we should have expected the Wolverines to be motivated to show something vs. the Sooners. Beating Oklahoma is a nice win for Michigan, that should help their resume all year.

We faded Minnesota in the preview and then picked them anyway. The preseason case was the plus-24 points-off-turnovers margin and a scoring profile closer to a four-win team than an eight-win one. Minnesota lost 38-13 at home to Mississippi State. The read was right and the pick, labeled a hunch, ignored it. That is the worst thing we did last week and it was entirely self-inflicted.

Alabama is pushing us toward Phil Steele. We had the Tide 15th nationally against his 7th, and wrote that if Keelon Russell hit, Steele is right and we look silly by October. Alabama trailed Kentucky 17-13 at the half and outscored them 32-0 after it. Russell’s athleticism jumps off the screen. Now in Year 3 of his tenure at Alabama, Kalen DeBoer’s squad is pointing up.

Power Rankings

Texas moves up five to first. The Longhorns own the only win over a top-five team in the country, and they got it from 20 points down with 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter. A one-point home win does not by itself establish who is better on a neutral field. But we picked Texas against our own No. 1 last week, and the point of being right is acting on it.

Ohio State drops one.  You could make the argument of dropping OSU behind Notre Dame.  Surrendering a 20 point lead leaves a bad taste. Still, it’s a 1 point loss to a Top 5 team on the road. Ohio State has eight new defensive starters this year. Lots of talk entering the year about how OSU needs to grow during the season. We will see what they take from this experience.

Oregon drops eleven, the largest move we have made. Two first-year coordinators inherited the SP+ No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense, and two games in the Ducks have a seven-point home win over an unranked team and a loss to a team that had not beaten an FBS opponent in 21 tries. Portland State on Friday will tell us nothing.  After that is is a trip to USC which will be highly significant for both programs.

Alabama moves up seven. Forty-five points on the road in an SEC opener. The preview’s case against Alabama was the running game and a profile that went 8-4 against FPI top-40 teams while outscoring them by two points total. Neither Kentucky nor Louisiana-Monroe tests that. But the defense is real and the schedule misses Texas and Ole Miss, which was always Steele’s argument.

Michigan up six and Oklahoma down six, from the same sixty minutes. Michigan’s win was built on the thing Kyle Whittingham was hired to build, holding a top-15 offense to ten points. Bryce Underwood isn’t a finished product, but he’s electric and competitive. The Wolverines were 20th on a defensive argument and the defense showed up. Oklahoma has the fourth-hardest schedule in America and just scored ten points on the easiest ranked opponent it will see for a month. Brent Venables has alternated six-win and ten-win regular seasons for four straight years.

Texas Tech drops two. Winning at Oregon State by eleven, a week after a pedestrian result against Abilene Christian, is not what the best yards-per-play defense of the playoff era looked like. Tommy Castellanos has been added to the QB room with Will Hammond. Important Big 12 game with Houston this Friday.

BYU moves up two. Provo against Arizona was one of the three toss-ups we said would decide their season, and the Cougars erased a halftime deficit to win it. They do not play Texas Tech or Houston.

Utah enters at 20 and Washington leaves. We had Utah outside our top 20 entirely. They beat up Arkansas 43-7 and join the ranking. Washington needed 16-10 against a Utah State team that lost to FCS Idaho State the week before.

Notre Dame, Indiana, Miami, LSU, Texas A&M and Ole Miss each shift a spot as a consequence of the moves above rather than on their own merits.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 2 poll has Texas first, which matches us, and Oregon 21st, which does not. We have the Ducks six spots higher. ESPN’s selection-committee projection leaves Oregon out of the twelve entirely. That was a costly loss for the Ducks yesterday, and puts them in a precarious position going forward.

The sharper disagreement is Texas Tech. We have them eleventh and as the Big 12 favorite. ESPN projects BYU as the league’s champion and leaves Texas Tech out of the bracket.

The Playoff Field

The twenty named teams, the Group of Six bid and the field still sum to twelve. Boise State’s bid strengthens on the head-to-head win over Memphis.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 51 (up 2), SMU 13 (down 1), Louisville 12 (down 1), Virginia 7 (new), Clemson 6 (down 1), Virginia Tech 5 (down 1), Pitt 3 (down 1), field 3. Virginia enters the table for the first time at 2-0 and ranked, Miami gains because nobody behind them did anything, not because 77 points against Florida A&M told us anything.

SEC. Georgia 24 (down 1), Texas 21 (up 4), LSU 14, Alabama 13 (up 4), Texas A&M 12, Ole Miss 8, Oklahoma 4 (down 4), field 4. Texas closes on Georgia without passing them.

Big Ten. Ohio State 32 (up 1), Indiana 27 (up 4), Oregon 15 (down 9), USC 12 (up 3), Michigan 7 (up 4), Penn State 4, field 3.

Big 12. Texas Tech 36 (down 6), BYU 26 (up 4), Utah 13 (up 4), Houston 8 (new), Kansas State 5 (down 2), Arizona 4 (down 4), TCU 3 (down 1), Oklahoma State 3 (new), field 2. This is the league where our numbers moved most and where we are least comfortable.

Pac-12. Boise State 44 (up 6), San Diego State 14 (down 1), Texas State 12 (down 1), Fresno State 11 (down 3), Washington State 8 (down 2), Utah State 5 (down 1), Oregon State 4 (up 1), Colorado State 2 (up 1).  SP+ places Fresno outside the top 90, so they drop here, with Boise the beneficiary.

Conference Overviews

Two weeks in, we rank the Conferences as the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. Again, the SP+ figures below come from its September 8th run and do not include Saturday.

1. The SEC. SP+ put eleven of its top 25 in the league and six of its top eleven, and then Texas went out and beat the No. 1 team in the country, which is the best win anybody owns. Behind that sits a middle class — Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Auburn — that most conferences would run as a top tier. What the league still does not have is a consensus best team, which is what we wrote in August and what this weekend will not settle either. LSU at Ole Miss is Lane Kiffin walking back into Oxford eight months after leaving, on the first road trip of his LSU tenure. Florida at Auburn puts two teams we were higher on than the market against each other, which guarantees one read gets graded and the other gets nothing.
2. The Big Ten, which keeps the spot on Ohio State and Indiana rather than on anything that happened Saturday. Oregon, Ohio State, Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue and Rutgers all lost, four of them to the ACC or SEC, and that is the worst day any league had. The preview’s argument was that the Big Ten had the three best teams in America and seven of the worst. Oregon’s loss only makes you less confident in the overall strength at the top of the conference .The two teams that came out looking better were Michigan, and Indiana, which has not played anybody. A conference with three straight national titles is going to spend September being told its top is thinner than advertised.
3. The Big 12 is the league that changed most and the one we understand least. Five teams in the SP+ top 25, a 43-7 win over Arkansas, and the loudest single result of the weekend in Stillwater. The trouble is that the loudest result came from a team we would have placed fourteenth in this league in August, and the team we placed first has now looked ordinary twice. Texas Tech was pedestrian against Abilene Christian and got all it could handle at Oregon State. This is a deep conference without an apex.
4. The ACC. The league had the best week relative to expectation of anyone: Duke beat Illinois, Wake Forest beat Purdue in double overtime, Boston College beat Rutgers, Pitt handled UCF. Against that, SP+ had exactly two ACC teams in its top 25. On best team the ACC wins easily, with Miami fifth in SP+ and the best Big 12 team fourteenth. On depth the Big 12 wins and not by a little. We went with depth because the Big 12 also owns the better head-to-head result.
5. The Pac-12 is the best of the rest. Boise State beat an unbeaten Memphis team at home after trailing by fourteen, which is the most valuable non-power result of the young season. If those two emerge as their conference champions, the head-to-head should largely settle the Group of Six bid in December. The Broncos have both of their hardest non-conference games behind them.

The Week 3 Board

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages ESPN Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 2 poll. No total had posted for Houston at Texas Tech and no line at all for James Madison at San Diego State as of press time; neither gets a call it cannot support.

One venue note, West Virginia at Virginia is not in Charlottesville. It is at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, with Virginia as the designated home team.

Predictions

Pittsburgh 24, Syracuse 14. Pitt has averaged more sacks per game than anyone but Clemson since 2015 and Syracuse has not solved that particular problem in some time. We are shaving this one — ten points is a win, not a cover at 10.5. Under.

Texas Tech 31, Houston 20. The game we said in August would move this number, and it arrives with Houston 2-0 and ranked 22nd. Our case against the Cougars was never about talent. It was 6-1 in one-possession games, 4-1 in games decided by three or less, the easiest schedule in the league and the largest positive penalty margin in the country. None of that has been tested yet and Lubbock on a Friday night is where it gets tested. We hold Houston outside the top six and take the Red Raiders to cover. No total posted, so no call.

Alabama 38, Florida State 17. Two weeks of second halves that look like a top-ten team and first halves that do not. Florida State has had eleven days to prepare and has a coach who needs a result. We still think Alabama covers, and we think the number of points involved is why Steele has been winning this argument. Over.

Louisville 34, SMU 30. Lincoln Kienholz threw for 332 and four scores against Villanova, which told us nothing, and Kevin Jennings threw for 337 and five against UC Davis, which told us the same. This is the first real Saturday for both. Isaac Brown led the country at 8.75 yards per carry and Clev Lubin is the best returning edge in FBS, and at home that is enough by a possession. SMU has played seventeen ACC games and had a chance to win on the final play of every one of them, which is the reason we cannot take them by more than we are giving. Over.

Auburn 24, Florida 21. The one game on this board where the model and the market name different favorites. ESPN has Auburn at 50.2 percent, DraftKings has Florida laying 2.5. We were the ones who put Auburn first among teams we liked better than the projections, on the strength of 0-6 in one-possession games and a coin that does not land on its edge six times running. Alex Golesh, Byrum Brown and a defense returning most of its production, at home, at night. We take the upset. Under.

LSU 30, Ole Miss 24. Kiffin is 12-2 in his last fourteen SEC games and scored 21-plus in thirteen of them. He is also now walking into Vaught-Hemingway against the quarterback he recruited, on the only road trip LSU takes until October 10th. Sam Leavitt threw three interceptions against Louisiana Tech including a hundred-yard pick-six, and if he does that here it is over early. The reason we take LSU anyway is the defense, which SP+ rated second in the country and which held Clemson to ten. Under.

Virginia 31, West Virginia 17. We faded Virginia in August on the one-score argument and they have answered with two comfortable wins. This is the week to say plainly that the fade is not looking good. Neutral site in Charlotte, which historically favors the ACC team in this particular building. Under.

San Diego State 24, James Madison 21. No line posted, so no call against the number and none on the total. San Diego State’s secondary allowed eight completions on 52 attempts of twenty-plus yards last season, the best rate in FBS. Billy Napier’s first James Madison team put up 87 points yesterday vs. Wagner. How they handle flying across the country, and facing a step-up in competition will be interesting to watch.

The post 2026 College Football: Reviewing Week 2, Previewing Week 3 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

A word on method before anything else, because this is the week the sport overreacts.

Our August work is the starting point and it stays put until something argues it down. The burden sits with the change, not with the position. We are not reshuffling on wins and losses. We are looking for two things.

Significant injuries. And performance that diverged meaningfully from what the game was priced at.

A team that was supposed to win by four touchdowns and won by one has told us something. A team that beat an FCS opponent by fifty has not. Every change below carries a reason. Where there is no reason, there is no change.

Quick Hits

Michigan was our worst read, and the Hail Mary is the least of it. We had the Wolverines 16th on three things: the trenches, Kyle Whittingham, and Jason Beck repairing 23 interceptions in two years. All three were tested against Western Michigan and all three failed. The offensive line, which lost only two starters from a solid unit, badly lost its battle against a rebuilt Broncos front. The defensive front, supposedly a strength on paper, generated one tackle for loss and surrendered a 20-play drive that consumed 13:40. Underwood started 5-of-5 for 61 yards. Between that and the winning play he was 6-of-16 for 62 yards with an interception, locking onto receivers and forcing throws into impossible windows. Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter combined for 59 yards on 16 carries. Western Michigan was, by preseason SP+, the second-worst team Michigan will play all year, and Michigan was outplayed for essentially the full sixty minutes.

Cal was our ACC dark horse and did not close. They lost 45-24 at home to UCLA. Total yardage was comparable and the game turned on three Cal turnovers. What does not overstate it is the fourth quarter. Cal was outscored 21-0 at home in the final quarter. Sagapolutele threw two interceptions to Ta’Shawn James in that quarter. Wayne Knight scored on a 31-yard run one play after the first and a 4-yard run after the second. Anthony Woods finished it from 53. We should also admit the pick was more aggressive than we let on: FTN’s model had Cal 68th in the country entering the season. That was not a mild contrarian position and we did not frame it as the reach it was.

Oklahoma State lost at Tulsa. The Cowboys were our fifth and most contrarian “like better” call. The two programs have met 43 times since 1953, and Oklahoma State had never lost to Tulsa in consecutive meetings until Saturday. The last time Tulsa won back-to-back was 1951-52, when the opponent was still called Oklahoma A&M. The failure was specific: Eric Morris brought two starting linemen with him from North Texas and evidently needed more. Drew Mestemaker’s 29 completions gained 241 yards with two interceptions and a lost fumble, and Caleb Hawkins, a 1,400-yard rusher in Denton, managed 79 yards on 18 carries. FTN had Oklahoma State 63rd preseason. We were the outlier.

Georgia Tech was the first live test and we passed it for the wrong reason. We put the Yellow Jackets outside the ACC’s top six and named Thursday as the first check. Colorado won 14-13 on a Julian Lewis touchdown pass with 42 seconds left, then blocked a 45-yard field goal as time expired. The ranking looks right. The reasoning does not. Our case was 24% of offensive snaps returning and a quarterback who had never started. Alberto Mendoza went 17-of-23 for 237 in his debut. Georgia Tech lost because it ran for 51 yards on 30 carries and fumbled three times in the first half.

There is a second problem with claiming this one. We treated Colorado as a middling Big 12 opponent. Deion Sanders’ transfer class looked interesting. Gideon Lampron, Liona Lefau and Randon Fontenette combined for 22 tackles, and a rebuilt front held Justice Haynes and Malachi Hosley to 3.1 yards per carry. Georgia Tech expected that game. Losing it reframes the night from “we were right” to “we do not yet know what that loss was worth,” and Colorado hosts Weber State on Saturday, so will be awhile before we learn more about the Buffaloes.

Georgia Tech still has Tennessee in Atlanta this week, and Georgia to end the year in their remaining out-of-conference slate.

Might have had Virginia wrong. We conceded after Week 0 that our lower-than-consensus call looks off. Nothing has improved it. Bill Connelly at ESPN described the Cavaliers as playing like grown men against NC State and establishing a physicality much of the ACC will struggle to match.

The model-versus-market flags finished 1-3. We named four games where ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor disagreed with the market. Georgia Tech was the largest gap on any favorite, ESPN at 58.5% against a spread implying roughly 69%, and Georgia Tech lost. The model was right to shave. LSU was the reverse: ESPN had the Tigers at 75.3% against a number implying about 80%, and LSU won by 41. Washington was the same story, ESPN at 87.9% against a line that moved from 21.5 to 23.5 during the week, and the Huskies won by 14 without covering. SMU, the widest gap on the board at 51.5% against a market implying the high 50s, won by exactly three as a three-point favorite. Straight up, the model finished 1-3. Against the number it finished 2-1 with a push.

What went right: Boise State. The task, as we defined it, was not to win at Autzen but to avoid handing the committee a data point. The Broncos were tied 27-27 in the fourth quarter, won the fourth-down battle 2-of-3 against Oregon’s 0-for-3, and lost 34-27 as three-and-a-half-touchdown underdogs. This was Boise’s second trip to Eugene in three seasons and the second one-score result; the 2024 visit ended 37-34 on a field goal as time expired, and that competitive loss was a meaningful part of why the Broncos made the playoff as the No. 3 seed. ESPN’s own playoff projection now notes the same precedent and slots Boise State into the bracket as the Group of Six representative.

And Louisville. We liked Louisville more than most in our preview. We expected a quality game vs. Ole Miss. Ole Miss won 41-38 on a 48-yard field goal at the buzzer. Lincoln Kienholz, making his first career start after three seasons on Ohio State’s bench, threw for 307 with two touchdowns and no interceptions and ran for a team-best 69 yards. Louisville turned it over zero times, erased a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit and lost to a walk-off.  One thing to note is that Isaac Brown was held to 36 yards on 16 carries after leading the nation at 8.8 per carry last season. Louisville scored 38 on a top-ten SEC defense without him doing anything.

And Auburn.  Auburn was another team we had above consensus, and they got a win in a 1 score game after going 0-6 in them last year. Byrum Brown threw three interceptions and no touchdowns and Auburn won anyway, surviving DJ Lagway’s fourth-and-10 conversion and fourth-and-goal touchdown before a failed two-point pass ended it.

Three Corrections

We got three venues wrong in our Season and Week 1 Previews.

NC State and Virginia played at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. The season preview said São Paulo, but the game was moved.

Louisville and Ole Miss did not play in Oxford. The Week 1 preview called it a road game and asked what a Louisville win in Oxford would mean. It was a neutral-site game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, the inaugural Liberty Mutual Music City Kickoff, with Ole Miss as designated home team.

Wisconsin and Notre Dame did not play in South Bend. Our board listed it as a road game for Wisconsin. It was played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, part of a two-game neutral-site series.

Power Rankings

Five teams moved. Fourteen shifted only because someone above or below them moved, which is displacement. Miami cleared our threshold and we held them anyway, for reasons below.

Michigan, down four, and twenty may be generous. The largest deviation on the board: a 27.5-point favorite winning by one. The replay is worth explaining. NBC’s officiating analyst Terry McAulay said on air that his network’s clock was synced to the stadium clock, that the ball was nowhere near a player at zero, and that he could not see how the Big Ten arrived at one second. No additional angles aired during the review and the referee announced the change without explanation. The Big Ten released video and audio of its replay crew just before midnight, and that footage justified the decision. Either the stadium clock or the replay clock was out of sync, which is an inexcusable production failure either way.

None of which is the reason Michigan drops. Michigan drops because the specific things we ranked them on all failed in the same game. Oklahoma’s front led the nation with 63 tackles for loss and visits Saturday. If it exposes the same problems, Michigan leaves this list.

Oregon, down two. A 17.5-point deviation, and unlike Michigan’s it lands directly on something we published. We put Oregon second while calling the loss of both coordinators the single most interesting continuity test of 2026. Oregon outgained Boise State 497-274, got a career-high 378 from Dante Moore, and won by seven. Ten penalties for 90 yards, 4-of-12 on third down, 0-for-3 on fourth, no turnovers forced, and beaten on special teams. That is a finishing problem, and finishing is what coordinators do. Lanning said afterward there was a lot to fix.

LSU, up three. Plus 30.5 against the spread, the largest positive figure on the board, and against a Power Four opponent rather than an overmatched one. LSU rushed for 309 yards, gained 644 in total, and led 336-54 in yardage at halftime. Sam Leavitt completed a 20-yard pass to four different receivers. Jordan Ross and Princewill Umanmielen combined for four tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks, and Ross returned an interception for a score. Kiffin retained Blake Baker, which now looks like the shrewdest decision of his hire. Our August reservation about LSU was never the talent, it was the schedule split. One night does not bend a schedule that ranks 19th-toughest by SP+ and 11th by FPI. We feel considerably better about LSU than we did on Saturday morning, but the number doesn’t change significantly with that remaining schedule.

USC, up two. Plus 15.5 and a shutout. Maiava completed 92% for 349 and three scores, the best completion percentage at USC since 1995, and has five touchdowns against six incompletions in two games. Five of the top six pass-catchers were freshmen or sophomores. Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and Trent Mosley both cleared 100 yards, which no two USC freshmen had done since the school began keeping records in 1973. USC has not gone scoreless-against in back-to-back first halves since 2009 and scored two safeties, believed to be a program first. Gary Patterson’s unit is the story.

Miami, held at 7. Plus 14.5, which clears our threshold, and we are not moving them. Our published question about Miami was never the skill talent. It was whether a plus-30 sack differential travels after losing 14,601 career snaps off both lines. Mensah went 27-of-30 for 401 and five scores and Toney caught 12 for a school-record 234 and three touchdowns. Miami recorded two tackles for loss. And Stanford was missing three injured projected starting offensive linemen, plus receiver Nico Brown and edge rusher Gabe Kaminski. Miami’s backs also gained 76 yards on 22 carries through three quarters, which is its own small flag.

Injuries. Oklahoma played without two projected offensive line starters and still shut out UTEP while scoring on every possession through three quarters. That is a hold, not a drop, and it may matter in Ann Arbor. Notre Dame’s status on Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa remains unconfirmed; his recovery from a November ACL tear has run ahead of expectations, but clearance is not certain. USC’s three Week 0 absences remain unconfirmed. Ole Miss lost Kewan Lacy to a thigh injury that Pete Golding did not think was serious.

A note on method. FTN’s simulation model also moves teams on performance against expectation, and moves faster than we do. Readers who think we are slow have a visible benchmark. We think being slower in September is the point.

And a useful check. CBS published its projection of Tuesday’s AP poll after we had finished the table above, and framed the entire week’s movement as “the shifting nature of performance against expectations.” Our same thought process. The results line up more than they diverge: both have Ohio State first and Notre Dame second, both move LSU from 11th to exactly 8th, both drop Michigan from 16th to exactly 20th, and both land USC at 13th. Four of our five moves match a poll projection built from voter behavior rather than from a stated rule.

Three places we disagree. CBS drops Oregon five spots to 7th; we drop them two, because the coordinator question was already priced into our second-place ranking and a 223-yard yardage advantage is not the profile of a team in trouble. CBS raises Miami from 7th to 5th; we hold, because Stanford was missing three projected starting offensive linemen and Miami still managed two tackles for loss, so our published question went unasked rather than unanswered. And CBS drops Texas Tech two spots for the field goals against Abilene Christian; we hold at 9th, because our preseason work already named the quarterback as the weakness. That said, would have liked more vs. an FCS opponent, so maybe CBS has it right there.

One more line from that projection matters to us: Louisville is projected to fall out of the AP poll entirely after losing by three to No. 9 on a walk-off. We are keeping the Cardinals at 13% in the ACC.

The Playoff Field

These are our estimated probabilities of reaching the twelve-team field. Not rankings and not seeds. It is why Notre Dame carries the highest percentage (78%) chance of making the CFP,  while sitting second in the power rankings.

The Group of Six line does not move. It is roughly one full berth and it stays roughly one full berth no matter who claims it. What changed is who. Boise State went from 34% to 38% inside the Pac-12 and now appears in ESPN’s projected bracket as the Group of Six representative. The size of the slice is fixed; the name on it got clearer.

The Florida State Promise

We wrote in the Week 1 preview that Florida State appears nowhere in our published ACC title odds, and that if the Seminoles won at home on Labor Day night, the field number gets revisited in Week 2. Competitive game, but SMU got the win in Tallahassee.

The game came with a power outage of more than ninety minutes pushed kickoff to 9:15 p.m. Eastern, and Doak Campbell ran on partial power throughout. No replay review. No headset communication between coaches and players. No PA announcer, no sideline tablets, no working scoreboard. The clock came off the field.

Under those conditions Florida State was the better story and the worse team. Ashton Daniels threw for 125 yards on 12-of-23 and closed the night with a ball in the dirt and a throw into triple coverage. Samuel Singleton Jr. tied it at 24 on a 39-yard catch and run with 8:17 left. SMU’s Kevin Jennings was the best player on the field and still turned it over three times, including an interception in the end zone. Add Florida State’s 34-17 win over New Mexico State as a 30-point favorite, in which it led 17-10 late in the third, and the early September read is that the Seminoles are what most people thought they were. Not good enough. Norvell’s seat has to be getting warm.

SMU goes from 13% to 14% to win the ACC, after the road conference win.

Conference Projections

ACC: Miami 49%, SMU 14%, Louisville 13%, Clemson 7%, Virginia Tech 6%, Pitt 4%, field 7%. Preseason was Miami 46%, SMU 13%, Louisville 13%, Clemson 11%, Virginia Tech 6%, Pitt 4%, field 7%.

Clemson comes down four points. Not because of the margin itself, but because the margin discredited the specific thing the 11% was built on. We put Clemson third in the ACC on the arrival of Tom Allen and Chad Morris. Clemson produced its first first down at 10:19 of the first quarter and waited nearly thirty minutes for a second. It finished with 145 yards, its fewest since 2009, and allowed 644, its most since 2012. Vizzina’s 17 dropbacks gained 82 yards. Tait Reynolds’ nine attempts, including three sacks, netted four. Connelly called the Morris hire lazy and reductive, which is the direct rebuttal to the bet we published.

Miami takes three of those four points. This is a move about the field, not about Miami. We just declined to move them in the power rankings because they did not answer our question about the trenches. Winning the ACC is a different question, and it got easier when the most credible challenger collapsed. The last point goes to the field, where the Florida State promise gets settled Monday night.

The counterweight Miami should not enjoy. The ACC went 1-5 against the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC in Week 1, with a minus-80 point margin, the worst in league history, and recorded its most season-opening losses to current Power Four opponents ever. Miami’s path got easier and Miami’s résumé got worse in the same weekend. If the league does not improve, the November trip to Notre Dame becomes the only thing on the schedule the committee will weigh.

Two ACC numbers now look light. Pitt at 4% beat a decent Miami of Ohio team 59-14 with Mason Heintschel throwing for 453 yards and seven touchdowns, and could plausibly be 6-1 when it visits Miami in Week 8. Virginia Tech at 6% beat VMI 73-3 with genuine physicality in James Franklin’s debut, Jeffrey Overton Jr. and Marcellous Hawkins Jr. combining for 173 yards and five scores. Neither result proves much on its own. Both are worth watching before we defend those figures again.

Where the systems disagree, and why. Miami rises in the conference table and holds in the power rankings. These are not inconsistencies. The power ranking asks how good a team is. The conference number asks who wins a league. The playoff number asks who qualifies for a bracket. The same week can answer one and not the others.

SEC. Georgia 25%, Texas 17%, LSU 14% (from 11), Texas A&M 12%, Alabama 9%, Oklahoma 8%, Ole Miss 8% (from 10), field 7% (from 8). LSU is the biggest single move in the article, and it’s larger than the two-point playoff bump because the conference question and the schedule question are different. Ole Miss loses two for winning by three against a team we rank outside the top 20. The field loses one, mostly Missouri losing Hardy and Green.

Big Ten. Ohio State 31% (from 29), Oregon 24% (from 26), Indiana 23%, USC 9% (from 7), Penn State 4%, Michigan 3% (from 5), field 6%. Ohio State rises because two teams both gave ground in the same week, not because of Ball State. Penn State holds — we published a fade, and a shutout of Marshall doesn’t retire it.

Big 12. Texas Tech 42% (from 40), BYU 22%, Utah 9%, Arizona 8%, Kansas State 7%, TCU 4%, field 8% (from 10). Identical logic to Miami and Clemson in the ACC. Tech didn’t improve, Oklahoma State collapsed out of the field.

Pac-12. Boise State 38% (from 34), San Diego State 15%, Fresno State 14% (from 18), Texas State 13%, Washington State 10%, Utah State 6%, Oregon State 3%, Colorado State 1%. Our published preview had Fresno second at 18%, returning twelve starters, hosting Boise on October 10th in the game that decides the league. They then lost 39-0 to USC. Boise took the No. 2 team to the fourth quarter. The four point swing here might not be enough.

Conference Overviews

The ACC. The league we called bunched is bunching in the wrong direction, but the race may be better for it. Clemson lost by 41 and is effectively out of the conversation. Cal lost at home by 21. Georgia Tech lost to Colorado. Miami looked like a national title team on offense. Below that, Virginia, Louisville, Pitt and Virginia Tech all made real first impressions, and Duke, the defending champion, beat Tulane 17-3. SMU got the road win vs. FSU.

The SEC. LSU was the most impressive team in the country and it is not close. Kiffin’s return to Oxford on September 19th is one of the marquee events of the early season, and Ole Miss did its part by surviving Louisville. Alabama beat East Carolina 48-10 and ran for 227 yards, the specific number our lower-than-consensus call was built against. Keelon Russell went 18-of-30 for 256 with no interceptions and one sack, rushed for 23 on the game’s first third down, and moved the chains on seven of his twelve carries. Daniel Hill and freshman EJ Crowell combined for 84 on 16. We wrote that if Russell hits, Phil Steele is right and we look silly by October. FTN has Alabama eighth to our fifteenth. That two outlets on the other side of our call, and Kentucky is Saturday. Every SEC team won in Week 1.

The Big Ten. Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3 and held them under three yards per play, with Jeremiah Smith catching eight for 151 and 237 yards rushing as a team. Indiana beat North Texas 52-16 but was outgained on the ground 152-134 and currently sits 115th in non-garbage-time rushing success rate. Josh Hoover went 13-of-16 for 231 and four scores with no turnovers, which matters for a quarterback who lost the ball 42 times in 31 TCU starts. Penn State opened the Matt Campbell era 45-0 over Marshall with exactly one rush longer than ten yards. Rutgers lost at home to UMass, a program that was 0-32 against power-conference opponents before Thursday, and travels to Boston College on Friday.

The Big 12. Houston beat Oregon State 33-20 but did not cover. Texas Tech did not find a gear. Oklahoma State lost at Tulsa. BYU beat Utah Tech 63-7, and FTN has them 21st to our fourteenth. Arizona visits Provo on Saturday. Baylor lost by one and lost DJ Lagway to another injury, which is the live question in Waco.

The Pac-12. Boise State was the best thing that happened to the new league. ESPN now has the Broncos in its projected bracket and describes them as front-runners for the Group of Six berth if they keep playing like that. Memphis, which beat UNLV 27-21 in Week 0, visits Boise on Saturday. Washington State lost the Apple Cup 24-10 but held Washington’s backs to 3.3 yards per carry and missed two field goals in a one-score fourth quarter. Oregon State was competitive vs. Houston.

The Week 2 Board

Spreads and totals are DraftKings. Win probabilities are ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. All eight games are Saturday, September 12th.

The two marquee games carry the two lowest totals on the board. Everything else sits between 48.5 and 59.5. The market expects the best games this week to be grind it out games, and the Ohio State–Texas history supports it: three straight meetings, none of them shootouts, including 14-7 in Columbus last season.

Predictions

Oklahoma 24, Michigan 17. Oklahoma covers. Michigan’s problem is the one Western Michigan already exposed: protecting Bryce Underwood behind a line that lost its battle to a MAC front. Oklahoma led the nation with 63 tackles for loss and is missing two projected offensive line starters of its own, which is why this is seven and not fourteen. Under.

Texas A&M 38, Arizona State 17. Cover. The Aggies held Missouri State to 67 yards and four first downs, the fewest by an A&M opponent since 1978, and Marcel Reed completed nine of his final ten passes. Arizona State sits 40th in FTN’s model. Over.

Oregon 38, Oklahoma State 13. Cover. The harshest available view of our own miss. Oklahoma State scored 10 at Tulsa behind an offensive line that gave up ten hurries, sits 63rd in FTN, and now hosts a team that outgained Boise State by 223 yards. The market implies 18.5 Cowboy points. We do not believe them. Under.

BYU 31, Arizona 20. Cover. Our preview called this one of three toss-ups deciding BYU’s season, and we have the Cougars a bit higher than FTN does. Taking BYU here is putting money where the preview already was. If we are wrong, the fourteenth ranking is the thing that was wrong. Over.

Minnesota 27, Mississippi State 24. The upset, and our least confident pick. We faded Minnesota on a plus-24 turnover margin, so picking them is uncomfortable. But a road SEC favorite that FTN ranks 51st, against a home team at 55th, at minus 1.5, is a price built on conference letters rather than teams. This is a hunch, not a finding. Under.

Alabama 34, Kentucky 20. Cover, and it is the pick that hurts. We have Alabama fifteenth, Steele has them seventh, FTN has them eighth, and Week 1 looked we had it wrong. Kentucky sits 44th in FTN. Taking Alabama to cover 10.5 on the road is honest about where the evidence points. Over.

Tennessee 31, Georgia Tech 24. Tennessee wins, Georgia Tech covers. Over.

Texas 23, Ohio State 20. Texas covers, it’s close as you would expect. The Buckeye defense that lost three of the top eleven picks in the draft. There is always more talent in Columbus, but still a lot to ask of the young Buckeyes in Week 2. One note that could point to Ohio State. Ohio State rushed for 237 and held Ball State to 45, while Texas was outgained on the ground 161-156 by Texas State, and Sarkisian conceded the line had growing pains and the run game has to be better. If we lose this one, that is the reason. Under.

The post 2026 College Football: Reviewing Week 1, Previewing Week 2 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Coaching Carousel

Yep, it never stops. So here are some of the new faces in new places:

No need to rehash all the Lane Kiffin drama, but he’s now in Baton Rouge and will lead his LSU Tigers into Oxford for a Week 3 matchup against his former Ole Miss team, who are now led by Lane’s former defensive coordinator, Pete Golding.

Penn State pulled the plug on the James Franklin era by hiring Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. Franklin, meanwhile, will try to reboot a Virginia Tech program that has fallen hard over the past decade.

Former Utah coach Kyle Whittingham stepped down from the post he held for 22 seasons, then went to Ann Arbor to take over a scandal-ridden Michigan program. His replacement in SLC was longtime defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley.

And of course there’s no lack of hot seats headed into 2026; including the likes of Mike Norvell at Florida State, Lincoln Riley at USC, and The Hoodie himself at UNC, though Belichick may have temporarily silenced some critics Saturday with a surprising win over TCU in Dublin.

Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Wel-come Baaaaack

No idea if any of you are old enough to get that reference (ask John Travolta if not).

Anyway, the Pac-12 has emerged from its two-year stasis and is back in business, albeit with a much different, slimmed-down look. They are now firmly among the “Group of” conferences, but considering how things looked after ten of its former members announced they were leaving town, it’s still a remarkable comeback story. Holdovers Oregon State and Washington State brought on the biggest names in the Mountain West (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State), tacked on Texas State from the Sun Belt and….well, maybe call it the Pac-12 State conference.

The Playoff, Explained (Again)

The College Football Playoff stays at 12 teams for a third straight year after the Big Ten and SEC couldn’t agree on expanding it — the Big Ten wants 24 teams, the SEC wants 16, and neither side is budging yet. There is one meaningful tweak, though: the conference champions from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC are now guaranteed spots no matter how they’re ranked, and Notre Dame gets an automatic bid if it finishes in the top 12. The top three seeds will also get to pick which New Year’s Six bowl hosts their quarterfinal game, rather than following the old conference tie-ins. Small print, but it could tilt the scale in a close matchup come December.

My Preseason Top 10

1. Ohio State — The Buckeyes are the overwhelming preseason No. 1, and after coming up short in the semifinal last year, the pieces are in place to close the deal for the second time in three years.

2. Georgia — Kirby Smart’s program is a fixture at the top, and once again the Bulldogs look built to make a deep run. 

3. Oregon — Quarterback Dante Moore returns with plenty of weapons and arguably the best defensive line in the country. The OL is a bit of a question, but the bigger one is if they’ll finally get over the playoff hump.

4. Notre Dame — CJ Carr is back at quarterback, the defense is stacked at linebacker and in the secondary, and the schedule sets up kindly, with only two preseason-ranked opponents all year.

5. Indiana —  Curt Cignetti’s group went a stunning 16-0 last season, but they begin the defense of their title without a lot of players from last year — including star quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who has moved on to the NFL, leaving TCU transfer Josh Hoover under center. 

6. Texas — The Longhorns remain in the championship conversation as one of the SEC’s flagship programs. Arch Manning is back and ready to prove he is among the elite QBs in the sport.

7. Miami — Mario Cristobal keeps reloading at quarterback, this time with Duke transfer Darian Mensah, who set single-season passing records before a legal tug-of-war over his commitment finally landed him in Coral Gables.

8. Texas A&M — With a roster built around last year’s playoff run, Texas A&M should be squarely in the SEC and CFP conversation — but with the conference as loaded as ever, they’ll need to prove that breakthrough was real progress and not a one-year peak.

9.  Ole Miss — After taking over the program for their CFP run to the semifinal, now Pete Golding must show he truly belongs. Having QB Trinidad Chambliss back certainly helps.

10. Oklahoma — The Sooners come off a CFP appearance a year ago, and look like a legitimate playoff contender again — though as always in the Brent Venables era, the real question is whether the offense can find enough juice to match a great defense.

Boise State at No. 2 Oregon — 3:30pm ET, CBS

Line: Oregon -24.5, O/U 51.5

Two years ago these teams met in Eugene and the Ducks needed a last-second field goal to pull out a win. Oregon would go on to an undefeated regular season and Big Ten championship, while the Broncos made the playoff as the #3 seed.

It’s evident the pundits and Vegas don’t think quite as highly of Boise State this time. That narrow loss in ’24 was a big reason they made the playoff and notched the higher seed. A competitive showing this time around will help them get back. With QB Maddux Madsen back they should be better than last year’s 9-5 team, but their offensive line has a very tough task ahead of them against an elite Ducks defensive front. And while the Broncos have a pretty good D-line themselves, I’m not sure they can hold up for four quarters against Oregon’s offense. The Ducks should win more comfortably this time, but I think the spread is too large.

Oregon win/Boise State cover

Clemson at No. 11 LSU — 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: LSU -10, O/U 50.5

It’s Lane Kiffin’s LSU debut, and he’s doing it against the guy who’s the closest thing college football has to an opposing ideology — Dabo Swinney. Kiffin built his reputation on aggressive, high-tempo offense and aggressive roster construction through the portal, including new starting QB Sam Leavitt (Arizona State). Swinney has ignored the massive changes the sport has seen and still does things his way — developmental recruiting, program continuity, and most notably eschewing the transfer portal.

For the first time since 2023, the Tigers have a new man under center, Christopher Vizzina, who has one career start and 64 pass attempts in four years at Clemson — and once again Swinney went internal rather than dip into the portal for more experience. Vizzina will be walking into one of the loudest true road environments in the country for his first season-opening start. That’s a tough ask even for an experienced QB. 

LSU win/cover

No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss — (Sunday @ Nashville, TN) 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Ole Miss -6.5, O/U 55.5

This is year one of the full Pete Golding era after he took over after the regular season and promptly led the Rebels to the playoff semifinal. Golding inherits a loaded, veteran roster — quarterback Trinidad Chambliss returns after that CFP run, and running back Kewan Lacy and linebacker Suntarine Perkins headline a staff stacked with Mississippi natives and former Rebels. The pressure here isn’t about talent; it’s about whether Golding can be his own man after inheriting Lane Kiffin’s machine

Jeff Brohm is in year four, has never won fewer than nine games at Louisville, and has quietly built one of the best programs in the ACC. The running game should again be one of the best in the country: Isaac Brown averaged an absurd 8.8 yards per carry a year ago, and paired with power back Keyjuan Brown, this backfield could approach 2,000 combined rushing yards. The question mark is quarterback, where Brohm is breaking his own pattern. His last three transfer starters (Jack Plummer, Tyler Shough, Miller Moss) all arrived with significant starting experience. The guy this year, Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz, has thrown only 36 college passes. He brings more athleticism and dual-threat ability than any Brohm quarterback yet, but he’s stepping into his first career start in prime time against a CFP-tested SEC defense.

Ole Miss win/cover

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This week really kicks things off across the country.

Here we look at fourteen games over five days, running from a Thursday kickoff in Atlanta to a Labor Day nightcap in Tallahassee. Three of them are inside a touchdown. Both of the tightest are after Saturday.

Win probabilities below come from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Point spreads are DraftKings. Totals were from CBS Sports.

Our full season preview and initial Power Rankings can be found here.

Thursday, September 3

Colorado at Georgia Tech (8:00 PM, ESPN) — Georgia Tech is a 6.5-point home favorite, and ESPN gives them a 58.5% chance to win. Those two numbers do not agree. A 6.5-point favorite normally wins closer to seven times in ten. The model is shaving nearly ten points of probability off the market’s number, and it is doing so in the only Thursday game that isn’t a tune-up.

BSL has Georgia Tech outside the ACC’s top six. This is the first live test of that call, and it comes against a Big 12 opponent in the Yellow Jackets’ building. A comfortable Tech win doesn’t refute the position by itself — one September home game against a middling Big 12 team is not much evidence either way. But losing it would be the sort of result that makes the preseason ranking look correct for the wrong reason, and we’d rather be right for the right one.

The total is 50.5, which suggests the market expects this to be decided by whichever offense functions rather than by field position.

Friday, September 4

Miami at Stanford (9:00 PM, ESPN) — The Hurricanes are 24.5-point favorites with a 94.1% win probability. The interesting part is not whether Miami wins.

Miami finished 2025 with a +30 sack differential, best in FBS. That number is also the reason for caution. The Hurricanes lost 14,601 career snaps off both lines of scrimmage, and a pass rush that dominant is usually a function of the four guys doing the rushing rather than the scheme calling for it. Darian Mensah arrives from Duke to replace a quarterback who was drafted. Miami is BSL’s No. 7 team, a 46% favorite in the ACC, and 71% to reach the playoff. That’s a lot of confidence pointed at a roster that has to rebuild in the trenches.

Stanford is worth a moment. Tavita Pritchard won his head coaching debut 37-27 over Hawaii on August 29, closing on a 14-6 run over the final nine minutes after the Rainbow Warriors had cut it to 23-21. Michigan transfer Davis Warren threw for 252 yards in his first game action in roughly 20 months. It was one game against a Mountain West opponent, and the Cardinal have now had five straight losing seasons. But a program that has spent half a decade getting run off the field won its opener and then got a Friday night home date against a playoff contender. That is not nothing.

Fresno State at USC (9:00 PM, FOX) — USC is laying 23.5 with a 92% win probability, and this is the Trojans’ second game in six days.

The first one was instructive in both directions. Jayden Maiava went 25-of-29 for 286 yards and two touchdowns, added a rushing score, and USC led San Jose State 35-3 through three quarters. Trent Mosley had seven catches for 118 in his debut, 52 of it after the catch, plus a 41-yard punt return. Six of the ten Trojans who caught a pass were playing their first game at USC. That is the version of the roster reload Lincoln Riley was selling.

Then San Jose State scored 23 points in the fourth quarter against USC’s backups and the final read 42-26. Riley said afterward the way his starters played deserved to be a single-digit game. He is right, and the caveat is that the fourth quarter counts too. Gary Patterson’s first game as defensive coordinator was mostly sharp and then wasn’t.

USC also played without defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart and receivers Tanook Hines and Terrell Anderson, all apparent injuries. Worth watching whether any of them are back Friday. BSL has the Trojans 15th nationally with a 33% playoff chance and 7% in the Big Ten, which is a hedge on exactly this question.

Saturday, September 5

Liberty at James Madison (12:00 PM, ESPNU) — James Madison is a 6.5-point favorite at 71.9%. The Dukes reached the 2025 playoff through the old access loophole and then lost Bob Chesney to UCLA. This is the first Saturday of finding out what’s left.

The broader Group of Six problem applies here. Only 23 of 76 returning all-conference players from the five non-power leagues stayed at the same school this offseason. Sustaining anything at that level now requires re-recruiting your own roster every winter, and JMU had to do it while also replacing the coach who built the thing.

Oregon State at Houston (12:00 PM, ESPN) — Houston is favored by 18.5, down from 20.5 earlier in the week, with a 91.3% win probability.

This is BSL’s sharpest published disagreement of the preseason. Phil Steele has Houston fourth in the Big 12. BSL has them seventh. The case for the lower ranking is not that the Cougars were bad. It’s that they were 6-1 in one-possession games, 4-1 in games decided by a field goal or less, won five times after trailing or being tied in the fourth quarter, and enjoyed the largest positive penalty margin in the country at 38 fewer than their opponents. Over four seasons Houston has ten wins by a field goal or less, most in the nation.

Nearly every indicator there points toward regression. None of them guarantee it. Willie Fritz has now built a four-year pattern of winning close games, and at some point a pattern that long stops being described as luck and starts being described as a team. We are not there yet, but the argument gets harder to make each year it repeats.

Oregon State is in the relaunched Pac-12 and opens on the road against a ranked opponent. BSL has the Beavers last in the new league’s title odds at 3%.

Towson at Navy (3:30 PM, CBSSN) — Navy is a 30.5-point favorite at 96.6%. Local interest for our purposes. Towson is FCS, Navy is a legitimate AAC contender, and the number reflects both facts.

Boise State at Oregon (3:30 PM, CBS) — The Ducks lay 24.5 with a 94.8% win probability, and that number deserves attention.

BSL put Boise State in the unpublished bracket as the Group of Six representative and made them a 34% favorite in the new Pac-12, the shortest price in the league. The market has them as a three-and-a-half touchdown underdog in Eugene. Both things can be true — Boise can be the best of the non-power teams and still get run out of Autzen — but there is recent history here worth remembering. In 2025 Boise came into the year as the presumptive G6 favorite, went to Tampa in Week 1, and lost to South Florida 34-7. The non-competitiveness of that loss shaped how the Broncos were viewed for months.

Four G5 teams have made the playoff. Their average losing margin is three touchdowns. Boise’s task Saturday is not to win. It’s to avoid handing the committee a data point.

Oregon is BSL’s second-ranked team with the top defensive line in the country and the fifth-best staff, and Dante Moore is second in the quarterback rankings. Drew Mehringer’s first game as offensive coordinator.

Baylor vs. Auburn (3:30 PM, ABC, Mercedes-Benz Stadium) — Note the venue. This is a neutral-site kickoff game in Atlanta, not a trip to Jordan-Hare. Auburn is a 7-point favorite at 72.9%, with the highest total on the board at 59.5.

Auburn is a BSL higher-than-consensus call. Alex Golesh arrives from South Florida, DJ Durkin runs the defense, and Byrum Brown follows Golesh over from USF to play quarterback. That’s a coordinator, a head coach, and a starting quarterback all learning a new building at once. The bet is that Golesh’s offense travels.

Baylor has a regression argument running the other direction. The Bears fumbled 14 times and lost 12 of them. Their opponents fumbled 8 times and recovered 6. An 18.2% recovery rate on their own fumbles was the worst in FBS. Fumble recovery is close to random over a full season, and Baylor was on the wrong end of it about as thoroughly as a team can be. That should even out. It doesn’t mean the Bears are good.

These two met in Waco last September and Auburn won 38-24 behind 308 rushing yards.

Clemson at LSU (7:30 PM, ABC) — LSU is favored by 10.5 at 75.3%. The model is a bit lower than the number implies, though not dramatically.

Same matchup as last year’s opener, reversed. LSU won 17-10 in Death Valley in 2025, holding Clemson to 32 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Now it’s Baton Rouge, and almost everything else is different. Lane Kiffin is in his first year at LSU with Blake Baker running the defense and Sam Leavitt in from Arizona State at quarterback. Clemson has a new defensive coordinator in Tom Allen and a new offensive coordinator in Chad Morris.

Clemson entered 2025 with real hype and finished with two losses in three weeks. They enter 2026 unranked. That is a fast fall for a program that was a preseason top-five team a year ago, and this is the game that either starts the correction or confirms it.

One thing to keep in view: LSU’s schedule. SP+ ranks it 19th-toughest in the country, FPI has it 11th. Both are national ranks, and both say the Tigers will not get many soft weeks. BSL published LSU at 42% to make the playoff with an unpublished revision down to 40% after the FPI data arrived. The revision looks defensible.

UCLA at California (10:30 PM, ESPN) — California is a 1.5-point home favorite at 57.9%. This line moved. Earlier in the week the number had UCLA favored by 1.5 on the road, so it has crossed the three-point key number in the wrong direction for the Bruins.

Two first-year head coaches. Bob Chesney comes to UCLA from James Madison. Tosh Lupoi takes over at Cal after running Oregon’s defense. BSL flagged Cal as the ACC dark horse in the preview, and a Week 1 win over a Big Ten opponent, however modest that Big Ten opponent may be, would be a real start on that argument.

Kickoff is 10:30 Eastern, which means most of the audience for the closest game on Saturday’s board will be asleep for it.

Sunday, September 6

Washington State at Washington (4:00 PM, NBC) — The Huskies lay 21.5 with an 87.9% win probability. That gap is smaller than it looks but real: a three-touchdown favorite usually grades out in the low 90s, and ESPN is shaving a few points off. Rivalry games get shaved. Sometimes correctly.

Washington State is a member of the relaunched Pac-12, which now runs a seven-game round robin plus a flex week in Week 13. The Apple Cup survived the realignment. BSL has Washington 19th nationally at 22% to make the playoff, and has Washington State sixth in the new Pac-12 at 10%.

Louisville at Ole Miss (7:30 PM, ABC) — Ole Miss is a 6.5-point favorite at 73.6%, and this is the most interesting game of the weekend for anyone tracking BSL’s published positions, because two of them collide in it.

Louisville is a higher-than-consensus call. The case is specific. Isaac Brown averaged 8.75 yards per carry, first nationally by more than a full yard over second place. His backup Keyjuan Brown was third at 7.33. Edge rusher Clev Lubin carries the highest returning edge grade in FBS since 2024, with 110 pressures and a 24% win rate that led all P4 edges. That is a defensible foundation for a team most people have outside the top 20.

Ole Miss is the counterweight. The Rebels are ninth in the polls, BSL had them tenth at 40% to reach the playoff, and Pete Golding takes over from Lane Kiffin after running LSU’s defense. Trinidad Chambliss won his eligibility case in court and starts, and he is third in BSL’s quarterback rankings.

A Louisville win in Oxford would be the single most useful early result for the preview’s credibility. A comfortable Ole Miss win would put the Louisville call under real pressure by Week 2.

Wisconsin at Notre Dame (7:30 PM, NBC) — Notre Dame lays 20.5 at 94.3%.

The Irish carry BSL’s highest playoff probability in the entire preview at 78%, ahead of Ohio State. The supporting numbers are strong. Notre Dame returns 72% of its snaps, the most in the country. Its explosive play differential last season was +7.5%, best in FBS. The offensive line allowed 12 sacks and the team averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and that line is ranked first in BSL’s unit rankings with Joe Rudolph coaching it. Cornerback Leonard Moore has allowed 19 completions for a first down in his career, none of them while trailing, and four in his last eleven games.

The number to watch is health rather than performance. Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa was on modified activity in early August coming off a November ACL tear, and Marcus Freeman was hopeful he’d be available for the opener. That status is unconfirmed as of publication and worth checking before kickoff.

Notre Dame has no conference championship to fall back on. Every September result is a playoff résumé item whether it looks like one or not.

Monday, September 7

SMU at Florida State (7:30 PM, ESPN) — SMU is a 3-point road favorite. ESPN gives them a 51.5% chance to win. That is the widest model-versus-market gap on the entire board, and it closes the weekend.

A three-point road favorite normally projects somewhere in the high 50s. ESPN has this as a coin flip. Either the model sees something in Florida State that the market doesn’t, or it is discounting SMU’s road number. Worth flagging honestly: we do not know which, and it is a hunch rather than a finding to say the model is picking up on the Seminoles’ home environment.

Florida State beat New Mexico State 34-17 on August 29. That tells us the Seminoles took care of an FCS-adjacent opponent and not much else.

The relevant BSL context is that Florida State does not appear anywhere in the published ACC title odds. Miami 46, SMU 13, Louisville 13, Clemson 11, Virginia Tech 6, Pitt 4, field 7. The Seminoles are inside that 7% field. SMU sits third at 13% and is ranked 19th nationally. If FSU wins this game at home on Labor Day night, that field number gets revisited in Week 2, and we’ll say so.

What Week 0 Already Told Us

Three results from August 29 carry forward.

Virginia 34, NC State 8. Beau Pribula went 9-of-11 for 155 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 110 more on 15 carries, the first Virginia quarterback to hit 100 rushing yards in a game since Brennan Armstrong in 2022. The Cavaliers ran it 57 times for 258 yards, converted all four of their fourth downs, and put together a 23-play, 75-yard drive that consumed 12:15. NC State managed 168 total yards at 3.3 per play.

BSL has Virginia on the record as a lower-than-consensus team. That call looks worse than it did a week ago. The reasoning behind it was partly that Virginia returns 48,313 career snaps, the most in FBS, which is a roster built on accumulated age rather than accumulated talent. Saturday suggested the accumulated age is playing well. We’ll keep the position and keep testing it.

North Carolina 15, TCU 10 in Dublin. Billy Edwards Jr. threw for 232 yards with no touchdown passes, North Carolina lost two fumbles, and the Tar Heels won anyway because TCU took 11 penalties for 100 yards and went 1-for-5 on fourth down. TCU scored 10 in the first quarter and nothing after.

USC 42, San Jose State 26. Covered above.

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No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami — Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31) 7:30pm ET, ESPN

Line: Ohio State -9.5, O/U 40.5

These two historic programs don’t meet very often — this will be just the 6th time ever — but one of those was a game for the ages that ended with maybe the most controversial official’s call ever. The stakes are nearly as high for this one, and as the over-under suggests, it will likely be decided by the defenses.

The Buckeyes come in as the defending champs, experience that could come in handy. Their defense is ridiculously good, leading the nation in both points and yards surrendered per game. Even in their only loss in the Big Ten Championship Game they held the Indiana Hoosiers to just 13 points. There really aren’t many more superlatives you can add to that, and the Hurricanes will have their work cut out for them. Offensively they once again have the best receiving weapons in the country, Jeremiah Smith and the underrated Carnell Tate, and a solid dual-threat QB in Julian Sayin. Their running game isn’t special, but good enough to add balance. Their offensive line has been prone to inconsistency, and that could be a problem against a defensive front like Miami.

The Hurricanes’ formula is likely to be pretty pugilistic — play in a phone booth and shorten the game to limit the Buckeyes’ possessions. This worked in a 10-3 victory at Texas A&M a couple weeks ago, though the Aggies aren’t quite at OSU’s level. Miami will need Carson Beck to manage the game efficiently and avoid all costly mistakes, something he hasn’t done with great consistency. Getting the ball in the hands of electric true freshman Malachi Toney where he can create big plays is a must. RB Mark Fletcher will need to pound out yards the way he did on Miami’s decisive scoring drive against A&M to keep the Canes out of third-and-long situations. Defensively the plan is simple — exploit what’s been an occasionally suspect offensive line and get after the quarterback with one of the elite defensive fronts in the game, led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. If Sayin is uncomfortable all night, the Canes have a shot.

My Pick: I think Miami can keep this close early and maybe even jump out to a lead. Remember, last season the teams with the first round byes all came out flat and lost their games, so Ohio State will have to battle the effects of a long layoff. But I think by the second half the Buckeyes’ talent will take over. 

Ohio State win/cover

No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon — Orange Bowl (Jan. 1) Noon ET, ESPN

Line: Oregon -2.5, O/U 51.5

As the rankings and point spread suggest, this looks like the most evenly-matched game of the playoff so far.

The Red Raiders are led by their defense that ranked third in the nation in both major statistical categories — points and yards allowed per game. Importantly, at least for this matchup, they were the best in the country in rushing yards allowed — just 68.5 per game. They aren’t just good on that side of the ball, they’re plucky too — their 23 fumbles-forced also led the country. All-in-all, this is a fierce defense playing in a conference known for offense. Offensively Tech has a balanced attack and can move the ball well – their 480 yards of offense per game was fifth in the nation. They also get out to big leads, outscoring their opponents by 262 points in the first two quarters this season, which leads the country. They did struggle in their loss at Arizona State, but QB Behren Morton was out with an injury. Still, I imagine the Ducks will watch that film and maybe even call up their old OC Kenny Dillingham for tips.

Oregon has an explosive offense, led by the 13th best rushing offense in the country. They’ve got to find a way to get yards against Tech’s elite run defense. More importantly, QB Dante Moore needs to be able to keep the ball moving in the passing game — if there is a soft spot in the Tech defense, that is it. Stretching the field could open up things for the Ducks’ running attack. Defensively Oregon really let up in the second half of their first round game against James Madison. That’s not terribly concerning, as it happens sometimes when you have a 34-6 halftime lead against a lesser opponent. But there have been other times this season where they’ve had lapses in closer games (4th quarter at Penn State, most notably). They can’t afford to let their guard dow against the Red Raiders.

My Pick: I think Oregon is the more talented team on paper. Texas Tech feels like the more complete team to me. This is another game where I wonder if the team with the longer layoff, Texas Tech, struggles to get going after not playing since December 6. Watch out for special teams in this one too, where I give Texas Tech the edge.

Texas Tech win/cover

No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama — Rose Bowl (Jan. 1) 4pm ET, ESPN

Line: Indiana -7, O/U 47.5

These teams have never played before. Indiana is playing in the Rose Bowl game for the first time since 1968. There’s going to be a lot of talk about nostalgia and history, but this comes down to one thing — whether can Alabama score against Indiana’s elite defense.

The Tide offense has been very pass-heavy this season. Ty Simpson threw for 3,500 yards and 28 Tis the season, and WRs Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams are the best pair this side of Columbus, OH. But their running game offers little balance and their offensive line has ben leaky at times. Defensively the Tide have been very good, particularly up front, while the secondary has been prone to the occasional breakdown.

Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza leads a balanced Hoosier offense. moving the ball through the air will be necessary, so the O-line will need to give him time. Defensively the Hoosiers are outstanding, right behind Ohio State in the major categories. With Alabama not being a serious threat to run the ball, their focus will be on rushing the passer and defending against the big plays in the passing game. An underrated part of Simpson’s game is both his ability to extend plays and take off for sizable runs, so that’s something Indiana must guard against.

My Pick: Last season when Indiana made the playoff as an 11-1 at large team, it felt like they should have just been happy to be there. That’s no longer the case — Indiana is legit. Alabama reached its ceiling with their thrilling come-from-behind victory over Oklahoma. The road ends here, against an Indiana defense that will give the Crimson Tide all kinds of problems.

Indiana win/cover

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss — Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1) 8pm ET, ESPN

Line: Georgia -6.5, O/U 55.5

This is a rematch of what was a great back-and-forth game in October that Ole Miss led in the 4th Quarter before Georgia rattled off 17 unanswered points to get a 43-35 win in Athens. There will probably be a lot of talk about a guy who won’t even be in the stadium — former Rebels, and current LSU head coach Lane Kiffin. Don’t waste oxygen on him. Win or lose, the Rebels will be well-prepared for this rematch and his absence will have no bearing on the outcome.

Georgia’s offense is well-balanced and efficient. They’re good at sustaining long drives. In QB Gunner Stockton they have what feels like the second-coming of Stetson Bennett — unheralded recruit, bided his time as a backup, then took over when the bigger-name guy got injured and never looked back. Georgia’s defense has been prone to slow starts and strong finishes in some games this season. They came back to win at Tennessee and at home against Ole Miss, but fell at home against Alabama — all after giving up sizable early leads. While they locked down the opponent in the 4th Quarter in all three of those games, they really shouldn’t keep tempting fate like that.

The Rebels have been a great story this season, coaching drama notwithstanding. They are led by the dynamic Division II transfer QB Trinidad Chambliss. Leading rusher Kewan Lacy had to leave the first round game against Tulane with a shoulder injury. He is expected to play, but that will definitely be something to watch. The Rebels defense has been….well, serviceable enough to post 12 wins. They can, and have, been run on to a good extent (148 ypg). They are going to have to do better in that regard and force Georgia into 3rd-and-long, where their much more effective pass defense can get them off the field.

My Pick: This should be a great game. Like last time, expect Ole Miss to start fast. Georgia has not played since the SEC championship game (Dec. 6). Again, a question of rust and layoff. I expect a closer game than their first meeting.

Georgia win/Ole Miss cover

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