A word on method before anything else, because this is the week the sport overreacts.

Our August work is the starting point and it stays put until something argues it down. The burden sits with the change, not with the position. We are not reshuffling on wins and losses. We are looking for two things.

Significant injuries. And performance that diverged meaningfully from what the game was priced at.

A team that was supposed to win by four touchdowns and won by one has told us something. A team that beat an FCS opponent by fifty has not. Every change below carries a reason. Where there is no reason, there is no change.

Quick Hits

Michigan was our worst read, and the Hail Mary is the least of it. We had the Wolverines 16th on three things: the trenches, Kyle Whittingham, and Jason Beck repairing 23 interceptions in two years. All three were tested against Western Michigan and all three failed. The offensive line, which lost only two starters from a solid unit, badly lost its battle against a rebuilt Broncos front. The defensive front, supposedly a strength on paper, generated one tackle for loss and surrendered a 20-play drive that consumed 13:40. Underwood started 5-of-5 for 61 yards. Between that and the winning play he was 6-of-16 for 62 yards with an interception, locking onto receivers and forcing throws into impossible windows. Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter combined for 59 yards on 16 carries. Western Michigan was, by preseason SP+, the second-worst team Michigan will play all year, and Michigan was outplayed for essentially the full sixty minutes.

Cal was our ACC dark horse and did not close. They lost 45-24 at home to UCLA. Total yardage was comparable and the game turned on three Cal turnovers. What does not overstate it is the fourth quarter. Cal was outscored 21-0 at home in the final quarter. Sagapolutele threw two interceptions to Ta’Shawn James in that quarter. Wayne Knight scored on a 31-yard run one play after the first and a 4-yard run after the second. Anthony Woods finished it from 53. We should also admit the pick was more aggressive than we let on: FTN’s model had Cal 68th in the country entering the season. That was not a mild contrarian position and we did not frame it as the reach it was.

Oklahoma State lost at Tulsa. The Cowboys were our fifth and most contrarian “like better” call. The two programs have met 43 times since 1953, and Oklahoma State had never lost to Tulsa in consecutive meetings until Saturday. The last time Tulsa won back-to-back was 1951-52, when the opponent was still called Oklahoma A&M. The failure was specific: Eric Morris brought two starting linemen with him from North Texas and evidently needed more. Drew Mestemaker’s 29 completions gained 241 yards with two interceptions and a lost fumble, and Caleb Hawkins, a 1,400-yard rusher in Denton, managed 79 yards on 18 carries. FTN had Oklahoma State 63rd preseason. We were the outlier.

Georgia Tech was the first live test and we passed it for the wrong reason. We put the Yellow Jackets outside the ACC’s top six and named Thursday as the first check. Colorado won 14-13 on a Julian Lewis touchdown pass with 42 seconds left, then blocked a 45-yard field goal as time expired. The ranking looks right. The reasoning does not. Our case was 24% of offensive snaps returning and a quarterback who had never started. Alberto Mendoza went 17-of-23 for 237 in his debut. Georgia Tech lost because it ran for 51 yards on 30 carries and fumbled three times in the first half.

There is a second problem with claiming this one. We treated Colorado as a middling Big 12 opponent. Deion Sanders’ transfer class looked interesting. Gideon Lampron, Liona Lefau and Randon Fontenette combined for 22 tackles, and a rebuilt front held Justice Haynes and Malachi Hosley to 3.1 yards per carry. Georgia Tech expected that game. Losing it reframes the night from “we were right” to “we do not yet know what that loss was worth,” and Colorado hosts Weber State on Saturday, so will be awhile before we learn more about the Buffaloes.

Georgia Tech still has Tennessee in Atlanta this week, and Georgia to end the year in their remaining out-of-conference slate.

Might have had Virginia wrong. We conceded after Week 0 that our lower-than-consensus call looks off. Nothing has improved it. Bill Connelly at ESPN described the Cavaliers as playing like grown men against NC State and establishing a physicality much of the ACC will struggle to match.

The model-versus-market flags finished 1-3. We named four games where ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor disagreed with the market. Georgia Tech was the largest gap on any favorite, ESPN at 58.5% against a spread implying roughly 69%, and Georgia Tech lost. The model was right to shave. LSU was the reverse: ESPN had the Tigers at 75.3% against a number implying about 80%, and LSU won by 41. Washington was the same story, ESPN at 87.9% against a line that moved from 21.5 to 23.5 during the week, and the Huskies won by 14 without covering. SMU, the widest gap on the board at 51.5% against a market implying the high 50s, won by exactly three as a three-point favorite. Straight up, the model finished 1-3. Against the number it finished 2-1 with a push.

What went right: Boise State. The task, as we defined it, was not to win at Autzen but to avoid handing the committee a data point. The Broncos were tied 27-27 in the fourth quarter, won the fourth-down battle 2-of-3 against Oregon’s 0-for-3, and lost 34-27 as three-and-a-half-touchdown underdogs. This was Boise’s second trip to Eugene in three seasons and the second one-score result; the 2024 visit ended 37-34 on a field goal as time expired, and that competitive loss was a meaningful part of why the Broncos made the playoff as the No. 3 seed. ESPN’s own playoff projection now notes the same precedent and slots Boise State into the bracket as the Group of Six representative.

And Louisville. We liked Louisville more than most in our preview. We expected a quality game vs. Ole Miss. Ole Miss won 41-38 on a 48-yard field goal at the buzzer. Lincoln Kienholz, making his first career start after three seasons on Ohio State’s bench, threw for 307 with two touchdowns and no interceptions and ran for a team-best 69 yards. Louisville turned it over zero times, erased a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit and lost to a walk-off.  One thing to note is that Isaac Brown was held to 36 yards on 16 carries after leading the nation at 8.8 per carry last season. Louisville scored 38 on a top-ten SEC defense without him doing anything.

And Auburn.  Auburn was another team we had above consensus, and they got a win in a 1 score game after going 0-6 in them last year. Byrum Brown threw three interceptions and no touchdowns and Auburn won anyway, surviving DJ Lagway’s fourth-and-10 conversion and fourth-and-goal touchdown before a failed two-point pass ended it.

Three Corrections

We got three venues wrong in our Season and Week 1 Previews.

NC State and Virginia played at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. The season preview said São Paulo, but the game was moved.

Louisville and Ole Miss did not play in Oxford. The Week 1 preview called it a road game and asked what a Louisville win in Oxford would mean. It was a neutral-site game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, the inaugural Liberty Mutual Music City Kickoff, with Ole Miss as designated home team.

Wisconsin and Notre Dame did not play in South Bend. Our board listed it as a road game for Wisconsin. It was played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, part of a two-game neutral-site series.

Power Rankings

Five teams moved. Fourteen shifted only because someone above or below them moved, which is displacement. Miami cleared our threshold and we held them anyway, for reasons below.

Michigan, down four, and twenty may be generous. The largest deviation on the board: a 27.5-point favorite winning by one. The replay is worth explaining. NBC’s officiating analyst Terry McAulay said on air that his network’s clock was synced to the stadium clock, that the ball was nowhere near a player at zero, and that he could not see how the Big Ten arrived at one second. No additional angles aired during the review and the referee announced the change without explanation. The Big Ten released video and audio of its replay crew just before midnight, and that footage justified the decision. Either the stadium clock or the replay clock was out of sync, which is an inexcusable production failure either way.

None of which is the reason Michigan drops. Michigan drops because the specific things we ranked them on all failed in the same game. Oklahoma’s front led the nation with 63 tackles for loss and visits Saturday. If it exposes the same problems, Michigan leaves this list.

Oregon, down two. A 17.5-point deviation, and unlike Michigan’s it lands directly on something we published. We put Oregon second while calling the loss of both coordinators the single most interesting continuity test of 2026. Oregon outgained Boise State 497-274, got a career-high 378 from Dante Moore, and won by seven. Ten penalties for 90 yards, 4-of-12 on third down, 0-for-3 on fourth, no turnovers forced, and beaten on special teams. That is a finishing problem, and finishing is what coordinators do. Lanning said afterward there was a lot to fix.

LSU, up three. Plus 30.5 against the spread, the largest positive figure on the board, and against a Power Four opponent rather than an overmatched one. LSU rushed for 309 yards, gained 644 in total, and led 336-54 in yardage at halftime. Sam Leavitt completed a 20-yard pass to four different receivers. Jordan Ross and Princewill Umanmielen combined for four tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks, and Ross returned an interception for a score. Kiffin retained Blake Baker, which now looks like the shrewdest decision of his hire. Our August reservation about LSU was never the talent, it was the schedule split. One night does not bend a schedule that ranks 19th-toughest by SP+ and 11th by FPI. We feel considerably better about LSU than we did on Saturday morning, but the number doesn’t change significantly with that remaining schedule.

USC, up two. Plus 15.5 and a shutout. Maiava completed 92% for 349 and three scores, the best completion percentage at USC since 1995, and has five touchdowns against six incompletions in two games. Five of the top six pass-catchers were freshmen or sophomores. Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and Trent Mosley both cleared 100 yards, which no two USC freshmen had done since the school began keeping records in 1973. USC has not gone scoreless-against in back-to-back first halves since 2009 and scored two safeties, believed to be a program first. Gary Patterson’s unit is the story.

Miami, held at 7. Plus 14.5, which clears our threshold, and we are not moving them. Our published question about Miami was never the skill talent. It was whether a plus-30 sack differential travels after losing 14,601 career snaps off both lines. Mensah went 27-of-30 for 401 and five scores and Toney caught 12 for a school-record 234 and three touchdowns. Miami recorded two tackles for loss. And Stanford was missing three injured projected starting offensive linemen, plus receiver Nico Brown and edge rusher Gabe Kaminski. Miami’s backs also gained 76 yards on 22 carries through three quarters, which is its own small flag.

Injuries. Oklahoma played without two projected offensive line starters and still shut out UTEP while scoring on every possession through three quarters. That is a hold, not a drop, and it may matter in Ann Arbor. Notre Dame’s status on Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa remains unconfirmed; his recovery from a November ACL tear has run ahead of expectations, but clearance is not certain. USC’s three Week 0 absences remain unconfirmed. Ole Miss lost Kewan Lacy to a thigh injury that Pete Golding did not think was serious.

A note on method. FTN’s simulation model also moves teams on performance against expectation, and moves faster than we do. Readers who think we are slow have a visible benchmark. We think being slower in September is the point.

And a useful check. CBS published its projection of Tuesday’s AP poll after we had finished the table above, and framed the entire week’s movement as “the shifting nature of performance against expectations.” Our same thought process. The results line up more than they diverge: both have Ohio State first and Notre Dame second, both move LSU from 11th to exactly 8th, both drop Michigan from 16th to exactly 20th, and both land USC at 13th. Four of our five moves match a poll projection built from voter behavior rather than from a stated rule.

Three places we disagree. CBS drops Oregon five spots to 7th; we drop them two, because the coordinator question was already priced into our second-place ranking and a 223-yard yardage advantage is not the profile of a team in trouble. CBS raises Miami from 7th to 5th; we hold, because Stanford was missing three projected starting offensive linemen and Miami still managed two tackles for loss, so our published question went unasked rather than unanswered. And CBS drops Texas Tech two spots for the field goals against Abilene Christian; we hold at 9th, because our preseason work already named the quarterback as the weakness. That said, would have liked more vs. an FCS opponent, so maybe CBS has it right there.

One more line from that projection matters to us: Louisville is projected to fall out of the AP poll entirely after losing by three to No. 9 on a walk-off. We are keeping the Cardinals at 13% in the ACC.

The Playoff Field

These are our estimated probabilities of reaching the twelve-team field. Not rankings and not seeds. It is why Notre Dame carries the highest percentage (78%) chance of making the CFP,  while sitting second in the power rankings.

The Group of Six line does not move. It is roughly one full berth and it stays roughly one full berth no matter who claims it. What changed is who. Boise State went from 34% to 38% inside the Pac-12 and now appears in ESPN’s projected bracket as the Group of Six representative. The size of the slice is fixed; the name on it got clearer.

The Florida State Promise

We wrote in the Week 1 preview that Florida State appears nowhere in our published ACC title odds, and that if the Seminoles won at home on Labor Day night, the field number gets revisited in Week 2. Competitive game, but SMU got the win in Tallahassee.

The game came with a power outage of more than ninety minutes pushed kickoff to 9:15 p.m. Eastern, and Doak Campbell ran on partial power throughout. No replay review. No headset communication between coaches and players. No PA announcer, no sideline tablets, no working scoreboard. The clock came off the field.

Under those conditions Florida State was the better story and the worse team. Ashton Daniels threw for 125 yards on 12-of-23 and closed the night with a ball in the dirt and a throw into triple coverage. Samuel Singleton Jr. tied it at 24 on a 39-yard catch and run with 8:17 left. SMU’s Kevin Jennings was the best player on the field and still turned it over three times, including an interception in the end zone. Add Florida State’s 34-17 win over New Mexico State as a 30-point favorite, in which it led 17-10 late in the third, and the early September read is that the Seminoles are what most people thought they were. Not good enough. Norvell’s seat has to be getting warm.

SMU goes from 13% to 14% to win the ACC, after the road conference win.

Conference Projections

ACC: Miami 49%, SMU 14%, Louisville 13%, Clemson 7%, Virginia Tech 6%, Pitt 4%, field 7%. Preseason was Miami 46%, SMU 13%, Louisville 13%, Clemson 11%, Virginia Tech 6%, Pitt 4%, field 7%.

Clemson comes down four points. Not because of the margin itself, but because the margin discredited the specific thing the 11% was built on. We put Clemson third in the ACC on the arrival of Tom Allen and Chad Morris. Clemson produced its first first down at 10:19 of the first quarter and waited nearly thirty minutes for a second. It finished with 145 yards, its fewest since 2009, and allowed 644, its most since 2012. Vizzina’s 17 dropbacks gained 82 yards. Tait Reynolds’ nine attempts, including three sacks, netted four. Connelly called the Morris hire lazy and reductive, which is the direct rebuttal to the bet we published.

Miami takes three of those four points. This is a move about the field, not about Miami. We just declined to move them in the power rankings because they did not answer our question about the trenches. Winning the ACC is a different question, and it got easier when the most credible challenger collapsed. The last point goes to the field, where the Florida State promise gets settled Monday night.

The counterweight Miami should not enjoy. The ACC went 1-5 against the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC in Week 1, with a minus-80 point margin, the worst in league history, and recorded its most season-opening losses to current Power Four opponents ever. Miami’s path got easier and Miami’s résumé got worse in the same weekend. If the league does not improve, the November trip to Notre Dame becomes the only thing on the schedule the committee will weigh.

Two ACC numbers now look light. Pitt at 4% beat a decent Miami of Ohio team 59-14 with Mason Heintschel throwing for 453 yards and seven touchdowns, and could plausibly be 6-1 when it visits Miami in Week 8. Virginia Tech at 6% beat VMI 73-3 with genuine physicality in James Franklin’s debut, Jeffrey Overton Jr. and Marcellous Hawkins Jr. combining for 173 yards and five scores. Neither result proves much on its own. Both are worth watching before we defend those figures again.

Where the systems disagree, and why. Miami rises in the conference table and holds in the power rankings. These are not inconsistencies. The power ranking asks how good a team is. The conference number asks who wins a league. The playoff number asks who qualifies for a bracket. The same week can answer one and not the others.

SEC. Georgia 25%, Texas 17%, LSU 14% (from 11), Texas A&M 12%, Alabama 9%, Oklahoma 8%, Ole Miss 8% (from 10), field 7% (from 8). LSU is the biggest single move in the article, and it’s larger than the two-point playoff bump because the conference question and the schedule question are different. Ole Miss loses two for winning by three against a team we rank outside the top 20. The field loses one, mostly Missouri losing Hardy and Green.

Big Ten. Ohio State 31% (from 29), Oregon 24% (from 26), Indiana 23%, USC 9% (from 7), Penn State 4%, Michigan 3% (from 5), field 6%. Ohio State rises because two teams both gave ground in the same week, not because of Ball State. Penn State holds — we published a fade, and a shutout of Marshall doesn’t retire it.

Big 12. Texas Tech 42% (from 40), BYU 22%, Utah 9%, Arizona 8%, Kansas State 7%, TCU 4%, field 8% (from 10). Identical logic to Miami and Clemson in the ACC. Tech didn’t improve, Oklahoma State collapsed out of the field.

Pac-12. Boise State 38% (from 34), San Diego State 15%, Fresno State 14% (from 18), Texas State 13%, Washington State 10%, Utah State 6%, Oregon State 3%, Colorado State 1%. Our published preview had Fresno second at 18%, returning twelve starters, hosting Boise on October 10th in the game that decides the league. They then lost 39-0 to USC. Boise took the No. 2 team to the fourth quarter. The four point swing here might not be enough.

Conference Overviews

The ACC. The league we called bunched is bunching in the wrong direction, but the race may be better for it. Clemson lost by 41 and is effectively out of the conversation. Cal lost at home by 21. Georgia Tech lost to Colorado. Miami looked like a national title team on offense. Below that, Virginia, Louisville, Pitt and Virginia Tech all made real first impressions, and Duke, the defending champion, beat Tulane 17-3. SMU got the road win vs. FSU.

The SEC. LSU was the most impressive team in the country and it is not close. Kiffin’s return to Oxford on September 19th is one of the marquee events of the early season, and Ole Miss did its part by surviving Louisville. Alabama beat East Carolina 48-10 and ran for 227 yards, the specific number our lower-than-consensus call was built against. Keelon Russell went 18-of-30 for 256 with no interceptions and one sack, rushed for 23 on the game’s first third down, and moved the chains on seven of his twelve carries. Daniel Hill and freshman EJ Crowell combined for 84 on 16. We wrote that if Russell hits, Phil Steele is right and we look silly by October. FTN has Alabama eighth to our fifteenth. That two outlets on the other side of our call, and Kentucky is Saturday. Every SEC team won in Week 1.

The Big Ten. Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3 and held them under three yards per play, with Jeremiah Smith catching eight for 151 and 237 yards rushing as a team. Indiana beat North Texas 52-16 but was outgained on the ground 152-134 and currently sits 115th in non-garbage-time rushing success rate. Josh Hoover went 13-of-16 for 231 and four scores with no turnovers, which matters for a quarterback who lost the ball 42 times in 31 TCU starts. Penn State opened the Matt Campbell era 45-0 over Marshall with exactly one rush longer than ten yards. Rutgers lost at home to UMass, a program that was 0-32 against power-conference opponents before Thursday, and travels to Boston College on Friday.

The Big 12. Houston beat Oregon State 33-20 but did not cover. Texas Tech did not find a gear. Oklahoma State lost at Tulsa. BYU beat Utah Tech 63-7, and FTN has them 21st to our fourteenth. Arizona visits Provo on Saturday. Baylor lost by one and lost DJ Lagway to another injury, which is the live question in Waco.

The Pac-12. Boise State was the best thing that happened to the new league. ESPN now has the Broncos in its projected bracket and describes them as front-runners for the Group of Six berth if they keep playing like that. Memphis, which beat UNLV 27-21 in Week 0, visits Boise on Saturday. Washington State lost the Apple Cup 24-10 but held Washington’s backs to 3.3 yards per carry and missed two field goals in a one-score fourth quarter. Oregon State was competitive vs. Houston.

The Week 2 Board

Spreads and totals are DraftKings. Win probabilities are ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. All eight games are Saturday, September 12th.

The two marquee games carry the two lowest totals on the board. Everything else sits between 48.5 and 59.5. The market expects the best games this week to be grind it out games, and the Ohio State–Texas history supports it: three straight meetings, none of them shootouts, including 14-7 in Columbus last season.

Predictions

Oklahoma 24, Michigan 17. Oklahoma covers. Michigan’s problem is the one Western Michigan already exposed: protecting Bryce Underwood behind a line that lost its battle to a MAC front. Oklahoma led the nation with 63 tackles for loss and is missing two projected offensive line starters of its own, which is why this is seven and not fourteen. Under.

Texas A&M 38, Arizona State 17. Cover. The Aggies held Missouri State to 67 yards and four first downs, the fewest by an A&M opponent since 1978, and Marcel Reed completed nine of his final ten passes. Arizona State sits 40th in FTN’s model. Over.

Oregon 38, Oklahoma State 13. Cover. The harshest available view of our own miss. Oklahoma State scored 10 at Tulsa behind an offensive line that gave up ten hurries, sits 63rd in FTN, and now hosts a team that outgained Boise State by 223 yards. The market implies 18.5 Cowboy points. We do not believe them. Under.

BYU 31, Arizona 20. Cover. Our preview called this one of three toss-ups deciding BYU’s season, and we have the Cougars a bit higher than FTN does. Taking BYU here is putting money where the preview already was. If we are wrong, the fourteenth ranking is the thing that was wrong. Over.

Minnesota 27, Mississippi State 24. The upset, and our least confident pick. We faded Minnesota on a plus-24 turnover margin, so picking them is uncomfortable. But a road SEC favorite that FTN ranks 51st, against a home team at 55th, at minus 1.5, is a price built on conference letters rather than teams. This is a hunch, not a finding. Under.

Alabama 34, Kentucky 20. Cover, and it is the pick that hurts. We have Alabama fifteenth, Steele has them seventh, FTN has them eighth, and Week 1 looked we had it wrong. Kentucky sits 44th in FTN. Taking Alabama to cover 10.5 on the road is honest about where the evidence points. Over.

Tennessee 31, Georgia Tech 24. Tennessee wins, Georgia Tech covers. Over.

Texas 23, Ohio State 20. Texas covers, it’s close as you would expect. The Buckeye defense that lost three of the top eleven picks in the draft. There is always more talent in Columbus, but still a lot to ask of the young Buckeyes in Week 2. One note that could point to Ohio State. Ohio State rushed for 237 and held Ball State to 45, while Texas was outgained on the ground 161-156 by Texas State, and Sarkisian conceded the line had growing pains and the run game has to be better. If we lose this one, that is the reason. Under.

The post 2026 College Football: Reviewing Week 1, Previewing Week 2 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Coaching Carousel

Yep, it never stops. So here are some of the new faces in new places:

No need to rehash all the Lane Kiffin drama, but he’s now in Baton Rouge and will lead his LSU Tigers into Oxford for a Week 3 matchup against his former Ole Miss team, who are now led by Lane’s former defensive coordinator, Pete Golding.

Penn State pulled the plug on the James Franklin era by hiring Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. Franklin, meanwhile, will try to reboot a Virginia Tech program that has fallen hard over the past decade.

Former Utah coach Kyle Whittingham stepped down from the post he held for 22 seasons, then went to Ann Arbor to take over a scandal-ridden Michigan program. His replacement in SLC was longtime defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley.

And of course there’s no lack of hot seats headed into 2026; including the likes of Mike Norvell at Florida State, Lincoln Riley at USC, and The Hoodie himself at UNC, though Belichick may have temporarily silenced some critics Saturday with a surprising win over TCU in Dublin.

Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Wel-come Baaaaack

No idea if any of you are old enough to get that reference (ask John Travolta if not).

Anyway, the Pac-12 has emerged from its two-year stasis and is back in business, albeit with a much different, slimmed-down look. They are now firmly among the “Group of” conferences, but considering how things looked after ten of its former members announced they were leaving town, it’s still a remarkable comeback story. Holdovers Oregon State and Washington State brought on the biggest names in the Mountain West (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State), tacked on Texas State from the Sun Belt and….well, maybe call it the Pac-12 State conference.

The Playoff, Explained (Again)

The College Football Playoff stays at 12 teams for a third straight year after the Big Ten and SEC couldn’t agree on expanding it — the Big Ten wants 24 teams, the SEC wants 16, and neither side is budging yet. There is one meaningful tweak, though: the conference champions from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC are now guaranteed spots no matter how they’re ranked, and Notre Dame gets an automatic bid if it finishes in the top 12. The top three seeds will also get to pick which New Year’s Six bowl hosts their quarterfinal game, rather than following the old conference tie-ins. Small print, but it could tilt the scale in a close matchup come December.

My Preseason Top 10

1. Ohio State — The Buckeyes are the overwhelming preseason No. 1, and after coming up short in the semifinal last year, the pieces are in place to close the deal for the second time in three years.

2. Georgia — Kirby Smart’s program is a fixture at the top, and once again the Bulldogs look built to make a deep run. 

3. Oregon — Quarterback Dante Moore returns with plenty of weapons and arguably the best defensive line in the country. The OL is a bit of a question, but the bigger one is if they’ll finally get over the playoff hump.

4. Notre Dame — CJ Carr is back at quarterback, the defense is stacked at linebacker and in the secondary, and the schedule sets up kindly, with only two preseason-ranked opponents all year.

5. Indiana —  Curt Cignetti’s group went a stunning 16-0 last season, but they begin the defense of their title without a lot of players from last year — including star quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who has moved on to the NFL, leaving TCU transfer Josh Hoover under center. 

6. Texas — The Longhorns remain in the championship conversation as one of the SEC’s flagship programs. Arch Manning is back and ready to prove he is among the elite QBs in the sport.

7. Miami — Mario Cristobal keeps reloading at quarterback, this time with Duke transfer Darian Mensah, who set single-season passing records before a legal tug-of-war over his commitment finally landed him in Coral Gables.

8. Texas A&M — With a roster built around last year’s playoff run, Texas A&M should be squarely in the SEC and CFP conversation — but with the conference as loaded as ever, they’ll need to prove that breakthrough was real progress and not a one-year peak.

9.  Ole Miss — After taking over the program for their CFP run to the semifinal, now Pete Golding must show he truly belongs. Having QB Trinidad Chambliss back certainly helps.

10. Oklahoma — The Sooners come off a CFP appearance a year ago, and look like a legitimate playoff contender again — though as always in the Brent Venables era, the real question is whether the offense can find enough juice to match a great defense.

Boise State at No. 2 Oregon — 3:30pm ET, CBS

Line: Oregon -24.5, O/U 51.5

Two years ago these teams met in Eugene and the Ducks needed a last-second field goal to pull out a win. Oregon would go on to an undefeated regular season and Big Ten championship, while the Broncos made the playoff as the #3 seed.

It’s evident the pundits and Vegas don’t think quite as highly of Boise State this time. That narrow loss in ’24 was a big reason they made the playoff and notched the higher seed. A competitive showing this time around will help them get back. With QB Maddux Madsen back they should be better than last year’s 9-5 team, but their offensive line has a very tough task ahead of them against an elite Ducks defensive front. And while the Broncos have a pretty good D-line themselves, I’m not sure they can hold up for four quarters against Oregon’s offense. The Ducks should win more comfortably this time, but I think the spread is too large.

Oregon win/Boise State cover

Clemson at No. 11 LSU — 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: LSU -10, O/U 50.5

It’s Lane Kiffin’s LSU debut, and he’s doing it against the guy who’s the closest thing college football has to an opposing ideology — Dabo Swinney. Kiffin built his reputation on aggressive, high-tempo offense and aggressive roster construction through the portal, including new starting QB Sam Leavitt (Arizona State). Swinney has ignored the massive changes the sport has seen and still does things his way — developmental recruiting, program continuity, and most notably eschewing the transfer portal.

For the first time since 2023, the Tigers have a new man under center, Christopher Vizzina, who has one career start and 64 pass attempts in four years at Clemson — and once again Swinney went internal rather than dip into the portal for more experience. Vizzina will be walking into one of the loudest true road environments in the country for his first season-opening start. That’s a tough ask even for an experienced QB. 

LSU win/cover

No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss — (Sunday @ Nashville, TN) 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Ole Miss -6.5, O/U 55.5

This is year one of the full Pete Golding era after he took over after the regular season and promptly led the Rebels to the playoff semifinal. Golding inherits a loaded, veteran roster — quarterback Trinidad Chambliss returns after that CFP run, and running back Kewan Lacy and linebacker Suntarine Perkins headline a staff stacked with Mississippi natives and former Rebels. The pressure here isn’t about talent; it’s about whether Golding can be his own man after inheriting Lane Kiffin’s machine

Jeff Brohm is in year four, has never won fewer than nine games at Louisville, and has quietly built one of the best programs in the ACC. The running game should again be one of the best in the country: Isaac Brown averaged an absurd 8.8 yards per carry a year ago, and paired with power back Keyjuan Brown, this backfield could approach 2,000 combined rushing yards. The question mark is quarterback, where Brohm is breaking his own pattern. His last three transfer starters (Jack Plummer, Tyler Shough, Miller Moss) all arrived with significant starting experience. The guy this year, Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz, has thrown only 36 college passes. He brings more athleticism and dual-threat ability than any Brohm quarterback yet, but he’s stepping into his first career start in prime time against a CFP-tested SEC defense.

Ole Miss win/cover

The post College Football 2026 – Week 1 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

This week really kicks things off across the country.

Here we look at fourteen games over five days, running from a Thursday kickoff in Atlanta to a Labor Day nightcap in Tallahassee. Three of them are inside a touchdown. Both of the tightest are after Saturday.

Win probabilities below come from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Point spreads are DraftKings. Totals were from CBS Sports.

Our full season preview and initial Power Rankings can be found here.

Thursday, September 3

Colorado at Georgia Tech (8:00 PM, ESPN) — Georgia Tech is a 6.5-point home favorite, and ESPN gives them a 58.5% chance to win. Those two numbers do not agree. A 6.5-point favorite normally wins closer to seven times in ten. The model is shaving nearly ten points of probability off the market’s number, and it is doing so in the only Thursday game that isn’t a tune-up.

BSL has Georgia Tech outside the ACC’s top six. This is the first live test of that call, and it comes against a Big 12 opponent in the Yellow Jackets’ building. A comfortable Tech win doesn’t refute the position by itself — one September home game against a middling Big 12 team is not much evidence either way. But losing it would be the sort of result that makes the preseason ranking look correct for the wrong reason, and we’d rather be right for the right one.

The total is 50.5, which suggests the market expects this to be decided by whichever offense functions rather than by field position.

Friday, September 4

Miami at Stanford (9:00 PM, ESPN) — The Hurricanes are 24.5-point favorites with a 94.1% win probability. The interesting part is not whether Miami wins.

Miami finished 2025 with a +30 sack differential, best in FBS. That number is also the reason for caution. The Hurricanes lost 14,601 career snaps off both lines of scrimmage, and a pass rush that dominant is usually a function of the four guys doing the rushing rather than the scheme calling for it. Darian Mensah arrives from Duke to replace a quarterback who was drafted. Miami is BSL’s No. 7 team, a 46% favorite in the ACC, and 71% to reach the playoff. That’s a lot of confidence pointed at a roster that has to rebuild in the trenches.

Stanford is worth a moment. Tavita Pritchard won his head coaching debut 37-27 over Hawaii on August 29, closing on a 14-6 run over the final nine minutes after the Rainbow Warriors had cut it to 23-21. Michigan transfer Davis Warren threw for 252 yards in his first game action in roughly 20 months. It was one game against a Mountain West opponent, and the Cardinal have now had five straight losing seasons. But a program that has spent half a decade getting run off the field won its opener and then got a Friday night home date against a playoff contender. That is not nothing.

Fresno State at USC (9:00 PM, FOX) — USC is laying 23.5 with a 92% win probability, and this is the Trojans’ second game in six days.

The first one was instructive in both directions. Jayden Maiava went 25-of-29 for 286 yards and two touchdowns, added a rushing score, and USC led San Jose State 35-3 through three quarters. Trent Mosley had seven catches for 118 in his debut, 52 of it after the catch, plus a 41-yard punt return. Six of the ten Trojans who caught a pass were playing their first game at USC. That is the version of the roster reload Lincoln Riley was selling.

Then San Jose State scored 23 points in the fourth quarter against USC’s backups and the final read 42-26. Riley said afterward the way his starters played deserved to be a single-digit game. He is right, and the caveat is that the fourth quarter counts too. Gary Patterson’s first game as defensive coordinator was mostly sharp and then wasn’t.

USC also played without defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart and receivers Tanook Hines and Terrell Anderson, all apparent injuries. Worth watching whether any of them are back Friday. BSL has the Trojans 15th nationally with a 33% playoff chance and 7% in the Big Ten, which is a hedge on exactly this question.

Saturday, September 5

Liberty at James Madison (12:00 PM, ESPNU) — James Madison is a 6.5-point favorite at 71.9%. The Dukes reached the 2025 playoff through the old access loophole and then lost Bob Chesney to UCLA. This is the first Saturday of finding out what’s left.

The broader Group of Six problem applies here. Only 23 of 76 returning all-conference players from the five non-power leagues stayed at the same school this offseason. Sustaining anything at that level now requires re-recruiting your own roster every winter, and JMU had to do it while also replacing the coach who built the thing.

Oregon State at Houston (12:00 PM, ESPN) — Houston is favored by 18.5, down from 20.5 earlier in the week, with a 91.3% win probability.

This is BSL’s sharpest published disagreement of the preseason. Phil Steele has Houston fourth in the Big 12. BSL has them seventh. The case for the lower ranking is not that the Cougars were bad. It’s that they were 6-1 in one-possession games, 4-1 in games decided by a field goal or less, won five times after trailing or being tied in the fourth quarter, and enjoyed the largest positive penalty margin in the country at 38 fewer than their opponents. Over four seasons Houston has ten wins by a field goal or less, most in the nation.

Nearly every indicator there points toward regression. None of them guarantee it. Willie Fritz has now built a four-year pattern of winning close games, and at some point a pattern that long stops being described as luck and starts being described as a team. We are not there yet, but the argument gets harder to make each year it repeats.

Oregon State is in the relaunched Pac-12 and opens on the road against a ranked opponent. BSL has the Beavers last in the new league’s title odds at 3%.

Towson at Navy (3:30 PM, CBSSN) — Navy is a 30.5-point favorite at 96.6%. Local interest for our purposes. Towson is FCS, Navy is a legitimate AAC contender, and the number reflects both facts.

Boise State at Oregon (3:30 PM, CBS) — The Ducks lay 24.5 with a 94.8% win probability, and that number deserves attention.

BSL put Boise State in the unpublished bracket as the Group of Six representative and made them a 34% favorite in the new Pac-12, the shortest price in the league. The market has them as a three-and-a-half touchdown underdog in Eugene. Both things can be true — Boise can be the best of the non-power teams and still get run out of Autzen — but there is recent history here worth remembering. In 2025 Boise came into the year as the presumptive G6 favorite, went to Tampa in Week 1, and lost to South Florida 34-7. The non-competitiveness of that loss shaped how the Broncos were viewed for months.

Four G5 teams have made the playoff. Their average losing margin is three touchdowns. Boise’s task Saturday is not to win. It’s to avoid handing the committee a data point.

Oregon is BSL’s second-ranked team with the top defensive line in the country and the fifth-best staff, and Dante Moore is second in the quarterback rankings. Drew Mehringer’s first game as offensive coordinator.

Baylor vs. Auburn (3:30 PM, ABC, Mercedes-Benz Stadium) — Note the venue. This is a neutral-site kickoff game in Atlanta, not a trip to Jordan-Hare. Auburn is a 7-point favorite at 72.9%, with the highest total on the board at 59.5.

Auburn is a BSL higher-than-consensus call. Alex Golesh arrives from South Florida, DJ Durkin runs the defense, and Byrum Brown follows Golesh over from USF to play quarterback. That’s a coordinator, a head coach, and a starting quarterback all learning a new building at once. The bet is that Golesh’s offense travels.

Baylor has a regression argument running the other direction. The Bears fumbled 14 times and lost 12 of them. Their opponents fumbled 8 times and recovered 6. An 18.2% recovery rate on their own fumbles was the worst in FBS. Fumble recovery is close to random over a full season, and Baylor was on the wrong end of it about as thoroughly as a team can be. That should even out. It doesn’t mean the Bears are good.

These two met in Waco last September and Auburn won 38-24 behind 308 rushing yards.

Clemson at LSU (7:30 PM, ABC) — LSU is favored by 10.5 at 75.3%. The model is a bit lower than the number implies, though not dramatically.

Same matchup as last year’s opener, reversed. LSU won 17-10 in Death Valley in 2025, holding Clemson to 32 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Now it’s Baton Rouge, and almost everything else is different. Lane Kiffin is in his first year at LSU with Blake Baker running the defense and Sam Leavitt in from Arizona State at quarterback. Clemson has a new defensive coordinator in Tom Allen and a new offensive coordinator in Chad Morris.

Clemson entered 2025 with real hype and finished with two losses in three weeks. They enter 2026 unranked. That is a fast fall for a program that was a preseason top-five team a year ago, and this is the game that either starts the correction or confirms it.

One thing to keep in view: LSU’s schedule. SP+ ranks it 19th-toughest in the country, FPI has it 11th. Both are national ranks, and both say the Tigers will not get many soft weeks. BSL published LSU at 42% to make the playoff with an unpublished revision down to 40% after the FPI data arrived. The revision looks defensible.

UCLA at California (10:30 PM, ESPN) — California is a 1.5-point home favorite at 57.9%. This line moved. Earlier in the week the number had UCLA favored by 1.5 on the road, so it has crossed the three-point key number in the wrong direction for the Bruins.

Two first-year head coaches. Bob Chesney comes to UCLA from James Madison. Tosh Lupoi takes over at Cal after running Oregon’s defense. BSL flagged Cal as the ACC dark horse in the preview, and a Week 1 win over a Big Ten opponent, however modest that Big Ten opponent may be, would be a real start on that argument.

Kickoff is 10:30 Eastern, which means most of the audience for the closest game on Saturday’s board will be asleep for it.

Sunday, September 6

Washington State at Washington (4:00 PM, NBC) — The Huskies lay 21.5 with an 87.9% win probability. That gap is smaller than it looks but real: a three-touchdown favorite usually grades out in the low 90s, and ESPN is shaving a few points off. Rivalry games get shaved. Sometimes correctly.

Washington State is a member of the relaunched Pac-12, which now runs a seven-game round robin plus a flex week in Week 13. The Apple Cup survived the realignment. BSL has Washington 19th nationally at 22% to make the playoff, and has Washington State sixth in the new Pac-12 at 10%.

Louisville at Ole Miss (7:30 PM, ABC) — Ole Miss is a 6.5-point favorite at 73.6%, and this is the most interesting game of the weekend for anyone tracking BSL’s published positions, because two of them collide in it.

Louisville is a higher-than-consensus call. The case is specific. Isaac Brown averaged 8.75 yards per carry, first nationally by more than a full yard over second place. His backup Keyjuan Brown was third at 7.33. Edge rusher Clev Lubin carries the highest returning edge grade in FBS since 2024, with 110 pressures and a 24% win rate that led all P4 edges. That is a defensible foundation for a team most people have outside the top 20.

Ole Miss is the counterweight. The Rebels are ninth in the polls, BSL had them tenth at 40% to reach the playoff, and Pete Golding takes over from Lane Kiffin after running LSU’s defense. Trinidad Chambliss won his eligibility case in court and starts, and he is third in BSL’s quarterback rankings.

A Louisville win in Oxford would be the single most useful early result for the preview’s credibility. A comfortable Ole Miss win would put the Louisville call under real pressure by Week 2.

Wisconsin at Notre Dame (7:30 PM, NBC) — Notre Dame lays 20.5 at 94.3%.

The Irish carry BSL’s highest playoff probability in the entire preview at 78%, ahead of Ohio State. The supporting numbers are strong. Notre Dame returns 72% of its snaps, the most in the country. Its explosive play differential last season was +7.5%, best in FBS. The offensive line allowed 12 sacks and the team averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and that line is ranked first in BSL’s unit rankings with Joe Rudolph coaching it. Cornerback Leonard Moore has allowed 19 completions for a first down in his career, none of them while trailing, and four in his last eleven games.

The number to watch is health rather than performance. Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa was on modified activity in early August coming off a November ACL tear, and Marcus Freeman was hopeful he’d be available for the opener. That status is unconfirmed as of publication and worth checking before kickoff.

Notre Dame has no conference championship to fall back on. Every September result is a playoff résumé item whether it looks like one or not.

Monday, September 7

SMU at Florida State (7:30 PM, ESPN) — SMU is a 3-point road favorite. ESPN gives them a 51.5% chance to win. That is the widest model-versus-market gap on the entire board, and it closes the weekend.

A three-point road favorite normally projects somewhere in the high 50s. ESPN has this as a coin flip. Either the model sees something in Florida State that the market doesn’t, or it is discounting SMU’s road number. Worth flagging honestly: we do not know which, and it is a hunch rather than a finding to say the model is picking up on the Seminoles’ home environment.

Florida State beat New Mexico State 34-17 on August 29. That tells us the Seminoles took care of an FCS-adjacent opponent and not much else.

The relevant BSL context is that Florida State does not appear anywhere in the published ACC title odds. Miami 46, SMU 13, Louisville 13, Clemson 11, Virginia Tech 6, Pitt 4, field 7. The Seminoles are inside that 7% field. SMU sits third at 13% and is ranked 19th nationally. If FSU wins this game at home on Labor Day night, that field number gets revisited in Week 2, and we’ll say so.

What Week 0 Already Told Us

Three results from August 29 carry forward.

Virginia 34, NC State 8. Beau Pribula went 9-of-11 for 155 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 110 more on 15 carries, the first Virginia quarterback to hit 100 rushing yards in a game since Brennan Armstrong in 2022. The Cavaliers ran it 57 times for 258 yards, converted all four of their fourth downs, and put together a 23-play, 75-yard drive that consumed 12:15. NC State managed 168 total yards at 3.3 per play.

BSL has Virginia on the record as a lower-than-consensus team. That call looks worse than it did a week ago. The reasoning behind it was partly that Virginia returns 48,313 career snaps, the most in FBS, which is a roster built on accumulated age rather than accumulated talent. Saturday suggested the accumulated age is playing well. We’ll keep the position and keep testing it.

North Carolina 15, TCU 10 in Dublin. Billy Edwards Jr. threw for 232 yards with no touchdown passes, North Carolina lost two fumbles, and the Tar Heels won anyway because TCU took 11 penalties for 100 yards and went 1-for-5 on fourth down. TCU scored 10 in the first quarter and nothing after.

USC 42, San Jose State 26. Covered above.

The post 2026 College Football: Week 1 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The post 2026 College Football Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami — Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31) 7:30pm ET, ESPN

Line: Ohio State -9.5, O/U 40.5

These two historic programs don’t meet very often — this will be just the 6th time ever — but one of those was a game for the ages that ended with maybe the most controversial official’s call ever. The stakes are nearly as high for this one, and as the over-under suggests, it will likely be decided by the defenses.

The Buckeyes come in as the defending champs, experience that could come in handy. Their defense is ridiculously good, leading the nation in both points and yards surrendered per game. Even in their only loss in the Big Ten Championship Game they held the Indiana Hoosiers to just 13 points. There really aren’t many more superlatives you can add to that, and the Hurricanes will have their work cut out for them. Offensively they once again have the best receiving weapons in the country, Jeremiah Smith and the underrated Carnell Tate, and a solid dual-threat QB in Julian Sayin. Their running game isn’t special, but good enough to add balance. Their offensive line has been prone to inconsistency, and that could be a problem against a defensive front like Miami.

The Hurricanes’ formula is likely to be pretty pugilistic — play in a phone booth and shorten the game to limit the Buckeyes’ possessions. This worked in a 10-3 victory at Texas A&M a couple weeks ago, though the Aggies aren’t quite at OSU’s level. Miami will need Carson Beck to manage the game efficiently and avoid all costly mistakes, something he hasn’t done with great consistency. Getting the ball in the hands of electric true freshman Malachi Toney where he can create big plays is a must. RB Mark Fletcher will need to pound out yards the way he did on Miami’s decisive scoring drive against A&M to keep the Canes out of third-and-long situations. Defensively the plan is simple — exploit what’s been an occasionally suspect offensive line and get after the quarterback with one of the elite defensive fronts in the game, led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. If Sayin is uncomfortable all night, the Canes have a shot.

My Pick: I think Miami can keep this close early and maybe even jump out to a lead. Remember, last season the teams with the first round byes all came out flat and lost their games, so Ohio State will have to battle the effects of a long layoff. But I think by the second half the Buckeyes’ talent will take over. 

Ohio State win/cover

No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon — Orange Bowl (Jan. 1) Noon ET, ESPN

Line: Oregon -2.5, O/U 51.5

As the rankings and point spread suggest, this looks like the most evenly-matched game of the playoff so far.

The Red Raiders are led by their defense that ranked third in the nation in both major statistical categories — points and yards allowed per game. Importantly, at least for this matchup, they were the best in the country in rushing yards allowed — just 68.5 per game. They aren’t just good on that side of the ball, they’re plucky too — their 23 fumbles-forced also led the country. All-in-all, this is a fierce defense playing in a conference known for offense. Offensively Tech has a balanced attack and can move the ball well – their 480 yards of offense per game was fifth in the nation. They also get out to big leads, outscoring their opponents by 262 points in the first two quarters this season, which leads the country. They did struggle in their loss at Arizona State, but QB Behren Morton was out with an injury. Still, I imagine the Ducks will watch that film and maybe even call up their old OC Kenny Dillingham for tips.

Oregon has an explosive offense, led by the 13th best rushing offense in the country. They’ve got to find a way to get yards against Tech’s elite run defense. More importantly, QB Dante Moore needs to be able to keep the ball moving in the passing game — if there is a soft spot in the Tech defense, that is it. Stretching the field could open up things for the Ducks’ running attack. Defensively Oregon really let up in the second half of their first round game against James Madison. That’s not terribly concerning, as it happens sometimes when you have a 34-6 halftime lead against a lesser opponent. But there have been other times this season where they’ve had lapses in closer games (4th quarter at Penn State, most notably). They can’t afford to let their guard dow against the Red Raiders.

My Pick: I think Oregon is the more talented team on paper. Texas Tech feels like the more complete team to me. This is another game where I wonder if the team with the longer layoff, Texas Tech, struggles to get going after not playing since December 6. Watch out for special teams in this one too, where I give Texas Tech the edge.

Texas Tech win/cover

No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama — Rose Bowl (Jan. 1) 4pm ET, ESPN

Line: Indiana -7, O/U 47.5

These teams have never played before. Indiana is playing in the Rose Bowl game for the first time since 1968. There’s going to be a lot of talk about nostalgia and history, but this comes down to one thing — whether can Alabama score against Indiana’s elite defense.

The Tide offense has been very pass-heavy this season. Ty Simpson threw for 3,500 yards and 28 Tis the season, and WRs Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams are the best pair this side of Columbus, OH. But their running game offers little balance and their offensive line has ben leaky at times. Defensively the Tide have been very good, particularly up front, while the secondary has been prone to the occasional breakdown.

Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza leads a balanced Hoosier offense. moving the ball through the air will be necessary, so the O-line will need to give him time. Defensively the Hoosiers are outstanding, right behind Ohio State in the major categories. With Alabama not being a serious threat to run the ball, their focus will be on rushing the passer and defending against the big plays in the passing game. An underrated part of Simpson’s game is both his ability to extend plays and take off for sizable runs, so that’s something Indiana must guard against.

My Pick: Last season when Indiana made the playoff as an 11-1 at large team, it felt like they should have just been happy to be there. That’s no longer the case — Indiana is legit. Alabama reached its ceiling with their thrilling come-from-behind victory over Oklahoma. The road ends here, against an Indiana defense that will give the Crimson Tide all kinds of problems.

Indiana win/cover

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss — Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1) 8pm ET, ESPN

Line: Georgia -6.5, O/U 55.5

This is a rematch of what was a great back-and-forth game in October that Ole Miss led in the 4th Quarter before Georgia rattled off 17 unanswered points to get a 43-35 win in Athens. There will probably be a lot of talk about a guy who won’t even be in the stadium — former Rebels, and current LSU head coach Lane Kiffin. Don’t waste oxygen on him. Win or lose, the Rebels will be well-prepared for this rematch and his absence will have no bearing on the outcome.

Georgia’s offense is well-balanced and efficient. They’re good at sustaining long drives. In QB Gunner Stockton they have what feels like the second-coming of Stetson Bennett — unheralded recruit, bided his time as a backup, then took over when the bigger-name guy got injured and never looked back. Georgia’s defense has been prone to slow starts and strong finishes in some games this season. They came back to win at Tennessee and at home against Ole Miss, but fell at home against Alabama — all after giving up sizable early leads. While they locked down the opponent in the 4th Quarter in all three of those games, they really shouldn’t keep tempting fate like that.

The Rebels have been a great story this season, coaching drama notwithstanding. They are led by the dynamic Division II transfer QB Trinidad Chambliss. Leading rusher Kewan Lacy had to leave the first round game against Tulane with a shoulder injury. He is expected to play, but that will definitely be something to watch. The Rebels defense has been….well, serviceable enough to post 12 wins. They can, and have, been run on to a good extent (148 ypg). They are going to have to do better in that regard and force Georgia into 3rd-and-long, where their much more effective pass defense can get them off the field.

My Pick: This should be a great game. Like last time, expect Ole Miss to start fast. Georgia has not played since the SEC championship game (Dec. 6). Again, a question of rust and layoff. I expect a closer game than their first meeting.

Georgia win/Ole Miss cover

The post College Football 2025 – College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Who’s In?

Ohio State and Indiana finished ranked 1 and 2, respectively. When they meet in the Big Ten Championship Game it will strictly be for a conference banner and the #1 overall seed. The loser is very unlikely to drop out of the Top 4, so there really isn’t a great deal hinging on the outcome of this one. If you were to ask both teams what they really want most out of the game, it would almost certainly be no serious injuries.

Georgia is in a similar spot sitting at #3. They will play Alabama for the SEC Championship (again), but probably remain in the Top 4 even if they lose. The Tide have definitely had their number over the years, even without Nick Saban stalking the sideline, so winning this one would feel nice for the Bulldogs. But if you were to force them to choose between winning or emerging from the game healthy, I think they’d choose the latter.

#4 Texas Tech was the main beneficiary of Texas A&M’s loss. They now hold a spot for a first round bye and should keep it if they defeat BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game. Lose and they probably drop, but not all the way out of the playoff bracket. The Red Raiders defeated the Cougars 29-7 in Lubbock in November.

Oregon and Ole Miss also moved up after the Texas A&M loss to #5 and #6, respectively. At that spot the Ducks will be hosting one of Tulane/North Texas/James Madison on Dec 19th or 20th. The Rebels, who rightfully were not dropped after Lane Kiffin’s departure, will host one of Virginia/Tulane/North Texas on the 19th or 20th. More on how that might shake out later.

I need to give Texas A&M their own little section here. They dropped from #3 to #7 after their 27-17 loss to Texas, which also eliminated their chances to play for the SEC title. I’ve long assumed the Aggies deserved their high ranking after beating Notre Dame in South Bend in Week 3. Now I’m wondering if they are a low-key fraud. What else is on their resume besides that? Of the SEC teams they played, only one had a winning record in conference….Texas, a loss. Their best SEC win came against Missouri, a team that had exactly zero wins against opponents that finished with a winning record. Of the bottom five teams in the SEC standings, the Aggies played them all. Half of the SEC teams they played fired their coach. I think you get my point. Nonetheless, they should still end up hosting a game at home in the first round, even if they drop a spot. (see: Alabama)

Oklahoma held on to their #8 spot from last week. Right now they would host the #9 team at home. But that could change. While they are unlikely to move up, they could get bumped down and have to hit the road in the first round.

Alabama jumped Notre Dame from #10 to #9 after beating 5-win Auburn. Why? Apparently the committee was impressed that they went on the road and won a rivalry game where they were impressive in the 1st Half (much less so in the 2nd Half) and specifically praised the coaching staff for going for it on a 4th-and-goal in the 4th Qtr, with the game tied, instead of taking the field goal for a 3 point lead. Whatever. The Irish won convincingly at Stanford, but I guess it wasn’t enough, and if things break wrong for them Saturday they could get left out (again, more on that in a bit). As for Alabama, I have to believe if they lose to Georgia they won’t drop out of the playoff bracket. The big question is what happens if they win? How far should they move up? Ahead of Oklahoma, who defeated them couple weeks ago? Should they ascend all the way to the Top 4? They would have some great wins (Georgia twice, Vanderbilt and Tennessee). But the stench of that opening loss at Florida State….how much does that hurt?

Who Has Work To Do, Or Needs Help?

So #10 Notre Dame is now surprisingly in a precarious spot, and they need to root for the chalk to hold Saturday, especially in the Big 12. Obviously they can only get in as an at-large, and with two teams ranked well below them certain to get in as conference champions, they cannot fall below #10. But the bigger risk is if #11 BYU upsets Texas Tech. The Cougars automatically be  in the playoff as a conference champion, whether they jump Notre Dame in the final rankings or not. That’s why getting leap-frogged by Alabama was such a big deal. Now it’s possible that if Alabama loses to Georgia they would drop back down to the 10 spot, making the Tide a potential victim if BYU pulls the upset. But that would seem an odd move by the committee. The more I see how this whole rankings thing works, the more confused I get.

Since we touched on BYU already (they must win, or they have no chance) that leaves #12 Miami and #13 Texas as teams who will probably generate a lot of discussion, but have no realistic chance of moving into the field. The Hurricanes are simply the victim of an ACC tie-breaker process that left them out of the conference title game in favor of 7-5 Duke. So if Miami wants to do some lobbying, do it at the next conference meeting. Still, it’s pretty dumb that the best team by far in the conference can’t even play for the title. As for Texas….yeah, you have some great wins on your resume (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M). And no shame at all in that 7-point loss at Ohio State. The 25-point loss at Georgia is a bit unsightly, but it was losing to 4-win Florida is what truly sank your chances. Sorry, but you gotta take care of business against teams like that.

The ACC-mageddon scenario I’ve alluded to in the past has almost come to fruition. #17 Virginia will play Duke (again, 7-5) for the conference title. If the Cavs win, they are in. We have no idea where the committee would put Duke if they actually ranked every team in FBS, but safe to say it would not be ahead of the AAC champion, or #25 James Madison if they win the Sun Belt, and maybe not even ahead of UNLV if they win the Mountain West. So yeah, the ACC will most likely be left out if Virginia loses. Bad look.

The AAC Championship is a play-in game between #20 Tulane and #24 North Texas, with the winner getting the #12 seed if Virginia wins, or the #11 seed if Duke wins. #25 James Madison must defeat Troy, then hope for chaos in the ACC.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

Coaching Carousel

Too much activity to list it all here, but I have random thoughts on a couple things.

I’m not sure how much more there is to say about the Lane Kiffin situation that hasn’t already been said. I’ll just add my 2-cents:

• I understand why he thought LSU was a better job than Ole Miss, and respect his right to make that choice
• The timing stunk, and that’s not all his fault, but that he did leave Ole Miss just as they were officially set to be in the CFP will never stop being a bad look for him
• The belief that he should have been allowed to stay at Ole Miss to coach them in the CFP while also working for LSU is absurd, and Ole Miss made the right decision in telling him to pound sand when he tried to leverage them into letting him do it
• Yes, I know the coaches at Tulane (Jon Sumrall to Florida), North Texas (Eric Morris to Oklahoma State) and James Madison (Bob Chesney to UCLA) will be doing exactly that if their teams make it to the playoff. But I don’t believe that’s an apples to apples comparison. Their current teams do not compete against or recruit in the same waters as the teams those coaches will take over.
• People talk about feeling sorry for the Ole Miss players. Yeah, I’m sure this was a distraction and change they did not want. But I don’t think we need to take pity on them. Those players will rally around each other and maybe even have a chip on their shoulder to prove to everyone that they, and not Lane Kiffin, are the reason Ole Miss is in the playoff for the first time. The Rebels aren’t one of the favorites to win it all, with or without Kiffin, but they’ll be fine.
• Ok, that was more like 5-cents. Sue me.

No idea what is going on at Penn State. They fired James Franklin in October, presumably to get a jump on finding his replacement, and here we are in December and all we know for sure is BYU’s Kalani Sitake turned them down a couple days ago. Um….what have you been doing the past month-and-a-half??? James Franklin found himself another job weeks before you’ll get around to hiring his replacement, for crying out loud. The early signing period for high school players came and went, and only two players signed up for a team with no permanent head coach. Many who were committed have gone elsewhere, including several with Franklin at Virginia Tech. Latest word is they are interested in Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. I think that’d be an excellent choice. Why weren’t you on him weeks ago???

Games of the Week (With the Most CFP Impact)

#24 North Texas at #20 Tulane – 8pm ET (Friday), ABC, Line: North Texas -2.5, O/U 66.5

It’s green on green violence as the Mean Green take on the Green Wave. Both teams will part ways with their head coach after their seasons end. As the over/under indicates, this could be a high-scoring affair in a CFP play-in game. However, the weather in New Orleans currently calls for steady rain, which could be a factor in slowing down the more offense-reliant North Texas. That plus home field makes me lean underdog.

Pick: Tulane win/cover

#11 BYU vs #4 Texas Tech (Arlington, TX) – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Texas Tech -12.5, O/U 49.5

This is a rematch, first won by Texas Tech 29-7, and the game was even more lopsided than the score indicates. In the Cougars defense, leading rusher LJ Martin was hampered by a shoulder injury that day, and they uncharacteristically turned the ball over three times. So I expect a closer game, and unlike the Red Raiders this is do-or-die for BYU. Still, I don’t think it will be enough….Tech is simply the better team.

Pick: Texas Tech win/BYU cover

#9 Alabama vs #3 Georgia – 4:00pm ET, ABC, Line: Georgia -2.5, O/U 48.5

Georgia is just 1-7 against Alabama under Kirby Smart. You know the Bulldogs would love to start evening the ledger. But with no real CFP implications on the line for them I wonder just how focused and committed they’ll be. Alabama should know the result of the Big 12 game by kickoff, and if Texas Tech wins they can probably feel secure in knowing they’re still in if they lose this one. But I have a hunch they’d love to insert a bit of chaos into the rankings and force the committee to move them higher, to at least hosting a first round game in Tuscaloosa. And if BYU wins, they’re likely playing for their playoff lives.

Pick: Alabama win/cover

The post College Football 2025 – Where We Stand Headed Into Championship Weekend appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The Rankings

Ohio State and Indiana appear to be on a collision course to meet in the Big Ten Championship Game. If the chalk holds over the final two games, and given OSU’s recent history against Michigan that’s no sure thing, both teams should end up with a Top 4 seed no matter who wins the title game. If Michigan does win its 5th straight in the series, then it might be time to get out the tie-breaker list, as the Wolverines, Oregon and USC could still have a shot of playing for the Big Ten Championship.

Speaking of Oregon and USC, Saturday’s game at Eugene may essentially be a play-in game for the CFP. The winner will be well-positioned to at least garner an at-large bid. USC would most definitely be out if they pick up their third loss, and Oregon may also be cooked at just two losses but no wins over currently ranked teams to hang their hat on.

Texas A&M is in the driver’s seat in the SEC. They have a tune-up game this week against Samford before playing their first game in Austin in over a decade. As in the case of Michigan-Ohio State, upsets in these rivalry games are always on the table.

While Georgia holds the higher ranking, Alabama still has an edge over them in the SEC standings via the Tide’s head-to-head win. Georgia has the edge over Ole Miss for the same reason. Alabama and Ole Miss do not play this season. So it looks like it will be 4 teams in the mix for the two SEC Championship Game spots. One thing that appears certain is that preseason #1 Texas is toast (if they get in as a 3-loss team, let the ESPN/SEC playoff-rigging theories fly).

Texas Tech and BYU are currently on track to play for the Big 12 title, but a couple upsets could throw things into chaos. Utah, Houston, Cincinnati, and even banged-up defending champ Arizona State remain in the mix. If Cincinnati knocks off BYU Saturday night at home, get ready for a wild finish.

The ACC is a mess, and I’ll mostly leave it at that. Miami is still the highest-ranked and probably best team in the conference, but they are a long shot to get to the conference title game. The ACC-magedon narrative, in which the conference might get completely left out of the CFP because their champion would be ranked below two of the G5 conference champs, looks increasingly less-likely, but still isn’t completely out of the question.

As for the G5, the American race probably settles it all, but the teams at the top are beating each other up, so that doesn’t help in the CFP rankings and leaves an opening for another conference champion. This week it’s Tulane’s turn to be in the Top 25. James Madison from the Sun Belt remains in the mix, with San Diego State out of the Mountain West being a very long shot.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

1st Rd – Played at home field of highest ranked team

• #24 Tulane at #5 Texas Tech
• #13 Miami at #6 Ole Miss
• #10 Alabama at #7 Oregon
• #9 Notre Dame at #8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinals – Played at TBD bowl site

• Oregon/Texas Tech vs #1 Ohio State
• Notre Dame/BYU vs #2 Indiana
• Virginia/Ole Miss vs #3 Texas A&M
• Tulane/Texas Tech vs #4 Georgia

Coaching Watch List

Not only were there no coaches dismissed since our last writing, but one recently-fired coach already found new employment (James Franklin – Virginia Tech) and the top two on the previous list (Luke Fickell – Wisconsin and Mike Locksley – Maryland) were informed they will return in 2026.

1. Mike Norvell, Florida State – The 5-5 Seminoles have two winnable road games left, at NC State and Florida. Maybe a strong finish where they end up 8-5 saves Norvell’s job. Anything less and I suspect this will be another high-profile opening.
2. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State – The idea of moving on from a coach after just two seasons seems rough, but the Spartans have regressed after going 5-7 last year, and only a season-ending home date with lowly Maryland may save them from going 0-9 in conference. Since MSU isn’t paying former coach Mel Tucker, who was fired for cause, money may not be as big a factor here.
3. Shane Beamer, South Carolina – It’s not getting any better in Columbia after the Gamecocks completely collapsed last Saturday, blowing a 30-3 halftime lead at Texas A&M. Pulling off an upset of that magnitude could have ended any hot seat discussion for Beamer. Oh well. And with the Franklin hiring he’s no longer the sentimental choice to go back to his Virginia Tech roots.
4. Bill Belichick, North Carolina – Do the Giants turn to their past and bring Belichick back to the NFL? Does it matter? The college experiment has clearly failed and a mutual parting of the ways between BB and UNC feels inevitable.

Honorable Mention. Dave Aranda, Baylor – Since going 12-2 and winning the Big 12 title in 2021, the Bears are 22-26 under Aranda. If he’s let go, the SoCal native might be a candidate for the UCLA job.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Texas A&M
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Oklahoma
8. Oregon
9. Alabama
10. Notre Dame
11. Utah
12. Georgia Tech

Games of the Week

#22 Missouri at #8 Oklahoma – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Oklahoma -7.5, O/U 42.5

I’ll say it again….can someone look at Missouri’s schedule and tell me what they’ve done that is so special as to have them in the rankings? Is simply existing in the SEC worth that much? Now the Sooners best not look past this game or suffer a hangover from last week’s huge win at Alabama, but I don’t think they will.

Pick: Oklahoma win/cover

#15 USC at #7 Oregon – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -10.5, O/U 59.5

Believe it or not USC is actually well-positioned to claim an at-large playoff bid. A road win against the Ducks and a victory over cross-town rival UCLA the following week would give them a 10-2 record with wins against two currently-ranked teams (#18 Michigan being the other). Meanwhile their only two losses were both on the road, against #9 Notre Dame and #21 Illinois, by a combined total of 12 points. So yeah, that’s probably CFP-worthy. But when was the last time USC went on the road and won a season-defining game like this one? Yeah, I don’t think so either. I actually think the Ducks win this one by exactly 10, so the Trojans would at least cover.

Pick: Oregon win/USC cover

#11 BYU at Cincinnati – 8:00pm ET, FOX, Line: BYU -2.5, O/U 54.5

This was the biggest game I could find that did not include two ranked teams. This won’t be easy for BYU, and a loss likely throws the Big 12 standings deep into the tie-breaker weeds. But I think the Cougars will prevail.

Pick: BYU win/cover

The post College Football 2025 – Where We Stand Headed Into Week 13 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The CFP Rankings

Here are my random thoughts about the first rankings.

This is more predictive than resume-based, but I still like Texas A&M a little better than Indiana. But I get putting the Hoosiers ahead based on wins at Oregon and Iowa, versus the Aggies win at Notre Dame and an SEC schedule that so far is mostly lower tier teams.

While I won’t quibble too much over one spot, I like Texas Tech just a bit over BYU based on their record against one common opponent: Utah. The Red Raiders beat the Utes 34-10 in Salt Lake City, while the Cougars won 24-21 in Provo. Of course that score will ultimately be settled Saturday.

All in all, the Big 12 sure feels a lot stronger at the top this season than last year, with two teams in the Top 10 and three in the Top 13. Remember last year the eventual champion, Arizona State, didn’t even crack the Top 25 until the third set of rankings were released.

I agree with Oregon at #9 based on a relatively weak slate of wins, but I don’t think they should be punished too harshly based on what has happened to Penn State. The Lions team that took the field that night in Happy Valley is much different than what we’ve seen since then. I really do think the Ducks broke them.

Do we really believe Notre Dame deserves to be ranked as far ahead of Virginia and Louisville as they are? Or even ranked ahead of them at all? Louisville, who have 1-loss vs Notre Dame’s 2, did what the Irish couldn’t – defeat Miami in Miami. And of course the one team that has beaten the Cardinals is the Cavaliers. Are we really giving that much credit to Notre Dame over a 10-point win against USC? Please. At the very least, put the Cavs and Cards ahead of Texas and Oklahoma, a couple of mid SEC squads.

Interesting to see Iowa get some love while the AP poll has shunned them. They don’t have any good wins to hang their hat on, but narrow losses at Iowa State and to Indiana aren’t nothing.

While no Group of Five team cracked the initial rankings, I doubt that will be the case when the final rankings are released. At this point, it’s hard to see anyone other than the American champion getting the CFP bid. Maybe San Diego State has a long shot, but the Mountain West does not have any good wins out of conference this season and the Aztecs’ lone loss so far, to Washington State, is aging very poorly.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

1st Rd – Played at home field of highest ranked team

• G5 at #5 Georgia
• #14 Virginia at #6 Ole Miss
• #10 Notre Dame at #7 BYU
• #9 Oregon at #8 Texas Tech

Quarterfinals – Played at TBD bowl site

• Oregon/Texas Tech vs #1 Ohio State
• Notre Dame/BYU vs #2 Indiana
• Virginia/Ole Miss vs #3 Texas A&M
• G5/Georgia vs #4 Alabama

Coaching Watch List

Two more SEC schools will be searching for new coaches this cycle, as LSU and Auburn parted ways with Brian Kelly and Hugh Freeze, respectively. In LSU’s case, they also parted with AD Scott Woodward whose track record of coaching hires is….not great (he also gave Jimbo Fisher the deal that led to Texas A&M paying what is still the largest buyout in history). Woodward inspired so little confidence that the governor of Louisiana went on The Pat McAfee Show to state that he would have no role in hiring the next head coach, essentially firing the guy live on the air. Having the governor directly intervening into athletic affairs sure makes the vacant AD and head coaching positions at LSU look more appealing, doesn’t it?

1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – After being shut out for 11 consecutive quarters the Badgers put a touchdown on the board during garbage time in a loss at Oregon. That’s the good news. Seriously.

2. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – Can Maryland come up with the money to buy out Locksley’s remaining contract? Of equal concern is whether they can afford not to.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State – Norvell spared his job for at least another week with a blowout victory against Wake Forest that ended a 4-game losing streak and gave the Seminoles their first conference win of the season. Not exactly a reason to breath easy.

4. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State – The good news for the Spartans, winless in the Big Ten, is two of their final three games are against also-winless Penn State and quit-after-September Maryland. But is that really good enough?

Honorable Mention. Shane Beamer, South Carolina – The Gamecocks entered the season with high hopes, a #13 preseason ranking, and a Heisman hopeful in QB LaNorris Sellers. Now, barring a stunning upset at #3 Texas A&M in their next game, they won’t even be bowling.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Texas A&M
3. Indiana
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas Tech
8. BYU
9. Oregon
10. Utah
11. Virginia
12. Louisville

Games of the Week

#7 BYU at #8 Texas Tech – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Texas Tech -10.5, O/U 52.5

Here is your most likely preview of the Big 12 Championship Game – though Cincinnati might still have something to say about that. Having already been dealt a conference loss, this is a much more important game for Texas Tech than BYU, and it’s in Lubbock, so I like the Red Raiders….though laying 10.5 feels too generous.

Pick: Texas Tech win/BYU cover

#3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri – 3:30pm ET, ESPN, Line: Texas A&M -6.5, O/U 47.5

In my last article I didn’t think Missouri was the 15th best team in the country, and two weeks later I’m not sure they are deserving of 22nd either. But you know what? This feels like a trap game for A&M, coming off a huge blowout win at LSU and the hype of the #3 CFP ranking. Better watch out, Aggies, this game has the makings of a rock fight.

Pick: Texas A&M win/Missouri cover

#9 Oregon at #20 Iowa – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -6.5, O/U 40.5

Kinnick Stadium has long been a house of horrors for visiting Top 10 teams, and I’m not getting great vibes from Oregon after that Indiana loss. Yeah, they crossed the country and boat-raced Rutgers immediately after that, but then struggled against a game, but offensively anemic Wisconsin team the following week. Iowa remains who they have always been – a team that can really fluster opposing offenses with good defense, ball control, and field position. The Ducks persevered and eventually prevailed in that style of game at Penn State, but Iowa is a better team. I smell upset.

Pick: Iowa win/cover

The post College Football 2025 – Where We Stand Headed Into Week 11 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Let’s Catch Up

Week 8 saw four teams among the AP Top 10 fall.

Beginning with last Friday, then #2 Miami lost its first game of the season, 24-21 to a Louisville team that came into South Florida unranked. It was a mostly sloppy showing for the ‘Canes, low-lighted by four Carson Beck interceptions thrown and an anemic 2.6 yards per carry by a typically potent Miami running game. While the Cardinals are a good team and there is no shame in losing to them, it was a result that has often typified Mario Cristobal teams, where the execution doesn’t consistently match the talent. Fortunately for Miami, the 12-team playoff is a much more forgiving format for hiccups like this, but it does nothing to dispel the narrative that Cristobal’s teams fizzle as the season wears on.

What world are we living in? Vanderbilt went into a game as the betting favorite over #10 LSU. Yes, you read that correctly. Not only that, but ESPN’s win predictor had them as the likely winner through all 60 minutes. Following the 31-24 victory the Commodores got a nice little bump in the AP rankings from #17 to #10.

Top 10 Vanderbilt???? I know what you’re thinking – and yes, I do have the answer. The last time the Commodores were ranked in the AP Top 10 was October 13, 1947. What else was going on that day, you ask? Well, the US engaged in an experiment to seed a hurricane with dry ice in what was dubbed Project Cirrus, and….it didn’t go well, as the storm took an unexpected change in direction and made landfall in Georgia, causing significant damage. In lighter news from that day, the first ever NHL All Star Game was played, and rock legend Sammy Hagar was born.

As for the Tigers, their playoff hopes are on life support, with back-to-bak games against #3 Texas A&M and #4 Alabama up next. Looks like another disappointing season is in the cards for Brian Kelly in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss was dealt their first loss of the season at Georgia, a game in which their offense scored five touchdowns on their first five possessions, but then went dormant for the remainder of the game. The Rebels defense, on the other hand, failed to hold the Bulldogs scoreless on a single possession until the game-ending kneel-down. Luckily for the Rebels, they don’t face any potent offenses for the remainder of the season, so they still have solid playoff hopes.

As for the Bulldogs, they are now 2-1 in games against ranked opponents, and in each case their defense started out pretty poorly as they were forced to storm back against Tennessee and Ole Miss, while coming up just short against Alabama. The playoff and SEC title are still within their grasp, but they need to get off to better starts going forward.

Finally, Arizona State kept alive their hopes of returning to the playoff with a huge win over then #7 Texas Tech, 26-22. The return of QB Sam Leavitt for the Sun Devils after sitting out a loss at Utah due to injury made the difference. ASU is a much different team with him, and they will have to hope he stays healthy to get back in the Big 12 title game.

Meanwhile the Red Raiders will have a good chance to bounce back this week against lowly Oklahoma State, who are still searching for their first win against an FBS team. And while their fans are no doubt looking ahead to a huge showdown against #11 BYU in Lubbock on November 8, the team best not overlook what could be a tricky game at Kansas State the week before that.

Coaching Watch List

If you count the (dis)Honorable Mention, three more coaches from my last list joined the count of the unemployed. But don’t feel too bad for Billy Napier or James Franklin, as they are guaranteed to collect $21M and $45M, respectively. Trent Bray will only get $3.6M from Oregon State, so he may need to tighten his belt a bit. As always though, the coaching carousel proceeds on.

1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – The Badgers have been shut out in their last two games, both at home, and now head to #6 Oregon as a 33.5 point underdog. AD Chris McIntosh gave Fickell the dreaded vote of confidence, but when you look at the brutal schedule the Badgers still have ahead it’s really hard to envision this going on much longer.

2. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – That’s now three straight, and counting, blown 4th Quarter leads for the Terps following their 20-17 loss at UCLA. They also continue their trend of post-September futility. Since college football isn’t moving its season calendar to July thru September anytime soon, it seems Maryland will have to be the one to make a change to improve the situation at College Park.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State – It no longer feels like we’re talking about the same season when we refer to the Seminoles’ Week 1 domination of Alabama. Both teams have been on vastly different trajectories since then, but this is about FSU. I’m sure it’s never easy for an Eastern time zone team to travel to the West Coast and play a game that kicks off at 10:30pm ET, but the ‘Noles ugly loss at Stanford (their fourth straight) cannot be excused. FSU says it will wait until after the season before making any decision on Norvell’s status, but with his team now completely out of the playoff picture and simply battling for bowl eligibility, it doesn’t look good.

4. Hugh Freeze, Auburn – The SEC is an unforgivable gauntlet, and the Tigers’ four straight losses have all come against ranked opponents. Nonetheless, looking at the rest of the schedule a six win season would appear to be the likely best case. Auburn is no stranger to having multiple head coaches on its payroll – as of last season they were still paying Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin along with Freeze. Some things never change.

Honorable Mention: Bill Belichick, North Carolina – This has been a predictable train wreck almost since the day he was hired. There really isn’t much more to say.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Georgia Tech
7. Oregon
8. Miami
9. Vanderbilt
10. Ole Miss
11. BYU
12. Texas Tech

Games of the Week

#8 Ole Miss at #13 Oklahoma – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Oklahoma -4.5, O/U 54.5

After suffering a surprising first defeat against Texas, Oklahoma got right with a dominating 26-7 win at South Carolina. In his second game back following hand surgery, QB John Mateer had a better, though not spectacular, day than in his first game back against the Longhorns in which he threw 3 picks. But thanks to a stifling Sooner defense, it was plenty good enough.

Of course, I already talked about the recent struggles of Ole Miss’s defense. So I guess what I’m saying is, this looks like a perfect opportunity for the Sooner offense to really get on track.

Pick: Oklahoma win/cover

#15 Missouri at #10 Vanderbilt – 3:30pm ET, ESPN, Line: Vanderbilt -2.5, O/U 52.5

Based on their schedule, in which their most impressive result might be a 3-point loss at home to Alabama, I’m really not getting Top 15 vibes from Mizzou. With ESPN College Gameday in Nashville for this one, I like the home team.

Pick: Vanderbilt win/cover

#3 Texas A&M at #20 LSU – 7:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Texas A&M -2.5, O/U 48.5

The Aggies had to fend off a feisty Arkansas team in Fayetteville last week, pulling out a 45-42 win. The result doesn’t necessarily instill confidence in their chances going to Death Valley. Points will likely be hard to come by for A&M, and despite an anemic LSU offense it feels like this could be a very tight affair against a team fighting for their season and maybe their coach’s job.

Pick: LSU win/cover

The post College Football 2025 – Where We Stand Headed Into Week 9 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Let’s Catch Up

Week 6 was lighter on marquee matchups, but not on consequential results.

We’ll start with the lede, that being the teams with championship hopes entering the season that have crashed and burned. Clemson faded out of the picture from the get-go, so no need to go too deep into them other than mention that last week they further exposed what a farce the Bill Belichick Experiment at UNC has been so far. So the Tigers have that going for them at least.

Texas went to Gainesville to take on a reeling Florida team that is likely in a fight just to be bowl eligible, and took a 29-21 loss. Arch Manning had another mediocre showing, though he got no help from his line in the from of protection or a running game. The Gators were coming off three straight losses in which their defense played well enough to win, but couldn’t get enough out of QB DJ Lagway. But with their backs against the wall the sophomore turned in a solid performance. They’ll need it again this week, and in a much more hostile environment, as Florida heads to College Station to face #5 Texas A&M. As for the Longhorns, it feels like every game from here on is a must-win if they are to make the playoff, and that journey starts Saturday at Dallas against #6 Oklahoma. Arch Manning and a struggling OL against one of the top defenses in the country? We saw that in Week 1, and it didn’t end well for the ‘Horns.

Following a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to Oregon in their annual White Out game in Week 5, Penn State failed to respond in an embarrassing 42-37 loss to previously winless UCLA. The Lions fell behind 27-7 at halftime, and just couldn’t claw back before time expired. They still had a margin of error after the Oregon loss to get into the playoff, but that may have gone up in smoke. The Lions still have games at home against Indiana and at Ohio State remaining on the schedule. If they lose just one of those it becomes hard to imagine a 3-loss team, with one of those coming against the likes of UCLA, getting in.

Finally, in the biggest game of Week 6 Miami held on to defeat their rival, Florida State, 28-22. This game was another case study in why some, myself included, still have trouble declaring the Hurricanes a true title favorite despite clearly possessing the talent. For three quarters they looked unbeatable, holding a commanding 28-3 lead in a hostile environment. But then, as so often has been the case for Mario Cristobal-coached teams, they lost their edge and the Seminoles reeled off 19 4th Qtr points. How great was the threat of FSU actually pulling off an improbable comeback? Maybe not as much as the score might indicate, but if the Seminoles had simply got a lucky bounce on one of their three onside kick attempts, we could very easily be having a different conversation. Cristobal is who he is at this point, but it’s still a shock to see him continue to take his foot off the gas too soon, and apparently he has not learned how hard it is to regain momentum in those situations.

Coaching Watch List

Maybe it’s time for me to rename this the Coaching Reverse Jinx Watch List. After making the list for two weeks in a row, Virginia’s Tony Elliott went and got consecutive overtime wins at home against then-#8 Florida State and on the road at then-unbeaten Louisville. Now the Cavaliers find themselves ranked 19th in the AP. From the hot seat to Coach of the Year candidate. As much as we talk about the coaching carousel, you gotta love redemption stories like this. Well done, Coach Elliott.

1. Trent Bray, Oregon State – Two more frustrating, heart-breaking losses for the Beavers, in what they hoped would be a nice season with at least a bowl appearance. Now they are 0-6 and staring into an abyss. Within the last week their general manager resigned and the special teams coordinator was fired, but that feels like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic at this point. A complete tear-down feels both inevitable and necessary.

2. Billy Napier, Florida – Napier once again appears to have staved off termination. But there is still a feeling that it’s only postponing the inevitable when you look at the Gators’ still-brutal remaining schedule. The SEC is an absolute bloodbath this year, so if he can somehow get the four more wins needed for bowl eligibility maybe that will, and should, be enough for one more year. But the standards and expectations at Florida are much higher than 6-6.

3. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – After the brutal loss at home to Maryland and a bye, the Badgers hit the road and played valiantly against Michigan. But the result was the same….an anemic offense gave them little chance. Unfortunately for Fickell the schedule does not get any friendlier, and a winless conference record might not be out of the question if Wisconsin can’t generate some offense.

4. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – I know the Terps are currently 4-1, and expectations at Maryland aren’t especially high, but the Terrapins now have a very well-established pattern of post-September futility. Not counting the COVID season, under Locksley they are 21-5 in Aug-Sep, and 10-29 in Oct-Dec. That didn’t change course last Saturday, as they blew a 20-point, late 3rd Qtr lead to Washington and fell 24-20. Inexplicably, it also dropped Locksley to 0-8 at Maryland following a bye. With a recently-hired AD on board, Maryland might deem it time to make a change if the team doesn’t reverse the trend.

Honorable Mention. James Franklin, Penn State – Credit Franklin for not hiding from the truth following the loss to Oregon, which dropped his record against Top 6 teams to 4-21. He acknowledged the narrative he doesn’t win big games is real and factual, and until he starts flipping that stat it won’t go away. But then came the inexcusable UCLA debacle. Penn State would owe him $50M if it fired him after the season. That’s a lot to swallow for a coach who has won over 70% of his games and got the team to the CFP semifinals last year. But it’s fair to wonder how much longer simply being on the doorstep will be enough for PSU.

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Miami
3. Oregon
4. Texas A&M
5. Oklahoma
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas Tech
8. Alabama
9. Indiana
10. Georgia
11. Georgia Tech
12. LSU

Games of the Week

#1 Ohio State at #17 Illinois – Noon ET, FOX, Line: Ohio State -14.5, O/U 49.5

I’m having a hard time seeing how the Illini will score enough points on the Buckeye defense, which is #1 in FBS in points allowed (5.0 pg) and #3 in yards allowed (215.8 pg). And while 14.5 points sounds like a lot for even the top-ranked team to lay on the road against a ranked opponent, OSU won by 18 two weeks ago against a tougher opponent (Washington) in a tougher venue.

Pick: Ohio State win/cover

#8 Alabama at #14 Missouri – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Alabama -3.5, O/U 51.5

The Tide have righted the ship after that opening loss at FSU, having beaten two straight ranked SEC opponents (Georgia and Vanderbilt). I’m still concerned with their running numbers, both offensively and defensively. But they should be fine against a Missouri team that has yet to face a ranked opponent.

Pick: Alabama win/cover

Indiana at Oregon – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -7.5, O/U 55.5

This is the Hoosiers’ big chance to prove they are different than last year’s team that took advantage of a friendly schedule to make it to the playoff. They don’t necessarily have to win, but if they can go to Eugene and cover then I’ll believe they are a legitimate Top 10 team. The matchup features two potential 1st Round NFL QBs in Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore, but I’ll be watching the defenses in this one. Both are Top 10 in FBS in points and yards allowed. Very evenly matched, well-coached teams. Turnovers and Indiana’s ability to execute its offense in a very loud environment feel like the keys to this game.

Pick: Oregon win/Indiana cover

Article courtesy of Certified Home Remodelers – “Considering a renovation or addition to your home in Maryland, or looking to build a custom home? Certified Home Remodelers provides Marylanders with decades of trusted experience and a 5 star reputation.”

The post College Football 2025 – Where We Stand Headed Into Week 7 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.