Quick Hits

Auburn 27, Georgia 24. We moved Georgia to No. 1 a week ago and wrote that the gap to Alabama was small. Both of them lost. Georgia led 14-0, then Auburn scored the next 24 points, and Alex McPherson kicked a 34-yard field goal as time expired. Byrum Brown ran for 115 yards on 26 carries and threw a touchdown pass, and Auburn outrushed Georgia 192-113. Gunner Stockton tied the game with a 94-yard drive in the fourth quarter, then lost a fumble at the Auburn 46 with 58 seconds left, and a roughing-the-passer penalty helped set up the winning kick. Stockton also threw two interceptions, doubling his season total. Georgia committed three personal fouls, played without KJ Bolden, and got 19 yards on nine carries from Nate Frazier in his return from a rib injury.

The loss ended Georgia’s 53-game winning streak against unranked teams. According to the AP, it was the first time since October 1990 that the No. 1 team lost in consecutive weeks, and ESPN notes that Texas and Georgia are the first No. 1 teams to lose on the final play in consecutive weeks. Auburn was a 20-point underdog.

BYU 28, Notre Dame 24. We said 12.5 points was a few too many at night in Provo and took BYU. We did not say BYU would win. Bear Bachmeier ran for two touchdowns, caught another and threw the winner, a 6-yard pass to Walker Lyons with 1:47 left. Notre Dame drove to the BYU 9 with four seconds left, and CJ Carr’s last pass fell incomplete in the end zone. The Irish also fumbled away a scoring chance at the BYU 5 before halftime when Carr lost the ball trying to spike it, only their second turnover of the season. According to the AP, Bachmeier is the first quarterback since Steve Young in the 1983 Holiday Bowl with a passing, rushing and receiving touchdown in the same game. It was BYU’s first win over Notre Dame since 2004 and its first over a top-10 team since 2018, and it came without LJ Martin.

Ohio State 19, Indiana 15. We picked Ohio State to win and Indiana to cover four points. Ohio State won by four. Julian Sayin hit Jeremiah Smith for a 38-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1 early in the fourth quarter for a 19-7 lead, then left with an injured right arm. Ryan Day says he will miss several weeks. Josh Hoover, back from an arm injury of his own, brought Indiana within four, and with 1:02 left he found Nick Marsh wide open at the front corner of the end zone. Marsh’s left foot came down on the white paint. The loss ended Indiana’s 22-game winning streak and was Curt Cignetti’s first home loss in three seasons. Indiana had lost no fumbles in 1,487 snaps since the start of 2025, and it lost two early in the third quarter. Freshman Luke Fahey finished the game for Ohio State and threw two incomplete passes.

Tennessee 26, Alabama 10. We had Alabama by 10. DeSean Bishop ran for 159 yards and two touchdowns, and Tennessee held Alabama to 201 yards, 54 of them on the ground, and 2 of 13 on third down. Alabama turned it over four times. Keelon Russell threw for 147 yards and two interceptions, and Ryan Coleman-Williams did not play. The Tide had 93 yards in the first half, and Tennessee’s last touchdown drive took 9:32 off the fourth-quarter clock. Alabama has lost consecutive regular-season games for the first time since 2007.

Florida 27, Texas 24. Last week we wrote that Texas had no loss left to give. It then lost at home to a Florida team starting its backup quarterback. Tramell Jones Jr., in for the injured Aaron Philo, threw two touchdown passes to Lacota Dippre, and Jadan Baugh’s 11-yard run gave Florida the lead in the fourth quarter. Texas had led 17-3 in the second quarter. Florida’s defense, last in the SEC coming in, held Texas under 300 yards and sacked Arch Manning five times, the last one forcing a fumble on the Longhorns’ final possession. Edge rusher Colin Simmons left in the fourth quarter with an apparent ankle injury. CBS notes that Texas is the first top-10 team since 2003 to blow a double-digit lead to an unranked opponent in consecutive weeks, and Steve Sarkisian said afterward that everything would be evaluated, including the play-calling. It was Florida’s first road win over a top-10 team since 2012, and CBS notes it ended Manning’s streak of 11 straight home wins as a starter.

Miami 43, Florida State 35, in double overtime. Miami is one of five unbeaten teams left in the power conferences, and it very nearly was not. Darian Mensah threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns, the last a 3-yarder to Malachi Toney in the second overtime. Toney caught 11 passes for 154 yards and threw the two-point conversion. Florida State had a 36-yard completion on fourth-and-21 called back for holding, and the game ended on Bryce Fitzgerald’s interception in the end zone, which held up on review. Mike Norvell disputed both calls. Mensah threw his first interception at Miami after 153 attempts without one.

LSU 31, Mississippi State 0. We held Mississippi State at 19 last week on the belief that Kamario Taylor was hurt, and wrote, “This is where we find out.” We found out. Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell did not play, Parker Puckett made his first start, and LSU shut the Bulldogs out. Mississippi State drove inside the LSU 40 five times and came away empty on fourth down every time. Sam Leavitt completed 31 of 38 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns, his first turnover-free game of the season, and it was LSU’s first shutout of an SEC opponent since 2007. Mississippi State has lost two straight, each by more than 30 points. ESPN’s view is that the game was too lopsided for Taylor’s absence to explain it. We took Mississippi State and the points and the over. Both were wrong.

Houston 35, Oklahoma State 32. Last week we wrote that the winner would have a case for our playoff table. Conner Weigman threw for 343 yards and five touchdowns, and Houston led 14-3 at halftime before the teams combined for 50 points in the second half. Oklahoma State got within three with 4:54 left, and Houston ran out the clock on an 18-yard catch by Trent Walker on third-and-7 and a Weigman run for a first down. Houston is 6-1, and its only loss is the failed two-point try at Texas Tech. We had Houston covering 3.5. It won by three.

Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13. Kentucky is tied with Georgia for the SEC lead. The Wildcats trailed 13-7 late in the third quarter before Ty Bryant’s first of two interceptions set up Kenny Minchey’s 12-yard touchdown pass to Willie Hernandez. Kentucky intercepted John Mateer three times and Oklahoma’s holder once, on a fake field goal that Jordan Castell picked off in the end zone. Castell’s 41-yard interception return sealed it. Kentucky gained 230 yards and won anyway, its fifth straight win under Will Stein.

Ole Miss 31, Missouri 3. Trinidad Chambliss threw three touchdown passes and ran for another, and Kewan Lacy ran for 122 yards and Makhi Frazier for 101. Missouri’s Jamal Roberts came in off two straight 200-yard games and ran for 39 yards on 20 carries, and the Tigers finished with 39 rushing yards as a team. Missouri had first-and-goal at the Ole Miss 2 and came away with nothing after Blake Craig missed a 23-yard field goal. Austin Simmons threw for 339 yards in his return to Oxford.

The rest of the ranked teams. UCLA beat Wisconsin 17-7 with Ty Dieffenbach throwing for 264 yards in his first start; Iamaleava did not play. Texas Tech led Arizona State 43-10 at halftime and won 53-25, with J’Koby Williams running for 165 yards on 11 carries. Utah, a 15-point favorite, held on 27-24 at Colorado. Oregon beat Nebraska 17-14 when Dylan Raiola came off the bench and threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to Jamari Johnson with 28 seconds left; Dante Moore is still out with a concussion. Wake Forest won 41-7 at Cal, SMU beat Virginia by 10 and Northwestern won 24-21 at Michigan State. North Carolina won 24-20 at Duke on Jaylen McGill’s 24-yard run with 1:53 left, and Pitt lost 27-21 at Boston College with true freshman Corey Dailey making his first start. New Mexico beat Hawaii 21-10, and James Madison beat Georgia State 49-22 to go to 7-0. Michigan benched Bryce Underwood for Tommy Carr and beat Penn State 21-18, and Penn State is 3-4 and 0-4 in the Big Ten. Iowa, USC and Boise State were off.

Power Rankings

Miami moves up two, to No. 1. The Hurricanes are 6-0 and the only one of last week’s top three that won. We are not moving them for how they played on Saturday, when a 3-4 Florida State team took them to a second overtime at home. We are moving them because the two teams ahead of them lost and Miami did not. ESPN’s committee projection also has Miami first, while pointing out that it still lacks a statement win. Its best wins are at Wake Forest and at Clemson, and FPI gives it a 94.8 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, the highest in the country. Miami goes to Notre Dame on November 7th.

Ohio State holds at No. 2. The Buckeyes won at a top-five team, and FPI and SP+ both now rate them first in the country. The question is Sayin. We are not moving Ohio State down for an injury to a quarterback who is expected back in weeks, but it makes the next two games, at USC on October 31st and at home against Oregon on November 7th, harder than they looked a week ago. If the Buckeyes lose one of them, we will move them then. Fahey, a freshman, was 9 of 11 for 203 yards and two touchdowns in mop-up time against Ball State and Kent State. CBS points out that Ohio State’s defense is allowing 13.4 points a game, which is the best argument that it can win with a game manager at quarterback. Both FPI and CBS’s projections give Ohio State about a 90 percent chance of making the playoff.

BYU moves up six. BYU beat Notre Dame without its leading rusher, and ESPN calls it the best win of any team in its top five. We move the Cougars past Georgia, who lost at home to an unranked team, and past Notre Dame, whom they just beat. We keep them behind Ohio State, which won at a top-five team on the road and which both models rate first; FPI has BYU 14th and SP+ ninth. SP+’s résumé ranking agrees with our order at the top, with BYU sixth, one spot behind Ohio State and two ahead of Georgia. BYU stays ahead of Utah, as we said it would, until they play on November 7th.

Georgia drops three. A home loss to a 4-2 Auburn team that was a 20-point underdog is a worse loss than any team above Georgia has. We keep the Bulldogs ahead of Notre Dame because they have two wins that still hold up, 41-13 over the Oklahoma team that beat Texas and at Alabama, and because FPI still rates them third and SP+ second. Georgia has an off week, then plays Florida, goes to Ole Miss and hosts Missouri.

Notre Dame drops one. Losing on the final play, on the road, to an unbeaten top-10 team is the kind of loss the committee forgives, and ESPN calls it a good loss in that room. It costs one spot. The problem for the Irish is what is left to make up for it. They have no conference title game, and ESPN notes their only wins over power-conference teams with winning records are Wisconsin and at North Carolina. Miami comes to South Bend on November 7th.

Texas Tech moves up two. The Red Raiders are 6-0 and led Arizona State 43-10 at halftime, and the AP notes they are 18-2 since the start of last season. They move past Indiana, which lost. SP+ moved them up three spots, to seventh. ESPN still has them 12th in its committee projection, and bumped out of its bracket by Boise State, because their best win is Houston and Will Hammond has six touchdown passes and five interceptions. We have them sixth because they have not lost and because Saturday was the first time all year they looked like the reigning Big 12 champion.

Utah moves up two. Utah won 27-24 at a 2-4 Colorado team as a 15-point favorite. That does not earn a move on its own; the Utes move because Georgia, Alabama and Texas fell past them. The AP notes that Utah’s 12 straight wins are now the longest active streak in the country. ESPN notes that it has not beaten a team with a winning record, and SP+ dropped the Utes three spots to 10th and has their schedule 116th of 138. Houston, on Saturday, is the first chance.

UCLA moves up two. The Bruins are 6-0 and the last unbeaten team in the Big Ten or SEC, and they won on Saturday with their backup quarterback. Dieffenbach completed 22 of 33 passes, and UCLA held Wisconsin to 66 passing yards. We keep them behind Utah because they have not scored more than 17 points in either of their last two games, which ESPN also flags. SP+ is split on them: it rates them 19th, but its résumé ranking has them fourth. Michigan State, Nevada, Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan come before USC.

Ole Miss moves up two. The Rebels beat a team ranked 13th by 28 points and ran for 257 yards. ESPN’s committee projection has them seventh, with wins over LSU and Missouri that it calls statement wins. The 24-point loss at Florida is still on the résumé, and Ole Miss still has Texas, Georgia, Auburn and Oklahoma to play.

Tennessee moves up three. The Vols held Alabama scoreless for three quarters, forced four turnovers and won by 16. Their only loss is to Texas, and they have won three straight. ESPN notes that their schedule otherwise has been thin, with wins over an FCS team and a 1-5 Kennesaw State. Kentucky comes to Knoxville on November 7th.

Why Tennessee is ahead of Texas. Texas beat Tennessee in Knoxville, and we have Tennessee six spots ahead. That game was close, and Texas nearly lost it. Since then Texas has lost to Oklahoma and Florida, and Tennessee has won three straight, including Saturday’s 16-point win over Alabama. Tennessee is 6-1, and its one loss is to Texas. Texas is 4-2. The committee uses head-to-head results to separate teams with comparable records, and ESPN’s view this week is that two losses against one no longer qualifies. We are ranking the better team today, and we think that is Tennessee.

Alabama drops seven. Two straight losses, the second by 16 with 201 yards of offense and four turnovers. Both losses are to top-11 teams in our ranking, and the Tide stay ahead of Kentucky because they beat the Wildcats by 28 in Lexington. A margin that large outweighs the one game between them in the standings. The win by 33 at Mississippi State also still stands. FPI still rates Alabama sixth and gives it a 49.4 percent chance of making the playoff, and SP+, which dropped it four spots, has it 12th with the eighth-hardest schedule in the country. Texas A&M comes to Tuscaloosa on Saturday.

Kentucky moves up three. The Wildcats won at Oklahoma and are tied with Georgia for the SEC lead at 4-1. They have won five straight, three of them on the road in the league, and ESPN’s committee projection has them ninth on schedule strength. They are 13th here, one spot behind Alabama, because Alabama beat them 45-17 in Lexington and because their last three wins came by one, one and eight points. SP+ rates them 45th and Alabama 12th. Vanderbilt is next.

Houston enters at 14. The Cougars are 6-1, have won four straight and beat a ranked team for the first time this season. Their loss is by a failed two-point conversion at Texas Tech. We put them behind Alabama because their best wins, Oklahoma State and at Kansas State, are not as good as Alabama’s. SP+ rates them 18th. They go to Utah on Saturday.

Texas drops 11. That matches the biggest drop we have made this season. The Longhorns have lost two straight to unranked teams, and the problem is the one we have written about all year. CBS has Texas at 3.66 yards a carry coming into Saturday, 117th in the country, with the worst three-and-out rate in the SEC, and the AP wrote that Manning has struggled for four straight games. We do not drop them further because they still have the two best wins of any two-loss team, over Ohio State and at Tennessee, and because FPI still rates them seventh and SP+ eighth, with the second-hardest schedule in the country. Ole Miss comes to Austin on Saturday.

Why Ohio State stays ahead of Texas. We explained this last week and said the order would change if Ohio State lost at Indiana. It did not, and Texas lost again. Ohio State is 6-1 and Texas is 4-2. ESPN’s committee projection makes the same point we did: with Texas at two losses, the committee would no longer use the head-to-head to break a tie, because the records are no longer comparable.

Wake Forest enters at 19. The Demon Deacons are 6-1, their only loss is to Miami, and they won 41-7 at Cal. FPI rates them 16th, SP+ moved them up 15 spots to 20th, and FPI gives them a 40.0 percent chance of making the playoff, mostly as the likely ACC runner-up. They are off this week.

Boise State enters at 20. The Broncos were off. They come in because Missouri lost by 28 and falls out, and because FPI rates Boise about even with Missouri on a neutral field, 30th to 27th. Boise has one loss, by seven at Oregon, and has won five straight, including at Fresno State and by 25 over Western Michigan, the MAC favorite. Missouri has the better win, over Florida, and that made this close. The two SP+ numbers split the same way we did: SP+ rates Missouri about four points better, but its résumé ranking has Boise 19th and Missouri 34th. It goes to Washington State on Saturday.

Missouri, Mississippi State and Nebraska leave the ranking. Missouri lost 31-3 at Ole Miss and ran for 39 yards, and it now has two losses to Boise State’s one. Mississippi State has lost its last two by a combined 64 points, and we are no longer willing to rank the Bulldogs on the strength of a quarterback who has not played. Nebraska has lost two straight after leading in the fourth quarter of both.

Indiana holds at seven after a four-point loss to the No. 2 team: Texas Tech passed it, but Alabama and Texas fell from above it to below it. Iowa holds at 15 and USC moves up one to 16; both were off. LSU holds at 18 after its shutout. Texas dropped in above it, and both of LSU’s losses are to teams ahead of it here, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Missouri is the first team out, ahead of Florida, which it beat by 28. Florida has wins over Texas and Ole Miss, but it also lost by 19 to South Carolina before Saturday. It is off this week, then plays Georgia in Atlanta, and CBS points out that after that it has Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State, a path to 10 wins. Oregon, SMU, Northwestern and James Madison are the rest of the next group.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 7 AP poll has BYU first, then Miami, Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana, Ole Miss and Texas Tech. It has UCLA ninth, Tennessee 10th, Utah 11th and Alabama 12th, brings Florida back in at 18 and drops Texas to 19. It also projects Oregon back in at 25 and drops Mississippi State and Oklahoma State. The real poll was not out at press time.

The real post-Week 6 AP poll did come out after we published last week, and it differed from the CBS projection we used on our board. The AP had Ohio State fourth and Texas seventh, the order we argued for, where the projection had Texas fourth and Ohio State fifth. It also had Indiana fifth, Alabama sixth, Mississippi State 16th and LSU 22nd. Our board used the projection’s rankings, labeled as such.

ESPN’s committee projection goes Miami, Ohio State, BYU, Notre Dame, Indiana, Georgia, Ole Miss, UCLA, Kentucky, Tennessee, Utah and Texas Tech, with Boise State taking Texas Tech’s bracket spot as the top Group of Six team. Its byes go to Miami, Ohio State, BYU and Notre Dame. The first real committee ranking comes out November 3rd.

CBS’s bowl projection seeds Miami, Georgia, Ohio State and BYU in the top four, then Indiana, Tennessee, Ole Miss, UCLA, Alabama, Kentucky and Notre Dame, with Oregon State in the 12th spot as the top Group of Six team. That makes three outside projections with three different Group of Six teams: ESPN has Boise State, CBS has Oregon State, and FPI’s playoff odds now favor James Madison. CBS also has Alabama in its field and Texas Tech out of it, and it has Notre Dame 11th. None of the three outside projections has Texas in its twelve.

We differ from ESPN and the poll projection in three places. We have Georgia fourth, ahead of Notre Dame and Indiana, where ESPN has the Bulldogs sixth; we give more weight to the win in Tuscaloosa than ESPN does, and CBS’s bowl projection goes further than we do and seeds Georgia second. We have Texas Tech sixth and in our twelve, where ESPN has it 12th and out of the bracket, for the second straight week. And we have Tennessee ahead of Kentucky, where ESPN has Kentucky ahead on schedule strength.

FPI’s October 18th run has Ohio State first, then Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Indiana, Alabama and Texas. That is our top seven with BYU and Texas Tech swapped out for Alabama and Texas. FPI has LSU eighth, Texas Tech ninth and Oregon 10th, and it is lower than us on the three teams that have won the most this year without being highly rated: BYU 14th, Kentucky 26th and UCLA 31st. As we said last week, FPI is a rating of how good a team is likely to be from here, and we give more weight to the results a team already has.

SP+’s October 18th run also has Ohio State first, then Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame and Indiana, and it is closer to FPI than to us. It has LSU sixth, Texas Tech seventh, Texas eighth, BYU ninth and Utah 10th, and it dropped Alabama four spots to 12th. It moved Wake Forest up 15 spots to 20th and James Madison up 12 to 28th. It is well below us on Kentucky, at 45th, and on UCLA, at 19th. It has Missouri 21st and Boise State 37th, the opposite of our order at No. 20, and for a third straight week it rates Nebraska, at 16th, higher than we do. Its résumé ranking, which grades what each team has done against its schedule, goes Miami, Notre Dame, Utah, UCLA, Ohio State, BYU, Texas Tech, Georgia, Indiana and Tennessee, with James Madison 11th and Boise State 19th. It has Texas’s schedule second-hardest in the country and Alabama’s eighth.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, and the Change column is against August. The week-over-week moves are large. Alabama and Texas each lose 24 points, matching the biggest cut we have made this season. Alabama falls to 50 with two losses and Georgia holding the tiebreaker over it, and Texas falls to 40 with Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play. ESPN points out that a year ago Alabama made the field with three losses and Texas missed it at 9-3, which is about where each of them stands now. CBS’s projections give Texas a 43 percent chance of making the field, and FPI 41.2. CBS had Texas in its bowl projection a week ago and has it out now.

BYU gains 24 points, to 66, for what ESPN calls the best win of any team in its top five. Tennessee gains 20, to 44, for beating Alabama by 16. Ole Miss and Kentucky each gain 14 and UCLA gains 12, all three for winning on a day when the teams above them lost. Texas Tech gains eight, LSU six, and Miami and Ohio State four apiece. Ohio State’s gain would have been larger with Sayin healthy. Utah gains two for a win that was closer than it should have been.

Georgia and Notre Dame each give back 12. Georgia’s loss was at home to an unranked team, but it still holds the tiebreaker over Alabama and has Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri left to make up for it. Notre Dame has no conference title game to fall back on and has Miami still to play. Indiana gives back four, the same Alabama gave back a week ago for a close loss to a top-two team. Missouri loses 14 and falls into the field.

Houston joins the table at 24, as we said the winner of its game would, and Wake Forest joins at 18. Missouri, Nebraska and Mississippi State fall into the field. The field drops from 1.80 to 1.54, because Houston and Wake Forest left it for the table and because Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Pitt all lost. It now holds Oregon, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Northwestern, Wisconsin, SMU and Pitt. The Group of Six holds at 1.12. Boise State is 20th in our ranking now, but its chance stays in that line rather than getting a row of its own, so the line can still be compared with August. The next section explains how the line divides.

The Group of Six Race

One playoff spot goes to the highest-ranked conference champion outside the power conferences, and it no longer has a clear favorite. ESPN’s committee projection gives it to Boise State, CBS’s bowl projection gives it to Oregon State, and FPI’s playoff odds now favor James Madison. Here is how the candidates compare.

Records against ranked teams count teams ranked when the game was played. FPI and SP+ ranks are from each system’s October 18th run, résumé SP+ grades what each team has done against its schedule, and each playoff number is FPI’s estimate of that team’s chance of making the 12-team field.

Who is best. The models disagree. FPI rates Boise State about four points better than James Madison or New Mexico on a neutral field. SP+ goes the other way, with James Madison 28th, New Mexico 30th and Boise 37th, about three points behind the Dukes, and résumé SP+ has James Madison 11th and Boise 19th. We have Boise in our twenty because its only loss was by seven at Oregon and because it has the best wins in the group, by 25 over Western Michigan and at Fresno State. It is closer than one system alone would suggest. UTSA is not close in either: 77th in FPI and 69th in SP+.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. James Madison, narrowly, and only because of its record. The Dukes are 7-0, FPI gives them a 39.4 percent chance of winning out to Boise’s 30.8, and the committee rewards an unbeaten champion. The case against them is the schedule. They have not played a ranked team, SP+ has their schedule 127th of 138, and the next Sun Belt team in FPI is 76th.

Who else. New Mexico is 5-1, its only loss is 14-6 at Oklahoma, and it hosts North Dakota State on Saturday night in the Mountain West’s biggest game. Oregon State leads the Pac-12 at 3-0 and is the team CBS projects into the field, but it has two losses and FPI gives it a 3.0 percent chance. UTSA leads the American at 3-0 and is 6-1, but FPI rates it 77th, and it would need the teams above it to lose. Liberty is 2-0 in Conference USA, behind Jacksonville State at 3-0, and is 64th in FPI, though it has a 67.6 percent chance of winning the league.

We put Boise State’s share of our 1.12 at about 36 percent and James Madison’s a little higher, with the rest spread among New Mexico, Oregon State, UTSA and the others. This week James Madison plays at App State on Thursday, Boise goes to Washington State, UTSA goes to Tulane, and New Mexico hosts North Dakota State.

Conference Projections

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of winning its conference.

ACC. Miami 73, Wake Forest 11 (up 2), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 2 (down 1), Duke 1 (down 2), field 3 (up 1). Miami won and holds; nothing about a double-overtime win over a 3-4 team argues for raising it. Wake Forest moves up after its 34-point win at Cal. Duke has lost two straight, to Georgia Tech and now North Carolina, both on touchdowns inside the last two minutes, and ESPN calls the defending champions just another mediocre ACC team. Pitt lost at Boston College, its second straight loss since Mason Heintschel’s injury. North Carolina, now 2-1 in the league, is why the field grows. FPI has Miami at 79.6 percent and Wake Forest at 13.7.

SEC. Georgia 40 (down 6), Ole Miss 13 (up 8), Tennessee 12 (up 10), Kentucky 10 (up 7), Alabama 9 (down 11), LSU 5 (up 3), Texas 4 (down 10), Missouri 2 (down 2), Florida 2 (new), field 3 (up 1). Oklahoma and Mississippi State fall into the field with Texas A&M and Auburn. Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss each have one league loss, and Georgia’s tiebreaker over Alabama matters less now that Alabama has two. Kentucky’s number trails Tennessee’s and Ole Miss’s because it still goes to Knoxville and has Florida and Missouri left. Texas is 1-2 in the league. FPI has Georgia at 45.4 percent, Alabama at 12.7, Tennessee at 10.3 and Ole Miss at 9.9.

Big Ten. Ohio State 50 (up 8), Indiana 22 (down 12), UCLA 12 (up 6), Iowa 5, Oregon 4 (up 1), USC 3, Wisconsin 1 (down 2), Nebraska 1 (down 1), field 2. Ohio State is 4-0 and holds the tiebreaker over Indiana. The race is no longer just two teams. UCLA is also 4-0, and its remaining schedule does not include Ohio State or Indiana. FPI has Ohio State at 57.9 percent, Indiana at 28.2, Oregon at 5.3 and UCLA at 4.3.

Big 12. Texas Tech 31 (up 1), BYU 27 (up 3), Utah 27, Houston 8 (up 1), Arizona 2, Baylor 2, Oklahoma State 1 (down 4), field 2 (down 1). BYU moves up because Saturday was the best evidence yet of how good it is, though the result does not count in the standings. Utah won and holds. Oklahoma State took its first league loss, and the field shrinks because Arizona State, part of it, lost by 28 in Lubbock. FPI has Texas Tech at 38.1 percent, BYU at 27.2, Utah at 21.6 and Houston at 8.5.

Pac-12. Boise State 64, Oregon State 20, Fresno State 7, Washington State 4, Texas State 2, San Diego State 1, Utah State 1, Colorado State 1. No changes. Boise State was off and goes to Washington State on Saturday. FPI has Boise at 65.1 percent and Oregon State at 29.5.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a seventh week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC, the Pac-12, the American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and the MAC. FPI still has ten SEC teams in its top 25, with seven from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and three from the ACC, the same split as a week ago. SP+ counts it differently again, with eight from the Big Ten, seven from the SEC, five from the Big 12 and four from the ACC. We keep the SEC first because of FPI’s ten-to-seven edge and because the SEC has three of SP+’s top eight teams to the Big Ten’s two.

The SEC has no unbeaten teams left. ESPN counted six SEC games on Saturday with at least one ranked team, and in four of them the lower-ranked team won. Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss each have one league loss, and Alabama and Texas both have two losses overall after being national title contenders two weeks ago. Arkansas beat Vanderbilt 31-21 for its first SEC win. CBS projected five SEC teams in the playoff before the weekend, and ESPN has four in its twelve now. Georgia is off this week. Ole Miss goes to Texas, Tennessee to South Carolina and LSU to Auburn, and Kentucky hosts Vanderbilt.

The Big Ten has one unbeaten team, and it is UCLA. Ohio State has the tiebreaker over Indiana and the bye week it needs to plan for Fahey, then goes to USC on Halloween. USC plays at Wisconsin on Saturday before facing Ohio State and Indiana in back-to-back weeks, so its season gets decided in the next month. Indiana goes to Michigan, which benched Bryce Underwood for Tommy Carr in a 21-18 win over Penn State. Penn State is 3-4 and 0-4 in the league under Matt Campbell. Oregon is 2-1 in the league after winning with its third-string starter and Raiola off the bench. Nebraska has blown fourth-quarter leads in back-to-back weeks. At the bottom, Rutgers beat Maryland 37-30, and CBS notes Mike Locksley is now 2-20 in Big Ten games since 2024.

The Big 12 still has three unbeaten teams, all of them 3-0 in the league, and ESPN’s committee projection has all three in its twelve. Texas Tech goes to Cincinnati, and Utah hosts Houston, which has one league loss and cannot afford a second. BYU goes to UCF. Texas Tech does not play BYU or Utah, so the league’s best path to two bids is a one-loss runner-up. Arizona State, which won the league two years ago, has lost consecutive Big 12 games by more than five touchdowns. Oklahoma State is 2-1 and hosts Colorado, and it still gets Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th.

The ACC has one unbeaten team in Miami and one serious challenger in Wake Forest, which is off this week. Duke, the defending champion, has lost two straight. North Carolina is 4-2 under Bill Belichick and has won as a road underdog in back-to-back weeks. Florida State is 3-4 and the AP notes it is 10-22 in its last 32 games under Mike Norvell. SMU is 5-1 and hosts Cal. Pitt lost 27-21 at a Boston College team that came in 2-3, with Corey Dailey, a true freshman, making his first start, and the Panthers were flagged 13 times for 133 yards. Miami hosts Pitt on Saturday, then goes to North Carolina on October 31st.

The Pac-12 is still the best of the group. Its average team rates higher in FPI than any league below it, and FPI has Boise State 30th and Oregon State 49th, the only league in the group with two teams in the top 50. Its average also leads in SP+. Its median team now rates slightly better than the American’s in FPI, which was the other way around a week ago, but SP+ still has the American’s median ahead. SP+ is also cooler on the top of the league, with Boise 37th and Oregon State 39th, both behind James Madison and New Mexico. Two of its eight teams are below 100th. Oregon State leads the standings at 3-0, with Boise State at 2-0. The change this week is at the top of the Group of Six. FPI now gives James Madison a better chance of making the playoff than Boise State, though ESPN’s committee projection still has Boise as the top Group of Six team. Boise goes to Washington State on Saturday.

The American still has no team in FPI’s top 50, and it got less deep this week. Five of its 14 teams are now below 100th, up from three. UTSA leads the standings at 3-0 and is 6-1 overall, and FPI gives the Roadrunners a 3.9 percent chance of making the playoff, the best in the league. FPI still makes North Texas, which is 2-0 in the league, the favorite to win it, at 31.2 percent, with UTSA and Memphis at 20.1 each and Army at 15.8. Memphis is 5-2, 57th in FPI and 51st in SP+, the highest-rated team in the league in both, and it hosts East Carolina on Thursday. UTSA goes to Tulane on Saturday.

The Mountain West has New Mexico, 5-1 and 43rd in FPI, with a 63.1 percent chance of winning the league after a 21-10 win at Hawaii. SP+ has New Mexico 30th and North Dakota State 35th, the best pair in any Group of Six league. North Dakota State is 6-1 and goes to New Mexico on Saturday night in the game most likely to decide the league. Air Force is the new contender. After losing to North Dakota State early in the season, it has won four straight, including 41-31 over UNLV, which was the Rebels’ first league loss. Half of the league’s ten teams are below 100th.

The Sun Belt is James Madison, which beat Georgia State 49-22 to go to 7-0 and is now FPI’s best Group of Six playoff candidate. SP+ moved them up 12 spots to 28th, the highest of any Group of Six team, and its résumé ranking has them 11th. FPI gives the Dukes a 73.8 percent chance of winning the league and a 44.3 percent chance of making the playoff. They play at App State on Thursday night. They have also yet to play a ranked opponent. The rest of the league is the problem for them. The next Sun Belt team in FPI is Louisiana, at 76th, and half the league is below 100th.

The MAC is still last by a wide margin. Its best team in FPI is Western Michigan at 81st, and its best in SP+ is Toledo at 65th, and 10 of its 13 teams are below 100th. Western Michigan is 5-2 and 3-0 in the league, with a 47.9 percent chance of winning it, and it goes to Toledo, which is 5-2 and 2-1, on Saturday. Ohio is the only other team unbeaten in league play, and it does not play Western Michigan. No MAC team has as much as a 1 percent chance of making the playoff.

The Week 8 Board

All times Eastern. All games are Saturday, October 24th. Kickoff times and networks are from CBS’s schedule, and three of the four were still to be announced. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, and percentages are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor; each percentage is the favorite’s chance of winning. No line had been posted for Houston at Utah when we went to press. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 7 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. The market and the Match-Up Predictor have the same favorite in all three games with a line. The biggest gap in degree is in Austin, where ESPN gives Texas a 71.1 percent chance of winning a game the market makes a three-point spread.

Predictions

Miami 34, Pittsburgh 13. ESPN gives Miami a 92.4 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make the gap about 20 points at Hard Rock Stadium. SP+ makes it about 18. The line is 23.5. Miami is the better team by a lot, but it just gave up 35 points and 298 passing yards to a Florida State team that is 3-4. Pitt has lost two straight since Mason Heintschel’s season-ending injury, to North Carolina and at Boston College, and started a true freshman, Corey Dailey, in the second of them. Dailey completed 11 of 25 passes with two interceptions, and Pitt was flagged 13 times. We think Miami wins comfortably and does not quite get to 24. Miami wins, Pittsburgh covers. Under.

What it means. Miami’s playoff case does not rest on this game, but its seeding might. ESPN’s point is that Miami would still make the field even with a loss at Notre Dame on November 7th, because an ACC title would get it in. A loss to Pitt would use up that margin before November, and it would put Miami in the loss column with Wake Forest, the team ESPN expects it to see again in the ACC title game. For Pitt, a third straight loss ends its ACC hopes.

BYU 27, UCF 17. ESPN gives BYU a 70.7 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 10 points in Orlando. SP+ makes it about 14, and it has BYU’s defense ninth in the country against a UCF offense it ranks 81st. The line is 7.5. The obvious worry is a letdown, a week after the biggest win of the season and on the road across the country. But UCF is 3-3 and 51st in FPI. Bachmeier is playing as well as any quarterback in the country, and LJ Martin’s status is worth watching. We think BYU wins by double digits in a lower-scoring game than the total suggests. BYU wins and covers. Under.

What it means. BYU’s playoff case is now built on the Notre Dame win, and a loss to a 3-3 team would take much of the shine off it before the first committee ranking on November 3rd. The bigger stakes are in the Big 12. BYU and Utah play on November 7th, and the league’s best chance at two playoff bids is for one of them to be a one-loss runner-up. BYU at 7-0 going into Salt Lake City keeps that possible.

Utah 28, Houston 24. ESPN gives Utah a 67.1 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about five points at Rice-Eccles Stadium. SP+ makes it about seven and a half. No line had been posted when we went to press. Utah has scored a touchdown on its opening drive in every game and has outscored opponents 75-3 in the first quarter, which matters because Houston’s offense is at its best once it gets going. Houston’s offense is the best Utah will have seen. Weigman threw for 343 yards against Oklahoma State, and Houston had 505 yards. We think Utah’s start and its home field are the difference. Utah wins.

What it means. Houston already has one league loss, and a second would leave it needing two of the three unbeaten teams to lose twice. A Houston win would put the Cougars level with Utah in the loss column and give them the best win in the Big 12 race so far. For Utah, this is the first chance to beat a team with a winning record, which ESPN says is the biggest hole in its résumé. Winning it would make November 7th against BYU a game between two unbeaten teams for a place in the Big 12 title game.

Texas 27, Ole Miss 20. ESPN gives Texas a 71.1 percent chance of winning, the line is Texas by three, and FPI’s ratings make it about seven in Austin. SP+ makes it about six and a half. We rank Ole Miss seven spots ahead of Texas, and the Rebels have the better season. This pick is about one game in Austin, and both models think Texas wins it. Texas’s problem all year has been its offense. It came into Saturday averaging 3.66 yards a carry, 117th in the country, and Florida, the worst defense in the SEC, sacked Arch Manning five times. But the defense is still the strength of the team, fifth in the country in SP+, and Ole Miss’s defense is 42nd and allows 23.8 points a game, the most of the three one-loss teams ESPN grouped together in its projection. That is the matchup Texas’s offense has been waiting for. The worry is Colin Simmons, Texas’s best pass rusher, who left the Florida game with an ankle injury. Ole Miss just ran for 257 yards against Missouri, and without Simmons, Texas will have a harder time keeping Trinidad Chambliss in the pocket. We think Texas wins a lower-scoring game than the total suggests. Texas wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Texas cannot lose a third game and stay in the playoff conversation. It would be 4-3 and 1-3 in the SEC with Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play, and ESPN already describes Texas as on the brink. A Texas win would give it a third win over a team in our top 11 and put it back in the debate with the other two-loss teams. For Ole Miss, a second loss would let the committee revisit its head-to-head loss to Florida, which ESPN points out could become the tiebreaker between two two-loss teams. A win would put Ole Miss at 6-1 and 4-1 in the league going into Georgia’s visit on November 7th.

That game also matters to the SEC race. Ole Miss is one of four teams with one league loss, and Texas is 1-2. A Texas win would leave three one-loss teams, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky, and would make Kentucky’s trip to Knoxville on November 7th a game for first place.

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The SEC is Eating its Own

While the playoff will determine the champion, which has been the domain of the Big Ten each of the previous three seasons, it is safe to say that the SEC is the top-to-bottom class of the sport right now. A whopping nine teams are currently ranked among the Top 30 of Bill Connelly’s SP+. Throw in that the conference went to a 9-game schedule this season and the outcome is obvious; they’re beating each other up. 

Let’s start with the Red River Reckoning [Rivalry]. It was certainly a rough afternoon for Arch Manning (two 4th Qtr interceptions, one returned for a TD). But to lose to an Oklahoma offense that averaged just 4.2 yards per play and was just 2-of-13 on 3rd downs took a team effort, including a blocked punt the Sooners returned for a TD. And while the Sooners offense didn’t do much, credit to QB John Mateer, who appeared to be on his way to the bench, for managing the game while completing passes of 13 and 20 yards to set up the game-winning FG as time expired. The Sooners still have little chance at making the playoff, but there are at least signs of life.

The SEC’s main course of Georgia at Alabama had a little of everything. Starting with a hurricane that passed by Tuscaloosa early in the day and forced ESPN’s College GameDay into a gymnasium. But the game went on as scheduled and was one of those old-fashioned SEC slugfests. Despite being without their top two running backs the Dawgs managed 206 yards rushing, while Gunnar Stockton was a very efficient 18/22, 249 yards (11.3 yards per attempt) as Georgia went 7/13 on 3rd down. Alabama moved the ball, but also struggled to get into scoring range due to mistakes and negative plays. That said, perhaps the biggest mistake of the game did not belong to either team but to the officials, who did not call what appeared to be an obvious defensive pass interference on Georgia DB KJ Bolden in the end zone late in the 4th Quarter. Had the call been made it would have put the Tide in FG range to tie and kept a potential go-ahead TD drive going. Instead Alabama took a sack on the next play and had to punt, and Georgia was able to run out the clock.

A Big Shift in the Big Ten?

UCLA continued its rise among the college football ranks by going to Oregon and leaving with an improbable 17-15 win. As the score suggests, this was not only a game dominated by defense, but was ugly for the offenses, and that’s probably an understatement. The game featured 10 turnovers, seven of them by Oregon. That’s not to say it was a banner day for the Bruins either, as they were penalized 9 times and were just 4-of-16 on third down. It was also not a good day for either quarterback who started this game. Bruins QB Nico Iamaleava threw 2 interceptions to no touchdowns, and appeared to suffer a lower leg injury in the 2nd Quarter that led to him not returning for the second half. His replacement, Ty Dieffenbach, was not asked to do much, and thanks to just enough production from RB Wayne Knight he didn’t have to. Dylan Raiola got the start for the Ducks for Dante Moore, who is still recovering from a concussion suffered during the game at USC. Raiola filled in masterfully for Moore that day. But this day was much, much different. Raiola was under pressure constantly and went just 6/19, 43 yards, 2 picks plus a fumble lost before being benched after 3 quarters for 3rd-string QB Brock Thomas. Thomas did reasonably well, leading the Ducks to a TD drive with 2:16 left, but Oregon could not convert the 2-point attempt, and that was the difference.

The unbeaten Bruins have all the look of the 2024 Indiana Hoosiers who went 11-1 and made the CFP, complete with their own ex-James Madison head coach. While their remaining schedule appears to set up well, they will have to manage without Iamaleava this weekend against 4-1 Wisconsin at the Rose Bowl. The Ducks meanwhile are facing the longest of odds to return to the CFP. Moore is still out this Saturday against a 5-1 Nebraska team that nearly knocked off Indiana last Saturday. And even if Oregon does get by the next several games, a Nov. 7 trip to Columbus looms, and it’s almost impossible to envision a playoff path for an Oregon team with 3 losses.

My Top 10

1. Georgia — Yes, they certainly benefitted from a controversial no-call late in the game at Alabama, but also showed me enough to prove they are legit and deserve to be atop the perch

2. Ohio State — They didn’t just survive a trip to Kinnick, they controlled the game against a team whose hallmark is dictating the style of play to their opponent. Another big test awaits Saturday

3. Notre Dame — The Irish will finally face playoff worthy competition Saturday

4. Alabama — Costly officiating error aside, the Tide can point to several plays-not-made of their own that cost them. Still, they proved they are a serious title contender

5. Miami — That close win at Wake Forest is aging better, but the ‘Canes can’t afford to get caught looking ahead to Nov. 7 in South Bend  

6. Indiana — After a couple of close calls against Northwestern and Nebraska, the nation’s longest winning streak is on the line in what may be the biggest home game in IU history

7. Texas — Steve Sarkisian makes a fair point; Arch’s lineage put expectations on his back that any college QB would struggle to meet. But he has to be much better than Saturday for the ‘Horns to have any shot

8. BYU — Saturday’s game against Notre Dame replaced the Irish’s traditional game against USC, and this is one time I don’t mind seeing a rivalry interrupted

9.  Ole Miss — Now that the aftertaste of that letdown at Florida is gone, time to get back to work with a better-than-I-thought Missouri team coming to Oxford

10. Texas Tech — They appear to have a pretty manageable path to Arlington for the Big 12 title game

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana — Noon ET, FOX

Line: Ohio State -3.5, O/U 50.5

The defending national champion, owner of a 22-game winning streak, is an underdog at home. Disrespectful? Maybe. But with Jeremiah Smith and the SP+ No. 1 offense coming to town, it shouldn’t be a surprise. This will be the first real look for many at the current Hoosiers team, which has had much turnover from the one that knocked off Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game last season.

While Indiana’s defense just may be good enough to slow down Smith & Co., the Hoosier offense is a concern. The headline numbers look solid, but an under-the-hood view shows some of those numbers were padded against the likes of Howard and Western Kentucky, and against tougher opponents like Northwestern and Nebraska their ability to stay on schedule running the ball on early downs has led to middling results on 3rd Down. That won’t succeed against the Buckeyes. But as always under Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers won’t beat themselves — they have just one turnover all season and are 4th in FBS in fewest penalties accepted. OSU has its work cut out for it, and this should be a tight game, but defense travels well and the Buckeyes have an elite one.

Ohio State win/Indiana cover

No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 LSU — Noon ET, ESPN

Line: LSU -15.5, O/U 57.5

There’s been a significant line shift, 3 points, towards LSU due to the questionable status of MSU quarterback Kamario Taylor, who left the game against Alabama in the 3rd Quarter with a lower leg injury. If Taylor can’t go, +15.5 may not be enough, as the Bulldogs just don’t have a defense they can lean on (98th in the country in EPA allowed per pass and give up 28.0 points per game — tied for 108th). Despite Sam Leavitt’s 8 interceptions thus far, he should have big numbers in this game. Even if Taylor plays, he may well be limited physically, so I’ll take LSU even laying over two TDs.

LSU win/cover

No. 6 Alabama at No. 14 Tennessee — 3:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Alabama -7.5, O/U 50.5

Fresh off its first loss of the season, the Tide head to Knoxville to face a Tennessee team that’s won five of six. Hitting the road after an emotional loss, against a quality SEC opponent, is the kind of trap Alabama must avoid if it wants to stay in the playoff conversation.

The efficiency numbers favor Alabama’s offense heavily. The Crimson Tide are 16th in adjusted EPA per play and 4th in success rate, and have dropped 45 or more points on everyone but Georgia. The Vols’ offense is the mirror image — 121st in EPA per pass and 126th in pass play success rate, and have an unsettled quarterback situation — George MacIntyre replaced injured Faizon Brandon during the Texas loss, and it has yet to be determined who will start Saturday. The offense goes through RB DeSean Bishop, who has 678 rushing yards and ranks second nationally in EPA per rush. Tennessee’s best asset is a defense that is 32nd in adjusted EPA per play and 14th in EPA per pass.

Even with their defense, Tennessee will have to score in the high 20s to keep this close, and a team with the 121st-ranked passing offense and an injured starting quarterback, and a backup who has mostly been ineffective, will struggle to do that against a top-10 defense. If Bishop can’t carry the whole load, Alabama’s offense, which averages 44.2 points per game, only needs a few explosive plays against Tennessee’s secondary. Even with Tide WR Ryan Coleman-Williams out, I think they will get the big plays they need.

Alabama win/cover

No. 13 Missouri at No. 9 Ole Miss — 3:30pm ET, SECN

Line: Ole Miss -5.5, O/U 58.5

I apologize, Missouri, I was unfamiliar with your game. I dissed on the Tigers pretty bad in previewing their game against Florida, and all they did was whack the Gators 45-17 and then stifled Texas A&M 27-6. I won’t make that mistake again. Or will I?

The Tigers’ offense is 14th in the nation in adjusted EPA per play and 19th in yards per play, compared with 44th and 36th for Ole Miss. Ole Miss’s defense is the clearest weakness in this matchup, ranking 91st in opponent success rate and 100th in opponent adjusted EPA per play. Missouri’s defense sits in the 90th percentile for EPA allowed and 94th percentile in success rate allowed.

Still, I’ve yet to see Missouri do it on the road in the SEC. And in what figures to be a pass-heavy, high-scoring game, and edge goes to the Heisman-hopeful QB (Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss). With all that said, right team, wrong number.

Ole Miss win/Missouri cover

No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU — 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Notre Dame -10.5, O/U 46.5

The Irish have played only one team within the SP+ Top 55 (#34 Wisconsin). But still, their adjusted metrics make them a decisive favorite. They lead the country in offensive adjusted EPA per play and they rank 2nd in points per drive and third in success rate, EPA per snap, and EPA per dropback. The defense is just as strong. It is sixth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and fourth in rush success rate allowed (33.8%).

The Cougars are obviously no slouch. Their offense has been efficient too, ranking in the Top 10 in offensive success rate at 50.9%, but it is without running back LJ Martin and face a defensive front that has been among the best in the country, a tall order for a BYU team that relies on the run. BYU’s defense is 29th in opponent success rate but has struggled to stop the run, ranking 77th in EPA per rush allowed, which is the weakness Notre Dame is best built to exploit.

LaVell Edwards Stadium will be electric, and the Irish have little experience dealing with adversity so far. This should really be a test for them. I like Notre Dame to win, but double-digits feels like a bit too much.

Notre Dame win/BYU cover

No. 18 Oklahoma State at No. 20 Houston — 7:30pm ET, FOX

Line: Houston -4.5, O/U 62.5

This one sets up as another high-scoring affair. The history backs that up, since the over has hit in five straight meetings between these teams. Houston is 7th in the country in offensive success rate but 58th in opponent success rate, while Oklahoma State is 22nd in success rate but 46th in opponent success rate. Oklahoma State arrives with a four-game winning streak that includes a Week 2 upset of Oregon, but its minus-3 turnover margin is a concern.

Houston, for its part, is coming off a 35-16 win at Kansas State. Their lone loss was at Texas Tech by just two points, but because of that result this feels like an elimination game for the Cougars to make the Big 12 title game and stay in the CFP conversation. That turnover issue for the Cowboys sticks with me as a possible difference maker in a game that could come down to who has the ball last.

Houston win/Oklahoma State cover

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Quick Hits

We went 0-5 straight up. Every team we picked to win last week lost, and three of them were favored by at least 9.5 points.

Oklahoma 27, Texas 24. We had Texas first for four weeks and wrote each week that the case against the Longhorns was the offense. The offense finally cost them. Tate Sandell kicked a 47-yard field goal on the final play, and Oklahoma won a game in which it gained 238 yards and scored one offensive touchdown. The other two came on a blocked punt recovered in the end zone and Peyton Bowen’s 42-yard interception return. Arch Manning threw three touchdown passes and two interceptions, and the second one, with 19 seconds left, set up the winning kick. Texas converted three of 14 third downs. John Mateer, whom Oklahoma had talked about benching, completed 18 of 26 passes and hit Isaiah Sategna for 13 and 20 yards to get Sandell in range. It was Oklahoma’s first win over a No. 1 team since 2007. We said the Sooners would cover 9.5 points. We did not say they would win.

Georgia 20, Alabama 17. We ranked Georgia third and Alabama fourth and picked Alabama anyway, on the grounds that home field was worth more than the gap between them. The ranking was right and the pick was wrong. Dwight Phillips Jr. ran for 120 yards, Georgia ran for 206 as a team without Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens, and Gunner Stockton completed 18 of 22 passes for 249 yards, including 9 of 10 on third down. It was Kirby Smart’s first win in Tuscaloosa.

It came with an argument. Late in the fourth quarter, officials did not flag Georgia safety KJ Bolden on what looked like pass interference in the end zone. Bolden sacked Keelon Russell on the next play and Alabama punted. Georgia also recovered all five of its own fumbles. Russell was 16 of 30 for 185 yards, and Ryan Coleman-Williams left the game twice, the second time to be evaluated for a concussion. We called for 59 points and got 37.

UCLA 17, Oregon 15. The game had ten turnovers, and seven of them were Oregon’s. Dylan Raiola completed six passes for 43 yards with two interceptions before Dan Lanning went to Brock Thomas, whose 44-yard touchdown pass to Evan Stewart made it 17-15 with 2:16 left. Oregon got two tries at the two-point conversion because of a facemask penalty, and UCLA stopped Jordon Davison from half a yard out on the second. Wayne Knight ran for 103 yards and scored both UCLA touchdowns. The Bruins lost Nico Iamaleava to a lower leg injury before halftime and finished the game with Ty Dieffenbach. Bob Chesney is 5-0. We said for two weeks that we would move Oregon once we knew its quarterback. Now we know, and the Ducks are out of our twenty. Oregon has to run the table (including winning at Columbus) to make the CFP.

Kentucky 35, LSU 34, in overtime. For the second straight week Will Stein went for two and the win in overtime, and for the second straight week it worked, by the same score. Kenneth Minchey ran it in untouched. Adam Zouagui missed field goals of 42 and 26 yards in the last five minutes of regulation, then made a 33-yarder with 12 seconds left to force overtime. Kentucky played without six defensive regulars and still gained 401 yards on a defense that had been allowing 220.6 a game. We had Kentucky covering in our first draft last week and switched to LSU when SP+ came out. That was a mistake.

North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17. We left Pitt out of our twenty at 5-0 because Mason Heintschel was out for the season, and then we picked the Panthers to win by three. Holden Geriner was 27 of 44 for 219 yards with two interceptions in his first college start. Pitt took a 17-14 lead in the second half, and Billy Edwards Jr. answered with a 75-yard touchdown pass to Shamar Easter. It was Bill Belichick’s first win over a ranked opponent at North Carolina.

South Carolina 38, Florida 19. Last week we kept Florida two spots ahead of a Missouri team that had just beaten it by 28, and wrote that one more result like it would flip the order. LaNorris Sellers accounted for five touchdowns, four of them passing, and Dylan Stewart forced two fumbles in his return from a suspension. South Carolina had lost eight straight SEC games. Florida has lost its last two by a combined 47 points, played its second straight game without Vernell Brown III, and heard Jon Sumrall booed at home. The Gators are out of the ranking, and they go to Texas next.

Indiana 20, Nebraska 17. Nebraska led 17-6 early in the fourth quarter after Anthony Colandrea’s 39-yard touchdown run. Josh Hoover hit Nick Marsh for 75 yards on the next snap, then found him again for 44 on fourth-and-1. Marsh had six catches for 187 yards. Indiana ran for 65 yards, its season low, and trailed at halftime for the first time since last year’s Big Ten championship game. It has won 22 straight. Nebraska has lost 31 straight to ranked opponents.

Most of the rest of the ranked teams took care of business. Notre Dame beat Stanford 58-7, with freshman Jonaz Walton scoring on runs of 97 and 40 yards. Ohio State beat Maryland 45-16. Ole Miss won 52-17 at Vanderbilt. Missouri beat Texas A&M 27-6 behind 222 rushing yards from Jamal Roberts. Iowa won 41-24 at Washington on Friday, and USC won 31-23 at Penn State, which is 3-3 overall and 0-3 in the Big Ten. Utah beat Kansas 41-24. BYU beat Iowa State by 14 with 329 passing yards and 109 rushing yards from Bear Bachmeier. Tennessee turned it over three times and won by seven at Arkansas. Houston won 35-16 at Kansas State, and tight end Patrick Overmyer caught four touchdown passes, tying the FBS record for the position. Miami, Texas Tech and Mississippi State were off.

Power Rankings

Georgia moves up two, to No. 1. For five weeks the knock on Georgia was that it had not played anyone. It has now won on the road against the team we had fourth. FPI gives Georgia a 95.7 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, the highest in the country, and a 54.3 percent chance of winning the SEC. The 41-13 win over Oklahoma two weeks ago looks better today than it did on Friday. We would not go as far as some of the coverage, which has Georgia settling every question. It won by three, it recovered all five of its own fumbles, it got the benefit of the no-call, and ESPN notes it allowed six plays of 20 yards or more, its most in a game since 2024. SP+ moved Ohio State past Georgia into first after the game. We think Georgia is the best team in the country. The gap to Alabama is small.

Miami moves up two. The Hurricanes were off. They move because Texas and Alabama lost, and because nothing happened to change what we thought of them. ESPN notes that Miami is first in the country in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Pitt and Duke both lost on Saturday, which leaves Miami as the only unbeaten team in the ACC.

Notre Dame moves up two. The Irish won 58-7, and their win at North Carolina improved when the Tar Heels won at Pitt. FPI now rates Notre Dame first. We keep the Irish behind Miami because we moved Miami past them a week ago and neither has given us a reason to switch back. They play each other on November 7th. Saturday’s trip to BYU is Notre Dame’s hardest game so far.

Alabama drops one. A three-point loss to our new No. 1, with that no-call in it, does not cost much. Alabama falls behind Miami and Notre Dame, who are unbeaten, and stays ahead of Texas. The Tide lost to the best team in the country. Texas lost to a team that came in 2-2. Alabama’s 45-17 win at Kentucky also got better on Saturday night.

Texas drops five. Texas lost to an opponent that gained 238 yards. ESPN has the Longhorns at 5.4 yards a play and 3.7 yards a carry, both worse than 100th in the country. We do not drop them further because the wins over Ohio State and at Tennessee are still two of the best on anyone’s résumé.

Why Ohio State stays ahead of Texas. Texas beat Ohio State, and we have Texas four spots behind the Buckeyes. That needs explaining. The game was in Week 2, in Austin, and Texas won it by one point on a fourth-quarter comeback. That result says the two teams were about even five weeks ago. Since then Ohio State has won four straight, including 31-14 at an Iowa team that is now 5-1 and just recently won by 17 at Washington. Texas nearly lost at Tennessee and then lost in Dallas. The two losses are also not the same. Ohio State lost by one on the road to a team that is still in everyone’s top six. Texas lost on a neutral field to a team that came in 2-2, gained 238 yards and scored one offensive touchdown. FPI rates Ohio State third and Texas sixth, and SP+ has Ohio State first and Texas sixth. The polls and the committee break a tie between teams with the same record by looking at who won when they played. That is a fair way to compare résumés, and Texas has the two best wins between them, over Ohio State and at Tennessee. Even so, résumé SP+ has Ohio State eighth and Texas ninth. We are ranking who we think is the better team today, and we think that is Ohio State. If the Buckeyes lose in Bloomington on Saturday, this order changes.

UCLA enters at 11. The Bruins are 5-0 with three road wins over power-conference teams, and ESPN notes this was their first win at Autzen Stadium since 2004. We slot them behind the three Big 12 unbeatens because Oregon handed them seven turnovers and because Iamaleava’s status is unknown. The models split on the Bruins. FPI ranks them 36th. SP+ has them 18th, and seventh in its résumé ranking.

Kentucky enters at 16. The Wildcats are 5-1 with wins at Texas A&M, at South Carolina and over LSU, and the only loss is to Alabama. Two of those wins came by one point in overtime, which is why they are not higher. FPI has Kentucky 30th and SP+ has it 47th.

LSU drops ten. That is the biggest move of the week and one short of the largest drop we have made all year. LSU is 4-2, and CBS points out that its best wins are now Texas A&M, which is 3-3, and Clemson, which is 3-2. The Tigers have lost to Ole Miss and Kentucky, and both are ahead of them here. They stay in the twenty because both losses came on the road, by a combined nine points, and because FPI still rates them eighth and SP+ ninth. Mississippi State comes to Baton Rouge on Saturday.

Oregon and Florida leave the ranking. Oregon is 3-2 with losses to Oklahoma State and UCLA and has used three quarterbacks in five games. Florida is 4-2 and has been beaten by 28 and 19 in back-to-back weeks. Oregon is not finished affecting the race. FPI still rates the Ducks ninth and SP+ 12th, Dante Moore is still in concussion protocol and could return, and they go to Ohio State on November 7th. As we said above, Oregon would need to run the table to make the CFP.

Texas Tech, BYU and Utah each move up one as LSU falls past them. Utah stays one spot behind BYU until they play on November 7th. Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee and Iowa each move up two into the space Oregon and Florida left, and all four won. USC moves up one after winning at Penn State. Ohio State, Indiana, Mississippi State and Nebraska hold. Nebraska lost, but it lost by three to our No. 7 team after leading by 11 in the fourth quarter. Houston, Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, Arizona and Boise State, all with one loss, are the next group.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 6 AP poll has Georgia first, then Notre Dame, Miami, Texas, Ohio State, Indiana and Alabama. It moves UCLA from 21st to 11th, brings Kentucky in at 19 and has LSU hanging on at 25. It drops Oregon, Florida and Pitt. The real poll was not out at press time. Last week’s projection, which we used on the board, missed in a few places. The AP had Ohio State fifth and Alabama sixth, Texas Tech 11th, Florida 16th, Iowa 20th and UCLA 21st, and it left Kentucky out. It did rank Pitt, at 25.

ESPN’s committee projection goes Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Indiana, BYU, Ole Miss, UCLA, Utah and Kentucky, with Boise State taking Kentucky’s bracket spot as the top Group of Six team. CBS’s bowl projection seeds Miami, Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama in the top four and has Notre Dame, Indiana, Utah, Texas, UCLA, Ole Miss, Kentucky and Boise State behind them.

We differ in three places. Both the poll projection and the committee projection keep Texas ahead of Ohio State on the head-to-head, and we have it the other way, for the reasons given above. Neither bracket has Texas Tech in its twelve, and we have the Red Raiders eighth. They have not lost, and they do not play Utah or BYU. And both projections have Kentucky in their top twelve, while we have the Wildcats 16th.

FPI’s post-Week 6 run has Notre Dame first, then Georgia, Ohio State, Miami, Alabama, Texas and Indiana. That is our top seven in a slightly different order. It disagrees with us further down. It has LSU eighth and Oregon ninth, where we have LSU 18th and Oregon unranked. It has Nebraska 12th and Houston 18th. It has Iowa 23rd, Mississippi State 27th, Kentucky 30th and UCLA 36th. FPI is a rating of how good a team is likely to be from here. We give more weight than it does to the results a team already has, which is why UCLA and Kentucky are in our twenty and Oregon is not.

SP+’s October 11th run moved Ohio State past Georgia into first, with Notre Dame third, Miami fourth, Indiana fifth and Texas sixth. It has Utah seventh, ahead of Alabama, which fell two spots to eighth. It sides with FPI on LSU, which it has ninth, and on Oregon, which it has 12th. It moved Ole Miss up 19 spots to 16th and Oklahoma State up 20 to 22nd. It is closer to us than FPI is on UCLA, at 18th. It is further from us on Kentucky, at 47th. As it did a week ago, it has Nebraska, at 14th, well ahead of Iowa at 24th and Mississippi State at 28th, and we have Nebraska behind both. It also has Northwestern, which is 4-1, at 17th. Its résumé ranking goes Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Alabama, Indiana and Utah, then UCLA, Ohio State and Texas.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, and the Change column is against August. The week-over-week moves are bigger. LSU loses 24 points, which matches the largest cut we have made this season, and Texas loses 19. LSU has two losses with Mississippi State, Alabama and Texas still to come, and CBS and ESPN both describe the rest of its season as a series of elimination games. Texas is still more likely in than out at 64 percent, but it has Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU left and no longer has a loss to give.

Georgia gains 12 points and takes the highest playoff number on the board from Miami, which gains four of its own as the ACC thins out behind it. Indiana gains six, because it is 6-0 and because three SEC teams and Oregon just fell out of its way. Iowa and Missouri each gain six, USC gains four, and Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas Tech and Utah gain two apiece. Alabama gives back four, which is light for a loss, because it is the kind of loss the committee forgives. BYU gives back two with LJ Martin hurt and Notre Dame coming to Provo. Nebraska gives back two.

UCLA joins the table with a 30 percent chance and Kentucky with 20. ESPN’s Playoff Predictor had UCLA at 1 percent in August and has it at 33 now. Oregon, which we gave a 74 percent chance in August, and Florida fall into the field. The field grows to 1.80 and now also holds Houston, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Pitt. The Group of Six holds at 1.12. FPI gives Boise State a 46.6 percent chance of making the playoff and James Madison 27.1.

Conference Projections

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of winning its conference.

ACC. Miami 73 (up 3), Wake Forest 9 (up 6), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 3 (down 3), Duke 3 (down 4), field 2. Louisville and Virginia fall into the field. Miami is the only unbeaten team left in the league. Wake Forest is 5-1 and 3-1 in the ACC after scoring the last 31 points at NC State, and its only loss is to Miami. Duke lost 28-25 at Georgia Tech when Gavin Strange missed a 33-yard field goal with five seconds left. FPI has Miami at 82.6 percent.

SEC. Georgia 46 (up 18), Alabama 20 (down 4), Texas 14 (down 11), Ole Miss 5 (up 1), Missouri 4 (up 2), Kentucky 3 (new), Tennessee 2, LSU 2 (down 6), Oklahoma 1 (new), Mississippi State 1, field 2. Florida falls into the field. Georgia now holds the tiebreaker over Alabama, and ESPN says FPI gives the Bulldogs at least an 80 percent chance of winning each game they have left. Kentucky is 3-1 in the league. FPI has Georgia at 54.3 percent, Alabama at 23.9 and Texas at 13.5.

Big Ten. Ohio State 42 (up 2), Indiana 34 (up 7), UCLA 6 (new), Iowa 5 (up 1), Oregon 3 (down 12), USC 3, Wisconsin 3 (up 1), Nebraska 2 (down 3), field 2 (down 2). This is a two-team race, and the two teams play in Bloomington on Saturday. The field shrinks because Penn State and Michigan, the biggest names in it, are both winless in the league. FPI has Ohio State at 44.5 percent and Indiana at 41.1.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30, Utah 27, BYU 24, Houston 7 (up 3), Oklahoma State 5, Arizona 2, Baylor 2 (new), field 3 (up 1). Cincinnati and Kansas State fall into the field. Kansas State is 0-2 in the league. Last week we wrote that Cincinnati had taken its first loss without saying to whom. It was to Arizona, which has now won four straight and scored 52 at West Virginia. Houston hosts Oklahoma State on Saturday, and CBS notes that Oklahoma State also gets Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th. FPI has Texas Tech at 33.6 percent, Utah at 28.0 and BYU at 21.7.

Pac-12. Boise State 64 (up 8), Oregon State 20 (up 9), Fresno State 7 (down 8), Washington State 4, Texas State 2 (down 5), San Diego State 1 (down 4), Utah State 1, Colorado State 1. Boise won 38-31 at Fresno State in the game we circled in August, with 150 rushing yards from Dylan Riley and 120 from Sire Gaines. Oregon State beat San Diego State 66-14 and has won four straight. FPI has Boise at 68.0 percent, Oregon State at 24.1 and Texas State at 1.4.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a sixth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. Starting this week we also rank four more leagues behind them: the American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and the MAC. The SEC had three top-ten teams lose on the same day, which ESPN says has happened only three times in the history of the AP poll. All three lost to other SEC teams. FPI still has ten SEC teams in its top 25, with seven from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and three from the ACC. SP+ counts it differently, with nine from the Big Ten, seven from the SEC, six from the Big 12 and two from the ACC. We keep the SEC first because it has four of SP+’s top nine teams and the Big Ten has two.

The SEC has a clear No. 1 for the first time this season. Georgia has Auburn and Florida next and should be unbeaten when the first committee ranking comes out on November 3rd. Behind it, the league spent Saturday reshuffling. Texas lost to an Oklahoma team that had lost by 28 to Georgia. LSU lost to a Kentucky team that had lost by 28 to Alabama. Florida, which beat Ole Miss by 24 two weeks ago, lost at home to a South Carolina team that had dropped eight straight league games. Shane Beamer’s seat cooled and Jon Sumrall’s first bad month began. At Texas A&M, which is 3-3 after starting 11-0 a year ago, Mike Elko used his postgame press conference to go after a fan site. LSU still matters to everyone else, whatever happens to its own chances. Alabama goes to Baton Rouge on November 7th and Texas goes there a week later, and FPI still rates LSU eighth. Missouri goes to Ole Miss, Alabama goes to Tennessee and Kentucky goes to Oklahoma.

The Big Ten gets its game of the year on Saturday, when Ohio State goes to Indiana in a rematch of last year’s conference championship game. Indiana won that one. The surprise is behind them. UCLA is one of two unbeaten teams left in the league, and the other is Indiana. The Bruins host Wisconsin, which has won four straight since losing to Notre Dame. Oregon is 1-1 in the league and hosts Nebraska, where Dylan Raiola played before he transferred. Iowa and USC both won on the road. Penn State is 3-3, the same record that got James Franklin fired a year ago, and Michigan is winless in the league under Kyle Whittingham.

The Big 12 still has three unbeatens and still has not sorted them. Texas Tech was off and hosts Arizona State. Utah never trailed against Kansas. BYU won by 14 without LJ Martin and now gets Notre Dame without him. The league’s best game on Saturday is one tier down, where Houston hosts Oklahoma State with both teams at one loss. Houston is a failed two-point conversion at Texas Tech from being unbeaten. Arizona is 5-1 with its only loss at BYU. West Virginia has lost three straight after a 3-0 start and has allowed 40 or more in all three.

The ACC is down to one unbeaten. Pitt lost at home in Holden Geriner’s first start, and Duke lost at a Georgia Tech team that had not beaten an FBS opponent in six tries. Wake Forest is the best of the rest. Jake Dickert’s team is 5-1 with three road wins over power-conference opponents, and Gio Lopez threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns in Raleigh. North Carolina, 3-2 after winning at Pitt, goes to Duke. Miami comes off its week off to face Florida State. SMU does not play Miami and hosts Wake Forest in November.

The Pac-12 race looks more like Boise State and Oregon State than Boise State and Fresno State now. Oregon State receiver Jesse Legree, a true freshman, has 38 catches for 932 yards and 12 touchdowns in six games. We rank the Pac-12 ahead of the four leagues below because its average team rates higher than theirs in both FPI and SP+, and because FPI has Boise State 29th and Oregon State 49th, which no other league in the group can match. SP+ is cooler on the top of the league. It has Boise 42nd, behind New Mexico and James Madison. Boise’s only loss is by seven at Oregon, Oregon State’s two losses are to Houston and Texas Tech, and Boise beat the MAC favorite, Western Michigan, by 25. The league is not deep. Three of its eight teams are below 100th in FPI. But FPI gives Boise a 46.6 percent chance of making the playoff, the best of any team outside the power conferences.

The American is the deepest of these leagues and has the weakest top. It has no team in FPI’s top 50, but only three of its 14 are below 100th, and its median team rates better than the Pac-12’s in both FPI and SP+. Memphis is 5-1 and 54th, and FPI gives the Tigers a 38.0 percent chance of winning the league, with North Texas at 25.6 and UTSA at 18.3. Both Memphis and North Texas have beaten UNLV. What the American does not have is a playoff candidate. FPI gives Memphis a 6.3 percent chance, the best in the league.

The Mountain West has the second-best team in the group. New Mexico is 4-1 under Jason Eck, 38th in FPI and 29th in SP+, which makes the Lobos the highest-rated team outside the power conferences in that system. Their only loss was 14-6 at Oklahoma, and they have scored 103 points in two games since. FPI gives them a 63.9 percent chance of winning the league. North Dakota State took its first FBS loss, 13-7 at UNLV, and goes to New Mexico on October 24th. Behind those two the league falls off, with five of its ten teams below 100th.

The Sun Belt is James Madison and not much else. The Dukes are the last unbeaten team in the Group of Six after a 27-24 win at Georgia Southern, their first close game of the season. They are 6-0 under Billy Napier, and FPI gives them a 62.0 percent chance of winning the league and a 27.1 percent chance of making the playoff, second to Boise State. The next Sun Belt team in FPI is 83rd, and half the league is below 100th. That thin schedule is the problem for James Madison, though résumé SP+ currently has the Dukes 16th and Boise State 23rd.

The MAC is last by a wide margin. It has no team in FPI’s top 75, and 11 of its 13 are below 100th. Western Michigan, at 4-2 and 76th, is the favorite with a 50.1 percent chance of winning the league, and its losses are to Michigan and Boise State. No MAC team has as much as a 1 percent chance of making the playoff.

The Week 7 Board

All times Eastern. All games are Saturday, October 17th. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor, and each percentage is the favorite’s chance of winning. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 6 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. For the first time in five weeks, the market and the Match-Up Predictor have the same favorite in every game on our board. They still disagree on how much. ESPN makes Ohio State close to a coin flip at 52.2 percent, where a four-point line implies about 60. It is also less confident than the line on Notre Dame. It is far more confident than the line on Houston, and somewhat more on Texas.

Predictions

Texas 30, Florida 17. ESPN gives Texas an 87.5 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings put the gap at about 15 points in Austin. SP+ makes it about 16. Florida has given up 83 points in two weeks. South Carolina threw four touchdown passes against what the AP called the league’s worst pass defense. Texas has its own problem. Its offense has been the question all season, and it just lost a game in which its defense allowed one offensive touchdown. But Manning threw for 260 yards and three scores against a far better defense than this one, and Florida has played two straight games without its leading receiver. We do not think Texas scores enough to push this over. Texas wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Texas has no loss left to give. Starting with this one, its next five opponents were all ranked in last week’s AP poll, and ESPN points out that a bad loss to Florida was one reason the committee left Texas out a year ago. A second loss to an unranked team would put the Longhorns on the bubble with Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play. For Florida, a third straight loss ends any playoff talk, and Georgia is still on the schedule. Two other teams have a stake in this. Missouri’s best win is over Florida, and Ole Miss’s worst loss is to Florida, so both need the Gators to stop sliding.

Ohio State 24, Indiana 21. ESPN gives Ohio State a 52.2 percent chance of winning, and FPI rates the Buckeyes 2.7 points better on a neutral field, which is about even in Bloomington. SP+ has the gap at 2.8 points and says the same thing. The market has Ohio State by four. We have Ohio State second and Indiana seventh, and we are still taking the points. Indiana has won 22 in a row, beat Ohio State in December and is at home. What worries us about the Hoosiers is the 65 rushing yards at Nebraska. Turbo Richard had ten yards on eight carries, and Ohio State’s defense is better than Nebraska’s. Hoover and Marsh will have to do it again. We think they keep it close and that Jeremiah Smith is the difference late. Ohio State wins, Indiana covers. Under.

What it means. This is the game that decides how the Big Ten race is shaped. FPI gives Ohio State a 44.5 percent chance of winning the league and Indiana 41.1, and the winner holds the tiebreaker. If Ohio State wins, both teams are still in good position. The Buckeyes would have their best win, and Indiana would be 6-1 with its only loss to a top-five team. The risk for Indiana is its schedule. ESPN says the Hoosiers have played the weakest slate of anyone in its top 12, and Ohio State is the highest-ranked team they will see, so a loss leaves them without a marquee win and without another chance at one before a possible rematch in the Big Ten championship game. If Indiana wins, the Hoosiers are close to a lock and Ohio State is the team in trouble. The Buckeyes would have two losses with a trip to USC and a home game against Oregon still to come. ESPN’s view is that a second loss would not knock them out, but it would open the debate and cost them in seeding.

That is why the result matters to the whole league. We give Ohio State a 78 percent chance of making the playoff and Indiana 74, and after them the Big Ten’s candidates are UCLA at 30, Iowa at 24, USC at 18 and Nebraska at 16. Both CBS and ESPN project three Big Ten teams in the field today, with UCLA as the third. An Ohio State win is the safer result for the conference, because it leaves both of its best teams with one loss or none. An Indiana win makes the Hoosiers safe and puts Ohio State one more loss from the bubble, and then a third bid depends on UCLA staying unbeaten without knowing if it has its quarterback, or on Iowa getting to 11-1 with a schedule that may not include a ranked win.

LSU 34, Mississippi State 27. ESPN gives LSU a 76.8 percent chance of winning, and the line is 11.5. FPI and SP+ both make it about 11.5 as well, so the models agree with the market, and the case for Mississippi State is ours and not theirs. Last week we sided with the bigger LSU number and were wrong, and the reasons to be careful have grown. LSU’s defense came in allowing 220.6 yards a game and gave up 401 to a Kentucky team missing six defenders. Mississippi State has had two weeks to get Kamario Taylor’s ankle right, and we held the Bulldogs in our ranking on the belief that the Alabama game was not a fair look at them. This is where we find out. LSU is the better team, it is at home, and Sam Leavitt threw for 275 yards on Saturday. We think LSU wins a game that stays within one score. LSU wins, Mississippi State covers. Over.

What it means. For LSU this is the first of the elimination games. CBS wrote that the Tigers need to win out, and they still have Alabama and Texas at home. A third loss in mid-October would end it. Mississippi State is 4-1, and a win in Baton Rouge would put it back in the playoff conversation, with Texas and Ole Miss still ahead. A Bulldogs win would also help Missouri, whose only loss is to Mississippi State.

Alabama 31, Tennessee 21. ESPN gives Alabama a 71.2 percent chance of winning, and both the line and FPI make it about a touchdown in Knoxville. SP+ is closer, at about four points, after dropping Alabama to eighth. Tennessee is 5-1 and does not know who its quarterback is. George MacIntyre threw for 247 yards with two interceptions at Arkansas, the Vols turned it over three times, and they needed all of DeSean Bishop’s 138 yards to beat a 2-4 team by seven. Alabama has already won by 28 at Kentucky and by 33 at Mississippi State. The thing to check is Coleman-Williams, who left the Georgia game twice. Georgia held Alabama to 17, and we do not think Tennessee’s defense is Georgia’s, but we also do not see the Vols scoring enough to get this to 57. Alabama wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Alabama can absorb the Georgia loss. It cannot easily absorb two in a row, because the trip to LSU is still ahead and Georgia now holds the tiebreaker for the SEC championship game. ESPN’s point is that it is hard to win a debate as a multi-loss team that did not play for its league title. For Tennessee, this is the win its résumé does not have. The Vols are 5-1 with their only loss to Texas, and beating Alabama would put them in the playoff discussion. A loss leaves them at two with South Carolina, Kentucky and LSU still to play.

Notre Dame 27, BYU 17. ESPN gives Notre Dame a 78.2 percent chance of winning. The line is 12.5, and FPI’s ratings make it about 11 in Provo. SP+ makes it only four, and it has BYU’s defense ninth in the country. Notre Dame has won every game by double digits, but it has not played on the road against a team like this. BYU has held its last two Big 12 opponents to ten points each, and Bachmeier just accounted for 438 yards by himself. He will have to, because ESPN reports that LJ Martin will not play. Notre Dame’s Leonard Moore missed the Stanford game with a concussion and is worth watching during the week. We think the Irish win a slower game than they are used to, and that 12.5 is a few points too many at night in Provo. Notre Dame wins, BYU covers. Under.

What it means. Notre Dame has no conference title to fall back on, so its margin is two games: this one and Miami on November 7th. ESPN notes that if the Irish lose both, their place in the field becomes a real question, and the committee would look hard at the rest of a schedule that has not been strong. A win in Provo would be their best of the season and would all but lock them in. BYU does not need this game to make the playoff, because the Big 12 champion gets in automatically. What it changes is the Cougars’ fallback. Beating Notre Dame would give BYU a win that could carry an at-large case if it loses the league, and it would be the Big 12’s best argument for a second bid. Losing means BYU most likely has to win the conference, and that road goes through Utah.

Houston 34, Oklahoma State 27. ESPN gives Houston a 74.9 percent chance of winning, which is a long way from a line of 3.5. FPI is closer to ESPN, with a gap that works out to about nine points in Houston. SP+ is nearer the line, at about four and a half. All three have Houston by more than 3.5, and we side with them. Houston outgained Kansas State 475 yards to 299 on the road, and Conner Weigman and Overmyer connected for four touchdowns. Oklahoma State is 4-1 under Eric Morris, and Drew Mestemaker threw for 304 yards against UCF, but the Cowboys were tied at halftime at home and gave up four touchdown passes. Both quarterbacks are good enough to get this past 58.5. Houston wins and covers. Over.

What it means. This is close to an elimination game in the Big 12 race. Houston already has a league loss, to Texas Tech, and a second one would leave it needing help from three unbeaten teams. Oklahoma State is 2-0 in the league, and a win here would mean its game against Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th could decide a spot in the conference title game. CBS already lists the Cowboys with Utah, BYU and Texas Tech as the four teams likely to settle the league. Neither team is in our playoff table yet. The winner will have a case to be.

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Quick Hits

We went 4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread and 2-4 on totals. That makes the season 19-15 straight up, 16-16-1 against the spread and 18-10 on totals. All four of last week’s unders lost, one of them by half a point when Ohio State and Iowa landed on 45. On the model-versus-market games, both models were right about Pitt, and where ESPN was more confident than the line we sided with it on Alabama and against it on Florida. Both of those calls came in.

Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23. In August we had Alabama seventh in the SEC and wrote that if Keelon Russell hit, we would look silly by October. It is October. Russell threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a fourth, and Alabama outrushed Mississippi State 179 to 18. Kamario Taylor, limited by an ankle injury from the week before, lost a fumble and threw a pick-six to Dijon Lee Jr. in the first seven minutes, threw a second interception later, was sacked five times and came out early in the fourth quarter. Alabama has scored at least 45 in all five games, the only FBS team to do that, and has won 17 straight in the series.

Mississippi State also lost Fluff Bothwell, who carried once and watched the second half in a boot. The Bulldogs are off this week, then go to LSU.

Missouri 45, Florida 17. We picked Missouri to cover. We did not pick this. Missouri held Jadan Baugh to 13 rushing yards, which ended his streak of five straight 100-yard games. Jamal Roberts ran for more than 200 and Austin Simmons threw for more than 300. It was the first win over a top-ten team in Eli Drinkwitz’s tenure. After the Ole Miss game, Jon Sumrall told his team it had not arrived. A week later Missouri did to Florida what Florida had done to Ole Miss.

Pitt 35, Virginia Tech 33, and it cost Pitt its quarterback. John Love had made all six of his kicks this season. He missed from 36 yards on the final play. Virginia Tech outgained Pitt 499 yards to 295, and Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 434, but he turned it over three times. Mason Heintschel left in the third quarter with what was later reported as a torn ACL, and he is out for the season. Holden Geriner finished the game. Pat Narduzzi used his postgame interview to tell AP voters to wake up. Pitt is 5-0 and will probably be ranked this afternoon. It is also a different team from the one that got there.

Ohio State 31, Iowa 14. Jeremiah Smith caught 11 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns against constant double coverage and became Ohio State’s career leader in receptions and touchdown catches. He already held the yardage record. Through five games he has 44 catches for 823 yards and nine scores. Iowa’s only touchdown came in the fourth quarter. We had the Hawkeyes covering 14. They lost by 17.

Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26. The Irish were a yard from a 28-7 lead when North Carolina made a goal-line stand, drove the field before halftime and then returned the second-half kickoff 98 yards to make it 21-20. Notre Dame answered with a 17-play, 75-yard drive that took more than nine minutes, and it finished with a season-high 241 rushing yards. CJ Carr threw four touchdown passes and ran for a fifth. That is 15 straight wins. It is also 26 points allowed by a defense that had given up 33 in four games.

Penn State and Michigan are out of our twenty. Northwestern opened its new stadium by beating Penn State 34-13 and outrushing the Nittany Lions 413 yards to 48. In August we listed Penn State among the five teams we liked less than the projections. Michigan lost 20-14 at Minnesota. Bryce Underwood was 10 of 21 for 101 yards with two interceptions, and the Wolverines are 0-2 in the Big Ten for the first time since 2014.

Miami 41, Clemson 13. Miami went to Death Valley without three defensive regulars and outrushed Clemson 192 yards to 55. Darian Mensah threw for 227 yards and ran 34 yards for a touchdown, and Cooper Barkate took a screen pass to the end zone on Miami’s second snap. We had Clemson’s 13 exactly right and Miami’s number ten points short.

The rest of the ranked teams mostly survived. Texas Tech beat Colorado 29-7 but did not lead until late in the third quarter. BYU gained 216 yards and beat TCU 17-10. Kentucky rallied to beat South Carolina in overtime on a two-point conversion. USC needed a red-zone stand to hold off Washington 25-21. Tennessee benched freshman Faizon Brandon, got 220 yards and three touchdowns from Desean Bishop and beat Auburn with George MacIntyre at quarterback. Houston trailed UCF 17-0 in the third quarter and won 27-17.

Corrections

Last week we wrote that North Dakota State carried a 28.5 percent playoff chance in ESPN’s FPI and was close behind Boise State for the Group of Six bid. That number belonged to James Madison. North Dakota State, 5-0 in its first FBS season, is at 7.8 percent in the current FPI run. We regret the error.

Power Rankings

Alabama moves up four. A 33-point win on the road over the team we had 18th is the best result anyone posted in Week 5, and CBS notes it is the largest road margin over a ranked opponent in program history. Alabama passes Miami, Notre Dame and Indiana. None of those three has a win like it. In August we ranked Alabama 14th and gave it a 40 percent chance of making the playoff, and the reason we gave was the running game. It just ran for 179 yards and held a ranked opponent to 18. Résumé SP+ now has Alabama first by nearly five points. We keep the Tide one spot behind Georgia because FPI still rates Georgia second and Alabama sixth, and because they settle it themselves on Saturday in Tuscaloosa.

Miami moves up one. The Hurricanes won by 28 on the road with a short-handed defense, and they now have three road wins. FPI gives Miami a 93.2 percent chance to make the playoff, the highest in the country. The jump over Notre Dame is about the week: Miami allowed 13 at Clemson and Notre Dame allowed 26 at North Carolina.

Notre Dame slips two. Nothing is broken at 5-0. But ESPN ranks Notre Dame’s schedule 98th, the Irish have beaten one power-conference team with a winning record, and the defense that carried the résumé just had its first bad day. ESPN’s committee projection moved Alabama past Notre Dame for the same reasons.

Florida falls six. The Gators were outplayed in every phase, and 13 rushing yards from Baugh says the line of scrimmage was lost. We do not drop them further because the Ole Miss win is eight days old and still the second-best result on anyone’s schedule in this part of the ranking. That is also why Florida stays one spot ahead of Ole Miss. Each has one lopsided road loss, and Florida won the game between them by 24. FPI is harsher. It has Florida 15th with a 14.6 percent playoff chance, down from 48.9.

Missouri enters at 15. Yes, that is two spots behind a team it just beat by 28. Missouri’s other power-conference win is over Kansas, and it lost at Mississippi State a week ago. Florida has Ole Miss and a win at Auburn. One more result like Saturday’s and the order flips. ESPN’s committee projection treats it the same way, keeping Florida ninth and leaving Missouri out of its twelve.

Iowa drops two. A 17-point home loss to the No. 2 team in our ranking is not disqualifying, and Iowa’s remaining schedule is the friendliest in the Big Ten. But the offense did not reach the end zone until the fourth quarter, and both of Iowa’s good wins were by a combined four points.

USC drops two. The Trojans beat Washington at home by four and needed a late red-zone stand to do it. They are 5-1 with one win we would call good. Penn State is next, on the road.

Mississippi State drops one. We would normally move a team further after a 33-point home loss. Two things hold it here: the wins at Minnesota and South Carolina and over Missouri are still real, and Taylor was plainly not healthy. The off week matters more to this team than to anyone else in the twenty.

Nebraska enters at 20. The Huskers are 5-0 after beating Maryland 48-23, and Anthony Colandrea threw for 238 yards and ran for 108. FPI ranks them 13th. We take Nebraska over Pitt, which is also 5-0, because Pitt no longer has its quarterback. Indiana comes to Lincoln on Saturday.

Penn State and Michigan leave the ranking. Each is 3-2 and has lost two straight Big Ten games. Michigan is off this week and is weighing changes on offense.

Indiana slips two as Alabama and Miami pass it; the Hoosiers beat Rutgers 47-15. LSU, Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Oregon each move up one into the space Florida left, and Tennessee moves up one as Iowa and USC fall. Texas, Ohio State, Georgia and Ole Miss hold. We said we would move Oregon once we knew its quarterback for UCLA. We still do not. Dante Moore has a concussion, Dan Lanning has given no timetable, and Dylan Raiola is expected to start.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 5 AP poll has Texas first, Georgia second and Alabama up to fifth, with Florida 13th, Mississippi State 14th and Missouri 15th. It brings Pitt in at 25 and drops Iowa out. The real poll was not out at press time. Last week’s projection, which we used on the board, turned out to be off in a few places: the AP had Ohio State fifth, Alabama seventh, Florida eighth and Mississippi State 16th.

FPI’s October 4th run has Ohio State first, then Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Miami and Alabama. It has Florida 15th and Missouri 18th, the same order we do. ESPN’s committee projection goes Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Miami, Alabama, Notre Dame, Indiana, BYU, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU and Oregon. We are lower than the committee projection on Florida, and we still have LSU ahead of Ole Miss against the head-to-head.

SP+’s October 4th run keeps Georgia first and Ohio State second, with Indiana third, Alabama sixth and Texas eighth. It moved LSU up three spots to seventh and has Ole Miss 35th, which is the case for our order there. It has Missouri 15th, exactly where we do, but it puts Florida 20th, behind the Tigers. Résumé SP+ goes the other way, with Florida 18th and Missouri 23rd. Where SP+ disagrees with us most is the bottom of our twenty. It has Nebraska 12th, and it dropped Iowa 15 spots to 34th.

Texas stays first without playing. ESPN ranks the Longhorns first in strength of record and second in strength of schedule. SP+ has their schedule third-hardest and Georgia’s 93rd. The case against them is the offense, which averages 5.3 yards a play, 110th in the country. Oklahoma’s defense is next.

The Playoff Field

Alabama gains 16 points on the week and Florida loses 22. Those are the two big moves. Miami gains four and passes Texas for the highest number on the board. That is about the path and not the team: Miami’s nearest ACC challenger just lost its quarterback, and Texas still has five games against ranked SEC opponents. Ohio State gains four and is back to the 76 we gave it in August. Iowa and Mississippi State each lose ten, USC loses six and Ole Miss loses four as its best remaining argument, the LSU win, sits next to a 24-point loss to a team that just lost by 28. Oregon gives back two with Moore’s return undated.

Nebraska and Missouri join the table. Penn State and Michigan fall into the field, which grows to 1.55 and now also holds Pitt, UCLA, Duke, Wisconsin, Kentucky and Oklahoma State. The Group of Six ticks up to 1.12. FPI gives Boise State a 35.2 percent chance and James Madison 28.0.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 70 (up 10), Duke 7 (up 4), Pitt 6 (down 4), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4 (down 3), Wake Forest 3 (new), Louisville 1 (down 7), Virginia 1 (down 3), field 2 (up 1). Clemson falls into the field. Pitt won the game that was supposed to decide second place and lost Heintschel doing it, so its number goes down. Louisville lost at NC State and is 2-3. Virginia lost by 31 at Florida State. Duke is 4-0 and goes to Miami on November 14th. FPI has Miami at 81.2 percent.

SEC. Georgia 28 (up 1), Texas 25 (up 1), Alabama 24 (up 9), LSU 8 (down 1), Florida 4 (down 8), Ole Miss 4 (down 1), Missouri 2 (new), Tennessee 2 (new), Mississippi State 1 (down 3), field 2. Texas A&M and Oklahoma fall into the field. It is a three-team race at the top, and two of the three play each other on Saturday. Alabama misses both Texas and Florida. We gave the Tide 9 percent in August.

Big Ten. Ohio State 40 (up 5), Indiana 27 (up 2), Oregon 15 (down 1), Nebraska 5 (up 2), Iowa 4 (down 4), USC 3 (down 2), Wisconsin 2 (new), field 4 (up 1). Penn State and Michigan fall into the field. Wisconsin has won four straight since the Notre Dame loss and does not play Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon. Ohio State goes to Indiana on October 17th.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30, Utah 27 (up 1), BYU 24, Oklahoma State 5, Houston 4, Cincinnati 3 (down 1), Kansas State 3, Arizona 2, field 2 (up 1). West Virginia falls into the field at 0-2 in the league after losing 45-42 at Iowa State. Cincinnati took its first loss. Tech is unbeaten and still misses both Utah and BYU, which is why it stays on top, but its offense has now been a problem two weeks running.

Pac-12. Boise State 56 (up 6), Fresno State 15, Oregon State 11 (up 2), Texas State 7 (down 4), San Diego State 5 (down 1), Washington State 4 (down 1), Utah State 1 (down 2), Colorado State 1. Boise beat Utah State, and FPI now puts the Broncos at 66.8 percent and Texas State at 2.3. Boise goes to Fresno State on Saturday in the game we circled in August.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a fifth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. SP+ moved toward us at the top. A week ago it had nine Big Ten teams in its top 25 and eight from the SEC. Now it has eight from the SEC and six from the Big Ten. The Big 12 also has six and the ACC three. We keep the Big Ten second because it has the second- and third-ranked teams in SP+ and the Big 12’s best is ninth.

The SEC has three of our top four and the game of the year so far on Saturday. It also spent the week proving how thin the next tier is. Florida beat Ole Miss by 24 and lost to Missouri by 28. Mississippi State beat Missouri and lost to Alabama by 33. Kentucky, ranked for the first time since 2023, needed overtime at 2-3 South Carolina, where Shane Beamer’s seat is as hot as any in the country. Texas and Oklahoma were both off before Dallas. Georgia beat Vanderbilt 38-14 and still has not played a ranked team.

The Big Ten has the top-rated team in FPI and less behind it than it did a week ago. Ohio State handled the trip that usually bites. Indiana and Nebraska are both 5-0 and meet in Lincoln. But Iowa lost by 17, Penn State and Michigan are a combined 0-4 in league play, and USC was a red-zone stop from losing at home. Wisconsin beat Michigan State 31-3 and Northwestern is 3-1 with a six-point loss at Indiana. UCLA, 4-0, gets Oregon in Eugene.

The Big 12 kept its three unbeatens and did not look good doing it. Texas Tech trailed Colorado into the third quarter, BYU scored 17 at TCU and Utah was off. CBS’s bowl projection now has Utah as the league’s champion and calls it a one-bid league. Houston came from 17 down to beat UCF. Iowa State and West Virginia combined for 1,095 yards, and Aiden Flora ran for 212 and three touchdowns and threw for two more. Iowa State goes to BYU on Friday.

The ACC is Miami and a race for second that got worse. Pitt is 5-0 without its quarterback. Virginia Tech outgained Pitt by 204 yards and lost. Louisville is 2-3. Wake Forest, 4-1, beat Stanford by 54 and has now lost only to Miami. Duke, the defending champion, is 4-0 and still unranked. North Carolina, which scored 26 on Notre Dame, goes to Pitt on Saturday.

The Pac-12 is Boise State’s to lose, and Saturday at Fresno State is where it could. The better Group of Six story is elsewhere. James Madison is 5-0 under Billy Napier and second to Boise in FPI’s playoff odds. North Dakota State beat Wyoming 28-0 to get to 5-0. New Mexico is 4-1 after a 61-7 win over UTEP.

The Week 6 Board

All times Eastern. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 5 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. No line was posted for North Carolina at Pitt, which usually means the market is waiting on a quarterback. Georgia at Alabama gives us a model-versus-market split for the fourth straight week: DraftKings has Georgia by 2.5 and the Match-Up Predictor leans Alabama at 52.6 percent. ESPN is also more confident than the line on Texas and less confident than the line on LSU, where SP+ is on the other side.

Predictions

Pittsburgh 23, North Carolina 20. ESPN’s 74.5 percent almost certainly does not know about Heintschel. Geriner got Pitt home in Blacksburg, but the Panthers gained 295 yards and needed three turnovers and a missed kick. North Carolina is 2-2, and Billy Edwards Jr. just threw three touchdown passes against the best defense he will see. He also threw two interceptions, and the Tar Heels ran for 77 yards. Pitt’s defense and the home field are enough, barely. Pitt wins. With no line and no total posted, there is no call against the number.

Texas 20, Oklahoma 13. In August we gave Texas a 62 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff and Oklahoma a 40 percent chance. Texas is at 83 percent now, and Oklahoma is no longer in our playoff table. The Sooners are 2-2, lost 41-13 at Georgia and have talked about benching John Mateer, who turned it over four times in Athens. But SP+ still has Oklahoma’s defense sixth, next to an offense it ranks 78th, and Texas has not moved the ball on anyone good. It ran for 61 yards in Knoxville. A total of 41.5 says the market sees the same game we do, and 9.5 points is a lot in a game that low. Texas wins, Oklahoma covers. Under.

Oregon 34, UCLA 24. We had Oregon second in the country in August, with the defensive line we ranked first. The Ducks are 12th now, and the quarterback is the question. Raiola was 19 of 25 for 289 yards in relief at USC, and Oregon has had two weeks to build a plan around him. UCLA is 4-0 under Bob Chesney and has had the same two weeks. Lanning compared the Bruins to last year’s Indiana. This is their first real test, on the road, against a far better roster. SP+ has Oregon 10th and UCLA 21st, a gap that works out to about ten points in Eugene. Oregon wins, UCLA covers. Under.

LSU 30, Kentucky 17. Kentucky was not in our August plans, and first-year coach Will Stein has it 4-1 with a win at Texas A&M. Stein ran Oregon’s offense last year. The Wildcats also lost 45-17 at home to Alabama and needed a two-point conversion in overtime to beat South Carolina. LSU’s only loss is by eight at Ole Miss. The models split here. ESPN’s 75.4 percent implies a margin closer to a touchdown than to 9.5. SP+ has LSU seventh with the third-ranked defense in the country and Kentucky 46th, which makes it about 13 points in Lexington. We side with SP+ because Kentucky’s one game against a defense this good ended 45-17. Sam Leavitt’s hamstring is the thing to check during the week. LSU wins and covers. Under.

Alabama 31, Georgia 28. We have Georgia third and Alabama fourth, and we are picking Alabama. The game is in Tuscaloosa, and three spots of power ranking is worth less than home field. Georgia has been the most complete team in the models all year, and it has done it against a schedule ESPN ranked 89th coming into the week. Its one road win is at Arkansas. Alabama has scored 45 or more five times, and Russell has not flinched on the road. SP+ has Alabama’s offense first in the country and Georgia’s defense first, and its ratings make Georgia about a 2.5-point favorite in Tuscaloosa, the same as the market. The concern for Alabama is a defense that gave up 36 to Florida State and let it convert 8 of 15 third downs. Georgia will score. We think Alabama scores last. Alabama wins outright. Over.

That is three underdogs and one favorite against the number, and three unders.

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First, Some Business…

We’ve had two off-field developments within the past several days that could impact the future of college football.

First, the Protect College Sports Act passed a Senate vote by a wide majority. The bill would enshrine several things intended to bring stability that college sports leadership have been unable or unwilling to implement on their own within existing laws. I’ll go into more details and likely impact if/when it becomes law, but in short it will cap compensation for players via both school revenue sharing and NIL, limit individual player transfers to one throughout their eligibility, limit eligibility to five years within the age range the NCAA recently attempted to institute, limit conference expansion, and require schools to maintain a minimum number of non-revenue sports (both women’s and men’s). It will also give the NCAA an antitrust exemption that will allow the organization to enforce the rules in the bill. It faces an uncertain future in the House, and a ticking clock, as the current Congress concludes at the end of this year with midterm elections looming next month.

The other development is based on reporting from Yahoo! Sports’ Ross Dellenger on impending College Football Playoff expansion. Dellenger reports that multiple sources tell him that expansion to 24 teams is coming, and it’s only a matter of when and what exactly it will look like. It appears to be a compromise between competing desires between the two conference powers; the Big Ten and SEC. The Big Ten was pushing for a 24 team playoff comprised mostly of automatic bids for the Power Four conferences, while the SEC preferred a 16-team format that took the top-ranked teams, regardless of conference affiliation except for guaranteeing one spot to the top G6 team. Now it looks like it will be the Top 24 teams, with the G6 guaranteed one spot.

The new playoff is expected to replace conference championship games, which have lost a lot of significance in the expanded CFP era. There is still a matter of needing to make the conferences whole for the money they will lose without those games — the SEC in particular makes about $100M annually for its title game — but it doesn’t sound like that will be an issue. ESPN is currently in an exclusive negotiation window for the broadcast rights that ends October 9, and then the CFP can take it to the open market. FOX now seems very interested in getting a piece, despite being conspicuously absent from bidding when the 12-team model was up for grabs.

Dellenger’s sources indicate the first round is likely to begin the first weekend in December, the traditional weekend for conference title games. The second round, likely to be played at the home stadium of higher seeded teams, won’t be until the third weekend in December. The Saturday in between will continue to be the exclusive domain of the Army-Navy game and Heisman Trophy presentation. What would happen should either Army or Navy make the CFP is not yet determined.

Who Has Separated?

At this point in the season teams that are separating themselves are those headed in the wrong direction. Starting with teams that made the CFP last year, Oklahoma is not in good shape after following-up their loss at Michigan with an uninspiring 14-6 win against New Mexico and then a 41-13 pasting at Georgia. With Texas up next week, followed by five more teams currently in AP Top 25, the Sooners are probably playing for bowl eligibility and perhaps to save Brent Venables’ job.

Texas A&M is another ’25 playoff team facing a very difficult, if not nearly impossible, pathway back. After a shocking 31-21 loss to Kentucky at home, they had the misfortune of facing a salty LSU squad in Death Valley coming off a bitter loss the week before. Coach Mike Elko has been noncommittal on the starting status of QB Marcel Reed, but there doesn’t appear to be much in the way of options behind him. Could be a tough year in College Station.

Michigan got their just desserts by losing on the final play to Iowa (see Week 1 for that reference). The Wolverines offense just isn’t good enough, and with games against Indiana plus road trips to Oregon and Ohio State left, it probably won’t even matter how the playoff selection committee views that WMU game.

Staying in the Big Ten, what a mess at USC. Losing to Oregon (again) is one thing. Losing to Oregon’s backup quarterback, in the wake of a dirty and classless incident that sent starter Dante Moore to the hospital might be the nadir for the Lincoln Riley era. That game had a similar vibe to Oregon’s trip to Penn State last year. The Lions returned many key players from a team that had made the CFP semifinal the season prior and believed it was finally their year. They had that particular game circled the moment the schedule was released — it was their prime time “white out” game. Then they fell apart in the decisive moments and lost in overtime, and never recovered. James Franklin was fired just two weeks later. USC can still save their season, but it feels so similar to ’25 PSU. I would not be shocked if AD Jen Cohen is putting out feelers to see if the $70M-plus buyout they’d owe Riley could be scraped together. She can at least make the plea that she wasn’t the one who made the mistake of hiring him.

Every Week Is Different

We shouldn’t be too surprised that the week after Ole Miss hung on for an exhilarating win — against the ex who left them at the CFP altar for their longtime nemesis, then showed up at their home with said nemesis in tow — that the Rebels fell completely flat on the road in a 52-28 loss at Florida. Being without RB Kewan Lacy, and QB Trinidad Chambliss playing through a thigh bruise, didn’t help, but didn’t affect the outcome either. They have this weekend to heal before a trip to Vanderbilt, but tough matchups against Texas and Georgia loom, so this one didn’t leave them much margin for error.

Some Good Surprises

Was Oklahoma State’s ugly Week 1 loss at Tulsa an aberration, and the team that the very next week snuck up and pants’d Oregon is the real Cowboys? An impressive 41-24 win at West Virginia got the AP voters’ attention, as OSU debuted at #19. Coach Eric Morris followed a familiar pattern for G6-to-P4 coaches by bringing a lot of his players from North Texas last year to Stillwater with him, and after a tough start it appears to be paying off.

If you are a power conference school in search of a new head coach, it would appear you should look no further than Harrisonburg, Virginia. That of course is the home of James Madison University, who gifted Curt Cignetti to defending national champ Indiana, and now has shared the love with the west coast in the form of Bob Chesney, who has UCLA off to a 4-0 start and ranked #23. The current Dukes coach is a familiar name — Billy Napier. Unlike his predecessors, Napier does have power conference head coaching experience, and it did not go well (he was 22-23 in 3-plus seasons at Florida). Perhaps it’s only Big Ten schools that benefit from the JMU pipeline?

Doubling back to the status in the Magnolia State, how about the Mississippi State? Jeff Lebby’s crew sport an impressive win at Minnesota, drove another nail in Shane Beamer’s coffin at South Carolina, then knocked off #19 Missouri Saturday. We’ll see just how real the Bulldogs are this weekend, as they host Alabama.

Top 10

1. Georgia — Ole Miss was primed for a let down, but that level of domination keeps them at the top for me

2. Texas — It wasn’t pretty, but they got the job done in Knoxville, never an easy place to play. I’ll certainly hear any arguments I should have them at #1 like the others

3. Notre Dame — Style points are important with a relatively soft schedule, and they’ve done it so far.

4. Ohio State — Will they take care of business at Kinnick Saturday, or meet the same fate as many other ranked teams have?

5. Miami — Wake Forest pushed the Hurricanes a bit in Week 3 at Winston-Salem. Another potentially sneaky road trip to Clemson awaits, and they’d be wise to take care of business  

6. Indiana — Northwestern gave them enough of a scare that it’s time to ponder whether they adequately replaced the experience-heavy title team

7. Alabama — That 45-17 Week 2 win at Kentucky is really holding up nicely

8. LSU — The Tigers really took their frustrations out on Texas A&M

9.  BYU — Mark your calendar now for Oct 17 when they host Notre Dame. Provo is gonna be rabid.

10. Florida — Great start for GA Tech transfer QB Aaron Philo

No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State — Noon ET, ABC

Line: Alabama -6, O/U 60.5

Can you name the last Mississippi State quarterback to defeat Alabama? If you guessed Dak Prescott, you’d be….incorrect. It was Wesley Carroll back in 2007. Carroll did not have a great day then — he was just 9/21, 100 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT. Lucky for him his Tide counterpart, John Parker Wilson, had a slightly worse day — including an endzone-to-endzone Pick Six. Alright, that’s enough history. Simply pointing out this series has not exactly gone well for MSU.

Focusing on the present, the Tide have mostly toyed with their opponents thus far, the closest win being 50-36 against Florida State, a game they actually trailed 21-6 early in the 2nd Qtr before emphatically storming back. While Alabama’s defense has been stingy overall, that Florida State showing (471 yards allowed, 8/15 3rd downs converted, 2/3 4th downs) raises a red flag. Mississippi State counters with quarterback Kamario Taylor, who torched Missouri for 360 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 win that kept the Bulldogs unbeaten and pushed them into the rankings. This one has the makings of a high-scoring affair and could be defined by whichever defense can get the crucial stop. I don’t think that favors the Bulldogs even with home field and over 40,000 cowbells behind them.

Alabama win/cover

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa — 3:30pm ET, CBS

Line: Ohio State -14.5, O/U 45.5

Should we be a little concerned with Ohio State’s defense? First it was their 4th Quarter collapse at Texas, then last week they gave up 199 yards rushing to Illinois on 6.0 per carry. They did get stops on 6 of 14 3rd downs, but that’s an eyebrow-raising number. Of course, this is Iowa they’re playing, who have averaged just 18 ppg against power conference teams so far. The Hawkeyes win, especially at home, with their defense and field position game that tends to stress offenses used to scoring at will. But they haven’t seen anyone like WR Jeremiah Smith, who had an insane 12 receptions for 217 yards and 4 TDs against the Illini last week. The Hawkeyes must pressure QB Julian Sayin and not give him ample time to find Smith, or this one won’t be close.

Kinnick Stadium is known as the place where Top 5 teams go to die. Since 2008 the Hawkeyes have gone 5-2 against the Top 5 at home. I don’t think they will make it 6-2, but I’m not a fan of the 14.5-point spread either.

Ohio St win/Iowa cover

No. 8 Florida vs. No. 25 Missouri — 3:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Florida -5.5, O/U 57.5

Am I the only one who doesn’t understand the Missouri love? After an 8-5 ’25 season, returning just 49% of their production per SP+ (76th), they climbed to 19th after wins over Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kansas and Troy. They played Mississippi State tight, but gave up two 4th Qtr TDs to lose yet still sit at the edge of the Top 25. They’ll be facing an offense that has averaged nearly 533 yards per game against defenses better than theirs. By the way, the Tiger D is just 104th in defensive EPA per rush and misses and average of 3.6 tackles per game. Yuk. Offensively the Tigers do move the ball well (418.8 ypg) but they struggle to finish drives (they’ve scored on only 76% of possessions in the red zone).

Could Florida experience a letdown on the road after their big thumping of Ole Miss last week? Of course. But my radar says they take care of business in Columbia.

Florida win/cover

The post College Football Week 5 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Quick Hits

We were wrong about Ole Miss at sixth. Florida won 52-28, and it was not close after halftime. Jadan Baugh ran for 142 yards and three touchdowns, Duke Clark added 126, and the Gators ran for 302 yards and six scores. Florida scored touchdowns on five straight second-half drives. Baugh has topped 100 yards in five straight games, which puts him with Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor in school history. Florida had lost 12 in a row to top-five teams.

Ole Miss played without Kewan Lacy, and his replacement ran 11 times for 31 yards. Trinidad Chambliss hurt his left thigh on the second series, rode the exercise bike between drives and still threw for 298. Pete Golding said his team got whipped. We would not argue.

Texas survived Knoxville. Texas won 20-17, and the defense did it again. Colin Simmons, whose boot was precautionary after all, had five sacks, tying Shane Dronett’s program record from 1990. Texas had ten as a team. Simmons also drew an unsportsmanlike flag for a celebration Steve Sarkisian had to answer for afterward. Arch Manning threw for 201 yards with an interception and was sacked six times. Texas committed 11 penalties for 115 yards, gave up a punt-return touchdown and let Tennessee recover an onside kick with 1:22 left. Jelani McDonald knocked down the Hail Mary on the final play. Tennessee still has not beaten the AP’s No. 1 team since 1985.

Oregon won at the Coliseum, and lost Dante Moore doing it. In the second quarter, USC linebacker Desman Stephens hit Moore late on a slide. Stephens was ejected for targeting. Moore left in an ambulance. Dan Lanning said afterward that Moore was moving and would not say more. Dylan Raiola, the Nebraska transfer, went 19 of 25 for 289 yards and two touchdowns, and Oregon won 41-27. The Ducks scored on seven of nine drives and averaged 7.4 yards a snap. Raiola isn’t Moore, but he didn’t play like a backup. USC has lost five straight to Oregon.

Iowa 20, Michigan 19. Hank Brown took Iowa 91 yards and threw a 16-yard touchdown to Reece Vander Zee as time expired. The Hawkeyes got set for that last snap because a Michigan defensive lineman was hurt on the play before and the clock stopped. ESPN’s win probability had Michigan at 98.6 percent with 11 seconds left. It was Iowa’s first road win over a ranked Big Ten team since 2015, and it ended Michigan’s 47-game winning streak when leading at halftime, the longest active run in FBS. Three weeks ago, Michigan beat Western Michigan in the same stadium with an extra second on the clock.

LSU 35, Texas A&M 6. We had A&M covering. A&M was outgained 506 yards to 197. Sam Leavitt went 17 of 23 for 312 and hit Jackson Harris for two touchdowns, one a 57-yarder on fourth down that Lane Kiffin nearly punted away. Marcel Reed completed 10 of 26 for 106 and was pulled in the fourth quarter. The Aggies were eighth in the preseason poll. They are 2-2. LSU paid a price: Leavitt pulled a hamstring, and linebacker Whit Weeks left in a walking boot.

Two home favorites lost to unranked teams. Wake Forest won at Louisville 30-27 as a two-score underdog. Carlos Hernandez caught nine passes for 194 yards, and Gabe Kirschke blocked a 57-yard try in the final seconds. Louisville was flagged nine times for 90 yards and played without two starting defensive backs. It was the third time under Jeff Brohm that Louisville has lost the week after beating a ranked team.

At Beaver Stadium, Wisconsin trailed 17-0 and won 24-20. Colton Joseph threw two early interceptions, then led two long scoring drives, the last ending in a 72-yard touchdown to Jacob Harris on third-and-13 with 1:13 left. It was Wisconsin’s first win in State College since 2003 and Matt Campbell’s first loss at Penn State. Rocco Becht was 12 of 29 for 129 without receiver Koby Howard, who is week to week.

Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24. This was our most model-dependent pick, and the market and SP+ were right. Drew Mestemaker threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns, and Oklahoma State outscored West Virginia 28-10 after halftime. West Virginia ran for 334 yards but threw for 132, and Michael Hawkins Jr. was sacked four times. The Cowboys’ Week 2 win over Oregon looks better every week.

The Heisman board moved. Kamario Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns, including the go-ahead 24-yarder with 3:57 left, as Mississippi State beat Missouri 31-24 to go 4-0. A month ago he was around 150-to-1. DraftKings now has him third at +480, behind Jeremiah Smith (+245) and Darian Mensah (+400). Smith caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns against Illinois, and his 34 career touchdown catches tie David Boston for second in Ohio State history. Chambliss is no longer in the top three.

Power Rankings

Georgia moves up two. Oklahoma came in allowing 7.7 points a game. Georgia led 28-0 at halftime and won by 28 without its top running back, Nate Frazier, who sat with injured ribs. Chris Cole returned a fumble 85 yards for a touchdown. Georgia’s 219 points are the most by the program through four games since 1910. SP+ and FPI both now rate the Bulldogs first in the country. You could make the argument for Georgia at No. 2. We keep Ohio State there because its only loss is by a point at Texas, and Georgia has not played anyone close to that. SP+ ranks the Bulldogs’ schedule 89th.

Florida jumps ten. Four wins, two in the SEC, one on the road at Auburn and one by 24 over the team we had sixth. The Gators have scored at least 40 in every game, the first Florida team to do that since 2001, and Jon Sumrall is the first coach in SEC history with 200 points in his first four games. The models are catching up: SP+ has Florida 12th, FPI tenth and résumé SP+ fifth. Seventh is where the résumé puts them. The next month decides whether it holds: at Missouri on Saturday, at Texas on October 17th and Georgia in Atlanta on October 31st.

Utah rises seven. The Utes have led by 20 or more at halftime of all four games, and they opened Big 12 play with a 31-17 win at Iowa State. SP+ moved them up ten spots to ninth, with the 11th-ranked defense. FPI’s playoff odds now have Utah slightly ahead of Texas Tech, 49.2 percent to 48.3. Utah does not play Tech and does not see BYU until November 7th. We keep them one spot behind the Cougars until then.

Oregon moves up one, and Dante Moore is why it is only one. On merit, a 14-point road win over the team we had 12th is worth more. SP+ has Oregon eighth and FPI ninth. But we do not know when Moore plays again, and the Ducks are off this week. Raiola started two seasons at Nebraska and looked ready on Saturday. We will move Oregon when we know who starts at quarterback against UCLA on October 10th.

Ole Miss falls eight. Two wins over ranked teams got the Rebels to sixth. A 24-point loss to a team favored by 3.5 at kickoff takes them out of the top ten. The defense is the problem. SP+ now ranks it 75th and the team 32nd, and FPI has Ole Miss 19th. Lacy’s shoulder matters. But Florida ran for 302 yards against a defense that allowed 38 to Louisville in Nashville, and that is not an injury. We now have LSU ahead of Ole Miss despite the head-to-head. LSU lost by eight on the road; Ole Miss lost by 24. ESPN’s committee projection keeps the Rebels ahead, and the real committee probably would too. Ole Miss is off, then at Vanderbilt on October 10th.

Iowa climbs three. The 91-yard drive is what people will remember. The more useful fact is that Iowa scored on both red-zone trips and Michigan went 2 of 4. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 with a defense SP+ ranks tenth, and they have won their two real tests by a combined four points. We gave Iowa 20 percent in August. Ohio State comes to Kinnick on Saturday.

USC drops four. The Trojans rallied to tie Oregon with 12:41 left, then never stopped Raiola again. SP+ has USC’s offense third in the country and its defense 49th, down from 35th a week ago. That gap is the team. Lincoln Riley is still looking for the big win, nearly halfway through his fifth season.

Mississippi State enters at 18. Two road wins over power-conference teams, at Minnesota and at South Carolina, and now a home win over ranked Missouri. It was the first win by a ranked Mississippi State team over a ranked opponent since Dak Prescott’s Bulldogs beat Auburn in 2014. Fluff Bothwell ran for 122 yards and caught six passes for 55 more. The defense, 48th in SP+, is the concern. Alabama is next.

Penn State drops four. Up 17-0 at home, the Nittany Lions failed to get a first down on four of their last five possessions. Becht’s 129 passing yards were the story, and Howard’s absence explains some of it. SP+ still likes this team at 15th, on the strength of the 12th-ranked defense. Northwestern on Friday is no gift after what the Wildcats did in Bloomington.

Michigan drops seven. A stuffed fourth-and-1 at the Iowa 18. An interception at the Iowa 2. An unnecessary-roughness flag on third down on Iowa’s final drive. Michigan lost by a point. Running back Jordan Marshall appeared to aggravate an injury, and the line is still without Andrew Sprague. SP+ has the defense ninth and the offense 52nd. The first road game of the season is Saturday at Minnesota.

Texas A&M leaves the ranking. Eleven spots down last week, out this week. The Aggies have lost two straight SEC games, by ten at home and by 29 on the road, and SP+ dropped them 25 spots to 39th.

Texas stays first. Notre Dame and Indiana each slip one as Georgia passes them; Indiana needed Lee Beebe Jr.’s 203 rushing yards to beat Northwestern 29-23 after Turbo Richard was hurt. Miami moves up one as Ole Miss falls. Tennessee slips one as Utah and Iowa pass it, though a three-point loss to the No. 1 team is no demerit. Alabama, LSU, Texas Tech and BYU hold.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 4 AP poll moves Florida to fifth, drops Ole Miss to tenth and brings Mississippi State in at 18th. The real poll was not out at press time. FPI’s post-Week 4 run has Georgia first, Florida tenth and Ole Miss 19th. SP+ as of September 27th has Ole Miss 32nd. We sit between the projected poll and the models on both, with Florida seventh and Ole Miss 14th.

Texas stays first on the best win in the sport. CBS’s overreactions column called the Longhorns a paper tiger and argued they could easily be 2-2. The film supports some of that. Texas ran for 61 yards and converted 3 of 12 third downs in Knoxville, and SP+ has Texas seventh. But SP+ also ranks the Texas résumé third and its schedule fourth-hardest in the country. ESPN’s committee projection keeps Texas first, followed by Ohio State, Georgia, Miami and Notre Dame, and it still has Boise State bumping Oregon out of the bracket.

The Playoff Field

Florida gains 24 points on the week, the biggest rise we have made, and Ole Miss loses 22. Texas moves to 82 and passes Notre Dame; FPI gives the Longhorns 89.6 percent, the highest in the country. Georgia gains seven on a 28-point win over the best defense it has seen. Alabama gains six ahead of a stretch that runs through Starkville and then Georgia at home. Utah gains 16 and Iowa eight. Michigan loses 20, USC 16 and Penn State 14. Indiana gives back four after the Northwestern scare, with Richard and linebacker Rolijah Hardy both hurt. BYU gives back four in its off week as Utah closes in. Texas A&M falls into the field.

The Group of Six rises to 1.10. Boise State won by 25 at Western Michigan, and North Dakota State, 4-0 in its first FBS season, now carries a 28.5 percent playoff chance in FPI. The field grows to 1.39, with Nebraska, UCLA and Pitt all 4-0 and just outside the twenty.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 60 (up 5), Pitt 10 (up 4), Louisville 8 (down 8), Virginia Tech 7 (up 1), SMU 6 (down 2), Virginia 4, Duke 3 (new), Clemson 1 (down 2), field 1 (down 1). Louisville’s home loss to Wake Forest costs it half its number, and the Cardinals go to NC State on Saturday. Friday night in Blacksburg decides who is second. Miami’s only remaining ranked opponent is Notre Dame, which is not a league game.

SEC. Georgia 27 (up 3), Texas 24, Alabama 15 (up 1), Florida 12 (up 8), LSU 9, Ole Miss 5 (down 9), Mississippi State 4 (new), Texas A&M 1 (down 3), Oklahoma 1 (down 2), field 2 (down 2). Georgia moves ahead of Texas for the first time. ESPN’s analytics give the Bulldogs the easiest remaining schedule in the league; they miss Texas, LSU, Tennessee and A&M. Florida has Texas and Georgia in back-to-back games later in October.

Big Ten. Ohio State 35 (up 2), Indiana 25 (down 2), Oregon 16 (up 3), Iowa 8 (new), USC 5 (down 5), Nebraska 3 (new), Penn State 3 (down 4), Michigan 2 (down 4), field 3 (down 1). Oregon’s number assumes Moore comes back. Iowa has a league road win banked and gets Ohio State at home. Ohio State goes to Indiana on October 17th.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30 (down 2), Utah 26 (up 9), BYU 24 (down 3), Oklahoma State 5 (up 2), Houston 4 (down 1), Cincinnati 4 (new), Kansas State 3 (down 3), Arizona 2 (down 1), West Virginia 1 (down 3), field 1. TCU falls into the field after losing to UCF. Tech keeps the top spot on schedule; it plays neither Utah nor BYU. It won 49-14 on Saturday, though Will Hammond threw three interceptions. Cincinnati is 4-0 after beating Kansas State and still has BYU, Tech, Utah and Houston ahead.

Pac-12. Boise State 50 (up 4), Fresno State 15 (up 1), Texas State 11 (up 1), Oregon State 9 (up 2), San Diego State 6 (down 5), Washington State 5 (down 1), Utah State 3, Colorado State 1 (down 2). San Diego State lost 41-16 to Toledo and is 1-3 before its first league game. Boise hosts Utah State on Saturday night.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a fourth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. For the first time, the models split on the top spot.

1. The SEC stays first on results. FPI has eleven SEC teams in its top 25. SP+ has eight, one fewer than the Big Ten, after Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma all fell out. Texas beat Ohio State in Week 2, still the best nonconference win in the sport. Five SEC teams are 4-0: Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Florida and Mississippi State. Four of the top five teams in résumé SP+ are from the SEC. Saturday brings Alabama at Mississippi State, Florida at Missouri and Auburn at Tennessee.
2. The Big Ten has the depth argument this week. SP+ counts nine Big Ten teams in its top 25, FPI eight. Oregon won at USC. Iowa won at Michigan. Wisconsin won at Penn State. UCLA is 4-0 under first-year coach Bob Chesney and routed Maryland in College Park, and Nebraska is 4-0 after winning at Michigan State. Indiana has won 20 straight, the longest active streak in FBS, but needed a two-point stop to get past Northwestern. Against the SEC, the league has Michigan’s 17-10 win over Oklahoma. Against Notre Dame, it is 0-3.
3. The Big 12 holds third. SP+ has four Big 12 teams in its top 25 to the ACC’s three; FPI has it three to two. Utah, Texas Tech and BYU are the top tier, and ESPN’s takeaways column argues the league could put two teams in the field. West Virginia’s win over Virginia in Charlotte is still the head-to-head result between the two leagues. Below the top three it thins. West Virginia lost at home by 17, TCU lost to UCF and is 2-2, and Kansas State lost to Cincinnati.
4. The ACC has Miami and then questions. The Hurricanes beat Central Michigan 52-3 and lead the country in the share of plays that gain ten yards or more. Louisville, which we called clearly second a week ago, lost at home to Wake Forest. The new second tier is unbeaten: Pitt, Virginia Tech and Duke are all 4-0, and Pitt has climbed 17 spots to 20th in SP+. Wake Forest is 12-5 under Jake Dickert. Clemson is 3-1 but lost 51-10 at LSU in the opener and ranks 91st in SP+ offense.
5. The Pac-12 has Boise State and a lot of losses. The Broncos won 32-7 at Western Michigan, the reigning MAC champion. San Diego State lost to Toledo, Colorado State gave up 59 to UTSA, and Washington State lost to Arizona. SP+ ranks Boise 47th, and no other league team is inside the top 60. ESPN’s committee projection still gives Boise the Group of Six bid, but North Dakota State of the Mountain West is now close behind in FPI.

The Week 5 Board

All times Eastern. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 4 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. Pitt at Virginia Tech has the model and the market naming different favorites for the third straight week, and the line has moved further toward Virginia Tech since we took it. ESPN is also more confident than the market in Alabama and Florida. Percentages of 74.2 and 70.2 imply more than 4.5 points.

Predictions

Virginia Tech 24, Pittsburgh 21. In June, SP+ had Virginia Tech 33rd and Pitt 41st. Four games later it has Pitt 20th and Virginia Tech 28th, and ESPN makes Pitt a 57.8 percent favorite. The market has gone the other way. Pitt’s defense ranks 15th in SP+ and has allowed 14 points or fewer in all four games. Mason Heintschel has 13 touchdown passes, and last season Pitt won five straight after he took over as a freshman. Virginia Tech needed everything to beat Boston College 21-14 on Saturday. Friday night in Lane Stadium is worth something, and this should be close. Virginia Tech wins, Pitt covers. Under.

Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 10. Notre Dame had the highest number in our August playoff table, 78 percent, and nothing since has argued with it. The Irish have won 14 straight by double digits, tied for the longest FBS streak in ten seasons. CJ Carr has one interception all year, and SP+ ranks the defense second in the country. North Carolina ranks 88th in SP+ offense and scored 15 against TCU and 20 against Clemson. Notre Dame covers. Under.

Alabama 34, Mississippi State 27. We had Alabama at 40 percent in August. Keelon Russell is the reason it is 62 now. Alabama has scored 40 or more in all four games, and Russell accounted for five touchdowns against South Carolina. Kamario Taylor has 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions, and Mississippi State has gained 400 yards in four straight games. The Bulldogs’ defense is 48th in SP+. Alabama’s is 13th, but it let Florida State convert 8 of 15 third downs. ESPN’s 74.2 percent is more confident than the line, and we lean that way. Alabama covers. Over.

Ohio State 27, Iowa 16. Ohio State was No. 1 in the preseason poll, and we gave it 76 percent in August, second only to Notre Dame. Jeremiah Smith just had 217 yards and four touchdowns. But Illinois ran for 199 yards at six a carry on this defense. Iowa’s defense is tenth in SP+ and its offense 51st, and it has already won two games by a combined four points. Kinnick at 3:30 will not be comfortable. Both models put this around 11 or 12 points, under the 14. Ohio State wins, Iowa covers. Under.

Florida 31, Missouri 27. Florida was not in our August playoff table. Now it sits at 48 percent with the most productive offense in the SEC. Missouri’s defense ranks 14th in SP+, and the Tigers led Mississippi State 24-17 in the fourth quarter before losing. Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns in Starkville, and Cayden Lee caught 11 passes for 156. Florida’s defense is 31st. This is also the game after the biggest win of the Sumrall era, with Texas two weeks out. SP+ makes it close; FPI makes it a touchdown. Florida wins, Missouri covers. Over.

Miami 31, Clemson 13. We gave Miami 71 percent in August; it is 80 now. Clemson opened with a 51-10 loss at LSU and has not scored more than 28 since. Its offense ranks 91st in SP+, and Miami’s defense ranks eighth. Darian Mensah is second in the Heisman odds, and Miami leads the country in explosive plays. Malachi Toney limped off at Wake Forest on September 18th, and his status is worth watching. Death Valley at night will keep it close for a half. Miami covers. Under.

The post 2026 College Football: Reviewing Week 4, Previewing Week 5 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Quick Hits

Our Week 3 picks went 4-4 straight up, 1-6 against the number and 4-2 on totals. Louisville was the only clean sweep. Alabama won by 14 on a 17.5-point line, and Texas Tech won by two laying ten.Three weeks in, we are 10-10 straight up and 6-12-1 against the number.

Chambliss wins the rematch. Kiffin plucked Trinidad Chambliss out of Division II Ferris State and made him a star. On Saturday Chambliss beat him. Ole Miss led 24-7 at the half, LSU scored 17 straight to tie it with 11:21 left, and Chambliss answered with a 75-yard drive capped by a 14-yard keeper against the grain. LSU then went 69 yards in 13 plays and had fourth-and-goal at the 6. Leavitt’s throw was tipped at the line and intercepted in the end zone. Ole Miss is now 24-1 at home since 2023, the best mark in FBS. Chambliss is playing this season because he won his eligibility case in court.

We were wrong about LSU, and it was not the injury. Leavitt was listed doubtful on Wednesday, came off the report Friday night and played. He threw for 153, ran for 63 and accounted for two touchdowns. We took LSU on the strength of a defense that had held Clemson to ten. Ole Miss had 24 by halftime.

Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21, at Kyle Field. The Aggies were 17-point favorites. Kentucky scored 28 unanswered and outgained A&M 196 yards to 20 in the third quarter. Mark Stoops won one road game against a top-10 team in twelve seasons. Will Stein, who was calling Oregon’s offense a year ago, did it in his first try. His defensive coordinator, Jay Bateman, ran A&M’s defense the two previous seasons, and Marcel Reed finished 26 of 49 with two interceptions. Mike Elko told Stein in the handshake line that Kentucky had beaten his team up. A&M has lost three of its last five games dating to last season.

NC State found a way. Up 31-28 with six seconds left and fourth down at its own 5, NC State sent CJ Bailey out to run around in the end zone and take a safety. He got hit, the ball came out, and Vanderbilt fell on it for a 35-31 win. NC State had not trailed all day. Bailey is a three-year starter. Dave Doeren, in his 14th season, said afterward the ball simply had to be protected. After a lopsided opening loss to Virginia, the Wolfpack are 1-2, and Doeren’s name is starting to show up in hot-seat conversations. Vanderbilt is 3-0 behind freshman Jared Curtis.

Keelon Russell is making the throws now, not just the runs. Tuscaloosa booed the playcalling in the first half as Florida State went up 21-6. Then Alabama scored touchdowns on five straight possessions. Russell threw for 320 yards and three scores without an interception and broke a 57-yard touchdown run. He lifts this offense more than any quarterback DeBoer has had here. The defense is the worry. Florida State converted 8 of 15 third downs against a unit that had allowed 1 of 23, and Duce Robinson caught six for 135. Alabama has now won 88 straight home games against unranked teams.

Florida can score. Jon Sumrall’s Gators have averaged 54 points through three games, the most by any Florida team in program history over that stretch. Last season Florida never scored more than 29 in an SEC game. Jadan Baugh has run for at least 136 yards every week, and Aaron Philo has thrown for 200-plus every week. The 44 points at Auburn were the most by a Jordan-Hare visitor in seven years. Now it gets real: five of Florida’s next six opponents are ranked, starting with Ole Miss on Saturday.

West Virginia is 3-0. Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in from Oklahoma in January. On Saturday he went 10 of 17 for 190 and two scores and ran 18 times for 123 and three more as a double-digit underdog beat Virginia 38-27 in Charlotte. About two-thirds of the 39,377 in the building were West Virginia fans, and Rich Rodriguez said it felt like a home game. Hawkins isn’t a polished passer yet, but he’s fast and he’s fearless. Oklahoma State visits Morgantown on Saturday.

Mensah is the Heisman leader. He completed his first 24 passes at Wake Forest, an ACC single-game record, and his 35 straight across two games were two shy of the FBS record. Through three games he has 873 yards, 11 touchdowns, no interceptions and an 89.9 percent completion rate. He may not even be the best player on his offense. Malachi Toney has 28 catches for 444 yards and five scores. Toney limped off Friday, Mark Fletcher Jr. was banged up, and running back CharMar Brown was carted off with a knee injury.

Hot seats. Rutgers is 0-3 for the first time since 2008. Two weeks after managing 346 yards against UMass, the Scarlet Knights put up 460 on USC, and still lost. Florida State looked like a bowl team in Tuscaloosa, but Ashton Daniels threw three interceptions, the Seminoles are 1-2, and the school fired its athletic director this month. Arkansas trustees called for a review of the program’s competitiveness the day before a 45-17 home loss to Georgia, the Razorbacks’ twelfth straight SEC defeat.

Power Rankings

Ole Miss moves up four. The Rebels own two wins over ranked teams, Louisville in Nashville and LSU at home, and nobody else can say that. Chambliss is calm when the pocket isn’t. He led the winning drive after Kewan Lacy left with a shoulder injury, and Lacy’s X-rays were negative. The preview noted Ole Miss led in the second half of every game it played last season, and it held a second-half lead again on Saturday. The schedule does not ease: at Florida Saturday, at Vanderbilt after the bye, at Texas on October 24th, Georgia on November 7th.

Miami slips one. Ole Miss passes the Hurricanes, and Friday was the first time Miami looked mortal. After Mensah’s 24-for-24 start, the offense went three-and-out four straight times and the defense had to win the game. Toney and Fletcher are both being evaluated. Central Michigan visits before the trip to Clemson on October 3rd.

LSU drops two. A 17-point comeback in the most hostile building on the schedule, lost at the goal line, is not a collapse. The injuries are the concern. Trey’Dez Green hurt his right knee on a catch in Ole Miss territory, and Dashawn Spears left with a lower leg injury. Leavitt has four turnovers in two games after missing spring practice, and no receiver has emerged as the clear top target. The math is now unforgiving. No three-loss team has made the 12-team field as an at-large in three seasons, and the loser of Saturday’s game in Baton Rouge will be 2-2.

Florida enters at 17. A road SEC win in a loud building, with a balanced offense and a running back who looks like a problem for anyone. Baugh carried 26 times Saturday and got stronger as the game went on. The preview flagged Florida as the biggest climber in the CBS 138. The next six weeks will tell us how far.

Texas A&M drops eleven. The preview asked whether eleven wins was the new baseline or the outlier. A home loss as a 17-point favorite to a Kentucky team that lost by 28 the week before is a real answer. The Aggies replaced ten draftees and a rebuilt line, and it shows. After the trip to LSU, five of their last eight opponents are currently ranked.

Oklahoma leaves the ranking. The Sooners needed a fourth-down stop in the red zone to beat New Mexico 14-6, a week after losing 17-10 at Michigan. That is 24 points in two games for a team with the fourth-hardest schedule in the country, and the hardest part starts in Athens.

Alabama holds at eighth. Texas Tech, BYU, USC, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Iowa and Utah each move up one as a consequence of the moves above.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 3 AP poll keeps Texas first, moves Ole Miss to fourth, drops Texas A&M out and brings Florida in at 19th. ESPN’s FPI, updated September 20th, has Ohio State and Texas tied at the top with identical ratings, Texas A&M 12th and Ole Miss 13th. We sit between the projected poll and the model on both, with Ole Miss sixth and A&M 20th. Oregon lands in the same place: 21st in the projected poll, ninth in FPI, 14th here.

Texas stays first on its defense, which held UTSA to 143 yards. Arch Manning was 16 of 32, and Colin Simmons left in a walking boot that Steve Sarkisian called precautionary. You could make the argument for Ole Miss at No. 1 on résumé, and CBS’s overreactions column did exactly that. ESPN’s committee projection has the Rebels second. It also leaves Texas Tech out of the bracket for a second straight week, with BYU as the projected Big 12 champion, and ESPN’s buy-sell column is selling the Red Raiders outright.

The Playoff Field

Ole Miss gains fourteen points on the week and Texas A&M loses twenty-four. Oregon comes down six more before its trip to the Coliseum, and a November trip to Columbus is still ahead. USC drops eight after allowing 460 yards to a winless Rutgers team, with Penn State and Indiana still to come on the road. Texas moves to 78 on the best win in the sport, and FPI gives the Longhorns the highest playoff probability in the country. Penn State, Tennessee and Utah rise on three comfortable wins apiece. Texas Tech gives back six. It has no ranked opponent left on its schedule, which means no chance to impress anyone before the Big 12 title game. Alabama gains four. The field grows to 1.34, with Louisville, Mississippi State, Pitt and Oklahoma all sitting just outside the twenty.

Notre Dame and Miami are three points apart in our table, and FPI orders them the same way, 80.8 percent to 77.6. ESPN’s committee projection has Miami ahead, fifth to sixth. The Irish have Purdue, North Carolina and Stanford next. They meet Miami in South Bend on November 7th.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 55 (up 4), Louisville 16 (up 4), SMU 8 (down 5), Pitt 6 (up 3), Virginia Tech 6 (up 1), Virginia 4 (down 3), Clemson 3 (down 3), field 2 (down 1). Louisville now owns the head-to-head with SMU, has no ranked team left on its schedule, and does not play Miami in the regular season. SMU drops five after running for 257 yards and still losing the turnover battle 3-0. Virginia does not play a league game until October 3rd at Florida State.

SEC. Texas 24 (up 3), Georgia 24, Alabama 14 (up 1), Ole Miss 14 (up 6), LSU 9 (down 5), Texas A&M 4 (down 8), Florida 4 (new), Oklahoma 3 (down 1), field 4. Texas draws level with Georgia, and FPI has the Longhorns slightly ahead. Ole Miss holds the tiebreaker over LSU and still has to go to Austin. LSU loses five on the tiebreaker and on Green’s knee. A&M loses eight, with Baton Rouge and Tuscaloosa still ahead and Texas at the end.

Big Ten. Ohio State 33 (up 1), Indiana 27, Oregon 13 (down 2), USC 10 (down 2), Penn State 7 (up 3), Michigan 6 (down 1), field 4 (up 1). Twenty-three points of this table meet at the Coliseum on Saturday night.

Big 12. Texas Tech 32 (down 4), BYU 27 (up 1), Utah 17 (up 4), Kansas State 6 (up 1), Houston 5 (down 3), West Virginia 4 (new), Arizona 3 (down 1), Oklahoma State 3, TCU 2 (down 1), field 1 (down 1). Tech won, but for the second straight week it allowed more yards than in any game last season. Tech misses both BYU and Utah in the regular season, which was always the argument for this number and still is. BYU is 11-2 on the road since 2024. Utah is 14-2 since Devon Dampier arrived and has outscored three opponents 142-24. Houston falls to five; the Cougars’ close-game luck finally ran the other way.

Pac-12. Boise State 46 (up 2), Fresno State 14 (up 3), San Diego State 11 (down 3), Texas State 10 (down 2), Oregon State 7 (up 3), Washington State 6 (down 2), Colorado State 3 (up 1), Utah State 3 (down 2). Boise needed the fourth quarter to beat an FCS team, and the Broncos still gain, because San Diego State lost at home to James Madison.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a third week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12.

1. The SEC. FPI has eleven SEC teams among its top 24, and the middle of the league got stronger on Saturday. Kentucky won at Kyle Field. Florida won at Auburn. Mississippi State trailed South Carolina 13-0 after one quarter, then went on a 41-10 run to win 41-34. Kamario Taylor threw four touchdowns, and the Bulldogs are 3-0 with Missouri and Alabama coming to Starkville next. Vanderbilt and Missouri are unbeaten too. Saturday is the fullest SEC day of the season so far: Texas at Tennessee, Ole Miss at Florida, Oklahoma at Georgia, Texas A&M at LSU and Missouri at Mississippi State.

2. The Big Ten stays second on its top two. FPI still rates Ohio State first in the country at 2-1, and Jeremiah Smith, three games into his junior year, is already the program’s career receiving leader. Indiana has two straight shutouts and has not played anyone. USC is 4-0 and fumbled a snap in the victory formation at Rutgers. Michigan trailed a UTEP team that had lost 51-0 to Oklahoma before waking up. Northwestern beat Colorado 41-7. League play starts in earnest this weekend.

3. The Big 12 keeps third on the head-to-head, and that is now the whole argument. West Virginia beat a ranked Virginia team in Charlotte. Houston came within a two-point try in Lubbock. BYU and Utah look like the class of the league. Below that it was a rough weekend. Colorado, which beat Georgia Tech in the opener, lost 41-7 at Northwestern. Kansas lost to Arizona State in London. Cincinnati needed a 28-point second half to beat Miami of Ohio. FPI has three Big 12 teams and three ACC teams in its top 25, and the best ACC team sits nine spots above the best Big 12 team.

4. The ACC has the best team of the two. Miami showed on Friday that its defense can win a game when the offense stalls. Louisville is clearly second. Keyjuan Brown is explosive, the offense has not turned it over, and the defense, which ranks in the triple digits nationally after allowing 41 to Ole Miss and 31 to SMU, is the one thing between the Cardinals and a date with Miami in the ACC title game. Behind them it thins fast. Virginia lost, NC State lost in the worst possible way, Clemson needed a comeback against North Carolina, and Florida State is 1-2.

5. The Pac-12 had the weekend the Group of Six has been having all year. San Diego State lost at home to James Madison. Colorado State lost to BYU, its 28th straight loss to a ranked team. Utah State was shut out by Utah. Boise State was tied 24-24 with an FCS team with ten minutes left before Dylan Riley broke an 83-yard touchdown run to finish a 198-yard night. The Broncos are still the league’s best team by a distance, and ESPN’s committee projection still gives them the Group of Six bid. They go to Western Michigan on Saturday.

The Week 4 Board

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 3 AP poll. Networks for Wake Forest at Louisville and the two 3:30 SEC games had not been announced at press time. Two games have the model and the market naming different favorites: Oregon at USC and Oklahoma State at West Virginia.

Predictions

Texas 24, Tennessee 20. The Texas defense held UTSA to 143 yards and has not let anyone find a rhythm since halftime against Ohio State. The offense is the question it was in August. Texas backs scored six rushing touchdowns all of last season, and on Saturday Manning ran nine times, none of them designed runs. Tennessee hired Jim Knowles to fix its defense, and this is the first ranked opponent it has seen. Simmons’s boot is worth watching all week. Texas wins, Tennessee covers. Under.

Louisville 31, Wake Forest 21. Louisville’s backs are the most explosive in the ACC. Isaac Brown led the nation at 8.75 yards per carry last season, and Keyjuan Brown just went for 163 on ten carries. Louisville has not turned it over all year. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed 72 points in two real games, though, and Wake Forest has won 11 of its last 16 under Jake Dickert. Gio Lopez threw for 312 against Miami. Seven of Louisville’s eight losses over the previous two seasons came by one score, and this program does not do comfortable. Louisville wins, Wake Forest covers. Under.

Florida 31, Ole Miss 28. Ole Miss comes off the most emotional game on its schedule and goes on the road to the Swamp. Lacy’s X-rays were negative, but he did not finish the LSU game. Florida has scored 54 a game and Baugh is the best back Ole Miss will see before Texas. Chambliss was second in FBS in passing grade under pressure last season and will get his points. The Rebels’ defense gave up 17 straight to LSU before finding its footing, and that is the part that worries us. Florida covers. Over.

Georgia 27, Oklahoma 10. This was Oklahoma’s circle game in August. It no longer looks like a coin flip. Oklahoma has 24 points in its last two games. Georgia ran on 36 of its first 42 plays at Arkansas, and Gunner Stockton is throwing about 15 times a game. That is the old Georgia problem, 126th nationally last season in share of passing yards thrown ten or more yards downfield. It will be enough here. Oklahoma led the nation with 63 tackles for loss last year and will keep it from getting silly. Georgia covers. Under.

Michigan 20, Iowa 16. The lowest total we have printed all season, and it has earned it. Iowa lost four games last season by fifteen points combined and still has the best offensive line on the field. Michigan has the better front seven and held Oklahoma to ten in this building two weeks ago. It also trailed UTEP in the second quarter. Bryce Underwood isn’t a finished product, but he’s the most dangerous player on the field. Iowa does not lose by a lot. Michigan wins, Iowa covers. Under.

West Virginia 31, Oklahoma State 27. ESPN makes West Virginia a 59.7 percent favorite, and the market makes them a home underdog. We side with the model. This was our most contrarian preseason call: Drew Mestemaker led FBS with 4,379 passing yards at North Texas, and Caleb Hawkins had the best rushing grade in the country. Oklahoma State has since lost to Tulsa and beaten Oregon, and nobody knows which one is real. Michael Hawkins is the best player in this game, and Morgantown at night is a hard place to find out. The upset. Over.

LSU 27, Texas A&M 20. The loser is 2-2 and out of margin. A&M has averaged 7.5 regular-season wins since joining the SEC, and last season’s eleven look more like the exception every week. LSU may be without Green, and Leavitt has to stop giving the ball away. Tiger Stadium at night is enough for LSU to win it. Not by nine. ESPN has LSU at 63.2 percent, well short of what an 8.5-point line implies, and we agree with the discount. LSU wins, A&M covers. Under.

Oregon 34, USC 31. Last year USC allowed the fewest air yards per attempt in FBS. This year it has allowed 30 or more in three of four games and gave up 168 rushing yards to Rutgers. Oregon brings the defensive line we ranked first in the country in August. Lanning is 5-7 against top-15 teams, and four of those five wins came by a touchdown or less. This is the game the preview said would put Oregon’s path to a top seed in its own hands. Dante Moore turned down the NFL to play games like this one. Oregon wins outright. Over.

The post 2026 College Football: Reviewing Week 3, Previewing Week 4 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Contender or Pretender?

It’s hard to argue the most disappointing team so far has been Oregon. After needing another 4th Quarter comeback to sneak past pesky, underrated Boise State again in Week 1, the Ducks hit the road to take on Oklahoma State. Oregon defeated the Cowboys 69-3 last season, and OSU began this season with an ugly 24-10 loss at Tulsa. This should have been a tuneup for Oregon, even on the road. Instead they face-planted in a 39-31 loss. The Ducks’ offensive line, which I had questions about headed into the season, struggled all day to open holes for the running game (just 90 yards on 3.0 ypc) and protect QB Dante Moore. Shocking, though, was how bad the defense played. They allowed 554 total yards, 237 on the ground at nearly 6 yards per rush.

In the 12-team playoff era, no Power 4 team is out with one loss, especially an early-season, non-conference loss. But Oregon has really put themselves in a hole. Unless Oklahoma State’s Week 1 loss was an aberration and they go on to wreak havoc in the Big 12, this loss will look very bad on Oregon’s resume. Such that 9-3 seems very unlikely to get them in the playoff. With remaining games at USC, at Ohio State, and against Michigan (more on them in a bit), Dan Lanning had better get his defense right or this season will fall far short of expectations.

Will the Real Wolverines Please Stand Up?

Maybe Michigan was looking ahead to their big Week 2 tilt with Oklahoma visiting the Big House when they sleep-walked through 60 minutes (or, I guess, 59 minutes and 59 seconds) in a controversial Week 1 win over Western Michigan (a.k.a. The Bail Mary). Despite his last-second heroics, QB Bryce Underwood struggled against WMU to the point head coach Kyle Whittingham was noncommittal on his status as the starter.

But Underwood did start what was billed as a matchup of marquee QBs with his Sooner counterpart, John Mateer. And while Underwood shined at times, particularly on a 38-yard touchdown run, his passing numbers were pedestrian in what was largely a defensive slugfest. Unlike Mateer, who threw a costly interception deep in his own territory that set up Michigan’s other touchdown, Underwood was turnover-free, and that made the difference.

As big a win as this was for the Wolverines, it’s hard to see a playoff contender with their current offense. While this loss shouldn’t reflect too poorly on Oklahoma’s resume, they continue to have offensive issues of their own. In what looks like a brutally tough SEC, they have to be viewed as a fringe playoff contender right now.

A G6 Leader Emerges

While Boise State’s marquee matchup of the season may have been Week 1 in Eugene, Saturday’s 38-20 home victory against Memphis will likely be far more consequential. After Memphis dispatched of UNLV in Week 1, the Tigers went back West to face the Broncos, and jumped out to a 17-3 lead early in the 2nd Qtr thanks to several big plays. But it was downhill after that, as the Broncos outscored the visitors 35-3 the rest of the way. Not only does this establish Boise State as the G6 team to beat, but it gives an opening to other Pac-12 hopefuls that they could have a leg-up on the American conference champion if they can win their own conference.

Showdown in the Lone Star State

Easily the game of the season thus far was then-#1 Ohio State visiting Austin against then-#4 Texas. The Buckeyes dominated for nearly three quarters and led 23-3, and frankly it should have been (and ultimately needed to be) a bigger lead than that. The Longhorns made a lot of early mistakes, but cleaned it up and stormed back with touchdowns on each of their last three possessions to pull ahead 24-23 with 25 seconds remaining, completing one of the biggest wins for Texas in many years.

The Buckeye’s offense went stagnant in the 4th — their possessions were a 3-and-out, a 7-play drive that resulted in a missed field goal attempt, and a game-ending interception. Their defense couldn’t get off the field when it mattered most — Texas ran a total of 40 plays on their three TD drives.

Last year ‘Horns coach Steve Sarkisian was quick to claim Texas was punished by the CFP selection committee for losing a close game (14-7) in Columbus last season and missing the playoff as a 9-3 team. Consistent to his word, he stated Monday that Ohio State should not suffer the same fate if they end up going 9-3, or else more and more big name teams will stop scheduling these marquee non-conference games. We’ll see how it plays out for OSU, but Sarkisian makes a fair point. Either way this is a great resume-building win for the Longhorns who face a rough schedule in SEC play.

Top 10

1. Georgia — The Bulldogs have yet to be tested by a strong opponent, and won’t be until Oklahoma visits Athens in Week 4. But they haven’t lacked for style points

2. Texas — Some sloppy play in the first three quarters of the OSU game keeps them just behind the Bulldogs for now.

3. Notre Dame — Another team whose style points will have to do the talking. Their schedule is pretty soft until an October 17 trip to BYU.

4. Ohio State — The Buckeyes had an enormous road win in their grasp, and couldn’t close.

5. Indiana — Feels like the Hoosiers are just on cruise control until their Oct 17 trip to Columbus. 

6. Texas A&M — A very convincing win over Arizona State has the Aggies in strong position as the SEC schedule begins.

7. Miami — The Hurricanes are averaging 61 points per game so far. They need to avoid a letdown before their Nov trip to South Bend, something they’ve struggled with in the past.

8. LSU — Death Valley may still have crime scene tape marking off the field after what they did to Clemson in Week 1. Their trip to Ole Miss this week should be appointment viewing.

9.  Ole Miss — See above.

10. Oklahoma — The offense remains a big concern for the Sooners, even with a healthy John Mateer.

No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech — Friday 8:00pm ET, FOX

Line: Texas Tech -7.5, O/U

We have a benefit in evaluating this one because these two teams already share a common opponent: Oregon State. Both games were more competitive than expected, with OSU covering by double-digits in each, which might simply say more about the Beavers than either the Cougars or Red Raiders.

After a tumultuous offseason for Tech regarding the QB position, the Red Raiders ended up staying in-house with third-year player Will Hammond. Hammond’s results were somewhat underwhelming against both Oregon State and Abilene Christian considering the competition. The Cougars roll with the much more experienced Connor Weigman, who also had mixed results against OSU and a brief Week 2 in a blowout win over Southern. Still, I give a slight edge to Weigman, even headed into a hostile road environment.

I think this game will come down to the defenses. While Tech is more talented on paper, especially up front, Oregon State gouged them in the passing game pretty good — to the tune of 417 yards and 8.0 yards per attempt. Also Houston’s offensive line seemed to get a lot more push against the Beavers than Tech did.

I think I smell an upset here.

Houston win/cover

No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville — 3:30pm ET, ESPN

Line: Louisville -1.5, O/U 59.5

It’s the second of three ranked matchups in Week 3, and it feels like a pivotal early matchup in the ACC. My concerns over the inexperience of Cardinals QB Lincoln Kienholz have largely been assuaged after a strong showing in a heartbreaking 41-38 loss to #8 Ole Miss in Memphis. But as the final score would indicate, I do have concerns over the state of Louisville’s defense — particularly the pass defense, which would seem ripe for Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashlee and QB Kevin Jennings to exploit. The Cards have also been pretty sloppy so far, averaging 86 penalty yards per game.

I think another road team pulls an upset.

SMU win/cover

No. 7 LSU vs. No. 8 Ole Miss — 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: LSU -3, O/U 59.5

Is it too much to ask for just one week free of any Lane Kiffin-connected drama? I was all set to publish this article 24 hours ago when suddenly the news dropped — LSU QB Sam Leavitt was listed on the Wednesday injury report as doubtful. Per SEC rules, that would indicate a less than 25% chance of being available to play. At no time during LSU’s Week 2 game against Louisiana did Leavitt appear to suffer any injury, nor did Kiffin say anything about his health prior to the release of the injury report. Is this just gamesmanship in attempt to tweak Kiffin’s former employer, towards whom he no doubt still feels aggrieved for not allowing him to coach Ole Miss in the CFP after he announced he’d be leaving for LSU? If so, he better hope no one at SEC HQ finds out, as that would no doubt be a violation that could lead to significant punishment from a conference that is already pretty fed up with his schtick.

Anyway, I am going to take this information at face value and assume Leavitt likely will not play. He’s been shaky at times so far this season, and has 4 INTs to just 2 passing TDs (he’s rushed for 5 TDs though). With him out, the Tigers will be relying on either Elon transfer Layden Clark or USC transfer Husan Longstreet, who has attempted 16 passes in his college career thus far. Considering how hostile and emotionally charged the environment in Oxford will be Saturday night, that does not sound like a winning formula.

Ole Miss win/cover

The post College Football 2026 – Week 3 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Quick Hits

Our Week 2 picks went 5-3 straight up, 3-5 against the number and 6-2 on totals. Alabama was the only clean sweep of the week, and it was the one we flagged as the pick that hurts. Texas hit the under by half a point on a game that needed a 21-point fourth quarter to get there.

The three straight-up misses shared a shape. Each was a game where our number sat above the market on a favorite, and two of those favorites lost outright. Two weeks in we are 6-6 straight up and 5-6-1 against the number.

Oregon was a L for us, and everyone else. We had the Ducks fourth in the power rankings and gave them a 71 percent chance of reaching the playoff, the fifth-highest figure overall. The stated reason for both was coordinator continuity – two elite units handed to two first-year play-callers, which the preview called the most interesting continuity test of 2026. Oregon then lost outright in Stillwater as a 22.5-point favorite, a week after needing a comeback to beat Boise State at home by seven. Oklahoma State had lost 21 straight to FBS opponents. Dan Lanning had not lost to an unranked team since 2021.

Oklahoma State; Who Are You? The Cowboys were the fifth of our five teams-we-like-better than most to start the year, and then they lost to Tulsa in their opener. And now they follow that-up with a win vs. Oregon.  Somewhere between those extremes lies what Oklahoma State actually is.

Michigan Moves Back Up.  This shouldn’t have been the surprise it was. After the Western Michigan game, we should have expected the Wolverines to be motivated to show something vs. the Sooners. Beating Oklahoma is a nice win for Michigan, that should help their resume all year.

We faded Minnesota in the preview and then picked them anyway. The preseason case was the plus-24 points-off-turnovers margin and a scoring profile closer to a four-win team than an eight-win one. Minnesota lost 38-13 at home to Mississippi State. The read was right and the pick, labeled a hunch, ignored it. That is the worst thing we did last week and it was entirely self-inflicted.

Alabama is pushing us toward Phil Steele. We had the Tide 15th nationally against his 7th, and wrote that if Keelon Russell hit, Steele is right and we look silly by October. Alabama trailed Kentucky 17-13 at the half and outscored them 32-0 after it. Russell’s athleticism jumps off the screen. Now in Year 3 of his tenure at Alabama, Kalen DeBoer’s squad is pointing up.

Power Rankings

Texas moves up five to first. The Longhorns own the only win over a top-five team in the country, and they got it from 20 points down with 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter. A one-point home win does not by itself establish who is better on a neutral field. But we picked Texas against our own No. 1 last week, and the point of being right is acting on it.

Ohio State drops one.  You could make the argument of dropping OSU behind Notre Dame.  Surrendering a 20 point lead leaves a bad taste. Still, it’s a 1 point loss to a Top 5 team on the road. Ohio State has eight new defensive starters this year. Lots of talk entering the year about how OSU needs to grow during the season. We will see what they take from this experience.

Oregon drops eleven, the largest move we have made. Two first-year coordinators inherited the SP+ No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense, and two games in the Ducks have a seven-point home win over an unranked team and a loss to a team that had not beaten an FBS opponent in 21 tries. Portland State on Friday will tell us nothing.  After that is is a trip to USC which will be highly significant for both programs.

Alabama moves up seven. Forty-five points on the road in an SEC opener. The preview’s case against Alabama was the running game and a profile that went 8-4 against FPI top-40 teams while outscoring them by two points total. Neither Kentucky nor Louisiana-Monroe tests that. But the defense is real and the schedule misses Texas and Ole Miss, which was always Steele’s argument.

Michigan up six and Oklahoma down six, from the same sixty minutes. Michigan’s win was built on the thing Kyle Whittingham was hired to build, holding a top-15 offense to ten points. Bryce Underwood isn’t a finished product, but he’s electric and competitive. The Wolverines were 20th on a defensive argument and the defense showed up. Oklahoma has the fourth-hardest schedule in America and just scored ten points on the easiest ranked opponent it will see for a month. Brent Venables has alternated six-win and ten-win regular seasons for four straight years.

Texas Tech drops two. Winning at Oregon State by eleven, a week after a pedestrian result against Abilene Christian, is not what the best yards-per-play defense of the playoff era looked like. Tommy Castellanos has been added to the QB room with Will Hammond. Important Big 12 game with Houston this Friday.

BYU moves up two. Provo against Arizona was one of the three toss-ups we said would decide their season, and the Cougars erased a halftime deficit to win it. They do not play Texas Tech or Houston.

Utah enters at 20 and Washington leaves. We had Utah outside our top 20 entirely. They beat up Arkansas 43-7 and join the ranking. Washington needed 16-10 against a Utah State team that lost to FCS Idaho State the week before.

Notre Dame, Indiana, Miami, LSU, Texas A&M and Ole Miss each shift a spot as a consequence of the moves above rather than on their own merits.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 2 poll has Texas first, which matches us, and Oregon 21st, which does not. We have the Ducks six spots higher. ESPN’s selection-committee projection leaves Oregon out of the twelve entirely. That was a costly loss for the Ducks yesterday, and puts them in a precarious position going forward.

The sharper disagreement is Texas Tech. We have them eleventh and as the Big 12 favorite. ESPN projects BYU as the league’s champion and leaves Texas Tech out of the bracket.

The Playoff Field

The twenty named teams, the Group of Six bid and the field still sum to twelve. Boise State’s bid strengthens on the head-to-head win over Memphis.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 51 (up 2), SMU 13 (down 1), Louisville 12 (down 1), Virginia 7 (new), Clemson 6 (down 1), Virginia Tech 5 (down 1), Pitt 3 (down 1), field 3. Virginia enters the table for the first time at 2-0 and ranked, Miami gains because nobody behind them did anything, not because 77 points against Florida A&M told us anything.

SEC. Georgia 24 (down 1), Texas 21 (up 4), LSU 14, Alabama 13 (up 4), Texas A&M 12, Ole Miss 8, Oklahoma 4 (down 4), field 4. Texas closes on Georgia without passing them.

Big Ten. Ohio State 32 (up 1), Indiana 27 (up 4), Oregon 15 (down 9), USC 12 (up 3), Michigan 7 (up 4), Penn State 4, field 3.

Big 12. Texas Tech 36 (down 6), BYU 26 (up 4), Utah 13 (up 4), Houston 8 (new), Kansas State 5 (down 2), Arizona 4 (down 4), TCU 3 (down 1), Oklahoma State 3 (new), field 2. This is the league where our numbers moved most and where we are least comfortable.

Pac-12. Boise State 44 (up 6), San Diego State 14 (down 1), Texas State 12 (down 1), Fresno State 11 (down 3), Washington State 8 (down 2), Utah State 5 (down 1), Oregon State 4 (up 1), Colorado State 2 (up 1).  SP+ places Fresno outside the top 90, so they drop here, with Boise the beneficiary.

Conference Overviews

Two weeks in, we rank the Conferences as the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. Again, the SP+ figures below come from its September 8th run and do not include Saturday.

1. The SEC. SP+ put eleven of its top 25 in the league and six of its top eleven, and then Texas went out and beat the No. 1 team in the country, which is the best win anybody owns. Behind that sits a middle class — Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Auburn — that most conferences would run as a top tier. What the league still does not have is a consensus best team, which is what we wrote in August and what this weekend will not settle either. LSU at Ole Miss is Lane Kiffin walking back into Oxford eight months after leaving, on the first road trip of his LSU tenure. Florida at Auburn puts two teams we were higher on than the market against each other, which guarantees one read gets graded and the other gets nothing.
2. The Big Ten, which keeps the spot on Ohio State and Indiana rather than on anything that happened Saturday. Oregon, Ohio State, Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue and Rutgers all lost, four of them to the ACC or SEC, and that is the worst day any league had. The preview’s argument was that the Big Ten had the three best teams in America and seven of the worst. Oregon’s loss only makes you less confident in the overall strength at the top of the conference .The two teams that came out looking better were Michigan, and Indiana, which has not played anybody. A conference with three straight national titles is going to spend September being told its top is thinner than advertised.
3. The Big 12 is the league that changed most and the one we understand least. Five teams in the SP+ top 25, a 43-7 win over Arkansas, and the loudest single result of the weekend in Stillwater. The trouble is that the loudest result came from a team we would have placed fourteenth in this league in August, and the team we placed first has now looked ordinary twice. Texas Tech was pedestrian against Abilene Christian and got all it could handle at Oregon State. This is a deep conference without an apex.
4. The ACC. The league had the best week relative to expectation of anyone: Duke beat Illinois, Wake Forest beat Purdue in double overtime, Boston College beat Rutgers, Pitt handled UCF. Against that, SP+ had exactly two ACC teams in its top 25. On best team the ACC wins easily, with Miami fifth in SP+ and the best Big 12 team fourteenth. On depth the Big 12 wins and not by a little. We went with depth because the Big 12 also owns the better head-to-head result.
5. The Pac-12 is the best of the rest. Boise State beat an unbeaten Memphis team at home after trailing by fourteen, which is the most valuable non-power result of the young season. If those two emerge as their conference champions, the head-to-head should largely settle the Group of Six bid in December. The Broncos have both of their hardest non-conference games behind them.

The Week 3 Board

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages ESPN Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 2 poll. No total had posted for Houston at Texas Tech and no line at all for James Madison at San Diego State as of press time; neither gets a call it cannot support.

One venue note, West Virginia at Virginia is not in Charlottesville. It is at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, with Virginia as the designated home team.

Predictions

Pittsburgh 24, Syracuse 14. Pitt has averaged more sacks per game than anyone but Clemson since 2015 and Syracuse has not solved that particular problem in some time. We are shaving this one — ten points is a win, not a cover at 10.5. Under.

Texas Tech 31, Houston 20. The game we said in August would move this number, and it arrives with Houston 2-0 and ranked 22nd. Our case against the Cougars was never about talent. It was 6-1 in one-possession games, 4-1 in games decided by three or less, the easiest schedule in the league and the largest positive penalty margin in the country. None of that has been tested yet and Lubbock on a Friday night is where it gets tested. We hold Houston outside the top six and take the Red Raiders to cover. No total posted, so no call.

Alabama 38, Florida State 17. Two weeks of second halves that look like a top-ten team and first halves that do not. Florida State has had eleven days to prepare and has a coach who needs a result. We still think Alabama covers, and we think the number of points involved is why Steele has been winning this argument. Over.

Louisville 34, SMU 30. Lincoln Kienholz threw for 332 and four scores against Villanova, which told us nothing, and Kevin Jennings threw for 337 and five against UC Davis, which told us the same. This is the first real Saturday for both. Isaac Brown led the country at 8.75 yards per carry and Clev Lubin is the best returning edge in FBS, and at home that is enough by a possession. SMU has played seventeen ACC games and had a chance to win on the final play of every one of them, which is the reason we cannot take them by more than we are giving. Over.

Auburn 24, Florida 21. The one game on this board where the model and the market name different favorites. ESPN has Auburn at 50.2 percent, DraftKings has Florida laying 2.5. We were the ones who put Auburn first among teams we liked better than the projections, on the strength of 0-6 in one-possession games and a coin that does not land on its edge six times running. Alex Golesh, Byrum Brown and a defense returning most of its production, at home, at night. We take the upset. Under.

LSU 30, Ole Miss 24. Kiffin is 12-2 in his last fourteen SEC games and scored 21-plus in thirteen of them. He is also now walking into Vaught-Hemingway against the quarterback he recruited, on the only road trip LSU takes until October 10th. Sam Leavitt threw three interceptions against Louisiana Tech including a hundred-yard pick-six, and if he does that here it is over early. The reason we take LSU anyway is the defense, which SP+ rated second in the country and which held Clemson to ten. Under.

Virginia 31, West Virginia 17. We faded Virginia in August on the one-score argument and they have answered with two comfortable wins. This is the week to say plainly that the fade is not looking good. Neutral site in Charlotte, which historically favors the ACC team in this particular building. Under.

San Diego State 24, James Madison 21. No line posted, so no call against the number and none on the total. San Diego State’s secondary allowed eight completions on 52 attempts of twenty-plus yards last season, the best rate in FBS. Billy Napier’s first James Madison team put up 87 points yesterday vs. Wagner. How they handle flying across the country, and facing a step-up in competition will be interesting to watch.

The post 2026 College Football: Reviewing Week 2, Previewing Week 3 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

A word on method before anything else, because this is the week the sport overreacts.

Our August work is the starting point and it stays put until something argues it down. The burden sits with the change, not with the position. We are not reshuffling on wins and losses. We are looking for two things.

Significant injuries. And performance that diverged meaningfully from what the game was priced at.

A team that was supposed to win by four touchdowns and won by one has told us something. A team that beat an FCS opponent by fifty has not. Every change below carries a reason. Where there is no reason, there is no change.

Quick Hits

Michigan was our worst read, and the Hail Mary is the least of it. We had the Wolverines 16th on three things: the trenches, Kyle Whittingham, and Jason Beck repairing 23 interceptions in two years. All three were tested against Western Michigan and all three failed. The offensive line, which lost only two starters from a solid unit, badly lost its battle against a rebuilt Broncos front. The defensive front, supposedly a strength on paper, generated one tackle for loss and surrendered a 20-play drive that consumed 13:40. Underwood started 5-of-5 for 61 yards. Between that and the winning play he was 6-of-16 for 62 yards with an interception, locking onto receivers and forcing throws into impossible windows. Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter combined for 59 yards on 16 carries. Western Michigan was, by preseason SP+, the second-worst team Michigan will play all year, and Michigan was outplayed for essentially the full sixty minutes.

Cal was our ACC dark horse and did not close. They lost 45-24 at home to UCLA. Total yardage was comparable and the game turned on three Cal turnovers. What does not overstate it is the fourth quarter. Cal was outscored 21-0 at home in the final quarter. Sagapolutele threw two interceptions to Ta’Shawn James in that quarter. Wayne Knight scored on a 31-yard run one play after the first and a 4-yard run after the second. Anthony Woods finished it from 53. We should also admit the pick was more aggressive than we let on: FTN’s model had Cal 68th in the country entering the season. That was not a mild contrarian position and we did not frame it as the reach it was.

Oklahoma State lost at Tulsa. The Cowboys were our fifth and most contrarian “like better” call. The two programs have met 43 times since 1953, and Oklahoma State had never lost to Tulsa in consecutive meetings until Saturday. The last time Tulsa won back-to-back was 1951-52, when the opponent was still called Oklahoma A&M. The failure was specific: Eric Morris brought two starting linemen with him from North Texas and evidently needed more. Drew Mestemaker’s 29 completions gained 241 yards with two interceptions and a lost fumble, and Caleb Hawkins, a 1,400-yard rusher in Denton, managed 79 yards on 18 carries. FTN had Oklahoma State 63rd preseason. We were the outlier.

Georgia Tech was the first live test and we passed it for the wrong reason. We put the Yellow Jackets outside the ACC’s top six and named Thursday as the first check. Colorado won 14-13 on a Julian Lewis touchdown pass with 42 seconds left, then blocked a 45-yard field goal as time expired. The ranking looks right. The reasoning does not. Our case was 24% of offensive snaps returning and a quarterback who had never started. Alberto Mendoza went 17-of-23 for 237 in his debut. Georgia Tech lost because it ran for 51 yards on 30 carries and fumbled three times in the first half.

There is a second problem with claiming this one. We treated Colorado as a middling Big 12 opponent. Deion Sanders’ transfer class looked interesting. Gideon Lampron, Liona Lefau and Randon Fontenette combined for 22 tackles, and a rebuilt front held Justice Haynes and Malachi Hosley to 3.1 yards per carry. Georgia Tech expected that game. Losing it reframes the night from “we were right” to “we do not yet know what that loss was worth,” and Colorado hosts Weber State on Saturday, so will be awhile before we learn more about the Buffaloes.

Georgia Tech still has Tennessee in Atlanta this week, and Georgia to end the year in their remaining out-of-conference slate.

Might have had Virginia wrong. We conceded after Week 0 that our lower-than-consensus call looks off. Nothing has improved it. Bill Connelly at ESPN described the Cavaliers as playing like grown men against NC State and establishing a physicality much of the ACC will struggle to match.

The model-versus-market flags finished 1-3. We named four games where ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor disagreed with the market. Georgia Tech was the largest gap on any favorite, ESPN at 58.5% against a spread implying roughly 69%, and Georgia Tech lost. The model was right to shave. LSU was the reverse: ESPN had the Tigers at 75.3% against a number implying about 80%, and LSU won by 41. Washington was the same story, ESPN at 87.9% against a line that moved from 21.5 to 23.5 during the week, and the Huskies won by 14 without covering. SMU, the widest gap on the board at 51.5% against a market implying the high 50s, won by exactly three as a three-point favorite. Straight up, the model finished 1-3. Against the number it finished 2-1 with a push.

What went right: Boise State. The task, as we defined it, was not to win at Autzen but to avoid handing the committee a data point. The Broncos were tied 27-27 in the fourth quarter, won the fourth-down battle 2-of-3 against Oregon’s 0-for-3, and lost 34-27 as three-and-a-half-touchdown underdogs. This was Boise’s second trip to Eugene in three seasons and the second one-score result; the 2024 visit ended 37-34 on a field goal as time expired, and that competitive loss was a meaningful part of why the Broncos made the playoff as the No. 3 seed. ESPN’s own playoff projection now notes the same precedent and slots Boise State into the bracket as the Group of Six representative.

And Louisville. We liked Louisville more than most in our preview. We expected a quality game vs. Ole Miss. Ole Miss won 41-38 on a 48-yard field goal at the buzzer. Lincoln Kienholz, making his first career start after three seasons on Ohio State’s bench, threw for 307 with two touchdowns and no interceptions and ran for a team-best 69 yards. Louisville turned it over zero times, erased a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit and lost to a walk-off.  One thing to note is that Isaac Brown was held to 36 yards on 16 carries after leading the nation at 8.8 per carry last season. Louisville scored 38 on a top-ten SEC defense without him doing anything.

And Auburn.  Auburn was another team we had above consensus, and they got a win in a 1 score game after going 0-6 in them last year. Byrum Brown threw three interceptions and no touchdowns and Auburn won anyway, surviving DJ Lagway’s fourth-and-10 conversion and fourth-and-goal touchdown before a failed two-point pass ended it.

Three Corrections

We got three venues wrong in our Season and Week 1 Previews.

NC State and Virginia played at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. The season preview said São Paulo, but the game was moved.

Louisville and Ole Miss did not play in Oxford. The Week 1 preview called it a road game and asked what a Louisville win in Oxford would mean. It was a neutral-site game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, the inaugural Liberty Mutual Music City Kickoff, with Ole Miss as designated home team.

Wisconsin and Notre Dame did not play in South Bend. Our board listed it as a road game for Wisconsin. It was played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, part of a two-game neutral-site series.

Power Rankings

Five teams moved. Fourteen shifted only because someone above or below them moved, which is displacement. Miami cleared our threshold and we held them anyway, for reasons below.

Michigan, down four, and twenty may be generous. The largest deviation on the board: a 27.5-point favorite winning by one. The replay is worth explaining. NBC’s officiating analyst Terry McAulay said on air that his network’s clock was synced to the stadium clock, that the ball was nowhere near a player at zero, and that he could not see how the Big Ten arrived at one second. No additional angles aired during the review and the referee announced the change without explanation. The Big Ten released video and audio of its replay crew just before midnight, and that footage justified the decision. Either the stadium clock or the replay clock was out of sync, which is an inexcusable production failure either way.

None of which is the reason Michigan drops. Michigan drops because the specific things we ranked them on all failed in the same game. Oklahoma’s front led the nation with 63 tackles for loss and visits Saturday. If it exposes the same problems, Michigan leaves this list.

Oregon, down two. A 17.5-point deviation, and unlike Michigan’s it lands directly on something we published. We put Oregon second while calling the loss of both coordinators the single most interesting continuity test of 2026. Oregon outgained Boise State 497-274, got a career-high 378 from Dante Moore, and won by seven. Ten penalties for 90 yards, 4-of-12 on third down, 0-for-3 on fourth, no turnovers forced, and beaten on special teams. That is a finishing problem, and finishing is what coordinators do. Lanning said afterward there was a lot to fix.

LSU, up three. Plus 30.5 against the spread, the largest positive figure on the board, and against a Power Four opponent rather than an overmatched one. LSU rushed for 309 yards, gained 644 in total, and led 336-54 in yardage at halftime. Sam Leavitt completed a 20-yard pass to four different receivers. Jordan Ross and Princewill Umanmielen combined for four tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks, and Ross returned an interception for a score. Kiffin retained Blake Baker, which now looks like the shrewdest decision of his hire. Our August reservation about LSU was never the talent, it was the schedule split. One night does not bend a schedule that ranks 19th-toughest by SP+ and 11th by FPI. We feel considerably better about LSU than we did on Saturday morning, but the number doesn’t change significantly with that remaining schedule.

USC, up two. Plus 15.5 and a shutout. Maiava completed 92% for 349 and three scores, the best completion percentage at USC since 1995, and has five touchdowns against six incompletions in two games. Five of the top six pass-catchers were freshmen or sophomores. Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and Trent Mosley both cleared 100 yards, which no two USC freshmen had done since the school began keeping records in 1973. USC has not gone scoreless-against in back-to-back first halves since 2009 and scored two safeties, believed to be a program first. Gary Patterson’s unit is the story.

Miami, held at 7. Plus 14.5, which clears our threshold, and we are not moving them. Our published question about Miami was never the skill talent. It was whether a plus-30 sack differential travels after losing 14,601 career snaps off both lines. Mensah went 27-of-30 for 401 and five scores and Toney caught 12 for a school-record 234 and three touchdowns. Miami recorded two tackles for loss. And Stanford was missing three injured projected starting offensive linemen, plus receiver Nico Brown and edge rusher Gabe Kaminski. Miami’s backs also gained 76 yards on 22 carries through three quarters, which is its own small flag.

Injuries. Oklahoma played without two projected offensive line starters and still shut out UTEP while scoring on every possession through three quarters. That is a hold, not a drop, and it may matter in Ann Arbor. Notre Dame’s status on Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa remains unconfirmed; his recovery from a November ACL tear has run ahead of expectations, but clearance is not certain. USC’s three Week 0 absences remain unconfirmed. Ole Miss lost Kewan Lacy to a thigh injury that Pete Golding did not think was serious.

A note on method. FTN’s simulation model also moves teams on performance against expectation, and moves faster than we do. Readers who think we are slow have a visible benchmark. We think being slower in September is the point.

And a useful check. CBS published its projection of Tuesday’s AP poll after we had finished the table above, and framed the entire week’s movement as “the shifting nature of performance against expectations.” Our same thought process. The results line up more than they diverge: both have Ohio State first and Notre Dame second, both move LSU from 11th to exactly 8th, both drop Michigan from 16th to exactly 20th, and both land USC at 13th. Four of our five moves match a poll projection built from voter behavior rather than from a stated rule.

Three places we disagree. CBS drops Oregon five spots to 7th; we drop them two, because the coordinator question was already priced into our second-place ranking and a 223-yard yardage advantage is not the profile of a team in trouble. CBS raises Miami from 7th to 5th; we hold, because Stanford was missing three projected starting offensive linemen and Miami still managed two tackles for loss, so our published question went unasked rather than unanswered. And CBS drops Texas Tech two spots for the field goals against Abilene Christian; we hold at 9th, because our preseason work already named the quarterback as the weakness. That said, would have liked more vs. an FCS opponent, so maybe CBS has it right there.

One more line from that projection matters to us: Louisville is projected to fall out of the AP poll entirely after losing by three to No. 9 on a walk-off. We are keeping the Cardinals at 13% in the ACC.

The Playoff Field

These are our estimated probabilities of reaching the twelve-team field. Not rankings and not seeds. It is why Notre Dame carries the highest percentage (78%) chance of making the CFP,  while sitting second in the power rankings.

The Group of Six line does not move. It is roughly one full berth and it stays roughly one full berth no matter who claims it. What changed is who. Boise State went from 34% to 38% inside the Pac-12 and now appears in ESPN’s projected bracket as the Group of Six representative. The size of the slice is fixed; the name on it got clearer.

The Florida State Promise

We wrote in the Week 1 preview that Florida State appears nowhere in our published ACC title odds, and that if the Seminoles won at home on Labor Day night, the field number gets revisited in Week 2. Competitive game, but SMU got the win in Tallahassee.

The game came with a power outage of more than ninety minutes pushed kickoff to 9:15 p.m. Eastern, and Doak Campbell ran on partial power throughout. No replay review. No headset communication between coaches and players. No PA announcer, no sideline tablets, no working scoreboard. The clock came off the field.

Under those conditions Florida State was the better story and the worse team. Ashton Daniels threw for 125 yards on 12-of-23 and closed the night with a ball in the dirt and a throw into triple coverage. Samuel Singleton Jr. tied it at 24 on a 39-yard catch and run with 8:17 left. SMU’s Kevin Jennings was the best player on the field and still turned it over three times, including an interception in the end zone. Add Florida State’s 34-17 win over New Mexico State as a 30-point favorite, in which it led 17-10 late in the third, and the early September read is that the Seminoles are what most people thought they were. Not good enough. Norvell’s seat has to be getting warm.

SMU goes from 13% to 14% to win the ACC, after the road conference win.

Conference Projections

ACC: Miami 49%, SMU 14%, Louisville 13%, Clemson 7%, Virginia Tech 6%, Pitt 4%, field 7%. Preseason was Miami 46%, SMU 13%, Louisville 13%, Clemson 11%, Virginia Tech 6%, Pitt 4%, field 7%.

Clemson comes down four points. Not because of the margin itself, but because the margin discredited the specific thing the 11% was built on. We put Clemson third in the ACC on the arrival of Tom Allen and Chad Morris. Clemson produced its first first down at 10:19 of the first quarter and waited nearly thirty minutes for a second. It finished with 145 yards, its fewest since 2009, and allowed 644, its most since 2012. Vizzina’s 17 dropbacks gained 82 yards. Tait Reynolds’ nine attempts, including three sacks, netted four. Connelly called the Morris hire lazy and reductive, which is the direct rebuttal to the bet we published.

Miami takes three of those four points. This is a move about the field, not about Miami. We just declined to move them in the power rankings because they did not answer our question about the trenches. Winning the ACC is a different question, and it got easier when the most credible challenger collapsed. The last point goes to the field, where the Florida State promise gets settled Monday night.

The counterweight Miami should not enjoy. The ACC went 1-5 against the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC in Week 1, with a minus-80 point margin, the worst in league history, and recorded its most season-opening losses to current Power Four opponents ever. Miami’s path got easier and Miami’s résumé got worse in the same weekend. If the league does not improve, the November trip to Notre Dame becomes the only thing on the schedule the committee will weigh.

Two ACC numbers now look light. Pitt at 4% beat a decent Miami of Ohio team 59-14 with Mason Heintschel throwing for 453 yards and seven touchdowns, and could plausibly be 6-1 when it visits Miami in Week 8. Virginia Tech at 6% beat VMI 73-3 with genuine physicality in James Franklin’s debut, Jeffrey Overton Jr. and Marcellous Hawkins Jr. combining for 173 yards and five scores. Neither result proves much on its own. Both are worth watching before we defend those figures again.

Where the systems disagree, and why. Miami rises in the conference table and holds in the power rankings. These are not inconsistencies. The power ranking asks how good a team is. The conference number asks who wins a league. The playoff number asks who qualifies for a bracket. The same week can answer one and not the others.

SEC. Georgia 25%, Texas 17%, LSU 14% (from 11), Texas A&M 12%, Alabama 9%, Oklahoma 8%, Ole Miss 8% (from 10), field 7% (from 8). LSU is the biggest single move in the article, and it’s larger than the two-point playoff bump because the conference question and the schedule question are different. Ole Miss loses two for winning by three against a team we rank outside the top 20. The field loses one, mostly Missouri losing Hardy and Green.

Big Ten. Ohio State 31% (from 29), Oregon 24% (from 26), Indiana 23%, USC 9% (from 7), Penn State 4%, Michigan 3% (from 5), field 6%. Ohio State rises because two teams both gave ground in the same week, not because of Ball State. Penn State holds — we published a fade, and a shutout of Marshall doesn’t retire it.

Big 12. Texas Tech 42% (from 40), BYU 22%, Utah 9%, Arizona 8%, Kansas State 7%, TCU 4%, field 8% (from 10). Identical logic to Miami and Clemson in the ACC. Tech didn’t improve, Oklahoma State collapsed out of the field.

Pac-12. Boise State 38% (from 34), San Diego State 15%, Fresno State 14% (from 18), Texas State 13%, Washington State 10%, Utah State 6%, Oregon State 3%, Colorado State 1%. Our published preview had Fresno second at 18%, returning twelve starters, hosting Boise on October 10th in the game that decides the league. They then lost 39-0 to USC. Boise took the No. 2 team to the fourth quarter. The four point swing here might not be enough.

Conference Overviews

The ACC. The league we called bunched is bunching in the wrong direction, but the race may be better for it. Clemson lost by 41 and is effectively out of the conversation. Cal lost at home by 21. Georgia Tech lost to Colorado. Miami looked like a national title team on offense. Below that, Virginia, Louisville, Pitt and Virginia Tech all made real first impressions, and Duke, the defending champion, beat Tulane 17-3. SMU got the road win vs. FSU.

The SEC. LSU was the most impressive team in the country and it is not close. Kiffin’s return to Oxford on September 19th is one of the marquee events of the early season, and Ole Miss did its part by surviving Louisville. Alabama beat East Carolina 48-10 and ran for 227 yards, the specific number our lower-than-consensus call was built against. Keelon Russell went 18-of-30 for 256 with no interceptions and one sack, rushed for 23 on the game’s first third down, and moved the chains on seven of his twelve carries. Daniel Hill and freshman EJ Crowell combined for 84 on 16. We wrote that if Russell hits, Phil Steele is right and we look silly by October. FTN has Alabama eighth to our fifteenth. That two outlets on the other side of our call, and Kentucky is Saturday. Every SEC team won in Week 1.

The Big Ten. Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3 and held them under three yards per play, with Jeremiah Smith catching eight for 151 and 237 yards rushing as a team. Indiana beat North Texas 52-16 but was outgained on the ground 152-134 and currently sits 115th in non-garbage-time rushing success rate. Josh Hoover went 13-of-16 for 231 and four scores with no turnovers, which matters for a quarterback who lost the ball 42 times in 31 TCU starts. Penn State opened the Matt Campbell era 45-0 over Marshall with exactly one rush longer than ten yards. Rutgers lost at home to UMass, a program that was 0-32 against power-conference opponents before Thursday, and travels to Boston College on Friday.

The Big 12. Houston beat Oregon State 33-20 but did not cover. Texas Tech did not find a gear. Oklahoma State lost at Tulsa. BYU beat Utah Tech 63-7, and FTN has them 21st to our fourteenth. Arizona visits Provo on Saturday. Baylor lost by one and lost DJ Lagway to another injury, which is the live question in Waco.

The Pac-12. Boise State was the best thing that happened to the new league. ESPN now has the Broncos in its projected bracket and describes them as front-runners for the Group of Six berth if they keep playing like that. Memphis, which beat UNLV 27-21 in Week 0, visits Boise on Saturday. Washington State lost the Apple Cup 24-10 but held Washington’s backs to 3.3 yards per carry and missed two field goals in a one-score fourth quarter. Oregon State was competitive vs. Houston.

The Week 2 Board

Spreads and totals are DraftKings. Win probabilities are ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. All eight games are Saturday, September 12th.

The two marquee games carry the two lowest totals on the board. Everything else sits between 48.5 and 59.5. The market expects the best games this week to be grind it out games, and the Ohio State–Texas history supports it: three straight meetings, none of them shootouts, including 14-7 in Columbus last season.

Predictions

Oklahoma 24, Michigan 17. Oklahoma covers. Michigan’s problem is the one Western Michigan already exposed: protecting Bryce Underwood behind a line that lost its battle to a MAC front. Oklahoma led the nation with 63 tackles for loss and is missing two projected offensive line starters of its own, which is why this is seven and not fourteen. Under.

Texas A&M 38, Arizona State 17. Cover. The Aggies held Missouri State to 67 yards and four first downs, the fewest by an A&M opponent since 1978, and Marcel Reed completed nine of his final ten passes. Arizona State sits 40th in FTN’s model. Over.

Oregon 38, Oklahoma State 13. Cover. The harshest available view of our own miss. Oklahoma State scored 10 at Tulsa behind an offensive line that gave up ten hurries, sits 63rd in FTN, and now hosts a team that outgained Boise State by 223 yards. The market implies 18.5 Cowboy points. We do not believe them. Under.

BYU 31, Arizona 20. Cover. Our preview called this one of three toss-ups deciding BYU’s season, and we have the Cougars a bit higher than FTN does. Taking BYU here is putting money where the preview already was. If we are wrong, the fourteenth ranking is the thing that was wrong. Over.

Minnesota 27, Mississippi State 24. The upset, and our least confident pick. We faded Minnesota on a plus-24 turnover margin, so picking them is uncomfortable. But a road SEC favorite that FTN ranks 51st, against a home team at 55th, at minus 1.5, is a price built on conference letters rather than teams. This is a hunch, not a finding. Under.

Alabama 34, Kentucky 20. Cover, and it is the pick that hurts. We have Alabama fifteenth, Steele has them seventh, FTN has them eighth, and Week 1 looked we had it wrong. Kentucky sits 44th in FTN. Taking Alabama to cover 10.5 on the road is honest about where the evidence points. Over.

Tennessee 31, Georgia Tech 24. Tennessee wins, Georgia Tech covers. Over.

Texas 23, Ohio State 20. Texas covers, it’s close as you would expect. The Buckeye defense that lost three of the top eleven picks in the draft. There is always more talent in Columbus, but still a lot to ask of the young Buckeyes in Week 2. One note that could point to Ohio State. Ohio State rushed for 237 and held Ball State to 45, while Texas was outgained on the ground 161-156 by Texas State, and Sarkisian conceded the line had growing pains and the run game has to be better. If we lose this one, that is the reason. Under.

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