Quick Hits

Notre Dame 31, Miami 24. CJ Carr threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns, and Notre Dame led 24-3 early in the third quarter on its way to beating No. 1 Miami in South Bend. Miami was playing its first game without receiver Malachi Toney. Darian Mensah threw three touchdown passes to get the Hurricanes within a touchdown twice. With 3:36 left, Elija Lofton appeared to catch a fourth-down pass in the end zone that would have made it 31-30. Luke Talich knocked the ball away, and the officials ruled it incomplete. Mario Cristobal said he was “beyond upset” about the call. The win also settled last season’s 27-24 Miami win, the game that kept Notre Dame out of the playoff. CBS’s Winners and Losers now has Carr leading the Heisman conversation.

Georgia 42, Ole Miss 7. Last week we called Georgia’s passing game “the open question going into Oxford.” Gunner Stockton answered it efficiently, completing 9 of 15 passes for 186 yards and four touchdowns and running for another score. Georgia led 28-0 at halftime and ran for 295 yards. Ole Miss finished with 252 yards of offense. The loss ended the Rebels’ 16-game home winning streak, and Kirby Smart won in Oxford for the first time in three tries.

Utah 28, BYU 20. Devon Dampier accounted for four touchdowns and 266 yards, and Utah intercepted Bear Bachmeier four times. Two of those came in the end zone in the fourth quarter. BYU led 20-14 at halftime, and Utah shut it out after the break. The win snapped a three-game losing streak in the rivalry. ESPN notes that Morgan Scalley is 10-0 as Utah’s coach, counting last year’s bowl, and is only the sixth FBS coach in 40 years to start a career with 10 straight wins. This also ends the promise we have carried since Week 9: BYU stayed ahead of Utah “until they play on November 7th.” They played, and Utah won.

Tennessee 34, Kentucky 6, and Alabama 31, LSU 13. Tennessee scored 24 straight points in the second half, forced three turnovers and held Kentucky to two field goals in two red-zone trips. Arion Carter had 13 tackles and two sacks. In Baton Rouge, Keelon Russell played through an ankle injury and threw three touchdown passes. LSU went 0 for 4 on fourth down and outgained Alabama 457-285, but scored one touchdown. Lane Kiffin is now 0-6 against Alabama. CBS’s Winners and Losers printed 31-14; the AP recap and ESPN both have 31-13, and we use 31-13. Kentucky lost, so last week’s three-team cycle scenario did not happen.

Texas 34, Missouri 20. Arch Manning threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns. The go-ahead score was a pass to Raleek Brown with 5:03 left, and Graceson Littleton’s interception on Missouri’s next drive set up Brown’s clinching run. The AP calls it Texas’s fourth win this season over a top-20 opponent. There were five video reviews, and all five went against Missouri. One ruled a Manning throw that went 14 yards forward a fumble, recovered by Texas for a first down. Texas tied the game three plays later.

Oregon 41, Ohio State 28. Ohio State led 14-0 late in the first quarter. Then Oregon scored 38 straight points, with Dylan Raiola passing for 257 yards and Dierre Hill Jr. running for two touchdowns. Luke Fahey completed 36 of 50 passes for 360 yards in his second start for the injured Julian Sayin. The AP says this is the first time Ohio State has lost two straight since 2011, and the first time it has lost back-to-back games to unranked opponents since October 1992. CBS adds that the Buckeyes last had three regular-season losses in 2011.

UCLA 34, Minnesota 20. Ty Dieffenbach had 303 yards on just eight completions, including two 75-yard fourth-quarter touchdowns to Aidan Mizell on consecutive one-play drives. Minnesota missed two 56-yard field goals, and UCLA scored a touchdown soon after each. The Bruins are 9-0 and 6-0 in the Big Ten. Their last three games are Illinois on Friday, at Michigan and USC.

Around the bubble. Houston beat Cincinnati 31-24 on Re’Shaun Sanford II’s 51-yard run with 5:10 left. Texas Tech held on against West Virginia 53-48, with Tommy Castellanos throwing five touchdown passes in his second start. The Red Raiders have now allowed at least 255 rushing yards in two of their last three games. Iowa won 24-10 at Northwestern and has allowed two touchdowns in three games. Arizona beat TCU 29-28 after recovering an onside kick in the final two minutes. CBS reports that SMU beat Virginia Tech 51-28, Wake Forest beat FCS Merrimack 77-0 without quarterback Gio Lopez, and South Carolina beat Texas A&M for its fourth straight win, though LaNorris Sellers left limping after the clinching touchdown. Per ESPN, Florida lost 23-7 to Oklahoma and now has a losing SEC record. Michigan lost 15-6 at home to Michigan State.

The Group of Six. Boise State played without Maddux Madsen and still won 64-38 at Colorado State. Max Cutforth went 16 of 19 for 317 yards and four touchdowns and ran for a fifth. Dylan Riley had 300 all-purpose yards and is up to 1,241 rushing yards. New Mexico beat Nevada 31-3 in its first game as an AP-ranked team and held the Wolf Pack to minus-9 rushing yards. James Madison won 54-23 at Southern Miss with JC Evans back from his opening-week injury. UTSA lost to FAU, which CBS called a blowout. The standings show Texas State won at Oregon State. Ohio beat Akron 28-20 and is the MAC’s only unbeaten team in league play.

Coaching. Florida State fired Mike Norvell early in the week. Per ESPN, the Seminoles then won at Boston College for their first true road win since November 25th, 2023. Nebraska fired offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen after a 24-13 loss to Illinois. CBS’s Winners and Losers says the Huskers have lost three straight; the standings and ESPN both show four, after a 5-0 start. Jason Witten called Oklahoma’s offense for the first time, and the Sooners held the ball for nearly 38 minutes. Kyle Whittingham’s Michigan is 5-4, while Scalley’s Utah is 9-0.

Corrections

The committee and margin of victory. In last week’s committee section we wrote that “the committee caps margin at 24 points.” That overstates it. CFP executive director Rich Clark has said that margin of victory is counted up to 24 points in the CFP’s strength-of-schedule data, and only there. In the committee’s discussion, he said, margin is not a hard-and-fast rule, and members look at the whole game. Our two other committee facts from last week check out: the CFP’s August release confirms this was the first of six rankings, and NCAA.com’s 2026 guide lists 13 committee members.

Power Rankings

Georgia (up 1 to No. 1). Georgia has the best set of wins of any one-loss team: at Alabama on October 10th, Florida in Atlanta, and now 42-7 at Ole Miss. Its one loss, 27-24 at home to Auburn, is still the worst loss among the contenders, and we said so all along. But Saturday was the most complete performance we have seen from anyone this season. SP+ agrees: it has Georgia at 31.3, almost seven points clear of No. 2. Missouri comes to Athens on Saturday, then Georgia goes to South Carolina.

Utah (up 3 to No. 2). Utah is 9-0 and now has two good wins, Houston last month and BYU on Saturday. Résumé SP+ has Utah first in the country. The schedule is still the weak point: ESPN had Utah’s strength of schedule 81st entering the week, and SP+ has it 76th. That is why Utah is second, not first. But 9-0 with the BYU win is not a résumé we would put below one-loss teams other than Georgia.

Notre Dame (up 1 to No. 3). This is the win the Irish needed. They beat the committee’s No. 1 team and led by 21 doing it. The remaining schedule is Boston College, SMU and at Syracuse. ESPN notes that the committee marked Notre Dame down for having only one win over a .500 team. Now it has two.

Miami (down 3 to No. 4). A seven-point road loss to a top-five team is the kind of loss that costs a few spots and no more. Miami still has the best chance in the ACC to win the league: 74.1 percent in FPI. Without Toney, though, the offense looked like a different unit. Miami was held scoreless in the first quarter for the first time since last year’s title game. Its best win is now at Wake Forest in September. That is why Indiana and UCLA are close behind.

Indiana (up 1 to No. 5). The Hoosiers were off and move up one spot because Miami lost. Committee chair Hunter Yurachek said Indiana is 5-1 against opponents at .500 or better. ESPN’s FPI gives Indiana a 78.9 percent chance of beating USC at home on Saturday; the Match-Up Predictor on our board has 78.2. Indiana still has no win over a team in the committee’s top 25. Saturday is its chance to get one.

UCLA (up 1 to No. 6). The Bruins keep winning, and the win at Minnesota counts for more than it looks: Minnesota took Indiana to overtime in Bloomington. UCLA also won at Oregon, and Oregon just beat Ohio State in Columbus. The schedule is still thin. ESPN had UCLA’s strength of schedule 78th; SP+ has it 92nd. Three of its opponents rank 94th or worse in FPI.

Texas (up 1 to No. 7). Texas has four wins over teams in the committee’s top 25: Ohio State, Ole Miss, Tennessee on the road, and now Missouri on the road. That is the most in the country, by CBS’s count. Its two losses, to Oklahoma and Florida, were each by a field goal. The offense still turns the ball over: ESPN counts 14 turnovers, 117th nationally. The defense ranks fourth in SP+.

Tennessee (up 3 to No. 8). The Vols’ 34-6 win over Kentucky is their second statement win, after beating Alabama 26-10 in Knoxville on October 17th. Their losses are to Texas, which is ahead of them, and to South Carolina by three on the road. The committee had Tennessee 13th and Alabama fifth. We do not see it that way. Tennessee won that game by 16 at home, and nothing since has given us a reason to override the result. Both teams won big on Saturday, so the gap between them did not change.

Alabama (up 3 to No. 9). The win at LSU was clean, even though Alabama was outgained by 172 yards. The Tide stopped LSU on all four of its fourth-down tries and intercepted Sam Leavitt at its own 24. Alabama’s losses are to Georgia and Tennessee, both ranked ahead of it. Its wins include Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU and a road win at Mississippi State. Alabama’s remaining games are at Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn. It will be favored in all three, and ESPN notes that the Iron Bowl is at home.

Texas Tech (holds at No. 10). Texas Tech is 8-1, but beating West Virginia 53-48 at home did not help its case. West Virginia’s defense ranks second-worst in FBS, according to the AP. Texas Tech also has a problem against the run: it has allowed 255 or more rushing yards in two of its last three games. The Red Raiders play neither Utah nor BYU, and they remain the likeliest opponent for Utah in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma State is next.

BYU (down 8 to No. 11). The loss at Utah was close, on the road, and in a rivalry game, so it is not a bad loss. But it is BYU’s second loss in three weeks, after the double-overtime loss at UCF, and four interceptions decided it. BYU’s win over Notre Dame looks better after Saturday, which is why BYU is still ahead of every other two-loss team except the three SEC teams with stronger wins. BYU’s remaining games are Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati.

Wake Forest (up 4 to No. 12). Wake Forest is 8-1, and its only loss is to Miami. Beating Merrimack 77-0 told us nothing. What we learn from comes Saturday at SMU, which is 7-2 and just scored 51 on Virginia Tech. Gio Lopez had an extra week to heal; whether he plays is the question to watch.

Houston (up 5 to No. 13). Houston beat Cincinnati, and the teams around it lost. Both of Houston’s losses were one-score road losses, at Utah and at Texas Tech. Its best win is Oklahoma State. Houston goes to Colorado on Friday.

USC (up 3 to No. 14). USC was off, and every team that had been around it lost. It goes to Indiana on Saturday, and last week we said what that game means for USC: “If USC wins at Indiana on November 14th, this paragraph changes.” The Ohio State paragraph changed this week anyway (see below).

Kentucky (down 2 to No. 15). Kentucky’s two losses are both by 28 points or more: 45-17 at home to Alabama and 34-6 at Tennessee. Its good wins, LSU and South Carolina, both came in overtime. ESPN had Kentucky second in its strength-of-record metric entering the week, which helps explain why the committee ranked it sixth. We had Kentucky 13th then, and we have it lower now. It has three games left: Florida at home, at Missouri and Louisville.

Oregon (new at No. 16). Oregon has won two straight against ranked teams, Northwestern and then Ohio State in Columbus. It also has wins over USC and Boise State. Oregon is 6-3, and its loss to UCLA came at home. The question of Oregon against USC gets its own paragraph below.

Iowa (new at No. 17). Iowa has wins over Wisconsin (30-0), Michigan and now Northwestern on the road. Its losses are to Minnesota and to Ohio State. The defense ranks fifth in SP+ and has allowed two touchdowns in three games.

South Carolina (new at No. 18). The Gamecocks started 0-3 in the SEC, losing to Mississippi State, Alabama and Kentucky. They have won four straight since, including Florida and Tennessee, and beat Texas A&M on Saturday. Sellers’s health after he limped off is the question going to Arkansas.

Boise State (up 1 to No. 19). The Broncos have won eight straight since losing their opener at Oregon by seven. Saturday answered last week’s quarterback question, at least against a defense that came in allowing 42.4 points a game, the most in FBS. Boise’s next game, Oregon State at home, is the one CBS calls a must-win to stay in front of the Group of Six.

Ohio State (down 11 to No. 20). Last week we said, “If the Buckeyes lose to Oregon on Saturday, they drop again.” They lost by 13 at home after leading 14-0. The drop is 11 spots, the most our movement rule allows. We think it is earned. We have now seen two full games of this team without Sayin, and Ohio State was pushed around on both lines in each. The FPI and SP+ ratings still have Ohio State fifth and fourth, but most of the games those ratings are built on came with Sayin at quarterback.

Why Notre Dame is ahead of BYU. BYU beat Notre Dame 28-24 in Provo on October 17th. That was a four-point road loss, which is the kind of result our rule allows us to override. Since then, Notre Dame has beaten Miami and BYU has lost to UCF and Utah. Notre Dame is 8-1 and BYU is 7-2.

Why USC is ahead of Oregon. Oregon beat USC 41-27 at the Coliseum on September 26th. That margin is not close, and it was on USC’s field. We are keeping USC ahead for the reason we gave last week: USC has the better record, 7-2 to 6-3, and our standard was that the head-to-head result would carry more weight if Oregon won out. Oregon has started that run with a win at Ohio State. We will say plainly that this one is close. If Oregon beats Michigan on Saturday and USC loses at Indiana, Oregon moves ahead.

Why Iowa is ahead of Ohio State. Ohio State beat Iowa 31-14 at Iowa City on October 3rd, with Sayin throwing for 324 yards. By our head-to-head rule, that result should hold. This is an exception, and it is the injury exception in reverse. Last week, Sayin’s absence was why Ohio State stayed ahead of USC despite a lopsided loss. This week it works the other way: the team that beat Iowa is not the team Ohio State has played the last two Saturdays. Iowa also has the better record, 7-2 to 6-3, and Ohio State is the team that has slipped. If Sayin returns and Ohio State wins out, we will look at it again.

Why Tennessee is ahead of South Carolina. Carried over: South Carolina beat Tennessee 27-24 in Columbia on October 24th. It was a three-point road loss, and Tennessee has the stronger body of work, including wins over Alabama and Kentucky.

Carried over. Indiana over Ohio State: Ohio State won 19-15 in Bloomington with Sayin playing most of the game. That position is easier to hold now, with Indiana 8-1 and Ohio State 6-3. Last week’s Boise State-over-Oregon position no longer applies, since Oregon is now ahead.

Why the rest held. Texas Tech held at 10th: it won, but BYU’s drop put it directly behind the Red Raiders and nobody below did enough to pass them.

Who’s out. Ole Miss (from 14th), LSU (15th) and Missouri (19th) all lost and all have three losses. Ole Miss lost 42-7 at home. LSU is 0-3 against the committee’s top 25, according to CBS. Missouri lost at home to Texas.

Who’s next. Ole Miss, LSU, New Mexico (8-1), Arizona (7-2), SMU (7-2) and Missouri, in about that order. New Mexico is 23rd in SP+ and has one loss, at Oklahoma, but SP+ ranks its schedule 128th.

The outside check

Last week we promised to set our ranking next to the committee’s first one. Here it is: the committee’s November 3rd top 25, from NCAA.com, next to our ranking from the same week.

Our top two matched the committee’s. The big differences were Notre Dame (our 4th, its 11th), BYU (3rd, 9th), Alabama (12th, 5th) and Kentucky (13th, 6th). Week 10 settled most of them. Notre Dame beat the committee’s No. 1 team. Alabama won at LSU, and ESPN wrote that the win confirmed the committee’s call on the Tide. Kentucky lost by 28. The committee was right about Alabama and Kentucky, and we have moved toward it on both. We were right to keep Notre Dame high, and we expect the committee to move toward us on Tuesday.

One disagreement is left, and it is about principle: Tennessee and Alabama. Yurachek said head-to-head between those two “is not going to come into play at this point because of where those teams were reviewed in the ranking process.” He said the same about South Carolina’s win over Tennessee. In other words, the committee only looks at a head-to-head result when it considers the two teams close. Our rule works the other way: the result stands unless it was close. CBS’s bowl projection expects the committee to keep Alabama ahead.

For Tuesday, ESPN’s projection has Georgia, Utah, Alabama, Texas, Notre Dame, Miami, Indiana, UCLA, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas Tech and BYU, with BYU left out to make room for Boise State. CBS projects the AP poll this afternoon as 1 Georgia, 2 Utah, 3 Notre Dame, 4 UCLA, 5 Miami, 6 Alabama, 7 Indiana, 8 Texas, 9 Tennessee and 10 Texas Tech. Every projection has Georgia first and Utah second, as we do. The biggest gap between us and both outside projections is still Alabama: we have it ninth, ESPN third, CBS sixth.

Best vs. Most Deserving

The Power Rankings reward what teams have done. This list is a different question: who would we expect to win on a neutral field next Saturday? It leans on how teams are playing now, and on FPI and SP+ (both runs dated November 8th).

Ohio State is not here. FPI has the Buckeyes fifth and SP+ fourth. This is our judgment, not the models’. Both ratings are built mostly on games Sayin played, and the team without him has lost two straight by 12 and 13 points. Last week we had Ohio State eighth on this list. After Saturday, we would not pick this version of the team against anyone above.

Alabama is fourth here and ninth in our rankings. That is the clearest gap between what Alabama has done and how well it plays. It sits behind Tennessee in the Power Rankings because of the head-to-head result, not because we think Tennessee is better.

LSU and Oregon are in; UCLA and Texas Tech are out. LSU is seventh in both models and lost by 18 at home Saturday. Its problem is results, not quality, and three losses keep it out of our 20. Oregon’s 41-28 win at Ohio State moved it into our list. UCLA (27th in FPI, 11th in SP+) and Texas Tech (14th and 13th) have the records but not the ratings.

Utah is seventh. That is the gap between second in our rankings and 10th in FPI. Utah’s résumé is the best in the country by résumé SP+. Its ratings are top-10 but not elite.

Notre Dame against Miami. Last week we wrote that “Saturday in South Bend answers this directly.” It did. Notre Dame stays ahead.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of the team’s chance to make the 12-team field. Change is measured against our preseason number.

The 22 teams add up to 10.25. With the Group of Six line (1.03) and the field (0.72), the total is 12.00.

The week’s moves. Ohio State fell 24 points, from 56 to 32, the most our rule allows. BYU fell 22, LSU 22, Ole Miss 20, Kentucky 16, Missouri 6 and Miami 5. On the way up: Alabama and Tennessee gained 22 each, Utah 16, Notre Dame 14, Texas 12, UCLA 10, Wake Forest 8, Georgia 7, Texas Tech and Houston 4 each, Indiana 2 and USC 1. Indiana and USC were both idle; they rose slightly because teams around them lost. Oregon (18), Iowa (14) and South Carolina (5) come out of the field, which is why the field drops from 1.13 to 0.72.

Why Ohio State is still at 32. FPI says 41.8. ESPN’s projection already has Ohio State out, and CBS’s bowl projection says even three more wins may not convince the committee. ESPN also expects three-loss teams to get in this year, which is what keeps the number this high. Northwestern comes to Columbus on Saturday. The 32 is mostly the chance that Sayin returns and the Buckeyes win out.

Alabama at 80 and Texas at 78. FPI has Alabama at 92.5 and Texas at 74.5. With Chattanooga and Vanderbilt on the schedule, Alabama looks safe unless it loses the Iron Bowl. Texas still has to go to LSU and to Texas A&M. ESPN’s point on Texas: at three losses, it would need to be 10th or better to be safe, because if Notre Dame finishes 11th or 12th, Boise State takes the other of those two spots.

Tennessee at 50. FPI says 35.5. We are higher because we have Tennessee eighth. The committee had it 13th, and the committee’s ranking is the one that counts. LSU on November 21st is the game: FPI gives Tennessee less than a 50 percent chance there, ESPN reports.

Kentucky at 32. FPI has 36.5. CBS’s bowl projection gets Kentucky in at 10-2, which means winning out against Florida, at Missouri and Louisville. One more loss and Kentucky is out.

What the Committee Will Have to Argue About

Last week we listed the arguments the committee would face in its first ranking. Now we know how it settled them, and Tuesday’s second ranking will show whether Week 10 changed anything.

What it decided

• Ohio State without Sayin. The committee put Ohio State 12th, in the bracket. Ohio State lost again Saturday, and ESPN now projects it out.
• USC’s win against its losses. The committee ranked USC 20th, eight spots below the Ohio State team USC beat by 12. It gave the Trojans little credit for that result.
• BYU or Notre Dame. It chose BYU, 9th to 11th, which honors the head-to-head result. ESPN reported that the committee marked Notre Dame down for having just one win over a .500 team.
• UCLA’s and Utah’s schedules. Utah third, UCLA eighth. Yurachek called their résumés “almost identical,” but said Utah looked like the better team on film.
• Kentucky’s résumé against its efficiency numbers. The résumé won: Kentucky was sixth. Then it lost 34-6.
• Georgia’s home loss. It did not hurt Georgia, which was second.
• Miami’s schedule. Not a problem in the first ranking: Miami was first.
• Indiana’s “quality loss.” The committee pointed to Indiana’s defense and its 5-1 record against teams at .500 or better.
• The two-loss SEC teams. Five SEC teams in the top 10: Alabama (5th), Kentucky (6th), Texas (7th), Ole Miss (10th) and Georgia. Tennessee was 13th and LSU 14th.
• Boise State with Madsen hurt. Boise was 25th, the only Group of Six team in the top 25, and the 12th seed in the projected bracket.

Coming later

• Notre Dame’s position. If Notre Dame is in the top 12, it is in. ESPN also points out that if the Irish finish 11th or 12th, the team in the other of those spots is bumped for the top Group of Six team. Every team ranked 9th through 12th will want Notre Dame ranked higher.
• Three-loss teams. ESPN calls three-loss at-large teams likely this year. CBS projects two three-loss SEC teams into the bracket, which would make five SEC teams, a single-league record. The SEC has four teams with two league losses (Alabama, Kentucky, Texas and Tennessee) and five more with three.
• Two Big 12 teams. Utah beating BYU probably took BYU out of the top 12, ESPN wrote. The second Big 12 team is now more likely Texas Tech, if it reaches the title game.
• Miami as ACC runner-up. ESPN warns that Miami might not have enough on its résumé to make the top 12 without winning the ACC.
• Tennessee and Alabama. If they finish with the same record, CBS expects the committee to keep Alabama ahead despite Tennessee’s win.
• USC at Indiana. It is Indiana’s first chance at a win over a team in the committee’s top 25. For USC, a win would put it back in the playoff conversation.
• A 12-1 UCLA. ESPN thinks UCLA is in if it wins two of its last three, whatever happens in the Big Ten title game.

The Group of Six Race

For the first time this season there is a second serious candidate. Boise State is still the favorite, and Cutforth answered the quarterback question for one week. But New Mexico is 8-1, ranked 22nd in the AP poll, and 23rd in SP+, four spots ahead of Boise.

Playoff percentages are FPI’s. Records and league records come from the conference standings. Ranks are from the November 8th FPI and SP+ runs. FPI’s run appears to predate Texas State’s win at Oregon State, since it still lists Oregon State at 5-3.

Who is best. SP+ now has three Group of Six teams ahead of Boise: Liberty (22nd), New Mexico (23rd) and James Madison (26th). Boise is 27th, all four within 1.2 points. FPI still has Boise first among them by a wide margin, 33rd to New Mexico’s 42nd. New Mexico’s defense ranks seventh in SP+; Boise’s ranks 65th. Boise’s offense is seventh. Which one is “best” depends on which model you trust.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. Boise. The committee ranked it last week and did not rank New Mexico. Boise’s résumé SP+ is 10th; New Mexico’s is 13th. SP+ ranks Boise’s schedule 73rd, New Mexico’s 128th and Liberty’s 131st. Boise’s one loss is by seven at Oregon, which just beat Ohio State. New Mexico’s loss is at Oklahoma, which is 5-4.

Who else. Liberty has the CUSA lead (FPI gives it 76.2 percent to win the league) but the weakest schedule in this group. North Texas is 5-0 in the American, with Memphis a game back. UTSA’s loss to FAU hurt it badly: SP+ dropped it 12 spots. James Madison has two losses.

Our split. Of the 1.03 Group of Six line: Boise State 0.64, New Mexico 0.27, Liberty 0.05, North Texas 0.03, and UTSA, James Madison, Louisiana Tech and the rest 0.01 each. Last week we had Boise 0.58, New Mexico 0.22 and UTSA 0.12. Boise’s number goes up because it won without Madsen. New Mexico’s goes up because it is the clear second choice now that UTSA has a second loss. Oregon State (0.03 last week) drops out after losing to Texas State.

This week. Oregon State at Boise State. UNLV at New Mexico on Saturday the 14th. James Madison at UConn. FPI’s conference odds: Pac-12 Boise State 74.8 percent; Mountain West New Mexico 71.2; American North Texas 53.2, Memphis 27.7, UTSA 11.8; CUSA Liberty 76.2; Sun Belt James Madison 47.0, Louisiana Tech 40.2; MAC Western Michigan 36.5, Toledo 31.1, Ohio 22.8.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 72 (down 3), Wake Forest 20 (up 4), SMU 5 (up 2), Louisville 2 (new), Duke 1, Virginia Tech 0 (down 4), Pitt 0 (down 1). Miami’s loss to Notre Dame doesn’t count in the league, where it is still 6-0, with Wake Forest 5-1. Wake goes to SMU on Saturday, and that game is the one that could change this. Virginia Tech is out after losing 51-28 at SMU. FPI: Miami 74.1, Wake Forest 20.7, SMU 2.9, Louisville 2.1.

SEC. Georgia 52 (up 9), Alabama 26 (up 14), Texas 10 (up 4), Tennessee 8 (up 3), Kentucky 3 (down 12), field 1 (South Carolina). Ole Miss (down 9), LSU (down 7) and Missouri (down 2) are now at zero. Georgia is 6-1 in the league and Alabama 5-2. Texas, Tennessee and Kentucky are all two-loss teams in the league. Georgia holds the tiebreaker over Alabama; Alabama holds it over Kentucky. FPI: Georgia 52.2, Alabama 32.7, Texas 9.0, Tennessee 4.2, Kentucky 1.1.

Big Ten. Indiana 40 (up 8), UCLA 34 (up 12), Ohio State 10 (down 24), Oregon 8 (up 7), USC 5 (up 2), Iowa 2, Wisconsin 1, Northwestern 0 (down 1), field 0 (down 4). UCLA is 6-0 and Indiana 5-1. They do not meet in the regular season, and ESPN calls UCLA–Indiana the likeliest title-game matchup. Six teams have two league losses: Iowa, USC, Illinois, Ohio State, Oregon and Wisconsin. Indiana is ahead of UCLA here, as it is in FPI, because both models rate Indiana higher and would favor it in a title game. Indiana’s remaining games are USC, at Washington and Purdue. FPI: Indiana 43.8, UCLA 19.2, Oregon 16.0, Ohio State 13.9, USC 3.9.

Big 12. Utah 58 (up 14), Texas Tech 26 (up 2), BYU 6 (down 17), Houston 5 (up 1), Oklahoma State 2 (up 1), Arizona 2 (down 1), Baylor 1. Utah is 6-0 and Texas Tech 5-1, and they do not play. BYU, Arizona, Baylor, Houston and Oklahoma State are all 4-2. Utah goes to Arizona and Texas Tech to Oklahoma State on Saturday. FPI: Utah 55.7, Texas Tech 18.0, BYU 8.0, Houston 8.0, Oklahoma State 4.5, Arizona 4.3.

Pac-12. Boise State 76 (up 6), Texas State 10 (up 7), Oregon State 8 (down 9), Fresno State 2 (down 5), San Diego State 2 (up 1), Utah State 1, Colorado State 1, Washington State 0. Boise is 5-0, and Texas State, Oregon State, San Diego State and Utah State are all 3-2. FPI (from a run that appears to predate the Texas State–Oregon State result): Boise State 74.8, Oregon State 18.5, Texas State 4.0.

Conference Overviews

FPI’s top 25 has 10 SEC teams, six from the Big Ten, five from the Big 12, three from the ACC and Notre Dame. SP+ sees it differently this week: seven Big Ten teams, six Big 12, five SEC, four ACC, Notre Dame, and one each from CUSA (Liberty) and the Mountain West (New Mexico). Last week SP+ had eight SEC teams in its top 25. Ole Miss (down 17 spots to 30th), Missouri (down 12 to 29th), South Carolina (down 4 to 28th) and Kentucky (down 7 to 41st) account for the drop.

SEC. Georgia is back on top. Behind it, ESPN describes what amounts to an NFL-style race. Alabama, Kentucky, Texas and Tennessee all have two conference losses, and Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU, Missouri and Oklahoma have three. ESPN thinks the title game could be a two-loss team against a three-loss team. The week’s results raised questions about Kentucky and Ole Miss, whose records look better than their play. Florida is 3-4 in the league and Texas A&M 1-5.

Big Ten. UCLA (6-0) leads Indiana (5-1), and the six teams behind them all have two league losses. Ohio State is one of them, and Oregon is another, with wins over USC and Ohio State. ESPN points out that UCLA and Indiana never met in the Rose Bowl in the Big Ten–Pac-12 era; this year they may meet in Indianapolis. Nebraska started 5-0, has lost four straight, and has fired its offensive coordinator.

Big 12. Utah is 6-0 and has the nation’s longest winning streak, 14 games. Texas Tech is 5-1. Five teams are 4-2, and Arizona hosts Utah on Saturday. The league’s best chance at a second playoff team is now Texas Tech or Utah as runner-up, not BYU.

ACC. Miami (6-0) and Wake Forest (5-1) lead. Louisville and SMU are 5-2, and Duke and Clemson are 4-2. SMU hosting Wake Forest on Saturday is the league’s biggest game left before December. Florida State fired Norvell and then won at Boston College. Duke won by 38 at NC State, CBS reports.

Pac-12. Boise State is 5-0 and has won eight straight. Texas State, Oregon State, San Diego State and Utah State are 3-2. CBS notes that the league’s first flex week at the end of November will set Boise’s Week 13 opponent later. The Pac-12 has the best Group of Six numbers in FPI (average −2.4, median −1.8, one team below 100th) and in SP+ (average −1.3, median −0.45, three teams below 100th).

American. North Texas is 5-0 and has won six straight, with Memphis and UTSA at 4-1. UTSA’s loss to FAU makes North Texas–UTSA, still to come, the game that decides the race. Tulane, last year’s champion, lost 60-10 to Tulsa and is 4-5. FPI average −6.2 (median −4.0, 5 of 14 teams below 100th); SP+ average −4.4 (median −2.45, 5 below 100th).

Mountain West. New Mexico is 5-0, with Wyoming at 5-1 and North Dakota State at 4-2. New Mexico (23rd) and North Dakota State (34th) give the league two teams in SP+’s top 35. FPI average −8.7 (median −9.65, 5 of 10 below 100th); SP+ average −6.3 (median −5.7, 4 below 100th). Northern Illinois is 0-9.

Sun Belt. Louisiana Tech leads the West at 5-0. In the East, Georgia Southern (4-1) leads James Madison (5-2) on percentage. James Madison is 26th in SP+, the highest in the league, and won 54-23 on Thursday. FPI average −9.3 (median −10.25, 9 of 14 below 100th); SP+ average −7.0 (median −7.6, 6 below 100th).

MAC. Ohio is 5-0 and the league’s only unbeaten team in conference play. Buffalo, Toledo and Western Michigan are 4-1. FPI average −15.2 (median −15.3, 10 of 13 below 100th); SP+ average −12.6 (median −13.2, 9 below 100th). CUSA, for the record: Liberty and Jacksonville State are both 5-0. FPI average −11.7 (median −13.85); SP+ average −8.8 (median −11.85).

The Week 11 Board

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings. Percentages are ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor: each is the favorite’s chance of winning. Rankings are CBS’s projection of this afternoon’s AP poll, not the poll itself. All games are Saturday, November 14th. Kickoff times and networks were not set when we wrote this; the SEC, for one, announces its times on Monday. FPI and SP+ conversions are our own arithmetic: the rating difference plus about 2.5 points for the home team.

Where the models and the market split. Missouri at Georgia is the biggest gap. SP+ makes Georgia about a 20-point favorite and FPI about 17, against a line of 13.5. Texas at LSU is the other: both models have LSU by about one or two points, against 4.5. In Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, both models call it close to even and the line has Oklahoma State by 2.5.

Predictions

Kentucky 26, Florida 23. FPI’s ratings make it Kentucky by about 1.5 points and SP+’s by about 5, and the line is 2.5, so the models split on the spread. ESPN gives Kentucky a 53.8 percent chance of winning. Kentucky’s last two big games were 28-point losses, but it is at home in a sold-out stadium, and Florida is coming off a 23-7 loss in which it ran into a team holding the ball for 38 minutes. Florida’s defense ranks 53rd in SP+. Kentucky wins and covers. Under 53.5. What it means: a Kentucky loss would be its third and would end its playoff case. A win keeps it on CBS’s 10-2 path.

Wake Forest 31, SMU 27. FPI makes it Wake Forest by about 3.5 points, SP+ by about 1.5, against a 2.5-point line. ESPN gives Wake Forest a 59.4 percent chance of winning. Both models favor Wake, but they split on the spread, so this cover is not a strong call. If Lopez plays, Wake’s offense (13th in SP+) should do enough against an SMU defense ranked 35th. Wake Forest wins and covers. Under 61.5. What it means: a Wake Forest win keeps it one loss behind Miami in the ACC and in our playoff conversation. An SMU win puts the Mustangs in our top 20 and makes the November 21st game at Notre Dame matter for both.

Texas Tech 38, Oklahoma State 36. FPI makes it Oklahoma State by less than a point; SP+ calls it even. The line is Oklahoma State by 2.5, and ESPN gives the Cowboys a 51 percent chance of winning. This is the one pick where we go against the market and FPI, though both lean only slightly, and SP+ is with us. Oklahoma State’s offense is third in SP+ and Drew Mestemaker is coming off a game with six total touchdowns at Kansas State. But its defense is 66th, and Texas Tech’s offense is eighth. Texas Tech wins, so it covers as the underdog. Over 70.5. What it means: a Texas Tech win keeps it on course for the Big 12 title game against Utah. A loss would be its second, and CBS’s projection has it out of the bracket already.

Utah 27, Arizona 21. Both models make it Utah by about 3.5 points, against a 2.5-point line. ESPN gives Utah a 60.4 percent chance of winning. Utah has outscored opponents 103-9 in the first quarter, and Arizona needed a late onside kick to beat 4-5 TCU at home. ESPN calls this probably Utah’s last game against a ranked opponent. Arizona has won seven straight at home. Utah wins and covers. Under 53.5. What it means: a Utah win makes it 10-0, and ESPN says a 12-0 Utah would almost certainly be in the top 12 even with a title-game loss. An Arizona win would be the Wildcats’ first over a ranked team this season.

Indiana 26, USC 17. FPI makes it Indiana by about 9 points, SP+ by about 10, against a 7-point line. ESPN gives Indiana a 78.2 percent chance of winning. Indiana’s defense is second in SP+ and USC’s offense 15th. USC’s defense is 39th, so even an Indiana offense that has struggled at quarterback should score enough. Indiana wins and covers. Under 49.5. What it means: an Indiana win gives it its first win over a team in the committee’s top 25 and keeps it a game behind UCLA. A USC win changes our rankings as we promised and puts the Trojans in the playoff conversation.

Georgia 31, Missouri 14. FPI makes it Georgia by about 17 points, SP+ by about 20, against a 13.5-point line. ESPN gives Georgia an 88.8 percent chance of winning. Last week we went against SP+ in this kind of spot and were wrong. Missouri’s run game, with Jamal Roberts, the SEC’s leading rusher, was held to 66 yards by Texas, and Georgia’s defense is first in SP+. Georgia wins and covers. Under 47.5. What it means: a Georgia win keeps it first. A loss would be its second, and No. 1 would be open again.

LSU 24, Texas 21. FPI makes it LSU by about 1 point, SP+ by about 2, against a 4.5-point line. ESPN gives LSU a 52.6 percent chance of winning. Our pick rule says not to go against FPI, SP+ and the market all at once without a strong case, and we don’t have one. Texas’s defense (fourth in SP+) is good enough to keep this close, but the Longhorns have committed 14 turnovers this season. LSU wins, Texas covers. Under 45.5. What it means: a Texas loss would be its third. ESPN’s point applies: at three losses, Texas would need to be 10th or better to be safe. An LSU win puts it back near our top 20 with Tennessee next.

The tally: Six favorites straight up (Kentucky, Wake Forest, Utah, Indiana, Georgia and LSU) and one underdog (Texas Tech). Against the spread, five favorites (Kentucky, Wake Forest, Utah, Indiana and Georgia) and two underdogs (Texas Tech and Texas). Six unders and one over (Texas Tech–Oklahoma State).

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Quick Hits

Our record. We went 5-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread and 5-1 on totals in Week 9 (last week’s picks are here). That puts us at 30-25 straight up, 22-28-2 against the spread and 28-19 on totals for the season. Ohio State was the straight-up miss. The against-the-spread misses were Notre Dame (won by 22, laying 30.5), Arizona and Auburn (Texas Tech and Ole Miss both covered) and Miami (won by three, laying 16.5). In the five games where FPI and SP+ both disagreed with the line, the models went 2-3; Texas Tech’s eight-point win, which covered against our pick, was one of their two.

USC 30, Ohio State 18. USC answered the question we asked last week, and the answer was worse for Ohio State than we expected. Trent Mosley took a screen pass 69 yards for a touchdown on the second snap, against a defense that hadn’t allowed a play longer than 36 yards all season. The Trojans led 20-9 at halftime and 27-9 after freshman tight end Mark Bowman’s 70-yard catch set up a King Miller touchdown. They scored more points than Ohio State’s defense had allowed in its previous 31 games. Luke Fahey, the freshman who got the start over Tavien St. Clair, went 21 of 38 for 260 yards with no interceptions, and his receivers dropped several catchable balls. The Buckeyes gained 464 yards but scored only three field goals on their first five drives, including one after reaching the USC 1 before halftime. They also committed 11 penalties for 75 yards. Jeremiah Smith’s 1-yard touchdown catch with 2:12 left was the 40th of his career, a Big Ten record, and it came too late. Per the AP, Ohio State had not lost two games this early in a season since 2011, and Ryan Day is now 58-2 against unranked teams. We picked Ohio State to win and USC to cover. Half of that held.

We said last week that if Ohio State lost at USC or to Oregon, we would move it, and we have. It drops seven spots, to ninth. The reason is in the Power Rankings below: the loss proved on the field that this is a different team without Sayin.

Miami 38, North Carolina 35. The No. 1 team in the country trailed 28-24 with 11:46 left after Demon June’s 1-yard run. Miami went ahead on Mark Fletcher Jr.’s 2-yard touchdown on fourth down with 7:49 to play. On the next possession, Marquise Lightfoot stripped Billy Edwards Jr. from behind and Justin Scott recovered. Darian Mensah’s 9-yard touchdown to Malachi Toney made it 38-28 with 2:33 left, and Miami still had to recover an onside kick to finish it. Toney caught two touchdowns, and Fletcher tied Miami’s career record for rushing touchdowns. The worry is the defense. Edwards threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns, and North Carolina kept the ball on a 16-play drive that lasted nearly eight and a half minutes. It was the most points Miami has allowed in regulation this season, and Mario Cristobal said afterward that the tackling and coverage weren’t good enough. North Carolina is now 0-12 against No. 1 teams. We said Miami’s place in the field did not depend on this game. It didn’t. The game at Notre Dame on Saturday matters more after this.

Georgia 27, Florida 8. Georgia forced four turnovers and led 24-0 at halftime in Atlanta, where the rivalry moved this year because of renovations in Jacksonville. The swing play came with 29 seconds left in the half: Quintavius Johnson sacked Tramell Jones Jr. and Chris Cole returned the fumble 66 yards for a touchdown. It was Cole’s second long fumble-return touchdown of the season. Aaron Philo started for Florida after missing the Texas game and was benched after two interceptions. Jones then threw an interception in the end zone from the Georgia 3. Georgia outrushed Florida 217-48 and held Jadan Baugh, who started the day leading the SEC in rushing touchdowns, to 38 yards on 17 carries. It was Georgia’s sixth straight win in the series. The caution is Gunner Stockton: 13 of 23 for 101 yards against a Florida pass defense that entered the game 121st nationally in passing yards allowed, per CBS. CBS’s Georgia column makes the case that the passing game is the problem to watch. Kirby Smart conceded afterward that Georgia missed throws and left points on the field. Last week we wrote that a loss would leave Florida at 5-3 with its best case already made. That is where Florida is.

Utah 49, Cincinnati 25. One week after Cincinnati beat Texas Tech, Utah led the Bearcats 42-6 at halftime. Utah kept the ball for more than 10 minutes of the first quarter, Rabbit Evans returned a fumble 51 yards for a touchdown, and Elijah Davis returned an interception 39 yards for another with 34 seconds left in the half. Devon Dampier threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns. His 45 rushing yards made him Utah’s career leader in rushing yards by a quarterback. The Utes are 8-0 for the first time since 2010, and their 14-game winning streak is the longest active streak in the FBS. This was the kind of result Utah needed before BYU comes to Salt Lake City.

Indiana 23, Minnesota 16, in overtime. For the second straight week, Indiana needed overtime against an unranked team. Josh Hoover, who started with an injured right shoulder, was pulled at halftime after his second interception of the season, with Minnesota up 10-7. Grant Wilson went 9 of 17 for 156 yards. Minnesota’s Luke Drzewiecki made a 60-yard field goal for a 16-13 lead with 19 seconds left. Charlie Becker then caught a 33-yard pass and Paddy McAteer made a 60-yarder of his own as time expired. Wilson hit Becker for a 25-yard touchdown on the first play of overtime, and the defense sacked Drake Lindsey on fourth down to end it. Becker finished with eight catches for 149 yards. The special teams were nearly as bad as the offense: two short punts set up both Minnesota scores in the first half, a field goal was blocked, another was missed and a third attempt never happened because of a bad snap. Last week we wrote that the problem is the offense. It still is, and now the quarterback is a question too.

Texas Tech 34, Arizona 26. Joey McGuire benched Will Hammond after the loss at Cincinnati and started Tommy Castellanos, and Texas Tech got its first opening-drive touchdown since the opener. Castellanos completed only 11 of 24 passes for 144 yards but threw two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards and a score. His 27-yard touchdown pass on fourth-and-2 late in the third quarter put the Red Raiders ahead for good. J’Koby Williams ran for 175 yards, including a 64-yard touchdown. Noah Fifita threw for 417 yards for Arizona, 182 of them to Isaiah Mizell, but the Wildcats ran for 12 yards and gave up five sacks. Texas Tech tied a school record with its 13th straight home win. The start came a day after a court ruling preserved the eligibility of Castellanos and 29 other athletes suing over the NCAA’s five-year eligibility model. We picked Arizona to cover and it didn’t. Last week we wrote that the loser would have two league losses and that, for Texas Tech, it would end the title-game path. Arizona is the team with two now.

Notre Dame 35, Navy 13. Navy led 13-7 with 1:52 left in the first half after Jackson Gutierrez’s 2-yard run. Notre Dame went ahead 50 seconds later on Nolan James Jr.’s 52-yard run and scored on each of its first three possessions of the second half. Navy, which had the ball for all but 6:27 of the first half, gained 56 yards after halftime. CJ Carr threw for 210 yards and two touchdowns, James ran for 107 and two scores, and Marcus Freeman won his 50th game at Notre Dame. It was the Irish’s ninth straight win over Navy. Notre Dame won by 22, laying 30.5, so we got the winner and the under but not the cover.

Ole Miss 45, Auburn 15. Ole Miss led only 17-15 late in the third quarter. Trinidad Chambliss ran 26 yards for a touchdown, threw two more touchdowns in the fourth, and the Rebels scored the last 28 points. Chambliss threw for 263 yards and ran for 65. Ole Miss converted 13 of 16 third downs and held Auburn to 63 rushing yards. With Kewan Lacy out (separated shoulder), sophomore Shekai Mills-Knight, who had 42 yards in the first seven games, ran 16 times for 71 yards and a touchdown. Coach Pete Golding credited the early running game for setting up everything else. We picked Auburn to cover 11.5. It lost by 30. CBS’s projection lists the score as 45-17; the AP recap and ESPN’s committee column both have a 30-point margin, so we use 45-15.

BYU 27, Arizona State 20. BYU led 17-3 at halftime, saw Arizona State tie it in the third quarter and pulled away late. Matthias Dunn’s 45-yard field goal put BYU ahead for good. Bear Bachmeier converted a fourth-and-1 run from his own 14, hit a 53-yard pass on the next play and set up Sione Moa’s 1-yard touchdown with 2:09 left. BYU had six sacks. There is an asterisk on the first score: the Big 12 said after the game that replay should not have awarded BYU a touchdown when Moa scooped up Bachmeier’s fumble near the goal line, and that BYU should have had third-and-goal from the 2. Arizona State’s Jake Fette was making his first career start.

Boise State 46, Texas State 45. Boise State led by 25 at halftime and then gave up the first 36 points of the second half. Jayden Bradley’s pick-six off Maddux Madsen, Madsen’s first interception of the season, put Texas State ahead 39-28 with 8:58 left. Madsen then took a hard hit near his left knee and left the game. Max Cutforth came in and threw three touchdown passes in the final seven minutes, the last an 18-yarder to Akeem Wright with 2:40 left. Mana Tuioti’s interception on a trick play set up one of them. Madsen watched the end on crutches, and Spencer Danielson said his status is unknown. Danielson also called the third quarter one of the worst he has been part of. Boise was No. 20 in last week’s AP poll, tied with Northwestern; that is the ranking the AP recap used. Boise is 7-1 and 4-0 in the Pac-12. The Madsen news matters more for the Group of Six race than the score does.

The week-after problem kept going. ESPN pointed out earlier this season how often teams lose the week after their biggest win. Three more did it this week. Wisconsin beat USC 17-7 a week ago and lost 30-0 at Iowa, where Hank Brown completed 20 of 24 passes. Cincinnati beat Texas Tech and lost at home to Utah by 24. Florida beat Texas in its last game and lost to Georgia by 19. USC has a bye before it goes to Indiana on November 14th.

Elsewhere. Syracuse beat SMU 30-27 on a 2-yard touchdown pass from Steve Angeli to Noah Meyers with 17 seconds left, which hurts SMU’s hopes of reaching the ACC title game. Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 51-49 on Kyle Konrardy’s 34-yard field goal as time expired, set up in part by an unsportsmanlike-conduct penalty on Oklahoma State’s go-ahead touchdown. Oregon came back from 10-0 down to beat Northwestern 34-26 behind Dylan Raiola, who threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns. Oregon has ruled Dante Moore out for the season and fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer on October 25th. South Carolina won 42-25 at Oklahoma, its third straight win. Washington beat Nebraska with two touchdowns in the last 90 seconds, the second a 48-yard interception return; Nebraska has lost three straight by a combined 13 points. Missouri won 34-10 at Arkansas, and Ahmad Hardy, who was shot in the leg at a concert in May, played for the first time this season. Wake Forest beat Virginia 51-7, though quarterback Gio Lopez limped off with a leg injury. UCLA intercepted four passes and beat Nevada 27-0, its first shutout at the Rose Bowl since 2007. Texas beat Mississippi State 31-3, with defensive tackle Maraad Watson returning a fumble 61 yards for a score. Mississippi State’s starter, AJ Swann, was hurt on that play, which leaves the offense to walk-on Parker Puckett. Thursday night, Troy beat James Madison 24-21 in overtime after the Dukes led 21-7 at halftime and then turned it over five times. Baylor, under interim coach Joe Klanderman, beat UCF 41-9. And Sacramento State beat Kent State 31-10 for its first FBS win.

Power Rankings

Records are through October 31st. Florida dropped out.

Georgia (2nd, up 1). Georgia moves up because Ohio State fell, and it earned the spot. Its two best wins are away from home, at Alabama and against Florida in Atlanta. Saturday was the defense’s game: four takeaways, a touchdown and 48 rushing yards allowed. The passing game is the open question going into Oxford.

BYU (3rd, up 1). BYU moves up one because Ohio State fell. Arizona State made it uncomfortable, and the Big 12 says one of BYU’s touchdowns shouldn’t have counted. BYU still won by seven with six sacks and a fourth-down conversion from its own 14. It stays ahead of Notre Dame on head-to-head and ahead of Utah on the promise we made, which runs out Saturday.

Notre Dame (4th, up 1). Notre Dame moves up one because Ohio State fell. The first half against Navy was sloppy and the second half was not. The Irish held Navy to 56 yards after halftime.

Utah (5th, up 2). Utah passes Indiana. Utah went to a Cincinnati team that had just beaten Texas Tech by 13 and led by 36 at halftime. In the same two weeks, Indiana needed overtime twice against unranked teams and pulled its quarterback at halftime on Saturday. Utah’s schedule is still the weakest of the contenders, and we said so last week, but it is 8-0 and has won its last two big games, Houston and Cincinnati, in very different ways. It stays behind BYU for one more week because we said it would.

UCLA (7th, up 1). UCLA moves up one because Ohio State fell. Four interceptions and a shutout of a 3-5 team don’t change much, but the Bruins are 8-0 and now the only unbeaten team in the Big Ten standings.

Texas (8th, up 1). Texas moves up one and passes Ohio State, which it beat 24-23 in Austin in Week 2. We wrote last week that if Ohio State lost at USC, Texas would move ahead. It has. The 31-3 win over Mississippi State was more about the defense than the offense, which was sacked six times and finished under 300 yards. Cam Coleman left early for the second straight game and was in street clothes in the second half.

Ohio State (9th, down 7). Ohio State drops because it lost, and because the loss showed on the field what losing Sayin means. The defense, first in SP+ a week ago, gave up a 69-yard touchdown on the second snap and 30 points. The offense moved the ball and could not finish. It falls behind Texas, which beat it. It stays ahead of USC, Texas Tech and the rest of this group because of the whole body of work: wins over Indiana and at Iowa, and two losses on the road, both to teams ranked in our top 20. Seven spots is inside our 11-spot ceiling. If the Buckeyes lose to Oregon on Saturday, they drop again.

Wake Forest (16th, up 1). Wake Forest beat Virginia 51-7 for its fifth straight win and has given up four touchdowns in four games. Houston was off. Wake also gained from SMU’s loss at Syracuse, which leaves the Demon Deacons as the clear second team in the ACC.

USC (17th, new). USC enters because it beat the No. 2 team in the country by 12 on Saturday night. The Trojans are 7-2. They lost at home to Oregon earlier in the season and 17-7 at Wisconsin a week ago, so this is not a team without flaws. But beating Ohio State is a win few teams in this part of the ranking can match, and a week after scoring seven points, the offense put up 30 on the Ohio State defense.

Houston (18th, down 2). Houston was off. It drops two because Wake Forest won big and passes it, and because USC’s win over Ohio State is better than any win Houston has. Houston hosts Cincinnati on Saturday.

Boise State (20th, down 2). Boise State won, but it gave up 36 straight points at home to a 4-4 team and needed its backup quarterback to come back. Madsen’s injury is the bigger issue: if he misses time, this is a different team. Missouri, which won 34-10 at Arkansas, passes it.

Why Ohio State is ahead of USC. USC won 30-18 in Los Angeles, and it was not close; the Trojans led 27-9 in the third quarter. Under the rule we have used all season, a result like that does not get overridden. We are making an exception here and saying why. Ohio State played its first full game without Sayin, with a freshman making his first career start on the road. The loss tells us that this version of Ohio State is a lesser team, and we have dropped the Buckeyes seven spots for it. It does not tell us that USC has been the better team across nine games. Ohio State’s two losses are by one at Texas and by 12 at USC. USC’s two losses are at home to Oregon and by 10 at Wisconsin, a team that just lost 30-0. The fairer reading of Saturday is that a short-handed Ohio State lost on the road to a solid, capable team, and that USC is good enough to beat this Ohio State. That is a good result for USC, and it is why USC is ranked. It is not enough to put USC ahead of a team with Ohio State’s full record. If USC wins at Indiana on November 14th, this paragraph changes.

Why Indiana is ahead of Ohio State. Ohio State beat Indiana 19-15 in Bloomington on October 17th. That is a four-point loss, close enough for our rule to allow an override, though it came at home. The reason for the override is Sayin. He played most of that game, and the Ohio State team that beat Indiana is not the one that played at USC. Fahey did not look ready on Saturday, though it was his first start, on the road, and we will see how much he improves. Indiana is 8-1 and Ohio State is 6-2. That is not a claim that Indiana is dominant. Its 23 points against Minnesota were the most it has scored in four weeks, and every one of those games was close. Indiana wins them with good coaching and an experienced team, and it looks like a playoff team, but not one that is beating people up. Ohio State still holds the Big Ten tiebreaker if they finish level, which is a separate question from who is better right now.

Why USC is ahead of Oregon and Wisconsin. Oregon beat USC 41-27 at the Coliseum on September 26th, and Wisconsin beat USC 17-7 in Madison on October 24th. Neither was close. We still have USC ahead of both. USC is 7-2 and 4-2 in the Big Ten, with a win over Ohio State. Oregon is 5-3 and 3-2, with losses to UCLA, Oklahoma State and Illinois since it beat USC. If Oregon wins out, starting at Ohio State on Saturday, the head-to-head result will carry more weight and we will look at it again. Wisconsin is 5-3, and its 30-0 loss at Iowa on Saturday settles that one for now.

Why Texas and Ole Miss are ahead of Florida. Florida beat Texas 27-24 in Austin and Ole Miss 52-28 in Gainesville. We already overrode the Texas result (close) and broke the Ole Miss result as part of the Florida–Missouri–Ole Miss cycle. Florida is now 5-3, has lost three of its last four and is out of our top 20.

Carried over. These standing calls are unchanged. BYU is ahead of UCF, which beat it in double overtime in Orlando. Georgia is ahead of Auburn, which beat it 27-24 in Athens in the final seconds. Texas Tech is ahead of Cincinnati, which beat it 37-24 in Cincinnati. Tennessee is ahead of South Carolina, which beat it 27-24 in Columbia on October 24th; a three-point road loss is the kind our rule allows us to override. That was the middle game of South Carolina’s three-game winning streak, and the Gamecocks are close to our top 20. Boise State is ahead of Oregon, which beat it by seven in Eugene.

Why the rest held. Miami stays first. A three-point win at North Carolina was not the performance of a week ago, but Miami is the only unbeaten team in the top four and has the best résumé. Indiana holds at sixth. It won again and drops only because Utah passed it, which offsets Ohio State’s fall. Texas Tech holds at tenth after a good win over Arizona, still behind Ohio State’s body of work and ahead of three SEC teams that were off. Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky all had byes, and the margin chain that holds them in that order (Tennessee beat Alabama 26-10 in Knoxville; Alabama won 45-17 in Lexington) gets tested Saturday when Kentucky goes to Tennessee. Ole Miss won by 30 and holds at 14th behind 7-1 Kentucky. LSU was off and stays behind Ole Miss and Kentucky, which beat it. Missouri won and holds at 19th. It moves ahead of Boise State without moving itself.

Who’s next. The first team out is Iowa (6-2). It beat Wisconsin 30-0, its third shutout of the season, and its losses are to Ohio State and by three at Minnesota. Then come Florida, South Carolina (three straight wins, over Florida, Tennessee and Oklahoma), Northwestern, Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon and SMU.

The outside check

Last week we said that this week we would set our ranking next to the committee’s. We can’t yet. The committee’s first ranking comes out Tuesday night at 7 p.m. Eastern, after this piece runs. We will make that comparison in the Week 11 piece on November 8th. For now, the best stand-in is ESPN’s projection of what the committee will do. ESPN’s top seven are Miami, Georgia, BYU, Notre Dame, Utah, Indiana and UCLA, the same seven teams as ours in the same order. Then the lists split. ESPN has Kentucky eighth, Texas ninth, Ohio State 10th, Ole Miss 11th and LSU 12th. We have Texas eighth and Ohio State ninth, then Texas Tech, Tennessee and Alabama, with Kentucky 13th, Ole Miss 14th and LSU 15th. ESPN leaves Texas Tech, Tennessee and Alabama out of its 12. The Kentucky gap is still our biggest disagreement with the outside view, and Saturday’s game in Knoxville is the best chance to settle it on the field.

CBS’s projection of Sunday’s AP poll has Miami and Georgia first and second, as we do, then Notre Dame, Utah, UCLA, Indiana and BYU. It has Ohio State 11th, behind Kentucky, Alabama and Texas, and USC 17th, as we do. We have used CBS’s projection on the board for three weeks, and it was worth checking how close it came. The real post-Week 8 AP poll had Georgia third and Notre Dame fifth, where the projection we printed had them fourth and third. Indiana was fourth, not sixth, and BYU was eighth, not fifth. Utah was sixth, Ole Miss 12th and Houston 18th, and Boise State and Northwestern tied for 20th. The order at the very top was right; the rest moved by a few spots. The labels on this week’s board are CBS’s projection again, because the real poll comes out Sunday afternoon.

SP+, updated Sunday, has Georgia first, then Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU, Miami, Indiana, Texas, Alabama, Utah, Texas Tech, Tennessee and Oregon. Our biggest gaps with it are the same as last week: LSU is fourth in SP+ and 15th here, and Kentucky is 34th in SP+ and 13th here. SP+ also has BYU 14th and UCLA 15th, well below where we and ESPN’s projection have them. SP+ is a predictive rating, not a résumé ranking, so it doesn’t credit wins the way the committee does. Its résumé SP+ is closer to us: Miami, Utah, Notre Dame, UCLA, Georgia and Indiana are first through sixth, six of our top seven. The exception is BYU, 14th.

Best vs. Most Deserving

Our Power Rankings reward what teams have done: head-to-head results, the margin chain among Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky, the promise to hold BYU ahead of Utah until they play, and limits on how far a team can move in a week. A different question is who the 10 best teams are right now, the ones we would expect to win on a neutral field next Saturday. That list leans on how teams are playing, and on FPI and SP+, which are built to predict. Our answer differs from our top 10 in four places.

FPI and SP+ ranks are from the November 1st runs.

BYU and UCLA drop out. They are third and seventh in our Power Rankings, and both earned those spots: BYU beat Notre Dame, and UCLA hasn’t lost. Neither model sees either as elite. FPI has BYU 16th and UCLA 28th; SP+ has them 14th and 15th. BYU lost at UCF, and against Arizona State it got a touchdown the Big 12 says shouldn’t have counted. UCLA’s opponents have a combined winning percentage that ranks 114th, according to ESPN Analytics. Those are good teams with strong résumés, not two of the 10 best teams in the country.

LSU and Alabama come in. We rank them 15th and 12th because each lost to a team we rank above it: LSU to Ole Miss and Kentucky, Alabama to Georgia and Tennessee. Both models put them in the top eight. On a neutral field, we would expect either one to be favored against most of our top 10. One of them will have three losses by Saturday night, because they play each other.

Notre Dame moves ahead of Miami. Miami is first in our rankings because it is unbeaten with the best résumé in the country, first in résumé SP+. As a team right now, Notre Dame looks a little better: first in FPI, top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency by ESPN Analytics. Miami’s defense just gave up 35 points to North Carolina. Saturday in South Bend answers this directly.

Georgia is first. SP+ moved Georgia to No. 1 this week, with the second-best defense in the country. The passing game is a real question, and it is the reason we picked Ole Miss to cover. But Georgia is the only team in the top five of SP+ on both offense and defense.

Ohio State stays in, but lower than the models. FPI and SP+ both have Ohio State second. Both ratings were built mostly on games Sayin played. The defense is still among the best in the country, which is why the Buckeyes are in. We would not put them above Texas, which beat them, or above Indiana, for the reasons in our Power Rankings. That is our judgment, not the models’.

Utah drops to ninth. Utah is fifth in our rankings because it is 8-0 and has handled its two biggest games. Both models have it about ninth or 10th. Its schedule ranks 93rd in SP+, the softest of any team on this list.

The 10th spot is close. Texas Tech gets it over Tennessee and Ole Miss. SP+ has Texas Tech 10th, Tennessee 11th and Ole Miss 13th. FPI goes the other way, with Ole Miss ninth, ahead of Texas Tech (13th) and Tennessee (14th). It is close enough that we would not argue hard against either Tennessee or Ole Miss.

Kentucky is in neither list. Kentucky is 13th in our rankings because it is 7-1 and its only loss is to Alabama. It is 26th in FPI and 34th in SP+, and its own efficiency numbers back the models up. That is why Saturday at Tennessee matters so much for our rankings: it is the clearest test of whether the record or the play is the truer picture.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team field, and Change is against our preseason numbers. The 19 teams add up to 9.81. With the Group of Six line (1.06) and the field (1.13), that is 12.00. Boise State’s chance is still inside the Group of Six line so the line can be compared with August.

Ohio State drops 20, from 76 to 56. That is the biggest cut this week and inside our 24-point ceiling. Ohio State is 6-2 with Oregon, two more Big Ten games and Michigan left, and it now has to win most of them with a freshman quarterback. FPI still gives it 74.2 percent, but FPI’s rating was built mostly on Sayin’s games. A third loss would probably end it.

Utah rises 8, to 72. It is 8-0, won its two biggest games of the season back to back, and FPI now puts its playoff chance at 78.1 percent.

Texas, UCLA, Texas Tech and Wake Forest rise 6 each. Texas, to 66, won and now owns the head-to-head that matters most for a two-loss at-large spot; ESPN’s committee projection ranks it highest of the two-loss teams. UCLA, to 58, is the only unbeaten team in the Big Ten and gained when Ohio State lost. Texas Tech, to 50, beat Arizona and is tied for second in the Big 12 at 4-1. Wake Forest, to 32, won by 44, and SMU’s loss makes Wake the clear favorite to face Miami in the ACC title game.

Georgia and Indiana rise 4 each; Ole Miss rises 4. Georgia, to 88, won its rivalry game by 19 and is tied for the SEC lead. Indiana, to 78, did not play well, but Ohio State’s loss opens up its Big Ten path; FPI’s playoff number for the Hoosiers is 84.6 percent. Ole Miss, to 40, won by 30 without its best running back.

Notre Dame and BYU rise 2 each; Miami rises 1; Missouri rises 2. Notre Dame (78) and BYU (58) won games they were expected to win. Miami (95) won but showed a defensive problem. Missouri (8) won on the road and now hosts Texas.

Off-week teams held. Alabama (58), Kentucky (48), LSU (40), Tennessee (28) and Houston (14) did not play and did not move.

In and out. USC enters at 14. That is down 19 from its preseason 33 but up from the field, where it sat last week. Florida drops out of the table, from 14 into the field: the loss to Georgia was its third, and we said a loss would leave it with its best case already made. The field line falls from 1.40 to 1.13. Arizona, Northwestern, SMU, Oklahoma State and Wisconsin, all in the field, lost, and that is where most of this week’s gains came from. The Group of Six line falls slightly, from 1.10 to 1.06; the reason is in the next section.

What the Committee Will Have to Argue About

The 13-member selection committee starts meeting Monday and releases its first ranking Tuesday at 7 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, the first of six. Its protocol tells it to pick the best teams and seed them, and it allows the committee to consider things like the unavailability of key players. That last part may matter more this year than usual. Here are the arguments we expect in the room this week, and the ones coming later. Most of the facts below come from ESPN’s committee projection.

This week

• How far Ohio State falls. The Buckeyes lost by one at Texas with Sayin and by 12 at USC without him. The committee has to decide whether it is ranking the team that went 6-1 or the one that played Saturday. ESPN projects Ohio State 10th, right behind Texas, on the head-to-head. We have it ninth, also behind Texas.
• Whether USC’s win counts for more than USC’s losses. USC beat Ohio State convincingly, but it also lost to Oregon and Wisconsin, and neither may be in the committee’s top 25. If the committee honors the head-to-head, USC becomes one of its top two-loss teams. If not, USC lands behind Ohio State, as it does in ours.
• BYU or Notre Dame. BYU beat Notre Dame 28-24 and both are 7-1. But BYU’s loss at UCF is worse than Notre Dame’s loss at BYU, and ESPN Analytics has Notre Dame in the top three in offensive and defensive efficiency, with BYU outside the top 12 in both. The committee doesn’t have to honor a head-to-head result if it decides the teams aren’t comparable. We think it will this week, as we do.
• What to do with unbeaten teams that haven’t played anyone. UCLA is 8-0 and second in ESPN’s strength of record, but its opponents’ combined winning percentage ranks 114th, and it is outside the top 30 in offensive efficiency. Utah is 8-0 with one ranked opponent, though it is one of the more explosive teams in the country. Being unbeaten has never guaranteed a high spot in this committee’s rankings.
• Kentucky’s résumé against Kentucky’s play. Kentucky entered its bye leading the country in strength of record with the eighth-hardest schedule. It also ranks outside the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency and has won by an average of 8.1 points. ESPN projects it eighth. We have it 13th. Where the committee puts Kentucky will tell us which of those two things it values more.
• Georgia’s home loss and soft early schedule. Georgia has wins at Alabama and over Florida, but it lost at home to Auburn, and its schedule was the weakest in the SEC going into Saturday. The question is whether it is the committee’s top one-loss team or just one of several.
• Miami’s schedule. Miami is the clearest No. 1 on the board, but its schedule ranked 60th going into Saturday, and the win at North Carolina won’t help much. Some members could see Georgia as the better team.
• Indiana’s quality loss. Indiana has no wins over teams currently ranked, and its offense has struggled for a month. Its best argument is that the four-point home loss to Ohio State came with Sayin playing. That argument depends on the committee also believing Ohio State is weaker now, which cuts both ways.
• Sorting the two-loss SEC teams. Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, Alabama and Tennessee are all 6-2, and the results among them form a web: Texas beat Ole Miss and Tennessee, Ole Miss beat LSU, Tennessee beat Alabama. Florida beat Texas and Ole Miss, and Florida is now 5-3. ESPN projects Texas, Ole Miss and LSU into its 12 and leaves Alabama and Tennessee out.
• The Group of Six spot. Boise State is the frontrunner, but Madsen’s knee injury came three days before the first ranking. The committee will rank the team it has watched, and how much it discounts Boise for the injury is something we won’t know until later rankings.

Coming later

• Miami at Notre Dame. If Notre Dame loses, it has two losses, no conference title to fall back on and SMU still to play. If Miami loses, ESPN notes it can still get in as the ACC champion. If Wake Forest then beats Miami in the ACC title game, the league could get two teams, with Miami holding a win over the eventual champion.
• Two Big 12 teams. BYU and Utah meet Saturday and could meet again in the Big 12 title game. If the results split, the runner-up would have a two-loss case that includes a win over the league champion.
• Ohio State going forward. Every week Fahey plays, the committee gets more evidence about the Buckeyes without Sayin. Oregon this week and Michigan to close are the tests. A third loss would probably make the injury argument moot.
• A possible SEC cycle. If Kentucky beats Tennessee, then Kentucky beat Tennessee, Tennessee beat Alabama and Alabama beat Kentucky. No order respects all three results, and the committee would have to pick one to break, as we did with Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri.
• Texas or LSU. They meet in Baton Rouge on November 14th. If both still have two losses, ESPN expects that game to decide which one gets an at-large bid. LSU has the toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
• Who wins the Big Ten. UCLA is alone in first and doesn’t play Ohio State or Indiana. If the Bruins reach the title game unbeaten and lose, the committee will have to decide what a 12-1 team with that schedule is worth against two-loss teams with better wins.
• Margin of victory. The committee caps margin at 24 points, so blowouts like Utah’s 49-25 and Wake Forest’s 51-7 count for less than they look. Close wins, like Indiana’s two in overtime, count as wins, but they don’t help a team’s case.

The Group of Six Race

Boise State is still the clear favorite for the Group of Six spot, but for the first time this season the question is about its quarterback rather than its schedule. Two of the teams chasing it, James Madison and Oregon State, lost this week, and New Mexico and UTSA are the only ones left with a real chance of passing Boise if it stumbles.

FPI ranks and playoff percentages (each team’s chance of making the 12-team field) are from ESPN’s FPI, updated November 1st. SP+ and résumé SP+ ranks are from ESPN’s SP+ as of Sunday, November 1st. Records against ranked teams use the AP poll. North Texas replaces North Dakota State (7-2, 0.0 percent).

Who is best. FPI still says Boise State, by a wide margin: its rating is about 5 points better than New Mexico’s, about 6 better than Liberty’s and about 7.5 better than James Madison’s. SP+ sees it much more tightly. Liberty, up 17 spots, is the top Group of Six team at 28th, then Boise State 31st, New Mexico 32nd and James Madison 33rd, four teams within about a point and a quarter of each other. Résumé SP+ still has Boise first in the group (15th), with Liberty 17th and New Mexico 20th. Liberty’s and New Mexico’s schedules rank 130th and 126th in SP+; Boise’s ranks 61st. Both ratings were set with Madsen at quarterback, and that matters this week.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. Boise State. FPI gives it a 61.9 percent chance of making the field, up from 47.6 a week ago, and a 72.1 percent chance of winning the Pac-12. ESPN’s committee projection puts Boise in its bracket as the 12th seed. What changed is Madsen. Boise was trailing by 11 when he went out, and Cutforth won the game, which is a point in Boise’s favor. But the line we have printed for weeks is that the one thing that could change the race is Oregon State on November 14th. Now it is the knee.

Who else. New Mexico is 7-1, 4-0 in the Mountain West and has won five straight; its only loss is 14-6 at Oklahoma. FPI gives it a 66.1 percent chance of winning the league. UTSA is 7-1 and 4-0 in the American, with its only loss to Texas, but North Texas is also 4-0 in the league, and FPI splits the title almost evenly among three teams (34.8 percent for North Texas, 33.6 for UTSA, 25.1 for Memphis). Liberty is 7-1 and 4-0 in Conference USA, and FPI gives it an 80.3 percent chance to win the league, but its schedule ranks 130th in SP+. James Madison lost at home to Troy on Thursday after turning it over five times; it has two losses and FPI’s playoff chance is now 0.0. It is no longer the East leader in the Sun Belt by percentage; Georgia Southern is 3-1 to the Dukes’ 4-2, although FPI still makes James Madison the favorite in the division (61.8 percent). Oregon State lost at Fresno State and has three losses.

Our split. We trim the Group of Six line from 1.10 to 1.06. The line is mostly the one guaranteed spot plus a small chance of a second team as an at-large. That small chance fell when James Madison and Oregon State lost. Of the 1.06, Boise State gets about 0.58 (up from 0.55, since two challengers lost, held down by Madsen’s injury), New Mexico 0.22 (up from 0.20), UTSA 0.12 (unchanged after a bye), Oregon State 0.03 (down from 0.08), James Madison 0.02 (down from 0.08) and the rest 0.09 (up from 0.07, with Liberty, North Texas and Louisiana Tech all winning).

This week. Boise State goes to Colorado State, and the first thing to watch is who plays quarterback. New Mexico plays at Nevada on Friday night. James Madison goes to Southern Miss on Thursday. Texas State, the team that nearly beat Boise, goes to Oregon State.

Conference Projections

These are our chances of each team winning its conference. Changes from last week are in bold.

ACC. Miami 75, Wake Forest 16 (up 5), SMU 3 (down 4), Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 1, Duke 1. SMU’s loss at Syracuse drops it to 4-2 in the league and two games behind Miami. Wake Forest is 5-1 and has the clearer path to the title game; it still goes to SMU, but SMU now needs help. The field point comes off with SMU’s chances. Miami won but holds, because North Carolina scored 35 on its defense. FPI: Miami 75.4, Wake Forest 20.7, Louisville 1.9, SMU 1.8.

SEC. Georgia 43 (up 3), Kentucky 15, Alabama 12, Ole Miss 9 (up 1), LSU 7, Texas 6, Tennessee 5, Missouri 2, field 1 (down 2). Florida drops from 2 to 0 (down 2) with its third conference loss. Georgia is tied with Kentucky at 5-1 and holds the tiebreaker over Alabama, which it beat in Tuscaloosa. Saturday at Ole Miss is the biggest step left. Alabama still holds the tiebreaker over Kentucky. Kentucky’s number is far above FPI’s because it is tied for first; Saturday at Tennessee decides whether that number holds. FPI: Georgia 41.8, Alabama 16.8, Ole Miss 12.2, LSU 11.7, Kentucky 6.8, Texas 6.5.

Big Ten. Ohio State 34 (down 10), Indiana 32 (up 6), UCLA 22 (up 6), USC 3 (up 2), Iowa 2, Oregon 1, Wisconsin 1 (down 2), Northwestern 1 (down 1), Nebraska 0 (down 1), field 4. UCLA is alone in first at 5-0 and does not play Ohio State or Indiana. Indiana is 5-1. Ohio State is 4-1 and still holds the tiebreaker over Indiana. That is why the Buckeyes stay barely ahead, even after Saturday. USC is 4-2 and still goes to Indiana. FPI: Ohio State 42.8, Indiana 38.0, UCLA 11.5, USC 2.6, Oregon 2.6.

Big 12. Utah 44 (up 4), Texas Tech 24 (up 4), BYU 23, Houston 4, Arizona 3 (down 3), Oklahoma State 1 (down 2), Baylor 1, field 0 (down 3). Utah is 5-0. Texas Tech and BYU are 4-1, and Texas Tech plays neither Utah nor BYU, which is why it edges BYU here. Arizona and Oklahoma State each have two league losses. BYU at Utah decides the most likely title-game matchup. FPI: Utah 48.4, Texas Tech 21.6, BYU 17.1, Houston 6.2, Arizona 4.3.

Pac-12. Boise State 70 (up 2), Oregon State 17 (down 3), Fresno State 7 (up 3), Texas State 3 (down 1), San Diego State 1, Utah State 1, Colorado State 1, Washington State 0 (down 1). Boise is 4-0. Oregon State lost at Fresno State and is 3-1. Fresno State is 2-2 but beat the team most likely to face Boise. Boise’s number would be higher without the Madsen injury. FPI: Boise State 72.1, Oregon State 17.1, Fresno State 5.7, Texas State 4.1.

Conference Overviews

We still rank the nine leagues SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, Pac-12, American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, MAC. FPI’s top 25 has 10 SEC teams, seven from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12, three from the ACC and Notre Dame. SP+’s top 25 has eight teams from the SEC, eight from the Big Ten, four each from the Big 12 and ACC, and Notre Dame. Kentucky is 34th in SP+.

SEC. The league’s top four (Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Ole Miss) are a combined 26-6. Georgia and Kentucky lead at 5-1, with Alabama and Ole Miss at 4-2. This week has three games between teams in our top 15: Georgia at Ole Miss, Alabama at LSU and Kentucky at Tennessee, plus Texas at Missouri. FPI puts five SEC teams in its top nine. The bottom is weak: Arkansas and Vanderbilt are a combined 1-9 in league play.

Big Ten. UCLA leads at 5-0, Indiana is 5-1 and Ohio State is 4-1. USC is 4-2 and back in the race on paper. The league’s two best teams by FPI, Ohio State and Indiana, have both looked vulnerable for a month, and its only unbeaten team ranks 28th in FPI. Iowa’s 30-0 win over Wisconsin and Oregon’s win over Northwestern shuffled the middle. Maryland and Michigan State are winless in the league.

Big 12. Utah is 5-0, BYU and Texas Tech are 4-1, and four teams are 3-2. Cincinnati, CBS’s “agent of chaos,” was handled by Utah and goes to Houston next. Baylor’s 41-9 win over UCF, under an interim coach, suggests the middle of this league is still unsettled.

ACC. Miami is 6-0 and Wake Forest 5-1. Louisville and SMU are 4-2. SMU’s loss to Syracuse makes this a two-team league at the top. North Carolina took Miami to the last minute and Syracuse beat SMU, but the league still has only three teams in FPI’s top 25.

Pac-12. Boise State is 4-0 and Oregon State 3-1. The league’s FPI average is still the best of the Group of Six leagues: −2.3, with a median of −2.15. Only two of its eight teams are below 100th in FPI. Only one Pac-12 team, Boise State at 32nd, is now in FPI’s top 50; Oregon State is 53rd.

American. UTSA and North Texas are both 4-0, with Memphis 4-1. The league’s FPI average is −6.1 and its median −4.6, and five of its 14 teams are below 100th. Memphis (54th) is its best team in FPI.

Mountain West. New Mexico is 4-0 and Wyoming 4-1. North Dakota State is 4-2. The FPI average is −9.0, the median −8.85, and five of 10 teams are below 100th. Northern Illinois is 0-8.

Sun Belt. Louisiana Tech leads the West at 4-0. Georgia Southern leads the East at 3-1, ahead of James Madison at 4-2 by percentage. The FPI average is −9.2, the median −9.2, and eight of 14 teams are below 100th.

MAC. Ohio is 4-0 and Western Michigan 4-1. The FPI average is −15.2 and the median −14.7, and 10 of 13 teams are below 100th. FPI rates Toledo (36.0 percent) and Western Michigan (34.7) as the favorites over Ohio (20.1).

SP+ agrees with the order. Its Group of Six averages and medians by league: Pac-12 −2.3 and −2.6, American −4.9 and −3.65, Mountain West −6.8 and −6.2, Sun Belt −7.9 and −8.95, Conference USA −9.8 and −12.1, MAC −13.1 and −14.4. SP+ has three Pac-12 teams below 100th, four from the American, four from the Mountain West, eight from the Sun Belt and nine from the MAC. The Pac-12 (Boise State 31st, Oregon State 49th) and the Mountain West (New Mexico 32nd, North Dakota State 35th) each have two teams in SP+’s top 50.

The Week 10 Board

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings. The percentages are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor; each is the favorite’s chance of winning. Rankings are CBS’s projection of Sunday’s AP poll, since the real poll was not out when this was written. All games are Saturday, November 7th.

The biggest split between the models and the market is Texas at Missouri. ESPN gives Texas a 71.3 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make Texas about a 7.5-point favorite, but the line is 3.5. Georgia at Ole Miss goes the other way: FPI’s ratings make Georgia only about a 1.5-point favorite, against a 3-point line. FPI also has Alabama–LSU closer than the market (about 2.5, against 4.5). Miami–Notre Dame is the game where the market and FPI agree most closely (about 3, against 3.5). SP+’s ratings make Utah about a 5.5-point favorite, Texas about 4, LSU about 6.5, Tennessee about 10, Notre Dame about 3.5 and Georgia about 8.5. The two models split against the line in three games: Alabama–LSU, Miami–Notre Dame and Georgia–Ole Miss. The biggest is Georgia, where SP+ has the Bulldogs by about 8.5 and FPI by about 1.5.

Predictions

Utah 27, BYU 20. FPI’s ratings make Utah about a 6-point favorite at home, a little more than the 4.5-point line, and ESPN gives the Utes a 65.7 percent chance of winning. SP+’s ratings make it about 5.5, also above the line. Utah just scored 42 in a half against a team that beat Texas Tech; BYU let Arizona State back into its game in the second half and got one touchdown from a replay ruling the Big 12 says was wrong. BYU’s defense, six sacks on Saturday, is what keeps this close. Utah wins and covers. Under 48.5.

What it means. This is the end of our promise. We have kept BYU ahead of Utah for weeks because we said we would wait for this game. The winner leads the Big 12 race and takes the higher spot in our ranking. ESPN’s committee column points out that both teams could still get in, with a rematch in the Big 12 title game: the loser of Saturday would have a case as a two-loss runner-up if it wins in Arlington.

Texas 24, Missouri 17. FPI’s ratings make Texas about a 7.5-point favorite on the road, and ESPN gives Texas a 71.3 percent chance, both well above the 3.5-point line. SP+’s ratings make it about 4, just above it. The Texas defense has carried it for two weeks; the offense was sacked six times by Mississippi State and is running poorly. Missouri got Ahmad Hardy back. But Texas has three wins over teams in our top 14, and Missouri’s two losses include a 31-3 loss to Ole Miss. Texas wins and covers. Under 48.5.

What it means. Three of Texas’s last four games are on the road, with LSU next. A loss here would be its third, and with LSU still ahead, its at-large case would be in serious trouble. A Missouri win would put it into our top 15 and the playoff conversation.

LSU 27, Alabama 24. FPI’s ratings make LSU only about a 2.5-point favorite at home, less than the 4.5-point line; ESPN gives LSU a 57 percent chance of winning. SP+’s ratings make it about 6.5, more than the line, so the models split. We are going with FPI and a closer game. LSU had a bye to prepare for three straight ranked opponents. Alabama also had a week off, but it was without its top corner, Zabien Brown, in its last game and had a player suspended. We think LSU wins a close game. LSU wins, Alabama covers. Under 52.5.

What it means. The loser has three losses. That would almost certainly end its playoff case, and for LSU it would come with Texas and Tennessee still to play.

Tennessee 27, Kentucky 20. FPI’s ratings make Tennessee about a 6-point favorite, about the same as the 5.5-point line; ESPN gives the Vols a 66.8 percent chance. SP+’s ratings make it about 10; SP+ has Tennessee 11th and Kentucky 34th. Kentucky entered its bye leading the country in ESPN’s strength-of-record metric and has won six straight, but its wins have come by an average of 8.1 points. Its pass defense allows almost 240 yards a game. Tennessee wins and covers. Under 50.5.

What it means. This settles our biggest disagreement with the outside view. A Tennessee win confirms the order we have held, with Tennessee ahead of Alabama and Kentucky. A Kentucky win puts Kentucky ahead of Tennessee, but Alabama beat Kentucky by 28 and Tennessee beat Alabama by 16. That would be a three-team cycle, like the one with Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri, and we would have to break one result and explain which.

Notre Dame 30, Miami 27. FPI’s ratings make Notre Dame about a 3-point favorite at home, almost exactly the 3.5-point line; ESPN gives the Irish a 61.3 percent chance. SP+’s ratings make it about 3.5, right on the line. Miami is still first in offensive SP+, and it has two Heisman candidates in Mensah and Toney. Its defense just gave up 35 to North Carolina, with soft coverage and missed tackles, according to its own coach. Notre Dame’s defense was slow to start against Navy and then held the Midshipmen to 56 yards in the second half. We think Notre Dame wins at home by a field goal, which means Miami covers. Over 55.5.

What it means. A Notre Dame loss would give it two, with SMU still to play and no conference title to fall back on. Last week we wrote that losing to Navy would end any argument for a bye; a loss to Miami would make the field itself the question. A Miami loss is less damaging. ESPN notes it would still be the ACC favorite and could reach the field as the league champion, though it would almost certainly lose the top seed.

What it means, part two. This is a rematch of last year’s game, which ended up deciding a playoff spot between these two teams. Whoever wins goes into the committee’s second ranking with a win the committee will find hard to look past.

Georgia 26, Ole Miss 24. FPI’s ratings make Georgia only about a 1.5-point favorite on the road, less than the 3-point line; ESPN gives Georgia a 55.5 percent chance. SP+’s ratings make it about 8.5, well above the line, and SP+ now has Georgia first in the country. This is the biggest split between the models on the board, and we are siding with FPI because of Georgia’s passing game. Georgia’s defense is the reason to pick it: four takeaways against Florida, and CBS notes it has already held Alabama’s Keelon Russell in check. Its passing game, 101 yards against one of the worst pass defenses in the SEC, is the reason not to lay three on the road against an Ole Miss offense that just converted 13 of 16 third downs. Georgia wins, Ole Miss covers. Under 56.5.

What it means. A Georgia loss would be its second in the SEC and would likely cost it a bye. A third loss for Ole Miss would end its playoff case, as we wrote last week.

This week’s tally. Six favorites straight up. Against the spread, three favorites (Utah, Texas, Tennessee) and three underdogs (Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss). Five unders and one over.

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Quick Hits

Texas 34, Ole Miss 27. We had Texas winning and covering, and it nearly gave all of it back. Arch Manning threw a touchdown pass and ran for his first two scores of the season, and Texas led 24-3 at halftime. Ole Miss then scored on a strip-sack recovered in the end zone on the first possession of the third quarter, and Trinidad Chambliss threw two touchdown passes to Horatio Fields to tie it early in the fourth. Raleek Brown, who finished with 157 yards, broke a 47-yard run to set up Manning’s 1-yard keeper for the lead, and Texas added a field goal. Ole Miss still recovered an onside kick, and the game ended on Jelani McDonald’s interception in the end zone. It was the second time this season Texas has had to defend a last-play pass after an onside recovery. Texas was flagged 14 times for 134 yards, both season highs. Kewan Lacy left with the same shoulder injury that kept him out of the Florida game, and Texas receiver Cam Coleman was helped off after landing on his left shoulder. We had the under. The game went over.

UCF 39, BYU 31, in double overtime. We had BYU by ten. Keyone Jenkins threw the winning 2-yard touchdown pass to Grayson Brousseau in the second overtime, and Bear Bachmeier’s fourth-down throw from the UCF 4 fell incomplete. Regulation ended strangely. UCF was stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 1 with under two minutes left, forced a three-and-out, and got into field-goal range when a sack and fumble was overturned to an incomplete pass and BYU was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. BYU blocked the 47-yard try. UCF’s Will Stone recovered it, and because UCF had kicked on third down it would have had another try, but Stone’s helmet had come off, and the 10-second runoff sent the game to overtime. Jenkins, making his fifth start for the injured Alonza Barnett III, threw for 293 yards and three touchdowns. It was UCF’s first win over a top-five team. BYU had beaten Notre Dame seven days earlier.

Cincinnati 37, Texas Tech 24. Texas Tech’s first loss came in the game nobody had circled. JC French IV threw four touchdown passes and Cole Tabb ran for 173 yards, and Cincinnati ran for 252 yards against a defense that had not allowed a rushing touchdown all season. Texas Tech was flagged 12 times for 75 yards, a season high for a team that averaged 5.4 penalties a game, and turned it over three times, all of which led to points. Will Hammond lost a fumble and threw an interception. Cincinnati fans chanted Brendan Sorsby’s name; Sorsby’s transfer from Cincinnati to Texas Tech fell through after he admitted betting on college football. Joey McGuire said afterward that his team will have to win out, which is what it did a year ago after its first loss. It was Cincinnati’s first home win over a top-ten team since 2006.

Miami 52, Pittsburgh 23. We had Miami by 21 and Pitt covering. Miami won by 29 in its first game as the AP’s No. 1 team in nearly 24 years. Malachi Toney set a school record with 16 catches, for 194 yards and three touchdowns, and Darian Mensah completed 31 of 37 passes for 387 yards and four scores. Miami scored on seven of its first eight possessions and converted ten of its first 12 third downs. Toney had 159 receiving yards at halftime, the same as Pitt’s total offense. One correction to our preview: Pitt did not start Corey Dailey. Holden Geriner, who started against North Carolina in Week 6, got the job back and threw for 268 yards. Pitt has lost three straight and is 5-3.

Utah 21, Houston 13. We had Utah, and we had it by four. Utah was held scoreless in a first half for the first time in two years, and Houston led 13-0 late in the third quarter. Then Devon Dampier took over. He ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns, including a 22-yarder to get Utah on the board, and Wayshawn Parker’s 5-yard run off a direct snap gave the Utes the lead with 11:57 left. Jackson Bennee’s sack forced a Conner Weigman fumble at the Houston 9 with 2:15 left, and Dampier scored on the next play. Weigman completed 4 of 12 passes in the fourth quarter. Utah scored the last 21 points, has won 13 straight, the longest active streak in the country, and is the only unbeaten team left in the Big 12. Houston’s two losses are by two at Texas Tech and by eight at Utah.

South Carolina 27, Tennessee 24. Tennessee came from 14 down to lead 24-17, then went for it on fourth-and-1 at the South Carolina 39 with 3:35 left and was stuffed. LaNorris Sellers tied it with 1:17 left by carrying two defenders to the pylon, a touchdown upheld on review. Dylan Stewart then stripped George MacIntyre with 33 seconds left, Tomiway Durojaiye recovered, and Malik Orsan’s 48-yard field goal won it at the gun. Sellers threw for 210 yards and ran for 96. Tennessee had three touchdowns wiped out by penalties, two of them catches by Braylon Staley, and DeSean Bishop’s 130 rushing yards were wasted. It is South Carolina’s second straight win over a ranked team, after the 38-19 win at Florida two weeks ago, and Tennessee has lost a week after its biggest win of the season.

Indiana 13, Michigan 6, in overtime. Neither team scored a touchdown in regulation. Josh Hoover completed 8 of 18 passes for 81 yards, and Curt Cignetti said afterward that the staff discussed going to Grant Wilson in the second half because Hoover was not healthy. Hoover opened overtime with a 21-yard pass to Brock Schott and ran in from the 4 two plays later. Michigan started Tommy Carr over Bryce Underwood, and Carr was sacked four times, two of them leading to missed field goals, one after Michigan had reached the Indiana 1. Michigan reached the Indiana 3 in the final minute of regulation and settled for the tying field goal. In overtime, Carr’s last pass hit the ground short of the end zone. It was Indiana’s first win in Ann Arbor since 1967, and it kept Cignetti from his first two-game losing streak at Indiana.

Wisconsin 24, USC 7. USC ran 25 times for minus-17 yards, and Jayden Maiava, who came in with three interceptions on 224 throws, threw two in the first half. CBS notes the seven points were the fewest of Lincoln Riley’s career. Bryan Jackson, who transferred from USC, scored Wisconsin’s first touchdown, and Colton Joseph found Chris Brooks Jr. for a 16-yard score on fourth-and-2. Wisconsin is 5-2, and its losses are to Notre Dame and UCLA. USC is 6-2 and hosts Ohio State on Saturday.

App State 34, James Madison 31, in overtime. The last unbeaten team in the Group of Six lost on Thursday night. James London kicked four field goals, the last a 40-yarder to win it in overtime, after Morgan Suarez’s 47-yard try for James Madison hit the left upright. App State took its first lead with 6:03 left, on Henry Hasselbeck’s 4-yard touchdown pass after Colton Phares’s interception, and Camden Coleman tied it on a quarterback draw with three seconds left in regulation. CBS reports that James Madison kicked the extra point rather than going for two and the win. Running back George Pettaway left late with an apparent hamstring injury. FPI had given James Madison a 44.3 percent chance of making the playoff a week ago. It now gives the Dukes 7.5.

LSU 38, Auburn 17. Sam Leavitt completed 32 of 45 passes for a career-high 387 yards and accounted for four touchdowns, and LSU led 31-10 at halftime. Jackson Harris caught nine passes for 178 yards, one of them a 70-yard touchdown on a crossing route, and Trey’Dez Green came back from four games out with a knee sprain and caught a touchdown. Leavitt has gone two straight games without a turnover, after giving the ball away regularly through September. LSU blitzed and spied Byrum Brown, who had run for 115 yards against Georgia, and sacked him six times. It ended LSU’s eight-game losing streak on the road in the SEC.

Alabama 31, Texas A&M 20. Alabama trailed 20-17 going into the fourth quarter. Marcel Reed lost a fumble on a fourth-and-1 sneak, Keelon Russell hit Rico Scott for 38 yards, and Russell threw two fourth-quarter touchdown passes to end Alabama’s two-game losing streak. Russell threw for 311 yards and three scores, and Scott caught six passes for 156. Dijon Lee Jr. returned an interception 39 yards for a touchdown. Alabama did it with a thin secondary. Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. was suspended for violating team rules, Red Morgan was ejected for targeting, and top corner Zabien Brown is out with a leg injury. Ryan Coleman-Williams missed his second straight game with a knee injury. Alabama is off, then goes to LSU.

Ohio State was off, and the news got worse. Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing arm and shoulder. Ryan Day has not given a timeline, and The Athletic reported on October 20th that Ohio State is planning for the possibility that he misses the rest of the season, including the playoff. A week ago we wrote that Sayin was expected back in weeks, which was what Day had said. That is no longer the working assumption. Freshman Luke Fahey and sophomore Tavien St. Clair split first-team snaps during the off week, and Day has not named a starter for USC.

The rest of the ranked teams, and the ones that matter. UCLA beat Michigan State 28-10 to go to 7-0. Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 34-17 and is 7-1. Minnesota beat Iowa 13-10 on a game-winning field goal, and Illinois beat Oregon 21-10, the Ducks’ third loss before November for the first time since 2018. Boise State was tied 10-10 at Washington State late in the third quarter and won 31-10. New Mexico beat North Dakota State 21-16. Arizona beat Iowa State 39-3, SMU beat Cal 59-20, Northwestern beat Rutgers 42-14 and Oklahoma State beat Colorado 57-24. Oklahoma won 23-15 at Mississippi State, where Kamario Taylor came back from his foot injury and left again in the first quarter. UTSA won 42-19 at Tulane, Toledo beat Western Michigan 45-38, Liberty won 34-6 at Kennesaw State, Memphis beat East Carolina in overtime and Wyoming beat Air Force 28-14. Virginia Tech beat Clemson for the first time since 2007, Kansas beat Baylor 25-24 on a blocked field goal, and NC State fired Dave Doeren after losing at Stanford. Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Florida, Missouri, Wake Forest, Nebraska and Oregon State were off.

Power Rankings

Georgia moves up one. The Bulldogs were off, and they move because BYU lost. ESPN’s committee projection makes the same move and argues that the 20-17 win at Alabama is better than anything Indiana or Notre Dame has. Alabama’s win over Texas A&M helped it. The home loss to Auburn looks a little worse after LSU won at Auburn by 21. FPI rates Georgia fourth. Florida is Saturday in Atlanta, and ESPN points out that the head-to-head could decide a tie between two-loss SEC teams in December.

BYU drops one. A double-overtime loss on the road to a 4-3 team, a week after the biggest win in program history, costs a spot and not more. BYU falls behind Georgia, which did not play. It stays ahead of Notre Dame because the two have the same record and BYU beat the Irish eight days ago; ESPN’s committee projection does the same. It stays ahead of Utah, as we said it would, until they play on November 7th. We will say plainly that Saturday tested that promise. BYU lost a game it should have won, and Utah beat a team with a winning record for the first time. But the two have one loss between them, BYU’s is a coin flip on the road, and the game that settles it is two weeks away. FPI has Utah 10th and BYU 15th. Arizona State comes to Provo on Saturday.

Indiana moves up one. It was the ugliest win of the week, and it moves the Hoosiers past a Texas Tech team that lost. Indiana is 7-1, its only loss is by four to Ohio State, and FPI rates it sixth. The problem is the offense. Hoover is hurt, Indiana completed one pass after halftime, and ESPN notes the Hoosiers have been a few plays from losing in three of their last four Big Ten wins. Minnesota, which just beat Iowa, is next.

Utah moves up one. The Utes beat a team with a winning record for the first time, and they did it after trailing 13-0. They pass Texas Tech. They stay behind BYU, for the reason above. ESPN points out the hole that remains: Utah’s strength of schedule is the lowest of any contender by about 60 spots. A trip to Cincinnati, which just beat Texas Tech by 13, comes before BYU.

UCLA moves up one. The Bruins are 7-0 and 5-0 in the Big Ten, alone in first place. Ty Dieffenbach made his second start, and the defense held Michigan State’s offense to ten points. ESPN notes UCLA is in the top five in its Strength of Record metric, with three road wins over power-conference teams, and its win over Wisconsin got better on Saturday. UCLA passes Texas Tech. Nevada comes to the Rose Bowl on Saturday.

Texas moves up eight. That is the biggest rise we have given a team since Florida’s ten in Week 4. Texas has three wins over teams in our Top 14: Ohio State, at Tennessee and now Ole Miss. No other team has more than two. It also has two losses, both at home by three points, to Oklahoma and Florida, and it nearly lost a 21-point lead on Saturday. CBS’s projection of the AP poll, ESPN’s committee projection and CBS’s bowl projection all have Texas tenth. We have it ninth, ahead of Tennessee, for the first time since Texas beat the Vols in Knoxville. A week ago Tennessee was 6-1 and Texas 4-2, and we ranked the better record. Now they are 6-2 and 5-2, and the head-to-head decides it. FPI rates Texas eighth. Mississippi State is next.

Why Ohio State is ahead of Texas. Texas beat Ohio State 24-23 in Austin in Week 2, after trailing 23-3. It was a one-point loss on the road. Ohio State is 6-1 and Texas is 5-2, and Ohio State has not lost since. The records are closer than they were a week ago, and Ohio State is now without Sayin. If the Buckeyes lose at USC on Saturday, both teams could have two losses, and Texas would move ahead.

Why Texas is ahead of Florida. Florida won 27-24 in Austin on October 17th, by three points. Both teams are 5-2. The result was close, so our rule allows the override, and the rest of the two résumés is why we use it. Texas has wins over Ohio State, at Tennessee and over Ole Miss, and its two losses are by three points each. Florida has wins at Texas, over Ole Miss and at Auburn, but it also lost by 28 at Missouri and by 19 at home to South Carolina.

Texas Tech drops four. The Red Raiders lost by 13 to a team that was 4-2, with 12 penalties and three turnovers. It would be a bigger drop for a team with more losses. Texas Tech is still 6-1, its only loss is to a 5-2 team, and its best win, over Houston, still holds up. It stays ahead of Tennessee, which lost to a 4-3 team on Saturday too. ESPN’s committee projection has left Texas Tech out of its twelve, and CBS’s bowl projection now sends it to the Pop-Tarts Bowl. FPI rates it 14th. Arizona, also 3-1 in the league, comes to Lubbock on Saturday.

Ole Miss drops four. The Rebels lost by seven on the road to a team ranked ahead of them, and came back from 21 down to do it. That is a good loss as losses go. But Ole Miss now has two, and it falls behind Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky, which have the same number or fewer. Its wins over LSU and Missouri keep it ahead of both. Lacy is hurt again. ESPN’s committee projection has Ole Miss 11th. Auburn comes to Oxford on Saturday, and Georgia comes on November 7th.

Why Ole Miss is ahead of Florida. Florida beat Ole Miss 52-28 in Gainesville. That is a lopsided result, and our rule says we do not override a result like that on records alone. Both teams are now 5-2, so we owe an explanation. Florida also lost 45-17 at Missouri, and Missouri lost 31-3 at Ole Miss. All three teams are 5-2, and each has beaten one of the others by 24 points or more. There is no order of the three that respects all three results, so we have to break one. We keep Ole Miss ahead of Missouri and Missouri ahead of Florida, and override Florida’s win over Ole Miss, because Florida is the one with two lopsided losses. Ole Miss’s other loss is by seven at Texas. Florida’s other loss is by 19 at home to a team that is now 4-3. ESPN noted this week that some committee members might rank Florida ahead of both Texas and Ole Miss. We understand the argument. A loss by 19 at home to South Carolina is why we do not.

LSU moves up three. The Tigers played their best half of the season and won by 21 on the road. They pass Houston, Iowa and USC, which all lost. They stay behind Ole Miss and Kentucky, which beat them. ESPN’s committee projection has LSU 12th, and its analytics give LSU the second-hardest remaining schedule in the country. After the off week, LSU hosts Alabama and Texas and goes to Tennessee.

Houston drops two. The Cougars led 13-0 in Salt Lake City and lost by eight. Both of their losses are close and on the road, to teams ranked ahead of them. But they are 3-2 in the Big 12 with Utah unbeaten, and the league path is mostly gone. Ole Miss and LSU fall in and move past them. Houston is off, then hosts Cincinnati on November 7th.

Wake Forest moves up two. The Demon Deacons were off. They move because Iowa and USC lost and fell out. Wake Forest is 6-1 and 4-1 in the ACC, its only loss is to Miami, and FPI rates it 16th, the second-best team in the league. Virginia is next.

Boise State moves up two. The Broncos were tied with a 1-7 Washington State team going into the fourth quarter and then scored three touchdowns. Dylan Riley ran for 128 yards, 72 of them on one run, and Maddux Madsen is the only quarterback in the country with ten or more touchdown passes and no interceptions. Boise has won six straight and is bowl-eligible for the 29th year in a row. Its only loss was 34-27 at Oregon in Week 1. Oregon is now 4-3 and out of our ranking, and we keep Boise ahead because that was a seven-point road loss and the teams have gone in opposite directions since. Both ESPN and CBS now project Boise as the Group of Six team in the field. Texas State is next.

Missouri returns at 19. The Tigers were off. They return because Iowa and USC lost, and because of the three-way problem above: Missouri beat Florida by 28, and we rank Missouri ahead of the Gators. Missouri’s losses are at Mississippi State, by seven, and by 28 at Ole Miss. Mississippi State has since lost three straight, so the first one has gotten worse. FPI rates Missouri 28th. It goes to Arkansas on Saturday.

Florida enters at 20. The Gators were off. They have the two best wins of any team in the back half of our ranking, at Texas and over Ole Miss, along with the two worst losses. FPI rates them 17th, ahead of Houston, Boise State and Missouri. Georgia is Saturday in Atlanta, and Florida’s remaining schedule after that, Oklahoma, at Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State, is a path to nine wins.

Why the rest held. Miami holds at No. 1 after the best performance of anyone at the top, and FPI gives it a 97.4 percent chance of making the playoff. Ohio State holds at No. 2. We said a week ago that if the Buckeyes lost at USC or to Oregon we would move them then. They were off, and the only team above them won. The Sayin news belongs in their playoff number, which is where we put it. Notre Dame holds at five, behind BYU on the head-to-head, and ESPN notes its opening win over Wisconsin got better on Saturday.

Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky hold at 11, 12 and 13, and that order needs explaining. Tennessee lost to a 4-3 team on a walk-off field goal and would normally drop. But Tennessee beat Alabama 26-10 in Knoxville, and Alabama beat Kentucky 45-17 in Lexington. Neither result was close, and none of the three records gives us a reason to override them. So the order holds even though Kentucky is 7-1 and the other two are 6-2. CBS’s poll projection and ESPN’s committee projection both have Kentucky ninth, and this is our biggest disagreement with both. It is also the one most likely to change on the field. Kentucky goes to Tennessee on November 7th.

Iowa and USC leave the ranking. Iowa lost 13-10 at Minnesota and has scored more than 20 points against one Big Ten team. CBS writes that the loss virtually ends the Hawkeyes’ playoff threat. USC lost 24-7 at Wisconsin with minus-17 rushing yards and has Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA still to play. Northwestern is the first team out. It is 6-1, its only loss is by six at Indiana, and FPI rates it 20th. Arizona, SMU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Iowa and USC are the next group.

The outside check

The real post-Week 7 AP poll came out after we published last week, and it differed from the CBS projection we used on our board in a few places. The AP had Miami first and BYU second, where the projection had them the other way around, so our board’s labels for those two were reversed. It had Notre Dame fourth and Georgia fifth, Utah tenth and UCLA ninth, Kentucky 12th and Alabama 13th, and it ranked Arizona at 25 and left Oregon out. Our board used the projection’s rankings, labeled as such.

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 8 AP poll goes Miami, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia, BYU, Indiana, UCLA, Utah, Kentucky and Texas. It has Alabama 11th, Texas Tech 12th, Wake Forest 13th, Ole Miss 14th, LSU 15th, Florida 16th, Tennessee 17th, Boise State 18th, Missouri 19th and SMU 20th, with Northwestern, Arizona, Houston, Oklahoma State and Wisconsin rounding out the 25. It projects Iowa and USC out. The real poll was not out at press time.

ESPN’s committee projection goes Miami, Ohio State, Georgia, BYU, Notre Dame, Indiana, Utah, UCLA, Kentucky, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU, with LSU bumped out of the bracket by Boise State. Its byes go to Miami, Ohio State, Georgia and BYU. CBS’s bowl projection seeds Miami, Georgia, Utah and Ohio State first through fourth, then UCLA, Kentucky, Indiana, BYU, LSU, Texas and Notre Dame, with Boise State 12th. Last week we wrote that none of the three outside projections had Texas in its twelve. This week, both brackets do.

We differ from the outside view in three places. We have Kentucky 13th, where the poll projection and ESPN both have it ninth; the reason is above. We have Texas Tech tenth, where ESPN and CBS’s bowl projection both have it out of the field. And we have BYU ahead of Notre Dame, which ESPN does and the poll projection does not. Our top eight is the same as ESPN’s, in the same order.

FPI’s October 25th run has Ohio State first, then Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia, Alabama, Indiana, LSU, Texas, Ole Miss and Utah. It is lower than we are on BYU, at 15th, and UCLA, at 31st. It also has Kentucky 24th and Boise State 32nd. As we have said before, FPI rates how good a team is likely to be from here, and we give more weight to the results a team already has. SP+, updated Sunday, has Ohio State first, then Georgia, Notre Dame, LSU, Miami, Indiana, Alabama, Texas, Texas Tech and Utah. Its résumé rating, which compares each margin to what an average top-five team would be expected to do, has Miami first, then Notre Dame, Ohio State, Utah, UCLA, Georgia, Indiana, LSU, Alabama and Northwestern. The biggest disagreements with us are LSU, fourth in SP+ and 15th here; UCLA, 17th in SP+ though fifth in résumé; BYU, 13th in SP+ and 12th in résumé; and Kentucky, 32nd in SP+ and 17th in résumé. Northwestern, our first team out, is 20th in SP+ and tenth in résumé, ahead of BYU, Wake Forest and Texas.

The first College Football Playoff committee ranking comes out Tuesday, November 3rd. ESPN’s projection above is the best guide to what it will look like. Next week we will set our ranking next to the committee’s.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, and the Change column is against August. The week-over-week moves are below.

Texas gains 20 points, to 60, the biggest gain on the board this week. It is the only team with three wins over teams in our top 14, and both bracket projections we track now have it in. FPI gives it 57.4 percent. A week ago we wrote that Texas could not lose a third game and stay in the conversation. It did not lose, and it is back in it. Utah gains 16, to 64, for the first win on its schedule over a team with a winning record, and because it is now the only unbeaten team in the Big 12. LSU also gains 16, to 40, for its best performance of the season, with Alabama and Texas both coming to Baton Rouge. Kentucky gains 14, to 48, and UCLA gains ten, to 52; both are unbeaten or one-loss teams that won while the teams around them lost. Alabama gains eight, to 58, for a win that keeps it ahead of Kentucky in the margin chain and in front of the trip to LSU. Wake Forest gains eight, to 26, without playing, as the second-best team in a league whose champion is guaranteed a spot. Georgia, Notre Dame and Indiana each gain four, and Miami two.

Texas Tech gives back 18 points, to 44. Its best path was always the Big 12 title, and it now has a league loss and a résumé ESPN has left out of the field. Tennessee gives back 16, to 28, for losing to a 4-3 team a week after beating Alabama, with Kentucky and LSU still to come. BYU gives back ten, to 56. The Notre Dame win keeps it in ESPN’s field, but it now likely has to win at Utah to get there. Houston also gives back ten, to 14. Ole Miss gives back eight, to 36, which is light for a loss because it lost to a team ranked ahead of it, on the road, after a comeback.

Ohio State gives back six, to 76, without playing. That is the Sayin news. The Buckeyes are still the second-best team in our ranking and still control their path, but they now go to USC, host Oregon and play Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan with a freshman or a sophomore at quarterback. FPI has not moved them down; it gives Ohio State 90.9 percent. ESPN says the committee will not judge the Buckeyes until it sees them without Sayin, which starts Saturday night.

Florida joins the table at 14 and Missouri at six, both from the field. Iowa, at 24 a week ago, and USC, at 18, fall into the field. The field drops from 1.54 to 1.40. It takes on Iowa and USC at much lower numbers than they had, and it loses value as Oregon, Mississippi State and Pittsburgh all lost again. It now holds Northwestern, Arizona, SMU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Iowa, USC and Oregon. The Group of Six line drops slightly, to 1.10, because the only team that could have pushed a second Group of Six bid into the conversation, an unbeaten James Madison, lost. The next section explains how the line divides.

The 19 teams in the table sum to 9.50. With the Group of Six line and the field, the total is twelve.

The Group of Six Race

One playoff spot goes to the highest-ranked conference champion outside the power conferences, and a week ago it had no clear favorite. It has one now. James Madison lost on Thursday, Boise State won on Saturday, and ESPN’s committee projection, CBS’s bowl projection and FPI all now put Boise State in the field.

Records against ranked teams count teams ranked when the game was played. FPI ranks are from its October 25th run, and each playoff number is FPI’s estimate of that team’s chance of making the 12-team field. SP+ and résumé SP+ ranks are from Bill Connelly’s October 25th update.

Who is best. FPI’s answer has not changed. It rates Boise State about three and a half points better than New Mexico on a neutral field and about six better than James Madison. A week ago SP+ went the other way, with James Madison 28th, New Mexico 30th and Boise 37th. SP+ now has James Madison 29th and Boise State 30th, both at 10.9, with New Mexico down to 37th. Its résumé rating has Boise first in the group, 19th, just ahead of New Mexico at 20th. Boise also has the best results in the group: its only loss is by seven at Oregon, and it has won six straight, including at Fresno State and by 25 over Western Michigan.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. Boise State, and it is no longer close. FPI gives the Broncos a 47.6 percent chance of making the playoff, more than twice anyone else in the group. The case is the schedule as much as the team. Boise has the best win available to it still ahead, Oregon State on the blue turf on November 14th, and a Pac-12 title would come with a résumé no other Group of Six champion can match. The one thing that could change it is that game. Oregon State is also 3-0 in the league.

Who else. New Mexico is 6-1 and alone in first in the Mountain West at 3-0 after beating North Dakota State, and FPI gives it a 69.8 percent chance of winning the league. Its only loss is 14-6 at Oklahoma. UTSA is 7-1, 4-0 in the American and has won five straight, and FPI gives it a 16.0 percent chance of making the playoff, the third-best in the group, almost entirely on its record. Its only loss is to Texas. James Madison is 7-1 and still leads the Sun Belt East at 4-1, but it has not played a ranked team, and now it does not have an unbeaten record to stand on. Liberty is 6-1 and level with Jacksonville State at 3-0 in Conference USA.

We now put Boise State’s share of our 1.10 at about 0.55, roughly half. New Mexico is about 0.20, UTSA about 0.12, James Madison and Oregon State about 0.08 each, and the rest about 0.07. A week ago it was about 0.40 for James Madison and 0.36 for Boise. This week Texas State goes to Boise on Saturday night, Oregon State plays at Fresno State, New Mexico goes to San José State, and James Madison hosts Troy on Thursday. UTSA is off.

Conference Projections

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of winning its conference.

ACC. Miami 75 (up 2), Wake Forest 11, SMU 7 (up 1), Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 1 (down 1), Duke 1, field 1 (down 2). Miami is 5-0 in the league and gets North Carolina on Saturday. SMU is 4-1 after a 39-point win over Cal. Pitt has lost three straight. The field shrinks because North Carolina lost at home to Syracuse and Clemson lost to Virginia Tech. Wake Forest was off. FPI has Miami at 82.1 percent, Wake Forest at 10.4 and SMU at 5.9.

SEC. Georgia 40, Kentucky 15 (up 5), Alabama 12 (up 3), Ole Miss 8 (down 5), LSU 7 (up 2), Texas 6 (up 2), Tennessee 5 (down 7), Florida 2, Missouri 2, field 3. Kentucky is 5-1 in the league and Georgia 4-1, and those are the only two teams with one league loss. Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Florida all have two. Kentucky’s number trails Georgia’s by this much because Kentucky still goes to Tennessee and Missouri and hosts Florida, and because Alabama holds the tiebreaker over it. Tennessee loses the most because it lost to a 4-3 team and still has Kentucky and LSU to play. FPI has Georgia at 46.6 percent, Alabama at 15.9, LSU at 9.9, Texas at 7.3 and Kentucky at 6.9.

Big Ten. Ohio State 44 (down 6), Indiana 26 (up 4), UCLA 16 (up 4), Wisconsin 3 (up 2), Northwestern 2 (new), Iowa 2 (down 3), Oregon 1 (down 3), USC 1 (down 2), Nebraska 1, field 4 (up 2). Ohio State is 4-0 and still holds the tiebreaker over Indiana, but it loses six points for the same reason it loses them in the playoff table. UCLA is 5-0, the only unbeaten team in the league, and its schedule does not include Ohio State or Indiana. Northwestern comes out of the field at 3-1. The field grows because Minnesota beat Iowa and Illinois beat Oregon. FPI has Ohio State at 59.1 percent, Indiana at 32.2 and UCLA at 5.1.

Big 12. Utah 40 (up 13), BYU 23 (down 4), Texas Tech 20 (down 11), Arizona 6 (up 4), Houston 4 (down 4), Oklahoma State 3 (up 2), Baylor 1 (down 1), field 3 (up 1). Utah is 4-0 and alone in first. BYU, Texas Tech, Arizona and Oklahoma State are all 3-1. Texas Tech loses more than BYU because BYU still controls a path through Salt Lake City and Texas Tech, which plays neither BYU nor Utah, now needs help. Arizona goes to Lubbock on Saturday. Cincinnati, in the field, gets Utah on Saturday and Houston after that. FPI has Utah at 34.7 percent, BYU at 22.0, Texas Tech at 17.6 and Arizona at 10.2.

Pac-12. Boise State 68 (up 4), Oregon State 20, Fresno State 4 (down 3), Texas State 4 (up 2), Washington State 1 (down 3), San Diego State 1, Utah State 1, Colorado State 1. Boise State and Oregon State are both 3-0, and Oregon State was off. Fresno State has lost two straight. Washington State is 0-4. FPI has Boise State at 64.5 percent and Oregon State at 29.5.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for an eighth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC, the Pac-12, the American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and the MAC. FPI’s October 25th run has ten SEC teams in its top 25, six from the Big Ten, five from the Big 12 and three from the ACC, plus Notre Dame. That is one fewer Big Ten team than a week ago, after Iowa and USC lost. SP+’s top 25 has eight Big Ten teams, seven from the SEC, six from the Big 12 and three from the ACC, plus Notre Dame. Kentucky, 32nd, is not in it.

The SEC has two teams with one league loss and five with two. Kentucky is 5-1 and Georgia 4-1. Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Florida all have two, and Texas and Missouri are 2-2. ESPN’s committee projection has five SEC teams in its twelve and none in its top two. Saturday reshuffled the middle again: Texas beat Ole Miss, South Carolina beat Tennessee for its second straight win over a ranked team, and LSU and Alabama both won after losing streaks. Texas A&M is 1-4 in the league a year after reaching the playoff. Georgia and Florida meet in Atlanta on Saturday. Alabama, LSU, Kentucky and Tennessee are all off, and they play each other in some combination on November 7th.

The Big Ten has one unbeaten team, UCLA, and Ohio State is 4-0 behind it. Indiana is 4-1. Northwestern, Minnesota and Wisconsin are all 3-1, and Minnesota now has wins over Iowa and Michigan in the same season for the first time since 2014. Wisconsin beat USC and has a path to the title game that runs through Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota. Oregon, a preseason No. 2 team, is 4-3 after losing 21-10 at Illinois, and CBS calls its season a failure. Michigan is 1-3 in the league, Penn State 0-4 and Michigan State 0-5. Ohio State plays at USC on Saturday night.

The Big 12 went from three unbeaten teams to one. Utah is 4-0, and BYU, Texas Tech, Arizona and Oklahoma State are all 3-1. CBS’s view is that the league wasted its chance at three playoff teams in one afternoon, and ESPN says the runner-up’s case is now harder to make. Cincinnati, 5-2, beat Texas Tech and gets Utah and Houston next, and CBS calls it the league’s agent of chaos. Arizona has won five straight and goes to Texas Tech. Baylor’s loss to Kansas ended a 14-game winning streak in the series, and CBS writes that Dave Aranda’s tenure is over in all but name.

The ACC has Miami and then a three-way race for the other spot in the title game. Miami is 5-0, and SMU and Wake Forest are 4-1 and play each other in November. Virginia Tech is 3-2 after beating Clemson for the first time since 2007, and CBS notes James Franklin has the Hokies bowl-eligible in his first season. NC State fired Dave Doeren after losing at Stanford, which is 4-4. North Carolina lost at home to Syracuse, Duke won 19-16 at Virginia on a trick-play touchdown pass with 1:14 left, and Pitt has lost three straight. Florida State is 1-3 in the league and hosts Clemson on Saturday.

The Pac-12 is still the best of the group. Its average team rates higher in FPI than any league below it, at about 2.6 points below average to the American’s 6.1. Its median team is now essentially tied with the American’s, about four points below average in each. FPI has Boise State 32nd and Oregon State 49th, and no other league in the group has two teams in the top 50. Three of its eight teams are now below 100th, up from two. Boise State and Oregon State are both 3-0 and meet on November 14th. SP+ differs on one point: it also has two Mountain West teams in its top 50, New Mexico 37th and North Dakota State 42nd, to go with Boise State 30th and Oregon State 50th. It puts four Pac-12 teams below 100th.

The American has UTSA at 4-0 and North Texas at 3-0, with Army 4-1 and Memphis 3-1. UTSA is 7-1 after winning at Tulane, and FPI gives it a 16.0 percent chance of making the playoff, the best in the league by a wide margin. FPI still makes North Texas a slight favorite to win the league, at 35.0 percent to UTSA’s 32.7. Memphis needed overtime to beat East Carolina on Thursday. The league still has no team in FPI’s top 50, and five of its 14 teams are below 100th. UTSA is off this week.

The Mountain West has New Mexico alone at 3-0 after its 21-16 win over North Dakota State, and FPI gives the Lobos a 69.8 percent chance of winning the league. Wyoming is 4-1 after beating Air Force 28-14, which ended Air Force’s four-game winning streak. North Dakota State and Air Force are both 3-2. New Mexico is 41st in FPI and the next team in the league is North Dakota State at 71st. Half of the league’s ten teams are below 100th. New Mexico goes to San José State on Saturday.

The Sun Belt lost its playoff candidate on Thursday night. James Madison still leads the East at 4-1, and FPI gives it an 84.9 percent chance of winning the division, but its playoff chance fell from 44.3 percent to 7.5. Louisiana Tech leads the West at 3-0. The next Sun Belt team in FPI after James Madison is Louisiana Tech, at 77th, and six of the league’s 14 teams are below 100th. App State, which beat James Madison, is 2-1 and goes to Georgia Southern. James Madison hosts Troy on Thursday.

The MAC is still last by a wide margin. Ohio is alone at 4-0, with Toledo, Western Michigan, Buffalo and Miami (Ohio) all 3-1 behind it. Toledo beat Western Michigan 45-38, and FPI now rates Toledo the best team in the league, at 79th, and makes it a slight favorite to win the league over Western Michigan, 35.4 percent to 35.1. Ten of the 13 teams are below 100th in FPI, and no MAC team has as much as a 1 percent chance of making the playoff.

The Week 9 Board

All times Eastern. All games are Saturday, October 31st. Kickoff times and sites are from CBS’s schedule. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, and percentages are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor; each percentage is the favorite’s chance of winning. Notre Dame and Navy play at Gillette Stadium, with Navy as the designated home team, and Florida and Georgia play at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 8 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. The market and the Match-Up Predictor have the same favorite in all six games. The biggest gap in degree is in Los Angeles, where ESPN gives Ohio State an 82.8 percent chance of winning a game the market makes a seven-point spread. A seven-point favorite usually wins about seven times in ten. That gap is most likely the market pricing Sayin’s absence more heavily than the model does. SP+ has the same favorite in all six. Its ratings make Notre Dame about 27 points better on a neutral field, Texas Tech about five at home, Ole Miss about 11, Georgia about 16 and a half, Ohio State about 12 and Miami about 18 and a half. It is below the line only on Notre Dame and Ole Miss, and like FPI, it rates Ohio State well above seven, from ratings built almost entirely on games Sayin started.

Predictions

Notre Dame 42, Navy 10. ESPN gives Notre Dame a 98.7 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 34 points on a neutral field. SP+ makes it about 27. The line is 30.5. Navy is 2-5 and has lost two straight, and Notre Dame’s defense allows 13.4 points a game, which ESPN calls by far the best of the one-loss teams it compared. The worry with a number this big is the clock: Navy runs it, and a game with fewer possessions is harder to win by five touchdowns. Notre Dame has also not played since losing at BYU. We think Notre Dame wins easily and just gets there. Notre Dame wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Notre Dame has no conference title game, so its margin for error is Miami on November 7th and SMU on November 21st. Losing this game would end any argument for a bye and probably for the field. CBS’s bowl projection already has the Irish as the last team in. Winning it changes nothing, which is the point.

Texas Tech 28, Arizona 24. ESPN gives Texas Tech a 67.1 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about six points in Lubbock. SP+ makes it about five. The line is 4.5. These are two teams going opposite ways. Arizona has won five straight, Noah Fifita has thrown for at least 275 yards and two touchdowns in five straight games, and the defense held Iowa State to 1.7 yards a carry. Its only loss is in overtime at BYU. Texas Tech just gave up 252 rushing yards at Cincinnati, committed 12 penalties and turned it over three times. We expect Texas Tech to win at home, because the Red Raiders were 18-2 since the start of last season before Saturday and their defense is still the best Arizona will have seen. Both models have Texas Tech covering, SP+ by less than a point. We do not think it is by more than four. Texas Tech wins, Arizona covers. Under.

What it means. Both teams are 3-1 in the Big 12, a game behind Utah. The loser has two league losses with Utah, BYU and Oklahoma State all ahead of it, and for Texas Tech that would end the title-game path and the playoff with it. McGuire said after the loss that his team has to win out. A Texas Tech win keeps that possible, with Oklahoma State in Stillwater on November 14th the next hard game. An Arizona win would make the Wildcats the most likely Big 12 team to face Utah or BYU in Arlington, and would put a third team in the conversation for a second bid.

Ole Miss 34, Auburn 23. ESPN gives Ole Miss a 74.9 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about nine points in Oxford. SP+ makes it about 11. The line is 11.5, so the market is more confident than both of these. Auburn beat Georgia two weeks ago and then lost by 21 at LSU, where Byrum Brown was sacked six times and the Tigers never got their running game started. Ole Miss has a defense ESPN describes as the weak point of the team, with 70 missed tackles this season, and it played without Kewan Lacy for most of Saturday. Chambliss brought Ole Miss back from 21 down in Austin. We think he is enough at home, and that Auburn scores enough to stay inside the number. Ole Miss wins, Auburn covers. Over.

What it means. Ole Miss is 3-2 in the SEC, and a third loss would end its playoff case. ESPN calls the November 7th game against Georgia the Rebels’ last chance at a ranked opponent, and a loss before it would leave them needing to win that one. For Auburn, this is the fourth ranked opponent in a row, and a loss would drop it to 4-4.

Georgia 31, Florida 20. ESPN gives Georgia an 82.1 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 12 points on a neutral field. SP+ makes it about 16 and a half. The line is 10.5. Georgia has had two weeks to recover from the Auburn loss, and Gunner Stockton, KJ Bolden and Nate Frazier all had two weeks to heal. Florida has had the same two weeks. It is the only team to have beaten both Texas and Ole Miss, and the defense that was last in the SEC when it went to Austin sacked Arch Manning five times. The thing to watch during the week is Florida’s quarterback. Aaron Philo was hurt against Texas, and Tramell Jones Jr. won that game in relief. Georgia scored 20 at Alabama and 24 at home against Auburn, its last two games. We think Georgia’s defense keeps Florida from making this a shootout, and that Georgia is the better team by more than ten. Georgia wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Georgia is 4-1 in the SEC and Kentucky is 5-1. A Georgia win keeps them the only two one-loss teams in the league, ahead of the November 7th trip to Ole Miss. A loss would give Georgia two league losses, put it in the pile with Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Florida, and leave Kentucky alone in first. ESPN points out that the head-to-head here could be what separates two-loss teams in the committee’s meeting room. In the playoff, Georgia can absorb a loss more easily than most, because of the Alabama win. It would still cost it a bye.

Florida has already beaten two teams that were in the top ten when it played them. A win would give the Gators wins over Texas, Ole Miss and Georgia, the best three-win set in the country, with Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State left. They would move into our playoff table well above 14. A loss leaves them at 5-3 with their best case already made.

Ohio State 23, USC 17. ESPN gives Ohio State an 82.8 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 13 points in Los Angeles. SP+ makes it about 12. The line is seven. Both models have Ohio State covering, but both are built almost entirely on games Sayin started. Ohio State has not named a starter, and its freshman, Luke Fahey, has thrown two meaningful passes this season, both incomplete at Indiana. What Ohio State has is a defense allowing 13.4 points a game, fifth in the country according to SB Nation’s Land-Grant Holy Land, against a USC offense that just ran for minus-17 yards and turned it over twice in the first half. USC’s scoring defense ranks 80th, which is the opening for whoever starts. We think the Buckeyes win the way they won at Iowa and Indiana, with defense and Jeremiah Smith. We do not think a young quarterback on the road at night wins by more than a touchdown. Ohio State wins, USC covers. Under.

What it means. This is the first time the committee sees Ohio State without Sayin, and it comes three days before the first ranking. A win, by any margin, keeps the Buckeyes 5-0 in the league with Oregon coming to Columbus. We said a week ago that if Ohio State lost one of these two games, we would move it then, and we will. A loss would also drop the Buckeyes into a tie with Indiana in the loss column, though they hold the tiebreaker, and would leave UCLA alone in first. For USC, already out of our ranking, a third loss would end its playoff hopes two weeks before it goes to Indiana.

Miami 38, North Carolina 17. ESPN gives Miami an 89.8 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 18 points in Chapel Hill. SP+ makes it about 18 and a half. The line is 16.5. North Carolina is 4-3 and lost at home to Syracuse on Saturday, and CBS writes that it is fighting for bowl eligibility. Billy Edwards Jr. has played well at home this year, and Bill Belichick has won as a road underdog more than once. But Miami has scored at least 41 points in five games, Mensah and Toney are the best quarterback-receiver pair in the country, and North Carolina has not shown it can stop either. We think Miami wins comfortably and scores enough to get the game over the total. Miami wins and covers. Over.

What it means. Miami’s playoff spot does not depend on this game. ESPN’s point is that the Hurricanes would get in as ACC champions even if they lose at Notre Dame. What this game decides is whether Miami goes to South Bend unbeaten. A loss would put Miami in the loss column with SMU and Wake Forest, and it would make the November 7th game a playoff elimination game for both teams instead of a seeding game. That is two straight road games for Miami, and ESPN expects Notre Dame to be the last ranked team the Hurricanes see before the ACC title game.

That is six favorites straight up, three favorites and three underdogs against the number, and four unders.

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Quick Hits

Auburn 27, Georgia 24. We moved Georgia to No. 1 a week ago and wrote that the gap to Alabama was small. Both of them lost. Georgia led 14-0, then Auburn scored the next 24 points, and Alex McPherson kicked a 34-yard field goal as time expired. Byrum Brown ran for 115 yards on 26 carries and threw a touchdown pass, and Auburn outrushed Georgia 192-113. Gunner Stockton tied the game with a 94-yard drive in the fourth quarter, then lost a fumble at the Auburn 46 with 58 seconds left, and a roughing-the-passer penalty helped set up the winning kick. Stockton also threw two interceptions, doubling his season total. Georgia committed three personal fouls, played without KJ Bolden, and got 19 yards on nine carries from Nate Frazier in his return from a rib injury.

The loss ended Georgia’s 53-game winning streak against unranked teams. According to the AP, it was the first time since October 1990 that the No. 1 team lost in consecutive weeks, and ESPN notes that Texas and Georgia are the first No. 1 teams to lose on the final play in consecutive weeks. Auburn was a 20-point underdog.

BYU 28, Notre Dame 24. We said 12.5 points was a few too many at night in Provo and took BYU. We did not say BYU would win. Bear Bachmeier ran for two touchdowns, caught another and threw the winner, a 6-yard pass to Walker Lyons with 1:47 left. Notre Dame drove to the BYU 9 with four seconds left, and CJ Carr’s last pass fell incomplete in the end zone. The Irish also fumbled away a scoring chance at the BYU 5 before halftime when Carr lost the ball trying to spike it, only their second turnover of the season. According to the AP, Bachmeier is the first quarterback since Steve Young in the 1983 Holiday Bowl with a passing, rushing and receiving touchdown in the same game. It was BYU’s first win over Notre Dame since 2004 and its first over a top-10 team since 2018, and it came without LJ Martin.

Ohio State 19, Indiana 15. We picked Ohio State to win and Indiana to cover four points. Ohio State won by four. Julian Sayin hit Jeremiah Smith for a 38-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1 early in the fourth quarter for a 19-7 lead, then left with an injured right arm. Ryan Day says he will miss several weeks. Josh Hoover, back from an arm injury of his own, brought Indiana within four, and with 1:02 left he found Nick Marsh wide open at the front corner of the end zone. Marsh’s left foot came down on the white paint. The loss ended Indiana’s 22-game winning streak and was Curt Cignetti’s first home loss in three seasons. Indiana had lost no fumbles in 1,487 snaps since the start of 2025, and it lost two early in the third quarter. Freshman Luke Fahey finished the game for Ohio State and threw two incomplete passes.

Tennessee 26, Alabama 10. We had Alabama by 10. DeSean Bishop ran for 159 yards and two touchdowns, and Tennessee held Alabama to 201 yards, 54 of them on the ground, and 2 of 13 on third down. Alabama turned it over four times. Keelon Russell threw for 147 yards and two interceptions, and Ryan Coleman-Williams did not play. The Tide had 93 yards in the first half, and Tennessee’s last touchdown drive took 9:32 off the fourth-quarter clock. Alabama has lost consecutive regular-season games for the first time since 2007.

Florida 27, Texas 24. Last week we wrote that Texas had no loss left to give. It then lost at home to a Florida team starting its backup quarterback. Tramell Jones Jr., in for the injured Aaron Philo, threw two touchdown passes to Lacota Dippre, and Jadan Baugh’s 11-yard run gave Florida the lead in the fourth quarter. Texas had led 17-3 in the second quarter. Florida’s defense, last in the SEC coming in, held Texas under 300 yards and sacked Arch Manning five times, the last one forcing a fumble on the Longhorns’ final possession. Edge rusher Colin Simmons left in the fourth quarter with an apparent ankle injury. CBS notes that Texas is the first top-10 team since 2003 to blow a double-digit lead to an unranked opponent in consecutive weeks, and Steve Sarkisian said afterward that everything would be evaluated, including the play-calling. It was Florida’s first road win over a top-10 team since 2012, and CBS notes it ended Manning’s streak of 11 straight home wins as a starter.

Miami 43, Florida State 35, in double overtime. Miami is one of five unbeaten teams left in the power conferences, and it very nearly was not. Darian Mensah threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns, the last a 3-yarder to Malachi Toney in the second overtime. Toney caught 11 passes for 154 yards and threw the two-point conversion. Florida State had a 36-yard completion on fourth-and-21 called back for holding, and the game ended on Bryce Fitzgerald’s interception in the end zone, which held up on review. Mike Norvell disputed both calls. Mensah threw his first interception at Miami after 153 attempts without one.

LSU 31, Mississippi State 0. We held Mississippi State at 19 last week on the belief that Kamario Taylor was hurt, and wrote, “This is where we find out.” We found out. Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell did not play, Parker Puckett made his first start, and LSU shut the Bulldogs out. Mississippi State drove inside the LSU 40 five times and came away empty on fourth down every time. Sam Leavitt completed 31 of 38 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns, his first turnover-free game of the season, and it was LSU’s first shutout of an SEC opponent since 2007. Mississippi State has lost two straight, each by more than 30 points. ESPN’s view is that the game was too lopsided for Taylor’s absence to explain it. We took Mississippi State and the points and the over. Both were wrong.

Houston 35, Oklahoma State 32. Last week we wrote that the winner would have a case for our playoff table. Conner Weigman threw for 343 yards and five touchdowns, and Houston led 14-3 at halftime before the teams combined for 50 points in the second half. Oklahoma State got within three with 4:54 left, and Houston ran out the clock on an 18-yard catch by Trent Walker on third-and-7 and a Weigman run for a first down. Houston is 6-1, and its only loss is the failed two-point try at Texas Tech. We had Houston covering 3.5. It won by three.

Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13. Kentucky is tied with Georgia for the SEC lead. The Wildcats trailed 13-7 late in the third quarter before Ty Bryant’s first of two interceptions set up Kenny Minchey’s 12-yard touchdown pass to Willie Hernandez. Kentucky intercepted John Mateer three times and Oklahoma’s holder once, on a fake field goal that Jordan Castell picked off in the end zone. Castell’s 41-yard interception return sealed it. Kentucky gained 230 yards and won anyway, its fifth straight win under Will Stein.

Ole Miss 31, Missouri 3. Trinidad Chambliss threw three touchdown passes and ran for another, and Kewan Lacy ran for 122 yards and Makhi Frazier for 101. Missouri’s Jamal Roberts came in off two straight 200-yard games and ran for 39 yards on 20 carries, and the Tigers finished with 39 rushing yards as a team. Missouri had first-and-goal at the Ole Miss 2 and came away with nothing after Blake Craig missed a 23-yard field goal. Austin Simmons threw for 339 yards in his return to Oxford.

The rest of the ranked teams. UCLA beat Wisconsin 17-7 with Ty Dieffenbach throwing for 264 yards in his first start; Iamaleava did not play. Texas Tech led Arizona State 43-10 at halftime and won 53-25, with J’Koby Williams running for 165 yards on 11 carries. Utah, a 15-point favorite, held on 27-24 at Colorado. Oregon beat Nebraska 17-14 when Dylan Raiola came off the bench and threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to Jamari Johnson with 28 seconds left; Dante Moore is still out with a concussion. Wake Forest won 41-7 at Cal, SMU beat Virginia by 10 and Northwestern won 24-21 at Michigan State. North Carolina won 24-20 at Duke on Jaylen McGill’s 24-yard run with 1:53 left, and Pitt lost 27-21 at Boston College with true freshman Corey Dailey making his first start. New Mexico beat Hawaii 21-10, and James Madison beat Georgia State 49-22 to go to 7-0. Michigan benched Bryce Underwood for Tommy Carr and beat Penn State 21-18, and Penn State is 3-4 and 0-4 in the Big Ten. Iowa, USC and Boise State were off.

Power Rankings

Miami moves up two, to No. 1. The Hurricanes are 6-0 and the only one of last week’s top three that won. We are not moving them for how they played on Saturday, when a 3-4 Florida State team took them to a second overtime at home. We are moving them because the two teams ahead of them lost and Miami did not. ESPN’s committee projection also has Miami first, while pointing out that it still lacks a statement win. Its best wins are at Wake Forest and at Clemson, and FPI gives it a 94.8 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, the highest in the country. Miami goes to Notre Dame on November 7th.

Ohio State holds at No. 2. The Buckeyes won at a top-five team, and FPI and SP+ both now rate them first in the country. The question is Sayin. We are not moving Ohio State down for an injury to a quarterback who is expected back in weeks, but it makes the next two games, at USC on October 31st and at home against Oregon on November 7th, harder than they looked a week ago. If the Buckeyes lose one of them, we will move them then. Fahey, a freshman, was 9 of 11 for 203 yards and two touchdowns in mop-up time against Ball State and Kent State. CBS points out that Ohio State’s defense is allowing 13.4 points a game, which is the best argument that it can win with a game manager at quarterback. Both FPI and CBS’s projections give Ohio State about a 90 percent chance of making the playoff.

BYU moves up six. BYU beat Notre Dame without its leading rusher, and ESPN calls it the best win of any team in its top five. We move the Cougars past Georgia, who lost at home to an unranked team, and past Notre Dame, whom they just beat. We keep them behind Ohio State, which won at a top-five team on the road and which both models rate first; FPI has BYU 14th and SP+ ninth. SP+’s résumé ranking agrees with our order at the top, with BYU sixth, one spot behind Ohio State and two ahead of Georgia. BYU stays ahead of Utah, as we said it would, until they play on November 7th.

Georgia drops three. A home loss to a 4-2 Auburn team that was a 20-point underdog is a worse loss than any team above Georgia has. We keep the Bulldogs ahead of Notre Dame because they have two wins that still hold up, 41-13 over the Oklahoma team that beat Texas and at Alabama, and because FPI still rates them third and SP+ second. Georgia has an off week, then plays Florida, goes to Ole Miss and hosts Missouri.

Notre Dame drops one. Losing on the final play, on the road, to an unbeaten top-10 team is the kind of loss the committee forgives, and ESPN calls it a good loss in that room. It costs one spot. The problem for the Irish is what is left to make up for it. They have no conference title game, and ESPN notes their only wins over power-conference teams with winning records are Wisconsin and at North Carolina. Miami comes to South Bend on November 7th.

Texas Tech moves up two. The Red Raiders are 6-0 and led Arizona State 43-10 at halftime, and the AP notes they are 18-2 since the start of last season. They move past Indiana, which lost. SP+ moved them up three spots, to seventh. ESPN still has them 12th in its committee projection, and bumped out of its bracket by Boise State, because their best win is Houston and Will Hammond has six touchdown passes and five interceptions. We have them sixth because they have not lost and because Saturday was the first time all year they looked like the reigning Big 12 champion.

Utah moves up two. Utah won 27-24 at a 2-4 Colorado team as a 15-point favorite. That does not earn a move on its own; the Utes move because Georgia, Alabama and Texas fell past them. The AP notes that Utah’s 12 straight wins are now the longest active streak in the country. ESPN notes that it has not beaten a team with a winning record, and SP+ dropped the Utes three spots to 10th and has their schedule 116th of 138. Houston, on Saturday, is the first chance.

UCLA moves up two. The Bruins are 6-0 and the last unbeaten team in the Big Ten or SEC, and they won on Saturday with their backup quarterback. Dieffenbach completed 22 of 33 passes, and UCLA held Wisconsin to 66 passing yards. We keep them behind Utah because they have not scored more than 17 points in either of their last two games, which ESPN also flags. SP+ is split on them: it rates them 19th, but its résumé ranking has them fourth. Michigan State, Nevada, Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan come before USC.

Ole Miss moves up two. The Rebels beat a team ranked 13th by 28 points and ran for 257 yards. ESPN’s committee projection has them seventh, with wins over LSU and Missouri that it calls statement wins. The 24-point loss at Florida is still on the résumé, and Ole Miss still has Texas, Georgia, Auburn and Oklahoma to play.

Tennessee moves up three. The Vols held Alabama scoreless for three quarters, forced four turnovers and won by 16. Their only loss is to Texas, and they have won three straight. ESPN notes that their schedule otherwise has been thin, with wins over an FCS team and a 1-5 Kennesaw State. Kentucky comes to Knoxville on November 7th.

Why Tennessee is ahead of Texas. Texas beat Tennessee in Knoxville, and we have Tennessee six spots ahead. That game was close, and Texas nearly lost it. Since then Texas has lost to Oklahoma and Florida, and Tennessee has won three straight, including Saturday’s 16-point win over Alabama. Tennessee is 6-1, and its one loss is to Texas. Texas is 4-2. The committee uses head-to-head results to separate teams with comparable records, and ESPN’s view this week is that two losses against one no longer qualifies. We are ranking the better team today, and we think that is Tennessee.

Alabama drops seven. Two straight losses, the second by 16 with 201 yards of offense and four turnovers. Both losses are to top-11 teams in our ranking, and the Tide stay ahead of Kentucky because they beat the Wildcats by 28 in Lexington. A margin that large outweighs the one game between them in the standings. The win by 33 at Mississippi State also still stands. FPI still rates Alabama sixth and gives it a 49.4 percent chance of making the playoff, and SP+, which dropped it four spots, has it 12th with the eighth-hardest schedule in the country. Texas A&M comes to Tuscaloosa on Saturday.

Kentucky moves up three. The Wildcats won at Oklahoma and are tied with Georgia for the SEC lead at 4-1. They have won five straight, three of them on the road in the league, and ESPN’s committee projection has them ninth on schedule strength. They are 13th here, one spot behind Alabama, because Alabama beat them 45-17 in Lexington and because their last three wins came by one, one and eight points. SP+ rates them 45th and Alabama 12th. Vanderbilt is next.

Houston enters at 14. The Cougars are 6-1, have won four straight and beat a ranked team for the first time this season. Their loss is by a failed two-point conversion at Texas Tech. We put them behind Alabama because their best wins, Oklahoma State and at Kansas State, are not as good as Alabama’s. SP+ rates them 18th. They go to Utah on Saturday.

Texas drops 11. That matches the biggest drop we have made this season. The Longhorns have lost two straight to unranked teams, and the problem is the one we have written about all year. CBS has Texas at 3.66 yards a carry coming into Saturday, 117th in the country, with the worst three-and-out rate in the SEC, and the AP wrote that Manning has struggled for four straight games. We do not drop them further because they still have the two best wins of any two-loss team, over Ohio State and at Tennessee, and because FPI still rates them seventh and SP+ eighth, with the second-hardest schedule in the country. Ole Miss comes to Austin on Saturday.

Why Ohio State stays ahead of Texas. We explained this last week and said the order would change if Ohio State lost at Indiana. It did not, and Texas lost again. Ohio State is 6-1 and Texas is 4-2. ESPN’s committee projection makes the same point we did: with Texas at two losses, the committee would no longer use the head-to-head to break a tie, because the records are no longer comparable.

Wake Forest enters at 19. The Demon Deacons are 6-1, their only loss is to Miami, and they won 41-7 at Cal. FPI rates them 16th, SP+ moved them up 15 spots to 20th, and FPI gives them a 40.0 percent chance of making the playoff, mostly as the likely ACC runner-up. They are off this week.

Boise State enters at 20. The Broncos were off. They come in because Missouri lost by 28 and falls out, and because FPI rates Boise about even with Missouri on a neutral field, 30th to 27th. Boise has one loss, by seven at Oregon, and has won five straight, including at Fresno State and by 25 over Western Michigan, the MAC favorite. Missouri has the better win, over Florida, and that made this close. The two SP+ numbers split the same way we did: SP+ rates Missouri about four points better, but its résumé ranking has Boise 19th and Missouri 34th. It goes to Washington State on Saturday.

Missouri, Mississippi State and Nebraska leave the ranking. Missouri lost 31-3 at Ole Miss and ran for 39 yards, and it now has two losses to Boise State’s one. Mississippi State has lost its last two by a combined 64 points, and we are no longer willing to rank the Bulldogs on the strength of a quarterback who has not played. Nebraska has lost two straight after leading in the fourth quarter of both.

Indiana holds at seven after a four-point loss to the No. 2 team: Texas Tech passed it, but Alabama and Texas fell from above it to below it. Iowa holds at 15 and USC moves up one to 16; both were off. LSU holds at 18 after its shutout. Texas dropped in above it, and both of LSU’s losses are to teams ahead of it here, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Missouri is the first team out, ahead of Florida, which it beat by 28. Florida has wins over Texas and Ole Miss, but it also lost by 19 to South Carolina before Saturday. It is off this week, then plays Georgia in Atlanta, and CBS points out that after that it has Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State, a path to 10 wins. Oregon, SMU, Northwestern and James Madison are the rest of the next group.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 7 AP poll has BYU first, then Miami, Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana, Ole Miss and Texas Tech. It has UCLA ninth, Tennessee 10th, Utah 11th and Alabama 12th, brings Florida back in at 18 and drops Texas to 19. It also projects Oregon back in at 25 and drops Mississippi State and Oklahoma State. The real poll was not out at press time.

The real post-Week 6 AP poll did come out after we published last week, and it differed from the CBS projection we used on our board. The AP had Ohio State fourth and Texas seventh, the order we argued for, where the projection had Texas fourth and Ohio State fifth. It also had Indiana fifth, Alabama sixth, Mississippi State 16th and LSU 22nd. Our board used the projection’s rankings, labeled as such.

ESPN’s committee projection goes Miami, Ohio State, BYU, Notre Dame, Indiana, Georgia, Ole Miss, UCLA, Kentucky, Tennessee, Utah and Texas Tech, with Boise State taking Texas Tech’s bracket spot as the top Group of Six team. Its byes go to Miami, Ohio State, BYU and Notre Dame. The first real committee ranking comes out November 3rd.

CBS’s bowl projection seeds Miami, Georgia, Ohio State and BYU in the top four, then Indiana, Tennessee, Ole Miss, UCLA, Alabama, Kentucky and Notre Dame, with Oregon State in the 12th spot as the top Group of Six team. That makes three outside projections with three different Group of Six teams: ESPN has Boise State, CBS has Oregon State, and FPI’s playoff odds now favor James Madison. CBS also has Alabama in its field and Texas Tech out of it, and it has Notre Dame 11th. None of the three outside projections has Texas in its twelve.

We differ from ESPN and the poll projection in three places. We have Georgia fourth, ahead of Notre Dame and Indiana, where ESPN has the Bulldogs sixth; we give more weight to the win in Tuscaloosa than ESPN does, and CBS’s bowl projection goes further than we do and seeds Georgia second. We have Texas Tech sixth and in our twelve, where ESPN has it 12th and out of the bracket, for the second straight week. And we have Tennessee ahead of Kentucky, where ESPN has Kentucky ahead on schedule strength.

FPI’s October 18th run has Ohio State first, then Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Indiana, Alabama and Texas. That is our top seven with BYU and Texas Tech swapped out for Alabama and Texas. FPI has LSU eighth, Texas Tech ninth and Oregon 10th, and it is lower than us on the three teams that have won the most this year without being highly rated: BYU 14th, Kentucky 26th and UCLA 31st. As we said last week, FPI is a rating of how good a team is likely to be from here, and we give more weight to the results a team already has.

SP+’s October 18th run also has Ohio State first, then Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame and Indiana, and it is closer to FPI than to us. It has LSU sixth, Texas Tech seventh, Texas eighth, BYU ninth and Utah 10th, and it dropped Alabama four spots to 12th. It moved Wake Forest up 15 spots to 20th and James Madison up 12 to 28th. It is well below us on Kentucky, at 45th, and on UCLA, at 19th. It has Missouri 21st and Boise State 37th, the opposite of our order at No. 20, and for a third straight week it rates Nebraska, at 16th, higher than we do. Its résumé ranking, which grades what each team has done against its schedule, goes Miami, Notre Dame, Utah, UCLA, Ohio State, BYU, Texas Tech, Georgia, Indiana and Tennessee, with James Madison 11th and Boise State 19th. It has Texas’s schedule second-hardest in the country and Alabama’s eighth.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, and the Change column is against August. The week-over-week moves are large. Alabama and Texas each lose 24 points, matching the biggest cut we have made this season. Alabama falls to 50 with two losses and Georgia holding the tiebreaker over it, and Texas falls to 40 with Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play. ESPN points out that a year ago Alabama made the field with three losses and Texas missed it at 9-3, which is about where each of them stands now. CBS’s projections give Texas a 43 percent chance of making the field, and FPI 41.2. CBS had Texas in its bowl projection a week ago and has it out now.

BYU gains 24 points, to 66, for what ESPN calls the best win of any team in its top five. Tennessee gains 20, to 44, for beating Alabama by 16. Ole Miss and Kentucky each gain 14 and UCLA gains 12, all three for winning on a day when the teams above them lost. Texas Tech gains eight, LSU six, and Miami and Ohio State four apiece. Ohio State’s gain would have been larger with Sayin healthy. Utah gains two for a win that was closer than it should have been.

Georgia and Notre Dame each give back 12. Georgia’s loss was at home to an unranked team, but it still holds the tiebreaker over Alabama and has Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri left to make up for it. Notre Dame has no conference title game to fall back on and has Miami still to play. Indiana gives back four, the same Alabama gave back a week ago for a close loss to a top-two team. Missouri loses 14 and falls into the field.

Houston joins the table at 24, as we said the winner of its game would, and Wake Forest joins at 18. Missouri, Nebraska and Mississippi State fall into the field. The field drops from 1.80 to 1.54, because Houston and Wake Forest left it for the table and because Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Pitt all lost. It now holds Oregon, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Northwestern, Wisconsin, SMU and Pitt. The Group of Six holds at 1.12. Boise State is 20th in our ranking now, but its chance stays in that line rather than getting a row of its own, so the line can still be compared with August. The next section explains how the line divides.

The Group of Six Race

One playoff spot goes to the highest-ranked conference champion outside the power conferences, and it no longer has a clear favorite. ESPN’s committee projection gives it to Boise State, CBS’s bowl projection gives it to Oregon State, and FPI’s playoff odds now favor James Madison. Here is how the candidates compare.

Records against ranked teams count teams ranked when the game was played. FPI and SP+ ranks are from each system’s October 18th run, résumé SP+ grades what each team has done against its schedule, and each playoff number is FPI’s estimate of that team’s chance of making the 12-team field.

Who is best. The models disagree. FPI rates Boise State about four points better than James Madison or New Mexico on a neutral field. SP+ goes the other way, with James Madison 28th, New Mexico 30th and Boise 37th, about three points behind the Dukes, and résumé SP+ has James Madison 11th and Boise 19th. We have Boise in our twenty because its only loss was by seven at Oregon and because it has the best wins in the group, by 25 over Western Michigan and at Fresno State. It is closer than one system alone would suggest. UTSA is not close in either: 77th in FPI and 69th in SP+.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. James Madison, narrowly, and only because of its record. The Dukes are 7-0, FPI gives them a 39.4 percent chance of winning out to Boise’s 30.8, and the committee rewards an unbeaten champion. The case against them is the schedule. They have not played a ranked team, SP+ has their schedule 127th of 138, and the next Sun Belt team in FPI is 76th.

Who else. New Mexico is 5-1, its only loss is 14-6 at Oklahoma, and it hosts North Dakota State on Saturday night in the Mountain West’s biggest game. Oregon State leads the Pac-12 at 3-0 and is the team CBS projects into the field, but it has two losses and FPI gives it a 3.0 percent chance. UTSA leads the American at 3-0 and is 6-1, but FPI rates it 77th, and it would need the teams above it to lose. Liberty is 2-0 in Conference USA, behind Jacksonville State at 3-0, and is 64th in FPI, though it has a 67.6 percent chance of winning the league.

We put Boise State’s share of our 1.12 at about 36 percent and James Madison’s a little higher, with the rest spread among New Mexico, Oregon State, UTSA and the others. This week James Madison plays at App State on Thursday, Boise goes to Washington State, UTSA goes to Tulane, and New Mexico hosts North Dakota State.

Conference Projections

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of winning its conference.

ACC. Miami 73, Wake Forest 11 (up 2), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 2 (down 1), Duke 1 (down 2), field 3 (up 1). Miami won and holds; nothing about a double-overtime win over a 3-4 team argues for raising it. Wake Forest moves up after its 34-point win at Cal. Duke has lost two straight, to Georgia Tech and now North Carolina, both on touchdowns inside the last two minutes, and ESPN calls the defending champions just another mediocre ACC team. Pitt lost at Boston College, its second straight loss since Mason Heintschel’s injury. North Carolina, now 2-1 in the league, is why the field grows. FPI has Miami at 79.6 percent and Wake Forest at 13.7.

SEC. Georgia 40 (down 6), Ole Miss 13 (up 8), Tennessee 12 (up 10), Kentucky 10 (up 7), Alabama 9 (down 11), LSU 5 (up 3), Texas 4 (down 10), Missouri 2 (down 2), Florida 2 (new), field 3 (up 1). Oklahoma and Mississippi State fall into the field with Texas A&M and Auburn. Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss each have one league loss, and Georgia’s tiebreaker over Alabama matters less now that Alabama has two. Kentucky’s number trails Tennessee’s and Ole Miss’s because it still goes to Knoxville and has Florida and Missouri left. Texas is 1-2 in the league. FPI has Georgia at 45.4 percent, Alabama at 12.7, Tennessee at 10.3 and Ole Miss at 9.9.

Big Ten. Ohio State 50 (up 8), Indiana 22 (down 12), UCLA 12 (up 6), Iowa 5, Oregon 4 (up 1), USC 3, Wisconsin 1 (down 2), Nebraska 1 (down 1), field 2. Ohio State is 4-0 and holds the tiebreaker over Indiana. The race is no longer just two teams. UCLA is also 4-0, and its remaining schedule does not include Ohio State or Indiana. FPI has Ohio State at 57.9 percent, Indiana at 28.2, Oregon at 5.3 and UCLA at 4.3.

Big 12. Texas Tech 31 (up 1), BYU 27 (up 3), Utah 27, Houston 8 (up 1), Arizona 2, Baylor 2, Oklahoma State 1 (down 4), field 2 (down 1). BYU moves up because Saturday was the best evidence yet of how good it is, though the result does not count in the standings. Utah won and holds. Oklahoma State took its first league loss, and the field shrinks because Arizona State, part of it, lost by 28 in Lubbock. FPI has Texas Tech at 38.1 percent, BYU at 27.2, Utah at 21.6 and Houston at 8.5.

Pac-12. Boise State 64, Oregon State 20, Fresno State 7, Washington State 4, Texas State 2, San Diego State 1, Utah State 1, Colorado State 1. No changes. Boise State was off and goes to Washington State on Saturday. FPI has Boise at 65.1 percent and Oregon State at 29.5.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a seventh week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC, the Pac-12, the American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and the MAC. FPI still has ten SEC teams in its top 25, with seven from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and three from the ACC, the same split as a week ago. SP+ counts it differently again, with eight from the Big Ten, seven from the SEC, five from the Big 12 and four from the ACC. We keep the SEC first because of FPI’s ten-to-seven edge and because the SEC has three of SP+’s top eight teams to the Big Ten’s two.

The SEC has no unbeaten teams left. ESPN counted six SEC games on Saturday with at least one ranked team, and in four of them the lower-ranked team won. Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss each have one league loss, and Alabama and Texas both have two losses overall after being national title contenders two weeks ago. Arkansas beat Vanderbilt 31-21 for its first SEC win. CBS projected five SEC teams in the playoff before the weekend, and ESPN has four in its twelve now. Georgia is off this week. Ole Miss goes to Texas, Tennessee to South Carolina and LSU to Auburn, and Kentucky hosts Vanderbilt.

The Big Ten has one unbeaten team, and it is UCLA. Ohio State has the tiebreaker over Indiana and the bye week it needs to plan for Fahey, then goes to USC on Halloween. USC plays at Wisconsin on Saturday before facing Ohio State and Indiana in back-to-back weeks, so its season gets decided in the next month. Indiana goes to Michigan, which benched Bryce Underwood for Tommy Carr in a 21-18 win over Penn State. Penn State is 3-4 and 0-4 in the league under Matt Campbell. Oregon is 2-1 in the league after winning with its third-string starter and Raiola off the bench. Nebraska has blown fourth-quarter leads in back-to-back weeks. At the bottom, Rutgers beat Maryland 37-30, and CBS notes Mike Locksley is now 2-20 in Big Ten games since 2024.

The Big 12 still has three unbeaten teams, all of them 3-0 in the league, and ESPN’s committee projection has all three in its twelve. Texas Tech goes to Cincinnati, and Utah hosts Houston, which has one league loss and cannot afford a second. BYU goes to UCF. Texas Tech does not play BYU or Utah, so the league’s best path to two bids is a one-loss runner-up. Arizona State, which won the league two years ago, has lost consecutive Big 12 games by more than five touchdowns. Oklahoma State is 2-1 and hosts Colorado, and it still gets Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th.

The ACC has one unbeaten team in Miami and one serious challenger in Wake Forest, which is off this week. Duke, the defending champion, has lost two straight. North Carolina is 4-2 under Bill Belichick and has won as a road underdog in back-to-back weeks. Florida State is 3-4 and the AP notes it is 10-22 in its last 32 games under Mike Norvell. SMU is 5-1 and hosts Cal. Pitt lost 27-21 at a Boston College team that came in 2-3, with Corey Dailey, a true freshman, making his first start, and the Panthers were flagged 13 times for 133 yards. Miami hosts Pitt on Saturday, then goes to North Carolina on October 31st.

The Pac-12 is still the best of the group. Its average team rates higher in FPI than any league below it, and FPI has Boise State 30th and Oregon State 49th, the only league in the group with two teams in the top 50. Its average also leads in SP+. Its median team now rates slightly better than the American’s in FPI, which was the other way around a week ago, but SP+ still has the American’s median ahead. SP+ is also cooler on the top of the league, with Boise 37th and Oregon State 39th, both behind James Madison and New Mexico. Two of its eight teams are below 100th. Oregon State leads the standings at 3-0, with Boise State at 2-0. The change this week is at the top of the Group of Six. FPI now gives James Madison a better chance of making the playoff than Boise State, though ESPN’s committee projection still has Boise as the top Group of Six team. Boise goes to Washington State on Saturday.

The American still has no team in FPI’s top 50, and it got less deep this week. Five of its 14 teams are now below 100th, up from three. UTSA leads the standings at 3-0 and is 6-1 overall, and FPI gives the Roadrunners a 3.9 percent chance of making the playoff, the best in the league. FPI still makes North Texas, which is 2-0 in the league, the favorite to win it, at 31.2 percent, with UTSA and Memphis at 20.1 each and Army at 15.8. Memphis is 5-2, 57th in FPI and 51st in SP+, the highest-rated team in the league in both, and it hosts East Carolina on Thursday. UTSA goes to Tulane on Saturday.

The Mountain West has New Mexico, 5-1 and 43rd in FPI, with a 63.1 percent chance of winning the league after a 21-10 win at Hawaii. SP+ has New Mexico 30th and North Dakota State 35th, the best pair in any Group of Six league. North Dakota State is 6-1 and goes to New Mexico on Saturday night in the game most likely to decide the league. Air Force is the new contender. After losing to North Dakota State early in the season, it has won four straight, including 41-31 over UNLV, which was the Rebels’ first league loss. Half of the league’s ten teams are below 100th.

The Sun Belt is James Madison, which beat Georgia State 49-22 to go to 7-0 and is now FPI’s best Group of Six playoff candidate. SP+ moved them up 12 spots to 28th, the highest of any Group of Six team, and its résumé ranking has them 11th. FPI gives the Dukes a 73.8 percent chance of winning the league and a 44.3 percent chance of making the playoff. They play at App State on Thursday night. They have also yet to play a ranked opponent. The rest of the league is the problem for them. The next Sun Belt team in FPI is Louisiana, at 76th, and half the league is below 100th.

The MAC is still last by a wide margin. Its best team in FPI is Western Michigan at 81st, and its best in SP+ is Toledo at 65th, and 10 of its 13 teams are below 100th. Western Michigan is 5-2 and 3-0 in the league, with a 47.9 percent chance of winning it, and it goes to Toledo, which is 5-2 and 2-1, on Saturday. Ohio is the only other team unbeaten in league play, and it does not play Western Michigan. No MAC team has as much as a 1 percent chance of making the playoff.

The Week 8 Board

All times Eastern. All games are Saturday, October 24th. Kickoff times and networks are from CBS’s schedule, and three of the four were still to be announced. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, and percentages are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor; each percentage is the favorite’s chance of winning. No line had been posted for Houston at Utah when we went to press. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 7 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. The market and the Match-Up Predictor have the same favorite in all three games with a line. The biggest gap in degree is in Austin, where ESPN gives Texas a 71.1 percent chance of winning a game the market makes a three-point spread.

Predictions

Miami 34, Pittsburgh 13. ESPN gives Miami a 92.4 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make the gap about 20 points at Hard Rock Stadium. SP+ makes it about 18. The line is 23.5. Miami is the better team by a lot, but it just gave up 35 points and 298 passing yards to a Florida State team that is 3-4. Pitt has lost two straight since Mason Heintschel’s season-ending injury, to North Carolina and at Boston College, and started a true freshman, Corey Dailey, in the second of them. Dailey completed 11 of 25 passes with two interceptions, and Pitt was flagged 13 times. We think Miami wins comfortably and does not quite get to 24. Miami wins, Pittsburgh covers. Under.

What it means. Miami’s playoff case does not rest on this game, but its seeding might. ESPN’s point is that Miami would still make the field even with a loss at Notre Dame on November 7th, because an ACC title would get it in. A loss to Pitt would use up that margin before November, and it would put Miami in the loss column with Wake Forest, the team ESPN expects it to see again in the ACC title game. For Pitt, a third straight loss ends its ACC hopes.

BYU 27, UCF 17. ESPN gives BYU a 70.7 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 10 points in Orlando. SP+ makes it about 14, and it has BYU’s defense ninth in the country against a UCF offense it ranks 81st. The line is 7.5. The obvious worry is a letdown, a week after the biggest win of the season and on the road across the country. But UCF is 3-3 and 51st in FPI. Bachmeier is playing as well as any quarterback in the country, and LJ Martin’s status is worth watching. We think BYU wins by double digits in a lower-scoring game than the total suggests. BYU wins and covers. Under.

What it means. BYU’s playoff case is now built on the Notre Dame win, and a loss to a 3-3 team would take much of the shine off it before the first committee ranking on November 3rd. The bigger stakes are in the Big 12. BYU and Utah play on November 7th, and the league’s best chance at two playoff bids is for one of them to be a one-loss runner-up. BYU at 7-0 going into Salt Lake City keeps that possible.

Utah 28, Houston 24. ESPN gives Utah a 67.1 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about five points at Rice-Eccles Stadium. SP+ makes it about seven and a half. No line had been posted when we went to press. Utah has scored a touchdown on its opening drive in every game and has outscored opponents 75-3 in the first quarter, which matters because Houston’s offense is at its best once it gets going. Houston’s offense is the best Utah will have seen. Weigman threw for 343 yards against Oklahoma State, and Houston had 505 yards. We think Utah’s start and its home field are the difference. Utah wins.

What it means. Houston already has one league loss, and a second would leave it needing two of the three unbeaten teams to lose twice. A Houston win would put the Cougars level with Utah in the loss column and give them the best win in the Big 12 race so far. For Utah, this is the first chance to beat a team with a winning record, which ESPN says is the biggest hole in its résumé. Winning it would make November 7th against BYU a game between two unbeaten teams for a place in the Big 12 title game.

Texas 27, Ole Miss 20. ESPN gives Texas a 71.1 percent chance of winning, the line is Texas by three, and FPI’s ratings make it about seven in Austin. SP+ makes it about six and a half. We rank Ole Miss seven spots ahead of Texas, and the Rebels have the better season. This pick is about one game in Austin, and both models think Texas wins it. Texas’s problem all year has been its offense. It came into Saturday averaging 3.66 yards a carry, 117th in the country, and Florida, the worst defense in the SEC, sacked Arch Manning five times. But the defense is still the strength of the team, fifth in the country in SP+, and Ole Miss’s defense is 42nd and allows 23.8 points a game, the most of the three one-loss teams ESPN grouped together in its projection. That is the matchup Texas’s offense has been waiting for. The worry is Colin Simmons, Texas’s best pass rusher, who left the Florida game with an ankle injury. Ole Miss just ran for 257 yards against Missouri, and without Simmons, Texas will have a harder time keeping Trinidad Chambliss in the pocket. We think Texas wins a lower-scoring game than the total suggests. Texas wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Texas cannot lose a third game and stay in the playoff conversation. It would be 4-3 and 1-3 in the SEC with Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play, and ESPN already describes Texas as on the brink. A Texas win would give it a third win over a team in our top 11 and put it back in the debate with the other two-loss teams. For Ole Miss, a second loss would let the committee revisit its head-to-head loss to Florida, which ESPN points out could become the tiebreaker between two two-loss teams. A win would put Ole Miss at 6-1 and 4-1 in the league going into Georgia’s visit on November 7th.

That game also matters to the SEC race. Ole Miss is one of four teams with one league loss, and Texas is 1-2. A Texas win would leave three one-loss teams, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky, and would make Kentucky’s trip to Knoxville on November 7th a game for first place.

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The SEC is Eating its Own

While the playoff will determine the champion, which has been the domain of the Big Ten each of the previous three seasons, it is safe to say that the SEC is the top-to-bottom class of the sport right now. A whopping nine teams are currently ranked among the Top 30 of Bill Connelly’s SP+. Throw in that the conference went to a 9-game schedule this season and the outcome is obvious; they’re beating each other up. 

Let’s start with the Red River Reckoning [Rivalry]. It was certainly a rough afternoon for Arch Manning (two 4th Qtr interceptions, one returned for a TD). But to lose to an Oklahoma offense that averaged just 4.2 yards per play and was just 2-of-13 on 3rd downs took a team effort, including a blocked punt the Sooners returned for a TD. And while the Sooners offense didn’t do much, credit to QB John Mateer, who appeared to be on his way to the bench, for managing the game while completing passes of 13 and 20 yards to set up the game-winning FG as time expired. The Sooners still have little chance at making the playoff, but there are at least signs of life.

The SEC’s main course of Georgia at Alabama had a little of everything. Starting with a hurricane that passed by Tuscaloosa early in the day and forced ESPN’s College GameDay into a gymnasium. But the game went on as scheduled and was one of those old-fashioned SEC slugfests. Despite being without their top two running backs the Dawgs managed 206 yards rushing, while Gunnar Stockton was a very efficient 18/22, 249 yards (11.3 yards per attempt) as Georgia went 7/13 on 3rd down. Alabama moved the ball, but also struggled to get into scoring range due to mistakes and negative plays. That said, perhaps the biggest mistake of the game did not belong to either team but to the officials, who did not call what appeared to be an obvious defensive pass interference on Georgia DB KJ Bolden in the end zone late in the 4th Quarter. Had the call been made it would have put the Tide in FG range to tie and kept a potential go-ahead TD drive going. Instead Alabama took a sack on the next play and had to punt, and Georgia was able to run out the clock.

A Big Shift in the Big Ten?

UCLA continued its rise among the college football ranks by going to Oregon and leaving with an improbable 17-15 win. As the score suggests, this was not only a game dominated by defense, but was ugly for the offenses, and that’s probably an understatement. The game featured 10 turnovers, seven of them by Oregon. That’s not to say it was a banner day for the Bruins either, as they were penalized 9 times and were just 4-of-16 on third down. It was also not a good day for either quarterback who started this game. Bruins QB Nico Iamaleava threw 2 interceptions to no touchdowns, and appeared to suffer a lower leg injury in the 2nd Quarter that led to him not returning for the second half. His replacement, Ty Dieffenbach, was not asked to do much, and thanks to just enough production from RB Wayne Knight he didn’t have to. Dylan Raiola got the start for the Ducks for Dante Moore, who is still recovering from a concussion suffered during the game at USC. Raiola filled in masterfully for Moore that day. But this day was much, much different. Raiola was under pressure constantly and went just 6/19, 43 yards, 2 picks plus a fumble lost before being benched after 3 quarters for 3rd-string QB Brock Thomas. Thomas did reasonably well, leading the Ducks to a TD drive with 2:16 left, but Oregon could not convert the 2-point attempt, and that was the difference.

The unbeaten Bruins have all the look of the 2024 Indiana Hoosiers who went 11-1 and made the CFP, complete with their own ex-James Madison head coach. While their remaining schedule appears to set up well, they will have to manage without Iamaleava this weekend against 4-1 Wisconsin at the Rose Bowl. The Ducks meanwhile are facing the longest of odds to return to the CFP. Moore is still out this Saturday against a 5-1 Nebraska team that nearly knocked off Indiana last Saturday. And even if Oregon does get by the next several games, a Nov. 7 trip to Columbus looms, and it’s almost impossible to envision a playoff path for an Oregon team with 3 losses.

My Top 10

1. Georgia — Yes, they certainly benefitted from a controversial no-call late in the game at Alabama, but also showed me enough to prove they are legit and deserve to be atop the perch

2. Ohio State — They didn’t just survive a trip to Kinnick, they controlled the game against a team whose hallmark is dictating the style of play to their opponent. Another big test awaits Saturday

3. Notre Dame — The Irish will finally face playoff worthy competition Saturday

4. Alabama — Costly officiating error aside, the Tide can point to several plays-not-made of their own that cost them. Still, they proved they are a serious title contender

5. Miami — That close win at Wake Forest is aging better, but the ‘Canes can’t afford to get caught looking ahead to Nov. 7 in South Bend  

6. Indiana — After a couple of close calls against Northwestern and Nebraska, the nation’s longest winning streak is on the line in what may be the biggest home game in IU history

7. Texas — Steve Sarkisian makes a fair point; Arch’s lineage put expectations on his back that any college QB would struggle to meet. But he has to be much better than Saturday for the ‘Horns to have any shot

8. BYU — Saturday’s game against Notre Dame replaced the Irish’s traditional game against USC, and this is one time I don’t mind seeing a rivalry interrupted

9.  Ole Miss — Now that the aftertaste of that letdown at Florida is gone, time to get back to work with a better-than-I-thought Missouri team coming to Oxford

10. Texas Tech — They appear to have a pretty manageable path to Arlington for the Big 12 title game

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana — Noon ET, FOX

Line: Ohio State -3.5, O/U 50.5

The defending national champion, owner of a 22-game winning streak, is an underdog at home. Disrespectful? Maybe. But with Jeremiah Smith and the SP+ No. 1 offense coming to town, it shouldn’t be a surprise. This will be the first real look for many at the current Hoosiers team, which has had much turnover from the one that knocked off Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game last season.

While Indiana’s defense just may be good enough to slow down Smith & Co., the Hoosier offense is a concern. The headline numbers look solid, but an under-the-hood view shows some of those numbers were padded against the likes of Howard and Western Kentucky, and against tougher opponents like Northwestern and Nebraska their ability to stay on schedule running the ball on early downs has led to middling results on 3rd Down. That won’t succeed against the Buckeyes. But as always under Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers won’t beat themselves — they have just one turnover all season and are 4th in FBS in fewest penalties accepted. OSU has its work cut out for it, and this should be a tight game, but defense travels well and the Buckeyes have an elite one.

Ohio State win/Indiana cover

No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 LSU — Noon ET, ESPN

Line: LSU -15.5, O/U 57.5

There’s been a significant line shift, 3 points, towards LSU due to the questionable status of MSU quarterback Kamario Taylor, who left the game against Alabama in the 3rd Quarter with a lower leg injury. If Taylor can’t go, +15.5 may not be enough, as the Bulldogs just don’t have a defense they can lean on (98th in the country in EPA allowed per pass and give up 28.0 points per game — tied for 108th). Despite Sam Leavitt’s 8 interceptions thus far, he should have big numbers in this game. Even if Taylor plays, he may well be limited physically, so I’ll take LSU even laying over two TDs.

LSU win/cover

No. 6 Alabama at No. 14 Tennessee — 3:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Alabama -7.5, O/U 50.5

Fresh off its first loss of the season, the Tide head to Knoxville to face a Tennessee team that’s won five of six. Hitting the road after an emotional loss, against a quality SEC opponent, is the kind of trap Alabama must avoid if it wants to stay in the playoff conversation.

The efficiency numbers favor Alabama’s offense heavily. The Crimson Tide are 16th in adjusted EPA per play and 4th in success rate, and have dropped 45 or more points on everyone but Georgia. The Vols’ offense is the mirror image — 121st in EPA per pass and 126th in pass play success rate, and have an unsettled quarterback situation — George MacIntyre replaced injured Faizon Brandon during the Texas loss, and it has yet to be determined who will start Saturday. The offense goes through RB DeSean Bishop, who has 678 rushing yards and ranks second nationally in EPA per rush. Tennessee’s best asset is a defense that is 32nd in adjusted EPA per play and 14th in EPA per pass.

Even with their defense, Tennessee will have to score in the high 20s to keep this close, and a team with the 121st-ranked passing offense and an injured starting quarterback, and a backup who has mostly been ineffective, will struggle to do that against a top-10 defense. If Bishop can’t carry the whole load, Alabama’s offense, which averages 44.2 points per game, only needs a few explosive plays against Tennessee’s secondary. Even with Tide WR Ryan Coleman-Williams out, I think they will get the big plays they need.

Alabama win/cover

No. 13 Missouri at No. 9 Ole Miss — 3:30pm ET, SECN

Line: Ole Miss -5.5, O/U 58.5

I apologize, Missouri, I was unfamiliar with your game. I dissed on the Tigers pretty bad in previewing their game against Florida, and all they did was whack the Gators 45-17 and then stifled Texas A&M 27-6. I won’t make that mistake again. Or will I?

The Tigers’ offense is 14th in the nation in adjusted EPA per play and 19th in yards per play, compared with 44th and 36th for Ole Miss. Ole Miss’s defense is the clearest weakness in this matchup, ranking 91st in opponent success rate and 100th in opponent adjusted EPA per play. Missouri’s defense sits in the 90th percentile for EPA allowed and 94th percentile in success rate allowed.

Still, I’ve yet to see Missouri do it on the road in the SEC. And in what figures to be a pass-heavy, high-scoring game, and edge goes to the Heisman-hopeful QB (Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss). With all that said, right team, wrong number.

Ole Miss win/Missouri cover

No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU — 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Notre Dame -10.5, O/U 46.5

The Irish have played only one team within the SP+ Top 55 (#34 Wisconsin). But still, their adjusted metrics make them a decisive favorite. They lead the country in offensive adjusted EPA per play and they rank 2nd in points per drive and third in success rate, EPA per snap, and EPA per dropback. The defense is just as strong. It is sixth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and fourth in rush success rate allowed (33.8%).

The Cougars are obviously no slouch. Their offense has been efficient too, ranking in the Top 10 in offensive success rate at 50.9%, but it is without running back LJ Martin and face a defensive front that has been among the best in the country, a tall order for a BYU team that relies on the run. BYU’s defense is 29th in opponent success rate but has struggled to stop the run, ranking 77th in EPA per rush allowed, which is the weakness Notre Dame is best built to exploit.

LaVell Edwards Stadium will be electric, and the Irish have little experience dealing with adversity so far. This should really be a test for them. I like Notre Dame to win, but double-digits feels like a bit too much.

Notre Dame win/BYU cover

No. 18 Oklahoma State at No. 20 Houston — 7:30pm ET, FOX

Line: Houston -4.5, O/U 62.5

This one sets up as another high-scoring affair. The history backs that up, since the over has hit in five straight meetings between these teams. Houston is 7th in the country in offensive success rate but 58th in opponent success rate, while Oklahoma State is 22nd in success rate but 46th in opponent success rate. Oklahoma State arrives with a four-game winning streak that includes a Week 2 upset of Oregon, but its minus-3 turnover margin is a concern.

Houston, for its part, is coming off a 35-16 win at Kansas State. Their lone loss was at Texas Tech by just two points, but because of that result this feels like an elimination game for the Cougars to make the Big 12 title game and stay in the CFP conversation. That turnover issue for the Cowboys sticks with me as a possible difference maker in a game that could come down to who has the ball last.

Houston win/Oklahoma State cover

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Quick Hits

We went 0-5 straight up. Every team we picked to win last week lost, and three of them were favored by at least 9.5 points.

Oklahoma 27, Texas 24. We had Texas first for four weeks and wrote each week that the case against the Longhorns was the offense. The offense finally cost them. Tate Sandell kicked a 47-yard field goal on the final play, and Oklahoma won a game in which it gained 238 yards and scored one offensive touchdown. The other two came on a blocked punt recovered in the end zone and Peyton Bowen’s 42-yard interception return. Arch Manning threw three touchdown passes and two interceptions, and the second one, with 19 seconds left, set up the winning kick. Texas converted three of 14 third downs. John Mateer, whom Oklahoma had talked about benching, completed 18 of 26 passes and hit Isaiah Sategna for 13 and 20 yards to get Sandell in range. It was Oklahoma’s first win over a No. 1 team since 2007. We said the Sooners would cover 9.5 points. We did not say they would win.

Georgia 20, Alabama 17. We ranked Georgia third and Alabama fourth and picked Alabama anyway, on the grounds that home field was worth more than the gap between them. The ranking was right and the pick was wrong. Dwight Phillips Jr. ran for 120 yards, Georgia ran for 206 as a team without Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens, and Gunner Stockton completed 18 of 22 passes for 249 yards, including 9 of 10 on third down. It was Kirby Smart’s first win in Tuscaloosa.

It came with an argument. Late in the fourth quarter, officials did not flag Georgia safety KJ Bolden on what looked like pass interference in the end zone. Bolden sacked Keelon Russell on the next play and Alabama punted. Georgia also recovered all five of its own fumbles. Russell was 16 of 30 for 185 yards, and Ryan Coleman-Williams left the game twice, the second time to be evaluated for a concussion. We called for 59 points and got 37.

UCLA 17, Oregon 15. The game had ten turnovers, and seven of them were Oregon’s. Dylan Raiola completed six passes for 43 yards with two interceptions before Dan Lanning went to Brock Thomas, whose 44-yard touchdown pass to Evan Stewart made it 17-15 with 2:16 left. Oregon got two tries at the two-point conversion because of a facemask penalty, and UCLA stopped Jordon Davison from half a yard out on the second. Wayne Knight ran for 103 yards and scored both UCLA touchdowns. The Bruins lost Nico Iamaleava to a lower leg injury before halftime and finished the game with Ty Dieffenbach. Bob Chesney is 5-0. We said for two weeks that we would move Oregon once we knew its quarterback. Now we know, and the Ducks are out of our twenty. Oregon has to run the table (including winning at Columbus) to make the CFP.

Kentucky 35, LSU 34, in overtime. For the second straight week Will Stein went for two and the win in overtime, and for the second straight week it worked, by the same score. Kenneth Minchey ran it in untouched. Adam Zouagui missed field goals of 42 and 26 yards in the last five minutes of regulation, then made a 33-yarder with 12 seconds left to force overtime. Kentucky played without six defensive regulars and still gained 401 yards on a defense that had been allowing 220.6 a game. We had Kentucky covering in our first draft last week and switched to LSU when SP+ came out. That was a mistake.

North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17. We left Pitt out of our twenty at 5-0 because Mason Heintschel was out for the season, and then we picked the Panthers to win by three. Holden Geriner was 27 of 44 for 219 yards with two interceptions in his first college start. Pitt took a 17-14 lead in the second half, and Billy Edwards Jr. answered with a 75-yard touchdown pass to Shamar Easter. It was Bill Belichick’s first win over a ranked opponent at North Carolina.

South Carolina 38, Florida 19. Last week we kept Florida two spots ahead of a Missouri team that had just beaten it by 28, and wrote that one more result like it would flip the order. LaNorris Sellers accounted for five touchdowns, four of them passing, and Dylan Stewart forced two fumbles in his return from a suspension. South Carolina had lost eight straight SEC games. Florida has lost its last two by a combined 47 points, played its second straight game without Vernell Brown III, and heard Jon Sumrall booed at home. The Gators are out of the ranking, and they go to Texas next.

Indiana 20, Nebraska 17. Nebraska led 17-6 early in the fourth quarter after Anthony Colandrea’s 39-yard touchdown run. Josh Hoover hit Nick Marsh for 75 yards on the next snap, then found him again for 44 on fourth-and-1. Marsh had six catches for 187 yards. Indiana ran for 65 yards, its season low, and trailed at halftime for the first time since last year’s Big Ten championship game. It has won 22 straight. Nebraska has lost 31 straight to ranked opponents.

Most of the rest of the ranked teams took care of business. Notre Dame beat Stanford 58-7, with freshman Jonaz Walton scoring on runs of 97 and 40 yards. Ohio State beat Maryland 45-16. Ole Miss won 52-17 at Vanderbilt. Missouri beat Texas A&M 27-6 behind 222 rushing yards from Jamal Roberts. Iowa won 41-24 at Washington on Friday, and USC won 31-23 at Penn State, which is 3-3 overall and 0-3 in the Big Ten. Utah beat Kansas 41-24. BYU beat Iowa State by 14 with 329 passing yards and 109 rushing yards from Bear Bachmeier. Tennessee turned it over three times and won by seven at Arkansas. Houston won 35-16 at Kansas State, and tight end Patrick Overmyer caught four touchdown passes, tying the FBS record for the position. Miami, Texas Tech and Mississippi State were off.

Power Rankings

Georgia moves up two, to No. 1. For five weeks the knock on Georgia was that it had not played anyone. It has now won on the road against the team we had fourth. FPI gives Georgia a 95.7 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, the highest in the country, and a 54.3 percent chance of winning the SEC. The 41-13 win over Oklahoma two weeks ago looks better today than it did on Friday. We would not go as far as some of the coverage, which has Georgia settling every question. It won by three, it recovered all five of its own fumbles, it got the benefit of the no-call, and ESPN notes it allowed six plays of 20 yards or more, its most in a game since 2024. SP+ moved Ohio State past Georgia into first after the game. We think Georgia is the best team in the country. The gap to Alabama is small.

Miami moves up two. The Hurricanes were off. They move because Texas and Alabama lost, and because nothing happened to change what we thought of them. ESPN notes that Miami is first in the country in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Pitt and Duke both lost on Saturday, which leaves Miami as the only unbeaten team in the ACC.

Notre Dame moves up two. The Irish won 58-7, and their win at North Carolina improved when the Tar Heels won at Pitt. FPI now rates Notre Dame first. We keep the Irish behind Miami because we moved Miami past them a week ago and neither has given us a reason to switch back. They play each other on November 7th. Saturday’s trip to BYU is Notre Dame’s hardest game so far.

Alabama drops one. A three-point loss to our new No. 1, with that no-call in it, does not cost much. Alabama falls behind Miami and Notre Dame, who are unbeaten, and stays ahead of Texas. The Tide lost to the best team in the country. Texas lost to a team that came in 2-2. Alabama’s 45-17 win at Kentucky also got better on Saturday night.

Texas drops five. Texas lost to an opponent that gained 238 yards. ESPN has the Longhorns at 5.4 yards a play and 3.7 yards a carry, both worse than 100th in the country. We do not drop them further because the wins over Ohio State and at Tennessee are still two of the best on anyone’s résumé.

Why Ohio State stays ahead of Texas. Texas beat Ohio State, and we have Texas four spots behind the Buckeyes. That needs explaining. The game was in Week 2, in Austin, and Texas won it by one point on a fourth-quarter comeback. That result says the two teams were about even five weeks ago. Since then Ohio State has won four straight, including 31-14 at an Iowa team that is now 5-1 and just recently won by 17 at Washington. Texas nearly lost at Tennessee and then lost in Dallas. The two losses are also not the same. Ohio State lost by one on the road to a team that is still in everyone’s top six. Texas lost on a neutral field to a team that came in 2-2, gained 238 yards and scored one offensive touchdown. FPI rates Ohio State third and Texas sixth, and SP+ has Ohio State first and Texas sixth. The polls and the committee break a tie between teams with the same record by looking at who won when they played. That is a fair way to compare résumés, and Texas has the two best wins between them, over Ohio State and at Tennessee. Even so, résumé SP+ has Ohio State eighth and Texas ninth. We are ranking who we think is the better team today, and we think that is Ohio State. If the Buckeyes lose in Bloomington on Saturday, this order changes.

UCLA enters at 11. The Bruins are 5-0 with three road wins over power-conference teams, and ESPN notes this was their first win at Autzen Stadium since 2004. We slot them behind the three Big 12 unbeatens because Oregon handed them seven turnovers and because Iamaleava’s status is unknown. The models split on the Bruins. FPI ranks them 36th. SP+ has them 18th, and seventh in its résumé ranking.

Kentucky enters at 16. The Wildcats are 5-1 with wins at Texas A&M, at South Carolina and over LSU, and the only loss is to Alabama. Two of those wins came by one point in overtime, which is why they are not higher. FPI has Kentucky 30th and SP+ has it 47th.

LSU drops ten. That is the biggest move of the week and one short of the largest drop we have made all year. LSU is 4-2, and CBS points out that its best wins are now Texas A&M, which is 3-3, and Clemson, which is 3-2. The Tigers have lost to Ole Miss and Kentucky, and both are ahead of them here. They stay in the twenty because both losses came on the road, by a combined nine points, and because FPI still rates them eighth and SP+ ninth. Mississippi State comes to Baton Rouge on Saturday.

Oregon and Florida leave the ranking. Oregon is 3-2 with losses to Oklahoma State and UCLA and has used three quarterbacks in five games. Florida is 4-2 and has been beaten by 28 and 19 in back-to-back weeks. Oregon is not finished affecting the race. FPI still rates the Ducks ninth and SP+ 12th, Dante Moore is still in concussion protocol and could return, and they go to Ohio State on November 7th. As we said above, Oregon would need to run the table to make the CFP.

Texas Tech, BYU and Utah each move up one as LSU falls past them. Utah stays one spot behind BYU until they play on November 7th. Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee and Iowa each move up two into the space Oregon and Florida left, and all four won. USC moves up one after winning at Penn State. Ohio State, Indiana, Mississippi State and Nebraska hold. Nebraska lost, but it lost by three to our No. 7 team after leading by 11 in the fourth quarter. Houston, Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, Arizona and Boise State, all with one loss, are the next group.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 6 AP poll has Georgia first, then Notre Dame, Miami, Texas, Ohio State, Indiana and Alabama. It moves UCLA from 21st to 11th, brings Kentucky in at 19 and has LSU hanging on at 25. It drops Oregon, Florida and Pitt. The real poll was not out at press time. Last week’s projection, which we used on the board, missed in a few places. The AP had Ohio State fifth and Alabama sixth, Texas Tech 11th, Florida 16th, Iowa 20th and UCLA 21st, and it left Kentucky out. It did rank Pitt, at 25.

ESPN’s committee projection goes Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Indiana, BYU, Ole Miss, UCLA, Utah and Kentucky, with Boise State taking Kentucky’s bracket spot as the top Group of Six team. CBS’s bowl projection seeds Miami, Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama in the top four and has Notre Dame, Indiana, Utah, Texas, UCLA, Ole Miss, Kentucky and Boise State behind them.

We differ in three places. Both the poll projection and the committee projection keep Texas ahead of Ohio State on the head-to-head, and we have it the other way, for the reasons given above. Neither bracket has Texas Tech in its twelve, and we have the Red Raiders eighth. They have not lost, and they do not play Utah or BYU. And both projections have Kentucky in their top twelve, while we have the Wildcats 16th.

FPI’s post-Week 6 run has Notre Dame first, then Georgia, Ohio State, Miami, Alabama, Texas and Indiana. That is our top seven in a slightly different order. It disagrees with us further down. It has LSU eighth and Oregon ninth, where we have LSU 18th and Oregon unranked. It has Nebraska 12th and Houston 18th. It has Iowa 23rd, Mississippi State 27th, Kentucky 30th and UCLA 36th. FPI is a rating of how good a team is likely to be from here. We give more weight than it does to the results a team already has, which is why UCLA and Kentucky are in our twenty and Oregon is not.

SP+’s October 11th run moved Ohio State past Georgia into first, with Notre Dame third, Miami fourth, Indiana fifth and Texas sixth. It has Utah seventh, ahead of Alabama, which fell two spots to eighth. It sides with FPI on LSU, which it has ninth, and on Oregon, which it has 12th. It moved Ole Miss up 19 spots to 16th and Oklahoma State up 20 to 22nd. It is closer to us than FPI is on UCLA, at 18th. It is further from us on Kentucky, at 47th. As it did a week ago, it has Nebraska, at 14th, well ahead of Iowa at 24th and Mississippi State at 28th, and we have Nebraska behind both. It also has Northwestern, which is 4-1, at 17th. Its résumé ranking goes Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Alabama, Indiana and Utah, then UCLA, Ohio State and Texas.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, and the Change column is against August. The week-over-week moves are bigger. LSU loses 24 points, which matches the largest cut we have made this season, and Texas loses 19. LSU has two losses with Mississippi State, Alabama and Texas still to come, and CBS and ESPN both describe the rest of its season as a series of elimination games. Texas is still more likely in than out at 64 percent, but it has Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU left and no longer has a loss to give.

Georgia gains 12 points and takes the highest playoff number on the board from Miami, which gains four of its own as the ACC thins out behind it. Indiana gains six, because it is 6-0 and because three SEC teams and Oregon just fell out of its way. Iowa and Missouri each gain six, USC gains four, and Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas Tech and Utah gain two apiece. Alabama gives back four, which is light for a loss, because it is the kind of loss the committee forgives. BYU gives back two with LJ Martin hurt and Notre Dame coming to Provo. Nebraska gives back two.

UCLA joins the table with a 30 percent chance and Kentucky with 20. ESPN’s Playoff Predictor had UCLA at 1 percent in August and has it at 33 now. Oregon, which we gave a 74 percent chance in August, and Florida fall into the field. The field grows to 1.80 and now also holds Houston, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Pitt. The Group of Six holds at 1.12. FPI gives Boise State a 46.6 percent chance of making the playoff and James Madison 27.1.

Conference Projections

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of winning its conference.

ACC. Miami 73 (up 3), Wake Forest 9 (up 6), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 3 (down 3), Duke 3 (down 4), field 2. Louisville and Virginia fall into the field. Miami is the only unbeaten team left in the league. Wake Forest is 5-1 and 3-1 in the ACC after scoring the last 31 points at NC State, and its only loss is to Miami. Duke lost 28-25 at Georgia Tech when Gavin Strange missed a 33-yard field goal with five seconds left. FPI has Miami at 82.6 percent.

SEC. Georgia 46 (up 18), Alabama 20 (down 4), Texas 14 (down 11), Ole Miss 5 (up 1), Missouri 4 (up 2), Kentucky 3 (new), Tennessee 2, LSU 2 (down 6), Oklahoma 1 (new), Mississippi State 1, field 2. Florida falls into the field. Georgia now holds the tiebreaker over Alabama, and ESPN says FPI gives the Bulldogs at least an 80 percent chance of winning each game they have left. Kentucky is 3-1 in the league. FPI has Georgia at 54.3 percent, Alabama at 23.9 and Texas at 13.5.

Big Ten. Ohio State 42 (up 2), Indiana 34 (up 7), UCLA 6 (new), Iowa 5 (up 1), Oregon 3 (down 12), USC 3, Wisconsin 3 (up 1), Nebraska 2 (down 3), field 2 (down 2). This is a two-team race, and the two teams play in Bloomington on Saturday. The field shrinks because Penn State and Michigan, the biggest names in it, are both winless in the league. FPI has Ohio State at 44.5 percent and Indiana at 41.1.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30, Utah 27, BYU 24, Houston 7 (up 3), Oklahoma State 5, Arizona 2, Baylor 2 (new), field 3 (up 1). Cincinnati and Kansas State fall into the field. Kansas State is 0-2 in the league. Last week we wrote that Cincinnati had taken its first loss without saying to whom. It was to Arizona, which has now won four straight and scored 52 at West Virginia. Houston hosts Oklahoma State on Saturday, and CBS notes that Oklahoma State also gets Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th. FPI has Texas Tech at 33.6 percent, Utah at 28.0 and BYU at 21.7.

Pac-12. Boise State 64 (up 8), Oregon State 20 (up 9), Fresno State 7 (down 8), Washington State 4, Texas State 2 (down 5), San Diego State 1 (down 4), Utah State 1, Colorado State 1. Boise won 38-31 at Fresno State in the game we circled in August, with 150 rushing yards from Dylan Riley and 120 from Sire Gaines. Oregon State beat San Diego State 66-14 and has won four straight. FPI has Boise at 68.0 percent, Oregon State at 24.1 and Texas State at 1.4.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a sixth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. Starting this week we also rank four more leagues behind them: the American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and the MAC. The SEC had three top-ten teams lose on the same day, which ESPN says has happened only three times in the history of the AP poll. All three lost to other SEC teams. FPI still has ten SEC teams in its top 25, with seven from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and three from the ACC. SP+ counts it differently, with nine from the Big Ten, seven from the SEC, six from the Big 12 and two from the ACC. We keep the SEC first because it has four of SP+’s top nine teams and the Big Ten has two.

The SEC has a clear No. 1 for the first time this season. Georgia has Auburn and Florida next and should be unbeaten when the first committee ranking comes out on November 3rd. Behind it, the league spent Saturday reshuffling. Texas lost to an Oklahoma team that had lost by 28 to Georgia. LSU lost to a Kentucky team that had lost by 28 to Alabama. Florida, which beat Ole Miss by 24 two weeks ago, lost at home to a South Carolina team that had dropped eight straight league games. Shane Beamer’s seat cooled and Jon Sumrall’s first bad month began. At Texas A&M, which is 3-3 after starting 11-0 a year ago, Mike Elko used his postgame press conference to go after a fan site. LSU still matters to everyone else, whatever happens to its own chances. Alabama goes to Baton Rouge on November 7th and Texas goes there a week later, and FPI still rates LSU eighth. Missouri goes to Ole Miss, Alabama goes to Tennessee and Kentucky goes to Oklahoma.

The Big Ten gets its game of the year on Saturday, when Ohio State goes to Indiana in a rematch of last year’s conference championship game. Indiana won that one. The surprise is behind them. UCLA is one of two unbeaten teams left in the league, and the other is Indiana. The Bruins host Wisconsin, which has won four straight since losing to Notre Dame. Oregon is 1-1 in the league and hosts Nebraska, where Dylan Raiola played before he transferred. Iowa and USC both won on the road. Penn State is 3-3, the same record that got James Franklin fired a year ago, and Michigan is winless in the league under Kyle Whittingham.

The Big 12 still has three unbeatens and still has not sorted them. Texas Tech was off and hosts Arizona State. Utah never trailed against Kansas. BYU won by 14 without LJ Martin and now gets Notre Dame without him. The league’s best game on Saturday is one tier down, where Houston hosts Oklahoma State with both teams at one loss. Houston is a failed two-point conversion at Texas Tech from being unbeaten. Arizona is 5-1 with its only loss at BYU. West Virginia has lost three straight after a 3-0 start and has allowed 40 or more in all three.

The ACC is down to one unbeaten. Pitt lost at home in Holden Geriner’s first start, and Duke lost at a Georgia Tech team that had not beaten an FBS opponent in six tries. Wake Forest is the best of the rest. Jake Dickert’s team is 5-1 with three road wins over power-conference opponents, and Gio Lopez threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns in Raleigh. North Carolina, 3-2 after winning at Pitt, goes to Duke. Miami comes off its week off to face Florida State. SMU does not play Miami and hosts Wake Forest in November.

The Pac-12 race looks more like Boise State and Oregon State than Boise State and Fresno State now. Oregon State receiver Jesse Legree, a true freshman, has 38 catches for 932 yards and 12 touchdowns in six games. We rank the Pac-12 ahead of the four leagues below because its average team rates higher than theirs in both FPI and SP+, and because FPI has Boise State 29th and Oregon State 49th, which no other league in the group can match. SP+ is cooler on the top of the league. It has Boise 42nd, behind New Mexico and James Madison. Boise’s only loss is by seven at Oregon, Oregon State’s two losses are to Houston and Texas Tech, and Boise beat the MAC favorite, Western Michigan, by 25. The league is not deep. Three of its eight teams are below 100th in FPI. But FPI gives Boise a 46.6 percent chance of making the playoff, the best of any team outside the power conferences.

The American is the deepest of these leagues and has the weakest top. It has no team in FPI’s top 50, but only three of its 14 are below 100th, and its median team rates better than the Pac-12’s in both FPI and SP+. Memphis is 5-1 and 54th, and FPI gives the Tigers a 38.0 percent chance of winning the league, with North Texas at 25.6 and UTSA at 18.3. Both Memphis and North Texas have beaten UNLV. What the American does not have is a playoff candidate. FPI gives Memphis a 6.3 percent chance, the best in the league.

The Mountain West has the second-best team in the group. New Mexico is 4-1 under Jason Eck, 38th in FPI and 29th in SP+, which makes the Lobos the highest-rated team outside the power conferences in that system. Their only loss was 14-6 at Oklahoma, and they have scored 103 points in two games since. FPI gives them a 63.9 percent chance of winning the league. North Dakota State took its first FBS loss, 13-7 at UNLV, and goes to New Mexico on October 24th. Behind those two the league falls off, with five of its ten teams below 100th.

The Sun Belt is James Madison and not much else. The Dukes are the last unbeaten team in the Group of Six after a 27-24 win at Georgia Southern, their first close game of the season. They are 6-0 under Billy Napier, and FPI gives them a 62.0 percent chance of winning the league and a 27.1 percent chance of making the playoff, second to Boise State. The next Sun Belt team in FPI is 83rd, and half the league is below 100th. That thin schedule is the problem for James Madison, though résumé SP+ currently has the Dukes 16th and Boise State 23rd.

The MAC is last by a wide margin. It has no team in FPI’s top 75, and 11 of its 13 are below 100th. Western Michigan, at 4-2 and 76th, is the favorite with a 50.1 percent chance of winning the league, and its losses are to Michigan and Boise State. No MAC team has as much as a 1 percent chance of making the playoff.

The Week 7 Board

All times Eastern. All games are Saturday, October 17th. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor, and each percentage is the favorite’s chance of winning. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 6 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. For the first time in five weeks, the market and the Match-Up Predictor have the same favorite in every game on our board. They still disagree on how much. ESPN makes Ohio State close to a coin flip at 52.2 percent, where a four-point line implies about 60. It is also less confident than the line on Notre Dame. It is far more confident than the line on Houston, and somewhat more on Texas.

Predictions

Texas 30, Florida 17. ESPN gives Texas an 87.5 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings put the gap at about 15 points in Austin. SP+ makes it about 16. Florida has given up 83 points in two weeks. South Carolina threw four touchdown passes against what the AP called the league’s worst pass defense. Texas has its own problem. Its offense has been the question all season, and it just lost a game in which its defense allowed one offensive touchdown. But Manning threw for 260 yards and three scores against a far better defense than this one, and Florida has played two straight games without its leading receiver. We do not think Texas scores enough to push this over. Texas wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Texas has no loss left to give. Starting with this one, its next five opponents were all ranked in last week’s AP poll, and ESPN points out that a bad loss to Florida was one reason the committee left Texas out a year ago. A second loss to an unranked team would put the Longhorns on the bubble with Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play. For Florida, a third straight loss ends any playoff talk, and Georgia is still on the schedule. Two other teams have a stake in this. Missouri’s best win is over Florida, and Ole Miss’s worst loss is to Florida, so both need the Gators to stop sliding.

Ohio State 24, Indiana 21. ESPN gives Ohio State a 52.2 percent chance of winning, and FPI rates the Buckeyes 2.7 points better on a neutral field, which is about even in Bloomington. SP+ has the gap at 2.8 points and says the same thing. The market has Ohio State by four. We have Ohio State second and Indiana seventh, and we are still taking the points. Indiana has won 22 in a row, beat Ohio State in December and is at home. What worries us about the Hoosiers is the 65 rushing yards at Nebraska. Turbo Richard had ten yards on eight carries, and Ohio State’s defense is better than Nebraska’s. Hoover and Marsh will have to do it again. We think they keep it close and that Jeremiah Smith is the difference late. Ohio State wins, Indiana covers. Under.

What it means. This is the game that decides how the Big Ten race is shaped. FPI gives Ohio State a 44.5 percent chance of winning the league and Indiana 41.1, and the winner holds the tiebreaker. If Ohio State wins, both teams are still in good position. The Buckeyes would have their best win, and Indiana would be 6-1 with its only loss to a top-five team. The risk for Indiana is its schedule. ESPN says the Hoosiers have played the weakest slate of anyone in its top 12, and Ohio State is the highest-ranked team they will see, so a loss leaves them without a marquee win and without another chance at one before a possible rematch in the Big Ten championship game. If Indiana wins, the Hoosiers are close to a lock and Ohio State is the team in trouble. The Buckeyes would have two losses with a trip to USC and a home game against Oregon still to come. ESPN’s view is that a second loss would not knock them out, but it would open the debate and cost them in seeding.

That is why the result matters to the whole league. We give Ohio State a 78 percent chance of making the playoff and Indiana 74, and after them the Big Ten’s candidates are UCLA at 30, Iowa at 24, USC at 18 and Nebraska at 16. Both CBS and ESPN project three Big Ten teams in the field today, with UCLA as the third. An Ohio State win is the safer result for the conference, because it leaves both of its best teams with one loss or none. An Indiana win makes the Hoosiers safe and puts Ohio State one more loss from the bubble, and then a third bid depends on UCLA staying unbeaten without knowing if it has its quarterback, or on Iowa getting to 11-1 with a schedule that may not include a ranked win.

LSU 34, Mississippi State 27. ESPN gives LSU a 76.8 percent chance of winning, and the line is 11.5. FPI and SP+ both make it about 11.5 as well, so the models agree with the market, and the case for Mississippi State is ours and not theirs. Last week we sided with the bigger LSU number and were wrong, and the reasons to be careful have grown. LSU’s defense came in allowing 220.6 yards a game and gave up 401 to a Kentucky team missing six defenders. Mississippi State has had two weeks to get Kamario Taylor’s ankle right, and we held the Bulldogs in our ranking on the belief that the Alabama game was not a fair look at them. This is where we find out. LSU is the better team, it is at home, and Sam Leavitt threw for 275 yards on Saturday. We think LSU wins a game that stays within one score. LSU wins, Mississippi State covers. Over.

What it means. For LSU this is the first of the elimination games. CBS wrote that the Tigers need to win out, and they still have Alabama and Texas at home. A third loss in mid-October would end it. Mississippi State is 4-1, and a win in Baton Rouge would put it back in the playoff conversation, with Texas and Ole Miss still ahead. A Bulldogs win would also help Missouri, whose only loss is to Mississippi State.

Alabama 31, Tennessee 21. ESPN gives Alabama a 71.2 percent chance of winning, and both the line and FPI make it about a touchdown in Knoxville. SP+ is closer, at about four points, after dropping Alabama to eighth. Tennessee is 5-1 and does not know who its quarterback is. George MacIntyre threw for 247 yards with two interceptions at Arkansas, the Vols turned it over three times, and they needed all of DeSean Bishop’s 138 yards to beat a 2-4 team by seven. Alabama has already won by 28 at Kentucky and by 33 at Mississippi State. The thing to check is Coleman-Williams, who left the Georgia game twice. Georgia held Alabama to 17, and we do not think Tennessee’s defense is Georgia’s, but we also do not see the Vols scoring enough to get this to 57. Alabama wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Alabama can absorb the Georgia loss. It cannot easily absorb two in a row, because the trip to LSU is still ahead and Georgia now holds the tiebreaker for the SEC championship game. ESPN’s point is that it is hard to win a debate as a multi-loss team that did not play for its league title. For Tennessee, this is the win its résumé does not have. The Vols are 5-1 with their only loss to Texas, and beating Alabama would put them in the playoff discussion. A loss leaves them at two with South Carolina, Kentucky and LSU still to play.

Notre Dame 27, BYU 17. ESPN gives Notre Dame a 78.2 percent chance of winning. The line is 12.5, and FPI’s ratings make it about 11 in Provo. SP+ makes it only four, and it has BYU’s defense ninth in the country. Notre Dame has won every game by double digits, but it has not played on the road against a team like this. BYU has held its last two Big 12 opponents to ten points each, and Bachmeier just accounted for 438 yards by himself. He will have to, because ESPN reports that LJ Martin will not play. Notre Dame’s Leonard Moore missed the Stanford game with a concussion and is worth watching during the week. We think the Irish win a slower game than they are used to, and that 12.5 is a few points too many at night in Provo. Notre Dame wins, BYU covers. Under.

What it means. Notre Dame has no conference title to fall back on, so its margin is two games: this one and Miami on November 7th. ESPN notes that if the Irish lose both, their place in the field becomes a real question, and the committee would look hard at the rest of a schedule that has not been strong. A win in Provo would be their best of the season and would all but lock them in. BYU does not need this game to make the playoff, because the Big 12 champion gets in automatically. What it changes is the Cougars’ fallback. Beating Notre Dame would give BYU a win that could carry an at-large case if it loses the league, and it would be the Big 12’s best argument for a second bid. Losing means BYU most likely has to win the conference, and that road goes through Utah.

Houston 34, Oklahoma State 27. ESPN gives Houston a 74.9 percent chance of winning, which is a long way from a line of 3.5. FPI is closer to ESPN, with a gap that works out to about nine points in Houston. SP+ is nearer the line, at about four and a half. All three have Houston by more than 3.5, and we side with them. Houston outgained Kansas State 475 yards to 299 on the road, and Conner Weigman and Overmyer connected for four touchdowns. Oklahoma State is 4-1 under Eric Morris, and Drew Mestemaker threw for 304 yards against UCF, but the Cowboys were tied at halftime at home and gave up four touchdown passes. Both quarterbacks are good enough to get this past 58.5. Houston wins and covers. Over.

What it means. This is close to an elimination game in the Big 12 race. Houston already has a league loss, to Texas Tech, and a second one would leave it needing help from three unbeaten teams. Oklahoma State is 2-0 in the league, and a win here would mean its game against Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th could decide a spot in the conference title game. CBS already lists the Cowboys with Utah, BYU and Texas Tech as the four teams likely to settle the league. Neither team is in our playoff table yet. The winner will have a case to be.

The post 2026 College Football: Reviewing Week 6, Previewing Week 7 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Quick Hits

We went 4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread and 2-4 on totals. That makes the season 19-15 straight up, 16-16-1 against the spread and 18-10 on totals. All four of last week’s unders lost, one of them by half a point when Ohio State and Iowa landed on 45. On the model-versus-market games, both models were right about Pitt, and where ESPN was more confident than the line we sided with it on Alabama and against it on Florida. Both of those calls came in.

Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23. In August we had Alabama seventh in the SEC and wrote that if Keelon Russell hit, we would look silly by October. It is October. Russell threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a fourth, and Alabama outrushed Mississippi State 179 to 18. Kamario Taylor, limited by an ankle injury from the week before, lost a fumble and threw a pick-six to Dijon Lee Jr. in the first seven minutes, threw a second interception later, was sacked five times and came out early in the fourth quarter. Alabama has scored at least 45 in all five games, the only FBS team to do that, and has won 17 straight in the series.

Mississippi State also lost Fluff Bothwell, who carried once and watched the second half in a boot. The Bulldogs are off this week, then go to LSU.

Missouri 45, Florida 17. We picked Missouri to cover. We did not pick this. Missouri held Jadan Baugh to 13 rushing yards, which ended his streak of five straight 100-yard games. Jamal Roberts ran for more than 200 and Austin Simmons threw for more than 300. It was the first win over a top-ten team in Eli Drinkwitz’s tenure. After the Ole Miss game, Jon Sumrall told his team it had not arrived. A week later Missouri did to Florida what Florida had done to Ole Miss.

Pitt 35, Virginia Tech 33, and it cost Pitt its quarterback. John Love had made all six of his kicks this season. He missed from 36 yards on the final play. Virginia Tech outgained Pitt 499 yards to 295, and Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 434, but he turned it over three times. Mason Heintschel left in the third quarter with what was later reported as a torn ACL, and he is out for the season. Holden Geriner finished the game. Pat Narduzzi used his postgame interview to tell AP voters to wake up. Pitt is 5-0 and will probably be ranked this afternoon. It is also a different team from the one that got there.

Ohio State 31, Iowa 14. Jeremiah Smith caught 11 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns against constant double coverage and became Ohio State’s career leader in receptions and touchdown catches. He already held the yardage record. Through five games he has 44 catches for 823 yards and nine scores. Iowa’s only touchdown came in the fourth quarter. We had the Hawkeyes covering 14. They lost by 17.

Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26. The Irish were a yard from a 28-7 lead when North Carolina made a goal-line stand, drove the field before halftime and then returned the second-half kickoff 98 yards to make it 21-20. Notre Dame answered with a 17-play, 75-yard drive that took more than nine minutes, and it finished with a season-high 241 rushing yards. CJ Carr threw four touchdown passes and ran for a fifth. That is 15 straight wins. It is also 26 points allowed by a defense that had given up 33 in four games.

Penn State and Michigan are out of our twenty. Northwestern opened its new stadium by beating Penn State 34-13 and outrushing the Nittany Lions 413 yards to 48. In August we listed Penn State among the five teams we liked less than the projections. Michigan lost 20-14 at Minnesota. Bryce Underwood was 10 of 21 for 101 yards with two interceptions, and the Wolverines are 0-2 in the Big Ten for the first time since 2014.

Miami 41, Clemson 13. Miami went to Death Valley without three defensive regulars and outrushed Clemson 192 yards to 55. Darian Mensah threw for 227 yards and ran 34 yards for a touchdown, and Cooper Barkate took a screen pass to the end zone on Miami’s second snap. We had Clemson’s 13 exactly right and Miami’s number ten points short.

The rest of the ranked teams mostly survived. Texas Tech beat Colorado 29-7 but did not lead until late in the third quarter. BYU gained 216 yards and beat TCU 17-10. Kentucky rallied to beat South Carolina in overtime on a two-point conversion. USC needed a red-zone stand to hold off Washington 25-21. Tennessee benched freshman Faizon Brandon, got 220 yards and three touchdowns from Desean Bishop and beat Auburn with George MacIntyre at quarterback. Houston trailed UCF 17-0 in the third quarter and won 27-17.

Corrections

Last week we wrote that North Dakota State carried a 28.5 percent playoff chance in ESPN’s FPI and was close behind Boise State for the Group of Six bid. That number belonged to James Madison. North Dakota State, 5-0 in its first FBS season, is at 7.8 percent in the current FPI run. We regret the error.

Power Rankings

Alabama moves up four. A 33-point win on the road over the team we had 18th is the best result anyone posted in Week 5, and CBS notes it is the largest road margin over a ranked opponent in program history. Alabama passes Miami, Notre Dame and Indiana. None of those three has a win like it. In August we ranked Alabama 14th and gave it a 40 percent chance of making the playoff, and the reason we gave was the running game. It just ran for 179 yards and held a ranked opponent to 18. Résumé SP+ now has Alabama first by nearly five points. We keep the Tide one spot behind Georgia because FPI still rates Georgia second and Alabama sixth, and because they settle it themselves on Saturday in Tuscaloosa.

Miami moves up one. The Hurricanes won by 28 on the road with a short-handed defense, and they now have three road wins. FPI gives Miami a 93.2 percent chance to make the playoff, the highest in the country. The jump over Notre Dame is about the week: Miami allowed 13 at Clemson and Notre Dame allowed 26 at North Carolina.

Notre Dame slips two. Nothing is broken at 5-0. But ESPN ranks Notre Dame’s schedule 98th, the Irish have beaten one power-conference team with a winning record, and the defense that carried the résumé just had its first bad day. ESPN’s committee projection moved Alabama past Notre Dame for the same reasons.

Florida falls six. The Gators were outplayed in every phase, and 13 rushing yards from Baugh says the line of scrimmage was lost. We do not drop them further because the Ole Miss win is eight days old and still the second-best result on anyone’s schedule in this part of the ranking. That is also why Florida stays one spot ahead of Ole Miss. Each has one lopsided road loss, and Florida won the game between them by 24. FPI is harsher. It has Florida 15th with a 14.6 percent playoff chance, down from 48.9.

Missouri enters at 15. Yes, that is two spots behind a team it just beat by 28. Missouri’s other power-conference win is over Kansas, and it lost at Mississippi State a week ago. Florida has Ole Miss and a win at Auburn. One more result like Saturday’s and the order flips. ESPN’s committee projection treats it the same way, keeping Florida ninth and leaving Missouri out of its twelve.

Iowa drops two. A 17-point home loss to the No. 2 team in our ranking is not disqualifying, and Iowa’s remaining schedule is the friendliest in the Big Ten. But the offense did not reach the end zone until the fourth quarter, and both of Iowa’s good wins were by a combined four points.

USC drops two. The Trojans beat Washington at home by four and needed a late red-zone stand to do it. They are 5-1 with one win we would call good. Penn State is next, on the road.

Mississippi State drops one. We would normally move a team further after a 33-point home loss. Two things hold it here: the wins at Minnesota and South Carolina and over Missouri are still real, and Taylor was plainly not healthy. The off week matters more to this team than to anyone else in the twenty.

Nebraska enters at 20. The Huskers are 5-0 after beating Maryland 48-23, and Anthony Colandrea threw for 238 yards and ran for 108. FPI ranks them 13th. We take Nebraska over Pitt, which is also 5-0, because Pitt no longer has its quarterback. Indiana comes to Lincoln on Saturday.

Penn State and Michigan leave the ranking. Each is 3-2 and has lost two straight Big Ten games. Michigan is off this week and is weighing changes on offense.

Indiana slips two as Alabama and Miami pass it; the Hoosiers beat Rutgers 47-15. LSU, Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Oregon each move up one into the space Florida left, and Tennessee moves up one as Iowa and USC fall. Texas, Ohio State, Georgia and Ole Miss hold. We said we would move Oregon once we knew its quarterback for UCLA. We still do not. Dante Moore has a concussion, Dan Lanning has given no timetable, and Dylan Raiola is expected to start.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 5 AP poll has Texas first, Georgia second and Alabama up to fifth, with Florida 13th, Mississippi State 14th and Missouri 15th. It brings Pitt in at 25 and drops Iowa out. The real poll was not out at press time. Last week’s projection, which we used on the board, turned out to be off in a few places: the AP had Ohio State fifth, Alabama seventh, Florida eighth and Mississippi State 16th.

FPI’s October 4th run has Ohio State first, then Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Miami and Alabama. It has Florida 15th and Missouri 18th, the same order we do. ESPN’s committee projection goes Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Miami, Alabama, Notre Dame, Indiana, BYU, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU and Oregon. We are lower than the committee projection on Florida, and we still have LSU ahead of Ole Miss against the head-to-head.

SP+’s October 4th run keeps Georgia first and Ohio State second, with Indiana third, Alabama sixth and Texas eighth. It moved LSU up three spots to seventh and has Ole Miss 35th, which is the case for our order there. It has Missouri 15th, exactly where we do, but it puts Florida 20th, behind the Tigers. Résumé SP+ goes the other way, with Florida 18th and Missouri 23rd. Where SP+ disagrees with us most is the bottom of our twenty. It has Nebraska 12th, and it dropped Iowa 15 spots to 34th.

Texas stays first without playing. ESPN ranks the Longhorns first in strength of record and second in strength of schedule. SP+ has their schedule third-hardest and Georgia’s 93rd. The case against them is the offense, which averages 5.3 yards a play, 110th in the country. Oklahoma’s defense is next.

The Playoff Field

Alabama gains 16 points on the week and Florida loses 22. Those are the two big moves. Miami gains four and passes Texas for the highest number on the board. That is about the path and not the team: Miami’s nearest ACC challenger just lost its quarterback, and Texas still has five games against ranked SEC opponents. Ohio State gains four and is back to the 76 we gave it in August. Iowa and Mississippi State each lose ten, USC loses six and Ole Miss loses four as its best remaining argument, the LSU win, sits next to a 24-point loss to a team that just lost by 28. Oregon gives back two with Moore’s return undated.

Nebraska and Missouri join the table. Penn State and Michigan fall into the field, which grows to 1.55 and now also holds Pitt, UCLA, Duke, Wisconsin, Kentucky and Oklahoma State. The Group of Six ticks up to 1.12. FPI gives Boise State a 35.2 percent chance and James Madison 28.0.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 70 (up 10), Duke 7 (up 4), Pitt 6 (down 4), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4 (down 3), Wake Forest 3 (new), Louisville 1 (down 7), Virginia 1 (down 3), field 2 (up 1). Clemson falls into the field. Pitt won the game that was supposed to decide second place and lost Heintschel doing it, so its number goes down. Louisville lost at NC State and is 2-3. Virginia lost by 31 at Florida State. Duke is 4-0 and goes to Miami on November 14th. FPI has Miami at 81.2 percent.

SEC. Georgia 28 (up 1), Texas 25 (up 1), Alabama 24 (up 9), LSU 8 (down 1), Florida 4 (down 8), Ole Miss 4 (down 1), Missouri 2 (new), Tennessee 2 (new), Mississippi State 1 (down 3), field 2. Texas A&M and Oklahoma fall into the field. It is a three-team race at the top, and two of the three play each other on Saturday. Alabama misses both Texas and Florida. We gave the Tide 9 percent in August.

Big Ten. Ohio State 40 (up 5), Indiana 27 (up 2), Oregon 15 (down 1), Nebraska 5 (up 2), Iowa 4 (down 4), USC 3 (down 2), Wisconsin 2 (new), field 4 (up 1). Penn State and Michigan fall into the field. Wisconsin has won four straight since the Notre Dame loss and does not play Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon. Ohio State goes to Indiana on October 17th.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30, Utah 27 (up 1), BYU 24, Oklahoma State 5, Houston 4, Cincinnati 3 (down 1), Kansas State 3, Arizona 2, field 2 (up 1). West Virginia falls into the field at 0-2 in the league after losing 45-42 at Iowa State. Cincinnati took its first loss. Tech is unbeaten and still misses both Utah and BYU, which is why it stays on top, but its offense has now been a problem two weeks running.

Pac-12. Boise State 56 (up 6), Fresno State 15, Oregon State 11 (up 2), Texas State 7 (down 4), San Diego State 5 (down 1), Washington State 4 (down 1), Utah State 1 (down 2), Colorado State 1. Boise beat Utah State, and FPI now puts the Broncos at 66.8 percent and Texas State at 2.3. Boise goes to Fresno State on Saturday in the game we circled in August.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a fifth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. SP+ moved toward us at the top. A week ago it had nine Big Ten teams in its top 25 and eight from the SEC. Now it has eight from the SEC and six from the Big Ten. The Big 12 also has six and the ACC three. We keep the Big Ten second because it has the second- and third-ranked teams in SP+ and the Big 12’s best is ninth.

The SEC has three of our top four and the game of the year so far on Saturday. It also spent the week proving how thin the next tier is. Florida beat Ole Miss by 24 and lost to Missouri by 28. Mississippi State beat Missouri and lost to Alabama by 33. Kentucky, ranked for the first time since 2023, needed overtime at 2-3 South Carolina, where Shane Beamer’s seat is as hot as any in the country. Texas and Oklahoma were both off before Dallas. Georgia beat Vanderbilt 38-14 and still has not played a ranked team.

The Big Ten has the top-rated team in FPI and less behind it than it did a week ago. Ohio State handled the trip that usually bites. Indiana and Nebraska are both 5-0 and meet in Lincoln. But Iowa lost by 17, Penn State and Michigan are a combined 0-4 in league play, and USC was a red-zone stop from losing at home. Wisconsin beat Michigan State 31-3 and Northwestern is 3-1 with a six-point loss at Indiana. UCLA, 4-0, gets Oregon in Eugene.

The Big 12 kept its three unbeatens and did not look good doing it. Texas Tech trailed Colorado into the third quarter, BYU scored 17 at TCU and Utah was off. CBS’s bowl projection now has Utah as the league’s champion and calls it a one-bid league. Houston came from 17 down to beat UCF. Iowa State and West Virginia combined for 1,095 yards, and Aiden Flora ran for 212 and three touchdowns and threw for two more. Iowa State goes to BYU on Friday.

The ACC is Miami and a race for second that got worse. Pitt is 5-0 without its quarterback. Virginia Tech outgained Pitt by 204 yards and lost. Louisville is 2-3. Wake Forest, 4-1, beat Stanford by 54 and has now lost only to Miami. Duke, the defending champion, is 4-0 and still unranked. North Carolina, which scored 26 on Notre Dame, goes to Pitt on Saturday.

The Pac-12 is Boise State’s to lose, and Saturday at Fresno State is where it could. The better Group of Six story is elsewhere. James Madison is 5-0 under Billy Napier and second to Boise in FPI’s playoff odds. North Dakota State beat Wyoming 28-0 to get to 5-0. New Mexico is 4-1 after a 61-7 win over UTEP.

The Week 6 Board

All times Eastern. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 5 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. No line was posted for North Carolina at Pitt, which usually means the market is waiting on a quarterback. Georgia at Alabama gives us a model-versus-market split for the fourth straight week: DraftKings has Georgia by 2.5 and the Match-Up Predictor leans Alabama at 52.6 percent. ESPN is also more confident than the line on Texas and less confident than the line on LSU, where SP+ is on the other side.

Predictions

Pittsburgh 23, North Carolina 20. ESPN’s 74.5 percent almost certainly does not know about Heintschel. Geriner got Pitt home in Blacksburg, but the Panthers gained 295 yards and needed three turnovers and a missed kick. North Carolina is 2-2, and Billy Edwards Jr. just threw three touchdown passes against the best defense he will see. He also threw two interceptions, and the Tar Heels ran for 77 yards. Pitt’s defense and the home field are enough, barely. Pitt wins. With no line and no total posted, there is no call against the number.

Texas 20, Oklahoma 13. In August we gave Texas a 62 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff and Oklahoma a 40 percent chance. Texas is at 83 percent now, and Oklahoma is no longer in our playoff table. The Sooners are 2-2, lost 41-13 at Georgia and have talked about benching John Mateer, who turned it over four times in Athens. But SP+ still has Oklahoma’s defense sixth, next to an offense it ranks 78th, and Texas has not moved the ball on anyone good. It ran for 61 yards in Knoxville. A total of 41.5 says the market sees the same game we do, and 9.5 points is a lot in a game that low. Texas wins, Oklahoma covers. Under.

Oregon 34, UCLA 24. We had Oregon second in the country in August, with the defensive line we ranked first. The Ducks are 12th now, and the quarterback is the question. Raiola was 19 of 25 for 289 yards in relief at USC, and Oregon has had two weeks to build a plan around him. UCLA is 4-0 under Bob Chesney and has had the same two weeks. Lanning compared the Bruins to last year’s Indiana. This is their first real test, on the road, against a far better roster. SP+ has Oregon 10th and UCLA 21st, a gap that works out to about ten points in Eugene. Oregon wins, UCLA covers. Under.

LSU 30, Kentucky 17. Kentucky was not in our August plans, and first-year coach Will Stein has it 4-1 with a win at Texas A&M. Stein ran Oregon’s offense last year. The Wildcats also lost 45-17 at home to Alabama and needed a two-point conversion in overtime to beat South Carolina. LSU’s only loss is by eight at Ole Miss. The models split here. ESPN’s 75.4 percent implies a margin closer to a touchdown than to 9.5. SP+ has LSU seventh with the third-ranked defense in the country and Kentucky 46th, which makes it about 13 points in Lexington. We side with SP+ because Kentucky’s one game against a defense this good ended 45-17. Sam Leavitt’s hamstring is the thing to check during the week. LSU wins and covers. Under.

Alabama 31, Georgia 28. We have Georgia third and Alabama fourth, and we are picking Alabama. The game is in Tuscaloosa, and three spots of power ranking is worth less than home field. Georgia has been the most complete team in the models all year, and it has done it against a schedule ESPN ranked 89th coming into the week. Its one road win is at Arkansas. Alabama has scored 45 or more five times, and Russell has not flinched on the road. SP+ has Alabama’s offense first in the country and Georgia’s defense first, and its ratings make Georgia about a 2.5-point favorite in Tuscaloosa, the same as the market. The concern for Alabama is a defense that gave up 36 to Florida State and let it convert 8 of 15 third downs. Georgia will score. We think Alabama scores last. Alabama wins outright. Over.

That is three underdogs and one favorite against the number, and three unders.

The post 2026 College Football: Reviewing Week 5, Previewing Week 6 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

First, Some Business…

We’ve had two off-field developments within the past several days that could impact the future of college football.

First, the Protect College Sports Act passed a Senate vote by a wide majority. The bill would enshrine several things intended to bring stability that college sports leadership have been unable or unwilling to implement on their own within existing laws. I’ll go into more details and likely impact if/when it becomes law, but in short it will cap compensation for players via both school revenue sharing and NIL, limit individual player transfers to one throughout their eligibility, limit eligibility to five years within the age range the NCAA recently attempted to institute, limit conference expansion, and require schools to maintain a minimum number of non-revenue sports (both women’s and men’s). It will also give the NCAA an antitrust exemption that will allow the organization to enforce the rules in the bill. It faces an uncertain future in the House, and a ticking clock, as the current Congress concludes at the end of this year with midterm elections looming next month.

The other development is based on reporting from Yahoo! Sports’ Ross Dellenger on impending College Football Playoff expansion. Dellenger reports that multiple sources tell him that expansion to 24 teams is coming, and it’s only a matter of when and what exactly it will look like. It appears to be a compromise between competing desires between the two conference powers; the Big Ten and SEC. The Big Ten was pushing for a 24 team playoff comprised mostly of automatic bids for the Power Four conferences, while the SEC preferred a 16-team format that took the top-ranked teams, regardless of conference affiliation except for guaranteeing one spot to the top G6 team. Now it looks like it will be the Top 24 teams, with the G6 guaranteed one spot.

The new playoff is expected to replace conference championship games, which have lost a lot of significance in the expanded CFP era. There is still a matter of needing to make the conferences whole for the money they will lose without those games — the SEC in particular makes about $100M annually for its title game — but it doesn’t sound like that will be an issue. ESPN is currently in an exclusive negotiation window for the broadcast rights that ends October 9, and then the CFP can take it to the open market. FOX now seems very interested in getting a piece, despite being conspicuously absent from bidding when the 12-team model was up for grabs.

Dellenger’s sources indicate the first round is likely to begin the first weekend in December, the traditional weekend for conference title games. The second round, likely to be played at the home stadium of higher seeded teams, won’t be until the third weekend in December. The Saturday in between will continue to be the exclusive domain of the Army-Navy game and Heisman Trophy presentation. What would happen should either Army or Navy make the CFP is not yet determined.

Who Has Separated?

At this point in the season teams that are separating themselves are those headed in the wrong direction. Starting with teams that made the CFP last year, Oklahoma is not in good shape after following-up their loss at Michigan with an uninspiring 14-6 win against New Mexico and then a 41-13 pasting at Georgia. With Texas up next week, followed by five more teams currently in AP Top 25, the Sooners are probably playing for bowl eligibility and perhaps to save Brent Venables’ job.

Texas A&M is another ’25 playoff team facing a very difficult, if not nearly impossible, pathway back. After a shocking 31-21 loss to Kentucky at home, they had the misfortune of facing a salty LSU squad in Death Valley coming off a bitter loss the week before. Coach Mike Elko has been noncommittal on the starting status of QB Marcel Reed, but there doesn’t appear to be much in the way of options behind him. Could be a tough year in College Station.

Michigan got their just desserts by losing on the final play to Iowa (see Week 1 for that reference). The Wolverines offense just isn’t good enough, and with games against Indiana plus road trips to Oregon and Ohio State left, it probably won’t even matter how the playoff selection committee views that WMU game.

Staying in the Big Ten, what a mess at USC. Losing to Oregon (again) is one thing. Losing to Oregon’s backup quarterback, in the wake of a dirty and classless incident that sent starter Dante Moore to the hospital might be the nadir for the Lincoln Riley era. That game had a similar vibe to Oregon’s trip to Penn State last year. The Lions returned many key players from a team that had made the CFP semifinal the season prior and believed it was finally their year. They had that particular game circled the moment the schedule was released — it was their prime time “white out” game. Then they fell apart in the decisive moments and lost in overtime, and never recovered. James Franklin was fired just two weeks later. USC can still save their season, but it feels so similar to ’25 PSU. I would not be shocked if AD Jen Cohen is putting out feelers to see if the $70M-plus buyout they’d owe Riley could be scraped together. She can at least make the plea that she wasn’t the one who made the mistake of hiring him.

Every Week Is Different

We shouldn’t be too surprised that the week after Ole Miss hung on for an exhilarating win — against the ex who left them at the CFP altar for their longtime nemesis, then showed up at their home with said nemesis in tow — that the Rebels fell completely flat on the road in a 52-28 loss at Florida. Being without RB Kewan Lacy, and QB Trinidad Chambliss playing through a thigh bruise, didn’t help, but didn’t affect the outcome either. They have this weekend to heal before a trip to Vanderbilt, but tough matchups against Texas and Georgia loom, so this one didn’t leave them much margin for error.

Some Good Surprises

Was Oklahoma State’s ugly Week 1 loss at Tulsa an aberration, and the team that the very next week snuck up and pants’d Oregon is the real Cowboys? An impressive 41-24 win at West Virginia got the AP voters’ attention, as OSU debuted at #19. Coach Eric Morris followed a familiar pattern for G6-to-P4 coaches by bringing a lot of his players from North Texas last year to Stillwater with him, and after a tough start it appears to be paying off.

If you are a power conference school in search of a new head coach, it would appear you should look no further than Harrisonburg, Virginia. That of course is the home of James Madison University, who gifted Curt Cignetti to defending national champ Indiana, and now has shared the love with the west coast in the form of Bob Chesney, who has UCLA off to a 4-0 start and ranked #23. The current Dukes coach is a familiar name — Billy Napier. Unlike his predecessors, Napier does have power conference head coaching experience, and it did not go well (he was 22-23 in 3-plus seasons at Florida). Perhaps it’s only Big Ten schools that benefit from the JMU pipeline?

Doubling back to the status in the Magnolia State, how about the Mississippi State? Jeff Lebby’s crew sport an impressive win at Minnesota, drove another nail in Shane Beamer’s coffin at South Carolina, then knocked off #19 Missouri Saturday. We’ll see just how real the Bulldogs are this weekend, as they host Alabama.

Top 10

1. Georgia — Ole Miss was primed for a let down, but that level of domination keeps them at the top for me

2. Texas — It wasn’t pretty, but they got the job done in Knoxville, never an easy place to play. I’ll certainly hear any arguments I should have them at #1 like the others

3. Notre Dame — Style points are important with a relatively soft schedule, and they’ve done it so far.

4. Ohio State — Will they take care of business at Kinnick Saturday, or meet the same fate as many other ranked teams have?

5. Miami — Wake Forest pushed the Hurricanes a bit in Week 3 at Winston-Salem. Another potentially sneaky road trip to Clemson awaits, and they’d be wise to take care of business  

6. Indiana — Northwestern gave them enough of a scare that it’s time to ponder whether they adequately replaced the experience-heavy title team

7. Alabama — That 45-17 Week 2 win at Kentucky is really holding up nicely

8. LSU — The Tigers really took their frustrations out on Texas A&M

9.  BYU — Mark your calendar now for Oct 17 when they host Notre Dame. Provo is gonna be rabid.

10. Florida — Great start for GA Tech transfer QB Aaron Philo

No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State — Noon ET, ABC

Line: Alabama -6, O/U 60.5

Can you name the last Mississippi State quarterback to defeat Alabama? If you guessed Dak Prescott, you’d be….incorrect. It was Wesley Carroll back in 2007. Carroll did not have a great day then — he was just 9/21, 100 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT. Lucky for him his Tide counterpart, John Parker Wilson, had a slightly worse day — including an endzone-to-endzone Pick Six. Alright, that’s enough history. Simply pointing out this series has not exactly gone well for MSU.

Focusing on the present, the Tide have mostly toyed with their opponents thus far, the closest win being 50-36 against Florida State, a game they actually trailed 21-6 early in the 2nd Qtr before emphatically storming back. While Alabama’s defense has been stingy overall, that Florida State showing (471 yards allowed, 8/15 3rd downs converted, 2/3 4th downs) raises a red flag. Mississippi State counters with quarterback Kamario Taylor, who torched Missouri for 360 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 win that kept the Bulldogs unbeaten and pushed them into the rankings. This one has the makings of a high-scoring affair and could be defined by whichever defense can get the crucial stop. I don’t think that favors the Bulldogs even with home field and over 40,000 cowbells behind them.

Alabama win/cover

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa — 3:30pm ET, CBS

Line: Ohio State -14.5, O/U 45.5

Should we be a little concerned with Ohio State’s defense? First it was their 4th Quarter collapse at Texas, then last week they gave up 199 yards rushing to Illinois on 6.0 per carry. They did get stops on 6 of 14 3rd downs, but that’s an eyebrow-raising number. Of course, this is Iowa they’re playing, who have averaged just 18 ppg against power conference teams so far. The Hawkeyes win, especially at home, with their defense and field position game that tends to stress offenses used to scoring at will. But they haven’t seen anyone like WR Jeremiah Smith, who had an insane 12 receptions for 217 yards and 4 TDs against the Illini last week. The Hawkeyes must pressure QB Julian Sayin and not give him ample time to find Smith, or this one won’t be close.

Kinnick Stadium is known as the place where Top 5 teams go to die. Since 2008 the Hawkeyes have gone 5-2 against the Top 5 at home. I don’t think they will make it 6-2, but I’m not a fan of the 14.5-point spread either.

Ohio St win/Iowa cover

No. 8 Florida vs. No. 25 Missouri — 3:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Florida -5.5, O/U 57.5

Am I the only one who doesn’t understand the Missouri love? After an 8-5 ’25 season, returning just 49% of their production per SP+ (76th), they climbed to 19th after wins over Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kansas and Troy. They played Mississippi State tight, but gave up two 4th Qtr TDs to lose yet still sit at the edge of the Top 25. They’ll be facing an offense that has averaged nearly 533 yards per game against defenses better than theirs. By the way, the Tiger D is just 104th in defensive EPA per rush and misses and average of 3.6 tackles per game. Yuk. Offensively the Tigers do move the ball well (418.8 ypg) but they struggle to finish drives (they’ve scored on only 76% of possessions in the red zone).

Could Florida experience a letdown on the road after their big thumping of Ole Miss last week? Of course. But my radar says they take care of business in Columbia.

Florida win/cover

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Quick Hits

We were wrong about Ole Miss at sixth. Florida won 52-28, and it was not close after halftime. Jadan Baugh ran for 142 yards and three touchdowns, Duke Clark added 126, and the Gators ran for 302 yards and six scores. Florida scored touchdowns on five straight second-half drives. Baugh has topped 100 yards in five straight games, which puts him with Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor in school history. Florida had lost 12 in a row to top-five teams.

Ole Miss played without Kewan Lacy, and his replacement ran 11 times for 31 yards. Trinidad Chambliss hurt his left thigh on the second series, rode the exercise bike between drives and still threw for 298. Pete Golding said his team got whipped. We would not argue.

Texas survived Knoxville. Texas won 20-17, and the defense did it again. Colin Simmons, whose boot was precautionary after all, had five sacks, tying Shane Dronett’s program record from 1990. Texas had ten as a team. Simmons also drew an unsportsmanlike flag for a celebration Steve Sarkisian had to answer for afterward. Arch Manning threw for 201 yards with an interception and was sacked six times. Texas committed 11 penalties for 115 yards, gave up a punt-return touchdown and let Tennessee recover an onside kick with 1:22 left. Jelani McDonald knocked down the Hail Mary on the final play. Tennessee still has not beaten the AP’s No. 1 team since 1985.

Oregon won at the Coliseum, and lost Dante Moore doing it. In the second quarter, USC linebacker Desman Stephens hit Moore late on a slide. Stephens was ejected for targeting. Moore left in an ambulance. Dan Lanning said afterward that Moore was moving and would not say more. Dylan Raiola, the Nebraska transfer, went 19 of 25 for 289 yards and two touchdowns, and Oregon won 41-27. The Ducks scored on seven of nine drives and averaged 7.4 yards a snap. Raiola isn’t Moore, but he didn’t play like a backup. USC has lost five straight to Oregon.

Iowa 20, Michigan 19. Hank Brown took Iowa 91 yards and threw a 16-yard touchdown to Reece Vander Zee as time expired. The Hawkeyes got set for that last snap because a Michigan defensive lineman was hurt on the play before and the clock stopped. ESPN’s win probability had Michigan at 98.6 percent with 11 seconds left. It was Iowa’s first road win over a ranked Big Ten team since 2015, and it ended Michigan’s 47-game winning streak when leading at halftime, the longest active run in FBS. Three weeks ago, Michigan beat Western Michigan in the same stadium with an extra second on the clock.

LSU 35, Texas A&M 6. We had A&M covering. A&M was outgained 506 yards to 197. Sam Leavitt went 17 of 23 for 312 and hit Jackson Harris for two touchdowns, one a 57-yarder on fourth down that Lane Kiffin nearly punted away. Marcel Reed completed 10 of 26 for 106 and was pulled in the fourth quarter. The Aggies were eighth in the preseason poll. They are 2-2. LSU paid a price: Leavitt pulled a hamstring, and linebacker Whit Weeks left in a walking boot.

Two home favorites lost to unranked teams. Wake Forest won at Louisville 30-27 as a two-score underdog. Carlos Hernandez caught nine passes for 194 yards, and Gabe Kirschke blocked a 57-yard try in the final seconds. Louisville was flagged nine times for 90 yards and played without two starting defensive backs. It was the third time under Jeff Brohm that Louisville has lost the week after beating a ranked team.

At Beaver Stadium, Wisconsin trailed 17-0 and won 24-20. Colton Joseph threw two early interceptions, then led two long scoring drives, the last ending in a 72-yard touchdown to Jacob Harris on third-and-13 with 1:13 left. It was Wisconsin’s first win in State College since 2003 and Matt Campbell’s first loss at Penn State. Rocco Becht was 12 of 29 for 129 without receiver Koby Howard, who is week to week.

Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24. This was our most model-dependent pick, and the market and SP+ were right. Drew Mestemaker threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns, and Oklahoma State outscored West Virginia 28-10 after halftime. West Virginia ran for 334 yards but threw for 132, and Michael Hawkins Jr. was sacked four times. The Cowboys’ Week 2 win over Oregon looks better every week.

The Heisman board moved. Kamario Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns, including the go-ahead 24-yarder with 3:57 left, as Mississippi State beat Missouri 31-24 to go 4-0. A month ago he was around 150-to-1. DraftKings now has him third at +480, behind Jeremiah Smith (+245) and Darian Mensah (+400). Smith caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns against Illinois, and his 34 career touchdown catches tie David Boston for second in Ohio State history. Chambliss is no longer in the top three.

Power Rankings

Georgia moves up two. Oklahoma came in allowing 7.7 points a game. Georgia led 28-0 at halftime and won by 28 without its top running back, Nate Frazier, who sat with injured ribs. Chris Cole returned a fumble 85 yards for a touchdown. Georgia’s 219 points are the most by the program through four games since 1910. SP+ and FPI both now rate the Bulldogs first in the country. You could make the argument for Georgia at No. 2. We keep Ohio State there because its only loss is by a point at Texas, and Georgia has not played anyone close to that. SP+ ranks the Bulldogs’ schedule 89th.

Florida jumps ten. Four wins, two in the SEC, one on the road at Auburn and one by 24 over the team we had sixth. The Gators have scored at least 40 in every game, the first Florida team to do that since 2001, and Jon Sumrall is the first coach in SEC history with 200 points in his first four games. The models are catching up: SP+ has Florida 12th, FPI tenth and résumé SP+ fifth. Seventh is where the résumé puts them. The next month decides whether it holds: at Missouri on Saturday, at Texas on October 17th and Georgia in Atlanta on October 31st.

Utah rises seven. The Utes have led by 20 or more at halftime of all four games, and they opened Big 12 play with a 31-17 win at Iowa State. SP+ moved them up ten spots to ninth, with the 11th-ranked defense. FPI’s playoff odds now have Utah slightly ahead of Texas Tech, 49.2 percent to 48.3. Utah does not play Tech and does not see BYU until November 7th. We keep them one spot behind the Cougars until then.

Oregon moves up one, and Dante Moore is why it is only one. On merit, a 14-point road win over the team we had 12th is worth more. SP+ has Oregon eighth and FPI ninth. But we do not know when Moore plays again, and the Ducks are off this week. Raiola started two seasons at Nebraska and looked ready on Saturday. We will move Oregon when we know who starts at quarterback against UCLA on October 10th.

Ole Miss falls eight. Two wins over ranked teams got the Rebels to sixth. A 24-point loss to a team favored by 3.5 at kickoff takes them out of the top ten. The defense is the problem. SP+ now ranks it 75th and the team 32nd, and FPI has Ole Miss 19th. Lacy’s shoulder matters. But Florida ran for 302 yards against a defense that allowed 38 to Louisville in Nashville, and that is not an injury. We now have LSU ahead of Ole Miss despite the head-to-head. LSU lost by eight on the road; Ole Miss lost by 24. ESPN’s committee projection keeps the Rebels ahead, and the real committee probably would too. Ole Miss is off, then at Vanderbilt on October 10th.

Iowa climbs three. The 91-yard drive is what people will remember. The more useful fact is that Iowa scored on both red-zone trips and Michigan went 2 of 4. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 with a defense SP+ ranks tenth, and they have won their two real tests by a combined four points. We gave Iowa 20 percent in August. Ohio State comes to Kinnick on Saturday.

USC drops four. The Trojans rallied to tie Oregon with 12:41 left, then never stopped Raiola again. SP+ has USC’s offense third in the country and its defense 49th, down from 35th a week ago. That gap is the team. Lincoln Riley is still looking for the big win, nearly halfway through his fifth season.

Mississippi State enters at 18. Two road wins over power-conference teams, at Minnesota and at South Carolina, and now a home win over ranked Missouri. It was the first win by a ranked Mississippi State team over a ranked opponent since Dak Prescott’s Bulldogs beat Auburn in 2014. Fluff Bothwell ran for 122 yards and caught six passes for 55 more. The defense, 48th in SP+, is the concern. Alabama is next.

Penn State drops four. Up 17-0 at home, the Nittany Lions failed to get a first down on four of their last five possessions. Becht’s 129 passing yards were the story, and Howard’s absence explains some of it. SP+ still likes this team at 15th, on the strength of the 12th-ranked defense. Northwestern on Friday is no gift after what the Wildcats did in Bloomington.

Michigan drops seven. A stuffed fourth-and-1 at the Iowa 18. An interception at the Iowa 2. An unnecessary-roughness flag on third down on Iowa’s final drive. Michigan lost by a point. Running back Jordan Marshall appeared to aggravate an injury, and the line is still without Andrew Sprague. SP+ has the defense ninth and the offense 52nd. The first road game of the season is Saturday at Minnesota.

Texas A&M leaves the ranking. Eleven spots down last week, out this week. The Aggies have lost two straight SEC games, by ten at home and by 29 on the road, and SP+ dropped them 25 spots to 39th.

Texas stays first. Notre Dame and Indiana each slip one as Georgia passes them; Indiana needed Lee Beebe Jr.’s 203 rushing yards to beat Northwestern 29-23 after Turbo Richard was hurt. Miami moves up one as Ole Miss falls. Tennessee slips one as Utah and Iowa pass it, though a three-point loss to the No. 1 team is no demerit. Alabama, LSU, Texas Tech and BYU hold.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 4 AP poll moves Florida to fifth, drops Ole Miss to tenth and brings Mississippi State in at 18th. The real poll was not out at press time. FPI’s post-Week 4 run has Georgia first, Florida tenth and Ole Miss 19th. SP+ as of September 27th has Ole Miss 32nd. We sit between the projected poll and the models on both, with Florida seventh and Ole Miss 14th.

Texas stays first on the best win in the sport. CBS’s overreactions column called the Longhorns a paper tiger and argued they could easily be 2-2. The film supports some of that. Texas ran for 61 yards and converted 3 of 12 third downs in Knoxville, and SP+ has Texas seventh. But SP+ also ranks the Texas résumé third and its schedule fourth-hardest in the country. ESPN’s committee projection keeps Texas first, followed by Ohio State, Georgia, Miami and Notre Dame, and it still has Boise State bumping Oregon out of the bracket.

The Playoff Field

Florida gains 24 points on the week, the biggest rise we have made, and Ole Miss loses 22. Texas moves to 82 and passes Notre Dame; FPI gives the Longhorns 89.6 percent, the highest in the country. Georgia gains seven on a 28-point win over the best defense it has seen. Alabama gains six ahead of a stretch that runs through Starkville and then Georgia at home. Utah gains 16 and Iowa eight. Michigan loses 20, USC 16 and Penn State 14. Indiana gives back four after the Northwestern scare, with Richard and linebacker Rolijah Hardy both hurt. BYU gives back four in its off week as Utah closes in. Texas A&M falls into the field.

The Group of Six rises to 1.10. Boise State won by 25 at Western Michigan, and North Dakota State, 4-0 in its first FBS season, now carries a 28.5 percent playoff chance in FPI. The field grows to 1.39, with Nebraska, UCLA and Pitt all 4-0 and just outside the twenty.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 60 (up 5), Pitt 10 (up 4), Louisville 8 (down 8), Virginia Tech 7 (up 1), SMU 6 (down 2), Virginia 4, Duke 3 (new), Clemson 1 (down 2), field 1 (down 1). Louisville’s home loss to Wake Forest costs it half its number, and the Cardinals go to NC State on Saturday. Friday night in Blacksburg decides who is second. Miami’s only remaining ranked opponent is Notre Dame, which is not a league game.

SEC. Georgia 27 (up 3), Texas 24, Alabama 15 (up 1), Florida 12 (up 8), LSU 9, Ole Miss 5 (down 9), Mississippi State 4 (new), Texas A&M 1 (down 3), Oklahoma 1 (down 2), field 2 (down 2). Georgia moves ahead of Texas for the first time. ESPN’s analytics give the Bulldogs the easiest remaining schedule in the league; they miss Texas, LSU, Tennessee and A&M. Florida has Texas and Georgia in back-to-back games later in October.

Big Ten. Ohio State 35 (up 2), Indiana 25 (down 2), Oregon 16 (up 3), Iowa 8 (new), USC 5 (down 5), Nebraska 3 (new), Penn State 3 (down 4), Michigan 2 (down 4), field 3 (down 1). Oregon’s number assumes Moore comes back. Iowa has a league road win banked and gets Ohio State at home. Ohio State goes to Indiana on October 17th.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30 (down 2), Utah 26 (up 9), BYU 24 (down 3), Oklahoma State 5 (up 2), Houston 4 (down 1), Cincinnati 4 (new), Kansas State 3 (down 3), Arizona 2 (down 1), West Virginia 1 (down 3), field 1. TCU falls into the field after losing to UCF. Tech keeps the top spot on schedule; it plays neither Utah nor BYU. It won 49-14 on Saturday, though Will Hammond threw three interceptions. Cincinnati is 4-0 after beating Kansas State and still has BYU, Tech, Utah and Houston ahead.

Pac-12. Boise State 50 (up 4), Fresno State 15 (up 1), Texas State 11 (up 1), Oregon State 9 (up 2), San Diego State 6 (down 5), Washington State 5 (down 1), Utah State 3, Colorado State 1 (down 2). San Diego State lost 41-16 to Toledo and is 1-3 before its first league game. Boise hosts Utah State on Saturday night.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a fourth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. For the first time, the models split on the top spot.

1. The SEC stays first on results. FPI has eleven SEC teams in its top 25. SP+ has eight, one fewer than the Big Ten, after Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma all fell out. Texas beat Ohio State in Week 2, still the best nonconference win in the sport. Five SEC teams are 4-0: Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Florida and Mississippi State. Four of the top five teams in résumé SP+ are from the SEC. Saturday brings Alabama at Mississippi State, Florida at Missouri and Auburn at Tennessee.
2. The Big Ten has the depth argument this week. SP+ counts nine Big Ten teams in its top 25, FPI eight. Oregon won at USC. Iowa won at Michigan. Wisconsin won at Penn State. UCLA is 4-0 under first-year coach Bob Chesney and routed Maryland in College Park, and Nebraska is 4-0 after winning at Michigan State. Indiana has won 20 straight, the longest active streak in FBS, but needed a two-point stop to get past Northwestern. Against the SEC, the league has Michigan’s 17-10 win over Oklahoma. Against Notre Dame, it is 0-3.
3. The Big 12 holds third. SP+ has four Big 12 teams in its top 25 to the ACC’s three; FPI has it three to two. Utah, Texas Tech and BYU are the top tier, and ESPN’s takeaways column argues the league could put two teams in the field. West Virginia’s win over Virginia in Charlotte is still the head-to-head result between the two leagues. Below the top three it thins. West Virginia lost at home by 17, TCU lost to UCF and is 2-2, and Kansas State lost to Cincinnati.
4. The ACC has Miami and then questions. The Hurricanes beat Central Michigan 52-3 and lead the country in the share of plays that gain ten yards or more. Louisville, which we called clearly second a week ago, lost at home to Wake Forest. The new second tier is unbeaten: Pitt, Virginia Tech and Duke are all 4-0, and Pitt has climbed 17 spots to 20th in SP+. Wake Forest is 12-5 under Jake Dickert. Clemson is 3-1 but lost 51-10 at LSU in the opener and ranks 91st in SP+ offense.
5. The Pac-12 has Boise State and a lot of losses. The Broncos won 32-7 at Western Michigan, the reigning MAC champion. San Diego State lost to Toledo, Colorado State gave up 59 to UTSA, and Washington State lost to Arizona. SP+ ranks Boise 47th, and no other league team is inside the top 60. ESPN’s committee projection still gives Boise the Group of Six bid, but North Dakota State of the Mountain West is now close behind in FPI.

The Week 5 Board

All times Eastern. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 4 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. Pitt at Virginia Tech has the model and the market naming different favorites for the third straight week, and the line has moved further toward Virginia Tech since we took it. ESPN is also more confident than the market in Alabama and Florida. Percentages of 74.2 and 70.2 imply more than 4.5 points.

Predictions

Virginia Tech 24, Pittsburgh 21. In June, SP+ had Virginia Tech 33rd and Pitt 41st. Four games later it has Pitt 20th and Virginia Tech 28th, and ESPN makes Pitt a 57.8 percent favorite. The market has gone the other way. Pitt’s defense ranks 15th in SP+ and has allowed 14 points or fewer in all four games. Mason Heintschel has 13 touchdown passes, and last season Pitt won five straight after he took over as a freshman. Virginia Tech needed everything to beat Boston College 21-14 on Saturday. Friday night in Lane Stadium is worth something, and this should be close. Virginia Tech wins, Pitt covers. Under.

Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 10. Notre Dame had the highest number in our August playoff table, 78 percent, and nothing since has argued with it. The Irish have won 14 straight by double digits, tied for the longest FBS streak in ten seasons. CJ Carr has one interception all year, and SP+ ranks the defense second in the country. North Carolina ranks 88th in SP+ offense and scored 15 against TCU and 20 against Clemson. Notre Dame covers. Under.

Alabama 34, Mississippi State 27. We had Alabama at 40 percent in August. Keelon Russell is the reason it is 62 now. Alabama has scored 40 or more in all four games, and Russell accounted for five touchdowns against South Carolina. Kamario Taylor has 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions, and Mississippi State has gained 400 yards in four straight games. The Bulldogs’ defense is 48th in SP+. Alabama’s is 13th, but it let Florida State convert 8 of 15 third downs. ESPN’s 74.2 percent is more confident than the line, and we lean that way. Alabama covers. Over.

Ohio State 27, Iowa 16. Ohio State was No. 1 in the preseason poll, and we gave it 76 percent in August, second only to Notre Dame. Jeremiah Smith just had 217 yards and four touchdowns. But Illinois ran for 199 yards at six a carry on this defense. Iowa’s defense is tenth in SP+ and its offense 51st, and it has already won two games by a combined four points. Kinnick at 3:30 will not be comfortable. Both models put this around 11 or 12 points, under the 14. Ohio State wins, Iowa covers. Under.

Florida 31, Missouri 27. Florida was not in our August playoff table. Now it sits at 48 percent with the most productive offense in the SEC. Missouri’s defense ranks 14th in SP+, and the Tigers led Mississippi State 24-17 in the fourth quarter before losing. Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns in Starkville, and Cayden Lee caught 11 passes for 156. Florida’s defense is 31st. This is also the game after the biggest win of the Sumrall era, with Texas two weeks out. SP+ makes it close; FPI makes it a touchdown. Florida wins, Missouri covers. Over.

Miami 31, Clemson 13. We gave Miami 71 percent in August; it is 80 now. Clemson opened with a 51-10 loss at LSU and has not scored more than 28 since. Its offense ranks 91st in SP+, and Miami’s defense ranks eighth. Darian Mensah is second in the Heisman odds, and Miami leads the country in explosive plays. Malachi Toney limped off at Wake Forest on September 18th, and his status is worth watching. Death Valley at night will keep it close for a half. Miami covers. Under.

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Quick Hits

Our Week 3 picks went 4-4 straight up, 1-6 against the number and 4-2 on totals. Louisville was the only clean sweep. Alabama won by 14 on a 17.5-point line, and Texas Tech won by two laying ten.Three weeks in, we are 10-10 straight up and 6-12-1 against the number.

Chambliss wins the rematch. Kiffin plucked Trinidad Chambliss out of Division II Ferris State and made him a star. On Saturday Chambliss beat him. Ole Miss led 24-7 at the half, LSU scored 17 straight to tie it with 11:21 left, and Chambliss answered with a 75-yard drive capped by a 14-yard keeper against the grain. LSU then went 69 yards in 13 plays and had fourth-and-goal at the 6. Leavitt’s throw was tipped at the line and intercepted in the end zone. Ole Miss is now 24-1 at home since 2023, the best mark in FBS. Chambliss is playing this season because he won his eligibility case in court.

We were wrong about LSU, and it was not the injury. Leavitt was listed doubtful on Wednesday, came off the report Friday night and played. He threw for 153, ran for 63 and accounted for two touchdowns. We took LSU on the strength of a defense that had held Clemson to ten. Ole Miss had 24 by halftime.

Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21, at Kyle Field. The Aggies were 17-point favorites. Kentucky scored 28 unanswered and outgained A&M 196 yards to 20 in the third quarter. Mark Stoops won one road game against a top-10 team in twelve seasons. Will Stein, who was calling Oregon’s offense a year ago, did it in his first try. His defensive coordinator, Jay Bateman, ran A&M’s defense the two previous seasons, and Marcel Reed finished 26 of 49 with two interceptions. Mike Elko told Stein in the handshake line that Kentucky had beaten his team up. A&M has lost three of its last five games dating to last season.

NC State found a way. Up 31-28 with six seconds left and fourth down at its own 5, NC State sent CJ Bailey out to run around in the end zone and take a safety. He got hit, the ball came out, and Vanderbilt fell on it for a 35-31 win. NC State had not trailed all day. Bailey is a three-year starter. Dave Doeren, in his 14th season, said afterward the ball simply had to be protected. After a lopsided opening loss to Virginia, the Wolfpack are 1-2, and Doeren’s name is starting to show up in hot-seat conversations. Vanderbilt is 3-0 behind freshman Jared Curtis.

Keelon Russell is making the throws now, not just the runs. Tuscaloosa booed the playcalling in the first half as Florida State went up 21-6. Then Alabama scored touchdowns on five straight possessions. Russell threw for 320 yards and three scores without an interception and broke a 57-yard touchdown run. He lifts this offense more than any quarterback DeBoer has had here. The defense is the worry. Florida State converted 8 of 15 third downs against a unit that had allowed 1 of 23, and Duce Robinson caught six for 135. Alabama has now won 88 straight home games against unranked teams.

Florida can score. Jon Sumrall’s Gators have averaged 54 points through three games, the most by any Florida team in program history over that stretch. Last season Florida never scored more than 29 in an SEC game. Jadan Baugh has run for at least 136 yards every week, and Aaron Philo has thrown for 200-plus every week. The 44 points at Auburn were the most by a Jordan-Hare visitor in seven years. Now it gets real: five of Florida’s next six opponents are ranked, starting with Ole Miss on Saturday.

West Virginia is 3-0. Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in from Oklahoma in January. On Saturday he went 10 of 17 for 190 and two scores and ran 18 times for 123 and three more as a double-digit underdog beat Virginia 38-27 in Charlotte. About two-thirds of the 39,377 in the building were West Virginia fans, and Rich Rodriguez said it felt like a home game. Hawkins isn’t a polished passer yet, but he’s fast and he’s fearless. Oklahoma State visits Morgantown on Saturday.

Mensah is the Heisman leader. He completed his first 24 passes at Wake Forest, an ACC single-game record, and his 35 straight across two games were two shy of the FBS record. Through three games he has 873 yards, 11 touchdowns, no interceptions and an 89.9 percent completion rate. He may not even be the best player on his offense. Malachi Toney has 28 catches for 444 yards and five scores. Toney limped off Friday, Mark Fletcher Jr. was banged up, and running back CharMar Brown was carted off with a knee injury.

Hot seats. Rutgers is 0-3 for the first time since 2008. Two weeks after managing 346 yards against UMass, the Scarlet Knights put up 460 on USC, and still lost. Florida State looked like a bowl team in Tuscaloosa, but Ashton Daniels threw three interceptions, the Seminoles are 1-2, and the school fired its athletic director this month. Arkansas trustees called for a review of the program’s competitiveness the day before a 45-17 home loss to Georgia, the Razorbacks’ twelfth straight SEC defeat.

Power Rankings

Ole Miss moves up four. The Rebels own two wins over ranked teams, Louisville in Nashville and LSU at home, and nobody else can say that. Chambliss is calm when the pocket isn’t. He led the winning drive after Kewan Lacy left with a shoulder injury, and Lacy’s X-rays were negative. The preview noted Ole Miss led in the second half of every game it played last season, and it held a second-half lead again on Saturday. The schedule does not ease: at Florida Saturday, at Vanderbilt after the bye, at Texas on October 24th, Georgia on November 7th.

Miami slips one. Ole Miss passes the Hurricanes, and Friday was the first time Miami looked mortal. After Mensah’s 24-for-24 start, the offense went three-and-out four straight times and the defense had to win the game. Toney and Fletcher are both being evaluated. Central Michigan visits before the trip to Clemson on October 3rd.

LSU drops two. A 17-point comeback in the most hostile building on the schedule, lost at the goal line, is not a collapse. The injuries are the concern. Trey’Dez Green hurt his right knee on a catch in Ole Miss territory, and Dashawn Spears left with a lower leg injury. Leavitt has four turnovers in two games after missing spring practice, and no receiver has emerged as the clear top target. The math is now unforgiving. No three-loss team has made the 12-team field as an at-large in three seasons, and the loser of Saturday’s game in Baton Rouge will be 2-2.

Florida enters at 17. A road SEC win in a loud building, with a balanced offense and a running back who looks like a problem for anyone. Baugh carried 26 times Saturday and got stronger as the game went on. The preview flagged Florida as the biggest climber in the CBS 138. The next six weeks will tell us how far.

Texas A&M drops eleven. The preview asked whether eleven wins was the new baseline or the outlier. A home loss as a 17-point favorite to a Kentucky team that lost by 28 the week before is a real answer. The Aggies replaced ten draftees and a rebuilt line, and it shows. After the trip to LSU, five of their last eight opponents are currently ranked.

Oklahoma leaves the ranking. The Sooners needed a fourth-down stop in the red zone to beat New Mexico 14-6, a week after losing 17-10 at Michigan. That is 24 points in two games for a team with the fourth-hardest schedule in the country, and the hardest part starts in Athens.

Alabama holds at eighth. Texas Tech, BYU, USC, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Iowa and Utah each move up one as a consequence of the moves above.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 3 AP poll keeps Texas first, moves Ole Miss to fourth, drops Texas A&M out and brings Florida in at 19th. ESPN’s FPI, updated September 20th, has Ohio State and Texas tied at the top with identical ratings, Texas A&M 12th and Ole Miss 13th. We sit between the projected poll and the model on both, with Ole Miss sixth and A&M 20th. Oregon lands in the same place: 21st in the projected poll, ninth in FPI, 14th here.

Texas stays first on its defense, which held UTSA to 143 yards. Arch Manning was 16 of 32, and Colin Simmons left in a walking boot that Steve Sarkisian called precautionary. You could make the argument for Ole Miss at No. 1 on résumé, and CBS’s overreactions column did exactly that. ESPN’s committee projection has the Rebels second. It also leaves Texas Tech out of the bracket for a second straight week, with BYU as the projected Big 12 champion, and ESPN’s buy-sell column is selling the Red Raiders outright.

The Playoff Field

Ole Miss gains fourteen points on the week and Texas A&M loses twenty-four. Oregon comes down six more before its trip to the Coliseum, and a November trip to Columbus is still ahead. USC drops eight after allowing 460 yards to a winless Rutgers team, with Penn State and Indiana still to come on the road. Texas moves to 78 on the best win in the sport, and FPI gives the Longhorns the highest playoff probability in the country. Penn State, Tennessee and Utah rise on three comfortable wins apiece. Texas Tech gives back six. It has no ranked opponent left on its schedule, which means no chance to impress anyone before the Big 12 title game. Alabama gains four. The field grows to 1.34, with Louisville, Mississippi State, Pitt and Oklahoma all sitting just outside the twenty.

Notre Dame and Miami are three points apart in our table, and FPI orders them the same way, 80.8 percent to 77.6. ESPN’s committee projection has Miami ahead, fifth to sixth. The Irish have Purdue, North Carolina and Stanford next. They meet Miami in South Bend on November 7th.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 55 (up 4), Louisville 16 (up 4), SMU 8 (down 5), Pitt 6 (up 3), Virginia Tech 6 (up 1), Virginia 4 (down 3), Clemson 3 (down 3), field 2 (down 1). Louisville now owns the head-to-head with SMU, has no ranked team left on its schedule, and does not play Miami in the regular season. SMU drops five after running for 257 yards and still losing the turnover battle 3-0. Virginia does not play a league game until October 3rd at Florida State.

SEC. Texas 24 (up 3), Georgia 24, Alabama 14 (up 1), Ole Miss 14 (up 6), LSU 9 (down 5), Texas A&M 4 (down 8), Florida 4 (new), Oklahoma 3 (down 1), field 4. Texas draws level with Georgia, and FPI has the Longhorns slightly ahead. Ole Miss holds the tiebreaker over LSU and still has to go to Austin. LSU loses five on the tiebreaker and on Green’s knee. A&M loses eight, with Baton Rouge and Tuscaloosa still ahead and Texas at the end.

Big Ten. Ohio State 33 (up 1), Indiana 27, Oregon 13 (down 2), USC 10 (down 2), Penn State 7 (up 3), Michigan 6 (down 1), field 4 (up 1). Twenty-three points of this table meet at the Coliseum on Saturday night.

Big 12. Texas Tech 32 (down 4), BYU 27 (up 1), Utah 17 (up 4), Kansas State 6 (up 1), Houston 5 (down 3), West Virginia 4 (new), Arizona 3 (down 1), Oklahoma State 3, TCU 2 (down 1), field 1 (down 1). Tech won, but for the second straight week it allowed more yards than in any game last season. Tech misses both BYU and Utah in the regular season, which was always the argument for this number and still is. BYU is 11-2 on the road since 2024. Utah is 14-2 since Devon Dampier arrived and has outscored three opponents 142-24. Houston falls to five; the Cougars’ close-game luck finally ran the other way.

Pac-12. Boise State 46 (up 2), Fresno State 14 (up 3), San Diego State 11 (down 3), Texas State 10 (down 2), Oregon State 7 (up 3), Washington State 6 (down 2), Colorado State 3 (up 1), Utah State 3 (down 2). Boise needed the fourth quarter to beat an FCS team, and the Broncos still gain, because San Diego State lost at home to James Madison.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a third week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12.

1. The SEC. FPI has eleven SEC teams among its top 24, and the middle of the league got stronger on Saturday. Kentucky won at Kyle Field. Florida won at Auburn. Mississippi State trailed South Carolina 13-0 after one quarter, then went on a 41-10 run to win 41-34. Kamario Taylor threw four touchdowns, and the Bulldogs are 3-0 with Missouri and Alabama coming to Starkville next. Vanderbilt and Missouri are unbeaten too. Saturday is the fullest SEC day of the season so far: Texas at Tennessee, Ole Miss at Florida, Oklahoma at Georgia, Texas A&M at LSU and Missouri at Mississippi State.

2. The Big Ten stays second on its top two. FPI still rates Ohio State first in the country at 2-1, and Jeremiah Smith, three games into his junior year, is already the program’s career receiving leader. Indiana has two straight shutouts and has not played anyone. USC is 4-0 and fumbled a snap in the victory formation at Rutgers. Michigan trailed a UTEP team that had lost 51-0 to Oklahoma before waking up. Northwestern beat Colorado 41-7. League play starts in earnest this weekend.

3. The Big 12 keeps third on the head-to-head, and that is now the whole argument. West Virginia beat a ranked Virginia team in Charlotte. Houston came within a two-point try in Lubbock. BYU and Utah look like the class of the league. Below that it was a rough weekend. Colorado, which beat Georgia Tech in the opener, lost 41-7 at Northwestern. Kansas lost to Arizona State in London. Cincinnati needed a 28-point second half to beat Miami of Ohio. FPI has three Big 12 teams and three ACC teams in its top 25, and the best ACC team sits nine spots above the best Big 12 team.

4. The ACC has the best team of the two. Miami showed on Friday that its defense can win a game when the offense stalls. Louisville is clearly second. Keyjuan Brown is explosive, the offense has not turned it over, and the defense, which ranks in the triple digits nationally after allowing 41 to Ole Miss and 31 to SMU, is the one thing between the Cardinals and a date with Miami in the ACC title game. Behind them it thins fast. Virginia lost, NC State lost in the worst possible way, Clemson needed a comeback against North Carolina, and Florida State is 1-2.

5. The Pac-12 had the weekend the Group of Six has been having all year. San Diego State lost at home to James Madison. Colorado State lost to BYU, its 28th straight loss to a ranked team. Utah State was shut out by Utah. Boise State was tied 24-24 with an FCS team with ten minutes left before Dylan Riley broke an 83-yard touchdown run to finish a 198-yard night. The Broncos are still the league’s best team by a distance, and ESPN’s committee projection still gives them the Group of Six bid. They go to Western Michigan on Saturday.

The Week 4 Board

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 3 AP poll. Networks for Wake Forest at Louisville and the two 3:30 SEC games had not been announced at press time. Two games have the model and the market naming different favorites: Oregon at USC and Oklahoma State at West Virginia.

Predictions

Texas 24, Tennessee 20. The Texas defense held UTSA to 143 yards and has not let anyone find a rhythm since halftime against Ohio State. The offense is the question it was in August. Texas backs scored six rushing touchdowns all of last season, and on Saturday Manning ran nine times, none of them designed runs. Tennessee hired Jim Knowles to fix its defense, and this is the first ranked opponent it has seen. Simmons’s boot is worth watching all week. Texas wins, Tennessee covers. Under.

Louisville 31, Wake Forest 21. Louisville’s backs are the most explosive in the ACC. Isaac Brown led the nation at 8.75 yards per carry last season, and Keyjuan Brown just went for 163 on ten carries. Louisville has not turned it over all year. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed 72 points in two real games, though, and Wake Forest has won 11 of its last 16 under Jake Dickert. Gio Lopez threw for 312 against Miami. Seven of Louisville’s eight losses over the previous two seasons came by one score, and this program does not do comfortable. Louisville wins, Wake Forest covers. Under.

Florida 31, Ole Miss 28. Ole Miss comes off the most emotional game on its schedule and goes on the road to the Swamp. Lacy’s X-rays were negative, but he did not finish the LSU game. Florida has scored 54 a game and Baugh is the best back Ole Miss will see before Texas. Chambliss was second in FBS in passing grade under pressure last season and will get his points. The Rebels’ defense gave up 17 straight to LSU before finding its footing, and that is the part that worries us. Florida covers. Over.

Georgia 27, Oklahoma 10. This was Oklahoma’s circle game in August. It no longer looks like a coin flip. Oklahoma has 24 points in its last two games. Georgia ran on 36 of its first 42 plays at Arkansas, and Gunner Stockton is throwing about 15 times a game. That is the old Georgia problem, 126th nationally last season in share of passing yards thrown ten or more yards downfield. It will be enough here. Oklahoma led the nation with 63 tackles for loss last year and will keep it from getting silly. Georgia covers. Under.

Michigan 20, Iowa 16. The lowest total we have printed all season, and it has earned it. Iowa lost four games last season by fifteen points combined and still has the best offensive line on the field. Michigan has the better front seven and held Oklahoma to ten in this building two weeks ago. It also trailed UTEP in the second quarter. Bryce Underwood isn’t a finished product, but he’s the most dangerous player on the field. Iowa does not lose by a lot. Michigan wins, Iowa covers. Under.

West Virginia 31, Oklahoma State 27. ESPN makes West Virginia a 59.7 percent favorite, and the market makes them a home underdog. We side with the model. This was our most contrarian preseason call: Drew Mestemaker led FBS with 4,379 passing yards at North Texas, and Caleb Hawkins had the best rushing grade in the country. Oklahoma State has since lost to Tulsa and beaten Oregon, and nobody knows which one is real. Michael Hawkins is the best player in this game, and Morgantown at night is a hard place to find out. The upset. Over.

LSU 27, Texas A&M 20. The loser is 2-2 and out of margin. A&M has averaged 7.5 regular-season wins since joining the SEC, and last season’s eleven look more like the exception every week. LSU may be without Green, and Leavitt has to stop giving the ball away. Tiger Stadium at night is enough for LSU to win it. Not by nine. ESPN has LSU at 63.2 percent, well short of what an 8.5-point line implies, and we agree with the discount. LSU wins, A&M covers. Under.

Oregon 34, USC 31. Last year USC allowed the fewest air yards per attempt in FBS. This year it has allowed 30 or more in three of four games and gave up 168 rushing yards to Rutgers. Oregon brings the defensive line we ranked first in the country in August. Lanning is 5-7 against top-15 teams, and four of those five wins came by a touchdown or less. This is the game the preview said would put Oregon’s path to a top seed in its own hands. Dante Moore turned down the NFL to play games like this one. Oregon wins outright. Over.

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