The cliche is true: this is a week-to-week league. Underdogs won seven of the first 15 games in Week 3, per CBS Sports, and Chicago made it eight of 16 on Monday night with its third-string quarterback. Twelve of Sunday’s games were decided by eight points or fewer, tying the record for a single day, per ESPN Research. Very few teams are overwhelmingly better than the rest head-to-head. What decides most Sundays is who matches up with whom, and who is healthy.

The matchup side showed up everywhere. Pittsburgh’s offense came in 31st in DVOA and put 14 points on Cincinnati in the first quarter, going deep against man coverage. Cleveland took away Bryce Young’s deep ball with disguised pressure and won a game in which it gained 154 yards through three quarters.

Week 3 Review

Each game lists the line, our pick, what we expected to decide it and what did. Lines are DraftKings at kickoff where we have them.

Thursday

Falcons 35, Packers 14

Atlanta had not run a red-zone play in two weeks with Cooper Rush at quarterback. With Michael Penix Jr. back from his November ACL tear, the Falcons fell behind 7-0, scored 27 straight, and outrushed Green Bay 242 to 17. Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns, and Drake London caught nine passes for a career-high 194.

Green Bay’s penalties turned it. A roughing call on Brenton Cox Jr. wiped out a third-and-11 stop, and Robinson went 55 yards on the next snap. Jordan Love threw 53 times behind a line starting rookie Jager Burton at left guard. It was the Packers’ first home-opener loss since 2012.

Packers -4.5 at kickoff (-7 when we published), total 43.5. ESPN had Green Bay at 74.1%. Our Pick: Packers.

Expected: Green Bay’s penalties and inexperienced line, against an Atlanta passing game that had been historically bad with Rush. What decided it: Penix changed Atlanta’s offense, and Green Bay’s penalties did the rest.

Sunday Early

Lions 31, Jets 24

We said this would be closer than the line, and it was tied at 24 midway through the fourth. The Jets erased a 14-point deficit on Geno Smith touchdowns to Jeremy Ruckert and Garrett Wilson and a two-point pass to Sterling Shepard. Smith finished 31 of 37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns, and rookie Kenyon Sadiq caught seven for 105.

Then two blown coverages let Detroit go 65 yards in four plays, capped by Jahmyr Gibbs’ 11-yard catch, his third touchdown. Chuck Clark’s strip-sack at the Detroit 28 ended it. Jared Goff has a touchdown pass in 26 straight games, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is the first Lion since Calvin Johnson in 2011 with a touchdown catch in each of the first three games, per the Lions.

Lions -6.5 when we published, total 48.5. ESPN had Detroit at 75.5%. Our Pick: Lions.

Expected: Whether Kelvin Sheppard blitzed the way he did against Allen, and a game closer than the line. What decided it: It was closer, tied at 24 in the fourth. Detroit’s pressure ended it: five sacks, per CBS Sports, the last a blitzing Chuck Clark’s strip-sack.

Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10

Kansas City scored touchdowns on its first two drives, then spent most of the afternoon letting Miami hang around. It was 14-10 going into the fourth. Miami failed on fourth down at its own 48, and Patrick Mahomes found Travis Kelce for an 11-yard touchdown with 2:55 left. Kelce’s 48-yard catch on the first play and that touchdown were his only targets.

Kenneth Walker III scored on a run and a catch and leads the league in rushing. Mahomes went 20 of 24. Miami has still not led for a single snap this season. It also lost De’Von Achane to a torn ACL on the opening drive, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.

Chiefs -11.5 when we published, total 45.5. ESPN had Kansas City at 85.8%. Our Pick: Chiefs.

Expected: Miami, last in DVOA, unable to hold a lead or the ball. What decided it: Kansas City’s first two drives. After that Miami’s defense held up, and the Chiefs needed a fourth-down stop and a late touchdown to pull away.

Steelers 30, Bengals 27

Aaron Rodgers was 0 for 9 on throws of 20-plus air yards in the first two weeks, and went 2 of 3 for 61 yards and two touchdowns on them in the first quarter, per Next Gen Stats. Pittsburgh started Brock Hoffman at right guard and first-round pick Max Iheanachor at right tackle. Rodgers held the ball an average of 3.19 seconds, his longest as a Steeler, per ESPN’s Benjamin Solak.

Jaylen Warren had a career-high 176 scrimmage yards with Rico Dowdle inactive. He gained 69 yards before contact after totaling -14 in the first two weeks, per Next Gen Stats. Joe Burrow completed his first 14 passes and threw three touchdowns. Cincinnati’s special teams cost it 10 points, on a roughing-the-punter penalty and Ke’Shawn Williams’ muffed punt. Chris Boswell’s 33-yarder put Pittsburgh ahead with 2:18 left, and Derrick Harmon’s strip-sack of Burrow sealed it.

Bengals -3.5 when we published, total 42.5. ESPN had Cincinnati at 61.1%. Our Pick: Bengals.

Expected: Whichever line held up, with Cincinnati’s front, tied for the league lead in sacks, against the Steelers offense. What decided it: The lines, as expected, but Pittsburgh’s. The rebuilt right side kept Dexter Lawrence quiet, Harmon had the only sack, and Cincinnati’s special teams gave away 10 points.

Colts 19, Texans 17

This was the game our 10-7 Houston projection could not survive losing, and Houston lost it. Spencer Shrader hurt his groin on the opening kickoff and still made four field goals, the last from 53 yards with 16 seconds left.

Houston gained 223 yards without Nico Collins or right guard Ed Ingram. It failed on fourth-and-1, then kicked a field goal on fourth-and-4 inside the 10 down 16-7, a call Solak says cost 3.6% in win probability. The defense forced three turnovers. Will Anderson Jr. had nine pressures and two strip-sacks, per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, and the second set up Woody Marks’ go-ahead run with 1:48 left. The Colts needed 37 seconds and three plays to answer.

Texans -3 when we published, total 43.5. ESPN had Houston at 52.5%. Our Pick: Texans.

Expected: Houston’s red-zone offense, 32nd since the start of last season, and Collins’ hamstring. What decided it: Collins’ absence, yes: 223 yards. The red zone wasn’t the problem (2 of 3). Getting there was, along with two fourth-down decisions and Shrader’s leg.

Bills 24, Chargers 16

Buffalo turned it over five times and won. James Cook fumbled on the first snap, Josh Allen threw two interceptions to rookie safety Genesis Smith and lost a fumble, and Dalton Kincaid fumbled at the Chargers’ 17. It was Buffalo’s first win at -4 or worse in turnover differential since 1997, and the opposing quarterback that day was Jim Harbaugh, per ESPN’s Nick Suss.

Harbaugh’s Chargers turned five takeaways into 10 points. They have now lost three games since 2015 in which they won the turnover margin by four or more; the rest of the league has lost two, per Solak. They kicked a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 3 while tied, which Barnwell says cost 5.8% in win probability, then had to go for fourth-and-10 later. C.J. Gardner-Johnson intercepted Justin Herbert at the goal line, Allen scored the go-ahead touchdown with 7:35 left, and Cook added another. Cook ran for 154 yards, 108 of them on man-blocking concepts, per Next Gen Stats. Greg Rousseau tied Bruce Smith’s team record with five sacks through three games.

Bills -7 when we published), total 50.5. ESPN had Buffalo at 78.9%. Our Pick: Bills.

Expected: Buffalo’s offense, best in DVOA, against a Chargers team with 13 offensive penalties, seven fumbles and a rattled quarterback. What decided it: The turnovers went the other way; Buffalo committed five. The Chargers’ self-inflicted problems still decided it, through penalties and two field goals where the math said go for it.

Jaguars 35, Patriots 6

Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdowns, all in the red zone. Drake Maye threw two interceptions, including Travis Hunter’s first career pick on third-and-goal from the 2, and lost a fumble when the ball slipped out of his hand. He has one touchdown pass and six interceptions, and his seven turnovers lead the league.

Andy Borregales missed from 38. Mack Hollins’ taunting penalty turned a fourth-and-1 conversion into a field goal. Christian Barmore and Carlton Davis were both hurt and both returned; guard Greg Van Roten did not. Jacksonville has an interception in eight straight games, the league’s longest active streak, per the Jaguars.

Jaguars -3 when we published, total 45.5. ESPN had Jacksonville at 57.5%. Our Pick: Jaguars.

Expected: The interior, Barmore and Milton Williams against Lawrence, plus New England’s attrition in the heat. What decided it: Maye. His three turnovers became 14 Jacksonville points. The pressure that mattered was on Maye, 11 times in the first half per ESPN’s Mike Reiss, from a front ranked 30th in pass-rush win rate.

Giants 12, Titans 7

We took Tennessee on Jaxson Dart’s injury, and the Giants won with Jameis Winston in a nor’easter. Dominic Zvada kicked four field goals. Tennessee went three-and-out on its first five possessions and did not get a first down until late in the third, per ESPN’s Turron Davenport. Chimere Dike fumbled the opening kickoff.

Cam Ward missed an open Carnell Tate in the end zone, hit Wan’Dale Robinson for the only touchdown with 5:35 left, then threw an interception to Jevon Holland on first-and-goal with 17 seconds left and two timeouts. The Giants lost Brian Burns to a torn ACL; he is out for the season. Jeffery Simmons had a sack and seven tackles in the first half.

Giants -2.5 at kickoff (-3 when we published, -6 at open), total 37.5 (40.5 when we published). ESPN had Tennessee at 54.1%. Our Pick: Titans.

Expected: Dart’s knee. We called it a tossup taken on the injury alone. What decided it: Not Dart. The weather, a Giants run game that gained 138 yards, and Ward’s misses in the red zone.

Commanders 33, Seahawks 31

The biggest upset of the season. Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns and ran for the clinching first down on third-and-7. Seattle outgained Washington but gave the ball away three times, and Washington scored 21 points off them. Rookie Sonny Styles had an interception and a forced fumble, the first rookie linebacker to do both in a game since 2018, per Solak. Kain Medrano, playing because Leo Chenal was carted off with a neck injury, returned a Sam Darnold interception 50 yards for the winning points.

Darnold threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns in his return, but Seattle ran for 44 yards and came away empty on three straight throws from the Washington 2 before half. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 10 for 128 and two scores and joined Jerry Rice (1989) as the only players with 120 yards and a touchdown in each of their team’s first three games. Seattle’s 12-game winning streak is over, and so is its run without allowing a 25-yard play: Terry McLaurin’s 30-yard touchdown ended it. Chenal was at the hospital with feeling in his extremities, per Dan Quinn.

Seahawks -6.5 when we published, total 39.5. ESPN had Seattle at 67.2%. Our Pick: Seahawks.

Expected: Mariota’s first start against the only defense yet to allow a 25-yard play, in the lowest total on the board. What decided it: Seattle’s three turnovers, worth 21 Washington points. The teams scored 64.

Browns 21, Panthers 18

Carolina settled for four Ryan Fitzgerald field goals and went 0 for 3 on fourth down, which is how it led by only five after John Metchie III’s touchdown with 4:25 left. Deshaun Watson then threw an interception in the end zone, had it erased by a roughing penalty on Bobby Okereke, and hit Harold Fannin Jr. for a 14-yard touchdown with 1:48 left. Ronnie Hickman’s interception finished it.

Our Match-Up to Watch went Cleveland’s way. Young went 2 of 6 on deep throws after 7 of 11 in the first two weeks, per Barnwell, and was pressured on more than half his dropbacks for much of the game. Mason Graham has four sacks in three games. Carolina lost Jalen Coker and Mike Jackson during the game.

Panthers -3 when we published, total 42.5. ESPN had Carolina at 63.5%. Our Pick: Panthers.

Match-Up we named: Young’s 8.0 yards per dropback against Cleveland. What decided it: That matchup, the other way. Cleveland took away the deep ball, and Carolina’s three failed fourth downs left the door open for Watson.

Sunday Late

Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16

Minnesota scored on an 86-yard Myles Price punt return and a 41-yard Kyler Murray pass to Jordan Addison, and Will Reichard kicked from 54, 56 and 43. That was enough. Kyle Van Noy had three of Minnesota’s six sacks, and Tampa went 2 of 17 on third down. A Luke Goedeke hold wiped out an 85-yard Chris Godwin Jr. touchdown.

Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb late and has an MRI Monday. Justin Jefferson left in the first quarter with a right ankle injury. The Vikings are 3-0 and have won eight straight dating to last season.

Vikings -1.5 when we publishe), total 42.5. ESPN had Minnesota at 52.2%. Our Pick: Vikings.

Expected: Minnesota’s blitz against a line that had allowed seven sacks, Murray upgrading the offense, and the Tampa heat. What decided it: The pass rush (six sacks) and special teams. Murray did not upgrade the offense once Jefferson left, and the heat never showed up.

Raiders 35, Saints 27

New Orleans led 27-16 in the third quarter behind four Tyler Shough touchdown passes, then turned it over four times in the fourth. The first came on a Malcolm Koonce strip-sack that stood on review. Kirk Cousins threw three touchdowns and has nine through three games. Brock Bowers made his season debut with 10 catches for 116 yards and the clinching touchdown.

The six tight-end touchdowns tied the NFL record for a game, per Solak. Las Vegas is 3-0.

Saints -3 when we published, total 43.5. ESPN had New Orleans at 64.3%. Our Pick: Saints.

Match-Up we named: Shough, sacked the second-most in the league, against a Raiders rush tied for the lead, with Kelvin Banks Jr. out. What decided it: Exactly that. Koonce’s strip-sack started four fourth-quarter turnovers, and Banks’ replacement, Asim Richards, was beaten on two of them, per ESPN’s Katherine Terrell.

Ravens 34, Cowboys 31

Tyler Loop’s 56-yard field goal as time expired won it in Rio, set up by Lamar Jackson’s throw to Zay Flowers with seven seconds left and a timeout with one. Derrick Henry passed Eric Dickerson for ninth on the career rushing list. Full review in our Ravens piece.

Ravens -3 when we published, total 52.5. ESPN had Baltimore at 53.9%. Our Pick: Ravens.

Expected: Baltimore’s run blocking against Dallas’ run defense, Jackson’s protection, and the field. What decided it: The run game scored twice early and failed in short yardage late. Jackson won it in the fourth quarter. The field held up.

49ers 36, Cardinals 30

Kyle Shanahan opened with a hook-and-ladder on third-and-12: Brock Purdy to Mike Evans, lateral to Deebo Samuel, 82 yards. Purdy threw four touchdowns and tied Steve Young’s team record with nine touchdown passes through three games. San Francisco led 23-6, then lost Evans (ribs), Trent Williams (stinger) and Dre Greenlaw (quad), with Nick Bosa already out.

Arizona got within 29-27, helped by a muffed punt and two missed Eddy Pineiro extra points. George Kittle’s second touchdown and Samuel’s onside-kick recovery closed it.

49ers -8.5 when we published, total 47.5. ESPN had San Francisco at 90.3%. Our Pick: 49ers.

Expected: San Francisco’s DVOA and Purdy, against an offense that gained 151 yards the week before. What decided it: Purdy, as expected. Arizona scoring 30 after San Francisco’s injuries was not.

Sunday Night

Broncos 30, Rams 26

The Rams led 16-0 at halftime and outgained Denver 482 to 257, per CBS Sports. Talanoa Hufanga dropped two interceptions, then returned one 66 yards for a touchdown with 4:49 left and caught another in the end zone on the final play. Bo Nix scored the winner from inches out with 47 seconds left, after a pass interference call on Justin Wallace.

Matthew Stafford threw for 390 yards without Puka Nacua. Davante Adams caught seven for 137. The Rams were 1 of 4 in the red zone.

Rams -2.5 when we published, total 45.5. ESPN had the Rams at 65.1%. Our Pick: Rams.

Expected: The Rams looking like themselves against a Denver run defense allowing 157.5 yards a game. What decided it: The Rams did look like themselves for a half, and gained 482 yards. Red-zone trips (1 of 4), Stafford’s pick-six and Hufanga decided it.

Monday Night

Bears 27, Eagles 7

Case Keenum made his first start in almost three years, with Caleb Williams hurt and Tyson Bagent cleared from the concussion protocol only on Sunday. Keenum went 24 of 34 for 247 yards and two touchdowns, a shovel pass to Luther Burden and a 41-yarder to a wide-open Kalif Raymond. He also scored on a 1-yard run to finish a 13-play drive that took more than eight minutes. Ben Johnson credited Keenum’s command of the offense.

Philadelphia turned it over three times and still has no takeaways this season. Jalen Hurts was pulled for a concussion check after a late hit in the second quarter, and Andy Dalton threw an end-zone interception to rookie Dillon Thieneman while Hurts waited to be cleared. Hurts was later intercepted by T.J. Edwards on fourth-and-5, and Nick Sirianni said afterward he should have gone for an earlier fourth-and-1. The Eagles gained 62 of their 248 yards after halftime. Chicago lost left tackle Braxton Jones to a knee injury.

Eagles -3.5 when we published, total 44.5. ESPN had Philadelphia at 57.1%. Our Pick: Eagles.

Expected: Whether Bagent could run Ben Johnson’s offense unchanged, against the lowest-ranked 2-0 team in DVOA. What decided it: Keenum, not Bagent, running the offense on time, and three Philadelphia turnovers against a defense that still hasn’t forced one.

Power Rankings

Pre is our preseason ranking. Last week’s rank is in parentheses in each note below.

1. Bills (1). Five turnovers and still a win. First in ESPN and Prisco. They stay here until someone beats them.
2. 49ers (3). First in DVOA at 68.7%, the ninth-best mark through three games since 1977, per FTN’s Aaron Schatz, and first on NFL.com. We held them at 3 until they beat a real opponent. Arizona wasn’t it; Denver on Sunday is.
3. Chiefs (4). Kenneth Walker III leads the league in rushing and has changed what Mahomes’ offense can be. The concern is a pass rush that hasn’t sacked anyone in two weeks.
4. Seahawks (2). Lost on three turnovers, not on being outplayed. First in team run-stop win rate, second in pass rush.
5. Ravens (5). Last week we held them here against ESPN and Prisco. This week DVOA, ESPN and NFL.com all have them fifth.
6. Jaguars (14). Second in DVOA and 10-1 in their last 11 regular-season games. The biggest move on the board, and still below where DVOA has them.
7. Broncos (9). Two comeback wins in two weeks, and 10 first-half points all season. Sixth in three outside rankings, 16th in DVOA.
8. Vikings (10). First in defensive DVOA, 30th on offense, eight straight wins.
9. Rams (7). 1-2, but 10th in DVOA and the highest-ranked team with a losing record. Nacua is due back.
10. Bengals (6). Pittsburgh put 411 yards on the defense we reversed our August read on.
11. Bears (17). Case Keenum, and a defense that held Philadelphia to 248 yards.
12. Raiders (19). Nine takeaways, nine Cousins touchdown passes, and a schedule that turns now: Kansas City, New England, Buffalo, the Rams.
13. Lions (11). Thirty-plus points every week, and the most points allowed in the league.
14. Eagles (8). 22nd in DVOA with no takeaways in three games. The Chicago loss confirmed what the first two weeks suggested.
15. Cowboys (12). Lost in Rio on two late mistakes. Twelfth in DVOA.
16. Steelers (18). A rebuilt right side and a new offense for one week. Now it has to last on a short week in Cleveland.
17. Saints (21). Four fourth-quarter turnovers turned a win into a loss. Shough has eight touchdown passes.
18. Browns (25). Outgained in all three games and 2-1 anyway, on defense and Mason Graham.
19. Jets (20). Two one-score losses to NFC North teams. Fifteenth in DVOA.
20. Texans (15). 0-3. DVOA has them 17th, and FTN says the offense is about what it was last season. The record is what we have to answer to.
21. Panthers (23). Young is a different quarterback without Jalen Coker, and the injury list keeps growing.
22. Giants (28). 2-1, with Dart and now Burns out for the season.
23. Colts (24). The defense that allowed 1,029 yards in two weeks held Houston to 223.
24. Patriots (13). The worst offense in DVOA. Maye has seven turnovers in three games.
25. Falcons (31). With Penix, 35 points in Green Bay.
26. Commanders (29). Beat the champions with a backup, and Daniels may be back in London.
27. Packers (16). Last in pass-block win rate at 16%, and 30th in DVOA.
28. Cardinals (26). Scored 24 second-half points in San Francisco after eight first-half penalties.
29. Chargers (27). Five takeaways, still 0-3. DVOA and the results now agree.
30. Buccaneers (22). 0-3, with an undrafted rookie at quarterback for at least three weeks.
31. Titans (30). One first down in the first half in New Jersey.
32. Dolphins (32). Hung with Kansas City for three quarters and lost Achane for the season.

Projected Win Totals

With 48 wins banked through three weeks, the Week 4 set spreads the remaining 224 across 14 games per team and sums to 272 again.

Projected seeds. AFC: Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Jaguars; wild cards Broncos, Raiders, Bengals; first out, Steelers. NFC: 49ers, Vikings, Eagles, Saints; wild cards Seahawks, Rams, Lions; first out, Bears and Cowboys. Buffalo and Kansas City, Baltimore and Jacksonville, and Seattle and the Rams finish tied; we can’t project those tiebreakers.

Houston. Last week we called 10-7 from 0-2 the most aggressive projection on the page, and said a loss in Indianapolis would make it untenable. It did. The Texans drop three wins to 7-10, and the AFC South goes to Jacksonville.

The NFC West. We flipped the division from the Rams to Seattle last week. It now goes to San Francisco at 13-4, with Seattle and the Rams at 11-6 as wild cards.

Kansas City. From first team out in August to a projected top-two seed. We’ll say it every time the totals come back.

The AFC North. All four teams are 2-1. Baltimore holds the division at 11-6. Cincinnati’s 10-7 is now a wild card, Pittsburgh is first team out at 9-8, and Cleveland is up two to 8-9. Pittsburgh and Cleveland meet Thursday.

Week 4 Preview

No byes. In three games ESPN’s model favors the team the line has as the underdog: Green Bay at Tampa Bay, Dallas at Houston and Jacksonville at Cincinnati. Those, plus Denver at San Francisco, are the low-confidence picks and get a sentence of reasoning. Next week’s review checks each Key to the Game against what actually decided the game.

Thursday, October 1st

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 8:15 p.m. ET — Steelers -2.5, total 37.5. ESPN gives Pittsburgh 55.4%.

Key to the Game: The AFC North is four teams at 2-1, and the winner leads it alone. Pittsburgh’s new right side gave Rodgers time against Cincinnati. Cleveland’s disguised pressure and Mason Graham are the test of whether that holds. Cleveland drew 10 penalties in the first half against Carolina.

Our Pick: Steelers. Cleveland has been outgained in all three games. Pittsburgh’s rebuilt right side gives Rodgers time to see through pressure the Browns disguise.

Sunday, October 4th

Indianapolis vs. Washington (London), 9:30 a.m. ET — Colts -3, total 47.5. ESPN gives Indianapolis 53.9%. [Confirm designated home team.]

Key to the Game: Whether Jayden Daniels plays. Dan Quinn told The MMQB’s Albert Breer that Daniels is more likely than not to travel to London, two weeks after dislocating his elbow, per Yahoo Sports. Mariota won with quick throws and no turnovers. The Colts’ defense allowed 1,029 yards in its first two games and 223 against Houston. Daniel Jones fumbled three times. Washington’s linebackers are thin after Leo Chenal’s neck injury, and Rachaad White is hurt, per Fox Sports.

Our Pick: Colts. Washington’s 33 points came off three takeaways; without them, it gained 258 yards.

New England at Buffalo, 1:00 p.m. ET — Bills -7, total 48.5. ESPN gives Buffalo 71%.

Key to the Game: Maye has seven turnovers and A.J. Brown will miss at least two more games. Buffalo gave the ball away five times and still won. Christian Benford’s toe matters for the Bills’ secondary.

Our Pick: Bills.

N.Y. Jets at Chicago, 1:00 p.m. ET — Bears -3, total 42.5. ESPN gives Chicago 66.2%.

Key to the Game: Case Keenum beat Philadelphia on Monday in his first start in almost three years, with Caleb Williams out three to four weeks and Bagent back from the concussion protocol. Chicago lost left tackle Braxton Jones to a knee injury. Geno Smith threw for 321 yards in Detroit, and the Jets have lost two straight one-score games to NFC North teams. Breece Hall’s thigh.

Our Pick: Bears.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati, 1:00 p.m. ET — Bengals -2.5, total 51.5. ESPN gives Jacksonville 55%.

Key to the Game: Lawrence has five red-zone touchdowns and no interceptions this season. Cincinnati allowed 411 yards and gave away 10 points on special teams in Pittsburgh. The model and the market disagree; one sentence of reasoning.

Our Pick: Jaguars. DVOA has Jacksonville second, and Cincinnati’s defense just allowed 411 yards. The line likes the Bengals at home; we don’t.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants, 1:00 p.m. ET — Cardinals -1.5, total 44.5. ESPN gives Arizona 55.1%.

Key to the Game: The Giants are 2-1 with Winston, who remains the starter after Monday’s trade for J.J. McCarthy, per John Harbaugh. They lost Brian Burns to a torn ACL. Arizona had 10 penalties in San Francisco, eight in the first half, then scored on anyone it saw in the second.

Our Pick: Cardinals. The Giants’ defense won last week’s game, and it just lost Brian Burns.

L.A. Rams at Philadelphia, [1:00 or 4:25] p.m. ET — Rams -1.5, total 46.5. ESPN gives the Rams 56.6%. [Kickoff: Fox Sports lists 1:00, ESPN lists 4:25. Confirm, and recheck the line after Monday night.]

Key to the Game: Puka Nacua is expected back; Myles Garrett is still out. The Rams gained 482 yards in Denver and went 1 of 4 in the red zone. Philadelphia has no takeaways in three games and gained 62 yards after halftime in Chicago.

Our Pick: Rams. DVOA has Philadelphia 22nd, and Nacua is due back.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay, 1:00 p.m. ET — Packers -3.5, total 39.5. ESPN gives Tampa Bay 53.9%.

Key to the Game: Mayfield is reportedly out two to four weeks with the thumb, per Yahoo Sports, and ESPN expects Jalon Daniels to start for at least three weeks, with practice-squad veteran Easton Stick the only other option. Tampa’s offense had six sacks and went 2 of 17 on third down with Mayfield. Green Bay’s line is missing Zach Bako-Bewele for the season, and the Packers have a penalty problem. The model and the market disagree; one sentence of reasoning.

Our Pick: Packers. Green Bay’s line is last in pass-block win rate, but Tampa Bay is starting an undrafted rookie behind a line that just allowed six sacks.

Tennessee at Baltimore, 1:00 p.m. ET — Ravens -11.5, total 43.5. ESPN gives Baltimore 83.3%.

Key to the Game: Who snaps the ball for Baltimore, and whether the Ravens let an inferior team hang around. Full preview in our Ravens piece.

Our Pick: Ravens.

Dallas at Houston, 1:00 p.m. ET — Texans -2.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives Dallas 55.5%.

Key to the Game: Dallas flew back from Rio and did not return to work until Tuesday, per ESPN’s Todd Archer. Houston is 0-3 with its defense playing well and its offense waiting on Collins. The model and the market disagree; one sentence of reasoning.

Our Pick: Texans. ESPN’s model likes Dallas, but the Cowboys didn’t get back to work from Rio until Tuesday, and DVOA says Houston is better than 0-3.

Miami at Minnesota, 4:05 p.m. ET — Vikings -10, total 38.5. ESPN gives Minnesota 82.4%.

Key to the Game: Miami lost De’Von Achane for the season, and Malik Willis came into Week 3 as the most-sacked quarterback in the league. Minnesota’s defense had six sacks in Tampa. Justin Jefferson’s ankle.

Our Pick: Vikings.

Kansas City at Las Vegas, 4:25 p.m. ET — Chiefs -5.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives Kansas City 70.2%.

Key to the Game: Two 3-0 teams. Las Vegas has nine takeaways and 10 sacks and just got Brock Bowers back. Kansas City has not sacked a quarterback in two weeks, per ESPN’s Nate Taylor, and leans on Walker.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Denver at San Francisco, 4:25 p.m. ET — 49ers -3, total 46.5. ESPN gives San Francisco 77.6%.

Key to the Game: The model rates San Francisco far higher than a three-point line does, likely because the market is pricing the injuries: Bosa, Evans, Trent Williams and Greenlaw. This is also the real opponent that decides our discount on the 49ers. Denver has 10 first-half points in three games and two comeback wins.

Our Pick: 49ers. The line says three points because of the injuries. Purdy’s offense is first in DVOA, and Denver has scored 10 first-half points all season.

L.A. Chargers at Seattle, 4:25 p.m. ET — Seahawks -6.5, total 43.5. ESPN gives Seattle 73.8%.

Key to the Game: Seattle’s turnovers against a Chargers defense that just forced five. The Chargers’ offense has more punts and turnovers than touchdowns this season, per AP.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Detroit at Carolina, 8:20 p.m. ET — Lions -3.5, total 50.5. ESPN gives Detroit 61.9%.

Key to the Game: Carolina’s injuries, especially Coker, whose absence changes Young’s deep game. Gibbs has touched the ball on every big Detroit drive. Carolina has its bye next week.

Our Pick: Lions.

Monday, October 5th

Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:15 p.m. ET — Saints -2.5, total 48.5. ESPN gives New Orleans 62.6%.

Key to the Game: Penix’s second game against a Saints team that turned it over four times in the fourth quarter Sunday, with Kelvin Banks Jr. on IR and Travis Etienne’s hamstring. The NFC South is three teams at 1-2.

Our Pick: Saints. Penix makes Atlanta a different team, but New Orleans’ collapse was one quarter, and Shough has eight touchdown passes.

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Sam Darnold was inactive with a hip. Kyler Murray went into the concussion protocol eleven snaps into Week 1. Caleb Williams was carted off in Chicago with a right hamstring. Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow – the same one that ended his 2025 season – on the final play of the first half in Arlington. Jaxson Dart went down on the Giants’ seventh snap Monday night with a knee injury John Harbaugh described as “in the neighborhood of” a sprained ligament. And Atlanta started Cooper Rush for a second straight week, then benched him for an undrafted rookie who threw a pick-six on his first pass.

What separated the teams was how much of the operation depended on the man who left. Seattle won by 24 with Drew Lock, who has four touchdowns, no turnovers and the fourth-best QBR in football. Minnesota became the first team in NFL history to win four straight games with four different starting quarterbacks – Brosmer, McCarthy, Murray, Wentz – and did it with a defense and special teams unit that both rank sixth in EPA. Chicago scored three points. The Giants gained 182 yards. Washington, tied in everything but the scoreboard when Daniels went down, lost by 17.

Three other patterns ran underneath it. Home favorites kept losing — Baltimore, Tampa Bay and the Chargers all did, the Chargers for a second straight week and both times as a touchdown-plus favorite. Games kept turning on possession, with underdogs playing keep-away and mostly staying close. And penalties decided drives everywhere: Green Bay lost 133 yards on 14 flags and still won, the Chargers have 13 offensive penalties in two games, and Chicago committed nine against the one defense in football that punishes a third-and-long more than any other.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Our picks going forward are straight winners. We’ll show the line and the total, but we’re only formally picking the game.

Week 2 In Review

Thursday: Bills 41, Lions 31. Buffalo opened its new stadium by scoring on its first four possessions. Josh Allen threw three touchdowns and ran for two more, and has nine total through two weeks; James Cook ran for 134. Detroit blitzed Allen on 55.3% of his dropbacks, the highest rate under Kelvin Sheppard, and per Next Gen Stats he went 12 of 17 for 137 and two scores against it. Jared Goff was excellent in defeat – 26 of 38, 327 yards, four touchdowns — behind a line playing three backups that allowed four sacks. Detroit was without both starting safeties.

Panthers 34, Falcons 3. A week after allowing 59 points and franchise records in points and rushing touchdowns, Carolina held Atlanta to 286 yards. Bryce Young threw for 287 and three scores, two to Darren Waller. Devin Lloyd had nine tackles without a miss, a sack and two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown. Cooper Rush lost a fumble on the first play and threw an interception on the second possession; Jack Strand threw a pick-six on his first pass.

Bengals 20, Texans 6. Joe Burrow threw both touchdowns to Ja’Marr Chase, the first a 32-yard toe-drag over Derek Stingley – their 19th 20-plus-air-yard touchdown connection since 2021, most of any duo. But the game was the defense. Cincinnati kept Houston out of the end zone, only the third time under Zac Taylor they have held a team without a touchdown, with four sacks and a Dexter Lawrence fourth-and-1 stop on David Montgomery at the Cincinnati 18. Houston outgained Cincinnati 374 to 267 and lost by 14. Without Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud threw 55 times for 353 yards; the Texans botched a snap on a 34-yard field-goal try, and DeMeco Ryans chose a 58-yard attempt over fourth-and-1 in the third quarter, which came up short.

Vikings 9, Bears 3. Chicago scored 59 in Week 1 and three in the rain against Brian Flores. Isaiah Rodgers recovered a goal-line fumble and blocked a field goal; Dallas Turner had two sacks including the game-ender. Flores has blitzed on 73.6% of dropbacks, the highest early-season rate since 2009, and per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell the Bears faced third-and-7 or longer eight times and converted two. Caleb Williams was 15 of 26 for 138 before the hamstring. Aaron Jones carried Minnesota with 105 yards.

Saints 24, Ravens 17. Our full review of the Ravens’ loss ran separately. Tyler Shough rallied New Orleans from 17-9 down for a second straight week, finishing with a 16-play drive and a fourth-and-goal sneak. His splits are extraordinary: 14.3 Total QBR through three quarters, 29th of 30 qualifiers, and 97.7 in the fourth and overtime, second in the league. He leads the NFL with 662 passing yards, and 350 of them have come in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Eagles 24, Titans 20. Philadelphia opened with three straight drives of 11-plus plays, then spent a 98-degree afternoon letting Tennessee back in. Amani Hooker’s end-zone interception, returned 92 yards, set up the Titans’ first touchdown; a second Hurts pick set up the go-ahead field goal with 1:56 left. Hurts then accounted for all 65 yards on the winning drive, hitting Darius Cooper with nine seconds to go. He had nine third-down conversions, a career high, and converted three third-and-12-or-longers, also a career high, while averaging 7.9 yards to go. Saquon Barkley took a stinger on the first play and finished with 9 yards on four carries; Dallas Goedert’s knee has put him on injured reserve.

Patriots 20, Steelers 3. New England lost six players in the first half and won by 17. TreVeyon Henderson scored on a 39-yard run in his season debut and out-snapped Rhamondre Stevenson 32 to 15 after Stevenson’s early fumble. Christian Barmore’s strip-sack of Aaron Rodgers was returned 19 yards for a touchdown by Elijah Ponder. Rodgers was sacked four times, fumbled twice, and is 8 of 24 under pressure this season. Christian Gonzalez shadowed DK Metcalf at times and held him to four catches for 27.

Packers 20, Jets 17 (OT). Green Bay snapped a six-game skid on Trey Smack’s 26-yarder after trailing 17-7 in the fourth, with 199 total net yards and 133 yards lost to 14 penalties. Jayden Reed (neck) and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele (knee) were carted off on consecutive plays of the opening drive; by the end the Packers had lost both of their top two left guards and were playing a rookie making his NFL debut. Jordan Love has taken 18 quarterback hits in two weeks. Lukas Van Ness had nine pressures and 1.5 sacks and stuffed the Jets on third and fourth down late in regulation. Aaron Glenn’s clock management — no timeout before the Packers’ punt, ball first in overtime — will be the story in New York all week.

Browns 23, Buccaneers 19. Deshaun Watson went 24 of 30 for 238 and two touchdowns, his first win since September 2024, with the lowest average depth of target of his career at 3.7 yards. Cleveland ran for 44 yards and won on the road. A two-hour, twelve-minute lightning delay suspended the game at the two-minute warning with Tampa at the Cleveland 28; when it resumed, a Tristan Wirfs holding penalty set the Bucs back and Baker Mayfield’s fourth-down throw sailed wide. Tampa lost at home as an 8.5-point favorite and is 2-9 in its last 11.

Broncos 20, Jaguars 13. Denver trailed 13-3 with its offense 3 of 18 on third down across six quarters. Then Jaylen Waddle went for 138 yards on eight catches and rookie Jonah Coleman scored the go-ahead touchdown after J.K. Dobbins left with a hamstring. Bo Nix was not sacked and averaged 9.3 yards an attempt. Denver held Jacksonville to 95 rushing yards and Trevor Lawrence to 189, pressured him on 45.2% of his dropbacks, and got a third-quarter goal-line stand that turned the game.

Raiders 26, Chargers 14. Two home losses as touchdown-plus favorites, and Jim Harbaugh has never started a season 0-2 anywhere. Justin Herbert threw two interceptions — both to Hezekiah Masses — and the Chargers fumbled six times. Joe Alt had two false starts, the guard spot rotated, both tight ends got hurt, and they conceded a fourth-down conversion with twelve men on the field coming out of a timeout. Cody White caught two touchdowns; Tre Tucker had five for 119 with Brock Bowers out.

Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7. In his first start since 2024, Drew Lock threw for 235 and three touchdowns, all to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had 155 yards — more than Arizona’s entire offense. Seattle is the only team yet to allow a play of 25 yards, and Arizona did not score on its final seven possessions.

Cowboys 37, Commanders 20. Dak Prescott went 26 of 32 for 279 and four touchdowns, breaking Tony Romo’s franchise record of 248. CeeDee Lamb had 153 yards and two scores. Dallas scored on seven of eight possessions. Daniels was 11 of 17 for 96 with seven carries for 69 when Chris Paul stepped on his foot on the last play of the half.

49ers 35, Dolphins 13. San Francisco scored touchdowns on its first five possessions. Miami held the ball long enough that the 49ers ran two first-half drives — the first team to do that since November 2024 — and scored on both. Brock Purdy went 20 of 22 for 287 and leads the league in QBR at 94.9. Twenty-one of Miami’s first 26 snaps came in San Francisco territory and produced three points.

Chiefs 33, Colts 30 (OT). Patrick Mahomes threw 47 times for 382 yards and three touchdowns and Kansas City gained 523. Indianapolis reached the red zone in overtime on a 48-yard Daniel Jones strike to Laquon Treadwell, ran twice for minus-3, settled for a tying field goal, and watched Mahomes drive for Harrison Butker’s winner. The Colts have lost nine straight.

Monday: Rams 28, Giants 6. Matthew Stafford threw for 327 and four touchdowns, Davante Adams caught eight for 195 and two scores, and the Rams outgained New York 481 to 182 without Puka Nacua or Myles Garrett. Aaron Donald played 32 snaps in his first game in 32 months, with a 0.75-second get-off that Next Gen Stats ranked tied for third-fastest by any defensive tackle this season. Stafford’s 426th career touchdown pass moved him past Philip Rivers into sixth all-time. Dart left on the seventh snap; Jameis Winston went 11 of 27 for 111 with an end-zone interception.

Power Rankings

Pre = our preseason ranking. DVOA = FTN total DVOA through Week 2. ESPN = Week 3 power rankings. NFL.com = Week 3 power rankings. Prisco = Pete Prisco’s Week 3 rankings at CBS Sports.

San Francisco. DVOA has the 49ers first outright at 78.0%, second on offense and fifth on defense, and they are one of only three teams inside the top ten on both sides of the ball. We have them third anyway, on the opposition. Their two wins came against a Rams team that had flown 16 hours to Melbourne and back, and a Miami team that is last in DVOA and has not held a lead for a single second this season. Barnwell made the same point — the 49ers may not have played a difficult slate yet. We spent this piece discounting Chicago’s 59 points because Carolina allowed them and Buffalo’s four sacks because Detroit played three backup linemen. The same discipline applies here. Buffalo has beaten Houston and Detroit; Seattle has won twelve straight and has not allowed a play of 25 yards. Nobody outside has San Francisco first either.

Baltimore. Week 2 DVOA has the Ravens third overall at 38.3% and third on offense — after a loss. FTN’s Aaron Schatz calls it a reverse post-game win expectancy game: on the underlying stats he would expect Baltimore to win 70% of the time, citing a better running game, a better defensive performance and a 5.6-to-4.7 edge in yards per play. DAVE has them sixth. NFL.com has them fifth. ESPN dropped them 3 to 7. Prisco dropped them 6 to 11.

The Jets are the widest disagreement on the board. Eighth in DVOA with the third-best defense, and 25th to 27th everywhere else. Schatz gives them a 78% post-game win expectancy in a game they lost, which supports our read that 5-12 was too low. We have moved them eight spots and still have them below the model by a dozen.

Pittsburgh is the hardest entry to write, and NFL.com put it best: a defensive front among the most complete in football attached to an offense that cannot function. First in defensive DVOA, 31st on offense, dead last in pass-rush win rate. We have moved them down two and could defend anything from 14th to 24th.

The five biggest movers from August. San Francisco up eleven, Las Vegas up ten, Minnesota up nine, the Jets up eight, Kansas City up seven — and the Chargers down nineteen.

Projected Win Totals and Division Finishes

Thirty-two wins are banked league-wide, leaving 240 to project across fifteen remaining games per team. The set below sums to 272. Preseason numbers are from our August preview.

AFC East

The Jets move most. Eighth in DVOA, third-best defense, no Geno Smith turnover in 74 dropbacks, and two games they could have won. Miami is last in DVOA at -69.5% and is the only team that has not held a lead for a single second this season.

AFC North

Holding Baltimore at 11-6 after a home loss is the call we would most expect to be challenged, and DVOA is the reason we are comfortable. Cincinnati is 2-0 and leads the division today; the two head-to-head meetings decide it. Pittsburgh gets a win back on the strength of the best defense in football.

AFC South

Houston at 10-7 from 0-2 requires 10-5 the rest of the way, which is the most aggressive projection on this page. The case: DAVE has them eighth, their two losses came to Buffalo and Cincinnati, and the defense has largely held up. The case against: 32nd in red-zone touchdown rate since the start of last season, and Nico Collins is hurt.

AFC West

The four-win swing on the Chargers is the largest revision in the set, and it is still charitable. ESPN’s Benjamin Solak reads their next seven – at Buffalo, at Seattle, Denver, at Kansas City, at the Rams, Houston, at Baltimore — as a stretch where three wins would be a miracle. Las Vegas gains three and we are still below DVOA, which has them tenth.

NFC East

Both quarterback injuries land here. Dallas rises on an offense that scored on seven of eight possessions and grades fourth in DVOA – the reverse of the preseason thesis, which was built on the defense becoming average.

NFC North

Minnesota is the biggest riser in the set. Ninth in DVOA with the fourth-best defense, 2-0 with two division wins, and Kyler Murray back this week. Chicago holds: Williams is week-to-week rather than out, and a rain game against Flores is not a season.

NFC South

We took the over on New Orleans in August and Schatz had them 31st. Two fourth quarters later, they are the division favorite. No NFC team in 30 years has started 0-3 and made the playoffs, which is what Tampa Bay is playing for Sunday.

NFC West

The division flips. We had the Rams at 13-4 and first; Seattle is 2-0, has not allowed a play of 25 yards, and won by 24 with a backup quarterback. The Rams are 12-5 and second on the tiebreaker we cannot yet project. San Francisco leads DVOA outright at 78.0% and is still third here, which tells you what we think of the division.

Projected Seeding

AFC: 1. Bills 12-5 · 2. Chiefs 12-5 · 3. Ravens 11-6 · 4. Texans 10-7 · 5. Bengals 10-7 · 6. Broncos 10-7 · 7. Patriots 10-7. First out: Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Jacksonville, all 9-8.

NFC: 1. Seahawks 12-5 · 2. Eagles 11-6 · 3. Vikings 11-6 · 4. Saints 9-8 · 5. Rams 12-5 · 6. 49ers 11-6 · 7. Lions 10-7. First out: Dallas 10-7.

Two changes from August worth naming. We had Kansas City as the first AFC team out at 10-7; they are now the projected second seed. And we had the Chargers winning the West at 10-7; they are now 6-11 and out of the picture entirely. Those two calls were the ones we flagged in the preview as most likely to be wrong. Both were, in opposite directions.

Week 3 Preview

Thursday, Sept. 24th

Atlanta at Green Bay, 8:15 — Packers -7, total 43.5. ESPN gives Green Bay a 74.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Michael Penix Jr. is expected to make his first start since tearing an ACL last November, for a team that has not run a red-zone play this season – the first in 18 years to manage that through two games. Green Bay, on three days’ rest, lost 133 yards to 14 penalties on Sunday, gained 199 net yards, and will field one of the league’s least experienced lines without Reed and with Josh Jacobs on the commissioner exempt list. Green Bay is last in the league in pass-block win rate at 18%; Za’Darius Smith leads all edge rushers in pass-rush win rate.

Our Pick: Packers. Green Bay is 22nd in DVOA and does not look right. Atlanta is 31st with the fifth-worst two-week pass offense since 1977.

Sunday, Sept. 27th — 1:00

Carolina at Cleveland — Panthers -3, total 42.5. ESPN gives Carolina a 63.5% chance to win.

Match-Up to Watch: Bryce Young is averaging 8.0 yards per dropback, fifth in the league, after 5.6 over the past two seasons. Cleveland won in Tampa with 44 rushing yards and Watson’s career-low depth of target.

Our Pick: Panthers.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh — Bengals -3.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Cincinnati a 61.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Pittsburgh has the best defense in football by DVOA and the 31st-ranked offense. Cincinnati’s rebuilt front is tied for the league lead with eight sacks and is allowing 16.5 points a game; Houston sacked Burrow five times. Whichever line holds up decides it – and Cincinnati’s defensive front is the weakest inclusion on our published top-8, with the Week 4 republish coming.

Our Pick: Bengals. It’s a division road game against the league’s best defense so far by DVOA. This could go the other way.

Houston at Indianapolis — Texans -3, total 43.5. ESPN gives Houston a 52.5% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Two 0-2 teams, market on the road team, model near a coin flip. Houston is 32nd in red-zone touchdown rate since the start of last season; Indianapolis has the worst defense in DVOA and just allowed 523 yards. Collins’s hamstring and Alec Pierce’s heel are both in doubt.

Our Pick: Texans.

Kansas City at Miami — Chiefs -11.5, total 45.5. ESPN gives Kansas City an 85.8% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Miami is last in DVOA and has not led for a single second this season. Kansas City held the ball for all but 2:22 of the third quarter Sunday night.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

L.A. Chargers at Buffalo — Bills -7, total 50.5. ESPN gives Buffalo a 78.9% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Buffalo has the best offense in DVOA at 56.8%, and Allen is averaging a career-best 9.7 yards per attempt on his deepest average target depth since his rookie year. The Chargers arrive with 13 offensive penalties, seven fumbles and a quarterback Solak calls the most visibly rattled he has been.

Our Pick: Bills.

New England at Jacksonville — Jaguars -3, total 45.5. ESPN gives Jacksonville a 57.5% chance to win.

Key to the Game: The interior. Denver pressured Lawrence on 45.2% of his dropbacks and he completed 33.3% under pressure against 76.5% clean; New England has Barmore, first among all defensive tackles in pass-rush win rate, and Milton Williams. Jacksonville’s own front is thin – 30th in team pass-rush win rate, with its tackles producing five pressures on 106 snaps and Josh Hines-Allen shut out on 24 rushes in Denver. Against that, New England is missing A.J. Brown (high ankle), Mike Onwenu (broken right ankle) and three more defenders from Sunday, in Florida heat with no depth.

Our Pick: Jaguars. Low confidence, and Solak argues the other way convincingly. New England’s defense is sixth in DVOA, but the attrition and the setting are hard to ignore.

N.Y. Jets at Detroit — Lions -6.5, total 48.5. ESPN gives Detroit a 75.5% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Does Sheppard blitz like that again? Detroit is 28th in defensive DVOA after ten days off. The Jets are eighth overall with the third-best defense.

Our Pick: Lions. The numbers say this is closer than the line.

Seattle at Washington — Seahawks -6.5, total 39.5. ESPN gives Seattle a 67.2% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Marcus Mariota’s first start against the only defense yet to allow a 25-yard play, in the lowest total on the board. Washington is 28th in DVOA and has lost Daniels, Laremy Tunsil for most of the year, and Sam Cosmi.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Tennessee at N.Y. Giants — Giants -3, total 40.5. ESPN gives Tennessee a 54.6% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Dart’s knee. Winston went 11 of 27 for 111 in relief and the Giants gained 182 yards. Cam Ward ran for two touchdowns against Philadelphia, the fifth Titans or Oilers quarterback in fifty seasons to do that in a game, and Tennessee nearly stole one in Nashville.

Our Pick: Titans. A true tossup, taken on the injury alone. If Dart plays, it flips back. The line and the model now disagree — the number moved from Giants -6 to -3 while ESPN flipped to Tennessee.

4:05

Arizona at San Francisco — 49ers -8.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives San Francisco a 90.3% chance to win.

Key to the Game: San Francisco leads DVOA at 78.0%, second on offense and fifth on defense, with a receiver room down Demarcus Robinson, Mike Evans, De’Zhaun Stribling and Ricky Pearsall. Purdy leads the league in QBR. Arizona gained 151 yards Sunday.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay — Vikings -1.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Minnesota a 52.2% chance to win.

Key to the Game: The league’s most aggressive blitz against a line that has allowed seven sacks and a quarterback with four turnovers, ranked 29th of 32 in EPA per dropback. Two complications: Kyler Murray returns from the protocol, upgrading a 26th-ranked offense, and a dome team blitzing three of every four dropbacks in Tampa heat in the late window needs fresh legs late. No NFC team in 30 years has started 0-3 and made the playoffs, so Tampa is playing its season.

Our Pick: Vikings. CBS Sports is taking Tampa. Do wonder how the Vikings will do in the Tampa heat.

4:25

Baltimore at Dallas — Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro — Ravens -3, total 52.5. ESPN gives Baltimore a 53.9% chance to win.

Our full preview is here. Third and seventh in DVOA. Dallas has given up the third-most rushing yards in the league and grades 32nd in team run-block win rate; Baltimore is first in run blocking and averaging 155 rushing yards a game. The counterweight is that Jackson’s two lowest pass-block win rates as a starter have come in the first two weeks. Field conditions seem like a question.

Our Pick: Ravens.

Las Vegas at New Orleans — Saints -3, total 43.5. ESPN gives New Orleans a 64.3% chance to win.

Match-Up to Watch: Shough leads the league in passing yards and has taken the second-most sacks; Las Vegas is tied for the league lead with eight. New Orleans lost Kelvin Banks Jr. to a sprained ankle and is 28th in pass-block win rate. Las Vegas is last in the league at 2.8 yards a carry, so the Jeanty plan may not be available.

Our Pick: Saints. Not an overly confident pick. The Raiders are 10th in DVOA to New Orleans’ 24th.

8:20 — Sunday Night

L.A. Rams at Denver — Rams -2.5, total 45.5. ESPN gives the Rams a 65.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: The Rams looked like themselves Monday — 481 yards to 182, four Stafford touchdowns, 195 for Adams, Donald back after 32 months. DVOA has them eighth on offense and ninth on defense, one of only three teams top-ten in both, and third in DAVE; they are 14th overall only because they are dead last in special teams again. Denver is giving up 157.5 rushing yards a game, fourth-most in the league, after finishing second-best last season, and may be down to a rookie back.

Our Pick: Rams. Denver is at home, and had another day to prepare; but still taking the Rams.

Monday, Sept. 28th

Philadelphia at Chicago, 8:15 — Eagles -3.5, total 44.5. ESPN gives Philadelphia a 57.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Ben Johnson has called Williams week-to-week and says Tyson Bagent can run the offense without changing the scheme. Philadelphia is the lowest-ranked 2-0 team at 16th in DVOA, ranks fifth-lowest in yards before contact per rush, and has now lost Goedert to injured reserve. Chicago’s run game took Vic Fangio’s defense apart last season.

Our Pick: Eagles. Solak picks Chicago. We will take Hurts, who was the best player on the field in Nashville.

The post 2026 NFL: Previewing Week 3 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Our picks going forward are straight winners. We’ll show the line and the total, but we’re only formally picking the game.

Week 1 Quick Hits

Seahawks 13 Patriots 10 – Seattle raised the banner and needed three fourth-quarter interceptions to beat the team it beat in February. Sam Darnold hurt his hip on the fifth play of the game on a Dre’Mont Jones sack; Mike Macdonald said initial tests ruled out a break. Drew Lock, who threw three passes all of last season and had not taken a first-team rep in practice that week, went 5 of 7 for 89 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter. He hit reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 45 on fourth-and-1 to tie it after a Nehemiah Pritchett interception, and Jason Myers won it from 26 after Julian Love picked Maye on the next drive. Josh Jobe’s toe-tap in the end zone ended it. Drake Maye was 17 of 22 through three quarters, then threw three picks in the fourth, the first a deep ball to a double-covered Romeo Doubs with a checkdown open in the flat. Maye called it unacceptable. Christian Gonzalez blanked Smith-Njigba across ten coverage matchups. New England ran 31 times for 109 yards, with Rhamondre Stevenson and Corey Kiner combining for 62 yards of which 59 came after contact, and Maye was pressured on 38.1% of his dropbacks while taking only three sacks. A.J. Brown left in the third quarter with a high ankle sprain.

49ers 27 Rams 7 – The preseason favorite opened 10,000 miles from home in front of 100,021 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground and got run off it. San Francisco scored the final 24 points. Brock Purdy threw for 205 and three touchdowns — Demarcus Robinson on a 39-yard post, Mike Evans over new Rams corner Jaylen Watson, and Deebo Samuel to cap a 99-yard drive. Raheem Morris, coordinating against the team he coached for, held the NFL’s best 2025 offense to 290 yards, allowed the third-lowest EPA per play of the week, and stopped Matthew Stafford on a fourth-down sneak from the San Francisco 1. Stafford went 15 of 25 for 155 and said they had two good drives and that it started with him. Fred Warner and Nick Bosa both returned from long absences and were immediately themselves; Bosa hit Stafford on the first snap of the game. The Rams did not sack Purdy once. Myles Garrett recorded no tackles and three total pressures across 39 defensive snaps; he acknowledged afterward that his knee has him at less than full health, and has since had arthroscopic surgery and gone on injured reserve for at least four games. The Rams’ next four opponents are the Giants, Broncos, Eagles and Bills. San Francisco arrived in Australia a week early. The Rams landed roughly a day before a 10:35 a.m. kickoff, part of a years-in-the-making plan to keep the players on California time — the team flew 32 hours inside three days — and Sean McVay said he doesn’t believe the travel plan is the reason they lost.

Bills 36 Texans 31 – The best game on the early slate delivered. Josh Allen went 20 of 29 for 334 with two touchdowns and ran for two more, including the 34-yard winner to Joshua Palmer on third-and-11 inside the final two minutes — one snap after Kamari Lassiter dropped an interception in the end zone that would have ended it. Allen had a 28.2 Total QBR against Houston over the past two seasons and a league-best 72.8 against everyone else. Matt Burke’s defense played zone on 24 of Allen’s 32 dropbacks after playing man nearly 39 percent of the time in Houston’s two previous wins over Buffalo, and Allen posted a passer rating over 129 against both. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. did not sack him once. The Joe Brady wrinkle was Dalton Kincaid, who ran routes on 71% of Allen’s dropbacks after averaging 58% from 2023 to 2025 and caught five passes for a career-high 130 yards with catches of 35, 38 and 40. DJ Moore went for 100 and a score in his Buffalo debut and drew a 46-yard pass interference. Buffalo ran 13 personnel on 36.8% of snaps; the Rams led the NFL last season at 30.4%. Buffalo averaged 7.9 yards a play, the most Houston has allowed since DeMeco Ryans was hired in 2023, and it was the first time a Ryans defense gave up 400 yards since late in the 2024 season. Houston ran 73 plays to Buffalo’s 52 and held the ball for 36:17 and lost anyway. David Montgomery scored three times on 79 scrimmage yards. C.J. Stroud threw for 274 and two scores with no interceptions but lost two fumbles, both on Greg Rousseau strip-sacks, the second against a three-man rush at the Buffalo 28 in the closing seconds. Houston’s defense led the league in yards allowed last season and gave up its most points since December 2023.

Ravens 41 Colts 23 – Baltimore outgained Indianapolis 506 to 251 and led 31-13 at the half, the fifth time in franchise history they have scored 31 before the break. Derrick Henry ran 24 times for 144 and three touchdowns at 32, moving to 125 career rushing scores — third all-time behind Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson — and past Marvin Harrison into ninth in total touchdowns. Lamar Jackson went 17 of 25 for 324 with a touchdown through the air and another on the ground, and escaped a sack near midfield to scramble for a first down on third-and-16 in the first quarter. Roquan Smith intercepted Daniel Jones on the Colts’ second drive and Marlon Humphrey stripped Jonathan Taylor on the next one; Baltimore converted both and led 28-6. Zay Flowers had five catches for 150 and a 54-yard touchdown before pulling up with a hamstring in the second quarter. It was the first time in the franchise’s 31-year history that Baltimore had a 300-yard passer, a 150-yard receiver and a 100-yard rusher in the same game. Jonathan Taylor ran 19 times for 98 and two scores at 5.2 a carry. Declan Doyle, one of seventeen play callers either new to a team or doing the job for the first time this season, got touchdown drives on four of Baltimore’s first five possessions, and would have had five but for a holding call on center Jovaughn Gwyn that erased a touchdown pass to Ja’Kobi Lane. The Ravens took ten dropbacks from under center, the most Jackson has ever had in a game, and he went 6 of 8 for 114 yards from those looks — 14.3 an attempt with a 116.7 rating — including the 49-yarder to Zay Flowers off a boot. Henry gained 130 of his yards on nineteen under-center carries at 6.8 a pop. It was the first time in three years Indianapolis has given up 500 yards. Daniel Jones, nine months off a torn Achilles, was 19 of 31 for 166 and carried the ball once for four yards. Calais Campbell, 40, made his 260th career start, joining Jim Marshall and Bruce Smith as the only defensive linemen to reach that number.

Bengals 33 Buccaneers 27 – Cincinnati’s rebuilt defense forced four turnovers and had four sacks, and 24 of the 33 points came off Tampa Bay mistakes. Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook, both free-agent additions, each forced and recovered a fumble, and Mafe added a sack. Demetrius Knight Jr. scooped a Baker Mayfield fumble and returned it for a touchdown, Cincinnati’s first scoop-and-score since Sam Hubbard’s 99-yarder in the January 2023 wild card. Three of Tampa’s first four possessions ended in fumbles, all converted into touchdowns. Mayfield, who signed a three-year, $165 million extension this week, put three of them on the ground — two while being sacked, one stretching for extra yardage at the Cincinnati 4 with the Buccaneers about to score — and still finished 23 of 28 for 216 with a rushing touchdown. Joe Burrow was 25 of 35 for 254 and scored on six of seven drives after an opening three-and-out, the exception being a pick-six to rookie Josiah Trotter, who became the first player with a sack and a pick-six in his debut since sacks became an official statistic in 1982. Evan McPherson hit four field goals including a 55 and a 58, the first Bengal with two from 55-plus in a game. Ja’Marr Chase, questionable all week with a knee, drew four targets; Mike Gesicki led the team with seven. Cincinnati led 27-10 early in the third quarter and then stopped, averaging minus-0.19 EPA per play in the second half, second-worst of the week behind New England. The Bengals ran nine plays from under center and did not succeed on any of them.

Jaguars 34 Browns 10 – Trevor Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 245 and four touchdowns with a career-best 150.6 rating, and Jacksonville scored on six of its first seven possessions. The touchdowns went to Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, Jakobi Meyers and rookie Josh Cameron, three of them wide open. Washington, a pending free agent in the middle of contract negotiations, caught the first one diving and flashed a pay-me sign. Deshaun Watson threw an interception on the opening drive of his first start in nearly two years, nearly threw another on the second possession, recovered his own fumble, and was sacked five times. Cleveland went 1 for 8 on third down, took 11 penalties, and failed to score a touchdown on both trips inside the 20. Their only points before a 46-yard Watson-to-Denzel Boston score with 1:52 left came after a 74-yard Raheim Sanders kick return. Watson had been 7-0 in his career against Jacksonville. Lawrence went 10 of 12 for 179 and three scores on throws travelling ten or more yards, and had two tight-window completions all afternoon. New Cleveland coordinator Mike Rutenberg, replacing Jim Schwartz, played zone on 20 of Lawrence’s 25 dropbacks, blitzed three times and generated no quick pressures. Jared Verse did not record a hurry in his Browns debut.

Steelers 20 Falcons 13 – Atlanta’s quarterback question got answered in the worst way available. Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa were both declared out, so Cooper Rush started — a free agent until training camp, with almost no first-team work, reportedly dealing with back spasms the day before. Kevin Stefanski wasn’t going to expose Jack Strand in Week 1, so Atlanta ran an extremely conservative plan and still gave up both Pittsburgh touchdowns off Rush turnovers. T.J. Watt had two sacks and a 35-yard pick-six on a telegraphed dump-off. Pittsburgh also rested him: Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig each played around 40 snaps with Jack Sawyer taking 23, and 37-year-old Cam Heyward played 33 of 61 after leading all NFL defensive linemen in snaps last season. Heyward batted down three passes. Aaron Rodgers was 24 of 40 for 221 and a touchdown to Pat Freiermuth, with DK Metcalf dropping several. Per Next Gen Stats, Rodgers averaged 9.2 air yards per target, his highest as a Steeler, with a 2.95-second time to throw, his third-highest — and Patrick Graham played exclusively zone on Atlanta’s dropbacks after Pittsburgh was man-heavy a year ago. Rush threw two interceptions, and Atlanta managed only two drives all afternoon that gained more than 30 yards. The Falcons were also without both of their intended starting edge rushers — Jalon Walker tore an ACL and is out for the season, and James Pearce Jr. is suspended for the first eight games — which is why Za’Darius Smith, signed less than a month ago at 34 after retiring midway through last season, was the one getting home. He sacked Rodgers twice. Bijan Robinson accounted for 173 of Atlanta’s 238 yards. Kyle Pitts was shut out. Nick Folk, one of the most reliable kickers in the league the past three seasons, missed two. Atlanta took nine penalties for 96 yards.

Lions 31 Saints 30 (OT) – Detroit led 21-0 and needed a stop on a two-point conversion in overtime to survive. Jahmyr Gibbs carried a career-high 29 times for 156 and two scores with five catches. Jared Goff was 26 of 39 for 206 with two touchdowns and no turnovers, both scores going to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who finished with 67 receiving yards, and got the break of the afternoon when Chase Young knocked the ball loose on a sack and New Orleans returned it for a touchdown, only for review to rule Goff’s arm had started forward. Dan Campbell said outright he thought they’d lost that one. Tyler Shough threw two interceptions and lost a fumble and then went 35 of 56 for 410 and three touchdowns, converting a fourth-and-12 from his own 23 and hitting Chris Olave for 43 to set up the tying score with 1:07 left. Detroit went three-and-out and Ryan Wright missed from 62 as time expired. In overtime Kellen Moore took the two-point try rather than extend the game, saying he didn’t want to give Detroit the ball back with 1:34. New Orleans outgained Detroit 469 to 369 and lost on the turnover margin. Christian Mahogany was carted off with a right knee injury.

Jets 23 Titans 10 – New York never trailed, out-gained Tennessee 367-195, held the ball nearly 39 minutes and put together a 19-play drive that consumed almost twelve minutes of the first half. Breece Hall ran for 102 and a score. Geno Smith went 19 of 24 for 215 with no interceptions in his return to the team that drafted him, coming off a league-high 17 picks a year ago. The defense that finished 32nd in passing EPA in 2025 without recording a single interception got three sacks with Aaron Glenn calling it himself, one from No. 2 overall pick David Bailey and one from Kingsley Enagbare. Cam Ward was 19 of 32 for 140 with a late touchdown to Elic Ayomanor and said the Titans are better than what they showed. Robert Saleh, calling the defense himself against the team that fired him five games into 2024, said the Jets got after them. Tennessee pushed the opening kickoff out of bounds, burned a timeout to avoid twelve men on the field, and lost a Chimere Dike fumble on a kickoff after he’d already been checked for a concussion on his first punt return. Glenn deactivated Blake Grupe, claimed off waivers from Indianapolis on Aug. 31, and elevated Jason Sanders from the practice squad, who hit from 33, 51 and 52.

Eagles 24 Commanders 22 – Washington was a yard from overtime. Jayden Daniels found Antonio Williams on third-and-goal from the 1 with 1:01 left, and Moro Ojomo blew up a shovel pass to backup tight end John Bates on the two-point attempt. Nick Sirianni is 6-0 in openers. Jalen Hurts was 14 of 25 for 203 with three touchdowns — two of them to Dallas Goedert on third down, both down the middle of the field — and added 46 rushing yards including a 22-yard scramble on third-and-18 that saved the game. Dontayvion Wicks, acquired from Green Bay in April, had a career-long 64-yard catch and a touchdown. Zack Baun had 12 tackles, a sack and a tipped pass inside the final two minutes. DeVonta Smith, the new No. 1, finished with three catches. Philadelphia’s line was the problem: three sacks allowed, constant pressure, four of the team’s five penalties on linemen, two holding calls on Cam Jurgens, and a third quarter that produced 59 yards and one first down. Daniels went 18 of 34 for 164 and two scores behind a line missing Laremy Tunsil, and Washington ran for 132. Dan Quinn said the miscues were the margin — a high snap cost an extra point, Drew Stevens missed from 54, and Stefon Diggs took a 15-yard unsportsmanlike for hugging the goalpost after his touchdown, which is why Washington kicked the extra point there rather than going for two.

Vikings 39 Packers 22 – The one game where the book and the model took opposite sides, and the book won it. Kyler Murray played eleven snaps, threw an interception, and left with a concussion on a slide that drew an unnecessary roughness flag on Javon Bullard. Carson Wentz, brought back this year essentially as a mentor, went 12 of 19 for 133 with three touchdowns and a 123.5 rating, and Minnesota scored the game’s final 29 points. Two of the three went to Justin Jefferson, who finished with eight catches for 92 and matched his entire 2025 touchdown total, and Jefferson caught the two-point conversion that gave Minnesota its first lead. Minnesota hit Jordan Love fifteen times, sacked him four, and held Green Bay to 3.1 yards a carry. Three of Minnesota’s four second-half touchdown drives started in Green Bay territory, following a long kickoff return and two turnovers. Green Bay reportedly became the first team in NFL history to lead by 12-plus with twenty minutes remaining and lose by 17-plus. The turn was a Matt LaFleur decision: up five, he waved off a made 40-yard Trey Smack field goal to take an offside penalty and go for fourth-and-1, and Jordan Love was stuffed by rookie Domonique Orange. Minnesota then drove the other way while Green Bay committed four defensive penalties on the same possession, including an illegal contact that erased a third-down sack and a holding call that erased an end-zone interception. Love finished 21 of 42 for 387 and two touchdowns to Christian Watson, including an 81-yard career-long, behind a line that gave up four sacks and two fumbles with Aaron Banks inactive and Donovan Jennings making his first career start. Dallas Turner was credited with nine pressures, Andrew Van Ginkel with two sacks and the strip that set up the clinching score.

Bears 59 Panthers 37 – The highest-scoring opener in NFL history, eight points past the previous mark of 88 set in Tampa Bay’s 48-40 win over New Orleans in 2018. Chicago’s 59 tied the 2019 Ravens for the most points ever scored on offense in a season opener and broke a franchise record for an opener that had stood since 1948. Caleb Williams threw for 269 and two scores and ran for 65 and two more on ten carries, all rushing career highs, and hit 70 percent completions for the first time under Ben Johnson. The efficiency is the part to take seriously: Williams’ off-target rate was a league-worst 20.2% last season and came in at 13.8% here, and his completion percentage over expectation went from minus-6.7 — worst among regular starters in 2025 — to plus-11.4, third-best of Week 1. Chicago ran for 291 as a team at 7.5 a carry, its most since 1984, and produced four runs of 25-plus yards, matching its entire 2025 total. D’Andre Swift, extended for $33.75 million this week, went for 124 and three touchdowns; Kyle Monangai added 100 including a 61-yard score. Seven touchdowns on twelve drives after an opening-possession fumble, 10 of 14 on third down, four for four in the red zone, 552 total yards. Kalif Raymond, 32 and signed this offseason, led the team in targets, catches and yards. Colston Loveland did not catch a pass. Carolina’s 16.1% pressure rate was the lowest of any defense in Week 1. Johnson spent his postgame on the defense, which allowed 478 yards and 24 first downs and never got Williams on the ground. Bryce Young threw for 361 and three scores in the best opener of his career, with Jalen Coker going for 138 and two. Carolina lost it on three turnovers — a muffed punt by Jimmy Horn Jr., a Tetairoa McMillan fumble on a scoring drive, and a Young interception — and on penalties, including two by Derrick Brown in the red zone that extended Chicago drives and a Trevis Gipson offsides on third-and-2 that would have given Carolina the ball back.

Cardinals 26 Chargers 14 – The week’s biggest underdog won on the road. Los Angeles ran 51 plays to Arizona’s 72 and held the ball 22 minutes to 37. Justin Herbert was 17 of 27 for 209 with a touchdown and an interception and was sacked three times, including on fourth-and-goal from the 3 before halftime when Trey Pipkins, in at left guard, was beaten inside immediately. The Chargers’ fourth quarter was a blocked punt recovered at their own 3, an interception on a double-covered deep ball, a turnover on downs, and a sequence of incompletion, false start, false start and holding that produced second-and-30. Los Angeles gained 117 yards in the second half, and Arizona held the ball for 19 of the first 30 minutes while averaging 4.5 yards a carry against an interior of Dalvin Tomlinson, Jamaree Caldwell and Teair Tart. Omarion Hampton averaged under half a yard before contact on twelve carries. Jim Harbaugh had been 6-0 in NFL season openers. Mike LaFleur became the first Arizona head coach to win his debut since Don Coryell in 1973, in the stadium where he called plays for the Rams last season. Jacoby Brissett threw for 277 and opened the game with a 27-yard completion to Trey McBride. Jeremiyah Love, questionable with an ankle and the entire Arizona backfield after James Conner and Trey Benson went on IR, scored on a 5-yard run. Chad Ryland hit four field goals. Ladd McConkey had 60 yards on the opening drive and 22 the rest of the way before leaving with a hip injury.

Raiders 27 Dolphins 13 – Las Vegas opened with a 16-play, 93-yard drive that took 8:58; they had one touchdown drive of 90-plus yards all of last season, when they finished last in the NFL in both yardage and scoring. Kirk Cousins completed his first ten throws and finished 21 of 30 for 160 with three touchdowns and two interceptions, becoming the 15th quarterback to reach 300 career touchdown passes and moving one ahead of John Elway. Ashton Jeanty, whose ankle the staff said they were counting on him to play through, ran for 102 and caught six for 45 with two of Cousins’ scores. The Raiders did it without Brock Bowers, who did not play following knee surgery; Michael Mayer caught six in his place. Maxx Crosby had 1.5 of the five sacks on Malik Willis and became the third Raider with 70 for his career. Willis threw for 220 and said the sacks were on him. Klint Kubiak got a game ball and then pointed at a fourth quarter in which three of four drives ended in punts and the other in an interception.

Giants 28 Cowboys 20 – John Harbaugh’s first game outside purple. New York held the ball 36:40 to 23:20, punted once all night, and gave Dallas two second-half possessions. Jaxson Dart was 23 of 29 for 230 with three touchdowns and a 134.2 rating, attempted two throws past 20 yards and completed neither, and added 54 rushing yards while conspicuously sliding away from contact. Isaiah Likely caught all eight of his targets for 78 and two scores in his New York debut, and Patrick Ricard was on the field for 27 of the Giants’ 35 rushing plays. Cam Skattebo ran for 81 on 18 carries in his first game back from a broken fibula and dislocated ankle. Malik Nabers, playing 350 days after tearing an ACL, had six catches for 69. Dak Prescott was 22 of 34 for 175 with two touchdown passes and a costly interception — a third-down throwaway before halftime that Jevon Holland ran down, after which New York went 55 yards in 29 seconds. The Giants never sacked Prescott but pressured him nine times, and he went 0 for 8 throwing under pressure against 22 of 26 when clean. It was Dallas’s worst defensive performance by EPA per drive since 2017, and Christian Parker largely declined to blitz despite generating pressure on five of seven blitzes through three quarters. Dallas took eight penalties for 85 yards, including a taunting flag on Javonte Williams that pushed Brandon Aubrey’s extra point back far enough to miss it.

Chiefs 31 Broncos 10 – Kansas City ran 31 times for 220 yards against the defense that took their division away, and the Denver questions now outnumber everyone else’s. Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl MVP who signed a three-year, $43.05 million deal in free agency, carried 23 times for 173 — the most by a Chief since Jamaal Charles went for 226 in 2012, the year before Andy Reid arrived — including a 60-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1 to open the third quarter. Patrick Mahomes, in a brace nine months to the day after tearing his ACL, scored on a 15-yard run on the opening drive and threw for 184 and two scores. Reid also pulled out a play his staff found in black-and-white footage from the 1930s, lining Mahomes up in a three-point stance next to Justin Fields and shovelling to Walker for a two-yard score. Denver finished with 176 yards of offense in Davis Webb’s first game calling plays. Bo Nix threw for 131 with an interception and a lost fumble. Jaylen Waddle, acquired from Miami for a package of picks, caught one pass for two yards, and he and Courtland Sutton combined for three catches and 13 yards. Evan Engram had Denver’s only touchdown. Per Next Gen Stats, the Broncos missed 28 tackles, the most by any defense in a game since at least 2018, and Walker alone forced 14 of them — the most by a Chiefs player in a game over that same span.

Updated Power Rankings

We said in the preseason piece that we’d lean on the summer work and move for injuries and for evidence that actually changes a roster, not for one Sunday. That’s what this is. Seven teams moved more than two spots and five of those moves are injury-driven.

Week 1 DVOA, which Aaron Schatz is publishing with opponent adjustments for the first time this early in a season, lands close to this order at the top and far from it in the middle. It has San Francisco first, Jacksonville second and Baltimore third, with Chicago the top offense and Pittsburgh the top defense. It also produced something that has never happened in the fifty years of the metric: every 1-0 team graded positive and every 0-1 team graded negative. That is a warning as much as a finding. One week of results with no counter-evidence anywhere in the league is exactly the condition under which a rating system and a power ranking will agree with each other for no good reason.

The blended DAVE ratings, which are still 83% preseason forecast on offense and 98% on defense, tell a different story: Seattle first, Buffalo second, the Rams third despite ranking 29th in the week’s raw numbers, and Baltimore ninth.

1. Bills (3) — Beat a legitimate contender on the road, and FTN now has them as Super Bowl favorites.
2. Eagles (4) — Won. The offensive line is a real concern we did not flag in August.
3. Ravens (5) — A three-possession road win. Held here rather than higher because Indianapolis is a middling team and the receiver room is in trouble.
4. Rams (1) — Myles Garrett is on IR for at least four games and they lost by 20. DAVE still has them third, which is the case for not dropping them further.
5. Seahawks (2) — The defense won them the game, and DAVE has them first. Darnold’s hip determines where they sit next week.
6. Chiefs (11) — The largest rise on the board. Mahomes’ knee held, the defense graded second in Week 1 DVOA, and they ran for 220 with an undrafted rookie at left tackle.
7. 49ers (14) — Purdy, Warner and Bosa healthy in the same game, plus a line that led the league in rushing success rate.
8. Texans (7) — Lost at home and scored 31 on the team that led the NFL in yards allowed last year. Fourth in DAVE.
9. Lions (9) — Survived. The interior line is now a crisis.
10. Broncos (6) — 176 yards of offense and 28 missed tackles, the most by any defense in a game since at least 2018. Held at 10 rather than dropped further because one road loss in a division opener is one road loss.
11. Bengals (12) — Four takeaways is not a plan, but the personnel showed up.
12. Patriots (10) — A.J. Brown out several weeks from a thin room.
13. Chargers (8) — Lost at home as a nine-and-a-half-point favorite.
14. Bears (16) — The league’s top offense by DVOA and its 25th defense.
15. Jaguars (17) — Beat a team with no quarterback. Denver will tell us more.
16. Steelers (20) — The No. 1 defense in Week 1 DVOA, against a third-string quarterback. Moved up because we are picking them outright on the road this week and the two positions have to agree.
17. Packers (13) — Still without Parsons and Jacobs, and the line is now the bigger problem.
18. Vikings (19) — Won with their third quarterback.
19. Buccaneers (18) — Mayfield completed 82 percent and lost by himself.
20. Cowboys (15) — The defense was the whole thesis and it produced the worst EPA-per-drive performance the franchise has had since 2017.
21. Saints (21) — Came back from 21-0 on the road and lost by a point.
22. Giants (24) — Controlled a division game wire to wire.
23. Commanders (25) — Lost by two in Philadelphia without Tunsil.
24. Colts (22) — Outgained by 255 yards at home, and Kansas City is next.
25. Panthers (23) — Gave up 59 and 291 on the ground, and graded 32nd on defense.
26. Cardinals (30) — One road win doesn’t fix the quarterback room or the hardest schedule in the league.
27. Raiders (29) — Won without Bowers.
28. Falcons (26) — Held, because Cooper Rush is not the team.
29. Jets (28) — Won a road game by 13 and did it the boring way.
30. Titans (27) — Last in Week 1 DVOA at -88.3%.
31. Browns (31) — Held.
32. Dolphins (32) — Held.

Three Storylines to Watch

1. Mobile quarterbacks are moving under center, and Week 1 says it works.

Baltimore took ten dropbacks from under center against Indianapolis, the most Lamar Jackson has ever had in a game, and he went 6 of 8 for 114 yards from those looks with a 116.7 rating. Derrick Henry gained 130 of his 144 yards on nineteen under-center carries. That isn’t a Baltimore quirk. Washington and Arizona hired coordinators this offseason with the same intention for Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray, and the logic is identical everywhere: shotgun makes play-action legible to a defense, and it flattens the angles on outside zone. Put the quarterback under center and the run game gets harder to diagnose and the boot concepts come free.

The reason this matters beyond scheme trivia is that it was supposed to be the thing these quarterbacks couldn’t do. Jackson has taken about five percent of his career snaps under center, the second-fewest of any quarterback with fifty starts since 2018 — and he has the highest NFL QBR from under center over that stretch at 81.2. Eight seasons and three coordinators went by before anyone built a plan around it. Cincinnati, meanwhile, went the other way: Joe Burrow’s evolution was supposed to include more under-center work, and the Bengals ran nine such plays with a zero percent success rate.

If Week 1 is any indication, the Bears will be the RedZone must-watch team of the season — Schatz’s preseason DVOA projections had Chicago’s offense second in the league and its defense thirty-second, the widest split of any team, and the opener produced exactly that.

2. Three defenses changed their coverage identity, and two of them got torched.

Houston played zone on 24 of Josh Allen’s 32 dropbacks. In the two previous Texans wins over Buffalo, they played man nearly 39 percent of the time and Allen went 6 of 22 for 94 yards with an interception against it. Allen posted a rating over 129 against both coverages Sunday. Cleveland, under new coordinator Mike Rutenberg, replaced the aggressive man scheme Jim Schwartz ran with passive zone, blitzed three times, generated no quick pressures, and watched Trevor Lawrence go 10 of 12 for 179 and three touchdowns on throws past ten yards. Pittsburgh played nothing but zone against Atlanta and graded out as the No. 1 defense in Week 1 DVOA, though Cooper Rush is not the test that number implies.

All three now face a different problem in Week 2. Houston gets Burrow. Cleveland gets Baker Mayfield coming off an 82 percent completion day. Pittsburgh gets Drake Maye, whose three fourth-quarter interceptions all came from abandoning the underneath throws a zone defense is happy to concede. Patrick Graham also gets Joey Porter Jr. back from a back injury, and Porter is a press-man specialist, which is a strange fit for what the Steelers just showed.

3. Four teams spent heavily on defense this offseason. One week in, the returns look nothing alike.

Cincinnati sent a first-round pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence and signed Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger. Dallas added Rashan Gary, Von Miller, Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant and two first-round picks, and hired Christian Parker from Philadelphia. Buffalo fired Sean McDermott and handed the defense to Jim Leonhard. Houston returned the unit that finished first in yards allowed and second in scoring.

Cincinnati got four takeaways and four sacks, though against a quarterback who put the ball on the ground three times by himself. Dallas produced its worst performance by EPA per drive since 2017 and declined to blitz despite generating pressure on five of seven attempts. Buffalo blitzed 31 percent, got very little home, and left holes behind it. Houston gave up 7.9 yards a play, the most under DeMeco Ryans, and got no sacks from Danielle Hunter or Will Anderson Jr.

The cleanest read available is that none of these units has been tested the way it will be. Cincinnati goes to Houston. Dallas hosts a Washington front that just made Philadelphia uncomfortable. Buffalo hosts Detroit on a short week. The spending was the easy part.

Week 2 Games

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Three games this week have the market and the model on opposite sides, after only one in Week 1 — and one of them is not close. DraftKings has Denver favored by 2.5 at home against Jacksonville; ESPN’s predictor gives the Broncos a 36.9% chance of winning. Detroit at Buffalo carries the highest total of the week at 53.5. San Francisco is laying the most points at 13.5.

Thursday September 17th

Detroit at Buffalo – Buffalo’s first game in its new stadium, and Detroit walks in on four days’ rest after an overtime game. The Lions are the more banged-up team by a distance: Christian Mahogany was carted off with a knee injury on top of Cade Mays being out 8-10 weeks and Seth McLaughlin in concussion protocol, which leaves the interior line thin behind the thin, and both starting safeties remain ineligible until Week 5. Jahmyr Gibbs took 29 carries in Week 1 and now plays again in five days. On the other side, Buffalo’s offense looked like the version that wins games nobody expects them to — Kincaid’s route share jumped to 71%, DJ Moore cleared a hundred in his debut, and the 13-personnel wrinkle at 36.8% of snaps was not on anyone’s tape. The question is whether Jim Leonhard’s defense can hold up, and Jared Goff is a poor opponent to find out against. Goff doesn’t create pressure problems for himself and he punishes coverage busts, which Buffalo had several of in Houston. Buffalo is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 53.5, and given a 66.9% chance of winning. That total is the highest on the board and says the market expects neither defense to settle this.

Match-Up to Watch: Dalton Kincaid and the Buffalo tight end grouping against a Detroit defense missing Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. Kincaid put up 130 yards against the league’s No. 1 EPA defense. Detroit is starting its third and fourth safeties.

Our Pick: Buffalo.

Sunday September 20th

Carolina at Atlanta – The first division game of the year for both, and both arrive damaged in opposite ways. Carolina scored 37 and gave up 59, with Bryce Young throwing for 361 in the best opener of his career behind a line still missing both starting tackles into late October. Atlanta scored 13 with Cooper Rush and got 173 of its 238 yards from Bijan Robinson. Whether Michael Penix Jr. is available is the entire game. If he is, Atlanta’s passing offense goes from an active liability to something Carolina’s defense — which just allowed 291 rushing yards and could not get a quarterback on the ground — has to account for. If it’s Rush again, Atlanta needs a defensive performance like the one it just gave, holding Pittsburgh to 264 yards, and a cleaner day than nine penalties for 96 yards. Carolina is a 1.5 point road favorite with a total of 43.5, but Atlanta is given a 55.4% chance of winning. That is the tightest line on the board and one of three games this week where the number and the model disagree.

Key to the Game: Atlanta’s quarterback. Everything else in this matchup is legible; this isn’t.

Our Pick: Carolina, on the assumption Atlanta doesn’t get Penix back. If he plays, we’d flip it.

New Orleans at Baltimore – Baltimore is a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 46.5, and given a 76.2% chance of winning. Our pick here.

Match-Up to Watch: Nate Wiggins against Chris Olave.

Minnesota at Chicago – Chicago scored 59 and allowed 478 yards; Minnesota came back from 12 down in the fourth with its third quarterback. Kyler Murray’s status is the swing — O’Connell said he seemed fine after the game but gave no timetable, and O’Connell had named Carson Wentz the backup ahead of J.J. McCarthy only last week, so an absence means Wentz rather than the 2024 first-round pick. Brian Flores against Caleb Williams is the real interest. Williams completed 58.1 percent last season with the worst completion percentage over expectation among regular starters, and in Week 1 he posted the third-best CPOE of the weekend against a Carolina defense that generated the lowest pressure rate in football. Flores will not be that accommodating. Chicago’s defense is the counterweight: Kyler Gordon can’t play until Week 5, Coby Bryant isn’t expected until January, and Jaylon Johnson is working through an arm injury. Chicago scored 59 without a single catch from Colston Loveland, who we named a preseason breakout and who remains the piece Johnson built his Detroit offenses around. Chicago is a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 49.5, and given a 59.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Caleb Williams against Brian Flores’ pressure looks. Flores blitzes more than anyone, and the entire question about Williams is whether the accuracy holds when the pocket isn’t clean.

Our Pick: Chicago.

Cincinnati at Houston – The cleanest test of the week. Our published line on Cincinnati was that the defense doesn’t have to be good, it has to be average, and Week 1 produced four takeaways from a Tampa Bay team that handed them over. Houston does not give the ball away often, and just ran 73 plays and held it for 36 minutes against Buffalo. If the Bengals’ defensive investment is real rather than opportunistic, this is where it shows. Houston’s defense led the NFL in yards allowed last season and gave up 36 in the opener, surrendering 7.9 yards a play and 400-plus total yards for the first time under DeMeco Ryans since late 2024. Cincinnati’s own second half was the second-worst offensive half of the week by EPA, and the Bengals ran nine plays from under center without a single success. Houston is a 3 point favorite with a total of 46.5, and given a 55.5% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Mike Gesicki and Cincinnati’s tight ends against Houston’s safeties. Dalton Kincaid went for 130 on that group last week, and Gesicki drew seven targets in Week 1 with Ja’Marr Chase bracketed.

Our Pick: Houston.

Pittsburgh at New England – New England’s line let Drake Maye get pressured on 38.1% of dropbacks against Seattle, and now T.J. Watt arrives off a two-sack, pick-six afternoon with Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig and Cam Heyward alongside him. A.J. Brown is out several weeks with a high ankle sprain, leaving Maye with Doubs, Douglas, Hollins, Kyle Williams and Efton Chism after Kayshon Boutte was traded to Houston in camp. Maye just threw three interceptions forcing throws into coverage. Pittsburgh played exclusively zone against Atlanta per Next Gen Stats, which is the coverage that invites a quarterback to be patient, the exact thing Maye said he stopped being. Joey Porter Jr. missed Week 1 with a back issue and is a press-man specialist, so his return would change what Patrick Graham can call. Rodgers pushed the ball further downfield than he has as a Steeler and completed 60 percent doing it. New England is a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 41.5, and given a 65.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: T.J. Watt against New England’s tackles. Will Campbell graded well outside two penalties; Alijah Vera-Tucker had a rough debut and Jared Wilson hurt his hand.

Our Pick: Pittsburgh. Five and a half points is a lot to lay with a team that lost at home, lost its best receiver, and could not run the ball, against the best edge group in the league.

Green Bay at New York Jets – Green Bay’s line problem is now the headline. Jordan Love threw for 387 behind a front that gave up four sacks, two fumbles and fifteen quarterback hits with Aaron Banks inactive, and Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs are both still unavailable. He draws Aaron Glenn, who called the defense himself in Week 1 and got three sacks with a rebuilt front seven. The Jets won their opener the boring way — 39 minutes of possession, a 19-play drive, Geno Smith throwing 24 times without a turnover. Green Bay has now lost five straight dating to last season, four of them after leading in the second half by multiple scores, and Matt LaFleur signed an extension in between. Green Bay is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 44.5, and given a 61.7% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Green Bay’s interior line against the Jets’ rebuilt front. T’Vondre Sweat, Harrison Phillips and David Onyemata inside against Donovan Jennings making his second career start.

Our Pick: Green Bay.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay – Cleveland managed 272 yards, went 1 for 8 on third down and took 11 penalties in Jacksonville. Tampa Bay handed Cincinnati four turnovers and lost a game it otherwise played well, with Baker Mayfield completing 82 percent of his throws and fumbling three times. The Browns defense was supposed to be the floor under this season — first in passing EPA last year — and instead played passive zone, blitzed three times and never pressured Trevor Lawrence. Jared Verse did not record a hurry. Deshaun Watson threw an interception five plays into the year, and Todd Monken declined afterward to put a quarterback change on the table. Tampa Bay is an 8.5 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 77.6% chance of winning. That is the second-largest number of the week and the joint-lowest total.

Match-Up to Watch: Cleveland’s front against Baker Mayfield’s ball security. Tampa put it on the ground four times in a game it led in most other categories.

Our Pick: Tampa Bay.

Philadelphia at Tennessee – Philadelphia won by two at home while its offensive line gave up three sacks, committed four penalties and produced a 59-yard third quarter. Tennessee was outgained 367-195 at home by the Jets. Cam Ward threw for 140 and was chased all afternoon. Jalen Hurts threw three touchdowns down the middle of the field in Sean Mannion’s debut, the throw Philadelphia had stopped making under Kevin Patullo. The Eagles’ defense is the reason to expect a comfortable afternoon: Fangio, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the secondary, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis up front. DeJean had the worst game of his career in Week 1 and gets a much softer test. Philadelphia is a 7 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 70.1% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis against Tennessee’s interior. Ward has now been pressured into two of the worst full-game passing lines of his young career against defensive fronts a tier below this one.

Our Pick: Philadelphia.

Jacksonville at Denver – Jacksonville’s best offensive performance of 2025 was Week 16 in Denver, when it scored 34 and beat the AFC’s top seed on the road — the only team to beat the Broncos by double digits all year. They open this season having scored on six of their first seven drives against a Cleveland defense that played passive zone and never pressured Trevor Lawrence, which is the opposite of what Denver usually does. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks last year, eleven clear of the field, though Jonathon Cooper remains on the Commissioner’s Exempt List. Lawrence was sacked once by Cleveland and that offensive line, a projected weakness, held up all afternoon. What Denver did Monday complicates the whole picture: 176 yards of offense in Davis Webb’s play-calling debut, and a defense that gave up 220 rushing yards and missed 28 tackles, the most in a game by any defense since at least 2018. Jacksonville’s three-man backfield of Bhayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Ameer Abdullah ran for 121 on 25 carries with a 52% success rate. Denver is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 44.5, but ESPN gives the Broncos only a 36.9% chance of winning — the widest gap between a line and the model we have seen this season.

Match-Up to Watch: Jacksonville’s run game against Alex Singleton, DJ Jones and the middle of the Denver defense. The Broncos have now been run on by Buffalo, New England and Kansas City in consecutive meaningful games.

Our Pick: Jacksonville.

Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers – Las Vegas beat Miami without Brock Bowers, who is out following a knee procedure, and now starts the hard part of its schedule. The Chargers lost at home as a nine-and-a-half-point favorite and come out of it with Ladd McConkey nursing a hip and Elijah Molden a hamstring, which matters more than usual given what the offense looked like once McConkey left the field. Arizona sacked Herbert three times, held the ball for 19 of the first 30 minutes, and averaged 4.5 yards a carry in the first half against an interior of Dalvin Tomlinson, Jamaree Caldwell and Teair Tart. Omarion Hampton averaged under half a yard before contact. Maxx Crosby is a worse problem than Walter Nolen and Josh Sweat, and Kwity Paye — signed in free agency specifically to be the second rusher Las Vegas has never had — opened with two sacks, five pressures and five quarterback hits. On the other side, Cousins threw for 160 yards on 30 attempts and Las Vegas’ offense ran through Jeanty and a long opening drive. The Chargers are a 7 point favorite with a total of 43.5, and given a 68.7% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Maxx Crosby against the Chargers’ interior. Crosby has 70 career sacks and Los Angeles is elite at tackle and unproven inside.

Our Pick: Los Angeles.

Seattle at Arizona – The defending champions travel to face the team that just won at SoFi. Seattle’s offense produced a field goal through three quarters with Drew Lock in for an injured Darnold and a skill group missing Zach Charbonnet, Tory Horton and Robbie Ouzts, and the defense won the game with three fourth-quarter interceptions. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, had 122 yards on eight catches with a backup throwing to him. Darnold’s hip is the story: Macdonald said tests ruled out a break, but if Lock starts, Seattle’s ranking is being carried entirely by Mike Macdonald. Arizona controlled the ball for 37 minutes against the Chargers and Jacoby Brissett threw for 277 without a turnover. Trey McBride and a healthy Jeremiyah Love give Mike LaFleur two pieces to build around, and Arizona’s front got home three times. Seattle is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 41.5, but Arizona is given a 52.9% chance of winning — the third game this week where the number and the model disagree.

Match-Up to Watch: Trey McBride against Seattle’s linebackers and safeties. Nick Emmanwori was inactive in Week 1 with an ankle, and McBride is the one Arizona skill player who grades a 9.

Our Pick: Seattle.

Washington at Dallas – Washington’s second straight division game after losing by two in Philadelphia, and Dallas’ first home game after losing at the Giants. Both defenses are the story. Dallas rebuilt its entire defensive side and then turned in its worst performance by EPA per drive since 2017, with Christian Parker largely declining to blitz despite generating pressure on five of seven blitzes through three quarters. Washington got three sacks and five quarterback hits without Jer’Zhan Newton, with Sonny Styles and Odafe Oweh both showing up, and held Hurts to 203 yards. Jayden Daniels was 18 of 34 for 164 behind a line missing Laremy Tunsil, and Terry McLaurin finished without a catch. Dak Prescott went 22 of 26 when kept clean in Week 1 and 0 for 8 under pressure. Dallas also lost Malik Hooker to a fractured forearm, which may force them to move Caleb Downs — the 11th overall pick, who played 61 of 69 snaps between safety and the slot and produced seven tackles, a sack and a forced fumble — out of the slot role he was drafted to play. Dallas is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 50.5, and given a 63% chance of winning. That total is the second-highest of the week.

Match-Up to Watch: Washington’s pass rush against a Dallas line that kept Prescott clean most of the night. The Giants pressured him nine times without a sack and it decided the game.

Our Pick: Washington. The model has Dallas at 63% off a defensive performance that was the worst this franchise has produced in nine years, and Washington’s front just made Philadelphia uncomfortable for four quarters.

Miami at San Francisco – San Francisco beat the preseason favorite by 20 and now gets the roster Clay graded 32nd on both sides of the ball. Malik Willis was sacked five times and threw for 220. Miami’s defense allowed a 16-play, 93-yard opening drive. The 49ers had four blown blocks as a unit, led the league in rushing success rate at 56.7%, and got Bosa and Warner back at full speed. The question is whether Kyle Shanahan has to spend anything here, and whether Brock Purdy stays upright, since the entire San Francisco projection rests on him playing seventeen games rather than nine. San Francisco is a 13.5 point favorite with a total of 45.5, and given a 90.8% chance of winning — the largest number of the week by a distance.

Key to the Game: Whether San Francisco can win this cheaply. They played Friday in Australia and now play a home game on a short turnaround against the league’s weakest roster.

Our Pick: San Francisco.

Indianapolis at Kansas City – Indianapolis was outgained by 255 yards at home, graded 30th in Week 1 DVOA, and now goes to Arrowhead before hosting Houston. Daniel Jones, nine months off an Achilles, went 19 of 31 for 166 with an interception and ran once for four yards, and Schatz’s preseason model had already built in a first-month penalty for exactly that. Jonathan Taylor ran for 98 and two scores against Baltimore and remains the reason to watch. Kansas City’s defense graded second in the league in Week 1, holding Denver to 176 yards and limiting Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton to three catches for thirteen between them — and it did that after losing rookie corner Mansoor Delane, the sixth overall pick, to a shoulder injury on the third play of the game. The Chiefs’ vulnerability is at left tackle, where Josh Simmons is out and undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson is now on tape for the first time. Kansas City is a 6.5 point favorite with a total of 47.5, and given a 75.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Indianapolis’ edge rush against Kahlil Benson. Denver got very little out of that matchup and there’s now a full game of film on him.

Our Pick: Kansas City.

Monday September 21st

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams – The Rams host their home opener at 0-1 without Myles Garrett, who had arthroscopic knee surgery and will miss at least four games. Aaron Donald unretired into a defense that was supposed to pair him with Garrett, and how much he can give at 35 having not played since 2023 is now a live question rather than a luxury. Stafford was held to 155 yards and stopped on a fourth-down sneak from the 1. The Giants just controlled a division game for sixty minutes with Jaxson Dart throwing nothing deep, Isaiah Likely catching all eight of his targets, and Patrick Ricard on the field for most of the run game. New York’s corners remain the problem — Dru Phillips drew three interference penalties and Paulson Adebo was beaten twice on three targets — and Puka Nacua is a harder assignment than the one that just exposed them. The Rams are a 7 point favorite with a total of 48.5, and given a 66.3% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Puka Nacua against the Giants’ secondary. Nacua was limited to one long reception by San Francisco, and New York does not currently have a corner it can leave alone.

Our Pick: Los Angeles.

The post 2026 NFL: Previewing Week 2 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The season will culminate with Super Bowl 61, February 14th, 2027 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood — meaning the preseason favorite is chasing a Lombardi in its own building.

We preview each of the 16 games on the opening slate, as all 32 teams will be in-action.

Our full season preview and initial Power Rankings can be found here.

Week 1 Games

All lines from FanDuel. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Wednesday September 9th

New England at Seattle – A Super Bowl LX rematch to open the year, which the league does not get to script very often. Seattle won 14 games, lost three others by a combined nine points, and DVOA rated them the third-best champion it has ever measured. So why do we have them second and not first? Klint Kubiak left for Las Vegas, Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City, and Brian Fleury has never called plays at any level of pro football. Zach Charbonnet was moved to the reserve/PUP list Sunday and will miss at least the first four games, Nick Emmanwori opened camp on PUP and is questionable, and the entire backfield has been banged up all summer. Seattle also signed Terrion Arnold after Detroit released him, though he isn’t expected to be available Wednesday. That’s a lot to put on Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Game 1. The defense should still travel — Macdonald was the unanimous No. 1 defensive play-caller in CBS’s poll, the only coach in either poll to be listed first on every ballot — though losing Boye Mafe to Cincinnati costs them something off the edge. New England is the more interesting evaluation to me. Drake Maye led the entire NFL in both EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expectation last year, and it wasn’t close on the second one. Then the postseason came and the offense got overwhelmed by a run of elite defenses. Was that the quarterback or the supporting cast? A.J. Brown was brought in to answer that, and the secondary — Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Craig Woodson, Kevin Byard — is still the best unit on the roster. New England also lost a long list of defensive contributors, and I’m not sure they’re deep enough up-front to hold up over 17 games. Seattle is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 44.5, and given a 62.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: A.J. Brown against Devon Witherspoon. New England traded for Brown to give Maye a receiver who wins without scheme help. Witherspoon grades a 9 and just signed for $132 million. Somebody’s offseason thesis takes a hit on Wednesday night.

Thursday September 10th

San Francisco vs LA Rams (East Melbourne, Australia) – The preseason favorite opens 10,000 miles from home. The Rams are the closest thing to a superteam the league has had in a while: Clay grades them with both the No. 1 offense and the No. 1 defense, the only team in his guide to lead both, and Les Snead got there by trading Jared Verse and three picks for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Matthew Stafford is the reigning MVP at 38. And on Sunday they added Aaron Donald, who unretired on a one-year, $20 million deal with incentives that can push it to $30 million. He hasn’t played since 2023, he’s 35, and he spent his first day back in a team meeting and individual drills while the staff ramps him up — so whether he’s on the field in Melbourne is a separate question from whether he’s on the roster. But pairing him with Garrett is the kind of thing that gets a team declared a champion in August, which is exactly when it means the least. The problem this week is who actually plays. Puka Nacua practiced Sunday and is questionable with a groin injury, which is better news than it looked a week ago, though the off-field questions are still attached. Alaric Jackson is questionable while managing his blood clot issue. Myles Garrett sat out Sunday’s practice with the knee and is also questionable. You can subtract enough pieces from a superteam that it stops looking like one, and an international opener is a strange place to find out. San Francisco won 12 games last year and a road playoff game in Philadelphia. In most divisions they’d be expected to host in January; in this one they’re penciled in third. The offense has real talent and real mileage — Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk, with Trent Williams at 38 — and Christian Kirk went on injured reserve Sunday with a calf injury. Kittle is expected to practice this week as he pushes to play in Australia, which tells you how much this offense needs him, coming off an Achilles tear. Christian McCaffrey was excellent as a receiver out of the backfield but averaged 3.9 yards per carry as a runner, well below his norms. If Brock Purdy plays 17 games this is a contender. If he plays nine again, it isn’t. Watch 2026 second-rounder De’Zhaun Stribling, who has pushed for a role with a lot of targets vacated, though a shoulder injury kept him out of the preseason finale. The Rams are 3.5 point favorites with a total of 48.5, and given a 57.6% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Myles Garrett against Trent Williams. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year, coming off a record 23 sacks and managing knee swelling all camp, against a 38-year-old left tackle with six straight 85-plus grades. Both of them are being asked to be what they were, and neither has anything left to prove except availability.

Sunday September 13th

Buffalo at Houston – Probably the best game on the early slate, and two teams we have in the AFC field. Joe Brady’s first game as a head coach comes against a defense that finished first in total defense and second in scoring last season after DeMeco Ryans handed play-calling to Matt Burke. Buffalo’s offense should be fine — Clay grades it second in the league, DJ Moore arrives from Chicago to join Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman — both of whom are questionable, Coleman with a foot and toe issue — and James Cook is the reigning rushing champion. The question is the other side of the ball, and it’s the whole reason Sean McDermott isn’t there anymore. Buffalo finished first in the NFL in rushing offense by EPA and 31st in rushing defense, the widest split of any contender, and then turned it over four times in a divisional-round loss in Denver. Now Jim Leonhard installs a new scheme. Nineteen different defensive play-callers drew a vote in CBS’s poll — the widest spread of any category they surveyed — and Leonhard finished with exactly one point, from a single tenth-place ballot. Clay also grades the Buffalo linebacker corps a 3, the lowest mark of any contender at any position. Houston’s side is C.J. Stroud, who ranked seventh in EPA per dropback from October on behind a bad line and no run game, and then had a rough January. The entire offseason went into helping him: Braden Smith, Wyatt Teller, David Montgomery from Detroit. Smith was carted off the practice field in late August and is questionable, which is not what you want from the tackle you signed to fix the problem, and the receiver room already lost Jayden Higgins and Tank Dell. Montgomery giving this offense a real play-action game is the likeliest bridge between average Stroud and top-third Stroud. Buffalo is our AFC favorite. This is a genuine test of that. Buffalo is a 1.5 point road favorite with a total of 44.5, and given a 54.2% chance of winning — tied with Minnesota for the tightest number on the board, which feels about right.

Key to the Game: Early downs against David Montgomery. Buffalo finished 31st in rushing defense by EPA and is installing a new scheme under a coordinator who drew one point in CBS’s poll. Houston imported Montgomery specifically to make its play-action game work. If the Bills can’t get Houston into obvious passing downs, Rousseau and Chubb never get to rush.

Baltimore at Indianapolis – We will have a larger write-up on this game later. Baltimore is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 48.5, and given a 61.4% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Lamar Jackson under center against Lou Anarumo’s pressure packages.

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati – Cincinnati finally spent on defense, and the first assignment is a good one. The Bengals sent the No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence and added Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger, and now Lawrence lines up against Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, who allowed almost nothing between them last season. Here’s the thing about Cincinnati that keeps getting overstated: this defense doesn’t have to be good. It has to be average, which it hasn’t been since 2022. With Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Clay’s No. 3 offense and the second-easiest schedule in the league, average defense probably gets them into the playoffs. Chase missed practice in late August with a knee issue and is questionable, which is the one thing that would change all of that. Burrow is also one of only four quarterbacks voted into Sando’s Tier 1, and everybody spent August discussing Lamar Jackson’s missed games while ignoring that Burrow has missed a comparable number over the same stretch. Tampa Bay arrives with terrible vibes and real talent. Baker Mayfield called the club’s reported two-year, $100-million-plus offer disrespectful and will play out his deal, Vita Vea has requested a trade and is holding in, Mike Evans left for San Francisco and Lavonte David retired. A healthy Mayfield with a chip on his shoulder is not the worst thing that can happen to an offense. Emeka Egbuka drew 127 targets as a rookie and is questionable with a toe injury that Todd Bowles expects him to play through. Zac Robinson is the new coordinator. Watch Bucky Irving, who averaged 5.4 yards a carry over 207 attempts as a rookie and 3.4 over 173 last year in an injury-shortened season. One of those is real. Cincinnati is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 51.5, and given a 60.1% chance of winning. That total is the highest of the week, which tells you what the market thinks of both defenses.

Match-Up to Watch: Dexter Lawrence against Tampa Bay’s interior. Cincinnati gave up the No. 10 overall pick for exactly this — a player who can wreck a game from the inside — and Tampa’s line was the reason we put them fourth in our offensive line rankings. The Bengals’ entire season rests on the defense being average. This is the first data point.

Cleveland at Jacksonville – Todd Monken finally landed a top job, a hire that drove respected DC Jim Schwartz out of the building, and he has settled a four-way quarterback competition by naming Deshaun Watson the Week 1 starter, over Shedeur Sanders and rookie Taylen Green — Dillon Gabriel went on injured reserve with a back injury Monken says isn’t serious. None of the four had a good August, and Watson ranked 31st of 35 in Sando’s tiers with some of the harshest commentary in the entire survey. Which makes the real question whether this is a competition or an audition for the 2027 draft — and if Sanders is starting by the second half of the season and looking like he can hold the job in 2027, that’s a productive year for Cleveland regardless of the record. Here’s the odd part: the Browns defense is legitimately good. Cleveland finished first in the NFL in passing defense by EPA per dropback last season, the 2025 draft delivered Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger plus Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr., and Jared Verse arrived in the Garrett trade as a cost-controlled young edge who actually fits the timeline. The offense finished 32nd in that same metric — dead last, and not close. Jacksonville is the popular sleeper of the summer on the strength of not losing from Week 11 through Week 18. I’m out on it. There’s a turnover-luck component to that closing kick nobody should ignore, they lost Travis Etienne and All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd, and there was no cap space and no draft capital to replace either after the Travis Hunter trade. Their only premium pick went to a rotational blocking tight end. It comes down to how you evaluate Trevor Lawrence, who ranked fourth in the NFL in total EPA and success rate from November on and drew MVP votes, but still finished 27th in completion percentage over expectation on the full year. Hunter as a full-time corner on a defense that ranked first in EPA per play down the stretch is the fun part. Quinn Ewers came over from Miami to back up. Jacksonville is a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 67% chance of winning. That’s a lot of respect for a team we have going 9-8, and not much for a Cleveland defense that finished first in the league against the pass — though a 40.5 total says the market does believe in that defense, just not in anything the Browns do with the ball.

Match-Up to Watch: Joshua Hines-Allen against Cleveland’s tackles. Hines-Allen grades a 9 on a defense that ranked first in EPA per play from Week 11 on. Watson has not held up under pressure in years, and Monken’s protection plan is the most interesting thing about a game that could otherwise be unwatchable.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – Aaron Rodgers turns 43 in December and has announced this is the last one. Mike McCarthy inherits a franchise that never had a losing season in 20 years under Mike Tomlin, and he inherits a quarterback whose arm is fine and whose legs are gone. In 2025 Rodgers posted both the lowest average time to throw and the lowest average depth of target in the NFL, finished 23rd in EPA per dropback and 33rd in success rate, and has basically stopped working the middle of the field. Expect defenses to crowd the line and dare him to get it out immediately, over and over, and expect Pittsburgh to lose more of these than the front office wants to admit if he can’t. The supporting cast is better than people realize — Michael Pittman Jr. and Rico Dowdle join DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth, with first-round tackle Max Iheanachor added. Pittman (hamstring) and Metcalf are both expected to play, and Jalen Ramsey has been activated off PUP. And Clay grades this the No. 3 defense in football, with the best edge group in the league in T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig and a 37-year-old Cameron Heyward who still grades a 9. Which is a rough draw for Atlanta, who as of this writing still haven’t named a starter. Michael Penix Jr. sat out the preseason finale but has said he believes he’ll be available here, so the assumption that this was Tua Tagovailoa’s job by default no longer holds — and given both of their injury histories, Kevin Stefanski may end up using both before October. Atlanta also traded for Gervon Dexter Sr. on Sunday to shore up the interior, though he arrives with a hamstring issue. Right tackle is a limiting issue on a roster where both quarterbacks are left-handed and Jawaan Taylor is protecting the blind side. Kevin Stefanski’s job here is to keep whoever plays upright and turnover-free. Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts can handle a fair amount of the rest. People forget Pittsburgh won this division at 10-7. They are not an afterthought. Pittsburgh is a 3 point favorite with a total of 42.5, and given a 58.1% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: T.J. Watt against Jawaan Taylor. Both Atlanta quarterbacks are left-handed, which makes right tackle the blind side, and right tackle was already the weak point on this roster. Watt has spent a decade making that a problem for people. If Tagovailoa gets hit early, this is over quickly.

New Orleans at Detroit – Detroit has the easiest schedule in football by both models, which is why Clay projects 12 wins and the NFL’s second-best record, and this is a soft start to it. The catch is that the Lions are the banged-up team. Cade Mays, signed specifically to fix the interior line, is out 8-10 weeks with a wrist injury. Terrion Arnold was released after criminal charges and has signed in Seattle. Both starting safeties are now on the reserve/PUP list — Kerby Joseph with a knee, Brian Branch with an Achilles — meaning neither is eligible until Week 5, and Sharp had already dropped Detroit three spots on the secondary before that. Backup center Seth McLaughlin is in concussion protocol, so the interior is thin behind the thin. Taylor Decker requested his release, which moves Penei Sewell to left tackle. There’s plenty here still — Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson and Jack Campbell all grade 9, Sam LaPorta an 8, and Jared Goff keeps posting numbers. He’s another quarterback who isn’t elite and is unquestionably good enough to win with. Jahmyr Gibbs no longer has David Montgomery to share the load, and whether Isiah Pacheco has anything left is a real question — he’s questionable with a back injury on top of the knee. New Orleans was the under-the-radar team that nearly became our NFC South pick. The Saints went 5-4 in games Tyler Shough started and 1-7 otherwise, added Travis Etienne and guard David Edwards, drafted Jordyn Tyson eighth overall and paid Chris Olave up to $132 million. Tyson is on injured reserve with a hamstring and out roughly two months. The backfield is worse off than that: Alvin Kamara sprained an MCL and is out at least a month, and Devin Neal and Ty Chandler are both on IR, so Etienne is carrying it alone. Kellen Moore is in Year 2 with a defined starter and Brandon Staley runs the defense. The problem: Shough had the league’s worst pressure-to-sack ratio and a bottom-ten off-target rate, and the Saints have no depth in the trenches with Bryan Bresee lost for the year. Hutchinson against that line is the matchup. Detroit is a 7 point favorite with a total of 49.5, and given a 73.5% chance of winning — the largest number of the early window.

Match-Up to Watch: Aidan Hutchinson against a Saints line with no depth. Tyler Shough had the worst pressure-to-sack ratio in the NFL last season, and Bryan Bresee is already lost for the year. Hutchinson grades a 9 and was playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level before his 2024 injury. This is the mismatch of the early window.

Chicago at Carolina – Two 2025 division winners, and two teams we’re projecting to come back to the pack. Chicago forced a league-leading 33 turnovers, which papered over a defense that was ordinary down to down, and then the offseason went sideways: Drew Dalman surprise-retired, DJ Moore was traded to Buffalo, Luther Burden III missed the preseason with a groin injury but was running routes last week, and the secondary took two real hits: Kyler Gordon went to the reserve/PUP list Sunday and can’t play until Week 5, while Coby Bryant isn’t expected back until January. Jaylon Johnson is questionable with an arm injury on top of that. Sharp ranks the schedule third-hardest. I still believe in Ben Johnson — he fixed the sack problem in one offseason and Chicago graded fifth in both PFF pass blocking and run blocking — but Caleb Williams completed 58.1 percent of his throws last season, nowhere near Johnson’s stated 70 percent goal, and ranked 34th in completion percentage over expectation while setting the franchise passing record and winning Chicago’s first playoff game since 2011. The gap between the highlight throws and the routine ones is the entire Year 3 question. Watch Colston Loveland; Johnson built his Detroit offenses around tight end usage and this is the first year he has the personnel. Carolina won the division on a three-way 8-9 tiebreaker, then had the best offseason in the South — Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd, Rasheed Walker, first-round tackle Monroe Freeling — and has been bitten harder by injuries than any team in football. Nic Scourton and rookie receiver Chris Brazzell are out for the year. Both starting tackles are out too — Taylor Moton with a blood clot and Ikem Ekwonu with a knee — and neither is expected back before late October. We took the over on Clay’s 5.9-win projection anyway, mostly on Derrick Brown, Lloyd and Tetairoa McMillan — though Brown, Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips are all carrying questionable tags into the opener, which is a lot of the reason we liked them. Chicago is a 2.5 point road favorite with a total of 47.5, and given a 61.7% chance of winning. Two division champions, and the market has the road team laying points.

Match-Up to Watch: Derrick Brown against Chicago’s replacement for Drew Dalman. Dalman’s retirement in August dropped the Bears from a top-three line to eighth in our rankings, and Brown grades a 9 as the one Carolina defender who can win a game by himself. Ben Johnson’s line schemes are the tell on this offense. First test is a hard one.

New York Jets at Tennessee – Two teams nobody will watch, and both are more interesting than the records will be. New York did not record a single interception in 2025. Not one. They also finished 32nd in passing defense by EPA per dropback, and responded by rebuilding most of the defensive starting lineup and having Aaron Glenn take over play-calling himself. Clay now grades the Jets’ linebackers eighth-best in the league and the defense 10th, with Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety and T’Vondre Sweat, Harrison Phillips and David Onyemata inside, plus a draft class of David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr. and D’Angelo Ponds. The offense is the problem: Geno Smith is back where his career started, coming off a league-high 17 interceptions and a 34th-place finish in EPA per dropback, and Clay projects 14 more picks. Tennessee gives Cam Ward the most credible staff the franchise has put together in a decade — Robert Saleh, Gus Bradley on defense, Brian Daboll on offense — plus Carnell Tate at No. 4 overall to go with Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley. Ward finished 33rd of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, success rate and yards per dropback as a rookie, and improved in all three over the back half of the year while nearly halving his sack rate after Brian Callahan was fired. Jeffery Simmons grades a 9 and projects for a league-leading 9.3 sacks among interior linemen. Cedric Gray, fifth in the NFL with 160 tackles as a first-time starter, is the centerpiece of the new zone scheme. Six wins isn’t a playoff team. It’s a real step. Tennessee is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 39.5, and given a 61.8% chance of winning. That’s the lowest total on the board, and nobody should be surprised.

Match-Up to Watch: Jeffery Simmons against the Jets’ interior. Simmons projects for a league-leading 9.3 sacks among interior linemen, and Geno Smith threw 17 picks last season while being asked to hold the ball. Interior pressure is how you turn that into turnovers, which is the one thing this Jets defense could not generate at all in 2025.

Washington at Philadelphia – A division game in Week 1 with real stakes for both. Philadelphia won 11 games and a division title and spent the entire offseason unhappy about it. A.J. Brown is gone, Kevin Patullo was fired, and Sean Mannion — who nobody can evaluate yet — installs the Shanahan-McVay system. Fangio is still there, and the defense is the reason to believe: Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the secondary, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis up front, Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun both grading 9. The safety group grades a 3 and Jonathan Greenard’s pectoral injury has him listed out for this one, so it isn’t airtight. Cooper DeJean is questionable as well. On Jalen Hurts, the criticism has gotten excessive. He’s been to two Super Bowls, won one, was its MVP, and has three Pro Bowls. Ruiz’s film read is that the 2025 efficiency decline traced to a bad scheme rather than to any decline in Hurts, and Patullo lost his job over it. Washington went from the NFC Championship Game to 5-12 and dead last in the NFL in yards allowed, and now Laremy Tunsil is out with a torn triceps. Jer’Zhan Newton tore a pectoral and isn’t expected back until November, which thins an already bad front. Dan Quinn replaced both coordinators — David Blough on offense, Daronte Jones on defense — and there’s a heavy Maryland flavor to the additions, with former Terps Stefon Diggs and Chigoziem Okonkwo both likely to help immediately and Nick Cross joining the secondary. Former Raven Odafe Oweh gets a chance to build on what he did in Los Angeles. Jayden Daniels grades a 7 and is an MVP-caliber player when upright. Behind a line missing Tunsil, against Fangio, on the road, is not the opener you’d draw up for him. Philadelphia is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 45.5, and given a 65.5% chance of winning.

Key to the Game: Whether Washington can protect Jayden Daniels without Laremy Tunsil. Daniels is an MVP-caliber player when upright, and he is walking into Fangio’s defense with Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis inside and his left tackle on injured reserve. Everything else about Washington’s season is downstream of him staying on the field.

Green Bay at Minnesota – Green Bay was 9-3-1 on December 7 and top-five in several defensive categories. Then Micah Parsons tore his ACL, they lost four straight, and they blew a 21-3 lead to Chicago in the wild card. Parsons was moved to the reserve/PUP list Sunday and will miss the first four games, so this is the version without him. Josh Jacobs was placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List the same day and is also out, which leaves MarShawn Lloyd — the former DeMatha standout who had six carries in 2024 and missed 2025 entirely — carrying the backfield. Sharp has the Packers fourth on the strength of Jordan Love ranking sixth in EPA per dropback over three seasons. We can’t get there with this much rehab on the roster. Love has enormous ability and it falls to him to elevate a receiver group in Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden that all has talent and all has questions; a healthy Tucker Kraft is a top-tier tight end and probably the swing piece, and he’s expected to be full go here. Minnesota is the strangest situation in football. Kyler Murray won the job outright and J.J. McCarthy’s camp was described by one veteran beat writer as the football yips, which is why Clay grades the quarterback room a 4. Murray has started multiple seasons hot enough to draw MVP chatter by Week 6 and has never sustained it, with the usual explanation being that he wears down over a full year. The skill talent around him here is better than anything he’s had, starting with Justin Jefferson. And Brian Flores is the best coordinator alive at extracting production from a unit without stars — his defense finished third in the NFL in passing EPA allowed while the offense finished 29th. Jonathan Greenard’s departure for Philadelphia will be felt. Minnesota is a 1.5 point home favorite with a total of 45.5, but Green Bay is given a 57.4% chance of winning. The market and the model disagree here, which is usually a sign the number is being set on Kyler Murray rather than on the rosters.

Match-Up to Watch: Kyler Murray against a Green Bay secondary that has to cover without Micah Parsons. Jonathan Gannon’s corners were the acknowledged weak spot last season and were being propped up by pressure. Parsons isn’t back until Week 6. Murray is at his best early in seasons and against defenses that let him extend plays.

Arizona at LA Chargers – Mike McDaniel’s first game calling plays since leaving Miami, and the reason we have the Chargers eighth while NFL.com has them 17th. Los Angeles won 11 games without Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater for most of the season. Both are back, though Slater has been limited and carries a questionable tag. Justin Herbert took 54 sacks behind the league’s highest pressure rate last year, playing through a broken hand that needed midseason surgery, in front of a line that shuffled through nearly three dozen starting combinations — and still set a career high in scramble rate and averaged nine yards per dropback outside of structure. He checked in sixth in Sando’s tiers. The skill group is the deepest of his career: Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, Oronde Gadsden II, David Njoku, Charlie Kolar, with Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell behind Hampton. The interior line was already the worry and it got worse when Tyler Biadasz tore his ACL and was lost for the year, then worse again when guard Branson Taylor went to injured reserve on Sunday. Losing Jesse Minter to Baltimore should matter, and as Ravens fans we’d like to think it will, but Harbaugh always finds a path and always builds physical teams. Arizona draws the hardest schedule in the league by both models with a quarterback room Clay grades a 3 — Jacoby Brissett starting, Gardner Minshew behind him, third-rounder Carson Beck lurking. There are weapons: Trey McBride grades a 9, No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love an 8 though he’s questionable with an ankle and is now the entire backfield after James Conner and Trey Benson both landed on injured reserve, plus Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Paris Johnson Jr. and Isaac Seumalo. Mike LaFleur’s first job is getting Harrison back on track after two years of offensive dysfunction. No excuse for the Chargers to lose this one at home. The Chargers are 10.5 point favorites with a total of 46.5, and given an 81.1% chance of winning — the biggest number of the week by a wide margin.

Match-Up to Watch: The Chargers’ interior line against Walter Nolen and Josh Sweat. Los Angeles is elite at tackle with Alt and Slater back and completely unproven inside, and it got worse when Tyler Biadasz tore his ACL. Arizona’s front is the one part of that roster with real juice. A 10.5-point favorite has one plausible way to lose this.

Miami at Las Vegas – The two lowest-graded rosters in Clay’s guide, and it isn’t especially close. Miami projects for 2.4 wins with the 32nd-ranked offense, the 32nd-ranked defense and roughly $180 million in dead cap after cutting Tyreek Hill and moving Tua Tagovailoa, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jaylen Waddle and Bradley Chubb. Malik Willis gets his first Week 1 start with no receiver on the roster grading above a 3. Worth remembering: this was a 7-10 team a year ago. The collapse is one offseason old, not chronic, and De’Von Achane, Zach Sieler and Jordyn Brooks are real players. Las Vegas is the more interesting situation. Klint Kubiak asked for a veteran quarterback so he wouldn’t have to throw the No. 1 overall pick into the fire, and got Kirk Cousins. Mendoza looked sharp in August, which means the question isn’t whether he plays this year but when. Tyler Linderbaum arrives from Baltimore to fix the center spot, Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker rebuild the linebacker room, and Maxx Crosby (projected for 10.9 sacks) and Brock Bowers both grade a 9, with Ashton Jeanty in Year 2 and an ankle the staff says it’s counting on him to play through. Same core problem as Miami, though: no receiver above a 5. Las Vegas is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 59% chance of winning. That is a surprisingly small number against a team projected for 2.4 wins, and it says as much about the Raiders as it does about Miami.

Match-Up to Watch: Maxx Crosby against Miami’s tackles. Crosby grades a 9 and projects for 10.9 sacks, and Malik Willis is making his first Week 1 start with no receiver on the roster grading above a 3. If Miami can’t run with Achane, this becomes a very long afternoon in the desert.

Dallas at New York Giants – John Harbaugh’s first game in something other than purple, and the schedule handed him a division game in prime time. New York’s front seven is the reason to watch: Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux is Clay’s second-best edge room, with rookie Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds behind them under new coordinator Dennard Wilson. Carter had 72 pressures as a rookie, including a league-best 48 in under 2.5 seconds, and only four sacks. The finishing is coming. The problem is that Paulson Adebo, Dru Phillips and Greg Newsome II are all questionable and Malik Nabers is questionable with a knee, which is a bad combination against this offense. Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard followed Harbaugh from Baltimore and should both be productive, and Odell Beckham Jr. is back in a Giants uniform. Jaxson Dart debuted atop Sando’s Tier 3, has obvious talent, and has a playing style that doesn’t inspire much confidence about his availability. Dallas had the league’s second-best offense last season — two 1,000-yard receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the NFL’s third-rated passer in Dak Prescott, a quietly productive year from Javonte Williams — and finished 7-9-1 because they couldn’t stop anybody, ranking 31st in passing defense and 30th in rushing defense by EPA. So they threw everything at that side of the ball: Rashan Gary, Von Miller, Dee Winters, Otito Ogbonnia, Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant, first-round picks on Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence, Christian Parker hired from Philadelphia, and Broderick Jones from Pittsburgh up front. If that defense can be merely average, Dallas is a playoff team. They’re our first team out of the NFC field at 9-8. Dallas is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 48.5, and given a 55.1% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens against a Giants corner room carrying three questionable starters. Dallas had the league’s second-best offense last season and Prescott was the NFL’s third-rated passer. John Harbaugh’s debut is going to be decided by whether that front seven can get home before the coverage breaks.

Monday September 14th

Denver at Kansas City – Best possible way to end the weekend. Kansas City enters ninth in FPI, its worst preseason ranking since 2018, coming off a six-win season in which it went 1-9 in one-score games and lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in December. He was cleared to practice fully when camp opened. The real question isn’t whether he plays, it’s what he looks like scrambling on a repaired knee and whether he starts getting the ball out quicker. Kenneth Walker III gives Andy Reid and a returning Eric Bieniemy the downhill run game and play-action threat they haven’t had in three years, though he’s questionable with ankle swelling the club expects him to play through. Mahomes, for his part, is reported to be on track to start. Two first-round picks and a second went into the defense, and Spagnuolo’s units almost always look better in December than September; the rebuilt secondary leaning on rookie Mansoor Delane is the actual worry. Denver returns 20 of 22 starters from an AFC Championship Game roster, sent first-, third- and fourth-round picks to Miami for Jaylen Waddle, has the best offensive line in football, and led the NFL with 68 sacks, eleven clear of the field and four short of the 1984 Bears’ record. That last number needs an asterisk this week: Jonathon Cooper was placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List on Sunday, so one of the pieces that produced it isn’t available. We have them regressing from 14 wins to 10, but let’s be precise about why: that’s an 11-2 record in one-score games and a record 12 comeback wins evening out, not a verdict on the roster. Bo Nix finished fourth in the NFL in red-zone QBR and led the league outright in winning drives with seven. He also finished 26th in completion percentage over expectation and attempted only 40 passes between the hashmarks all season against 234 outside the numbers. Davis Webb spent the offseason working on getting him off his first read faster; opposing coordinators spent it making him look at the middle of the field. Five of Denver’s first six opponents made the 2025 playoffs, and it starts here. We have all three AFC West contenders at 10-7. This is the head-to-head that will look enormous in January. Kansas City is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 43, and given a 59.4% chance of winning. A 43 total for a Broncos-Chiefs opener is its own commentary on where these two offenses are.

Match-Up to Watch: Denver’s pass rush against Patrick Mahomes’ knee. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks, eleven clear of the field, with Nik Bonitto coming off a 14-sack season — and they’ll do it without Jonathon Cooper, who landed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List on Sunday. Mahomes was cleared to practice fully at the start of camp but has not taken a live hit since tearing his ACL in December. How he responds the first time Bonitto gets there is the most important thing that happens in Week 1.

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Below: full power rankings against the market and the models, over/under calls on all 32, a ranking of the eight divisions, the trench units that decide January, the ten best coaching staffs, division-by-division projections with a defining question for each team, and the five storylines that will shape the year.

Three outside inputs get referenced throughout. Clay is Mike Clay’s ESPN projection guide (updated August 12th), which produces a projected win total and 1-to-10 unit grades at ten positions for all 32 teams. Sharp is Warren Sharp’s work — both his strength-of-schedule model, where 1 is the easiest slate and 32 the hardest, and Raymond Summerlin’s Sharp Football power rankings. Line is the DraftKings win total. Where 2025 EPA rankings appear, they’re from The Ringer’s team pages; note that both Diante Lee’s power rankings and Steven Ruiz’s quarterback rankings there are February snapshots taken before free agency and the draft, so we’ve used the underlying data and film analysis rather than the orderings or the team labels.

Power Rankings Entering 2026

On the Chargers. NFL.com has them 17th and Clay projects 9.5 wins against what he rates the fourth-hardest schedule. But Sharp Football has them fifth, and we have them eighth — so this isn’t as lonely a position as it looked a week ago. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater both missed most of a season in which Los Angeles still won 11 games, and both are back. Mike McDaniel replaced Greg Roman as play-caller. Camp reports describe motion, constant personnel churn, and Justin Herbert diagnosing coverage pre-snap — from a team that ranked 24th in red-zone passer rating a year ago.

On the Packers. Sharp has Green Bay fourth, calling it an out-on-a-limb pick built on Jordan Love ranking sixth in EPA per dropback over three seasons. We can’t get there with Micah Parsons, Devonte Wyatt, Tucker Kraft and Zach Bako-Bewele all rehabbing and Josh Jacobs’ legal status unresolved.

Ranking the Eight Divisions

We have the NFC West first on top-end quality — the Rams, the champs, and a perennial January team — while NFL.com takes the NFC North for depth, and that’s a fair argument in a division where the 2025 champion (Chicago) finished ahead of a Lions team that tied for last at 9-8.

Our one real departure is at the bottom. NFL.com has the NFC South eighth, and the case is obvious: the 2025 division was decided by a three-way tiebreaker among 8-9 teams. But we’d rather have four teams that could all finish 8-9 than a division housing two of the league’s five worst rosters. Buffalo and New England are both very good. The Jets and Dolphins are projected for 9.7 combined wins by Clay’s model, and we have them at nine.

The Quarterback Tiers

Two industry surveys landed this summer, and they disagree in useful ways. Mike Sando’s annual tiers at The Athletic polled 50 coaches and executives on 35 veteran quarterbacks; ESPN separately surveyed more than 70 execs, coaches and scouts for a straight top 10.

Sando’s Tier 1 is four deep: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow. ESPN’s poll has Allen first and Mahomes second, with Stafford third — the two surveys agree almost entirely on who the elite are, and both moved Stafford up on the strength of his MVP season.

Tier 2 ballooned to 13, the largest in the survey’s history, and the ordering is where the interesting arguments live: Lamar Jackson (5), Justin Herbert (6), Dak Prescott (7), Drake Maye (8A), Jared Goff (8B), Jordan Love (10), Brock Purdy (11A), Caleb Williams (11B), Jayden Daniels (13), Baker Mayfield (14A), Sam Darnold (14B), Trevor Lawrence (16), Jalen Hurts (17). The lettered pairs are ties in Sando’s voting — Maye and Goff are jointly eighth and ninth, which is why the next name is 10th.

One caveat before anyone uses these as rankings: this is a perception survey, not a measurement. It tells you what evaluators believe, which is genuinely useful — those are the people who set trade markets and build game plans — but a coach’s ballot is not a metric.

With that said, three placements are worth flagging. Herbert at 6 is the highest any survey has put him. Hurts at 17, last in Tier 2 behind Darnold and Mayfield, tells you league evaluators remain dramatically less convinced by him than his team’s accomplishments would suggest — a gap that has persisted through a Super Bowl. And Nix at 18 says the league credits Denver’s 14 wins mostly to the roster around him — a reading the numbers both support and complicate, which we get into in the Broncos section. Our counter on Hurts is in the Eagles section below; the survey is worth reporting, not worth adopting.

Below the veterans: Jaxson Dart debuts at the top of Tier 3, Tua Tagovailoa fell to 26, Deshaun Watson sits 31st with brutal commentary attached, Michael Penix Jr. is 32nd, and J.J. McCarthy is 34th, with one voter offering that football looks hard for him.

Win Totals: Our Over/Under Call on All 32

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

Fifteen overs, seventeen unders, summing to 272 wins — so the standings that follow are internally consistent.

Five Teams Projected to Regress

1. Denver Broncos (14 wins → 10). Denver went 11-2 in one-score games last season and posted an NFL-record 12 comeback wins. That is not a repeatable baseline — but it’s also not luck alone, and the article’s earlier framing overstated it. Nix finished fourth in the NFL in red-zone QBR (82.6) and led the league outright in winning drives with seven. Payton’s teams are built to not take sacks, and Nix was sacked the ninth-fewest times among starters despite leading the league in both attempts (612) and dropbacks (667). Give them credit for the skill and still expect the record to come down. The Broncos remain excellent — a Bo Nix ankle fracture in the divisional round probably cost them a Super Bowl trip — but the close-game ledger evens out, and five of their first six opponents made the 2025 playoffs.

2. New England Patriots (14 → 10). New England rode one of the league’s softest schedules to Super Bowl LX and lost a long list of contributors: Stefon Diggs, Garrett Bradbury, K’Lavon Chaisson, Jahlani Tavai, Anfernee Jennings. Drake Maye is a legitimate top-five quarterback and A.J. Brown is a real addition — Clay still grades this the No. 4 roster in football. Ten wins and a wild-card berth is a good season here, and we’re less certain than most that Maye is ready to be the reason a team wins rather than a quarterback you can win with.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (13 → 9). The Jaguars didn’t lose from Week 11 through Week 18, and there’s a turnover-luck component to that nobody should ignore. They lost Travis Etienne and All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd, had no cap space and no draft capital after the Travis Hunter trade, and spent their only premium pick on a rotational blocking tight end. Trevor Lawrence’s surge was real; the roster around him is worse.

4. Chicago Bears (11 → 8). The reigning NFC North champions forced a league-leading 33 turnovers, which masked a defense that was ordinary down to down. Then came the third-hardest schedule by Sharp’s model, Drew Dalman’s surprise retirement, the DJ Moore trade to Buffalo, a groin injury costing Luther Burden III the preseason, and injuries to offseason signing Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon in the secondary. We still believe in Ben Johnson. We don’t believe in this number.

5. Seattle Seahawks (14 → 11). Regression, not decline. Klint Kubiak left for Las Vegas, Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City, Zach Charbonnet is working back from a torn ACL, and Nick Emmanwori opened camp on PUP. ESPN’s FPI cut Seattle’s defensive rating from 4.6 points per game to 2.1 on the general principle that elite defenses don’t stay elite. Note that John Schneider spent a first-round pick on Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price to address the backfield. Eleven wins and a deep January is still the likeliest outcome.

Five Teams That Look Improved

1. Baltimore Ravens (8 → 11). No returning player changes his team’s baseline more than a healthy Lamar Jackson. Trey Hendrickson is the most impactful edge addition any contender made, and Nnamdi Madubuike is back after neck surgery cost him nearly all of 2025. The schedule is fifth-easiest. Clay grades this the second-best roster in football.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (6 → 10). Kansas City went 1-9 in one-score games and lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in December. He was cleared to practice fully at the start of camp. Kenneth Walker III gives Andy Reid and returning coordinator Eric Bieniemy the early-down run game they haven’t had in three years. The rebuilt secondary leaning on rookie Mansoor Delane is the real worry.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (6 → 10). Joe Burrow has compared this roster to his 2019 LSU team, which is a lot, but Cincinnati finally invested on defense: the No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence, plus Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger. Clay projects 10.7 wins and the No. 3 offense with the second-easiest schedule, and we’ve landed essentially on the number. The defense doesn’t have to be good — it has to be average, which it has not been since 2022.

4. Los Angeles Chargers (11 → 11, but far better). Alt and Slater are healthy, McDaniel is calling plays, and the skill group — Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, Oronde Gadsden II, David Njoku, Charlie Kolar, with Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell behind Hampton — is the deepest of the Herbert era.

5. Tennessee Titans (3 → 6). Six wins isn’t a playoff team, but Robert Saleh with Gus Bradley on defense and Brian Daboll on offense is the most credible staff Tennessee has assembled in a decade. The front office added as many as six new defensive starters, and Carnell Tate at No. 4 overall finally gives Cam Ward a downfield weapon alongside Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley.

Top 8 Projected Offensive Lines

Our eight and Clay’s eight are the same eight teams, which is unusual and probably meaningful. Denver stands alone at the top with an 8 grade; the other seven all grade out at 7.

1. Denver Broncos — PFF’s No. 1 unit for a second straight year, with All-Pro guard Quinn Meinerz inside and Garett Bolles still holding up at left tackle. The foundation of everything Sean Payton does.
2. Philadelphia Eagles — All five starters return, including Lane Johnson, who has graded above 80.0 as a pass blocker for six consecutive seasons, and Jordan Mailata. Losing longtime line coach Jeff Stoutland to retirement is the wild card.
3. Los Angeles Rams — Arguably the best-performing line in football last year: second in pressure rate allowed, first in adjusted line yards, second-lowest stuff rate. Alaric Jackson’s availability is the question.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Tristan Wirfs earned a career-high 92.7 grade in 2025, and Luke Goedeke allowed neither a sack nor a hit across 416 pass-blocking snaps.
5. Buffalo Bills — Fourth in pressure rate, second in time to pressure, second in adjusted line yards, three years of continuity. Losing David Edwards costs them a spot.
6. San Francisco 49ers — Trent Williams turns 38 and posted his sixth straight 85-plus grade. San Francisco allowed the third-lowest pressure rate in football and added real depth behind the starters.
7. Los Angeles Chargers — Elite at tackle with Alt and Slater healthy, unproven on the interior with Cole Strange and rookie Jake Slaughter. The distance between those two facts is the Chargers’ season.
8. Chicago Bears — Joe Thuney grades a 9, Darnell Wright an 8. Dalman’s retirement drops them from top-three to here.

Just missed: Detroit, which added Cade Mays specifically to fix its interior and will now be without him for 8-10 weeks with a wrist injury, and Indianapolis, where Quenton Nelson and Bernhard Raimann anchor a group some outlets have inside their top five.

Top 8 Projected Defensive Lines

Clay grades interior and edge separately. Baltimore, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia lead the interior at 7; Pittsburgh and the Giants lead the edge at 8, with Houston and the Rams at 7. Combining both:

1. Los Angeles Rams — Myles Garrett won his second Defensive Player of the Year award and set the single-season sack record with 23 last year in Cleveland. He joins Kobie Turner, Poona Ford and Braden Fiske, with Byron Young opposite. Clay projects Garrett for 12.6 sacks. Aaron Donald has already worked out for the team.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers — The best pure pass-rush collection in football: T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, plus Cameron Heyward (a 9 grade at 37) and Derrick Harmon. Older than the rest of this tier and it hasn’t stopped mattering yet.
3. Philadelphia Eagles — A healthy Jalen Carter with Jordan Davis and Moro Ojomo may be the best interior trio in football, with Jalyx Hunt behind Jonathan Greenard. Greenard’s pec strain is the near-term concern.
4. Baltimore Ravens — Clay’s top-graded interior in the NFL: Madubuike and Travis Jones both grade 8, Calais Campbell a 7 in his 19th season. Hendrickson grades 8 on the edge. The questions are Madubuike’s health after neck surgery and whether Mike Green, coming off 3.5 rookie sacks, becomes the second rusher.
5. Seattle Seahawks — Leonard Williams grades a 9, Byron Murphy II a 7, Jarran Reed a 7. DeMarcus Lawrence still sets an edge. Losing Boye Mafe stings.
6. Houston Texans — Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. both grade 8, with Jadeveon Clowney at 6 as the third rusher. The backbone of Clay’s No. 2 defense.
7. New York Giants — Brian Burns (8), Abdul Carter (7) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (6) is the second-best edge room in football. The interior, after the Dexter Lawrence trade, is not.
8. Cincinnati Bengals — Lawrence grades a 9, B.J. Hill a 7, Jonathan Allen a 5, with Mafe added outside. The most aggressive front-line rebuild any team attempted.

Top 10 Coaching Staffs (Not Just Head Coaches)

CBS Sports polled twelve of its writers on the league’s best offensive and defensive play-callers, and the results reshaped this list. Only four teams placed a coordinator in the top ten on both sides: the Rams, Chiefs, Jaguars and Vikings. We’ve weighted that heavily, because a staff is a pair of units, not just a Head Coach.

1. Los Angeles Rams — McVay was the near-unanimous top offensive play-caller (105 points, never ranked lower than third) and Chris Shula finished seventh on defense, appearing on all but one ballot. The Rams ran 13 personnel on 30.5% of snaps last season, more than double the second-place Steelers.
2. Kansas City Chiefs — The best combined pair in football on the voting: Reid fourth on offense, Spagnuolo second on defense. Even in a six-win season Spagnuolo’s unit finished 10th in total defense and sixth in scoring. Bieniemy’s return replaces Matt Nagy, whose second Kansas City stint coincided with the offensive decline.
3. Seattle Seahawks — Macdonald was the unanimous No. 1 defensive play-caller, the only coach in either poll to appear first on every ballot. The lone reason Seattle isn’t higher is that Brian Fleury drew no votes and has never called plays.
4. Los Angeles Chargers — McDaniel was the only non-head-coach to make the offensive top ten, at fifth. Harbaugh’s .679 career win percentage does the rest; Chris O’Leary inherits the defense Minter built.
5. Philadelphia Eagles — Fangio placed fourth on defense, and his units have finished first and fifth in the relevant categories in his two Philadelphia seasons. Sean Mannion is the unknown.
6. San Francisco 49ers — Shanahan finished second on offense, and nobody has scheme-created more open receivers over the last decade. Raheem Morris drew votes on defense.
7. Denver Broncos — Vance Joseph placed eighth on defense after a unit that led the NFL with 68 sacks, eleven more than any other team and four short of the 1984 Bears’ record. Payton handing play-calling to Davis Webb is either smart delegation or the year’s biggest unforced error.
8. Houston Texans — Matt Burke took over play-calling early last season and Houston finished first in total defense and second in scoring. He placed tenth. Nick Caley’s offense is the open question.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars — One of the four staffs with both coordinators ranked: Coen seventh on offense, Campanile ninth on defense after a debut year with the Jaguars eighth in scoring defense and second in takeaways.
10. Chicago Bears — Ben Johnson finished third on offense and got a first-place vote. Chicago graded fifth in both PFF pass blocking and run blocking last year, which is the tell on his line schemes. Dennis Allen’s defense is the swing.

Just missed: Minnesota, the fourth team with both coordinators ranked (O’Connell eighth, Flores fifth after a defense that led the league in pressure rate); Green Bay, where LaFleur placed ninth on offense; and Detroit, where neither Drew Petzing nor Kelvin Sheppard drew a vote.

And a note on Baltimore, since this is a Ravens site and the temptation is obvious: we left them off. Jesse Minter has never been a head coach, Declan Doyle is 30 and has never called an NFL offense, and the two of them have never coached a game together. The pieces are genuinely intriguing, and one of them is better than intriguing: Minter finished third among all defensive play-callers in the CBS poll, behind only Macdonald and Spagnuolo and ahead of Fangio and Flores, on the strength of disciplined units and excellent secondary play under Jim Harbaugh. That is a real endorsement. But Doyle received no votes and has never called an NFL offense, and half a staff isn’t a staff. This group could be top-five by December. It hasn’t earned the ranking yet. 

Projected Finishes by Division

AFC East

1. Bills 12-5 | 2. Patriots 10-7 | 3. Jets 5-12 | 4. Dolphins 4-13

Buffalo. Joe Brady inherits a perennial contender, Clay’s No. 2 offense, a top-five offensive line, and a new stadium. The pass-catching group is genuinely good now — DJ Moore arriving from Chicago alongside Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox at tight end — and James Cook, the reigning rushing champion, plus Ray Davis is a strong backfield. Buffalo finished first in the NFL in rushing offense by EPA last season and 31st in rushing defense — the widest split of any contender, and the reason the McDermott firing followed a four-turnover divisional-round loss in Denver. Strength: Allen, both lines, and a division that is functionally a head start. Weakness: edge depth behind Gregory Rousseau and Bradley Chubb is thin, and Clay grades the linebacker corps a 3, the lowest mark of any contender at any position. The question: how does this defense adjust to Jim Leonhard’s scheme? Nineteen different defensive play-callers drew a vote in CBS’s poll — the widest spread of any category they surveyed — and Leonhard finished with exactly one point, from a single tenth-place ballot. Buffalo is our AFC favorite, and the case against them rests almost entirely on that answer.

New England. The A.J. Brown trade genuinely upgraded a skill group that was underwhelming a year ago, and Rhamondre Stevenson with TreVeyon Henderson is a complementary backfield worth watching. Alijah Vera-Tucker, first-round tackle Caleb Lomu and Jared Wilson moving back to his natural spot at center should make life easier up front. Strength: a secondary where Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Craig Woodson and Kevin Byard all grade 8. Weakness: heavy defensive attrition and an offseason dominated by Mike Vrabel’s off-field problems. The question: Maye finished second in MVP voting — is that who he is, or did everything around him go right at once? He’s clearly good enough to win with; we’re not yet convinced he’s the reason a team wins, which is why we’re below the market here. In fairness to the other side: Maye led the entire NFL in both EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expectation last season, and his +10.8 CPOE wasn’t close to anyone else’s. The case against him is the postseason, where New England’s offense was overmatched by a run of elite defenses.

New York Jets. The most interesting bad team in football. New York did not record a single interception in 2025 — an almost impossible statistic — and finished 32nd in passing defense by EPA per dropback, and responded by rebuilding most of the defensive starting lineup, with Aaron Glenn taking over play-calling himself. Clay now grades the Jets’ linebackers eighth-best in the league and their defense 10th, with Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety and T’Vondre Sweat, Harrison Phillips and David Onyemata inside. Strength: the front seven, plus a draft class of David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr. and D’Angelo Ponds. Weakness: Smith threw a league-high 17 interceptions last season and finished 34th in EPA per dropback; Clay projects 14 more picks. The question: can this defense drag a 7-win roster into relevance?

Miami. This was a 7-10 team a year ago. Then Tyreek Hill was cut, Tua Tagovailoa and Minkah Fitzpatrick were moved out, and Jaylen Waddle and Bradley Chubb were traded. Clay now projects 2.4 wins — the lowest number in the guide — with the 32nd-ranked offense, 32nd-ranked defense, and roughly $180 million in dead cap. Strength: De’Von Achane, Zach Sieler and Jordyn Brooks are legitimate players. Weakness: a receiving corps with no threat above a 3 grade, and the second-hardest schedule. The question: how does Miami even evaluate Malik Willis with these weapons?

AFC North

1. Ravens 11-6 | 2. Bengals 10-7 | 3. Steelers 8-9 | 4. Browns 5-12

For the first time since 2021, the AFC North champion won with just 10 wins, and it took a Week 18 classic in Pittsburgh to settle it. Three of the four teams have new Head Coaches. The division needs to be better than it was.

Baltimore. Eighteen years of John Harbaugh ended in January, and Jesse Minter walks into as much pressure as any first-year coach in the league. He inherits a two-time MVP, Clay’s second-best roster, the fifth-easiest schedule, and a mandate that isn’t “make the playoffs” but “win in them.”

The strengths are enormous and specific, and last year’s EPA splits describe the team precisely: Baltimore finished first in rushing offense and third in rushing defense, and 21st in passing offense and 18th in passing defense. Clay’s model projects them to lead the NFL in both rushing attempts and rushing yards while ranking dead last in pass attempts — a run-first bully team by design, with Derrick Henry projected for 1,482 yards and 13 touchdowns at 32. Kyle Hamilton grades a 9, and the safety group is the best-graded unit at any position on any roster in the league. Madubuike, Travis Jones and Campbell give Minter the interior he needs, and Hendrickson gives him the edge rusher the last two Ravens teams lacked. Clay has the defense fourth overall and second in sacks.

The soft spots are equally specific: receiver and tight end both grade 5. Zay Flowers just got $35 million a year and needs to prove he’s a true No. 1 rather than an excellent No. 2, and behind him it’s a rehabilitating Rashod Bateman, a 31-year-old Mark Andrews coming off a quiet year, and a draft class asked to contribute immediately — Ja’Kobi Lane in the third round, Elijah Sarratt in the fourth, Matthew Hibner in the fourth, Josh Cuevas in the fifth. Here is the cleanest way to state the problem: exactly three players on this roster have ever caught more than ten passes from Lamar Jackson. Flowers, Bateman and Andrews. That’s it. The interior offensive line is a projection: Ethan Pocic replacing Tyler Linderbaum while returning from a torn Achilles, John Simpson at left guard, rookie Vega Ioane at right guard. Marlon Humphrey has to bounce back at 30. And Madubuike’s neck surgery means nobody really knows what this defense is until October. The question: how much of the last two seasons was actually coaching?

The Lamar question nobody in Baltimore wants to ask. Start with the disagreement: The Ringer’s Diante Lee ranked Jackson the third-best quarterback in football this offseason, ahead of Herbert, Maye, Prescott and Burrow. That is the high end of his range, and it’s a real evaluation. But three other measures docked him this summer, and they all point at the same thing. Before doing that, note what actually happened: Jackson opened 2025 completing better than 70 percent of his throws at 9.1 yards per attempt with a 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, then hurt his hamstring. After he returned he was visibly slower, scrambled less, held the ball longer and stopped pushing it downfield. Steven Ruiz’s read at The Ringer was that Jackson’s decision-making itself appeared to be a function of his health. He slid 67 spots to No. 69 on the players’ Top 100. He dropped out of Sando’s Tier 1 back to the top of Tier 2 after making his Tier 1 debut a year ago. And the stated reason wasn’t the missed games — it was that his rushing yards per game fell by roughly half year over year. One opposing coach told Sando “I’m not sure how much he wants to run and take hits anymore,” adding that Jackson can’t be special without the threat of the run.

Jackson has spent three years becoming a better pocket passer specifically so he doesn’t have to absorb that punishment, and at 29, protecting his body is rational — he’s now been limited to 13 games or fewer in three of five seasons. But Clay’s model projects him for 671 rushing yards on 122 carries, which would be a meaningful bounce-back, and it projects Baltimore to lead the NFL in rushing attempts and rushing yards. Declan Doyle’s first real job is finding ways to make Jackson a run threat without making him a target.

And here’s the case nobody is making loudly enough. The knock on Baltimore is a rookie head coach and a 30-year-old first-time play-caller. But Jackson has won MVP in the first season of each of his last two new offensive coordinators — unanimously under Greg Roman in 2019, the second unanimous winner in league history, and again under Todd Monken in 2023. Twenty-two teams have a new offensive coordinator this year. There is no quarterback in football with a better track record of absorbing one.

The schematic details are more interesting than the personnel questions. Doyle has Jackson taking more snaps under center than in any previous camp, and Jackson expects that to carry into the season. He has been under center for five percent of his career snaps; since 2018 his 226 under-center snaps are the second fewest of any quarterback with 50 starts, behind Kyler Murray. And over those same eight seasons, Jackson has posted the highest QBR in the NFL from under center — 81.2, with 20 touchdowns and one interception. It’s the least-used and most productive part of his game. Doyle is also drilling cadence, which is a strange thing to have to fix and an obvious place to find yards: since 2019 Baltimore has drawn defenses offside 33 times, fewer than every team but New Orleans and New England, and Jackson has exactly one career completion on a free play. The transition isn’t seamless — the offense false-started eight times in a single August practice varying its cadences, and Jackson spiked his helmet after a two-minute drill ran out of clock — but the direction is clear, and Jackson attended the voluntary spring work to get a head start on it.

Cincinnati. Burrow missed nine games and the defense still couldn’t get out of its own way. The Dexter Lawrence trade is the swing this franchise needed, with second-rounder Cashius Howell arriving to push Myles Murphy for snaps opposite Boye Mafe. Strength: Clay’s No. 3 offense — Burrow, one of only four quarterbacks voted into Sando’s Tier 1, plus Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — and the second-easiest schedule. Weakness: a linebacker room grading 4, a defense Clay still ranks 25th, and an offensive line with real questions inside. The question: how good is Amarius Mims in Year 3? If he’s a legitimate starting tackle, the bookends are set and the interior becomes solvable. Worth noting on that front: Cincinnati’s line actually allowed the third-lowest pressure rate in football last season, and Burrow’s own reluctance to give up on plays is part of why the sack and hit totals stay high. He also posted the league’s lowest off-target throw rate. And while everyone spends August discussing Lamar Jackson’s missed time, Burrow has missed a comparable amount over the same stretch — that’s the quieter version of the same problem.

Pittsburgh. The defending division champions. Mike Tomlin never had a losing season in 20 years; Mike McCarthy inherits the streak. Rodgers returns for a 22nd season and turns 43 in December, and the arm is still there — but the ability to escape and extend is not. Expect defenses to crowd the line and dare him to get the ball out immediately, over and over. The tape already says they will: in 2025 Rodgers posted both the lowest average time to throw and the lowest average depth of target in the NFL, and he has essentially stopped working the middle of the field. He finished 23rd in EPA per dropback and 33rd in success rate. Around him is a real supporting cast: Michael Pittman Jr. and Rico Dowdle join DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth, with first-round tackle Max Iheanachor added up front. Strength: Clay’s No. 3 defense, headlined by the league’s best edge group and a secondary with Jalen Ramsey, Joey Porter Jr., Jamel Dean, Jaquan Brisker and Darnell Savage. Weakness: Clay ranks the offense 26th. The question: can Rodgers be a middle-of-the-pack starter? If so, this is a division threat, not a third-place team — and that’s the single biggest swing in the AFC North.

Cleveland. Todd Monken finally landed a top job — a hire that drove respected DC Jim Schwartz out of the building — and inherits a four-way quarterback competition between Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel and rookie Taylen Green. Strength: Cleveland finished first in the NFL in passing defense by EPA per dropback last season, and the 2025 draft class delivered Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger plus Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr., with Jared Verse arriving in the Garrett trade as a cost-controlled young edge who fits the timeline. Weakness: the offense finished 32nd in that same metric — dead last, and not close — which is what Clay’s 31st-ranked projection is built on, alongside a presumptive starter in Watson who ranked 31st of 35 in the tiers with some of the harshest commentary in the survey. The question: is this a competition or an audition for the 2027 draft?

AFC South

1. Texans 11-6 | 2. Jaguars 9-8 | 3. Colts 7-10 | 4. Titans 6-11

Houston. After an 0-3 start, Houston won 12 of 14 including a nine-game closing streak before losing to New England in the divisional round. The offseason went entirely into the offense: Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller signed, David Montgomery acquired from Detroit, Keylan Rutledge drafted. Woody Marks is usable but he isn’t Jahmyr Gibbs, which means Montgomery should see more touches here than he did in his last couple of years in Detroit. Strength: a defense that finished first in total defense and second in scoring after Ryans handed play-calling to Matt Burke early last season, with a corner group grading 8 — Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre. Weakness: Clay ranks the offense 22nd, and Stroud’s 2023 turnover avoidance looks more like an outlier every year. The question: from October on, Stroud ranked seventh in EPA per dropback behind a bad line and no run game, then had a disastrous playoff run. Analysts loved his rookie season; entering 2026 he has a long list of detractors. If he’s average, Houston probably wins the South. If he’s a top-third quarterback, Houston can win the AFC. Montgomery giving this offense a consistent play-action game is the likeliest bridge between those outcomes.

Jacksonville. The popular sleeper of the summer, on the strength of how they closed 2025 — unbeaten from Week 11 through Week 18 — and of a roster people keep describing in terms of collective team speed. GM James Gladstone was content to run it back. Strength: Coen’s scheme, a defense that ranked first in EPA per play from Week 11 on, and Joshua Hines-Allen grading a 9. Weakness: everyone says running backs are replaceable, and we still didn’t like losing Travis Etienne; Devin Lloyd is gone too, and there was no cap space or draft capital to replace either. The question: it comes down to how you evaluate Trevor Lawrence. From November on he ranked fourth in the NFL in total EPA and success rate and drew MVP votes, with the midseason Jakobi Meyers trade a real catalyst — though he still finished 27th in completion percentage over expectation on the full season. If you believe better coaching has turned the corner, be optimistic. Secondary questions: does Brian Thomas Jr. rebound, and what does Travon Walker actually give this defense?

Indianapolis. The Colts were the most explosive offense in football through two months, then Daniel Jones got hurt, the season collapsed, and they were reduced to unretiring Philip Rivers. Jones was legitimately good in the first half of last season, and the play-action game built off Jonathan Taylor — newly paid at two years, $44 million, and grading a 9 — is the foundation. Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs won’t frighten anyone, but it’s a usable group. Strength: an offensive line with Quenton Nelson and Bernhard Raimann, plus DeForest Buckner. Weakness: Clay grades the linebackers 3, and the receiving room thinned when Pittman went to Pittsburgh. The question: there’s a clear path to this defense being better than last year, and it starts with availability — several projected starters missed significant time, none more important than 2025 trade acquisition Sauce Gardner.

Tennessee. New coach, new coordinators, new uniforms harking back to the Oilers. Saleh builds dominant defenses; Daboll got one great year out of Josh Allen and one good year out of Daniel Jones. Strength: a front anchored by Jeffery Simmons, who grades a 9 and projects for a league-leading 9.3 sacks among interior linemen. Weakness: Clay’s 29th offense and 28th defense — the roster is still two drafts away. The question: Ward finished 33rd of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, success rate and yards per dropback — and improved in all three over the back half of the season while nearly halving his sack rate after Brian Callahan was fired. How much of that carries into Year 2 with a real No. 1 receiver and simplified reads?

AFC West

1. Chargers 10-7 | 2. Broncos 10-7 | 3. Chiefs 10-7 | 4. Raiders 6-11

Three teams projected at 10-7, and only two of them get in. It’s the tightest division in football and the one most likely to embarrass us.

Los Angeles. Eleven wins without both All-Pro tackles for most of the year. Now they’re back, and McDaniel is calling plays. Losing Minter to Baltimore should matter, and as Ravens fans we’d like to think it will — but Harbaugh has always found a path, and he always builds physical teams. First-round pick Akheem Mesidor was a good add to a front where Tuli Tuipulotu’s 13 sacks last season have gone strangely unnoticed; the open question is what Khalil Mack has left after 17 sacks in 2023 and 11.5 combined since. The Chargers ranked 23rd in passing offense by EPA per dropback last season, which is the whole explanation for the McDaniel hire — though the context matters. Herbert took 54 sacks behind the league’s highest pressure rate, playing through a broken hand that required midseason surgery, in front of a line that shuffled through nearly three dozen starting combinations. He responded by setting a career high in scramble rate and averaging nine yards per dropback outside of structure. Strength: Herbert, who checked in sixth in Sando’s tiers and fourth on The Ringer’s board, ran for 498 yards last year — also underdiscussed — and behind two returning All-Pro tackles has the deepest skill group of his era, with Derwin James anchoring the back end. Weakness: the interior offensive line, and two models that read the schedule very differently — Sharp has it middle-of-the-pack (20th-easiest), Clay the fourth-hardest in football. The question: does Tre Harris take a step? If he does, this receiver room is a problem for people. And for what it’s worth: contracts and age aside, if we were building a team to win one season, we’d take Herbert over Maye.

Denver. Denver has gone 25-11 with Nix starting, made the playoffs in both his seasons after missing eight straight, and returns 20 of 22 starters from an AFC Championship Game roster. Since drafting him 12th overall they’ve committed more than $300 million in guarantees to the players around him — Zach Allen, Quinn Meinerz, Nik Bonitto, Courtland Sutton, Pat Surtain II, Garett Bolles — and sent first-, third- and fourth-round picks to Miami for Jaylen Waddle. J.K. Dobbins had injury trouble again but was productive when available, and whether RJ Harvey’s 3.7 yards per carry climbs in Year 2 matters. Strength: the best offensive line in football, Bonitto coming off a 14-sack season, and a unit that led the NFL with 68 sacks — eleven clear of the field and four short of the 1984 Bears’ record.

The honest case on Nix runs both ways, and it’s more interesting than his tier placement. He’s the third quarterback in league history with 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, after Peyton Manning and Justin Herbert, and he leads all six first-round quarterbacks from the 2024 class in wins, passing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns and total touchdowns — ahead of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. He was also, in Ruiz’s reading, one of the NFL’s best fourth-quarter quarterbacks and mediocre outside of it, finishing 30th in success rate. He finished 26th in completion percentage over expectation at minus-2.1%, completed 44.1% of throws travelling 10-plus air yards and 36.1% of throws travelling 20-plus, and attempted only 40 passes between the hashmarks all season against 234 outside the numbers. Opposing coordinators have noticed, and they’ll keep making him look at the middle of the field. First-year coordinator Davis Webb spent the offseason working on getting him off his first read faster.

Weakness: the ankle. Nix has fractured one in high school, college and the NFL, and has had three surgeries in two Denver seasons including an April cleanup for bone spurs. The question: is Waddle the missing piece? There’s a contract underneath all of this — Nix carries a $5.076 million cap charge, the 19th-highest on his own team, and the top twelve quarterbacks now average north of $51 million a year. A big season makes that a nine-figure guarantee. A flat one probably means Denver picks up the fifth-year option and waits.

Kansas City. Six wins, 1-9 in one-score games, a torn ACL. Mahomes was cleared to practice fully when camp opened. This offense may never be explosive again, but it will remain productive as long as he’s available — and adding Kenneth Walker III gives them a downhill thumper and, with it, a real play-action game. Two first-round picks and a second went into the defense, which is the kind of investment that tends to show up gradually; Spagnuolo’s units almost always look better in December than September. Strength: Mahomes, Reid, Creed Humphrey (a 9), Chris Jones, and genuine speed at receiver. Weakness: a rebuilt secondary leaning on rookie Mansoor Delane, and Xavier Worthy nursing another shoulder issue. The question: even if he stays available, what does Mahomes look like scrambling on a repaired knee — and does he start getting the ball out quicker?

Las Vegas. Klint Kubiak asked for a veteran quarterback so he wouldn’t have to throw the No. 1 overall pick into the fire, and got Kirk Cousins. Tyler Linderbaum fixes the center spot; Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker rebuild the linebacker room. Strength: Maxx Crosby (a 9, projected for 10.9 sacks), Brock Bowers (a 9), Ashton Jeanty. Weakness: no receiver above a 5 grade. The question: how long can they justify keeping Mendoza on the bench?

NFC East

1. Eagles 10-7 | 2. Cowboys 9-8 | 3. Commanders 7-10 | 4. Giants 6-11

Philadelphia. Eleven wins, a division title, a wild-card exit against San Francisco, and negative vibes throughout. A.J. Brown is gone, Dontayvion Wicks and Riq Woolen arrive, Sean Mannion installs the Shanahan-McVay system after Kevin Patullo was fired, and Fangio still runs the defense. Dallas Goedert is coming off an 11-touchdown season, and we liked the Eli Stowers pick in the second round behind him. Strength: All-Pros in the secondary with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis up front — that’s the start of any good defense — plus Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun both grading 9. Weakness: an unsettled receiver room, and a safety group grading 3. The question: does Makai Lemon produce right away, and does Barkley bounce back from 4.1 yards per carry after 5.8 the year before? On Hurts: the scrutiny has gotten excessive. Finishing second in MVP voting in 2022 was hyperbole, and so is the criticism now. He’s been to two Super Bowls, won one, was its MVP, and has three Pro Bowls. You can fixate on the flaws or appreciate what he is. Ruiz’s film read lands in the same place: the efficiency decline in 2025 traced to a bad scheme rather than any regression in Hurts’s skill set, and Patullo lost his job over it. Our guess is he remains good enough.

Dallas. The Cowboys had the league’s second-best offense — two 1,000-yard receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the NFL’s third-rated passer in Dak Prescott, and a quietly very productive year from Javonte Williams — and finished 7-9-1 because they couldn’t stop anybody — 31st in passing defense and 30th in rushing defense by EPA. So they threw the kitchen sink at the defense: Rashan Gary, Dee Winters, Otito Ogbonnia, Jalen Thompson and Cobie Durant via free agency and trade, first-round picks on Caleb Downs and edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, and Christian Parker hired from Philadelphia to coordinate. The run defense in particular looks improved. Strength: Clay’s No. 6 offense — if Dallas can block, this unit puts up points. Weakness: they’ll still likely have to scheme pressure rather than generate it, and the schedule is fifth-hardest. The question: can this defense be merely average? If it is, Dallas is a playoff team.

Washington. In 2024 they reached the NFC Championship Game and everyone was in love with Jayden Daniels. In 2025 they slipped to 5-12 and nobody believes in them. Dan Quinn overhauled both coordinator spots — David Blough on offense, Daronte Jones on defense — and there’s a heavy Maryland flavor to the additions: former Terps Stefon Diggs and Chigoziem Okonkwo should both help immediately, and Nick Cross joins the secondary. Former Raven Odafe Oweh gets a chance to build on what he did in Los Angeles. We loved the Sonny Styles selection. Strength: Daniels grades a 7 and is an MVP-caliber player when upright. Weakness: Laremy Tunsil tore a triceps and is likely to miss a significant portion of the season, and Washington finished dead last in the NFL in yards allowed. The question: can Daniels stay on the field? If he does, he can probably drag this roster to .500.

New York. John Harbaugh’s second act should at minimum be more organized, and paired with a manageable schedule there’s a version of this that surprises people. Under new coordinator Dennard Wilson, the front seven pairs Brian Burns and Abdul Carter with Kayvon Thibodeaux, rookie Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds — Clay’s second-best edge group. Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard followed Harbaugh from Baltimore and should both be productive, and Odell Beckham Jr. is back in a Giants uniform. Strength: real defensive talent, plus Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart, who debuted atop Tier 3. Weakness: Dart has obvious talent and a playing style that doesn’t inspire confidence about his availability; Malik Nabers isn’t practicing fully; the interior line thinned after the Lawrence trade. The question: probably too many unknowns to project a leap — but if Dart, Nabers and Skattebo are mostly available, this becomes a team nobody enjoys facing in the second half of the season.

NFC North

1. Lions 11-6 | 2. Packers 10-7 | 3. Bears 8-9 | 4. Vikings 8-9

The best division in football by most accounts, and the one where all four teams have a credible argument.

Detroit. Nine-and-eight and tied for last in the division a year ago, and now the easiest schedule in football by both models — which is why Clay projects 12 wins and the NFL’s second-best record. The Lions added to both lines in the draft, and this offense remains formidable, especially at home on the turf. Goff keeps posting gaudy numbers; he’s another quarterback who isn’t elite and is unquestionably good enough to win with. Strength: Amon-Ra St. Brown (9), Aidan Hutchinson (9), Jack Campbell (9), Penei Sewell (8) moving to left tackle, Sam LaPorta (8). Weakness: Cade Mays out 8-10 weeks, Terrion Arnold gone, both starting safeties opening camp on PUP — Sharp dropped Detroit three spots on the secondary alone. The questions: Gibbs no longer has David Montgomery to share the load, so does Isiah Pacheco — who hasn’t looked right in two years — revert to anything like his 2023 form? And what do D.J. Wonnum and Derrick Moore actually give Detroit opposite Hutchinson?

Green Bay. The Packers were 9-3-1 on December 7 and top-five in several defensive categories. Then Micah Parsons tore his ACL, they lost four straight, and they blew a 21-3 lead to Chicago in the wild card. We like this team, starting with Jordan Love, who has enormous ability; a healthy Tucker Kraft is a top-tier tight end, and Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden all have talent and all have questions. It falls to Love to elevate that group. Strength: Parsons and Xavier McKinney both grade 9; Zach Tom grades 8. Weakness: Josh Jacobs’ unresolved legal situation sours the outlook, and the contingency is MarShawn Lloyd — the former DeMatha standout who had six carries in 2024 and missed 2025 entirely. The question: Parsons is eyeing a Week 6 return. How good is this defense without him, how long does the rust last, and does he get back to his prior peak in 2026?

Chicago. The defending division champion, and Year 3 for Caleb Williams is bringing a lot of hype. To his credit he made marked improvement from Year 1 to Year 2, and Ben Johnson fixed the sack problem in a single offseason. Feeding D’Andre Swift, who averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season, would only help him further. Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III are a solid duo, and Colston Loveland’s emergence as a rookie first-rounder is a big reason Cole Kmet fell from 73 catches in 2023 to 30 last year. It’s still a good group — just not as deep without DJ Moore, and third-rounder Zavion Thomas has to be integrated. Strength: an offensive line grading 7, with Joe Thuney at 9. Weakness: Chicago brought in multiple options at left tackle without an obvious answer, Burden misses the preseason with a groin injury, Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon are hurt, and Sharp ranks the schedule third-hardest. The questions: Williams completed 58.1 percent of his throws last season — nowhere near Ben Johnson’s stated preseason goal of 70 percent — and ranked 34th in completion percentage over expectation even while setting the franchise single-season passing record and winning Chicago’s first playoff game since 2011. That gap between the highlight throws and the routine ones is the step. Also: that secondary generated a mountain of turnovers in 2025 — is any of that sustainable? They had losses at safety and added first-rounder Dillon Thieneman to replace them. And can Williams take another step?

Minnesota. Kyler Murray won the job outright; J.J. McCarthy’s camp was described by one veteran beat writer as the football yips. Murray has started multiple seasons hot enough to draw MVP chatter by Week 6 and has never sustained it, with the usual explanation being that he wears down over a full year given his size. But the skill talent here is better than anything he’s had. Minnesota spent its first three picks on defense, and Jonathan Greenard’s departure for Philadelphia will be felt. Strength: Justin Jefferson grades a 9, and Brian Flores — whose defense finished third in the NFL in passing EPA allowed while the offense finished 29th — is the best coordinator alive at extracting production from a unit without stars. Weakness: Clay grades the quarterback room a 4. The question: is it crazy to think Murray could approximate what Sam Darnold did here in 2024? And if he doesn’t reach those highs but lands somewhere near average, is that enough in this division?

NFC South

1. Buccaneers 9-8 | 2. Saints 8-9 | 3. Panthers 8-9 | 4. Falcons 6-11

Last year this division produced a three-way tie at 8-9, with Carolina taking the crown on a tiebreaker. It’s the closest race on the board and the division where we’ve changed our mind the most.

Tampa Bay. We’re taking the talent. Baker Mayfield called the club’s reported two-year, $100-million-plus offer disrespectful and will play out his deal — and a healthy Mayfield playing with a chip on his shoulder is not the worst thing that could happen to this offense. Vita Vea has requested a trade and is holding in, Mike Evans left for San Francisco and Lavonte David retired. But Emeka Egbuka is back after drawing 127 targets as a rookie, Wirfs and Goedeke anchor a top-four line, and Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith are one of the best safety duos in football. Zac Robinson arrives from Atlanta as Mayfield’s newest coordinator. Strength: the trenches on both sides. Weakness: the vibes, which are objectively terrible. The questions: Bucky Irving played all 17 games as a rookie in 2024 and averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 207 attempts; last year he was limited to 10 games and 3.4 yards on 173. Which is the real number? And Chris Godwin has played 16 total games across two seasons — this offense looks meaningfully better if he’s available.

New Orleans. The under-the-radar pick that nearly became our division pick. The Saints went 5-4 in games Tyler Shough started and 1-7 otherwise, added Travis Etienne and guard David Edwards, drafted Jordyn Tyson eighth overall, and paid Chris Olave up to $132 million. Kellen Moore is in Year 2 with a defined starter, Brandon Staley runs the defense, and Chase Young is coming off 10 sacks in 12 games. Strength: schedule and trajectory. Weakness: over $112 million in dead cap, no depth in the trenches, and Bryan Bresee lost for the year. The question: Shough had the league’s worst pressure-to-sack ratio and a bottom-ten off-target rate, which is a real ceiling on a quarterback who otherwise showed enough. Is he good enough to make the leap this roster is quietly built for?

Carolina. The defending champs overcame a 1-3 start with a 7-6 finish, then had the best offseason in the division — Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd, Rasheed Walker, first-round tackle Monroe Freeling — and have been bitten harder by the injury bug than any team in football. Nic Scourton and rookie receiver Chris Brazzell are out for the year; Taylor Moton and Ikem Ekwonu are on uncertain timetables. Add the third-hardest schedule and Clay’s 5.9-win projection, and we’re taking the over mostly on Derrick Brown (a 9), Devin Lloyd and Tetairoa McMillan. The question: is last year’s version of Bryce Young the real one — and does it matter given the circumstances?

Atlanta. Raheem Morris and GM Terry Fontenot are gone; Kevin Stefanski, Ian Cunningham and team president Matt Ryan inherit a quarterback position that was largely dreadful in 2025. Nobody believes Tua Tagovailoa gets through a season unscathed, and this is Year 3 for Michael Penix Jr., who still hasn’t been cleared for 11-on-11 work — which is why Atlanta signed Cooper Rush in late July. But neither has to be excellent. Tua’s Miami offenses had real stretches, particularly early in seasons; Penix was the eighth pick two years ago. The film reads are unkind to both. Penix completed 60.1 percent of his throws and ranked 35th in completion percentage over expectation, with Drake London and Kyle Pitts bailing out a lot of high misses, and his knee injury was the third ACL tear of his career. Tagovailoa was among the league’s least productive passers between the numbers from 10 to 25 air yards, with a 1-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio on those throws. Strength: the surrounding talent is legitimately good — Bijan Robinson grades a 9 on a new deal worth nearly $67 million, with Drake London (8), Kyle Pitts (7) and Jahan Dotson, plus Jessie Bates and Xavier Watts on the back end. Weakness: right tackle could be a limiting issue, which matters more than usual given both quarterbacks are left-handed and Jawaan Taylor is protecting the blind side.

We’ve projected 6-11, and it’s worth being explicit about why, because it isn’t a verdict on the roster. Tagovailoa’s medical history is what it is — he has been one significant hit away from the end of his career for two years running — and Penix has his own long injury record on top of a knee that still hasn’t cleared him for 11-on-11 work. There’s a genuine scenario where one of them settles in as something like the 20th-best quarterback in the league, the surrounding talent does the rest, and Atlanta finishes near .500. We just can’t project it. The median outcome for a team whose two options both carry this much availability risk is a season spent cycling through quarterbacks, and that’s what 6-11 represents. The questions: can either one simply be available and avoid turnovers? Does edge rusher James Pearce Jr. miss time behind Jalon Walker, already lost for the year? And can this run defense stop anybody?

NFC West

1. Rams 13-4 | 2. Seahawks 11-6 | 3. 49ers 10-7 | 4. Cardinals 4-13

Los Angeles. The closest thing to a preseason superteam the league has had in years: +550 to win it all, 14.9 percent in ESPN’s FPI, and the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense in Clay’s grades — the only team in the guide to lead both. Stafford is the reigning MVP and projects for 4,282 yards and 35 touchdowns. Puka Nacua led the league in receptions and receiving yards per game and grades a 9, with Davante Adams opposite. Strength: no obvious below-average starting unit anywhere on the roster. Weakness: off-field uncertainty around Nacua, and a schedule both models rank among the six hardest. The question: is Aaron Donald coming back — and is there any acceptable excuse if this team doesn’t finish the job in its own building?

Seattle. Fourteen wins, the NFC’s top seed, three losses by a combined nine points, and a Super Bowl blowout. DVOA rated them the third-best champion ever. Strength: Macdonald’s defense, with Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon and reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba all grading 9, and Julian Love, Emmanwori, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas at 8. Weakness: a first-time play-caller, and the departure of a Super Bowl MVP who ran for 135 yards in the title game, with Charbonnet still rehabbing and Emmanwori on PUP. Second is aggressive for a team that lost a Super Bowl MVP — but Sharp has them third, NFL.com third and Clay fourth in projected wins, and nobody has actually beaten them yet. The question: what does this offense look like when nobody is propping Sam Darnold up?

San Francisco. A twelve-win season, a road playoff win in Philadelphia, and a divisional-round exit against the eventual champions. In most divisions the 49ers would be expected to contend. In this one they feel destined for third behind the Rams and Seahawks. The offense has recognizable names and real talent, and also a lot of age: Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk are all older and none of them are finished. Christian McCaffrey was excellent as a receiver out of the backfield last year but averaged 3.9 yards per carry as a pure runner, well below his career norms. Strength: Shanahan, plus McCaffrey, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa all grading 9. Weakness: Ricky Pearsall’s surgery was damaging, Trent Williams is 38, and Kittle is still working back from an Achilles tear. The questions: Brock Purdy was limited to nine games last season and this team can’t surprise anyone if that repeats — though Mac Jones played well in his opportunities. Where are Bosa and Warner physically after their 2025 injuries? And can 2026 second-rounder De’Zhaun Stribling get involved early enough to matter?

Arizona. Mike LaFleur inherits the hardest schedule in the league by both models. Jacoby Brissett is QB1 with Gardner Minshew behind him and third-round pick Carson Beck lurking; Clay grades the room a 3. Strength: more weapons than the record will suggest — Trey McBride grades a 9, No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love an 8, with Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Paris Johnson Jr. and Isaac Seumalo. Josh Sweat and Walter Nolen give the front real juice when healthy. Weakness: everything else. The question: can Arizona get Harrison back on track after two years of offensive dysfunction?

Projected Playoff Seeding

BSL AFC: 1. Bills · 2. Ravens · 3. Texans · 4. Chargers · 5. Broncos · 6. Patriots · 7. Bengals BSL NFC: 1. Rams · 2. Lions · 3. Eagles · 4. Buccaneers · 5. Seahawks · 6. Packers · 7. 49ers

Buffalo is our AFC favorite outright; Baltimore is the North favorite and close behind, with Denver, the Chargers and Houston in the next group. The Chargers win the West at 10-7 in a three-way scrum with Denver and Kansas City, which is about as thin a division title as we could project. The sixth and seventh seeds are a genuine coin flip between New England and Cincinnati, and the argument runs in both directions: Cincinnati has the better schedule and the higher ceiling, New England the better bet that its quarterback plays all seventeen games. If Burrow is available for a full season, the Bengals are almost certainly a playoff team. The Chiefs are our first team out at 10-7, which remains the call in this piece we’d most expect to be wrong. Dallas is the NFC’s first team out at 9-8.

For comparison, Clay’s model produces: AFC: Ravens, Broncos, Bills, Texans, Bengals, Patriots, Chiefs. NFC: Rams, Lions, Eagles, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers.

Breakout Watch: Five Names to Know

• Abdul Carter, EDGE, Giants. Seventy-two pressures as a rookie — including a league-best 48 in under 2.5 seconds — and only four sacks. Clay projects 7.9 this year. The finishing will come.
• Mike Green, EDGE, Ravens. Three and a half sacks as a rookie, and now gets to attack opposite of Hendrickson in an attacking scheme.
• Travis Hunter, CB, Jaguars. Full-time corner, part-time offensive weapon, on a defense that was first in EPA per play down the stretch. Clay projects him as the top fantasy corner in football.
• Cedric Gray, LB, Titans. Fifth in the NFL with 160 tackles as a first-time starter, now the centerpiece of a Saleh-Bradley zone scheme.
• Colston Loveland, TE, Bears. The 2025 first-rounder was good enough as a rookie to cut Cole Kmet from 73 catches in 2023 to 30 last season. Now DJ Moore’s targets are in Buffalo, Luther Burden III missed the preseason, and Clay projects Loveland for 118 targets and 898 yards — fourth among all tight ends. Ben Johnson built his Detroit offenses around tight end usage, and this is the first year he has the personnel to do it in Chicago.

Five Biggest Storylines Entering Week 1

1. The Rams are a superteam, and the NFL hasn’t had one of these in a while. Los Angeles carries an implied 12.5 percent championship probability after adjusting for the vig, more than five points clear of the Bills and Ravens. Les Snead traded Jared Verse and three picks for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, traded for Trent McDuffie, signed Jaylen Watson, extended Stafford, and has Aaron Donald working out in the building. Clay’s model has them first in scoring offense and first in scoring defense. Historically, teams that separate this dramatically before September have a mixed record of finishing the job — and the Super Bowl is at SoFi. The Ty Simpson pick at No. 13 will read as foresight or hubris depending entirely on February.

2. A coaching carousel that reshaped the league’s power structure. John Harbaugh is with the Giants after 18 seasons in Baltimore. Mike Tomlin is out in Pittsburgh after 20. Sean McDermott was fired in Buffalo, Raheem Morris in Atlanta. Jesse Minter, Joe Brady, Mike McCarthy, Todd Monken, Kevin Stefanski, Robert Saleh, Klint Kubiak, Mike LaFleur and Jeff Hafley are all running teams for the first time in their current chairs. Mike McDaniel is calling plays for the Chargers instead of running the Dolphins. Sean Payton handed play-calling to Davis Webb. Twenty-two teams — more than two-thirds of the league — will open the season with a new offensive coordinator. The AFC North alone has three new head coaches, two of them first-timers.

3. The skill-position market has fully broken. Jaxon Smith-Njigba reset the receiver market at $42.15 million per year. Zay Flowers got $35 million on two 1,000-yard seasons. Chris Olave signed for up to $132 million without a Pro Bowl. There are now a dozen receivers making at least $30 million annually and exactly one offensive tackle. And after years of being told they don’t matter, Bijan Robinson (nearly $67 million), Jonathan Taylor (two years, $44 million) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($22.5 million per year) all cashed in inside a two-week window. Puka Nacua’s next deal may reset everything again.

4. Quarterback second chances, everywhere you look. Kyler Murray beat out J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota. Rodgers is back in Pittsburgh at 42 for a final season. Cousins is holding the seat for Mendoza in Las Vegas. Tagovailoa, Penix and Cooper Rush are sorting it out in Atlanta. Watson, Sanders, Gabriel and Green are sorting it out in Cleveland. Malik Willis gets his first Week 1 start in Miami. Jacoby Brissett is bridging to Carson Beck in Arizona. Geno Smith is back where he started, in New York. A third of the league has organized its season around a player somebody else gave up on.

5. The AFC hierarchy is genuinely open — and Kansas City isn’t at the top of it. The Chiefs enter ninth in FPI, their worst preseason ranking since 2018, and Clay has them as the No. 7 seed. Baltimore, Buffalo, Denver, Houston, New England and now the Chargers all have credible paths to the top seed. Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL behind a roster that is objectively less talented than a year ago. For the first time since he took over, the road to the Super Bowl does not obviously run through Arrowhead. Our answer is that it runs through Orchard Park, with Baltimore close enough behind that a single January afternoon decides it.

The post 2026 NFL Preview: Power Rankings, Win Totals, and Every Team’s Defining Question appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Let’s not waste any more time. My last post was Ravens-specific, but this time I wanted to share my Top 50 Big Board and a full first round mock complete with trades. Let’s get after it!

My 2026 NFL Draft Top 50 Big Board

1. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
2. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
3. Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
4. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
5. Sonny Styles, LB, LSU
6. Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
7. Rueben Bain Jr, DE, Miami
8. David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
9. Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State
10. Peter Woods, DL, Clemson
11. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
12. Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
13. Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech
14. KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
15. Keonte Scott, DB, Miami
16. CJ Allen, LB, Georgia
17. Vega Ioane, G, Penn State
18. Jermod McCoy, DB, Tennessee
19. Kenyod Sadiq, TE, Oregon
20. Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
21. Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
22. Makai Lemon, WR, USC
23. Dilllon Thieneman, S, Oregon
24. Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
25. Keith Abney II, DB, Arizona State
26. Kedrick Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
27. Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State
28. Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
29. Avieon Terrell, DB, Clemson
30. Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami
31. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
32. Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State
33. Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M
34. Emmanuel Pregnon, G, Oregon
35. Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
36. D’Angelo Ponds, CB, Indiana
37. Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
38. Derrick Moore, DE, Michigan
39. Gennings Dunker, G, Iowa
40. Omar Cooper, WR, Indiana
41. Caleb Banks, DT, Florida
42. Julian Neal, CB, Arkansas
43. Kamari Ramsey, S, USC
44. Chris Brazzell, WR, Tennessee
45. Zachariah Branch, WR, Georgia
46. Keylan Rutledge, G, Georgia Tech
47. Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame
48. Skyler Bell, WR, UConn
49. R. Mason Thomas, DE, FSU
50. Chris Bell, WR, Louisville

As you can see, this list is wide receiver, offensive line, and edge defender-heavy. Not great if you need a quarterback, but we knew that. I’ll also say the offensive line and safety positions are probably the deepest in my opinion, which is good news for teams like Baltimore, New York (Jets and Giants), Cleveland, San Francisco, and Miami.

Speaking of other teams, here is my final 2026 NFL Mock Draft:

1. (Raiders) Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. TRADE (Browns from Jets) Jeremiah Love, RB, Notre Dame

· Cleveland sends Nos. 6, 24, and 39 overall to New York for Nos. 2 and 44 overall

3. (Cardinals) Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

4. (Titans) Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

5. (Giants) Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

6. (Jets, from Browns) Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

7. (Commanders) Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State

8. (Saints) David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech

9. (Chiefs) Rueben Bain, Jr., IDL, Miami (FL)

10. (Bengals) Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

11. (Dolphins) Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

12. (Cowboys) Francis Mauigoa, OL, Miami (FL)

13. (Rams) Makai Lemon, WR, Southern Cal

14. (Ravens) Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

15. (Buccaneers) Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State

16. (Jets) Peter Woods, IDL, Clemson

17. (Lions) Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

18. (Vikings) Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

19. (Panthers) KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

20. (Cowboys) Jacob Rodriguez, ILB, Texas Tech

21. TRADE (Bears from Steelers) Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

· Chicago sends Nos. 25, 89, and 129 overall to Pittsburgh for Nos. 21 and 99 overall

22. (Chargers) Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

23. (Eagles) Denzel Boston, WR, Washington

24. (Jets from Browns via Jaguars) Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn

25. (Steelers from Bears) Omar Cooper, Jr., WR, Indiana

26. (Bills) Chris Brazzell II, WR, Tennessee

27. (49ers) Emmanuel Pregnon, OG, Oregon

28. (Texans) Keylan Rutledge, OG, Georgia Tech

29. TRADE (Dolphins from Chiefs) Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

· Miami sends Nos. 29 and 148 overall to Kansas City for Nos. 30 and 130 overall

30. (Chiefs from Dolphins) Chris Bell, WR, Louisville

31. (Patriots) Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

32. (Seahawks) Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame

What are your thoughts? Let us know!

Can’t wait.

The post 2026 NFL Draft Top 50 Big Board and Final First Round Mock appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The devil or the raven is in the details, a new matte black helmet, and black talon stripes are nice touches but overall, the shirts and pants don’t look that different from the changes they made almost twenty-seven seasons ago. I have a feeling that with all eyes on Eric DeCosta to have a superb draft class he will lean more on the team’s history for the kind players that they will add this week, although I wouldn’t mind a few more risks.

Best Player Available vs. Biggest Needs

For years, Baltimore has trusted their board and often let the draft come to them. It’s a philosophy that has served them well over the years, but the question isn’t if it works, it’s is that that works now for this draft.

DeCosta has stated that he feels that the talent level falls off midway through Round One, so that could make Baltimore’s pick a sweet spot to land a blue-chip prospect at number 14.

Most experts and mocks are predicting the team will prioritize interior lineman or pass catchers for Lamar Jackson. While Connor Lew (Auburn) is the top-rated Center, many believe that the team will go instead with Vega Ioane the huge blocker from Penn State, or Spencer Fano (Utah), a versatile blocker who could fill multiple roles up front.

There have also been some sites that have linked offensive weapons like Makai Lemon (USC) who could be paired with Zay Flowers or Tight End Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)who has 4.39 speed and would help solidify a depleted Tight End room with the losses of Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar.

Of course, there is always the possibility of trading back to gather more draft capital but with Baltimore holding eleven picks in the draft I don’t think that seems likely.

I think the Ravens stay on brand here and select Vega Ioane who seems to be the most frequent projection, has a bit of a mean streak and has the most plug and play potential available. Sometimes the best player out there fits a glaring need, as well.

Building Around Lamar – What’s missing?

The structure around the two-time MVP has been the focus and will continue to be so in Baltimore if they are to return the playoffs and make a run.

The team still has holes on the Offensive line especially with the departure of Tyler Linderbaum. A possible replacement could be Logan Jones, a Rimington trophy winner who attended the same school also is a possibility to play right away.

With Rashod Batman’s inconsistency issues returning and the need for more depth aside from Devontez Walker Baltimore could look to add to the receiving corps. The second and third rounds could offer some help there with Germie Bernard (Alabama) being a popular selection with 4.48 speed as well as Tai Felton (Maryland) who also could be a dangerous alternative. The Ravens also could find their Tight End here too. Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt) has had a formal combine with the team and is a favorite of Mel Kiper, while Mason Taylor (LSU) may also be a possibility.

Plenty of Needs

With 11 picks, DeCosta is expected to be aggressive and with multiple fifth round picks at his disposal he should be. He could look to package picks to trade up if one of the Ravens main targets is in danger of being snapped up.

I mentioned earlier about the strategy of best player against need. I feel like the Ravens will lean more into needs due to so many players leaving due to free agency. Having cost-controlled talent that can help you will be important in 2026.

I expect during the first several rounds for Baltimore that they reinvest in both lines. It was a sign of weakness last season when it came to protecting Lamar and being able to get penetration on the defensive side. Jesse Minter’s defense relies on getting pressure with the interior and being able to drop the rest into coverage and doesn’t blitz much.

Here’s how I see it:

First Round (14) -Vega Ioane (OG) (Penn State) – He did not allow a single sack in 2025 and is a mauler type that reasserts a physical presence along the line.

Second Round (45) – Caleb Banks (DT) (Florida) – 6’6” Game wrecker with a quick first step and a ton of potential.

Third Round (80) – Connor Lew (IOL) (Auburn) – The Ravens have a history of drafting Centers and he’s the best option available there.

Fourth Round (115) – Chris McClellan (DL) (Missouri) – Added depth piece to a rebuilding Defensive Line.

That’s much of the early draft capital being devoted to the lines. In the latter rounds, there is a need for coverage at Running Back, Corner, and a starting Punter. Jeff Yurk was an All-American Punter at Elon and is a rising prospect that the Ravens may draft in the seventh round to eliminate a bidding war with other teams such as Minnesota. Yurk had a private workout with Baltimore and the interest in him in reported to be significant.

The post Third And Short: Draft Week Edition appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

How Off Was I To Start The Year?

Prior to Week 1, my comments on the Patriots and Seahawks were:

New England is picked to finish 2nd in the AFC East by basically everyone. Tre’Vyon Henderson, and Stefon Diggs should add some juice to the offense. The defense looks solid. All eyes will be on 2nd year QB Drake Maye. Maye looks talented enough to lift up his teammates. 

Seattle is an interesting team going into ’25. Sam Darnold is at QB after his marvelous ’24 season in Minnesota. Darnold no longer has Justin Jefferson to throw to, but he does have Jaxson Smith-Nigba, Cooper Kupp, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling at WR. The left side of the O-Line looks good.  Is right side of the line tolerable? Does RB Kenneth Walker bounce back some?  Can Kupp stay available (9 games, 12 games, 12 games) the last 3 years. He doesn’t have to be the 145 catch Kupp from the ’21 season, but he does have to take some attention off of Smith-Nigba. I don’t know what to expect from Darnold exactly. He was draft into the league in 2018 and it never clicked for him. People raved about the talent, but there is never enough talk about the surrounding talent and system.  Last year he had an opportunity and ran with it. Played at a level where he was getting MVP votes at year end. Now people are fixated on his loss in the Wild Card. My take would be expecting him to perform like a Pro Bowler might be expecting too much, but he has a chance to better for Seattle in ’25 than the Seahawks got from Geno Smith in ’24. This is Year 2 for Mike Macdonald as HC for Seattle. The defense has a chance to be amongst the best in the league. If they can pound the ball with Walker, and get a good play action game going; Seattle can be right in that playoff mix. Their over / under is set at 8.5, and that seems about right.

Can’t say I’m happy with my comments on either.
I thought both New England Seattle could be playoff teams; but I can’t say I expected either to be playing for a Super Bowl.

Reviewing Their Regular Seasons

New England won the AFC East, going 14-3.
They were 6-3 at home, 8-0 on the road, and outscored their opposition by 170 points.
They won their last 3 regular season games.
The Patriots started their season 1-2, and went 13-1 the rest of the way.

Seattle won the NFC West, also going 14-3.
They were 6-2 at home, 8-1 on the road, and outscored their opposition by 191 points.
They won their last 7 regular season games.
In Seattle’s three losses, they were outscored by a combined 9 points.

Drake Maye was a 2nd team All-Pro for the Patriots.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba was 1st team All-Pro for Seattle, with Ernest Jones, and Devon Witherspoon named to the 2nd team.

Christian Gonzalez was named to Pro Bowl for NE.
Sam Darnold, and DeMarcus Lawrence were Pro Bowlers for Seattle.

Based on average DVOA by opponent, the Patriots had the third-easiest schedule since 1978!

Final DVOA Rankings To End The Regular Season

Seattle – 1st overall, 10th offense, 1st defense, 2nd in special teams.
New England – 9th overall, 3rd offense, 23rd defense, 20th in special teams.

Their Playoff Paths

New England – The 2 seed in the AFC won in the Wild Card Round beating the Chargers 16-3, won the Divisional Round with a 28-16 victory over Houston, and won the AFC Championship today beating the Broncos 10-7 in Denver. It wasn’t the prettiest performance today for the Patriots; but you have to account for the Broncos quality defense and the deteriorating weather.

Seattle – The 1 seed in the NFC had a bye in the Wild Card Round, crushed SF 41-6 in the Divisional Round, and won the NFC Championship today beating the Rams 31-27.

The Head Coaches 

New England – Mike Vrabel. This was Year 1 for Vrabel (50 years old) as Head Coach with New England, after 8 years with the Patriots as a player. This was Vrabel’s 7th season as an NFL Head Coach. He’s 68-48 all-time in the regular season, and today was Vrabel’s 2nd Conference Championship Game as a HC.

Seattle – Mike Macdonald. This was Year 2 as the Seahawks Head Coach for the 38 year old former Ravens DC. Macdonald has started his HC career with a 24-10 regular season record.

Initial Prediction

The whole world outside of Boston is going to be anticipating a Seattle win, myself included.

The Seahawks are stronger on both sides of the ball, as well as Special Teams.

I haven’t seen an initial line, but I’d make Seattle a 7 point favorite.

But we’ve seen this story before.

If you are the underdog in the Super Bowl, you don’t have to beat the favorite 4x, you have to win once.

Drake Maye is probably going to finish 2nd in the NFL MVP vote.
I see Maye as more of an upper 1/3 talent vs. an Elite MVP talent; but he played at a consistently high level this year.
A fantastic season for the second year pro.
He’s certainly good enough to have a hot day – even against a very talented Seattle defense – and elevate the Patriots in a one game scenario.
Against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round Maye had 10 carries for 66 yards.  Against Denver today, he had 10 carries for 65 yards.
I believe the Patriots will need more of that in the Super Bowl.

Vrabel will have the Patriots galvanized with an, “Us vs. the world mentality.” 
By gametime, the Patriots will be foaming at the mouth to show they deserve more ‘respect.’
That makes for a dangerous team.

And the flip side of that is the Seahawks are going to spend the next two weeks hearing about they actually already won the Super Bowl when they beat the Rams for the NFC Title.
If the Patriots come out and have some initial success, and Seattle tastes adversity for the first time – that could be a recipe for a Patriots upset.

That outcome would still surprise me though.

The Patriots played the teams on their schedule, and get credit for controlling what they could control – but they played a very weak schedule this season.
I think their a solid playoff team, who is over their skis getting this far.
Everything points to Seattle exposing them a bit.

I think back to the Patriots December 22nd win in Baltimore.
The Ravens ran for 171 yards (5.2 yards per carry) in that game, and found a way to lose.
I expect Seattle will be able to run on the Patriots and set-up their play action game.
I picture Seattle building a lead, and their defense ultimately teeing off on Maye.
Certainly would be surprised to see Seattle’s defense crumble if they’re playing from ahead.

The Pick: 31-17 Seahawks, and a second Super Bowl title for Seattle.

The post Super Bowl 60 – New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Initial Thoughts appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Let’s look at where things stand across the AFC & NFC prior to this weekend’s games.

All playoff odds mentioned are per ESPN Analytics.

Here is a link to the DVOA Rankings heading into Week 14.

NFC

NFC East – Philadelphia enters this week on a two game losing streak. Had Dallas been able to get past Detroit, they could have put a bit of pressure on the Eagles. With the Cowboys loss, the Eagles have a 2 game margin in the loss column. The Eagles currently have a 95% chance of winning the division, and a 96% of making the playoffs.  Dallas is now 6-6-1, and their playoff odds are down to 8%, with a 5% chance of winning the East.  The Eagles are 11th overall DVOA, with the 11th ranked offense, and 9th ranked defense.

NFC North – Chicago is leading the division at 9-3, and has won their last 5.  Green Bay is 8-3-1, with Detroit now 8-5.  The Packers have the highest odds of reaching the post-season at 89%, and are given a 56% chance of claiming the North.  The Bears are given a 75% chance of  making the playoffs, and a 32% chance at the division. The Lions are given a 58% chance at the post-season, and 12% of repeating as the division winner.  Detroit – even before their win last night – was the top ranked North team by DVOA at 4th overall, with the 5th ranked offense, and 6th ranked defense.  Green Bay was right behind at 5th overall, with the 4th ranked offense, and the 7th ranked defense. Chicago is still just 19th overall in DVOA, with the offense at 12th, but only the 25th ranked defense.

NFC South – Tampa Bay is atop the South at 7-5, with the Panthers now just a 1/2 game behind at 7-6. The Bucs have an 80% of making the playoffs, and a 79% chance at winning the division. Carolina has a 23% of reaching the playoffs, and a 21% chance at a division title.  The Bucs are 15th overall in DVOA, with the 18th ranked offense, and the 8th ranked defense. Carolina comes in 26th overall in DVOA, with the 26th ranked offense, and 22nd ranked defense.

NFC West – Three teams with 9 wins, with the LA Rams and Seattle both 9-3, and the 49ers at 9-4. SF is given a 91% of making the playoffs, the Rams 91%, and Seattle 88%.  LA is given the best odds at the division at 49%, SF at 27%, and the Seahawks at 25%.  Seattle and the Rams are 1st, and 2nd overall in DVOA.  The Seahawks have the 8th ranked offense, and 1st ranked defense. The Rams are 1st in offense, 4th in defense. The Niners are 10th overall in DVOA, with the 6th best offense, but just the 24th ranked defense.

Currently the most likely seeding is:

1 LA Rams
2 Green Bay
3 Philadelphia
4 Tampa Bay
5 San Francisco
6 Seattle
7 Detroit

The Rams are given the highest odds of reaching the Super Bowl at 23%.

AFC

AFC East – With 11 wins, New England has nearly a 100% of making the playoffs, and currently are given an 84% chance of winning the East. The Bills have a 91% of making the post-season, but at 8-4 only a 16% chance of winning their six consecutive division title.  While the Pats have 11 wins, their just 14th overall in DVOA with the 10th ranked offense, and 26th rated defense. Buffalo is 9th overall, with the 9th ranked offense, and 20th ranked defense.

AFC North – The Ravens have a 59% chance of making the playoffs, which is equal to their chance of winning the division. Pittsburgh is given a 34% chance of the post-season, and a 33% chance of winning the North. Cincinnati has an 8% chance of winning the division. Baltimore dropped from 13th to 18th overall in DVOA after the Thanksgiving loss to Cincinnati. The Ravens have the 17th ranked offense, and 21st ranked defense. Pittsburgh is now 13th overall, with the 22nd ranked offense, and 12th ranked defense. Cincinnati comes in at 28th overall, with the 32nd rated defense.

AFC South – The Jaguars and Colts are both 8-4, with Houston a game back at 7-5. Jacksonville has won their last 3, Houston their last 4, and the Colts have dropped their last 2. Jacksonville is given an 85% chance of making the playoffs, Indianapolis is at 74%, and the Texans are a coin flip at 51%. The Colts have the highest odds at winning at the division at 41%, with Jacksonville right behind at 40%. Houston is given a 19% chance at the South title. Indianapolis is 3rd overall in DVOA, with the 2nd ranked offense, and 13th ranked defense. Houston is 8th overall with the 24th ranked offense, and 2nd ranked defense. Jacksonville is 12th overall with the 21st ranked offense, and 10th ranked defense.

AFC West – Denver is 10-2 and has won 9 straight. They’ve got a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and a 84% chance at the West. The Chargers are 8-4, and Kansas City is 6-6. LA has a 59% chance at the playoffs, and a 11% chance at the division. The Chiefs have won the West 9 straight years. That run appears over, with KC given only a 2% at winning the division. They still have a 41% chance at making the playoffs. By DVOA, KC is the top rated team in the West, 6th overall with the 3rd ranked offense, and 18th ranked defense. Denver is 7th overall, with the 15th ranked offense, and 5th ranked defense. LAC is 17th overall, with the 13th ranked offense, and 15th ranked defense.

Currently the most likely seeding is:

1 New England
2 Denver
3 Indianapolis
4 Baltimore
5 Buffalo
6 Jacksonville
7 Kansas City

The Broncos are given the highest odds of reaching the Super Bowl at 19%.

Sunday December 7th Games Of Note

Seattle at Atlanta – The Seahawks are a TD favorite, and given a 61.8% chance of winning.

Cincinnati at Buffalo – After beating the Ravens in Baltimore, the Bengals are 4-8. Their remaining schedule after this trip to Buffalo is the Ravens at home, at Miami, Arizona, and Cleveland. Their post-season odds go up dramatically if they’re able to upset the Bills. The Bills are a 6 point favorite, and given a 63.1% chance of winning. Seems like a likely shootout.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay – The Bucs have lost 3 of 4. Do they build off of their win over Arizona last week? They’re an 8.5 point favorite, and given a 73.5% chance of winning.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – The first of two games between these divisional foes. The Colts are a 1.5 point road favorite, and given a 55.2% chance of winning.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – The first of two games between these divisional foes. The Ravens are a 6 point favorite, and given a 65.4% chance of winning.  Lamar Jackson has been dealing with numerous injuries. Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken said this week, “I just give him a lot of credit – he’s battling each week trying to get healthy enough to be able to play every Sunday,” Monken said. “I mean, that’s what I see out of him. I see a guy that’s battling little nagging injuries, things that are stopping him from being able to get out there every day and practice.”  And then Jackson missed another practice yesterday, after getting his foot stepped on.

Denver at Las Vegas – The number 1 overall seed in the AFC remains in play, and the Broncos are a 7.5 point favorite here, and given a 69% chance of winning.

Chicago at Green Bay – The first of two games between these divisional foes. The Packers are a 6.5 point home favorite, and given a 69% chance of winning.

LA Rams at Arizona – The Rams are 8.5 point favorites, and given a 64.5% chance of winning.

Houston at Kansas City – It’s a game both teams need. The Texans are 3-3 on the road, while KC is 5-1 at home.  KC is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 66.1% chance of winning.

Monday December 8th

Philadelphia at LA Chargers – The Eagles are 4-2 on the road, while LA is 5-2 at home. Philadelphia is a 2.5 point road favorite, and given a 58.5% chance of winning. Justin Herbert is expected to play with a broken bone in his non-throwing hand.

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New England is certainly one of the stories of the year.  I thought they could be a playoff team, but the 8-2 start has surprised me.

Drake Maye is the current MVP favorite, and Mike Vrabel is the current favorite for NFL Head Coach of the Year.

They’ve won 7 in a row entering tonight, and they are 5-0 on the road.

All credit to them for what they’ve accomplished so far this season; but I don’t think anyone would be afraid of facing them in the playoffs.

Entering tonight, New England is 17th overall in DVOA with the 9th ranked offense, and the 29th ranked defense.

Maye is having a fantastic 2nd season.

Stefon Diggs has 50 receptions, and five other teammates have 20+.

Rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson is averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

There is some collective performance here, and Maye is clearly spreading the ball around and elevating everyone – but this isn’t a group you’d fear as an opposing Defensive Coordinator.

Not trying to throw cold water on them.

Vrabel and Maye deserve respect, and their good enough to believe the Pats could have a chance in any game vs. anyone.
Also, their road record points to an overall maturity with the roster.

I’m surprised by their regular season so far.
I’m not expecting them to win multiple playoff games.
Maybe I’ll be surprised again.

Week 11 Quick Hits: 

All percentages via ESPN’s Match-up Predictor. 

Thursday Nov. 13th

NY Jets at New England –  The Patriots are given a 71.2% chance of winning, and are a 12.5 point favorite. After starting the year 0-7, the Jets have won their last two. Somehow they got a win last week with Justin Fields completing 6 of 11 attempts for 54 yards.  Fields was a 1st round pick in 2021.  The criticism he regularly gets is that he holds the ball too long, and doesn’t work quickly through his progressions. That’s a critique which can inhibit a guy from ever reaching his ceiling. But despite that limitation, I’ve thought that Fields could be a legitimate bottom 1/3 starting QB. Not good, but usable with his athleticism and strong arm. In 2022 he rushed for 1,143 yards (7.1 yards per attempt). This year he’s averaging 5.3 per carry.  Life for Fields doesn’t get any easier, as WR Garrett Wilson has been placed on IR and will miss at-least the next four games.

Sunday Nov. 16th

Washington vs. Miami – Everyone had DC stepping back this year after reaching the NFC Championship last year.  And that’s happened. And with the time Jayden Daniels has missed, combined with their defensive issues; it’s not surprising to anyone. Just a lost year.  DC will need to regroup, and invest in the blocking in-front of Daniels. Maybe they surprise again next year. Miami’s last four games have been up and down. 25 point loss in Cleveland. 24 point win in Atlanta. 22 point loss at home to the Ravens. 17 point win vs. Buffalo.  Didn’t see that win vs. the Bills coming. This game vs. Washington is in Madrid. Washington is given a 52.9% chance of winning, and is a 2.5 point favorite.

Carolina at Atlanta – The Falcons have dropped 4 in a row to fall to 3-6.  Pretty disappointing stretch for a team which does have talent. Most important thing for Atlanta the rest of the way is the play of Michael Penix. If he comes on down the stretch and they believe in him going forward – they can enter the off-season feeling good about where things are going.  Carolina being 5-5 isn’t going to get a ton of headlines, but HC Dave Canales gets credit for having a pretty limited team competitive each week. That said, that was a bad loss last week vs. the Saints at home. Carolina has scored 45 total points in their last four games.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo – After that loss to the Dolphins, the Bills have lost 3 of 5. They’re going to need this game to keep pace with the Patriots. The Bucs and Bills are both 6-3.  Tampa Bay is 4-1 on the road, while Buffalo is 4-1 at home.  Buffalo is given a 61% chance of winning, and is a 5.5 point favorite.  In DVOA, Tampa is 10th overall, with the 15th rated offense, and 7th rated defense.  The Bills are 11th overall with the 6th rated offense, and 22nd rated defense. Baker Mayfield is having another strong season, despite often not having Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving available. Evans seems likely to play this week, and of course Mayfield has had Rookie WR Emeka Egbuka available. Egbuka is averaging 16.9 yards per reception on his 40 catches so far this year.

Houston at Tennessee – The Texans can get back to .500 with a win here, but they’ll have to beat the Titans without CJ Stroud who will miss his second straight game. Houston is 8th overall in DVOA, with the 21st ranked offense, and the 1st ranked defense. If Houston can reach the post-season, that’s a team which could surprise.  Defense should give you a chance vs. anyone. Stroud capable of getting hot.  Houston is a 5.5 point favorite here.

Chicago at Minnesota – The 6-3 Bears travel to Minnesota to face the 4-5 Vikings.  The Bears are 25th overall in DVOA, with the 16th ranked offense, and 28th ranked defense. This seems like a game where Vikings QB JJ McCarrhy and his WR’s could get going. Minnesota is a 2.5 point home favorite, and given a 50.1% chance of winning. Rome Odunze is dealing with an ankle injury. After a career low 9.9 yards per reception last year, DJ Moore is averaging 13.4 this season – back in-line with his 13.5 career average. Moore is dealing with a shoulder injury.

Green Bay at NY Giants – The Packers are 5-3-1 after losing their last two games.  I’m still on Green Bay as one of the 8 or so teams capable of winning a Super Bowl; but 20 total points in these back-to-back losses have thinned the bandwagon. They’ve got good weapons, though they’ve now lost TE Tucker Kraft for the year. Rightly or wrongly, that leads to additional scrutiny on Jordan Love. Love has more than enough talent to win with. Love’s completion percentage is up, his interception percentage is down. He is being sacked more this year. While I think Green Bay is Super Bowl capable, they still have to get to the playoffs first. Right now they’re trailing both Detroit and Chicago in the NFC North. The Packers are a 7.5 point favorite.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – The Bengals were off last week after putting up 42 points on Chicago in a losing effort two weeks ago. In that game, Joe Flacco threw for 470 yards, and 4 TD’s.  This is Flacco’s second game vs. the Steelers in a Bengals uniform. In his first game with Cincinnati, Flacco and the Bengals beat the Steelers 33-31 Oct.17th.  Pittsburgh enters the game having lost 3 of 4, to fall to 5-4 overall. The Steelers as a whole – and Aaron Rodgers in particular – had a rough game vs. the Chargers this past weekend.  Is Rodgers going to fall apart as the weeks get colder?  Pittsburgh is 13th overall in DVOA, 17th in offense, 15th in defense. Pittsburgh is a 5.5 point favorite, and given a 58.6% chance of winning.

LA Chargers at Jacksonville – The 7-3 Chargers at the 5-4 Jags. LA is a 2.5 point road favorite, and given a 56.7% chance of winning. LA is 14th overall in DVOA, with the 14th ranked offense, and 12th ranked defense. A balanced team with a quality Head Coach and a quality QB. Again, that’s a team which could surprise in January. They enter this game having won their last 3.  The Jags have lost 3 of 4. If they could win here, they could start to get hot with trips to Arizona and Tennessee next up on their schedule.

Seattle at LA Rams – Per DVOA, this is a match-up of the two best teams in the league.  The Seahawks are 1st overall with the 4th ranked offense, and 3rd ranked defense.  The Rams are 2nd overall with the 2nd ranked offense, and 6th ranked defense.  Mike MacDonald in Year 2 at the helm of the Seahawks, 39 year old Sean McVay in Year 9 with the Rams.  Matthew Stafford is currently 2nd in the MVP race odds.  Sam Darnold had the breakout season last year with Minnesota, and he’s having another quality year this season with the Rams. Both of these NFC West teams are 7-2 with Seattle 4-0 on the road, and the Rams 3-1 at home. Both teams have won 4 in a row. First of two games between these teams. The Rams are given a 59.9% chance of winning, and are a 3.5 point favorite.

San Francisco at Arizona – The 49ers have lost 3 of 5, but are expected to get Brock Purdy back this week. The offense has remained productive (7th overall in DVOA), but the defense is just 26th. Might be too many injuries for SF to get past. SF is given a 57.5% chance of winning, and is a 2.5 point road favorite. Not a lot to say about Arizona. They’ll be without Marvin Harrison Jr (appendicitis). Kyler Murray is on IR, and if he does return this year – he’s not expected to start again in a Cardinals uniform.

Baltimore at Cleveland – The Ravens will attempt to run their winning streak to 4, and get to .500. It’s a division game, and the Ravens are on the road; but no excuses here, it’s a game they have to win. After missing practice yesterday, Lamar Jackson was back on the field today.

Kansas City at Denver – An AFC West battle. Denver is leading the division at 8-2.  KC is 5-4.  Obviously it’s a must-win game for KC if they are going to rally to win the West. If the Chiefs lose here, not only is the division race likely over, but KC’s chances of making the playoffs would take a hit. The Match-Up predictor is giving KC a 60% chance of winning, which feels high. Vegas also likes the Chiefs, placing them as a 3.5 point favorite. KC is 5th overall in DVOA with the 3rd ranked offense, and 14th ranked defense. The Broncos are 9th overall, with the 18th ranked offense, and 2nd ranked defense. Denver is 5-0 at home, while the Chiefs are 1-3 on the road. Bo Nix is taking a fair amount of criticism right now, but he’s not exactly surrounded by a lot of offensive talent. JK Dobbins is having a good year at RB, but he’s questionable with a foot injury. If he’s not able to go, RJ Harvey is plenty capable. The Broncos have won 7 in a row.

Detroit at Philadelphia – The NFC North leading Lions at the NFC East leading (and defending Super Bowl Champion) Eagles. Philly has won their last 3 games, and are a 2.5 point favorite here. They are given a 50.8% chance of winning. Detroit is 4th overall in DVOA with the 5th ranked offense, and 5th ranked defense. The Eagles are 7th overall with the 8th ranked offense, and 13th ranked defense. The Lions have alternated wins and losses over the last month.

Monday Nov. 17th

Dallas at Las Vegas – At 3-5-1, the Cowboys don’t have a great path to the post-season. A loss here would only lower those limited odds. Dallas is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 58.6% chance of winning.

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