Below: full power rankings against the market and the models, over/under calls on all 32, a ranking of the eight divisions, the trench units that decide January, the ten best coaching staffs, division-by-division projections with a defining question for each team, and the five storylines that will shape the year.

Three outside inputs get referenced throughout. Clay is Mike Clay’s ESPN projection guide (updated August 12th), which produces a projected win total and 1-to-10 unit grades at ten positions for all 32 teams. Sharp is Warren Sharp’s work — both his strength-of-schedule model, where 1 is the easiest slate and 32 the hardest, and Raymond Summerlin’s Sharp Football power rankings. Line is the DraftKings win total. Where 2025 EPA rankings appear, they’re from The Ringer’s team pages; note that both Diante Lee’s power rankings and Steven Ruiz’s quarterback rankings there are February snapshots taken before free agency and the draft, so we’ve used the underlying data and film analysis rather than the orderings or the team labels.

Power Rankings Entering 2026

On the Chargers. NFL.com has them 17th and Clay projects 9.5 wins against what he rates the fourth-hardest schedule. But Sharp Football has them fifth, and we have them eighth — so this isn’t as lonely a position as it looked a week ago. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater both missed most of a season in which Los Angeles still won 11 games, and both are back. Mike McDaniel replaced Greg Roman as play-caller. Camp reports describe motion, constant personnel churn, and Justin Herbert diagnosing coverage pre-snap — from a team that ranked 24th in red-zone passer rating a year ago.

On the Packers. Sharp has Green Bay fourth, calling it an out-on-a-limb pick built on Jordan Love ranking sixth in EPA per dropback over three seasons. We can’t get there with Micah Parsons, Devonte Wyatt, Tucker Kraft and Zach Bako-Bewele all rehabbing and Josh Jacobs’ legal status unresolved.

Ranking the Eight Divisions

We have the NFC West first on top-end quality — the Rams, the champs, and a perennial January team — while NFL.com takes the NFC North for depth, and that’s a fair argument in a division where the 2025 champion (Chicago) finished ahead of a Lions team that tied for last at 9-8.

Our one real departure is at the bottom. NFL.com has the NFC South eighth, and the case is obvious: the 2025 division was decided by a three-way tiebreaker among 8-9 teams. But we’d rather have four teams that could all finish 8-9 than a division housing two of the league’s five worst rosters. Buffalo and New England are both very good. The Jets and Dolphins are projected for 9.7 combined wins by Clay’s model, and we have them at nine.

The Quarterback Tiers

Two industry surveys landed this summer, and they disagree in useful ways. Mike Sando’s annual tiers at The Athletic polled 50 coaches and executives on 35 veteran quarterbacks; ESPN separately surveyed more than 70 execs, coaches and scouts for a straight top 10.

Sando’s Tier 1 is four deep: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow. ESPN’s poll has Allen first and Mahomes second, with Stafford third — the two surveys agree almost entirely on who the elite are, and both moved Stafford up on the strength of his MVP season.

Tier 2 ballooned to 13, the largest in the survey’s history, and the ordering is where the interesting arguments live: Lamar Jackson (5), Justin Herbert (6), Dak Prescott (7), Drake Maye (8A), Jared Goff (8B), Jordan Love (10), Brock Purdy (11A), Caleb Williams (11B), Jayden Daniels (13), Baker Mayfield (14A), Sam Darnold (14B), Trevor Lawrence (16), Jalen Hurts (17). The lettered pairs are ties in Sando’s voting — Maye and Goff are jointly eighth and ninth, which is why the next name is 10th.

One caveat before anyone uses these as rankings: this is a perception survey, not a measurement. It tells you what evaluators believe, which is genuinely useful — those are the people who set trade markets and build game plans — but a coach’s ballot is not a metric.

With that said, three placements are worth flagging. Herbert at 6 is the highest any survey has put him. Hurts at 17, last in Tier 2 behind Darnold and Mayfield, tells you league evaluators remain dramatically less convinced by him than his team’s accomplishments would suggest — a gap that has persisted through a Super Bowl. And Nix at 18 says the league credits Denver’s 14 wins mostly to the roster around him — a reading the numbers both support and complicate, which we get into in the Broncos section. Our counter on Hurts is in the Eagles section below; the survey is worth reporting, not worth adopting.

Below the veterans: Jaxson Dart debuts at the top of Tier 3, Tua Tagovailoa fell to 26, Deshaun Watson sits 31st with brutal commentary attached, Michael Penix Jr. is 32nd, and J.J. McCarthy is 34th, with one voter offering that football looks hard for him.

Win Totals: Our Over/Under Call on All 32

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

Fifteen overs, seventeen unders, summing to 272 wins — so the standings that follow are internally consistent.

Five Teams Projected to Regress

1. Denver Broncos (14 wins → 10). Denver went 11-2 in one-score games last season and posted an NFL-record 12 comeback wins. That is not a repeatable baseline — but it’s also not luck alone, and the article’s earlier framing overstated it. Nix finished fourth in the NFL in red-zone QBR (82.6) and led the league outright in winning drives with seven. Payton’s teams are built to not take sacks, and Nix was sacked the ninth-fewest times among starters despite leading the league in both attempts (612) and dropbacks (667). Give them credit for the skill and still expect the record to come down. The Broncos remain excellent — a Bo Nix ankle fracture in the divisional round probably cost them a Super Bowl trip — but the close-game ledger evens out, and five of their first six opponents made the 2025 playoffs.

2. New England Patriots (14 → 10). New England rode one of the league’s softest schedules to Super Bowl LX and lost a long list of contributors: Stefon Diggs, Garrett Bradbury, K’Lavon Chaisson, Jahlani Tavai, Anfernee Jennings. Drake Maye is a legitimate top-five quarterback and A.J. Brown is a real addition — Clay still grades this the No. 4 roster in football. Ten wins and a wild-card berth is a good season here, and we’re less certain than most that Maye is ready to be the reason a team wins rather than a quarterback you can win with.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (13 → 9). The Jaguars didn’t lose from Week 11 through Week 18, and there’s a turnover-luck component to that nobody should ignore. They lost Travis Etienne and All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd, had no cap space and no draft capital after the Travis Hunter trade, and spent their only premium pick on a rotational blocking tight end. Trevor Lawrence’s surge was real; the roster around him is worse.

4. Chicago Bears (11 → 8). The reigning NFC North champions forced a league-leading 33 turnovers, which masked a defense that was ordinary down to down. Then came the third-hardest schedule by Sharp’s model, Drew Dalman’s surprise retirement, the DJ Moore trade to Buffalo, a groin injury costing Luther Burden III the preseason, and injuries to offseason signing Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon in the secondary. We still believe in Ben Johnson. We don’t believe in this number.

5. Seattle Seahawks (14 → 11). Regression, not decline. Klint Kubiak left for Las Vegas, Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City, Zach Charbonnet is working back from a torn ACL, and Nick Emmanwori opened camp on PUP. ESPN’s FPI cut Seattle’s defensive rating from 4.6 points per game to 2.1 on the general principle that elite defenses don’t stay elite. Note that John Schneider spent a first-round pick on Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price to address the backfield. Eleven wins and a deep January is still the likeliest outcome.

Five Teams That Look Improved

1. Baltimore Ravens (8 → 11). No returning player changes his team’s baseline more than a healthy Lamar Jackson. Trey Hendrickson is the most impactful edge addition any contender made, and Nnamdi Madubuike is back after neck surgery cost him nearly all of 2025. The schedule is fifth-easiest. Clay grades this the second-best roster in football.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (6 → 10). Kansas City went 1-9 in one-score games and lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in December. He was cleared to practice fully at the start of camp. Kenneth Walker III gives Andy Reid and returning coordinator Eric Bieniemy the early-down run game they haven’t had in three years. The rebuilt secondary leaning on rookie Mansoor Delane is the real worry.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (6 → 10). Joe Burrow has compared this roster to his 2019 LSU team, which is a lot, but Cincinnati finally invested on defense: the No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence, plus Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger. Clay projects 10.7 wins and the No. 3 offense with the second-easiest schedule, and we’ve landed essentially on the number. The defense doesn’t have to be good — it has to be average, which it has not been since 2022.

4. Los Angeles Chargers (11 → 11, but far better). Alt and Slater are healthy, McDaniel is calling plays, and the skill group — Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, Oronde Gadsden II, David Njoku, Charlie Kolar, with Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell behind Hampton — is the deepest of the Herbert era.

5. Tennessee Titans (3 → 6). Six wins isn’t a playoff team, but Robert Saleh with Gus Bradley on defense and Brian Daboll on offense is the most credible staff Tennessee has assembled in a decade. The front office added as many as six new defensive starters, and Carnell Tate at No. 4 overall finally gives Cam Ward a downfield weapon alongside Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley.

Top 8 Projected Offensive Lines

Our eight and Clay’s eight are the same eight teams, which is unusual and probably meaningful. Denver stands alone at the top with an 8 grade; the other seven all grade out at 7.

1. Denver Broncos — PFF’s No. 1 unit for a second straight year, with All-Pro guard Quinn Meinerz inside and Garett Bolles still holding up at left tackle. The foundation of everything Sean Payton does.
2. Philadelphia Eagles — All five starters return, including Lane Johnson, who has graded above 80.0 as a pass blocker for six consecutive seasons, and Jordan Mailata. Losing longtime line coach Jeff Stoutland to retirement is the wild card.
3. Los Angeles Rams — Arguably the best-performing line in football last year: second in pressure rate allowed, first in adjusted line yards, second-lowest stuff rate. Alaric Jackson’s availability is the question.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Tristan Wirfs earned a career-high 92.7 grade in 2025, and Luke Goedeke allowed neither a sack nor a hit across 416 pass-blocking snaps.
5. Buffalo Bills — Fourth in pressure rate, second in time to pressure, second in adjusted line yards, three years of continuity. Losing David Edwards costs them a spot.
6. San Francisco 49ers — Trent Williams turns 38 and posted his sixth straight 85-plus grade. San Francisco allowed the third-lowest pressure rate in football and added real depth behind the starters.
7. Los Angeles Chargers — Elite at tackle with Alt and Slater healthy, unproven on the interior with Cole Strange and rookie Jake Slaughter. The distance between those two facts is the Chargers’ season.
8. Chicago Bears — Joe Thuney grades a 9, Darnell Wright an 8. Dalman’s retirement drops them from top-three to here.

Just missed: Detroit, which added Cade Mays specifically to fix its interior and will now be without him for 8-10 weeks with a wrist injury, and Indianapolis, where Quenton Nelson and Bernhard Raimann anchor a group some outlets have inside their top five.

Top 8 Projected Defensive Lines

Clay grades interior and edge separately. Baltimore, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia lead the interior at 7; Pittsburgh and the Giants lead the edge at 8, with Houston and the Rams at 7. Combining both:

1. Los Angeles Rams — Myles Garrett won his second Defensive Player of the Year award and set the single-season sack record with 23 last year in Cleveland. He joins Kobie Turner, Poona Ford and Braden Fiske, with Byron Young opposite. Clay projects Garrett for 12.6 sacks. Aaron Donald has already worked out for the team.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers — The best pure pass-rush collection in football: T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, plus Cameron Heyward (a 9 grade at 37) and Derrick Harmon. Older than the rest of this tier and it hasn’t stopped mattering yet.
3. Philadelphia Eagles — A healthy Jalen Carter with Jordan Davis and Moro Ojomo may be the best interior trio in football, with Jalyx Hunt behind Jonathan Greenard. Greenard’s pec strain is the near-term concern.
4. Baltimore Ravens — Clay’s top-graded interior in the NFL: Madubuike and Travis Jones both grade 8, Calais Campbell a 7 in his 19th season. Hendrickson grades 8 on the edge. The questions are Madubuike’s health after neck surgery and whether Mike Green, coming off 3.5 rookie sacks, becomes the second rusher.
5. Seattle Seahawks — Leonard Williams grades a 9, Byron Murphy II a 7, Jarran Reed a 7. DeMarcus Lawrence still sets an edge. Losing Boye Mafe stings.
6. Houston Texans — Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. both grade 8, with Jadeveon Clowney at 6 as the third rusher. The backbone of Clay’s No. 2 defense.
7. New York Giants — Brian Burns (8), Abdul Carter (7) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (6) is the second-best edge room in football. The interior, after the Dexter Lawrence trade, is not.
8. Cincinnati Bengals — Lawrence grades a 9, B.J. Hill a 7, Jonathan Allen a 5, with Mafe added outside. The most aggressive front-line rebuild any team attempted.

Top 10 Coaching Staffs (Not Just Head Coaches)

CBS Sports polled twelve of its writers on the league’s best offensive and defensive play-callers, and the results reshaped this list. Only four teams placed a coordinator in the top ten on both sides: the Rams, Chiefs, Jaguars and Vikings. We’ve weighted that heavily, because a staff is a pair of units, not just a Head Coach.

1. Los Angeles Rams — McVay was the near-unanimous top offensive play-caller (105 points, never ranked lower than third) and Chris Shula finished seventh on defense, appearing on all but one ballot. The Rams ran 13 personnel on 30.5% of snaps last season, more than double the second-place Steelers.
2. Kansas City Chiefs — The best combined pair in football on the voting: Reid fourth on offense, Spagnuolo second on defense. Even in a six-win season Spagnuolo’s unit finished 10th in total defense and sixth in scoring. Bieniemy’s return replaces Matt Nagy, whose second Kansas City stint coincided with the offensive decline.
3. Seattle Seahawks — Macdonald was the unanimous No. 1 defensive play-caller, the only coach in either poll to appear first on every ballot. The lone reason Seattle isn’t higher is that Brian Fleury drew no votes and has never called plays.
4. Los Angeles Chargers — McDaniel was the only non-head-coach to make the offensive top ten, at fifth. Harbaugh’s .679 career win percentage does the rest; Chris O’Leary inherits the defense Minter built.
5. Philadelphia Eagles — Fangio placed fourth on defense, and his units have finished first and fifth in the relevant categories in his two Philadelphia seasons. Sean Mannion is the unknown.
6. San Francisco 49ers — Shanahan finished second on offense, and nobody has scheme-created more open receivers over the last decade. Raheem Morris drew votes on defense.
7. Denver Broncos — Vance Joseph placed eighth on defense after a unit that led the NFL with 68 sacks, eleven more than any other team and four short of the 1984 Bears’ record. Payton handing play-calling to Davis Webb is either smart delegation or the year’s biggest unforced error.
8. Houston Texans — Matt Burke took over play-calling early last season and Houston finished first in total defense and second in scoring. He placed tenth. Nick Caley’s offense is the open question.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars — One of the four staffs with both coordinators ranked: Coen seventh on offense, Campanile ninth on defense after a debut year with the Jaguars eighth in scoring defense and second in takeaways.
10. Chicago Bears — Ben Johnson finished third on offense and got a first-place vote. Chicago graded fifth in both PFF pass blocking and run blocking last year, which is the tell on his line schemes. Dennis Allen’s defense is the swing.

Just missed: Minnesota, the fourth team with both coordinators ranked (O’Connell eighth, Flores fifth after a defense that led the league in pressure rate); Green Bay, where LaFleur placed ninth on offense; and Detroit, where neither Drew Petzing nor Kelvin Sheppard drew a vote.

And a note on Baltimore, since this is a Ravens site and the temptation is obvious: we left them off. Jesse Minter has never been a head coach, Declan Doyle is 30 and has never called an NFL offense, and the two of them have never coached a game together. The pieces are genuinely intriguing, and one of them is better than intriguing: Minter finished third among all defensive play-callers in the CBS poll, behind only Macdonald and Spagnuolo and ahead of Fangio and Flores, on the strength of disciplined units and excellent secondary play under Jim Harbaugh. That is a real endorsement. But Doyle received no votes and has never called an NFL offense, and half a staff isn’t a staff. This group could be top-five by December. It hasn’t earned the ranking yet. 

Projected Finishes by Division

AFC East

1. Bills 12-5 | 2. Patriots 10-7 | 3. Jets 5-12 | 4. Dolphins 4-13

Buffalo. Joe Brady inherits a perennial contender, Clay’s No. 2 offense, a top-five offensive line, and a new stadium. The pass-catching group is genuinely good now — DJ Moore arriving from Chicago alongside Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox at tight end — and James Cook, the reigning rushing champion, plus Ray Davis is a strong backfield. Buffalo finished first in the NFL in rushing offense by EPA last season and 31st in rushing defense — the widest split of any contender, and the reason the McDermott firing followed a four-turnover divisional-round loss in Denver. Strength: Allen, both lines, and a division that is functionally a head start. Weakness: edge depth behind Gregory Rousseau and Bradley Chubb is thin, and Clay grades the linebacker corps a 3, the lowest mark of any contender at any position. The question: how does this defense adjust to Jim Leonhard’s scheme? Nineteen different defensive play-callers drew a vote in CBS’s poll — the widest spread of any category they surveyed — and Leonhard finished with exactly one point, from a single tenth-place ballot. Buffalo is our AFC favorite, and the case against them rests almost entirely on that answer.

New England. The A.J. Brown trade genuinely upgraded a skill group that was underwhelming a year ago, and Rhamondre Stevenson with TreVeyon Henderson is a complementary backfield worth watching. Alijah Vera-Tucker, first-round tackle Caleb Lomu and Jared Wilson moving back to his natural spot at center should make life easier up front. Strength: a secondary where Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Craig Woodson and Kevin Byard all grade 8. Weakness: heavy defensive attrition and an offseason dominated by Mike Vrabel’s off-field problems. The question: Maye finished second in MVP voting — is that who he is, or did everything around him go right at once? He’s clearly good enough to win with; we’re not yet convinced he’s the reason a team wins, which is why we’re below the market here. In fairness to the other side: Maye led the entire NFL in both EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expectation last season, and his +10.8 CPOE wasn’t close to anyone else’s. The case against him is the postseason, where New England’s offense was overmatched by a run of elite defenses.

New York Jets. The most interesting bad team in football. New York did not record a single interception in 2025 — an almost impossible statistic — and finished 32nd in passing defense by EPA per dropback, and responded by rebuilding most of the defensive starting lineup, with Aaron Glenn taking over play-calling himself. Clay now grades the Jets’ linebackers eighth-best in the league and their defense 10th, with Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety and T’Vondre Sweat, Harrison Phillips and David Onyemata inside. Strength: the front seven, plus a draft class of David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr. and D’Angelo Ponds. Weakness: Smith threw a league-high 17 interceptions last season and finished 34th in EPA per dropback; Clay projects 14 more picks. The question: can this defense drag a 7-win roster into relevance?

Miami. This was a 7-10 team a year ago. Then Tyreek Hill was cut, Tua Tagovailoa and Minkah Fitzpatrick were moved out, and Jaylen Waddle and Bradley Chubb were traded. Clay now projects 2.4 wins — the lowest number in the guide — with the 32nd-ranked offense, 32nd-ranked defense, and roughly $180 million in dead cap. Strength: De’Von Achane, Zach Sieler and Jordyn Brooks are legitimate players. Weakness: a receiving corps with no threat above a 3 grade, and the second-hardest schedule. The question: how does Miami even evaluate Malik Willis with these weapons?

AFC North

1. Ravens 11-6 | 2. Bengals 10-7 | 3. Steelers 8-9 | 4. Browns 5-12

For the first time since 2021, the AFC North champion won with just 10 wins, and it took a Week 18 classic in Pittsburgh to settle it. Three of the four teams have new Head Coaches. The division needs to be better than it was.

Baltimore. Eighteen years of John Harbaugh ended in January, and Jesse Minter walks into as much pressure as any first-year coach in the league. He inherits a two-time MVP, Clay’s second-best roster, the fifth-easiest schedule, and a mandate that isn’t “make the playoffs” but “win in them.”

The strengths are enormous and specific, and last year’s EPA splits describe the team precisely: Baltimore finished first in rushing offense and third in rushing defense, and 21st in passing offense and 18th in passing defense. Clay’s model projects them to lead the NFL in both rushing attempts and rushing yards while ranking dead last in pass attempts — a run-first bully team by design, with Derrick Henry projected for 1,482 yards and 13 touchdowns at 32. Kyle Hamilton grades a 9, and the safety group is the best-graded unit at any position on any roster in the league. Madubuike, Travis Jones and Campbell give Minter the interior he needs, and Hendrickson gives him the edge rusher the last two Ravens teams lacked. Clay has the defense fourth overall and second in sacks.

The soft spots are equally specific: receiver and tight end both grade 5. Zay Flowers just got $35 million a year and needs to prove he’s a true No. 1 rather than an excellent No. 2, and behind him it’s a rehabilitating Rashod Bateman, a 31-year-old Mark Andrews coming off a quiet year, and a draft class asked to contribute immediately — Ja’Kobi Lane in the third round, Elijah Sarratt in the fourth, Matthew Hibner in the fourth, Josh Cuevas in the fifth. Here is the cleanest way to state the problem: exactly three players on this roster have ever caught more than ten passes from Lamar Jackson. Flowers, Bateman and Andrews. That’s it. The interior offensive line is a projection: Ethan Pocic replacing Tyler Linderbaum while returning from a torn Achilles, John Simpson at left guard, rookie Vega Ioane at right guard. Marlon Humphrey has to bounce back at 30. And Madubuike’s neck surgery means nobody really knows what this defense is until October. The question: how much of the last two seasons was actually coaching?

The Lamar question nobody in Baltimore wants to ask. Start with the disagreement: The Ringer’s Diante Lee ranked Jackson the third-best quarterback in football this offseason, ahead of Herbert, Maye, Prescott and Burrow. That is the high end of his range, and it’s a real evaluation. But three other measures docked him this summer, and they all point at the same thing. Before doing that, note what actually happened: Jackson opened 2025 completing better than 70 percent of his throws at 9.1 yards per attempt with a 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, then hurt his hamstring. After he returned he was visibly slower, scrambled less, held the ball longer and stopped pushing it downfield. Steven Ruiz’s read at The Ringer was that Jackson’s decision-making itself appeared to be a function of his health. He slid 67 spots to No. 69 on the players’ Top 100. He dropped out of Sando’s Tier 1 back to the top of Tier 2 after making his Tier 1 debut a year ago. And the stated reason wasn’t the missed games — it was that his rushing yards per game fell by roughly half year over year. One opposing coach told Sando “I’m not sure how much he wants to run and take hits anymore,” adding that Jackson can’t be special without the threat of the run.

Jackson has spent three years becoming a better pocket passer specifically so he doesn’t have to absorb that punishment, and at 29, protecting his body is rational — he’s now been limited to 13 games or fewer in three of five seasons. But Clay’s model projects him for 671 rushing yards on 122 carries, which would be a meaningful bounce-back, and it projects Baltimore to lead the NFL in rushing attempts and rushing yards. Declan Doyle’s first real job is finding ways to make Jackson a run threat without making him a target.

And here’s the case nobody is making loudly enough. The knock on Baltimore is a rookie head coach and a 30-year-old first-time play-caller. But Jackson has won MVP in the first season of each of his last two new offensive coordinators — unanimously under Greg Roman in 2019, the second unanimous winner in league history, and again under Todd Monken in 2023. Twenty-two teams have a new offensive coordinator this year. There is no quarterback in football with a better track record of absorbing one.

The schematic details are more interesting than the personnel questions. Doyle has Jackson taking more snaps under center than in any previous camp, and Jackson expects that to carry into the season. He has been under center for five percent of his career snaps; since 2018 his 226 under-center snaps are the second fewest of any quarterback with 50 starts, behind Kyler Murray. And over those same eight seasons, Jackson has posted the highest QBR in the NFL from under center — 81.2, with 20 touchdowns and one interception. It’s the least-used and most productive part of his game. Doyle is also drilling cadence, which is a strange thing to have to fix and an obvious place to find yards: since 2019 Baltimore has drawn defenses offside 33 times, fewer than every team but New Orleans and New England, and Jackson has exactly one career completion on a free play. The transition isn’t seamless — the offense false-started eight times in a single August practice varying its cadences, and Jackson spiked his helmet after a two-minute drill ran out of clock — but the direction is clear, and Jackson attended the voluntary spring work to get a head start on it.

Cincinnati. Burrow missed nine games and the defense still couldn’t get out of its own way. The Dexter Lawrence trade is the swing this franchise needed, with second-rounder Cashius Howell arriving to push Myles Murphy for snaps opposite Boye Mafe. Strength: Clay’s No. 3 offense — Burrow, one of only four quarterbacks voted into Sando’s Tier 1, plus Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — and the second-easiest schedule. Weakness: a linebacker room grading 4, a defense Clay still ranks 25th, and an offensive line with real questions inside. The question: how good is Amarius Mims in Year 3? If he’s a legitimate starting tackle, the bookends are set and the interior becomes solvable. Worth noting on that front: Cincinnati’s line actually allowed the third-lowest pressure rate in football last season, and Burrow’s own reluctance to give up on plays is part of why the sack and hit totals stay high. He also posted the league’s lowest off-target throw rate. And while everyone spends August discussing Lamar Jackson’s missed time, Burrow has missed a comparable amount over the same stretch — that’s the quieter version of the same problem.

Pittsburgh. The defending division champions. Mike Tomlin never had a losing season in 20 years; Mike McCarthy inherits the streak. Rodgers returns for a 22nd season and turns 43 in December, and the arm is still there — but the ability to escape and extend is not. Expect defenses to crowd the line and dare him to get the ball out immediately, over and over. The tape already says they will: in 2025 Rodgers posted both the lowest average time to throw and the lowest average depth of target in the NFL, and he has essentially stopped working the middle of the field. He finished 23rd in EPA per dropback and 33rd in success rate. Around him is a real supporting cast: Michael Pittman Jr. and Rico Dowdle join DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth, with first-round tackle Max Iheanachor added up front. Strength: Clay’s No. 3 defense, headlined by the league’s best edge group and a secondary with Jalen Ramsey, Joey Porter Jr., Jamel Dean, Jaquan Brisker and Darnell Savage. Weakness: Clay ranks the offense 26th. The question: can Rodgers be a middle-of-the-pack starter? If so, this is a division threat, not a third-place team — and that’s the single biggest swing in the AFC North.

Cleveland. Todd Monken finally landed a top job — a hire that drove respected DC Jim Schwartz out of the building — and inherits a four-way quarterback competition between Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel and rookie Taylen Green. Strength: Cleveland finished first in the NFL in passing defense by EPA per dropback last season, and the 2025 draft class delivered Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger plus Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr., with Jared Verse arriving in the Garrett trade as a cost-controlled young edge who fits the timeline. Weakness: the offense finished 32nd in that same metric — dead last, and not close — which is what Clay’s 31st-ranked projection is built on, alongside a presumptive starter in Watson who ranked 31st of 35 in the tiers with some of the harshest commentary in the survey. The question: is this a competition or an audition for the 2027 draft?

AFC South

1. Texans 11-6 | 2. Jaguars 9-8 | 3. Colts 7-10 | 4. Titans 6-11

Houston. After an 0-3 start, Houston won 12 of 14 including a nine-game closing streak before losing to New England in the divisional round. The offseason went entirely into the offense: Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller signed, David Montgomery acquired from Detroit, Keylan Rutledge drafted. Woody Marks is usable but he isn’t Jahmyr Gibbs, which means Montgomery should see more touches here than he did in his last couple of years in Detroit. Strength: a defense that finished first in total defense and second in scoring after Ryans handed play-calling to Matt Burke early last season, with a corner group grading 8 — Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre. Weakness: Clay ranks the offense 22nd, and Stroud’s 2023 turnover avoidance looks more like an outlier every year. The question: from October on, Stroud ranked seventh in EPA per dropback behind a bad line and no run game, then had a disastrous playoff run. Analysts loved his rookie season; entering 2026 he has a long list of detractors. If he’s average, Houston probably wins the South. If he’s a top-third quarterback, Houston can win the AFC. Montgomery giving this offense a consistent play-action game is the likeliest bridge between those outcomes.

Jacksonville. The popular sleeper of the summer, on the strength of how they closed 2025 — unbeaten from Week 11 through Week 18 — and of a roster people keep describing in terms of collective team speed. GM James Gladstone was content to run it back. Strength: Coen’s scheme, a defense that ranked first in EPA per play from Week 11 on, and Joshua Hines-Allen grading a 9. Weakness: everyone says running backs are replaceable, and we still didn’t like losing Travis Etienne; Devin Lloyd is gone too, and there was no cap space or draft capital to replace either. The question: it comes down to how you evaluate Trevor Lawrence. From November on he ranked fourth in the NFL in total EPA and success rate and drew MVP votes, with the midseason Jakobi Meyers trade a real catalyst — though he still finished 27th in completion percentage over expectation on the full season. If you believe better coaching has turned the corner, be optimistic. Secondary questions: does Brian Thomas Jr. rebound, and what does Travon Walker actually give this defense?

Indianapolis. The Colts were the most explosive offense in football through two months, then Daniel Jones got hurt, the season collapsed, and they were reduced to unretiring Philip Rivers. Jones was legitimately good in the first half of last season, and the play-action game built off Jonathan Taylor — newly paid at two years, $44 million, and grading a 9 — is the foundation. Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs won’t frighten anyone, but it’s a usable group. Strength: an offensive line with Quenton Nelson and Bernhard Raimann, plus DeForest Buckner. Weakness: Clay grades the linebackers 3, and the receiving room thinned when Pittman went to Pittsburgh. The question: there’s a clear path to this defense being better than last year, and it starts with availability — several projected starters missed significant time, none more important than 2025 trade acquisition Sauce Gardner.

Tennessee. New coach, new coordinators, new uniforms harking back to the Oilers. Saleh builds dominant defenses; Daboll got one great year out of Josh Allen and one good year out of Daniel Jones. Strength: a front anchored by Jeffery Simmons, who grades a 9 and projects for a league-leading 9.3 sacks among interior linemen. Weakness: Clay’s 29th offense and 28th defense — the roster is still two drafts away. The question: Ward finished 33rd of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, success rate and yards per dropback — and improved in all three over the back half of the season while nearly halving his sack rate after Brian Callahan was fired. How much of that carries into Year 2 with a real No. 1 receiver and simplified reads?

AFC West

1. Chargers 10-7 | 2. Broncos 10-7 | 3. Chiefs 10-7 | 4. Raiders 6-11

Three teams projected at 10-7, and only two of them get in. It’s the tightest division in football and the one most likely to embarrass us.

Los Angeles. Eleven wins without both All-Pro tackles for most of the year. Now they’re back, and McDaniel is calling plays. Losing Minter to Baltimore should matter, and as Ravens fans we’d like to think it will — but Harbaugh has always found a path, and he always builds physical teams. First-round pick Akheem Mesidor was a good add to a front where Tuli Tuipulotu’s 13 sacks last season have gone strangely unnoticed; the open question is what Khalil Mack has left after 17 sacks in 2023 and 11.5 combined since. The Chargers ranked 23rd in passing offense by EPA per dropback last season, which is the whole explanation for the McDaniel hire — though the context matters. Herbert took 54 sacks behind the league’s highest pressure rate, playing through a broken hand that required midseason surgery, in front of a line that shuffled through nearly three dozen starting combinations. He responded by setting a career high in scramble rate and averaging nine yards per dropback outside of structure. Strength: Herbert, who checked in sixth in Sando’s tiers and fourth on The Ringer’s board, ran for 498 yards last year — also underdiscussed — and behind two returning All-Pro tackles has the deepest skill group of his era, with Derwin James anchoring the back end. Weakness: the interior offensive line, and two models that read the schedule very differently — Sharp has it middle-of-the-pack (20th-easiest), Clay the fourth-hardest in football. The question: does Tre Harris take a step? If he does, this receiver room is a problem for people. And for what it’s worth: contracts and age aside, if we were building a team to win one season, we’d take Herbert over Maye.

Denver. Denver has gone 25-11 with Nix starting, made the playoffs in both his seasons after missing eight straight, and returns 20 of 22 starters from an AFC Championship Game roster. Since drafting him 12th overall they’ve committed more than $300 million in guarantees to the players around him — Zach Allen, Quinn Meinerz, Nik Bonitto, Courtland Sutton, Pat Surtain II, Garett Bolles — and sent first-, third- and fourth-round picks to Miami for Jaylen Waddle. J.K. Dobbins had injury trouble again but was productive when available, and whether RJ Harvey’s 3.7 yards per carry climbs in Year 2 matters. Strength: the best offensive line in football, Bonitto coming off a 14-sack season, and a unit that led the NFL with 68 sacks — eleven clear of the field and four short of the 1984 Bears’ record.

The honest case on Nix runs both ways, and it’s more interesting than his tier placement. He’s the third quarterback in league history with 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, after Peyton Manning and Justin Herbert, and he leads all six first-round quarterbacks from the 2024 class in wins, passing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns and total touchdowns — ahead of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. He was also, in Ruiz’s reading, one of the NFL’s best fourth-quarter quarterbacks and mediocre outside of it, finishing 30th in success rate. He finished 26th in completion percentage over expectation at minus-2.1%, completed 44.1% of throws travelling 10-plus air yards and 36.1% of throws travelling 20-plus, and attempted only 40 passes between the hashmarks all season against 234 outside the numbers. Opposing coordinators have noticed, and they’ll keep making him look at the middle of the field. First-year coordinator Davis Webb spent the offseason working on getting him off his first read faster.

Weakness: the ankle. Nix has fractured one in high school, college and the NFL, and has had three surgeries in two Denver seasons including an April cleanup for bone spurs. The question: is Waddle the missing piece? There’s a contract underneath all of this — Nix carries a $5.076 million cap charge, the 19th-highest on his own team, and the top twelve quarterbacks now average north of $51 million a year. A big season makes that a nine-figure guarantee. A flat one probably means Denver picks up the fifth-year option and waits.

Kansas City. Six wins, 1-9 in one-score games, a torn ACL. Mahomes was cleared to practice fully when camp opened. This offense may never be explosive again, but it will remain productive as long as he’s available — and adding Kenneth Walker III gives them a downhill thumper and, with it, a real play-action game. Two first-round picks and a second went into the defense, which is the kind of investment that tends to show up gradually; Spagnuolo’s units almost always look better in December than September. Strength: Mahomes, Reid, Creed Humphrey (a 9), Chris Jones, and genuine speed at receiver. Weakness: a rebuilt secondary leaning on rookie Mansoor Delane, and Xavier Worthy nursing another shoulder issue. The question: even if he stays available, what does Mahomes look like scrambling on a repaired knee — and does he start getting the ball out quicker?

Las Vegas. Klint Kubiak asked for a veteran quarterback so he wouldn’t have to throw the No. 1 overall pick into the fire, and got Kirk Cousins. Tyler Linderbaum fixes the center spot; Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker rebuild the linebacker room. Strength: Maxx Crosby (a 9, projected for 10.9 sacks), Brock Bowers (a 9), Ashton Jeanty. Weakness: no receiver above a 5 grade. The question: how long can they justify keeping Mendoza on the bench?

NFC East

1. Eagles 10-7 | 2. Cowboys 9-8 | 3. Commanders 7-10 | 4. Giants 6-11

Philadelphia. Eleven wins, a division title, a wild-card exit against San Francisco, and negative vibes throughout. A.J. Brown is gone, Dontayvion Wicks and Riq Woolen arrive, Sean Mannion installs the Shanahan-McVay system after Kevin Patullo was fired, and Fangio still runs the defense. Dallas Goedert is coming off an 11-touchdown season, and we liked the Eli Stowers pick in the second round behind him. Strength: All-Pros in the secondary with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis up front — that’s the start of any good defense — plus Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun both grading 9. Weakness: an unsettled receiver room, and a safety group grading 3. The question: does Makai Lemon produce right away, and does Barkley bounce back from 4.1 yards per carry after 5.8 the year before? On Hurts: the scrutiny has gotten excessive. Finishing second in MVP voting in 2022 was hyperbole, and so is the criticism now. He’s been to two Super Bowls, won one, was its MVP, and has three Pro Bowls. You can fixate on the flaws or appreciate what he is. Ruiz’s film read lands in the same place: the efficiency decline in 2025 traced to a bad scheme rather than any regression in Hurts’s skill set, and Patullo lost his job over it. Our guess is he remains good enough.

Dallas. The Cowboys had the league’s second-best offense — two 1,000-yard receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the NFL’s third-rated passer in Dak Prescott, and a quietly very productive year from Javonte Williams — and finished 7-9-1 because they couldn’t stop anybody — 31st in passing defense and 30th in rushing defense by EPA. So they threw the kitchen sink at the defense: Rashan Gary, Dee Winters, Otito Ogbonnia, Jalen Thompson and Cobie Durant via free agency and trade, first-round picks on Caleb Downs and edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, and Christian Parker hired from Philadelphia to coordinate. The run defense in particular looks improved. Strength: Clay’s No. 6 offense — if Dallas can block, this unit puts up points. Weakness: they’ll still likely have to scheme pressure rather than generate it, and the schedule is fifth-hardest. The question: can this defense be merely average? If it is, Dallas is a playoff team.

Washington. In 2024 they reached the NFC Championship Game and everyone was in love with Jayden Daniels. In 2025 they slipped to 5-12 and nobody believes in them. Dan Quinn overhauled both coordinator spots — David Blough on offense, Daronte Jones on defense — and there’s a heavy Maryland flavor to the additions: former Terps Stefon Diggs and Chigoziem Okonkwo should both help immediately, and Nick Cross joins the secondary. Former Raven Odafe Oweh gets a chance to build on what he did in Los Angeles. We loved the Sonny Styles selection. Strength: Daniels grades a 7 and is an MVP-caliber player when upright. Weakness: Laremy Tunsil tore a triceps and is likely to miss a significant portion of the season, and Washington finished dead last in the NFL in yards allowed. The question: can Daniels stay on the field? If he does, he can probably drag this roster to .500.

New York. John Harbaugh’s second act should at minimum be more organized, and paired with a manageable schedule there’s a version of this that surprises people. Under new coordinator Dennard Wilson, the front seven pairs Brian Burns and Abdul Carter with Kayvon Thibodeaux, rookie Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds — Clay’s second-best edge group. Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard followed Harbaugh from Baltimore and should both be productive, and Odell Beckham Jr. is back in a Giants uniform. Strength: real defensive talent, plus Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart, who debuted atop Tier 3. Weakness: Dart has obvious talent and a playing style that doesn’t inspire confidence about his availability; Malik Nabers isn’t practicing fully; the interior line thinned after the Lawrence trade. The question: probably too many unknowns to project a leap — but if Dart, Nabers and Skattebo are mostly available, this becomes a team nobody enjoys facing in the second half of the season.

NFC North

1. Lions 11-6 | 2. Packers 10-7 | 3. Bears 8-9 | 4. Vikings 8-9

The best division in football by most accounts, and the one where all four teams have a credible argument.

Detroit. Nine-and-eight and tied for last in the division a year ago, and now the easiest schedule in football by both models — which is why Clay projects 12 wins and the NFL’s second-best record. The Lions added to both lines in the draft, and this offense remains formidable, especially at home on the turf. Goff keeps posting gaudy numbers; he’s another quarterback who isn’t elite and is unquestionably good enough to win with. Strength: Amon-Ra St. Brown (9), Aidan Hutchinson (9), Jack Campbell (9), Penei Sewell (8) moving to left tackle, Sam LaPorta (8). Weakness: Cade Mays out 8-10 weeks, Terrion Arnold gone, both starting safeties opening camp on PUP — Sharp dropped Detroit three spots on the secondary alone. The questions: Gibbs no longer has David Montgomery to share the load, so does Isiah Pacheco — who hasn’t looked right in two years — revert to anything like his 2023 form? And what do D.J. Wonnum and Derrick Moore actually give Detroit opposite Hutchinson?

Green Bay. The Packers were 9-3-1 on December 7 and top-five in several defensive categories. Then Micah Parsons tore his ACL, they lost four straight, and they blew a 21-3 lead to Chicago in the wild card. We like this team, starting with Jordan Love, who has enormous ability; a healthy Tucker Kraft is a top-tier tight end, and Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden all have talent and all have questions. It falls to Love to elevate that group. Strength: Parsons and Xavier McKinney both grade 9; Zach Tom grades 8. Weakness: Josh Jacobs’ unresolved legal situation sours the outlook, and the contingency is MarShawn Lloyd — the former DeMatha standout who had six carries in 2024 and missed 2025 entirely. The question: Parsons is eyeing a Week 6 return. How good is this defense without him, how long does the rust last, and does he get back to his prior peak in 2026?

Chicago. The defending division champion, and Year 3 for Caleb Williams is bringing a lot of hype. To his credit he made marked improvement from Year 1 to Year 2, and Ben Johnson fixed the sack problem in a single offseason. Feeding D’Andre Swift, who averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season, would only help him further. Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III are a solid duo, and Colston Loveland’s emergence as a rookie first-rounder is a big reason Cole Kmet fell from 73 catches in 2023 to 30 last year. It’s still a good group — just not as deep without DJ Moore, and third-rounder Zavion Thomas has to be integrated. Strength: an offensive line grading 7, with Joe Thuney at 9. Weakness: Chicago brought in multiple options at left tackle without an obvious answer, Burden misses the preseason with a groin injury, Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon are hurt, and Sharp ranks the schedule third-hardest. The questions: Williams completed 58.1 percent of his throws last season — nowhere near Ben Johnson’s stated preseason goal of 70 percent — and ranked 34th in completion percentage over expectation even while setting the franchise single-season passing record and winning Chicago’s first playoff game since 2011. That gap between the highlight throws and the routine ones is the step. Also: that secondary generated a mountain of turnovers in 2025 — is any of that sustainable? They had losses at safety and added first-rounder Dillon Thieneman to replace them. And can Williams take another step?

Minnesota. Kyler Murray won the job outright; J.J. McCarthy’s camp was described by one veteran beat writer as the football yips. Murray has started multiple seasons hot enough to draw MVP chatter by Week 6 and has never sustained it, with the usual explanation being that he wears down over a full year given his size. But the skill talent here is better than anything he’s had. Minnesota spent its first three picks on defense, and Jonathan Greenard’s departure for Philadelphia will be felt. Strength: Justin Jefferson grades a 9, and Brian Flores — whose defense finished third in the NFL in passing EPA allowed while the offense finished 29th — is the best coordinator alive at extracting production from a unit without stars. Weakness: Clay grades the quarterback room a 4. The question: is it crazy to think Murray could approximate what Sam Darnold did here in 2024? And if he doesn’t reach those highs but lands somewhere near average, is that enough in this division?

NFC South

1. Buccaneers 9-8 | 2. Saints 8-9 | 3. Panthers 8-9 | 4. Falcons 6-11

Last year this division produced a three-way tie at 8-9, with Carolina taking the crown on a tiebreaker. It’s the closest race on the board and the division where we’ve changed our mind the most.

Tampa Bay. We’re taking the talent. Baker Mayfield called the club’s reported two-year, $100-million-plus offer disrespectful and will play out his deal — and a healthy Mayfield playing with a chip on his shoulder is not the worst thing that could happen to this offense. Vita Vea has requested a trade and is holding in, Mike Evans left for San Francisco and Lavonte David retired. But Emeka Egbuka is back after drawing 127 targets as a rookie, Wirfs and Goedeke anchor a top-four line, and Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith are one of the best safety duos in football. Zac Robinson arrives from Atlanta as Mayfield’s newest coordinator. Strength: the trenches on both sides. Weakness: the vibes, which are objectively terrible. The questions: Bucky Irving played all 17 games as a rookie in 2024 and averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 207 attempts; last year he was limited to 10 games and 3.4 yards on 173. Which is the real number? And Chris Godwin has played 16 total games across two seasons — this offense looks meaningfully better if he’s available.

New Orleans. The under-the-radar pick that nearly became our division pick. The Saints went 5-4 in games Tyler Shough started and 1-7 otherwise, added Travis Etienne and guard David Edwards, drafted Jordyn Tyson eighth overall, and paid Chris Olave up to $132 million. Kellen Moore is in Year 2 with a defined starter, Brandon Staley runs the defense, and Chase Young is coming off 10 sacks in 12 games. Strength: schedule and trajectory. Weakness: over $112 million in dead cap, no depth in the trenches, and Bryan Bresee lost for the year. The question: Shough had the league’s worst pressure-to-sack ratio and a bottom-ten off-target rate, which is a real ceiling on a quarterback who otherwise showed enough. Is he good enough to make the leap this roster is quietly built for?

Carolina. The defending champs overcame a 1-3 start with a 7-6 finish, then had the best offseason in the division — Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd, Rasheed Walker, first-round tackle Monroe Freeling — and have been bitten harder by the injury bug than any team in football. Nic Scourton and rookie receiver Chris Brazzell are out for the year; Taylor Moton and Ikem Ekwonu are on uncertain timetables. Add the third-hardest schedule and Clay’s 5.9-win projection, and we’re taking the over mostly on Derrick Brown (a 9), Devin Lloyd and Tetairoa McMillan. The question: is last year’s version of Bryce Young the real one — and does it matter given the circumstances?

Atlanta. Raheem Morris and GM Terry Fontenot are gone; Kevin Stefanski, Ian Cunningham and team president Matt Ryan inherit a quarterback position that was largely dreadful in 2025. Nobody believes Tua Tagovailoa gets through a season unscathed, and this is Year 3 for Michael Penix Jr., who still hasn’t been cleared for 11-on-11 work — which is why Atlanta signed Cooper Rush in late July. But neither has to be excellent. Tua’s Miami offenses had real stretches, particularly early in seasons; Penix was the eighth pick two years ago. The film reads are unkind to both. Penix completed 60.1 percent of his throws and ranked 35th in completion percentage over expectation, with Drake London and Kyle Pitts bailing out a lot of high misses, and his knee injury was the third ACL tear of his career. Tagovailoa was among the league’s least productive passers between the numbers from 10 to 25 air yards, with a 1-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio on those throws. Strength: the surrounding talent is legitimately good — Bijan Robinson grades a 9 on a new deal worth nearly $67 million, with Drake London (8), Kyle Pitts (7) and Jahan Dotson, plus Jessie Bates and Xavier Watts on the back end. Weakness: right tackle could be a limiting issue, which matters more than usual given both quarterbacks are left-handed and Jawaan Taylor is protecting the blind side.

We’ve projected 6-11, and it’s worth being explicit about why, because it isn’t a verdict on the roster. Tagovailoa’s medical history is what it is — he has been one significant hit away from the end of his career for two years running — and Penix has his own long injury record on top of a knee that still hasn’t cleared him for 11-on-11 work. There’s a genuine scenario where one of them settles in as something like the 20th-best quarterback in the league, the surrounding talent does the rest, and Atlanta finishes near .500. We just can’t project it. The median outcome for a team whose two options both carry this much availability risk is a season spent cycling through quarterbacks, and that’s what 6-11 represents. The questions: can either one simply be available and avoid turnovers? Does edge rusher James Pearce Jr. miss time behind Jalon Walker, already lost for the year? And can this run defense stop anybody?

NFC West

1. Rams 13-4 | 2. Seahawks 11-6 | 3. 49ers 10-7 | 4. Cardinals 4-13

Los Angeles. The closest thing to a preseason superteam the league has had in years: +550 to win it all, 14.9 percent in ESPN’s FPI, and the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense in Clay’s grades — the only team in the guide to lead both. Stafford is the reigning MVP and projects for 4,282 yards and 35 touchdowns. Puka Nacua led the league in receptions and receiving yards per game and grades a 9, with Davante Adams opposite. Strength: no obvious below-average starting unit anywhere on the roster. Weakness: off-field uncertainty around Nacua, and a schedule both models rank among the six hardest. The question: is Aaron Donald coming back — and is there any acceptable excuse if this team doesn’t finish the job in its own building?

Seattle. Fourteen wins, the NFC’s top seed, three losses by a combined nine points, and a Super Bowl blowout. DVOA rated them the third-best champion ever. Strength: Macdonald’s defense, with Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon and reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba all grading 9, and Julian Love, Emmanwori, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas at 8. Weakness: a first-time play-caller, and the departure of a Super Bowl MVP who ran for 135 yards in the title game, with Charbonnet still rehabbing and Emmanwori on PUP. Second is aggressive for a team that lost a Super Bowl MVP — but Sharp has them third, NFL.com third and Clay fourth in projected wins, and nobody has actually beaten them yet. The question: what does this offense look like when nobody is propping Sam Darnold up?

San Francisco. A twelve-win season, a road playoff win in Philadelphia, and a divisional-round exit against the eventual champions. In most divisions the 49ers would be expected to contend. In this one they feel destined for third behind the Rams and Seahawks. The offense has recognizable names and real talent, and also a lot of age: Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk are all older and none of them are finished. Christian McCaffrey was excellent as a receiver out of the backfield last year but averaged 3.9 yards per carry as a pure runner, well below his career norms. Strength: Shanahan, plus McCaffrey, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa all grading 9. Weakness: Ricky Pearsall’s surgery was damaging, Trent Williams is 38, and Kittle is still working back from an Achilles tear. The questions: Brock Purdy was limited to nine games last season and this team can’t surprise anyone if that repeats — though Mac Jones played well in his opportunities. Where are Bosa and Warner physically after their 2025 injuries? And can 2026 second-rounder De’Zhaun Stribling get involved early enough to matter?

Arizona. Mike LaFleur inherits the hardest schedule in the league by both models. Jacoby Brissett is QB1 with Gardner Minshew behind him and third-round pick Carson Beck lurking; Clay grades the room a 3. Strength: more weapons than the record will suggest — Trey McBride grades a 9, No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love an 8, with Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Paris Johnson Jr. and Isaac Seumalo. Josh Sweat and Walter Nolen give the front real juice when healthy. Weakness: everything else. The question: can Arizona get Harrison back on track after two years of offensive dysfunction?

Projected Playoff Seeding

BSL AFC: 1. Bills · 2. Ravens · 3. Texans · 4. Chargers · 5. Broncos · 6. Patriots · 7. Bengals BSL NFC: 1. Rams · 2. Lions · 3. Eagles · 4. Buccaneers · 5. Seahawks · 6. Packers · 7. 49ers

Buffalo is our AFC favorite outright; Baltimore is the North favorite and close behind, with Denver, the Chargers and Houston in the next group. The Chargers win the West at 10-7 in a three-way scrum with Denver and Kansas City, which is about as thin a division title as we could project. The sixth and seventh seeds are a genuine coin flip between New England and Cincinnati, and the argument runs in both directions: Cincinnati has the better schedule and the higher ceiling, New England the better bet that its quarterback plays all seventeen games. If Burrow is available for a full season, the Bengals are almost certainly a playoff team. The Chiefs are our first team out at 10-7, which remains the call in this piece we’d most expect to be wrong. Dallas is the NFC’s first team out at 9-8.

For comparison, Clay’s model produces: AFC: Ravens, Broncos, Bills, Texans, Bengals, Patriots, Chiefs. NFC: Rams, Lions, Eagles, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers.

Breakout Watch: Five Names to Know

• Abdul Carter, EDGE, Giants. Seventy-two pressures as a rookie — including a league-best 48 in under 2.5 seconds — and only four sacks. Clay projects 7.9 this year. The finishing will come.
• Mike Green, EDGE, Ravens. Three and a half sacks as a rookie, and now gets to attack opposite of Hendrickson in an attacking scheme.
• Travis Hunter, CB, Jaguars. Full-time corner, part-time offensive weapon, on a defense that was first in EPA per play down the stretch. Clay projects him as the top fantasy corner in football.
• Cedric Gray, LB, Titans. Fifth in the NFL with 160 tackles as a first-time starter, now the centerpiece of a Saleh-Bradley zone scheme.
• Colston Loveland, TE, Bears. The 2025 first-rounder was good enough as a rookie to cut Cole Kmet from 73 catches in 2023 to 30 last season. Now DJ Moore’s targets are in Buffalo, Luther Burden III missed the preseason, and Clay projects Loveland for 118 targets and 898 yards — fourth among all tight ends. Ben Johnson built his Detroit offenses around tight end usage, and this is the first year he has the personnel to do it in Chicago.

Five Biggest Storylines Entering Week 1

1. The Rams are a superteam, and the NFL hasn’t had one of these in a while. Los Angeles carries an implied 12.5 percent championship probability after adjusting for the vig, more than five points clear of the Bills and Ravens. Les Snead traded Jared Verse and three picks for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, traded for Trent McDuffie, signed Jaylen Watson, extended Stafford, and has Aaron Donald working out in the building. Clay’s model has them first in scoring offense and first in scoring defense. Historically, teams that separate this dramatically before September have a mixed record of finishing the job — and the Super Bowl is at SoFi. The Ty Simpson pick at No. 13 will read as foresight or hubris depending entirely on February.

2. A coaching carousel that reshaped the league’s power structure. John Harbaugh is with the Giants after 18 seasons in Baltimore. Mike Tomlin is out in Pittsburgh after 20. Sean McDermott was fired in Buffalo, Raheem Morris in Atlanta. Jesse Minter, Joe Brady, Mike McCarthy, Todd Monken, Kevin Stefanski, Robert Saleh, Klint Kubiak, Mike LaFleur and Jeff Hafley are all running teams for the first time in their current chairs. Mike McDaniel is calling plays for the Chargers instead of running the Dolphins. Sean Payton handed play-calling to Davis Webb. Twenty-two teams — more than two-thirds of the league — will open the season with a new offensive coordinator. The AFC North alone has three new head coaches, two of them first-timers.

3. The skill-position market has fully broken. Jaxon Smith-Njigba reset the receiver market at $42.15 million per year. Zay Flowers got $35 million on two 1,000-yard seasons. Chris Olave signed for up to $132 million without a Pro Bowl. There are now a dozen receivers making at least $30 million annually and exactly one offensive tackle. And after years of being told they don’t matter, Bijan Robinson (nearly $67 million), Jonathan Taylor (two years, $44 million) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($22.5 million per year) all cashed in inside a two-week window. Puka Nacua’s next deal may reset everything again.

4. Quarterback second chances, everywhere you look. Kyler Murray beat out J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota. Rodgers is back in Pittsburgh at 42 for a final season. Cousins is holding the seat for Mendoza in Las Vegas. Tagovailoa, Penix and Cooper Rush are sorting it out in Atlanta. Watson, Sanders, Gabriel and Green are sorting it out in Cleveland. Malik Willis gets his first Week 1 start in Miami. Jacoby Brissett is bridging to Carson Beck in Arizona. Geno Smith is back where he started, in New York. A third of the league has organized its season around a player somebody else gave up on.

5. The AFC hierarchy is genuinely open — and Kansas City isn’t at the top of it. The Chiefs enter ninth in FPI, their worst preseason ranking since 2018, and Clay has them as the No. 7 seed. Baltimore, Buffalo, Denver, Houston, New England and now the Chargers all have credible paths to the top seed. Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL behind a roster that is objectively less talented than a year ago. For the first time since he took over, the road to the Super Bowl does not obviously run through Arrowhead. Our answer is that it runs through Orchard Park, with Baltimore close enough behind that a single January afternoon decides it.

The post 2026 NFL Preview: Power Rankings, Win Totals, and Every Team’s Defining Question appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Let’s not waste any more time. My last post was Ravens-specific, but this time I wanted to share my Top 50 Big Board and a full first round mock complete with trades. Let’s get after it!

My 2026 NFL Draft Top 50 Big Board

1. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
2. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
3. Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
4. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
5. Sonny Styles, LB, LSU
6. Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
7. Rueben Bain Jr, DE, Miami
8. David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
9. Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State
10. Peter Woods, DL, Clemson
11. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
12. Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
13. Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech
14. KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
15. Keonte Scott, DB, Miami
16. CJ Allen, LB, Georgia
17. Vega Ioane, G, Penn State
18. Jermod McCoy, DB, Tennessee
19. Kenyod Sadiq, TE, Oregon
20. Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
21. Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
22. Makai Lemon, WR, USC
23. Dilllon Thieneman, S, Oregon
24. Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
25. Keith Abney II, DB, Arizona State
26. Kedrick Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
27. Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State
28. Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
29. Avieon Terrell, DB, Clemson
30. Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami
31. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
32. Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State
33. Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M
34. Emmanuel Pregnon, G, Oregon
35. Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
36. D’Angelo Ponds, CB, Indiana
37. Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
38. Derrick Moore, DE, Michigan
39. Gennings Dunker, G, Iowa
40. Omar Cooper, WR, Indiana
41. Caleb Banks, DT, Florida
42. Julian Neal, CB, Arkansas
43. Kamari Ramsey, S, USC
44. Chris Brazzell, WR, Tennessee
45. Zachariah Branch, WR, Georgia
46. Keylan Rutledge, G, Georgia Tech
47. Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame
48. Skyler Bell, WR, UConn
49. R. Mason Thomas, DE, FSU
50. Chris Bell, WR, Louisville

As you can see, this list is wide receiver, offensive line, and edge defender-heavy. Not great if you need a quarterback, but we knew that. I’ll also say the offensive line and safety positions are probably the deepest in my opinion, which is good news for teams like Baltimore, New York (Jets and Giants), Cleveland, San Francisco, and Miami.

Speaking of other teams, here is my final 2026 NFL Mock Draft:

1. (Raiders) Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. TRADE (Browns from Jets) Jeremiah Love, RB, Notre Dame

· Cleveland sends Nos. 6, 24, and 39 overall to New York for Nos. 2 and 44 overall

3. (Cardinals) Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

4. (Titans) Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

5. (Giants) Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

6. (Jets, from Browns) Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

7. (Commanders) Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State

8. (Saints) David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech

9. (Chiefs) Rueben Bain, Jr., IDL, Miami (FL)

10. (Bengals) Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

11. (Dolphins) Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

12. (Cowboys) Francis Mauigoa, OL, Miami (FL)

13. (Rams) Makai Lemon, WR, Southern Cal

14. (Ravens) Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

15. (Buccaneers) Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State

16. (Jets) Peter Woods, IDL, Clemson

17. (Lions) Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

18. (Vikings) Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

19. (Panthers) KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

20. (Cowboys) Jacob Rodriguez, ILB, Texas Tech

21. TRADE (Bears from Steelers) Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

· Chicago sends Nos. 25, 89, and 129 overall to Pittsburgh for Nos. 21 and 99 overall

22. (Chargers) Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

23. (Eagles) Denzel Boston, WR, Washington

24. (Jets from Browns via Jaguars) Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn

25. (Steelers from Bears) Omar Cooper, Jr., WR, Indiana

26. (Bills) Chris Brazzell II, WR, Tennessee

27. (49ers) Emmanuel Pregnon, OG, Oregon

28. (Texans) Keylan Rutledge, OG, Georgia Tech

29. TRADE (Dolphins from Chiefs) Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

· Miami sends Nos. 29 and 148 overall to Kansas City for Nos. 30 and 130 overall

30. (Chiefs from Dolphins) Chris Bell, WR, Louisville

31. (Patriots) Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

32. (Seahawks) Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame

What are your thoughts? Let us know!

Can’t wait.

The post 2026 NFL Draft Top 50 Big Board and Final First Round Mock appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The devil or the raven is in the details, a new matte black helmet, and black talon stripes are nice touches but overall, the shirts and pants don’t look that different from the changes they made almost twenty-seven seasons ago. I have a feeling that with all eyes on Eric DeCosta to have a superb draft class he will lean more on the team’s history for the kind players that they will add this week, although I wouldn’t mind a few more risks.

Best Player Available vs. Biggest Needs

For years, Baltimore has trusted their board and often let the draft come to them. It’s a philosophy that has served them well over the years, but the question isn’t if it works, it’s is that that works now for this draft.

DeCosta has stated that he feels that the talent level falls off midway through Round One, so that could make Baltimore’s pick a sweet spot to land a blue-chip prospect at number 14.

Most experts and mocks are predicting the team will prioritize interior lineman or pass catchers for Lamar Jackson. While Connor Lew (Auburn) is the top-rated Center, many believe that the team will go instead with Vega Ioane the huge blocker from Penn State, or Spencer Fano (Utah), a versatile blocker who could fill multiple roles up front.

There have also been some sites that have linked offensive weapons like Makai Lemon (USC) who could be paired with Zay Flowers or Tight End Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)who has 4.39 speed and would help solidify a depleted Tight End room with the losses of Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar.

Of course, there is always the possibility of trading back to gather more draft capital but with Baltimore holding eleven picks in the draft I don’t think that seems likely.

I think the Ravens stay on brand here and select Vega Ioane who seems to be the most frequent projection, has a bit of a mean streak and has the most plug and play potential available. Sometimes the best player out there fits a glaring need, as well.

Building Around Lamar – What’s missing?

The structure around the two-time MVP has been the focus and will continue to be so in Baltimore if they are to return the playoffs and make a run.

The team still has holes on the Offensive line especially with the departure of Tyler Linderbaum. A possible replacement could be Logan Jones, a Rimington trophy winner who attended the same school also is a possibility to play right away.

With Rashod Batman’s inconsistency issues returning and the need for more depth aside from Devontez Walker Baltimore could look to add to the receiving corps. The second and third rounds could offer some help there with Germie Bernard (Alabama) being a popular selection with 4.48 speed as well as Tai Felton (Maryland) who also could be a dangerous alternative. The Ravens also could find their Tight End here too. Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt) has had a formal combine with the team and is a favorite of Mel Kiper, while Mason Taylor (LSU) may also be a possibility.

Plenty of Needs

With 11 picks, DeCosta is expected to be aggressive and with multiple fifth round picks at his disposal he should be. He could look to package picks to trade up if one of the Ravens main targets is in danger of being snapped up.

I mentioned earlier about the strategy of best player against need. I feel like the Ravens will lean more into needs due to so many players leaving due to free agency. Having cost-controlled talent that can help you will be important in 2026.

I expect during the first several rounds for Baltimore that they reinvest in both lines. It was a sign of weakness last season when it came to protecting Lamar and being able to get penetration on the defensive side. Jesse Minter’s defense relies on getting pressure with the interior and being able to drop the rest into coverage and doesn’t blitz much.

Here’s how I see it:

First Round (14) -Vega Ioane (OG) (Penn State) – He did not allow a single sack in 2025 and is a mauler type that reasserts a physical presence along the line.

Second Round (45) – Caleb Banks (DT) (Florida) – 6’6” Game wrecker with a quick first step and a ton of potential.

Third Round (80) – Connor Lew (IOL) (Auburn) – The Ravens have a history of drafting Centers and he’s the best option available there.

Fourth Round (115) – Chris McClellan (DL) (Missouri) – Added depth piece to a rebuilding Defensive Line.

That’s much of the early draft capital being devoted to the lines. In the latter rounds, there is a need for coverage at Running Back, Corner, and a starting Punter. Jeff Yurk was an All-American Punter at Elon and is a rising prospect that the Ravens may draft in the seventh round to eliminate a bidding war with other teams such as Minnesota. Yurk had a private workout with Baltimore and the interest in him in reported to be significant.

The post Third And Short: Draft Week Edition appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

How Off Was I To Start The Year?

Prior to Week 1, my comments on the Patriots and Seahawks were:

New England is picked to finish 2nd in the AFC East by basically everyone. Tre’Vyon Henderson, and Stefon Diggs should add some juice to the offense. The defense looks solid. All eyes will be on 2nd year QB Drake Maye. Maye looks talented enough to lift up his teammates. 

Seattle is an interesting team going into ’25. Sam Darnold is at QB after his marvelous ’24 season in Minnesota. Darnold no longer has Justin Jefferson to throw to, but he does have Jaxson Smith-Nigba, Cooper Kupp, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling at WR. The left side of the O-Line looks good.  Is right side of the line tolerable? Does RB Kenneth Walker bounce back some?  Can Kupp stay available (9 games, 12 games, 12 games) the last 3 years. He doesn’t have to be the 145 catch Kupp from the ’21 season, but he does have to take some attention off of Smith-Nigba. I don’t know what to expect from Darnold exactly. He was draft into the league in 2018 and it never clicked for him. People raved about the talent, but there is never enough talk about the surrounding talent and system.  Last year he had an opportunity and ran with it. Played at a level where he was getting MVP votes at year end. Now people are fixated on his loss in the Wild Card. My take would be expecting him to perform like a Pro Bowler might be expecting too much, but he has a chance to better for Seattle in ’25 than the Seahawks got from Geno Smith in ’24. This is Year 2 for Mike Macdonald as HC for Seattle. The defense has a chance to be amongst the best in the league. If they can pound the ball with Walker, and get a good play action game going; Seattle can be right in that playoff mix. Their over / under is set at 8.5, and that seems about right.

Can’t say I’m happy with my comments on either.
I thought both New England Seattle could be playoff teams; but I can’t say I expected either to be playing for a Super Bowl.

Reviewing Their Regular Seasons

New England won the AFC East, going 14-3.
They were 6-3 at home, 8-0 on the road, and outscored their opposition by 170 points.
They won their last 3 regular season games.
The Patriots started their season 1-2, and went 13-1 the rest of the way.

Seattle won the NFC West, also going 14-3.
They were 6-2 at home, 8-1 on the road, and outscored their opposition by 191 points.
They won their last 7 regular season games.
In Seattle’s three losses, they were outscored by a combined 9 points.

Drake Maye was a 2nd team All-Pro for the Patriots.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba was 1st team All-Pro for Seattle, with Ernest Jones, and Devon Witherspoon named to the 2nd team.

Christian Gonzalez was named to Pro Bowl for NE.
Sam Darnold, and DeMarcus Lawrence were Pro Bowlers for Seattle.

Based on average DVOA by opponent, the Patriots had the third-easiest schedule since 1978!

Final DVOA Rankings To End The Regular Season

Seattle – 1st overall, 10th offense, 1st defense, 2nd in special teams.
New England – 9th overall, 3rd offense, 23rd defense, 20th in special teams.

Their Playoff Paths

New England – The 2 seed in the AFC won in the Wild Card Round beating the Chargers 16-3, won the Divisional Round with a 28-16 victory over Houston, and won the AFC Championship today beating the Broncos 10-7 in Denver. It wasn’t the prettiest performance today for the Patriots; but you have to account for the Broncos quality defense and the deteriorating weather.

Seattle – The 1 seed in the NFC had a bye in the Wild Card Round, crushed SF 41-6 in the Divisional Round, and won the NFC Championship today beating the Rams 31-27.

The Head Coaches 

New England – Mike Vrabel. This was Year 1 for Vrabel (50 years old) as Head Coach with New England, after 8 years with the Patriots as a player. This was Vrabel’s 7th season as an NFL Head Coach. He’s 68-48 all-time in the regular season, and today was Vrabel’s 2nd Conference Championship Game as a HC.

Seattle – Mike Macdonald. This was Year 2 as the Seahawks Head Coach for the 38 year old former Ravens DC. Macdonald has started his HC career with a 24-10 regular season record.

Initial Prediction

The whole world outside of Boston is going to be anticipating a Seattle win, myself included.

The Seahawks are stronger on both sides of the ball, as well as Special Teams.

I haven’t seen an initial line, but I’d make Seattle a 7 point favorite.

But we’ve seen this story before.

If you are the underdog in the Super Bowl, you don’t have to beat the favorite 4x, you have to win once.

Drake Maye is probably going to finish 2nd in the NFL MVP vote.
I see Maye as more of an upper 1/3 talent vs. an Elite MVP talent; but he played at a consistently high level this year.
A fantastic season for the second year pro.
He’s certainly good enough to have a hot day – even against a very talented Seattle defense – and elevate the Patriots in a one game scenario.
Against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round Maye had 10 carries for 66 yards.  Against Denver today, he had 10 carries for 65 yards.
I believe the Patriots will need more of that in the Super Bowl.

Vrabel will have the Patriots galvanized with an, “Us vs. the world mentality.” 
By gametime, the Patriots will be foaming at the mouth to show they deserve more ‘respect.’
That makes for a dangerous team.

And the flip side of that is the Seahawks are going to spend the next two weeks hearing about they actually already won the Super Bowl when they beat the Rams for the NFC Title.
If the Patriots come out and have some initial success, and Seattle tastes adversity for the first time – that could be a recipe for a Patriots upset.

That outcome would still surprise me though.

The Patriots played the teams on their schedule, and get credit for controlling what they could control – but they played a very weak schedule this season.
I think their a solid playoff team, who is over their skis getting this far.
Everything points to Seattle exposing them a bit.

I think back to the Patriots December 22nd win in Baltimore.
The Ravens ran for 171 yards (5.2 yards per carry) in that game, and found a way to lose.
I expect Seattle will be able to run on the Patriots and set-up their play action game.
I picture Seattle building a lead, and their defense ultimately teeing off on Maye.
Certainly would be surprised to see Seattle’s defense crumble if they’re playing from ahead.

The Pick: 31-17 Seahawks, and a second Super Bowl title for Seattle.

The post Super Bowl 60 – New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Initial Thoughts appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Let’s look at where things stand across the AFC & NFC prior to this weekend’s games.

All playoff odds mentioned are per ESPN Analytics.

Here is a link to the DVOA Rankings heading into Week 14.

NFC

NFC East – Philadelphia enters this week on a two game losing streak. Had Dallas been able to get past Detroit, they could have put a bit of pressure on the Eagles. With the Cowboys loss, the Eagles have a 2 game margin in the loss column. The Eagles currently have a 95% chance of winning the division, and a 96% of making the playoffs.  Dallas is now 6-6-1, and their playoff odds are down to 8%, with a 5% chance of winning the East.  The Eagles are 11th overall DVOA, with the 11th ranked offense, and 9th ranked defense.

NFC North – Chicago is leading the division at 9-3, and has won their last 5.  Green Bay is 8-3-1, with Detroit now 8-5.  The Packers have the highest odds of reaching the post-season at 89%, and are given a 56% chance of claiming the North.  The Bears are given a 75% chance of  making the playoffs, and a 32% chance at the division. The Lions are given a 58% chance at the post-season, and 12% of repeating as the division winner.  Detroit – even before their win last night – was the top ranked North team by DVOA at 4th overall, with the 5th ranked offense, and 6th ranked defense.  Green Bay was right behind at 5th overall, with the 4th ranked offense, and the 7th ranked defense. Chicago is still just 19th overall in DVOA, with the offense at 12th, but only the 25th ranked defense.

NFC South – Tampa Bay is atop the South at 7-5, with the Panthers now just a 1/2 game behind at 7-6. The Bucs have an 80% of making the playoffs, and a 79% chance at winning the division. Carolina has a 23% of reaching the playoffs, and a 21% chance at a division title.  The Bucs are 15th overall in DVOA, with the 18th ranked offense, and the 8th ranked defense. Carolina comes in 26th overall in DVOA, with the 26th ranked offense, and 22nd ranked defense.

NFC West – Three teams with 9 wins, with the LA Rams and Seattle both 9-3, and the 49ers at 9-4. SF is given a 91% of making the playoffs, the Rams 91%, and Seattle 88%.  LA is given the best odds at the division at 49%, SF at 27%, and the Seahawks at 25%.  Seattle and the Rams are 1st, and 2nd overall in DVOA.  The Seahawks have the 8th ranked offense, and 1st ranked defense. The Rams are 1st in offense, 4th in defense. The Niners are 10th overall in DVOA, with the 6th best offense, but just the 24th ranked defense.

Currently the most likely seeding is:

1 LA Rams
2 Green Bay
3 Philadelphia
4 Tampa Bay
5 San Francisco
6 Seattle
7 Detroit

The Rams are given the highest odds of reaching the Super Bowl at 23%.

AFC

AFC East – With 11 wins, New England has nearly a 100% of making the playoffs, and currently are given an 84% chance of winning the East. The Bills have a 91% of making the post-season, but at 8-4 only a 16% chance of winning their six consecutive division title.  While the Pats have 11 wins, their just 14th overall in DVOA with the 10th ranked offense, and 26th rated defense. Buffalo is 9th overall, with the 9th ranked offense, and 20th ranked defense.

AFC North – The Ravens have a 59% chance of making the playoffs, which is equal to their chance of winning the division. Pittsburgh is given a 34% chance of the post-season, and a 33% chance of winning the North. Cincinnati has an 8% chance of winning the division. Baltimore dropped from 13th to 18th overall in DVOA after the Thanksgiving loss to Cincinnati. The Ravens have the 17th ranked offense, and 21st ranked defense. Pittsburgh is now 13th overall, with the 22nd ranked offense, and 12th ranked defense. Cincinnati comes in at 28th overall, with the 32nd rated defense.

AFC South – The Jaguars and Colts are both 8-4, with Houston a game back at 7-5. Jacksonville has won their last 3, Houston their last 4, and the Colts have dropped their last 2. Jacksonville is given an 85% chance of making the playoffs, Indianapolis is at 74%, and the Texans are a coin flip at 51%. The Colts have the highest odds at winning at the division at 41%, with Jacksonville right behind at 40%. Houston is given a 19% chance at the South title. Indianapolis is 3rd overall in DVOA, with the 2nd ranked offense, and 13th ranked defense. Houston is 8th overall with the 24th ranked offense, and 2nd ranked defense. Jacksonville is 12th overall with the 21st ranked offense, and 10th ranked defense.

AFC West – Denver is 10-2 and has won 9 straight. They’ve got a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and a 84% chance at the West. The Chargers are 8-4, and Kansas City is 6-6. LA has a 59% chance at the playoffs, and a 11% chance at the division. The Chiefs have won the West 9 straight years. That run appears over, with KC given only a 2% at winning the division. They still have a 41% chance at making the playoffs. By DVOA, KC is the top rated team in the West, 6th overall with the 3rd ranked offense, and 18th ranked defense. Denver is 7th overall, with the 15th ranked offense, and 5th ranked defense. LAC is 17th overall, with the 13th ranked offense, and 15th ranked defense.

Currently the most likely seeding is:

1 New England
2 Denver
3 Indianapolis
4 Baltimore
5 Buffalo
6 Jacksonville
7 Kansas City

The Broncos are given the highest odds of reaching the Super Bowl at 19%.

Sunday December 7th Games Of Note

Seattle at Atlanta – The Seahawks are a TD favorite, and given a 61.8% chance of winning.

Cincinnati at Buffalo – After beating the Ravens in Baltimore, the Bengals are 4-8. Their remaining schedule after this trip to Buffalo is the Ravens at home, at Miami, Arizona, and Cleveland. Their post-season odds go up dramatically if they’re able to upset the Bills. The Bills are a 6 point favorite, and given a 63.1% chance of winning. Seems like a likely shootout.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay – The Bucs have lost 3 of 4. Do they build off of their win over Arizona last week? They’re an 8.5 point favorite, and given a 73.5% chance of winning.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – The first of two games between these divisional foes. The Colts are a 1.5 point road favorite, and given a 55.2% chance of winning.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – The first of two games between these divisional foes. The Ravens are a 6 point favorite, and given a 65.4% chance of winning.  Lamar Jackson has been dealing with numerous injuries. Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken said this week, “I just give him a lot of credit – he’s battling each week trying to get healthy enough to be able to play every Sunday,” Monken said. “I mean, that’s what I see out of him. I see a guy that’s battling little nagging injuries, things that are stopping him from being able to get out there every day and practice.”  And then Jackson missed another practice yesterday, after getting his foot stepped on.

Denver at Las Vegas – The number 1 overall seed in the AFC remains in play, and the Broncos are a 7.5 point favorite here, and given a 69% chance of winning.

Chicago at Green Bay – The first of two games between these divisional foes. The Packers are a 6.5 point home favorite, and given a 69% chance of winning.

LA Rams at Arizona – The Rams are 8.5 point favorites, and given a 64.5% chance of winning.

Houston at Kansas City – It’s a game both teams need. The Texans are 3-3 on the road, while KC is 5-1 at home.  KC is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 66.1% chance of winning.

Monday December 8th

Philadelphia at LA Chargers – The Eagles are 4-2 on the road, while LA is 5-2 at home. Philadelphia is a 2.5 point road favorite, and given a 58.5% chance of winning. Justin Herbert is expected to play with a broken bone in his non-throwing hand.

The post Week 14 NFL Playoff Picture appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

New England is certainly one of the stories of the year.  I thought they could be a playoff team, but the 8-2 start has surprised me.

Drake Maye is the current MVP favorite, and Mike Vrabel is the current favorite for NFL Head Coach of the Year.

They’ve won 7 in a row entering tonight, and they are 5-0 on the road.

All credit to them for what they’ve accomplished so far this season; but I don’t think anyone would be afraid of facing them in the playoffs.

Entering tonight, New England is 17th overall in DVOA with the 9th ranked offense, and the 29th ranked defense.

Maye is having a fantastic 2nd season.

Stefon Diggs has 50 receptions, and five other teammates have 20+.

Rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson is averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

There is some collective performance here, and Maye is clearly spreading the ball around and elevating everyone – but this isn’t a group you’d fear as an opposing Defensive Coordinator.

Not trying to throw cold water on them.

Vrabel and Maye deserve respect, and their good enough to believe the Pats could have a chance in any game vs. anyone.
Also, their road record points to an overall maturity with the roster.

I’m surprised by their regular season so far.
I’m not expecting them to win multiple playoff games.
Maybe I’ll be surprised again.

Week 11 Quick Hits: 

All percentages via ESPN’s Match-up Predictor. 

Thursday Nov. 13th

NY Jets at New England –  The Patriots are given a 71.2% chance of winning, and are a 12.5 point favorite. After starting the year 0-7, the Jets have won their last two. Somehow they got a win last week with Justin Fields completing 6 of 11 attempts for 54 yards.  Fields was a 1st round pick in 2021.  The criticism he regularly gets is that he holds the ball too long, and doesn’t work quickly through his progressions. That’s a critique which can inhibit a guy from ever reaching his ceiling. But despite that limitation, I’ve thought that Fields could be a legitimate bottom 1/3 starting QB. Not good, but usable with his athleticism and strong arm. In 2022 he rushed for 1,143 yards (7.1 yards per attempt). This year he’s averaging 5.3 per carry.  Life for Fields doesn’t get any easier, as WR Garrett Wilson has been placed on IR and will miss at-least the next four games.

Sunday Nov. 16th

Washington vs. Miami – Everyone had DC stepping back this year after reaching the NFC Championship last year.  And that’s happened. And with the time Jayden Daniels has missed, combined with their defensive issues; it’s not surprising to anyone. Just a lost year.  DC will need to regroup, and invest in the blocking in-front of Daniels. Maybe they surprise again next year. Miami’s last four games have been up and down. 25 point loss in Cleveland. 24 point win in Atlanta. 22 point loss at home to the Ravens. 17 point win vs. Buffalo.  Didn’t see that win vs. the Bills coming. This game vs. Washington is in Madrid. Washington is given a 52.9% chance of winning, and is a 2.5 point favorite.

Carolina at Atlanta – The Falcons have dropped 4 in a row to fall to 3-6.  Pretty disappointing stretch for a team which does have talent. Most important thing for Atlanta the rest of the way is the play of Michael Penix. If he comes on down the stretch and they believe in him going forward – they can enter the off-season feeling good about where things are going.  Carolina being 5-5 isn’t going to get a ton of headlines, but HC Dave Canales gets credit for having a pretty limited team competitive each week. That said, that was a bad loss last week vs. the Saints at home. Carolina has scored 45 total points in their last four games.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo – After that loss to the Dolphins, the Bills have lost 3 of 5. They’re going to need this game to keep pace with the Patriots. The Bucs and Bills are both 6-3.  Tampa Bay is 4-1 on the road, while Buffalo is 4-1 at home.  Buffalo is given a 61% chance of winning, and is a 5.5 point favorite.  In DVOA, Tampa is 10th overall, with the 15th rated offense, and 7th rated defense.  The Bills are 11th overall with the 6th rated offense, and 22nd rated defense. Baker Mayfield is having another strong season, despite often not having Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving available. Evans seems likely to play this week, and of course Mayfield has had Rookie WR Emeka Egbuka available. Egbuka is averaging 16.9 yards per reception on his 40 catches so far this year.

Houston at Tennessee – The Texans can get back to .500 with a win here, but they’ll have to beat the Titans without CJ Stroud who will miss his second straight game. Houston is 8th overall in DVOA, with the 21st ranked offense, and the 1st ranked defense. If Houston can reach the post-season, that’s a team which could surprise.  Defense should give you a chance vs. anyone. Stroud capable of getting hot.  Houston is a 5.5 point favorite here.

Chicago at Minnesota – The 6-3 Bears travel to Minnesota to face the 4-5 Vikings.  The Bears are 25th overall in DVOA, with the 16th ranked offense, and 28th ranked defense. This seems like a game where Vikings QB JJ McCarrhy and his WR’s could get going. Minnesota is a 2.5 point home favorite, and given a 50.1% chance of winning. Rome Odunze is dealing with an ankle injury. After a career low 9.9 yards per reception last year, DJ Moore is averaging 13.4 this season – back in-line with his 13.5 career average. Moore is dealing with a shoulder injury.

Green Bay at NY Giants – The Packers are 5-3-1 after losing their last two games.  I’m still on Green Bay as one of the 8 or so teams capable of winning a Super Bowl; but 20 total points in these back-to-back losses have thinned the bandwagon. They’ve got good weapons, though they’ve now lost TE Tucker Kraft for the year. Rightly or wrongly, that leads to additional scrutiny on Jordan Love. Love has more than enough talent to win with. Love’s completion percentage is up, his interception percentage is down. He is being sacked more this year. While I think Green Bay is Super Bowl capable, they still have to get to the playoffs first. Right now they’re trailing both Detroit and Chicago in the NFC North. The Packers are a 7.5 point favorite.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – The Bengals were off last week after putting up 42 points on Chicago in a losing effort two weeks ago. In that game, Joe Flacco threw for 470 yards, and 4 TD’s.  This is Flacco’s second game vs. the Steelers in a Bengals uniform. In his first game with Cincinnati, Flacco and the Bengals beat the Steelers 33-31 Oct.17th.  Pittsburgh enters the game having lost 3 of 4, to fall to 5-4 overall. The Steelers as a whole – and Aaron Rodgers in particular – had a rough game vs. the Chargers this past weekend.  Is Rodgers going to fall apart as the weeks get colder?  Pittsburgh is 13th overall in DVOA, 17th in offense, 15th in defense. Pittsburgh is a 5.5 point favorite, and given a 58.6% chance of winning.

LA Chargers at Jacksonville – The 7-3 Chargers at the 5-4 Jags. LA is a 2.5 point road favorite, and given a 56.7% chance of winning. LA is 14th overall in DVOA, with the 14th ranked offense, and 12th ranked defense. A balanced team with a quality Head Coach and a quality QB. Again, that’s a team which could surprise in January. They enter this game having won their last 3.  The Jags have lost 3 of 4. If they could win here, they could start to get hot with trips to Arizona and Tennessee next up on their schedule.

Seattle at LA Rams – Per DVOA, this is a match-up of the two best teams in the league.  The Seahawks are 1st overall with the 4th ranked offense, and 3rd ranked defense.  The Rams are 2nd overall with the 2nd ranked offense, and 6th ranked defense.  Mike MacDonald in Year 2 at the helm of the Seahawks, 39 year old Sean McVay in Year 9 with the Rams.  Matthew Stafford is currently 2nd in the MVP race odds.  Sam Darnold had the breakout season last year with Minnesota, and he’s having another quality year this season with the Rams. Both of these NFC West teams are 7-2 with Seattle 4-0 on the road, and the Rams 3-1 at home. Both teams have won 4 in a row. First of two games between these teams. The Rams are given a 59.9% chance of winning, and are a 3.5 point favorite.

San Francisco at Arizona – The 49ers have lost 3 of 5, but are expected to get Brock Purdy back this week. The offense has remained productive (7th overall in DVOA), but the defense is just 26th. Might be too many injuries for SF to get past. SF is given a 57.5% chance of winning, and is a 2.5 point road favorite. Not a lot to say about Arizona. They’ll be without Marvin Harrison Jr (appendicitis). Kyler Murray is on IR, and if he does return this year – he’s not expected to start again in a Cardinals uniform.

Baltimore at Cleveland – The Ravens will attempt to run their winning streak to 4, and get to .500. It’s a division game, and the Ravens are on the road; but no excuses here, it’s a game they have to win. After missing practice yesterday, Lamar Jackson was back on the field today.

Kansas City at Denver – An AFC West battle. Denver is leading the division at 8-2.  KC is 5-4.  Obviously it’s a must-win game for KC if they are going to rally to win the West. If the Chiefs lose here, not only is the division race likely over, but KC’s chances of making the playoffs would take a hit. The Match-Up predictor is giving KC a 60% chance of winning, which feels high. Vegas also likes the Chiefs, placing them as a 3.5 point favorite. KC is 5th overall in DVOA with the 3rd ranked offense, and 14th ranked defense. The Broncos are 9th overall, with the 18th ranked offense, and 2nd ranked defense. Denver is 5-0 at home, while the Chiefs are 1-3 on the road. Bo Nix is taking a fair amount of criticism right now, but he’s not exactly surrounded by a lot of offensive talent. JK Dobbins is having a good year at RB, but he’s questionable with a foot injury. If he’s not able to go, RJ Harvey is plenty capable. The Broncos have won 7 in a row.

Detroit at Philadelphia – The NFC North leading Lions at the NFC East leading (and defending Super Bowl Champion) Eagles. Philly has won their last 3 games, and are a 2.5 point favorite here. They are given a 50.8% chance of winning. Detroit is 4th overall in DVOA with the 5th ranked offense, and 5th ranked defense. The Eagles are 7th overall with the 8th ranked offense, and 13th ranked defense. The Lions have alternated wins and losses over the last month.

Monday Nov. 17th

Dallas at Las Vegas – At 3-5-1, the Cowboys don’t have a great path to the post-season. A loss here would only lower those limited odds. Dallas is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 58.6% chance of winning.

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The Division Leaders are New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and Denver in the AFC.  Philadelphia, Green Bay, Tampa Bay leading the East, North, and South in the NFC. With San Francisco, Seattle, and the LA Rams tied at 5-2 in the NFC West.

In the MVP race, the current odds according to FanDuel are: 

Patrick Mahomes (+125)
Josh Allen (+350)
Drake Maye (+700)
Baker Mayfield (+900)
Matthew Stafford (+1200)
Jared Goff (+1800)

Offensive Player of the Year odds:

Jonathan Taylor (-140)
Jaxon Smith Njiba (+430)
Christian McCaffrey (+650)
Bijan Robinson (+1000)
Puka Nacua (+1300)
Ja’Marr Chase (+1500)

Defensive Player of the Year odds:

Micah Parsons (+165)
Aidan Hutchinson (+380)
Nik Bonitto (+550)
Myles Garrett (+650)
Will Anderson Jr (+900)
Jared Verse (+1800)

Offensive ROY odds:

Jaxson Dart (+100)
Emeka Egbuka (+175)

Defensive ROY odds:

Jihaad Campbell (+220)
Abdul Carter (+230)

Coach of the Year odds: 

Shane Steichen (+115)
Mike Vrabel (+300)

AFC Conference Championship odds: 

Kansas City (+240)
Buffalo (+350)
Indianapolis (+500)
Denver (+900)
Baltimore (+1100)
LA Chargers (+1200)

NFC Conference Championship odds:

Detroit (+370)
Green Bay (+410)
Philadelphia (+490)
LA Rams (+550)
San Francisco (+1100)
Tampa Bay (+1100)

Week 8 Quick Hits: 

All percentages via ESPN’s Match-up Predictor. 

Thursday October 23rd

Minnesota at LA Chargers – The 3-3 Vikings visit the 4-3 Chargers.  Minnesota is 2-1 away, while LA is 2-2 at home. LA is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 50.8% chance of winning. Minnesota is 22nd overall in DVOA (27th offense, 12th defense), while LA is 23rd overall (17th offense, 22nd defense). LA is a game back of Denver in the West, but does have a head-to-head win over the Broncos. After starting 3-0, the Chargers have dropped 3 of 4. The Vikings are at the bottom of the NFC North, and have alternated wins and losses each week so far this season.

Sunday October 26th

Miami at Atlanta –  The Dolphins (1-6 overall, 0-4 on the road) head to Atlanta to face the 3-3 Falcons. Atlanta is trailing both Tampa Bay and Carolina in the South, and has head-to-head losses vs. both. Atlanta is a 7.5 point favorite, and given a 62.1% chance of winning.

New York Jets at Cincinnati – Joe Flacco will attempt to lead the Bengals to .500, while New York is still searching for win #1.  Cincinnati is a 6.5 point favorite, and given a 57.8% chance of winning. Last week against the Steelers, Flacco threw for 342 yards and had 3 TD’s. The Bengals got 108 yards on the ground from Chase Brown on just 11 carries. Ja’Marr Chase had a ridiculous 16 catches for 161 yards, and a score.

Cleveland at New England – The AFC East leading Patriots have won their last four games, and are a 7.5 point favorite, and given a 68.1% chance of winning. Another start for Dillon Gabriel. He hasn’t thrown a pick yet, but he also hasn’t thrown for a TD the last two weeks (and was also sacked 8 times in those games). Drake Maye has thrown for 12 TD’s, and been picked just twice. He’s also ran for 200 yards with another 2 TD’s on the ground. After a 146 yard receiving game vs. the Bills, Stefon Diggs has had 97 yards total the last two weeks.

New York Giants at Philadelphia – The Eagles host the Giants two weeks after losing to the Giants in New York. Philadelphia ended their two game losing streak last week, with their win in Minnesota. Vegas has the Eagles as 7.5 point home favorites, and ESPN’s analytics are giving Philadelphia a 64.9% chance of winning. New York is 0-4 on the road, losing last week 33-32 in Denver with the Broncos putting up all 33 points in the 4th Quarter! While I’m sure that loss was crushing to Giants fans, Jaxon Dart had another good game, with 3 TD’s in the air, and another on the ground. Rookie RB Cam Skattebo is averaging 4.1 yards per rush. The Eagles enter the weekend 11th overall in DVOA, with the 10th rated offense, and 17th ranked defense.

Buffalo at Carolina – The Bills are currently in an unfamiliar spot, as they’re currently looking up to the Patriots in the East.  DVOA has the Bills 13th overall, with the 6th rated offense, but just the 26th ranked defense. Buffalo will be attempting to end a 2 game slide. Carolina enters the week at a surprising 4-3, and have won 4 of their last 5. The Panthers are 21st overall in DVOA, with the 23rd ranked offense, and 15th ranked defense. The Bills are 7.5 point road favorites, and given a 55.2% chance of winning in Carolina. The Panthers are 3-0 at home, while Josh Allen is 7-0 historically coming off of a bye.

Chicago at Baltimore – The Bears are 4-2, and the Ravens are 1-5; and Vegas doesn’t care. The Ravens are 6.5 point favorites, and given a 60% chance of winning. Chicago has won their last 4 games, and are 19th overall in DVOA (with the 20th ranked offense, and 19th ranked defense). In their four game winning streak, Caleb Williams has been under 30 pass attempts in three of the four games. D’Andre Swift has had back-to-back 100+ yard rushing days, and his yards per carry for the season is up to an impressive 4.7.  2nd year WR Rome Odunze has 5 TD’s, and is averaging 15 yards per reception. Obviously it’s a must win game for the Ravens, as they will begin to try and climb out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves.

San Francisco at Houston – The Texans are a disappointing 2-4, but are a 2.5 point home favorite and given a 56.2% chance of winning here. The Niners enter the week 5-2 overall, 3-1 on the road. Despite the record, Houston is 8th overall in DVOA (24th ranked offense, 3rd ranked defense). San Francisco is 18th overall in DVOA (12th ranked offense, and 21st ranked defense). SF was able to beat Atlanta last week, despite Mac Jones throwing for just 152 yards and no scores.  Christian McCaffrey has been productive all year as a receiver out of the backfield, but last week was his first strong game running the ball (129 yards, 5.4 per attempt). Former MD Terp Sam Okuayinonu had a sack.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans – The Bucs are 3-1 on the road.  The Saints are 1-6 overall. TB is a 4.5 point favorite, and given a 64.1% chance of winning. Mayfield has thrown for 13 TD’s, and has just 2 picks. Mike Evans returned Monday vs. the Lions, but is facing additional surgery for a broken collarbone. That will keep him out around 8 weeks. Chris Godwin will be available for just the third time this year. The Bucs have 20 sacks on the season, with three different players having at-least 2. DVOA has Tampa Bay 16th overall, with the 13th ranked offense, and 14th ranked defense.

Dallas at Denver – The Broncos have won their last four, after their fourth quarter explosion vs. the Giants last week. Denver is leading the AFC West at 5-2, and is 14th overall in DVOA (19th ranked offense, and 8th ranked defense). Dallas is 1-3 on the road, while Denver is 3-0 at home. Dallas is 3-3-1 and 9th overall in DVOA with the 4th ranked offense, but the 30th ranked defense. Denver is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 54.6% chance of winning. JK Dobbins is 7th overall in the league with 523 rushing yards, and is averaging 5 yards a carry. For the Cowboys, former Bronco Javonte Williams has 592 rushing yards which is good for 2nd overall in the league, and is averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. 2x All-Pro Patrick Surtain vs. CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens is a fun match-up.  As a whole, you’ve Denver’s strong defense vs. Dallas’ quality offense; but the story of the game will probably be Dallas’ inept defense.

Tennessee at Indianapolis – The Colts have won 6 of their first 7, and are facing the Titans for the second time. Indianapolis already has two 3 game winning streaks. Indianapolis is a 14.5 point favorite, and given a 82.8% chance of winning. Indianapolis has a fantastic play action game with Jonathan Taylor and Daniel Jones.  Taylor’s already rushed for 10 TD’s. Rookie TE Tyler Warren is leading the Colts with 439 yard receiving yards on 33 catches. Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce both have over 300 yards receiving as well. DeForest Buckner and Tyquan Lewis lead the Colts with 3 sacks each. Former Terp Nick Cross is having a strong year at Safety. The Titans are 1-6, with their lone win being a 1 point victory over Arizona.  The Colts are 3rd overall in DVOA with the top ranked offense, and 16th ranked defense.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh – Aaron Rodgers vs. Green Bay. The 4-2 AFC North leading Steelers vs. the 4-1-1 NFC North leading Packers. Green Bay has won their last two games. The Steelers enter this game coming off of their loss at Cincinnati. Green Bay is a 2.5 point favorite, and given a 55.2% chance of winning. The Packers are 6th overall in DVOA, with the 8th ranked offense, and 7th ranked defense. The Steelers are 10th overall in DVOA with the 9th ranked offense, and 20th ranked defense. Jordan Love’s completion percentage is up to 69.3% vs. 63.1% last year. Josh Jacobs practiced today in a limited capacity. He’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. He does have 8 TD’s rushing, and has also caught 16 passes. TE Tucker Kraft and WR Romeo Doubs have combined for 47 catches and 8 TD’s. Rashan Gary, and Michah Parsons both have 5.5 sacks. Rodgers is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt vs. 6.7 last year. DK Metcal is averaging 18.5 yards per reception, and has 4 TD’s. TJ Watt and Nick Herbig have combined for 8.5 sacks.

Monday October 27th

Washington at Kansas City – The Chiefs offense has perked up as bodies have returned. KC is 4-3, and a game back of Denver in the West. KC is up to 5th overall in DVOA, and now have the 2nd ranked offense, and the 9th ranked defense. Washington is 7th overall in DVOA with the 14th ranked offense, and the 18th ranked defense. Kansas City is a 11.5 point favorite, and given a 74.6% chance of winning. Washington is 3-4 overall, and will be without Jayden Daniels in this game. Washington is giving up 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and allowing 364.3 yards per game.

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Week 5 Quick Hits: 

49ers 26 Rams 23 – The weekend started with San Francisco getting an OT win in LA against their NFC West rival. Without Bruck Purdy, George Kittle, or Nick Bosa; the Niners found a way to improve to get the road win. With the W, SF is now 4-1 overall, and 3-0 on the road. Mac Jones had 342 yards passing, along with 2 TD’s.  His efforts this year in replacing Purdy have been huge. Christian McCaffrey had another poor day rushing the ball (2.6 yards per carry on 22 attempts), and another productive day as a receiver out of the backfield (82 yards, 1 td). Kendrick Bourne had a big game, with 142 yards on 10 receptions. Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams both lost fumbles, Williams coming on the goal line late in the 4th Quarter.  Stafford had 389 yards with 3 TD’s. There were four different Rams who had at-least 66 yards receiving. The Rams were playing a banged up team at home. This was a game they should have won. Instead the Niners get that additional road W, putting them in a strong position as they move towards getting healthier.

Vikings 21 Browns 17 – JJ McCarthy missed another game, and Carson Wentz got another W, as the Vikings won in London. In addition to McCarthy, the Vikings were missing a number of offensive lineman in-front of Wentz. Justin Jefferson averaged 17.6 yards per catch on his 7 grabs. Rookie Dillion Gabriel had 2 TD’s in his starting debut for Cleveland. Minnesota is on a bye this week. NFL Network reported that their plan is for McCarthy to be reinserted as the starter for Week 7. Will be curious to see if he’s able to keep the job.  Those reviewing the game films from Wentz’s starts, have talked about how Minnesota is more dangerous with him being able to use the entire field. So McCarthy not only has to get back from his injury, he needs to show he is comfortable running the entire playbook.

Colts 40 Raiders 6 – Indianapolis is 4-1, and 3-0 at home. They won this game by 34, with Jonathan Taylor being held to 66 yards on 17 attempts ( he did have 3 td’s ). Four sacks and two picks for the Colts defense. Daniel Jones is on-pace to throw for 4,400 yards.

Saints 26 Giants 14 – New Orleans gets win #1.  The Giants weren’t able to follow-up their win over the Chargers. Jaxson Dart threw 2 picks, and also lost a fumble. His teammates lost two other fumbles. The Giants didn’t record a sack. The Saints Spencer Rattler connected with Rashid Shaheed for 4 catches, 114 yards, and a score.

Cowboys 37 Jets 22 – Dallas improved to 2-2-1, as New York fell to 0-5. Dax Prescott had 4 TD’s on just 29 attempts, connecting with George Pickens once, Jake Ferguson twice, and Javonte Williams once. Williams had 135 yards rushing, including one 66 yard scamper.  Dallas was playing without four starting O-Lineman, and WR CeeDee Lamb. Prescott is playing at a high level.  They’ve got an excellent kicker. Their getting production at RB. The WR’s and TE’s when healthy are excellent.  There is enough going for them offensively that you can envision them as a playoff team.

Broncos 21 Eagles 17 – Philadelphia was due for a loss. The outcome is more meaningful to Denver than the Eagles.  The Broncos showed themselves they could go into the home of the World Champs and win. And do that overcoming a 14 point deficit. When you think about the progression of teams into contenders, one stop on the journey is believing you compete with the best. The next step is getting actual results. Strong 4th Quarter for Bo Nix, as he was 9 of 10 for 126 yards and a score. JK Dobbins had another productive game.

Panthers 27 Dolphins 24 – Carolina came back from 17 points down to get their 2nd win. RB Rico Dowdle put up a 206 yard day, including a long of 53. The Dolphins fell to 1-4, 0-3 on the road. Miami should be looking to sell off parts and acquire picks and cap room. Maybe Mike McDaniel is kept for the remainder of this season to absorb the impending losses that are sure to come?

Texans 44 Ravens 10 – My only real takeaway from this game is that Houston did what they should have done against an injury-riddled, inferior team. They didn’t let the Ravens hang around and believe they could win. They kept their foot on the Ravens throat.  If they can sustain that mental approach, they’ve got time to close the gap with Indianapolis in the AFC South.

Titans 22 Cardinals 21 – Win number 1 for the Titans and Cam Ward. Tennessee outscored Arizona 16-0 in the 4th. The winning points coming on a field goal as time expired to cap an 11 play, 71 yard drive. It’s a third straight loss for Arizona, and this one was particularly disappointing as they controlled the action over the first three quarters.

Buccaneers 38 Seahawks 35 – Tampa Bay improved to 4-1 overall, and 3-0 on the road. Seattle fell to 3-2 overall, 1-2 at home. Baker Mayfield was near perfect, going 29 of 33 for 379 yards and 2 TD’s. He produced that in the air, with his teammates giving him nothing on the ground (Bucs had 24 carries for 56 yards). 1st round pick Emeka Egbuka blew up with 7 catches, for 163 yards (a long of 57), and a score. Seattle lost despite their offense having a good day.  Sam Darnold had 341 yards and 4 scores. Seattle averaged 6.1 yards per carry on 20 attempts. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ( a Ohio State WR like Egubka ) had 132 yards and a TD. More of a quality win for Tampa Bay than a bad loss for Seattle.

Lions 37 Bengals 24 – Detroit wins this battle of the cats. Cincinnati decided after this game they weren’t getting enough from Jake Browning after this game, and traded for Joe Flacco who has been inserted as the starter. Was more of a workmanlike performance for Detroit than straight domination, but they look like a good bet for 30+ points every time out. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are a great combo at RB.  Amon-Ra St.Brown, and Sam LaPorta and company are a handful at WR and TE. Aidan Hutchinson had sack #5. Browning had 3 TD’s in this game, but was also picked 3 times.  That will get you benched. Flacco has to be excited having Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins to throw to.

Commanders 27 Chargers 10 – DC improved to 3-2, and LA fell to 3-2. LA led 10-0 at the end of the 1st Quarter, and Washington outscored them 27-0 the rest of the way. Jayden Daniels had his first start in a few weeks, and was working his way back into form. With him not clicking at 100%, DC has to feel good about getting that road win. 2025 7th round pick Jacory Croskey-Merritt had 111 yards rushing on just 14 carries. LA’s Justin Herbert was sacked 4 times, and has now been sacked 16 times on the year. He completed 22 passes, but only for 166 yards. He did lead LA in rushing, with 60 yards (including a long of 41).

Patriots 23 Bills 20 – The world didn’t collapse for Buffalo because they didn’t win this game; but it was a significant step for New England. The AFC East has been dominated by Buffalo in recent years.  NE winning a road game vs. their rival should do a lot for their confidence. Stefon Diggs was ready to play against his former team, putting up 10 catches for 146 yards. The Patriots did an excellent job containing James Cook (15 carries, 49 yards). The Bills remain the division favorite, but NE took a significant step towards getting back to the playoffs with the win.

Jaguars 31 Chiefs 28 – Jacksonville had 24 points in the second half, and improved to 4-1 overall, 3-0 at home. KC had 476 yards to Jacksonville’s 319, and also had just one turnover to the Jags 2; and still lost. KC fell to 2-3, and there has to be some concern amongst Chiefs fans if this is the year they finally don’t win the AFC West. Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco both had excellent yards per carry, but both only had 7 carries each. For the Jags, Travis Hunter had 3 catches for the second straight week, and also defended a pass. The Jags are in excellent post-season position.

Week 6 Quick Hits: 

All percentages via ESPN’s Match-up Predictor. 

Thursday October 9th

Philadelphia at NY Giants – The Eagles are 7.5 point road favorites, and given a 74.4% chance of winning. Saquon Barkley had 6 carries in the loss to Denver.  Don’t expect that to happen again.

Sunday October 12th

Denver vs NY Jets (London) – Denver is a 6.5 point favorite, and given a 70.8% chance of winning. Denver’s Nik Bonitto has 7 sacks.

Arizona at Indianapolis – The Colts are 7.5 point home favorites, and given a 65.3% chance of improving to 4-0 at home. Indianapolis is 3rd overall in DVOA, 2nd in offense, and 5th in defense. Arizona is 25th in offense, and 8th in defense, 19th overall.  Kyler Murray didn’t practice today for Arizona.

LA Chargers at Miami – Not a game LA can lose. LA is a 3.5 road favorite, and given a 60.2% chance of winning. Miami is 32nd overall in defense via DVOA.

New England at New Orleans – Sometimes you see young teams stumble the week after an emotional win. Will that happen to NE here?  They are 3.5 road favorites, and given a 59.8% chance of winning.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh – The Steelers are coming off a bye, and have the Browns at home. They should improve to 4-1. They’re a 5.5 home favorite, and given a 65% chance of winning.

Dallas at Carolina – Dallas had tied, and won the last two weeks. Carolina has won two of their last three, and is 2-0 at home. Dallas is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 61.3% chance of winning. What does Carolina RB Rico Dowdle do for an encore after his 200 yard game? Looks like Cee Dee Lamb might play for Dallas. Via DVOA, Dallas is 5th overall in offense, and 31st overall in defense.

Seattle at Jacksonville – Despite the loss to Tampa Bay; Seattle is 2nd overall in DVOA. They’ve got the 3rd ranked offense, and 7th ranked defense. They’re 1.5 point road favorites here, with Jacksonville given a 50.2% chance of defending their home field.

LA Rams at Baltimore – The Rams are 7.5 road favorites, and given a 58.7% chance of winning. The Rams are 4th overall in DVOA, with the #1 ranked offense, and the 11th ranked defense. Lamar Jackson missed his 5th straight practice, and I don’t think there is an expectation he plays. There does seem to be some hope that Marlon Humphrey, Ronnie Stanely, and Patrick Ricard suit-up. The only way the Ravens compete here is if they can run. If the Ravens lose here, and they are 1-5 going into their bye; they’ll be written off by basically everyone. Myself, I don’t think Pittsburgh is particularly great, and think the Ravens could still end up catching them in the AFC North. But it will become that much harder to believe a complete 180 on this season is possible, if they are as uncompetitive this week as they were last week vs. Houston. If they could find a way to beat a quality team, that would be nice boost going into the rest week.

Tennessee at Las Vegas – The 1-4 Titans at the 1-4 Raiders. Vegas is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 64.6% chance of winning. By DVOA, Vegas is 29th overall and Tennessee is 30th.

Cincinnati at Green Bay – Flacco has already beat Green Bay once this year. Now gets to try again in a Bengals uniform. Green Bay is 7th overall in DVOA with the 11th ranked offense, and 3rd ranked defense. The Packers had a week off, after their tie with Dallas, and the loss at Cleveland the week prior. Green Bay is a massive 14.5 point favorite here, and given a 80.6% chance of winning.

San Francisco at Tampa Bay – Both NFC teams are 4-1. The Niners are 3-0 on the road. Tampa Bay is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 58.3% chance of winning. DVOA doesn’t love either team, with SF currently showing as 16th overall, and Tampa Bay coming in at 18th.

Detroit at Kansas City –  KC can’t be super excited about seeing Detroit this week.  The Chiefs are 2-3, and clearly still trying to put things together. Detroit is going to get their points. Can KC stay within striking range, or do the Lions pull away?  KC is a 1.5 point home favorite, and given a 54.8% chance of winning. I’d think Detroit doesn’t believe they’re the underdog here. By DVOA, Detroit is 1st overall, with the 4th ranked offense, and 2nd ranked defense. KC is 6th overall, which indicates they’re a bit better overall than they’ve looked to-date.

Monday October 13th

Buffalo at Atlanta – The 4-1 Bills trip to Atlanta.  The Falcons had a bye this past week, and had a strong offensive performance the week prior vs. Washington. Can they follow-up of that offensive performance vs. the Bills? The Bills are 4.5 point favorites, and given a 61% chance of winning. Buffalo is 9th overall in DVOA with the 6th ranked offense, but just the 22nd ranked defense. Atlanta is 13th overall in DVOA, with the number 1 ranked defense.

Chicago at Washington – Caleb Williams comes home to face Jayden Daniels. The Bears won their last two games prior to being off this past week. Washington is a 4.5 point favorite here, and given a 65.3% chance of winning. Washington is 5th overall in DVOA, with the 8th ranked offense, and 10th ranked defense.  Pretty strong showing there, especially offensively given that Daniels has missed some time. The Bears are 23rd overall in DVOA, with both their offense and defense ranking 23rd overall.

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Week 4 Quick Hits: 

Seahawks 23 Cardinals 20 – Seattle improved to 3-1 on the year, including 2-0 on the road. They got 155 yards rushing in this game, with 6 sacks, and 2 picks. They’re entering October looking like a playoff team.

Steelers 24 Vikings 21 – Minnesota had 15 fourth quarter points, but it wasn’t enough as Pittsburgh got the win the NFL’s first game in Ireland. Aaron Rodgers was 18 of 22 for 200 yards, averaging 9.1 yards per attempt. Kenneth Gainwell had 99 yards on 19 attempts, with 2 td’s. DK Metcalf had a big game, with 5 receptions, 126 yards, and a score. The Steelers defense came up with 6 sacks, and 2 picks. Carson Wentz put up 350 yards with 2 TD’s, but had 46 attempts which doesn’t seem ideal. Jordan Addison was back in action, and he and Justin Jefferson combined for 14 receptions, and 240 yards. You’d think with all of the attention those Vikings receivers command, that they could have gotten more out of RB Jordan Mason (16 carries, 57 yards).

Falcons 34 Commanders 27 – Atlanta rebounded from a horrible showing vs. Carolina to get the win here.  Washington fell to 2-2 overall, with Atlanta improving to 2-2. This was a second straight start for Marcus Mariota in-place of an injured Jayden Daniels. The Falcons got big days from Michael Pennix (20 of 26, 313 yards, 2 td’s), and Bijan Robinson (17 carries, 75 yards, 1 td rushing, and 106 yards receiving). Drake London also had 8 grabs for 110 yards and a score.

Bills 31 Saints 19 – This was actually still a game into the 4th before Buffalo pulled away. Three sacks for the Bills defense, and a pick.  James Cook had 117 yards rushing, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.

Lions 34 Browns 10 – Cleveland’s strong defense didn’t allow Detroit’s offense to explode, but this game was over early after a couple of first half Joe Flacco picks.

Patriots 42 Panthers 13 – New England improved to 2-2 on the year. The Patriots certainly aren’t some juggernaut, but they can be a playoff team playing complimentary football. Stefon Diggs had his first 100 yard game as a Patriot. Drake Maye would be helped if the Pats could get some more consistent production from Rhamondre Stevenson, and TreVeyon Henderson. Carolina fell to 1-3, with all three losses coming on the road.

Giants 21 Chargers 18 – The money line upset of the week as New York got their first win of the year in Jaxson Dart’s first career start. We always say the margin between the best and worst in the NFL is not huge on any given week; but it’s still disappointing if you are an LA fan seeing them not being able to get this W.  Dart gave NY some life, with 54 yards rushing (and a score); but he was only 13 of 20 for 111 yards throwing. He was also sacked 5 times (4 coming from Tuli Tuipulotu!). So, LA got Dart to the ground 5 times, and the Chargers Omarion Hampton ran for 128 yards on 12 carries and they still lost.  Justin Herbert was climbing in the early MVP odds before this game. Vs. the Giants, Herbert only had 203 yards on 41 attempts. He was also picked twice. Poor NY couldn’t even really enjoy this win, as 2nd year star WR Malik Nabers tore his ACL.

Eagles 31 Buccaneers 25 – Philadelphia won again, improving to 4-0. The Eagles were up 24-6 at halftime, before the Bucs mounted a rally. It was only that close at the break, because the Bucs Kicker Chase McLaughlin had a 65 yard kick to end the half. Baker Mayfield had two 70 yard td’s closing the gap, but down 8 midway through the 4th, he threw a pick at the Eagles 11 yard line. What exactly is the key to beating the Eagles? Saquon Barkley had just 43 yards rushing. Jalen Hurts threw for just 130 yards. Tampa Bay had two players with over 100 yards receiving. The Bucs did have two turnovers.

Texans 26 Titans 0 – I didn’t think the Titans would win more than 4-5 games this year, but I thought they could be competitive most weeks. Maybe not.  This was win #1 for Houston. This was the Texans’ first shutout in 15 years. Rookie RB Woody Marks had 69 yards and a score on 17 carries. He also had another 50 yards receiving, with another score. Two more sacks for Danielle Hunter.

Rams 27 Colts 20 – Fun game between two good teams. LA won improving to 3-1, with Indianapolis falling to 3-1. Matthew Stafford threw for 375 yards and had 3 TD’s. 170 yards and a score on 13 catches for Puka Nacua. Daniel Jones had 2 picks. Adonai Mitchell’s fumble at the goal line had to make for a long flight back.

Jaguars 26 Niners 21 – Jacksonville improved to 3-1, handing San Francisco their first loss. Parker Washington returned a punt for a TD, and the Jags came up with 4 turnovers. Brock Purdy was strip sacked with about 3 minutes left in his return to action. Travis Etienne ran for 124 yards, including a long of 48.  Christian McCaffrey was held to 49 yards rushing (2.9 per attempt), but did have 92 yards receiving for SF. Devin Lloyd had 2 picks for Jacksonville.

Chiefs 37 Ravens 20 – Baltimore was outscored 37-13 after the Ravens took an initial 7-0 lead. The game wasn’t particularly close, but that had more to do with Baltimore’s injury riddled defense not being able to get stops. The Chiefs offense entered this game looking anemic, but got well against the Ravens. A healthy Xavier Worthy injected some speed into the Chiefs attack.

Bears 25 Raiders 24 – A blocked field goal attempt secured it for Chicago.  Four different Bears had at-least 4 receptions. Bears still need more from D’Andre Swift (14 carries, 38 yards). Chicago didn’t have any sacks, but they did have 5 Tackle’s For Loss, and 3 picks. They also held Geno Smith to just 117 yards.  One positive for the Raiders is that Ashton Jeanty had has best game as a pro, putting up 138 yards on 21 attempts.

Packers 40 Cowboys 40 – It’s a tie that should feel like a loss for Green Bay. Dallas putting up 40 points without CeeDee Lamb has to be disappointing if you are a Packers fan. Dallas has to be encouraged by the production they’re getting from RB Javonte Williams (5 yards per carry on 63 attempts so far this year). George Pickens had 134 yards and 2 scores as option #1 for Dak Prescott. For Green Bay, Jordan Love threw for 337 yards and 3 td’s. Josh Jacobs had a combined 157 yards rushing and receiving – and it still wasn’t enough.

Dolphins 27 Jets 21 – Win number 1 for Miami, and loss number 4 for New York. The biggest story from this game was the gruesome injury suffered by Miami WR Tyreek Hill. In ’22 and ’23, Hill had back-to-back 119 catch, 1,700 yard seasons. Safe to say he’s never reaching those heights again.

Broncos 28 Bengals 3 – Denver got their 2nd win, and Cincinnati is in for a long year without Joe Burrow. Bo Nix had 326 yards with 2 td’s.  JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey combined for 30 carries for 159 yards. The Denver defense had 3 sacks.

Week 5 Quick Hits: 

All percentages via ESPN’s Match-up Predictor. 

Thursday October 2nd

San Francisco at LA Rams – The Rams are given a 70.8% chance of winning, and are an 8.5 point favorite. Both of these teams are tied with Seattle at 3-1 at the top of the NFC West.

Sunday October 5th

Minnesota at Cleveland – Dillon Gabriel is getting his first start for the Browns. Minnesota is given a 63.7% chance of winning, and they’re a 3.5 point favorite.

Vegas at Indianapolis – The Colts with a good opportunity to get back to winning with Vegas coming to town.

New York Giants at New Orleans – 1-3 NY at 0-4 New Orleans for all the marbles. It’s a shame in-general that Nabers got hurt, but the Louisiana native misses the opportunity to play back in his home state. If the Saints can’t win here, it might be Nov. 9th the next time NO has a good chance at their first win.

Dallas at NY Jets – NY has yet to win, and RB Braelon Allen was placed on IR.  The Jets have had three competitive games. Can they break through vs. Dallas? Feel like the Cowboys will be up after their tie vs. the Packers. ESPN is giving Dallas a 58.1% chance of winning.

Denver at Philadelphia – The Eagles are 3.5 point favorites. What’s the path to a Denver win?  Huge defensive effort, plus multiple Broncos turnovers?

Miami at Carolina – Another horrible game. Miami is a slight favorite according to Vegas, with Carolina given 51.3% chance of winning according to ESPN. A game for guys to show out and potentially get traded before the trade deadline.

Houston at Baltimore – The injured list for the Ravens is carrying a lot of names. Currently seems likely that Cooper Rush is going to have to start. This is one of those weeks where it doesn’t matter who is under Center, and who isn’t available; the Ravens still have to find a way to win. Don’t think there will be any surprises here. Derrick Henry is going to get the ball. Houston has a quality defense. We will see if they tire out tackling the big RB. Vegas has Houston as a 2.5 point favorite.

Tennessee at Arizona – At 2-2, the Cards are a game behind all three of their NFC West foes. They are 7.5 point favorites here, in a game they can’t afford to lose.

Tampa Bay at Seattle – Two 3-1 teams in a good NFC game. Seattle is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 53.6% chance of winning.

Detroit at Cincinnati – Hard to imagine a scenario where the Bengals win here. Detroit is a 10.5 point favorite.

Washington at LA Chargers – Daniels plans to return for this game. Washington is 0-2 on the road. The Chargers will be looking to rebound from their outing vs. the Giants. LA is given a 57.6% chance of winning, and is a 2.5 point favorite.

New England at Buffalo – This isn’t a game that the Bills have to have, but it is a game where the Patriots want to show they’ve closed the gap on their divisional foe. The Bills are 3-0 at home. Buffalo is given a 68.4% chance of winning, and is a 7.5 point favorite.

Monday October 6th

Kanas City at Jacksonville – Interesting game here.  The Chiefs will look to put together a good offensive game for the second straight week. The 3-1 Jags are 2-0 at home, and a win here in primetime against KC would establish them as a pretty solid playoff contender.

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That adage held true yesterday, with a number of surprising results.

Week 3 Quick Hits:

Bills 31 Dolphins 21 – Buffalo ran their record to 3-0, while Miami remains winless. Josh Allen threw for 3 td’s, and James Cook averaged 5.7 yards per attempt on his 19 carries. I’m surprised that Dolphins Head Coach Mike McDaniel was not let go.

Browns 13 Packers 10 – It’s surprising, but not shocking that Green Bay lost at Cleveland. The Browns have a good defense. Emotional let downs happen. Still, Green Bay entered the 4th Quarter leading 10-0, and found a way to lose. Quality Browns defense or not, the Packers offense should be expected to put more than 10 points. Leading 10-3 with 3:18 left, Jordan Love was picked off on 3rd and 3 at the Packers 25. This gave the Browns the opportunity to tie the game. With 27 seconds left, Green Bay attempted a field goal for the lead, but Browns came up with the block. Cleveland only had to gain 16 yards to set-up the time expiring game winner. Credit the Browns for battling.  Understand that upsets happen when you don’t put away inferior teams early.  Knock the Packers a little bit, for not being complete dialed in from the opening kick. The Browns run defense built off their outstanding performance vs. Derrick Henry by holding Josh Jacobs to 30 yards over 16 carries. Quinshaw Judkins had another productive day at RB (94 yards, 18 carries).

Colts 41 Titans 20 – I thought this was a game that had the potential to be closer. Instead Indianapolis imposed their will. Another great game for Jonathan Taylor, which allows Daniel Jones to operate an effective play-action game. The Colts also had 4 sacks, and a pick. Indianapolis was able to make the Titans largely one-dimensional as they held Tony Pollard to 2.8 yards per carry on his 16 attempts.

Vikings 48 Bengals 10 – Uh, I didn’t see this score coming. Quite the day for CB Isaiah Rodgers who had two defensive scores, and forced another fumble. Carson Wentz was an effective 14 for 20 and 2 scores. RB Jordan Mason chipped in with 116 yards on 16 carries. He also scored twice. Jake Browning isn’t going to be Joe Burrow, but he’s going to make some plays for Cincinnati. What he absolutely can’t do though is turn the ball over, and here had 2 picks. On top of his interceptions, the Bengals gave away 3 fumbles.

Steelers 21 Patriots 14 – Despite forcing 5 turnovers, Pittsburg was still tied with NE late into the 4th. The ultimate winning score coming on a 17 yard strike from Aaron Rodgers to Calvin Austin with 2:16 left. Just 139 yards passing for Rodgers. Drake Maye threw for 268, and he ran for 45; but he had a pick and a lost fumble. The lost fumble setting up Pittsburgh’s winning score. New England tried to answer, and reached the Steelers 28 before failing to convert 4th and 1. Pittsburgh had 5 sacks, 2 coming from TJ Watt.

Eagles 33 Rams 26 – Another good match-up between these teams, similar to their playoff game last January. This was a 26-7 Rams lead a minute into the 3rd Quarter. The Eagles didn’t quit, and they improved to 19-1 (including the playoffs) over their last 20 games. Puka Nacua had another big day, with 11 catches for 112 yards. Davonte Adams chipped in with 3 catches for 56 yards and a score. RB Kyren Williams had 94 yards on 20 carries. The Rams were also able to hold Saquon Barkley in check, limiting him to 46 yards on 18 attempts. Jalen Hurts had 3 TD’s passing, and another one on the ground. He found AJ Brown and Devonta Smith for a combined 14 receptions for 169 yards, and 2 scores. The Rams were up 26-21 with 8:46 left, when Jalen Carter blocked a FG.  The Eagles took over and put together a 17 play, 91 yard drive for the ultimate winning score. Now trailing 27-26, the Rams had a 10 play drive to set-up the potential winning FG as time expired. This attempt was also blocked, and this time was returned.  The Rams have to be kicking themselves for not being able to close this one out. Credit the Eagles for having the pride of a champ, and finding a way.

Bucs 29 Jets 27 – Another somewhat surprising game.  The Jets played with some pride in Week 1, and then rolled over in Week 2 and also lost Justin Fields to a concussion. When this game was 23-6 Bucs in the 4th, I wasn’t expecting a Jets rally. Instead, NY puts together two long scoring drives, and then gets the lead with 1:49 left after getting a FG block and a return.  Taking over down 1, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs go 48 yards over 7 plays, culminating in a 36 yard field as time ended for the game winner. Closer than it should have been for Tampa, but they found a way to win.  The Jets didn’t roll over which is a positive sigh for them. Less encouraging for the Jets is that Tyrod Taylor led NY in rushing.

Commanders 41 Raiders 24 – Without Jayden Daniels, DC was able to get a convincing win. That’s encouraging for DC. Marcus Mariota filled in capably.  The Commanders offense was balanced with 201 yards rushing, and 207 yards passing. Sometimes when teams have a player like Daniels, they become complacent waiting for their start to take games over. DC isn’t better with Mariota over Daniels, but the Commanders getting positive contributions from a number of guys on the roster is a good thing. The Washington defense came up with 5 sacks, 2 coming from Bobby Wagner. Vegas getting rolled when they didn’t have a turnover, and they received 3 TD’s from Geno Smith isn’t a great sign for them. One positive for the Raiders was that 3rd year WR Tre Tucker showed up with 145 yards receiving, and 3 td’s. Tucker had 47 catches last year, and is on pace for 74 here in ’25.

Panthers 30 Falcons – Okay, this is my surprise of the day. You could have convinced me that Atlanta would be flat, and lose a divisional game. You could have convinced me that the Panthers would play up for a week. You would not have convinced me that the Panthers would both put up 30, and hold Atlanta scoreless. That’s an unforgivably lackluster performance from Atlanta. Michael Penix had 2 picks, and there was also a fumble from Nathan Carter. Atlanta was also held to 5 of 16 on 3rd and 4th downs. So, kudos to the Carolina defense, but boo to Atlanta as a whole for not competing at all.

Jaguars 17 Texans 10 – A pretty significant loss for Houston, as they fell to 0-3.  0-3 meaning they’re 3 games behind the Colts, and they’ve also lost this initial head-to-head vs. Jacksonville. I like the Texans roster, but the anointing CJ Stroud received after his rookie season (’23) is feeling increasingly premature here in ’25. The Jags have some playmakers. It’s really just a matter of how consistent can Trevor Lawrence be?

Chargers 23 Broncos 20 – LA moves to 3-0, and Denver falls to 1-2.  Denver entered the season as the media darling everywhere. Most prognosticators were projecting Denver to finish ahead of LA in the AFC West. Lots of comments to be found of Denver being the tea AFC West team most likely to push the Chiefs in the division. Instead it’s the Chargers who are out of the gates quick. They’ve now beat each of their divisional foes to begin this season. Justin Herbert is playing at a high level.  He was sacked 5 times in this game though.  Also concerning for LA is that they’ve lost Najee Harris to an Achilles injury. Back-to-back weeks Denver has now lost in the final seconds.

Seahawks 44 Saints 13 – Seattle is pretty good, and New Orleans is not.  Despite the big margin, Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker was held to 38 yards on 16 carries after his 105 yard outing the week before. 2025 5th rounder Tory Horton had a 95 yard punt return for a TD, and also caught a TD from Sam Darnold.

Bears 31 Cowboys 14 – Caleb Williams put 4 TD’s against that incredibly soft Dallas defense. The Bears have plenty of weapons. If they aren’t a pushover defensively, and Williams progresses; they can be in a lot of games. Here vs. Dallas they got sacks from Montez Sweat and Dominque Robinson, and they also had 3 picks (2 from Tremaine Edmunds). D’Andre Swift ran for over 1,000 yards 2 years ago with Philadelphia, carrying a a hefty 4.6 yards per attempt average. That dropped to 3.8 last year in his first season with the Bears, and it’s at 3.5 this year through 3 games. See if the Bears can get a bit more out of him. It’s pretty bleak for Dallas overall, and they weren’t helped by CeeDee Lamb suffering an ankle injury. Watching Dallas, it feels like their only path to being a fringe Wild Card contender is monster production from Dax Prescott each week.

49ers 16 Cardinals 15 – San Francisco improved to 3-0, getting a home victory over their divisional rival. SF getting another win, with the injuries they’ve already dealt with – that’s pretty big. Unfortunately for them, they suffered another significant injury as DE Nick Bosa tore his ACL and is done for the year. 2024 1st rounder Ricky Pearsall stepped up with 117 receiving yards over 8 catches.  Mac Jones threw for 284 yards after throwing for 279 the week before. Jones apparently aggravated a knee injury, but it sounds like Brock Purdy is getting close. Christian McCaffrey didn’t do a whole lot on the ground (17 carries, 52 yards), but he had 10 receptions for 88 more.

Chiefs 22 Giants 9 – I thought it was smart that KC gave Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt a combined 20 carries, to hold down the Giants pass rush. Four different Chiefs had at-least 4 catches. Tyquan Thorton had a 33 yard grab, and Juju Smith-Schuster had a 27 yard reception. 2 sacks, and 2 picks for the KC Defense. Nobody would expect or ask for Russell Wilson to throw for 450 yards against the Chiefs like he did vs. Dallas the week prior, but 160 yards and 2 picks doesn’t cut it. The Giants did get a good game from Rookie RB Cam Skattebo, who had 60 yards rushing, and 61 yards receiving.

Week 4 Quick Hits: 

Thursday September 25th

Seattle at Arizona – Both of these NFC West teams enter this game at 2-1. The Cardinals are a slight favorite at home.

Sunday September 28th

Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh (Dublin) – Another pair of 2-1 teams, both coming off wins. The Vikings are a 2.5 point favorite, and given a 57% chance of winning.

DC at Atlanta – Daniels status for Sunday is to be determined. Washington a 2.5 point road favorite with Daniels status up in the air, and given a 59.2% chance of winning.

New Orleans at Buffalo – Buffalo is a 15.5 point favorite! Because this is the NFL, the Saints are given a 20.3% chance of getting the road win.

Cleveland at Detroit – Will be a short week for the Lions obviously. Cleveland will be feeling good about themselves after their comeback win over Green Bay. Could the Browns surprise NFC North teams in back-to-back weeks?

Carolina at New England – Two 1-2 teams. Carolina is 0-2 on the road, New England is 0-2 at home. The Patriots are 5.5 point favorites.

LA Chargers at NY Giants – The 3-0 Chargers arrive in New York to face the 0-3 Giants. If Wilson isn’t on here, this is a game where I could envision Jaxson Dart getting some time. LA hasn’t seemed super comfortable running the ball, and with Harris out, they’ve lost some depth in their backfield. LA would like to spread you out, and use their weapons at WR. Does that give the Giants D-Line some opportunities to get Herbert to the ground?

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay – Mike Evans suffered a low grade hamstring injury yesterday, and he’s probably out for a few weeks. Two 3-0 teams here. Eagles are a 3.5 point road favorite, and given a 54.4% chance of winning. Kyren Williams had some success running on the Eagles yesterday. Curious to see if Bucky Irving can as well.

Tennessee at Houston – Two 0-3 AFC South teams. A must win game for the Texans obviously.  Also needs to be a game where Stroud plays well.

Indianapolis at LA Rams – The 3-0 Colts head to LA, to face the 2-1 Rams. LA is a 3.5 point home favorite, and given a 57% chance of winning. The Rams were able to slow down Barkley. Can they do the same against Taylor?

Jacksonville at San Francisco – Is Purdy back? SF’s defense was a bit thin with Bosa, what does it look like without him? Can the Jags put up some points? Can Lawrence start to build some momentum, and get Jacksonville to 3-1?

Baltimore at Kansas City – Will be a short-week for the Ravens. KC’s offense will likely still be without Xavier Worthy.  Without that wideout to take the top off a defense, can the Ravens sit on everything underneath? The Ravens are without Likely, Ricard, Van Noy, and Madubuike tonight vs. Detroit. Are any of them available vs. KC?  Before tonight’s game is played, the Ravens are a 2.5 point favorite in KC, and given a 50.8% chance of winning.

Chicago at Vegas – Can the Bears build off of their win yesterday vs. Dallas? Does the offense start to look consistent?  Vegas had a disappointing outing vs. Washington. Do they rebound? Do they become non-competitive?

Green Bay at Dallas – Micah Parsons revenge game.  You can already picture NBC panning to Jerry Jones everytime Parsons does anything.  Green Bay can’t be feeling great today after giving that game away in Cleveland. That probably doesn’t bode well for the Cowboys.

Monday September 29th

NY Jets at Miami – The 0-3 Jets at 0-3 Miami. Quite the showcase. Who wants to finish 3rd in the AFC East?

Cincinnati at Denver – The Broncos defense needs to show up at home vs. Browning. The Broncos are 1-2.  They need this game. They’re currently a 7.5 point favorite, and given a 71.9% chance of defending their home field.

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