The 49ers are 6-0 after holding off Washington on Monday night, and the Chiefs and Vikings are the only other unbeaten teams. Seven underdogs won outright, including Arizona at 12.5 points in Los Angeles and Tennessee at 7 in Indianapolis, for the Titans’ first win. Jalen Hurts is expected to miss the rest of the season with blood clots in his lungs, and the Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard.

FTN’s defensive DVOA returns to the defensive line table this week. The quarterback list returns after Week 8.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 6 Recap

Seven of 14 games went to the underdog outright, including Arizona at 12.5 points and Tennessee at 7.

Lines are the ones we published before each game.

Broncos 17, Seahawks 14 (OT, Thursday)

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 40.5 · Our pick: Seahawks

Expected: Both teams were on a short week. Seattle’s backfield had been fumbling, and Charbonnet was out. Denver was without Surtain and, we expected, Riley Moss.

What decided it: Denver’s pass rush, and Seattle’s quarterback giving the ball away. The Broncos sacked Sam Darnold five times and hit him 17 times, and forced three turnovers. Ja’Quan McMillian intercepted Darnold on Seattle’s first overtime possession, and Wil Lutz kicked the 53-yard winner. Seattle’s one fumble came from a receiver, not the backfield: Nik Bonitto punched the ball from Rashid Shaheed. Denver won with 168 yards to Seattle’s 353; Bo Nix went 17 of 27 for 107. Seattle scored the last 11 points of regulation and tied it on Jason Myers’ 34-yarder with 3 seconds left. Denver played without Surtain and safety Talanoa Hufanga, both inactive; Moss was not among the inactives.

Texans 34, Jaguars 31 (London)

Box score · Line: Jaguars -3, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: Jacksonville’s red zone after 0 for 3 against the Eagles, against DeMeco Ryans’ defense; Anton Harrison’s knee; Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Houston debut; David Montgomery’s groin.

What decided it: Jacksonville fixed its red zone, and Ryans’ defense still didn’t hold. Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdown passes, and Houston allowed 30 points for the third time this season in Ryans’ first game back calling the defense. The Texans didn’t sack Lawrence once. C.J. Stroud threw three touchdowns, two to Foster Moreau. A too-many-men penalty on a Houston punt, Jacksonville’s third straight week of costly flags, kept one scoring drive alive. Travis Hunter caught a touchdown and intercepted Stroud in the end zone, setting up Cam Little’s 60-yard tying field goal. Stroud answered with a drive to Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 49-yarder at the gun. Harrison caught three passes for 34 yards. With Montgomery inactive, Woody Marks ran for 56.

Bears 31, Falcons 23

Box score · Line: Bears -3, 49.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: Caleb Williams’ return and Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs; Atlanta’s run defense after Baltimore ran for 208. Flips if Williams sits or Penix plays.

What decided it: Williams. Penix played, so half our condition came true, but Williams more than offset it. He completed his first 12 passes and finished 30 of 36 for 305 yards, and Chicago held the ball for more than 40 minutes. Kyler Gordon, activated from the physically unable to perform list the day before, had three sacks and two forced fumbles, the last ending Atlanta’s comeback with 2:54 left. Rookie Zachariah Branch lost two fumbles on returns. Chicago led 31-7 before Penix’s late touchdowns. The Bears overcame 12 penalties for 133 yards.

Browns 13, Ravens 10

Box score · Line: Ravens -4.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Ravens

Expected: Lamar Jackson’s ankle; Cam Jurgens’ debut at center against Verse and possibly Mason Graham; Cleveland’s eight sacks allowed, Howard and Concepcion.

What decided it: Jackson didn’t play, and neither did Jurgens; Vega Ioane started at center for a third straight week. Baltimore led 10-0 in the first quarter on Tyler Huntley’s fourth-down touchdown pass to rookie tight end Josh Cuevas and a Tyler Loop field goal, then didn’t score again. Cleveland held Derrick Henry to 58 yards on 17 carries, and Carson Schwesinger forced his fumble at the Baltimore 35 with 12:45 left; Audric Estime scored the tying touchdown four minutes later. After going 1 for 9 on third down through three quarters, the Browns converted 5 of 8 in the fourth, and Andre Szmyt won it from 37 yards at the gun, after a Ravens block of his earlier try was wiped out by an offside penalty. Huntley finished 19 of 31 for 165 yards. Baltimore sacked Deshaun Watson five times, with Trey Hendrickson back from finger surgery, and the teams finished two yards apart, 237 to 235. (Our full review)

Titans 26, Colts 20

Box score · Line: Colts -7, 44.5 · Our pick: Colts

Expected: A Titans offense averaging 10.4 points against a Colts offense that settles for field goals.

What decided it: Both halves of that came true, and the Colts still lost. Indianapolis outgained Tennessee 232-64 in the first half but led only 13-0 after two field goals. The Titans’ offense scored one touchdown; defense and special teams did the rest. Jeffery Simmons forced a fumble on the first play of the second half. Chimere Dike’s 58-yard punt return set up the tying score, and Oluwafemi Oladejo returned a blocked punt for the lead. Joey Slye kicked four field goals. Daniel Jones threw two interceptions in scoring position. It was Robert Saleh’s first win in Tennessee, and the Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard on Monday.

Patriots 26, Jets 19

Box score · Line: Patriots -7, 43.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: Bailey and the eight-sack front against a line possibly without Will Campbell; A.J. Brown’s possible return; New England’s thin cornerbacks.

What decided it: The Jets’ pass rush didn’t show up, and their offense stalled near the goal line. A week after eight sacks, New York had none, even as New England lost Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown to injuries during the game. Christian Gonzalez returned at cornerback, and the Patriots held the Jets to 0 for 3 in the red zone. Charles Woods intercepted Geno Smith in the fourth quarter, Smith’s first of the season. Drake Maye threw three touchdown passes. Brown’s return was rough: three catches for 27 yards on 10 targets, with three drops.

Saints 34, Giants 27

Box score · Line: Giants -1.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: A Giants run defense allowing 5.19 a carry against a Saints offense held to 142 yards; New York’s kicking; Tyler Shough’s hand.

What decided it: One kickoff return. The Giants led 10-0 late in the first half. After Daniel Carlson’s 58-yard field goal, Isaiah Stalbird forced Charlie Jones to fumble the kickoff, and New Orleans scored 34 straight points. Martin Emerson intercepted Jameis Winston twice, and Winston was benched for J.J. McCarthy, whose fourth-down throw into the end zone fell incomplete in the final seconds. Shough threw three touchdown passes and ran for another; he says his broken hand affects only handoffs. Cam Skattebo didn’t get a carry, and the Giants’ backs totaled 34 yards. The model was right.

Panthers 25, Eagles 14

Box score · Line: Eagles -1.5, 41.5 · Our pick: Panthers

Expected: Carolina’s passing offense against an Eagles defense that fades late, behind an offense with the most three-and-outs; Ekwonu and Moton back.

What decided it: Both held, and Jalen Hurts’ absence made it easier. Philadelphia had 37 yards in the first quarter and punted on its first five drives, then was shut out in the third quarter; it has six third-quarter points all season. Carolina pulled away in the second half. Bryce Young threw for 281 yards and two touchdowns to Tommy Tremble, and Chuba Hubbard ran for 120, including a 19-yard run on fourth-and-1. Tanner McKee went 26 of 45 for 215 yards. Carolina won despite a franchise-record 13 penalties for 149 yards.

Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 (OT)

Box score · Line: Steelers -3, 40.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: Irving and a 241-yard run game against Pittsburgh’s run defense; Mayfield not back before Week 7.

What decided it: Pittsburgh took away the run, and Tampa Bay’s rookie quarterback couldn’t make up for it. With no ground game, Jalon Daniels dropped back about 50 times in his third start, went 22 of 43 for 164 yards and was sacked six times. His two fourth-quarter interceptions set up field goals as Pittsburgh came back from 16-3. Aaron Rodgers, sacked five times through three quarters, led four fourth-quarter scoring drives and threw the winner to rookie Germie Bernard with 3:15 left in overtime. That touchdown tied him with Peyton Manning for third all time. Jalen Ramsey’s fourth-down sack ended it.

Cardinals 18, Rams 16

Box score · Line: Rams -12.5, 52.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: Arizona’s league-worst 8.5 net yards per pass allowed; the Rams’ kicking.

What decided it: The Rams’ kicking, though not the way we expected. New kicker Blake Grupe hurt his knee making a tackle on a first-quarter kickoff, which left the Rams going for two (they failed) and their punter kicking an extra point. The pass defense we worried about held Los Angeles to 286 yards, much of it by attacking the left side with Alaric Jackson suspended. The Rams didn’t sack Jacoby Brissett on 35 dropbacks and failed twice on fourth down. Matthew Stafford’s touchdown with 47 seconds left put them ahead. A long completion and an unnecessary-roughness penalty set up Chad Ryland’s sixth field goal at the gun.

Chiefs 22, Chargers 6

Box score · Line: Chiefs -8.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Chiefs

Expected: A pass rush that pressures without finishing, against four rookie linemen; Herbert’s turnovers.

What decided it: Kenneth Walker ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers, without Joe Alt, Kayode Awosika and Tre’ Harris, managed two field goals and 259 yards and lost Ladd McConkey to a concussion. Justin Herbert threw his league-leading eighth interception. The Kansas City pass rush finally finished, with four sacks to end a three-game sackless streak. Harrison Butker missed an extra point and a field goal. The Chiefs are 5-0; the Chargers are 0-6 heading into their bye.

Bills 33, Raiders 30

Box score · Line: Bills -6, 52.5 · Our pick: Bills

Expected: A Raiders run game held to 38 yards in New England; Buffalo’s thin cornerbacks; Spencer Brown’s back.

What decided it: Both concerns showed up, and Buffalo’s offense covered for them. Ashton Jeanty ran 10 times for 22 yards, but Kirk Cousins threw for 313 against the Bills’ secondary, and Las Vegas tied it at 23 with 8:07 left. Buffalo answered with a 66-yard drive capped by James Cook’s 3-yard run. Cook ran for 95 yards without a fumble, and the Bills had their first turnover-free game in a month. Josh Allen’s shovel pass to Keon Coleman tied Jim Kelly’s franchise touchdown record. The Raiders scored touchdowns on two of five red-zone trips.

Packers 23, Cowboys 13

Box score · Line: Packers -1.5, 52.5 · Our pick: Packers

Expected: Love’s deep ball against a Dallas defense allowing 72.3% completions and last against the run; no Parsons; Lamb’s quadriceps.

What decided it: Third downs, and Dak Prescott’s interceptions. Green Bay came in last in third-down conversions and Dallas last in third-down defense; the Packers converted nine of their first 10. Evan Williams and rookie Brandon Cisse intercepted Prescott on consecutive possessions inside the Green Bay 30, the second when Lamb slipped. Green Bay led 17-0 at half. Jordan Love threw for 276 yards and ran for a touchdown, and receivers dropped three more potential scores. The line was right.

49ers 23, Commanders 17 (Monday)

Box score · Line: 49ers -7.5, 50.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: Daniels’ scrambling against the defense that sacked Darnold five times; Washington’s second-half defense; Deebo Samuel’s hamstring.

What decided it: San Francisco’s first half, and Washington’s second-half defense, which held this time. The 49ers scored touchdowns on their first two drives, led 20-3 at half and outgained Washington 303-90 before the break. Brock Purdy went 21 of 29 for 264 yards, with a touchdown to George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey ran for two. After halftime San Francisco managed three first downs and 72 yards, and Jayden Daniels threw two touchdown passes to make it 23-17. Malik Mustapha broke up a fourth-down pass to Treylon Burks near the goal line with 1:54 left, and Washington’s last drive ended with an intentional grounding and a sack. Purdy passed 1,500 attempts and became the highest-rated passer in NFL history. With Deebo Samuel out, Mike Evans caught three passes for 94 yards before leaving with Achilles tendinitis; Terry McLaurin was carted off with a knee injury.

Power Rankings

The top two hold. The biggest moves are the Rams (down 6) and the Falcons (down 5), and the Browns (up 5). Our line rankings count here: both Rams lines rank in our top 11, which keeps a 2-4 team at 14, while both Packers lines rank in the bottom four, which holds a 4-2 team behind them.

DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 6. Outside rankings: ESPN, NFL.com and Pete Prisco, CBS Sports.

1. 49ers (1). 6-0, first in all four lists, and Brock Purdy is now the highest-rated passer in NFL history. They were held to 72 yards after halftime Monday, and Mike Evans left with Achilles tendinitis.
2. Chiefs (2). Kenneth Walker ran for 128 yards and the pass rush finally finished, with four sacks. Our second offensive line, but both starting tackles are hurt going to Seattle.
3. Bills (4). Up one. Seven scores on nine full drives in Las Vegas and their first turnover-free game in a month, behind our top offensive line. The defense has allowed 64 points in two weeks (Prisco).
4. Vikings (7). Up three on a bye at 5-0, now sixth in DVOA. Second on our defensive line list, 21st on offense.
5. Jaguars (3). Down two after losing in London. Still third in DVOA, but penalties have now cost them three touchdowns this season (Michael DiRocco, ESPN).
6. Patriots (9). Up three after a third straight win, but they finished Sunday without three offensive linemen and play Thursday in Chicago.
7. Broncos (11). Up four. Five sacks and three takeaways beat Seattle, and the offense is 31st on third down (ESPN).
8. Seahawks (5). Down three after a second loss in five days. Our top defensive line, but Sam Darnold has thrown seven interceptions in four games (Brady Henderson, ESPN).
9. Bears (13). Up four. Caleb Williams went 30 of 36 in his return, and Kyler Gordon had three sacks off the physically unable to perform list.
10. Ravens (6). Down four. Ten points in Cleveland without Lamar Jackson, and FTN gives them the hardest remaining schedule in the league.
11. Bengals (12). Up one on a bye. Fifth in DVOA and fifth on our offensive line list.
12. Lions (10). Down two on a bye, with both lines in our top 11. The defense is still the problem: 25th in defensive DVOA.
13. Panthers (16). Up three. Bryce Young and Chuba Hubbard beat a Hurts-less Eagles team, and Carolina is seventh in DVOA, though its defensive line is 30th.
14. Rams (8). Down six after losing at home to Arizona as 12.5-point favorites. Both lines rank in our top 11, which keeps them here, but Davante Adams is expected to miss 6 to 10 weeks (Prisco) and their new kicker hurt his knee.
15. Packers (17). Up two after a third straight win, allowing 14 points or fewer in each. Both lines rank in the bottom four, which holds them behind the Rams.
16. Texans (20). Up four. C.J. Stroud’s London drive kept them alive at 2-4; ninth in DVOA and fourth on our defensive line list.
17. Steelers (14). Down three despite winning: Aaron Rodgers was sacked five times in three quarters in Tampa before his late rally.
18. Browns (23). Up five. First place in the AFC North at 4-2 on Deshaun Watson’s fourth game-winning drive, behind our last-ranked offensive line.
19. Raiders (19). Held after a third straight loss. The line is back in our top 8; the run game isn’t.
20. Falcons (15). Down five. Down 31-7 at home to Chicago, with two lost return fumbles; third on our defensive line list.
21. Cowboys (18). Down three. Two more Dak Prescott interceptions, and the worst rushing start since 1989 (Todd Archer, ESPN).
22. Giants (21). Down one after blowing a 10-0 lead. John Harbaugh hasn’t named a starter between Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy.
23. Jets (26). Up three, mostly as others fell. Zero sacks a week after eight, and 0 for 3 in the red zone.
24. Buccaneers (25). Up one after another one-score loss, their fifth. Sixteenth in DVOA.
25. Eagles (22). Down three. Jalen Hurts is out for the season, and they have lost four straight.
26. Cardinals (29). Up three. Six Chad Ryland field goals beat the Rams in Los Angeles.
27. Saints (27). Held. Won in New York but nearly gave back a 24-point lead.
28. Colts (24). Down four. Lost at home to the winless Titans, and the general manager was fired Monday. Their defensive line ranks last.
29. Commanders (28). Down one. Came back to within six in San Francisco after trailing 20-3, and lost Terry McLaurin to what they fear is a significant knee injury.
30. Titans (31). Up one with their first win: six sacks, three takeaways and two special teams scores.
31. Chargers (30). Down one. 0-6 into the bye, with Justin Herbert’s league-high eighth interception.
32. Dolphins (32). Held. Bye, and still winless.

Offensive Lines

The Bills hold No. 1, the Chiefs pass the 49ers, and the Raiders return. The Lions drop out after their bye, and the Patriots are held out again, now for more than one injury. Each line is judged on the season: ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, sacks allowed and rushing, both measured against what its opponents’ defenses usually allow, and injuries that change who is available. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 6, rank in parentheses (ESPN). Sack rate is sacks per dropback; the figure in parentheses is the difference from what the same opponents’ defenses averaged (negative is better). YPC in parentheses is the difference from what those defenses allowed (positive is better). Opponent averages are from CBS Sports team stats and the Week 6 box scores, and include each opponent’s game against that team.

• Bills: second in run block win rate and third in pass block, and the second-best run game against expectation. Spencer Brown played through his back in Las Vegas.
• Chiefs: up one, with the best yards per carry in the league and a sack rate two points under what their opponents allow. Both starting tackles are the worry: Josh Simmons has a bulging disk and Jaylon Moore left Sunday with a concussion, and Andy Reid suggested Simmons won’t be ready for Seattle (Nate Taylor, ESPN).
• 49ers: second in pass block win rate and a 2.8% sack rate; down one only because Kansas City ran for 150 on Sunday.
• Rams: held, though Arizona went after backup left tackle David Quessenberry with Alaric Jackson suspended.
• Bengals: first in run block win rate, but 3.6 yards a carry is barely above what their opponents allow.
• Raiders: back in. First in pass block win rate with a low sack rate, but still 3.0 yards a carry, nearly a yard below expectation. Caleb Rogers replaced Jackson Powers-Johnson at right guard (Ryan McFadden, ESPN).
• Bears: down two after four sacks allowed in Atlanta; right guard Jonah Jackson left with a hip injury.
• Steelers: down one after five sacks allowed in Tampa.
• Out: Lions. Eleventh on the numbers, on bye.
• Held out by injury: Patriots, fifth on the numbers. Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown all left Sunday, after Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten went to injured reserve and with Will Campbell’s knee; New England has started three line combinations in six games and is likely to start a fourth Thursday (Mike Reiss, ESPN).
• First out: Patriots, Colts, Lions.
• Charting against results: Cowboys (2.8% sack rate, but 31st in run block win rate) and Browns (last; a 12.1% sack rate, the worst in the league).
• Watch in Week 7: the Chiefs’ tackles against Seattle’s front, first on our defensive list; the Patriots’ line on a short week; the length of Jackson’s suspension.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Defensive Lines

The top two hold, the Falcons climb, the Ravens return and the 49ers drop out. The same four measures apply: pass rush and run stop win rates, sacks against what opponents’ lines usually allow, and run defense against what those offenses usually gain, with injuries on top. FTN’s defensive DVOA is back in the table.

Sack rate is sacks per opponent dropback; in parentheses, the difference from what the same opponents’ lines allowed (positive is better). YPC allowed in parentheses is the difference from what those offenses gained (negative is better). Defensive DVOA is FTN’s through Week 6, rank in parentheses (FTN); negative is better, and it rates the whole defense, not only the line.

• Seahawks: first in pass rush win rate and a sack rate 2.5 points above expectation. The offense, not the front, lost in Denver.
• Vikings: bye. Minnesota blitzes on 68% of dropbacks, so some of its pressure is the coordinator’s.
• Falcons: up two, second in run stop win rate. Linebackers Kendal Daniels (neck) and Divine Deablo (arm) were hurt Sunday; neither is a lineman, but both play behind this front.
• Texans: down one after London, where they didn’t sack Trevor Lawrence (Lindsay Jones, the Ringer).
• Lions: bye; third in pass rush win rate. Detroit’s poor defensive DVOA is the secondary, not the front.
• Chargers: held. Third in run stop win rate on an 0-6 team; Bud Dupree (neck) was inactive.
• Ravens: back in, tenth and ninth in the win rates and above expectation on sacks.
• Broncos: held after five sacks and 17 quarterback hits Thursday (AP), without Pat Surtain II behind them.
• Out: 49ers. Tenth on the numbers, with Nick Bosa still out.
• Held out by injury: Browns, fifth on the numbers. Mason Graham has missed two straight games and Mike Hall Jr. was inactive again, though Maliek Collins has a sack in three straight (Daniel Oyefusi, ESPN).
• First out: Browns, 49ers, Rams (Myles Garrett still on injured reserve, and Kobie Turner and Poona Ford hurt Sunday).
• Giants: 27th on the numbers. Not restored on win rate alone.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Win Totals

The Bears move into the NFC field outright and the Rams drop to first out; the Ravens no longer win the AFC North alone. Dallas keeps the NFC East at 9-8. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 92 wins and that tie banked through Week 6. Kansas City, first team out in August, is still the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

• AFC seeds: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, then the AFC North winner; wild cards Patriots, Broncos and the AFC North runner-up; first out, the Steelers or Texans.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys; wild cards Bears, then the Lions and Seahawks; first out, the Rams or Packers.
• Ties we could not project: Baltimore and Cincinnati for the North; the order of the three AFC wild cards; the Lions and Seahawks for the sixth and seventh seeds; the Steelers and Texans, and the Rams and Packers, for first out.

What moved:

• Up: Texans +2 (two straight division wins, ninth in DVOA and fifth in FTN’s DAVE); Bears, Packers, Browns, Titans, Saints and Cardinals +1.
• Down: Eagles -1 (Jalen Hurts out for the season); Rams -1 (Davante Adams expected out 6 to 10 weeks, per Prisco); Ravens, Jaguars, Seahawks, Colts, Falcons and Chargers -1.
• Cowboys 9-8: held, and still the NFC East winner. ESPN’s Football Power Index makes Dallas a 66.9% favorite for the division at 2-4 (Ben Solak, ESPN).
• Ravens 10-7: depends on Lamar Jackson’s ankle, against the toughest remaining schedule by DVOA (FTN).

Calls most likely to need moving after Week 7:

• Bears 11-6 against the Patriots (10-7) on Thursday.
• Ravens 10-7 against the Bengals (10-7), with Jackson’s status unsettled.
• Seahawks 10-7 against the Chiefs on Sunday night.
• Lions 10-7 against the Packers (9-8).
• Browns 8-9 at Tennessee, and Rams 9-8 at Las Vegas (8-9).

Week 7 Preview

The line and the model split on three games; we take the line twice (Browns, Ravens) and the model once (Chiefs). Jacksonville, Buffalo, the Chargers and Washington are on bye.

Patriots at Bears (Thursday)

Line: Bears -3, 50.5 · ESPN: Bears 58.9%

Key to the Game: New England’s offensive line on a short week. Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown all left Sunday’s win with injuries, and Romeo Doubs left with a shoulder injury. Chicago’s defense just got Kyler Gordon back, and his nickel blitz produced three sacks in 16 snaps. On the other side, Caleb Williams is 54 of 60 on throws of 10 or fewer air yards this season (the Ringer), against a Patriots secondary with Christian Gonzalez back.

Our Pick: Bears.

Steelers vs. Saints (Paris)

Line: Steelers -3, 44.5 · ESPN: Steelers 60.1%

Key to the Game: Whether New Orleans can play four quarters. The Saints scored on five straight possessions against the Giants, then nearly gave back a 24-point lead. Pittsburgh is without receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson, so Aaron Rodgers is leaning on DK Metcalf and rookie Germie Bernard. Tyler Shough is playing through a broken nonthrowing hand, and right guard Cesar Ruiz left Sunday with a knee injury.

Our Pick: Steelers.

49ers at Falcons

Line: 49ers -4.5, 50.5 · ESPN: 49ers 79.4%

Key to the Game: Atlanta’s front against a 49ers team coming off Monday night. Michael Penix Jr. was pressured on 46% of his dropbacks against Chicago, and the Falcons lost linebackers Kendal Daniels (neck) and Divine Deablo (arm) during the game. San Francisco is thin at receiver: Mike Evans left Monday with Achilles tendinitis, with Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk already out (CBS Sports). The model is far more confident than the line, giving San Francisco about what it gave New England at -7 last week.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Browns at Titans

Line: Browns -1.5, 38.5 · ESPN: Titans 50.0%

Key to the Game: Tennessee’s defense against a Browns offense that wins late. The Titans had six sacks and three takeaways against Indianapolis, and Jeffery Simmons forced a fumble and had two sacks. Cleveland scored 13 points against Baltimore and won on Deshaun Watson’s fourth game-winning drive of the season. Mason Graham has missed two games; Maliek Collins has a sack in three straight.

Our Pick: Browns. The line over the model: ESPN calls it a coin flip, and Tennessee’s offense scored one touchdown last week.

Colts at Vikings

Line: Vikings -5.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Vikings 64.9%

Key to the Game: Daniel Jones’ turnovers. He is tied for the league lead with nine (ESPN), and two came in scoring position against Tennessee. Minnesota comes off its bye at 5-0, with a defense that blitzes on 68% of dropbacks. The Colts lost Sauce Gardner to a calf injury, played without Tyler Warren and fired their general manager on Monday.

Our Pick: Vikings.

Dolphins at Jets

Line: Jets -4.5, 38.5 · ESPN: Jets 65.5%

Key to the Game: The Jets’ red zone. New York went 0 for 3 inside the 20 against New England and has 112 points in six games. Miami is 0-5 and comes off its bye. A week after eight sacks, the Jets’ pass rush had none.

Our Pick: Jets.

Buccaneers at Panthers

Line: Panthers -3, 44.5 · ESPN: Panthers 63.2%

Key to the Game: Tampa Bay’s run game, which ranks 26th in success rate (the Ringer), against a Carolina offense that ran for 120 with Chuba Hubbard. Without a ground game, Jalon Daniels dropped back about 50 times in Tampa. Baker Mayfield’s thumb is the question to watch. Carolina needs to cut its 13 penalties, and Jaelan Phillips aggravated a hamstring injury.

Our Pick: Panthers.

Bengals at Ravens

Line: Ravens -3, 51.5 · ESPN: Bengals 54.3%

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s ankle. Without him, Baltimore scored 10 points in Cleveland, and Tyler Huntley went 13 of 24 for 107 yards over the last three quarters. Cincinnati comes off its bye, and Derrick Henry has fumbled four times since the start of last season (ESPN).

Our Pick: Ravens. The line over the model: the pick assumes Jackson plays, and flips to Cincinnati if he sits.

Giants at Texans

Line: Texans -10, 42.5 · ESPN: Texans 84.7%

Key to the Game: The Giants’ quarterback. John Harbaugh hasn’t said whether Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy starts after McCarthy threw for 243 yards in the fourth quarter. The Giants have fumbled in every game. C.J. Stroud now has Marvin Harrison Jr. alongside Jaylin Noel and Nico Collins, against a Giants secondary that lost Greg Newsome to a concussion.

Our Pick: Texans.

Broncos at Cardinals

Line: Broncos -4.5, 43.5 · ESPN: Broncos 69.8%

Key to the Game: Denver’s offense. The Broncos rank 26th in scoring and 31st on third down, and went 3 of 26 on third down across their last two games (ESPN). Arizona leads the league with seven fourth-down stops and just held the Rams to 286 yards. Jeremiyah Love (ankle) is the Arizona injury to watch.

Our Pick: Broncos. Denver’s defense has carried an offense that can’t move the ball, and Arizona’s defense just showed it can.

Packers at Lions

Line: Lions -3, 52.5 · ESPN: Lions 59.2%

Key to the Game: Detroit’s defense, worst in the league in EPA per drive allowed (the Ringer), against a Packers offense that dropped three potential touchdowns Sunday. Josh Jacobs comes off the commissioner’s exempt list. Green Bay has allowed 14 points or fewer in three straight games, and Detroit comes off its bye.

Our Pick: Lions. We are taking the home team off a bye, not a judgment that Detroit’s defense has been fixed.

Rams at Raiders

Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Rams 66.5%

Key to the Game: The Rams’ kicking again. Blake Grupe hurt his knee in his debut, five days after Harrison Mevis was cut. Their pass rush converts pressure into sacks at the second-worst rate in the league (Bill Barnwell, ESPN). Davante Adams is expected to miss 6 to 10 weeks (Pete Prisco, CBS Sports). Ashton Jeanty has been held under 3.0 yards a carry in four of six games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Chiefs at Seahawks

Line: Seahawks -2.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 52.2%

Key to the Game: Seattle’s protection. Denver hit Sam Darnold 17 times and sacked him five times, and Mike Macdonald said afterward his quarterback is getting hit far too often. Kansas City may start two undrafted rookie tackles, with Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore hurt (Nate Taylor, ESPN), against the front that tops our defensive line list. Kansas City’s pass rush ended its sackless streak with four against the Chargers, and Kenneth Walker leads the league in rushing. Seattle has had 10 days since Thursday.

Our Pick: Chiefs. The model over the line: Kansas City is 5-0 and Seattle has lost two straight, though Seattle’s defensive line was first on our list last week.

Cowboys at Eagles (Monday)

Line: Cowboys -4.5, 44.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 68.8%

Key to the Game: Tanner McKee. With Jalen Hurts expected to miss the season, McKee was pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks against Carolina. The Eagles have scored six third-quarter points all season. Dallas needs Dak Prescott to stop throwing interceptions: two more Sunday, after two in the second half of Week 5.

Our Pick: Cowboys.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. Backups went 0-4. Four backup quarterbacks started Sunday, and all four lost (the Ringer): Jalon Daniels in Tampa Bay, Tanner McKee in Philadelphia, Tyler Huntley in Baltimore and Jameis Winston for the Giants. Winston was the only one benched. With Hurts out for the season, Mayfield’s thumb unresolved and Jackson’s ankle still a question, at least three of those teams could start backups again in Week 7.

2. Penalties piled up on the winners. Carolina was flagged 13 times for 149 yards, a franchise record, and still won by 11. Chicago won through 12 penalties for 133 yards. Green Bay and Dallas combined for 22. Jacksonville’s too-many-men penalty on a punt extended a Houston touchdown drive, its third straight week of costly flags.

3. Winning without the offense. Arizona beat the Rams without a touchdown, on six Chad Ryland field goals. Tennessee’s offense scored one touchdown in a 26-point game. Denver won with 168 yards, its first win under 175 yards since 1983 (CBS Sports). All three leaned on defenses that forced turnovers or fourth-down stops.

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The 49ers are 5-0 after winning in Seattle, and no NFC East team won a game. Washington and the Giants tied 27-27 when the Commanders ran out the clock in field-goal range. The Eagles lost in London on a 57-yard kick after a kickoff Nick Sirianni said he should not have allowed. Dallas lost at home to a one-win team quarterbacked by an undrafted rookie.

The Vikings are also 5-0, and still seventh in DVOA. The Chargers, Titans and Dolphins are 0-5.

Two changes start this week. The line lists are now weekly and judged against what each opponent usually allows. The win totals now republish every week.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 5 Recap

Lines are the ones we published before each game.

Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16 (Thursday)

Box score · Line: Cowboys -8.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: Jalon Daniels’ second start, on a short week, against DVOA’s last-ranked defense, with Tyler Smith eligible to return.

What decided it: The matchup we named, but on the ground. Tampa Bay ran 39 times for 241 yards, 165 of them from Bucky Irving, whose 72-yard run on the first play of the second half set up the go-ahead touchdown. Daniels went 19 of 25 for 189 yards with no turnovers. Dallas gave the ball away three times: two Dak Prescott interceptions and a KaVontae Turpin fumble on a kickoff. Joey Porter Jr. was a late scratch.

Jaguars 19, Eagles 17 (London)

Box score · Line: Jaguars -6.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: An Eagles offense with no second-half points in two weeks against a defense third in DVOA with a nine-game interception streak, with Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson’s statuses to settle.

What decided it: A kickoff. Jake Elliott put Philadelphia ahead 17-16 from 48 yards with eight seconds left. The Eagles kicked a returnable ball, Ameer Abdullah brought it back 53 yards with a second left, and Cam Little made a 57-yarder as time expired. Sirianni said afterward that the decision cost his team the game.

Barkley and Smith were out, Johnson had retired, center Cam Jurgens had been traded and Drew Kendall was hurt. The Eagles ran 18 times for 22 yards. Jacksonville kept them close by going 0 for 3 in the red zone, missing an extra point with a backup long snapper and taking 13 penalties for 100 yards. The interception streak ended at nine games.

Bengals 31, Dolphins 24

Box score · Line: Bengals -7, 42.5 · Our pick: Bengals

Expected: Whether Ja’Marr Chase cleared the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins was available, and Miami’s pass rush after its first four sacks.

What decided it: Chase cleared and caught six passes for 77 yards, including a one-handed 45-yard touchdown. Joe Burrow threw four touchdown passes, and Jordan Battle intercepted Malik Willis on back-to-back second-quarter drives. Miami ran 34 times for 217 yards, but it did not sack Burrow.

Packers 31, Bears 7

Box score · Line: Bears -3, 45.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: The league’s best rushing offense against a defense without Edgerrin Cooper, and whether Green Bay’s protection in Tampa was real.

What decided it: The protection was real, and the run game wasn’t there. Without Kyle Monangai, Chicago ran 24 times for 81 yards. Jordan Love went 25 of 31 for 367 yards, with Christian Watson catching 143 yards and two touchdowns and Matthew Golden adding 123. The Bears turned the ball over five times, including on four straight second-half possessions.

Jets 17, Browns 12

Box score · Line: Jets -2.5, 39.5 · Our pick: Browns

Expected: Cleveland’s five-man pressure and man coverage against an offense that ran 32 plays a week earlier, and Mason Graham’s knee.

What decided it: The pressure, from the other side. The Jets sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, three by rookie David Bailey, and Graham was inactive. With Cleveland up 12-10, a high snap went through punter Corey Bojorquez’s hands in the rain. Braelon Allen scored from 22 yards three plays later, and Will McDonald’s strip-sack on fourth down ended it.

Texans 26, Titans 3

Box score · Line: Texans -6.5, 38.5 · Our pick: Texans

Expected: Houston’s secondary after two blown two-score leads, and Tennessee’s three straight close losses.

What decided it: Neither; it was never close. In DeMeco Ryans’ first game back calling the defense, Houston held Tennessee to 187 yards. Will Anderson Jr. had three of the four sacks, and two early turnovers became field goals. C.J. Stroud threw for 261 yards and a touchdown and ran for another.

Steelers 34, Colts 22

Box score · Line: Steelers -2.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: Daniel Jones’ turnovers against a defense missing Derrick Harmon and possibly Jamel Dean, and Pittsburgh’s rest against the Colts’ trip back from London.

What decided it: Jaylen Warren. Jones did not turn the ball over, but Warren had 188 total yards, including an 80-yard catch-and-run and a 50-yard touchdown run. Harmon and Dean were both out, and the Colts still ran 24 times for 66 yards. Spencer Shrader kicked five field goals as Indianapolis stalled in Pittsburgh territory.

Patriots 45, Raiders 17

Box score · Line: Patriots -3.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: The top pass-blocking line against the seventh-ranked pass rush, the Raiders’ run game with Ashton Jeanty’s ankle, and an early kickoff in the east.

What decided it: New England’s protection, not Las Vegas’. Drake Maye was sacked once and went 26 of 34 for 374 yards and four touchdowns, and ran for a fifth. The Patriots gained 536 yards. The Raiders ran 18 times for 38 yards, and Fernando Mendoza made his debut in the fourth quarter.

Vikings 23, Saints 13

Box score · Line: Vikings -1.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Vikings

Expected: DVOA’s 31st offense against its 31st defense, Justin Jefferson’s ankle, and the Saints’ run defense.

What decided it: Minnesota’s defense, which held New Orleans to 142 yards. Jefferson returned and caught a 15-yard touchdown after the Saints fumbled the second-half kickoff. The Vikings ran 36 times for 153 yards, and Will Reichard made all three of his field goals from 40 yards or more.

Giants 27, Commanders 27 (OT)

Box score · Line: Commanders -3.5, 43.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: Washington’s quarterback, with Jayden Daniels’ return unconfirmed, Marcus Mariota hurt and Athan Kaliakmanis next.

What decided it: Nothing did, though both teams had it won. Daniels returned in an elbow brace, ran for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns, and put Washington up 27-13 in the fourth quarter. Jameis Winston answered with two 17-yard touchdown passes, the second to Malik Nabers with 1:43 left. In overtime Cam Skattebo fumbled in field-goal range. Daniels then went down at the Giants’ 24 with 12 seconds left and no timeouts, and the clock ran out before Washington could spike it. Dominic Zvada made two of five field goals for New York.

Broncos 23, Chargers 17

Box score · Line: Broncos -3.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: A Chargers line 30th in pass block, possibly without Joe Alt, against Denver’s front, and Denver’s injured cornerbacks.

What decided it: The matchup we named. Alt and Rashawn Slater were out, four rookies started on the line, and Justin Herbert was sacked five times. Jim Harbaugh’s failed fourth-and-1 early in the fourth quarter led to the tying touchdown. Zach Allen’s strip-sack then set up Wil Lutz’s go-ahead field goal. Denver won without Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, in Sean Payton’s first game back calling plays.

Lions 45, Cardinals 21

Box score · Line: Lions -4.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: The league’s worst scoring defense against Jacoby Brissett after three interceptions.

What decided it: Detroit’s defense, which held an opponent under 30 points for the first time this season. After Arizona’s opening touchdown the Lions had five sacks and held the Cardinals to 18 carries for 56 yards. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Marvin Harrison Jr. was inactive ahead of his trade to Houston.

49ers 32, Seahawks 29

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 47.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: The line that had not allowed a sack against the pass rush that is first in win rate.

What decided it: San Francisco’s defense, more than its line. The streak ended, with Brock Purdy sacked three times. But the 49ers sacked Sam Darnold five times without Nick Bosa. Renardo Green intercepted him twice, and Gracen Halton returned a fumble for a touchdown at the end of the first half. Purdy led two fourth-quarter scoring drives, Mike Evans caught 113 yards, and Eddy Pineiro won it from 43 yards with 1:56 left.

Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT)

Box score · Line: Falcons -3, 43.5 · Our pick: Falcons

Expected: Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and Baltimore’s fourth center against the third-ranked pass rush.

What decided it: Jackson didn’t play, and Baltimore won by running the ball. Behind Tyler Huntley, the Ravens ran 35 times for 208 yards against the league’s best run defense, with Derrick Henry gaining 102 and Justice Hill 73 on four carries. Down 23-15 with 2:31 left, Huntley drove them to a touchdown with 40 seconds left, and Henry ran in the two-point try. Huntley scored from the 1 in overtime, and Kyle Hamilton intercepted Tua Tagovailoa, in for the injured Michael Penix Jr.

Bills 37, Rams 34 (OT, Monday)

Box score · Line: Rams -2.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: Two top-five quarterbacks who had been loose with the ball, Buffalo’s 26th-ranked defense without Ed Oliver, and Aaron Donald’s possible return.

What decided it: Special teams. Donald played and recovered James Cook’s fumble early in overtime, but Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis’ field goal. Josh Allen then scrambled for 19 and 13 yards, and Tyler Bass won it from 45 with 1:55 left. Allen ran for 121 of his 331 total yards, and Buffalo rushed for 234. Sean McVay said the kicking units cost the Rams the game.

Power Rankings

The Jaguars move ahead of the Seahawks, as we said they might after San Francisco at Seattle and the London game. From this week our offensive and defensive line rankings are a factor here: they move the Lions, Falcons and Texans up and the Packers, Panthers and Cowboys down. The biggest moves are the Packers (up 8), Patriots and Steelers (up 7) and Raiders (down 8).

DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 5. Outside rankings: ESPN, Nate Davis, USA Today and Pete Prisco, CBS Sports. USA Today stands in for NFL.com, whose rankings were not up at build time.

1. 49ers (1). Five sacks, a defensive touchdown and two interceptions won in Seattle without Nick Bosa. DVOA has them first by 22 points.
2. Chiefs (2). Bye. The winless Chargers come to Kansas City; the offensive line is third in our rankings, the defensive line 28th.
3. Jaguars (4). Up one, past Seattle, as flagged last week. DVOA has had them second for two weeks, though London was sloppy: 0 for 3 in the red zone and 13 penalties.
4. Bills (5). Won a shootout with the Rams in overtime without DJ Moore or Ed Oliver. Josh Allen ran for 121 yards, behind our top-ranked offensive line.
5. Seahawks (3). Down two after losing at home to the 49ers, with two Sam Darnold interceptions and more running-back fumbles. Still our top defensive line.
6. Ravens (6). Held. Won in Atlanta with Tyler Huntley and a 208-yard run game, and lead the AFC North alone.
7. Vikings (9). Up two at 5-0. The defense allows the fewest points in the league; DVOA still has them only seventh.
8. Rams (7). Down one. A 2-3 team that DVOA has 10th, beaten in overtime by its kicking game: Harrison Mevis has missed three field goals.
9. Patriots (16). Up seven. Drake Maye has eight touchdowns and two turnovers in two weeks, after one touchdown and seven turnovers in his first three games (CBS Sports).
10. Lions (14). Up four. Both lines rank in our top 10, the defense held an opponent under 30 for the first time, and Jared Goff has 13 touchdowns and no turnovers (USA Today).
11. Broncos (10). Down one, only because Detroit passes them. Five sacks and three takeaways won in Los Angeles.
12. Bengals (13). Up one. Fifth in DVOA, but they let Miami run for 217 yards before the bye.
13. Bears (8). Down five after five turnovers in Green Bay. Caleb Williams is back at practice.
14. Steelers (21). Up seven. Jaylen Warren has carried the offense since Rico Dowdle’s injury, behind a line that entered our top 8.
15. Falcons (18). Up three. Lost in overtime, but both lines rank in our top 10. Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs decide the next few weeks.
16. Panthers (15). Down one. Ninth in DVOA and atop the NFC South, but their defensive line ranks 30th.
17. Packers (25). Up eight. Jordan Love threw for 367 yards, but both lines rank in the bottom six, and Javon Hargrave’s Achilles is the second season-ending injury in the front seven in two weeks.
18. Cowboys (12). Down six after losing at home to Tampa Bay. Their defensive line ranks last, and the defense has five sacks and no interceptions this season.
19. Raiders (11). Down eight. Two straight losses since a 3-0 start, and 25th in DVOA.
20. Texans (23). Up three. Eleventh in DVOA at 1-4, with our third-ranked defensive line, and they added Marvin Harrison Jr.
21. Giants (20). Down one. They lead the NFC East at 3-1-1, but DVOA has them 27th.
22. Eagles (17). Down five after three straight losses. Lane Johnson retired and Cam Jurgens was traded in the same week.
23. Browns (19). Down four. Eight sacks allowed to the Jets, and they have been outscored over a 3-2 start.
24. Colts (22). Down two. They lead the league in field-goal attempts because drives stall.
25. Buccaneers (29). Up four. Jalon Daniels’ first win, and 12th in DVOA.
26. Jets (26). Held. Eight sacks, three by rookie David Bailey.
27. Saints (24). Down three after a third straight home loss and 142 total yards.
28. Commanders (27). Down one. A tie that felt like a loss.
29. Cardinals (28). Down one. They have allowed 30 or more in four straight games and traded Harrison.
30. Chargers (30). Held. Thirteen turnovers, most in the league, and four rookies on the line.
31. Titans (31). Held. Three points and 187 yards against Houston.
32. Dolphins (32). Held. Willis threw two interceptions to a safety who said he had read his tell.

Offensive Lines

The Bills move to No. 1, the Chiefs and Bears climb, the Steelers enter, and the Raiders drop out. Each line is judged on the season: ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, sacks allowed and rushing, both measured against what its opponents’ defenses usually allow, and injuries that change who is available. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 5, rank in parentheses. Sack rate is sacks per dropback; the figure in parentheses is the difference from what the same opponents’ defenses averaged (negative is better). YPC in parentheses is the difference from what those defenses allowed (positive is better). Opponent averages are from CBS Sports team stats and include each opponent’s game against that team.

• Bills: the best run game against expectation in the league, and second in both win rates, against a schedule of pass rushes tougher than average. Spencer Brown, 91% in pass block win rate, hurt his back Monday.
• 49ers: three sacks allowed all season, all of them in Seattle. The run game is above average rather than dominant, which is the gap to Buffalo.
• Chiefs: third in run block win rate and 5.5 yards a carry, with four games played.
• Bears: fourth in pass block win rate against one of the tougher pass-rush schedules. The four sacks at Green Bay came with backup quarterbacks.
• Steelers: in on balance, eighth and ninth in the win rates, after allowing five sacks in Cleveland in Week 4.
• Lions: third in pass block, but 22nd in run block and slightly below expectation on the ground.
• Out: Raiders. First in pass block win rate, but 3.0 yards a carry is a full yard below what their opponents allow, against the easiest pass rushes anyone has faced.
• First out: Patriots (seventh on the numbers; left tackle Will Campbell’s knee injury keeps them out), Falcons, Raiders.
• Charting against results: Ravens (13th; 208 rushing yards in Atlanta, but 7.4% sack rate) and Packers (last in pass block win rate, yet a sack rate better than their opponents allow).
• Watch in Week 6: Brown’s back at Las Vegas; Campbell’s status against the Jets’ eight-sack front; Cam Jurgens’ debut at center for Baltimore.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Defensive Lines

The Texans, Lions and Chargers enter, and the Rams, Ravens and Patriots drop out. The same four measures apply: pass rush and run stop win rates, sacks against what opponents’ lines usually allow, and run defense against what those offenses usually gain, with injuries on top. FTN’s public listing has total DVOA only this week, so defensive DVOA is held for next week.

Sack rate is sacks per opponent dropback; in parentheses, the difference from what the same opponents’ lines allowed (positive is better). YPC allowed in parentheses is the difference from what those offenses gained (negative is better).

• Texans: the biggest sack rate above expectation in the league, and the second-best run defense against expectation. Will Anderson Jr. had three sacks in Tennessee. Their win rates lag the results.
• Lions: third in pass rush win rate, and sacking quarterbacks well above what their lines allow. Detroit’s poor scoring defense has been the secondary, not the front.
• Falcons: fourth and seventh in the win rates, though the sacks lag. Jalon Walker (ACL) and James Pearce Jr. (suspension) are out, and Za’Darius Smith was in the concussion protocol.
• Chargers: first in run stop win rate and above expectation on sacks, on an 0-5 team. Bud Dupree left Week 5 with a neck injury.
• 49ers: down two. Even after five sacks in Seattle, their season sack rate is only about what their opponents’ lines usually allow. Nick Bosa’s calf is the injury to watch.
• Broncos: a sack rate two points above expectation, but run defense slightly below; held at eighth.
• Out: Rams. Twelfth on the numbers. Myles Garrett is on injured reserve and not expected to start practicing this week.
• Out: Ravens. Tenth, and exactly at expectation on sacks without Trey Hendrickson.
• Out: Patriots. Thirteenth, 25th in run stop win rate.
• First out: Browns (seventh on the numbers, but Mason Graham is week to week and Mike Hall Jr. was inactive), Jaguars (the best run defense in yards per carry, 31st in run stop win rate), Jets.
• Giants: 22nd on the numbers. Not restored on win rate alone.
• Scheme caveat: Minnesota blitzes on 68% of dropbacks, so some of its pressure is the coordinator’s.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Win Totals

The Patriots move into the AFC field and the Raiders drop out of it; Dallas keeps the NFC East at 9-8. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 78 wins and that tie banked through Week 5. Kansas City, first team out in August, is still the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

• AFC seeds: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, Ravens; wild cards Broncos, Bengals, Patriots; first out, Steelers.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys; wild cards Seahawks, then two of the Lions, Bears and Rams; first out, the third of those.
• Ties we could not project: Buffalo and Jacksonville; the three AFC wild cards; the Lions, Bears and Rams.

What moved:

• Up: Buccaneers +2 (first win, 12th in DVOA, Baker Mayfield due back); Vikings, Patriots, Lions, Packers, Steelers and Texans +1.
• Down: Raiders -2 (two straight losses, 25th in DVOA); Cowboys, Eagles, Bears, Browns, Rams, Falcons and Saints -1.
• Eagles 8-9: the line lost Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens in one week, and the offense has the most three-and-outs in the league (ESPN).
• Falcons 8-9: depends on Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs; FTN projects 8.1 wins.
• For comparison, FTN’s simulation gives Dallas a 37.2% chance at the NFC East and Carolina 46.1% in the South (FTN playoff odds).

Calls most likely to need moving after Week 6:

• Cowboys 9-8 at Green Bay (8-9), with the Giants hosting the Saints and the Eagles hosting Carolina.
• Bears 10-7 at Atlanta (8-9), with Caleb Williams and Penix both uncertain.
• Seahawks 11-6 at Denver (10-7) on a short week.
• Patriots 10-7 against the Jets, and Raiders 8-9 against Buffalo.
• Texans 7-10 against the Jaguars (12-5) in London.

Week 6 Preview

The line and the model split on three games, all with a road team favored by ESPN and the home team by 1.5 points; we took the line twice (Giants, Packers) and the model once (Panthers). The Bengals, Dolphins, Vikings and Lions are on bye.

Seahawks at Broncos (Thursday)

Line: Seahawks -3, 40.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 52.1%

Key to the Game: Both teams played Sunday. Seattle’s backfield has lost two more fumbles and won’t have Zach Charbonnet. Denver’s offense has needed its defense to set up short fields, and the Broncos are still without Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss.

Our Pick: Seahawks. The better defense on a short week, though Sam Darnold’s interceptions make this close.

Texans vs. Jaguars (London)

Line: Jaguars -3, 42.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 58.8%

Key to the Game: Jacksonville’s red zone after going 0 for 3 against the Eagles, against a Houston defense with DeMeco Ryans calling it again. Left tackle Anton Harrison was carted off in London. Marvin Harrison Jr. could debut for Houston, and David Montgomery hurt his groin.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Bears at Falcons

Line: Bears -3, 49.5 · ESPN: Bears 60.1%

Key to the Game: Two quarterbacks: Caleb Williams is back at practice from his hamstring, and Michael Penix Jr. is hurt in his ribs. Atlanta’s run defense was the league’s best until Baltimore ran for 208 yards.

Our Pick: Bears. The pick assumes Williams plays and Penix doesn’t; reverse either and this flips.

Ravens at Browns

Line: Ravens -4.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Ravens 65.8%

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and Cam Jurgens’ debut at center against a Cleveland front with Jared Verse and possibly Mason Graham. The Browns allowed eight sacks in New York and may be without right tackle Tytus Howard and receiver KC Concepcion.

Our Pick: Ravens.

Titans at Colts

Line: Colts -7, 44.5 · ESPN: Colts 72%

Key to the Game: A Tennessee offense averaging 10.4 points against an Indianapolis offense that settles for field goals. The Colts lead the league in field-goal attempts.

Our Pick: Colts.

Jets at Patriots

Line: Patriots -7, 43.5 · ESPN: Patriots 78.9%

Key to the Game: David Bailey and an eight-sack Jets front against a New England line that may be without left tackle Will Campbell. A.J. Brown could return for the Patriots, whose cornerback room is down to a few healthy players.

Our Pick: Patriots.

Saints at Giants

Line: Giants -1.5, 45.5 · ESPN: Saints 54.1%

Key to the Game: A Giants run defense allowing 5.19 yards a carry, 30th in the league, against a Saints offense held to 142 yards. New York’s kicking cost it a win in Washington, and Tyler Shough is playing with a hurt non-throwing hand.

Our Pick: Giants. The line over the model: the Saints have lost three straight and rank 30th in DVOA.

Panthers at Eagles

Line: Eagles -1.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Panthers 50.5%

Key to the Game: Carolina’s top-ranked passing offense against an Eagles defense that has worn down in fourth quarters, behind an offense with the most three-and-outs in the league. The Panthers start two backup cornerbacks, but Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton are due back from the bye.

Our Pick: Panthers. The model over the line: Philadelphia has lost three straight and two starting linemen in a week.

Steelers at Buccaneers

Line: Steelers -3, 40.5 · ESPN: Steelers 59.4%

Key to the Game: Bucky Irving and a Tampa Bay run game that just gained 241 yards, against Pittsburgh’s run defense. Baker Mayfield is not expected back until Week 7 at the earliest.

Our Pick: Steelers.

Cardinals at Rams

Line: Rams -12.5, 52.5 · ESPN: Rams 87.1%

Key to the Game: Arizona allows a league-worst 8.5 net yards per pass attempt. The Rams’ kicking game is the one thing that has cost them close games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Chargers at Chiefs

Line: Chiefs -8.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 74.3%

Key to the Game: A Kansas City pass rush that pressures without finishing, against a Chargers line of four rookies. Justin Herbert has turned the ball over in five straight games.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Bills at Raiders

Line: Bills -6, 52.5 · ESPN: Bills 69.7%

Key to the Game: A Raiders run game that gained 38 yards in New England, against a Buffalo defense thin at cornerback. Right tackle Spencer Brown hurt his back Monday.

Our Pick: Bills.

Cowboys at Packers (Sunday night)

Line: Packers -1.5, 52.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 52.1%

Key to the Game: Jordan Love’s deep ball against a Dallas defense allowing 72.3% completions and last against the run. Micah Parsons won’t play, and CeeDee Lamb left Thursday with a quadriceps injury.

Our Pick: Packers. The line over the model: Dallas’ defense has given us no reason to trust it on the road.

Commanders at 49ers (Monday)

Line: 49ers -7.5, 50.5 · ESPN: 49ers 82.6%

Key to the Game: Jayden Daniels’ scrambling against a 49ers defense that just sacked Sam Darnold five times, and a Washington defense that has allowed 20 or more second-half points in four straight games. Deebo Samuel hurt his hamstring in Seattle.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

Four head coaches blamed themselves. Nick Sirianni (the London kickoff), Jim Harbaugh (the fourth-and-1), Sean McVay (a conservative third-down call before the blocked field goal) and Dan Quinn (the overtime clock) all took the loss, or the tie, on themselves. Three of the four games were decided by three points or fewer.

Special teams decided four games. A 53-yard kickoff return and a 57-yard field goal in London, a fumbled punt snap in New Jersey, a blocked field goal in Los Angeles, and a 2-of-5 kicking day in Washington. Green Bay’s Trey Smack also missed two field goals and an extra point in a 24-point win.

Two head coaches took back the play calls, and both won. Sean Payton took Denver’s offense back from Davis Webb, and DeMeco Ryans took Houston’s defense back from Matt Burke. The Texans held Tennessee to 187 yards. Denver’s offense looked much as it had under Webb (Ringer Staff), and Seattle arrives Thursday.

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Three teams are unbeaten after four weeks, and they got there three different ways. San Francisco has not allowed a sack all season, Kansas City has the league’s leading rusher in Kenneth Walker III, and Minnesota has scored one offensive touchdown since Week 1.

Eleven of the 16 games finished within one score, per NFL.com. Three were fourth-quarter comebacks by teams facing 1-3: the Rams in Philadelphia, the Cowboys in Houston and the Patriots in Buffalo. Houston, Tampa Bay, the Chargers, Tennessee and Miami are 0-4.

There were injuries to some of the biggest names. Lamar Jackson (ankle), Ja’Marr Chase (concussion), Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Patrick Surtain II (ankle) all left games, and Washington lost a second quarterback in three weeks.

Week 4 Review

Each game lists the line, our pick, what we expected to decide it and what did. Lines are DraftKings from late in the week, via ESPN’s Week 4 preview, with our published line in parentheses where it moved. [LINE TK] marks a kickoff line we don’t have.

Thursday

Browns 27, Steelers 24

Deshaun Watson led a go-ahead fourth-quarter drive for the third straight week, and Andre Szmyt’s career-long 56-yard field goal won it with 10 seconds left. Cleveland led 21-7 late in the first half before Pittsburgh tied it at 24 with 1:44 to play.

The Browns sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and hit him 10 times. Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions, the second on a Hail Mary. Cleveland is 3-1 for the first time since 2001.

Steelers -2.5 when we published), total 37.5. ESPN had Pittsburgh at 55.4%. Our Pick: Steelers.

Expected: Pittsburgh’s rebuilt right side against Cleveland’s disguised pressure and Mason Graham. What decided it: The pressure, without Graham, who left in the first quarter with a knee injury. Mike McCarthy described five-man pressure with man coverage from the start, and Pittsburgh’s protection never solved it.

London

Colts 30, Commanders 13

Washington led 6-0 when Marcus Mariota was sacked on third down and left with a right knee injury. Dan Quinn said it looks like an MCL. Seventh-round rookie Athan Kaliakmanis played the rest and went 15 of 33 with a 47-yard touchdown and an interception.

Jonathan Taylor ran for 95 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts won despite two Daniel Jones turnovers and 143 passing yards. Jayden Daniels (elbow) and Terry McLaurin (hamstring) were inactive.

Colts -3.5 late in the week (-3 when we published), total 47.5. ESPN had Indianapolis at 53.9%. Our Pick: Colts.

Expected: Whether Daniels would play, and whether Washington could score without takeaways. What decided it: Daniels didn’t play, and Washington was on its third quarterback after two drives. The Commanders settled for field goals on two red-zone trips before the injury and scored once after it.

Sunday Early

Patriots 29, Bills 26

Drake Maye had two first-half turnovers, then threw three touchdown passes. The last was a one-handed catch by Efton Chism III with 1:50 left, at the end of a 73-yard drive that began with New England down five.

Josh Allen’s deep throw for Joshua Palmer was intercepted by Craig Woodson on the next drive. Buffalo blitzed Maye 15 times, and he went 9 of 14 for 118 yards and all three touchdowns against it, per Bill Barnwell of ESPN. Mike Vrabel went for it twice on fourth down in field-goal range, and both drives ended in touchdowns.

Bills -6.5 late in the week (-7 when we published), total 48.5. ESPN had Buffalo at 71%. Our Pick: Bills.

Expected: Maye’s turnovers without A.J. Brown. What decided it: Maye had two turnovers and won anyway, because Allen had the one that mattered. New England played without Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore, and Buffalo lost DJ Moore and Ed Oliver during the game.

Bears 23, Jets 12

Chicago ran 89 plays to New York’s 32, held the ball for nearly 43 minutes and did not punt. Its 34 first downs outnumbered the Jets’ plays, which had not happened in the NFL since 1999.

Kyle Monangai carried 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns. Tyson Bagent threw for a career-high 268 yards after Case Keenum took a ceremonial first snap. The Jets went 0 for 7 on third down, though Minkah Fitzpatrick ended their record 20-game interception drought.

Bears -3.5 late in the week (-3 when we published), total 43.5 (42.5 when we published). ESPN had Chicago at 66.2%. Our Pick: Bears.

Expected: Keenum or Bagent without left tackle Braxton Jones, and Geno Smith’s form. What decided it: Neither quarterback question. Chicago ran for 232 yards, per CBS Sports’ Week 4 grades, and Smith had the ball for 17 minutes.

Jaguars 22, Bengals 17

Jacksonville stopped Chase Brown a yard short on fourth-and-10 with 50 seconds left. Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards but had two interceptions, one returned 45 yards to set up a touchdown and one in the red zone.

Trevor Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 227 yards and beat Cincinnati for the first time in four tries. The Bengals lost Ja’Marr Chase to a concussion in the second quarter and ran for 23 yards. The officials called 24 penalties for 244 yards.

Bengals -2.5, total 51.5. ESPN had Jacksonville at 55%. Our Pick: Jaguars.

Expected: DVOA’s No. 2 team against a defense that had just allowed 411 yards. What decided it: Jacksonville’s defense, not Cincinnati’s. The Jaguars gave up 428 passing yards and still made two red-zone stops, and their interception streak reached nine games, a franchise record.

Giants 36, Cardinals 24

Arizona led 14-3 after 12 minutes and gained 138 yards the rest of the way. Jameis Winston threw three touchdown passes and two interceptions, and Malik Nabers caught six passes for 112 yards.

Jacoby Brissett threw three interceptions. Deonte Banks returned the last one 98 yards for a touchdown on the final play. The Giants are alone in first place in the NFC East.

Cardinals -2.5 late in the week (-1.5 when we published), total 44.5. ESPN had Arizona at 55.1%. Our Pick: Cardinals.

Expected: The Giants’ defense without Brian Burns. What decided it: That defense. It intercepted Brissett three times, got a first career interception from rookie Arvell Reese, and ended a game with a red-zone interception for the second straight week.

Rams 24, Eagles 20

Philadelphia led 20-10 with fourth-and-goal at the 2 midway through the fourth quarter, went for it and threw incomplete. The Rams then drove 98 and 79 yards for Kyren Williams touchdowns, the second with 1:10 left.

The Eagles went 0 for 12 on third down and gained 172 yards. They played without DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Lane Johnson, then lost Saquon Barkley to a hamstring injury in the first quarter. Matthew Stafford threw two more interceptions and has six.

Rams -3 late in the week (-1.5 when we published), total 43.5 (46.5 when we published). ESPN had the Rams at 56.6%. Our Pick: Rams.

Expected: Puka Nacua’s return, and an Eagles team that was 22nd in DVOA with no takeaways. What decided it: Nacua caught nine passes for 125 yards, most of it after halftime. The Eagles got their first two takeaways and still lost, because the Rams blitzed Jalen Hurts on half his dropbacks and he went 5 of 16 against it, per Barnwell.

Packers 17, Buccaneers 14

Jordan Love threw two short touchdown passes, and Green Bay survived two fourth-quarter turnovers deep in Tampa Bay territory. Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie making his first start, threw two interceptions that became 10 Packers points.

Love was hit twice after taking 31 hits in three games, with Laken Tomlinson the fourth player to start at left guard. Todd Bowles passed up a 65-yard field goal try on the Buccaneers’ last possession. Green Bay lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper to an Achilles injury.

Packers -3.5, total 38.5 (39.5 when we published). ESPN had Tampa Bay at 53.9%. Our Pick: Packers.

Expected: Daniels behind a line that had allowed six sacks. What decided it: Daniels’ two interceptions. The surprise was the other line: Green Bay’s, last in pass block win rate, kept Love clean.

Ravens 24, Titans 18

Baltimore led 24-7 at halftime on Lamar Jackson’s 222 yards and two touchdown passes, plus Tyler Loop’s 64-yard field goal on the last play of the half. Jackson hurt his left ankle on the snap before the kick and did not return.

Tyler Huntley went 8 of 9 for 63 yards, and the Ravens did not score again. Tennessee was stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 2, lost a Carnell Tate fumble and scored late to get within six. Baltimore had 13 penalties for 131 yards.

Ravens -11.5, total 42.5 (43.5 when we published). ESPN had Baltimore at 83.3%. Our Pick: Ravens.

Expected: Baltimore’s center position, and whether it let Tennessee hang around. What decided it: The first half. The line question got worse: the Ravens are down to their fourth option at center and their third at right guard, per ESPN’s Jamison Hensley.

Cowboys 34, Texans 30

CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards, the last a 12-yard touchdown in the final minute. Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and went 8 of 11 on the 74-yard winning drive, per Barnwell.

Houston led 16-6 at halftime and 23-13 in the third quarter. Javonte Williams ran for three second-half touchdowns, and Kamari Lassiter gave up a 53-yard catch and two penalties on one drive. C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards, and Nico Collins returned with 118 yards and two touchdowns.

Texans -3 late in the week (-2.5 when we published), total 48.5 (47.5 when we published). ESPN had Dallas at 55.5%. Our Pick: Texans.

Expected: Dallas’ travel from Rio, and DVOA saying Houston was better than 0-3. What decided it: Houston’s coverage. Every one of Lamb’s catches came against zone, per Barnwell. The Texans press on 25% of snaps after 56% last season, per ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime.

Sunday Late

Vikings 15, Dolphins 10

Will Reichard kicked five field goals, and Minnesota is 4-0 without an offensive touchdown in its last two games. T.J. Hockenson caught 13 passes for 119 yards and slid short of the goal line on the last one to run out the clock.

Miami had 76 yards at halftime, then got a 53-yard Ollie Gordon run and a Gordon touchdown to make it 12-10. A 68-yard Malik Willis touchdown pass was wiped out by an illegal-touching penalty. The Vikings held the ball for 14 of the final 15 minutes.

Vikings -10.5 late in the week (-10 when we published), total 38.5. ESPN had Minnesota at 82.4%. Our Pick: Vikings.

Expected: Minnesota’s pass rush against Willis, without De’Von Achane. What decided it: That, barely. Willis went 9 of 17 for 85 yards and lost a fumble on one of Dallas Turner’s two sacks. Kyler Murray was sacked four times by a defense that had no sacks all season.

Chiefs 30, Raiders 27

Kenneth Walker III ran for 177 yards and two touchdowns, including a 76-yard run that set up Kansas City’s first lead. Las Vegas led 19-17 with 4:53 left. Tyquan Thornton’s 55-yard catch set up Walker’s go-ahead score, and a fumbled kickoff handed Walker another.

Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns and was intercepted near midfield at the end. Thornton dislocated his left ankle on the long catch, and Rashee Rice left with a hamstring injury.

Chiefs -4.5 late in the week (-5.5 when we published), total 47.5. ESPN had Kansas City at 70.2%. Our Pick: Chiefs.

Expected: Las Vegas’ takeaways and sacks against Walker and Patrick Mahomes. What decided it: Walker, and a takeaway going the other way. The Raiders ran for 72 yards at 2.8 a carry. Klint Kubiak also took a field goal off the board for a fourth-and-2 that failed, per the Ringer Staff.

49ers 24, Broncos 14

San Francisco had three points on its first seven possessions, then scored touchdowns on three straight after Marvin Mims Jr. fumbled a punt return. George Kittle’s 56-yard touchdown on a screen with 2:15 left answered Denver’s only touchdown.

Brock Purdy went 19 of 30 for 218 yards with no sacks and no turnovers. Denver finished without both starting cornerbacks, Patrick Surtain II (ankle) and Riley Moss (ribs).

49ers -3, total 47.5 (46.5 when we published). ESPN had San Francisco at 77.6%. Our Pick: 49ers.

Expected: San Francisco’s injuries against Denver’s slow starts, with the 49ers facing the real opponent our rankings discount was waiting for. What decided it: Denver’s slow start held: three first-half points, and 13 in four first halves. The 49ers passed the test without Nick Bosa, and the discount is gone.

Seahawks 30, Chargers 23

Both teams threw an interception on their first play from scrimmage. Seattle led 27-6 in the third quarter and sealed it when Justin Herbert was sacked and fumbled in the final two minutes.

Herbert threw two interceptions and was sacked four times, and Joe Alt left in the second quarter with a neck injury. The teams combined for 30 penalties and 280 yards. Seattle’s 150 penalty yards set a franchise record.

Seahawks -7 late in the week (-6.5 when we published), total 42.5 (43.5 when we published). ESPN had Seattle at 73.8%. Our Pick: Seahawks.

Expected: Seattle’s turnovers against a defense that had forced five. What decided it: The other team’s turnovers. Los Angeles gave the ball away four times, including a muffed punt that Seattle turned into a touchdown on the next play.

Sunday Night

Panthers 32, Lions 26

Bryce Young completed his first 11 passes and finished 29 of 41 for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards, both career highs, and Chuba Hubbard ran for 122 yards and two scores.

Jared Goff threw for 412 yards, but Detroit could not get a first down on its last drive, which started at its 13 with 2:12 left. Carolina played without Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, both starting cornerbacks and both starting tackles.

Lions -3.5, total 51.5 (50.5 when we published). ESPN had Detroit at 61.9%. Our Pick: Lions.

Expected: Carolina without Coker, and how much Detroit got from Jahmyr Gibbs. What decided it: Young had the best EPA per dropback of any quarterback in Week 4, per the Ringer Staff, and Gibbs was held to 77 yards from scrimmage.

Monday Night

Falcons 45, Saints 24

Bijan Robinson scored from 59 yards on Atlanta’s third play and finished with 145 yards and two touchdowns. Brian Robinson Jr. added three short touchdowns, and the Falcons outrushed New Orleans 205 to 50.

Michael Penix Jr. went 15 of 20 for 223 yards and a touchdown. Atlanta has scored 80 points in two games since he returned. The Saints missed a field goal and lost a fumble at their own 22 while falling behind 14-0.

Saints -2.5, total 47.5 (48.5 when we published). ESPN had New Orleans at 62.6%. Our Pick: Saints.

Expected: Penix’s second game against the Saints’ turnovers. What decided it: The run game. Penix was clean, the turnover that mattered was New Orleans’, and the Saints have allowed almost 600 rushing yards in four games, per Fox Sports.

Power Rankings

San Francisco is first on all five lists, ours included. Pre is our preseason rank, and last week’s rank is in parentheses in each note. The outside columns are FTN’s DVOA, ESPN, NFL.com and Pete Prisco of CBS Sports. DVOA now uses 2026 opponent adjustments, at 40% strength.

1. 49ers (2). They beat a real opponent without Nick Bosa, which was the test we were waiting on. FTN has them 11th among all teams through four games since 1977.

2. Chiefs (3). Kenneth Walker III leads the league with 537 rushing yards, per ESPN. The defense has no sacks in three straight games, and Tyquan Thornton and Rashee Rice were hurt going into the bye.

3. Seahawks (4). First in pass rush win rate and in defensive DVOA. FTN also says they have played one of the three easiest schedules and have the hardest one left, starting with San Francisco.

4. Jaguars (6). Second in DVOA and 11-1 in their last 12 regular-season games. We keep them a spot behind Seattle for one more week.

5. Bills (1). Seven turnovers in two weeks and a defense that is 26th in DVOA. The offense is still second.

6. Ravens (5). Lamar Jackson is day-to-day with a left ankle injury, and the line is on its fourth center. Thirteen penalties nearly let Tennessee back in.

7. Rams (9). FTN gave them a 96% post-game win expectancy in a game they trailed by 10 midway through the fourth quarter. Their special teams are last in DVOA, and Matthew Stafford has six interceptions.

8. Bears (11). Three wins with three quarterbacks, the league’s best rushing total, and a defense that is sixth in DVOA after FTN projected it last.

9. Vikings (8). They are 4-0 and 10th in DVOA: 31st on offense, second on defense, first on special teams. FTN’s list of the weakest 4-0 teams does include two champions.

10. Broncos (7). The hardest schedule so far, per FTN, and 13 first-half points in four games. Both starting cornerbacks left Sunday’s game.

11. Raiders (12). They lost by three to Kansas City and moved up a spot. The caution is FTN’s: no team has played an easier schedule.

12. Cowboys (15). Sixth on offense and last on defense in DVOA. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb won a game in which the defense allowed 30.

13. Bengals (10). Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards and the run game added 23. Ja’Marr Chase has to clear the concussion protocol.

14. Lions (13). They have allowed at least 30 points in every game, per ESPN, and are 30th in defensive DVOA. The pass rush is fourth in win rate, so the front is not the problem.

15. Panthers (21). The biggest rise on the board. They are ninth in DVOA, Bryce Young is playing the best football of his career without either starting tackle, and the bye should bring both back.

16. Patriots (24). Drake Maye’s first good game of the season came on the road, without Christian Gonzalez or Christian Barmore. He still leads the league with nine turnovers, per ESPN.

17. Eagles (14). No second-half points in two weeks and 0 for 12 on third down. Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are all hurt, and Jacksonville is next, in London.

18. Falcons (25). Eighty points in two games with Michael Penix Jr., and third in pass rush win rate. Baltimore, Chicago and San Francisco all visit Atlanta next, per NFL.com.

19. Browns (18). They are 3-1 and still 24th in DVOA, so three teams pass them. Deshaun Watson has three straight fourth-quarter go-ahead drives; Mason Graham’s knee is the concern.

20. Giants (22). First place in the NFC East and 31st in ESPN’s FPI. The defense has ended two straight games with red-zone interceptions.

21. Steelers (16). They lost in Cleveland, lost Derrick Harmon for a few weeks and traded Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas. The pass rush is 25th in win rate.

22. Colts (23). They are 2-2 with the league’s second-lowest yards per play, per ESPN. Daniel Jones has turned the ball over in every game.

23. Texans (20). They are 0-4 and 17th in DVOA, the third-best 0-4 team since 1977 by FTN’s count. The pass defense has fallen from fifth to 28th in yards allowed, per ESPN.

24. Saints (17). We had them winning the NFC South. They are 1-3 and 30th in DVOA, and they just allowed 205 rushing yards at home.

25. Packers (27). Last in rushing, with no rushing touchdown, per ESPN. Jordan Love was hit only twice in Tampa, but Edgerrin Cooper is out for the season and the Bears are next.

26. Jets (19). Thirty-two plays in Chicago, and three straight losses since the opener.

27. Commanders (26). They are down to their third quarterback, and ESPN reports optimism about Jayden Daniels for Week 6, not Week 5.

28. Cardinals (28). Three straight losses with at least 30 points allowed in each, per CBS Sports. DVOA still has them 19th.

29. Buccaneers (30). All four losses are by one score, and FTN has them 18th. Baker Mayfield is out three to six weeks, per ESPN.

30. Chargers (29). Last in offensive DVOA and 30th in pass block win rate, and Joe Alt is hurt. Justin Herbert has six interceptions.

31. Titans (31). Three straight losses by six points or fewer, per CBS Sports. Cam Ward topped 200 yards for the first time, and rookie Carnell Tate had 145.

32. Dolphins (32). Their four opponents are a combined 15-1. The defense got its first four sacks of the season in Minnesota.

Projected Win Totals

Sixty-four wins are banked through four weeks, and the other 208 are projected here; the totals sum to 272. The Week 4 column is what we published last week.

Projected seeds. AFC: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, Ravens; wild cards Broncos, Raiders, Bengals; first out, Patriots. NFC: 49ers, Vikings, Cowboys, Panthers; wild cards Seahawks, Rams, Bears; first out, Eagles, Lions and Falcons. We can’t project the tiebreakers between Buffalo and Jacksonville, Dallas and Carolina, the three AFC wild cards, or the three NFC wild cards.

The NFC South. This is the division we had most wrong. The Saints drop three wins and out of the field after losing by 21 at home. Carolina takes the division at 10-7, with a Top 10 DVOA and two tackles due back, and Atlanta rises two more after gaining three last week.

The NFC East. Dallas passes Philadelphia. The Eagles have not scored in the second half for two weeks and are hurt at running back, receiver, tight end and on the line. The Giants rise two wins to 8-9; first place is real, but ESPN’s FPI still ranks them 31st.

Kansas City. The Chiefs were our first team out in August and are now the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Kenneth Walker III is the reason, and the bye comes with two receivers hurt.

The Bears. Up two and into the field. They have won with three quarterbacks, and the defense is sixth in DVOA.

Houston. Down one more, to 6-11. DVOA still ranks the Texans 17th, and FTN gives them one of the easiest remaining schedules.

Holding on the schedule. Cincinnati stays at 10-7 despite losing at home, because FTN has its remaining schedule among the easiest. Denver stays at 10-7 because its 2-2 came against the hardest one.

Top 8 Quarterbacks

This is the first edition of this list.  Their historical body of work carries more weight than 4 weeks. When we review this again after Week 8, the 2026 results will be doing more lifting. The season can move a quarterback at each four-week checkpoint, if the form lasts the whole stretch and can’t be explained by his line or his receivers. The first five are quarterbacks who are the reason their teams win.

Two outside lists show where we differ. Mike Sando of The Athletic surveys coaches and executives before the season, and his order is relayed here by Austin Gayle of The Ringer. NFL.com’s QB Index is weekly; this edition was written entering Week 4. QBR is ESPN’s Total QBR through Week 4.

1. Josh Allen, Bills. Buffalo has seven turnovers in two weeks, and his interception ended Sunday’s game. He also became Buffalo’s career leader in scrimmage touchdowns with his 88th. Two loose weeks don’t outweigh the body of work.

2. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. He is 4-0 ten months after ACL surgery, as Dan Graziano of ESPN notes. The offense now runs through Kenneth Walker III, and Mahomes has been efficient more than spectacular: 20 of 24 in Miami, two touchdown passes in Las Vegas.

3. Lamar Jackson, Ravens. Fourth in QBR, the best of our first five. He threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns in one half against Tennessee before the ankle injury, behind a line on its fourth center. He is day-to-day, per CBS Sports.

4. Joe Burrow, Bengals. He threw for 428 yards on Sunday with 23 rushing yards of support and without Ja’Marr Chase for a half. His two interceptions, one in the red zone, were also the difference in a five-point loss.

5. Matthew Stafford, Rams. The reigning MVP has six interceptions, two more than all of last season, and is last in the league in QBR on play-action, per Barnwell. He also went 12 of 15 for 140 yards on the two drives that won in Philadelphia. He stays fifth on the MVP season, and the next four weeks decide whether he stays at the Week 8 checkpoint.

6. Brock Purdy, 49ers. First in QBR, with 11 touchdown passes, no sacks taken and no turnovers since Week 1. The standing question is how much of it is Kyle Shanahan’s system. The best answer so far is Gayle’s: through three weeks, no Shanahan offense had started a season better. This is our widest gap from the survey, which had him 11th.

7. Dak Prescott, Cowboys. Third in QBR with the league’s last-ranked defense by DVOA behind him. He threw for 335 yards in Houston and went 8 of 11 on the winning drive.

8. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars. Sixth in QBR, on a team that is second in DVOA and 11-1 in its last 12 regular-season games. He went 18 of 23 in Cincinnati for his first win over the Bengals.

First out: Jared Goff, Lions. He is 10th in QBR, threw for 412 yards on Sunday and was ninth in Sando’s survey. Prescott and Lawrence have been better this season.

Top 8 Offensive Lines

Four of our August eight stay and four go. The 49ers, Bills, Rams and Bears hold; the Raiders, Lions, Chiefs and Bengals replace the Broncos, Eagles, Chargers and Buccaneers. Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 4, with league rank in parentheses.

One caveat covers the whole list: win rate does not capture penalties. Baltimore was flagged 13 times on Sunday, and the Chargers and Seahawks combined for 30.

1. 49ers. They have not allowed a sack in four games, the first team to do that since the 2005 Colts. Sunday’s shutout came against a Denver defense that had the fifth-most sacks in NFL history last season, per CBS Sports. Colton McKivitz is fourth among tackles in pass block, and Trent Williams is tied for seventh.

2. Bills. The only line in the top four of both team measures. Dion Dawkins is fourth among tackles in run block, and Connor McGovern is sixth among interior linemen.

3. Raiders. First in pass block, with Kolton Miller first among tackles and Tyler Linderbaum 10th among interior linemen. Two cautions: they ran for 72 yards against Kansas City, and Jackson Powers-Johnson missed that game with a groin injury.

4. Rams. Their pass block rank rose from 18th to sixth in a week, and they gained 415 yards in Philadelphia. Warren McClendon Jr. is sixth and Alaric Jackson 10th among tackles in run block.

5. Lions. Fifth in pass block, with Blake Miller 11th and Penei Sewell 13th among tackles. A run block rank of 22nd keeps them from going higher.

6. Chiefs. Creed Humphrey is first among interior linemen in pass block, and Kenneth Walker III leads the league in rushing. They have done it without left tackle Josh Simmons, who has not played this season.

7. Bears. We had them marked for a downgrade after they lost left tackle Braxton Jones. They then ran for 232 yards against the Jets and lead the league with 785 rushing yards, per ESPN. Darnell Wright is sixth among tackles in pass block, and Garrett Bradbury is tied for second among interior linemen.

8. Bengals. First in run block, with Dalton Risner first among interior linemen and Orlando Brown Jr. second among tackles. This is the thinnest entry: they are 19th in pass block and ran for 23 yards against Jacksonville.

Dropped. Denver is 23rd in pass block and 20th in run block, with 13 first-half points all season. The Eagles are still ninth in pass block, with Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata second and third among tackles, but they are 29th in run block and played Sunday without Johnson and Landon Dickerson. The Chargers are 30th in pass block and lost Joe Alt to a neck injury. Tampa Bay is 22nd and 23rd.

First out. Minnesota is third in run block but lost Christian Darrisaw and Donovan Jackson during Sunday’s game. Baltimore is seventh in run block, 20th in pass block and on its fourth center. Atlanta ran for 205 yards on Monday, and Chris Lindstrom is in the top three of interior linemen in both measures.

Charting against results. Houston is seventh in pass block, yet its run game managed 50 yards on 17 designed carries in Week 4, per Barnwell. Pittsburgh is eighth after allowing five sacks in Cleveland. Green Bay is last at 22%, eight points behind the next-worst team, and just kept Jordan Love to two hits.

Top 8 Defensive Lines

This list changes more than the offensive one: three hold and five are new. The Seahawks, Rams and Ravens stay; the Vikings, Falcons, 49ers, Patriots and Broncos replace the Steelers, Bengals, Eagles, Texans and Giants. Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 4 with league rank in parentheses, and defensive DVOA rank is FTN’s.

1. Seahawks. First in pass rush win rate by five points and first in defensive DVOA. They sacked Justin Herbert four times on Sunday, and DeMarcus Lawrence ranks in the top eight among edges against both the pass and the run.

2. Vikings. Top two in all three measures, and the strongest omission from our August list. The caveat stands: they blitz on 68% of dropbacks, per ESPN, so some of this is Brian Flores. Andrew Van Ginkel is fourth and Dallas Turner ninth among edges in pass rush.

3. Rams. They held the Eagles to 172 yards without Myles Garrett, who is on injured reserve after knee surgery, or Aaron Donald, who sat with a back injury. Kobie Turner is third among tackles in run stop. They blitzed on half of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks, per Barnwell, so the Flores caveat applies here too.

4. Falcons. Third in pass rush, with Maason Smith first and Brandon Dorlus third among tackles. Za’Darius Smith entered the concussion protocol on Monday night.

5. 49ers. Sixth in pass rush and fifth in defensive DVOA without Nick Bosa. Romello Height is tied for sixth among edges and Osa Odighizuwa is seventh among tackles. A run stop rank of 24th is the weakness.

6. Ravens. Trey Hendrickson is eighth among edges and missed Sunday after a procedure on a broken finger.

7. Patriots. Seventh in pass rush and seventh in defensive DVOA, with Milton Williams eighth among tackles. They won in Buffalo without Christian Barmore. They are 26th in run stop.

8. Broncos. The numbers are middling, but they come against the hardest schedule in the league, per FTN. Denver held the 49ers to three points on their first seven possessions. Zach Allen is fifth among tackles in pass rush, and Malcolm Roach is sixth in run stop. This is the thinnest entry.

Dropped. The Giants come off because Brian Burns tore his ACL and is out for the season. Pittsburgh is 25th in pass rush, its defensive DVOA has gone from first to 13th in two weeks, and Derrick Harmon is out for a few weeks. Cincinnati is 17th in pass rush and 21st in defensive DVOA, and B.J. Hill missed another game. The Eagles are 30th in pass rush, though fourth in run stop. Houston is 29th in pass rush even with Will Anderson Jr. second among edges in run stop.

First out. Detroit is fourth in pass rush and 30th in defensive DVOA, which points at the secondary. The Chargers are first in run stop, with Tuli Tuipulotu first among edges, on an 0-4 team.

Where the line isn’t the story. Jacksonville is third in defensive DVOA while ranking 23rd in pass rush and 29th in run stop. Chicago is sixth in defensive DVOA and last in run stop. Arizona is ninth in pass rush and 29th in defensive DVOA.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

Field goal range now starts near midfield. Andre Szmyt won Thursday’s game from 56 yards. Tyler Loop hit from 64 to end a half, a week after winning in Rio from 56. Trey Smack’s 58-yarder was the margin in Tampa, and Brandon Aubrey tried from 62 and 65 in one half in Houston.

The tell is what now counts as a decision. Todd Bowles had to explain passing up a 65-yard attempt, and Szmyt said he asked Deshaun Watson only to reach the 42. A trailing team needs far less field in the last minute than it did a few years ago, and coaches have not all adjusted their clock management to it.

The schedule corrections have arrived. FTN switched DVOA to 2026 opponent adjustments this week, at 40% strength and rising. Denver has played the hardest schedule, against four opponents who are 13-3, per Fox Sports. The Raiders, Seahawks and Ravens have played the easiest.

That reframes three teams. Denver’s 2-2 is better than it looks. Las Vegas’ 3-1 gets tested at New England, then against Buffalo and the Rams. Seattle’s four opponents are 4-12, and FTN gives the Seahawks the hardest remaining schedule, starting with the 49ers on Sunday.

The best teams are winning through their own flags. Four of DVOA’s top 10 were penalized at least 11 times in Week 4: Seattle (14), Jacksonville (13), Baltimore (13) and Minnesota (11). All four won, and all four won by one score.

Those games were closer than the play in them. It also bears on our line lists, because win rate does not see a holding call. If the flags continue, the first place it will show is in close losses by teams the efficiency numbers like.

Week 5 Preview

Fifteen games, with Kansas City and Carolina on bye. We take ESPN’s model over the line once (San Francisco), the line over the model twice (Atlanta, Pittsburgh), and go against both twice (Cleveland, the Giants).

Thursday, October 8th

Tampa Bay at Dallas, 8:15 p.m. ET — Cowboys -8.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives Dallas 86.1%.

Key to the Game: Jalon Daniels makes his second start on a short week. He faces the defense DVOA ranks last, so this is the Cowboys’ chance to show the unit is better than that. Guard Tyler Smith is eligible to return from injured reserve, per Barnwell.

Our Pick: Cowboys.

Sunday, October 11th

Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville (London), 9:30 a.m. ET — Jaguars -6.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Jacksonville 73.4%.

Key to the Game: An Eagles offense with no second-half points in two weeks meets a defense that is third in DVOA and has an interception in nine straight games. Watch the statuses of Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Chicago at Green Bay, 1 p.m. ET — Bears -3, total 45.5. ESPN gives Chicago 57.6%.

Key to the Game: The league’s best rushing offense against a defense that just lost Edgerrin Cooper for the season. The other question is whether Green Bay’s protection in Tampa was real or a product of the opponent.

Our Pick: Bears. Chicago has won with three quarterbacks, so the pick doesn’t wait on Caleb Williams’ hamstring.

Houston at Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET — Texans -6.5, total 38.5. ESPN gives Houston 66.4%.

Key to the Game: Two winless teams. Houston’s secondary has blown two-score leads in consecutive weeks, and Tennessee has lost three straight by six or fewer.

Our Pick: Texans.

Cincinnati at Miami, 1 p.m. ET — Bengals -7, total 42.5. ESPN gives Cincinnati 80.3%.

Key to the Game: Whether Ja’Marr Chase clears the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins is available. Miami’s pass rush got its first four sacks of the season in Minnesota.

Our Pick: Bengals.

Las Vegas at New England, 1 p.m. ET — Patriots -3.5, total 45.5. ESPN gives New England 63.8%.

Key to the Game: The league’s top pass-blocking line by win rate against a pass rush that is seventh. Las Vegas also has to run it better than 2.8 yards a carry, with Ashton Jeanty playing through an ankle injury.

Our Pick: Patriots. The Raiders have played the easiest schedule in the league and now travel east for an early kickoff, their third road game in four weeks.

Minnesota at New Orleans, 1 p.m. ET — Vikings -1.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Minnesota 55.1%.

Key to the Game: DVOA’s 31st-ranked offense against its 31st-ranked defense. Justin Jefferson’s health always matters, especially for a team with one offensive touchdown since Week 1.

Our Pick: Vikings. The Saints just allowed 205 rushing yards, and Minnesota’s defense is second in DVOA.

Cleveland at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET — Jets -2.5, total 39.5. ESPN gives New York 55.4%.

Key to the Game: Cleveland’s five-man pressure and man coverage against an offense that ran 32 plays in Chicago. Mason Graham’s knee is the Browns’ concern.

Our Pick: Browns. Against both the line and the model. Cleveland has had 10 days off, and the Jets were missing Breece Hall and two pass catchers last week.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ET — Steelers -2.5, total 44.5. ESPN has it even: Colts 49.9%, Steelers 49.7%.

Key to the Game: Daniel Jones’ turnovers against a Pittsburgh defense missing Derrick Harmon and possibly Jamel Dean, with Joey Porter Jr. traded.

Our Pick: Steelers. Pittsburgh has had 10 days off, and Indianapolis is coming home from London without a bye.

New York Giants at Washington, 1 p.m. ET — Commanders -3.5, total 43.5. ESPN gives Washington 62.9%.

Key to the Game: Washington’s quarterback. Marcus Mariota has a knee injury, and ESPN reports optimism about Jayden Daniels for Week 6, which would leave Athan Kaliakmanis.

Our Pick: Giants. Against both the line and the model. New York is seventh in pass rush win rate, and Washington may also be without Terry McLaurin.

Denver at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET — Broncos -3.5, total 42.5. ESPN has it even: Broncos 50%, Chargers 49.6%.

Key to the Game: A Chargers line that is 30th in pass block and may not have Joe Alt, against Denver’s front. Denver’s own concern is at cornerback, where Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss both left Sunday’s game.

Our Pick: Broncos.

Detroit at Arizona, 4:25 p.m. ET — Lions -4.5, total 54.5. ESPN gives Detroit 69.3%.

Key to the Game: The league’s worst scoring defense against Jacoby Brissett, who threw three interceptions on Sunday. The total is tied for the highest on the slate.

Our Pick: Lions.

San Francisco at Seattle, 4:25 p.m. ET — Seahawks -3, total 47.5. ESPN gives San Francisco 55.7%.

Key to the Game: The game of the week comes down to one matchup. The line that has not allowed a sack faces the pass rush that is first in win rate at 69%.

Our Pick: 49ers. Model over line. San Francisco’s DVOA is more than double Seattle’s, and the Seahawks’ four opponents are 4-12.

Baltimore at Atlanta, 8:20 p.m. ET — Falcons -3, total 43.5. ESPN gives Baltimore 51.8%.

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s left ankle, and a Ravens line on its fourth center against the third-ranked pass rush by win rate.

Our Pick: Falcons. Line over model. The line is pricing the ankle, and Atlanta has scored 80 points in two games.

Monday, October 12th

Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. ET — Rams -2.5, total 54.5. ESPN gives the Rams 59%.

Key to the Game: Two quarterbacks from our top five who have been loose with the ball. Buffalo has seven turnovers in two weeks, and Matthew Stafford has six interceptions.

Our Pick: Rams. Buffalo’s defense is 26th in DVOA and lost Ed Oliver on Sunday, and Aaron Donald could return.

The post 2026 NFL: Previewing Week 5 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The cliche is true: this is a week-to-week league. Underdogs won seven of the first 15 games in Week 3, per CBS Sports, and Chicago made it eight of 16 on Monday night with its third-string quarterback. Twelve of Sunday’s games were decided by eight points or fewer, tying the record for a single day, per ESPN Research. Very few teams are overwhelmingly better than the rest head-to-head. What decides most Sundays is who matches up with whom, and who is healthy.

The matchup side showed up everywhere. Pittsburgh’s offense came in 31st in DVOA and put 14 points on Cincinnati in the first quarter, going deep against man coverage. Cleveland took away Bryce Young’s deep ball with disguised pressure and won a game in which it gained 154 yards through three quarters.

Week 3 Review

Each game lists the line, our pick, what we expected to decide it and what did. Lines are DraftKings at kickoff where we have them.

Thursday

Falcons 35, Packers 14

Atlanta had not run a red-zone play in two weeks with Cooper Rush at quarterback. With Michael Penix Jr. back from his November ACL tear, the Falcons fell behind 7-0, scored 27 straight, and outrushed Green Bay 242 to 17. Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns, and Drake London caught nine passes for a career-high 194.

Green Bay’s penalties turned it. A roughing call on Brenton Cox Jr. wiped out a third-and-11 stop, and Robinson went 55 yards on the next snap. Jordan Love threw 53 times behind a line starting rookie Jager Burton at left guard. It was the Packers’ first home-opener loss since 2012.

Packers -4.5 at kickoff (-7 when we published), total 43.5. ESPN had Green Bay at 74.1%. Our Pick: Packers.

Expected: Green Bay’s penalties and inexperienced line, against an Atlanta passing game that had been historically bad with Rush. What decided it: Penix changed Atlanta’s offense, and Green Bay’s penalties did the rest.

Sunday Early

Lions 31, Jets 24

We said this would be closer than the line, and it was tied at 24 midway through the fourth. The Jets erased a 14-point deficit on Geno Smith touchdowns to Jeremy Ruckert and Garrett Wilson and a two-point pass to Sterling Shepard. Smith finished 31 of 37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns, and rookie Kenyon Sadiq caught seven for 105.

Then two blown coverages let Detroit go 65 yards in four plays, capped by Jahmyr Gibbs’ 11-yard catch, his third touchdown. Chuck Clark’s strip-sack at the Detroit 28 ended it. Jared Goff has a touchdown pass in 26 straight games, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is the first Lion since Calvin Johnson in 2011 with a touchdown catch in each of the first three games, per the Lions.

Lions -6.5 when we published, total 48.5. ESPN had Detroit at 75.5%. Our Pick: Lions.

Expected: Whether Kelvin Sheppard blitzed the way he did against Allen, and a game closer than the line. What decided it: It was closer, tied at 24 in the fourth. Detroit’s pressure ended it: five sacks, per CBS Sports, the last a blitzing Chuck Clark’s strip-sack.

Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10

Kansas City scored touchdowns on its first two drives, then spent most of the afternoon letting Miami hang around. It was 14-10 going into the fourth. Miami failed on fourth down at its own 48, and Patrick Mahomes found Travis Kelce for an 11-yard touchdown with 2:55 left. Kelce’s 48-yard catch on the first play and that touchdown were his only targets.

Kenneth Walker III scored on a run and a catch and leads the league in rushing. Mahomes went 20 of 24. Miami has still not led for a single snap this season. It also lost De’Von Achane to a torn ACL on the opening drive, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.

Chiefs -11.5 when we published, total 45.5. ESPN had Kansas City at 85.8%. Our Pick: Chiefs.

Expected: Miami, last in DVOA, unable to hold a lead or the ball. What decided it: Kansas City’s first two drives. After that Miami’s defense held up, and the Chiefs needed a fourth-down stop and a late touchdown to pull away.

Steelers 30, Bengals 27

Aaron Rodgers was 0 for 9 on throws of 20-plus air yards in the first two weeks, and went 2 of 3 for 61 yards and two touchdowns on them in the first quarter, per Next Gen Stats. Pittsburgh started Brock Hoffman at right guard and first-round pick Max Iheanachor at right tackle. Rodgers held the ball an average of 3.19 seconds, his longest as a Steeler, per ESPN’s Benjamin Solak.

Jaylen Warren had a career-high 176 scrimmage yards with Rico Dowdle inactive. He gained 69 yards before contact after totaling -14 in the first two weeks, per Next Gen Stats. Joe Burrow completed his first 14 passes and threw three touchdowns. Cincinnati’s special teams cost it 10 points, on a roughing-the-punter penalty and Ke’Shawn Williams’ muffed punt. Chris Boswell’s 33-yarder put Pittsburgh ahead with 2:18 left, and Derrick Harmon’s strip-sack of Burrow sealed it.

Bengals -3.5 when we published, total 42.5. ESPN had Cincinnati at 61.1%. Our Pick: Bengals.

Expected: Whichever line held up, with Cincinnati’s front, tied for the league lead in sacks, against the Steelers offense. What decided it: The lines, as expected, but Pittsburgh’s. The rebuilt right side kept Dexter Lawrence quiet, Harmon had the only sack, and Cincinnati’s special teams gave away 10 points.

Colts 19, Texans 17

This was the game our 10-7 Houston projection could not survive losing, and Houston lost it. Spencer Shrader hurt his groin on the opening kickoff and still made four field goals, the last from 53 yards with 16 seconds left.

Houston gained 223 yards without Nico Collins or right guard Ed Ingram. It failed on fourth-and-1, then kicked a field goal on fourth-and-4 inside the 10 down 16-7, a call Solak says cost 3.6% in win probability. The defense forced three turnovers. Will Anderson Jr. had nine pressures and two strip-sacks, per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, and the second set up Woody Marks’ go-ahead run with 1:48 left. The Colts needed 37 seconds and three plays to answer.

Texans -3 when we published, total 43.5. ESPN had Houston at 52.5%. Our Pick: Texans.

Expected: Houston’s red-zone offense, 32nd since the start of last season, and Collins’ hamstring. What decided it: Collins’ absence, yes: 223 yards. The red zone wasn’t the problem (2 of 3). Getting there was, along with two fourth-down decisions and Shrader’s leg.

Bills 24, Chargers 16

Buffalo turned it over five times and won. James Cook fumbled on the first snap, Josh Allen threw two interceptions to rookie safety Genesis Smith and lost a fumble, and Dalton Kincaid fumbled at the Chargers’ 17. It was Buffalo’s first win at -4 or worse in turnover differential since 1997, and the opposing quarterback that day was Jim Harbaugh, per ESPN’s Nick Suss.

Harbaugh’s Chargers turned five takeaways into 10 points. They have now lost three games since 2015 in which they won the turnover margin by four or more; the rest of the league has lost two, per Solak. They kicked a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 3 while tied, which Barnwell says cost 5.8% in win probability, then had to go for fourth-and-10 later. C.J. Gardner-Johnson intercepted Justin Herbert at the goal line, Allen scored the go-ahead touchdown with 7:35 left, and Cook added another. Cook ran for 154 yards, 108 of them on man-blocking concepts, per Next Gen Stats. Greg Rousseau tied Bruce Smith’s team record with five sacks through three games.

Bills -7 when we published), total 50.5. ESPN had Buffalo at 78.9%. Our Pick: Bills.

Expected: Buffalo’s offense, best in DVOA, against a Chargers team with 13 offensive penalties, seven fumbles and a rattled quarterback. What decided it: The turnovers went the other way; Buffalo committed five. The Chargers’ self-inflicted problems still decided it, through penalties and two field goals where the math said go for it.

Jaguars 35, Patriots 6

Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdowns, all in the red zone. Drake Maye threw two interceptions, including Travis Hunter’s first career pick on third-and-goal from the 2, and lost a fumble when the ball slipped out of his hand. He has one touchdown pass and six interceptions, and his seven turnovers lead the league.

Andy Borregales missed from 38. Mack Hollins’ taunting penalty turned a fourth-and-1 conversion into a field goal. Christian Barmore and Carlton Davis were both hurt and both returned; guard Greg Van Roten did not. Jacksonville has an interception in eight straight games, the league’s longest active streak, per the Jaguars.

Jaguars -3 when we published, total 45.5. ESPN had Jacksonville at 57.5%. Our Pick: Jaguars.

Expected: The interior, Barmore and Milton Williams against Lawrence, plus New England’s attrition in the heat. What decided it: Maye. His three turnovers became 14 Jacksonville points. The pressure that mattered was on Maye, 11 times in the first half per ESPN’s Mike Reiss, from a front ranked 30th in pass-rush win rate.

Giants 12, Titans 7

We took Tennessee on Jaxson Dart’s injury, and the Giants won with Jameis Winston in a nor’easter. Dominic Zvada kicked four field goals. Tennessee went three-and-out on its first five possessions and did not get a first down until late in the third, per ESPN’s Turron Davenport. Chimere Dike fumbled the opening kickoff.

Cam Ward missed an open Carnell Tate in the end zone, hit Wan’Dale Robinson for the only touchdown with 5:35 left, then threw an interception to Jevon Holland on first-and-goal with 17 seconds left and two timeouts. The Giants lost Brian Burns to a torn ACL; he is out for the season. Jeffery Simmons had a sack and seven tackles in the first half.

Giants -2.5 at kickoff (-3 when we published, -6 at open), total 37.5 (40.5 when we published). ESPN had Tennessee at 54.1%. Our Pick: Titans.

Expected: Dart’s knee. We called it a tossup taken on the injury alone. What decided it: Not Dart. The weather, a Giants run game that gained 138 yards, and Ward’s misses in the red zone.

Commanders 33, Seahawks 31

The biggest upset of the season. Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns and ran for the clinching first down on third-and-7. Seattle outgained Washington but gave the ball away three times, and Washington scored 21 points off them. Rookie Sonny Styles had an interception and a forced fumble, the first rookie linebacker to do both in a game since 2018, per Solak. Kain Medrano, playing because Leo Chenal was carted off with a neck injury, returned a Sam Darnold interception 50 yards for the winning points.

Darnold threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns in his return, but Seattle ran for 44 yards and came away empty on three straight throws from the Washington 2 before half. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 10 for 128 and two scores and joined Jerry Rice (1989) as the only players with 120 yards and a touchdown in each of their team’s first three games. Seattle’s 12-game winning streak is over, and so is its run without allowing a 25-yard play: Terry McLaurin’s 30-yard touchdown ended it. Chenal was at the hospital with feeling in his extremities, per Dan Quinn.

Seahawks -6.5 when we published, total 39.5. ESPN had Seattle at 67.2%. Our Pick: Seahawks.

Expected: Mariota’s first start against the only defense yet to allow a 25-yard play, in the lowest total on the board. What decided it: Seattle’s three turnovers, worth 21 Washington points. The teams scored 64.

Browns 21, Panthers 18

Carolina settled for four Ryan Fitzgerald field goals and went 0 for 3 on fourth down, which is how it led by only five after John Metchie III’s touchdown with 4:25 left. Deshaun Watson then threw an interception in the end zone, had it erased by a roughing penalty on Bobby Okereke, and hit Harold Fannin Jr. for a 14-yard touchdown with 1:48 left. Ronnie Hickman’s interception finished it.

Our Match-Up to Watch went Cleveland’s way. Young went 2 of 6 on deep throws after 7 of 11 in the first two weeks, per Barnwell, and was pressured on more than half his dropbacks for much of the game. Mason Graham has four sacks in three games. Carolina lost Jalen Coker and Mike Jackson during the game.

Panthers -3 when we published, total 42.5. ESPN had Carolina at 63.5%. Our Pick: Panthers.

Match-Up we named: Young’s 8.0 yards per dropback against Cleveland. What decided it: That matchup, the other way. Cleveland took away the deep ball, and Carolina’s three failed fourth downs left the door open for Watson.

Sunday Late

Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16

Minnesota scored on an 86-yard Myles Price punt return and a 41-yard Kyler Murray pass to Jordan Addison, and Will Reichard kicked from 54, 56 and 43. That was enough. Kyle Van Noy had three of Minnesota’s six sacks, and Tampa went 2 of 17 on third down. A Luke Goedeke hold wiped out an 85-yard Chris Godwin Jr. touchdown.

Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb late and has an MRI Monday. Justin Jefferson left in the first quarter with a right ankle injury. The Vikings are 3-0 and have won eight straight dating to last season.

Vikings -1.5 when we publishe), total 42.5. ESPN had Minnesota at 52.2%. Our Pick: Vikings.

Expected: Minnesota’s blitz against a line that had allowed seven sacks, Murray upgrading the offense, and the Tampa heat. What decided it: The pass rush (six sacks) and special teams. Murray did not upgrade the offense once Jefferson left, and the heat never showed up.

Raiders 35, Saints 27

New Orleans led 27-16 in the third quarter behind four Tyler Shough touchdown passes, then turned it over four times in the fourth. The first came on a Malcolm Koonce strip-sack that stood on review. Kirk Cousins threw three touchdowns and has nine through three games. Brock Bowers made his season debut with 10 catches for 116 yards and the clinching touchdown.

The six tight-end touchdowns tied the NFL record for a game, per Solak. Las Vegas is 3-0.

Saints -3 when we published, total 43.5. ESPN had New Orleans at 64.3%. Our Pick: Saints.

Match-Up we named: Shough, sacked the second-most in the league, against a Raiders rush tied for the lead, with Kelvin Banks Jr. out. What decided it: Exactly that. Koonce’s strip-sack started four fourth-quarter turnovers, and Banks’ replacement, Asim Richards, was beaten on two of them, per ESPN’s Katherine Terrell.

Ravens 34, Cowboys 31

Tyler Loop’s 56-yard field goal as time expired won it in Rio, set up by Lamar Jackson’s throw to Zay Flowers with seven seconds left and a timeout with one. Derrick Henry passed Eric Dickerson for ninth on the career rushing list. Full review in our Ravens piece.

Ravens -3 when we published, total 52.5. ESPN had Baltimore at 53.9%. Our Pick: Ravens.

Expected: Baltimore’s run blocking against Dallas’ run defense, Jackson’s protection, and the field. What decided it: The run game scored twice early and failed in short yardage late. Jackson won it in the fourth quarter. The field held up.

49ers 36, Cardinals 30

Kyle Shanahan opened with a hook-and-ladder on third-and-12: Brock Purdy to Mike Evans, lateral to Deebo Samuel, 82 yards. Purdy threw four touchdowns and tied Steve Young’s team record with nine touchdown passes through three games. San Francisco led 23-6, then lost Evans (ribs), Trent Williams (stinger) and Dre Greenlaw (quad), with Nick Bosa already out.

Arizona got within 29-27, helped by a muffed punt and two missed Eddy Pineiro extra points. George Kittle’s second touchdown and Samuel’s onside-kick recovery closed it.

49ers -8.5 when we published, total 47.5. ESPN had San Francisco at 90.3%. Our Pick: 49ers.

Expected: San Francisco’s DVOA and Purdy, against an offense that gained 151 yards the week before. What decided it: Purdy, as expected. Arizona scoring 30 after San Francisco’s injuries was not.

Sunday Night

Broncos 30, Rams 26

The Rams led 16-0 at halftime and outgained Denver 482 to 257, per CBS Sports. Talanoa Hufanga dropped two interceptions, then returned one 66 yards for a touchdown with 4:49 left and caught another in the end zone on the final play. Bo Nix scored the winner from inches out with 47 seconds left, after a pass interference call on Justin Wallace.

Matthew Stafford threw for 390 yards without Puka Nacua. Davante Adams caught seven for 137. The Rams were 1 of 4 in the red zone.

Rams -2.5 when we published, total 45.5. ESPN had the Rams at 65.1%. Our Pick: Rams.

Expected: The Rams looking like themselves against a Denver run defense allowing 157.5 yards a game. What decided it: The Rams did look like themselves for a half, and gained 482 yards. Red-zone trips (1 of 4), Stafford’s pick-six and Hufanga decided it.

Monday Night

Bears 27, Eagles 7

Case Keenum made his first start in almost three years, with Caleb Williams hurt and Tyson Bagent cleared from the concussion protocol only on Sunday. Keenum went 24 of 34 for 247 yards and two touchdowns, a shovel pass to Luther Burden and a 41-yarder to a wide-open Kalif Raymond. He also scored on a 1-yard run to finish a 13-play drive that took more than eight minutes. Ben Johnson credited Keenum’s command of the offense.

Philadelphia turned it over three times and still has no takeaways this season. Jalen Hurts was pulled for a concussion check after a late hit in the second quarter, and Andy Dalton threw an end-zone interception to rookie Dillon Thieneman while Hurts waited to be cleared. Hurts was later intercepted by T.J. Edwards on fourth-and-5, and Nick Sirianni said afterward he should have gone for an earlier fourth-and-1. The Eagles gained 62 of their 248 yards after halftime. Chicago lost left tackle Braxton Jones to a knee injury.

Eagles -3.5 when we published, total 44.5. ESPN had Philadelphia at 57.1%. Our Pick: Eagles.

Expected: Whether Bagent could run Ben Johnson’s offense unchanged, against the lowest-ranked 2-0 team in DVOA. What decided it: Keenum, not Bagent, running the offense on time, and three Philadelphia turnovers against a defense that still hasn’t forced one.

Power Rankings

Pre is our preseason ranking. Last week’s rank is in parentheses in each note below.

1. Bills (1). Five turnovers and still a win. First in ESPN and Prisco. They stay here until someone beats them.
2. 49ers (3). First in DVOA at 68.7%, the ninth-best mark through three games since 1977, per FTN’s Aaron Schatz, and first on NFL.com. We held them at 3 until they beat a real opponent. Arizona wasn’t it; Denver on Sunday is.
3. Chiefs (4). Kenneth Walker III leads the league in rushing and has changed what Mahomes’ offense can be. The concern is a pass rush that hasn’t sacked anyone in two weeks.
4. Seahawks (2). Lost on three turnovers, not on being outplayed. First in team run-stop win rate, second in pass rush.
5. Ravens (5). Last week we held them here against ESPN and Prisco. This week DVOA, ESPN and NFL.com all have them fifth.
6. Jaguars (14). Second in DVOA and 10-1 in their last 11 regular-season games. The biggest move on the board, and still below where DVOA has them.
7. Broncos (9). Two comeback wins in two weeks, and 10 first-half points all season. Sixth in three outside rankings, 16th in DVOA.
8. Vikings (10). First in defensive DVOA, 30th on offense, eight straight wins.
9. Rams (7). 1-2, but 10th in DVOA and the highest-ranked team with a losing record. Nacua is due back.
10. Bengals (6). Pittsburgh put 411 yards on the defense we reversed our August read on.
11. Bears (17). Case Keenum, and a defense that held Philadelphia to 248 yards.
12. Raiders (19). Nine takeaways, nine Cousins touchdown passes, and a schedule that turns now: Kansas City, New England, Buffalo, the Rams.
13. Lions (11). Thirty-plus points every week, and the most points allowed in the league.
14. Eagles (8). 22nd in DVOA with no takeaways in three games. The Chicago loss confirmed what the first two weeks suggested.
15. Cowboys (12). Lost in Rio on two late mistakes. Twelfth in DVOA.
16. Steelers (18). A rebuilt right side and a new offense for one week. Now it has to last on a short week in Cleveland.
17. Saints (21). Four fourth-quarter turnovers turned a win into a loss. Shough has eight touchdown passes.
18. Browns (25). Outgained in all three games and 2-1 anyway, on defense and Mason Graham.
19. Jets (20). Two one-score losses to NFC North teams. Fifteenth in DVOA.
20. Texans (15). 0-3. DVOA has them 17th, and FTN says the offense is about what it was last season. The record is what we have to answer to.
21. Panthers (23). Young is a different quarterback without Jalen Coker, and the injury list keeps growing.
22. Giants (28). 2-1, with Dart and now Burns out for the season.
23. Colts (24). The defense that allowed 1,029 yards in two weeks held Houston to 223.
24. Patriots (13). The worst offense in DVOA. Maye has seven turnovers in three games.
25. Falcons (31). With Penix, 35 points in Green Bay.
26. Commanders (29). Beat the champions with a backup, and Daniels may be back in London.
27. Packers (16). Last in pass-block win rate at 16%, and 30th in DVOA.
28. Cardinals (26). Scored 24 second-half points in San Francisco after eight first-half penalties.
29. Chargers (27). Five takeaways, still 0-3. DVOA and the results now agree.
30. Buccaneers (22). 0-3, with an undrafted rookie at quarterback for at least three weeks.
31. Titans (30). One first down in the first half in New Jersey.
32. Dolphins (32). Hung with Kansas City for three quarters and lost Achane for the season.

Projected Win Totals

With 48 wins banked through three weeks, the Week 4 set spreads the remaining 224 across 14 games per team and sums to 272 again.

Projected seeds. AFC: Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Jaguars; wild cards Broncos, Raiders, Bengals; first out, Steelers. NFC: 49ers, Vikings, Eagles, Saints; wild cards Seahawks, Rams, Lions; first out, Bears and Cowboys. Buffalo and Kansas City, Baltimore and Jacksonville, and Seattle and the Rams finish tied; we can’t project those tiebreakers.

Houston. Last week we called 10-7 from 0-2 the most aggressive projection on the page, and said a loss in Indianapolis would make it untenable. It did. The Texans drop three wins to 7-10, and the AFC South goes to Jacksonville.

The NFC West. We flipped the division from the Rams to Seattle last week. It now goes to San Francisco at 13-4, with Seattle and the Rams at 11-6 as wild cards.

Kansas City. From first team out in August to a projected top-two seed. We’ll say it every time the totals come back.

The AFC North. All four teams are 2-1. Baltimore holds the division at 11-6. Cincinnati’s 10-7 is now a wild card, Pittsburgh is first team out at 9-8, and Cleveland is up two to 8-9. Pittsburgh and Cleveland meet Thursday.

Week 4 Preview

No byes. In three games ESPN’s model favors the team the line has as the underdog: Green Bay at Tampa Bay, Dallas at Houston and Jacksonville at Cincinnati. Those, plus Denver at San Francisco, are the low-confidence picks and get a sentence of reasoning. Next week’s review checks each Key to the Game against what actually decided the game.

Thursday, October 1st

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 8:15 p.m. ET — Steelers -2.5, total 37.5. ESPN gives Pittsburgh 55.4%.

Key to the Game: The AFC North is four teams at 2-1, and the winner leads it alone. Pittsburgh’s new right side gave Rodgers time against Cincinnati. Cleveland’s disguised pressure and Mason Graham are the test of whether that holds. Cleveland drew 10 penalties in the first half against Carolina.

Our Pick: Steelers. Cleveland has been outgained in all three games. Pittsburgh’s rebuilt right side gives Rodgers time to see through pressure the Browns disguise.

Sunday, October 4th

Indianapolis vs. Washington (London), 9:30 a.m. ET — Colts -3, total 47.5. ESPN gives Indianapolis 53.9%. [Confirm designated home team.]

Key to the Game: Whether Jayden Daniels plays. Dan Quinn told The MMQB’s Albert Breer that Daniels is more likely than not to travel to London, two weeks after dislocating his elbow, per Yahoo Sports. Mariota won with quick throws and no turnovers. The Colts’ defense allowed 1,029 yards in its first two games and 223 against Houston. Daniel Jones fumbled three times. Washington’s linebackers are thin after Leo Chenal’s neck injury, and Rachaad White is hurt, per Fox Sports.

Our Pick: Colts. Washington’s 33 points came off three takeaways; without them, it gained 258 yards.

New England at Buffalo, 1:00 p.m. ET — Bills -7, total 48.5. ESPN gives Buffalo 71%.

Key to the Game: Maye has seven turnovers and A.J. Brown will miss at least two more games. Buffalo gave the ball away five times and still won. Christian Benford’s toe matters for the Bills’ secondary.

Our Pick: Bills.

N.Y. Jets at Chicago, 1:00 p.m. ET — Bears -3, total 42.5. ESPN gives Chicago 66.2%.

Key to the Game: Case Keenum beat Philadelphia on Monday in his first start in almost three years, with Caleb Williams out three to four weeks and Bagent back from the concussion protocol. Chicago lost left tackle Braxton Jones to a knee injury. Geno Smith threw for 321 yards in Detroit, and the Jets have lost two straight one-score games to NFC North teams. Breece Hall’s thigh.

Our Pick: Bears.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati, 1:00 p.m. ET — Bengals -2.5, total 51.5. ESPN gives Jacksonville 55%.

Key to the Game: Lawrence has five red-zone touchdowns and no interceptions this season. Cincinnati allowed 411 yards and gave away 10 points on special teams in Pittsburgh. The model and the market disagree; one sentence of reasoning.

Our Pick: Jaguars. DVOA has Jacksonville second, and Cincinnati’s defense just allowed 411 yards. The line likes the Bengals at home; we don’t.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants, 1:00 p.m. ET — Cardinals -1.5, total 44.5. ESPN gives Arizona 55.1%.

Key to the Game: The Giants are 2-1 with Winston, who remains the starter after Monday’s trade for J.J. McCarthy, per John Harbaugh. They lost Brian Burns to a torn ACL. Arizona had 10 penalties in San Francisco, eight in the first half, then scored on anyone it saw in the second.

Our Pick: Cardinals. The Giants’ defense won last week’s game, and it just lost Brian Burns.

L.A. Rams at Philadelphia, [1:00 or 4:25] p.m. ET — Rams -1.5, total 46.5. ESPN gives the Rams 56.6%. [Kickoff: Fox Sports lists 1:00, ESPN lists 4:25. Confirm, and recheck the line after Monday night.]

Key to the Game: Puka Nacua is expected back; Myles Garrett is still out. The Rams gained 482 yards in Denver and went 1 of 4 in the red zone. Philadelphia has no takeaways in three games and gained 62 yards after halftime in Chicago.

Our Pick: Rams. DVOA has Philadelphia 22nd, and Nacua is due back.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay, 1:00 p.m. ET — Packers -3.5, total 39.5. ESPN gives Tampa Bay 53.9%.

Key to the Game: Mayfield is reportedly out two to four weeks with the thumb, per Yahoo Sports, and ESPN expects Jalon Daniels to start for at least three weeks, with practice-squad veteran Easton Stick the only other option. Tampa’s offense had six sacks and went 2 of 17 on third down with Mayfield. Green Bay’s line is missing Zach Bako-Bewele for the season, and the Packers have a penalty problem. The model and the market disagree; one sentence of reasoning.

Our Pick: Packers. Green Bay’s line is last in pass-block win rate, but Tampa Bay is starting an undrafted rookie behind a line that just allowed six sacks.

Tennessee at Baltimore, 1:00 p.m. ET — Ravens -11.5, total 43.5. ESPN gives Baltimore 83.3%.

Key to the Game: Who snaps the ball for Baltimore, and whether the Ravens let an inferior team hang around. Full preview in our Ravens piece.

Our Pick: Ravens.

Dallas at Houston, 1:00 p.m. ET — Texans -2.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives Dallas 55.5%.

Key to the Game: Dallas flew back from Rio and did not return to work until Tuesday, per ESPN’s Todd Archer. Houston is 0-3 with its defense playing well and its offense waiting on Collins. The model and the market disagree; one sentence of reasoning.

Our Pick: Texans. ESPN’s model likes Dallas, but the Cowboys didn’t get back to work from Rio until Tuesday, and DVOA says Houston is better than 0-3.

Miami at Minnesota, 4:05 p.m. ET — Vikings -10, total 38.5. ESPN gives Minnesota 82.4%.

Key to the Game: Miami lost De’Von Achane for the season, and Malik Willis came into Week 3 as the most-sacked quarterback in the league. Minnesota’s defense had six sacks in Tampa. Justin Jefferson’s ankle.

Our Pick: Vikings.

Kansas City at Las Vegas, 4:25 p.m. ET — Chiefs -5.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives Kansas City 70.2%.

Key to the Game: Two 3-0 teams. Las Vegas has nine takeaways and 10 sacks and just got Brock Bowers back. Kansas City has not sacked a quarterback in two weeks, per ESPN’s Nate Taylor, and leans on Walker.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Denver at San Francisco, 4:25 p.m. ET — 49ers -3, total 46.5. ESPN gives San Francisco 77.6%.

Key to the Game: The model rates San Francisco far higher than a three-point line does, likely because the market is pricing the injuries: Bosa, Evans, Trent Williams and Greenlaw. This is also the real opponent that decides our discount on the 49ers. Denver has 10 first-half points in three games and two comeback wins.

Our Pick: 49ers. The line says three points because of the injuries. Purdy’s offense is first in DVOA, and Denver has scored 10 first-half points all season.

L.A. Chargers at Seattle, 4:25 p.m. ET — Seahawks -6.5, total 43.5. ESPN gives Seattle 73.8%.

Key to the Game: Seattle’s turnovers against a Chargers defense that just forced five. The Chargers’ offense has more punts and turnovers than touchdowns this season, per AP.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Detroit at Carolina, 8:20 p.m. ET — Lions -3.5, total 50.5. ESPN gives Detroit 61.9%.

Key to the Game: Carolina’s injuries, especially Coker, whose absence changes Young’s deep game. Gibbs has touched the ball on every big Detroit drive. Carolina has its bye next week.

Our Pick: Lions.

Monday, October 5th

Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:15 p.m. ET — Saints -2.5, total 48.5. ESPN gives New Orleans 62.6%.

Key to the Game: Penix’s second game against a Saints team that turned it over four times in the fourth quarter Sunday, with Kelvin Banks Jr. on IR and Travis Etienne’s hamstring. The NFC South is three teams at 1-2.

Our Pick: Saints. Penix makes Atlanta a different team, but New Orleans’ collapse was one quarter, and Shough has eight touchdown passes.

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Sam Darnold was inactive with a hip. Kyler Murray went into the concussion protocol eleven snaps into Week 1. Caleb Williams was carted off in Chicago with a right hamstring. Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow – the same one that ended his 2025 season – on the final play of the first half in Arlington. Jaxson Dart went down on the Giants’ seventh snap Monday night with a knee injury John Harbaugh described as “in the neighborhood of” a sprained ligament. And Atlanta started Cooper Rush for a second straight week, then benched him for an undrafted rookie who threw a pick-six on his first pass.

What separated the teams was how much of the operation depended on the man who left. Seattle won by 24 with Drew Lock, who has four touchdowns, no turnovers and the fourth-best QBR in football. Minnesota became the first team in NFL history to win four straight games with four different starting quarterbacks – Brosmer, McCarthy, Murray, Wentz – and did it with a defense and special teams unit that both rank sixth in EPA. Chicago scored three points. The Giants gained 182 yards. Washington, tied in everything but the scoreboard when Daniels went down, lost by 17.

Three other patterns ran underneath it. Home favorites kept losing — Baltimore, Tampa Bay and the Chargers all did, the Chargers for a second straight week and both times as a touchdown-plus favorite. Games kept turning on possession, with underdogs playing keep-away and mostly staying close. And penalties decided drives everywhere: Green Bay lost 133 yards on 14 flags and still won, the Chargers have 13 offensive penalties in two games, and Chicago committed nine against the one defense in football that punishes a third-and-long more than any other.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Our picks going forward are straight winners. We’ll show the line and the total, but we’re only formally picking the game.

Week 2 In Review

Thursday: Bills 41, Lions 31. Buffalo opened its new stadium by scoring on its first four possessions. Josh Allen threw three touchdowns and ran for two more, and has nine total through two weeks; James Cook ran for 134. Detroit blitzed Allen on 55.3% of his dropbacks, the highest rate under Kelvin Sheppard, and per Next Gen Stats he went 12 of 17 for 137 and two scores against it. Jared Goff was excellent in defeat – 26 of 38, 327 yards, four touchdowns — behind a line playing three backups that allowed four sacks. Detroit was without both starting safeties.

Panthers 34, Falcons 3. A week after allowing 59 points and franchise records in points and rushing touchdowns, Carolina held Atlanta to 286 yards. Bryce Young threw for 287 and three scores, two to Darren Waller. Devin Lloyd had nine tackles without a miss, a sack and two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown. Cooper Rush lost a fumble on the first play and threw an interception on the second possession; Jack Strand threw a pick-six on his first pass.

Bengals 20, Texans 6. Joe Burrow threw both touchdowns to Ja’Marr Chase, the first a 32-yard toe-drag over Derek Stingley – their 19th 20-plus-air-yard touchdown connection since 2021, most of any duo. But the game was the defense. Cincinnati kept Houston out of the end zone, only the third time under Zac Taylor they have held a team without a touchdown, with four sacks and a Dexter Lawrence fourth-and-1 stop on David Montgomery at the Cincinnati 18. Houston outgained Cincinnati 374 to 267 and lost by 14. Without Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud threw 55 times for 353 yards; the Texans botched a snap on a 34-yard field-goal try, and DeMeco Ryans chose a 58-yard attempt over fourth-and-1 in the third quarter, which came up short.

Vikings 9, Bears 3. Chicago scored 59 in Week 1 and three in the rain against Brian Flores. Isaiah Rodgers recovered a goal-line fumble and blocked a field goal; Dallas Turner had two sacks including the game-ender. Flores has blitzed on 73.6% of dropbacks, the highest early-season rate since 2009, and per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell the Bears faced third-and-7 or longer eight times and converted two. Caleb Williams was 15 of 26 for 138 before the hamstring. Aaron Jones carried Minnesota with 105 yards.

Saints 24, Ravens 17. Our full review of the Ravens’ loss ran separately. Tyler Shough rallied New Orleans from 17-9 down for a second straight week, finishing with a 16-play drive and a fourth-and-goal sneak. His splits are extraordinary: 14.3 Total QBR through three quarters, 29th of 30 qualifiers, and 97.7 in the fourth and overtime, second in the league. He leads the NFL with 662 passing yards, and 350 of them have come in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Eagles 24, Titans 20. Philadelphia opened with three straight drives of 11-plus plays, then spent a 98-degree afternoon letting Tennessee back in. Amani Hooker’s end-zone interception, returned 92 yards, set up the Titans’ first touchdown; a second Hurts pick set up the go-ahead field goal with 1:56 left. Hurts then accounted for all 65 yards on the winning drive, hitting Darius Cooper with nine seconds to go. He had nine third-down conversions, a career high, and converted three third-and-12-or-longers, also a career high, while averaging 7.9 yards to go. Saquon Barkley took a stinger on the first play and finished with 9 yards on four carries; Dallas Goedert’s knee has put him on injured reserve.

Patriots 20, Steelers 3. New England lost six players in the first half and won by 17. TreVeyon Henderson scored on a 39-yard run in his season debut and out-snapped Rhamondre Stevenson 32 to 15 after Stevenson’s early fumble. Christian Barmore’s strip-sack of Aaron Rodgers was returned 19 yards for a touchdown by Elijah Ponder. Rodgers was sacked four times, fumbled twice, and is 8 of 24 under pressure this season. Christian Gonzalez shadowed DK Metcalf at times and held him to four catches for 27.

Packers 20, Jets 17 (OT). Green Bay snapped a six-game skid on Trey Smack’s 26-yarder after trailing 17-7 in the fourth, with 199 total net yards and 133 yards lost to 14 penalties. Jayden Reed (neck) and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele (knee) were carted off on consecutive plays of the opening drive; by the end the Packers had lost both of their top two left guards and were playing a rookie making his NFL debut. Jordan Love has taken 18 quarterback hits in two weeks. Lukas Van Ness had nine pressures and 1.5 sacks and stuffed the Jets on third and fourth down late in regulation. Aaron Glenn’s clock management — no timeout before the Packers’ punt, ball first in overtime — will be the story in New York all week.

Browns 23, Buccaneers 19. Deshaun Watson went 24 of 30 for 238 and two touchdowns, his first win since September 2024, with the lowest average depth of target of his career at 3.7 yards. Cleveland ran for 44 yards and won on the road. A two-hour, twelve-minute lightning delay suspended the game at the two-minute warning with Tampa at the Cleveland 28; when it resumed, a Tristan Wirfs holding penalty set the Bucs back and Baker Mayfield’s fourth-down throw sailed wide. Tampa lost at home as an 8.5-point favorite and is 2-9 in its last 11.

Broncos 20, Jaguars 13. Denver trailed 13-3 with its offense 3 of 18 on third down across six quarters. Then Jaylen Waddle went for 138 yards on eight catches and rookie Jonah Coleman scored the go-ahead touchdown after J.K. Dobbins left with a hamstring. Bo Nix was not sacked and averaged 9.3 yards an attempt. Denver held Jacksonville to 95 rushing yards and Trevor Lawrence to 189, pressured him on 45.2% of his dropbacks, and got a third-quarter goal-line stand that turned the game.

Raiders 26, Chargers 14. Two home losses as touchdown-plus favorites, and Jim Harbaugh has never started a season 0-2 anywhere. Justin Herbert threw two interceptions — both to Hezekiah Masses — and the Chargers fumbled six times. Joe Alt had two false starts, the guard spot rotated, both tight ends got hurt, and they conceded a fourth-down conversion with twelve men on the field coming out of a timeout. Cody White caught two touchdowns; Tre Tucker had five for 119 with Brock Bowers out.

Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7. In his first start since 2024, Drew Lock threw for 235 and three touchdowns, all to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had 155 yards — more than Arizona’s entire offense. Seattle is the only team yet to allow a play of 25 yards, and Arizona did not score on its final seven possessions.

Cowboys 37, Commanders 20. Dak Prescott went 26 of 32 for 279 and four touchdowns, breaking Tony Romo’s franchise record of 248. CeeDee Lamb had 153 yards and two scores. Dallas scored on seven of eight possessions. Daniels was 11 of 17 for 96 with seven carries for 69 when Chris Paul stepped on his foot on the last play of the half.

49ers 35, Dolphins 13. San Francisco scored touchdowns on its first five possessions. Miami held the ball long enough that the 49ers ran two first-half drives — the first team to do that since November 2024 — and scored on both. Brock Purdy went 20 of 22 for 287 and leads the league in QBR at 94.9. Twenty-one of Miami’s first 26 snaps came in San Francisco territory and produced three points.

Chiefs 33, Colts 30 (OT). Patrick Mahomes threw 47 times for 382 yards and three touchdowns and Kansas City gained 523. Indianapolis reached the red zone in overtime on a 48-yard Daniel Jones strike to Laquon Treadwell, ran twice for minus-3, settled for a tying field goal, and watched Mahomes drive for Harrison Butker’s winner. The Colts have lost nine straight.

Monday: Rams 28, Giants 6. Matthew Stafford threw for 327 and four touchdowns, Davante Adams caught eight for 195 and two scores, and the Rams outgained New York 481 to 182 without Puka Nacua or Myles Garrett. Aaron Donald played 32 snaps in his first game in 32 months, with a 0.75-second get-off that Next Gen Stats ranked tied for third-fastest by any defensive tackle this season. Stafford’s 426th career touchdown pass moved him past Philip Rivers into sixth all-time. Dart left on the seventh snap; Jameis Winston went 11 of 27 for 111 with an end-zone interception.

Power Rankings

Pre = our preseason ranking. DVOA = FTN total DVOA through Week 2. ESPN = Week 3 power rankings. NFL.com = Week 3 power rankings. Prisco = Pete Prisco’s Week 3 rankings at CBS Sports.

San Francisco. DVOA has the 49ers first outright at 78.0%, second on offense and fifth on defense, and they are one of only three teams inside the top ten on both sides of the ball. We have them third anyway, on the opposition. Their two wins came against a Rams team that had flown 16 hours to Melbourne and back, and a Miami team that is last in DVOA and has not held a lead for a single second this season. Barnwell made the same point — the 49ers may not have played a difficult slate yet. We spent this piece discounting Chicago’s 59 points because Carolina allowed them and Buffalo’s four sacks because Detroit played three backup linemen. The same discipline applies here. Buffalo has beaten Houston and Detroit; Seattle has won twelve straight and has not allowed a play of 25 yards. Nobody outside has San Francisco first either.

Baltimore. Week 2 DVOA has the Ravens third overall at 38.3% and third on offense — after a loss. FTN’s Aaron Schatz calls it a reverse post-game win expectancy game: on the underlying stats he would expect Baltimore to win 70% of the time, citing a better running game, a better defensive performance and a 5.6-to-4.7 edge in yards per play. DAVE has them sixth. NFL.com has them fifth. ESPN dropped them 3 to 7. Prisco dropped them 6 to 11.

The Jets are the widest disagreement on the board. Eighth in DVOA with the third-best defense, and 25th to 27th everywhere else. Schatz gives them a 78% post-game win expectancy in a game they lost, which supports our read that 5-12 was too low. We have moved them eight spots and still have them below the model by a dozen.

Pittsburgh is the hardest entry to write, and NFL.com put it best: a defensive front among the most complete in football attached to an offense that cannot function. First in defensive DVOA, 31st on offense, dead last in pass-rush win rate. We have moved them down two and could defend anything from 14th to 24th.

The five biggest movers from August. San Francisco up eleven, Las Vegas up ten, Minnesota up nine, the Jets up eight, Kansas City up seven — and the Chargers down nineteen.

Projected Win Totals and Division Finishes

Thirty-two wins are banked league-wide, leaving 240 to project across fifteen remaining games per team. The set below sums to 272. Preseason numbers are from our August preview.

AFC East

The Jets move most. Eighth in DVOA, third-best defense, no Geno Smith turnover in 74 dropbacks, and two games they could have won. Miami is last in DVOA at -69.5% and is the only team that has not held a lead for a single second this season.

AFC North

Holding Baltimore at 11-6 after a home loss is the call we would most expect to be challenged, and DVOA is the reason we are comfortable. Cincinnati is 2-0 and leads the division today; the two head-to-head meetings decide it. Pittsburgh gets a win back on the strength of the best defense in football.

AFC South

Houston at 10-7 from 0-2 requires 10-5 the rest of the way, which is the most aggressive projection on this page. The case: DAVE has them eighth, their two losses came to Buffalo and Cincinnati, and the defense has largely held up. The case against: 32nd in red-zone touchdown rate since the start of last season, and Nico Collins is hurt.

AFC West

The four-win swing on the Chargers is the largest revision in the set, and it is still charitable. ESPN’s Benjamin Solak reads their next seven – at Buffalo, at Seattle, Denver, at Kansas City, at the Rams, Houston, at Baltimore — as a stretch where three wins would be a miracle. Las Vegas gains three and we are still below DVOA, which has them tenth.

NFC East

Both quarterback injuries land here. Dallas rises on an offense that scored on seven of eight possessions and grades fourth in DVOA – the reverse of the preseason thesis, which was built on the defense becoming average.

NFC North

Minnesota is the biggest riser in the set. Ninth in DVOA with the fourth-best defense, 2-0 with two division wins, and Kyler Murray back this week. Chicago holds: Williams is week-to-week rather than out, and a rain game against Flores is not a season.

NFC South

We took the over on New Orleans in August and Schatz had them 31st. Two fourth quarters later, they are the division favorite. No NFC team in 30 years has started 0-3 and made the playoffs, which is what Tampa Bay is playing for Sunday.

NFC West

The division flips. We had the Rams at 13-4 and first; Seattle is 2-0, has not allowed a play of 25 yards, and won by 24 with a backup quarterback. The Rams are 12-5 and second on the tiebreaker we cannot yet project. San Francisco leads DVOA outright at 78.0% and is still third here, which tells you what we think of the division.

Projected Seeding

AFC: 1. Bills 12-5 · 2. Chiefs 12-5 · 3. Ravens 11-6 · 4. Texans 10-7 · 5. Bengals 10-7 · 6. Broncos 10-7 · 7. Patriots 10-7. First out: Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Jacksonville, all 9-8.

NFC: 1. Seahawks 12-5 · 2. Eagles 11-6 · 3. Vikings 11-6 · 4. Saints 9-8 · 5. Rams 12-5 · 6. 49ers 11-6 · 7. Lions 10-7. First out: Dallas 10-7.

Two changes from August worth naming. We had Kansas City as the first AFC team out at 10-7; they are now the projected second seed. And we had the Chargers winning the West at 10-7; they are now 6-11 and out of the picture entirely. Those two calls were the ones we flagged in the preview as most likely to be wrong. Both were, in opposite directions.

Week 3 Preview

Thursday, Sept. 24th

Atlanta at Green Bay, 8:15 — Packers -7, total 43.5. ESPN gives Green Bay a 74.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Michael Penix Jr. is expected to make his first start since tearing an ACL last November, for a team that has not run a red-zone play this season – the first in 18 years to manage that through two games. Green Bay, on three days’ rest, lost 133 yards to 14 penalties on Sunday, gained 199 net yards, and will field one of the league’s least experienced lines without Reed and with Josh Jacobs on the commissioner exempt list. Green Bay is last in the league in pass-block win rate at 18%; Za’Darius Smith leads all edge rushers in pass-rush win rate.

Our Pick: Packers. Green Bay is 22nd in DVOA and does not look right. Atlanta is 31st with the fifth-worst two-week pass offense since 1977.

Sunday, Sept. 27th — 1:00

Carolina at Cleveland — Panthers -3, total 42.5. ESPN gives Carolina a 63.5% chance to win.

Match-Up to Watch: Bryce Young is averaging 8.0 yards per dropback, fifth in the league, after 5.6 over the past two seasons. Cleveland won in Tampa with 44 rushing yards and Watson’s career-low depth of target.

Our Pick: Panthers.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh — Bengals -3.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Cincinnati a 61.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Pittsburgh has the best defense in football by DVOA and the 31st-ranked offense. Cincinnati’s rebuilt front is tied for the league lead with eight sacks and is allowing 16.5 points a game; Houston sacked Burrow five times. Whichever line holds up decides it – and Cincinnati’s defensive front is the weakest inclusion on our published top-8, with the Week 4 republish coming.

Our Pick: Bengals. It’s a division road game against the league’s best defense so far by DVOA. This could go the other way.

Houston at Indianapolis — Texans -3, total 43.5. ESPN gives Houston a 52.5% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Two 0-2 teams, market on the road team, model near a coin flip. Houston is 32nd in red-zone touchdown rate since the start of last season; Indianapolis has the worst defense in DVOA and just allowed 523 yards. Collins’s hamstring and Alec Pierce’s heel are both in doubt.

Our Pick: Texans.

Kansas City at Miami — Chiefs -11.5, total 45.5. ESPN gives Kansas City an 85.8% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Miami is last in DVOA and has not led for a single second this season. Kansas City held the ball for all but 2:22 of the third quarter Sunday night.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

L.A. Chargers at Buffalo — Bills -7, total 50.5. ESPN gives Buffalo a 78.9% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Buffalo has the best offense in DVOA at 56.8%, and Allen is averaging a career-best 9.7 yards per attempt on his deepest average target depth since his rookie year. The Chargers arrive with 13 offensive penalties, seven fumbles and a quarterback Solak calls the most visibly rattled he has been.

Our Pick: Bills.

New England at Jacksonville — Jaguars -3, total 45.5. ESPN gives Jacksonville a 57.5% chance to win.

Key to the Game: The interior. Denver pressured Lawrence on 45.2% of his dropbacks and he completed 33.3% under pressure against 76.5% clean; New England has Barmore, first among all defensive tackles in pass-rush win rate, and Milton Williams. Jacksonville’s own front is thin – 30th in team pass-rush win rate, with its tackles producing five pressures on 106 snaps and Josh Hines-Allen shut out on 24 rushes in Denver. Against that, New England is missing A.J. Brown (high ankle), Mike Onwenu (broken right ankle) and three more defenders from Sunday, in Florida heat with no depth.

Our Pick: Jaguars. Low confidence, and Solak argues the other way convincingly. New England’s defense is sixth in DVOA, but the attrition and the setting are hard to ignore.

N.Y. Jets at Detroit — Lions -6.5, total 48.5. ESPN gives Detroit a 75.5% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Does Sheppard blitz like that again? Detroit is 28th in defensive DVOA after ten days off. The Jets are eighth overall with the third-best defense.

Our Pick: Lions. The numbers say this is closer than the line.

Seattle at Washington — Seahawks -6.5, total 39.5. ESPN gives Seattle a 67.2% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Marcus Mariota’s first start against the only defense yet to allow a 25-yard play, in the lowest total on the board. Washington is 28th in DVOA and has lost Daniels, Laremy Tunsil for most of the year, and Sam Cosmi.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Tennessee at N.Y. Giants — Giants -3, total 40.5. ESPN gives Tennessee a 54.6% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Dart’s knee. Winston went 11 of 27 for 111 in relief and the Giants gained 182 yards. Cam Ward ran for two touchdowns against Philadelphia, the fifth Titans or Oilers quarterback in fifty seasons to do that in a game, and Tennessee nearly stole one in Nashville.

Our Pick: Titans. A true tossup, taken on the injury alone. If Dart plays, it flips back. The line and the model now disagree — the number moved from Giants -6 to -3 while ESPN flipped to Tennessee.

4:05

Arizona at San Francisco — 49ers -8.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives San Francisco a 90.3% chance to win.

Key to the Game: San Francisco leads DVOA at 78.0%, second on offense and fifth on defense, with a receiver room down Demarcus Robinson, Mike Evans, De’Zhaun Stribling and Ricky Pearsall. Purdy leads the league in QBR. Arizona gained 151 yards Sunday.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay — Vikings -1.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Minnesota a 52.2% chance to win.

Key to the Game: The league’s most aggressive blitz against a line that has allowed seven sacks and a quarterback with four turnovers, ranked 29th of 32 in EPA per dropback. Two complications: Kyler Murray returns from the protocol, upgrading a 26th-ranked offense, and a dome team blitzing three of every four dropbacks in Tampa heat in the late window needs fresh legs late. No NFC team in 30 years has started 0-3 and made the playoffs, so Tampa is playing its season.

Our Pick: Vikings. CBS Sports is taking Tampa. Do wonder how the Vikings will do in the Tampa heat.

4:25

Baltimore at Dallas — Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro — Ravens -3, total 52.5. ESPN gives Baltimore a 53.9% chance to win.

Our full preview is here. Third and seventh in DVOA. Dallas has given up the third-most rushing yards in the league and grades 32nd in team run-block win rate; Baltimore is first in run blocking and averaging 155 rushing yards a game. The counterweight is that Jackson’s two lowest pass-block win rates as a starter have come in the first two weeks. Field conditions seem like a question.

Our Pick: Ravens.

Las Vegas at New Orleans — Saints -3, total 43.5. ESPN gives New Orleans a 64.3% chance to win.

Match-Up to Watch: Shough leads the league in passing yards and has taken the second-most sacks; Las Vegas is tied for the league lead with eight. New Orleans lost Kelvin Banks Jr. to a sprained ankle and is 28th in pass-block win rate. Las Vegas is last in the league at 2.8 yards a carry, so the Jeanty plan may not be available.

Our Pick: Saints. Not an overly confident pick. The Raiders are 10th in DVOA to New Orleans’ 24th.

8:20 — Sunday Night

L.A. Rams at Denver — Rams -2.5, total 45.5. ESPN gives the Rams a 65.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: The Rams looked like themselves Monday — 481 yards to 182, four Stafford touchdowns, 195 for Adams, Donald back after 32 months. DVOA has them eighth on offense and ninth on defense, one of only three teams top-ten in both, and third in DAVE; they are 14th overall only because they are dead last in special teams again. Denver is giving up 157.5 rushing yards a game, fourth-most in the league, after finishing second-best last season, and may be down to a rookie back.

Our Pick: Rams. Denver is at home, and had another day to prepare; but still taking the Rams.

Monday, Sept. 28th

Philadelphia at Chicago, 8:15 — Eagles -3.5, total 44.5. ESPN gives Philadelphia a 57.1% chance to win.

Key to the Game: Ben Johnson has called Williams week-to-week and says Tyson Bagent can run the offense without changing the scheme. Philadelphia is the lowest-ranked 2-0 team at 16th in DVOA, ranks fifth-lowest in yards before contact per rush, and has now lost Goedert to injured reserve. Chicago’s run game took Vic Fangio’s defense apart last season.

Our Pick: Eagles. Solak picks Chicago. We will take Hurts, who was the best player on the field in Nashville.

The post 2026 NFL: Previewing Week 3 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Our picks going forward are straight winners. We’ll show the line and the total, but we’re only formally picking the game.

Week 1 Quick Hits

Seahawks 13 Patriots 10 – Seattle raised the banner and needed three fourth-quarter interceptions to beat the team it beat in February. Sam Darnold hurt his hip on the fifth play of the game on a Dre’Mont Jones sack; Mike Macdonald said initial tests ruled out a break. Drew Lock, who threw three passes all of last season and had not taken a first-team rep in practice that week, went 5 of 7 for 89 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter. He hit reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 45 on fourth-and-1 to tie it after a Nehemiah Pritchett interception, and Jason Myers won it from 26 after Julian Love picked Maye on the next drive. Josh Jobe’s toe-tap in the end zone ended it. Drake Maye was 17 of 22 through three quarters, then threw three picks in the fourth, the first a deep ball to a double-covered Romeo Doubs with a checkdown open in the flat. Maye called it unacceptable. Christian Gonzalez blanked Smith-Njigba across ten coverage matchups. New England ran 31 times for 109 yards, with Rhamondre Stevenson and Corey Kiner combining for 62 yards of which 59 came after contact, and Maye was pressured on 38.1% of his dropbacks while taking only three sacks. A.J. Brown left in the third quarter with a high ankle sprain.

49ers 27 Rams 7 – The preseason favorite opened 10,000 miles from home in front of 100,021 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground and got run off it. San Francisco scored the final 24 points. Brock Purdy threw for 205 and three touchdowns — Demarcus Robinson on a 39-yard post, Mike Evans over new Rams corner Jaylen Watson, and Deebo Samuel to cap a 99-yard drive. Raheem Morris, coordinating against the team he coached for, held the NFL’s best 2025 offense to 290 yards, allowed the third-lowest EPA per play of the week, and stopped Matthew Stafford on a fourth-down sneak from the San Francisco 1. Stafford went 15 of 25 for 155 and said they had two good drives and that it started with him. Fred Warner and Nick Bosa both returned from long absences and were immediately themselves; Bosa hit Stafford on the first snap of the game. The Rams did not sack Purdy once. Myles Garrett recorded no tackles and three total pressures across 39 defensive snaps; he acknowledged afterward that his knee has him at less than full health, and has since had arthroscopic surgery and gone on injured reserve for at least four games. The Rams’ next four opponents are the Giants, Broncos, Eagles and Bills. San Francisco arrived in Australia a week early. The Rams landed roughly a day before a 10:35 a.m. kickoff, part of a years-in-the-making plan to keep the players on California time — the team flew 32 hours inside three days — and Sean McVay said he doesn’t believe the travel plan is the reason they lost.

Bills 36 Texans 31 – The best game on the early slate delivered. Josh Allen went 20 of 29 for 334 with two touchdowns and ran for two more, including the 34-yard winner to Joshua Palmer on third-and-11 inside the final two minutes — one snap after Kamari Lassiter dropped an interception in the end zone that would have ended it. Allen had a 28.2 Total QBR against Houston over the past two seasons and a league-best 72.8 against everyone else. Matt Burke’s defense played zone on 24 of Allen’s 32 dropbacks after playing man nearly 39 percent of the time in Houston’s two previous wins over Buffalo, and Allen posted a passer rating over 129 against both. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. did not sack him once. The Joe Brady wrinkle was Dalton Kincaid, who ran routes on 71% of Allen’s dropbacks after averaging 58% from 2023 to 2025 and caught five passes for a career-high 130 yards with catches of 35, 38 and 40. DJ Moore went for 100 and a score in his Buffalo debut and drew a 46-yard pass interference. Buffalo ran 13 personnel on 36.8% of snaps; the Rams led the NFL last season at 30.4%. Buffalo averaged 7.9 yards a play, the most Houston has allowed since DeMeco Ryans was hired in 2023, and it was the first time a Ryans defense gave up 400 yards since late in the 2024 season. Houston ran 73 plays to Buffalo’s 52 and held the ball for 36:17 and lost anyway. David Montgomery scored three times on 79 scrimmage yards. C.J. Stroud threw for 274 and two scores with no interceptions but lost two fumbles, both on Greg Rousseau strip-sacks, the second against a three-man rush at the Buffalo 28 in the closing seconds. Houston’s defense led the league in yards allowed last season and gave up its most points since December 2023.

Ravens 41 Colts 23 – Baltimore outgained Indianapolis 506 to 251 and led 31-13 at the half, the fifth time in franchise history they have scored 31 before the break. Derrick Henry ran 24 times for 144 and three touchdowns at 32, moving to 125 career rushing scores — third all-time behind Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson — and past Marvin Harrison into ninth in total touchdowns. Lamar Jackson went 17 of 25 for 324 with a touchdown through the air and another on the ground, and escaped a sack near midfield to scramble for a first down on third-and-16 in the first quarter. Roquan Smith intercepted Daniel Jones on the Colts’ second drive and Marlon Humphrey stripped Jonathan Taylor on the next one; Baltimore converted both and led 28-6. Zay Flowers had five catches for 150 and a 54-yard touchdown before pulling up with a hamstring in the second quarter. It was the first time in the franchise’s 31-year history that Baltimore had a 300-yard passer, a 150-yard receiver and a 100-yard rusher in the same game. Jonathan Taylor ran 19 times for 98 and two scores at 5.2 a carry. Declan Doyle, one of seventeen play callers either new to a team or doing the job for the first time this season, got touchdown drives on four of Baltimore’s first five possessions, and would have had five but for a holding call on center Jovaughn Gwyn that erased a touchdown pass to Ja’Kobi Lane. The Ravens took ten dropbacks from under center, the most Jackson has ever had in a game, and he went 6 of 8 for 114 yards from those looks — 14.3 an attempt with a 116.7 rating — including the 49-yarder to Zay Flowers off a boot. Henry gained 130 of his yards on nineteen under-center carries at 6.8 a pop. It was the first time in three years Indianapolis has given up 500 yards. Daniel Jones, nine months off a torn Achilles, was 19 of 31 for 166 and carried the ball once for four yards. Calais Campbell, 40, made his 260th career start, joining Jim Marshall and Bruce Smith as the only defensive linemen to reach that number.

Bengals 33 Buccaneers 27 – Cincinnati’s rebuilt defense forced four turnovers and had four sacks, and 24 of the 33 points came off Tampa Bay mistakes. Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook, both free-agent additions, each forced and recovered a fumble, and Mafe added a sack. Demetrius Knight Jr. scooped a Baker Mayfield fumble and returned it for a touchdown, Cincinnati’s first scoop-and-score since Sam Hubbard’s 99-yarder in the January 2023 wild card. Three of Tampa’s first four possessions ended in fumbles, all converted into touchdowns. Mayfield, who signed a three-year, $165 million extension this week, put three of them on the ground — two while being sacked, one stretching for extra yardage at the Cincinnati 4 with the Buccaneers about to score — and still finished 23 of 28 for 216 with a rushing touchdown. Joe Burrow was 25 of 35 for 254 and scored on six of seven drives after an opening three-and-out, the exception being a pick-six to rookie Josiah Trotter, who became the first player with a sack and a pick-six in his debut since sacks became an official statistic in 1982. Evan McPherson hit four field goals including a 55 and a 58, the first Bengal with two from 55-plus in a game. Ja’Marr Chase, questionable all week with a knee, drew four targets; Mike Gesicki led the team with seven. Cincinnati led 27-10 early in the third quarter and then stopped, averaging minus-0.19 EPA per play in the second half, second-worst of the week behind New England. The Bengals ran nine plays from under center and did not succeed on any of them.

Jaguars 34 Browns 10 – Trevor Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 245 and four touchdowns with a career-best 150.6 rating, and Jacksonville scored on six of its first seven possessions. The touchdowns went to Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, Jakobi Meyers and rookie Josh Cameron, three of them wide open. Washington, a pending free agent in the middle of contract negotiations, caught the first one diving and flashed a pay-me sign. Deshaun Watson threw an interception on the opening drive of his first start in nearly two years, nearly threw another on the second possession, recovered his own fumble, and was sacked five times. Cleveland went 1 for 8 on third down, took 11 penalties, and failed to score a touchdown on both trips inside the 20. Their only points before a 46-yard Watson-to-Denzel Boston score with 1:52 left came after a 74-yard Raheim Sanders kick return. Watson had been 7-0 in his career against Jacksonville. Lawrence went 10 of 12 for 179 and three scores on throws travelling ten or more yards, and had two tight-window completions all afternoon. New Cleveland coordinator Mike Rutenberg, replacing Jim Schwartz, played zone on 20 of Lawrence’s 25 dropbacks, blitzed three times and generated no quick pressures. Jared Verse did not record a hurry in his Browns debut.

Steelers 20 Falcons 13 – Atlanta’s quarterback question got answered in the worst way available. Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa were both declared out, so Cooper Rush started — a free agent until training camp, with almost no first-team work, reportedly dealing with back spasms the day before. Kevin Stefanski wasn’t going to expose Jack Strand in Week 1, so Atlanta ran an extremely conservative plan and still gave up both Pittsburgh touchdowns off Rush turnovers. T.J. Watt had two sacks and a 35-yard pick-six on a telegraphed dump-off. Pittsburgh also rested him: Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig each played around 40 snaps with Jack Sawyer taking 23, and 37-year-old Cam Heyward played 33 of 61 after leading all NFL defensive linemen in snaps last season. Heyward batted down three passes. Aaron Rodgers was 24 of 40 for 221 and a touchdown to Pat Freiermuth, with DK Metcalf dropping several. Per Next Gen Stats, Rodgers averaged 9.2 air yards per target, his highest as a Steeler, with a 2.95-second time to throw, his third-highest — and Patrick Graham played exclusively zone on Atlanta’s dropbacks after Pittsburgh was man-heavy a year ago. Rush threw two interceptions, and Atlanta managed only two drives all afternoon that gained more than 30 yards. The Falcons were also without both of their intended starting edge rushers — Jalon Walker tore an ACL and is out for the season, and James Pearce Jr. is suspended for the first eight games — which is why Za’Darius Smith, signed less than a month ago at 34 after retiring midway through last season, was the one getting home. He sacked Rodgers twice. Bijan Robinson accounted for 173 of Atlanta’s 238 yards. Kyle Pitts was shut out. Nick Folk, one of the most reliable kickers in the league the past three seasons, missed two. Atlanta took nine penalties for 96 yards.

Lions 31 Saints 30 (OT) – Detroit led 21-0 and needed a stop on a two-point conversion in overtime to survive. Jahmyr Gibbs carried a career-high 29 times for 156 and two scores with five catches. Jared Goff was 26 of 39 for 206 with two touchdowns and no turnovers, both scores going to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who finished with 67 receiving yards, and got the break of the afternoon when Chase Young knocked the ball loose on a sack and New Orleans returned it for a touchdown, only for review to rule Goff’s arm had started forward. Dan Campbell said outright he thought they’d lost that one. Tyler Shough threw two interceptions and lost a fumble and then went 35 of 56 for 410 and three touchdowns, converting a fourth-and-12 from his own 23 and hitting Chris Olave for 43 to set up the tying score with 1:07 left. Detroit went three-and-out and Ryan Wright missed from 62 as time expired. In overtime Kellen Moore took the two-point try rather than extend the game, saying he didn’t want to give Detroit the ball back with 1:34. New Orleans outgained Detroit 469 to 369 and lost on the turnover margin. Christian Mahogany was carted off with a right knee injury.

Jets 23 Titans 10 – New York never trailed, out-gained Tennessee 367-195, held the ball nearly 39 minutes and put together a 19-play drive that consumed almost twelve minutes of the first half. Breece Hall ran for 102 and a score. Geno Smith went 19 of 24 for 215 with no interceptions in his return to the team that drafted him, coming off a league-high 17 picks a year ago. The defense that finished 32nd in passing EPA in 2025 without recording a single interception got three sacks with Aaron Glenn calling it himself, one from No. 2 overall pick David Bailey and one from Kingsley Enagbare. Cam Ward was 19 of 32 for 140 with a late touchdown to Elic Ayomanor and said the Titans are better than what they showed. Robert Saleh, calling the defense himself against the team that fired him five games into 2024, said the Jets got after them. Tennessee pushed the opening kickoff out of bounds, burned a timeout to avoid twelve men on the field, and lost a Chimere Dike fumble on a kickoff after he’d already been checked for a concussion on his first punt return. Glenn deactivated Blake Grupe, claimed off waivers from Indianapolis on Aug. 31, and elevated Jason Sanders from the practice squad, who hit from 33, 51 and 52.

Eagles 24 Commanders 22 – Washington was a yard from overtime. Jayden Daniels found Antonio Williams on third-and-goal from the 1 with 1:01 left, and Moro Ojomo blew up a shovel pass to backup tight end John Bates on the two-point attempt. Nick Sirianni is 6-0 in openers. Jalen Hurts was 14 of 25 for 203 with three touchdowns — two of them to Dallas Goedert on third down, both down the middle of the field — and added 46 rushing yards including a 22-yard scramble on third-and-18 that saved the game. Dontayvion Wicks, acquired from Green Bay in April, had a career-long 64-yard catch and a touchdown. Zack Baun had 12 tackles, a sack and a tipped pass inside the final two minutes. DeVonta Smith, the new No. 1, finished with three catches. Philadelphia’s line was the problem: three sacks allowed, constant pressure, four of the team’s five penalties on linemen, two holding calls on Cam Jurgens, and a third quarter that produced 59 yards and one first down. Daniels went 18 of 34 for 164 and two scores behind a line missing Laremy Tunsil, and Washington ran for 132. Dan Quinn said the miscues were the margin — a high snap cost an extra point, Drew Stevens missed from 54, and Stefon Diggs took a 15-yard unsportsmanlike for hugging the goalpost after his touchdown, which is why Washington kicked the extra point there rather than going for two.

Vikings 39 Packers 22 – The one game where the book and the model took opposite sides, and the book won it. Kyler Murray played eleven snaps, threw an interception, and left with a concussion on a slide that drew an unnecessary roughness flag on Javon Bullard. Carson Wentz, brought back this year essentially as a mentor, went 12 of 19 for 133 with three touchdowns and a 123.5 rating, and Minnesota scored the game’s final 29 points. Two of the three went to Justin Jefferson, who finished with eight catches for 92 and matched his entire 2025 touchdown total, and Jefferson caught the two-point conversion that gave Minnesota its first lead. Minnesota hit Jordan Love fifteen times, sacked him four, and held Green Bay to 3.1 yards a carry. Three of Minnesota’s four second-half touchdown drives started in Green Bay territory, following a long kickoff return and two turnovers. Green Bay reportedly became the first team in NFL history to lead by 12-plus with twenty minutes remaining and lose by 17-plus. The turn was a Matt LaFleur decision: up five, he waved off a made 40-yard Trey Smack field goal to take an offside penalty and go for fourth-and-1, and Jordan Love was stuffed by rookie Domonique Orange. Minnesota then drove the other way while Green Bay committed four defensive penalties on the same possession, including an illegal contact that erased a third-down sack and a holding call that erased an end-zone interception. Love finished 21 of 42 for 387 and two touchdowns to Christian Watson, including an 81-yard career-long, behind a line that gave up four sacks and two fumbles with Aaron Banks inactive and Donovan Jennings making his first career start. Dallas Turner was credited with nine pressures, Andrew Van Ginkel with two sacks and the strip that set up the clinching score.

Bears 59 Panthers 37 – The highest-scoring opener in NFL history, eight points past the previous mark of 88 set in Tampa Bay’s 48-40 win over New Orleans in 2018. Chicago’s 59 tied the 2019 Ravens for the most points ever scored on offense in a season opener and broke a franchise record for an opener that had stood since 1948. Caleb Williams threw for 269 and two scores and ran for 65 and two more on ten carries, all rushing career highs, and hit 70 percent completions for the first time under Ben Johnson. The efficiency is the part to take seriously: Williams’ off-target rate was a league-worst 20.2% last season and came in at 13.8% here, and his completion percentage over expectation went from minus-6.7 — worst among regular starters in 2025 — to plus-11.4, third-best of Week 1. Chicago ran for 291 as a team at 7.5 a carry, its most since 1984, and produced four runs of 25-plus yards, matching its entire 2025 total. D’Andre Swift, extended for $33.75 million this week, went for 124 and three touchdowns; Kyle Monangai added 100 including a 61-yard score. Seven touchdowns on twelve drives after an opening-possession fumble, 10 of 14 on third down, four for four in the red zone, 552 total yards. Kalif Raymond, 32 and signed this offseason, led the team in targets, catches and yards. Colston Loveland did not catch a pass. Carolina’s 16.1% pressure rate was the lowest of any defense in Week 1. Johnson spent his postgame on the defense, which allowed 478 yards and 24 first downs and never got Williams on the ground. Bryce Young threw for 361 and three scores in the best opener of his career, with Jalen Coker going for 138 and two. Carolina lost it on three turnovers — a muffed punt by Jimmy Horn Jr., a Tetairoa McMillan fumble on a scoring drive, and a Young interception — and on penalties, including two by Derrick Brown in the red zone that extended Chicago drives and a Trevis Gipson offsides on third-and-2 that would have given Carolina the ball back.

Cardinals 26 Chargers 14 – The week’s biggest underdog won on the road. Los Angeles ran 51 plays to Arizona’s 72 and held the ball 22 minutes to 37. Justin Herbert was 17 of 27 for 209 with a touchdown and an interception and was sacked three times, including on fourth-and-goal from the 3 before halftime when Trey Pipkins, in at left guard, was beaten inside immediately. The Chargers’ fourth quarter was a blocked punt recovered at their own 3, an interception on a double-covered deep ball, a turnover on downs, and a sequence of incompletion, false start, false start and holding that produced second-and-30. Los Angeles gained 117 yards in the second half, and Arizona held the ball for 19 of the first 30 minutes while averaging 4.5 yards a carry against an interior of Dalvin Tomlinson, Jamaree Caldwell and Teair Tart. Omarion Hampton averaged under half a yard before contact on twelve carries. Jim Harbaugh had been 6-0 in NFL season openers. Mike LaFleur became the first Arizona head coach to win his debut since Don Coryell in 1973, in the stadium where he called plays for the Rams last season. Jacoby Brissett threw for 277 and opened the game with a 27-yard completion to Trey McBride. Jeremiyah Love, questionable with an ankle and the entire Arizona backfield after James Conner and Trey Benson went on IR, scored on a 5-yard run. Chad Ryland hit four field goals. Ladd McConkey had 60 yards on the opening drive and 22 the rest of the way before leaving with a hip injury.

Raiders 27 Dolphins 13 – Las Vegas opened with a 16-play, 93-yard drive that took 8:58; they had one touchdown drive of 90-plus yards all of last season, when they finished last in the NFL in both yardage and scoring. Kirk Cousins completed his first ten throws and finished 21 of 30 for 160 with three touchdowns and two interceptions, becoming the 15th quarterback to reach 300 career touchdown passes and moving one ahead of John Elway. Ashton Jeanty, whose ankle the staff said they were counting on him to play through, ran for 102 and caught six for 45 with two of Cousins’ scores. The Raiders did it without Brock Bowers, who did not play following knee surgery; Michael Mayer caught six in his place. Maxx Crosby had 1.5 of the five sacks on Malik Willis and became the third Raider with 70 for his career. Willis threw for 220 and said the sacks were on him. Klint Kubiak got a game ball and then pointed at a fourth quarter in which three of four drives ended in punts and the other in an interception.

Giants 28 Cowboys 20 – John Harbaugh’s first game outside purple. New York held the ball 36:40 to 23:20, punted once all night, and gave Dallas two second-half possessions. Jaxson Dart was 23 of 29 for 230 with three touchdowns and a 134.2 rating, attempted two throws past 20 yards and completed neither, and added 54 rushing yards while conspicuously sliding away from contact. Isaiah Likely caught all eight of his targets for 78 and two scores in his New York debut, and Patrick Ricard was on the field for 27 of the Giants’ 35 rushing plays. Cam Skattebo ran for 81 on 18 carries in his first game back from a broken fibula and dislocated ankle. Malik Nabers, playing 350 days after tearing an ACL, had six catches for 69. Dak Prescott was 22 of 34 for 175 with two touchdown passes and a costly interception — a third-down throwaway before halftime that Jevon Holland ran down, after which New York went 55 yards in 29 seconds. The Giants never sacked Prescott but pressured him nine times, and he went 0 for 8 throwing under pressure against 22 of 26 when clean. It was Dallas’s worst defensive performance by EPA per drive since 2017, and Christian Parker largely declined to blitz despite generating pressure on five of seven blitzes through three quarters. Dallas took eight penalties for 85 yards, including a taunting flag on Javonte Williams that pushed Brandon Aubrey’s extra point back far enough to miss it.

Chiefs 31 Broncos 10 – Kansas City ran 31 times for 220 yards against the defense that took their division away, and the Denver questions now outnumber everyone else’s. Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl MVP who signed a three-year, $43.05 million deal in free agency, carried 23 times for 173 — the most by a Chief since Jamaal Charles went for 226 in 2012, the year before Andy Reid arrived — including a 60-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1 to open the third quarter. Patrick Mahomes, in a brace nine months to the day after tearing his ACL, scored on a 15-yard run on the opening drive and threw for 184 and two scores. Reid also pulled out a play his staff found in black-and-white footage from the 1930s, lining Mahomes up in a three-point stance next to Justin Fields and shovelling to Walker for a two-yard score. Denver finished with 176 yards of offense in Davis Webb’s first game calling plays. Bo Nix threw for 131 with an interception and a lost fumble. Jaylen Waddle, acquired from Miami for a package of picks, caught one pass for two yards, and he and Courtland Sutton combined for three catches and 13 yards. Evan Engram had Denver’s only touchdown. Per Next Gen Stats, the Broncos missed 28 tackles, the most by any defense in a game since at least 2018, and Walker alone forced 14 of them — the most by a Chiefs player in a game over that same span.

Updated Power Rankings

We said in the preseason piece that we’d lean on the summer work and move for injuries and for evidence that actually changes a roster, not for one Sunday. That’s what this is. Seven teams moved more than two spots and five of those moves are injury-driven.

Week 1 DVOA, which Aaron Schatz is publishing with opponent adjustments for the first time this early in a season, lands close to this order at the top and far from it in the middle. It has San Francisco first, Jacksonville second and Baltimore third, with Chicago the top offense and Pittsburgh the top defense. It also produced something that has never happened in the fifty years of the metric: every 1-0 team graded positive and every 0-1 team graded negative. That is a warning as much as a finding. One week of results with no counter-evidence anywhere in the league is exactly the condition under which a rating system and a power ranking will agree with each other for no good reason.

The blended DAVE ratings, which are still 83% preseason forecast on offense and 98% on defense, tell a different story: Seattle first, Buffalo second, the Rams third despite ranking 29th in the week’s raw numbers, and Baltimore ninth.

1. Bills (3) — Beat a legitimate contender on the road, and FTN now has them as Super Bowl favorites.
2. Eagles (4) — Won. The offensive line is a real concern we did not flag in August.
3. Ravens (5) — A three-possession road win. Held here rather than higher because Indianapolis is a middling team and the receiver room is in trouble.
4. Rams (1) — Myles Garrett is on IR for at least four games and they lost by 20. DAVE still has them third, which is the case for not dropping them further.
5. Seahawks (2) — The defense won them the game, and DAVE has them first. Darnold’s hip determines where they sit next week.
6. Chiefs (11) — The largest rise on the board. Mahomes’ knee held, the defense graded second in Week 1 DVOA, and they ran for 220 with an undrafted rookie at left tackle.
7. 49ers (14) — Purdy, Warner and Bosa healthy in the same game, plus a line that led the league in rushing success rate.
8. Texans (7) — Lost at home and scored 31 on the team that led the NFL in yards allowed last year. Fourth in DAVE.
9. Lions (9) — Survived. The interior line is now a crisis.
10. Broncos (6) — 176 yards of offense and 28 missed tackles, the most by any defense in a game since at least 2018. Held at 10 rather than dropped further because one road loss in a division opener is one road loss.
11. Bengals (12) — Four takeaways is not a plan, but the personnel showed up.
12. Patriots (10) — A.J. Brown out several weeks from a thin room.
13. Chargers (8) — Lost at home as a nine-and-a-half-point favorite.
14. Bears (16) — The league’s top offense by DVOA and its 25th defense.
15. Jaguars (17) — Beat a team with no quarterback. Denver will tell us more.
16. Steelers (20) — The No. 1 defense in Week 1 DVOA, against a third-string quarterback. Moved up because we are picking them outright on the road this week and the two positions have to agree.
17. Packers (13) — Still without Parsons and Jacobs, and the line is now the bigger problem.
18. Vikings (19) — Won with their third quarterback.
19. Buccaneers (18) — Mayfield completed 82 percent and lost by himself.
20. Cowboys (15) — The defense was the whole thesis and it produced the worst EPA-per-drive performance the franchise has had since 2017.
21. Saints (21) — Came back from 21-0 on the road and lost by a point.
22. Giants (24) — Controlled a division game wire to wire.
23. Commanders (25) — Lost by two in Philadelphia without Tunsil.
24. Colts (22) — Outgained by 255 yards at home, and Kansas City is next.
25. Panthers (23) — Gave up 59 and 291 on the ground, and graded 32nd on defense.
26. Cardinals (30) — One road win doesn’t fix the quarterback room or the hardest schedule in the league.
27. Raiders (29) — Won without Bowers.
28. Falcons (26) — Held, because Cooper Rush is not the team.
29. Jets (28) — Won a road game by 13 and did it the boring way.
30. Titans (27) — Last in Week 1 DVOA at -88.3%.
31. Browns (31) — Held.
32. Dolphins (32) — Held.

Three Storylines to Watch

1. Mobile quarterbacks are moving under center, and Week 1 says it works.

Baltimore took ten dropbacks from under center against Indianapolis, the most Lamar Jackson has ever had in a game, and he went 6 of 8 for 114 yards from those looks with a 116.7 rating. Derrick Henry gained 130 of his 144 yards on nineteen under-center carries. That isn’t a Baltimore quirk. Washington and Arizona hired coordinators this offseason with the same intention for Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray, and the logic is identical everywhere: shotgun makes play-action legible to a defense, and it flattens the angles on outside zone. Put the quarterback under center and the run game gets harder to diagnose and the boot concepts come free.

The reason this matters beyond scheme trivia is that it was supposed to be the thing these quarterbacks couldn’t do. Jackson has taken about five percent of his career snaps under center, the second-fewest of any quarterback with fifty starts since 2018 — and he has the highest NFL QBR from under center over that stretch at 81.2. Eight seasons and three coordinators went by before anyone built a plan around it. Cincinnati, meanwhile, went the other way: Joe Burrow’s evolution was supposed to include more under-center work, and the Bengals ran nine such plays with a zero percent success rate.

If Week 1 is any indication, the Bears will be the RedZone must-watch team of the season — Schatz’s preseason DVOA projections had Chicago’s offense second in the league and its defense thirty-second, the widest split of any team, and the opener produced exactly that.

2. Three defenses changed their coverage identity, and two of them got torched.

Houston played zone on 24 of Josh Allen’s 32 dropbacks. In the two previous Texans wins over Buffalo, they played man nearly 39 percent of the time and Allen went 6 of 22 for 94 yards with an interception against it. Allen posted a rating over 129 against both coverages Sunday. Cleveland, under new coordinator Mike Rutenberg, replaced the aggressive man scheme Jim Schwartz ran with passive zone, blitzed three times, generated no quick pressures, and watched Trevor Lawrence go 10 of 12 for 179 and three touchdowns on throws past ten yards. Pittsburgh played nothing but zone against Atlanta and graded out as the No. 1 defense in Week 1 DVOA, though Cooper Rush is not the test that number implies.

All three now face a different problem in Week 2. Houston gets Burrow. Cleveland gets Baker Mayfield coming off an 82 percent completion day. Pittsburgh gets Drake Maye, whose three fourth-quarter interceptions all came from abandoning the underneath throws a zone defense is happy to concede. Patrick Graham also gets Joey Porter Jr. back from a back injury, and Porter is a press-man specialist, which is a strange fit for what the Steelers just showed.

3. Four teams spent heavily on defense this offseason. One week in, the returns look nothing alike.

Cincinnati sent a first-round pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence and signed Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger. Dallas added Rashan Gary, Von Miller, Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant and two first-round picks, and hired Christian Parker from Philadelphia. Buffalo fired Sean McDermott and handed the defense to Jim Leonhard. Houston returned the unit that finished first in yards allowed and second in scoring.

Cincinnati got four takeaways and four sacks, though against a quarterback who put the ball on the ground three times by himself. Dallas produced its worst performance by EPA per drive since 2017 and declined to blitz despite generating pressure on five of seven attempts. Buffalo blitzed 31 percent, got very little home, and left holes behind it. Houston gave up 7.9 yards a play, the most under DeMeco Ryans, and got no sacks from Danielle Hunter or Will Anderson Jr.

The cleanest read available is that none of these units has been tested the way it will be. Cincinnati goes to Houston. Dallas hosts a Washington front that just made Philadelphia uncomfortable. Buffalo hosts Detroit on a short week. The spending was the easy part.

Week 2 Games

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Three games this week have the market and the model on opposite sides, after only one in Week 1 — and one of them is not close. DraftKings has Denver favored by 2.5 at home against Jacksonville; ESPN’s predictor gives the Broncos a 36.9% chance of winning. Detroit at Buffalo carries the highest total of the week at 53.5. San Francisco is laying the most points at 13.5.

Thursday September 17th

Detroit at Buffalo – Buffalo’s first game in its new stadium, and Detroit walks in on four days’ rest after an overtime game. The Lions are the more banged-up team by a distance: Christian Mahogany was carted off with a knee injury on top of Cade Mays being out 8-10 weeks and Seth McLaughlin in concussion protocol, which leaves the interior line thin behind the thin, and both starting safeties remain ineligible until Week 5. Jahmyr Gibbs took 29 carries in Week 1 and now plays again in five days. On the other side, Buffalo’s offense looked like the version that wins games nobody expects them to — Kincaid’s route share jumped to 71%, DJ Moore cleared a hundred in his debut, and the 13-personnel wrinkle at 36.8% of snaps was not on anyone’s tape. The question is whether Jim Leonhard’s defense can hold up, and Jared Goff is a poor opponent to find out against. Goff doesn’t create pressure problems for himself and he punishes coverage busts, which Buffalo had several of in Houston. Buffalo is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 53.5, and given a 66.9% chance of winning. That total is the highest on the board and says the market expects neither defense to settle this.

Match-Up to Watch: Dalton Kincaid and the Buffalo tight end grouping against a Detroit defense missing Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. Kincaid put up 130 yards against the league’s No. 1 EPA defense. Detroit is starting its third and fourth safeties.

Our Pick: Buffalo.

Sunday September 20th

Carolina at Atlanta – The first division game of the year for both, and both arrive damaged in opposite ways. Carolina scored 37 and gave up 59, with Bryce Young throwing for 361 in the best opener of his career behind a line still missing both starting tackles into late October. Atlanta scored 13 with Cooper Rush and got 173 of its 238 yards from Bijan Robinson. Whether Michael Penix Jr. is available is the entire game. If he is, Atlanta’s passing offense goes from an active liability to something Carolina’s defense — which just allowed 291 rushing yards and could not get a quarterback on the ground — has to account for. If it’s Rush again, Atlanta needs a defensive performance like the one it just gave, holding Pittsburgh to 264 yards, and a cleaner day than nine penalties for 96 yards. Carolina is a 1.5 point road favorite with a total of 43.5, but Atlanta is given a 55.4% chance of winning. That is the tightest line on the board and one of three games this week where the number and the model disagree.

Key to the Game: Atlanta’s quarterback. Everything else in this matchup is legible; this isn’t.

Our Pick: Carolina, on the assumption Atlanta doesn’t get Penix back. If he plays, we’d flip it.

New Orleans at Baltimore – Baltimore is a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 46.5, and given a 76.2% chance of winning. Our pick here.

Match-Up to Watch: Nate Wiggins against Chris Olave.

Minnesota at Chicago – Chicago scored 59 and allowed 478 yards; Minnesota came back from 12 down in the fourth with its third quarterback. Kyler Murray’s status is the swing — O’Connell said he seemed fine after the game but gave no timetable, and O’Connell had named Carson Wentz the backup ahead of J.J. McCarthy only last week, so an absence means Wentz rather than the 2024 first-round pick. Brian Flores against Caleb Williams is the real interest. Williams completed 58.1 percent last season with the worst completion percentage over expectation among regular starters, and in Week 1 he posted the third-best CPOE of the weekend against a Carolina defense that generated the lowest pressure rate in football. Flores will not be that accommodating. Chicago’s defense is the counterweight: Kyler Gordon can’t play until Week 5, Coby Bryant isn’t expected until January, and Jaylon Johnson is working through an arm injury. Chicago scored 59 without a single catch from Colston Loveland, who we named a preseason breakout and who remains the piece Johnson built his Detroit offenses around. Chicago is a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 49.5, and given a 59.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Caleb Williams against Brian Flores’ pressure looks. Flores blitzes more than anyone, and the entire question about Williams is whether the accuracy holds when the pocket isn’t clean.

Our Pick: Chicago.

Cincinnati at Houston – The cleanest test of the week. Our published line on Cincinnati was that the defense doesn’t have to be good, it has to be average, and Week 1 produced four takeaways from a Tampa Bay team that handed them over. Houston does not give the ball away often, and just ran 73 plays and held it for 36 minutes against Buffalo. If the Bengals’ defensive investment is real rather than opportunistic, this is where it shows. Houston’s defense led the NFL in yards allowed last season and gave up 36 in the opener, surrendering 7.9 yards a play and 400-plus total yards for the first time under DeMeco Ryans since late 2024. Cincinnati’s own second half was the second-worst offensive half of the week by EPA, and the Bengals ran nine plays from under center without a single success. Houston is a 3 point favorite with a total of 46.5, and given a 55.5% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Mike Gesicki and Cincinnati’s tight ends against Houston’s safeties. Dalton Kincaid went for 130 on that group last week, and Gesicki drew seven targets in Week 1 with Ja’Marr Chase bracketed.

Our Pick: Houston.

Pittsburgh at New England – New England’s line let Drake Maye get pressured on 38.1% of dropbacks against Seattle, and now T.J. Watt arrives off a two-sack, pick-six afternoon with Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig and Cam Heyward alongside him. A.J. Brown is out several weeks with a high ankle sprain, leaving Maye with Doubs, Douglas, Hollins, Kyle Williams and Efton Chism after Kayshon Boutte was traded to Houston in camp. Maye just threw three interceptions forcing throws into coverage. Pittsburgh played exclusively zone against Atlanta per Next Gen Stats, which is the coverage that invites a quarterback to be patient, the exact thing Maye said he stopped being. Joey Porter Jr. missed Week 1 with a back issue and is a press-man specialist, so his return would change what Patrick Graham can call. Rodgers pushed the ball further downfield than he has as a Steeler and completed 60 percent doing it. New England is a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 41.5, and given a 65.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: T.J. Watt against New England’s tackles. Will Campbell graded well outside two penalties; Alijah Vera-Tucker had a rough debut and Jared Wilson hurt his hand.

Our Pick: Pittsburgh. Five and a half points is a lot to lay with a team that lost at home, lost its best receiver, and could not run the ball, against the best edge group in the league.

Green Bay at New York Jets – Green Bay’s line problem is now the headline. Jordan Love threw for 387 behind a front that gave up four sacks, two fumbles and fifteen quarterback hits with Aaron Banks inactive, and Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs are both still unavailable. He draws Aaron Glenn, who called the defense himself in Week 1 and got three sacks with a rebuilt front seven. The Jets won their opener the boring way — 39 minutes of possession, a 19-play drive, Geno Smith throwing 24 times without a turnover. Green Bay has now lost five straight dating to last season, four of them after leading in the second half by multiple scores, and Matt LaFleur signed an extension in between. Green Bay is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 44.5, and given a 61.7% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Green Bay’s interior line against the Jets’ rebuilt front. T’Vondre Sweat, Harrison Phillips and David Onyemata inside against Donovan Jennings making his second career start.

Our Pick: Green Bay.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay – Cleveland managed 272 yards, went 1 for 8 on third down and took 11 penalties in Jacksonville. Tampa Bay handed Cincinnati four turnovers and lost a game it otherwise played well, with Baker Mayfield completing 82 percent of his throws and fumbling three times. The Browns defense was supposed to be the floor under this season — first in passing EPA last year — and instead played passive zone, blitzed three times and never pressured Trevor Lawrence. Jared Verse did not record a hurry. Deshaun Watson threw an interception five plays into the year, and Todd Monken declined afterward to put a quarterback change on the table. Tampa Bay is an 8.5 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 77.6% chance of winning. That is the second-largest number of the week and the joint-lowest total.

Match-Up to Watch: Cleveland’s front against Baker Mayfield’s ball security. Tampa put it on the ground four times in a game it led in most other categories.

Our Pick: Tampa Bay.

Philadelphia at Tennessee – Philadelphia won by two at home while its offensive line gave up three sacks, committed four penalties and produced a 59-yard third quarter. Tennessee was outgained 367-195 at home by the Jets. Cam Ward threw for 140 and was chased all afternoon. Jalen Hurts threw three touchdowns down the middle of the field in Sean Mannion’s debut, the throw Philadelphia had stopped making under Kevin Patullo. The Eagles’ defense is the reason to expect a comfortable afternoon: Fangio, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the secondary, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis up front. DeJean had the worst game of his career in Week 1 and gets a much softer test. Philadelphia is a 7 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 70.1% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis against Tennessee’s interior. Ward has now been pressured into two of the worst full-game passing lines of his young career against defensive fronts a tier below this one.

Our Pick: Philadelphia.

Jacksonville at Denver – Jacksonville’s best offensive performance of 2025 was Week 16 in Denver, when it scored 34 and beat the AFC’s top seed on the road — the only team to beat the Broncos by double digits all year. They open this season having scored on six of their first seven drives against a Cleveland defense that played passive zone and never pressured Trevor Lawrence, which is the opposite of what Denver usually does. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks last year, eleven clear of the field, though Jonathon Cooper remains on the Commissioner’s Exempt List. Lawrence was sacked once by Cleveland and that offensive line, a projected weakness, held up all afternoon. What Denver did Monday complicates the whole picture: 176 yards of offense in Davis Webb’s play-calling debut, and a defense that gave up 220 rushing yards and missed 28 tackles, the most in a game by any defense since at least 2018. Jacksonville’s three-man backfield of Bhayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Ameer Abdullah ran for 121 on 25 carries with a 52% success rate. Denver is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 44.5, but ESPN gives the Broncos only a 36.9% chance of winning — the widest gap between a line and the model we have seen this season.

Match-Up to Watch: Jacksonville’s run game against Alex Singleton, DJ Jones and the middle of the Denver defense. The Broncos have now been run on by Buffalo, New England and Kansas City in consecutive meaningful games.

Our Pick: Jacksonville.

Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers – Las Vegas beat Miami without Brock Bowers, who is out following a knee procedure, and now starts the hard part of its schedule. The Chargers lost at home as a nine-and-a-half-point favorite and come out of it with Ladd McConkey nursing a hip and Elijah Molden a hamstring, which matters more than usual given what the offense looked like once McConkey left the field. Arizona sacked Herbert three times, held the ball for 19 of the first 30 minutes, and averaged 4.5 yards a carry in the first half against an interior of Dalvin Tomlinson, Jamaree Caldwell and Teair Tart. Omarion Hampton averaged under half a yard before contact. Maxx Crosby is a worse problem than Walter Nolen and Josh Sweat, and Kwity Paye — signed in free agency specifically to be the second rusher Las Vegas has never had — opened with two sacks, five pressures and five quarterback hits. On the other side, Cousins threw for 160 yards on 30 attempts and Las Vegas’ offense ran through Jeanty and a long opening drive. The Chargers are a 7 point favorite with a total of 43.5, and given a 68.7% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Maxx Crosby against the Chargers’ interior. Crosby has 70 career sacks and Los Angeles is elite at tackle and unproven inside.

Our Pick: Los Angeles.

Seattle at Arizona – The defending champions travel to face the team that just won at SoFi. Seattle’s offense produced a field goal through three quarters with Drew Lock in for an injured Darnold and a skill group missing Zach Charbonnet, Tory Horton and Robbie Ouzts, and the defense won the game with three fourth-quarter interceptions. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, had 122 yards on eight catches with a backup throwing to him. Darnold’s hip is the story: Macdonald said tests ruled out a break, but if Lock starts, Seattle’s ranking is being carried entirely by Mike Macdonald. Arizona controlled the ball for 37 minutes against the Chargers and Jacoby Brissett threw for 277 without a turnover. Trey McBride and a healthy Jeremiyah Love give Mike LaFleur two pieces to build around, and Arizona’s front got home three times. Seattle is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 41.5, but Arizona is given a 52.9% chance of winning — the third game this week where the number and the model disagree.

Match-Up to Watch: Trey McBride against Seattle’s linebackers and safeties. Nick Emmanwori was inactive in Week 1 with an ankle, and McBride is the one Arizona skill player who grades a 9.

Our Pick: Seattle.

Washington at Dallas – Washington’s second straight division game after losing by two in Philadelphia, and Dallas’ first home game after losing at the Giants. Both defenses are the story. Dallas rebuilt its entire defensive side and then turned in its worst performance by EPA per drive since 2017, with Christian Parker largely declining to blitz despite generating pressure on five of seven blitzes through three quarters. Washington got three sacks and five quarterback hits without Jer’Zhan Newton, with Sonny Styles and Odafe Oweh both showing up, and held Hurts to 203 yards. Jayden Daniels was 18 of 34 for 164 behind a line missing Laremy Tunsil, and Terry McLaurin finished without a catch. Dak Prescott went 22 of 26 when kept clean in Week 1 and 0 for 8 under pressure. Dallas also lost Malik Hooker to a fractured forearm, which may force them to move Caleb Downs — the 11th overall pick, who played 61 of 69 snaps between safety and the slot and produced seven tackles, a sack and a forced fumble — out of the slot role he was drafted to play. Dallas is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 50.5, and given a 63% chance of winning. That total is the second-highest of the week.

Match-Up to Watch: Washington’s pass rush against a Dallas line that kept Prescott clean most of the night. The Giants pressured him nine times without a sack and it decided the game.

Our Pick: Washington. The model has Dallas at 63% off a defensive performance that was the worst this franchise has produced in nine years, and Washington’s front just made Philadelphia uncomfortable for four quarters.

Miami at San Francisco – San Francisco beat the preseason favorite by 20 and now gets the roster Clay graded 32nd on both sides of the ball. Malik Willis was sacked five times and threw for 220. Miami’s defense allowed a 16-play, 93-yard opening drive. The 49ers had four blown blocks as a unit, led the league in rushing success rate at 56.7%, and got Bosa and Warner back at full speed. The question is whether Kyle Shanahan has to spend anything here, and whether Brock Purdy stays upright, since the entire San Francisco projection rests on him playing seventeen games rather than nine. San Francisco is a 13.5 point favorite with a total of 45.5, and given a 90.8% chance of winning — the largest number of the week by a distance.

Key to the Game: Whether San Francisco can win this cheaply. They played Friday in Australia and now play a home game on a short turnaround against the league’s weakest roster.

Our Pick: San Francisco.

Indianapolis at Kansas City – Indianapolis was outgained by 255 yards at home, graded 30th in Week 1 DVOA, and now goes to Arrowhead before hosting Houston. Daniel Jones, nine months off an Achilles, went 19 of 31 for 166 with an interception and ran once for four yards, and Schatz’s preseason model had already built in a first-month penalty for exactly that. Jonathan Taylor ran for 98 and two scores against Baltimore and remains the reason to watch. Kansas City’s defense graded second in the league in Week 1, holding Denver to 176 yards and limiting Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton to three catches for thirteen between them — and it did that after losing rookie corner Mansoor Delane, the sixth overall pick, to a shoulder injury on the third play of the game. The Chiefs’ vulnerability is at left tackle, where Josh Simmons is out and undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson is now on tape for the first time. Kansas City is a 6.5 point favorite with a total of 47.5, and given a 75.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Indianapolis’ edge rush against Kahlil Benson. Denver got very little out of that matchup and there’s now a full game of film on him.

Our Pick: Kansas City.

Monday September 21st

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams – The Rams host their home opener at 0-1 without Myles Garrett, who had arthroscopic knee surgery and will miss at least four games. Aaron Donald unretired into a defense that was supposed to pair him with Garrett, and how much he can give at 35 having not played since 2023 is now a live question rather than a luxury. Stafford was held to 155 yards and stopped on a fourth-down sneak from the 1. The Giants just controlled a division game for sixty minutes with Jaxson Dart throwing nothing deep, Isaiah Likely catching all eight of his targets, and Patrick Ricard on the field for most of the run game. New York’s corners remain the problem — Dru Phillips drew three interference penalties and Paulson Adebo was beaten twice on three targets — and Puka Nacua is a harder assignment than the one that just exposed them. The Rams are a 7 point favorite with a total of 48.5, and given a 66.3% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Puka Nacua against the Giants’ secondary. Nacua was limited to one long reception by San Francisco, and New York does not currently have a corner it can leave alone.

Our Pick: Los Angeles.

The post 2026 NFL: Previewing Week 2 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The season will culminate with Super Bowl 61, February 14th, 2027 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood — meaning the preseason favorite is chasing a Lombardi in its own building.

We preview each of the 16 games on the opening slate, as all 32 teams will be in-action.

Our full season preview and initial Power Rankings can be found here.

Week 1 Games

All lines from FanDuel. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Wednesday September 9th

New England at Seattle – A Super Bowl LX rematch to open the year, which the league does not get to script very often. Seattle won 14 games, lost three others by a combined nine points, and DVOA rated them the third-best champion it has ever measured. So why do we have them second and not first? Klint Kubiak left for Las Vegas, Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City, and Brian Fleury has never called plays at any level of pro football. Zach Charbonnet was moved to the reserve/PUP list Sunday and will miss at least the first four games, Nick Emmanwori opened camp on PUP and is questionable, and the entire backfield has been banged up all summer. Seattle also signed Terrion Arnold after Detroit released him, though he isn’t expected to be available Wednesday. That’s a lot to put on Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Game 1. The defense should still travel — Macdonald was the unanimous No. 1 defensive play-caller in CBS’s poll, the only coach in either poll to be listed first on every ballot — though losing Boye Mafe to Cincinnati costs them something off the edge. New England is the more interesting evaluation to me. Drake Maye led the entire NFL in both EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expectation last year, and it wasn’t close on the second one. Then the postseason came and the offense got overwhelmed by a run of elite defenses. Was that the quarterback or the supporting cast? A.J. Brown was brought in to answer that, and the secondary — Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Craig Woodson, Kevin Byard — is still the best unit on the roster. New England also lost a long list of defensive contributors, and I’m not sure they’re deep enough up-front to hold up over 17 games. Seattle is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 44.5, and given a 62.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: A.J. Brown against Devon Witherspoon. New England traded for Brown to give Maye a receiver who wins without scheme help. Witherspoon grades a 9 and just signed for $132 million. Somebody’s offseason thesis takes a hit on Wednesday night.

Thursday September 10th

San Francisco vs LA Rams (East Melbourne, Australia) – The preseason favorite opens 10,000 miles from home. The Rams are the closest thing to a superteam the league has had in a while: Clay grades them with both the No. 1 offense and the No. 1 defense, the only team in his guide to lead both, and Les Snead got there by trading Jared Verse and three picks for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Matthew Stafford is the reigning MVP at 38. And on Sunday they added Aaron Donald, who unretired on a one-year, $20 million deal with incentives that can push it to $30 million. He hasn’t played since 2023, he’s 35, and he spent his first day back in a team meeting and individual drills while the staff ramps him up — so whether he’s on the field in Melbourne is a separate question from whether he’s on the roster. But pairing him with Garrett is the kind of thing that gets a team declared a champion in August, which is exactly when it means the least. The problem this week is who actually plays. Puka Nacua practiced Sunday and is questionable with a groin injury, which is better news than it looked a week ago, though the off-field questions are still attached. Alaric Jackson is questionable while managing his blood clot issue. Myles Garrett sat out Sunday’s practice with the knee and is also questionable. You can subtract enough pieces from a superteam that it stops looking like one, and an international opener is a strange place to find out. San Francisco won 12 games last year and a road playoff game in Philadelphia. In most divisions they’d be expected to host in January; in this one they’re penciled in third. The offense has real talent and real mileage — Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk, with Trent Williams at 38 — and Christian Kirk went on injured reserve Sunday with a calf injury. Kittle is expected to practice this week as he pushes to play in Australia, which tells you how much this offense needs him, coming off an Achilles tear. Christian McCaffrey was excellent as a receiver out of the backfield but averaged 3.9 yards per carry as a runner, well below his norms. If Brock Purdy plays 17 games this is a contender. If he plays nine again, it isn’t. Watch 2026 second-rounder De’Zhaun Stribling, who has pushed for a role with a lot of targets vacated, though a shoulder injury kept him out of the preseason finale. The Rams are 3.5 point favorites with a total of 48.5, and given a 57.6% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Myles Garrett against Trent Williams. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year, coming off a record 23 sacks and managing knee swelling all camp, against a 38-year-old left tackle with six straight 85-plus grades. Both of them are being asked to be what they were, and neither has anything left to prove except availability.

Sunday September 13th

Buffalo at Houston – Probably the best game on the early slate, and two teams we have in the AFC field. Joe Brady’s first game as a head coach comes against a defense that finished first in total defense and second in scoring last season after DeMeco Ryans handed play-calling to Matt Burke. Buffalo’s offense should be fine — Clay grades it second in the league, DJ Moore arrives from Chicago to join Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman — both of whom are questionable, Coleman with a foot and toe issue — and James Cook is the reigning rushing champion. The question is the other side of the ball, and it’s the whole reason Sean McDermott isn’t there anymore. Buffalo finished first in the NFL in rushing offense by EPA and 31st in rushing defense, the widest split of any contender, and then turned it over four times in a divisional-round loss in Denver. Now Jim Leonhard installs a new scheme. Nineteen different defensive play-callers drew a vote in CBS’s poll — the widest spread of any category they surveyed — and Leonhard finished with exactly one point, from a single tenth-place ballot. Clay also grades the Buffalo linebacker corps a 3, the lowest mark of any contender at any position. Houston’s side is C.J. Stroud, who ranked seventh in EPA per dropback from October on behind a bad line and no run game, and then had a rough January. The entire offseason went into helping him: Braden Smith, Wyatt Teller, David Montgomery from Detroit. Smith was carted off the practice field in late August and is questionable, which is not what you want from the tackle you signed to fix the problem, and the receiver room already lost Jayden Higgins and Tank Dell. Montgomery giving this offense a real play-action game is the likeliest bridge between average Stroud and top-third Stroud. Buffalo is our AFC favorite. This is a genuine test of that. Buffalo is a 1.5 point road favorite with a total of 44.5, and given a 54.2% chance of winning — tied with Minnesota for the tightest number on the board, which feels about right.

Key to the Game: Early downs against David Montgomery. Buffalo finished 31st in rushing defense by EPA and is installing a new scheme under a coordinator who drew one point in CBS’s poll. Houston imported Montgomery specifically to make its play-action game work. If the Bills can’t get Houston into obvious passing downs, Rousseau and Chubb never get to rush.

Baltimore at Indianapolis – We will have a larger write-up on this game later. Baltimore is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 48.5, and given a 61.4% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Lamar Jackson under center against Lou Anarumo’s pressure packages.

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati – Cincinnati finally spent on defense, and the first assignment is a good one. The Bengals sent the No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence and added Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger, and now Lawrence lines up against Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, who allowed almost nothing between them last season. Here’s the thing about Cincinnati that keeps getting overstated: this defense doesn’t have to be good. It has to be average, which it hasn’t been since 2022. With Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Clay’s No. 3 offense and the second-easiest schedule in the league, average defense probably gets them into the playoffs. Chase missed practice in late August with a knee issue and is questionable, which is the one thing that would change all of that. Burrow is also one of only four quarterbacks voted into Sando’s Tier 1, and everybody spent August discussing Lamar Jackson’s missed games while ignoring that Burrow has missed a comparable number over the same stretch. Tampa Bay arrives with terrible vibes and real talent. Baker Mayfield called the club’s reported two-year, $100-million-plus offer disrespectful and will play out his deal, Vita Vea has requested a trade and is holding in, Mike Evans left for San Francisco and Lavonte David retired. A healthy Mayfield with a chip on his shoulder is not the worst thing that can happen to an offense. Emeka Egbuka drew 127 targets as a rookie and is questionable with a toe injury that Todd Bowles expects him to play through. Zac Robinson is the new coordinator. Watch Bucky Irving, who averaged 5.4 yards a carry over 207 attempts as a rookie and 3.4 over 173 last year in an injury-shortened season. One of those is real. Cincinnati is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 51.5, and given a 60.1% chance of winning. That total is the highest of the week, which tells you what the market thinks of both defenses.

Match-Up to Watch: Dexter Lawrence against Tampa Bay’s interior. Cincinnati gave up the No. 10 overall pick for exactly this — a player who can wreck a game from the inside — and Tampa’s line was the reason we put them fourth in our offensive line rankings. The Bengals’ entire season rests on the defense being average. This is the first data point.

Cleveland at Jacksonville – Todd Monken finally landed a top job, a hire that drove respected DC Jim Schwartz out of the building, and he has settled a four-way quarterback competition by naming Deshaun Watson the Week 1 starter, over Shedeur Sanders and rookie Taylen Green — Dillon Gabriel went on injured reserve with a back injury Monken says isn’t serious. None of the four had a good August, and Watson ranked 31st of 35 in Sando’s tiers with some of the harshest commentary in the entire survey. Which makes the real question whether this is a competition or an audition for the 2027 draft — and if Sanders is starting by the second half of the season and looking like he can hold the job in 2027, that’s a productive year for Cleveland regardless of the record. Here’s the odd part: the Browns defense is legitimately good. Cleveland finished first in the NFL in passing defense by EPA per dropback last season, the 2025 draft delivered Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger plus Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr., and Jared Verse arrived in the Garrett trade as a cost-controlled young edge who actually fits the timeline. The offense finished 32nd in that same metric — dead last, and not close. Jacksonville is the popular sleeper of the summer on the strength of not losing from Week 11 through Week 18. I’m out on it. There’s a turnover-luck component to that closing kick nobody should ignore, they lost Travis Etienne and All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd, and there was no cap space and no draft capital to replace either after the Travis Hunter trade. Their only premium pick went to a rotational blocking tight end. It comes down to how you evaluate Trevor Lawrence, who ranked fourth in the NFL in total EPA and success rate from November on and drew MVP votes, but still finished 27th in completion percentage over expectation on the full year. Hunter as a full-time corner on a defense that ranked first in EPA per play down the stretch is the fun part. Quinn Ewers came over from Miami to back up. Jacksonville is a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 67% chance of winning. That’s a lot of respect for a team we have going 9-8, and not much for a Cleveland defense that finished first in the league against the pass — though a 40.5 total says the market does believe in that defense, just not in anything the Browns do with the ball.

Match-Up to Watch: Joshua Hines-Allen against Cleveland’s tackles. Hines-Allen grades a 9 on a defense that ranked first in EPA per play from Week 11 on. Watson has not held up under pressure in years, and Monken’s protection plan is the most interesting thing about a game that could otherwise be unwatchable.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – Aaron Rodgers turns 43 in December and has announced this is the last one. Mike McCarthy inherits a franchise that never had a losing season in 20 years under Mike Tomlin, and he inherits a quarterback whose arm is fine and whose legs are gone. In 2025 Rodgers posted both the lowest average time to throw and the lowest average depth of target in the NFL, finished 23rd in EPA per dropback and 33rd in success rate, and has basically stopped working the middle of the field. Expect defenses to crowd the line and dare him to get it out immediately, over and over, and expect Pittsburgh to lose more of these than the front office wants to admit if he can’t. The supporting cast is better than people realize — Michael Pittman Jr. and Rico Dowdle join DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth, with first-round tackle Max Iheanachor added. Pittman (hamstring) and Metcalf are both expected to play, and Jalen Ramsey has been activated off PUP. And Clay grades this the No. 3 defense in football, with the best edge group in the league in T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig and a 37-year-old Cameron Heyward who still grades a 9. Which is a rough draw for Atlanta, who as of this writing still haven’t named a starter. Michael Penix Jr. sat out the preseason finale but has said he believes he’ll be available here, so the assumption that this was Tua Tagovailoa’s job by default no longer holds — and given both of their injury histories, Kevin Stefanski may end up using both before October. Atlanta also traded for Gervon Dexter Sr. on Sunday to shore up the interior, though he arrives with a hamstring issue. Right tackle is a limiting issue on a roster where both quarterbacks are left-handed and Jawaan Taylor is protecting the blind side. Kevin Stefanski’s job here is to keep whoever plays upright and turnover-free. Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts can handle a fair amount of the rest. People forget Pittsburgh won this division at 10-7. They are not an afterthought. Pittsburgh is a 3 point favorite with a total of 42.5, and given a 58.1% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: T.J. Watt against Jawaan Taylor. Both Atlanta quarterbacks are left-handed, which makes right tackle the blind side, and right tackle was already the weak point on this roster. Watt has spent a decade making that a problem for people. If Tagovailoa gets hit early, this is over quickly.

New Orleans at Detroit – Detroit has the easiest schedule in football by both models, which is why Clay projects 12 wins and the NFL’s second-best record, and this is a soft start to it. The catch is that the Lions are the banged-up team. Cade Mays, signed specifically to fix the interior line, is out 8-10 weeks with a wrist injury. Terrion Arnold was released after criminal charges and has signed in Seattle. Both starting safeties are now on the reserve/PUP list — Kerby Joseph with a knee, Brian Branch with an Achilles — meaning neither is eligible until Week 5, and Sharp had already dropped Detroit three spots on the secondary before that. Backup center Seth McLaughlin is in concussion protocol, so the interior is thin behind the thin. Taylor Decker requested his release, which moves Penei Sewell to left tackle. There’s plenty here still — Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson and Jack Campbell all grade 9, Sam LaPorta an 8, and Jared Goff keeps posting numbers. He’s another quarterback who isn’t elite and is unquestionably good enough to win with. Jahmyr Gibbs no longer has David Montgomery to share the load, and whether Isiah Pacheco has anything left is a real question — he’s questionable with a back injury on top of the knee. New Orleans was the under-the-radar team that nearly became our NFC South pick. The Saints went 5-4 in games Tyler Shough started and 1-7 otherwise, added Travis Etienne and guard David Edwards, drafted Jordyn Tyson eighth overall and paid Chris Olave up to $132 million. Tyson is on injured reserve with a hamstring and out roughly two months. The backfield is worse off than that: Alvin Kamara sprained an MCL and is out at least a month, and Devin Neal and Ty Chandler are both on IR, so Etienne is carrying it alone. Kellen Moore is in Year 2 with a defined starter and Brandon Staley runs the defense. The problem: Shough had the league’s worst pressure-to-sack ratio and a bottom-ten off-target rate, and the Saints have no depth in the trenches with Bryan Bresee lost for the year. Hutchinson against that line is the matchup. Detroit is a 7 point favorite with a total of 49.5, and given a 73.5% chance of winning — the largest number of the early window.

Match-Up to Watch: Aidan Hutchinson against a Saints line with no depth. Tyler Shough had the worst pressure-to-sack ratio in the NFL last season, and Bryan Bresee is already lost for the year. Hutchinson grades a 9 and was playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level before his 2024 injury. This is the mismatch of the early window.

Chicago at Carolina – Two 2025 division winners, and two teams we’re projecting to come back to the pack. Chicago forced a league-leading 33 turnovers, which papered over a defense that was ordinary down to down, and then the offseason went sideways: Drew Dalman surprise-retired, DJ Moore was traded to Buffalo, Luther Burden III missed the preseason with a groin injury but was running routes last week, and the secondary took two real hits: Kyler Gordon went to the reserve/PUP list Sunday and can’t play until Week 5, while Coby Bryant isn’t expected back until January. Jaylon Johnson is questionable with an arm injury on top of that. Sharp ranks the schedule third-hardest. I still believe in Ben Johnson — he fixed the sack problem in one offseason and Chicago graded fifth in both PFF pass blocking and run blocking — but Caleb Williams completed 58.1 percent of his throws last season, nowhere near Johnson’s stated 70 percent goal, and ranked 34th in completion percentage over expectation while setting the franchise passing record and winning Chicago’s first playoff game since 2011. The gap between the highlight throws and the routine ones is the entire Year 3 question. Watch Colston Loveland; Johnson built his Detroit offenses around tight end usage and this is the first year he has the personnel. Carolina won the division on a three-way 8-9 tiebreaker, then had the best offseason in the South — Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd, Rasheed Walker, first-round tackle Monroe Freeling — and has been bitten harder by injuries than any team in football. Nic Scourton and rookie receiver Chris Brazzell are out for the year. Both starting tackles are out too — Taylor Moton with a blood clot and Ikem Ekwonu with a knee — and neither is expected back before late October. We took the over on Clay’s 5.9-win projection anyway, mostly on Derrick Brown, Lloyd and Tetairoa McMillan — though Brown, Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips are all carrying questionable tags into the opener, which is a lot of the reason we liked them. Chicago is a 2.5 point road favorite with a total of 47.5, and given a 61.7% chance of winning. Two division champions, and the market has the road team laying points.

Match-Up to Watch: Derrick Brown against Chicago’s replacement for Drew Dalman. Dalman’s retirement in August dropped the Bears from a top-three line to eighth in our rankings, and Brown grades a 9 as the one Carolina defender who can win a game by himself. Ben Johnson’s line schemes are the tell on this offense. First test is a hard one.

New York Jets at Tennessee – Two teams nobody will watch, and both are more interesting than the records will be. New York did not record a single interception in 2025. Not one. They also finished 32nd in passing defense by EPA per dropback, and responded by rebuilding most of the defensive starting lineup and having Aaron Glenn take over play-calling himself. Clay now grades the Jets’ linebackers eighth-best in the league and the defense 10th, with Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety and T’Vondre Sweat, Harrison Phillips and David Onyemata inside, plus a draft class of David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr. and D’Angelo Ponds. The offense is the problem: Geno Smith is back where his career started, coming off a league-high 17 interceptions and a 34th-place finish in EPA per dropback, and Clay projects 14 more picks. Tennessee gives Cam Ward the most credible staff the franchise has put together in a decade — Robert Saleh, Gus Bradley on defense, Brian Daboll on offense — plus Carnell Tate at No. 4 overall to go with Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley. Ward finished 33rd of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, success rate and yards per dropback as a rookie, and improved in all three over the back half of the year while nearly halving his sack rate after Brian Callahan was fired. Jeffery Simmons grades a 9 and projects for a league-leading 9.3 sacks among interior linemen. Cedric Gray, fifth in the NFL with 160 tackles as a first-time starter, is the centerpiece of the new zone scheme. Six wins isn’t a playoff team. It’s a real step. Tennessee is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 39.5, and given a 61.8% chance of winning. That’s the lowest total on the board, and nobody should be surprised.

Match-Up to Watch: Jeffery Simmons against the Jets’ interior. Simmons projects for a league-leading 9.3 sacks among interior linemen, and Geno Smith threw 17 picks last season while being asked to hold the ball. Interior pressure is how you turn that into turnovers, which is the one thing this Jets defense could not generate at all in 2025.

Washington at Philadelphia – A division game in Week 1 with real stakes for both. Philadelphia won 11 games and a division title and spent the entire offseason unhappy about it. A.J. Brown is gone, Kevin Patullo was fired, and Sean Mannion — who nobody can evaluate yet — installs the Shanahan-McVay system. Fangio is still there, and the defense is the reason to believe: Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the secondary, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis up front, Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun both grading 9. The safety group grades a 3 and Jonathan Greenard’s pectoral injury has him listed out for this one, so it isn’t airtight. Cooper DeJean is questionable as well. On Jalen Hurts, the criticism has gotten excessive. He’s been to two Super Bowls, won one, was its MVP, and has three Pro Bowls. Ruiz’s film read is that the 2025 efficiency decline traced to a bad scheme rather than to any decline in Hurts, and Patullo lost his job over it. Washington went from the NFC Championship Game to 5-12 and dead last in the NFL in yards allowed, and now Laremy Tunsil is out with a torn triceps. Jer’Zhan Newton tore a pectoral and isn’t expected back until November, which thins an already bad front. Dan Quinn replaced both coordinators — David Blough on offense, Daronte Jones on defense — and there’s a heavy Maryland flavor to the additions, with former Terps Stefon Diggs and Chigoziem Okonkwo both likely to help immediately and Nick Cross joining the secondary. Former Raven Odafe Oweh gets a chance to build on what he did in Los Angeles. Jayden Daniels grades a 7 and is an MVP-caliber player when upright. Behind a line missing Tunsil, against Fangio, on the road, is not the opener you’d draw up for him. Philadelphia is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 45.5, and given a 65.5% chance of winning.

Key to the Game: Whether Washington can protect Jayden Daniels without Laremy Tunsil. Daniels is an MVP-caliber player when upright, and he is walking into Fangio’s defense with Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis inside and his left tackle on injured reserve. Everything else about Washington’s season is downstream of him staying on the field.

Green Bay at Minnesota – Green Bay was 9-3-1 on December 7 and top-five in several defensive categories. Then Micah Parsons tore his ACL, they lost four straight, and they blew a 21-3 lead to Chicago in the wild card. Parsons was moved to the reserve/PUP list Sunday and will miss the first four games, so this is the version without him. Josh Jacobs was placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List the same day and is also out, which leaves MarShawn Lloyd — the former DeMatha standout who had six carries in 2024 and missed 2025 entirely — carrying the backfield. Sharp has the Packers fourth on the strength of Jordan Love ranking sixth in EPA per dropback over three seasons. We can’t get there with this much rehab on the roster. Love has enormous ability and it falls to him to elevate a receiver group in Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden that all has talent and all has questions; a healthy Tucker Kraft is a top-tier tight end and probably the swing piece, and he’s expected to be full go here. Minnesota is the strangest situation in football. Kyler Murray won the job outright and J.J. McCarthy’s camp was described by one veteran beat writer as the football yips, which is why Clay grades the quarterback room a 4. Murray has started multiple seasons hot enough to draw MVP chatter by Week 6 and has never sustained it, with the usual explanation being that he wears down over a full year. The skill talent around him here is better than anything he’s had, starting with Justin Jefferson. And Brian Flores is the best coordinator alive at extracting production from a unit without stars — his defense finished third in the NFL in passing EPA allowed while the offense finished 29th. Jonathan Greenard’s departure for Philadelphia will be felt. Minnesota is a 1.5 point home favorite with a total of 45.5, but Green Bay is given a 57.4% chance of winning. The market and the model disagree here, which is usually a sign the number is being set on Kyler Murray rather than on the rosters.

Match-Up to Watch: Kyler Murray against a Green Bay secondary that has to cover without Micah Parsons. Jonathan Gannon’s corners were the acknowledged weak spot last season and were being propped up by pressure. Parsons isn’t back until Week 6. Murray is at his best early in seasons and against defenses that let him extend plays.

Arizona at LA Chargers – Mike McDaniel’s first game calling plays since leaving Miami, and the reason we have the Chargers eighth while NFL.com has them 17th. Los Angeles won 11 games without Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater for most of the season. Both are back, though Slater has been limited and carries a questionable tag. Justin Herbert took 54 sacks behind the league’s highest pressure rate last year, playing through a broken hand that needed midseason surgery, in front of a line that shuffled through nearly three dozen starting combinations — and still set a career high in scramble rate and averaged nine yards per dropback outside of structure. He checked in sixth in Sando’s tiers. The skill group is the deepest of his career: Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, Oronde Gadsden II, David Njoku, Charlie Kolar, with Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell behind Hampton. The interior line was already the worry and it got worse when Tyler Biadasz tore his ACL and was lost for the year, then worse again when guard Branson Taylor went to injured reserve on Sunday. Losing Jesse Minter to Baltimore should matter, and as Ravens fans we’d like to think it will, but Harbaugh always finds a path and always builds physical teams. Arizona draws the hardest schedule in the league by both models with a quarterback room Clay grades a 3 — Jacoby Brissett starting, Gardner Minshew behind him, third-rounder Carson Beck lurking. There are weapons: Trey McBride grades a 9, No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love an 8 though he’s questionable with an ankle and is now the entire backfield after James Conner and Trey Benson both landed on injured reserve, plus Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Paris Johnson Jr. and Isaac Seumalo. Mike LaFleur’s first job is getting Harrison back on track after two years of offensive dysfunction. No excuse for the Chargers to lose this one at home. The Chargers are 10.5 point favorites with a total of 46.5, and given an 81.1% chance of winning — the biggest number of the week by a wide margin.

Match-Up to Watch: The Chargers’ interior line against Walter Nolen and Josh Sweat. Los Angeles is elite at tackle with Alt and Slater back and completely unproven inside, and it got worse when Tyler Biadasz tore his ACL. Arizona’s front is the one part of that roster with real juice. A 10.5-point favorite has one plausible way to lose this.

Miami at Las Vegas – The two lowest-graded rosters in Clay’s guide, and it isn’t especially close. Miami projects for 2.4 wins with the 32nd-ranked offense, the 32nd-ranked defense and roughly $180 million in dead cap after cutting Tyreek Hill and moving Tua Tagovailoa, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jaylen Waddle and Bradley Chubb. Malik Willis gets his first Week 1 start with no receiver on the roster grading above a 3. Worth remembering: this was a 7-10 team a year ago. The collapse is one offseason old, not chronic, and De’Von Achane, Zach Sieler and Jordyn Brooks are real players. Las Vegas is the more interesting situation. Klint Kubiak asked for a veteran quarterback so he wouldn’t have to throw the No. 1 overall pick into the fire, and got Kirk Cousins. Mendoza looked sharp in August, which means the question isn’t whether he plays this year but when. Tyler Linderbaum arrives from Baltimore to fix the center spot, Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker rebuild the linebacker room, and Maxx Crosby (projected for 10.9 sacks) and Brock Bowers both grade a 9, with Ashton Jeanty in Year 2 and an ankle the staff says it’s counting on him to play through. Same core problem as Miami, though: no receiver above a 5. Las Vegas is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 59% chance of winning. That is a surprisingly small number against a team projected for 2.4 wins, and it says as much about the Raiders as it does about Miami.

Match-Up to Watch: Maxx Crosby against Miami’s tackles. Crosby grades a 9 and projects for 10.9 sacks, and Malik Willis is making his first Week 1 start with no receiver on the roster grading above a 3. If Miami can’t run with Achane, this becomes a very long afternoon in the desert.

Dallas at New York Giants – John Harbaugh’s first game in something other than purple, and the schedule handed him a division game in prime time. New York’s front seven is the reason to watch: Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux is Clay’s second-best edge room, with rookie Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds behind them under new coordinator Dennard Wilson. Carter had 72 pressures as a rookie, including a league-best 48 in under 2.5 seconds, and only four sacks. The finishing is coming. The problem is that Paulson Adebo, Dru Phillips and Greg Newsome II are all questionable and Malik Nabers is questionable with a knee, which is a bad combination against this offense. Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard followed Harbaugh from Baltimore and should both be productive, and Odell Beckham Jr. is back in a Giants uniform. Jaxson Dart debuted atop Sando’s Tier 3, has obvious talent, and has a playing style that doesn’t inspire much confidence about his availability. Dallas had the league’s second-best offense last season — two 1,000-yard receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the NFL’s third-rated passer in Dak Prescott, a quietly productive year from Javonte Williams — and finished 7-9-1 because they couldn’t stop anybody, ranking 31st in passing defense and 30th in rushing defense by EPA. So they threw everything at that side of the ball: Rashan Gary, Von Miller, Dee Winters, Otito Ogbonnia, Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant, first-round picks on Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence, Christian Parker hired from Philadelphia, and Broderick Jones from Pittsburgh up front. If that defense can be merely average, Dallas is a playoff team. They’re our first team out of the NFC field at 9-8. Dallas is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 48.5, and given a 55.1% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens against a Giants corner room carrying three questionable starters. Dallas had the league’s second-best offense last season and Prescott was the NFL’s third-rated passer. John Harbaugh’s debut is going to be decided by whether that front seven can get home before the coverage breaks.

Monday September 14th

Denver at Kansas City – Best possible way to end the weekend. Kansas City enters ninth in FPI, its worst preseason ranking since 2018, coming off a six-win season in which it went 1-9 in one-score games and lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in December. He was cleared to practice fully when camp opened. The real question isn’t whether he plays, it’s what he looks like scrambling on a repaired knee and whether he starts getting the ball out quicker. Kenneth Walker III gives Andy Reid and a returning Eric Bieniemy the downhill run game and play-action threat they haven’t had in three years, though he’s questionable with ankle swelling the club expects him to play through. Mahomes, for his part, is reported to be on track to start. Two first-round picks and a second went into the defense, and Spagnuolo’s units almost always look better in December than September; the rebuilt secondary leaning on rookie Mansoor Delane is the actual worry. Denver returns 20 of 22 starters from an AFC Championship Game roster, sent first-, third- and fourth-round picks to Miami for Jaylen Waddle, has the best offensive line in football, and led the NFL with 68 sacks, eleven clear of the field and four short of the 1984 Bears’ record. That last number needs an asterisk this week: Jonathon Cooper was placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List on Sunday, so one of the pieces that produced it isn’t available. We have them regressing from 14 wins to 10, but let’s be precise about why: that’s an 11-2 record in one-score games and a record 12 comeback wins evening out, not a verdict on the roster. Bo Nix finished fourth in the NFL in red-zone QBR and led the league outright in winning drives with seven. He also finished 26th in completion percentage over expectation and attempted only 40 passes between the hashmarks all season against 234 outside the numbers. Davis Webb spent the offseason working on getting him off his first read faster; opposing coordinators spent it making him look at the middle of the field. Five of Denver’s first six opponents made the 2025 playoffs, and it starts here. We have all three AFC West contenders at 10-7. This is the head-to-head that will look enormous in January. Kansas City is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 43, and given a 59.4% chance of winning. A 43 total for a Broncos-Chiefs opener is its own commentary on where these two offenses are.

Match-Up to Watch: Denver’s pass rush against Patrick Mahomes’ knee. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks, eleven clear of the field, with Nik Bonitto coming off a 14-sack season — and they’ll do it without Jonathon Cooper, who landed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List on Sunday. Mahomes was cleared to practice fully at the start of camp but has not taken a live hit since tearing his ACL in December. How he responds the first time Bonitto gets there is the most important thing that happens in Week 1.

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Below: full power rankings against the market and the models, over/under calls on all 32, a ranking of the eight divisions, the trench units that decide January, the ten best coaching staffs, division-by-division projections with a defining question for each team, and the five storylines that will shape the year.

Three outside inputs get referenced throughout. Clay is Mike Clay’s ESPN projection guide (updated August 12th), which produces a projected win total and 1-to-10 unit grades at ten positions for all 32 teams. Sharp is Warren Sharp’s work — both his strength-of-schedule model, where 1 is the easiest slate and 32 the hardest, and Raymond Summerlin’s Sharp Football power rankings. Line is the DraftKings win total. Where 2025 EPA rankings appear, they’re from The Ringer’s team pages; note that both Diante Lee’s power rankings and Steven Ruiz’s quarterback rankings there are February snapshots taken before free agency and the draft, so we’ve used the underlying data and film analysis rather than the orderings or the team labels.

Power Rankings Entering 2026

On the Chargers. NFL.com has them 17th and Clay projects 9.5 wins against what he rates the fourth-hardest schedule. But Sharp Football has them fifth, and we have them eighth — so this isn’t as lonely a position as it looked a week ago. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater both missed most of a season in which Los Angeles still won 11 games, and both are back. Mike McDaniel replaced Greg Roman as play-caller. Camp reports describe motion, constant personnel churn, and Justin Herbert diagnosing coverage pre-snap — from a team that ranked 24th in red-zone passer rating a year ago.

On the Packers. Sharp has Green Bay fourth, calling it an out-on-a-limb pick built on Jordan Love ranking sixth in EPA per dropback over three seasons. We can’t get there with Micah Parsons, Devonte Wyatt, Tucker Kraft and Zach Bako-Bewele all rehabbing and Josh Jacobs’ legal status unresolved.

Ranking the Eight Divisions

We have the NFC West first on top-end quality — the Rams, the champs, and a perennial January team — while NFL.com takes the NFC North for depth, and that’s a fair argument in a division where the 2025 champion (Chicago) finished ahead of a Lions team that tied for last at 9-8.

Our one real departure is at the bottom. NFL.com has the NFC South eighth, and the case is obvious: the 2025 division was decided by a three-way tiebreaker among 8-9 teams. But we’d rather have four teams that could all finish 8-9 than a division housing two of the league’s five worst rosters. Buffalo and New England are both very good. The Jets and Dolphins are projected for 9.7 combined wins by Clay’s model, and we have them at nine.

The Quarterback Tiers

Two industry surveys landed this summer, and they disagree in useful ways. Mike Sando’s annual tiers at The Athletic polled 50 coaches and executives on 35 veteran quarterbacks; ESPN separately surveyed more than 70 execs, coaches and scouts for a straight top 10.

Sando’s Tier 1 is four deep: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow. ESPN’s poll has Allen first and Mahomes second, with Stafford third — the two surveys agree almost entirely on who the elite are, and both moved Stafford up on the strength of his MVP season.

Tier 2 ballooned to 13, the largest in the survey’s history, and the ordering is where the interesting arguments live: Lamar Jackson (5), Justin Herbert (6), Dak Prescott (7), Drake Maye (8A), Jared Goff (8B), Jordan Love (10), Brock Purdy (11A), Caleb Williams (11B), Jayden Daniels (13), Baker Mayfield (14A), Sam Darnold (14B), Trevor Lawrence (16), Jalen Hurts (17). The lettered pairs are ties in Sando’s voting — Maye and Goff are jointly eighth and ninth, which is why the next name is 10th.

One caveat before anyone uses these as rankings: this is a perception survey, not a measurement. It tells you what evaluators believe, which is genuinely useful — those are the people who set trade markets and build game plans — but a coach’s ballot is not a metric.

With that said, three placements are worth flagging. Herbert at 6 is the highest any survey has put him. Hurts at 17, last in Tier 2 behind Darnold and Mayfield, tells you league evaluators remain dramatically less convinced by him than his team’s accomplishments would suggest — a gap that has persisted through a Super Bowl. And Nix at 18 says the league credits Denver’s 14 wins mostly to the roster around him — a reading the numbers both support and complicate, which we get into in the Broncos section. Our counter on Hurts is in the Eagles section below; the survey is worth reporting, not worth adopting.

Below the veterans: Jaxson Dart debuts at the top of Tier 3, Tua Tagovailoa fell to 26, Deshaun Watson sits 31st with brutal commentary attached, Michael Penix Jr. is 32nd, and J.J. McCarthy is 34th, with one voter offering that football looks hard for him.

Win Totals: Our Over/Under Call on All 32

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

Fifteen overs, seventeen unders, summing to 272 wins — so the standings that follow are internally consistent.

Five Teams Projected to Regress

1. Denver Broncos (14 wins → 10). Denver went 11-2 in one-score games last season and posted an NFL-record 12 comeback wins. That is not a repeatable baseline — but it’s also not luck alone, and the article’s earlier framing overstated it. Nix finished fourth in the NFL in red-zone QBR (82.6) and led the league outright in winning drives with seven. Payton’s teams are built to not take sacks, and Nix was sacked the ninth-fewest times among starters despite leading the league in both attempts (612) and dropbacks (667). Give them credit for the skill and still expect the record to come down. The Broncos remain excellent — a Bo Nix ankle fracture in the divisional round probably cost them a Super Bowl trip — but the close-game ledger evens out, and five of their first six opponents made the 2025 playoffs.

2. New England Patriots (14 → 10). New England rode one of the league’s softest schedules to Super Bowl LX and lost a long list of contributors: Stefon Diggs, Garrett Bradbury, K’Lavon Chaisson, Jahlani Tavai, Anfernee Jennings. Drake Maye is a legitimate top-five quarterback and A.J. Brown is a real addition — Clay still grades this the No. 4 roster in football. Ten wins and a wild-card berth is a good season here, and we’re less certain than most that Maye is ready to be the reason a team wins rather than a quarterback you can win with.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (13 → 9). The Jaguars didn’t lose from Week 11 through Week 18, and there’s a turnover-luck component to that nobody should ignore. They lost Travis Etienne and All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd, had no cap space and no draft capital after the Travis Hunter trade, and spent their only premium pick on a rotational blocking tight end. Trevor Lawrence’s surge was real; the roster around him is worse.

4. Chicago Bears (11 → 8). The reigning NFC North champions forced a league-leading 33 turnovers, which masked a defense that was ordinary down to down. Then came the third-hardest schedule by Sharp’s model, Drew Dalman’s surprise retirement, the DJ Moore trade to Buffalo, a groin injury costing Luther Burden III the preseason, and injuries to offseason signing Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon in the secondary. We still believe in Ben Johnson. We don’t believe in this number.

5. Seattle Seahawks (14 → 11). Regression, not decline. Klint Kubiak left for Las Vegas, Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City, Zach Charbonnet is working back from a torn ACL, and Nick Emmanwori opened camp on PUP. ESPN’s FPI cut Seattle’s defensive rating from 4.6 points per game to 2.1 on the general principle that elite defenses don’t stay elite. Note that John Schneider spent a first-round pick on Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price to address the backfield. Eleven wins and a deep January is still the likeliest outcome.

Five Teams That Look Improved

1. Baltimore Ravens (8 → 11). No returning player changes his team’s baseline more than a healthy Lamar Jackson. Trey Hendrickson is the most impactful edge addition any contender made, and Nnamdi Madubuike is back after neck surgery cost him nearly all of 2025. The schedule is fifth-easiest. Clay grades this the second-best roster in football.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (6 → 10). Kansas City went 1-9 in one-score games and lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in December. He was cleared to practice fully at the start of camp. Kenneth Walker III gives Andy Reid and returning coordinator Eric Bieniemy the early-down run game they haven’t had in three years. The rebuilt secondary leaning on rookie Mansoor Delane is the real worry.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (6 → 10). Joe Burrow has compared this roster to his 2019 LSU team, which is a lot, but Cincinnati finally invested on defense: the No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence, plus Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger. Clay projects 10.7 wins and the No. 3 offense with the second-easiest schedule, and we’ve landed essentially on the number. The defense doesn’t have to be good — it has to be average, which it has not been since 2022.

4. Los Angeles Chargers (11 → 11, but far better). Alt and Slater are healthy, McDaniel is calling plays, and the skill group — Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, Oronde Gadsden II, David Njoku, Charlie Kolar, with Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell behind Hampton — is the deepest of the Herbert era.

5. Tennessee Titans (3 → 6). Six wins isn’t a playoff team, but Robert Saleh with Gus Bradley on defense and Brian Daboll on offense is the most credible staff Tennessee has assembled in a decade. The front office added as many as six new defensive starters, and Carnell Tate at No. 4 overall finally gives Cam Ward a downfield weapon alongside Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley.

Top 8 Projected Offensive Lines

Our eight and Clay’s eight are the same eight teams, which is unusual and probably meaningful. Denver stands alone at the top with an 8 grade; the other seven all grade out at 7.

1. Denver Broncos — PFF’s No. 1 unit for a second straight year, with All-Pro guard Quinn Meinerz inside and Garett Bolles still holding up at left tackle. The foundation of everything Sean Payton does.
2. Philadelphia Eagles — All five starters return, including Lane Johnson, who has graded above 80.0 as a pass blocker for six consecutive seasons, and Jordan Mailata. Losing longtime line coach Jeff Stoutland to retirement is the wild card.
3. Los Angeles Rams — Arguably the best-performing line in football last year: second in pressure rate allowed, first in adjusted line yards, second-lowest stuff rate. Alaric Jackson’s availability is the question.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Tristan Wirfs earned a career-high 92.7 grade in 2025, and Luke Goedeke allowed neither a sack nor a hit across 416 pass-blocking snaps.
5. Buffalo Bills — Fourth in pressure rate, second in time to pressure, second in adjusted line yards, three years of continuity. Losing David Edwards costs them a spot.
6. San Francisco 49ers — Trent Williams turns 38 and posted his sixth straight 85-plus grade. San Francisco allowed the third-lowest pressure rate in football and added real depth behind the starters.
7. Los Angeles Chargers — Elite at tackle with Alt and Slater healthy, unproven on the interior with Cole Strange and rookie Jake Slaughter. The distance between those two facts is the Chargers’ season.
8. Chicago Bears — Joe Thuney grades a 9, Darnell Wright an 8. Dalman’s retirement drops them from top-three to here.

Just missed: Detroit, which added Cade Mays specifically to fix its interior and will now be without him for 8-10 weeks with a wrist injury, and Indianapolis, where Quenton Nelson and Bernhard Raimann anchor a group some outlets have inside their top five.

Top 8 Projected Defensive Lines

Clay grades interior and edge separately. Baltimore, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia lead the interior at 7; Pittsburgh and the Giants lead the edge at 8, with Houston and the Rams at 7. Combining both:

1. Los Angeles Rams — Myles Garrett won his second Defensive Player of the Year award and set the single-season sack record with 23 last year in Cleveland. He joins Kobie Turner, Poona Ford and Braden Fiske, with Byron Young opposite. Clay projects Garrett for 12.6 sacks. Aaron Donald has already worked out for the team.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers — The best pure pass-rush collection in football: T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, plus Cameron Heyward (a 9 grade at 37) and Derrick Harmon. Older than the rest of this tier and it hasn’t stopped mattering yet.
3. Philadelphia Eagles — A healthy Jalen Carter with Jordan Davis and Moro Ojomo may be the best interior trio in football, with Jalyx Hunt behind Jonathan Greenard. Greenard’s pec strain is the near-term concern.
4. Baltimore Ravens — Clay’s top-graded interior in the NFL: Madubuike and Travis Jones both grade 8, Calais Campbell a 7 in his 19th season. Hendrickson grades 8 on the edge. The questions are Madubuike’s health after neck surgery and whether Mike Green, coming off 3.5 rookie sacks, becomes the second rusher.
5. Seattle Seahawks — Leonard Williams grades a 9, Byron Murphy II a 7, Jarran Reed a 7. DeMarcus Lawrence still sets an edge. Losing Boye Mafe stings.
6. Houston Texans — Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. both grade 8, with Jadeveon Clowney at 6 as the third rusher. The backbone of Clay’s No. 2 defense.
7. New York Giants — Brian Burns (8), Abdul Carter (7) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (6) is the second-best edge room in football. The interior, after the Dexter Lawrence trade, is not.
8. Cincinnati Bengals — Lawrence grades a 9, B.J. Hill a 7, Jonathan Allen a 5, with Mafe added outside. The most aggressive front-line rebuild any team attempted.

Top 10 Coaching Staffs (Not Just Head Coaches)

CBS Sports polled twelve of its writers on the league’s best offensive and defensive play-callers, and the results reshaped this list. Only four teams placed a coordinator in the top ten on both sides: the Rams, Chiefs, Jaguars and Vikings. We’ve weighted that heavily, because a staff is a pair of units, not just a Head Coach.

1. Los Angeles Rams — McVay was the near-unanimous top offensive play-caller (105 points, never ranked lower than third) and Chris Shula finished seventh on defense, appearing on all but one ballot. The Rams ran 13 personnel on 30.5% of snaps last season, more than double the second-place Steelers.
2. Kansas City Chiefs — The best combined pair in football on the voting: Reid fourth on offense, Spagnuolo second on defense. Even in a six-win season Spagnuolo’s unit finished 10th in total defense and sixth in scoring. Bieniemy’s return replaces Matt Nagy, whose second Kansas City stint coincided with the offensive decline.
3. Seattle Seahawks — Macdonald was the unanimous No. 1 defensive play-caller, the only coach in either poll to appear first on every ballot. The lone reason Seattle isn’t higher is that Brian Fleury drew no votes and has never called plays.
4. Los Angeles Chargers — McDaniel was the only non-head-coach to make the offensive top ten, at fifth. Harbaugh’s .679 career win percentage does the rest; Chris O’Leary inherits the defense Minter built.
5. Philadelphia Eagles — Fangio placed fourth on defense, and his units have finished first and fifth in the relevant categories in his two Philadelphia seasons. Sean Mannion is the unknown.
6. San Francisco 49ers — Shanahan finished second on offense, and nobody has scheme-created more open receivers over the last decade. Raheem Morris drew votes on defense.
7. Denver Broncos — Vance Joseph placed eighth on defense after a unit that led the NFL with 68 sacks, eleven more than any other team and four short of the 1984 Bears’ record. Payton handing play-calling to Davis Webb is either smart delegation or the year’s biggest unforced error.
8. Houston Texans — Matt Burke took over play-calling early last season and Houston finished first in total defense and second in scoring. He placed tenth. Nick Caley’s offense is the open question.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars — One of the four staffs with both coordinators ranked: Coen seventh on offense, Campanile ninth on defense after a debut year with the Jaguars eighth in scoring defense and second in takeaways.
10. Chicago Bears — Ben Johnson finished third on offense and got a first-place vote. Chicago graded fifth in both PFF pass blocking and run blocking last year, which is the tell on his line schemes. Dennis Allen’s defense is the swing.

Just missed: Minnesota, the fourth team with both coordinators ranked (O’Connell eighth, Flores fifth after a defense that led the league in pressure rate); Green Bay, where LaFleur placed ninth on offense; and Detroit, where neither Drew Petzing nor Kelvin Sheppard drew a vote.

And a note on Baltimore, since this is a Ravens site and the temptation is obvious: we left them off. Jesse Minter has never been a head coach, Declan Doyle is 30 and has never called an NFL offense, and the two of them have never coached a game together. The pieces are genuinely intriguing, and one of them is better than intriguing: Minter finished third among all defensive play-callers in the CBS poll, behind only Macdonald and Spagnuolo and ahead of Fangio and Flores, on the strength of disciplined units and excellent secondary play under Jim Harbaugh. That is a real endorsement. But Doyle received no votes and has never called an NFL offense, and half a staff isn’t a staff. This group could be top-five by December. It hasn’t earned the ranking yet. 

Projected Finishes by Division

AFC East

1. Bills 12-5 | 2. Patriots 10-7 | 3. Jets 5-12 | 4. Dolphins 4-13

Buffalo. Joe Brady inherits a perennial contender, Clay’s No. 2 offense, a top-five offensive line, and a new stadium. The pass-catching group is genuinely good now — DJ Moore arriving from Chicago alongside Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox at tight end — and James Cook, the reigning rushing champion, plus Ray Davis is a strong backfield. Buffalo finished first in the NFL in rushing offense by EPA last season and 31st in rushing defense — the widest split of any contender, and the reason the McDermott firing followed a four-turnover divisional-round loss in Denver. Strength: Allen, both lines, and a division that is functionally a head start. Weakness: edge depth behind Gregory Rousseau and Bradley Chubb is thin, and Clay grades the linebacker corps a 3, the lowest mark of any contender at any position. The question: how does this defense adjust to Jim Leonhard’s scheme? Nineteen different defensive play-callers drew a vote in CBS’s poll — the widest spread of any category they surveyed — and Leonhard finished with exactly one point, from a single tenth-place ballot. Buffalo is our AFC favorite, and the case against them rests almost entirely on that answer.

New England. The A.J. Brown trade genuinely upgraded a skill group that was underwhelming a year ago, and Rhamondre Stevenson with TreVeyon Henderson is a complementary backfield worth watching. Alijah Vera-Tucker, first-round tackle Caleb Lomu and Jared Wilson moving back to his natural spot at center should make life easier up front. Strength: a secondary where Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Craig Woodson and Kevin Byard all grade 8. Weakness: heavy defensive attrition and an offseason dominated by Mike Vrabel’s off-field problems. The question: Maye finished second in MVP voting — is that who he is, or did everything around him go right at once? He’s clearly good enough to win with; we’re not yet convinced he’s the reason a team wins, which is why we’re below the market here. In fairness to the other side: Maye led the entire NFL in both EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expectation last season, and his +10.8 CPOE wasn’t close to anyone else’s. The case against him is the postseason, where New England’s offense was overmatched by a run of elite defenses.

New York Jets. The most interesting bad team in football. New York did not record a single interception in 2025 — an almost impossible statistic — and finished 32nd in passing defense by EPA per dropback, and responded by rebuilding most of the defensive starting lineup, with Aaron Glenn taking over play-calling himself. Clay now grades the Jets’ linebackers eighth-best in the league and their defense 10th, with Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety and T’Vondre Sweat, Harrison Phillips and David Onyemata inside. Strength: the front seven, plus a draft class of David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr. and D’Angelo Ponds. Weakness: Smith threw a league-high 17 interceptions last season and finished 34th in EPA per dropback; Clay projects 14 more picks. The question: can this defense drag a 7-win roster into relevance?

Miami. This was a 7-10 team a year ago. Then Tyreek Hill was cut, Tua Tagovailoa and Minkah Fitzpatrick were moved out, and Jaylen Waddle and Bradley Chubb were traded. Clay now projects 2.4 wins — the lowest number in the guide — with the 32nd-ranked offense, 32nd-ranked defense, and roughly $180 million in dead cap. Strength: De’Von Achane, Zach Sieler and Jordyn Brooks are legitimate players. Weakness: a receiving corps with no threat above a 3 grade, and the second-hardest schedule. The question: how does Miami even evaluate Malik Willis with these weapons?

AFC North

1. Ravens 11-6 | 2. Bengals 10-7 | 3. Steelers 8-9 | 4. Browns 5-12

For the first time since 2021, the AFC North champion won with just 10 wins, and it took a Week 18 classic in Pittsburgh to settle it. Three of the four teams have new Head Coaches. The division needs to be better than it was.

Baltimore. Eighteen years of John Harbaugh ended in January, and Jesse Minter walks into as much pressure as any first-year coach in the league. He inherits a two-time MVP, Clay’s second-best roster, the fifth-easiest schedule, and a mandate that isn’t “make the playoffs” but “win in them.”

The strengths are enormous and specific, and last year’s EPA splits describe the team precisely: Baltimore finished first in rushing offense and third in rushing defense, and 21st in passing offense and 18th in passing defense. Clay’s model projects them to lead the NFL in both rushing attempts and rushing yards while ranking dead last in pass attempts — a run-first bully team by design, with Derrick Henry projected for 1,482 yards and 13 touchdowns at 32. Kyle Hamilton grades a 9, and the safety group is the best-graded unit at any position on any roster in the league. Madubuike, Travis Jones and Campbell give Minter the interior he needs, and Hendrickson gives him the edge rusher the last two Ravens teams lacked. Clay has the defense fourth overall and second in sacks.

The soft spots are equally specific: receiver and tight end both grade 5. Zay Flowers just got $35 million a year and needs to prove he’s a true No. 1 rather than an excellent No. 2, and behind him it’s a rehabilitating Rashod Bateman, a 31-year-old Mark Andrews coming off a quiet year, and a draft class asked to contribute immediately — Ja’Kobi Lane in the third round, Elijah Sarratt in the fourth, Matthew Hibner in the fourth, Josh Cuevas in the fifth. Here is the cleanest way to state the problem: exactly three players on this roster have ever caught more than ten passes from Lamar Jackson. Flowers, Bateman and Andrews. That’s it. The interior offensive line is a projection: Ethan Pocic replacing Tyler Linderbaum while returning from a torn Achilles, John Simpson at left guard, rookie Vega Ioane at right guard. Marlon Humphrey has to bounce back at 30. And Madubuike’s neck surgery means nobody really knows what this defense is until October. The question: how much of the last two seasons was actually coaching?

The Lamar question nobody in Baltimore wants to ask. Start with the disagreement: The Ringer’s Diante Lee ranked Jackson the third-best quarterback in football this offseason, ahead of Herbert, Maye, Prescott and Burrow. That is the high end of his range, and it’s a real evaluation. But three other measures docked him this summer, and they all point at the same thing. Before doing that, note what actually happened: Jackson opened 2025 completing better than 70 percent of his throws at 9.1 yards per attempt with a 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, then hurt his hamstring. After he returned he was visibly slower, scrambled less, held the ball longer and stopped pushing it downfield. Steven Ruiz’s read at The Ringer was that Jackson’s decision-making itself appeared to be a function of his health. He slid 67 spots to No. 69 on the players’ Top 100. He dropped out of Sando’s Tier 1 back to the top of Tier 2 after making his Tier 1 debut a year ago. And the stated reason wasn’t the missed games — it was that his rushing yards per game fell by roughly half year over year. One opposing coach told Sando “I’m not sure how much he wants to run and take hits anymore,” adding that Jackson can’t be special without the threat of the run.

Jackson has spent three years becoming a better pocket passer specifically so he doesn’t have to absorb that punishment, and at 29, protecting his body is rational — he’s now been limited to 13 games or fewer in three of five seasons. But Clay’s model projects him for 671 rushing yards on 122 carries, which would be a meaningful bounce-back, and it projects Baltimore to lead the NFL in rushing attempts and rushing yards. Declan Doyle’s first real job is finding ways to make Jackson a run threat without making him a target.

And here’s the case nobody is making loudly enough. The knock on Baltimore is a rookie head coach and a 30-year-old first-time play-caller. But Jackson has won MVP in the first season of each of his last two new offensive coordinators — unanimously under Greg Roman in 2019, the second unanimous winner in league history, and again under Todd Monken in 2023. Twenty-two teams have a new offensive coordinator this year. There is no quarterback in football with a better track record of absorbing one.

The schematic details are more interesting than the personnel questions. Doyle has Jackson taking more snaps under center than in any previous camp, and Jackson expects that to carry into the season. He has been under center for five percent of his career snaps; since 2018 his 226 under-center snaps are the second fewest of any quarterback with 50 starts, behind Kyler Murray. And over those same eight seasons, Jackson has posted the highest QBR in the NFL from under center — 81.2, with 20 touchdowns and one interception. It’s the least-used and most productive part of his game. Doyle is also drilling cadence, which is a strange thing to have to fix and an obvious place to find yards: since 2019 Baltimore has drawn defenses offside 33 times, fewer than every team but New Orleans and New England, and Jackson has exactly one career completion on a free play. The transition isn’t seamless — the offense false-started eight times in a single August practice varying its cadences, and Jackson spiked his helmet after a two-minute drill ran out of clock — but the direction is clear, and Jackson attended the voluntary spring work to get a head start on it.

Cincinnati. Burrow missed nine games and the defense still couldn’t get out of its own way. The Dexter Lawrence trade is the swing this franchise needed, with second-rounder Cashius Howell arriving to push Myles Murphy for snaps opposite Boye Mafe. Strength: Clay’s No. 3 offense — Burrow, one of only four quarterbacks voted into Sando’s Tier 1, plus Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — and the second-easiest schedule. Weakness: a linebacker room grading 4, a defense Clay still ranks 25th, and an offensive line with real questions inside. The question: how good is Amarius Mims in Year 3? If he’s a legitimate starting tackle, the bookends are set and the interior becomes solvable. Worth noting on that front: Cincinnati’s line actually allowed the third-lowest pressure rate in football last season, and Burrow’s own reluctance to give up on plays is part of why the sack and hit totals stay high. He also posted the league’s lowest off-target throw rate. And while everyone spends August discussing Lamar Jackson’s missed time, Burrow has missed a comparable amount over the same stretch — that’s the quieter version of the same problem.

Pittsburgh. The defending division champions. Mike Tomlin never had a losing season in 20 years; Mike McCarthy inherits the streak. Rodgers returns for a 22nd season and turns 43 in December, and the arm is still there — but the ability to escape and extend is not. Expect defenses to crowd the line and dare him to get the ball out immediately, over and over. The tape already says they will: in 2025 Rodgers posted both the lowest average time to throw and the lowest average depth of target in the NFL, and he has essentially stopped working the middle of the field. He finished 23rd in EPA per dropback and 33rd in success rate. Around him is a real supporting cast: Michael Pittman Jr. and Rico Dowdle join DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth, with first-round tackle Max Iheanachor added up front. Strength: Clay’s No. 3 defense, headlined by the league’s best edge group and a secondary with Jalen Ramsey, Joey Porter Jr., Jamel Dean, Jaquan Brisker and Darnell Savage. Weakness: Clay ranks the offense 26th. The question: can Rodgers be a middle-of-the-pack starter? If so, this is a division threat, not a third-place team — and that’s the single biggest swing in the AFC North.

Cleveland. Todd Monken finally landed a top job — a hire that drove respected DC Jim Schwartz out of the building — and inherits a four-way quarterback competition between Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel and rookie Taylen Green. Strength: Cleveland finished first in the NFL in passing defense by EPA per dropback last season, and the 2025 draft class delivered Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger plus Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr., with Jared Verse arriving in the Garrett trade as a cost-controlled young edge who fits the timeline. Weakness: the offense finished 32nd in that same metric — dead last, and not close — which is what Clay’s 31st-ranked projection is built on, alongside a presumptive starter in Watson who ranked 31st of 35 in the tiers with some of the harshest commentary in the survey. The question: is this a competition or an audition for the 2027 draft?

AFC South

1. Texans 11-6 | 2. Jaguars 9-8 | 3. Colts 7-10 | 4. Titans 6-11

Houston. After an 0-3 start, Houston won 12 of 14 including a nine-game closing streak before losing to New England in the divisional round. The offseason went entirely into the offense: Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller signed, David Montgomery acquired from Detroit, Keylan Rutledge drafted. Woody Marks is usable but he isn’t Jahmyr Gibbs, which means Montgomery should see more touches here than he did in his last couple of years in Detroit. Strength: a defense that finished first in total defense and second in scoring after Ryans handed play-calling to Matt Burke early last season, with a corner group grading 8 — Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre. Weakness: Clay ranks the offense 22nd, and Stroud’s 2023 turnover avoidance looks more like an outlier every year. The question: from October on, Stroud ranked seventh in EPA per dropback behind a bad line and no run game, then had a disastrous playoff run. Analysts loved his rookie season; entering 2026 he has a long list of detractors. If he’s average, Houston probably wins the South. If he’s a top-third quarterback, Houston can win the AFC. Montgomery giving this offense a consistent play-action game is the likeliest bridge between those outcomes.

Jacksonville. The popular sleeper of the summer, on the strength of how they closed 2025 — unbeaten from Week 11 through Week 18 — and of a roster people keep describing in terms of collective team speed. GM James Gladstone was content to run it back. Strength: Coen’s scheme, a defense that ranked first in EPA per play from Week 11 on, and Joshua Hines-Allen grading a 9. Weakness: everyone says running backs are replaceable, and we still didn’t like losing Travis Etienne; Devin Lloyd is gone too, and there was no cap space or draft capital to replace either. The question: it comes down to how you evaluate Trevor Lawrence. From November on he ranked fourth in the NFL in total EPA and success rate and drew MVP votes, with the midseason Jakobi Meyers trade a real catalyst — though he still finished 27th in completion percentage over expectation on the full season. If you believe better coaching has turned the corner, be optimistic. Secondary questions: does Brian Thomas Jr. rebound, and what does Travon Walker actually give this defense?

Indianapolis. The Colts were the most explosive offense in football through two months, then Daniel Jones got hurt, the season collapsed, and they were reduced to unretiring Philip Rivers. Jones was legitimately good in the first half of last season, and the play-action game built off Jonathan Taylor — newly paid at two years, $44 million, and grading a 9 — is the foundation. Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs won’t frighten anyone, but it’s a usable group. Strength: an offensive line with Quenton Nelson and Bernhard Raimann, plus DeForest Buckner. Weakness: Clay grades the linebackers 3, and the receiving room thinned when Pittman went to Pittsburgh. The question: there’s a clear path to this defense being better than last year, and it starts with availability — several projected starters missed significant time, none more important than 2025 trade acquisition Sauce Gardner.

Tennessee. New coach, new coordinators, new uniforms harking back to the Oilers. Saleh builds dominant defenses; Daboll got one great year out of Josh Allen and one good year out of Daniel Jones. Strength: a front anchored by Jeffery Simmons, who grades a 9 and projects for a league-leading 9.3 sacks among interior linemen. Weakness: Clay’s 29th offense and 28th defense — the roster is still two drafts away. The question: Ward finished 33rd of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, success rate and yards per dropback — and improved in all three over the back half of the season while nearly halving his sack rate after Brian Callahan was fired. How much of that carries into Year 2 with a real No. 1 receiver and simplified reads?

AFC West

1. Chargers 10-7 | 2. Broncos 10-7 | 3. Chiefs 10-7 | 4. Raiders 6-11

Three teams projected at 10-7, and only two of them get in. It’s the tightest division in football and the one most likely to embarrass us.

Los Angeles. Eleven wins without both All-Pro tackles for most of the year. Now they’re back, and McDaniel is calling plays. Losing Minter to Baltimore should matter, and as Ravens fans we’d like to think it will — but Harbaugh has always found a path, and he always builds physical teams. First-round pick Akheem Mesidor was a good add to a front where Tuli Tuipulotu’s 13 sacks last season have gone strangely unnoticed; the open question is what Khalil Mack has left after 17 sacks in 2023 and 11.5 combined since. The Chargers ranked 23rd in passing offense by EPA per dropback last season, which is the whole explanation for the McDaniel hire — though the context matters. Herbert took 54 sacks behind the league’s highest pressure rate, playing through a broken hand that required midseason surgery, in front of a line that shuffled through nearly three dozen starting combinations. He responded by setting a career high in scramble rate and averaging nine yards per dropback outside of structure. Strength: Herbert, who checked in sixth in Sando’s tiers and fourth on The Ringer’s board, ran for 498 yards last year — also underdiscussed — and behind two returning All-Pro tackles has the deepest skill group of his era, with Derwin James anchoring the back end. Weakness: the interior offensive line, and two models that read the schedule very differently — Sharp has it middle-of-the-pack (20th-easiest), Clay the fourth-hardest in football. The question: does Tre Harris take a step? If he does, this receiver room is a problem for people. And for what it’s worth: contracts and age aside, if we were building a team to win one season, we’d take Herbert over Maye.

Denver. Denver has gone 25-11 with Nix starting, made the playoffs in both his seasons after missing eight straight, and returns 20 of 22 starters from an AFC Championship Game roster. Since drafting him 12th overall they’ve committed more than $300 million in guarantees to the players around him — Zach Allen, Quinn Meinerz, Nik Bonitto, Courtland Sutton, Pat Surtain II, Garett Bolles — and sent first-, third- and fourth-round picks to Miami for Jaylen Waddle. J.K. Dobbins had injury trouble again but was productive when available, and whether RJ Harvey’s 3.7 yards per carry climbs in Year 2 matters. Strength: the best offensive line in football, Bonitto coming off a 14-sack season, and a unit that led the NFL with 68 sacks — eleven clear of the field and four short of the 1984 Bears’ record.

The honest case on Nix runs both ways, and it’s more interesting than his tier placement. He’s the third quarterback in league history with 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, after Peyton Manning and Justin Herbert, and he leads all six first-round quarterbacks from the 2024 class in wins, passing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns and total touchdowns — ahead of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. He was also, in Ruiz’s reading, one of the NFL’s best fourth-quarter quarterbacks and mediocre outside of it, finishing 30th in success rate. He finished 26th in completion percentage over expectation at minus-2.1%, completed 44.1% of throws travelling 10-plus air yards and 36.1% of throws travelling 20-plus, and attempted only 40 passes between the hashmarks all season against 234 outside the numbers. Opposing coordinators have noticed, and they’ll keep making him look at the middle of the field. First-year coordinator Davis Webb spent the offseason working on getting him off his first read faster.

Weakness: the ankle. Nix has fractured one in high school, college and the NFL, and has had three surgeries in two Denver seasons including an April cleanup for bone spurs. The question: is Waddle the missing piece? There’s a contract underneath all of this — Nix carries a $5.076 million cap charge, the 19th-highest on his own team, and the top twelve quarterbacks now average north of $51 million a year. A big season makes that a nine-figure guarantee. A flat one probably means Denver picks up the fifth-year option and waits.

Kansas City. Six wins, 1-9 in one-score games, a torn ACL. Mahomes was cleared to practice fully when camp opened. This offense may never be explosive again, but it will remain productive as long as he’s available — and adding Kenneth Walker III gives them a downhill thumper and, with it, a real play-action game. Two first-round picks and a second went into the defense, which is the kind of investment that tends to show up gradually; Spagnuolo’s units almost always look better in December than September. Strength: Mahomes, Reid, Creed Humphrey (a 9), Chris Jones, and genuine speed at receiver. Weakness: a rebuilt secondary leaning on rookie Mansoor Delane, and Xavier Worthy nursing another shoulder issue. The question: even if he stays available, what does Mahomes look like scrambling on a repaired knee — and does he start getting the ball out quicker?

Las Vegas. Klint Kubiak asked for a veteran quarterback so he wouldn’t have to throw the No. 1 overall pick into the fire, and got Kirk Cousins. Tyler Linderbaum fixes the center spot; Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker rebuild the linebacker room. Strength: Maxx Crosby (a 9, projected for 10.9 sacks), Brock Bowers (a 9), Ashton Jeanty. Weakness: no receiver above a 5 grade. The question: how long can they justify keeping Mendoza on the bench?

NFC East

1. Eagles 10-7 | 2. Cowboys 9-8 | 3. Commanders 7-10 | 4. Giants 6-11

Philadelphia. Eleven wins, a division title, a wild-card exit against San Francisco, and negative vibes throughout. A.J. Brown is gone, Dontayvion Wicks and Riq Woolen arrive, Sean Mannion installs the Shanahan-McVay system after Kevin Patullo was fired, and Fangio still runs the defense. Dallas Goedert is coming off an 11-touchdown season, and we liked the Eli Stowers pick in the second round behind him. Strength: All-Pros in the secondary with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis up front — that’s the start of any good defense — plus Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun both grading 9. Weakness: an unsettled receiver room, and a safety group grading 3. The question: does Makai Lemon produce right away, and does Barkley bounce back from 4.1 yards per carry after 5.8 the year before? On Hurts: the scrutiny has gotten excessive. Finishing second in MVP voting in 2022 was hyperbole, and so is the criticism now. He’s been to two Super Bowls, won one, was its MVP, and has three Pro Bowls. You can fixate on the flaws or appreciate what he is. Ruiz’s film read lands in the same place: the efficiency decline in 2025 traced to a bad scheme rather than any regression in Hurts’s skill set, and Patullo lost his job over it. Our guess is he remains good enough.

Dallas. The Cowboys had the league’s second-best offense — two 1,000-yard receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the NFL’s third-rated passer in Dak Prescott, and a quietly very productive year from Javonte Williams — and finished 7-9-1 because they couldn’t stop anybody — 31st in passing defense and 30th in rushing defense by EPA. So they threw the kitchen sink at the defense: Rashan Gary, Dee Winters, Otito Ogbonnia, Jalen Thompson and Cobie Durant via free agency and trade, first-round picks on Caleb Downs and edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, and Christian Parker hired from Philadelphia to coordinate. The run defense in particular looks improved. Strength: Clay’s No. 6 offense — if Dallas can block, this unit puts up points. Weakness: they’ll still likely have to scheme pressure rather than generate it, and the schedule is fifth-hardest. The question: can this defense be merely average? If it is, Dallas is a playoff team.

Washington. In 2024 they reached the NFC Championship Game and everyone was in love with Jayden Daniels. In 2025 they slipped to 5-12 and nobody believes in them. Dan Quinn overhauled both coordinator spots — David Blough on offense, Daronte Jones on defense — and there’s a heavy Maryland flavor to the additions: former Terps Stefon Diggs and Chigoziem Okonkwo should both help immediately, and Nick Cross joins the secondary. Former Raven Odafe Oweh gets a chance to build on what he did in Los Angeles. We loved the Sonny Styles selection. Strength: Daniels grades a 7 and is an MVP-caliber player when upright. Weakness: Laremy Tunsil tore a triceps and is likely to miss a significant portion of the season, and Washington finished dead last in the NFL in yards allowed. The question: can Daniels stay on the field? If he does, he can probably drag this roster to .500.

New York. John Harbaugh’s second act should at minimum be more organized, and paired with a manageable schedule there’s a version of this that surprises people. Under new coordinator Dennard Wilson, the front seven pairs Brian Burns and Abdul Carter with Kayvon Thibodeaux, rookie Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds — Clay’s second-best edge group. Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard followed Harbaugh from Baltimore and should both be productive, and Odell Beckham Jr. is back in a Giants uniform. Strength: real defensive talent, plus Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart, who debuted atop Tier 3. Weakness: Dart has obvious talent and a playing style that doesn’t inspire confidence about his availability; Malik Nabers isn’t practicing fully; the interior line thinned after the Lawrence trade. The question: probably too many unknowns to project a leap — but if Dart, Nabers and Skattebo are mostly available, this becomes a team nobody enjoys facing in the second half of the season.

NFC North

1. Lions 11-6 | 2. Packers 10-7 | 3. Bears 8-9 | 4. Vikings 8-9

The best division in football by most accounts, and the one where all four teams have a credible argument.

Detroit. Nine-and-eight and tied for last in the division a year ago, and now the easiest schedule in football by both models — which is why Clay projects 12 wins and the NFL’s second-best record. The Lions added to both lines in the draft, and this offense remains formidable, especially at home on the turf. Goff keeps posting gaudy numbers; he’s another quarterback who isn’t elite and is unquestionably good enough to win with. Strength: Amon-Ra St. Brown (9), Aidan Hutchinson (9), Jack Campbell (9), Penei Sewell (8) moving to left tackle, Sam LaPorta (8). Weakness: Cade Mays out 8-10 weeks, Terrion Arnold gone, both starting safeties opening camp on PUP — Sharp dropped Detroit three spots on the secondary alone. The questions: Gibbs no longer has David Montgomery to share the load, so does Isiah Pacheco — who hasn’t looked right in two years — revert to anything like his 2023 form? And what do D.J. Wonnum and Derrick Moore actually give Detroit opposite Hutchinson?

Green Bay. The Packers were 9-3-1 on December 7 and top-five in several defensive categories. Then Micah Parsons tore his ACL, they lost four straight, and they blew a 21-3 lead to Chicago in the wild card. We like this team, starting with Jordan Love, who has enormous ability; a healthy Tucker Kraft is a top-tier tight end, and Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden all have talent and all have questions. It falls to Love to elevate that group. Strength: Parsons and Xavier McKinney both grade 9; Zach Tom grades 8. Weakness: Josh Jacobs’ unresolved legal situation sours the outlook, and the contingency is MarShawn Lloyd — the former DeMatha standout who had six carries in 2024 and missed 2025 entirely. The question: Parsons is eyeing a Week 6 return. How good is this defense without him, how long does the rust last, and does he get back to his prior peak in 2026?

Chicago. The defending division champion, and Year 3 for Caleb Williams is bringing a lot of hype. To his credit he made marked improvement from Year 1 to Year 2, and Ben Johnson fixed the sack problem in a single offseason. Feeding D’Andre Swift, who averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season, would only help him further. Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III are a solid duo, and Colston Loveland’s emergence as a rookie first-rounder is a big reason Cole Kmet fell from 73 catches in 2023 to 30 last year. It’s still a good group — just not as deep without DJ Moore, and third-rounder Zavion Thomas has to be integrated. Strength: an offensive line grading 7, with Joe Thuney at 9. Weakness: Chicago brought in multiple options at left tackle without an obvious answer, Burden misses the preseason with a groin injury, Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon are hurt, and Sharp ranks the schedule third-hardest. The questions: Williams completed 58.1 percent of his throws last season — nowhere near Ben Johnson’s stated preseason goal of 70 percent — and ranked 34th in completion percentage over expectation even while setting the franchise single-season passing record and winning Chicago’s first playoff game since 2011. That gap between the highlight throws and the routine ones is the step. Also: that secondary generated a mountain of turnovers in 2025 — is any of that sustainable? They had losses at safety and added first-rounder Dillon Thieneman to replace them. And can Williams take another step?

Minnesota. Kyler Murray won the job outright; J.J. McCarthy’s camp was described by one veteran beat writer as the football yips. Murray has started multiple seasons hot enough to draw MVP chatter by Week 6 and has never sustained it, with the usual explanation being that he wears down over a full year given his size. But the skill talent here is better than anything he’s had. Minnesota spent its first three picks on defense, and Jonathan Greenard’s departure for Philadelphia will be felt. Strength: Justin Jefferson grades a 9, and Brian Flores — whose defense finished third in the NFL in passing EPA allowed while the offense finished 29th — is the best coordinator alive at extracting production from a unit without stars. Weakness: Clay grades the quarterback room a 4. The question: is it crazy to think Murray could approximate what Sam Darnold did here in 2024? And if he doesn’t reach those highs but lands somewhere near average, is that enough in this division?

NFC South

1. Buccaneers 9-8 | 2. Saints 8-9 | 3. Panthers 8-9 | 4. Falcons 6-11

Last year this division produced a three-way tie at 8-9, with Carolina taking the crown on a tiebreaker. It’s the closest race on the board and the division where we’ve changed our mind the most.

Tampa Bay. We’re taking the talent. Baker Mayfield called the club’s reported two-year, $100-million-plus offer disrespectful and will play out his deal — and a healthy Mayfield playing with a chip on his shoulder is not the worst thing that could happen to this offense. Vita Vea has requested a trade and is holding in, Mike Evans left for San Francisco and Lavonte David retired. But Emeka Egbuka is back after drawing 127 targets as a rookie, Wirfs and Goedeke anchor a top-four line, and Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith are one of the best safety duos in football. Zac Robinson arrives from Atlanta as Mayfield’s newest coordinator. Strength: the trenches on both sides. Weakness: the vibes, which are objectively terrible. The questions: Bucky Irving played all 17 games as a rookie in 2024 and averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 207 attempts; last year he was limited to 10 games and 3.4 yards on 173. Which is the real number? And Chris Godwin has played 16 total games across two seasons — this offense looks meaningfully better if he’s available.

New Orleans. The under-the-radar pick that nearly became our division pick. The Saints went 5-4 in games Tyler Shough started and 1-7 otherwise, added Travis Etienne and guard David Edwards, drafted Jordyn Tyson eighth overall, and paid Chris Olave up to $132 million. Kellen Moore is in Year 2 with a defined starter, Brandon Staley runs the defense, and Chase Young is coming off 10 sacks in 12 games. Strength: schedule and trajectory. Weakness: over $112 million in dead cap, no depth in the trenches, and Bryan Bresee lost for the year. The question: Shough had the league’s worst pressure-to-sack ratio and a bottom-ten off-target rate, which is a real ceiling on a quarterback who otherwise showed enough. Is he good enough to make the leap this roster is quietly built for?

Carolina. The defending champs overcame a 1-3 start with a 7-6 finish, then had the best offseason in the division — Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd, Rasheed Walker, first-round tackle Monroe Freeling — and have been bitten harder by the injury bug than any team in football. Nic Scourton and rookie receiver Chris Brazzell are out for the year; Taylor Moton and Ikem Ekwonu are on uncertain timetables. Add the third-hardest schedule and Clay’s 5.9-win projection, and we’re taking the over mostly on Derrick Brown (a 9), Devin Lloyd and Tetairoa McMillan. The question: is last year’s version of Bryce Young the real one — and does it matter given the circumstances?

Atlanta. Raheem Morris and GM Terry Fontenot are gone; Kevin Stefanski, Ian Cunningham and team president Matt Ryan inherit a quarterback position that was largely dreadful in 2025. Nobody believes Tua Tagovailoa gets through a season unscathed, and this is Year 3 for Michael Penix Jr., who still hasn’t been cleared for 11-on-11 work — which is why Atlanta signed Cooper Rush in late July. But neither has to be excellent. Tua’s Miami offenses had real stretches, particularly early in seasons; Penix was the eighth pick two years ago. The film reads are unkind to both. Penix completed 60.1 percent of his throws and ranked 35th in completion percentage over expectation, with Drake London and Kyle Pitts bailing out a lot of high misses, and his knee injury was the third ACL tear of his career. Tagovailoa was among the league’s least productive passers between the numbers from 10 to 25 air yards, with a 1-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio on those throws. Strength: the surrounding talent is legitimately good — Bijan Robinson grades a 9 on a new deal worth nearly $67 million, with Drake London (8), Kyle Pitts (7) and Jahan Dotson, plus Jessie Bates and Xavier Watts on the back end. Weakness: right tackle could be a limiting issue, which matters more than usual given both quarterbacks are left-handed and Jawaan Taylor is protecting the blind side.

We’ve projected 6-11, and it’s worth being explicit about why, because it isn’t a verdict on the roster. Tagovailoa’s medical history is what it is — he has been one significant hit away from the end of his career for two years running — and Penix has his own long injury record on top of a knee that still hasn’t cleared him for 11-on-11 work. There’s a genuine scenario where one of them settles in as something like the 20th-best quarterback in the league, the surrounding talent does the rest, and Atlanta finishes near .500. We just can’t project it. The median outcome for a team whose two options both carry this much availability risk is a season spent cycling through quarterbacks, and that’s what 6-11 represents. The questions: can either one simply be available and avoid turnovers? Does edge rusher James Pearce Jr. miss time behind Jalon Walker, already lost for the year? And can this run defense stop anybody?

NFC West

1. Rams 13-4 | 2. Seahawks 11-6 | 3. 49ers 10-7 | 4. Cardinals 4-13

Los Angeles. The closest thing to a preseason superteam the league has had in years: +550 to win it all, 14.9 percent in ESPN’s FPI, and the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense in Clay’s grades — the only team in the guide to lead both. Stafford is the reigning MVP and projects for 4,282 yards and 35 touchdowns. Puka Nacua led the league in receptions and receiving yards per game and grades a 9, with Davante Adams opposite. Strength: no obvious below-average starting unit anywhere on the roster. Weakness: off-field uncertainty around Nacua, and a schedule both models rank among the six hardest. The question: is Aaron Donald coming back — and is there any acceptable excuse if this team doesn’t finish the job in its own building?

Seattle. Fourteen wins, the NFC’s top seed, three losses by a combined nine points, and a Super Bowl blowout. DVOA rated them the third-best champion ever. Strength: Macdonald’s defense, with Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon and reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba all grading 9, and Julian Love, Emmanwori, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas at 8. Weakness: a first-time play-caller, and the departure of a Super Bowl MVP who ran for 135 yards in the title game, with Charbonnet still rehabbing and Emmanwori on PUP. Second is aggressive for a team that lost a Super Bowl MVP — but Sharp has them third, NFL.com third and Clay fourth in projected wins, and nobody has actually beaten them yet. The question: what does this offense look like when nobody is propping Sam Darnold up?

San Francisco. A twelve-win season, a road playoff win in Philadelphia, and a divisional-round exit against the eventual champions. In most divisions the 49ers would be expected to contend. In this one they feel destined for third behind the Rams and Seahawks. The offense has recognizable names and real talent, and also a lot of age: Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk are all older and none of them are finished. Christian McCaffrey was excellent as a receiver out of the backfield last year but averaged 3.9 yards per carry as a pure runner, well below his career norms. Strength: Shanahan, plus McCaffrey, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa all grading 9. Weakness: Ricky Pearsall’s surgery was damaging, Trent Williams is 38, and Kittle is still working back from an Achilles tear. The questions: Brock Purdy was limited to nine games last season and this team can’t surprise anyone if that repeats — though Mac Jones played well in his opportunities. Where are Bosa and Warner physically after their 2025 injuries? And can 2026 second-rounder De’Zhaun Stribling get involved early enough to matter?

Arizona. Mike LaFleur inherits the hardest schedule in the league by both models. Jacoby Brissett is QB1 with Gardner Minshew behind him and third-round pick Carson Beck lurking; Clay grades the room a 3. Strength: more weapons than the record will suggest — Trey McBride grades a 9, No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love an 8, with Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Paris Johnson Jr. and Isaac Seumalo. Josh Sweat and Walter Nolen give the front real juice when healthy. Weakness: everything else. The question: can Arizona get Harrison back on track after two years of offensive dysfunction?

Projected Playoff Seeding

BSL AFC: 1. Bills · 2. Ravens · 3. Texans · 4. Chargers · 5. Broncos · 6. Patriots · 7. Bengals BSL NFC: 1. Rams · 2. Lions · 3. Eagles · 4. Buccaneers · 5. Seahawks · 6. Packers · 7. 49ers

Buffalo is our AFC favorite outright; Baltimore is the North favorite and close behind, with Denver, the Chargers and Houston in the next group. The Chargers win the West at 10-7 in a three-way scrum with Denver and Kansas City, which is about as thin a division title as we could project. The sixth and seventh seeds are a genuine coin flip between New England and Cincinnati, and the argument runs in both directions: Cincinnati has the better schedule and the higher ceiling, New England the better bet that its quarterback plays all seventeen games. If Burrow is available for a full season, the Bengals are almost certainly a playoff team. The Chiefs are our first team out at 10-7, which remains the call in this piece we’d most expect to be wrong. Dallas is the NFC’s first team out at 9-8.

For comparison, Clay’s model produces: AFC: Ravens, Broncos, Bills, Texans, Bengals, Patriots, Chiefs. NFC: Rams, Lions, Eagles, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers.

Breakout Watch: Five Names to Know

• Abdul Carter, EDGE, Giants. Seventy-two pressures as a rookie — including a league-best 48 in under 2.5 seconds — and only four sacks. Clay projects 7.9 this year. The finishing will come.
• Mike Green, EDGE, Ravens. Three and a half sacks as a rookie, and now gets to attack opposite of Hendrickson in an attacking scheme.
• Travis Hunter, CB, Jaguars. Full-time corner, part-time offensive weapon, on a defense that was first in EPA per play down the stretch. Clay projects him as the top fantasy corner in football.
• Cedric Gray, LB, Titans. Fifth in the NFL with 160 tackles as a first-time starter, now the centerpiece of a Saleh-Bradley zone scheme.
• Colston Loveland, TE, Bears. The 2025 first-rounder was good enough as a rookie to cut Cole Kmet from 73 catches in 2023 to 30 last season. Now DJ Moore’s targets are in Buffalo, Luther Burden III missed the preseason, and Clay projects Loveland for 118 targets and 898 yards — fourth among all tight ends. Ben Johnson built his Detroit offenses around tight end usage, and this is the first year he has the personnel to do it in Chicago.

Five Biggest Storylines Entering Week 1

1. The Rams are a superteam, and the NFL hasn’t had one of these in a while. Los Angeles carries an implied 12.5 percent championship probability after adjusting for the vig, more than five points clear of the Bills and Ravens. Les Snead traded Jared Verse and three picks for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, traded for Trent McDuffie, signed Jaylen Watson, extended Stafford, and has Aaron Donald working out in the building. Clay’s model has them first in scoring offense and first in scoring defense. Historically, teams that separate this dramatically before September have a mixed record of finishing the job — and the Super Bowl is at SoFi. The Ty Simpson pick at No. 13 will read as foresight or hubris depending entirely on February.

2. A coaching carousel that reshaped the league’s power structure. John Harbaugh is with the Giants after 18 seasons in Baltimore. Mike Tomlin is out in Pittsburgh after 20. Sean McDermott was fired in Buffalo, Raheem Morris in Atlanta. Jesse Minter, Joe Brady, Mike McCarthy, Todd Monken, Kevin Stefanski, Robert Saleh, Klint Kubiak, Mike LaFleur and Jeff Hafley are all running teams for the first time in their current chairs. Mike McDaniel is calling plays for the Chargers instead of running the Dolphins. Sean Payton handed play-calling to Davis Webb. Twenty-two teams — more than two-thirds of the league — will open the season with a new offensive coordinator. The AFC North alone has three new head coaches, two of them first-timers.

3. The skill-position market has fully broken. Jaxon Smith-Njigba reset the receiver market at $42.15 million per year. Zay Flowers got $35 million on two 1,000-yard seasons. Chris Olave signed for up to $132 million without a Pro Bowl. There are now a dozen receivers making at least $30 million annually and exactly one offensive tackle. And after years of being told they don’t matter, Bijan Robinson (nearly $67 million), Jonathan Taylor (two years, $44 million) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($22.5 million per year) all cashed in inside a two-week window. Puka Nacua’s next deal may reset everything again.

4. Quarterback second chances, everywhere you look. Kyler Murray beat out J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota. Rodgers is back in Pittsburgh at 42 for a final season. Cousins is holding the seat for Mendoza in Las Vegas. Tagovailoa, Penix and Cooper Rush are sorting it out in Atlanta. Watson, Sanders, Gabriel and Green are sorting it out in Cleveland. Malik Willis gets his first Week 1 start in Miami. Jacoby Brissett is bridging to Carson Beck in Arizona. Geno Smith is back where he started, in New York. A third of the league has organized its season around a player somebody else gave up on.

5. The AFC hierarchy is genuinely open — and Kansas City isn’t at the top of it. The Chiefs enter ninth in FPI, their worst preseason ranking since 2018, and Clay has them as the No. 7 seed. Baltimore, Buffalo, Denver, Houston, New England and now the Chargers all have credible paths to the top seed. Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL behind a roster that is objectively less talented than a year ago. For the first time since he took over, the road to the Super Bowl does not obviously run through Arrowhead. Our answer is that it runs through Orchard Park, with Baltimore close enough behind that a single January afternoon decides it.

The post 2026 NFL Preview: Power Rankings, Win Totals, and Every Team’s Defining Question appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Let’s not waste any more time. My last post was Ravens-specific, but this time I wanted to share my Top 50 Big Board and a full first round mock complete with trades. Let’s get after it!

My 2026 NFL Draft Top 50 Big Board

1. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
2. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
3. Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
4. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
5. Sonny Styles, LB, LSU
6. Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
7. Rueben Bain Jr, DE, Miami
8. David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
9. Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State
10. Peter Woods, DL, Clemson
11. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
12. Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
13. Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech
14. KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
15. Keonte Scott, DB, Miami
16. CJ Allen, LB, Georgia
17. Vega Ioane, G, Penn State
18. Jermod McCoy, DB, Tennessee
19. Kenyod Sadiq, TE, Oregon
20. Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
21. Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
22. Makai Lemon, WR, USC
23. Dilllon Thieneman, S, Oregon
24. Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
25. Keith Abney II, DB, Arizona State
26. Kedrick Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
27. Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State
28. Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
29. Avieon Terrell, DB, Clemson
30. Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami
31. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
32. Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State
33. Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M
34. Emmanuel Pregnon, G, Oregon
35. Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
36. D’Angelo Ponds, CB, Indiana
37. Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
38. Derrick Moore, DE, Michigan
39. Gennings Dunker, G, Iowa
40. Omar Cooper, WR, Indiana
41. Caleb Banks, DT, Florida
42. Julian Neal, CB, Arkansas
43. Kamari Ramsey, S, USC
44. Chris Brazzell, WR, Tennessee
45. Zachariah Branch, WR, Georgia
46. Keylan Rutledge, G, Georgia Tech
47. Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame
48. Skyler Bell, WR, UConn
49. R. Mason Thomas, DE, FSU
50. Chris Bell, WR, Louisville

As you can see, this list is wide receiver, offensive line, and edge defender-heavy. Not great if you need a quarterback, but we knew that. I’ll also say the offensive line and safety positions are probably the deepest in my opinion, which is good news for teams like Baltimore, New York (Jets and Giants), Cleveland, San Francisco, and Miami.

Speaking of other teams, here is my final 2026 NFL Mock Draft:

1. (Raiders) Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. TRADE (Browns from Jets) Jeremiah Love, RB, Notre Dame

· Cleveland sends Nos. 6, 24, and 39 overall to New York for Nos. 2 and 44 overall

3. (Cardinals) Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

4. (Titans) Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

5. (Giants) Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

6. (Jets, from Browns) Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

7. (Commanders) Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State

8. (Saints) David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech

9. (Chiefs) Rueben Bain, Jr., IDL, Miami (FL)

10. (Bengals) Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

11. (Dolphins) Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

12. (Cowboys) Francis Mauigoa, OL, Miami (FL)

13. (Rams) Makai Lemon, WR, Southern Cal

14. (Ravens) Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

15. (Buccaneers) Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State

16. (Jets) Peter Woods, IDL, Clemson

17. (Lions) Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

18. (Vikings) Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

19. (Panthers) KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

20. (Cowboys) Jacob Rodriguez, ILB, Texas Tech

21. TRADE (Bears from Steelers) Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

· Chicago sends Nos. 25, 89, and 129 overall to Pittsburgh for Nos. 21 and 99 overall

22. (Chargers) Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

23. (Eagles) Denzel Boston, WR, Washington

24. (Jets from Browns via Jaguars) Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn

25. (Steelers from Bears) Omar Cooper, Jr., WR, Indiana

26. (Bills) Chris Brazzell II, WR, Tennessee

27. (49ers) Emmanuel Pregnon, OG, Oregon

28. (Texans) Keylan Rutledge, OG, Georgia Tech

29. TRADE (Dolphins from Chiefs) Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

· Miami sends Nos. 29 and 148 overall to Kansas City for Nos. 30 and 130 overall

30. (Chiefs from Dolphins) Chris Bell, WR, Louisville

31. (Patriots) Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

32. (Seahawks) Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame

What are your thoughts? Let us know!

Can’t wait.

The post 2026 NFL Draft Top 50 Big Board and Final First Round Mock appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The devil or the raven is in the details, a new matte black helmet, and black talon stripes are nice touches but overall, the shirts and pants don’t look that different from the changes they made almost twenty-seven seasons ago. I have a feeling that with all eyes on Eric DeCosta to have a superb draft class he will lean more on the team’s history for the kind players that they will add this week, although I wouldn’t mind a few more risks.

Best Player Available vs. Biggest Needs

For years, Baltimore has trusted their board and often let the draft come to them. It’s a philosophy that has served them well over the years, but the question isn’t if it works, it’s is that that works now for this draft.

DeCosta has stated that he feels that the talent level falls off midway through Round One, so that could make Baltimore’s pick a sweet spot to land a blue-chip prospect at number 14.

Most experts and mocks are predicting the team will prioritize interior lineman or pass catchers for Lamar Jackson. While Connor Lew (Auburn) is the top-rated Center, many believe that the team will go instead with Vega Ioane the huge blocker from Penn State, or Spencer Fano (Utah), a versatile blocker who could fill multiple roles up front.

There have also been some sites that have linked offensive weapons like Makai Lemon (USC) who could be paired with Zay Flowers or Tight End Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)who has 4.39 speed and would help solidify a depleted Tight End room with the losses of Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar.

Of course, there is always the possibility of trading back to gather more draft capital but with Baltimore holding eleven picks in the draft I don’t think that seems likely.

I think the Ravens stay on brand here and select Vega Ioane who seems to be the most frequent projection, has a bit of a mean streak and has the most plug and play potential available. Sometimes the best player out there fits a glaring need, as well.

Building Around Lamar – What’s missing?

The structure around the two-time MVP has been the focus and will continue to be so in Baltimore if they are to return the playoffs and make a run.

The team still has holes on the Offensive line especially with the departure of Tyler Linderbaum. A possible replacement could be Logan Jones, a Rimington trophy winner who attended the same school also is a possibility to play right away.

With Rashod Batman’s inconsistency issues returning and the need for more depth aside from Devontez Walker Baltimore could look to add to the receiving corps. The second and third rounds could offer some help there with Germie Bernard (Alabama) being a popular selection with 4.48 speed as well as Tai Felton (Maryland) who also could be a dangerous alternative. The Ravens also could find their Tight End here too. Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt) has had a formal combine with the team and is a favorite of Mel Kiper, while Mason Taylor (LSU) may also be a possibility.

Plenty of Needs

With 11 picks, DeCosta is expected to be aggressive and with multiple fifth round picks at his disposal he should be. He could look to package picks to trade up if one of the Ravens main targets is in danger of being snapped up.

I mentioned earlier about the strategy of best player against need. I feel like the Ravens will lean more into needs due to so many players leaving due to free agency. Having cost-controlled talent that can help you will be important in 2026.

I expect during the first several rounds for Baltimore that they reinvest in both lines. It was a sign of weakness last season when it came to protecting Lamar and being able to get penetration on the defensive side. Jesse Minter’s defense relies on getting pressure with the interior and being able to drop the rest into coverage and doesn’t blitz much.

Here’s how I see it:

First Round (14) -Vega Ioane (OG) (Penn State) – He did not allow a single sack in 2025 and is a mauler type that reasserts a physical presence along the line.

Second Round (45) – Caleb Banks (DT) (Florida) – 6’6” Game wrecker with a quick first step and a ton of potential.

Third Round (80) – Connor Lew (IOL) (Auburn) – The Ravens have a history of drafting Centers and he’s the best option available there.

Fourth Round (115) – Chris McClellan (DL) (Missouri) – Added depth piece to a rebuilding Defensive Line.

That’s much of the early draft capital being devoted to the lines. In the latter rounds, there is a need for coverage at Running Back, Corner, and a starting Punter. Jeff Yurk was an All-American Punter at Elon and is a rising prospect that the Ravens may draft in the seventh round to eliminate a bidding war with other teams such as Minnesota. Yurk had a private workout with Baltimore and the interest in him in reported to be significant.

The post Third And Short: Draft Week Edition appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.