Jacksonville opened Week 9 by beating Baltimore 33-10 on Thursday, the Ravens’ fourth straight loss, and Buffalo closed it Monday by holding Minnesota to 178 yards in a 23-6 win. In between, Green Bay put 45 points on New England, the Giants won in Philadelphia for the first time in more than a decade, Houston sacked Justin Herbert eight times, and the Chargers fell to 0-8. The Eagles have lost seven straight, and Jalen Hurts is out for the season.

Tuesday’s trade deadline sent Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, Keenan Allen to San Francisco and Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston. Jacksonville added Jessie Bates III, Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux, and Baltimore has Jacoby Brissett for Monday night.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 9 Recap

Lines are the ones we published last week.

Jaguars 33, Ravens 10 (Thursday)

Box score · Our review · Line: Jaguars -8.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

What decided it: The quarterback situation, as expected. Fagnano threw for 60 yards on 11-of-19 passing with two second-half interceptions, so Baltimore’s 172 rushing yards on 34 carries went nowhere. Trevor Lawrence threw for 242 yards and a touchdown without being sacked, and Cam Little made all four field goal tries. Baltimore has now lost four straight and fell to 4-5. Kyle Hamilton left with a hip injury.

Bengals 34, Falcons 17 (Madrid)

Box score · Line: Bengals -3, 52.5 · Our pick: Bengals

Expected: Whether Michael Penix Jr.’s four interceptions in the rain were a one-off (Atlanta has been first in points per game since Week 3, per ESPN), and Cincinnati’s defense, 15th in DVOA, with DJ Turner II’s ankle.

What decided it: Cincinnati’s offense, which scored on every first-half possession. Joe Burrow completed 24 of 29 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a fourth. Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 155 yards, 142 of them in the first half, and Tee Higgins caught two touchdowns. Penix’s turnover problem mostly didn’t carry over: he threw one interception, late, and ran for a career-high 50 yards. But he averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt (Marc Raimondi, ESPN). Bijan Robinson ran for 100 yards, 42 of them on the opening drive. Cincinnati never sacked Penix, but its defense held after Atlanta’s 10 first-quarter points. The Bengals have won four straight, scoring 30 or more in each.

Saints 23, Browns 22 (OT)

Box score · Line: Saints -2.5, 43.5 · Our pick: Browns

Expected: We picked against the line and the model, with low confidence. The case was Cleveland’s defensive line, fourth on our list, against a Saints line 18th, set against a Browns offensive line that ranks last and New Orleans coming off its bye.

What decided it: Cleveland’s offensive line, not its defensive front. The Saints sacked Shedeur Sanders five times, two of them by Carl Granderson. Two sacks came on red-zone trips that ended in field goals (Ringer Staff). In his first start of the season, Sanders still threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns, including a 64-yard score to KC Concepcion Jr. that put Cleveland ahead with 5:33 left. Audric Estime’s 2-yard run with 58 seconds left put New Orleans back in front, and Andre Szmyt’s 51-yard field goal forced overtime. Tyler Shough hit Juwan Johnson for a 15-yard touchdown on the first overtime possession. Harold Fannin Jr. answered with a 39-yard catch-and-run with a minute left. Todd Monken went for two, and Sanders, flushed right by Granderson, threw incomplete. Maliek Collins was inactive.

Cowboys 27, Colts 23

Box score · Line: Cowboys -6, 51.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: The Colts after the Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner trades and Daniel Jones’ benching; a Dallas defense last in EPA per play (Bill Barnwell); and the Colts’ quarterback and Jonathan Taylor’s status. George Pickens and Joey Porter Jr. were inactive for Dallas.

What decided it: Dallas’ passing game, and just enough of it to survive 14 penalties for 153 yards. Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns, CeeDee Lamb caught 10 passes for 195 yards, and Javonte Williams ran for 101. Dallas outgained Indianapolis 508 yards to 271, the first time all season the Cowboys held an opponent under 300 (CBS). But two lost fumbles and the flags kept the Colts close. Spencer Shrader’s field goals from 59 and 50 yards put Indianapolis up 23-20 with 1:37 left. Prescott hit Ryan Flournoy for 46 yards, and Shane Steichen let Williams score from the 1 to get the ball back. Caleb Downs then intercepted Daniel Jones with 35 seconds left. Jones started and threw for 180 yards. Jonathan Taylor ran 13 times for 46 yards and lost a fumble.

Broncos 26, Panthers 21

Box score · Line: Broncos -3, 43.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: Denver’s defensive line, third on our list, against a Carolina offensive line 26th and without Taylor Moton and Damien Lewis.

What decided it: Denver’s front, at the end. Bryce Young threw for 276 yards and three touchdowns against a secondary missing both starting safeties. Then, with 1:24 left, Nik Bonitto beat left tackle Rasheed Walker to the outside and strip-sacked him; Bonitto recovered the fumble. Denver sacked Young three times in all. The other turn came at the Denver 1 late in the third quarter. Sean Payton’s challenge was ruled to have come before the next snap, and review turned an incompletion into Devon Key’s interception. Carolina, without its top four cornerbacks, had two practice-squad call-ups flagged for five pass interference penalties (AP). Bo Nix threw two touchdowns. Denver has won five straight and 16 straight one-score games, and it goes into its bye at 7-2.

Lions 19, Dolphins 9

Box score · Line: Lions -7, 50.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: Detroit’s defensive injuries (Jack Campbell, Brian Branch, DJ Wonnum, D.J. Reed) and Miami’s run game without Kadyn Proctor.

What decided it: Detroit’s defense, without Jack Campbell, D.J. Reed or DJ Wonnum. Malik Willis completed 13 of 25 passes for 128 yards with an interception and was sacked three times, twice by Derrick Moore (CBS); he was playing through a groin injury. Miami went 0 for 3 in the red zone, and its only play over 20 yards was a fake punt (Bill Barnwell, ESPN). Proctor played, and Miami still ran for fewer than 80 yards for the second straight game (Marcel Louis-Jacques, ESPN). Detroit’s offense was ordinary. Jared Goff was sacked three times in the first half and threw for 170 yards. Jake Bates kicked four field goals around Jahmyr Gibbs’ fourth-down touchdown run.

Rams 20, Commanders 13

Box score · Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: The Rams’ offensive line, third on our list, against a Washington front without Daron Payne, and Matthew Stafford under 225 yards in three straight games.

What decided it: Myles Garrett and Puka Nacua. In his first game since Week 1, Garrett had three of the Rams’ four sacks: a strip-sack that set up a field goal before halftime and two in the fourth quarter. Nacua caught 14 of the 19 passes thrown his way for 150 yards, including the tiebreaking 7-yard touchdown early in the fourth. The Rams’ other receivers caught four passes for 36 yards (Sarah Barshop, ESPN). Washington scored once in the final 44 minutes. Matthew Stafford threw for 219 yards with an interception, his fourth straight game under 225, and the Rams went 3 for 14 on third down. Nacua hurt his knee and is likely headed to injured reserve with MCL and PCL sprains and turf toe (CBS).

Giants 19, Eagles 11

Box score · Line: Giants -3.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: We picked the Giants with low confidence. J.J. McCarthy was making his second start, after a bye and on the road, against an Eagles team that had allowed 100-plus rushing yards in every game (Fox) and lost six straight.

What decided it: The Giants’ pass rush. New York sacked Joe Milton, who started in place of the benched Tanner McKee, seven times. Rookie Arvell Reese had three of the sacks, along with a forced fumble and 12 tackles (Jordan Raanan, ESPN). Milton completed 18 of 34 passes for 169 yards. McCarthy left with a hip injury in the third quarter with the Giants down 8-6. Jameis Winston threw the go-ahead 5-yard touchdown to Isaiah Likely, and McCarthy came back for the last play of the quarter. Dominic Zvada kicked four field goals. It was the Giants’ first win in Philadelphia in more than a decade and the Eagles’ seventh straight loss.

Chiefs 35, Jets 12

Box score · Line: Chiefs -9.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Chiefs

Expected: Kansas City’s run game (Kenneth Walker III at 3.0 yards a carry over two losses, per CBS) against a Jets run defense 31st since Week 3 (ESPN), and Braelon Allen.

What decided it: The run game came back. Kenneth Walker III ran for 102 yards and a touchdown and caught two touchdown passes, and Kansas City ran for 163 yards on 32 carries. The Chiefs came in with nine sacks all season and sacked Geno Smith five times: two each for Chris Jones and George Karlaftis and one for Ashton Gillotte. The Jets got four Jason Sanders field goals and nothing else, finishing with 229 yards and getting shut out in the second half. Patrick Mahomes threw for 242 yards after David Bailey’s strip-sack bent his right elbow before halftime; he’ll have more testing. Harrison Butker missed from 56 yards and then, after a penalty, from 51.

Texans 44, Chargers 22

Box score · Line: Texans -4.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Texans

Expected: The Chargers had gone 27 straight drives without a touchdown behind our 30th-ranked offensive line, and they faced Houston’s fifth-ranked defensive line, coming off a bye.

What decided it: Exactly that. Houston sacked Justin Herbert a career-high eight times, with two each from Will Anderson Jr. and Jadeveon Clowney (CBS). The Chargers’ drought reached 37 drives before Quentin Johnston’s 58-yard catch in the fourth quarter. C.J. Stroud had been sick all week and threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns, two of them 63-yarders to Tank Dell and Kayshon Boutte. Herbert left late with a finger injury. The Chargers are 0-8.

Seahawks 17, Cardinals 3

Box score · Line: Seahawks -11.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Seahawks

Expected: Arizona’s health (Gardner Minshew expected to start, per Pete Prisco; Jeremiyah Love’s ankle; Bam Knight’s concussion) and Seattle’s run game behind Quenton Nelson, who led the way for 81 yards Monday.

What decided it: Seattle’s defense. Arizona reached the red zone twice and got three points, failing on fourth-and-goal from the 2. Minshew completed 21 of 30 passes for 166 yards and was sacked three times. Love was on injured reserve and Knight was inactive. Sam Darnold was out with a quad injury and a cracked rib, and Drew Lock played through elbow and oblique injuries to complete 19 of 28 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown. Nelson was inactive, along with left tackle Charles Cross, and Seattle still ran for more than 100 yards, led by Zach Charbonnet (CBS). AJ Barner scored on a run and a catch.

Packers 45, Patriots 27

Box score · Line: Patriots -3, 46.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: Both New England lines, in our top 8, against a Green Bay offensive line 31st and the league’s worst run game; Micah Parsons practicing (Pete Prisco); and A.J. Brown’s knee.

What decided it: Green Bay’s passing game and four New England turnovers. Jordan Love threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another. Christian Watson (171 yards) and Matthew Golden (164) both topped 150, much of it against Christian Gonzalez. The league’s worst run game ran for 129 yards, 68 of them by Kaleb Johnson. Drake Maye threw three first-half interceptions, two of which set up touchdowns, and Green Bay scored 21 points off the four turnovers. Both New England lines were in our top 8, and neither showed it; Karl Brooks had two sacks beating the Patriots’ guards (Bill Barnwell, ESPN). A.J. Brown was inactive. Carlton Davis III, Ben Brown, Will Campbell, Brenden Schooler and Rhamondre Stevenson all left hurt.

49ers 38, Raiders 17

Box score · Line: 49ers -10, 51.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: DeForest Buckner’s first game back, against a Raiders defense that had allowed 30-plus points five straight weeks (ESPN) and ranks 31st on our defensive line list.

What decided it: Five San Francisco takeaways in the second half. The first was Jaden Dugger’s interception return for a touchdown on the first play of the third quarter. Kirk Cousins threw three second-half interceptions, and the Raiders lost two fumbles, one by Michael Mayer at the goal line. Las Vegas allowed 30 or more for a sixth straight game, tying an NFL record (AP), and gave up 190 rushing yards (Ryan McFadden, ESPN). Brock Purdy threw two touchdowns and ran for one, and Christian McCaffrey scored twice. Nick Bosa returned. Rookie defensive tackle Gracen Halton broke his ankle and is out for the season.

Bears 27, Buccaneers 24

Box score · Line: Bears -4.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: Tampa Bay’s run game (582 yards in two weeks) against a Chicago front 26th in run stop win rate and without Grady Jarrett.

What decided it: Turnovers, both ways. Chicago led 14-0 after a quarter, then gave the ball away five times. Caleb Williams threw four interceptions, two of them throwaways under interior pressure (Ringer Staff), and Luther Burden III’s fumble set up Tampa Bay’s tying touchdown and two-point conversion with 2:51 left. The Bucs got only a field goal and that touchdown out of the five takeaways. Jaylon Johnson’s 67-yard interception return was the difference. Williams then hit Colston Loveland for 38 yards to set up Cairo Santos’ 38-yard field goal as time expired. Tampa Bay’s run game had 582 yards over its previous two games but managed 126 against a Chicago front that added Jeffery Simmons (one sack). Bucky Irving had 97 yards and two touchdowns.

Bills 23, Vikings 6 (Monday)

Box score · Line: Bills -3.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Bills

Expected: Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense, second on our defensive line list, against Josh Allen, and an offense under Kyler Murray that ranked 28th in points per drive (Ringer Staff). Murray was ruled out with a hamstring injury, and Carson Wentz started.

What decided it: Minnesota’s offense, or what was left of it. Wentz completed 8 of 25 passes for 81 yards with two interceptions and lost a fumble on a backward pass, and Max Brosmer replaced him in the fourth quarter. The Vikings finished with 178 yards and ran the ball 12 times. Their defense did its part: it sacked Allen four times, and Byron Murphy returned an interception deep into Buffalo territory. But Buffalo held the ball for 42:32. James Cook carried 31 times for 107 yards and a late touchdown, Allen hit Keleki Latu for a 25-yard touchdown just before halftime, and Tyler Bass kicked three field goals. Buffalo did it without left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson.

Power Rankings

Draft order for Chris to set. The outside columns are final.

DVOA is FTN’s total through Week 9. ESPN is its Week 10 power panel, NFL.com is Nick Shook’s Week 10 rankings, and Prisco is Pete Prisco’s (CBS Sports) Week 10 list.

1. 49ers (1): Five takeaways in the second half at Las Vegas, and still first on our offensive line list. Keenan Allen arrives for a thin receiver room.

2. Bills (2): Held the ball for 42:32 in Minnesota without their left tackle and left guard. ESPN and Prisco have them first.

3. Jaguars (3): Beat Baltimore by 23 and lead FTN’s DVOA. The deadline brought Jessie Bates III, Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux.

4. Bears (5): Survived five turnovers against Tampa Bay on Jaylon Johnson’s pick-six and Cairo Santos’ last-second field goal. They pass Denver on a close call; both are 7-2.

5. Broncos (4): Five straight wins and 16 straight in one-score games, with our third-ranked defensive line. Bye this week.

6. Bengals (8): Four straight wins, 30 or more points in each, and third in DVOA. Pittsburgh comes to town Sunday night.

7. Chiefs (6): The run game came back against the Jets, but Patrick Mahomes’ right elbow needs more testing. One elite line (offense, fourth) and one weak (defense, 25th), so they’re ranked on results.

8. Steelers (10): Up two on their bye, with our sixth-ranked defensive line and sixth in DVOA.

9. Lions (11): Beat Miami without three defensive starters and added Andre Cisco. Patriots in Munich next.

10. Vikings (7): Down three after 178 yards in Buffalo with Carson Wentz. Their defensive line is second on our list, and Kirk Cousins is on the way.

11. Seahawks (12): Held Arizona to three points without Sam Darnold, and their defensive line is first on our list.

12. Packers (15): Up three after 45 points in New England. Both their lines are in our bottom 12 (offense 31st, defense 23rd), which by our rule would move them down; results win this week, and the lines keep them behind the 6-2 teams.

13. Rams (13): Myles Garrett had three sacks in his return, but Puka Nacua is headed to injured reserve and Matthew Stafford has gone four straight games under 225 yards.

14. Patriots (9): Down five after four turnovers against Green Bay. Both lines are still in our top 8, which by our rule moves a team up, but Will Campbell and Ben Brown left hurt, and the results come first this week.

15. Buccaneers (14): Five takeaways in Chicago and a loss anyway. Seventh in DVOA, on bye this week.

16. Giants (17): Seven sacks and their first win in Philadelphia in more than a decade. J.J. McCarthy’s hip is the question for Thursday.

17. Texans (22): Up five after eight sacks and C.J. Stroud’s five touchdowns against the Chargers. Our fifth-ranked defensive line, now with Marvin Harrison Jr. on offense.

18. Browns (16): Lost in overtime in New Orleans after giving up five sacks. Last on our offensive line list and fourth on our defensive list, so they’re ranked on results.

19. Panthers (18): Bryce Young threw three touchdowns in Denver, but the secondary is down to its backups.

20. Falcons (19): Never caught up in Madrid, and they traded Jessie Bates III to Jacksonville.

21. Cowboys (24): Up three on Dak Prescott’s 335 yards and CeeDee Lamb’s 195, despite 14 penalties. Their defensive line is last on our list.

22. Raiders (21): Allowed 30 or more for a sixth straight game, tying an NFL record, then traded Kirk Cousins.

23. Ravens (20): Down three after their fourth straight loss. Jacoby Brissett starts Monday against the Chargers.

24. Saints (26): Beat Cleveland in overtime behind five sacks.

25. Cardinals (23): Three points in Seattle, and Gardner Minshew is likely out for the season. Rookie Carson Beck starts.

26. Commanders (25): Scored once in the last 44 minutes against the Rams. At the Giants on Thursday.

27. Jets (27): 229 yards and no second-half points in Kansas City.

28. Eagles (28): Seven straight losses, seven sacks allowed Sunday, and no Jalen Hurts for the rest of the season. Bye this week.

29. Colts (29): Took Dallas to the final minute after trading Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner and Keenan Allen.

30. Dolphins (30): Zero for 3 in the red zone in Detroit, and fewer than 80 rushing yards for a second straight game.

31. Titans (31): On bye, and they sent Amani Hooker to Buffalo at the deadline.

32. Chargers (32): 0-8, eight sacks allowed in Houston, and 37 straight drives without a touchdown before Quentin Johnston’s catch.

Offensive Lines

Every line is judged on the season against the defenses it has faced, with injuries applied on top. Win rates don’t capture penalties. ESPN’s team win rates hadn’t been updated for Week 9 when we published, so the win-rate columns in both line lists run through Week 8; the sack and rushing columns include Week 9.

• Rams (2): They moved past Buffalo on the season sack rate: 3.3%, tied with the 49ers and Raiders for the best in the league and 2.5 points under what their opponents allow. They also ran for 124 yards at Washington.
• Bills (3): They slipped a spot after taking four sacks at Minnesota without left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson. They still ran 44 times for 134 yards and held the ball for 42:32.
• Falcons (8): They’re in for the Steelers, who drop to ninth on their bye. Atlanta’s 4.8 yards per carry is 0.7 better than its opponents allow.
• Packers (31) and Browns (32): Still the bottom two. Green Bay ran for 129 yards at New England, but it ranks last in pass block win rate and averages 3.0 yards a carry. Cleveland gave up five more sacks at New Orleans and is at 11.8% for the season.
• Seahawks (20): They played without left tackle Charles Cross and Quenton Nelson. Ben Solak (ESPN) reports Nelson had a “minor procedure” on his knee and will miss a few weeks.
• First out: Steelers, Bengals, Colts.

Defensive Lines

• Buccaneers (7): They’re in, with the league’s best defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay held Chicago to 72 rushing yards and allows 0.6 yards per carry less than its opponents gain.
• Chargers (13): Out from seventh. They had one sack of C.J. Stroud and allowed 104 rushing yards to Houston.
• Browns (4): Held, with Maliek Collins out again. New Orleans ran for 160 yards.
• Seahawks (1): Held Arizona to 50 rushing yards and sacked Gardner Minshew three times.
• Jaguars (12): Moved up by hand from 24th on the numbers. Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux, both added at the deadline, go at the line’s weak spot: it’s last in run stop win rate, but third in defensive DVOA and fifth in pass rush win rate.
• 49ers (9) and Bears (15): Moved up by hand from 14th and 21st on the numbers. DeForest Buckner and Nick Bosa are both back in San Francisco, which allows 0.8 yards per carry less than its opponents gain. Jeffery Simmons has two games in Chicago, which is still without Grady Jarrett.
• First out: 49ers, Falcons, Ravens.

Moved by hand for players added or returned; the figures are as measured.

Win Totals

Projected final records. They add up to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, counted in both records, with 135 wins and the tie banked through Week 9.

• AFC seeds: Buffalo and Jacksonville for the top seed, Denver third and the AFC North winner fourth. Wild cards: the AFC North runner-up, Kansas City and New England. First out: Houston and Cleveland.
• NFC seeds: San Francisco, Chicago, the Giants and the NFC South winner. Wild cards: Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay. First out: Seattle and the Rams.
• Kansas City reversal: The first team out in August, the Chiefs are now 11-6, a game behind Denver and a wild card.
• Ties not projected: Buffalo and Jacksonville for the AFC top seed; Cincinnati and Pittsburgh (AFC North); Carolina and Tampa Bay (NFC South); Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay for second in the NFC North; Seattle and the Rams.
• What moved: Up one each, Bills, Jaguars, Broncos, Dolphins, Giants, Packers, Saints and Rams. Down one each, Patriots, Browns, Ravens, Raiders, Chargers, Eagles, Vikings and Cardinals.
• Ravens: 7-10 assumes Jacoby Brissett starts until Lamar Jackson’s return, which is no earlier than Dec. 13.
• Calls most likely to move after Week 10: Patriots 9-8 vs. Lions 11-6 (Munich); Vikings 11-6 at Packers 11-6; Steelers 11-6 at Bengals 11-6; Chiefs 11-6 at Falcons 7-10; Texans 8-9 at Browns 8-9; Chargers 2-15 at Ravens 7-10; Panthers 8-9 at Saints 7-10.

Week 10 Preview

Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay are on bye.

Commanders at Giants (Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video)

Line: Giants -2.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Giants 50.8%

Key to the Game: J.J. McCarthy’s hip and the Giants’ pass rush. McCarthy left Sunday’s win in Philadelphia with a hip injury and came back only for the last play of the third quarter, and now he has a short week. New York sacked Joe Milton seven times, three by rookie Arvell Reese, and gets a Washington line that’s 21st on our list and may be without Lucas Patrick (concussion). These teams tied in their first meeting.

Our Pick: Giants. Low confidence: ESPN’s model has it at a coin flip, and McCarthy’s hip could swing it.

Patriots vs. Lions (Munich, 9:30 a.m., Fox)

Line: Lions -2.5, 51.5 · ESPN: Lions 52.9%

Key to the Game: Who’s left on New England’s offensive line. Will Campbell and Ben Brown both left Sunday’s loss to Green Bay hurt, along with Carlton Davis III and Rhamondre Stevenson, and the line that’s fifth on our list was built with them. Detroit’s defense held Miami to nine points without Jack Campbell, D.J. Reed or DJ Wonnum, and it added safety Andre Cisco at the deadline. Drake Maye threw three first-half interceptions Sunday.

Our Pick: Lions.

Chiefs at Falcons (1:00, CBS)

Line: Chiefs -3.5, 45.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 76.3%

Key to the Game: Patrick Mahomes’ right elbow. He played through David Bailey’s hit Sunday and threw for 242 yards, but he’s having more testing, and Harrison Butker’s job is uncertain after two misses. Atlanta’s offensive line is eighth on our list against a Kansas City front that’s 25th, though the Chiefs sacked Geno Smith five times. The Falcons traded safety Jessie Bates III to Jacksonville at the deadline.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Texans at Browns (1:00, Fox)

Line: Texans -4.5, 39.5 · ESPN: Texans 78.6%

Key to the Game: Two mismatches, one each way. Houston’s defensive line, fifth on our list, sacked Justin Herbert eight times Sunday, and Cleveland’s offensive line is last after giving up five sacks in New Orleans. Cleveland’s front is fourth, against a Houston line that’s 27th. Deshaun Watson is expected back from his concussion, and the Texans added Marvin Harrison Jr. at the deadline.

Our Pick: Texans.

Vikings at Packers (1:00, Fox)

Line: Packers -3.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Packers 69.7%

Key to the Game: Minnesota’s quarterback. Kyler Murray missed Monday’s loss in Buffalo with a hamstring injury, Carson Wentz completed 8 of 25 passes, and the Vikings traded for Kirk Cousins at the deadline. Minnesota’s defensive line, second on our list, sacked Josh Allen four times and now gets a Green Bay line that’s 31st. Jordan Love threw for 372 yards against New England anyway.

Our Pick: Packers. Low confidence: Minnesota’s front is the biggest edge on the field, and a healthy Murray would change our read.

Jaguars at Titans (1:00, Fox)

Line: Jaguars -10, 46.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 84.0%

Key to the Game: How fast Jacksonville’s deadline additions fit. The Jaguars added Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux to a defensive line we’ve moved up to 12th by hand for those trades, after it fell to 24th on the numbers without DaVon Hamilton, and Jessie Bates III to a secondary that lost Eric Murray for the season. Tennessee is 1-7 and 23rd on our offensive line list.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Dolphins at Colts (1:00, CBS)

Line: Colts -2.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Colts 71.9%

Key to the Game: Whether Miami can run on an Indianapolis front that’s 30th on our list. The Dolphins have run for fewer than 80 yards in two straight games, and Malik Willis is playing through a groin injury. The Colts traded Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner and Keenan Allen and are down to five healthy receivers.

Our Pick: Colts.

Panthers at Saints (1:00, Fox)

Line: Saints -1.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Saints 50.0%

Key to the Game: Carolina’s secondary. The Panthers played Denver without their top four cornerbacks or either starting safety and were flagged for five pass interference penalties. New Orleans sacked Shedeur Sanders five times and gets a Carolina line that’s 25th on our list, but Erik McCoy (biceps) is a question for the Saints’ line.

Our Pick: Saints. Low confidence: ESPN’s model has it at exactly 50%, and we’re leaning on Carolina’s injuries in the secondary.

Bills at Jets (1:00, CBS)

Line: Bills -7.5, 50.5 · ESPN: Bills 80.0%

Key to the Game: Buffalo’s pass defense. The Bills allow the fourth-most passing yards per game (CBS), which is why they traded for Amani Hooker. The Jets managed 229 yards in Kansas City, and Garrett Wilson (concussion) missed that game. Buffalo beat Minnesota without Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson by keeping the ball for more than 42 minutes.

Our Pick: Bills.

Seahawks at Raiders (4:05, CBS)

Line: Seahawks -6, 40.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 60.3%

Key to the Game: Las Vegas’ quarterback. The Raiders traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota at the deadline and hadn’t named a starter when we published. Seattle’s defensive line is first on our list, and the Raiders have allowed 30 or more in six straight games. Drew Lock starts again with Sam Darnold ruled out, and Quenton Nelson is out a few weeks after a minor knee procedure.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Rams at Cardinals (4:05, CBS)

Line: Rams -9.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Rams 78.7%

Key to the Game: The Rams’ passing game without Puka Nacua, who’s headed to injured reserve. He caught 14 passes Sunday; the Rams’ other receivers caught four. Arizona starts rookie Carson Beck with Gardner Minshew likely out for the season, and Michael Wilson is out for the year too. Myles Garrett had three sacks in his return.

Our Pick: Rams.

49ers at Cowboys (4:25, Fox)

Line: 49ers -3.5, 55.5 · ESPN: 49ers 63.5%

Key to the Game: San Francisco’s offensive line, first on our list, against a Dallas front that’s last. The 49ers ran for 190 yards in Las Vegas. Dallas outgained Indianapolis by more than 200 yards Sunday but committed 14 penalties. Keenan Allen joins a 49ers receiver room that’s missing Christian Kirk.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Steelers at Bengals (Sunday night, 8:20, NBC)

Line: Bengals -3.5, 48.5 · ESPN: Bengals 70.3%

Key to the Game: Pittsburgh’s defensive line, sixth on our list, against a Cincinnati offense that has scored 30 or more in four straight wins. Joe Burrow completed 24 of 29 passes in Madrid, and the Bengals’ line is 10th. The Steelers are coming off their bye.

Our Pick: Bengals.

Chargers at Ravens (Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN)

Line: Ravens -5.5, 38.5 · ESPN: Chargers 55.1%

Key to the Game: Jacoby Brissett’s first start for Baltimore after the trade from Arizona, behind a run game that piled up 172 yards on Jacksonville. The Chargers are 0-8, and their line, 29th on our list, gave up eight sacks in Houston. Justin Herbert left that game late with a finger injury he says shouldn’t be an issue. Kyle Hamilton’s hip is the Ravens’ defensive question.

Our Pick: Ravens. We’re against ESPN’s model here: Brissett is an upgrade on Joe Fagnano, and Baltimore’s defensive line, 11th on our list, gets a Chargers line that just gave up eight.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. Running the ball didn’t decide much. The team with more rushing yards won 9 of 15 games. Jacksonville was outrushed 172-77 in Baltimore and won by 23, and Chicago was outrushed 126-72 and beat Tampa Bay anyway.

2. Neither did the sack count. The team with more sacks won nine games, and two were even. Cincinnati never sacked Michael Penix Jr. and won by 17, and Buffalo was sacked four times, twice as often as it sacked Carson Wentz, and still won 23-6.

3. Takeaways only count if you use them. Tampa Bay took the ball away five times in Chicago and got a field goal and a touchdown out of them. Green Bay turned four New England turnovers into 21 points.

The post 2026 NFL: Week 9 Review, Week 10 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

There are no unbeaten teams left. Detroit ran for 230 yards to hand Minnesota its first loss, 19-15, and Buffalo moved to the top of most outside rankings after a 36-10 win over Baltimore.

• Lamar Jackson lasted one snap. He hurt his right thumb on his first play back from the ankle injury and is headed for surgery and injured reserve. Backup Tyler Huntley left with a toe injury, and undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano finished the game.
• Tampa Bay won without completing a pass. Baker Mayfield went 0 for 3, the Buccaneers ran 56 times for a team-record 324 yards, and Atlanta lost 16-0 in the rain. It was the first game with zero completions since the 1974 Bills.
• Dallas blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead at home for the first time, losing 33-30 in overtime to an Arizona team that benched Jacoby Brissett for Gardner Minshew.
• Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdowns, ran for the winner in overtime and joined Norm Van Brocklin (1951) as the only quarterbacks with 450 passing yards, five touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in a game.
• Denver held Kansas City out of the end zone from inside the 5 in the final 35 seconds, ending with Malcolm Roach’s sack on the last play, to win 28-24 and take first in the AFC West.
• Jeffery Simmons had a sack in his Bears debut, and Chicago beat the defending champions 34-17 in Seattle on Monday night.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Recap

Lines are the ones we published last week.

Packers 27, Panthers 19 (Thursday)

Box score · Line: Packers -3.5, 48.5 · Our pick: Packers

Expected: which bad line held up. Green Bay was 31st on our offensive line list and without both centers; Carolina was 30th on our defensive line list and without Taylor Moton.

What decided it: Green Bay’s front, not its line. The Packers sacked Bryce Young six times, one each from six players, and Carolina turned three takeaways into a single field goal. Jordan Love threw three touchdown passes while the Packers ran 26 times for 66 yards. Carolina played without Moton and left guard Damien Lewis.

Buccaneers 16, Falcons 0

Box score · Line: Buccaneers -2.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Buccaneers

Expected: Tampa Bay’s run game against an Atlanta front third in run stop win rate, and Michael Penix Jr.’s streak without an interception.

What decided it: the run game, in a driving rain. Tampa Bay ran 56 times for 324 yards, a team record: Bucky Irving had 170 and Kenny Gainwell 140. Mayfield threw three passes and completed none. Penix went 8 of 24 with four interceptions, two by Alex Anzalone in the first quarter.

Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30 (OT)

Box score · Line: Cowboys -6.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: Dallas’ run game (204 yards the week before) against a defense 29th in defensive DVOA, and Arizona’s red-zone trouble.

What decided it: neither held. Dallas ran 39 times for 93 yards. Arizona benched Brissett late in the third quarter, and Minshew went 17 of 23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns. Tyler Allgeier ran 11 times for 147 yards, all but 7 of his scrimmage yards after halftime. Dallas led 24-10 in the fourth quarter. Chad Ryland missed the go-ahead extra point with 6 seconds left, then won it from 42 yards in overtime.

Bills 36, Ravens 10

Box score · Our Ravens review · Line: Bills -3.5, 53.5 · Our pick: Bills

Expected: Jackson’s ankle, Buffalo off its bye, and Baltimore’s coverage.

What decided it: Jackson’s thumb. He was hurt on the first offensive snap, Huntley left in the second quarter, and Fagnano played the rest. Three quarterbacks combined for 68 net passing yards, Baltimore’s fewest since 2017. The Ravens trailed only 16-10 early in the third quarter; Buffalo then scored touchdowns on three of four possessions. Josh Allen threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns, ran for another and passed Jim Kelly for the Bills’ career touchdown record.

Steelers 27, Browns 6

Box score · Line: Steelers -3.5, 39.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: first place in the AFC North, Cleveland’s league-worst 10.6% sack rate, and Deshaun Watson’s late-game finishes.

What decided it: the lines. Pittsburgh sacked Watson eight times, two by T.J. Watt, and ran 33 times for 200 yards; Jaylen Warren had 143. Cleveland ran 15 times for 34. It was the Steelers’ 23rd straight regular-season home win over the Browns.

Jaguars 42, Colts 7

Box score · Line: Jaguars -8.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: Daniel Jones, and Jacksonville off its bye without Anton Harrison.

What decided it: Jones. He threw two interceptions, one returned 92 yards for a touchdown by Rayuan Lane before halftime, and was benched for Anthony Richardson in the fourth quarter. Trevor Lawrence went 10 of 14 for 210 yards and three touchdowns. The cost was nose tackle DaVon Hamilton, carted off with a right knee injury.

Raiders 38, Jets 33

Box score · Line: Raiders -1.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Jets

Expected: the Jets at home against a Raiders defense that had allowed 30-plus points four straight weeks.

What decided it: the Raiders allowed 30-plus again and won anyway. The Jets scored on their first six possessions and Braelon Allen ran for 147 yards. Kirk Cousins went 19 of 26 for 247 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a fourth; Dylan Laube returned a kickoff 95 yards. Jeremy Chinn’s end-zone interception ended it.

Lions 19, Vikings 15

Box score · Line: Lions -3.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: Minnesota’s defense, first in points allowed, against Jared Goff, and a Vikings offense with 10 touchdowns in six games.

What decided it: Detroit’s run game. The Lions ran 39 times for 230 yards, 164 after halftime, against a defense that had been allowing under 100 a game; Jahmyr Gibbs had 153. Kevin O’Connell punted on fourth-and-5 from his own 33 with 3:01 left, and Detroit never gave the ball back. Linebacker Jack Campbell was taken to a hospital with a neck injury.

Bengals 43, Titans 36 (OT)

Box score · Line: Bengals -10, 46.5 · Our pick: Bengals

Expected: Burrow against a defense last in defensive DVOA, and Tony Pollard.

What decided it: Burrow, both ways. He went 38 of 48 for 462 yards and five touchdowns, was intercepted three times by Amani Hooker, tied it with 1:17 left and ran 9 yards for the winner in overtime. Pollard ran for 117 yards and two touchdowns, and Cam Ward threw for 304, his career high. Tennessee led 13-0 in the first quarter and 36-29 with 3:42 left.

Rams 24, Chargers 9

Box score · Line: Rams -6.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: the Rams’ run game, first in run block win rate, against an 0-6 team off its bye, and Justin Herbert’s interceptions.

What decided it: Herbert’s two interceptions, by Quentin Lake and Trent McDuffie, which the Rams turned into 10 points. The Rams had no first down until late in the first half and trailed 9-3, then scored on three touchdown drives. The Chargers ran 25 times for 64 yards and have not scored a touchdown in two games.

Broncos 28, Chiefs 24

Box score · Line: Chiefs -1.5, 41.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: a Kansas City offense that scored 3 points without both starting tackles, Denver’s pass rush, and whether Rashee Rice returned.

What decided it: the last two minutes. Rice and tackle Jaylon Moore were back, and Patrick Mahomes threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns as Kansas City led 24-13 early in the fourth. Harrison Butker missed from 54 yards, and Denver scored two plays later on Jonah Coleman’s 51-yard catch and 5-yard run. On fourth-and-goal from the 1, a Moore false start wiped out a touchdown to Rice, and Roach sacked Mahomes on the replay.

Patriots 24, Dolphins 19

Box score · Line: Patriots -7.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: Malik Willis and Miami’s red-zone efficiency against a Patriots defense that had slipped.

What decided it: the second half. Miami led 13-3 at halftime, and New England outscored it 21-0 after. Drake Maye went 16 of 20 for 199 yards, with touchdown passes of 43 and 48 yards, and ran for a third, without A.J. Brown or TreVeyon Henderson. The Patriots sacked Willis five times; Miami ran 23 times for 74 yards without left guard Kadyn Proctor.

Commanders 27, Eagles 10 (Sunday night)

Box score · Line: Commanders -5.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Commanders

Expected: Tanner McKee on a five-game losing streak against Washington off its bye, without Terry McLaurin.

What decided it: Washington’s defense after a sloppy first quarter. The Eagles led 10-0; Washington then scored 27 straight points. The Commanders sacked McKee five times and held Philadelphia to 91 rushing yards. Jayden Daniels threw for 217 yards and won as a starter for the first time since Oct. 5, 2025. McLaurin is out for the season.

Bears 34, Seahawks 17 (Monday night)

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 46.5 · Our pick: Seahawks

Expected: Seattle’s front, first on our defensive line list, against a Chicago line just outside our top 8, and Caleb Williams’ two straight 300-yard games.

What decided it: Chicago won up front on both sides. Williams threw for 247 yards with no turnovers and one sack, D’Andre Swift ran for three touchdowns, and the opening drive went 17 plays for a touchdown. Simmons had a sack in his debut. Seattle converted 1 of 11 third downs and ran for 81 yards in its first game with Quenton Nelson.

Power Rankings

The 49ers stay first through their bye. They lead FTN’s DVOA, have our No. 1 offensive line, and add DeForest Buckner up front. Buffalo is a close second, and Jacksonville jumps four spots to third.

*NFL.com’s Week 9 rankings were not up at build time; this column is Nate Davis’s USA Today rankings (Nov. 3). DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 8; ESPN and Pete Prisco (CBS Sports) are their Week 9 lists.

• 49ers (1): first in DVOA and on our offensive line list. Buckner returns for Raiders week.
• Bills (2): No. 1 for ESPN, Prisco, PFT and Fox. Our No. 2 offensive line, but the defensive line is 22nd.
• Jaguars (7): second in DVOA after the 42-7 win, with a three-game division lead. Losing DaVon Hamilton hurts the middle of a run defense already 32nd in run stop win rate.
• Broncos (8): 15 straight wins in one-score games. Our No. 3 defensive line.
• Bears (9): the Seattle win was their best game by DVOA (FTN). Seventh on our offensive line list; Simmons should lift a defensive line that is 20th.
• Chiefs (5): two straight losses. Fourth on our offensive line list, 28th on the defensive one; one elite line and one weak leaves them on results alone.
• Vikings (3): first loss. Their offense is 28th in points per drive (Ringer Staff), and their offensive line is 16th.
• Bengals (6): third in DVOA but 15th on defense, and needed overtime against a 1-7 team.
• Patriots (10): up one. Both lines are in our top 8 (fifth on offense, eighth on defense).
• Steelers (12): up two. Both lines are in our top 8 (eighth on offense, sixth on defense), and they lead the AFC North at 6-2.
• Lions (11): beat Minnesota with a 230-yard run game. Sixth on our offensive line list, 26th in defensive DVOA.
• Seahawks (4): down eight. Three losses in four games, and a run game that managed 81 yards in Nelson’s debut.
• Rams (13): two straight wins, seventh in DVOA. Third on our offensive line list.
• Buccaneers (18): up four. Fifth in DVOA and first on defense, with two straight wins by a combined 59-13.
• Packers (17): 5-3 and up two, but held below their record: both lines are in our bottom 12 (31st on offense, 21st on defense).
• Browns (15): sacked eight times in Pittsburgh. Our worst offensive line and our fourth-best defensive line.
• Giants (19): on bye, still alone in first in the NFC East.
• Panthers (21): lead the NFC South at 3-4, but they lost Moton and Damien Lewis up front.
• Falcons (16): shut out in the rain, with Penix’s four interceptions. Down three.
• Ravens (14): down six. Jackson is headed to injured reserve, and Fagnano may start Thursday.
• Raiders (23): snapped a four-game skid. Their defense has allowed 30-plus five straight weeks (ESPN).
• Texans (22): on bye. 14th in DVOA, ahead of their 2-5 record.
• Cardinals (29): up six after the win in Dallas. Minshew is expected to start (Prisco).
• Cowboys (20): down four. Their defense is last in EPA per play (Barnwell) and their run game managed 93 yards.
• Commanders (25): first win in more than a month (AP). They lost Daron Payne for the season (Ringer Staff).
• Saints (26): on bye. Our offensive line is 18th; the defense is 30th in DVOA.
• Jets (27): down two. Scored on six straight drives and still lost.
• Eagles (24): down four. Six straight losses.
• Colts (28): down one. Jones was benched in Jacksonville days after the Nelson and Buckner trades.
• Dolphins (30): led New England 13-3 at halftime, then were shut out the rest of the way.
• Titans (31): took Cincinnati to overtime in their first game without Simmons.
• Chargers (32): 0-7, no touchdowns in two games, and last in DVOA.

Offensive Lines

San Francisco and Buffalo hold the top two spots. Detroit (14th to sixth) and Chicago (ninth to seventh) move in; Cincinnati and Dallas drop out.

Win rates are ESPN’s season figures (league rank in parentheses). Sack rate and yards per carry are measured against the average of the defenses each line has faced. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

• Out: Bengals (to ninth) and Cowboys (to 17th; 2.4 yards a carry against Arizona).
• First out: Bengals, Colts, Broncos. The Colts are 10th on the numbers but traded Quenton Nelson last week.
• Lions: ran for 230 yards against a Minnesota defense that had been allowing under 100 a game (AP).
• Bears: fourth in pass block win rate; Caleb Williams was sacked once in Seattle.
• Bills: held at two with tackle Spencer Brown out Sunday. His status for Minnesota is the one to watch.
• Charting against results: Packers (last in pass block win rate, 2.9 yards a carry) at 5-3, and Browns (32nd; an 11.6% sack rate after eight sacks in Pittsburgh) at 5-3.
• Watch in Week 9: Seattle’s line with Nelson at left guard; Carolina without Moton and Lewis against Denver’s No. 3 defensive line.

Full order

Defensive Lines

Seattle and Minnesota stay one and two. Denver climbs five spots to third, and Pittsburgh (15th to sixth) and New England (14th to eighth) move in; Atlanta and Baltimore drop out.

Defensive DVOA is FTN’s through Week 8 (negative is better).

• Out: Falcons (to ninth; gave up 324 rushing yards in Tampa) and Ravens (to 12th).
• First out: Falcons, Buccaneers (first in defensive DVOA), Lions.
• Steelers: eight sacks of Watson; they lead the league with 26 (Prisco).
• Broncos: two sacks of Mahomes in the final three minutes, including the one that ended the game.
• Browns: held at fourth on the numbers. Maliek Collins hurt his elbow; watch his status.
• 49ers: 13th on the numbers with Nick Bosa still out. Buckner plays his first game back Sunday; we’ll judge them after it.
• Bears: 20th, with one game of Simmons. Same approach: one game is not enough to move them.
• Jaguars: 19th and without DaVon Hamilton, but fifth in defensive DVOA.
• Giants: 18th on the numbers, second in pass rush win rate. Still not restored on win rate alone after the Burns injury.

Full order

Win Totals

Five of the six calls most likely to move did move. Denver now shares the AFC West projection with Kansas City, Detroit closed within a game of Minnesota, and Chicago pulled level with the Vikings. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 120 wins and the tie already banked.

• AFC seeds: Bills and Jaguars, then the AFC North and AFC West winners; wild cards are the two division runners-up and the Patriots. First out: the Browns.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, then the NFC North winner, Giants and the NFC South winner; wild cards are the NFC North runner-up, the Lions, and the Packers or Seahawks. First out: whichever of Green Bay and Seattle misses.
• Ties not projected: Buffalo and Jacksonville for the AFC top seed; Cincinnati and Pittsburgh for the AFC North; Kansas City and Denver for the AFC West; Minnesota and Chicago for the NFC North; Carolina and Tampa Bay for the NFC South; Green Bay and Seattle for the last NFC spot.
• Kansas City reversal: first team out in August; now 11-6 and tied with Denver for the AFC West after two straight losses.
• What moved in Week 8: up one each, Packers, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Lions, Broncos, Commanders, Bears, Steelers (Jackson’s injury; they play Baltimore twice) and Jaguars; down one each, Panthers, Falcons, Cowboys, Vikings, Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks, Ravens and Colts.
• Ravens: 8-9 assumes Jackson misses about a month; it moves if his timeline does.

Calls most likely to move after Week 9: Bills 12-5 at Vikings 12-5 (Monday); Jaguars 12-5 at Ravens 8-9 (Thursday); Packers 10-7 at Patriots 10-7; Buccaneers 8-9 at Bears 12-5 (Sunday night); Broncos 11-6 at Panthers 8-9; Giants 9-7-1 at Eagles 5-12.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen has played the best through eight weeks. This checkpoint covers Weeks 5 through 8, and the list ranks play this season, not reputation. How we tier the starters on talent follows the list.

Who has played the best through Week 8

QBR is ESPN’s season Total QBR. The NFL.com QB Index (Nick Shook) and the CBS Sports QB Power Rankings are both from Oct. 28, before the Week 8 games. Mike Sando’s QB Tiers for The Athletic are the preseason edition from Aug. 4, the only one this season.

• Allen: led the league in EPA per dropback and total touchdowns entering Week 8 (CBS), then threw for 289 yards and accounted for three touchdowns against Baltimore.
• Burrow: 462 yards and six total touchdowns Sunday. The three interceptions keep him behind Allen.
• Purdy: first in QBR, while playing without as many as six receivers.
• Williams: no turnovers in his three games back. The shortest sample on the list.
• Goff: opened the season with 223 throws without an interception, the most through six games in NFL history (CBS). QBR has him 13th; the rest of the evidence has him higher.
• Lawrence: 14 touchdown passes in six games, then three more on 14 throws against Indianapolis.
• Maye: 14 total touchdowns in October, and Sunday’s win came without A.J. Brown.
• Prescott: sixth in QBR, but held under 200 yards in Sunday’s loss.
• First out: C.J. Stroud (seventh in QBR, fourth in the Index, 15th at CBS), then Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love.
• Lamar Jackson is off this list after playing one snap since Week 4; he is headed to injured reserve after thumb surgery.

How we tier the starters

This is our read on talent and body of work, not this season alone. The season can move a quarterback one tier at a four-week checkpoint, and four moved at this one.

• Elite (the reason you win): Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson (injured reserve)
• Excellent: Prescott, Goff, Love, Purdy, Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Maye, Stafford
• Can Win With: Herbert, Stroud, Nix, Cousins, Darnold, Jayden Daniels, Young
• Below Average: Mayfield, Rodgers, Penix, Shough, Murray, Watson
• Bad (a reason you lose): Geno Smith, Ward, Willis, Daniel Jones
• Maye up to Excellent: his form held for the whole stretch, and he has produced without his top receiver.
• Stafford down to Excellent: he was the MVP last season, but he has thrown for under 225 yards in three straight games and ranks 12th or 13th on every in-season list.
• Herbert down to Can Win With: everyone agrees on the talent. His line and supporting cast have been poor, but a quarterback of his ability should lift the players around him, and he has thrown an interception in all seven games.
• Jones down to Bad: benched in the fourth quarter in Jacksonville and 29th in QBR.
• Love above Purdy: Love has more talent; Purdy has run Kyle Shanahan’s system as well as anyone.
• Not tiered: Jalen Hurts (out for the season) and the replacement starters, J.J. McCarthy, Tanner McKee, Gardner Minshew and, if he replaces Jones, Anthony Richardson, until they have played a full checkpoint.

Week 9 Preview

Fifteen games, starting Thursday in Baltimore and including Cincinnati and Atlanta in Madrid. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on bye.

Jaguars at Ravens (Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video)

Line: Jaguars -8.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 80.9%

Key to the Game: Baltimore’s quarterback. Jackson is headed to injured reserve and Huntley is awaiting an MRI on his toe, so undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano will get his first start on four days’ rest. Baltimore Jacksonville has its own short-week problem in the middle, without nose tackle DaVon Hamilton.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Bengals vs. Falcons in Madrid (Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network)

Line: Bengals -3, 52.5 · ESPN: Bengals 77.3%

Key to the Game: whether Michael Penix Jr.’s four interceptions in the rain were a one-off. Atlanta had scored the most points per game in the league since he returned in Week 3 (ESPN). Cincinnati’s defense is 15th in defensive DVOA and may be without cornerback DJ Turner II.

Our Pick: Bengals.

Browns at Saints (1:00 p.m.)

Line: Saints -2.5, 43.5 · ESPN: Saints 62.6%

Key to the Game: Cleveland’s defensive line, fourth on our list, against a Saints line that is 18th. The Browns’ O-line is 32nd after eight sacks in Pittsburgh, and New Orleans comes off its bye.

Our Pick: Browns. Against the line and the model, with low confidence: Cleveland is 22nd in DVOA to New Orleans’ 29th, and its front should decide a low-scoring game.

Cowboys at Colts (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Cowboys -6, 51.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 61.2%

Key to the Game: an Indianapolis team that traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner and benched Daniel Jones in the fourth quarter Sunday, against a Dallas defense that is last in EPA per play (Barnwell). Who starts at quarterback for the Colts, and whether Jonathan Taylor is still on the roster, both matter.

Our Pick: Cowboys.

Broncos at Panthers (1:00 p.m.)

Line: Broncos -3, 43.5 · ESPN: Broncos 63.5%

Key to the Game: Denver’s defensive line, third on our list, against a Carolina line that is 26th and was without Taylor Moton and Damien Lewis on Thursday. Denver is 10 for 48 on third down over its last four games (AP), all wins.

Our Pick: Broncos.

Lions at Dolphins (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Lions -7, 50.5 · ESPN: Lions 77.7%

Key to the Game: Detroit’s injuries on defense. Linebacker Jack Campbell went to a hospital with a neck injury, and Brian Branch, DJ Wonnum and D.J. Reed were also hurt Sunday. Miami’s run game struggled without left guard Kadyn Proctor.

Our Pick: Lions.

Rams at Commanders (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Rams 72.5%

Key to the Game: the Rams’ offensive line, third on our list, against a Washington front without Daron Payne. Matthew Stafford has thrown for under 225 yards in three straight games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Giants at Eagles (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Giants -3.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Giants 54.0%

Key to the Game: J.J. McCarthy’s second start after a bye, against an Eagles defense that has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in every game (Fox). Philadelphia has lost six straight.

Our Pick: Giants. Low confidence: a road division game for a quarterback with one start for this team.

Jets at Chiefs (1:00 p.m.)

Line: Chiefs -9.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 80.4%

Key to the Game: Kansas City’s run game, with Kenneth Walker III at 3.0 yards a carry over two straight losses (CBS), against a Jets run defense that has been 31st since Week 3 (ESPN). Braelon Allen has three 100-yard games for New York.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Texans at Chargers (4:05 p.m.)

Line: Texans -4.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Texans 61.6%

Key to the Game: a Chargers offense that has gone 27 straight drives without a touchdown, behind our 30th-ranked line, against Houston’s No. 5 defensive line off a bye.

Our Pick: Texans.

Cardinals at Seahawks (4:25 p.m., Fox)

Line: Seahawks -11.5, 44.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 81.8%

Key to the Game: Arizona’s health. Minshew is expected to start (Prisco), Jeremiyah Love re-injured his ankle and Bam Knight left with a concussion. Seattle needs its run game, 81 yards on Monday, to show up behind Quenton Nelson.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Packers at Patriots (4:25 p.m., Fox)

Line: Patriots -3, 46.5 · ESPN: Patriots 57.2%

Key to the Game: New England has both lines in our top 8; Green Bay’s offensive line is 31st and its run game is the league’s worst. Micah Parsons is practicing (Prisco), and A.J. Brown’s knee is the Patriots’ question.

Our Pick: Patriots.

Raiders at 49ers (4:25 p.m., Fox)

Line: 49ers -10, 51.5 · ESPN: 49ers 84.3%

Key to the Game: DeForest Buckner’s first game back in San Francisco, against a Raiders defense that has allowed 30-plus points five straight weeks (ESPN) and is 31st on our defensive line list.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Buccaneers at Bears (Sunday night, 8:20 p.m., NBC)

Line: Bears -4.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Bears 59.8%

Key to the Game: Tampa Bay’s run game, 582 yards over two weeks, against a Chicago front 26th in run stop win rate that lost Grady Jarrett to a groin injury Monday. The Buccaneers are fifth in DVOA, the Bears 13th.

Our Pick: Bears.

Bills at Vikings (Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC)

Line: Bills -3.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Bills 60.6%

Key to the Game: Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense, second on our list, against Josh Allen, and whether Kyler Murray’s offense, 28th in points per drive (Ringer Staff), can score enough to matter.

Our Pick: Bills.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. Sacks picked the winners. The team with more sacks won 10 of the 14 games. The exceptions were Tampa Bay, which threw three passes, plus Arizona, Detroit and Cincinnati; two of those needed overtime.
2. Five teams won after trailing by 10 or more: Arizona (down 17-3), Cincinnati (13-0), Denver (24-13), New England (13-3) and Washington (10-0). The Raiders also came back from nine down at halftime.
3. The run game still mattered. The team with more rushing yards won 10 of 14, from Tampa Bay’s 324 to Detroit’s 230 against the league’s best defense by points allowed.

The post 2026 NFL: Week 8 Review, Week 9 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The Vikings are the last unbeaten team. The 49ers lost for the first time, 29-20 in Atlanta after four turnovers, and Seattle held the Chiefs to 3 points on Sunday night. Five underdogs won outright, including the Giants at 10 points in Houston, and the Giants now lead the NFC East at 4-2-1 with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. Lamar Jackson missed a third straight game, and Baltimore blew a 13-0 halftime lead to Cincinnati.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 7 Recap

Five of 14 games went to the underdog outright, the biggest the Giants at 10 points in Houston. The run game decided more of them than anything we flagged.

Lines are the ones we published before each game.

Bears 30, Patriots 24 (Thursday)

Box score · Line: Bears -3, 50.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: A New England line on a short week without Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown; Romeo Doubs’ shoulder; Kyler Gordon’s nickel blitz; Caleb Williams’ short passing against a secondary with Christian Gonzalez back.

What decided it: Williams’ deep shots, not the short game, and one bad Drake Maye throw. Luther Burden caught four passes for 130 yards: a 58-yarder that set up D’Andre Swift’s touchdown, and a 24-yard screen on third-and-17 for a 20-7 lead with 14 seconds left in the half. Maye went 24 of 31 for 321, but D’Marco Jackson intercepted him in the end zone. New England’s line held up better than we expected: Moses and Will Campbell both played, and Maye was sacked twice, once by Gordon on fourth down. Cairo Santos missed from 53, then hit from 58 with 1:34 left, matching the franchise record (AP), and Chicago recovered the onside kick. Cole Kmet hurt his right knee.

Steelers 16, Saints 10 (Paris)

Box score · Line: Steelers -3, 44.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: Whether New Orleans could play four quarters; Pittsburgh without Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson, leaning on DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard; Tyler Shough’s hand; Cesar Ruiz’s knee.

What decided it: New Orleans’ run game, not its fourth quarter. With Ruiz inactive and rookie Jeremiah Wright at right guard, the Saints ran 17 times for 18 yards. Pittsburgh ran for 148, 101 of them by Jaylen Warren. Shough went 30 of 38 for 278, but Payton Wilson intercepted him in the red zone in the third quarter, and Chris Boswell’s 39-yarder that followed was the last score. Metcalf’s 51-yard catch set up Aaron Rodgers’ 4-yard touchdown to Darnell Washington, his 540th, which moved him past Peyton Manning for third all time. Daniel Carlson missed from 52 in the fourth quarter.

Falcons 29, 49ers 20

Box score · Line: 49ers -4.5, 50.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: Atlanta’s front against a 49ers team coming off Monday night; Michael Penix Jr. pressured on 46% of his dropbacks; Falcons linebackers Kendal Daniels and Divine Deablo hurt; San Francisco thin at receiver.

What decided it: Turnovers, 4-0. San Francisco outgained Atlanta 400-295 and lost anyway. Kaelon Black lost a fumble at the Atlanta 29, and Jessie Bates III intercepted Brock Purdy at the 10 to set up Drake London’s touchdown for a 26-14 lead. Daniels, hurt a week earlier, intercepted Purdy with 2:34 left and recovered George Kittle’s fumble. A review took away Purdy’s apparent 23-yard touchdown to Jordan Watkins, and Za’Darius Smith sacked him on the next play, fourth down. Penix went 25 of 34 with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Christian McCaffrey hurt his thigh and finished with seven carries; Deablo was inactive.

Browns 27, Titans 24

Box score · Line: Browns -1.5, 38.5 · Our pick: Browns

Expected: Tennessee’s six-sack defense against a Browns offense that wins late.

What decided it: Deshaun Watson late, again. Tennessee sacked him once, and he threw for 308 yards and led his fifth fourth-quarter winning drive: Harold Fannin Jr.’s 36-yard catch-and-run set up Andre Szmyt’s 32-yarder at the gun, after Szmyt hit the upright from 43. The Titans led 14-0, but Maliek Collins stopped Tony Pollard on fourth-and-goal from inside the 1, and Denzel Ward intercepted Cam Ward. Pollard ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns, the last tying it with 58 seconds left. Robert Saleh said officials appeared to miss a false start on the Fannin play. KC Concepcion caught eight passes for 129.

Vikings 16, Colts 10

Box score · Line: Vikings -5.5, 41.5 · Our pick: Vikings

Expected: Daniel Jones’ turnovers; Minnesota off its bye; Sauce Gardner’s calf, no Tyler Warren, a general manager just fired.

What decided it: Minnesota’s blitz, and two missed Colts field goals. Jones went 13 of 22 for 108, was sacked four times for 44 yards, and Harrison Smith’s 40th career interception sealed it. Blake Cashman had two sacks and four passes defensed. Indianapolis led 10-6 into the fourth quarter on Jonathan Taylor’s 38-yard run, but Spencer Shrader missed twice; the 56-yard try on fourth-and-2 set up Kyler Murray’s touchdown pass to T.J. Hockenson. Will Reichard hit from 52 with 1:39 left after his 59-yard try was blocked. Gardner and Warren were inactive, and Aaron Jones aggravated his knee.

Dolphins 28, Jets 25

Box score · Line: Jets -4.5, 38.5 · Our pick: Jets

Expected: The Jets’ red zone after 0 for 3 at New England; Miami 0-5 off its bye.

What decided it: The red zone, both ways. Miami scored on all three trips inside the 20. The Jets reached the Miami 1 and settled for a field goal, and Michael Taaffe intercepted Geno Smith at the Miami 21. Malik Willis went 14 of 21 for 208 with two touchdowns to rookie Caleb Douglas, the second a 63-yarder for a 28-17 lead, and ran for another. He also gained 2 on fourth-and-1 at the two-minute warning to end it. Jason Sanders hit the upright from 40. It was Jeff Hafley’s first win, and the Jets are 0-8 in the division under Aaron Glenn.

Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13

Box score · Line: Panthers -3, 44.5 · Our pick: Panthers

Expected: Tampa Bay’s run game, 26th in success rate; Baker Mayfield’s thumb; Carolina’s 13 penalties; Jaelan Phillips’ hamstring.

What decided it: The run game we doubted. Tampa Bay ran 49 times for 258 yards, Bucky Irving 106 and two touchdowns, so Mayfield threw only 11 passes in his return. Carolina’s penalties weren’t the problem (four for 56); turnovers were. Al-Quadin Muhammad’s strip-sack of Bryce Young went back 32 yards for a Calijah Kancey touchdown, David Moore muffed a punt, and Young threw two interceptions. Zyon McCollum returned a blocked extra point for 2. Tampa Bay sacked Young five times, three by Yaya Diaby, and led 33-6 at half. Phillips was inactive, and right tackle Taylor Moton was carted off with a left ankle/fibula injury.

Bengals 35, Ravens 13

Box score · Line: Ravens -3, 51.5 · Our pick: Ravens

What decided it: Jackson didn’t play, and by our own condition the pick was Cincinnati’s. Baltimore outgained the Bengals 258-59 in the first half but led only 13-0 after two short field goals. Cincinnati then scored touchdowns on its first five second-half possessions and went 5 for 5 in the red zone. Joe Burrow threw four touchdown passes and had a perfect 158.3 rating after halftime (Ben Solak, ESPN), and Tee Higgins caught all six of his passes for 148 yards in the second half. Tyler Huntley threw for 215 in the first half, 120 to Zay Flowers, but missed on fourth-and-2 at the Cincinnati 12. Henry ran 17 times for 45 without a fumble. Baltimore became the first team in 76 years to lead by 13 at half and lose by 20 (AP, via Sportradar). Vega Ioane left with a knee injury. (Our full review)

Giants 27, Texans 21 (OT)

Box score · Line: Texans -10, 42.5 · Our pick: Texans

Expected: The Giants’ quarterback, Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy; C.J. Stroud with Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaylin Noel and Nico Collins against a secondary without Greg Newsome.

What decided it: McCarthy started, and the Giants ran. New York gained 188 yards on 34 carries, the most Houston has allowed this season. Cam Skattebo, without a carry a week earlier, ran 17 times for 124, and his 42-yard run in overtime set up Devin Singletary’s 30-yard winner. McCarthy went 20 of 28 for 252. Stroud threw for a season-low 153, and Houston punted on its first three second-half possessions before Xavier Hutchinson’s touchdown tied it with under a minute left. Dominic Zvada missed twice, and Kayvon Thibodeaux dropped an interception in overtime. Noel left with a toe injury.

Broncos 30, Cardinals 16

Box score · Line: Broncos -4.5, 43.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: Denver’s offense, 26th in scoring and 31st on third down, against Arizona’s league-best seven fourth-down stops; Jeremiyah Love’s ankle.

What decided it: Big plays, not third downs. Denver went 3 of 11 on third down and still scored 30. Bo Nix ran 62 yards for a touchdown, the longest run of his career, after 37 rushing yards in his first six games, and RJ Harvey took a screen 52 yards for another. Arizona settled: one touchdown in five red-zone trips, 5 of 17 on third down. Denver’s defense had three sacks and 12 quarterback hits, and the Broncos overcame 11 penalties for 114 yards. Love was inactive again, and Arizona has lost 10 straight at home.

Lions 20, Packers 17

Box score · Line: Lions -3, 52.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: Detroit’s defense, last in EPA per drive allowed, against Packers drops; Josh Jacobs’ return; Detroit off its bye.

What decided it: Green Bay’s kicking and Detroit’s free first downs. Detroit’s defense allowed 17 points and one touchdown in four Green Bay red-zone trips. Rookie Trey Smack missed from 26 and 35, the first kicker to miss twice from 35 or closer in a game since 2019. Penalties gave Detroit five first downs, two on Karl Brooks during the final drive, and Jake Bates won it from 22 at the gun. Dan Campbell’s fourth-and-1 at his own 24 failed. Jacobs caught a touchdown pass in his season debut. Brian Branch intercepted Jordan Love in his first game back from a torn Achilles, and Green Bay lost both centers.

Rams 35, Raiders 21

Box score · Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: The Rams’ kicking after Blake Grupe’s knee; Davante Adams out; a pass rush that rarely finishes; Ashton Jeanty.

What decided it: The Rams scored touchdowns on all five red-zone trips, so the kicking never came up; Brandon McManus kicked five extra points. Los Angeles led 28-6 at half. Matthew Stafford threw three touchdown passes to become the Rams’ career leader, and Kyren Williams and Blake Corum ran for 192 combined. The rush got two sacks. Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. ran 14 times for 42. Kirk Cousins threw for 295, but the Raiders failed on two fourth downs in Rams territory and both two-point tries. Puka Nacua played through his calf; Trent McDuffie was inactive again.

Seahawks 20, Chiefs 3 (Sunday night)

Box score · Line: Seahawks -2.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Chiefs

Expected: Seattle’s protection after Denver hit Sam Darnold 17 times, against a rush that just had four sacks; Kansas City’s injured tackles against our top defensive line.

What decided it: Seattle’s lines, on both sides. Kansas City didn’t sack Darnold, and Seattle ran 41 times for 153, Emanuel Wilson 100 of it. Kenneth Walker, the league’s leading rusher against his old team, ran 14 times for 36, and the Chiefs finished with 213 yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught nine passes for 150 and a touchdown. Ty Okada intercepted Patrick Mahomes, and Harrison Butker missed from 45. Darnold also threw an interception at the goal line. Kansas City played without both starting tackles, Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore, and without Rashee Rice; Seattle lost Rashid Shaheed (knee) and Charles Cross (ankle).

Cowboys 38, Eagles 21 (Monday)

Box score · Line: Cowboys -4.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts out for the season; Philadelphia’s six third-quarter points; Dak Prescott’s interceptions.

What decided it: Dallas ran, and Prescott didn’t throw an interception. Javonte Williams ran for a career-high 155, the first 150-yard game by a Cowboy since 2018, and Dallas finished with 204 on the ground. Prescott threw three touchdown passes, two to CeeDee Lamb, the second a 16-yard floater that retook the lead late in the third quarter. Philadelphia did score in the third, its first third-quarter touchdown this season, for a 21-20 lead. McKee went 23 of 35 for 211, and DeMarvion Overshown’s interception sealed it. Saquon Barkley scored in his return but was limited by his hamstring and back. The Eagles have lost five straight.

Power Rankings

The 49ers hold No. 1 through their first loss; they are still first in DVOA and on ESPN’s list. The biggest moves are the Buccaneers (up 6), Bengals and Steelers (up 5), and Panthers (down 8). Our line rankings count here: both Falcons lines rank in our top 10, which helps lift a 3-4 team four spots, and both Packers lines rank in our bottom five, which drops a 4-3 team two.

DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 7. Outside rankings: ESPN, NFL.com and Pete Prisco, CBS Sports.

1. 49ers (1). 6-1 after four turnovers in Atlanta, and still first in DVOA and first on our offensive line list. The bye comes with Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey (thigh) all hurt.
2. Bills (3). Up one on a bye. Second on our offensive line list; Lamar Jackson’s possible return is next (Prisco).
3. Vikings (4). Up one at 6-0, first in the other three lists. The defense has allowed a league-low 74 points; the offense has 10 touchdowns in six games.
4. Seahawks (8). Up four. Held Kansas City to 3 points and 50 rushing yards, and our top defensive line again.
5. Chiefs (2). Down three after 213 yards in Seattle. Our third offensive line, but 25th on defense, and Rashee Rice and Jaylon Moore were both out.
6. Bengals (11). Up five. Second in DVOA after five straight second-half touchdowns in Baltimore.
7. Jaguars (5). Down two on a bye. Third in DVOA, but left tackle Anton Harrison is out for the season (Prisco).
8. Broncos (7). Down one despite winning. Three straight wins, and the offense finally hit big plays in Arizona.
9. Bears (9). Held after beating New England. Caleb Williams has 300-yard games in consecutive weeks, though DVOA (17th) is lower on them than any list.
10. Patriots (6). Down four after losing in Chicago. Back on our offensive line list at fifth, with Morgan Moses and Alijah Vera-Tucker playing Thursday.
11. Lions (12). Up one. Two straight wins, but both lines sit outside our top 8 and the defense is 25th in defensive DVOA.
12. Steelers (17). Up five. Three straight wins, ninth in DVOA, and both lines in our top 15.
13. Rams (14). Up one. Both lines rank in our top 13, and they scored touchdowns on all five red-zone trips in Las Vegas.
14. Ravens (10). Down four. A second straight blown lead without Lamar Jackson, and the coverage, not the rush, is the problem (Solak).
15. Browns (18). Up three. 5-2 on Deshaun Watson’s fifth winning drive, with our third-ranked defensive line and 30th-ranked offensive line.
16. Falcons (20). Up four. Handed San Francisco its first loss, and both lines rank in our top 10.
17. Packers (15). Down two. Two missed short field goals in Detroit, two centers hurt, and both lines in our bottom five.
18. Buccaneers (24). Up six. 258 rushing yards in Carolina and seventh in DVOA, well above any outside list.
19. Giants (22). Up three. J.J. McCarthy’s first start won in Houston, and they lead the NFC East at 4-2-1.
20. Cowboys (21). Up one. Javonte Williams’ 155 yards in Philadelphia, with our seventh-ranked offensive line and 31st-ranked defensive line.
21. Panthers (13). Down eight after a 43-13 home loss: five sacks allowed, four turnovers, and Taylor Moton carted off.
22. Texans (16). Down six after losing at home to a third-string quarterback. Houston allowed 188 rushing yards.
23. Raiders (19). Down four after a fourth straight loss and 30-plus points allowed for a fourth straight week.
24. Eagles (25). Up one, mostly as others fell. Five straight losses; Philadelphia has allowed at least 375 yards in each.
25. Jets (23). Down two after losing at home to the Dolphins. 0-8 in the division under Aaron Glenn.
26. Saints (27). Up one. 18 rushing yards in Paris; bye next.
27. Commanders (29). Up two on a bye, ahead of Philadelphia at home.
28. Colts (28). Held. Daniel Jones has four touchdown passes and seven interceptions, and the defensive line ranks last on our list.
29. Cardinals (26). Down three. One touchdown in five red-zone trips at home against Denver, and 10 straight home losses.
30. Dolphins (32). Up two with their first win, behind Malik Willis.
31. Titans (30). Down one. Tony Pollard ran for 129 and three touchdowns, and they still lost.
32. Chargers (31). Down one on a bye, the only winless team.

Offensive Lines

The 49ers take No. 1 back from the Bills. The Patriots return after two weeks held out, and the Cowboys enter after 204 rushing yards in Philadelphia; the Raiders and Bears drop out. Each line is judged on the season: ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, sacks allowed and rushing, both measured against what its opponents’ defenses usually allow, and injuries that change who is available. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 7, rank in parentheses (ESPN). Sack rate is sacks per dropback; the figure in parentheses is the difference from what the same opponents’ defenses averaged (negative is better). YPC in parentheses is the difference from what those defenses allowed (positive is better). Opponent averages are from CBS Sports team stats through Week 6 and the Week 7 box scores, and include each opponent’s game against that team.

• 49ers: up two, first in pass block win rate and a 3.2% sack rate. Ran for 123 in Atlanta without Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel or, for most of the first half, Christian McCaffrey.
• Bills: down one on a bye. Second in run block win rate; the sack rate is now exactly what their opponents allow.
• Chiefs: down one. Allowed one sack in Seattle but ran 16 times for 50, without both starting tackles, Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore (Solak).
• Rams: held, first in run block win rate. Ran for 199 in Las Vegas and allowed one sack; Alaric Jackson’s suspension length is still unknown.
• Patriots: back in at fifth, where the numbers had them the last two weeks. Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Will Campbell all played Thursday, and Drake Maye was sacked twice; center Ben Brown was inactive.
• Bengals: down one. Third in run block win rate but 28th in pass block; Joe Burrow was sacked once in Baltimore.
• Cowboys: in, on the league’s lowest sack rate, 2.5%, and Monday’s 204 rushing yards. Still 28th in run block win rate, the gap we charted last week.
• Steelers: held after 148 rushing yards in Paris, though Aaron Rodgers was sacked three times.
• Out: Raiders and Bears. The Raiders are 15th on the numbers: second in pass block win rate, but 3.0 yards a carry, a full yard below expectation. The Bears, ninth, allowed three sacks Thursday.
• First out: Bears, Falcons, Jaguars (left tackle Anton Harrison out for the season, per Prisco).
• Charting against results: Packers (last in pass block win rate but a 4.9% sack rate; 2.9 yards a carry) and Browns (30th; a 10.6% sack rate, the league’s worst, on a 5-2 team).
• Watch in Week 8: Green Bay’s centers Thursday, with Sean Rhyan and Jacob Monk hurt; the Chiefs’ tackles in Denver; Carolina without Taylor Moton.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Defensive Lines

The top two hold, the Browns return, and the Lions drop out. The same four measures apply: pass rush and run stop win rates, sacks against what opponents’ lines usually allow, and run defense against what those offenses usually gain, with injuries on top.

Sack rate is sacks per opponent dropback; in parentheses, the difference from what the same opponents’ lines allowed (positive is better). YPC allowed in parentheses is the difference from what those offenses gained (negative is better). Defensive DVOA is FTN’s through Week 7, rank in parentheses (FTN); negative is better, and it rates the whole defense, not only the line.

• Seahawks: held Kansas City to 50 rushing yards and 3 points, and now first in defensive DVOA. Seattle hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 36 games.
• Vikings: four sacks of Daniel Jones and the league’s highest sack rate, 10.6%. Minnesota blitzes heavily under Brian Flores, so some of that pressure is the coordinator’s.
• Browns: back in after two weeks held out. Mason Graham played Sunday, though Mike Hall Jr. was inactive again; first in run stop win rate.
• Falcons: down one. Two sacks of Brock Purdy and four takeaways, though San Francisco ran for 123.
• Texans: down one after allowing 188 rushing yards to the Giants, the most this season. Houston is 30th in success rate against the run (Bill Barnwell, ESPN).
• Chargers: held on a bye. Fourth in run stop win rate on an 0-6 team.
• Ravens: held. Trey Hendrickson had two quarterback hits and no sacks against his old team; Baltimore’s pressure has been fine, its coverage hasn’t (Solak).
• Broncos: held after three sacks and 12 quarterback hits in Arizona.
• Out: Lions. Ninth on the numbers and fourth in pass rush win rate, but one sack Sunday and 25th in defensive DVOA.
• First out: Lions, 49ers (Nick Bosa still out), Buccaneers (five sacks in Carolina; third in defensive DVOA).
• Giants: 18th on the numbers and third in pass rush win rate. Not restored on win rate alone.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Win Totals

The Giants take the NFC East from Dallas, and the Steelers move into the AFC field with the Ravens first out. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 106 wins and that tie banked through Week 7. Kansas City, first team out in August, now shares the AFC’s best projection with Buffalo.

• AFC seeds: Chiefs and Bills, then Bengals and Jaguars; wild cards Broncos, Patriots and Steelers; first out, the Ravens or Browns.
• NFC seeds: 49ers and Vikings, then Giants and Panthers; wild cards Bears, Seahawks and Lions; first out, the Cowboys, Rams or Packers.
• Ties we could not project: Kansas City and Buffalo for the AFC’s top seed; Cincinnati and Jacksonville for third; the order of the three AFC wild cards; the Ravens and Browns for first out; San Francisco and Minnesota for the NFC’s top seed; the Bears and Seahawks for fifth; and the Cowboys, Rams and Packers for first out.

What moved:

• Up: Bengals, Steelers, Browns, Giants, Falcons, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Dolphins, +1 each.
• Down: Ravens, 49ers, Chiefs, Texans, Panthers, Jets, Raiders and Eagles, -1 each.
• Giants 9-7-1: now the NFC East winner. At 4-2-1 they are more than two games clear of Dallas and Philadelphia (Barnwell), and the Cowboys need 6-4 the rest of the way to reach 9-8.
• Ravens 9-8: two straight division losses without Lamar Jackson, and FTN still gives them the hardest remaining schedule. Buffalo is next.

Calls most likely to need moving after Week 8:

• Ravens 9-8 at the Bills (12-5).
• Vikings 13-4 at the Lions (10-7).
• Browns 9-8 at the Steelers (10-7).
• Chiefs 12-5 at the Broncos (10-7).
• Panthers 9-8 at the Packers (9-8) on Thursday, and Bears 11-6 at the Seahawks (11-6) on Monday.

Week 8 Preview

The line and the model agree on every favorite this week. We go against both twice, in two close games: the Jets and the Broncos. Houston, New Orleans, the Giants and San Francisco are on bye.

Panthers at Packers (Thursday)

Line: Packers -3.5, 48.5 · ESPN: Packers 64.7%

Key to the Game: Which bad line holds up. Green Bay ranks 31st on our offensive line list and will be without centers Sean Rhyan (ankle) and Jacob Monk (quad), per Matt LaFleur (AP). Carolina ranks 30th on our defensive list, and its own line lost Taylor Moton after Bryce Young was sacked five times. Trey Smack missed twice from 35 or closer in Detroit.

Our Pick: Packers.

Falcons at Buccaneers

Line: Buccaneers -2.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Buccaneers 69.1%

Key to the Game: Tampa Bay’s run game, 258 yards on 49 carries in Carolina, against an Atlanta front that is third in run stop win rate and fourth on our defensive list. Michael Penix Jr. has stopped turning the ball over: no interceptions against San Francisco.

Our Pick: Buccaneers.

Cardinals at Cowboys

Line: Cowboys -6.5, 54.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 78.0%

Key to the Game: Dallas’ run game after 204 yards in Philadelphia, against an Arizona defense 29th in defensive DVOA. The Cowboys’ defensive line ranks 31st, and Trey McBride caught 10 passes against Denver, but Arizona scored one touchdown in five red-zone trips.

Our Pick: Cowboys.

Ravens at Bills

Line: Bills -3.5, 53.5 · ESPN: Bills 61.4%

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s ankle. He has missed three games, and Baltimore is 1-2 without him . Buffalo comes off its bye with our second-ranked offensive line, and Baltimore’s problem is coverage, not pressure (Solak).

Our Pick: Bills.

Browns at Steelers

Line: Steelers -3.5, 39.5 · ESPN: Steelers 65.7%

Key to the Game: First place in the AFC North; both teams are 5-2. Cleveland’s offensive line allows the league’s highest sack rate, 10.6%, and Deshaun Watson keeps winning late anyway. Pittsburgh has won three straight and ran for 148 in Paris.

Our Pick: Steelers.

Colts at Jaguars

Line: Jaguars -8.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 73.3%

Key to the Game: Daniel Jones, with four touchdown passes and seven interceptions; Shane Steichen says he isn’t considering a change (AP). Jacksonville comes off its bye without left tackle Anton Harrison (Prisco).

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Raiders at Jets

Line: Raiders -1.5, 45.5 · ESPN: Raiders 52.0%

Key to the Game: Two teams on losing streaks with questions above the field. Las Vegas has allowed 30-plus points four straight weeks (AP), and Barnwell asks whether it’s time for Fernando Mendoza. The Jets have lost two straight division games under Aaron Glenn.

Our Pick: Jets. Against a narrow line and model: the Jets are at home, and the Raiders have allowed 30-plus points four straight weeks.

Vikings at Lions

Line: Lions -3.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Lions 55.2%

Key to the Game: Minnesota’s defense, first in points allowed, against Jared Goff, whose 112.5 passer rating trails only one quarterback (Solak). The Vikings’ offense has 10 touchdowns in six games, and Detroit lost two fumbles against Green Bay after one turnover all season.

Our Pick: Lions. Low confidence: at home against an offense that hasn’t scored enough to test them.

Titans at Bengals

Line: Bengals -10, 46.5 · ESPN: Bengals 86.6%

Key to the Game: Joe Burrow after a perfect second half in Baltimore, against a Tennessee defense last in defensive DVOA. Tony Pollard ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns in Tennessee’s loss to Cleveland.

Our Pick: Bengals.

Chargers at Rams

Line: Rams -6.5, 44.5 · ESPN: Rams 73.9%

Key to the Game: The Rams’ run game, first in run block win rate, against a Chargers team off its bye at 0-6. Justin Herbert leads the league with eight interceptions.

Our Pick: Rams.

Chiefs at Broncos

Line: Chiefs -1.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 55.7%

Key to the Game: Kansas City’s offense after 3 points in Seattle. Rashee Rice could return (Solak), but the Chiefs’ tackles face a Denver rush that just had 12 quarterback hits. Denver has won three straight.

Our Pick: Broncos. Against the line and the model, both narrow: Kansas City scored 3 points without both starting tackles, and Denver’s rush just had 12 quarterback hits.

Patriots at Dolphins

Line: Patriots -7.5, 44.5 · ESPN: Patriots 79.7%

Key to the Game: Malik Willis and a Miami offense that went 3 for 3 in the red zone, against a Patriots defense Prisco says slipped in Chicago.

Our Pick: Patriots.

Eagles at Commanders (Sunday night)

Line: Commanders -5.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Commanders 64.1%

Key to the Game: Tanner McKee, on a five-game losing streak, against a Washington team off its bye and without Terry McLaurin. Philadelphia has allowed at least 375 yards in each loss (AP).

Our Pick: Commanders.

Bears at Seahawks (Monday)

Line: Seahawks -3, 46.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 54.7%

Key to the Game: Seattle’s front, first on our defensive list, against a Chicago line that just fell out of our top 8. Caleb Williams has back-to-back 300-yard games (AP); Seattle lost Rashid Shaheed (knee) and tackle Charles Cross (ankle) against Kansas City.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. The run game picked the winners. The team with more rushing yards won 11 of 14 games. Five teams ran for 180 or more (Tampa Bay 258, Dallas 204, the Rams 199, the Giants 188, Cleveland 183), and all five won, all on the road. The exceptions were Atlanta, Minnesota and Cincinnati, each of which won the turnover battle instead.

2. Kickers missed everywhere. The AP recaps list 13 missed field goals across Thursday and Sunday, from Trey Smack’s two short misses in Detroit to Harrison Butker’s 45-yarder in Seattle. Two of them decided games: Spencer Shrader’s 56-yard miss set up Minnesota’s only touchdown, and Smack’s 35-yarder, tipped by D.J. Wonnum, left Green Bay tied for Detroit’s last drive.

3. Double-digit leads didn’t hold. The 49ers led Atlanta 14-3, the Titans led Cleveland 14-0, and the Ravens led Cincinnati 13-0 at halftime. All three lost. Baltimore has now blown double-digit second-half leads in consecutive weeks.

The post 2026 NFL: Week 7 Review, Week 8 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The 49ers are 6-0 after holding off Washington on Monday night, and the Chiefs and Vikings are the only other unbeaten teams. Seven underdogs won outright, including Arizona at 12.5 points in Los Angeles and Tennessee at 7 in Indianapolis, for the Titans’ first win. Jalen Hurts is expected to miss the rest of the season with blood clots in his lungs, and the Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard.

FTN’s defensive DVOA returns to the defensive line table this week. The quarterback list returns after Week 8.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 6 Recap

Seven of 14 games went to the underdog outright, including Arizona at 12.5 points and Tennessee at 7.

Lines are the ones we published before each game.

Broncos 17, Seahawks 14 (OT, Thursday)

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 40.5 · Our pick: Seahawks

Expected: Both teams were on a short week. Seattle’s backfield had been fumbling, and Charbonnet was out. Denver was without Surtain and, we expected, Riley Moss.

What decided it: Denver’s pass rush, and Seattle’s quarterback giving the ball away. The Broncos sacked Sam Darnold five times and hit him 17 times, and forced three turnovers. Ja’Quan McMillian intercepted Darnold on Seattle’s first overtime possession, and Wil Lutz kicked the 53-yard winner. Seattle’s one fumble came from a receiver, not the backfield: Nik Bonitto punched the ball from Rashid Shaheed. Denver won with 168 yards to Seattle’s 353; Bo Nix went 17 of 27 for 107. Seattle scored the last 11 points of regulation and tied it on Jason Myers’ 34-yarder with 3 seconds left. Denver played without Surtain and safety Talanoa Hufanga, both inactive; Moss was not among the inactives.

Texans 34, Jaguars 31 (London)

Box score · Line: Jaguars -3, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: Jacksonville’s red zone after 0 for 3 against the Eagles, against DeMeco Ryans’ defense; Anton Harrison’s knee; Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Houston debut; David Montgomery’s groin.

What decided it: Jacksonville fixed its red zone, and Ryans’ defense still didn’t hold. Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdown passes, and Houston allowed 30 points for the third time this season in Ryans’ first game back calling the defense. The Texans didn’t sack Lawrence once. C.J. Stroud threw three touchdowns, two to Foster Moreau. A too-many-men penalty on a Houston punt, Jacksonville’s third straight week of costly flags, kept one scoring drive alive. Travis Hunter caught a touchdown and intercepted Stroud in the end zone, setting up Cam Little’s 60-yard tying field goal. Stroud answered with a drive to Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 49-yarder at the gun. Harrison caught three passes for 34 yards. With Montgomery inactive, Woody Marks ran for 56.

Bears 31, Falcons 23

Box score · Line: Bears -3, 49.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: Caleb Williams’ return and Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs; Atlanta’s run defense after Baltimore ran for 208. Flips if Williams sits or Penix plays.

What decided it: Williams. Penix played, so half our condition came true, but Williams more than offset it. He completed his first 12 passes and finished 30 of 36 for 305 yards, and Chicago held the ball for more than 40 minutes. Kyler Gordon, activated from the physically unable to perform list the day before, had three sacks and two forced fumbles, the last ending Atlanta’s comeback with 2:54 left. Rookie Zachariah Branch lost two fumbles on returns. Chicago led 31-7 before Penix’s late touchdowns. The Bears overcame 12 penalties for 133 yards.

Browns 13, Ravens 10

Box score · Line: Ravens -4.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Ravens

Expected: Lamar Jackson’s ankle; Cam Jurgens’ debut at center against Verse and possibly Mason Graham; Cleveland’s eight sacks allowed, Howard and Concepcion.

What decided it: Jackson didn’t play, and neither did Jurgens; Vega Ioane started at center for a third straight week. Baltimore led 10-0 in the first quarter on Tyler Huntley’s fourth-down touchdown pass to rookie tight end Josh Cuevas and a Tyler Loop field goal, then didn’t score again. Cleveland held Derrick Henry to 58 yards on 17 carries, and Carson Schwesinger forced his fumble at the Baltimore 35 with 12:45 left; Audric Estime scored the tying touchdown four minutes later. After going 1 for 9 on third down through three quarters, the Browns converted 5 of 8 in the fourth, and Andre Szmyt won it from 37 yards at the gun, after a Ravens block of his earlier try was wiped out by an offside penalty. Huntley finished 19 of 31 for 165 yards. Baltimore sacked Deshaun Watson five times, with Trey Hendrickson back from finger surgery, and the teams finished two yards apart, 237 to 235. (Our full review)

Titans 26, Colts 20

Box score · Line: Colts -7, 44.5 · Our pick: Colts

Expected: A Titans offense averaging 10.4 points against a Colts offense that settles for field goals.

What decided it: Both halves of that came true, and the Colts still lost. Indianapolis outgained Tennessee 232-64 in the first half but led only 13-0 after two field goals. The Titans’ offense scored one touchdown; defense and special teams did the rest. Jeffery Simmons forced a fumble on the first play of the second half. Chimere Dike’s 58-yard punt return set up the tying score, and Oluwafemi Oladejo returned a blocked punt for the lead. Joey Slye kicked four field goals. Daniel Jones threw two interceptions in scoring position. It was Robert Saleh’s first win in Tennessee, and the Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard on Monday.

Patriots 26, Jets 19

Box score · Line: Patriots -7, 43.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: Bailey and the eight-sack front against a line possibly without Will Campbell; A.J. Brown’s possible return; New England’s thin cornerbacks.

What decided it: The Jets’ pass rush didn’t show up, and their offense stalled near the goal line. A week after eight sacks, New York had none, even as New England lost Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown to injuries during the game. Christian Gonzalez returned at cornerback, and the Patriots held the Jets to 0 for 3 in the red zone. Charles Woods intercepted Geno Smith in the fourth quarter, Smith’s first of the season. Drake Maye threw three touchdown passes. Brown’s return was rough: three catches for 27 yards on 10 targets, with three drops.

Saints 34, Giants 27

Box score · Line: Giants -1.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: A Giants run defense allowing 5.19 a carry against a Saints offense held to 142 yards; New York’s kicking; Tyler Shough’s hand.

What decided it: One kickoff return. The Giants led 10-0 late in the first half. After Daniel Carlson’s 58-yard field goal, Isaiah Stalbird forced Charlie Jones to fumble the kickoff, and New Orleans scored 34 straight points. Martin Emerson intercepted Jameis Winston twice, and Winston was benched for J.J. McCarthy, whose fourth-down throw into the end zone fell incomplete in the final seconds. Shough threw three touchdown passes and ran for another; he says his broken hand affects only handoffs. Cam Skattebo didn’t get a carry, and the Giants’ backs totaled 34 yards. The model was right.

Panthers 25, Eagles 14

Box score · Line: Eagles -1.5, 41.5 · Our pick: Panthers

Expected: Carolina’s passing offense against an Eagles defense that fades late, behind an offense with the most three-and-outs; Ekwonu and Moton back.

What decided it: Both held, and Jalen Hurts’ absence made it easier. Philadelphia had 37 yards in the first quarter and punted on its first five drives, then was shut out in the third quarter; it has six third-quarter points all season. Carolina pulled away in the second half. Bryce Young threw for 281 yards and two touchdowns to Tommy Tremble, and Chuba Hubbard ran for 120, including a 19-yard run on fourth-and-1. Tanner McKee went 26 of 45 for 215 yards. Carolina won despite a franchise-record 13 penalties for 149 yards.

Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 (OT)

Box score · Line: Steelers -3, 40.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: Irving and a 241-yard run game against Pittsburgh’s run defense; Mayfield not back before Week 7.

What decided it: Pittsburgh took away the run, and Tampa Bay’s rookie quarterback couldn’t make up for it. With no ground game, Jalon Daniels dropped back about 50 times in his third start, went 22 of 43 for 164 yards and was sacked six times. His two fourth-quarter interceptions set up field goals as Pittsburgh came back from 16-3. Aaron Rodgers, sacked five times through three quarters, led four fourth-quarter scoring drives and threw the winner to rookie Germie Bernard with 3:15 left in overtime. That touchdown tied him with Peyton Manning for third all time. Jalen Ramsey’s fourth-down sack ended it.

Cardinals 18, Rams 16

Box score · Line: Rams -12.5, 52.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: Arizona’s league-worst 8.5 net yards per pass allowed; the Rams’ kicking.

What decided it: The Rams’ kicking, though not the way we expected. New kicker Blake Grupe hurt his knee making a tackle on a first-quarter kickoff, which left the Rams going for two (they failed) and their punter kicking an extra point. The pass defense we worried about held Los Angeles to 286 yards, much of it by attacking the left side with Alaric Jackson suspended. The Rams didn’t sack Jacoby Brissett on 35 dropbacks and failed twice on fourth down. Matthew Stafford’s touchdown with 47 seconds left put them ahead. A long completion and an unnecessary-roughness penalty set up Chad Ryland’s sixth field goal at the gun.

Chiefs 22, Chargers 6

Box score · Line: Chiefs -8.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Chiefs

Expected: A pass rush that pressures without finishing, against four rookie linemen; Herbert’s turnovers.

What decided it: Kenneth Walker ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers, without Joe Alt, Kayode Awosika and Tre’ Harris, managed two field goals and 259 yards and lost Ladd McConkey to a concussion. Justin Herbert threw his league-leading eighth interception. The Kansas City pass rush finally finished, with four sacks to end a three-game sackless streak. Harrison Butker missed an extra point and a field goal. The Chiefs are 5-0; the Chargers are 0-6 heading into their bye.

Bills 33, Raiders 30

Box score · Line: Bills -6, 52.5 · Our pick: Bills

Expected: A Raiders run game held to 38 yards in New England; Buffalo’s thin cornerbacks; Spencer Brown’s back.

What decided it: Both concerns showed up, and Buffalo’s offense covered for them. Ashton Jeanty ran 10 times for 22 yards, but Kirk Cousins threw for 313 against the Bills’ secondary, and Las Vegas tied it at 23 with 8:07 left. Buffalo answered with a 66-yard drive capped by James Cook’s 3-yard run. Cook ran for 95 yards without a fumble, and the Bills had their first turnover-free game in a month. Josh Allen’s shovel pass to Keon Coleman tied Jim Kelly’s franchise touchdown record. The Raiders scored touchdowns on two of five red-zone trips.

Packers 23, Cowboys 13

Box score · Line: Packers -1.5, 52.5 · Our pick: Packers

Expected: Love’s deep ball against a Dallas defense allowing 72.3% completions and last against the run; no Parsons; Lamb’s quadriceps.

What decided it: Third downs, and Dak Prescott’s interceptions. Green Bay came in last in third-down conversions and Dallas last in third-down defense; the Packers converted nine of their first 10. Evan Williams and rookie Brandon Cisse intercepted Prescott on consecutive possessions inside the Green Bay 30, the second when Lamb slipped. Green Bay led 17-0 at half. Jordan Love threw for 276 yards and ran for a touchdown, and receivers dropped three more potential scores. The line was right.

49ers 23, Commanders 17 (Monday)

Box score · Line: 49ers -7.5, 50.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: Daniels’ scrambling against the defense that sacked Darnold five times; Washington’s second-half defense; Deebo Samuel’s hamstring.

What decided it: San Francisco’s first half, and Washington’s second-half defense, which held this time. The 49ers scored touchdowns on their first two drives, led 20-3 at half and outgained Washington 303-90 before the break. Brock Purdy went 21 of 29 for 264 yards, with a touchdown to George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey ran for two. After halftime San Francisco managed three first downs and 72 yards, and Jayden Daniels threw two touchdown passes to make it 23-17. Malik Mustapha broke up a fourth-down pass to Treylon Burks near the goal line with 1:54 left, and Washington’s last drive ended with an intentional grounding and a sack. Purdy passed 1,500 attempts and became the highest-rated passer in NFL history. With Deebo Samuel out, Mike Evans caught three passes for 94 yards before leaving with Achilles tendinitis; Terry McLaurin was carted off with a knee injury.

Power Rankings

The top two hold. The biggest moves are the Rams (down 6) and the Falcons (down 5), and the Browns (up 5). Our line rankings count here: both Rams lines rank in our top 11, which keeps a 2-4 team at 14, while both Packers lines rank in the bottom four, which holds a 4-2 team behind them.

DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 6. Outside rankings: ESPN, NFL.com and Pete Prisco, CBS Sports.

1. 49ers (1). 6-0, first in all four lists, and Brock Purdy is now the highest-rated passer in NFL history. They were held to 72 yards after halftime Monday, and Mike Evans left with Achilles tendinitis.
2. Chiefs (2). Kenneth Walker ran for 128 yards and the pass rush finally finished, with four sacks. Our second offensive line, but both starting tackles are hurt going to Seattle.
3. Bills (4). Up one. Seven scores on nine full drives in Las Vegas and their first turnover-free game in a month, behind our top offensive line. The defense has allowed 64 points in two weeks (Prisco).
4. Vikings (7). Up three on a bye at 5-0, now sixth in DVOA. Second on our defensive line list, 21st on offense.
5. Jaguars (3). Down two after losing in London. Still third in DVOA, but penalties have now cost them three touchdowns this season (Michael DiRocco, ESPN).
6. Patriots (9). Up three after a third straight win, but they finished Sunday without three offensive linemen and play Thursday in Chicago.
7. Broncos (11). Up four. Five sacks and three takeaways beat Seattle, and the offense is 31st on third down (ESPN).
8. Seahawks (5). Down three after a second loss in five days. Our top defensive line, but Sam Darnold has thrown seven interceptions in four games (Brady Henderson, ESPN).
9. Bears (13). Up four. Caleb Williams went 30 of 36 in his return, and Kyler Gordon had three sacks off the physically unable to perform list.
10. Ravens (6). Down four. Ten points in Cleveland without Lamar Jackson, and FTN gives them the hardest remaining schedule in the league.
11. Bengals (12). Up one on a bye. Fifth in DVOA and fifth on our offensive line list.
12. Lions (10). Down two on a bye, with both lines in our top 11. The defense is still the problem: 25th in defensive DVOA.
13. Panthers (16). Up three. Bryce Young and Chuba Hubbard beat a Hurts-less Eagles team, and Carolina is seventh in DVOA, though its defensive line is 30th.
14. Rams (8). Down six after losing at home to Arizona as 12.5-point favorites. Both lines rank in our top 11, which keeps them here, but Davante Adams is expected to miss 6 to 10 weeks (Prisco) and their new kicker hurt his knee.
15. Packers (17). Up two after a third straight win, allowing 14 points or fewer in each. Both lines rank in the bottom four, which holds them behind the Rams.
16. Texans (20). Up four. C.J. Stroud’s London drive kept them alive at 2-4; ninth in DVOA and fourth on our defensive line list.
17. Steelers (14). Down three despite winning: Aaron Rodgers was sacked five times in three quarters in Tampa before his late rally.
18. Browns (23). Up five. First place in the AFC North at 4-2 on Deshaun Watson’s fourth game-winning drive, behind our last-ranked offensive line.
19. Raiders (19). Held after a third straight loss. The line is back in our top 8; the run game isn’t.
20. Falcons (15). Down five. Down 31-7 at home to Chicago, with two lost return fumbles; third on our defensive line list.
21. Cowboys (18). Down three. Two more Dak Prescott interceptions, and the worst rushing start since 1989 (Todd Archer, ESPN).
22. Giants (21). Down one after blowing a 10-0 lead. John Harbaugh hasn’t named a starter between Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy.
23. Jets (26). Up three, mostly as others fell. Zero sacks a week after eight, and 0 for 3 in the red zone.
24. Buccaneers (25). Up one after another one-score loss, their fifth. Sixteenth in DVOA.
25. Eagles (22). Down three. Jalen Hurts is out for the season, and they have lost four straight.
26. Cardinals (29). Up three. Six Chad Ryland field goals beat the Rams in Los Angeles.
27. Saints (27). Held. Won in New York but nearly gave back a 24-point lead.
28. Colts (24). Down four. Lost at home to the winless Titans, and the general manager was fired Monday. Their defensive line ranks last.
29. Commanders (28). Down one. Came back to within six in San Francisco after trailing 20-3, and lost Terry McLaurin to what they fear is a significant knee injury.
30. Titans (31). Up one with their first win: six sacks, three takeaways and two special teams scores.
31. Chargers (30). Down one. 0-6 into the bye, with Justin Herbert’s league-high eighth interception.
32. Dolphins (32). Held. Bye, and still winless.

Offensive Lines

The Bills hold No. 1, the Chiefs pass the 49ers, and the Raiders return. The Lions drop out after their bye, and the Patriots are held out again, now for more than one injury. Each line is judged on the season: ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, sacks allowed and rushing, both measured against what its opponents’ defenses usually allow, and injuries that change who is available. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 6, rank in parentheses (ESPN). Sack rate is sacks per dropback; the figure in parentheses is the difference from what the same opponents’ defenses averaged (negative is better). YPC in parentheses is the difference from what those defenses allowed (positive is better). Opponent averages are from CBS Sports team stats and the Week 6 box scores, and include each opponent’s game against that team.

• Bills: second in run block win rate and third in pass block, and the second-best run game against expectation. Spencer Brown played through his back in Las Vegas.
• Chiefs: up one, with the best yards per carry in the league and a sack rate two points under what their opponents allow. Both starting tackles are the worry: Josh Simmons has a bulging disk and Jaylon Moore left Sunday with a concussion, and Andy Reid suggested Simmons won’t be ready for Seattle (Nate Taylor, ESPN).
• 49ers: second in pass block win rate and a 2.8% sack rate; down one only because Kansas City ran for 150 on Sunday.
• Rams: held, though Arizona went after backup left tackle David Quessenberry with Alaric Jackson suspended.
• Bengals: first in run block win rate, but 3.6 yards a carry is barely above what their opponents allow.
• Raiders: back in. First in pass block win rate with a low sack rate, but still 3.0 yards a carry, nearly a yard below expectation. Caleb Rogers replaced Jackson Powers-Johnson at right guard (Ryan McFadden, ESPN).
• Bears: down two after four sacks allowed in Atlanta; right guard Jonah Jackson left with a hip injury.
• Steelers: down one after five sacks allowed in Tampa.
• Out: Lions. Eleventh on the numbers, on bye.
• Held out by injury: Patriots, fifth on the numbers. Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown all left Sunday, after Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten went to injured reserve and with Will Campbell’s knee; New England has started three line combinations in six games and is likely to start a fourth Thursday (Mike Reiss, ESPN).
• First out: Patriots, Colts, Lions.
• Charting against results: Cowboys (2.8% sack rate, but 31st in run block win rate) and Browns (last; a 12.1% sack rate, the worst in the league).
• Watch in Week 7: the Chiefs’ tackles against Seattle’s front, first on our defensive list; the Patriots’ line on a short week; the length of Jackson’s suspension.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Defensive Lines

The top two hold, the Falcons climb, the Ravens return and the 49ers drop out. The same four measures apply: pass rush and run stop win rates, sacks against what opponents’ lines usually allow, and run defense against what those offenses usually gain, with injuries on top. FTN’s defensive DVOA is back in the table.

Sack rate is sacks per opponent dropback; in parentheses, the difference from what the same opponents’ lines allowed (positive is better). YPC allowed in parentheses is the difference from what those offenses gained (negative is better). Defensive DVOA is FTN’s through Week 6, rank in parentheses (FTN); negative is better, and it rates the whole defense, not only the line.

• Seahawks: first in pass rush win rate and a sack rate 2.5 points above expectation. The offense, not the front, lost in Denver.
• Vikings: bye. Minnesota blitzes on 68% of dropbacks, so some of its pressure is the coordinator’s.
• Falcons: up two, second in run stop win rate. Linebackers Kendal Daniels (neck) and Divine Deablo (arm) were hurt Sunday; neither is a lineman, but both play behind this front.
• Texans: down one after London, where they didn’t sack Trevor Lawrence (Lindsay Jones, the Ringer).
• Lions: bye; third in pass rush win rate. Detroit’s poor defensive DVOA is the secondary, not the front.
• Chargers: held. Third in run stop win rate on an 0-6 team; Bud Dupree (neck) was inactive.
• Ravens: back in, tenth and ninth in the win rates and above expectation on sacks.
• Broncos: held after five sacks and 17 quarterback hits Thursday (AP), without Pat Surtain II behind them.
• Out: 49ers. Tenth on the numbers, with Nick Bosa still out.
• Held out by injury: Browns, fifth on the numbers. Mason Graham has missed two straight games and Mike Hall Jr. was inactive again, though Maliek Collins has a sack in three straight (Daniel Oyefusi, ESPN).
• First out: Browns, 49ers, Rams (Myles Garrett still on injured reserve, and Kobie Turner and Poona Ford hurt Sunday).
• Giants: 27th on the numbers. Not restored on win rate alone.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Win Totals

The Bears move into the NFC field outright and the Rams drop to first out; the Ravens no longer win the AFC North alone. Dallas keeps the NFC East at 9-8. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 92 wins and that tie banked through Week 6. Kansas City, first team out in August, is still the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

• AFC seeds: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, then the AFC North winner; wild cards Patriots, Broncos and the AFC North runner-up; first out, the Steelers or Texans.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys; wild cards Bears, then the Lions and Seahawks; first out, the Rams or Packers.
• Ties we could not project: Baltimore and Cincinnati for the North; the order of the three AFC wild cards; the Lions and Seahawks for the sixth and seventh seeds; the Steelers and Texans, and the Rams and Packers, for first out.

What moved:

• Up: Texans +2 (two straight division wins, ninth in DVOA and fifth in FTN’s DAVE); Bears, Packers, Browns, Titans, Saints and Cardinals +1.
• Down: Eagles -1 (Jalen Hurts out for the season); Rams -1 (Davante Adams expected out 6 to 10 weeks, per Prisco); Ravens, Jaguars, Seahawks, Colts, Falcons and Chargers -1.
• Cowboys 9-8: held, and still the NFC East winner. ESPN’s Football Power Index makes Dallas a 66.9% favorite for the division at 2-4 (Ben Solak, ESPN).
• Ravens 10-7: depends on Lamar Jackson’s ankle, against the toughest remaining schedule by DVOA (FTN).

Calls most likely to need moving after Week 7:

• Bears 11-6 against the Patriots (10-7) on Thursday.
• Ravens 10-7 against the Bengals (10-7), with Jackson’s status unsettled.
• Seahawks 10-7 against the Chiefs on Sunday night.
• Lions 10-7 against the Packers (9-8).
• Browns 8-9 at Tennessee, and Rams 9-8 at Las Vegas (8-9).

Week 7 Preview

The line and the model split on three games; we take the line twice (Browns, Ravens) and the model once (Chiefs). Jacksonville, Buffalo, the Chargers and Washington are on bye.

Patriots at Bears (Thursday)

Line: Bears -3, 50.5 · ESPN: Bears 58.9%

Key to the Game: New England’s offensive line on a short week. Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown all left Sunday’s win with injuries, and Romeo Doubs left with a shoulder injury. Chicago’s defense just got Kyler Gordon back, and his nickel blitz produced three sacks in 16 snaps. On the other side, Caleb Williams is 54 of 60 on throws of 10 or fewer air yards this season (the Ringer), against a Patriots secondary with Christian Gonzalez back.

Our Pick: Bears.

Steelers vs. Saints (Paris)

Line: Steelers -3, 44.5 · ESPN: Steelers 60.1%

Key to the Game: Whether New Orleans can play four quarters. The Saints scored on five straight possessions against the Giants, then nearly gave back a 24-point lead. Pittsburgh is without receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson, so Aaron Rodgers is leaning on DK Metcalf and rookie Germie Bernard. Tyler Shough is playing through a broken nonthrowing hand, and right guard Cesar Ruiz left Sunday with a knee injury.

Our Pick: Steelers.

49ers at Falcons

Line: 49ers -4.5, 50.5 · ESPN: 49ers 79.4%

Key to the Game: Atlanta’s front against a 49ers team coming off Monday night. Michael Penix Jr. was pressured on 46% of his dropbacks against Chicago, and the Falcons lost linebackers Kendal Daniels (neck) and Divine Deablo (arm) during the game. San Francisco is thin at receiver: Mike Evans left Monday with Achilles tendinitis, with Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk already out (CBS Sports). The model is far more confident than the line, giving San Francisco about what it gave New England at -7 last week.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Browns at Titans

Line: Browns -1.5, 38.5 · ESPN: Titans 50.0%

Key to the Game: Tennessee’s defense against a Browns offense that wins late. The Titans had six sacks and three takeaways against Indianapolis, and Jeffery Simmons forced a fumble and had two sacks. Cleveland scored 13 points against Baltimore and won on Deshaun Watson’s fourth game-winning drive of the season. Mason Graham has missed two games; Maliek Collins has a sack in three straight.

Our Pick: Browns. The line over the model: ESPN calls it a coin flip, and Tennessee’s offense scored one touchdown last week.

Colts at Vikings

Line: Vikings -5.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Vikings 64.9%

Key to the Game: Daniel Jones’ turnovers. He is tied for the league lead with nine (ESPN), and two came in scoring position against Tennessee. Minnesota comes off its bye at 5-0, with a defense that blitzes on 68% of dropbacks. The Colts lost Sauce Gardner to a calf injury, played without Tyler Warren and fired their general manager on Monday.

Our Pick: Vikings.

Dolphins at Jets

Line: Jets -4.5, 38.5 · ESPN: Jets 65.5%

Key to the Game: The Jets’ red zone. New York went 0 for 3 inside the 20 against New England and has 112 points in six games. Miami is 0-5 and comes off its bye. A week after eight sacks, the Jets’ pass rush had none.

Our Pick: Jets.

Buccaneers at Panthers

Line: Panthers -3, 44.5 · ESPN: Panthers 63.2%

Key to the Game: Tampa Bay’s run game, which ranks 26th in success rate (the Ringer), against a Carolina offense that ran for 120 with Chuba Hubbard. Without a ground game, Jalon Daniels dropped back about 50 times in Tampa. Baker Mayfield’s thumb is the question to watch. Carolina needs to cut its 13 penalties, and Jaelan Phillips aggravated a hamstring injury.

Our Pick: Panthers.

Bengals at Ravens

Line: Ravens -3, 51.5 · ESPN: Bengals 54.3%

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s ankle. Without him, Baltimore scored 10 points in Cleveland, and Tyler Huntley went 13 of 24 for 107 yards over the last three quarters. Cincinnati comes off its bye, and Derrick Henry has fumbled four times since the start of last season (ESPN).

Our Pick: Ravens. The line over the model: the pick assumes Jackson plays, and flips to Cincinnati if he sits.

Giants at Texans

Line: Texans -10, 42.5 · ESPN: Texans 84.7%

Key to the Game: The Giants’ quarterback. John Harbaugh hasn’t said whether Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy starts after McCarthy threw for 243 yards in the fourth quarter. The Giants have fumbled in every game. C.J. Stroud now has Marvin Harrison Jr. alongside Jaylin Noel and Nico Collins, against a Giants secondary that lost Greg Newsome to a concussion.

Our Pick: Texans.

Broncos at Cardinals

Line: Broncos -4.5, 43.5 · ESPN: Broncos 69.8%

Key to the Game: Denver’s offense. The Broncos rank 26th in scoring and 31st on third down, and went 3 of 26 on third down across their last two games (ESPN). Arizona leads the league with seven fourth-down stops and just held the Rams to 286 yards. Jeremiyah Love (ankle) is the Arizona injury to watch.

Our Pick: Broncos. Denver’s defense has carried an offense that can’t move the ball, and Arizona’s defense just showed it can.

Packers at Lions

Line: Lions -3, 52.5 · ESPN: Lions 59.2%

Key to the Game: Detroit’s defense, worst in the league in EPA per drive allowed (the Ringer), against a Packers offense that dropped three potential touchdowns Sunday. Josh Jacobs comes off the commissioner’s exempt list. Green Bay has allowed 14 points or fewer in three straight games, and Detroit comes off its bye.

Our Pick: Lions. We are taking the home team off a bye, not a judgment that Detroit’s defense has been fixed.

Rams at Raiders

Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Rams 66.5%

Key to the Game: The Rams’ kicking again. Blake Grupe hurt his knee in his debut, five days after Harrison Mevis was cut. Their pass rush converts pressure into sacks at the second-worst rate in the league (Bill Barnwell, ESPN). Davante Adams is expected to miss 6 to 10 weeks (Pete Prisco, CBS Sports). Ashton Jeanty has been held under 3.0 yards a carry in four of six games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Chiefs at Seahawks

Line: Seahawks -2.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 52.2%

Key to the Game: Seattle’s protection. Denver hit Sam Darnold 17 times and sacked him five times, and Mike Macdonald said afterward his quarterback is getting hit far too often. Kansas City may start two undrafted rookie tackles, with Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore hurt (Nate Taylor, ESPN), against the front that tops our defensive line list. Kansas City’s pass rush ended its sackless streak with four against the Chargers, and Kenneth Walker leads the league in rushing. Seattle has had 10 days since Thursday.

Our Pick: Chiefs. The model over the line: Kansas City is 5-0 and Seattle has lost two straight, though Seattle’s defensive line was first on our list last week.

Cowboys at Eagles (Monday)

Line: Cowboys -4.5, 44.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 68.8%

Key to the Game: Tanner McKee. With Jalen Hurts expected to miss the season, McKee was pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks against Carolina. The Eagles have scored six third-quarter points all season. Dallas needs Dak Prescott to stop throwing interceptions: two more Sunday, after two in the second half of Week 5.

Our Pick: Cowboys.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. Backups went 0-4. Four backup quarterbacks started Sunday, and all four lost (the Ringer): Jalon Daniels in Tampa Bay, Tanner McKee in Philadelphia, Tyler Huntley in Baltimore and Jameis Winston for the Giants. Winston was the only one benched. With Hurts out for the season, Mayfield’s thumb unresolved and Jackson’s ankle still a question, at least three of those teams could start backups again in Week 7.

2. Penalties piled up on the winners. Carolina was flagged 13 times for 149 yards, a franchise record, and still won by 11. Chicago won through 12 penalties for 133 yards. Green Bay and Dallas combined for 22. Jacksonville’s too-many-men penalty on a punt extended a Houston touchdown drive, its third straight week of costly flags.

3. Winning without the offense. Arizona beat the Rams without a touchdown, on six Chad Ryland field goals. Tennessee’s offense scored one touchdown in a 26-point game. Denver won with 168 yards, its first win under 175 yards since 1983 (CBS Sports). All three leaned on defenses that forced turnovers or fourth-down stops.

The post 2026 NFL: Week 6 Review, Week 7 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The 49ers are 5-0 after winning in Seattle, and no NFC East team won a game. Washington and the Giants tied 27-27 when the Commanders ran out the clock in field-goal range. The Eagles lost in London on a 57-yard kick after a kickoff Nick Sirianni said he should not have allowed. Dallas lost at home to a one-win team quarterbacked by an undrafted rookie.

The Vikings are also 5-0, and still seventh in DVOA. The Chargers, Titans and Dolphins are 0-5.

Two changes start this week. The line lists are now weekly and judged against what each opponent usually allows. The win totals now republish every week.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 5 Recap

Lines are the ones we published before each game.

Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16 (Thursday)

Box score · Line: Cowboys -8.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: Jalon Daniels’ second start, on a short week, against DVOA’s last-ranked defense, with Tyler Smith eligible to return.

What decided it: The matchup we named, but on the ground. Tampa Bay ran 39 times for 241 yards, 165 of them from Bucky Irving, whose 72-yard run on the first play of the second half set up the go-ahead touchdown. Daniels went 19 of 25 for 189 yards with no turnovers. Dallas gave the ball away three times: two Dak Prescott interceptions and a KaVontae Turpin fumble on a kickoff. Joey Porter Jr. was a late scratch.

Jaguars 19, Eagles 17 (London)

Box score · Line: Jaguars -6.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: An Eagles offense with no second-half points in two weeks against a defense third in DVOA with a nine-game interception streak, with Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson’s statuses to settle.

What decided it: A kickoff. Jake Elliott put Philadelphia ahead 17-16 from 48 yards with eight seconds left. The Eagles kicked a returnable ball, Ameer Abdullah brought it back 53 yards with a second left, and Cam Little made a 57-yarder as time expired. Sirianni said afterward that the decision cost his team the game.

Barkley and Smith were out, Johnson had retired, center Cam Jurgens had been traded and Drew Kendall was hurt. The Eagles ran 18 times for 22 yards. Jacksonville kept them close by going 0 for 3 in the red zone, missing an extra point with a backup long snapper and taking 13 penalties for 100 yards. The interception streak ended at nine games.

Bengals 31, Dolphins 24

Box score · Line: Bengals -7, 42.5 · Our pick: Bengals

Expected: Whether Ja’Marr Chase cleared the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins was available, and Miami’s pass rush after its first four sacks.

What decided it: Chase cleared and caught six passes for 77 yards, including a one-handed 45-yard touchdown. Joe Burrow threw four touchdown passes, and Jordan Battle intercepted Malik Willis on back-to-back second-quarter drives. Miami ran 34 times for 217 yards, but it did not sack Burrow.

Packers 31, Bears 7

Box score · Line: Bears -3, 45.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: The league’s best rushing offense against a defense without Edgerrin Cooper, and whether Green Bay’s protection in Tampa was real.

What decided it: The protection was real, and the run game wasn’t there. Without Kyle Monangai, Chicago ran 24 times for 81 yards. Jordan Love went 25 of 31 for 367 yards, with Christian Watson catching 143 yards and two touchdowns and Matthew Golden adding 123. The Bears turned the ball over five times, including on four straight second-half possessions.

Jets 17, Browns 12

Box score · Line: Jets -2.5, 39.5 · Our pick: Browns

Expected: Cleveland’s five-man pressure and man coverage against an offense that ran 32 plays a week earlier, and Mason Graham’s knee.

What decided it: The pressure, from the other side. The Jets sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, three by rookie David Bailey, and Graham was inactive. With Cleveland up 12-10, a high snap went through punter Corey Bojorquez’s hands in the rain. Braelon Allen scored from 22 yards three plays later, and Will McDonald’s strip-sack on fourth down ended it.

Texans 26, Titans 3

Box score · Line: Texans -6.5, 38.5 · Our pick: Texans

Expected: Houston’s secondary after two blown two-score leads, and Tennessee’s three straight close losses.

What decided it: Neither; it was never close. In DeMeco Ryans’ first game back calling the defense, Houston held Tennessee to 187 yards. Will Anderson Jr. had three of the four sacks, and two early turnovers became field goals. C.J. Stroud threw for 261 yards and a touchdown and ran for another.

Steelers 34, Colts 22

Box score · Line: Steelers -2.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: Daniel Jones’ turnovers against a defense missing Derrick Harmon and possibly Jamel Dean, and Pittsburgh’s rest against the Colts’ trip back from London.

What decided it: Jaylen Warren. Jones did not turn the ball over, but Warren had 188 total yards, including an 80-yard catch-and-run and a 50-yard touchdown run. Harmon and Dean were both out, and the Colts still ran 24 times for 66 yards. Spencer Shrader kicked five field goals as Indianapolis stalled in Pittsburgh territory.

Patriots 45, Raiders 17

Box score · Line: Patriots -3.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: The top pass-blocking line against the seventh-ranked pass rush, the Raiders’ run game with Ashton Jeanty’s ankle, and an early kickoff in the east.

What decided it: New England’s protection, not Las Vegas’. Drake Maye was sacked once and went 26 of 34 for 374 yards and four touchdowns, and ran for a fifth. The Patriots gained 536 yards. The Raiders ran 18 times for 38 yards, and Fernando Mendoza made his debut in the fourth quarter.

Vikings 23, Saints 13

Box score · Line: Vikings -1.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Vikings

Expected: DVOA’s 31st offense against its 31st defense, Justin Jefferson’s ankle, and the Saints’ run defense.

What decided it: Minnesota’s defense, which held New Orleans to 142 yards. Jefferson returned and caught a 15-yard touchdown after the Saints fumbled the second-half kickoff. The Vikings ran 36 times for 153 yards, and Will Reichard made all three of his field goals from 40 yards or more.

Giants 27, Commanders 27 (OT)

Box score · Line: Commanders -3.5, 43.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: Washington’s quarterback, with Jayden Daniels’ return unconfirmed, Marcus Mariota hurt and Athan Kaliakmanis next.

What decided it: Nothing did, though both teams had it won. Daniels returned in an elbow brace, ran for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns, and put Washington up 27-13 in the fourth quarter. Jameis Winston answered with two 17-yard touchdown passes, the second to Malik Nabers with 1:43 left. In overtime Cam Skattebo fumbled in field-goal range. Daniels then went down at the Giants’ 24 with 12 seconds left and no timeouts, and the clock ran out before Washington could spike it. Dominic Zvada made two of five field goals for New York.

Broncos 23, Chargers 17

Box score · Line: Broncos -3.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: A Chargers line 30th in pass block, possibly without Joe Alt, against Denver’s front, and Denver’s injured cornerbacks.

What decided it: The matchup we named. Alt and Rashawn Slater were out, four rookies started on the line, and Justin Herbert was sacked five times. Jim Harbaugh’s failed fourth-and-1 early in the fourth quarter led to the tying touchdown. Zach Allen’s strip-sack then set up Wil Lutz’s go-ahead field goal. Denver won without Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, in Sean Payton’s first game back calling plays.

Lions 45, Cardinals 21

Box score · Line: Lions -4.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: The league’s worst scoring defense against Jacoby Brissett after three interceptions.

What decided it: Detroit’s defense, which held an opponent under 30 points for the first time this season. After Arizona’s opening touchdown the Lions had five sacks and held the Cardinals to 18 carries for 56 yards. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Marvin Harrison Jr. was inactive ahead of his trade to Houston.

49ers 32, Seahawks 29

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 47.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: The line that had not allowed a sack against the pass rush that is first in win rate.

What decided it: San Francisco’s defense, more than its line. The streak ended, with Brock Purdy sacked three times. But the 49ers sacked Sam Darnold five times without Nick Bosa. Renardo Green intercepted him twice, and Gracen Halton returned a fumble for a touchdown at the end of the first half. Purdy led two fourth-quarter scoring drives, Mike Evans caught 113 yards, and Eddy Pineiro won it from 43 yards with 1:56 left.

Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT)

Box score · Line: Falcons -3, 43.5 · Our pick: Falcons

Expected: Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and Baltimore’s fourth center against the third-ranked pass rush.

What decided it: Jackson didn’t play, and Baltimore won by running the ball. Behind Tyler Huntley, the Ravens ran 35 times for 208 yards against the league’s best run defense, with Derrick Henry gaining 102 and Justice Hill 73 on four carries. Down 23-15 with 2:31 left, Huntley drove them to a touchdown with 40 seconds left, and Henry ran in the two-point try. Huntley scored from the 1 in overtime, and Kyle Hamilton intercepted Tua Tagovailoa, in for the injured Michael Penix Jr.

Bills 37, Rams 34 (OT, Monday)

Box score · Line: Rams -2.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: Two top-five quarterbacks who had been loose with the ball, Buffalo’s 26th-ranked defense without Ed Oliver, and Aaron Donald’s possible return.

What decided it: Special teams. Donald played and recovered James Cook’s fumble early in overtime, but Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis’ field goal. Josh Allen then scrambled for 19 and 13 yards, and Tyler Bass won it from 45 with 1:55 left. Allen ran for 121 of his 331 total yards, and Buffalo rushed for 234. Sean McVay said the kicking units cost the Rams the game.

Power Rankings

The Jaguars move ahead of the Seahawks, as we said they might after San Francisco at Seattle and the London game. From this week our offensive and defensive line rankings are a factor here: they move the Lions, Falcons and Texans up and the Packers, Panthers and Cowboys down. The biggest moves are the Packers (up 8), Patriots and Steelers (up 7) and Raiders (down 8).

DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 5. Outside rankings: ESPN, Nate Davis, USA Today and Pete Prisco, CBS Sports. USA Today stands in for NFL.com, whose rankings were not up at build time.

1. 49ers (1). Five sacks, a defensive touchdown and two interceptions won in Seattle without Nick Bosa. DVOA has them first by 22 points.
2. Chiefs (2). Bye. The winless Chargers come to Kansas City; the offensive line is third in our rankings, the defensive line 28th.
3. Jaguars (4). Up one, past Seattle, as flagged last week. DVOA has had them second for two weeks, though London was sloppy: 0 for 3 in the red zone and 13 penalties.
4. Bills (5). Won a shootout with the Rams in overtime without DJ Moore or Ed Oliver. Josh Allen ran for 121 yards, behind our top-ranked offensive line.
5. Seahawks (3). Down two after losing at home to the 49ers, with two Sam Darnold interceptions and more running-back fumbles. Still our top defensive line.
6. Ravens (6). Held. Won in Atlanta with Tyler Huntley and a 208-yard run game, and lead the AFC North alone.
7. Vikings (9). Up two at 5-0. The defense allows the fewest points in the league; DVOA still has them only seventh.
8. Rams (7). Down one. A 2-3 team that DVOA has 10th, beaten in overtime by its kicking game: Harrison Mevis has missed three field goals.
9. Patriots (16). Up seven. Drake Maye has eight touchdowns and two turnovers in two weeks, after one touchdown and seven turnovers in his first three games (CBS Sports).
10. Lions (14). Up four. Both lines rank in our top 10, the defense held an opponent under 30 for the first time, and Jared Goff has 13 touchdowns and no turnovers (USA Today).
11. Broncos (10). Down one, only because Detroit passes them. Five sacks and three takeaways won in Los Angeles.
12. Bengals (13). Up one. Fifth in DVOA, but they let Miami run for 217 yards before the bye.
13. Bears (8). Down five after five turnovers in Green Bay. Caleb Williams is back at practice.
14. Steelers (21). Up seven. Jaylen Warren has carried the offense since Rico Dowdle’s injury, behind a line that entered our top 8.
15. Falcons (18). Up three. Lost in overtime, but both lines rank in our top 10. Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs decide the next few weeks.
16. Panthers (15). Down one. Ninth in DVOA and atop the NFC South, but their defensive line ranks 30th.
17. Packers (25). Up eight. Jordan Love threw for 367 yards, but both lines rank in the bottom six, and Javon Hargrave’s Achilles is the second season-ending injury in the front seven in two weeks.
18. Cowboys (12). Down six after losing at home to Tampa Bay. Their defensive line ranks last, and the defense has five sacks and no interceptions this season.
19. Raiders (11). Down eight. Two straight losses since a 3-0 start, and 25th in DVOA.
20. Texans (23). Up three. Eleventh in DVOA at 1-4, with our third-ranked defensive line, and they added Marvin Harrison Jr.
21. Giants (20). Down one. They lead the NFC East at 3-1-1, but DVOA has them 27th.
22. Eagles (17). Down five after three straight losses. Lane Johnson retired and Cam Jurgens was traded in the same week.
23. Browns (19). Down four. Eight sacks allowed to the Jets, and they have been outscored over a 3-2 start.
24. Colts (22). Down two. They lead the league in field-goal attempts because drives stall.
25. Buccaneers (29). Up four. Jalon Daniels’ first win, and 12th in DVOA.
26. Jets (26). Held. Eight sacks, three by rookie David Bailey.
27. Saints (24). Down three after a third straight home loss and 142 total yards.
28. Commanders (27). Down one. A tie that felt like a loss.
29. Cardinals (28). Down one. They have allowed 30 or more in four straight games and traded Harrison.
30. Chargers (30). Held. Thirteen turnovers, most in the league, and four rookies on the line.
31. Titans (31). Held. Three points and 187 yards against Houston.
32. Dolphins (32). Held. Willis threw two interceptions to a safety who said he had read his tell.

Offensive Lines

The Bills move to No. 1, the Chiefs and Bears climb, the Steelers enter, and the Raiders drop out. Each line is judged on the season: ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, sacks allowed and rushing, both measured against what its opponents’ defenses usually allow, and injuries that change who is available. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 5, rank in parentheses. Sack rate is sacks per dropback; the figure in parentheses is the difference from what the same opponents’ defenses averaged (negative is better). YPC in parentheses is the difference from what those defenses allowed (positive is better). Opponent averages are from CBS Sports team stats and include each opponent’s game against that team.

• Bills: the best run game against expectation in the league, and second in both win rates, against a schedule of pass rushes tougher than average. Spencer Brown, 91% in pass block win rate, hurt his back Monday.
• 49ers: three sacks allowed all season, all of them in Seattle. The run game is above average rather than dominant, which is the gap to Buffalo.
• Chiefs: third in run block win rate and 5.5 yards a carry, with four games played.
• Bears: fourth in pass block win rate against one of the tougher pass-rush schedules. The four sacks at Green Bay came with backup quarterbacks.
• Steelers: in on balance, eighth and ninth in the win rates, after allowing five sacks in Cleveland in Week 4.
• Lions: third in pass block, but 22nd in run block and slightly below expectation on the ground.
• Out: Raiders. First in pass block win rate, but 3.0 yards a carry is a full yard below what their opponents allow, against the easiest pass rushes anyone has faced.
• First out: Patriots (seventh on the numbers; left tackle Will Campbell’s knee injury keeps them out), Falcons, Raiders.
• Charting against results: Ravens (13th; 208 rushing yards in Atlanta, but 7.4% sack rate) and Packers (last in pass block win rate, yet a sack rate better than their opponents allow).
• Watch in Week 6: Brown’s back at Las Vegas; Campbell’s status against the Jets’ eight-sack front; Cam Jurgens’ debut at center for Baltimore.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Defensive Lines

The Texans, Lions and Chargers enter, and the Rams, Ravens and Patriots drop out. The same four measures apply: pass rush and run stop win rates, sacks against what opponents’ lines usually allow, and run defense against what those offenses usually gain, with injuries on top. FTN’s public listing has total DVOA only this week, so defensive DVOA is held for next week.

Sack rate is sacks per opponent dropback; in parentheses, the difference from what the same opponents’ lines allowed (positive is better). YPC allowed in parentheses is the difference from what those offenses gained (negative is better).

• Texans: the biggest sack rate above expectation in the league, and the second-best run defense against expectation. Will Anderson Jr. had three sacks in Tennessee. Their win rates lag the results.
• Lions: third in pass rush win rate, and sacking quarterbacks well above what their lines allow. Detroit’s poor scoring defense has been the secondary, not the front.
• Falcons: fourth and seventh in the win rates, though the sacks lag. Jalon Walker (ACL) and James Pearce Jr. (suspension) are out, and Za’Darius Smith was in the concussion protocol.
• Chargers: first in run stop win rate and above expectation on sacks, on an 0-5 team. Bud Dupree left Week 5 with a neck injury.
• 49ers: down two. Even after five sacks in Seattle, their season sack rate is only about what their opponents’ lines usually allow. Nick Bosa’s calf is the injury to watch.
• Broncos: a sack rate two points above expectation, but run defense slightly below; held at eighth.
• Out: Rams. Twelfth on the numbers. Myles Garrett is on injured reserve and not expected to start practicing this week.
• Out: Ravens. Tenth, and exactly at expectation on sacks without Trey Hendrickson.
• Out: Patriots. Thirteenth, 25th in run stop win rate.
• First out: Browns (seventh on the numbers, but Mason Graham is week to week and Mike Hall Jr. was inactive), Jaguars (the best run defense in yards per carry, 31st in run stop win rate), Jets.
• Giants: 22nd on the numbers. Not restored on win rate alone.
• Scheme caveat: Minnesota blitzes on 68% of dropbacks, so some of its pressure is the coordinator’s.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Win Totals

The Patriots move into the AFC field and the Raiders drop out of it; Dallas keeps the NFC East at 9-8. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 78 wins and that tie banked through Week 5. Kansas City, first team out in August, is still the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

• AFC seeds: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, Ravens; wild cards Broncos, Bengals, Patriots; first out, Steelers.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys; wild cards Seahawks, then two of the Lions, Bears and Rams; first out, the third of those.
• Ties we could not project: Buffalo and Jacksonville; the three AFC wild cards; the Lions, Bears and Rams.

What moved:

• Up: Buccaneers +2 (first win, 12th in DVOA, Baker Mayfield due back); Vikings, Patriots, Lions, Packers, Steelers and Texans +1.
• Down: Raiders -2 (two straight losses, 25th in DVOA); Cowboys, Eagles, Bears, Browns, Rams, Falcons and Saints -1.
• Eagles 8-9: the line lost Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens in one week, and the offense has the most three-and-outs in the league (ESPN).
• Falcons 8-9: depends on Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs; FTN projects 8.1 wins.
• For comparison, FTN’s simulation gives Dallas a 37.2% chance at the NFC East and Carolina 46.1% in the South (FTN playoff odds).

Calls most likely to need moving after Week 6:

• Cowboys 9-8 at Green Bay (8-9), with the Giants hosting the Saints and the Eagles hosting Carolina.
• Bears 10-7 at Atlanta (8-9), with Caleb Williams and Penix both uncertain.
• Seahawks 11-6 at Denver (10-7) on a short week.
• Patriots 10-7 against the Jets, and Raiders 8-9 against Buffalo.
• Texans 7-10 against the Jaguars (12-5) in London.

Week 6 Preview

The line and the model split on three games, all with a road team favored by ESPN and the home team by 1.5 points; we took the line twice (Giants, Packers) and the model once (Panthers). The Bengals, Dolphins, Vikings and Lions are on bye.

Seahawks at Broncos (Thursday)

Line: Seahawks -3, 40.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 52.1%

Key to the Game: Both teams played Sunday. Seattle’s backfield has lost two more fumbles and won’t have Zach Charbonnet. Denver’s offense has needed its defense to set up short fields, and the Broncos are still without Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss.

Our Pick: Seahawks. The better defense on a short week, though Sam Darnold’s interceptions make this close.

Texans vs. Jaguars (London)

Line: Jaguars -3, 42.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 58.8%

Key to the Game: Jacksonville’s red zone after going 0 for 3 against the Eagles, against a Houston defense with DeMeco Ryans calling it again. Left tackle Anton Harrison was carted off in London. Marvin Harrison Jr. could debut for Houston, and David Montgomery hurt his groin.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Bears at Falcons

Line: Bears -3, 49.5 · ESPN: Bears 60.1%

Key to the Game: Two quarterbacks: Caleb Williams is back at practice from his hamstring, and Michael Penix Jr. is hurt in his ribs. Atlanta’s run defense was the league’s best until Baltimore ran for 208 yards.

Our Pick: Bears. The pick assumes Williams plays and Penix doesn’t; reverse either and this flips.

Ravens at Browns

Line: Ravens -4.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Ravens 65.8%

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and Cam Jurgens’ debut at center against a Cleveland front with Jared Verse and possibly Mason Graham. The Browns allowed eight sacks in New York and may be without right tackle Tytus Howard and receiver KC Concepcion.

Our Pick: Ravens.

Titans at Colts

Line: Colts -7, 44.5 · ESPN: Colts 72%

Key to the Game: A Tennessee offense averaging 10.4 points against an Indianapolis offense that settles for field goals. The Colts lead the league in field-goal attempts.

Our Pick: Colts.

Jets at Patriots

Line: Patriots -7, 43.5 · ESPN: Patriots 78.9%

Key to the Game: David Bailey and an eight-sack Jets front against a New England line that may be without left tackle Will Campbell. A.J. Brown could return for the Patriots, whose cornerback room is down to a few healthy players.

Our Pick: Patriots.

Saints at Giants

Line: Giants -1.5, 45.5 · ESPN: Saints 54.1%

Key to the Game: A Giants run defense allowing 5.19 yards a carry, 30th in the league, against a Saints offense held to 142 yards. New York’s kicking cost it a win in Washington, and Tyler Shough is playing with a hurt non-throwing hand.

Our Pick: Giants. The line over the model: the Saints have lost three straight and rank 30th in DVOA.

Panthers at Eagles

Line: Eagles -1.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Panthers 50.5%

Key to the Game: Carolina’s top-ranked passing offense against an Eagles defense that has worn down in fourth quarters, behind an offense with the most three-and-outs in the league. The Panthers start two backup cornerbacks, but Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton are due back from the bye.

Our Pick: Panthers. The model over the line: Philadelphia has lost three straight and two starting linemen in a week.

Steelers at Buccaneers

Line: Steelers -3, 40.5 · ESPN: Steelers 59.4%

Key to the Game: Bucky Irving and a Tampa Bay run game that just gained 241 yards, against Pittsburgh’s run defense. Baker Mayfield is not expected back until Week 7 at the earliest.

Our Pick: Steelers.

Cardinals at Rams

Line: Rams -12.5, 52.5 · ESPN: Rams 87.1%

Key to the Game: Arizona allows a league-worst 8.5 net yards per pass attempt. The Rams’ kicking game is the one thing that has cost them close games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Chargers at Chiefs

Line: Chiefs -8.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 74.3%

Key to the Game: A Kansas City pass rush that pressures without finishing, against a Chargers line of four rookies. Justin Herbert has turned the ball over in five straight games.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Bills at Raiders

Line: Bills -6, 52.5 · ESPN: Bills 69.7%

Key to the Game: A Raiders run game that gained 38 yards in New England, against a Buffalo defense thin at cornerback. Right tackle Spencer Brown hurt his back Monday.

Our Pick: Bills.

Cowboys at Packers (Sunday night)

Line: Packers -1.5, 52.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 52.1%

Key to the Game: Jordan Love’s deep ball against a Dallas defense allowing 72.3% completions and last against the run. Micah Parsons won’t play, and CeeDee Lamb left Thursday with a quadriceps injury.

Our Pick: Packers. The line over the model: Dallas’ defense has given us no reason to trust it on the road.

Commanders at 49ers (Monday)

Line: 49ers -7.5, 50.5 · ESPN: 49ers 82.6%

Key to the Game: Jayden Daniels’ scrambling against a 49ers defense that just sacked Sam Darnold five times, and a Washington defense that has allowed 20 or more second-half points in four straight games. Deebo Samuel hurt his hamstring in Seattle.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

Four head coaches blamed themselves. Nick Sirianni (the London kickoff), Jim Harbaugh (the fourth-and-1), Sean McVay (a conservative third-down call before the blocked field goal) and Dan Quinn (the overtime clock) all took the loss, or the tie, on themselves. Three of the four games were decided by three points or fewer.

Special teams decided four games. A 53-yard kickoff return and a 57-yard field goal in London, a fumbled punt snap in New Jersey, a blocked field goal in Los Angeles, and a 2-of-5 kicking day in Washington. Green Bay’s Trey Smack also missed two field goals and an extra point in a 24-point win.

Two head coaches took back the play calls, and both won. Sean Payton took Denver’s offense back from Davis Webb, and DeMeco Ryans took Houston’s defense back from Matt Burke. The Texans held Tennessee to 187 yards. Denver’s offense looked much as it had under Webb (Ringer Staff), and Seattle arrives Thursday.

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Three teams are unbeaten after four weeks, and they got there three different ways. San Francisco has not allowed a sack all season, Kansas City has the league’s leading rusher in Kenneth Walker III, and Minnesota has scored one offensive touchdown since Week 1.

Eleven of the 16 games finished within one score, per NFL.com. Three were fourth-quarter comebacks by teams facing 1-3: the Rams in Philadelphia, the Cowboys in Houston and the Patriots in Buffalo. Houston, Tampa Bay, the Chargers, Tennessee and Miami are 0-4.

There were injuries to some of the biggest names. Lamar Jackson (ankle), Ja’Marr Chase (concussion), Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Patrick Surtain II (ankle) all left games, and Washington lost a second quarterback in three weeks.

Week 4 Review

Each game lists the line, our pick, what we expected to decide it and what did. Lines are DraftKings from late in the week, via ESPN’s Week 4 preview, with our published line in parentheses where it moved. [LINE TK] marks a kickoff line we don’t have.

Thursday

Browns 27, Steelers 24

Deshaun Watson led a go-ahead fourth-quarter drive for the third straight week, and Andre Szmyt’s career-long 56-yard field goal won it with 10 seconds left. Cleveland led 21-7 late in the first half before Pittsburgh tied it at 24 with 1:44 to play.

The Browns sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and hit him 10 times. Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions, the second on a Hail Mary. Cleveland is 3-1 for the first time since 2001.

Steelers -2.5 when we published), total 37.5. ESPN had Pittsburgh at 55.4%. Our Pick: Steelers.

Expected: Pittsburgh’s rebuilt right side against Cleveland’s disguised pressure and Mason Graham. What decided it: The pressure, without Graham, who left in the first quarter with a knee injury. Mike McCarthy described five-man pressure with man coverage from the start, and Pittsburgh’s protection never solved it.

London

Colts 30, Commanders 13

Washington led 6-0 when Marcus Mariota was sacked on third down and left with a right knee injury. Dan Quinn said it looks like an MCL. Seventh-round rookie Athan Kaliakmanis played the rest and went 15 of 33 with a 47-yard touchdown and an interception.

Jonathan Taylor ran for 95 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts won despite two Daniel Jones turnovers and 143 passing yards. Jayden Daniels (elbow) and Terry McLaurin (hamstring) were inactive.

Colts -3.5 late in the week (-3 when we published), total 47.5. ESPN had Indianapolis at 53.9%. Our Pick: Colts.

Expected: Whether Daniels would play, and whether Washington could score without takeaways. What decided it: Daniels didn’t play, and Washington was on its third quarterback after two drives. The Commanders settled for field goals on two red-zone trips before the injury and scored once after it.

Sunday Early

Patriots 29, Bills 26

Drake Maye had two first-half turnovers, then threw three touchdown passes. The last was a one-handed catch by Efton Chism III with 1:50 left, at the end of a 73-yard drive that began with New England down five.

Josh Allen’s deep throw for Joshua Palmer was intercepted by Craig Woodson on the next drive. Buffalo blitzed Maye 15 times, and he went 9 of 14 for 118 yards and all three touchdowns against it, per Bill Barnwell of ESPN. Mike Vrabel went for it twice on fourth down in field-goal range, and both drives ended in touchdowns.

Bills -6.5 late in the week (-7 when we published), total 48.5. ESPN had Buffalo at 71%. Our Pick: Bills.

Expected: Maye’s turnovers without A.J. Brown. What decided it: Maye had two turnovers and won anyway, because Allen had the one that mattered. New England played without Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore, and Buffalo lost DJ Moore and Ed Oliver during the game.

Bears 23, Jets 12

Chicago ran 89 plays to New York’s 32, held the ball for nearly 43 minutes and did not punt. Its 34 first downs outnumbered the Jets’ plays, which had not happened in the NFL since 1999.

Kyle Monangai carried 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns. Tyson Bagent threw for a career-high 268 yards after Case Keenum took a ceremonial first snap. The Jets went 0 for 7 on third down, though Minkah Fitzpatrick ended their record 20-game interception drought.

Bears -3.5 late in the week (-3 when we published), total 43.5 (42.5 when we published). ESPN had Chicago at 66.2%. Our Pick: Bears.

Expected: Keenum or Bagent without left tackle Braxton Jones, and Geno Smith’s form. What decided it: Neither quarterback question. Chicago ran for 232 yards, per CBS Sports’ Week 4 grades, and Smith had the ball for 17 minutes.

Jaguars 22, Bengals 17

Jacksonville stopped Chase Brown a yard short on fourth-and-10 with 50 seconds left. Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards but had two interceptions, one returned 45 yards to set up a touchdown and one in the red zone.

Trevor Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 227 yards and beat Cincinnati for the first time in four tries. The Bengals lost Ja’Marr Chase to a concussion in the second quarter and ran for 23 yards. The officials called 24 penalties for 244 yards.

Bengals -2.5, total 51.5. ESPN had Jacksonville at 55%. Our Pick: Jaguars.

Expected: DVOA’s No. 2 team against a defense that had just allowed 411 yards. What decided it: Jacksonville’s defense, not Cincinnati’s. The Jaguars gave up 428 passing yards and still made two red-zone stops, and their interception streak reached nine games, a franchise record.

Giants 36, Cardinals 24

Arizona led 14-3 after 12 minutes and gained 138 yards the rest of the way. Jameis Winston threw three touchdown passes and two interceptions, and Malik Nabers caught six passes for 112 yards.

Jacoby Brissett threw three interceptions. Deonte Banks returned the last one 98 yards for a touchdown on the final play. The Giants are alone in first place in the NFC East.

Cardinals -2.5 late in the week (-1.5 when we published), total 44.5. ESPN had Arizona at 55.1%. Our Pick: Cardinals.

Expected: The Giants’ defense without Brian Burns. What decided it: That defense. It intercepted Brissett three times, got a first career interception from rookie Arvell Reese, and ended a game with a red-zone interception for the second straight week.

Rams 24, Eagles 20

Philadelphia led 20-10 with fourth-and-goal at the 2 midway through the fourth quarter, went for it and threw incomplete. The Rams then drove 98 and 79 yards for Kyren Williams touchdowns, the second with 1:10 left.

The Eagles went 0 for 12 on third down and gained 172 yards. They played without DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Lane Johnson, then lost Saquon Barkley to a hamstring injury in the first quarter. Matthew Stafford threw two more interceptions and has six.

Rams -3 late in the week (-1.5 when we published), total 43.5 (46.5 when we published). ESPN had the Rams at 56.6%. Our Pick: Rams.

Expected: Puka Nacua’s return, and an Eagles team that was 22nd in DVOA with no takeaways. What decided it: Nacua caught nine passes for 125 yards, most of it after halftime. The Eagles got their first two takeaways and still lost, because the Rams blitzed Jalen Hurts on half his dropbacks and he went 5 of 16 against it, per Barnwell.

Packers 17, Buccaneers 14

Jordan Love threw two short touchdown passes, and Green Bay survived two fourth-quarter turnovers deep in Tampa Bay territory. Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie making his first start, threw two interceptions that became 10 Packers points.

Love was hit twice after taking 31 hits in three games, with Laken Tomlinson the fourth player to start at left guard. Todd Bowles passed up a 65-yard field goal try on the Buccaneers’ last possession. Green Bay lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper to an Achilles injury.

Packers -3.5, total 38.5 (39.5 when we published). ESPN had Tampa Bay at 53.9%. Our Pick: Packers.

Expected: Daniels behind a line that had allowed six sacks. What decided it: Daniels’ two interceptions. The surprise was the other line: Green Bay’s, last in pass block win rate, kept Love clean.

Ravens 24, Titans 18

Baltimore led 24-7 at halftime on Lamar Jackson’s 222 yards and two touchdown passes, plus Tyler Loop’s 64-yard field goal on the last play of the half. Jackson hurt his left ankle on the snap before the kick and did not return.

Tyler Huntley went 8 of 9 for 63 yards, and the Ravens did not score again. Tennessee was stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 2, lost a Carnell Tate fumble and scored late to get within six. Baltimore had 13 penalties for 131 yards.

Ravens -11.5, total 42.5 (43.5 when we published). ESPN had Baltimore at 83.3%. Our Pick: Ravens.

Expected: Baltimore’s center position, and whether it let Tennessee hang around. What decided it: The first half. The line question got worse: the Ravens are down to their fourth option at center and their third at right guard, per ESPN’s Jamison Hensley.

Cowboys 34, Texans 30

CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards, the last a 12-yard touchdown in the final minute. Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and went 8 of 11 on the 74-yard winning drive, per Barnwell.

Houston led 16-6 at halftime and 23-13 in the third quarter. Javonte Williams ran for three second-half touchdowns, and Kamari Lassiter gave up a 53-yard catch and two penalties on one drive. C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards, and Nico Collins returned with 118 yards and two touchdowns.

Texans -3 late in the week (-2.5 when we published), total 48.5 (47.5 when we published). ESPN had Dallas at 55.5%. Our Pick: Texans.

Expected: Dallas’ travel from Rio, and DVOA saying Houston was better than 0-3. What decided it: Houston’s coverage. Every one of Lamb’s catches came against zone, per Barnwell. The Texans press on 25% of snaps after 56% last season, per ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime.

Sunday Late

Vikings 15, Dolphins 10

Will Reichard kicked five field goals, and Minnesota is 4-0 without an offensive touchdown in its last two games. T.J. Hockenson caught 13 passes for 119 yards and slid short of the goal line on the last one to run out the clock.

Miami had 76 yards at halftime, then got a 53-yard Ollie Gordon run and a Gordon touchdown to make it 12-10. A 68-yard Malik Willis touchdown pass was wiped out by an illegal-touching penalty. The Vikings held the ball for 14 of the final 15 minutes.

Vikings -10.5 late in the week (-10 when we published), total 38.5. ESPN had Minnesota at 82.4%. Our Pick: Vikings.

Expected: Minnesota’s pass rush against Willis, without De’Von Achane. What decided it: That, barely. Willis went 9 of 17 for 85 yards and lost a fumble on one of Dallas Turner’s two sacks. Kyler Murray was sacked four times by a defense that had no sacks all season.

Chiefs 30, Raiders 27

Kenneth Walker III ran for 177 yards and two touchdowns, including a 76-yard run that set up Kansas City’s first lead. Las Vegas led 19-17 with 4:53 left. Tyquan Thornton’s 55-yard catch set up Walker’s go-ahead score, and a fumbled kickoff handed Walker another.

Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns and was intercepted near midfield at the end. Thornton dislocated his left ankle on the long catch, and Rashee Rice left with a hamstring injury.

Chiefs -4.5 late in the week (-5.5 when we published), total 47.5. ESPN had Kansas City at 70.2%. Our Pick: Chiefs.

Expected: Las Vegas’ takeaways and sacks against Walker and Patrick Mahomes. What decided it: Walker, and a takeaway going the other way. The Raiders ran for 72 yards at 2.8 a carry. Klint Kubiak also took a field goal off the board for a fourth-and-2 that failed, per the Ringer Staff.

49ers 24, Broncos 14

San Francisco had three points on its first seven possessions, then scored touchdowns on three straight after Marvin Mims Jr. fumbled a punt return. George Kittle’s 56-yard touchdown on a screen with 2:15 left answered Denver’s only touchdown.

Brock Purdy went 19 of 30 for 218 yards with no sacks and no turnovers. Denver finished without both starting cornerbacks, Patrick Surtain II (ankle) and Riley Moss (ribs).

49ers -3, total 47.5 (46.5 when we published). ESPN had San Francisco at 77.6%. Our Pick: 49ers.

Expected: San Francisco’s injuries against Denver’s slow starts, with the 49ers facing the real opponent our rankings discount was waiting for. What decided it: Denver’s slow start held: three first-half points, and 13 in four first halves. The 49ers passed the test without Nick Bosa, and the discount is gone.

Seahawks 30, Chargers 23

Both teams threw an interception on their first play from scrimmage. Seattle led 27-6 in the third quarter and sealed it when Justin Herbert was sacked and fumbled in the final two minutes.

Herbert threw two interceptions and was sacked four times, and Joe Alt left in the second quarter with a neck injury. The teams combined for 30 penalties and 280 yards. Seattle’s 150 penalty yards set a franchise record.

Seahawks -7 late in the week (-6.5 when we published), total 42.5 (43.5 when we published). ESPN had Seattle at 73.8%. Our Pick: Seahawks.

Expected: Seattle’s turnovers against a defense that had forced five. What decided it: The other team’s turnovers. Los Angeles gave the ball away four times, including a muffed punt that Seattle turned into a touchdown on the next play.

Sunday Night

Panthers 32, Lions 26

Bryce Young completed his first 11 passes and finished 29 of 41 for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards, both career highs, and Chuba Hubbard ran for 122 yards and two scores.

Jared Goff threw for 412 yards, but Detroit could not get a first down on its last drive, which started at its 13 with 2:12 left. Carolina played without Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, both starting cornerbacks and both starting tackles.

Lions -3.5, total 51.5 (50.5 when we published). ESPN had Detroit at 61.9%. Our Pick: Lions.

Expected: Carolina without Coker, and how much Detroit got from Jahmyr Gibbs. What decided it: Young had the best EPA per dropback of any quarterback in Week 4, per the Ringer Staff, and Gibbs was held to 77 yards from scrimmage.

Monday Night

Falcons 45, Saints 24

Bijan Robinson scored from 59 yards on Atlanta’s third play and finished with 145 yards and two touchdowns. Brian Robinson Jr. added three short touchdowns, and the Falcons outrushed New Orleans 205 to 50.

Michael Penix Jr. went 15 of 20 for 223 yards and a touchdown. Atlanta has scored 80 points in two games since he returned. The Saints missed a field goal and lost a fumble at their own 22 while falling behind 14-0.

Saints -2.5, total 47.5 (48.5 when we published). ESPN had New Orleans at 62.6%. Our Pick: Saints.

Expected: Penix’s second game against the Saints’ turnovers. What decided it: The run game. Penix was clean, the turnover that mattered was New Orleans’, and the Saints have allowed almost 600 rushing yards in four games, per Fox Sports.

Power Rankings

San Francisco is first on all five lists, ours included. Pre is our preseason rank, and last week’s rank is in parentheses in each note. The outside columns are FTN’s DVOA, ESPN, NFL.com and Pete Prisco of CBS Sports. DVOA now uses 2026 opponent adjustments, at 40% strength.

1. 49ers (2). They beat a real opponent without Nick Bosa, which was the test we were waiting on. FTN has them 11th among all teams through four games since 1977.

2. Chiefs (3). Kenneth Walker III leads the league with 537 rushing yards, per ESPN. The defense has no sacks in three straight games, and Tyquan Thornton and Rashee Rice were hurt going into the bye.

3. Seahawks (4). First in pass rush win rate and in defensive DVOA. FTN also says they have played one of the three easiest schedules and have the hardest one left, starting with San Francisco.

4. Jaguars (6). Second in DVOA and 11-1 in their last 12 regular-season games. We keep them a spot behind Seattle for one more week.

5. Bills (1). Seven turnovers in two weeks and a defense that is 26th in DVOA. The offense is still second.

6. Ravens (5). Lamar Jackson is day-to-day with a left ankle injury, and the line is on its fourth center. Thirteen penalties nearly let Tennessee back in.

7. Rams (9). FTN gave them a 96% post-game win expectancy in a game they trailed by 10 midway through the fourth quarter. Their special teams are last in DVOA, and Matthew Stafford has six interceptions.

8. Bears (11). Three wins with three quarterbacks, the league’s best rushing total, and a defense that is sixth in DVOA after FTN projected it last.

9. Vikings (8). They are 4-0 and 10th in DVOA: 31st on offense, second on defense, first on special teams. FTN’s list of the weakest 4-0 teams does include two champions.

10. Broncos (7). The hardest schedule so far, per FTN, and 13 first-half points in four games. Both starting cornerbacks left Sunday’s game.

11. Raiders (12). They lost by three to Kansas City and moved up a spot. The caution is FTN’s: no team has played an easier schedule.

12. Cowboys (15). Sixth on offense and last on defense in DVOA. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb won a game in which the defense allowed 30.

13. Bengals (10). Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards and the run game added 23. Ja’Marr Chase has to clear the concussion protocol.

14. Lions (13). They have allowed at least 30 points in every game, per ESPN, and are 30th in defensive DVOA. The pass rush is fourth in win rate, so the front is not the problem.

15. Panthers (21). The biggest rise on the board. They are ninth in DVOA, Bryce Young is playing the best football of his career without either starting tackle, and the bye should bring both back.

16. Patriots (24). Drake Maye’s first good game of the season came on the road, without Christian Gonzalez or Christian Barmore. He still leads the league with nine turnovers, per ESPN.

17. Eagles (14). No second-half points in two weeks and 0 for 12 on third down. Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are all hurt, and Jacksonville is next, in London.

18. Falcons (25). Eighty points in two games with Michael Penix Jr., and third in pass rush win rate. Baltimore, Chicago and San Francisco all visit Atlanta next, per NFL.com.

19. Browns (18). They are 3-1 and still 24th in DVOA, so three teams pass them. Deshaun Watson has three straight fourth-quarter go-ahead drives; Mason Graham’s knee is the concern.

20. Giants (22). First place in the NFC East and 31st in ESPN’s FPI. The defense has ended two straight games with red-zone interceptions.

21. Steelers (16). They lost in Cleveland, lost Derrick Harmon for a few weeks and traded Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas. The pass rush is 25th in win rate.

22. Colts (23). They are 2-2 with the league’s second-lowest yards per play, per ESPN. Daniel Jones has turned the ball over in every game.

23. Texans (20). They are 0-4 and 17th in DVOA, the third-best 0-4 team since 1977 by FTN’s count. The pass defense has fallen from fifth to 28th in yards allowed, per ESPN.

24. Saints (17). We had them winning the NFC South. They are 1-3 and 30th in DVOA, and they just allowed 205 rushing yards at home.

25. Packers (27). Last in rushing, with no rushing touchdown, per ESPN. Jordan Love was hit only twice in Tampa, but Edgerrin Cooper is out for the season and the Bears are next.

26. Jets (19). Thirty-two plays in Chicago, and three straight losses since the opener.

27. Commanders (26). They are down to their third quarterback, and ESPN reports optimism about Jayden Daniels for Week 6, not Week 5.

28. Cardinals (28). Three straight losses with at least 30 points allowed in each, per CBS Sports. DVOA still has them 19th.

29. Buccaneers (30). All four losses are by one score, and FTN has them 18th. Baker Mayfield is out three to six weeks, per ESPN.

30. Chargers (29). Last in offensive DVOA and 30th in pass block win rate, and Joe Alt is hurt. Justin Herbert has six interceptions.

31. Titans (31). Three straight losses by six points or fewer, per CBS Sports. Cam Ward topped 200 yards for the first time, and rookie Carnell Tate had 145.

32. Dolphins (32). Their four opponents are a combined 15-1. The defense got its first four sacks of the season in Minnesota.

Projected Win Totals

Sixty-four wins are banked through four weeks, and the other 208 are projected here; the totals sum to 272. The Week 4 column is what we published last week.