Orioles Prospect ETAs: Position Players, Pre-2021 Edition

Note: this story is the first in a two-part series of articles looking at Orioles prospect ETAs. Position players are featured here, with pitchers to follow in a separate piece.

In their ongoing rebuild, the Baltimore Orioles continue to stockpile minor-league talent. The Orioles’ future at the major-league level partially hinges on these players, as they look to move their top prospects up the organizational ladder.

Amid the rebuilding process, one question from fans continues to pop up: When will the Orioles start contending? The answer to that question depends on several factors, including how the Orioles acquire talent, develop players in the farm system, promote young talent to the majors and work towards continual improvement, and—at some point further down the line—bolster their roster with free agents and trade acquisitions.

Although it is just one part of that equation, one way to get a sense of the Orioles’ timetable for contention is to look at estimated times of arrival (ETAs) for individual prospects. I am doing just that in a two-part series, which begins with position players in this article and will be followed by pitchers in a story next week.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

To be included in this series, players must check off several boxes. The most obvious is to have not already debuted in the major leagues, so the likes of Ryan Mountcastle, Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, and Bruce Zimmermann are not featured, even though they are still technically prospects. Players also must have appeared on a recent Top-30 prospect list for the Orioles, whether it’s in Baltimore Sports and Life’s rankings (last updated in July, with an early 2021 revision in the works) or in rankings from outlets such as FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline, or Baseball America.

Within this series, you will find ETAs for select prospects, along with reports breaking down their strengths and biggest question marks. At this time, there are still uncertainties about whether there will be some semblance of a traditional Minor League Baseball season in 2021, but I am writing this with the idea that players will see at least a few months of competitive game action.

I outlined potential ETAs for catcher Adley Rutchsman, outfielder Yusniel Diaz, and infielder Rylan Bannon in recent stories, so I will not rehash their timetables here. My BSL colleague and On the Verge co-host Bob Phelean did an excellent job projecting minor-league Opening Day rosters in a recent story, giving us a good starting point for guessing where these players will start next season.

Keep in mind this story makes no attempt to project the probability of injuries that could delay arrival to the majors, and that it is premature to speculate whether any of these players will be traded while still in the minor leagues. Also, Rule-5 eligibly information mentioned in this story comes from player pages at FanGraphs.

Heston Kjerstad, right fielder

Chosen out of Arkansas with the number-two overall selection in the 2020 Draft, Kjerstad enters the Orioles’ farm system as arguably its best power hitter and one of its best left-handed hitters. He was considered by many to be the best left-handed power hitter in last year’s draft class, and most evaluators expect that tool to be his calling card as a professional. Also, he looks to have the basic skills needed to stick in the outfield.

While he provides plenty of power, Kjerstad also has a propensity to strike out at a high rate. However, that is not an unusual problem in an era of high strikeout totals, and he could offset this by drawing more walks and improving his pitch recognition—an area he showed improvement in before the 2020 college baseball season ended early because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Regardless of where he is assigned to start the 2021 season, Kjerstad should hit his way up the minors and can be reasonably expected to begin 2022 in Double-A. That could line hm up for an MLB debut in early 2023. If the Orioles are contending in 2022, however, they might look at bringing Kjerstad up over the summer if they need to bolster their offense.

Current ETA: 2023

Gunnar Henderson, shortstop

Even with little professional experience under his belt, Henderson draws considerable praise as a prospect—thanks to a left-handed stroke that gives him good power projection, along with reportedly strong showings at the Orioles’ alternate training site over the summer and the fall instructional league in Sarasota. Though there are questions about whether Henderson’s size will eventually force him off shortstop (he’s listed at 6’3”, 195 lbs.), there is widespread belief that his arm strength would allow him to make a smooth transition to third base if he does change positions.

That makes Henderson a consensus Top-10 prospect in the system, and one that could start cracking Top-100 overall lists in the next year or two. However, the 19-year-old still has only appeared in 29 games at the professional level, leaving little in the way of stats to inform expectations for his future. That means that a debut as late as 2024 cannot be ruled out. However, the Orioles were as aggressive as they could realistically be with Henderson in 2020, and his performance could propel him to Baltimore before 2024.

Current ETA: Mid-2023 or early 2024

Jordan Westburg, shortstop

Like Kjerstad, Westburg is a prospect who leveraged a strong collegiate career in the SEC into a high draft selection last June, as he was taken out of Mississippi State with the 30^th-overall pick. Reports about his time at instructs over the fall were positive, and he is already considered one of the most athletic prospects in the farm system.

As with Henderson, however, there are questions about whether the 6’3” 203 lb. Westburg remains at shortstop, or if his size eventually forces him to another position. There are also concerns that his raw power will not carry over to games, and that his tendency to strikeout in high numbers and his pull-happy plate approach will lower his ceiling offensively. If he improves his overall plate approach, Westburg might profile as a player capable of putting up 15-20 home runs at his peak while providing additional value with his speed. If that is the case, the Orioles could find themselves with a very solid middle infielder who moves through the minors quickly, or a player whose offensive production and arm strength allow him to be an everyday third baseman.

Current ETA: 2023

Terrin Vavra, second baseman/shortstop/centerfielder

Acquired as part of the package of prospects received from the Rockies for Mychal Givens in an August trade, Vavra enters the Orioles’ system as a player who is routinely praised for his overall plate approach. His ability to hit to all fields, control the strike zone, and draw walks was evident during his South Atlantic League MVP season at Low-A Ashville in 2019, when he batted .318/.409/.489 with 10 homers, a 13.7 BB%, and a 160 wRC+ over 453 plate appearances. While his ceiling is not as high as Henderson’s or Westburg’s, Vavra is a fundamentally sound player who could push for a major-league role in the near future.

Even in the absence of a minor-league season in 2020, the 23-year-old had plenty of development time at alternate training sites over the summer and fall instructs. After acquiring him, the Orioles worked Vavra out in centerfield, suggesting that they believe he could be at least a utility-type at the major-league level. Though Vavra is not currently on the 40-man roster (he is not Rule-5 eligible until next December), he could start the 2021 season in Triple-A, with the added versatility and a strong showing at the plate helping him reach Baltimore later in the year.

Current ETA: Mid-to-late 2021

Tyler Nevin, first baseman/third baseman/left fielder

Nevin has battled injuries since being drafted out of high school by the Rockies in 2015, but he has generally been productive when healthy. When he was acquired in the Givens trade, Orioles executive vice president Mike Elias noted that the organization liked Nevin’s batted-ball data at Double-A Hartford in 2019, perhaps indicating that they believe he has more power potential than what his numbers there (13 homers, .399 SLG in 130 games) suggest. He has been a patient hitter throughout his career, continuing that trend with a 12% BB rate at Hartford.

The Eastern League was a tough environment for hitters in 2019, so a move to Triple-A could help Nevin. His ability to tap into his raw power will determine his ceiling offensively, but his versatility in the field and the fact that he is already on the 40-man roster put him close to Baltimore. The Orioles’ plethora of first base/DH/outfield types will keep Nevin in the minors to start 2021, but do not be surprised to see him in the majors sometime after the All-Star Break.

Current ETA: Mid-to-late 2021

Adam Hall, second baseman/shortstop

Even with recent additions to the middle-infield depth in the minors like Westburg, Vavra, and Anthony Servideo (more on him shortly), Hall remains an intriguing prospect. During a solid 2019 as a 20-year-old at Low-A Delmarva, he batted .298/.385/.395 with 31 extra-base hits (5 homers) and a 133 wRC+. He also continued to impress with his speed, swiping 33 bags in 42 attempts, leaving few doubts that he is one of the best base runners in the system.

Still, there are questions about whether Hall will hit the ball hard enough to sustain consistent success at higher levels of the minors. He should get a chance to prove himself at Double-A this year and, with a solid season, could earn a 40-man roster spot prior to gaining Rule 5 Draft eligibility next December. Hall faces more competition in the system than he did this time last year, but he is still a consensus Top-30 prospect and might find himself closing in on the majors at some point in 2022.

Current ETA: Mid-to-late 2022

Anthony Servideo, shortstop/second baseman/outfielder

Servideo has one of the widest ranges of potential outcomes among Orioles prospects. If the improvements he showed at the plate during an abbreviated 2020 season at Ole Miss are a sign of things to come, he could combine an on-base oriented approach at the plate with excellent defense and solid speed to become an everyday shortstop at the major-league level. If his 2020 stats (.390/.575/.695 slash, 5 HR) prove to be an aberration and he comes back down to earth, however, he will have to hope that his glove work at multiple positions (he also logged time at second base and in the outfield at Ole Miss) and speed push him into a utility role in the majors.

The positive offensive trait Servideo showed through his collegiate career was his strike zone judgement, as he had a career 89/78 K/BB ratio. What remains to be seen, though, is whether his contact skills develop enough for him to become a regular in the majors. High-A looks like his starting level for 2021, and he could join Westburg and Kjerstad as 2020 draft picks who make an impact on the 2023 club.

Current ETA: 2023

Coby Mayo, third baseman

By selecting him in the fourth round last June and signing him with an above-slot bonus of $1.75 million, the Orioles showed their belief that the young Mayo’s raw power will allow him to become a consistent home run hitter. Listed at 6’5”, 215 lbs., Mayo impresses evaluators with his raw power and arm strength, tools that could allow him to hit the ground running as a professional.

Given that he is just days from turning 19, however, there are questions about how Mayo’s overall hit tool will develop in the minors. He is also far from certain to stick at third base because of his size, though his arm strength could play well enough in the outfield to prevent him from being limited to first base or DH. I will take a conservative approach for now by predicting a 2025 MLB debut, but Mayo could beat my current projection by a year or so if he overwhelms minor-league pitchers over the coming seasons.

Current ETA: 2025

Others Worth Noting

Ryan McKenna needs to show more at the plate to force his way into the Orioles’ crowded outfield, but his speed and defense might make him at least a serviceable reserve option in the majors at some point in the second half of 2021. The Orioles have a pair of 2019 draft outfield prospects in Kyle Stowers and Zach Watson who could push for roster spots as early as late 2022 or 2023, depending on how they perform in 2021 and beyond. (For more on Stowers and his intriguing raw power, check out this new story from BSL colleague and On the Verge co-host Nick Stevens.) Although there are questions about his unorthodox swing, centerfielder Hudson Haskin was successful during his collegiate career at Tulane. Like fellow 2020 draftees Kjerstad, Westburg, and Servideo, he could be in the mix for a major-league roster spot as early as 2023.

Looking for players that are not consensus Top-30 prospects, but could make an appearance before the 2021 MLB season ends? Catcher Brett Cumberland and second baseman/shortstop Mason McCoy both fit that profile. Cumberland will need to stay on the field and show that he is major-league ready behind the plate. He has posted solid walk rates when healthy, meaning that he could be a backup catcher who provides some value offensively. McCoy draws good reports for his defense but has other middle infielders ahead of him on the depth chart and needs to show that his improved offensive production over the 2019 season was not a fluke.